MLB Predictions — September 4, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ HOU	4 - 6	4 - 6	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 6-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ PHI	4 - 3	4 - 3	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 4-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ BAL	4 - 6	4 - 6	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 6-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ MIA	6 - 3	6 - 3	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 6-3	72%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ CLE	3 - 4	3 - 4	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ CLE	3 - 4	3 - 4	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 4-3	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ PIT	5 - 7	5 - 7	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 7-5	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ CIN	8 - 5	8 - 5	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 8-5	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ CHW	6 - 5	6 - 5	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 6-5	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ SD	6 - 3	6 - 3	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 6-3	64%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ SEA	5 - 6	5 - 6	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 6-5	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ NYM	4 - 5	4 - 5	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 5-4	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ COL	6 - 5	6 - 5	STL	STL	STL wins 6-5	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ TEX	3 - 4	3 - 4	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 4-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ KC	5 - 7	5 - 7	KC	KC	KC wins 7-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ LAD	4 - 5	4 - 5	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 5-4	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros

ARI 74-67 (4.45 RPG / 4.46 RA)

4 - 6

HOU 72-69 (4.53 RPG / 4.8 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 6-4 TARGET: ARI 4 - 6 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 58.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	5
HOU	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	6	11

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-10

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

ARI Season Quality

Record74-67

Win%0.525

Run Diff-1

RD/Game-0.007

HOU Season Quality

Record72-69

Win%0.511

Run Diff-38

RD/Game-0.270

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.029; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	136	490	124	0.253	9	47	0.360	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.263	0.359	0.354	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	137	511	123	0.241	19	61	0.337	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.181	0.268	0.358	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	110	396	118	0.298	11	67	0.376	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.316	0.389	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	119	475	119	0.251	21	67	0.316	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.247	0.324	0.421	OK
Lars Nootbaar	DH	22	67	15	0.224	3	11	0.333	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.274	0.367	0.519	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	131	457	107	0.234	21	65	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.187	0.240	0.309	OK
Max Kepler	LF	38	126	27	0.214	2	15	0.273	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.204	0.259	0.298	OK
Tim Tawa	1B	77	246	59	0.240	9	35	0.294	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.207	0.267	0.348	OK
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	71	227	62	0.273	3	22	0.336	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.258	0.313	0.387	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	4	4	3	7	0.156

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	90	360	100	0.278	17	46	0.332	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.238	0.279	0.421	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	138	493	157	0.318	37	94	0.436	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.265	0.386	0.480	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	133	482	122	0.253	18	75	0.354	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.243	0.336	0.390	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	113	438	107	0.244	15	43	0.308	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.223	0.283	0.400	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	26	100	18	0.180	3	12	0.248	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.211	0.271	0.336	OK
Christian Walker	1B	134	496	114	0.230	24	77	0.304	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.212	0.271	0.364	OK
Taylor Trammell	RF	76	211	44	0.209	7	20	0.289	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.213	0.287	0.364	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	71	264	68	0.258	10	32	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.248	0.272	0.411	OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.	LF	41	106	22	0.208	3	17	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.186	0.278	0.346	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	37	11	6	6	5	7	0.297

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Merrill Kelly	Starter	25	139.1	5.18	1.510	6.1	95	5.0	5	3	3	4	3	106	5.0	3	3
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	29	1.0	2	0
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	0.1	2	1	1	0	1	10	0.1	1	1
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	42.9	3.36	1.235	9.0	43	1.1	4	2	2	0	0	20	0.2	0	2

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristian Javier	Starter	13	43.5	6.62	1.678	8.7	42	4.1	5	4	4	3	3	94	4.1	3	4
Josh Hader	Closer	37	36.4	0.49	0.604	12.1	49	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Steven Okert	Setup Man	68	58.8	2.45	1.003	10.4	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	55	48.3	4.29	1.511	12.9	69	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	81.9	3.19	1.233	9.6	87	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	26	1.1	0	0
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	60	56.5	5.10	1.363	9.4	59	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

HOU wins 6-4

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

ATL 84-58 (4.65 RPG / 3.83 RA)

4 - 3

PHI 79-62 (4.49 RPG / 4.26 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 4-3 TARGET: ATL 4 - 3 PHI (ATL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	4	11
PHI	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record83-57

Win%0.593

Run Diff118

RD/Game0.843

PHI Season Quality

Record79-61

Win%0.564

Run Diff36

RD/Game0.257

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4464; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	86	326	80	0.245	14	39	0.346	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.270	0.349	0.428	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	116	452	125	0.277	22	69	0.357	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.286	0.350	0.457	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	139	528	136	0.258	21	68	0.314	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.241	0.294	0.385	OK
Matt Olson	1B	139	538	136	0.253	36	78	0.327	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.217	0.284	0.419	OK
Lane Thomas	LF	16	36	7	0.194	1	3	0.256	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.141	0.232	0.252	OK
Mauricio Dubón	CF	131	486	130	0.267	10	64	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.307	0.367	OK
Sean Murphy	C	18	62	15	0.242	3	8	0.288	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.315	0.359	0.599	OK
Austin Riley	3B	137	487	109	0.224	15	63	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.287	0.328	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	31	92	11	0.120	0	5	0.214	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.215	0.289	0.256	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	38	11	4	4	2	9	0.289

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	132	499	119	0.238	39	82	0.351	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.196	0.300	0.387	OK
Trea Turner	SS	132	552	133	0.241	17	52	0.292	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.200	0.251	0.290	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	138	487	134	0.275	27	80	0.395	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.308	0.430	0.528	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	26	107	30	0.280	2	11	0.297	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.267	0.299	0.353	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	131	492	121	0.246	14	76	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.247	0.308	0.372	OK
Edmundo Sosa	3B	69	202	48	0.238	7	40	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.286	0.466	OK
Bryan De La Cruz	LF	19	48	17	0.354	2	11	0.389	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.331	0.358	0.505	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	102	351	78	0.222	10	45	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.287	0.379	OK
Derek Hill	CF	35	97	26	0.268	5	18	0.297	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.178	0.211	0.287	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	3	3	1	6	0.229

