MLB Predictions — August 31, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ COL	7 - 4	7 - 4	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 7-4	75%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ HOU	4 - 5	4 - 5	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ MIN	4 - 5	4 - 5	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ WAS	3 - 4	3 - 4	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ CHC	6 - 5	6 - 5	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 6-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ TB	3 - 5	3 - 5	TB	TB	TB wins 5-3	67%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ LAA	5 - 4	5 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-4	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ TEX	3 - 5	3 - 5	TEX	TEX	TEX wins 5-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ ARI	5 - 4	5 - 4	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ CIN	6 - 4	6 - 4	SD	SD	SD wins 6-4	67%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ BOS	2 - 3	2 - 3	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 3-2	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ ATL	4 - 5	4 - 5	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies

BAL 68-69 (4.57 RPG / 4.7 RA)

7 - 4

COL 52-85 (4.7 RPG / 5.74 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 7-4 TARGET: BAL 7 - 4 COL (BAL) Confidence: 74.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	3	1	7	10
COL	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	5

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff13

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-20

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak4L

BAL Season Quality

Record68-69

Win%0.496

Run Diff-18

RD/Game-0.131

COL Season Quality

Record52-85

Win%0.380

Run Diff-142

RD/Game-1.036

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0438; margin adjustment: -0.4384; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Holliday	2B	80	256	58	0.227	6	27	0.303	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.177	0.251	0.308	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	134	504	137	0.272	32	91	0.361	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.251	0.335	0.467	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	132	530	118	0.223	21	56	0.307	5	3	1	1	0	2	1	0.333	0.276	0.346	0.561	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	103	327	72	0.220	19	55	0.285	5	4	2	1	2	1	0	0.500	0.242	0.294	0.490	OK
Dylan Beavers	LF	77	235	59	0.251	6	31	0.327	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.272	0.353	0.425	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	92	312	72	0.231	17	48	0.290	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.205	0.256	0.362	OK
Blaze Alexander	3B	72	225	70	0.311	4	29	0.363	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.312	0.354	0.455	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	107	278	63	0.227	12	33	0.312	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.260	0.334	0.445	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	114	376	84	0.223	8	52	0.292	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.289	0.372	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	37	10	7	7	6	6	0.270

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	116	445	129	0.290	14	69	0.329	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.275	0.306	0.453	OK
Connor Norby	2B	18	57	17	0.298	2	10	0.394	4	3	1	1	3	1	2	0.333	0.240	0.320	0.393	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	117	437	111	0.254	36	73	0.320	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.254	0.306	0.493	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	130	464	135	0.291	13	60	0.381	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.284	0.391	0.389	OK
Willi Castro	3B	118	423	110	0.260	15	56	0.332	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.244	0.317	0.386	OK
Mickey Moniak	RF	95	337	85	0.252	21	60	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.233	0.272	0.464	OK
Jordan Beck	LF	45	128	26	0.203	1	10	0.259	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.218	0.277	0.321	OK
Troy Johnston	DH	109	347	100	0.288	4	46	0.352	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.299	0.357	0.436	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	121	402	85	0.211	10	41	0.260	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.214	0.266	0.367	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	4	4	5	9	0.156

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cade Povich	Starter	6	27.4	4.60	1.460	6.9	21	4.2	1	2	2	3	6	81	4.2	6	2
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	48	38.6	3.50	1.503	8.2	35	1.1	0	0	0	2	2	25	1.1	2	0
Yennier Cano	Setup Man	57	35.6	2.78	1.096	10.1	40	0.2	3	2	2	0	0	17	0.2	0	2
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	63	51.0	3.00	1.020	10.4	59	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	14.9	3.02	1.611	10.9	18	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Gordon	Starter	19	82.5	5.45	1.455	7.5	69	5.0	2	2	2	4	6	95	5.0	6	2
Jordan Romano	Closer	17	15.3	2.35	1.307	8.8	15	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	63	45.2	3.19	1.394	8.2	41	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	26	1.0	0	2
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	37.2	6.77	1.747	9.2	38	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	25	1.0	0	2
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	36	23.2	6.59	2.112	12.4	32	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

BAL wins 7-4

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros

CHW 72-64 (4.79 RPG / 4.47 RA)

4 - 5

HOU 69-68 (4.55 RPG / 4.87 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 5-4 TARGET: CHW 4 - 5 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	7
HOU	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed5.6

Run Diff-12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

CHW Season Quality

Record72-64

Win%0.529

Run Diff44

RD/Game0.324

HOU Season Quality

Record69-68

Win%0.504

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.314

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5164; margin adjustment: -0.2169; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	115	398	107	0.269	8	40	0.365	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.279	0.346	0.415	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	101	362	79	0.218	29	58	0.357	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.207	0.351	0.449	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	133	494	123	0.249	29	76	0.362	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.260	0.375	0.440	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	119	365	91	0.249	14	69	0.309	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	0.500	0.274	0.327	0.473	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	68	249	57	0.229	5	35	0.318	4	3	1	1	2	1	2	0.333	0.229	0.307	0.357	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	128	484	102	0.211	28	76	0.289	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.191	0.255	0.402	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	129	484	131	0.271	12	50	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.257	0.322	0.364	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	124	368	103	0.280	12	52	0.341	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.313	0.367	0.590	OK
Jake Rogers	C	5	17	2	0.118	1	2	0.211	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.176	0.274	0.345	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	34	7	4	4	6	9	0.206

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	86	345	98	0.284	17	46	0.338	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.303	0.506	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	134	482	154	0.320	37	93	0.435	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.276	0.377	0.545	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	129	468	118	0.252	17	73	0.353	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.203	0.310	0.324	OK
Christian Walker	1B	130	483	112	0.232	24	75	0.307	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.220	0.275	0.399	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	23	89	16	0.180	3	10	0.247	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.221	0.276	0.364	OK
Cam Smith	RF	124	430	91	0.212	17	47	0.277	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.155	0.211	0.295	OK
Nelson Velázquez	LF	5	11	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.178	0.227	0.345
Nick Allen	2B	54	127	35	0.276	2	13	0.321	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.292	0.343	0.389	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	76	222	47	0.212	7	25	0.264	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.178	0.233	0.324	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	7	5	5	1	7	0.219

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Kay	Starter	27	127.8	4.23	1.385	7.6	108	5.1	4	2	2	0	4	91	5.1	4	3
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	22	1.1	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	46	60.2	2.84	1.246	9.6	64	1.2	2	3	3	1	2	27	1.1	2	2

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Peter Lambert	Starter	23	124.5	3.76	1.261	9.0	125	5.1	3	1	1	3	7	100	5.1	7	1
Josh Hader	Closer	36	35.4	0.51	0.621	12.2	48	1.2	0	0	0	2	0	34	1.2	0	0
Steven Okert	Setup Man	67	57.8	2.49	1.003	10.3	66	1.0	4	3	3	1	1	29	1.0	1	3
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	46.3	4.47	1.555	12.8	66	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

HOU wins 5-4

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

DET 63-73 (4.38 RPG / 3.9 RA)

4 - 5

MIN 65-72 (4.57 RPG / 4.98 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 5-4 TARGET: DET 4 - 5 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	4
MIN	0	2	0	1	0	2	0	0	x	5	5

DET Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.2

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-18

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

DET Season Quality

Record63-73

Win%0.463

Run Diff65

RD/Game0.478

MIN Season Quality

Record65-72

Win%0.474

Run Diff-56

RD/Game-0.409

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4842; margin adjustment: -0.2034; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gleyber Torres	2B	78	295	77	0.261	8	36	0.364	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.247	0.329	0.354	OK
Colt Keith	DH	122	349	90	0.258	9	31	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.229	0.284	0.357	OK
Kevin McGonigle	SS	131	502	139	0.277	14	58	0.379	4	2	1	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.237	0.326	0.376	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	125	475	120	0.253	26	82	0.317	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.222	0.263	0.375	OK
Brett Callahan	LF	11	27	7	0.259	1	6	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.269	0.428	OK
Zach McKinstry	RF	106	325	70	0.215	4	26	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.176	0.247	0.267	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	133	453	99	0.219	20	62	0.310	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.172	0.258	0.327	OK
Max Clark	CF	27	95	23	0.242	2	13	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.238	0.291	0.434	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	3B	85	241	64	0.266	7	33	0.309	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.251	0.308	0.384	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	4	4	4	3	9	0.133

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	127	438	120	0.274	9	41	0.363	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.273	0.342	0.406	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	128	487	121	0.248	22	72	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.276	0.456	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	119	444	105	0.236	22	67	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.282	0.441	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	70	248	67	0.270	10	42	0.368	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.219	0.305	0.370	OK
Josh Bell	DH	131	482	123	0.255	17	83	0.318	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.315	0.400	OK
Trevor Larnach	LF	108	354	94	0.266	11	44	0.343	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.241	0.308	0.419	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	102	374	87	0.233	13	46	0.299	3	3	3	1	5	0	0	1.000	0.206	0.261	0.328	OK
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	19	67	21	0.313	3	6	0.365	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.290	0.333	0.448	OK
Walker Jenkins	CF	3	9	2	0.222	0	1	0.300	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.230	0.300	0.411	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	29	5	5	5	3	6	0.172

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jackson Jobe	Starter	4	17.4	4.14	1.494	7.8	15	4.2	3	3	3	3	6	85	4.2	6	3
Kenley Jansen	Closer	39	33.1	3.81	1.208	11.1	41	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	14	0.2	0	2
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	59	52.5	3.60	1.543	8.6	50	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	47.3	3.04	1.649	8.2	43	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Taj Bradley	Starter	26	145.0	4.03	1.297	10.5	169	5.1	4	4	4	3	6	103	5.1	6	4
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	46	36.0	3.00	1.444	10.2	41	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	10	7.5	4.80	2.000	13.2	11	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	56.2	4.32	1.512	9.4	59	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-4

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

MIA 69-69 (4.33 RPG / 4.24 RA)

3 - 4

WAS 66-74 (5.19 RPG / 5.05 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 4-3 TARGET: MIA 3 - 4 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	3	4
WAS	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	x	4	2

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIA Season Quality

Record69-68

Win%0.504

Run Diff15

RD/Game0.109

WAS Season Quality

Record65-74

Win%0.468

Run Diff16

RD/Game0.115

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0497; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Heriberto Hernández	LF	103	349	81	0.232	22	58	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.218	0.285	0.501	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	133	534	163	0.305	10	61	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.272	0.304	0.435	OK
Agustín Ramírez	DH	49	163	38	0.233	2	17	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.233	0.323	0.325	OK
Javier Sanoja	2B	108	360	100	0.278	6	51	0.313	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.288	0.328	0.421	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	100	368	89	0.242	16	54	0.329	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.163	0.258	0.314	OK
Leo Jiménez	3B	60	162	33	0.204	2	14	0.297	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.213	0.301	0.276	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	128	433	90	0.208	8	31	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.202	0.315	0.328	OK
Esteury Ruiz	RF	71	164	39	0.238	6	11	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.174	0.245	0.301	OK
Brian Navarreto	C	17	37	4	0.108	1	2	0.190	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.107	0.155	0.214	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	3	3	3	13	0.129

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Daylen Lile	LF	137	523	132	0.252	18	76	0.304	4	3	1	1	3	1	0	0.333	0.287	0.345	0.516	OK
Abimelec Ortiz	DH	26	84	19	0.226	5	10	0.261	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.229	0.264	0.419	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	58	142	35	0.246	9	33	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.258	0.333	0.521	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	87	289	81	0.280	9	45	0.319	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.286	0.326	0.462	OK
Brady House	3B	72	257	61	0.237	10	37	0.298	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.180	0.245	0.328	OK
Jorbit Vivas	2B	97	260	63	0.242	3	24	0.333	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.252	0.356	0.347	OK
Jacob Young	CF	111	371	92	0.248	10	41	0.309	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.288	0.354	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	121	395	85	0.215	1	35	0.296	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.200	0.271	0.241	OK
Andrew Pinckney	RF	10	18	4	0.222	1	2	0.286	3	2	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.222	0.263	0.462	OK
TEAM TOTALS									30	26	2	4	4	3	4	0.077

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Gusto	Starter	18	61.0	4.13	1.377	7.8	53	4.2	2	4	4	2	3	73	4.2	3	4
Calvin Faucher	Closer	58	50.2	4.48	1.534	11.5	64	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	33	24.2	4.46	1.570	11.5	31	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	49.8	3.80	1.305	11.9	66	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	8	1.0	1	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Will Dion	Starter	6	13.5	2.67	0.889	10.7	16	5.0	0	1	1	2	7	83	5.0	7	1
Clayton Beeter	Closer	45	39.9	3.38	1.404	10.2	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	20	1.0	2	0
Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	44	37.8	4.29	1.376	9.5	40	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	11.9	10.59	2.017	10.6	14	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	13	1.0	0	1
Max Kranick	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	16	15.6	8.08	2.115	5.8	10	1.0	2	1	1	1	3	23	1.0	3	1

Game Summary

WAS wins 4-3

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

MIL 85-52 (4.99 RPG / 3.69 RA)

6 - 5

CHC 77-60 (5.29 RPG / 4.36 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 6-5 TARGET: MIL 6 - 5 CHC (MIL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	6	4
CHC	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	5	8

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff21

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs6.9

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff24

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIL Season Quality

Record85-52

Win%0.620

Run Diff177

RD/Game1.292

CHC Season Quality

Record77-60

Win%0.562

Run Diff127

RD/Game0.927

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3922; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brice Turang	2B	123	484	127	0.262	17	79	0.353	4	4	0	1	0	0	2	0.000	0.220	0.303	0.398	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	100	414	118	0.285	20	57	0.347	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.273	0.327	0.515	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	118	401	109	0.272	22	74	0.385	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.277	0.396	0.470	OK
William Contreras	C	124	479	129	0.269	13	69	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.337	0.396	0.499	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	92	352	82	0.233	9	45	0.318	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.306	0.372	0.447	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	115	379	96	0.253	8	48	0.344	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.272	0.339	0.411	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	89	283	69	0.244	4	34	0.309	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.326	0.372	OK
David Hamilton	3B	96	289	69	0.239	4	24	0.306	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.234	0.290	0.338	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	48	149	39	0.262	2	19	0.328	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.222	0.287	0.286	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	6	6	2	10	0.129

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	135	519	148	0.285	38	91	0.380	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.303	0.360	0.792	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	118	451	125	0.277	23	79	0.370	5	4	2	1	3	1	1	0.500	0.264	0.344	0.440	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	133	529	136	0.257	20	73	0.346	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.234	0.305	0.439	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	14	38	14	0.368	0	1	0.442	5	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.229	0.284	0.380	OK
Nico Hoerner	SS	132	527	139	0.264	7	61	0.316	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.300	0.338	OK
Michael Busch	1B	133	507	122	0.241	16	66	0.349	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.192	0.294	0.355	OK
Carson Kelly	C	95	319	83	0.260	9	48	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.319	0.422	OK
Miguel Amaya	DH	61	187	43	0.230	5	22	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.279	0.341	OK
Matt Shaw	2B	50	131	33	0.252	4	19	0.317	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.246	0.323	0.421	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	5	5	2	7	0.229

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Harrison	Starter	21	101.0	2.85	1.149	11.3	127	5.2	4	3	3	1	6	99	5.2	6	3
Trevor Megill	Closer	52	51.4	1.58	0.817	10.0	57	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	23	1.0	1	1
Aaron Ashby	Setup Man	63	68.0	3.57	1.515	13.8	104	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Chad Patrick	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	46	88.0	3.38	1.284	8.5	83	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Clay Holmes	Starter	4	22.3	2.02	0.987	4.0	10	6.0	1	2	2	0	5	85	6.0	5	2
Jacob Webb	Closer	60	54.3	3.15	1.344	10.8	65	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Trent Thornton	Setup Man	42	39.2	3.67	1.301	6.0	26	1.0	1	2	2	2	2	24	1.0	2	2
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	10	7.7	7.01	1.948	10.5	9	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19	1.0	2	2

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-5

New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays

NYM 62-76 (4.09 RPG / 4.47 RA)

3 - 5

TB 82-55 (4.51 RPG / 4.12 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-3 TARGET: NYM 3 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 66.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	9
TB	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	6

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak4W

NYM Season Quality

Record61-76

Win%0.445

Run Diff-53

RD/Game-0.387

TB Season Quality

Record82-54

Win%0.603

Run Diff54

RD/Game0.397

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7963; margin adjustment: 0.3344; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	78	306	72	0.235	14	34	0.318	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.234	0.297	0.443	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	131	522	138	0.264	14	66	0.310	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.263	0.310	0.396	OK
Carson Benge	RF	127	486	133	0.274	16	53	0.335	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.261	0.312	0.399	OK
Mark Vientos	DH	71	236	50	0.212	11	35	0.251	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.197	0.242	0.379	OK
Jared Young	1B	82	258	69	0.267	7	32	0.326	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.253	0.292	0.404	OK
Christopher Morel	LF	6	11	2	0.182	0	1	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.165	0.227	0.210	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	114	404	90	0.223	14	43	0.285	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.251	0.316	0.340	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	95	347	83	0.239	7	28	0.312	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.281	0.317	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	91	301	68	0.226	12	31	0.314	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.144	0.225	0.261	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	3	3	3	7	0.250

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	130	514	157	0.305	20	75	0.374	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.288	0.343	0.446	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	132	500	140	0.280	17	79	0.362	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.247	0.312	0.396	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	135	514	145	0.282	37	87	0.370	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.313	0.390	0.574	OK
Liam Hicks	C	21	63	20	0.317	3	12	0.421	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	0.667	0.214	0.290	0.340	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	124	479	148	0.309	0	30	0.337	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.293	0.332	0.353	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	115	389	80	0.206	14	42	0.287	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.124	0.212	0.243	OK
Jonny DeLuca	RF	82	274	74	0.270	9	42	0.301	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.241	0.271	0.401	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	99	288	65	0.226	5	39	0.322	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.118	0.214	0.225	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	105	331	72	0.218	2	32	0.305	3	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.215	0.295	0.293	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	29	6	5	5	4	7	0.207

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robert Stock	Starter	5	20.2	7.57	1.980	9.4	21	4.0	5	4	4	3	5	87	4.0	5	4
Kodai Senga	Closer	23	51.2	7.91	1.738	11.2	64	1.1	0	1	1	0	1	17	1.1	1	1
Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	19	21.9	1.64	0.731	10.3	25	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	10	8.0	0.00	0.625	13.5	12	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ian Seymour	Starter	40	100.7	4.02	1.172	11.4	128	5.0	3	0	0	3	6	94	5.0	6	0
Bryan Baker	Closer	55	52.6	1.54	0.875	10.3	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	59	54.1	2.33	0.998	8.3	50	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	9	11.1	2.43	0.901	9.7	12	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	23	1.1	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	34.4	4.97	1.541	13.9	53	0.2	4	3	3	0	0	20	0.2	0	3

Game Summary

TB wins 5-3

New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels

NYY 78-59 (4.54 RPG / 3.69 RA)

5 - 4

LAA 52-85 (4.05 RPG / 4.65 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-4 TARGET: NYY 5 - 4 LAA (NYY) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	12
LAA	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	8

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff23

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak7L

NYY Season Quality

Record78-59

Win%0.569

Run Diff117

RD/Game0.854

LAA Season Quality

Record52-85

Win%0.380

Run Diff-82

RD/Game-0.599

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.3728; margin adjustment: -0.5766; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	128	479	122	0.255	34	82	0.353	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	0.600	0.304	0.382	0.524	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	108	398	103	0.259	12	59	0.344	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.254	0.327	0.390	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	23	85	26	0.306	5	12	0.355	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.325	0.361	0.595	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	73	197	46	0.234	10	29	0.271	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.253	0.297	0.391	OK
Trent Grisham	CF	112	399	84	0.211	17	56	0.307	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.158	0.262	0.292	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	124	432	99	0.229	18	54	0.307	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.287	0.370	0.441	OK
Spencer Jones	RF	61	178	42	0.236	7	24	0.305	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.251	0.311	0.420	OK
José Caballero	SS	111	365	88	0.241	13	47	0.294	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.282	0.318	0.431	OK
Austin Wells	C	100	282	52	0.184	10	26	0.275	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.179	0.258	0.433	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	39	12	5	5	2	12	0.308

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	132	526	124	0.236	23	65	0.317	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.291	0.458	OK
Mike Trout	CF	118	427	102	0.239	20	48	0.378	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.223	0.333	0.354	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	68	215	62	0.288	3	22	0.357	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.262	0.335	0.350	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	91	329	80	0.243	9	53	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.267	0.378	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	DH	23	87	15	0.172	0	4	0.226	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.228	0.281	0.328	OK
Christian Moore	2B	14	48	8	0.167	1	2	0.255	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.184	0.262	0.324	OK
Josh Lowe	RF	87	257	54	0.210	10	27	0.268	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.210	0.275	0.334	OK
Oswald Peraza	3B	97	308	70	0.227	7	24	0.278	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.214	0.261	0.324	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	25	68	13	0.191	0	3	0.236	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.092	0.119	0.158	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	4	4	2	9	0.229

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Elmer Rodríguez	Starter	5	22.3	4.84	1.570	6.5	16	4.2	5	2	2	2	4	82	4.2	4	2
David Bednar	Closer	54	54.6	2.47	1.044	10.7	65	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	70	55.6	2.43	1.493	13.9	86	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	68.5	1.84	1.153	8.1	62	1.1	2	2	2	0	2	22	1.1	2	2
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	43.2	4.38	1.227	4.8	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walbert Ureña	Starter	24	114.0	3.00	1.316	8.8	112	5.2	5	2	2	2	8	106	5.2	8	2
Ben Joyce	Closer	9	7.4	3.65	1.081	14.6	12	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18	1.0	2	0
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	9	6.6	4.09	1.667	15.0	11	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0
José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	44	39.9	3.83	1.529	12.4	55	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	25	1.0	0	3
Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	12	10.0	1.80	1.300	10.8	12	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-4

Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers

OAK 53-84 (4.35 RPG / 5.74 RA)

3 - 5

TEX 67-70 (4.04 RPG / 4.42 RA)

WINNER: TEX wins 5-3 TARGET: OAK 3 - 5 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	3	4
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	1	5	9

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

OAK Season Quality

Record53-84

Win%0.387

Run Diff-191

RD/Game-1.394

TEX Season Quality

Record67-70

Win%0.489

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.372

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8297; margin adjustment: 0.3485; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	90	319	87	0.273	6	26	0.343	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0.500	0.265	0.315	0.370	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	118	387	103	0.266	6	47	0.313	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.263	0.298	0.354	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	82	298	76	0.255	14	38	0.321	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.199	0.263	0.331	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	122	375	86	0.229	12	45	0.322	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.289	0.378	0.461	OK
Tommy White	1B	38	146	38	0.260	2	8	0.278	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.257	0.276	0.339	OK
Max Muncy	DH	69	217	48	0.221	7	25	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.228	0.290	0.388	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	101	288	74	0.257	8	38	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.310	0.394	OK
Jonah Heim	C	74	251	52	0.207	11	33	0.266	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.145	0.209	0.293	OK
Darell Hernaiz	SS	46	133	32	0.241	1	8	0.327	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.315	0.273	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	3	3	4	11	0.129

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ezequiel Duran	CF	126	447	122	0.273	15	73	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.292	0.349	0.482	OK
Corey Seager	SS	76	283	63	0.223	13	34	0.321	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.235	0.321	0.394	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	85	327	83	0.254	15	36	0.333	4	4	2	1	3	0	2	0.500	0.218	0.315	0.367	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	131	501	131	0.261	14	51	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.251	0.307	0.419	OK
Jake Burger	1B	129	471	111	0.236	23	77	0.298	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.230	0.289	0.413	OK
Justin Foscue	2B	73	178	46	0.258	9	25	0.311	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.294	0.341	0.529	OK
Elias Díaz	DH	50	152	35	0.230	4	18	0.256	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.232	0.264	0.417	OK
Cody Freeman	3B	21	56	16	0.286	1	4	0.365	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.269	0.336	0.444	OK
Danny Jansen	C	46	143	24	0.168	5	16	0.261	3	3	3	1	1	0	0	1.000	0.165	0.228	0.372	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	9	5	5	2	10	0.273

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gage Jump	Starter	17	85.3	4.85	1.512	10.2	97	5.0	6	2	2	2	8	100	5.0	8	2
Hogan Harris	Closer	62	47.6	4.35	1.870	14.6	77	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19	1.0	2	2
Elvis Alvarado	Setup Man	45	38.7	4.65	1.370	12.6	54	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	46	56.9	3.48	1.459	12.0	76	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob deGrom	Starter	25	128.0	4.29	1.203	11.2	159	5.0	3	1	1	2	8	92	5.0	8	1
Jacob Latz	Closer	47	57.2	1.26	0.717	10.4	66	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.1	1	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	43	42.6	2.96	1.221	7.4	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	9.9	4.55	1.818	10.0	11	0.2	1	2	2	1	0	15	0.2	0	2
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	62	50.7	3.91	1.538	9.2	52	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

TEX wins 5-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

PHI 77-60 (4.54 RPG / 4.32 RA)

5 - 4

ARI 73-65 (4.53 RPG / 4.49 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 5-4 TARGET: PHI 5 - 4 ARI (PHI) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	5	8
ARI	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	8

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak4W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

PHI Season Quality

Record77-60

Win%0.562

Run Diff30

RD/Game0.219

ARI Season Quality

Record73-65

Win%0.529

Run Diff5

RD/Game0.036

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3008; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	129	489	119	0.243	39	81	0.356	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.341	0.491	OK
Trea Turner	SS	129	540	132	0.244	17	51	0.295	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.282	0.341	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	135	477	127	0.266	27	78	0.387	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.284	0.401	0.526	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	23	95	27	0.284	2	11	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.200	0.235	0.310	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	129	485	119	0.245	14	75	0.306	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.251	0.308	0.373	OK
Bryson Stott	3B	130	452	117	0.259	9	58	0.335	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.255	0.324	0.387	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	129	464	127	0.274	17	57	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.187	0.247	0.297	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	121	360	94	0.261	2	33	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.157	0.225	0.222	OK
Garrett Stubbs	C	17	47	7	0.149	0	3	0.212	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.090	0.131	0.146	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	35	8	5	5	0	7	0.229

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	133	479	122	0.255	9	47	0.362	5	4	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.274	0.368	0.360	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	134	499	122	0.244	19	61	0.343	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.199	0.291	0.416	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	107	384	116	0.302	11	66	0.382	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.256	0.335	0.433	OK
Ketel Marte	DH	117	469	117	0.249	21	67	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.258	0.328	0.459	OK
Lars Nootbaar	LF	20	61	14	0.230	3	11	0.338	4	3	3	1	1	1	0	1.000	0.249	0.343	0.443	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	128	446	106	0.238	21	65	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.202	0.256	0.338	OK
Tim Tawa	1B	74	235	58	0.247	9	35	0.302	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.242	0.308	0.418	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	2B	114	403	102	0.253	9	66	0.292	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.233	0.268	0.353	OK
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	69	221	59	0.267	3	22	0.329	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.239	0.299	0.402	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	4	4	3	3	0.235

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	27	139.5	5.16	1.434	9.9	153	5.1	7	4	4	2	2	96	5.1	2	4
Jhoan Duran	Closer	50	48.4	1.30	0.992	12.5	67	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	52	45.7	3.15	1.094	12.2	62	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	46.7	4.43	1.435	10.8	56	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	15	1.1	0	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	24	100.8	3.66	1.190	6.4	72	6.1	3	1	1	0	4	89	6.1	4	1
Juan Morillo	Closer	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	4	3	3	0	2	23	1.0	2	3
Brandyn Garcia	Setup Man	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-4

San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds

SD 73-65 (4.26 RPG / 4.15 RA)

6 - 4

CIN 65-73 (4.13 RPG / 4.95 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 6-4 TARGET: SD 6 - 4 CIN (SD) Confidence: 67.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	2	0	6	11
CIN	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	8

SD Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed7.6

Run Diff-20

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

SD Season Quality

Record72-65

Win%0.526

Run Diff10

RD/Game0.073

CIN Season Quality

Record65-72

Win%0.474

Run Diff-108

RD/Game-0.788

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6951; margin adjustment: -0.2919; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	133	529	149	0.282	17	66	0.349	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.243	0.294	0.392	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	84	293	65	0.222	4	26	0.307	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.177	0.244	0.258	OK
Manny Machado	3B	134	499	107	0.214	24	74	0.302	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.218	0.300	0.340	OK
Ty France	1B	105	355	102	0.287	19	59	0.355	5	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.261	0.342	0.473	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	133	519	124	0.239	22	69	0.291	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.231	0.278	0.439	OK
Xander Bogaerts	DH	130	442	96	0.217	11	49	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.309	0.311	OK
Dustin Harris	LF	4	12	6	0.500	0	0	0.500	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.291	0.346	0.395	OK
Luis Campusano	C	51	146	41	0.281	5	23	0.386	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.213	0.320	0.360	OK
Sung-Mun Song	SS	46	116	23	0.198	1	16	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.189	0.276	0.250	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	11	6	6	2	9	0.297

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Héctor Rodríguez	RF	19	61	14	0.230	4	9	0.309	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.239	0.304	0.474	OK
Elly De La Cruz	DH	115	455	125	0.275	21	60	0.355	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.295	0.369	0.496	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	134	515	137	0.266	30	102	0.337	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.286	0.346	0.578	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	105	376	84	0.223	21	52	0.334	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.206	0.315	0.366	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	105	341	86	0.252	14	49	0.329	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.262	0.323	0.499	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	104	364	77	0.212	20	59	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.303	0.423	OK
Matt McLain	SS	107	367	70	0.191	13	35	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.175	0.252	0.313	OK
TJ Friedl	CF	73	226	38	0.168	4	12	0.250	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.155	0.213	0.282	OK
Edwin Arroyo	2B	42	136	32	0.235	0	5	0.276	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.254	0.265	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	4	4	1	7	0.229

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	27	153.2	3.29	1.188	7.9	135	6.0	5	3	3	0	6	92	6.0	6	3
Mason Miller	Closer	55	54.3	1.33	0.884	17.2	104	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	63	65.6	2.88	1.174	12.3	90	1.1	2	0	0	1	0	27	1.1	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	52.6	2.22	1.198	11.1	65	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	11	0.2	0	1

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	26	134.3	4.83	1.452	7.5	112	5.0	8	4	4	1	6	99	5.0	6	4
Emilio Pagán	Closer	34	32.4	4.17	1.080	9.4	34	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	21	1.1	2	0
Tejay Antone	Setup Man	44	37.6	3.83	1.250	9.8	41	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	22	1.0	1	2
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	68	56.0	3.05	1.536	10.8	67	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0

Game Summary

SD wins 6-4

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

SEA 64-74 (3.9 RPG / 4.43 RA)

2 - 3

BOS 75-63 (4.48 RPG / 3.86 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 3-2 TARGET: SEA 2 - 3 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5
BOS	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	x	3	6

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed6.3

Run Diff-29

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak4L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-11

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

SEA Season Quality

Record64-73

Win%0.467

Run Diff-72

RD/Game-0.526

BOS Season Quality

Record74-63

Win%0.540

Run Diff84

RD/Game0.613

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9569; margin adjustment: 0.4019; applied: True

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Randy Arozarena	LF	129	477	128	0.268	20	58	0.367	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.202	0.289	0.370	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	119	375	95	0.253	20	59	0.324	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.232	0.282	0.433	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	125	496	121	0.244	20	56	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.192	0.240	0.307	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	102	363	62	0.171	19	53	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.202	0.316	0.486	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	127	494	133	0.269	10	47	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.291	0.314	OK
Taylor Ward	RF	18	62	7	0.113	0	4	0.225	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.194	0.325	0.273	OK
Cole Young	2B	136	496	122	0.246	16	57	0.307	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.185	0.245	0.334	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	30	78	14	0.179	3	8	0.256	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.160	0.243	0.266	OK
J.P. Crawford	SS	91	323	67	0.207	10	30	0.323	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.184	0.283	0.275	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	2	2	4	8	0.156

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	DH	31	113	27	0.239	1	5	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.255	0.360	0.361	OK
Mickey Gasper	1B	44	133	37	0.278	5	19	0.366	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.308	0.398	0.565	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	128	516	145	0.281	15	65	0.318	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.239	0.262	0.348	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	132	502	130	0.259	23	70	0.339	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.276	0.350	0.495	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	41	151	40	0.265	3	13	0.367	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.336	0.416	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	125	429	105	0.245	12	59	0.315	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.295	0.329	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	126	478	98	0.205	18	60	0.262	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.187	0.233	0.360	OK
Trevor Story	SS	42	168	36	0.214	3	19	0.251	3	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.243	0.278	0.374	OK
Connor Wong	C	61	180	45	0.250	4	23	0.330	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.245	0.297	0.391	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	29	6	3	3	1	5	0.207

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
George Kirby	Starter	25	144.4	4.11	1.364	7.9	126	5.2	5	2	2	0	5	86	5.2	5	2
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	50	46.0	4.11	1.239	15.1	77	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	61	49.1	4.40	1.568	8.1	44	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	19	1.1	0	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Payton Tolle	Starter	22	123.0	3.15	1.106	10.3	141	6.0	2	0	0	3	7	105	6.0	7	0
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	45	44.2	1.22	1.086	11.8	58	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Erik Miller	Setup Man	10	10.1	0.00	0.990	16.0	18	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0
Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	36	32.5	1.94	1.077	10.0	36	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	19	1.0	1	2

Game Summary

BOS wins 3-2

San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves

SF 58-81 (4.13 RPG / 4.6 RA)

4 - 5

ATL 82-57 (4.61 RPG / 3.83 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-4 TARGET: SF 4 - 5 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	4	3
ATL	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	7

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed2.3

Run Diff7

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak7W

SF Season Quality

Record56-81

Win%0.409

Run Diff-74

RD/Game-0.540

ATL Season Quality

Record82-55

Win%0.599

Run Diff117

RD/Game0.854

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2284; margin adjustment: 0.5159; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drew Gilbert	LF	103	289	70	0.242	8	36	0.313	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.229	0.284	0.398	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	136	510	129	0.253	28	77	0.330	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.260	0.333	0.487	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	91	323	84	0.260	15	42	0.353	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.268	0.356	0.458	OK
Jonah Cox	CF	27	58	16	0.276	3	7	0.311	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.211	0.261	0.416	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	122	464	136	0.293	8	47	0.334	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.269	0.309	0.364	OK
Osleivis Basabe	3B	26	88	18	0.205	3	8	0.245	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.183	0.207	0.292	OK
Andrew Knizner	C	10	23	4	0.174	1	1	0.269	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.164	0.223	0.294	OK
Nate Furman	2B	9	16	1	0.062	0	0	0.167	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.105	0.196	0.174	OK
Christian Koss	SS	41	120	24	0.200	1	4	0.238	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.190	0.221	0.274	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	3	4	4	5	8	0.100

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	DH	113	440	122	0.277	22	67	0.358	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.300	0.366	0.483	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	83	313	76	0.243	13	36	0.347	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.267	0.356	0.394	OK
Matt Olson	1B	136	525	135	0.257	36	77	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.251	0.322	0.474	OK
Mauricio Dubón	SS	129	478	130	0.272	10	64	0.318	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.296	0.338	0.403	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	130	496	148	0.298	22	77	0.322	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.321	0.343	0.564	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	136	516	133	0.258	20	67	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.309	0.357	OK
Sean Murphy	C	16	55	12	0.218	2	4	0.246	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.292	0.323	0.557	OK
Austin Riley	3B	134	475	105	0.221	15	61	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.192	0.265	0.313	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	113	297	67	0.226	9	33	0.307	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.130	0.209	0.220	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	7	5	5	4	6	0.233

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Molina	Starter	1	4.1	0.00	0.488	2.2	1	3.0	4	4	4	2	2	69	3.0	2	4
Dylan Smith	Closer	32	26.4	3.75	1.477	13.0	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Jason Foley	Setup Man	14	11.9	5.29	1.765	8.3	11	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Trent Harris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	9	10.3	4.37	1.456	13.1	15	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	12	18.5	4.86	1.568	7.8	16	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	8	0.1	0	0
Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	30	26.8	6.72	1.903	7.4	22	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	7	0.1	0	1
Blade Tidwell	Reliever	13	36.5	4.68	1.260	7.6	31	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	20	1.0	0	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryce Elder	Starter	25	141.1	4.02	1.262	7.5	118	6.0	1	1	1	4	6	107	6.0	6	1
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	50	48.9	2.94	1.227	9.6	52	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	63	53.2	2.54	0.921	12.5	74	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	54.3	2.65	1.234	12.6	76	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	23	1.0	0	2

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies

BAL Recent Form

COL Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

COL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros

CHW Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins

DET Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

DET Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

MIA Recent Form

WAS Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

WAS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

MIL Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

MIL Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays

NYM Recent Form

TB Recent Form

NYM Season Quality

TB Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels

NYY Recent Form

LAA Recent Form

NYY Season Quality

LAA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers