| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ SF | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | SF | SF | SF wins 6-5 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BAL @ OAK | 6 - 5 | 6 - 5 | BAL | BAL | BAL wins 6-5 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BOS @ NYY | 4 - 6 | 4 - 6 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 6-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHW @ MIN | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 6-5 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CIN @ CHC | 5 - 7 | 5 - 7 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 7-5 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| COL @ ATL | 3 - 8 | 3 - 8 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 8-3 | 85% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| HOU @ NYM | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | NYM | NYM | NYM wins 4-3 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| KC @ CLE | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | CLE | CLE | CLE wins 5-4 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| LAD @ DET | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 4-1 | 67% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIA @ WAS | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 5-4 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PHI @ LAA | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | LAA | LAA | LAA wins 5-4 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PIT @ STL | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 5-3 | 60% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SD @ TB | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | TB | TB | TB wins 5-4 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SEA @ TOR | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 4-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TEX @ MIL | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 6-2 | 85% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.4179; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 20 | 61 | 14 | 0.230 | 3 | 11 | 0.338 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.302 | 0.342 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 135 | 504 | 123 | 0.244 | 19 | 61 | 0.341 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.294 | 0.403 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | DH | 108 | 389 | 118 | 0.303 | 11 | 67 | 0.382 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.381 | 0.486 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 134 | 483 | 123 | 0.255 | 9 | 47 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.311 | 0.402 | 0.402 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 129 | 450 | 107 | 0.238 | 21 | 65 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.276 | 0.399 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | 1B | 75 | 239 | 58 | 0.243 | 9 | 35 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.233 | 0.301 | 0.362 | OK |
| James McCann | C | 35 | 115 | 34 | 0.296 | 4 | 21 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.296 | 0.395 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 2B | 115 | 407 | 103 | 0.253 | 9 | 66 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.275 | 0.377 | OK |
| Jordan Lawlar | CF | 19 | 59 | 16 | 0.271 | 2 | 7 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.302 | 0.415 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jonah Cox | CF | 28 | 63 | 18 | 0.286 | 4 | 9 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.288 | 0.501 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 137 | 513 | 130 | 0.253 | 29 | 78 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.351 | 0.559 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 92 | 328 | 86 | 0.262 | 15 | 43 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.361 | 0.455 | OK |
| Andrew Knizner | C | 11 | 27 | 6 | 0.222 | 1 | 1 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.285 | 0.347 | 0.510 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 123 | 468 | 136 | 0.291 | 8 | 47 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.184 | 0.219 | 0.283 | OK |
| Shay Whitcomb | 3B | 8 | 27 | 2 | 0.074 | 1 | 3 | 0.074 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.149 | 0.158 | 0.348 | OK |
| Turner Hill | LF | 12 | 33 | 9 | 0.273 | 0 | 8 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.296 | 0.364 | 0.453 | OK |
| Christian Koss | SS | 42 | 123 | 24 | 0.195 | 1 | 4 | 0.233 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.252 | 0.266 | OK |
| Osleivis Basabe | 2B | 27 | 92 | 19 | 0.207 | 4 | 9 | 0.245 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.210 | 0.224 | 0.332 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kohl Drake | Starter | 4 | 16.2 | 5.56 | 1.605 | 7.2 | 13 | 4.1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 81 | 4.1 | 4 | 6 |
| Juan Morillo | Closer | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Setup Man | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Blade Tidwell | Starter | 13 | 36.5 | 4.68 | 1.260 | 7.6 | 31 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 72 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Dylan Smith | Closer | 33 | 27.4 | 3.61 | 1.496 | 12.8 | 39 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sam Hentges | Setup Man | 39 | 26.0 | 4.15 | 2.000 | 12.1 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 15 | 13.0 | 4.85 | 1.769 | 8.3 | 12 | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Trent Harris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 9 | 10.3 | 4.37 | 1.456 | 13.1 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
SF wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| OAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
Quality edge: -0.9243; margin adjustment: -0.3882; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Blaze Alexander | SS | 73 | 228 | 70 | 0.307 | 4 | 29 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.328 | 0.370 | 0.461 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | DH | 135 | 507 | 137 | 0.270 | 32 | 91 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.297 | 0.367 | 0.566 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 81 | 260 | 58 | 0.223 | 6 | 27 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.298 | 0.354 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 1B | 104 | 330 | 73 | 0.221 | 19 | 55 | 0.287 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.275 | 0.467 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | 35 | 118 | 29 | 0.246 | 6 | 26 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.314 | 0.341 | 0.532 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | RF | 115 | 377 | 84 | 0.223 | 8 | 52 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.280 | 0.361 | OK |
| Christian Franklin | CF | 14 | 34 | 5 | 0.147 | 0 | 0 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.320 | 0.280 | OK |
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 78 | 238 | 60 | 0.252 | 6 | 31 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.348 | 0.443 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 19 | 51 | 4 | 0.078 | 0 | 0 | 0.175 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.149 | 0.202 | 0.234 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Henry Bolte | CF | 91 | 323 | 87 | 0.269 | 6 | 26 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.278 | 0.336 | 0.383 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 119 | 391 | 103 | 0.263 | 6 | 47 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.215 | 0.255 | 0.322 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 83 | 301 | 76 | 0.252 | 14 | 38 | 0.318 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.198 | 0.254 | 0.338 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 123 | 378 | 87 | 0.230 | 12 | 45 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.291 | 0.380 | 0.474 | OK |
| Tommy White | 1B | 39 | 149 | 38 | 0.255 | 2 | 8 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.296 | 0.365 | OK |
| Max Muncy | DH | 70 | 220 | 48 | 0.218 | 7 | 25 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.278 | 0.380 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | LF | 102 | 291 | 75 | 0.258 | 8 | 38 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.309 | 0.393 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 75 | 254 | 53 | 0.209 | 11 | 33 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.267 | 0.329 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 57 | 156 | 41 | 0.263 | 2 | 11 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.292 | 0.433 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Young | Starter | 23 | 126.6 | 3.48 | 1.374 | 7.3 | 103 | 5.1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 99 | 5.1 | 4 | 4 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 49 | 39.6 | 3.41 | 1.490 | 8.2 | 36 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yennier Cano | Setup Man | 57 | 35.6 | 2.78 | 1.096 | 10.1 | 40 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Garcia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 64 | 51.2 | 2.99 | 1.016 | 10.5 | 60 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Lopez | Starter | 22 | 96.2 | 4.96 | 1.507 | 9.0 | 96 | 5.0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 99 | 5.0 | 4 | 6 |
| Hogan Harris | Closer | 62 | 47.6 | 4.35 | 1.870 | 14.6 | 77 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Setup Man | 45 | 38.7 | 4.65 | 1.370 | 12.6 | 54 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 46 | 56.9 | 3.48 | 1.459 | 12.0 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Blewett | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 13 | 17.8 | 2.53 | 1.348 | 7.6 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
BAL wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| NYY | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.007; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Sogard | SS | 42 | 155 | 42 | 0.271 | 3 | 13 | 0.370 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.376 | 0.409 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 129 | 520 | 147 | 0.283 | 15 | 68 | 0.319 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.248 | 0.279 | 0.364 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 133 | 507 | 130 | 0.256 | 23 | 70 | 0.336 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.181 | 0.266 | 0.321 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 122 | 430 | 117 | 0.272 | 26 | 79 | 0.382 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.263 | 0.347 | 0.485 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 15 | 53 | 9 | 0.170 | 1 | 4 | 0.254 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.195 | 0.262 | 0.327 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 126 | 431 | 106 | 0.246 | 12 | 59 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.305 | 0.346 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | DH | 45 | 137 | 38 | 0.277 | 6 | 20 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.306 | 0.396 | 0.681 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 127 | 482 | 99 | 0.205 | 19 | 62 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.266 | 0.403 | OK |
| Anthony Seigler | 2B | 46 | 143 | 35 | 0.245 | 3 | 13 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.340 | 0.419 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 88 | 317 | 79 | 0.249 | 18 | 48 | 0.303 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.234 | 0.285 | 0.382 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 129 | 483 | 122 | 0.253 | 34 | 82 | 0.350 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.263 | 0.357 | 0.512 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 109 | 402 | 105 | 0.261 | 12 | 59 | 0.346 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.333 | 0.433 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | RF | 21 | 61 | 9 | 0.148 | 1 | 4 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.221 | 0.262 | 0.353 | OK |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 113 | 403 | 84 | 0.208 | 17 | 56 | 0.304 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.289 | 0.363 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 23 | 79 | 20 | 0.253 | 2 | 6 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.295 | 0.355 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 125 | 435 | 100 | 0.230 | 18 | 54 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.311 | 0.385 | 0.516 | OK |
| José Caballero | 3B | 112 | 368 | 88 | 0.239 | 13 | 47 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.263 | 0.332 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 101 | 285 | 52 | 0.182 | 10 | 26 | 0.272 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.183 | 0.273 | 0.279 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Patrick Sandoval | Starter | 9 | 43.6 | 4.33 | 1.766 | 9.9 | 48 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 101 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 46 | 45.2 | 1.19 | 1.062 | 11.9 | 60 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Erik Miller | Setup Man | 11 | 11.1 | 0.81 | 0.991 | 16.2 | 20 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyron Guerrero | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 37 | 32.6 | 2.76 | 1.196 | 9.9 | 36 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cam Schlittler | Starter | 28 | 159.7 | 2.14 | 0.996 | 11.3 | 201 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 108 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 55 | 55.6 | 2.91 | 1.097 | 10.5 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 70 | 55.6 | 2.43 | 1.493 | 13.9 | 86 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 53 | 68.5 | 1.84 | 1.153 | 8.1 | 62 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
Quality edge: -0.6056; margin adjustment: -0.2544; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 116 | 402 | 108 | 0.269 | 8 | 40 | 0.366 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.344 | 0.408 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 102 | 364 | 79 | 0.217 | 29 | 59 | 0.360 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.204 | 0.343 | 0.451 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 134 | 498 | 124 | 0.249 | 29 | 76 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.337 | 0.457 | 0.519 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 120 | 368 | 91 | 0.247 | 14 | 69 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.323 | 0.415 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 69 | 254 | 57 | 0.224 | 5 | 35 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.318 | 0.380 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 129 | 487 | 104 | 0.214 | 29 | 77 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.268 | 0.396 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 130 | 487 | 132 | 0.271 | 12 | 51 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.329 | 0.381 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 125 | 370 | 103 | 0.278 | 12 | 52 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.367 | 0.416 | 0.753 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 55 | 173 | 25 | 0.145 | 7 | 16 | 0.228 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.255 | 0.304 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0.167 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luke Keaschall | RF | 128 | 441 | 122 | 0.277 | 9 | 41 | 0.366 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.264 | 0.329 | 0.388 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 129 | 492 | 122 | 0.248 | 22 | 75 | 0.297 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.251 | 0.288 | 0.515 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 71 | 251 | 69 | 0.275 | 12 | 46 | 0.373 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.332 | 0.408 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 120 | 446 | 106 | 0.238 | 23 | 69 | 0.294 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.293 | 0.444 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 132 | 487 | 123 | 0.253 | 17 | 83 | 0.315 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.600 | 0.227 | 0.282 | 0.369 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 103 | 377 | 87 | 0.231 | 13 | 46 | 0.298 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.261 | 0.332 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 109 | 358 | 95 | 0.265 | 11 | 44 | 0.342 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.219 | 0.282 | 0.378 | OK |
| Kaelen Culpepper | SS | 20 | 70 | 22 | 0.314 | 3 | 6 | 0.372 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.324 | 0.358 | 0.564 | OK |
| Player-805805 | CF | 4 | 12 | 3 | 0.250 | 1 | 3 | 0.357 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.298 | 0.391 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 48 | 43 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 0.302 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Luis Castillo | Starter | 5 | 21.4 | 6.73 | 1.729 | 8.4 | 20 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 106 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 46 | 60.2 | 2.84 | 1.246 | 9.6 | 64 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 33.7 | 4.54 | 1.780 | 13.1 | 49 | 0.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.6 | 3.33 | 1.453 | 9.8 | 44 | 1.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| José Urquidy | Reliever | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dean Kremer | Starter | 5 | 26.2 | 4.47 | 1.145 | 7.9 | 23 | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 86 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 46 | 36.0 | 3.00 | 1.444 | 10.2 | 41 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 10 | 7.5 | 4.80 | 2.000 | 13.2 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 53 | 56.2 | 4.32 | 1.512 | 9.4 | 59 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 13 | 9.8 | 0.92 | 1.020 | 8.3 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIN wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
Quality edge: 1.2745; margin adjustment: 0.5353; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dane Myers | CF | 85 | 228 | 57 | 0.250 | 5 | 21 | 0.340 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.271 | 0.343 | 0.361 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 116 | 457 | 125 | 0.274 | 21 | 60 | 0.356 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.305 | 0.362 | 0.497 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 135 | 519 | 138 | 0.266 | 30 | 102 | 0.336 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.318 | 0.430 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | DH | 106 | 344 | 87 | 0.253 | 14 | 49 | 0.331 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.329 | 0.401 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | 3B | 105 | 367 | 77 | 0.210 | 20 | 59 | 0.301 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.299 | 0.403 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 106 | 379 | 84 | 0.222 | 21 | 52 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.207 | 0.314 | 0.400 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 108 | 370 | 71 | 0.192 | 13 | 35 | 0.286 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.175 | 0.259 | 0.345 | OK |
| Jose Trevino | C | 38 | 122 | 28 | 0.230 | 5 | 15 | 0.234 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.217 | 0.311 | OK |
| Héctor Rodríguez | RF | 20 | 66 | 15 | 0.227 | 4 | 9 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.284 | 0.456 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 40 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 136 | 524 | 149 | 0.284 | 38 | 91 | 0.378 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.260 | 0.336 | 0.532 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 119 | 456 | 128 | 0.281 | 24 | 80 | 0.373 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.249 | 0.348 | 0.412 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 134 | 512 | 123 | 0.240 | 16 | 66 | 0.349 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.355 | 0.416 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 134 | 535 | 139 | 0.260 | 23 | 77 | 0.347 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.208 | 0.296 | 0.362 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 129 | 473 | 105 | 0.222 | 23 | 61 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.168 | 0.269 | 0.387 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 133 | 530 | 140 | 0.264 | 8 | 62 | 0.317 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.253 | 0.299 | 0.342 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | 2B | 57 | 169 | 49 | 0.290 | 4 | 24 | 0.349 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.285 | 0.335 | 0.463 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 89 | 213 | 50 | 0.235 | 13 | 36 | 0.318 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.344 | 0.550 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 96 | 324 | 86 | 0.265 | 10 | 50 | 0.346 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.242 | 0.308 | 0.376 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 49 | 43 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 0.302 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Rhett Lowder | Starter | 24 | 108.5 | 5.31 | 1.502 | 7.3 | 88 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 102 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Emilio Pagán | Closer | 34 | 32.4 | 4.17 | 1.080 | 9.4 | 34 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tejay Antone | Setup Man | 45 | 38.6 | 3.73 | 1.244 | 10.0 | 43 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 68 | 56.0 | 3.05 | 1.536 | 10.8 | 67 | 1.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 45 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Sam Moll | Reliever | 62 | 44.6 | 5.65 | 1.771 | 10.9 | 54 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| David Peterson | Starter | 11 | 53.0 | 4.08 | 1.415 | 7.8 | 46 | 4.2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 99 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Jacob Webb | Closer | 60 | 54.3 | 3.15 | 1.344 | 10.8 | 65 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent Thornton | Setup Man | 42 | 39.2 | 3.67 | 1.301 | 6.0 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 10 | 7.7 | 7.01 | 1.948 | 10.5 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 21 | 17.7 | 4.07 | 1.356 | 12.2 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 |
CHC wins 7-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| ATL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 8 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.5862; margin adjustment: 2.5379; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 117 | 450 | 130 | 0.289 | 14 | 69 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.256 | 0.343 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 66 | 235 | 61 | 0.260 | 6 | 36 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.311 | 0.406 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 118 | 440 | 112 | 0.255 | 36 | 73 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.159 | 0.224 | 0.406 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 131 | 466 | 136 | 0.292 | 13 | 60 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.381 | 0.378 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 3B | 119 | 427 | 111 | 0.260 | 15 | 56 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.320 | 0.423 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | DH | 96 | 341 | 86 | 0.252 | 21 | 60 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.262 | 0.459 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 2B | 19 | 61 | 18 | 0.295 | 2 | 10 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.337 | 0.436 | OK |
| Zac Veen | RF | 15 | 31 | 7 | 0.226 | 2 | 7 | 0.294 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.253 | 0.433 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 122 | 405 | 85 | 0.210 | 10 | 41 | 0.258 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.265 | 0.373 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 114 | 444 | 124 | 0.279 | 22 | 68 | 0.359 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.298 | 0.371 | 0.506 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 137 | 520 | 134 | 0.258 | 20 | 67 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 0.346 | 0.419 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 137 | 529 | 135 | 0.255 | 36 | 78 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.256 | 0.331 | 0.506 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 84 | 317 | 77 | 0.243 | 13 | 36 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.193 | 0.276 | 0.315 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 131 | 500 | 150 | 0.300 | 23 | 78 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.317 | 0.502 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | 3B | 130 | 482 | 130 | 0.270 | 10 | 64 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.293 | 0.336 | 0.408 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 114 | 301 | 67 | 0.223 | 9 | 33 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.254 | 0.285 | OK |
| Sean Murphy | C | 17 | 58 | 13 | 0.224 | 2 | 4 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.303 | 0.446 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 29 | 86 | 7 | 0.081 | 0 | 5 | 0.177 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.156 | 0.240 | 0.198 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tomoyuki Sugano | Starter | 24 | 122.4 | 5.37 | 1.397 | 5.5 | 75 | 5.1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 109 | 5.1 | 5 | 8 |
| Jordan Romano | Closer | 18 | 16.3 | 2.21 | 1.227 | 8.8 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 64 | 46.2 | 3.12 | 1.385 | 8.0 | 41 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 36 | 23.2 | 6.59 | 2.112 | 12.4 | 32 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grant Holmes | Starter | 27 | 127.4 | 3.96 | 1.405 | 7.4 | 105 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 86 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 50 | 48.9 | 2.94 | 1.227 | 9.6 | 52 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 64 | 53.3 | 2.70 | 0.957 | 12.5 | 74 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 54.3 | 2.65 | 1.234 | 12.6 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Dylan Dodd | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 38.2 | 2.36 | 1.021 | 10.6 | 45 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
ATL wins 8-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.0379; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 87 | 349 | 99 | 0.284 | 17 | 46 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.280 | 0.476 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 135 | 485 | 155 | 0.320 | 37 | 94 | 0.435 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.298 | 0.402 | 0.531 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 130 | 472 | 119 | 0.252 | 17 | 73 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.348 | 0.403 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 110 | 428 | 106 | 0.248 | 14 | 41 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.282 | 0.363 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 24 | 93 | 16 | 0.172 | 3 | 10 | 0.238 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.287 | 0.413 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 131 | 486 | 112 | 0.230 | 24 | 76 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.304 | 0.437 | OK |
| Yainer Diaz | C | 69 | 256 | 67 | 0.262 | 10 | 32 | 0.293 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.301 | 0.456 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | RF | 73 | 203 | 41 | 0.202 | 7 | 20 | 0.280 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.269 | 0.336 | OK |
| Nelson Velázquez | LF | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0.071 | 1 | 2 | 0.071 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.243 | 0.376 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 96 | 351 | 85 | 0.242 | 7 | 28 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.296 | 0.330 | OK |
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 79 | 310 | 72 | 0.232 | 14 | 34 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.294 | 0.396 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 132 | 526 | 139 | 0.264 | 14 | 66 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.288 | 0.410 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 128 | 490 | 134 | 0.273 | 16 | 53 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.292 | 0.340 | 0.444 | OK |
| Luis Robert Jr. | LF | 55 | 193 | 43 | 0.223 | 10 | 23 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.252 | 0.333 | 0.471 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 83 | 262 | 70 | 0.267 | 7 | 32 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.298 | 0.405 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 115 | 408 | 91 | 0.223 | 14 | 43 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.283 | 0.335 | OK |
| Brett Baty | DH | 114 | 364 | 82 | 0.225 | 8 | 40 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.319 | 0.366 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 74 | 219 | 53 | 0.242 | 8 | 33 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.247 | 0.295 | 0.495 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.242 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Hunter Brown | Starter | 15 | 78.2 | 3.45 | 1.343 | 9.9 | 86 | 5.1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 105 | 5.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 36 | 35.4 | 0.51 | 0.621 | 12.2 | 48 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Setup Man | 68 | 58.8 | 2.45 | 1.003 | 10.4 | 68 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 54 | 47.3 | 4.38 | 1.543 | 12.9 | 68 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Christian Scott | Starter | 20 | 90.0 | 4.00 | 1.378 | 11.3 | 113 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 89 | 5.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Kodai Senga | Closer | 24 | 52.2 | 7.76 | 1.724 | 11.2 | 65 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 20 | 22.1 | 2.44 | 0.905 | 10.2 | 25 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 1.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 11 | 8.2 | 0.00 | 0.732 | 13.2 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
NYM wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| CLE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.3452; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 126 | 446 | 99 | 0.222 | 19 | 61 | 0.309 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.234 | 0.331 | 0.449 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 118 | 464 | 132 | 0.284 | 16 | 48 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.367 | 0.450 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 125 | 454 | 128 | 0.282 | 23 | 66 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.310 | 0.339 | 0.527 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 127 | 490 | 110 | 0.224 | 17 | 62 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.262 | 0.378 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 90 | 332 | 82 | 0.247 | 9 | 41 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.339 | 0.444 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 2B | 96 | 304 | 72 | 0.237 | 6 | 40 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.240 | 0.327 | 0.396 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 121 | 384 | 89 | 0.232 | 6 | 40 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.305 | 0.313 | OK |
| Josh Rojas | 3B | 31 | 85 | 21 | 0.247 | 2 | 13 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.214 | 0.248 | 0.285 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 75 | 231 | 54 | 0.234 | 6 | 24 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.293 | 0.392 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | LF | 122 | 438 | 120 | 0.274 | 2 | 27 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.349 | 0.423 | 0.404 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | DH | 111 | 417 | 123 | 0.295 | 13 | 59 | 0.366 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.307 | 0.384 | 0.484 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 100 | 374 | 91 | 0.243 | 11 | 48 | 0.339 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.259 | 0.337 | 0.384 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 23 | 85 | 21 | 0.247 | 4 | 21 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.222 | 0.260 | 0.383 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 21 | 76 | 18 | 0.237 | 3 | 15 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.322 | 0.403 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 99 | 368 | 87 | 0.236 | 9 | 41 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.339 | 0.364 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 56 | 167 | 39 | 0.234 | 6 | 25 | 0.303 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.148 | 0.253 | 0.270 | OK |
| Petey Halpin | CF | 53 | 142 | 30 | 0.211 | 3 | 9 | 0.252 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 0.207 | 0.273 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 128 | 452 | 113 | 0.250 | 10 | 53 | 0.307 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.287 | 0.356 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael Wacha | Starter | 27 | 168.1 | 3.37 | 1.112 | 7.3 | 136 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 115 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Steven Cruz | Closer | 49 | 47.0 | 4.79 | 1.383 | 10.7 | 56 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 15 | 14.2 | 0.63 | 0.915 | 8.2 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Bibee | Starter | 28 | 159.3 | 3.95 | 1.180 | 7.2 | 128 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 101 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | Closer | 58 | 57.5 | 2.50 | 1.148 | 13.5 | 86 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 35 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 53 | 38.4 | 3.52 | 1.484 | 10.5 | 45 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 51 | 44.4 | 2.43 | 1.081 | 10.1 | 50 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
CLE wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Quality edge: -0.761; margin adjustment: -0.3196; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 126 | 488 | 136 | 0.279 | 30 | 78 | 0.379 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.275 | 0.374 | 0.527 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 132 | 499 | 152 | 0.305 | 15 | 61 | 0.379 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.303 | 0.367 | 0.440 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 98 | 386 | 93 | 0.241 | 16 | 47 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.255 | 0.302 | 0.384 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 124 | 407 | 101 | 0.248 | 26 | 68 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.245 | 0.345 | 0.483 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | 2B | 56 | 200 | 51 | 0.255 | 5 | 25 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.294 | 0.408 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 125 | 451 | 103 | 0.228 | 11 | 57 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.237 | 0.242 | OK |
| Alek Thomas | CF | 6 | 19 | 4 | 0.211 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.132 | 0.166 | 0.245 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 99 | 350 | 87 | 0.249 | 12 | 45 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.217 | 0.276 | 0.337 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 17 | 42 | 11 | 0.262 | 1 | 4 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.340 | 0.401 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 0.297 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 79 | 299 | 78 | 0.261 | 8 | 36 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.296 | 0.314 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 3B | 86 | 244 | 66 | 0.270 | 8 | 34 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.299 | 0.410 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 132 | 506 | 139 | 0.275 | 14 | 58 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.307 | 0.386 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 126 | 479 | 120 | 0.251 | 26 | 82 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.266 | 0.382 | OK |
| Eduardo Valencia | DH | 26 | 77 | 24 | 0.312 | 6 | 17 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.292 | 0.307 | 0.584 | OK |
| Ben Malgeri | RF | 30 | 72 | 16 | 0.222 | 3 | 11 | 0.313 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.314 | 0.382 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 134 | 454 | 99 | 0.218 | 20 | 62 | 0.312 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.282 | 0.340 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 28 | 98 | 23 | 0.235 | 2 | 13 | 0.292 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.194 | 0.242 | 0.348 | OK |
| Javier Báez | LF | 46 | 157 | 40 | 0.255 | 2 | 14 | 0.285 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.265 | 0.374 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tarik Skubal | Starter | 5 | 30.0 | 3.00 | 1.033 | 11.1 | 37 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 90 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 59 | 50.1 | 2.69 | 1.038 | 12.0 | 67 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 55 | 48.1 | 3.18 | 1.123 | 11.8 | 63 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 19 | 16.9 | 2.13 | 1.006 | 9.6 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Drew Anderson | Starter | 45 | 78.3 | 4.25 | 1.456 | 11.0 | 96 | 4.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 83 | 4.1 | 10 | 1 |
| Kenley Jansen | Closer | 39 | 33.1 | 3.81 | 1.208 | 11.1 | 41 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 59 | 52.5 | 3.60 | 1.543 | 8.6 | 50 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 54 | 47.3 | 3.04 | 1.649 | 8.2 | 43 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jacob Waguespack | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 25 | 27.2 | 2.98 | 1.029 | 6.3 | 19 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 |
LAD wins 4-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| WAS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.2011; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 104 | 351 | 81 | 0.231 | 22 | 58 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.323 | 0.499 | OK |
| Agustín Ramírez | DH | 50 | 165 | 39 | 0.236 | 2 | 17 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.224 | 0.322 | 0.322 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 134 | 538 | 164 | 0.305 | 10 | 61 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.318 | 0.391 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | RF | 109 | 364 | 102 | 0.280 | 6 | 51 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.288 | 0.322 | 0.427 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 135 | 500 | 141 | 0.282 | 6 | 51 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.351 | 0.357 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 101 | 372 | 91 | 0.245 | 16 | 56 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.330 | 0.463 | OK |
| Leo Jiménez | 3B | 61 | 166 | 33 | 0.199 | 2 | 14 | 0.291 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.274 | 0.255 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | CF | 72 | 168 | 40 | 0.238 | 6 | 11 | 0.325 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.229 | 0.281 | 0.392 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 81 | 245 | 57 | 0.233 | 12 | 38 | 0.288 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.274 | 0.374 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| CJ Abrams | SS | 131 | 498 | 133 | 0.267 | 29 | 92 | 0.343 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.217 | 0.282 | 0.397 | OK |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 1B | 27 | 87 | 19 | 0.218 | 5 | 10 | 0.261 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.234 | 0.335 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 85 | 322 | 71 | 0.220 | 10 | 34 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.294 | 0.370 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 138 | 526 | 135 | 0.257 | 20 | 80 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.294 | 0.339 | 0.588 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 73 | 261 | 63 | 0.241 | 10 | 38 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.282 | 0.363 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 98 | 262 | 63 | 0.240 | 3 | 24 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.330 | 0.314 | OK |
| Harry Ford | C | 22 | 69 | 13 | 0.188 | 3 | 8 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.267 | 0.341 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | DH | 59 | 146 | 36 | 0.247 | 9 | 33 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.329 | 0.539 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 112 | 374 | 92 | 0.246 | 10 | 41 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.288 | 0.370 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eury Pérez | Starter | 24 | 129.5 | 3.47 | 1.143 | 9.9 | 142 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 97 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Closer | 58 | 50.2 | 4.48 | 1.534 | 11.5 | 64 | 1.1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 34 | 25.3 | 4.62 | 1.542 | 12.1 | 34 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 56 | 49.8 | 3.80 | 1.305 | 11.9 | 66 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jackson Kent | Starter | 4 | 18.4 | 5.87 | 1.793 | 8.3 | 17 | 3.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Clayton Beeter | Closer | 45 | 39.9 | 3.38 | 1.404 | 10.2 | 45 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Setup Man | 44 | 37.8 | 4.29 | 1.376 | 9.5 | 40 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Will Dion | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 7 | 16.5 | 2.18 | 0.909 | 9.3 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tom Cosgrove | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 18 | 11.9 | 10.59 | 2.017 | 10.6 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
MIA wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.8664; margin adjustment: -0.3639; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 130 | 492 | 119 | 0.242 | 39 | 81 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.342 | 0.576 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 130 | 543 | 132 | 0.243 | 17 | 51 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.216 | 0.256 | 0.317 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 136 | 481 | 129 | 0.268 | 27 | 79 | 0.387 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.307 | 0.421 | 0.576 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 24 | 99 | 28 | 0.283 | 2 | 11 | 0.294 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.283 | 0.311 | 0.388 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 130 | 488 | 119 | 0.244 | 14 | 75 | 0.305 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.273 | 0.323 | 0.419 | OK |
| Bryan De La Cruz | LF | 18 | 45 | 15 | 0.333 | 2 | 11 | 0.373 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.346 | 0.378 | 0.536 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 131 | 456 | 118 | 0.259 | 10 | 59 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.341 | 0.400 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 100 | 343 | 77 | 0.224 | 10 | 45 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.266 | 0.324 | 0.427 | OK |
| Derek Hill | CF | 34 | 94 | 25 | 0.266 | 5 | 18 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.158 | 0.199 | 0.283 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 39 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0.154 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 133 | 530 | 125 | 0.236 | 23 | 66 | 0.318 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.269 | 0.323 | 0.475 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 119 | 432 | 104 | 0.241 | 20 | 50 | 0.379 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.361 | 0.397 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 69 | 218 | 64 | 0.294 | 3 | 22 | 0.366 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.257 | 0.324 | 0.338 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 92 | 334 | 83 | 0.249 | 9 | 57 | 0.308 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.239 | 0.281 | 0.399 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 24 | 92 | 15 | 0.163 | 0 | 4 | 0.214 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.270 | 0.324 | OK |
| Christian Moore | 2B | 15 | 53 | 10 | 0.189 | 1 | 4 | 0.267 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.151 | 0.231 | 0.331 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | RF | 88 | 261 | 55 | 0.211 | 10 | 27 | 0.270 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.278 | 0.356 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 59 | 211 | 46 | 0.218 | 6 | 24 | 0.263 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.174 | 0.224 | 0.294 | OK |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 26 | 71 | 14 | 0.197 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.148 | 0.174 | 0.204 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 43 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 0.233 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Painter | Starter | 20 | 96.0 | 6.09 | 1.479 | 8.0 | 85 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 92 | 5.0 | 9 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 51 | 49.4 | 1.28 | 1.012 | 12.6 | 69 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 52 | 45.7 | 3.15 | 1.094 | 12.2 | 62 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 58 | 46.9 | 4.41 | 1.471 | 10.9 | 57 | 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| José Alvarado | Reliever | 57 | 43.6 | 6.40 | 1.766 | 12.6 | 61 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Reid Detmers | Starter | 27 | 151.5 | 3.62 | 1.096 | 10.3 | 174 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 108 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Ben Joyce | Closer | 9 | 7.4 | 3.65 | 1.081 | 14.6 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 9 | 6.6 | 4.09 | 1.667 | 15.0 | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 44 | 39.9 | 3.83 | 1.529 | 12.4 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Murphy | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 12 | 10.0 | 1.80 | 1.300 | 10.8 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever | 18 | 10.7 | 5.05 | 1.495 | 14.3 | 17 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 |
LAA wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Quality edge: -0.2925; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jared Triolo | SS | 92 | 282 | 70 | 0.248 | 3 | 25 | 0.323 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.258 | 0.259 | OK |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | RF | 62 | 205 | 49 | 0.239 | 13 | 36 | 0.354 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.248 | 0.362 | 0.498 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | DH | 135 | 499 | 132 | 0.265 | 15 | 66 | 0.372 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.362 | 0.418 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 74 | 289 | 76 | 0.263 | 17 | 52 | 0.351 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.311 | 0.488 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 2B | 124 | 471 | 143 | 0.304 | 4 | 55 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.347 | 0.363 | OK |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | 1B | 25 | 81 | 18 | 0.222 | 7 | 17 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.315 | 0.517 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | LF | 103 | 365 | 106 | 0.290 | 4 | 28 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.268 | 0.312 | 0.355 | OK |
| Nick Yorke | 3B | 32 | 102 | 21 | 0.206 | 1 | 12 | 0.255 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.227 | 0.272 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 75 | 227 | 37 | 0.163 | 8 | 32 | 0.247 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.137 | 0.197 | 0.227 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | SS | 126 | 495 | 120 | 0.242 | 17 | 47 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.342 | 0.411 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 134 | 505 | 121 | 0.240 | 13 | 53 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.318 | 0.352 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 133 | 509 | 146 | 0.287 | 21 | 97 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.352 | 0.449 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 131 | 509 | 145 | 0.285 | 25 | 92 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.301 | 0.417 | OK |
| José Fermín | 2B | 94 | 269 | 66 | 0.245 | 6 | 34 | 0.310 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.292 | 0.364 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 105 | 348 | 84 | 0.241 | 10 | 45 | 0.285 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.322 | 0.435 | OK |
| Joshua Baez | LF | 15 | 50 | 9 | 0.180 | 5 | 10 | 0.222 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.176 | 0.230 | 0.453 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 67 | 215 | 41 | 0.191 | 8 | 27 | 0.272 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.083 | 0.178 | 0.202 | OK |
| Jimmy Crooks | C | 49 | 132 | 24 | 0.182 | 5 | 14 | 0.248 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.150 | 0.207 | 0.266 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 30 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jared Jones | Starter | 16 | 71.5 | 4.91 | 1.301 | 10.4 | 83 | 5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 77 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Mason Montgomery | Closer | 56 | 48.2 | 3.17 | 1.183 | 16.6 | 89 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 8 | 7.2 | 5.00 | 1.528 | 12.5 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 58 | 54.8 | 2.96 | 1.113 | 11.2 | 68 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Quinn Mathews | Starter | 4 | 19.2 | 5.16 | 1.615 | 9.4 | 20 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 83 | 4.1 | 7 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Closer | 56 | 52.1 | 4.15 | 1.286 | 9.3 | 54 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Setup Man | 61 | 51.3 | 4.74 | 1.462 | 10.2 | 58 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 45.4 | 4.96 | 1.586 | 11.1 | 56 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 55.6 | 4.05 | 1.619 | 7.1 | 44 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Gordon Graceffo | Middle Reliever | 54 | 56.9 | 3.48 | 1.265 | 7.1 | 45 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
PIT wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.0625; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 134 | 534 | 150 | 0.281 | 17 | 66 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.263 | 0.314 | 0.494 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | LF | 38 | 127 | 37 | 0.291 | 4 | 17 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.298 | 0.322 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 135 | 504 | 111 | 0.220 | 24 | 74 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.296 | 0.335 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 106 | 360 | 105 | 0.292 | 19 | 60 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.329 | 0.414 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 134 | 523 | 126 | 0.241 | 22 | 70 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.280 | 0.451 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 131 | 447 | 97 | 0.217 | 11 | 51 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.305 | 0.293 | OK |
| Austin Hays | DH | 10 | 28 | 6 | 0.214 | 1 | 3 | 0.214 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.252 | 0.342 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 69 | 209 | 41 | 0.196 | 4 | 17 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.273 | 0.325 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | 85 | 298 | 65 | 0.218 | 4 | 26 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.305 | 0.340 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 131 | 519 | 157 | 0.303 | 20 | 75 | 0.370 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.260 | 0.319 | 0.405 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 133 | 503 | 140 | 0.278 | 17 | 79 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.268 | 0.336 | 0.419 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 136 | 518 | 146 | 0.282 | 37 | 87 | 0.369 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.306 | 0.378 | 0.472 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 22 | 67 | 22 | 0.328 | 3 | 13 | 0.425 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.369 | 0.458 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 125 | 483 | 150 | 0.311 | 0 | 31 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.294 | 0.330 | 0.346 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | RF | 83 | 277 | 75 | 0.271 | 9 | 42 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.263 | 0.287 | 0.394 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 116 | 393 | 81 | 0.206 | 14 | 42 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.179 | 0.264 | 0.278 | OK |
| Jorge Mateo | 2B | 9 | 26 | 5 | 0.192 | 1 | 5 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.269 | 0.381 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 106 | 335 | 73 | 0.218 | 2 | 32 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.172 | 0.266 | 0.241 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Casey Mize | Starter | 5 | 22.3 | 6.46 | 1.570 | 4.4 | 11 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 91 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 55 | 54.3 | 1.33 | 0.884 | 17.2 | 104 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 63 | 65.6 | 2.88 | 1.174 | 12.3 | 90 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 56 | 52.6 | 2.22 | 1.198 | 11.1 | 65 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 46.1 | 2.34 | 1.323 | 11.3 | 58 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane McClanahan | Starter | 23 | 110.2 | 3.27 | 1.134 | 8.4 | 103 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 86 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Bryan Baker | Closer | 55 | 52.6 | 1.54 | 0.875 | 10.3 | 60 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 59 | 54.1 | 2.33 | 0.998 | 8.3 | 50 | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 9 | 11.1 | 2.43 | 0.901 | 9.7 | 12 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.0019; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 130 | 482 | 132 | 0.274 | 21 | 62 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.346 | 0.507 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 120 | 380 | 97 | 0.255 | 20 | 61 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.303 | 0.435 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 126 | 501 | 122 | 0.244 | 20 | 57 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.255 | 0.362 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 128 | 498 | 133 | 0.267 | 10 | 47 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.285 | 0.332 | 0.355 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 103 | 368 | 63 | 0.171 | 20 | 54 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.326 | 0.553 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 137 | 500 | 122 | 0.244 | 16 | 57 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.205 | 0.251 | 0.356 | OK |
| Taylor Ward | RF | 19 | 66 | 8 | 0.121 | 0 | 4 | 0.227 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.333 | 0.286 | OK |
| J.P. Crawford | 3B | 92 | 325 | 68 | 0.209 | 10 | 30 | 0.327 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.201 | 0.309 | 0.319 | OK |
| Brock Rodden | SS | 13 | 40 | 6 | 0.150 | 0 | 3 | 0.239 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.285 | 0.303 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 19 | 78 | 26 | 0.333 | 0 | 7 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.294 | 0.329 | 0.391 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 99 | 329 | 87 | 0.264 | 10 | 32 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.304 | 0.434 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 122 | 462 | 119 | 0.258 | 7 | 48 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.299 | 0.314 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 103 | 390 | 99 | 0.254 | 14 | 44 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.358 | 0.461 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | LF | 92 | 258 | 68 | 0.264 | 8 | 34 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.314 | 0.427 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 132 | 486 | 111 | 0.228 | 28 | 78 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.208 | 0.281 | 0.406 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 121 | 402 | 97 | 0.241 | 8 | 51 | 0.286 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.252 | 0.319 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 134 | 510 | 141 | 0.276 | 9 | 43 | 0.301 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.240 | 0.263 | 0.331 | OK |
| Brandon Valenzuela | C | 70 | 214 | 48 | 0.224 | 8 | 21 | 0.304 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.149 | 0.226 | 0.272 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0.219 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Emerson Hancock | Starter | 25 | 136.1 | 3.64 | 1.161 | 8.3 | 126 | 5.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 95 | 5.2 | 7 | 1 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 51 | 47.1 | 4.20 | 1.231 | 15.3 | 80 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 61 | 49.1 | 4.40 | 1.568 | 8.1 | 44 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 65 | 51.2 | 3.87 | 1.621 | 10.7 | 61 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 25 | 147.3 | 2.38 | 1.073 | 13.3 | 217 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 97 | 6.0 | 8 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | Closer | 62 | 64.0 | 1.27 | 1.047 | 11.8 | 84 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 64 | 57.0 | 2.05 | 1.298 | 5.5 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 76.8 | 3.16 | 1.185 | 9.0 | 77 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
TOR wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| MIL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | x | 6 | 7 |
Quality edge: 1.4849; margin adjustment: 0.6237; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 124 | 352 | 82 | 0.233 | 24 | 49 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.299 | 0.452 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 77 | 285 | 63 | 0.221 | 13 | 34 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.313 | 0.399 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 86 | 330 | 83 | 0.252 | 15 | 36 | 0.332 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.285 | 0.371 | 0.464 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 132 | 504 | 133 | 0.264 | 14 | 53 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.241 | 0.310 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 3B | 127 | 451 | 123 | 0.273 | 15 | 73 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.336 | 0.444 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 116 | 334 | 64 | 0.192 | 8 | 33 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.290 | 0.325 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 130 | 475 | 113 | 0.238 | 23 | 78 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.166 | 0.246 | 0.362 | OK |
| Cody Freeman | 2B | 22 | 60 | 18 | 0.300 | 1 | 6 | 0.373 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.327 | 0.326 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 47 | 146 | 24 | 0.164 | 5 | 16 | 0.261 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.231 | 0.339 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brice Turang | 2B | 124 | 488 | 127 | 0.260 | 17 | 79 | 0.351 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.315 | 0.418 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 101 | 418 | 119 | 0.285 | 20 | 57 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.295 | 0.347 | 0.555 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 119 | 403 | 110 | 0.273 | 22 | 74 | 0.387 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.191 | 0.319 | 0.364 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 125 | 481 | 130 | 0.270 | 13 | 69 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.296 | 0.355 | 0.421 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 93 | 355 | 82 | 0.231 | 9 | 45 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.262 | 0.327 | 0.401 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 98 | 297 | 74 | 0.249 | 7 | 37 | 0.313 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.335 | 0.417 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 116 | 381 | 97 | 0.255 | 8 | 48 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.324 | 0.386 | 0.514 | OK |
| Sal Frelick | RF | 90 | 287 | 69 | 0.240 | 4 | 34 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.287 | 0.367 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 97 | 293 | 70 | 0.239 | 4 | 24 | 0.305 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.256 | 0.314 | 0.370 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cody Bradford | Starter | 5 | 25.4 | 3.54 | 1.575 | 4.6 | 13 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Jacob Latz | Closer | 47 | 57.2 | 1.26 | 0.717 | 10.4 | 66 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 43 | 42.6 | 2.96 | 1.221 | 7.4 | 35 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 14 | 9.9 | 4.55 | 1.818 | 10.0 | 11 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Logan Henderson | Starter | 14 | 75.4 | 2.51 | 0.836 | 10.3 | 86 | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 96 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 52 | 51.4 | 1.58 | 0.817 | 10.0 | 57 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Setup Man | 63 | 68.0 | 3.57 | 1.515 | 13.8 | 104 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Patrick | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 47 | 89.1 | 3.33 | 1.291 | 8.4 | 83 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
MIL wins 6-2