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	24	142.6	2.08	1.010	11.2	177	6.1	6	2	2	0	6	98	6.1	6	2
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	50	48.9	2.94	1.227	9.6	52	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	64	53.3	2.70	0.957	12.5	74	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	6	1.0	0	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	49	55.3	2.60	1.230	12.7	78	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11	0.2	0	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	28	173.0	2.55	1.208	10.5	202	6.1	8	2	2	1	7	118	6.1	7	3
Jhoan Duran	Closer	51	49.4	1.28	1.012	12.6	69	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	54	47.8	3.20	1.067	12.4	66	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	46.9	4.41	1.471	10.9	57	0.2	3	2	2	0	0	17	0.2	0	1

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-3

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

BOS 77-65 (4.46 RPG / 3.91 RA)

4 - 6

BAL 69-73 (4.51 RPG / 4.66 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 6-4 TARGET: BOS 4 - 6 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
BAL	0	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	x	6	6

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed6.3

Run Diff-23

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff14

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

BOS Season Quality

Record76-65

Win%0.539

Run Diff78

RD/Game0.553

BAL Season Quality

Record69-72

Win%0.489

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.149

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2556; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	DH	35	131	35	0.267	3	7	0.377	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.288	0.382	0.473	OK
Mickey Gasper	1B	48	148	41	0.277	7	21	0.365	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.285	0.365	0.538	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	16	57	11	0.193	3	6	0.270	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.239	0.293	0.485	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	136	520	135	0.260	23	70	0.337	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.276	0.340	0.461	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	45	165	44	0.267	4	15	0.365	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.262	0.351	0.497	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	129	440	107	0.243	12	59	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.227	0.304	0.316	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	130	494	100	0.202	19	62	0.260	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.178	0.227	0.338	OK
Trevor Story	SS	45	181	41	0.227	3	23	0.260	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.277	0.370	OK
Eli White	CF	16	38	10	0.263	0	6	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.241	0.282	0.405	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	4	4	4	4	6	0.129

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Blaze Alexander	RF	76	238	74	0.311	4	30	0.363	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.304	0.347	0.408	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	106	336	75	0.223	19	55	0.288	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.293	0.453	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	138	517	140	0.271	33	94	0.361	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.252	0.345	0.485	OK
Luis Robert Jr.	CF	2	8	2	0.250	1	3	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.220	0.285	0.421	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	136	546	120	0.220	21	56	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.233	0.301	0.429	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	38	126	32	0.254	7	28	0.301	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.268	0.313	0.521	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	84	272	64	0.235	7	28	0.307	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.156	0.226	0.278	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	21	55	5	0.091	0	0	0.194	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.142	0.209	0.198	OK
Leody Taveras	LF	117	385	84	0.218	8	52	0.289	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.203	0.280	0.335	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	29	6	6	6	4	4	0.207

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ranger Suarez	Starter	24	120.4	3.74	1.271	8.9	119	5.0	2	3	3	2	2	85	5.0	2	3
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	47	46.2	1.56	1.082	12.1	62	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Erik Miller	Setup Man	12	12.1	0.74	1.074	16.4	22	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	23	1.0	0	2
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	47	45.3	1.99	0.861	10.3	52	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Baz	Starter	27	152.1	4.14	1.394	8.2	139	5.2	4	4	4	1	6	99	5.2	6	4
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	50	39.8	3.62	1.533	8.4	37	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	24	1.0	0	0
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	65	52.2	2.93	1.015	10.5	61	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	35.8	3.02	1.117	10.3	41	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	16.1	2.80	1.677	11.2	20	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

BAL wins 6-4

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins

CHC 79-62 (5.34 RPG / 4.4 RA)

6 - 3

MIA 71-70 (4.36 RPG / 4.26 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 6-3 TARGET: CHC 6 - 3 MIA (CHC) Confidence: 72.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	1	0	1	0	2	0	2	0	0	6	11
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	4

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs6.9

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CHC Season Quality

Record79-62

Win%0.560

Run Diff133

RD/Game0.943

MIA Season Quality

Record71-70

Win%0.504

Run Diff14

RD/Game0.099

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7467; margin adjustment: -0.3136; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	139	535	151	0.282	39	93	0.377	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.268	0.340	0.629	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	122	464	128	0.276	24	80	0.372	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.256	0.354	0.458	OK
Michael Busch	1B	137	523	124	0.237	16	66	0.345	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.184	0.284	0.337	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	137	546	143	0.262	24	81	0.348	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.285	0.349	0.574	OK
Ian Happ	LF	131	479	106	0.221	23	61	0.324	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.233	0.317	0.414	OK
Nico Hoerner	SS	136	541	141	0.261	8	62	0.313	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.260	0.308	0.364	OK
Pedro Ramirez	2B	58	171	49	0.287	4	24	0.349	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.237	0.308	0.406	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	91	216	50	0.231	13	36	0.314	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.235	0.305	0.491	OK
Carson Kelly	C	98	331	87	0.263	10	51	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.336	0.450	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	11	6	6	3	8	0.289

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Heriberto Hernández	LF	107	362	84	0.232	23	61	0.311	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.225	0.300	0.496	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	137	549	166	0.302	10	62	0.338	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.240	0.273	0.379	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	69	209	52	0.249	14	31	0.340	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.228	0.306	0.381	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	112	376	108	0.287	7	53	0.322	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.306	0.342	0.458	OK
Agustín Ramírez	DH	52	174	40	0.230	3	18	0.318	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.216	0.291	0.354	OK
Esteury Ruiz	CF	73	170	40	0.235	6	11	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.283	0.367	OK
Deyvison De Los Santos	1B	4	9	3	0.333	0	0	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.311	0.322	0.433	OK
Jared Serna	2B	2	3	1	0.333	0	1	0.400	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.311	0.459	0.346	OK
Brian Navarreto	C	19	42	5	0.119	1	2	0.191	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.088	0.130	0.151	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	4	3	3	6	10	0.129

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	27	147.3	4.09	1.168	9.0	148	5.1	2	0	0	3	5	97	5.1	5	0
Jacob Webb	Closer	61	54.4	3.47	1.360	10.8	65	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.1	1	0
Colin Rea	Setup Man	29	124.9	4.61	1.393	7.0	97	1.1	2	3	3	2	2	36	1.1	2	3
Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	43	39.4	3.65	1.371	6.4	28	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Janson Junk	Starter	21	100.2	4.22	1.337	6.3	70	5.0	7	4	4	1	4	88	5.0	4	4
Calvin Faucher	Closer	60	52.2	4.31	1.494	11.0	64	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	36	26.4	5.45	1.629	11.6	34	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	50.8	3.72	1.280	11.9	67	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	10	11.2	4.02	1.250	8.0	10	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-3

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

DET 64-76 (4.4 RPG / 4.07 RA)

3 - 4

CLE 71-70 (4.06 RPG / 4.13 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 4-3 TARGET: DET 3 - 4 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	8
CLE	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	x	4	8

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed6.0

Run Diff-30

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

DET Season Quality

Record64-75

Win%0.460

Run Diff47

RD/Game0.338

CLE Season Quality

Record70-70

Win%0.500

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.079

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0337; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gleyber Torres	DH	80	301	79	0.262	8	36	0.365	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.257	0.349	0.371	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	134	515	140	0.272	14	58	0.373	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.245	0.344	0.371	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	88	253	68	0.269	8	36	0.312	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.260	0.309	0.429	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	127	483	121	0.251	26	82	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.211	0.249	0.354	OK
Riley Greene	LF	117	428	116	0.271	16	56	0.362	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.228	0.310	0.381	OK
Ben Malgeri	RF	32	78	19	0.244	3	11	0.326	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.237	0.309	0.361	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	136	461	101	0.219	21	64	0.313	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.171	0.257	0.386	OK
Max Clark	CF	30	105	27	0.257	2	14	0.328	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.282	0.337	0.466	OK
Javier Báez	SS	48	162	41	0.253	2	17	0.282	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.172	0.202	0.284	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	3	7	0.229

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	125	450	123	0.273	2	27	0.370	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.285	0.368	0.345	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	114	430	127	0.295	13	59	0.365	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.309	0.363	0.450	OK
José Ramírez	DH	103	386	93	0.241	11	48	0.334	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.246	0.330	0.399	OK
Jo Adell	LF	26	96	24	0.250	4	21	0.336	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.248	0.298	0.398	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	24	87	19	0.218	3	15	0.258	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.215	0.284	0.392	OK
Angel Genao	3B	23	83	21	0.253	2	6	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.215	0.268	0.337	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	102	373	87	0.233	9	41	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.181	0.268	0.284	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	58	173	42	0.243	7	27	0.309	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.202	0.290	0.364	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	130	458	113	0.247	10	53	0.305	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.217	0.258	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	8	4	4	2	8	0.250

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Keider Montero	Starter	28	134.8	3.34	1.024	6.1	92	6.0	5	2	2	2	7	109	6.0	7	2
Kenley Jansen	Closer	40	33.2	3.80	1.265	11.4	42	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	60	53.5	3.53	1.533	8.6	51	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Allen	Starter	6	14.1	3.83	1.489	9.6	15	3.0	2	0	0	2	3	58	3.0	3	0
Cade Smith	Closer	58	57.5	2.50	1.148	13.5	86	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	55	39.5	3.42	1.443	10.5	46	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	28	2.0	1	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	49	30.7	3.52	1.466	19.1	65	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	52	44.5	2.43	1.124	10.1	50	1.1	3	2	2	1	1	30	1.1	1	2

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-3

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

DET 64-76 (4.4 RPG / 4.07 RA)

3 - 4

CLE 71-70 (4.06 RPG / 4.13 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 4-3 TARGET: DET 3 - 4 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4
CLE	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	4	7

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed6.0

Run Diff-30

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

DET Season Quality

Record64-75

Win%0.460

Run Diff47

RD/Game0.338

CLE Season Quality

Record70-70

Win%0.500

Run Diff-11

RD/Game-0.079

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0337; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gleyber Torres	DH	80	301	79	0.262	8	36	0.365	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.257	0.349	0.371	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	134	515	140	0.272	14	58	0.373	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.345	0.372	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	88	253	68	0.269	8	36	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.310	0.429	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	127	483	121	0.251	26	82	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.249	0.354	OK
Riley Greene	LF	117	428	116	0.271	16	56	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.310	0.381	OK
Ben Malgeri	RF	32	78	19	0.244	3	11	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.237	0.309	0.361	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	136	461	101	0.219	21	64	0.313	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.171	0.257	0.387	OK
Max Clark	CF	30	105	27	0.257	2	14	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.282	0.337	0.466	OK
Javier Báez	SS	48	162	41	0.253	2	17	0.282	3	2	1	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.173	0.202	0.284	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	3	3	3	5	0.129

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	125	450	123	0.273	2	27	0.370	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.285	0.368	0.345	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	114	430	127	0.295	13	59	0.365	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.309	0.363	0.450	OK
José Ramírez	DH	103	386	93	0.241	11	48	0.334	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.330	0.399	OK
Jo Adell	LF	26	96	24	0.250	4	21	0.336	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.248	0.298	0.399	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	24	87	19	0.218	3	15	0.258	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.215	0.284	0.392	OK
Angel Genao	3B	23	83	21	0.253	2	6	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.215	0.268	0.337	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	102	373	87	0.233	9	41	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.182	0.268	0.285	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	58	173	42	0.243	7	27	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.202	0.290	0.364	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	130	458	113	0.247	10	53	0.305	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.217	0.258	0.308	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	7	4	4	5	8	0.226

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Sears	Starter	2	6.2	7.26	1.452	5.8	4	3.1	3	1	1	3	5	75	3.1	5	1
Kenley Jansen	Closer	40	33.2	3.80	1.265	11.4	42	0.2	3	2	2	0	2	17	0.2	2	2
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	60	53.5	3.53	1.533	8.6	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	49.4	3.83	1.721	8.4	46	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12	0.2	0	0
Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	33	21.4	4.21	1.542	19.8	47	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever	27	29.3	3.07	1.092	6.5	21	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	29	1.1	0	1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Foster Griffin	Starter	5	25.0	3.96	1.360	8.3	23	5.2	4	3	3	3	5	102	5.2	5	3
Cade Smith	Closer	58	57.5	2.50	1.148	13.5	86	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	55	39.5	3.42	1.443	10.5	46	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	49	30.7	3.52	1.466	19.1	65	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-3

Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates

LAA 53-88 (4.05 RPG / 4.62 RA)

5 - 7

PIT 70-72 (4.87 RPG / 4.66 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 7-5 TARGET: LAA 5 - 7 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 66.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	2	0	2	1	0	0	0	5	9
PIT	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	1	x	7	7

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.100

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record53-87

Win%0.379

Run Diff-80

RD/Game-0.571

PIT Season Quality

Record69-72

Win%0.489

Run Diff29

RD/Game0.206

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8399; margin adjustment: 0.3528; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	135	538	127	0.236	23	66	0.317	5	5	2	1	3	0	2	0.400	0.220	0.285	0.413	OK
Mike Trout	CF	121	440	105	0.239	20	50	0.375	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.222	0.326	0.365	OK
Wade Meckler	RF	71	226	67	0.296	3	23	0.367	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.291	0.362	0.375	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	94	342	85	0.249	10	58	0.307	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.243	0.280	0.408	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	C	26	100	17	0.170	1	6	0.217	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.203	0.257	0.324	OK
Christian Moore	2B	17	61	11	0.180	1	6	0.250	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.181	0.238	0.346	OK
Jose Siri	LF	70	175	39	0.223	7	23	0.275	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.189	0.237	0.326	OK
Adam Frazier	DH	48	110	27	0.245	1	10	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.289	0.350	OK
Oswald Peraza	3B	100	317	71	0.224	7	24	0.278	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.210	0.251	0.312	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	36	9	5	5	1	10	0.250

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Spencer Horwitz	1B	98	340	84	0.247	10	41	0.345	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.228	0.303	0.322	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	128	503	127	0.252	29	83	0.322	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.260	0.331	0.505	OK
Bryan Reynolds	RF	138	512	135	0.264	15	66	0.371	4	3	0	1	1	1	2	0.000	0.273	0.367	0.415	OK
Nick Gonzales	DH	127	483	148	0.306	4	57	0.368	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.326	0.385	0.399	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	77	300	81	0.270	17	58	0.362	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.262	0.357	0.412	OK
Konnor Griffin	SS	58	225	62	0.276	5	25	0.332	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.296	0.341	0.421	OK
Jake Mangum	LF	106	371	108	0.291	4	29	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.298	0.339	0.374	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	3B	36	90	17	0.189	2	9	0.213	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.237	0.281	0.364	OK
Henry Davis	C	76	230	38	0.165	8	34	0.251	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.150	0.217	0.253	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	7	7	7	4	7	0.226

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Johnson	Starter	17	70.7	5.60	1.457	6.6	52	5.0	6	6	6	3	6	101	5.0	6	7
Ben Joyce	Closer	10	8.4	3.21	0.952	13.9	13	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	11.7	4.62	1.453	13.8	18	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	44	39.9	3.83	1.529	12.4	55	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jared Jones	Starter	16	71.5	4.91	1.301	10.4	83	5.0	7	5	5	1	5	98	5.0	5	5
Mason Montgomery	Closer	58	50.2	3.05	1.175	16.1	90	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	10	8.4	6.43	1.667	11.8	11	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	55.0	2.95	1.109	11.3	69	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	23	1.1	2	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 7-5

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

MIL 87-54 (5.0 RPG / 3.79 RA)

8 - 5

CIN 67-73 (4.15 RPG / 4.92 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 8-5 TARGET: MIL 8 - 5 CIN (MIL) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
MIL	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	10
CIN	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	5	8

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.5

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff10

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed6.3

Run Diff-16

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

MIL Season Quality

Record87-54

Win%0.617

Run Diff171

RD/Game1.213

CIN Season Quality

Record67-73

Win%0.479

Run Diff-108

RD/Game-0.771

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5801; margin adjustment: -2.5282; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sal Frelick	RF	92	291	70	0.241	4	35	0.304	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.179	0.249	0.270	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	122	412	110	0.267	22	74	0.386	5	5	0	1	0	0	2	0.000	0.223	0.365	0.381	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	104	433	125	0.289	21	58	0.348	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.287	0.334	0.492	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	96	366	86	0.235	10	47	0.318	5	5	2	1	3	0	0	0.400	0.267	0.335	0.439	OK
William Contreras	C	128	495	134	0.271	13	71	0.339	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.289	0.348	0.443	OK
Brice Turang	2B	127	500	129	0.258	17	80	0.348	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.222	0.308	0.375	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	117	384	98	0.255	8	48	0.345	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.278	0.348	0.431	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	51	161	44	0.273	3	23	0.337	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.293	0.354	0.404	OK
David Hamilton	3B	98	296	71	0.240	4	24	0.306	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.242	0.296	0.326	OK
TEAM TOTALS									45	43	10	8	8	2	10	0.233

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dane Myers	CF	87	234	60	0.256	5	21	0.343	6	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.279	0.345	0.398	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	118	464	128	0.276	21	60	0.358	6	6	2	1	2	0	3	0.333	0.298	0.381	0.461	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	137	527	140	0.266	30	102	0.335	6	5	1	1	0	1	0	0.200	0.251	0.311	0.487	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	107	347	87	0.251	14	49	0.330	6	4	2	1	0	2	1	0.500	0.243	0.312	0.438	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	105	367	77	0.210	20	59	0.301	6	5	1	1	2	1	3	0.200	0.194	0.286	0.397	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	108	387	88	0.227	22	55	0.336	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.225	0.326	0.429	OK
Matt McLain	2B	110	376	71	0.189	13	36	0.283	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.148	0.228	0.274	OK
Héctor Rodríguez	RF	22	75	18	0.240	5	11	0.305	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.236	0.289	0.472	OK
Edwin Arroyo	3B	45	146	33	0.226	0	5	0.269	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.201	0.234	0.250	OK
TEAM TOTALS									50	41	8	5	5	7	10	0.195

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Drohan	Starter	27	107.3	3.86	1.333	9.2	110	5.1	3	1	1	4	6	104	5.1	6	1
Trevor Megill	Closer	53	52.4	1.55	0.821	10.1	59	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	33	1.1	1	0
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	51	46.6	2.12	1.073	9.8	51	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	39	1.1	1	1
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	70.0	3.47	1.471	13.5	105	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	20	1.0	0	1
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	13	10.8	5.00	1.667	6.7	8	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	2	1.2	0.00	1.667	7.5	1	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.0	1	0
DL Hall	Reliever	38	43.8	2.47	1.142	10.5	51	0.2	1	2	2	1	1	15	0.0	1	2

