MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 27, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (7 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ SF3 - 43 - 4SFSFSF wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ STL6 - 36 - 3BALBALBAL wins 6-362%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ WAS4 - 64 - 6WASWASWAS wins 6-457%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ NYY4 - 54 - 5NYYNYYNYY wins 5-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ TOR6 - 46 - 4KCKCKC wins 6-464%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ ATL4 - 34 - 3LADLADLAD wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ NYM4 - 24 - 2MILMILMIL wins 4-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants

ARI 73-66 (4.5 RPG / 4.47 RA)
3 - 4
SF 58-81 (4.13 RPG / 4.6 RA)
WINNER: SF wins 4-3 TARGET: ARI 3 - 4 SF (SF) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ARI00001011038
SF01010010147

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

ARI Season Quality

Record71-63
Win%0.530
Run Diff5
RD/Game0.037

SF Season Quality

Record54-79
Win%0.406
Run Diff-74
RD/Game-0.556

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5724; margin adjustment: -0.2404; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lars NootbaarDH 206114 0.230 3110.338 55100 01 0.200 0.219 0.320 0.352 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 135504123 0.244 19610.341 55210 01 0.400 0.232 0.314 0.420 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 108389118 0.303 11670.382 43000 10 0.000 0.280 0.361 0.447 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 134483123 0.255 9470.362 44212 00 0.500 0.285 0.382 0.390 OK
Max KeplerLF 3812627 0.214 2150.273 44000 00 0.000 0.224 0.286 0.330 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 129450107 0.238 21650.312 44100 01 0.250 0.234 0.296 0.426 OK
Tim Tawa1B 7523958 0.243 9350.298 44100 01 0.250 0.236 0.299 0.397 OK
Ildemaro Vargas2B 115407103 0.253 9660.292 42111 10 0.500 0.246 0.285 0.393 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 7022561 0.271 3220.332 44000 02 0.000 0.255 0.318 0.439 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38358 33 26 0.229

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drew GilbertRF 10429270 0.240 8360.310 54112 10 0.250 0.240 0.290 0.391 OK
Rafael Devers1B 137513130 0.253 29780.333 53000 23 0.000 0.251 0.338 0.569 OK
Bryce EldridgeDH 9232886 0.262 15430.354 44000 01 0.000 0.266 0.350 0.438 OK
Jonah CoxCF 286318 0.286 490.318 44100 00 0.250 0.208 0.231 0.498 OK
Turner HillLF 12339 0.273 080.350 44210 00 0.500 0.299 0.376 0.478 OK
Shay Whitcomb3B 8272 0.074 130.074 44100 00 0.250 0.170 0.180 0.426 OK
Drew CavanaughC 3910223 0.225 070.319 43111 11 0.333 0.159 0.254 0.202 OK
Christian KossSS 4212324 0.195 140.233 44000 00 0.000 0.214 0.252 0.267 OK
Nate Furman2B 10193 0.158 000.238 44111 01 0.250 0.090 0.152 0.138 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38347 44 46 0.206

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jose CabreraStarter 417.25.76 1.5706.312 4.15332490 4.1 4 3
Juan MorilloCloser 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Brandyn GarciaSetup Man 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.01112124 1.0 1 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.10000024 1.1 0 0
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5042.93.36 1.2359.043 1.1100017 0.1 1 0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Landen RouppStarter 26135.04.40 1.3568.9133 5.05111484 5.0 4 1
Dylan SmithCloser 3327.43.61 1.49612.839 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Sam HentgesSetup Man 3926.04.15 2.00012.135 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Jason FoleyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1513.04.85 1.7698.312 1.02111123 1.0 1 1
Trent HarrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 910.34.37 1.45613.115 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

SF wins 4-3


Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals

BAL 69-69 (4.55 RPG / 4.67 RA)
6 - 3
STL 68-70 (4.42 RPG / 4.53 RA)
WINNER: BAL wins 6-3 TARGET: BAL 6 - 3 STL (BAL) Confidence: 61.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BAL002030010611
STL00020000134

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

BAL Season Quality

Record64-68
Win%0.485
Run Diff-23
RD/Game-0.174

STL Season Quality

Record66-67
Win%0.496
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.105

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0855; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson Holliday2B 8126058 0.223 6270.299 54000 11 0.000 0.233 0.297 0.332 OK
Pete AlonsoDH 135507137 0.270 32910.361 55313 01 0.600 0.313 0.380 0.576 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 133534119 0.223 21560.306 53111 20 0.333 0.210 0.285 0.342 OK
Samuel Basallo1B 9331573 0.232 17490.293 55111 02 0.200 0.211 0.262 0.413 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 3511829 0.246 6260.291 55211 01 0.400 0.216 0.248 0.433 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 7823860 0.252 6310.327 54000 11 0.000 0.262 0.323 0.458 OK
Leody TaverasRF 11537784 0.223 8520.295 44110 01 0.250 0.229 0.287 0.341 OK
Colton CowserCF 10828263 0.223 12340.308 44000 03 0.000 0.267 0.336 0.469 OK
Carlos NarváezC 19514 0.078 000.175 44310 00 0.750 0.123 0.178 0.182 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423811 66 410 0.289

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ WetherholtSS 126495120 0.242 17470.343 44000 01 0.000 0.268 0.339 0.404 OK
Iván HerreraDH 134505121 0.240 13530.351 43110 10 0.333 0.211 0.296 0.313 OK
Alec Burleson1B 133509146 0.287 21970.351 44000 01 0.000 0.298 0.349 0.461 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 131509145 0.285 25920.343 43000 11 0.000 0.248 0.299 0.481 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 10534884 0.241 10450.285 44210 00 0.500 0.276 0.311 0.428 OK
José Fermín2B 9426966 0.245 6340.310 43113 01 0.333 0.254 0.316 0.398 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 6721541 0.191 8270.272 43000 11 0.000 0.129 0.221 0.227 OK
Bryan TorresLF 4911731 0.265 3160.323 44000 03 0.000 0.237 0.289 0.348 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 4913224 0.182 5140.248 32000 10 0.000 0.117 0.177 0.195 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35304 33 48 0.133

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor RogersStarter 25134.44.49 1.2808.1121 5.222234101 5.2 4 2
Andrew KittredgeCloser 4939.63.41 1.4908.236 1.00001023 1.0 0 0
Yennier CanoSetup Man 5735.62.78 1.09610.140 0.2000008 0.2 0 0
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6451.22.99 1.01610.560 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Josh WalkerMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1914.93.02 1.61110.918 0.21110211 0.2 2 1

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 26139.33.94 1.2786.398 5.074436107 5.0 6 4
Riley O'BrienCloser 5652.14.15 1.2869.354 1.02111123 1.0 1 1
George SorianoSetup Man 6151.34.74 1.46210.258 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5945.44.96 1.58611.156 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Justin BruihlMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5955.64.05 1.6197.144 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BAL wins 6-3


Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals

COL 52-86 (4.67 RPG / 5.71 RA)
4 - 6
WAS 66-74 (5.19 RPG / 5.05 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 6-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 6 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 56.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
COL01000100249
WAS10200120x66

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed7.2
Run Diff-31
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-2
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

COL Season Quality

Record51-81
Win%0.386
Run Diff-144
RD/Game-1.091

WAS Season Quality

Record62-72
Win%0.463
Run Diff18
RD/Game0.134

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9814; margin adjustment: 0.4122; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 117450130 0.289 14690.328 55111 01 0.200 0.254 0.291 0.372 OK
Cole CarriggCF 6623561 0.260 6360.341 54112 12 0.250 0.247 0.324 0.407 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 118440112 0.255 36730.322 54000 12 0.000 0.225 0.283 0.532 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 131466136 0.292 13600.384 55100 03 0.200 0.215 0.313 0.329 OK
Willi Castro3B 119427111 0.260 15560.331 44210 00 0.500 0.265 0.320 0.442 OK
Mickey MoniakRF 9634186 0.252 21600.290 44000 03 0.000 0.237 0.276 0.487 OK
Connor Norby2B 196118 0.295 2100.386 43100 10 0.333 0.264 0.342 0.445 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 110350101 0.289 4460.354 43100 00 0.333 0.283 0.344 0.405 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 12240585 0.210 10410.258 44211 00 0.500 0.149 0.208 0.298 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40369 44 311 0.250

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
CJ AbramsDH 131498133 0.267 29920.343 54111 10 0.250 0.269 0.334 0.507 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 278719 0.218 5100.261 54110 13 0.250 0.214 0.263 0.389 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 8532271 0.220 10340.289 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.278 0.346 OK
Daylen LileLF 138526135 0.257 20800.309 42111 00 0.500 0.293 0.335 0.541 OK
Andrés Chaparro3B 5914636 0.247 9330.341 43100 10 0.333 0.251 0.327 0.523 OK
José Tena2B 10124255 0.227 7220.305 42012 20 0.000 0.229 0.307 0.389 OK
Harry FordC 226913 0.188 380.291 42111 10 0.500 0.180 0.274 0.332 OK
Nasim NuñezSS 12239986 0.216 1350.295 44000 02 0.000 0.203 0.281 0.236 OK
Jacob YoungCF 11237492 0.246 10410.308 44111 00 0.250 0.233 0.285 0.361 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38296 66 66 0.207

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gabriel HughesStarter 1047.26.67 1.4627.238 4.14443288 4.1 2 4
Jordan RomanoCloser 1816.32.21 1.2278.816 1.11111124 1.1 1 1
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 6446.23.12 1.3858.041 1.11112228 1.1 2 1
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4237.26.77 1.7479.238 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jake IrvinStarter 1780.55.70 1.4169.282 4.25333698 4.2 6 3
Clayton BeeterCloser 4539.93.38 1.40410.245 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Orlando RibaltaSetup Man 4437.84.29 1.3769.540 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Will DionMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 716.52.18 0.9099.317 1.10000122 1.1 1 0
Jake BirdMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 88.13.33 0.98811.110 1.02000219 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

WAS wins 6-4


Houston Astros @ New York Yankees

HOU 70-68 (4.57 RPG / 4.86 RA)
4 - 5
NYY 78-60 (4.51 RPG / 3.73 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 5-4 TARGET: HOU 4 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
HOU02000020045
NYY00000000558

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

HOU Season Quality

Record66-66
Win%0.500
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.318

NYY Season Quality

Record74-57
Win%0.565
Run Diff98
RD/Game0.748

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9201; margin adjustment: 0.3864; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 8734999 0.284 17460.337 44000 02 0.000 0.247 0.281 0.429 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 135485155 0.320 37940.435 43010 10 0.000 0.350 0.452 0.599 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 130472119 0.252 17730.353 44000 00 0.000 0.266 0.351 0.441 OK
Jose Altuve2B 110428106 0.248 14410.309 44000 03 0.000 0.238 0.291 0.368 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 249316 0.172 3100.238 44112 02 0.250 0.238 0.282 0.367 OK
Christian Walker1B 131486112 0.230 24760.306 44211 01 0.500 0.207 0.263 0.351 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 7320341 0.202 7200.280 43211 01 0.667 0.189 0.260 0.332 OK
Cam SmithRF 12543493 0.214 17490.279 44000 02 0.000 0.113 0.177 0.252 OK
Christian VázquezC 7722548 0.213 7250.267 32000 11 0.000 0.203 0.263 0.382 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 44 212 0.156

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 11340384 0.208 17560.304 54110 11 0.250 0.204 0.311 0.410 OK
Ben RiceDH 129483122 0.253 34820.350 54114 01 0.250 0.235 0.325 0.440 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 248926 0.292 5120.340 44100 01 0.250 0.333 0.373 0.655 OK
Cody BellingerLF 109402105 0.261 12590.346 44000 02 0.000 0.274 0.357 0.462 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 237920 0.253 260.310 43110 10 0.333 0.257 0.314 0.346 OK
Spencer JonesRF 6218143 0.238 8250.305 43111 10 0.333 0.258 0.326 0.479 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 125435100 0.230 18540.307 44100 00 0.250 0.253 0.321 0.466 OK
Austin WellsC 10128552 0.182 10260.272 43000 10 0.000 0.191 0.277 0.279 OK
José Caballero3B 11236888 0.239 13470.292 44210 01 0.500 0.212 0.261 0.332 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38338 55 46 0.242

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Hayden WesneskiStarter 632.23.91 1.2117.828 5.12223597 5.1 5 2
Josh HaderCloser 3635.40.51 0.62112.248 1.00000119 1.0 1 0
Steven OkertSetup Man 6858.82.45 1.00310.468 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5447.34.38 1.54312.968 1.04331024 0.2 0 3

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gerrit ColeStarter 1796.83.25 1.0959.8105 6.022228102 6.0 8 2
David BednarCloser 5555.62.91 1.09710.565 1.02220219 1.0 2 2
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 7055.62.43 1.49313.986 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6140.24.25 1.81615.067 1.01000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-4


Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays

KC 62-76 (4.28 RPG / 4.88 RA)
6 - 4
TOR 68-70 (3.97 RPG / 4.33 RA)
WINNER: KC wins 6-4 TARGET: KC 6 - 4 TOR (KC) Confidence: 63.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
KC002103000611
TOR001000003410

KC Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff24
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak9W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

KC Season Quality

Record59-74
Win%0.444
Run Diff-89
RD/Game-0.669

TOR Season Quality

Record64-69
Win%0.481
Run Diff-57
RD/Game-0.429

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0492; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 12644699 0.222 19610.309 54111 10 0.250 0.199 0.276 0.365 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 118464132 0.284 16480.358 54000 12 0.000 0.279 0.356 0.462 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 125454128 0.282 23660.330 55210 00 0.400 0.288 0.323 0.452 OK
Salvador PerezDH 127490110 0.224 17620.268 55210 01 0.400 0.263 0.291 0.405 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 9033282 0.247 9410.337 55100 02 0.200 0.272 0.360 0.444 OK
Nick Loftin3B 9630472 0.237 6400.322 54000 10 0.000 0.250 0.333 0.421 OK
John RaveLF 298318 0.217 380.278 54110 10 0.250 0.236 0.298 0.453 OK
Tyler Tolbert2B 4611435 0.307 380.375 43212 10 0.667 0.270 0.342 0.388 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 7523154 0.234 6240.284 44213 00 0.500 0.272 0.303 0.425 OK
TEAM TOTALS 433811 66 55 0.289

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 197826 0.333 070.384 54300 01 0.750 0.309 0.342 0.413 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 122462119 0.258 7480.327 54000 11 0.000 0.255 0.310 0.354 OK
Alejandro KirkC 5920958 0.278 8320.347 54211 10 0.500 0.188 0.286 0.306 OK
George SpringerDH 10339099 0.254 14440.330 55100 01 0.200 0.184 0.252 0.291 OK
Jesús SánchezLF 9225868 0.264 8340.323 55111 01 0.200 0.249 0.310 0.405 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 132486111 0.228 28780.304 53000 22 0.000 0.219 0.283 0.423 OK
Nathan LukesRF 9932987 0.264 10320.318 55111 02 0.200 0.246 0.289 0.403 OK
Ernie Clement2B 134510141 0.276 9430.301 43000 10 0.000 0.260 0.287 0.353 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 12140297 0.241 8510.286 44211 01 0.500 0.247 0.273 0.341 OK
TEAM TOTALS 433710 44 59 0.270

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah CameronStarter 26147.04.04 1.2388.0131 6.141135116 6.1 5 1
Steven CruzCloser 4947.04.79 1.38310.756 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Nate PearsonSetup Man 1514.20.63 0.9158.213 1.01000219 1.0 2 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5542.14.28 1.4967.736 0.25332231 0.2 2 3

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Spencer ArrighettiStarter 27.17.61 1.69010.18 4.26221381 4.2 3 2
Louis VarlandCloser 6264.01.27 1.04711.884 1.12333033 1.1 0 3
Tyler RogersSetup Man 6457.02.05 1.2985.535 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4276.83.16 1.1859.077 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7141.73.88 1.53512.759 0.2000018 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

KC wins 6-4


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

LAD 82-55 (4.89 RPG / 3.77 RA)
4 - 3
ATL 82-57 (4.61 RPG / 3.83 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: LAD 4 - 3 ATL (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
1234567891011RH
LAD0030000000148
ATL0011001000033

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.7
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-11
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

LAD Season Quality

Record80-52
Win%0.606
Run Diff150
RD/Game1.136

ATL Season Quality

Record77-55
Win%0.583
Run Diff111
RD/Game0.841

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4298; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 126488136 0.279 30780.379 55100 02 0.200 0.269 0.380 0.521 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 132499152 0.305 15610.379 54212 10 0.500 0.252 0.318 0.382 OK
Mookie BettsSS 9838693 0.241 16470.295 55100 00 0.200 0.242 0.287 0.390 OK
Max Muncy3B 124407101 0.248 26680.344 55211 01 0.400 0.263 0.357 0.505 OK
Tommy Edman2B 5620051 0.255 5250.332 54110 10 0.250 0.255 0.306 0.396 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 125451103 0.228 11570.320 54011 11 0.000 0.205 0.285 0.312 OK
Alek ThomasCF 6194 0.211 030.250 55000 00 0.000 0.209 0.241 0.351 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 9935087 0.249 12450.311 55100 00 0.200 0.221 0.277 0.346 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 174211 0.262 140.354 44000 02 0.000 0.271 0.337 0.404 OK
TEAM TOTALS 44418 44 36 0.195

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinDH 114444124 0.279 22680.359 55000 02 0.000 0.252 0.326 0.412 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 8431777 0.243 13360.346 54111 10 0.250 0.199 0.284 0.341 OK
Matt Olson1B 137529135 0.255 36780.331 43010 10 0.000 0.251 0.314 0.454 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 130482130 0.270 10640.315 44000 02 0.000 0.283 0.326 0.396 OK
Michael Harris IICF 131500150 0.300 23780.324 44212 01 0.500 0.275 0.292 0.472 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 137520134 0.258 20670.313 44000 01 0.000 0.271 0.320 0.384 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 11430167 0.223 9330.304 44000 01 0.000 0.176 0.267 0.299 OK
Austin Riley3B 135479107 0.223 15610.297 44000 01 0.000 0.196 0.261 0.317 OK
Sean MurphyC 175813 0.224 240.262 44000 02 0.000 0.136 0.162 0.206 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38363 33 210 0.083

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yoshinobu YamamotoStarter 24155.92.60 0.9048.8153 6.122226101 6.1 6 2
Tanner ScottCloser 5950.12.69 1.03812.067 1.21110124 1.2 1 1
Edgardo HenriquezSetup Man 5548.13.18 1.12311.863 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Brock StewartMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1916.92.13 1.0069.618 1.00000013 0.0 0 0
Evan PhillipsReliever 2214.45.00 1.59713.121 1.00000313 0.0 3 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chris SaleStarter 24142.62.08 1.01011.2177 6.06221698 6.0 6 2
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5048.92.94 1.2279.652 2.10000020 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeSetup Man 6453.32.70 0.95712.574 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4854.32.65 1.23412.676 1.00002021 1.0 0 0
Brent SuterMiddle Reliever 614.11.28 1.2065.18 0.22220014 0.0 0 2

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3


Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets

MIL 85-53 (4.97 RPG / 3.79 RA)
4 - 2
NYM 62-76 (4.09 RPG / 4.47 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 4-2 TARGET: MIL 4 - 2 NYM (MIL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIL00020020048
NYM00000002022

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff29
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

MIL Season Quality

Record81-51
Win%0.614
Run Diff160
RD/Game1.212

NYM Season Quality

Record60-72
Win%0.455
Run Diff-39
RD/Game-0.295

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2106; margin adjustment: -0.5085; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sal FrelickLF 9028769 0.240 4340.305 55111 00 0.200 0.234 0.284 0.347 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 11638197 0.255 8480.345 44111 01 0.250 0.319 0.384 0.506 OK
Brice Turang2B 124488127 0.260 17790.351 44100 02 0.250 0.214 0.293 0.343 OK
Christian YelichDH 9335582 0.231 9450.315 44100 00 0.250 0.189 0.279 0.313 OK
William ContrerasC 125481130 0.270 13690.341 44212 00 0.500 0.380 0.434 0.512 OK
Luis LaraRF 3812434 0.274 1190.336 44000 02 0.000 0.270 0.325 0.389 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 8625078 0.312 5390.392 43110 11 0.333 0.313 0.387 0.439 OK
David Hamilton3B 9729370 0.239 4240.305 43100 11 0.333 0.172 0.242 0.292 OK
Cooper PrattSS 4915341 0.268 3210.331 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.284 0.287 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 44 28 0.229

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
A.J. EwingCF 9635185 0.242 7280.314 44112 00 0.250 0.227 0.297 0.325 OK
Francisco LindorSS 7931072 0.232 14340.314 44000 03 0.000 0.251 0.320 0.436 OK
Bo Bichette3B 132526139 0.264 14660.310 43000 12 0.000 0.245 0.286 0.405 OK
Carson BengeRF 128490134 0.273 16530.334 44000 02 0.000 0.296 0.346 0.463 OK
Jared Young1B 8326270 0.267 7320.325 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.293 0.405 OK
Luis Robert Jr.DH 5519343 0.223 10230.296 33000 01 0.000 0.242 0.323 0.480 OK
Brett BatyLF 11436482 0.225 8400.290 33110 01 0.333 0.233 0.299 0.367 OK
Marcus Semien2B 11540891 0.223 14430.285 32000 11 0.000 0.217 0.274 0.320 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 9230469 0.227 12320.314 32000 10 0.000 0.128 0.220 0.247 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32292 22 311 0.069

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 25150.31.74 0.75813.3222 6.00112894 6.0 8 1
Trevor MegillCloser 5251.41.58 0.81710.057 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbySetup Man 6368.03.57 1.51513.8104 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Chad PatrickMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4789.13.33 1.2918.483 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean ManaeaStarter 28118.74.70 1.3659.1120 6.15221499 6.1 4 2
Kodai SengaCloser 2452.27.76 1.72411.265 1.03220217 1.0 2 2
Daniel DuarteSetup Man 2022.12.44 0.90510.225 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 118.20.00 0.73213.212 0.20001212 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-2