MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 22, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ MIL2 - 42 - 4MILMILMIL wins 4-257%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ SEA3 - 43 - 4SEASEASEA wins 4-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ ARI3 - 43 - 4ARIARIARI wins 4-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ COL5 - 25 - 2CLECLECLE wins 5-275%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ KC2 - 42 - 4KCKCKC wins 4-265%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ TEX5 - 45 - 4LAALAALAA wins 5-452%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ SD3 - 43 - 4SDSDSD wins 4-359%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ CHW3 - 43 - 4CHWCHWCHW wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ HOU3 - 43 - 4HOUHOUHOU wins 4-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ LAD3 - 43 - 4LADLADLAD wins 4-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ BOS3 - 63 - 6BOSBOSBOS wins 6-365%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ PHI5 - 35 - 3STLSTLSTL wins 5-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ BAL4 - 34 - 3TBTBTB wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ NYY3 - 43 - 4NYYNYYNYY wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ MIA3 - 53 - 5MIAMIAMIA wins 5-360%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

ATL 75-56 (4.67 RPG / 3.89 RA)
2 - 4
MIL 81-49 (4.98 RPG / 3.73 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 4-2 TARGET: ATL 2 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL10000001025
MIL00012010x44

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.8
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff20
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

ATL Season Quality

Record75-54
Win%0.581
Run Diff111
RD/Game0.860

MIL Season Quality

Record80-49
Win%0.620
Run Diff160
RD/Game1.240

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5045; margin adjustment: 0.2119; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 105408110 0.270 21630.353 44211 01 0.500 0.213 0.274 0.363 OK
Matt Olson1B 128493128 0.260 35750.336 44100 00 0.250 0.231 0.303 0.437 OK
Michael Harris IICF 122466138 0.296 20690.320 43000 12 0.000 0.293 0.311 0.434 OK
Ozzie AlbiesDH 128486123 0.253 20650.309 44000 00 0.000 0.236 0.292 0.390 OK
Mauricio Dubón2B 121448120 0.268 10610.314 44000 01 0.000 0.267 0.310 0.374 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 10527965 0.233 9330.319 44000 02 0.000 0.201 0.300 0.343 OK
Austin Riley3B 127454101 0.222 15600.295 33100 00 0.333 0.195 0.250 0.316 OK
Jim JarvisSS 3710823 0.213 1110.274 33000 02 0.000 0.176 0.239 0.264 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 7628868 0.236 13350.337 33111 01 0.333 0.216 0.301 0.377 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 22 19 0.156

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 93383109 0.285 17500.348 43000 10 0.000 0.294 0.355 0.443 OK
Brice Turang2B 116455123 0.270 16760.360 42000 20 0.000 0.242 0.329 0.369 OK
William ContrerasC 117450118 0.262 12630.333 43112 10 0.333 0.344 0.408 0.477 OK
Jake BauersRF 112383104 0.272 21700.380 44110 02 0.250 0.285 0.396 0.503 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 7822970 0.306 5370.385 44111 00 0.250 0.311 0.380 0.442 OK
Christian YelichDH 8532873 0.223 9420.308 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.297 0.377 OK
Joey Ortiz3B 9127367 0.245 7370.310 33000 00 0.000 0.256 0.324 0.396 OK
Luis LaraCF 309924 0.242 1150.309 33000 02 0.000 0.257 0.319 0.392 OK
Cooper PrattSS 4313735 0.255 2160.329 32111 11 0.500 0.223 0.294 0.306 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33284 44 56 0.143

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Martín PérezStarter 24109.73.20 1.2126.883 5.233346108 5.2 6 3
Dylan LeeSetup Man 6051.02.29 0.86312.772 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4549.32.92 1.19713.172 1.10001025 1.1 0 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan HendersonStarter 1262.42.74 0.88110.875 6.04111792 6.0 7 1
Trevor MegillCloser 5049.31.64 0.79110.256 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbySetup Man 5964.03.66 1.53114.2101 1.11110013 1.1 0 1
Chad PatrickMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4283.73.23 1.2668.882 0.20000122 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-2


Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners

CHC 74-55 (5.12 RPG / 4.36 RA)
3 - 4
SEA 61-68 (3.92 RPG / 4.27 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 4-3 TARGET: CHC 3 - 4 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC10001010036
SEA00100030x44

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed7.0
Run Diff-26
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CHC Season Quality

Record74-55
Win%0.574
Run Diff99
RD/Game0.767

SEA Season Quality

Record61-68
Win%0.473
Run Diff-45
RD/Game-0.349

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9036; margin adjustment: -0.3795; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 127483136 0.282 32800.381 54110 10 0.250 0.257 0.334 0.650 OK
Seiya SuzukiDH 110418113 0.270 22740.362 53100 10 0.333 0.263 0.352 0.488 OK
Alex Bregman3B 125496129 0.260 18660.350 42012 00 0.000 0.304 0.373 0.679 OK
Michael Busch1B 125477117 0.245 14620.350 43111 11 0.333 0.246 0.322 0.387 OK
Nico HoernerSS 124496131 0.264 7580.319 44100 01 0.250 0.282 0.332 0.369 OK
Tyrone TaylorRF 9226 0.273 000.360 44000 00 0.000 0.262 0.309 0.473 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 4913839 0.283 2150.342 44000 00 0.000 0.246 0.312 0.377 OK
Kevin AlcántaraLF 15235 0.217 150.250 44100 01 0.250 0.229 0.267 0.376 OK
Miguel AmayaC 5817742 0.237 5220.328 43100 12 0.333 0.207 0.280 0.365 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38316 33 45 0.194

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brendan Donovan3B 3713738 0.277 3150.363 43000 11 0.000 0.283 0.345 0.393 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 121450122 0.271 17540.365 44000 01 0.000 0.229 0.292 0.404 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 11234890 0.259 19550.330 43000 11 0.000 0.260 0.325 0.471 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 117464117 0.252 19530.314 44111 00 0.250 0.235 0.282 0.374 OK
Josh Naylor1B 120467125 0.268 10460.331 44000 01 0.000 0.244 0.297 0.317 OK
Taylor WardDH 11406 0.150 020.227 33111 00 0.333 0.192 0.321 0.279 OK
Cal RaleighC 9433853 0.157 14470.271 32110 10 0.500 0.138 0.256 0.373 OK
Cole Young2B 129471120 0.255 15560.315 33112 00 0.333 0.200 0.258 0.315 OK
Leo RivasSS 4010915 0.138 080.264 32000 11 0.000 0.147 0.249 0.191 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32284 44 45 0.143

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
David PetersonStarter 942.04.29 1.4296.932 4.23333384 4.2 3 3
Jacob WebbCloser 5752.12.42 1.28611.164 1.22111131 1.2 1 1
Trent ThorntonSetup Man 3734.92.58 1.2035.722 1.20000121 1.2 1 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kade AndersonStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 0.05222023 0.0 0 2
Andrés MuñozCloser 4945.04.20 1.22215.075 2.10000041 2.1 0 0
José A. FerrerSetup Man 5746.64.06 1.4818.544 1.11112128 1.1 1 1
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6148.93.68 1.55410.758 1.20000023 1.2 0 0
Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4127.73.25 1.4449.730 3.20000458 3.2 4 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 4-3


Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks

CIN 61-68 (4.05 RPG / 4.81 RA)
3 - 4
ARI 68-61 (4.56 RPG / 4.46 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 4-3 TARGET: CIN 3 - 4 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 58.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN00010020035
ARI00000400x44

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff8
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

CIN Season Quality

Record61-68
Win%0.473
Run Diff-98
RD/Game-0.760

ARI Season Quality

Record68-61
Win%0.527
Run Diff13
RD/Game0.101

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7858; margin adjustment: 0.33; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Elly De La CruzSS 107419109 0.260 20570.345 42000 11 0.000 0.222 0.304 0.374 OK
Sal Stewart1B 126480124 0.258 26930.333 43000 10 0.000 0.256 0.322 0.435 OK
JJ BledayLF 9734677 0.223 20480.334 44100 00 0.250 0.204 0.306 0.341 OK
Tyler StephensonC 9731175 0.241 12400.324 44100 01 0.250 0.191 0.264 0.370 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 9633771 0.211 18510.294 44111 01 0.250 0.216 0.307 0.374 OK
Matt McLain2B 9933767 0.199 12330.292 43110 10 0.333 0.204 0.281 0.380 OK
Dane MyersCF 7820050 0.250 4200.342 44112 00 0.250 0.247 0.332 0.370 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 12344 0.118 020.189 44000 00 0.000 0.136 0.200 0.185 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 6118529 0.157 580.208 44000 00 0.000 0.195 0.237 0.314 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 33 33 0.156

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lars NootbaarLF 12376 0.162 130.311 43000 11 0.000 0.185 0.300 0.333 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 125467116 0.248 18570.348 44000 03 0.000 0.262 0.352 0.493 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 100360111 0.308 10630.385 43110 11 0.333 0.307 0.371 0.500 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 124447111 0.248 9440.357 42010 21 0.000 0.279 0.366 0.383 OK
Nolan ArenadoDH 120416101 0.243 20640.321 44000 00 0.000 0.249 0.314 0.464 OK
Tim Tawa1B 6520449 0.240 7300.291 43000 11 0.000 0.268 0.325 0.413 OK
Ildemaro Vargas2B 10536896 0.261 9610.301 44113 02 0.250 0.247 0.284 0.395 OK
Jose Fernandez3B 5417646 0.261 3160.297 32211 10 1.000 0.269 0.306 0.379 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 6019755 0.279 2170.342 33000 01 0.000 0.262 0.330 0.377 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34284 44 610 0.143

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Rhett LowderStarter 2297.55.35 1.5387.682 4.24446895 4.2 8 4
Emilio PagánCloser 3028.44.44 1.1279.831 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
Tejay AntoneSetup Man 4235.44.07 1.2719.939 1.20000021 1.2 0 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael SorokaStarter 1789.93.00 1.1358.888 6.053333103 6.0 3 3
Juan MorilloCloser 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.20000011 1.2 0 0
Brandyn GarciaSetup Man 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3


Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies

CLE 63-66 (4.0 RPG / 4.12 RA)
5 - 2
COL 50-78 (4.78 RPG / 5.8 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 5-2 TARGET: CLE 5 - 2 COL (CLE) Confidence: 74.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE20000210056
COL00101000026

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed6.4
Run Diff-20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

CLE Season Quality

Record63-66
Win%0.488
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.116

COL Season Quality

Record50-78
Win%0.391
Run Diff-130
RD/Game-1.016

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8479; margin adjustment: -0.3561; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 114402106 0.264 2250.369 43000 10 0.000 0.264 0.390 0.323 OK
Chase DeLauterDH 104396114 0.288 13560.360 43211 10 0.667 0.303 0.370 0.447 OK
Jo AdellRF 155312 0.226 3120.311 44111 01 0.250 0.252 0.281 0.443 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 134512 0.267 290.300 44112 00 0.250 0.264 0.327 0.433 OK
Angel GenaoSS 135016 0.320 130.370 44000 01 0.000 0.316 0.358 0.444 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 9334683 0.240 9380.330 44110 01 0.250 0.274 0.341 0.370 OK
Patrick BaileyC 5316036 0.225 6240.278 44000 00 0.000 0.235 0.291 0.405 OK
Petey HalpinCF 4813027 0.208 390.241 44100 01 0.250 0.230 0.257 0.393 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 121426108 0.254 10510.314 33011 01 0.000 0.254 0.300 0.387 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 55 25 0.182

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 107408119 0.292 13670.330 44111 01 0.250 0.269 0.318 0.436 OK
Mickey MoniakRF 8730480 0.263 20590.302 44111 01 0.250 0.248 0.291 0.497 OK
Cole CarriggSS 5720257 0.282 5340.366 44100 02 0.250 0.267 0.344 0.443 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 121437128 0.293 13590.374 44000 00 0.000 0.260 0.338 0.370 OK
Kyle Karros3B 10934091 0.268 10440.365 44000 02 0.000 0.247 0.329 0.401 OK
Willi Castro2B 109390103 0.264 14530.334 44200 01 0.500 0.256 0.320 0.396 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 10132892 0.280 3430.342 43000 02 0.000 0.269 0.329 0.381 OK
Brett SullivanC 5716840 0.238 7270.276 43000 11 0.000 0.130 0.189 0.304 OK
Zac VeenLF 8195 0.263 270.300 33100 00 0.333 0.135 0.177 0.267 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 22 110 0.182

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner BibeeStarter 26147.34.09 1.1747.1117 6.05221898 6.0 8 2
Cade SmithCloser 5453.52.36 1.17813.580 1.00000121 1.0 1 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 4935.23.84 1.53410.742 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4842.31.91 1.0179.846 1.00000018 1.0 0 0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gabriel HughesStarter 837.26.77 1.3988.033 4.15441583 4.1 5 4
Jordan RomanoCloser 1413.22.73 1.43910.215 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 5941.23.50 1.5058.137 2.00001029 2.0 0 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3832.07.03 1.84410.136 1.20000021 1.2 0 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-2


Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals

DET 61-67 (4.52 RPG / 3.91 RA)
2 - 4
KC 56-74 (4.2 RPG / 4.95 RA)
WINNER: KC wins 4-2 TARGET: DET 2 - 4 KC (KC) Confidence: 64.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
DET01000100028
KC01000201x44

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak6W

DET Season Quality

Record61-67
Win%0.477
Run Diff79
RD/Game0.617

KC Season Quality

Record56-74
Win%0.431
Run Diff-97
RD/Game-0.746

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6858; margin adjustment: -0.288; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 123471134 0.285 13530.387 55000 00 0.000 0.284 0.371 0.433 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 7126771 0.266 8340.375 44100 01 0.250 0.254 0.344 0.359 OK
Colt KeithDH 11533290 0.271 9310.321 44100 00 0.250 0.289 0.344 0.462 OK
Dillon DinglerC 118452115 0.254 26820.317 44100 01 0.250 0.179 0.223 0.332 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 9930569 0.226 4260.306 44211 01 0.500 0.238 0.321 0.349 OK
Brett CallahanLF 5134 0.308 150.308 43100 10 0.333 0.137 0.149 0.371 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 12643396 0.222 20620.315 44211 00 0.500 0.184 0.292 0.318 OK
Max ClarkCF 197319 0.260 190.316 44000 01 0.000 0.225 0.268 0.347 OK
Hao-Yu Lee3B 7721359 0.277 6300.316 43000 10 0.000 0.299 0.360 0.429 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 22 24 0.229

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 11841993 0.222 17570.305 44212 00 0.500 0.208 0.290 0.410 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 110431124 0.288 16470.361 43111 10 0.333 0.306 0.378 0.523 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 119427117 0.274 22600.325 44000 03 0.000 0.269 0.309 0.450 OK
Salvador PerezDH 119457101 0.221 16560.267 44111 01 0.250 0.224 0.253 0.339 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 8330776 0.248 8370.332 44000 00 0.000 0.300 0.372 0.494 OK
Nick Loftin3B 8927663 0.228 5360.318 32000 01 0.000 0.203 0.300 0.338 OK
Michael Massey2B 10533593 0.278 11430.310 33000 01 0.000 0.309 0.345 0.483 OK
Tyler TolbertLF 399930 0.303 380.369 32010 10 0.000 0.283 0.361 0.413 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 6820748 0.232 5190.281 32000 00 0.000 0.240 0.281 0.389 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32284 44 26 0.143

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew AndersonStarter 4369.14.43 1.43311.387 4.11110460 4.1 4 1
Kenley JansenCloser 3732.03.94 1.25011.240 1.01222124 1.0 1 2
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 5550.13.77 1.5178.648 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5145.12.99 1.6418.040 1.22110127 1.2 1 1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 25153.13.64 1.1697.1120 6.05221497 6.0 4 2
Steven CruzCloser 4644.04.70 1.34110.652 1.01001019 1.0 0 0
Nate PearsonSetup Man 1211.20.80 0.8938.010 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5239.94.51 1.5797.734 1.00000015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

KC wins 4-2


Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

LAA 51-78 (4.12 RPG / 4.67 RA)
5 - 4
TEX 64-65 (4.0 RPG / 4.35 RA)
WINNER: LAA wins 5-4 TARGET: LAA 5 - 4 TEX (LAA) Confidence: 52.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
1234567891011RH
LAA0000000301158
TEX01000101010410

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed2.3
Run Diff23
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.3
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-15
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

LAA Season Quality

Record51-78
Win%0.395
Run Diff-71
RD/Game-0.550

TEX Season Quality

Record64-65
Win%0.496
Run Diff-45
RD/Game-0.349

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0325; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 125497115 0.231 21610.314 55110 01 0.200 0.261 0.318 0.447 OK
Mike TroutCF 11039894 0.236 20450.379 55211 01 0.400 0.201 0.317 0.325 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 8329974 0.247 7490.307 55000 02 0.000 0.248 0.298 0.364 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 16608 0.133 020.200 55000 02 0.000 0.189 0.260 0.293 OK
Jose SiriRF 6014537 0.255 7230.301 55110 00 0.200 0.245 0.290 0.426 OK
Gustavo CamperoLF 000 0.000 000.000 44110 00 0.250 0.245 0.310 0.399
Denzer Guzman3B 5118644 0.237 6230.279 44100 01 0.250 0.230 0.265 0.381 OK
Christian Moore2B 6204 0.200 010.227 44214 00 0.500 0.118 0.164 0.164 OK
Travis d'ArnaudDH 20509 0.180 130.281 44000 03 0.000 0.191 0.264 0.279 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41418 55 010 0.195

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 11533179 0.239 22460.329 55000 00 0.000 0.142 0.237 0.312 OK
Corey SeagerSS 6825356 0.221 13310.316 55211 01 0.400 0.271 0.342 0.473 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 7730075 0.250 14340.316 55000 01 0.000 0.205 0.269 0.355 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 123470125 0.266 13480.331 54211 10 0.500 0.209 0.263 0.350 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 118417113 0.271 13640.327 55200 00 0.400 0.277 0.337 0.441 OK
Evan CarterCF 10931462 0.197 8310.295 55211 01 0.400 0.233 0.305 0.343 OK
Jake Burger1B 122447105 0.235 21730.295 55111 02 0.200 0.227 0.283 0.396 OK
Cody Freeman2B 13298 0.276 010.364 54100 10 0.250 0.270 0.354 0.297 OK
Danny JansenC 4213021 0.162 3120.264 55000 02 0.000 0.122 0.200 0.243 OK
TEAM TOTALS 454310 44 27 0.233

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan JohnsonStarter 1558.76.59 1.5847.247 4.16331383 4.1 3 3
Ben JoyceCloser 76.20.00 0.80613.19 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Ryan WatsonSetup Man 53.40.00 1.17618.57 1.22111022 1.2 0 1
Blake WeimanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 66.31.43 1.74611.48 1.11000222 1.1 2 0
Sammy PeraltaReliever 23.06.00 1.66715.05 1.01000024 0.0 0 0
Tayler SaucedoReliever 146.68.18 2.12116.412 1.00000114 0.0 1 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cody BradfordStarter 315.12.98 1.4576.010 5.11220778 5.1 7 2
Jacob LatzCloser 4555.21.30 0.70710.363 1.11000122 1.1 1 0
Jakob JunisSetup Man 4039.63.18 1.1877.332 1.03110122 0.0 1 1
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 118.63.14 1.51210.510 2.11110132 2.1 1 1
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5847.53.79 1.5169.349 1.02110019 0.0 0 1

Game Summary

LAA wins 5-4


Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres

MIN 63-66 (4.6 RPG / 4.95 RA)
3 - 4
SD 69-60 (4.26 RPG / 4.2 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 4-3 TARGET: MIN 3 - 4 SD (SD) Confidence: 58.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIN100000002310
SD000002002411

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff17
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

MIN Season Quality

Record63-66
Win%0.488
Run Diff-45
RD/Game-0.349

SD Season Quality

Record69-60
Win%0.535
Run Diff7
RD/Game0.054

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4964; margin adjustment: 0.2085; applied: True

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 119405110 0.272 7360.362 55211 00 0.400 0.280 0.348 0.386 OK
Byron BuxtonCF 8935590 0.254 25460.317 55111 02 0.200 0.193 0.246 0.349 OK
Josh BellDH 124456117 0.257 17770.321 54211 10 0.500 0.261 0.319 0.441 OK
Ryan JeffersC 6322262 0.279 10420.378 55100 02 0.200 0.231 0.325 0.415 OK
Kody Clemens2B 11141498 0.237 21630.293 43100 10 0.333 0.253 0.301 0.490 OK
Royce Lewis1B 9434482 0.238 13450.310 44000 00 0.000 0.215 0.281 0.356 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 10233589 0.266 10410.346 44000 00 0.000 0.224 0.294 0.342 OK
Brooks Lee3B 120454110 0.242 18660.296 43100 11 0.333 0.228 0.270 0.385 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 113811 0.289 120.349 44200 01 0.500 0.260 0.298 0.358 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403710 33 36 0.270

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 125493140 0.284 15610.355 55000 02 0.000 0.303 0.362 0.538 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 7625958 0.224 4200.314 55210 00 0.400 0.219 0.299 0.310 OK
Manny Machado3B 126469102 0.217 24720.301 55100 01 0.200 0.279 0.350 0.455 OK
Ty France1B 9732896 0.293 18550.351 55112 00 0.200 0.268 0.326 0.499 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 125487116 0.238 19630.288 43100 10 0.333 0.203 0.246 0.339 OK
Luis RengifoLF 3110734 0.318 4140.407 44200 01 0.500 0.281 0.352 0.393 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 11734574 0.214 16460.316 44100 01 0.250 0.230 0.314 0.423 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 12241791 0.218 11460.318 43112 11 0.333 0.196 0.300 0.302 OK
Freddy FerminC 6419437 0.191 4160.260 43210 11 0.667 0.194 0.246 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403711 44 37 0.297

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dean KremerStarter 317.13.16 0.8197.915 5.04223499 5.0 4 2
Yoendrys GómezCloser 4434.82.07 1.29310.139 1.03220122 1.0 1 2
Jeff HoffmanSetup Man 77.02.57 1.57112.910 0.10000018 0.1 0 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4952.13.80 1.4789.756 1.01000219 1.0 2 0
A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 107.51.20 0.9336.05 0.23000017 0.2 0 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Casey MizeStarter 315.15.96 1.5236.010 5.251134102 5.2 4 1
Mason MillerCloser 5150.30.89 0.85517.598 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 5859.63.17 1.24212.583 1.11000121 1.1 1 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5349.42.37 1.21511.161 1.04220125 1.0 1 2

Game Summary

SD wins 4-3


New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox

NYM 58-71 (4.15 RPG / 4.49 RA)
3 - 4
CHW 67-61 (4.77 RPG / 4.41 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 4-3 TARGET: NYM 3 - 4 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM00100002036
CHW00100300x46

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff11
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYM Season Quality

Record58-71
Win%0.450
Run Diff-44
RD/Game-0.341

CHW Season Quality

Record67-61
Win%0.523
Run Diff47
RD/Game0.367

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6024; margin adjustment: 0.253; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
A.J. EwingCF 8731578 0.248 7280.324 54000 13 0.000 0.223 0.304 0.329 OK
Francisco LindorSS 7027465 0.237 12320.324 43111 10 0.333 0.213 0.290 0.368 OK
Bo Bichette3B 124496133 0.268 13650.314 44000 00 0.000 0.279 0.326 0.477 OK
Carson BengeRF 119454122 0.269 15500.331 44110 00 0.250 0.260 0.312 0.408 OK
Jared Young1B 7422861 0.268 7270.333 44212 01 0.500 0.275 0.317 0.424 OK
Luis Robert Jr.LF 4716636 0.217 7190.286 44100 02 0.250 0.221 0.288 0.386 OK
Brett BatyDH 10634876 0.218 8400.283 42000 20 0.000 0.213 0.278 0.344 OK
Marcus Semien2B 10637682 0.218 14420.278 44000 01 0.000 0.239 0.298 0.350 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 8628465 0.229 12280.319 44100 00 0.250 0.180 0.256 0.321 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 33 47 0.182

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Sam AntonacciLF 10737099 0.268 8360.363 43110 00 0.333 0.250 0.325 0.362 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 9333375 0.225 29580.362 44110 01 0.250 0.206 0.347 0.496 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 125469114 0.243 29740.349 44211 02 0.500 0.292 0.391 0.593 OK
Andrew BenintendiDH 11334385 0.248 13630.311 43000 10 0.000 0.254 0.322 0.429 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 6021751 0.235 4300.324 43000 12 0.000 0.237 0.318 0.362 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 12145699 0.217 27720.296 44100 01 0.250 0.254 0.316 0.490 OK
Chase Meidroth2B 122455123 0.270 12490.343 43000 10 0.000 0.230 0.293 0.345 OK
Tristan PetersCF 11634091 0.268 7430.327 44113 00 0.250 0.256 0.309 0.401 OK
Drew RomoC 5015922 0.138 7160.216 32000 11 0.000 0.156 0.224 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35306 44 47 0.200

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Christian ScottStarter 1880.73.68 1.35111.7105 5.041135100 5.0 5 1
Kodai SengaCloser 1948.18.23 1.76711.260 0.22331026 0.2 0 3
Daniel DuarteSetup Man 1719.90.90 0.6539.020 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 85.80.00 0.51715.510 1.10000023 1.1 0 0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 315.24.74 1.2509.516 5.13114596 5.1 5 1
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10000121 1.1 1 0
Sean NewcombSetup Man 4558.22.94 1.2549.964 1.10000121 1.1 1 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3427.13.65 1.66112.337 1.03220022 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-3


Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros

OAK 49-80 (4.32 RPG / 5.78 RA)
3 - 4
HOU 65-64 (4.55 RPG / 4.88 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 4-3 TARGET: OAK 3 - 4 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
OAK01002000035
HOU10000030x47

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed6.2
Run Diff-21
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak5L

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

OAK Season Quality

Record49-80
Win%0.380
Run Diff-189
RD/Game-1.465

HOU Season Quality

Record65-64
Win%0.504
Run Diff-42
RD/Game-0.326

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9904; margin adjustment: 0.416; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 8228576 0.267 6260.336 44112 01 0.250 0.264 0.315 0.356 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 11135793 0.261 6430.309 44000 02 0.000 0.250 0.285 0.364 OK
Zack Gelof3B 7426871 0.265 14360.325 44000 00 0.000 0.215 0.273 0.381 OK
Carlos CortesLF 9326168 0.261 7350.333 44100 01 0.250 0.256 0.320 0.386 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 11434875 0.216 11360.301 44111 01 0.250 0.238 0.316 0.408 OK
Tommy White1B 3011328 0.248 240.274 44210 02 0.500 0.238 0.267 0.337 OK
Jonah HeimC 6823147 0.203 10310.265 33000 03 0.000 0.157 0.232 0.275 OK
Donovan WaltonSS 265713 0.228 050.405 32000 10 0.000 0.282 0.369 0.433 OK
Max MuncyDH 6319742 0.213 6240.288 33000 00 0.000 0.213 0.289 0.381 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 33 110 0.156

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 7831188 0.283 14400.338 44100 01 0.250 0.227 0.269 0.412 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 126454147 0.324 36900.438 43111 11 0.333 0.375 0.469 0.630 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 121442114 0.258 16680.353 44212 01 0.500 0.314 0.389 0.488 OK
Jose Altuve2B 10239698 0.247 13370.309 43111 11 0.333 0.269 0.326 0.387 OK
Christian Walker1B 122451106 0.235 23720.312 44000 01 0.000 0.226 0.285 0.394 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 15568 0.143 130.226 44210 00 0.500 0.219 0.271 0.334 OK
Yainer DiazC 6323660 0.254 8270.282 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.282 0.355 OK
Cam SmithRF 11741290 0.218 17470.284 32000 10 0.000 0.177 0.232 0.380 OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF 338719 0.218 2150.340 33000 01 0.000 0.218 0.331 0.314 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34317 44 38 0.226

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob LopezStarter 2085.25.39 1.5858.681 4.24333695 4.2 6 3
Hogan HarrisCloser 5844.44.66 1.93714.672 1.00000022 1.0 0 0
Elvis AlvaradoSetup Man 4134.75.19 1.44112.749 0.23110117 0.2 1 1
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4151.93.47 1.48411.667 1.20000123 1.2 1 0

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Hunter BrownStarter 1366.83.77 1.3329.772 5.25331693 5.2 6 3
Josh HaderCloser 3130.30.59 0.69312.241 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Steven OkertSetup Man 6355.52.27 0.95510.464 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4942.84.63 1.51912.861 1.10000112 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 4-3


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers

PIT 63-67 (5.0 RPG / 4.77 RA)
3 - 4
LAD 78-51 (5.0 RPG / 3.87 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 3 - 4 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT00010200034
LAD40000000x45

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.8
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak4W

PIT Season Quality

Record63-67
Win%0.485
Run Diff30
RD/Game0.231

LAD Season Quality

Record78-51
Win%0.605
Run Diff146
RD/Game1.132

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7643; margin adjustment: 0.321; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Gonzales2B 117445137 0.308 4530.364 44110 01 0.250 0.314 0.370 0.397 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezRF 5618444 0.239 11330.356 44100 02 0.250 0.232 0.339 0.454 OK
Bryan ReynoldsDH 127467124 0.266 15660.375 44112 00 0.250 0.258 0.350 0.413 OK
Oneil CruzCF 6625969 0.266 16490.356 43111 10 0.333 0.273 0.367 0.560 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.1B 175215 0.288 6120.373 44000 01 0.000 0.280 0.359 0.642 OK
Jake MangumLF 96342103 0.301 4280.350 33000 00 0.000 0.283 0.327 0.379 OK
Nick Yorke3B 278619 0.221 1120.277 33000 01 0.000 0.149 0.191 0.223 OK
Jared TrioloSS 8425761 0.237 2230.315 33000 01 0.000 0.216 0.275 0.294 OK
Henry DavisC 7222237 0.167 8320.249 33000 02 0.000 0.100 0.164 0.160 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32314 33 18 0.129

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 118455132 0.290 30780.390 44110 02 0.250 0.301 0.394 0.590 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 124469141 0.301 15590.374 44110 01 0.250 0.284 0.351 0.418 OK
Mookie BettsSS 9035485 0.240 16460.291 43000 10 0.000 0.272 0.321 0.461 OK
Max Muncy3B 11738596 0.249 26660.341 43011 00 0.000 0.265 0.348 0.627 OK
Tommy Edman2B 4817146 0.269 4220.332 44000 02 0.000 0.272 0.314 0.413 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 11842698 0.230 11550.320 32113 11 0.500 0.193 0.275 0.315 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 9232480 0.247 11420.308 33100 02 0.333 0.236 0.294 0.376 OK
Alek ThomasCF 000 0.000 000.000 33100 00 0.333 0.191 0.218 0.360
Ben RortvedtC 8163 0.188 010.188 33000 00 0.000 0.182 0.193 0.249 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32295 44 28 0.172

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jared JonesStarter 1463.34.83 1.21610.272 4.25442691 4.2 6 4
Mason MontgomeryCloser 5244.13.47 1.24717.184 2.00000125 2.0 1 0
Luke WeaverSetup Man 55.05.40 1.20012.67 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tarik SkubalStarter 317.03.18 1.23510.119 6.04331792 6.0 7 3
Tanner ScottCloser 5546.92.49 1.00212.163 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Edgardo HenriquezSetup Man 5144.93.41 1.18011.256 1.0000003 1.0 0 0
Brock StewartMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1614.72.45 0.74810.417 1.00000015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3


San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox

SF 53-76 (4.06 RPG / 4.63 RA)
3 - 6
BOS 69-59 (4.54 RPG / 3.78 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 6-3 TARGET: SF 3 - 6 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 64.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SF02100000039
BOS21000021x68

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-15
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff14
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

SF Season Quality

Record52-76
Win%0.406
Run Diff-78
RD/Game-0.609

BOS Season Quality

Record69-59
Win%0.539
Run Diff97
RD/Game0.758

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.245; margin adjustment: 0.5229; applied: True

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Victor BericotoLF 288020 0.250 4110.259 55210 01 0.400 0.229 0.242 0.386 OK
Rafael DeversDH 127475117 0.246 25690.323 55100 01 0.200 0.233 0.317 0.471 OK
Willy AdamesSS 118452103 0.228 19490.286 55100 01 0.200 0.233 0.284 0.412 OK
Bryce Eldridge1B 8530074 0.247 14340.340 54000 12 0.000 0.238 0.330 0.424 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 206816 0.235 380.264 43100 00 0.333 0.219 0.237 0.362 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 115439129 0.294 8440.331 44211 01 0.500 0.250 0.286 0.377 OK
Christian Koss3B 329319 0.204 020.237 44212 01 0.500 0.218 0.256 0.307 OK
Drew GilbertCF 9526665 0.244 7310.314 43000 11 0.000 0.230 0.291 0.419 OK
Andrew KniznerC 470 0.000 000.222 43000 12 0.000 0.095 0.268 0.194
TEAM TOTALS 40369 33 310 0.250

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Sogard2B 3211631 0.267 170.377 55114 03 0.200 0.289 0.386 0.421 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 119478136 0.285 15620.321 44210 02 0.500 0.267 0.286 0.392 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 123467123 0.263 22680.343 42010 20 0.000 0.289 0.371 0.499 OK
Willson Contreras1B 114399113 0.283 26780.394 43110 12 0.333 0.283 0.380 0.582 OK
Adley RutschmanC 9316 0.194 140.324 43000 10 0.000 0.251 0.327 0.425 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 11640199 0.247 12590.315 44110 02 0.250 0.272 0.322 0.385 OK
Jarren DuranLF 11845494 0.207 17560.267 44000 02 0.000 0.273 0.320 0.432 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 8426067 0.258 6380.316 43000 11 0.000 0.238 0.297 0.376 OK
Mickey GasperDH 3812030 0.250 3150.321 44312 00 0.750 0.253 0.318 0.430 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37328 66 512 0.250

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Blade TidwellStarter 1126.34.45 1.2556.820 5.053337102 5.0 7 3
Dylan SmithCloser 2823.33.09 1.33012.733 1.00000218 1.0 2 0
Sam HentgesSetup Man 3623.73.80 2.02512.533 0.22222222 0.2 2 2
JT BrubakerMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3954.03.50 1.2786.539 1.11110129 1.1 1 1

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Patrick SandovalStarter 733.34.86 1.8929.535 5.07331789 5.0 7 3
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 4342.21.28 1.11411.956 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Erik MillerSetup Man 88.10.00 0.98815.614 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Tyron GuerreroMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3228.32.23 1.06011.135 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5041.14.60 1.41110.347 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-3


St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies

STL 66-65 (4.44 RPG / 4.44 RA)
5 - 3
PHI 72-58 (4.56 RPG / 4.37 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 5-3 TARGET: STL 5 - 3 PHI (STL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
STL00100120158
PHI00002000135

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak7W

STL Season Quality

Record66-64
Win%0.508
Run Diff9
RD/Game0.069

PHI Season Quality

Record71-58
Win%0.550
Run Diff16
RD/Game0.124

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.143; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ WetherholtSS 120472114 0.242 16450.345 55312 00 0.600 0.220 0.290 0.331 OK
Iván HerreraDH 126475114 0.240 13510.353 55210 01 0.400 0.213 0.295 0.335 OK
Alec Burleson1B 125479138 0.288 21900.353 55212 01 0.400 0.209 0.271 0.371 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 123478139 0.291 25910.351 43010 11 0.000 0.285 0.336 0.575 OK
Joshua BaezLF 7245 0.208 490.286 43000 10 0.000 0.204 0.292 0.616 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 9832377 0.238 9400.282 44111 00 0.250 0.143 0.190 0.216 OK
José FermínLF 8623761 0.257 5310.328 43000 01 0.000 0.276 0.350 0.407 OK
Jimmy CrooksC 4412021 0.175 4120.242 44000 02 0.000 0.120 0.185 0.234 OK
Blaze Jordan3B 5017141 0.240 2250.260 43000 10 0.000 0.228 0.256 0.331 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 55 36 0.229

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 121456110 0.241 36730.357 43000 11 0.000 0.206 0.305 0.392 OK
Trea TurnerSS 121505125 0.248 17490.299 44000 02 0.000 0.234 0.289 0.359 OK
Bryce HarperRF 127447115 0.257 25720.380 43000 11 0.000 0.265 0.404 0.461 OK
Luis Arraez2B 167122 0.310 2110.324 43100 11 0.333 0.349 0.374 0.470 OK
Alec Bohm1B 122460113 0.246 14730.304 44111 00 0.250 0.278 0.321 0.442 OK
Edmundo Sosa3B 6418741 0.219 5300.259 44100 00 0.250 0.234 0.267 0.372 OK
Bryan De La CruzLF 133111 0.355 280.405 44111 01 0.250 0.331 0.373 0.536 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 9331970 0.219 8420.294 44111 00 0.250 0.230 0.302 0.338 OK
Derek HillCF 318622 0.256 5160.289 33000 02 0.000 0.147 0.187 0.257 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 33 38 0.156

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Quinn MathewsStarter 29.03.00 1.55610.010 4.22221796 4.2 7 2
Riley O'BrienCloser 5349.93.07 1.1629.653 2.0100007 2.0 0 0
George SorianoSetup Man 5848.34.84 1.47010.657 1.00001120 1.0 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5542.35.32 1.67811.152 1.12111020 1.1 0 1

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew PainterStarter 1883.06.61 1.5907.771 4.15443390 4.1 3 4
Jhoan DuranCloser 4845.41.39 0.99112.965 1.12000023 1.1 0 0
Jonathan BowlanSetup Man 4942.73.16 1.12412.258 1.20000221 1.2 2 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5545.43.96 1.38810.955 1.21110124 1.2 1 1

Game Summary

STL wins 5-3


Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

TB 76-52 (4.55 RPG / 4.21 RA)
4 - 3
BAL 62-67 (4.49 RPG / 4.75 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 4 - 3 BAL (TB) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TB00000040046
BAL00003000034

TB Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-7
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TB Season Quality

Record76-52
Win%0.594
Run Diff43
RD/Game0.336

BAL Season Quality

Record62-67
Win%0.481
Run Diff-34
RD/Game-0.264

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4328; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 122481148 0.308 19720.376 55110 02 0.200 0.297 0.352 0.490 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 124469133 0.284 15760.366 53000 22 0.000 0.178 0.256 0.265 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 116451139 0.308 0270.333 54000 11 0.000 0.298 0.323 0.350 OK
Junior Caminero3B 127485134 0.276 35810.364 54112 11 0.250 0.274 0.342 0.455 OK
Liam HicksC 144312 0.279 290.426 43000 11 0.000 0.239 0.323 0.359 OK
Jonny DeLucaRF 7424265 0.269 8360.300 44100 03 0.250 0.240 0.269 0.368 OK
Richie Palacios2B 9427065 0.241 5390.339 44111 02 0.250 0.247 0.336 0.352 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 10736876 0.207 13390.285 42000 21 0.000 0.124 0.209 0.204 OK
Taylor WallsSS 9830868 0.221 2310.306 44211 00 0.500 0.232 0.303 0.341 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40336 44 713 0.182

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson Holliday2B 7322351 0.229 6260.315 43111 10 0.333 0.204 0.283 0.317 OK
Pete AlonsoDH 126473129 0.273 30850.363 44111 03 0.250 0.297 0.369 0.560 OK
Coby Mayo1B 9630164 0.213 17470.279 44000 03 0.000 0.212 0.273 0.453 OK
Tyler O'NeillRF 8022048 0.218 10220.309 44000 00 0.000 0.199 0.278 0.339 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 125502111 0.221 19500.306 44100 00 0.250 0.252 0.329 0.409 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 268519 0.224 5200.272 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.262 0.438 OK
Christian FranklinLF 10224 0.182 000.333 32000 10 0.000 0.163 0.310 0.249 OK
Leody TaverasCF 10634479 0.230 7440.300 33111 01 0.333 0.241 0.298 0.365 OK
Carlos NarváezC 14383 0.079 000.167 33000 01 0.000 0.122 0.184 0.209 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 33 29 0.129

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane McClanahanStarter 21100.03.33 1.1508.594 5.04332585 5.0 5 3
Bryan BakerCloser 5148.61.48 0.88510.456 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Kevin KellySetup Man 5449.62.18 0.9888.245 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 67.13.80 1.26810.18 1.10000118 1.1 1 0
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4532.24.47 1.55313.448 0.20000111 0.2 1 0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon YoungStarter 21114.43.62 1.3907.696 5.100058106 5.1 8 0
Andrew KittredgeCloser 4434.63.90 1.5038.633 1.00000125 1.0 1 0
Yennier CanoSetup Man 5334.22.89 1.14010.038 0.25442231 0.2 2 4
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5948.62.96 0.94710.657 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Josh WalkerMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1612.73.54 1.65410.615 1.00000015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

TOR 64-67 (3.95 RPG / 4.34 RA)
3 - 4
NYY 73-56 (4.43 RPG / 3.69 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: TOR 3 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TOR10010100035
NYY00110002x46

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed2.3
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak5W

TOR Season Quality

Record63-67
Win%0.485
Run Diff-51
RD/Game-0.392

NYY Season Quality

Record73-55
Win%0.570
Run Diff96
RD/Game0.750

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8821; margin adjustment: 0.3705; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 125316 0.302 040.339 44110 00 0.250 0.272 0.302 0.384 OK
Alejandro KirkC 5218352 0.284 7280.359 44000 02 0.000 0.295 0.377 0.468 OK
George SpringerDH 9536285 0.235 12390.315 44212 00 0.500 0.166 0.244 0.265 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 124461106 0.230 26740.301 44111 00 0.250 0.225 0.280 0.433 OK
Ernie Clement2B 126481137 0.285 9430.310 43000 11 0.000 0.273 0.300 0.355 OK
Charles McAdoo1B 185715 0.263 290.295 44000 00 0.000 0.261 0.298 0.397 OK
Myles StrawRF 9622648 0.212 3200.262 33100 00 0.333 0.187 0.254 0.284 OK
Daz CameronLF 3114 0.364 120.364 33000 01 0.000 0.329 0.337 0.644 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 11738893 0.240 8480.285 33000 01 0.000 0.233 0.259 0.331 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 33 15 0.156

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 10336882 0.223 16530.314 42000 20 0.000 0.238 0.327 0.427 OK
Ben RiceDH 120448112 0.250 33760.348 44011 01 0.000 0.222 0.318 0.484 OK
Heliot RamosLF 15496 0.122 010.246 43110 10 0.333 0.220 0.269 0.353 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 155614 0.250 240.283 44000 01 0.000 0.176 0.213 0.362 OK
Spencer JonesRF 5215335 0.229 7210.302 43000 11 0.000 0.243 0.302 0.451 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 155215 0.288 250.345 44212 00 0.500 0.265 0.322 0.369 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 11640788 0.216 17490.292 44000 00 0.000 0.167 0.251 0.295 OK
Austin WellsC 9125745 0.175 8170.266 33211 00 0.667 0.121 0.201 0.207 OK
José Caballero3B 10233379 0.237 12440.293 33100 01 0.333 0.227 0.289 0.369 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34306 44 44 0.200

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 23135.12.46 1.08113.4201 6.142234107 6.1 4 3
Louis VarlandCloser 5960.91.33 1.05111.880 1.0000105 1.0 0 1
Tyler RogersSetup Man 6054.61.65 1.2274.829 0.20000015 0.2 0 0
Spencer Miles 000.00 0.0000.00 0.02220015 - - -

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan WeathersStarter 24129.13.69 1.2399.8140 6.04330492 6.0 4 3
David BednarCloser 5353.62.52 1.06310.965 1.1000105 1.1 0 0
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 6653.11.86 1.39413.781 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5938.14.02 1.83715.465 0.20000013 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3


Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins

WAS 61-70 (5.19 RPG / 5.08 RA)
3 - 5
MIA 66-64 (4.36 RPG / 4.23 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 5-3 TARGET: WAS 3 - 5 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 60.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
12345678910RH
WAS000030000036
MIA000000300256

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff0
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Season Quality

Record61-69
Win%0.469
Run Diff16
RD/Game0.123

MIA Season Quality

Record65-64
Win%0.504
Run Diff15
RD/Game0.116

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1736; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Daylen LileDH 128491120 0.244 15660.292 55211 01 0.400 0.237 0.278 0.370 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 7628660 0.210 10270.280 55112 01 0.200 0.192 0.238 0.319 OK
Brady House3B 6623556 0.238 9310.297 44100 02 0.250 0.246 0.302 0.384 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 185413 0.241 590.268 44000 01 0.000 0.184 0.215 0.409 OK
Harry FordC 175211 0.212 270.317 43000 12 0.000 0.141 0.234 0.283 OK
Jose F Miranda2B 000 0.000 000.000 44000 00 0.000 0.250 0.312 0.386
Jacob YoungCF 10334686 0.249 10410.308 44000 01 0.000 0.248 0.299 0.365 OK
Nasim NuñezSS 11336983 0.225 1340.308 43110 11 0.333 0.216 0.291 0.249 OK
Andrew PinckneyLF 7133 0.231 120.312 44100 01 0.250 0.150 0.212 0.360 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38366 33 210 0.167

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Xavier Edwards2B 127469134 0.286 6470.366 55000 01 0.000 0.288 0.370 0.358 OK
Griffin Conine1B 5917647 0.267 14300.355 55111 02 0.200 0.270 0.349 0.540 OK
Owen CaissieDH 9225958 0.224 13520.285 43110 11 0.333 0.222 0.279 0.407 OK
Otto LopezSS 125501154 0.307 9550.343 43110 00 0.333 0.261 0.307 0.367 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 12141285 0.206 7290.325 44000 01 0.000 0.212 0.323 0.321 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 9531872 0.226 18510.298 44112 02 0.250 0.221 0.295 0.416 OK
Joe MackC 7522953 0.231 12360.287 44112 00 0.250 0.225 0.278 0.395 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 10033093 0.282 6500.314 44100 01 0.250 0.285 0.320 0.467 OK
Esteury RuizRF 6515038 0.253 6110.327 44000 00 0.000 0.144 0.197 0.277 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38366 55 18 0.167

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jake IrvinStarter 1570.45.88 1.3789.272 4.23330585 4.2 5 3
Clayton BeeterCloser 4135.73.53 1.45710.140 2.00000115 2.0 1 0
Orlando RibaltaSetup Man 4135.63.54 1.2649.437 1.12000023 0.0 0 0
Will DionMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 511.30.00 0.53110.413 1.1000014 1.1 1 0
Jake BirdMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 55.15.29 1.37312.47 0.10001118 0.0 1 0
Brad LordReliever 3158.74.29 1.3468.958 0.1222003 0.0 0 2

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eury PérezStarter 22121.53.26 1.1199.9133 6.05331695 6.0 6 3
Pete FairbanksCloser 4237.76.21 1.35313.456 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Calvin FaucherSetup Man 5446.14.69 1.62711.961 1.11000120 1.1 1 0
Tyler ZuberMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2921.94.11 1.59812.330 1.20001224 0.2 2 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-3