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Rhett Lowder	Starter	24	108.5	5.31	1.502	7.3	88	5.0	7	5	5	1	5	95	5.0	5	5
Emilio Pagán	Closer	36	34.4	4.19	1.047	9.4	36	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	0.2	1	0
Luis Mey	Setup Man	18	22.6	3.98	1.504	13.9	35	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	69	57.0	3.00	1.544	10.9	69	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	25	2.0	3	0
Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	38	33.1	5.98	1.601	8.4	31	0.2	3	3	3	1	1	21	0.0	1	3

Game Summary

MIL wins 8-5

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox

MIN 67-73 (4.7 RPG / 4.97 RA)

6 - 5

CHW 73-67 (4.73 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 6-5 TARGET: MIN 6 - 5 CHW (MIN) Confidence: 53.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	6	8
CHW	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	6

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.9

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff9

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

MIN Season Quality

Record67-73

Win%0.479

Run Diff-38

RD/Game-0.271

CHW Season Quality

Record73-67

Win%0.521

Run Diff39

RD/Game0.279

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3587; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	130	450	125	0.278	9	44	0.368	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.291	0.360	0.433	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	131	501	125	0.250	22	76	0.297	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.251	0.283	0.390	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	122	453	107	0.236	24	70	0.296	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	0.500	0.208	0.270	0.460	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	73	261	72	0.276	13	50	0.371	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.261	0.335	0.571	OK
Josh Bell	DH	134	494	126	0.255	17	83	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.260	0.316	0.371	OK
Trevor Larnach	LF	111	363	97	0.267	11	45	0.346	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.253	0.324	0.413	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	105	387	91	0.235	14	51	0.302	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.217	0.275	0.379	OK
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	22	80	24	0.300	3	9	0.352	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.247	0.286	0.382	OK
Walker Jenkins	CF	6	20	3	0.150	1	3	0.292	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.170	0.284	0.346	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	6	6	5	11	0.229

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	119	412	109	0.265	8	41	0.364	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.264	0.336	0.381	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	137	510	128	0.251	29	76	0.362	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.283	0.376	0.434	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	105	376	80	0.213	29	59	0.354	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.197	0.342	0.426	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	123	379	92	0.243	14	70	0.303	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.217	0.276	0.373	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	132	498	106	0.213	29	79	0.294	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.203	0.273	0.403	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	71	259	58	0.224	5	35	0.315	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.301	0.328	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	128	378	105	0.278	12	52	0.341	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.277	0.333	0.477	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	133	498	136	0.273	12	51	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.255	0.324	0.361	OK
Kyle Teel	C	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.301	0.396
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	5	5	2	10	0.182

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zebby Matthews	Starter	19	110.6	4.64	1.275	7.6	93	6.0	4	4	4	1	6	104	6.0	6	4
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	47	37.2	2.90	1.425	10.2	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	11	8.5	4.24	1.765	14.8	14	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	10.9	0.83	1.009	8.3	10	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	57.2	4.41	1.521	9.3	59	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	14	0.1	0	1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Erick Fedde	Starter	29	119.6	4.29	1.413	6.6	88	4.2	3	5	5	5	7	100	4.2	7	5
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	28	1.1	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	46	60.2	2.84	1.246	9.6	64	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.6	3.33	1.453	9.8	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	0.2	3	1	1	0	2	17	0.2	2	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 6-5

New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres

NYY 80-60 (4.54 RPG / 3.72 RA)

6 - 3

SD 73-67 (4.24 RPG / 4.17 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 6-3 TARGET: NYY 6 - 3 SD (NYY) Confidence: 64.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	6	7
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	8

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff15

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

NYY Season Quality

Record80-60

Win%0.571

Run Diff115

RD/Game0.821

SD Season Quality

Record73-67

Win%0.521

Run Diff10

RD/Game0.071

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7267; margin adjustment: -0.3052; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	131	493	125	0.254	34	83	0.349	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.268	0.337	0.440	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	111	412	111	0.269	12	60	0.351	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.318	0.377	0.443	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	26	96	28	0.292	5	12	0.337	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.256	0.399	OK
Spencer Jones	RF	64	188	45	0.239	9	28	0.311	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.254	0.323	0.475	OK
Trent Grisham	CF	115	410	86	0.210	17	58	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.146	0.249	0.269	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	127	443	103	0.233	19	55	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.278	0.358	0.473	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	23	79	20	0.253	2	6	0.310	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.239	0.298	0.345	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	96	274	60	0.219	10	32	0.286	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.134	0.220	0.219	OK
Austin Wells	C	103	290	55	0.190	10	28	0.277	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.203	0.276	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	6	6	2	5	0.206

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	136	543	154	0.284	19	69	0.349	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.274	0.321	0.517	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	29	96	32	0.333	1	11	0.418	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.287	0.362	0.386	OK
Manny Machado	3B	136	506	111	0.219	24	75	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.229	0.315	0.345	OK
Ty France	1B	108	367	107	0.292	20	62	0.358	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.275	0.341	0.502	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	136	531	128	0.241	22	70	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.270	0.379	OK
Austin Hays	DH	12	32	7	0.219	1	3	0.219	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.213	0.226	0.317	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	133	452	99	0.219	11	51	0.321	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.224	0.330	0.305	OK
Luis Campusano	C	54	155	43	0.277	5	23	0.378	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.201	0.290	0.321	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	87	302	65	0.215	4	26	0.301	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.149	0.224	0.243	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	3	3	2	8	0.229

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Fried	Starter	16	87.9	2.87	1.024	8.5	83	5.2	2	0	0	2	6	85	5.2	6	0
David Bednar	Closer	56	56.6	2.86	1.095	10.8	68	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	71	56.7	2.38	1.464	13.8	87	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	25	1.0	0	3
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	69.6	1.81	1.149	8.3	64	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	20	1.1	2	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walker Buehler	Starter	27	127.6	4.80	1.395	7.8	111	5.1	5	4	4	0	4	86	5.1	4	4
Mason Miller	Closer	55	54.3	1.33	0.884	17.2	104	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	64	65.8	3.15	1.231	12.3	90	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	53.7	2.18	1.192	11.2	67	1.2	1	1	1	2	1	32	1.2	1	1

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-3

Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

OAK 55-86 (4.38 RPG / 5.74 RA)

5 - 6

SEA 66-75 (3.96 RPG / 4.45 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 6-5 TARGET: OAK 5 - 6 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	11
SEA	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	x	6	10

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

OAK Season Quality

Record55-86

Win%0.390

Run Diff-191

RD/Game-1.355

SEA Season Quality

Record66-75

Win%0.468

Run Diff-68

RD/Game-0.482

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6249; margin adjustment: 0.2625; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	94	336	93	0.277	8	30	0.350	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.284	0.340	0.419	OK
Jeff McNeil	1B	122	404	109	0.270	7	50	0.317	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.276	0.318	0.395	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	86	314	81	0.258	16	40	0.325	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.238	0.296	0.461	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	126	391	91	0.233	12	49	0.323	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.285	0.363	0.401	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	103	293	76	0.259	8	38	0.327	5	3	1	1	2	2	0	0.333	0.260	0.314	0.385	OK
Jonah Heim	C	78	269	57	0.212	12	34	0.267	5	4	3	1	0	1	1	0.750	0.224	0.267	0.413	OK
Max Muncy	DH	72	228	49	0.215	7	26	0.286	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.207	0.271	0.340	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	35	78	18	0.231	2	9	0.412	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.184	0.290	0.393	OK
Alika Williams	SS	60	166	45	0.271	3	14	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.296	0.438	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	38	11	5	5	5	10	0.289

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Randy Arozarena	LF	133	495	135	0.273	22	66	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.256	0.329	0.498	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	123	392	100	0.255	21	63	0.327	4	3	3	1	2	1	0	1.000	0.251	0.310	0.481	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	129	515	126	0.245	20	60	0.304	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.231	0.278	0.366	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	105	377	65	0.172	20	56	0.286	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.219	0.312	0.501	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	131	513	136	0.265	10	48	0.324	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.274	0.300	OK
Cole Young	2B	140	513	126	0.246	16	57	0.309	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.218	0.268	0.341	OK
J.P. Crawford	SS	95	333	74	0.222	10	31	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.294	0.409	0.393	OK
Lazaro Montes	RF	2	9	3	0.333	1	3	0.400	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.314	0.420	OK
Brock Rodden	3B	15	46	9	0.196	0	4	0.309	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.203	0.314	0.291	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	10	6	6	1	6	0.294

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kade Morris	Starter	5	14.2	10.14	2.183	6.3	10	3.0	9	5	5	1	4	69	3.0	4	5
Elvis Alvarado	Closer	45	38.7	4.65	1.370	12.6	54	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	24	2.0	0	0
Hogan Harris	Setup Man	64	49.6	4.17	1.794	14.7	81	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	59.0	3.51	1.475	12.2	80	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1
Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	15	21.0	3.00	1.429	9.4	22	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Gilbert	Starter	27	156.6	3.51	1.060	9.5	166	5.2	4	1	1	5	6	115	5.2	6	1
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	52	47.3	4.19	1.226	15.4	81	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	23	1.0	1	0
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	63	50.3	4.29	1.590	8.1	45	0.2	5	4	4	0	0	23	0.2	0	4
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	52.2	3.97	1.667	10.9	63	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	46	32.8	3.02	1.280	9.6	35	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	11	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 6-5

San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets

SF 59-84 (4.19 RPG / 4.69 RA)

4 - 5

NYM 64-77 (4.16 RPG / 4.49 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 5-4 TARGET: SF 4 - 5 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 54.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	8
NYM	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	x	5	11

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.8

Avg Allowed5.6

Run Diff2

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-11

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

SF Season Quality

Record58-83

Win%0.411

Run Diff-73

RD/Game-0.518

NYM Season Quality

Record63-77

Win%0.450

Run Diff-50

RD/Game-0.357

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0161; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drew Gilbert	CF	106	299	71	0.237	8	36	0.308	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.222	0.279	0.357	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	140	524	133	0.254	31	82	0.336	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.266	0.359	0.563	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	95	338	88	0.260	15	45	0.355	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.297	0.392	0.459	OK
Turner Hill	LF	15	44	14	0.318	0	11	0.400	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.311	0.389	0.427	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	126	480	137	0.285	8	49	0.328	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.179	0.231	0.276	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	42	112	27	0.241	0	9	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.162	0.244	0.229	OK
Osleivis Basabe	3B	28	95	20	0.211	4	10	0.262	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.207	0.248	0.352	OK
Nate Furman	2B	13	25	4	0.160	0	3	0.222	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.161	0.221	0.204	OK
Christian Koss	SS	45	135	27	0.200	1	5	0.234	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.197	0.225	0.262	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	4	4	3	11	0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	81	319	74	0.232	15	36	0.314	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.222	0.287	0.417	OK
Juan Soto	LF	87	307	87	0.283	23	55	0.400	4	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.255	0.355	0.552	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	134	534	142	0.266	14	66	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.313	0.388	OK
Mark Vientos	DH	74	242	52	0.215	12	36	0.253	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.219	0.256	0.432	OK
Carson Benge	RF	130	498	137	0.275	16	53	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.329	0.396	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	117	412	92	0.223	14	44	0.289	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.311	0.346	OK
Christopher Morel	1B	7	14	3	0.214	0	1	0.312	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.182	0.241	0.259	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	93	308	69	0.224	12	32	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.193	0.257	0.302	OK
Nick Morabito	CF	6	14	2	0.143	0	3	0.250	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.203	0.214	0.311	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	11	5	5	0	5	0.314

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matt Wilkinson	Starter	3	11.2	4.82	1.161	4.8	6	4.0	6	3	3	0	3	80	4.0	3	3
Dylan Smith	Closer	34	28.4	3.49	1.479	13.0	41	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	28	1.2	0	0
Trent Harris	Setup Man	11	12.3	3.66	1.463	13.2	18	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	23	1.1	0	1
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	19.9	4.97	1.658	7.7	17	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nolan McLean	Starter	27	153.8	3.10	1.138	10.1	172	6.0	5	2	2	3	8	111	6.0	8	2
Kodai Senga	Closer	24	52.2	7.76	1.724	11.2	65	1.0	0	1	1	0	2	13	1.0	2	1
Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	21	23.2	2.33	0.862	10.1	26	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	12	9.4	0.00	0.851	13.4	14	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies

STL 70-71 (4.49 RPG / 4.55 RA)

6 - 5

COL 54-86 (4.68 RPG / 5.68 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 6-5 TARGET: STL 6 - 5 COL (STL) Confidence: 54.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	6	11
COL	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	5	7

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed6.1

Run Diff-9

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

STL Season Quality

Record70-71

Win%0.496

Run Diff-9

RD/Game-0.064

COL Season Quality

Record54-86

Win%0.386

Run Diff-140

RD/Game-1.000

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7151; margin adjustment: -0.3003; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Bryan Torres	2B	50	120	31	0.258	3	16	0.316	5	5	3	1	3	0	0	0.600	0.290	0.345	0.397	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	137	518	125	0.241	13	54	0.352	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.265	0.337	0.349	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	136	520	146	0.281	21	98	0.344	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.165	0.232	0.280	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	134	523	151	0.289	26	94	0.346	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.299	0.341	0.499	OK
Leonardo Bernal	C	3	13	4	0.308	1	4	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.322	0.329	0.494	OK
Joshua Baez	LF	18	58	13	0.224	6	14	0.281	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.243	0.278	0.615	OK
Nolan Gorman	3B	69	220	41	0.186	8	27	0.266	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.156	0.239	0.274	OK
Thomas Saggese	SS	31	91	22	0.242	4	10	0.300	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.280	0.342	0.510	OK
Nathan Church	CF	108	360	88	0.244	10	46	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.267	0.303	0.377	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	38	11	6	6	1	3	0.289

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	119	459	134	0.292	14	71	0.331	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.291	0.323	0.489	OK
Mickey Moniak	RF	98	347	87	0.251	21	60	0.288	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.235	0.269	0.444	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	120	449	113	0.252	36	73	0.318	5	4	2	1	3	1	0	0.500	0.225	0.280	0.433	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	133	474	139	0.293	14	63	0.385	5	3	1	1	1	2	0	0.333	0.303	0.398	0.459	OK
Cole Carrigg	SS	68	244	64	0.262	6	37	0.341	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.254	0.318	0.421	OK
Connor Norby	3B	21	70	18	0.257	2	10	0.342	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.219	0.297	0.337	OK
Troy Johnston	DH	111	352	101	0.287	4	46	0.352	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.295	0.356	0.425	OK
Adael Amador	2B	7	18	7	0.389	2	7	0.500	4	2	1	1	0	2	1	0.500	0.358	0.451	0.618	OK
Zac Veen	LF	17	34	9	0.265	2	8	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.152	0.239	0.368	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	34	7	5	5	6	7	0.206

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andre Pallante	Starter	24	133.2	3.65	1.269	6.6	97	6.0	3	2	2	4	5	111	6.0	5	2
Riley O'Brien	Closer	58	53.2	4.40	1.316	9.3	55	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	26	1.0	1	3
George Soriano	Setup Man	63	53.3	4.90	1.520	10.3	61	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	47.4	4.75	1.561	11.0	58	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Feltner	Starter	21	99.1	5.99	1.584	6.9	76	4.2	9	6	6	1	3	91	4.2	3	6
Jordan Romano	Closer	19	17.3	2.08	1.156	9.4	18	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	65	46.3	3.11	1.382	8.0	41	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	43	38.3	6.58	1.723	9.2	39	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	38	25.2	6.43	1.984	11.8	33	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.1	0	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	55	50.4	6.25	1.944	9.5	53	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

STL wins 6-5

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

TB 83-57 (4.49 RPG / 4.16 RA)

3 - 4

TEX 70-71 (4.1 RPG / 4.4 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 3 - 4 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	7
TEX	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	4	7

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff4

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

TB Season Quality

Record83-57

Win%0.593

Run Diff45

RD/Game0.321

TEX Season Quality

Record70-71

Win%0.496

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.298

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4965; margin adjustment: -0.2085; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	134	530	162	0.306	21	76	0.374	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.301	0.359	0.469	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	135	510	141	0.276	17	80	0.359	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.302	0.373	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	139	531	148	0.279	37	88	0.365	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.324	0.446	OK
Liam Hicks	C	23	71	22	0.310	3	13	0.405	4	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.282	0.341	0.388	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	52	168	37	0.220	10	22	0.283	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.157	0.218	0.290	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	128	495	153	0.309	0	31	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.277	0.308	0.327	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	118	397	82	0.207	14	43	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.195	0.282	0.303	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	102	299	67	0.224	6	41	0.318	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.191	0.274	0.324	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	108	340	75	0.221	2	33	0.307	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.228	0.308	0.309	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	3	3	1	9	0.206

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	126	355	84	0.237	24	49	0.327	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.198	0.276	0.393	OK
Corey Seager	SS	80	296	66	0.223	14	37	0.323	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.216	0.313	0.414	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	89	341	86	0.252	15	36	0.334	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.219	0.308	0.381	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	135	514	138	0.268	14	58	0.335	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.279	0.343	0.423	OK
Ezequiel Duran	2B	130	460	127	0.276	16	76	0.337	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.284	0.353	0.479	OK
Jake Burger	1B	133	485	114	0.235	23	79	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.215	0.269	0.367	OK
Evan Carter	CF	119	340	66	0.194	8	34	0.288	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.137	0.217	0.242	OK
Cody Freeman	3B	25	71	20	0.282	1	6	0.346	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.252	0.304	0.349	OK
Elias Díaz	C	54	164	38	0.232	4	19	0.260	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.225	0.259	0.386	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	33	7	4	4	6	8	0.212

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Martinez	Starter	26	150.4	3.05	1.124	5.4	91	6.0	2	1	1	6	6	118	6.0	6	2
Bryan Baker	Closer	56	53.6	1.51	0.896	10.1	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	25	1.0	0	1
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	60	55.1	2.29	0.980	8.5	52	1.2	5	3	3	0	2	30	1.0	2	1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Williams	Starter	1	1.1	24.55	4.545	8.2	1	4.2	4	1	1	1	6	87	4.2	6	1
Jacob Latz	Closer	48	57.4	1.25	0.714	10.7	68	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	33	1.2	1	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	44	43.6	2.89	1.216	7.2	35	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	16	11.1	4.05	1.892	11.4	14	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	22	1.0	1	2

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3

Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals

TOR 70-71 (4.01 RPG / 4.3 RA)

5 - 7

KC 63-78 (4.3 RPG / 4.9 RA)

WINNER: KC wins 7-5 TARGET: TOR 5 - 7 KC (KC) Confidence: 55.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5	11
KC	0	4	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7	9

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff10

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TOR Season Quality

Record70-71

Win%0.496

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.291

KC Season Quality

Record63-78

Win%0.447

Run Diff-85

RD/Game-0.603

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2344; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brett Bateman	CF	22	91	30	0.330	0	7	0.380	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.318	0.369	0.405	OK
George Springer	DH	105	398	100	0.251	14	45	0.327	5	5	2	1	3	0	2	0.400	0.303	0.358	0.488	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	125	473	123	0.260	8	54	0.328	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.240	0.309	0.361	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	61	218	59	0.271	8	32	0.339	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.244	0.300	0.366	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	134	493	112	0.227	28	78	0.302	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.202	0.274	0.428	OK
Charles McAdoo	2B	24	74	18	0.243	2	10	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.162	0.218	0.251	OK
Ernie Clement	SS	137	521	143	0.274	9	44	0.301	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.283	0.344	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	102	343	91	0.265	10	35	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.259	0.296	0.389	OK
Myles Straw	LF	106	251	58	0.231	3	22	0.288	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.259	0.333	0.380	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	38	11	5	5	1	8	0.289

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	129	458	106	0.231	22	67	0.317	5	5	1	1	4	0	0	0.200	0.266	0.342	0.623	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	121	474	134	0.283	16	49	0.357	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.312	0.369	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	128	466	131	0.281	23	69	0.329	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.292	0.325	0.465	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	130	502	112	0.223	18	65	0.268	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.231	0.259	0.387	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	93	344	83	0.241	9	42	0.331	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.212	0.300	0.344	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	99	313	75	0.240	7	41	0.326	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.188	0.272	0.358	OK
Michael Massey	2B	109	348	97	0.279	11	45	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.279	0.318	0.443	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	123	391	89	0.228	6	40	0.327	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.205	0.297	0.330	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	78	241	56	0.232	6	24	0.281	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.229	0.271	0.327	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	36	9	7	7	0	5	0.250

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jameson Taillon	Starter	2	8.0	3.38	1.500	7.9	7	4.2	4	4	4	0	3	83	4.2	3	4
Louis Varland	Closer	63	65.0	1.25	1.062	11.9	86	1.1	4	2	2	0	1	36	1.1	1	2
Michael Lorenzen	Setup Man	2	3.0	9.00	2.000	6.0	2	0.2	0	1	1	0	1	8	0.2	1	1
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	58.0	2.02	1.276	5.4	35	2.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	51	55.6	3.40	1.169	7.4	46	5.0	4	1	1	1	8	86	5.0	8	1
Steven Cruz	Closer	50	48.0	4.69	1.354	10.7	57	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Nate Pearson	Setup Man	17	16.3	0.55	0.920	8.3	15	1.2	4	2	2	0	0	33	1.2	0	2
Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	8	7.3	0.00	0.548	6.2	5	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	22	1.0	0	2

Game Summary

KC wins 7-5

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

WAS 67-75 (5.18 RPG / 5.08 RA)

4 - 5

LAD 83-57 (4.91 RPG / 3.86 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 5-4 TARGET: WAS 4 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 56.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	6
LAD	0	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	x	5	7

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff4

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

WAS Season Quality

Record67-75

Win%0.472

Run Diff14

RD/Game0.099

LAD Season Quality

Record83-57

Win%0.593

Run Diff147

RD/Game1.050

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6286; margin adjustment: 0.264; applied: True

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	LF	115	441	117	0.265	30	73	0.391	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.253	0.374	0.490	OK
Andrés Chaparro	DH	61	150	37	0.247	9	34	0.343	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.246	0.328	0.465	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	87	329	71	0.216	10	34	0.287	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.203	0.259	0.309	OK
CJ Abrams	2B	133	506	135	0.267	29	94	0.343	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.241	0.309	0.438	OK
Brady House	3B	74	264	64	0.242	10	41	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.273	0.331	0.433	OK
Yohandy Morales	1B	2	8	4	0.500	1	1	0.500	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.238	0.247	0.479	OK
Harry Ford	C	24	75	15	0.200	3	8	0.302	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.149	0.244	0.283	OK
Jacob Young	CF	113	378	94	0.249	10	42	0.310	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.170	0.233	0.275	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	123	402	86	0.214	1	35	0.293	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.202	0.271	0.242	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	4	4	5	12	0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Edman	CF	59	215	59	0.274	5	27	0.347	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.289	0.329	0.419	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	101	398	97	0.244	17	53	0.303	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.245	0.307	0.419	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	102	363	93	0.256	12	47	0.319	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.299	0.355	0.464	OK
Will Smith	C	53	182	44	0.242	6	25	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.219	0.303	0.360	OK
Max Muncy	3B	127	414	101	0.244	26	68	0.342	4	3	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.133	0.253	0.262	OK
Miguel Rojas	2B	80	188	52	0.277	3	20	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.231	0.266	0.399	OK
Alex Call	DH	61	139	35	0.252	1	18	0.346	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.257	0.344	0.333	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	128	461	104	0.226	11	58	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.191	0.298	0.292	OK
Enrique Hernández	1B	22	49	11	0.224	2	5	0.269	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.171	0.219	0.288	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	7	5	5	4	5	0.226

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jackson Kent	Starter	4	18.4	5.87	1.793	8.3	17	4.1	5	4	4	4	4	87	4.1	4	4
Clayton Beeter	Closer	46	40.9	3.96	1.443	9.9	45	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	23	1.1	0	1
Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	45	38.8	4.18	1.340	9.7	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5	6.2	0.00	0.806	11.6	8	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Blake Snell	Starter	5	26.0	2.42	1.077	12.5	36	5.1	2	2	2	1	10	87	5.1	10	2
Tanner Scott	Closer	60	51.1	2.82	1.037	11.8	67	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	56	48.2	3.17	1.120	12.0	64	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	18.1	2.98	1.105	9.4	19	1.2	2	1	1	2	1	35	1.2	1	1

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros

ARI Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

ATL Recent Form

PHI Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

PHI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

BOS Recent Form

BAL Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

BAL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins

CHC Recent Form

MIA Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

MIA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

DET Recent Form

CLE Recent Form

DET Season Quality

CLE Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians

DET Recent Form

CLE Recent Form

DET Season Quality

CLE Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates

LAA Recent Form

PIT Recent Form

LAA Season Quality

PIT Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds