MLB Predictions — August 30, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ OAK	8 - 6	8 - 6	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 8-6	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ NYY	5 - 4	5 - 4	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ MIN	7 - 4	7 - 4	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 7-4	69%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ CHC	4 - 7	4 - 7	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 7-4	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ ATL	3 - 6	3 - 6	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 6-3	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ NYM	4 - 5	4 - 5	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ CLE	5 - 6	5 - 6	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 6-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ DET	4 - 3	4 - 3	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 4-3	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ WAS	3 - 4	3 - 4	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ LAA	5 - 2	5 - 2	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 5-2	67%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ STL	5 - 4	5 - 4	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 5-4	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ TB	3 - 4	3 - 4	TB	TB	TB wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ TOR	5 - 4	5 - 4	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ MIL	4 - 5	4 - 5	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics

BAL 69-69 (4.55 RPG / 4.67 RA)

8 - 6

OAK 53-85 (4.33 RPG / 5.76 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 8-6 TARGET: BAL 8 - 6 OAK (BAL) Confidence: 55.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	2	8	10
OAK	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	8

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

BAL Season Quality

Record67-69

Win%0.493

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.154

OAK Season Quality

Record53-83

Win%0.390

Run Diff-188

RD/Game-1.382

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0469; margin adjustment: -0.4397; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Blaze Alexander	2B	73	228	70	0.307	4	29	0.361	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.324	0.366	0.454	OK
Pete Alonso	DH	135	507	137	0.270	32	91	0.361	5	5	2	1	0	0	3	0.400	0.280	0.355	0.538	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	133	534	119	0.223	21	56	0.306	5	4	3	1	0	1	0	0.750	0.208	0.285	0.337	OK
Coby Mayo	1B	104	330	73	0.221	19	55	0.287	5	3	0	1	0	2	1	0.000	0.238	0.290	0.469	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	35	118	29	0.246	6	26	0.291	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.300	0.342	0.491	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	115	377	84	0.223	8	52	0.295	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.235	0.300	0.386	OK
Christian Franklin	LF	14	34	5	0.147	0	0	0.293	5	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.165	0.288	0.270	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	19	51	4	0.078	0	0	0.175	4	4	1	1	4	0	1	0.250	0.133	0.197	0.230	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	108	282	63	0.223	12	34	0.308	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.278	0.354	0.548	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	37	10	8	8	5	12	0.270

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	91	323	87	0.269	6	26	0.339	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.320	0.374	OK
Jeff McNeil	DH	119	391	103	0.263	6	47	0.310	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.274	0.316	0.368	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	83	301	76	0.252	14	38	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.211	0.258	0.339	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	123	378	87	0.230	12	45	0.323	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.297	0.387	0.460	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	33	76	17	0.224	1	8	0.392	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.246	0.325	0.380	OK
Tommy White	1B	39	149	38	0.255	2	8	0.273	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.273	0.327	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	102	291	75	0.258	8	38	0.326	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.253	0.310	0.394	OK
Brian Serven	C	16	52	12	0.231	5	14	0.245	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.178	0.198	0.348	OK
Alika Williams	SS	57	156	41	0.263	2	11	0.290	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.254	0.277	0.413	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	6	6	2	10	0.229

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Bassitt	Starter	16	76.4	5.18	1.649	6.5	55	5.0	7	5	5	1	5	100	5.0	5	5
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	49	39.6	3.41	1.490	8.2	36	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.0	1	0
Yennier Cano	Setup Man	57	35.6	2.78	1.096	10.1	40	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	51.2	2.99	1.016	10.5	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	14.9	3.02	1.611	10.9	18	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Alex Hoppe	Middle Reliever	11	6.9	0.00	1.304	7.8	6	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.1	1	1

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jeffrey Springs	Starter	25	118.8	6.59	1.549	7.4	98	4.0	5	5	5	1	6	81	4.0	6	5
Hogan Harris	Closer	62	47.6	4.35	1.870	14.6	77	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	24	1.0	1	0
Elvis Alvarado	Setup Man	45	38.7	4.65	1.370	12.6	54	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	23	1.0	1	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	46	56.9	3.48	1.459	12.0	76	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	13	17.8	2.53	1.348	7.6	15	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	29	1.1	1	0
José Suarez	Middle Reliever	35	35.8	6.03	1.564	9.3	37	0.2	3	3	3	1	2	21	0.2	2	3

Game Summary

BAL wins 8-6

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

BOS 75-63 (4.48 RPG / 3.86 RA)

5 - 4

NYY 78-60 (4.51 RPG / 3.73 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 5-4 TARGET: BOS 5 - 4 NYY (BOS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	6
NYY	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	7

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

BOS Season Quality

Record74-62

Win%0.544

Run Diff99

RD/Game0.728

NYY Season Quality

Record77-59

Win%0.566

Run Diff102

RD/Game0.750

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.089; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	DH	32	117	29	0.248	1	5	0.367	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.347	0.329	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	129	520	147	0.283	15	68	0.319	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.236	0.259	0.339	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	133	507	130	0.256	23	70	0.336	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.305	0.441	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	122	430	117	0.272	26	79	0.382	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.318	0.416	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	15	53	9	0.170	1	4	0.254	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.224	0.285	0.356	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	126	431	106	0.246	12	59	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.217	0.282	0.313	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	127	482	99	0.205	19	62	0.264	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.158	0.206	0.312	OK
Trevor Story	SS	43	173	38	0.220	3	22	0.255	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.208	0.243	0.323	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	42	155	42	0.271	3	13	0.370	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.233	0.334	0.436	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	5	5	3	6	0.182

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	88	317	79	0.249	18	48	0.303	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.207	0.256	0.396	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	109	402	105	0.261	12	59	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.188	0.280	0.336	OK
Heliot Ramos	RF	21	61	9	0.148	1	4	0.297	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.217	0.275	0.356	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	24	89	26	0.292	5	12	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.313	0.346	0.592	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	74	201	48	0.239	10	29	0.276	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.145	0.185	0.247	OK
Trent Grisham	CF	113	403	84	0.208	17	56	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.169	0.269	0.312	OK
José Caballero	SS	112	368	88	0.239	13	47	0.292	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.244	0.283	0.325	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	125	435	100	0.230	18	54	0.307	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.254	0.334	0.423	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	32	66	16	0.242	1	7	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.157	0.173	0.265	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	4	4	3	8	0.206

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ranger Suarez	Starter	24	120.4	3.74	1.271	8.9	119	5.0	5	3	3	0	5	78	5.0	5	3
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	46	45.2	1.19	1.062	11.9	60	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Erik Miller	Setup Man	11	11.1	0.81	0.991	16.2	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	37	32.6	2.76	1.196	9.9	36	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	43.5	4.34	1.402	10.8	52	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	17	1.0	0	1

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Will Warren	Starter	27	129.1	4.39	1.448	9.3	133	5.0	4	5	5	3	4	89	5.0	4	5
David Bednar	Closer	55	55.6	2.91	1.097	10.5	65	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	70	55.6	2.43	1.493	13.9	86	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	68.5	1.84	1.153	8.1	62	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	43.2	4.38	1.227	4.8	23	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-4

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

CHW 72-65 (4.78 RPG / 4.48 RA)

7 - 4

MIN 66-72 (4.62 RPG / 4.95 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 7-4 TARGET: CHW 7 - 4 MIN (CHW) Confidence: 68.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	1	1	2	0	0	3	0	0	7	9
MIN	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	5

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak4W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak4L

CHW Season Quality

Record72-63

Win%0.533

Run Diff48

RD/Game0.356

MIN Season Quality

Record64-72

Win%0.471

Run Diff-60

RD/Game-0.441

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8087; margin adjustment: -0.3397; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	2B	116	402	108	0.269	8	40	0.366	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.267	0.339	0.396	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	102	364	79	0.217	29	59	0.360	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.217	0.361	0.464	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	134	498	124	0.249	29	76	0.362	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.280	0.403	0.458	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	120	368	91	0.247	14	69	0.307	4	3	1	1	3	1	0	0.333	0.324	0.377	0.529	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	69	254	57	0.224	5	35	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.313	0.363	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	129	487	104	0.214	29	77	0.294	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.217	0.280	0.432	OK
Tristan Peters	LF	125	370	103	0.278	12	52	0.341	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.309	0.370	0.565	OK
Brenton Doyle	CF	15	42	9	0.214	1	3	0.214	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.220	0.268	0.314	OK
Drew Romo	C	55	173	25	0.145	7	16	0.228	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.166	0.247	0.298	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	7	7	2	9	0.250

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	128	441	122	0.277	9	41	0.366	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.264	0.328	0.380	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	129	492	122	0.248	22	75	0.297	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.218	0.255	0.430	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	120	446	106	0.238	23	69	0.294	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.292	0.452	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	71	251	69	0.275	12	46	0.373	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.149	0.250	0.279	OK
Josh Bell	DH	132	487	123	0.253	17	83	0.315	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.249	0.302	0.389	OK
Trevor Larnach	LF	109	358	95	0.265	11	44	0.342	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.243	0.313	0.413	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	103	377	87	0.231	13	46	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.225	0.278	0.350	OK
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	20	70	22	0.314	3	6	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.276	0.318	0.435	OK
Walker Jenkins	CF	4	12	3	0.250	1	3	0.357	3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.285	0.375	0.558	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	4	4	3	9	0.156

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jordan Hicks	Starter	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	4.1	4	3	3	1	6	80	4.1	6	3
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	24	1.1	1	1
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	46	60.2	2.84	1.246	9.6	64	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.6	3.33	1.453	9.8	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Trevor Richards	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	31	40.3	3.80	1.067	10.0	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zebby Matthews	Starter	19	110.6	4.64	1.275	7.6	93	5.2	7	4	4	1	8	96	5.2	8	4
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	46	36.0	3.00	1.444	10.2	41	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	23	1.0	0	3
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	10	7.5	4.80	2.000	13.2	11	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	56.2	4.32	1.512	9.4	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

CHW wins 7-4

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

CIN 65-73 (4.13 RPG / 4.95 RA)

4 - 7

CHC 78-60 (5.38 RPG / 4.36 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 7-4 TARGET: CIN 4 - 7 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	6
CHC	0	3	2	0	0	0	2	0	x	7	5

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed7.5

Run Diff-21

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs6.8

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff27

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CIN Season Quality

Record64-72

Win%0.471

Run Diff-110

RD/Game-0.809

CHC Season Quality

Record77-59

Win%0.566

Run Diff129

RD/Game0.949

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4567; margin adjustment: 0.6118; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dane Myers	CF	85	228	57	0.250	5	21	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.241	0.314	0.325	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	116	457	125	0.274	21	60	0.356	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.329	0.399	0.509	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	135	519	138	0.266	30	102	0.336	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.280	0.343	0.544	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	106	344	87	0.253	14	49	0.331	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.254	0.319	0.412	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	105	367	77	0.210	20	59	0.301	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.213	0.300	0.461	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	106	379	84	0.222	21	52	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.181	0.286	0.333	OK
Matt McLain	2B	108	370	71	0.192	13	35	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.157	0.235	0.311	OK
Héctor Rodríguez	RF	20	66	15	0.227	4	9	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.236	0.305	0.434	OK
Edwin Arroyo	3B	43	140	32	0.229	0	5	0.268	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.234	0.263	0.275	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	4	4	1	7	0.182

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	136	524	149	0.284	38	91	0.378	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.312	0.371	0.827	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	119	456	128	0.281	24	80	0.373	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.319	0.398	0.521	OK
Michael Busch	1B	134	512	123	0.240	16	66	0.349	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.223	0.321	0.404	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	134	535	139	0.260	23	77	0.347	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.260	0.327	0.507	OK
Ian Happ	LF	129	473	105	0.222	23	61	0.325	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.179	0.269	0.381	OK
Nico Hoerner	SS	133	530	140	0.264	8	62	0.317	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.260	0.303	0.343	OK
Pedro Ramirez	2B	57	169	49	0.290	4	24	0.349	3	2	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.312	0.372	0.530	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	89	213	50	0.235	13	36	0.318	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.182	0.265	0.403	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	62	190	44	0.232	5	23	0.324	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.197	0.268	0.356	OK
TEAM TOTALS									31	29	5	7	7	2	5	0.172

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chase Burns	Starter	26	143.0	2.83	1.175	10.8	171	5.2	2	3	3	1	5	84	5.2	5	4
Emilio Pagán	Closer	34	32.4	4.17	1.080	9.4	34	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	10	0.1	0	3
Tejay Antone	Setup Man	45	38.6	3.73	1.244	10.0	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	68	56.0	3.05	1.536	10.8	67	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	11	1.0	0	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	27	147.3	4.09	1.168	9.0	148	5.1	5	3	3	1	4	86	5.1	4	3
Jacob Webb	Closer	60	54.3	3.15	1.344	10.8	65	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.2	1	0
Trent Thornton	Setup Man	42	39.2	3.67	1.301	6.0	26	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	10	7.7	7.01	1.948	10.5	9	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

CHC wins 7-4

Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves

COL 52-86 (4.67 RPG / 5.71 RA)

3 - 6

ATL 82-57 (4.61 RPG / 3.83 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 6-3 TARGET: COL 3 - 6 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
ATL	0	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	x	6	8

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed5.6

Run Diff-21

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff4

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak6W

COL Season Quality

Record52-84

Win%0.382

Run Diff-141

RD/Game-1.037

ATL Season Quality

Record81-55

Win%0.596

Run Diff116

RD/Game0.853

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.7106; margin adjustment: 2.737; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	117	450	130	0.289	14	69	0.328	5	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.267	0.300	0.421	OK
Connor Norby	2B	19	61	18	0.295	2	10	0.386	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.242	0.331	0.417	OK
Hunter Goodman	DH	118	440	112	0.255	36	73	0.322	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.308	0.529	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	131	466	136	0.292	13	60	0.384	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.270	0.392	0.379	OK
Willi Castro	3B	119	427	111	0.260	15	56	0.331	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.246	0.319	0.393	OK
Mickey Moniak	LF	96	341	86	0.252	21	60	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.188	0.227	0.373	OK
Troy Johnston	RF	110	350	101	0.289	4	46	0.354	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.190	0.263	0.332	OK
Brett Sullivan	C	62	186	43	0.231	7	29	0.270	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.187	0.236	0.347	OK
Ryan Ritter	SS	10	17	3	0.176	0	1	0.222	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.142	0.197	0.189	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	3	3	2	7	0.206

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	DH	114	444	124	0.279	22	68	0.359	4	4	2	1	4	0	1	0.500	0.303	0.369	0.492	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	84	317	77	0.243	13	36	0.346	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.257	0.344	0.391	OK
Matt Olson	1B	137	529	135	0.255	36	78	0.331	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.281	0.357	0.529	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	131	500	150	0.300	23	78	0.324	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.335	0.356	0.547	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	130	482	130	0.270	10	64	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.302	0.337	0.395	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	137	520	134	0.258	20	67	0.313	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.258	0.316	0.369	OK
Sean Murphy	C	17	58	13	0.224	2	4	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.312	0.330	0.482	OK
Austin Riley	3B	135	479	107	0.223	15	61	0.297	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.192	0.270	0.301	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	29	86	7	0.081	0	5	0.177	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.128	0.207	0.157	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	8	6	6	2	4	0.250

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mason Adams	Starter	2	9.0	3.00	1.444	10.0	10	3.2	4	4	4	1	4	66	3.2	4	4
Jordan Romano	Closer	18	16.3	2.21	1.227	8.8	16	2.1	3	2	2	1	0	42	2.1	0	2
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	64	46.2	3.12	1.385	8.0	41	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	28	2.0	0	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Mahle	Starter	5	29.4	1.53	0.986	9.8	32	5.2	6	3	3	2	4	104	5.2	4	3
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	50	48.9	2.94	1.227	9.6	52	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	64	53.3	2.70	0.957	12.5	74	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	54.3	2.65	1.234	12.6	76	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-3

Houston Astros @ New York Mets

HOU 70-68 (4.57 RPG / 4.86 RA)

4 - 5

NYM 62-76 (4.09 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 5-4 TARGET: HOU 4 - 5 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 54.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	5
NYM	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	3

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff-14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-9

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record68-68

Win%0.500

Run Diff-46

RD/Game-0.338

NYM Season Quality

Record61-75

Win%0.449

Run Diff-50

RD/Game-0.368

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0931; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	87	349	99	0.284	17	46	0.337	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.257	0.296	0.468	OK
Yordan Alvarez	LF	135	485	155	0.320	37	94	0.435	4	3	1	1	2	1	2	0.333	0.328	0.434	0.617	OK
Isaac Paredes	DH	130	472	119	0.252	17	73	0.353	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.252	0.358	0.402	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	110	428	106	0.248	14	41	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.245	0.303	0.367	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	24	93	16	0.172	3	10	0.238	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.228	0.283	0.377	OK
Christian Walker	1B	131	486	112	0.230	24	76	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.212	0.265	0.395	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	69	256	67	0.262	10	32	0.293	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.208	0.240	0.363	OK
Cam Smith	RF	125	434	93	0.214	17	49	0.279	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.116	0.180	0.254	OK
Nick Allen	3B	55	131	36	0.275	2	13	0.319	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.263	0.319	0.349	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	4	4	4	7	0.156

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	79	310	72	0.232	14	34	0.314	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.228	0.296	0.397	OK
Juan Soto	DH	85	298	85	0.285	22	54	0.404	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.386	0.481	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	132	526	139	0.264	14	66	0.310	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.211	0.255	0.331	OK
Carson Benge	RF	128	490	134	0.273	16	53	0.334	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.283	0.336	0.425	OK
Jared Young	1B	83	262	70	0.267	7	32	0.325	3	2	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.272	0.309	0.425	OK
Luis Robert Jr.	LF	55	193	43	0.223	10	23	0.296	3	3	1	1	3	0	0	0.333	0.232	0.310	0.427	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	96	351	85	0.242	7	28	0.314	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.217	0.280	0.313	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	115	408	91	0.223	14	43	0.285	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.254	0.316	0.346	OK
Luis Torrens	C	74	219	53	0.242	8	33	0.303	3	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.242	0.288	0.448	OK
TEAM TOTALS									30	27	3	5	5	2	9	0.111

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ethan Pecko	Starter	3	12.3	6.59	1.626	6.6	9	3.2	2	4	4	2	3	66	3.2	3	4
Josh Hader	Closer	36	35.4	0.51	0.621	12.2	48	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Steven Okert	Setup Man	68	58.8	2.45	1.003	10.4	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13	1.0	3	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	47.3	4.38	1.543	12.9	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	56.5	5.10	1.363	9.4	59	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
Kai-Wei Teng	Reliever	28	66.9	4.71	1.435	9.6	71	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zac Thornton	Starter	11	60.4	2.98	1.175	6.7	45	5.2	2	0	0	1	6	86	5.2	6	0
Kodai Senga	Closer	24	52.2	7.76	1.724	11.2	65	1.1	0	1	1	0	0	17	1.1	0	1
Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	20	22.1	2.44	0.905	10.2	25	1.0	3	3	3	3	1	34	1.0	1	3
Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	11	8.2	0.00	0.732	13.2	12	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-4

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians

KC 62-76 (4.28 RPG / 4.88 RA)

5 - 6

CLE 69-68 (4.07 RPG / 4.08 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 6-5 TARGET: KC 5 - 6 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	6
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	x	6	14

KC Recent Form

Win%0.900

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff33

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2L

KC Season Quality

Record62-75

Win%0.453

Run Diff-73

RD/Game-0.533

CLE Season Quality

Record68-68

Win%0.500

Run Diff-12

RD/Game-0.088

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1547; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	126	446	99	0.222	19	61	0.309	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.220	0.312	0.423	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	118	464	132	0.284	16	48	0.358	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.270	0.340	0.423	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	125	454	128	0.282	23	66	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.322	0.351	0.500	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	127	490	110	0.224	17	62	0.268	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.256	0.282	0.383	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	90	332	82	0.247	9	41	0.337	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.257	0.353	0.445	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	96	304	72	0.237	6	40	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.299	0.380	OK
John Rave	LF	29	83	18	0.217	3	8	0.278	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.232	0.286	0.419	OK
Tyler Tolbert	2B	46	114	35	0.307	3	8	0.375	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.308	0.375	0.420	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	75	231	54	0.234	6	24	0.284	3	3	1	1	3	0	1	0.333	0.221	0.261	0.339	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	5	5	1	6	0.182

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	122	438	120	0.274	2	27	0.373	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.287	0.377	0.345	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	111	417	123	0.295	13	59	0.366	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.255	0.321	0.387	OK
José Ramírez	DH	100	374	91	0.243	11	48	0.339	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.247	0.330	0.393	OK
Jo Adell	LF	23	85	21	0.247	4	21	0.337	5	5	2	1	3	0	1	0.400	0.227	0.276	0.379	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	21	76	18	0.237	3	15	0.262	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.161	0.231	0.282	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	99	368	87	0.236	9	41	0.325	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.226	0.305	0.324	OK
Angel Genao	3B	20	74	19	0.257	1	3	0.312	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.198	0.240	0.280	OK
Austin Hedges	C	63	184	47	0.255	5	21	0.322	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.219	0.286	0.357	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	128	452	113	0.250	10	53	0.307	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.229	0.270	0.319	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	14	6	6	3	6	0.368

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	28	151.2	5.12	1.448	7.0	118	5.1	8	2	2	2	5	101	5.1	5	2
Steven Cruz	Closer	49	47.0	4.79	1.383	10.7	56	1.1	3	1	1	1	0	30	1.1	0	1
Nate Pearson	Setup Man	15	14.2	0.63	0.915	8.2	13	1.1	3	3	3	0	1	26	1.1	1	3

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Parker Messick	Starter	27	154.7	2.56	1.060	9.4	161	6.0	3	2	2	1	6	92	6.0	6	2
Cade Smith	Closer	58	57.5	2.50	1.148	13.5	86	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	22	1.0	0	3
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	53	38.4	3.52	1.484	10.5	45	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	51	44.4	2.43	1.081	10.1	50	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-5

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers

LAD 82-55 (4.89 RPG / 3.77 RA)

4 - 3

DET 63-74 (4.36 RPG / 3.96 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: LAD 4 - 3 DET (LAD) Confidence: 54.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	6
DET	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	8

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs2.2

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff-16

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

LAD Season Quality

Record81-55

Win%0.596

Run Diff148

RD/Game1.088

DET Season Quality

Record63-72

Win%0.467

Run Diff70

RD/Game0.519

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.7494; margin adjustment: -0.3147; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	126	488	136	0.279	30	78	0.379	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.267	0.363	0.501	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	56	200	51	0.255	5	25	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.297	0.411	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	98	386	93	0.241	16	47	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.263	0.315	0.388	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	132	499	152	0.305	15	61	0.379	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.299	0.366	0.419	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	99	350	87	0.249	12	45	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.294	0.345	OK
Miguel Rojas	3B	78	183	51	0.279	3	20	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.267	0.309	0.377	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	125	451	103	0.228	11	57	0.320	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.231	0.324	0.341	OK
Enrique Hernández	CF	19	44	10	0.227	2	5	0.277	4	4	2	1	2	0	2	0.500	0.233	0.291	0.428	OK
Ben Rortvedt	C	11	27	5	0.185	0	1	0.185	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.095	0.107	0.150	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	4	4	2	4	0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gleyber Torres	2B	79	299	78	0.261	8	36	0.363	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.226	0.312	0.334	OK
Colt Keith	1B	123	352	90	0.256	9	31	0.312	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.225	0.283	0.351	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	132	506	139	0.275	14	58	0.376	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.345	0.382	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	126	479	120	0.251	26	82	0.314	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.216	0.251	0.359	OK
Brett Callahan	LF	12	30	8	0.267	1	6	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.152	0.193	0.320	OK
Zach McKinstry	RF	107	329	71	0.216	4	26	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.125	0.202	0.202	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	DH	86	244	66	0.270	8	34	0.313	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.241	0.291	0.371	OK
Max Clark	CF	28	98	23	0.235	2	13	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.297	0.443	OK
Javier Báez	SS	46	157	40	0.255	2	14	0.285	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.266	0.375	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	3	3	3	9	0.229

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Glasnow	Starter	9	51.2	2.81	0.820	10.9	62	5.2	8	3	3	2	6	115	5.2	6	3
Tanner Scott	Closer	59	50.1	2.69	1.038	12.0	67	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	55	48.1	3.18	1.123	11.8	63	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.1	1	0
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	16.9	2.13	1.006	9.6	18	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Framber Valdez	Starter	27	148.1	4.44	1.425	7.0	116	5.0	5	3	3	0	2	78	5.0	2	3
Kenley Jansen	Closer	39	33.1	3.81	1.208	11.1	41	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	59	52.5	3.60	1.543	8.6	50	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	47.3	3.04	1.649	8.2	43	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	2.0	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

MIA 69-69 (4.33 RPG / 4.24 RA)

3 - 4

WAS 66-74 (5.19 RPG / 5.05 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 4-3 TARGET: MIA 3 - 4 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 57.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	6
WAS	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	x	4	7

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-8

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

MIA Season Quality

Record68-68

Win%0.500

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.081

WAS Season Quality

Record65-73

Win%0.471

Run Diff20

RD/Game0.145

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0638; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Heriberto Hernández	LF	104	351	81	0.231	22	58	0.309	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.257	0.318	0.575	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	134	538	164	0.305	10	61	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.272	0.305	0.381	OK
Agustín Ramírez	DH	50	165	39	0.236	2	17	0.328	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.217	0.315	0.313	OK
Esteury Ruiz	RF	72	168	40	0.238	6	11	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.156	0.220	0.285	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	135	500	141	0.282	6	51	0.361	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.251	0.321	0.322	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	109	364	102	0.280	6	51	0.315	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.289	0.331	0.426	OK
Leo Jiménez	1B	61	166	33	0.199	2	14	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.293	0.271	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	129	437	92	0.211	8	31	0.331	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0.500	0.216	0.323	0.339	OK
Brian Navarreto	C	18	41	5	0.122	1	2	0.196	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.084	0.135	0.203	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	3	3	4	10	0.182

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
CJ Abrams	2B	131	498	133	0.267	29	92	0.343	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.308	0.447	OK
Abimelec Ortiz	DH	27	87	19	0.218	5	10	0.261	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.279	0.438	OK
Andrés Chaparro	1B	59	146	36	0.247	9	33	0.341	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.249	0.330	0.511	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	138	526	135	0.257	20	80	0.309	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.279	0.341	0.512	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	85	322	71	0.220	10	34	0.289	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.252	0.296	0.372	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	98	262	63	0.240	3	24	0.331	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.325	0.310	OK
Harry Ford	C	22	69	13	0.188	3	8	0.291	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.204	0.279	0.416	OK
Jacob Young	CF	112	374	92	0.246	10	41	0.308	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.237	0.293	0.370	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	122	399	86	0.216	1	35	0.295	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.193	0.268	0.224	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	7	4	4	3	7	0.226

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Janson Junk	Starter	21	100.2	4.22	1.337	6.3	70	5.0	5	2	2	3	6	92	5.0	6	2
Calvin Faucher	Closer	58	50.2	4.48	1.534	11.5	64	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	34	25.3	4.62	1.542	12.1	34	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	23	1.1	0	2

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Alvarez	Starter	21	86.7	3.63	1.373	8.9	86	5.0	1	0	0	2	8	86	5.0	8	0
Clayton Beeter	Closer	45	39.9	3.38	1.404	10.2	45	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	44	37.8	4.29	1.376	9.5	40	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Will Dion	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	7	16.5	2.18	0.909	9.3	17	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1
Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	11.9	10.59	2.017	10.6	14	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	18	0.2	1	1

Game Summary

WAS wins 4-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Angels

PHI 78-60 (4.52 RPG / 4.3 RA)

5 - 2

LAA 53-85 (4.09 RPG / 4.62 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 5-2 TARGET: PHI 5 - 2 LAA (PHI) Confidence: 66.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	5	7
LAA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	7

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff17

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak6L

PHI Season Quality

Record76-60

Win%0.559

Run Diff27

RD/Game0.199

LAA Season Quality

Record52-84

Win%0.382

Run Diff-79

RD/Game-0.581

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9531; margin adjustment: -0.4003; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	130	492	119	0.242	39	81	0.355	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.243	0.331	0.481	OK
Trea Turner	SS	130	543	132	0.243	17	51	0.295	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.288	0.346	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	136	481	129	0.268	27	79	0.387	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.291	0.415	0.534	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	130	488	119	0.244	14	75	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.262	0.313	0.386	OK
Edmundo Sosa	3B	68	199	47	0.236	7	40	0.272	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.269	0.295	0.452	OK
Bryan De La Cruz	LF	18	45	15	0.333	2	11	0.373	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.355	0.385	0.539	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	131	456	118	0.259	10	59	0.335	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.237	0.307	0.361	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	100	343	77	0.224	10	45	0.297	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.217	0.279	0.356	OK
Derek Hill	CF	34	94	25	0.266	5	18	0.296	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.196	0.235	0.320	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	5	5	3	7	0.206

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Wade Meckler	LF	69	218	64	0.294	3	22	0.366	5	5	1	0	0	0	3	0.200	0.256	0.325	0.334	OK
Mike Trout	DH	119	432	104	0.241	20	50	0.379	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.226	0.354	0.392	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	92	334	83	0.249	9	57	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.226	0.268	0.385	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	C	24	92	15	0.163	0	4	0.214	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.200	0.262	0.305	OK
Christian Moore	2B	15	53	10	0.189	1	4	0.267	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.173	0.239	0.329	OK
Josh Lowe	RF	88	261	55	0.211	10	27	0.270	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.216	0.274	0.351	OK
Jose Siri	CF	68	169	39	0.231	7	23	0.284	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.183	0.236	0.311	OK
Oswald Peraza	SS	98	311	70	0.225	7	24	0.280	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.195	0.240	0.307	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	59	211	46	0.218	6	24	0.263	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.173	0.221	0.290	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	2	2	3	9	0.206

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	23	128.7	3.36	1.103	10.8	154	5.1	4	1	1	3	6	91	5.1	6	1
Jhoan Duran	Closer	51	49.4	1.28	1.012	12.6	69	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	52	45.7	3.15	1.094	12.2	62	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	46.9	4.41	1.471	10.9	57	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	20	1.2	2	0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yusei Kikuchi	Starter	9	42.3	5.74	1.513	9.1	43	4.1	6	5	5	0	5	80	4.1	5	5
Ben Joyce	Closer	9	7.4	3.65	1.081	14.6	12	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	9	6.6	4.09	1.667	15.0	11	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	24	1.1	0	0
José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	44	39.9	3.83	1.529	12.4	55	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	21	1.0	0	0
Luke Murphy	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	12	10.0	1.80	1.300	10.8	12	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-2

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals

PIT 67-71 (4.85 RPG / 4.66 RA)

5 - 4

STL 68-70 (4.42 RPG / 4.53 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 5-4 TARGET: PIT 5 - 4 STL (PIT) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	5	11
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	4	9

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs2.6

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-2

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed7.2

Run Diff-24

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

PIT Season Quality

Record66-71

Win%0.482

Run Diff25

RD/Game0.182

STL Season Quality

Record68-69

Win%0.496

Run Diff-14

RD/Game-0.102

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3024; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jared Triolo	SS	92	282	70	0.248	3	25	0.323	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.287	0.342	0.350	OK
Oneil Cruz	DH	74	289	76	0.263	17	52	0.351	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.344	0.488	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	135	499	132	0.265	15	66	0.372	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.251	0.343	0.382	OK
Rafael Flores Jr.	C	25	81	18	0.222	7	17	0.300	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.202	0.264	0.472	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	125	490	122	0.249	28	82	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.301	0.468	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	62	205	49	0.239	13	36	0.354	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.242	0.355	0.485	OK
Jake Mangum	CF	103	365	106	0.290	4	28	0.343	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.244	0.284	0.316	OK
Spencer Horwitz	1B	95	324	80	0.247	10	38	0.349	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.233	0.310	0.339	OK
Nick Yorke	3B	32	102	21	0.206	1	12	0.255	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.128	0.167	0.188	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	38	11	5	5	2	10	0.289

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Bryan Torres	LF	49	117	31	0.265	3	16	0.323	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.268	0.316	0.376	OK
Iván Herrera	C	134	505	121	0.240	13	53	0.351	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	0.600	0.231	0.320	0.335	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	133	509	146	0.287	21	97	0.351	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.268	0.323	0.408	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	131	509	145	0.285	25	92	0.343	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.266	0.316	0.432	OK
Nolan Gorman	DH	67	215	41	0.191	8	27	0.272	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.183	0.265	0.332	OK
José Fermín	2B	94	269	66	0.245	6	34	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.236	0.290	0.349	OK
Nathan Church	CF	105	348	84	0.241	10	45	0.285	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.257	0.304	0.402	OK
Ramón Urías	3B	25	73	11	0.151	3	7	0.241	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.102	0.171	0.224	OK
Thomas Saggese	SS	28	81	17	0.210	1	4	0.264	4	4	2	1	4	0	1	0.500	0.199	0.258	0.330	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	4	4	1	11	0.250

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	27	158.0	3.70	1.101	9.3	164	6.1	4	0	0	0	9	104	6.1	9	0
Mason Montgomery	Closer	56	48.2	3.17	1.183	16.6	89	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	24	1.0	1	2
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	8	7.2	5.00	1.528	12.5	10	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	28	1.0	1	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	54.8	2.96	1.113	11.2	68	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	18	0.2	0	2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Liberatore	Starter	27	130.7	5.58	1.507	9.7	141	5.0	5	2	2	1	6	82	5.0	6	2
Riley O'Brien	Closer	56	52.1	4.15	1.286	9.3	54	1.0	4	2	2	1	1	27	1.0	1	2
George Soriano	Setup Man	61	51.3	4.74	1.462	10.2	58	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	45.4	4.96	1.586	11.1	56	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1
Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	55.6	4.05	1.619	7.1	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-4

San Diego Padres @ Tampa Bay Rays

SD 73-65 (4.26 RPG / 4.15 RA)

3 - 4

TB 82-55 (4.51 RPG / 4.12 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: SD 3 - 4 TB (TB) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	3	9
TB	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	4	9

SD Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

SD Season Quality

Record72-64

Win%0.529

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.081

TB Season Quality

Record81-54

Win%0.600

Run Diff53

RD/Game0.393

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2854; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	134	534	150	0.281	17	66	0.347	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.256	0.305	0.418	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	85	298	65	0.218	4	26	0.302	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.207	0.275	0.287	OK
Manny Machado	3B	135	504	111	0.220	24	74	0.307	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.208	0.293	0.334	OK
Ty France	1B	106	360	105	0.292	19	60	0.358	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.250	0.325	0.476	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	134	523	126	0.241	22	70	0.294	5	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.220	0.270	0.444	OK
Luis Campusano	C	52	150	43	0.287	5	23	0.389	5	3	1	0	0	2	1	0.333	0.210	0.314	0.350	OK
Gavin Sheets	DH	121	356	75	0.211	16	46	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.203	0.283	0.358	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	131	447	97	0.217	11	51	0.316	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.137	0.240	0.198	OK
Luis Rengifo	LF	38	127	37	0.291	4	17	0.375	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.200	0.276	0.263	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	36	9	3	3	5	9	0.250

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	131	519	157	0.303	20	75	0.370	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.296	0.350	0.458	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	133	503	140	0.278	17	79	0.361	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.264	0.330	0.448	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	136	518	146	0.282	37	87	0.369	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.297	0.376	0.540	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	73	197	51	0.259	11	36	0.321	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.173	0.234	0.319	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	125	483	150	0.311	0	31	0.338	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.318	0.349	0.376	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	83	277	75	0.271	9	42	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.272	0.303	0.425	OK
Jorge Mateo	2B	9	26	5	0.192	1	5	0.267	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.226	0.276	0.372	OK
Nick Fortes	C	87	260	68	0.262	4	29	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.157	0.197	0.279	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	106	335	73	0.218	2	32	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.244	0.324	0.306	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	9	4	4	1	7	0.257

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robbie Ray	Starter	5	26.1	3.45	1.379	6.6	19	5.2	4	1	1	1	6	99	5.2	6	1
Mason Miller	Closer	55	54.3	1.33	0.884	17.2	104	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.0	0	0
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	63	65.6	2.88	1.174	12.3	90	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.1	1	1
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	52.6	2.22	1.198	11.1	65	1.2	4	2	2	0	0	37	1.0	0	2

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	26	145.4	2.97	0.935	9.2	149	6.0	4	2	2	2	6	108	6.0	6	2
Bryan Baker	Closer	55	52.6	1.54	0.875	10.3	60	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	32	1.0	0	0
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	59	54.1	2.33	0.998	8.3	50	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	9	11.1	2.43	0.901	9.7	12	1.0	4	1	1	0	2	25	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3

Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays

SEA 64-74 (3.9 RPG / 4.43 RA)

5 - 4

TOR 68-70 (3.97 RPG / 4.33 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 5-4 TARGET: SEA 5 - 4 TOR (SEA) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	5	8
TOR	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	4	7

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed6.1

Run Diff-20

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

SEA Season Quality

Record64-72

Win%0.471

Run Diff-65

RD/Game-0.478

TOR Season Quality

Record67-70

Win%0.489

Run Diff-57

RD/Game-0.416

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1184; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Randy Arozarena	LF	130	482	132	0.274	21	62	0.371	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.223	0.314	0.391	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	120	380	97	0.255	20	61	0.325	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.254	0.304	0.452	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	126	501	122	0.244	20	57	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.214	0.261	0.351	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	103	368	63	0.171	20	54	0.285	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.236	0.353	0.615	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	128	498	133	0.267	10	47	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.291	0.333	0.355	OK
Taylor Ward	RF	19	66	8	0.121	0	4	0.227	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.203	0.332	0.282	OK
Cole Young	2B	137	500	122	0.244	16	57	0.306	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.194	0.244	0.339	OK
J.P. Crawford	SS	92	325	68	0.209	10	30	0.327	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.203	0.303	0.300	OK
Brock Rodden	3B	13	40	6	0.150	0	3	0.239	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.160	0.252	0.267	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	5	5	2	6	0.229

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brett Bateman	CF	19	78	26	0.333	0	7	0.384	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.303	0.341	0.396	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	122	462	119	0.258	7	48	0.327	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.228	0.293	0.310	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	59	209	58	0.278	8	32	0.347	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.245	0.310	0.357	OK
George Springer	DH	103	390	99	0.254	14	44	0.330	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.347	0.409	0.565	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	99	329	87	0.264	10	32	0.318	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.189	0.243	0.347	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	132	486	111	0.228	28	78	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.206	0.290	0.414	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	121	402	97	0.241	8	51	0.286	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.171	0.198	0.250	OK
Charles McAdoo	2B	23	73	17	0.233	2	10	0.278	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.188	0.243	0.308	OK
Myles Straw	LF	103	245	56	0.229	3	21	0.282	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.310	0.380	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	4	4	1	9	0.206

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Gilbert	Starter	27	156.6	3.51	1.060	9.5	166	6.0	3	1	1	1	6	89	6.0	6	1
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	51	47.1	4.20	1.231	15.3	80	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	61	49.1	4.40	1.568	8.1	44	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	51.2	3.87	1.621	10.7	61	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	21	1.0	2	2

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Scherzer	Starter	13	55.6	6.31	1.421	7.4	46	4.2	7	4	4	2	4	96	4.2	4	4
Louis Varland	Closer	62	64.0	1.27	1.047	11.8	84	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	64	57.0	2.05	1.298	5.5	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	76.8	3.16	1.185	9.0	77	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	71	41.7	3.88	1.535	12.7	59	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11	0.2	1	1

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

Texas Rangers @ Milwaukee Brewers

TEX 68-70 (4.07 RPG / 4.39 RA)

4 - 5

MIL 85-53 (4.97 RPG / 3.79 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 4 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 57.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	5
MIL	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	x	5	8

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak4L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff22

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak4W

TEX Season Quality

Record66-70

Win%0.485

Run Diff-54

RD/Game-0.397

MIL Season Quality

Record85-51

Win%0.625

Run Diff180

RD/Game1.324

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.522; margin adjustment: 2.4352; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	124	352	82	0.233	24	49	0.324	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.150	0.241	0.332	OK
Corey Seager	SS	77	285	63	0.221	13	34	0.323	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.221	0.307	0.378	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	86	330	83	0.252	15	36	0.332	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.234	0.326	0.411	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	132	504	133	0.264	14	53	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.223	0.278	0.383	OK
Ezequiel Duran	2B	127	451	123	0.273	15	73	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.267	0.329	0.424	OK
Jake Burger	1B	130	475	113	0.238	23	78	0.300	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.232	0.297	0.461	OK
Evan Carter	CF	116	334	64	0.192	8	33	0.287	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.133	0.220	0.229	OK
Cody Freeman	3B	22	60	18	0.300	1	6	0.373	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.295	0.374	OK
Elias Díaz	C	51	154	35	0.227	4	19	0.253	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.118	0.144	0.246	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	4	4	4	6	0.156

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brice Turang	2B	124	488	127	0.260	17	79	0.351	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.206	0.290	0.376	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	116	381	97	0.255	8	48	0.345	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.328	0.413	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	119	403	110	0.273	22	74	0.387	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.299	0.421	0.520	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	101	418	119	0.285	20	57	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.282	0.333	0.554	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	93	355	82	0.231	9	45	0.315	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.364	0.427	0.519	OK
Gary Sánchez	C	73	199	41	0.206	11	34	0.340	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.165	0.270	0.305	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	90	287	69	0.240	4	34	0.305	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.267	0.325	0.370	OK
David Hamilton	3B	97	293	70	0.239	4	24	0.305	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.233	0.289	0.337	OK
Joey Ortiz	SS	98	297	74	0.249	7	37	0.313	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.196	0.270	0.327	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	8	5	5	3	8	0.250

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kumar Rocker	Starter	26	125.7	4.58	1.472	8.9	124	5.0	5	3	3	2	5	98	5.0	5	3
Jacob Latz	Closer	47	57.2	1.26	0.717	10.4	66	1.1	2	2	2	0	2	35	1.1	2	2
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	43	42.6	2.96	1.221	7.4	35	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	9.9	4.55	1.818	10.0	11	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12	0.2	0	0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dustin May	Starter	5	19.2	6.56	1.562	7.5	16	4.2	2	3	3	3	4	77	4.2	4	3
Trevor Megill	Closer	52	51.4	1.58	0.817	10.0	57	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.0	2	1
Aaron Ashby	Setup Man	63	68.0	3.57	1.515	13.8	104	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Chad Patrick	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	47	89.1	3.33	1.291	8.4	83	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	11	8.8	5.11	1.705	8.2	8	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	15	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics

BAL Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

BOS Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

CHW Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

CIN Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves

COL Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

COL Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ New York Mets

HOU Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians

KC Recent Form

CLE Recent Form

KC Season Quality

CLE Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Detroit Tigers