| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ ATL | 2 - 3 | 0 - 4 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 4-0 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BAL @ TB | 2 - 6 | 2 - 6 | TB | TB | TB wins 6-2 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BOS @ PIT | 2 - 3 | 1 - 3 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 3-1 | 51% | fallback_enhanced |
| CHW @ DET | 1 - 5 | 1 - 5 | DET | DET | DET wins 5-1 | 66% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| COL @ SF | 4 - 5 | 3 - 5 | SF | SF | SF wins 5-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| KC @ LAA | 4 - 5 | 3 - 5 | LAA | LAA | LAA wins 5-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIA @ CIN | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | CIN | CIN | CIN wins 3-2 | 51% | fallback_enhanced |
| MIL @ LAD | 3 - 4 | 2 - 5 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYY @ TOR | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 5-3 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SD @ CLE | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | SD | SD | SD wins 4-3 | 61% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SEA @ HOU | 2 - 3 | 2 - 4 | HOU | HOU | HOU wins 4-2 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| STL @ CHC | 4 - 5 | 3 - 5 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 5-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TEX @ OAK | 0 - 4 | 0 - 4 | OAK | OAK | OAK wins 4-0 | 51% | fallback_enhanced |
| WAS @ NYM | 3 - 2 | 5 - 1 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 5-1 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ATL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.7579; margin adjustment: 0.3183; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 117 | 420 | 103 | 0.245 | 9 | 42 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.350 | 0.374 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 118 | 444 | 108 | 0.243 | 18 | 57 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.293 | 0.517 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 93 | 331 | 101 | 0.305 | 8 | 53 | 0.383 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.357 | 0.440 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 115 | 465 | 117 | 0.252 | 21 | 67 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.317 | 0.460 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 115 | 396 | 96 | 0.242 | 18 | 58 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.288 | 0.402 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 92 | 324 | 88 | 0.272 | 7 | 51 | 0.315 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.214 | 0.266 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | CF | 58 | 177 | 41 | 0.232 | 6 | 26 | 0.280 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.231 | 0.281 | 0.365 | OK |
| Tyler Locklear | DH | 13 | 34 | 10 | 0.294 | 1 | 6 | 0.375 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.351 | 0.456 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | LF | 55 | 182 | 51 | 0.280 | 2 | 15 | 0.335 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.319 | 0.364 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | C | 98 | 379 | 105 | 0.277 | 20 | 61 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.357 | 0.432 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 121 | 468 | 123 | 0.263 | 35 | 74 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.319 | 0.556 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 115 | 439 | 128 | 0.292 | 20 | 67 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.283 | 0.399 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 121 | 462 | 119 | 0.258 | 20 | 64 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.289 | 0.411 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 115 | 429 | 114 | 0.266 | 10 | 61 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.282 | 0.352 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | RF | 100 | 265 | 62 | 0.234 | 9 | 33 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.260 | 0.336 | 0.490 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 120 | 429 | 96 | 0.224 | 15 | 58 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.314 | 0.468 | OK |
| Jim Jarvis | SS | 33 | 99 | 22 | 0.222 | 1 | 11 | 0.274 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.193 | 0.242 | 0.293 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 69 | 258 | 63 | 0.244 | 12 | 30 | 0.354 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.342 | 0.446 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 29 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0.207 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brandon Pfaadt | Starter | 21 | 82.4 | 3.50 | 1.250 | 5.9 | 54 | 6.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 100 | 6.1 | 9 | 2 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Middle Reliever | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 50 | 42.9 | 3.36 | 1.235 | 9.0 | 43 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chris Sale | Starter | 21 | 121.6 | 2.22 | 1.036 | 11.2 | 151 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 93 | 6.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 44 | 42.8 | 3.15 | 1.238 | 10.3 | 49 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 57 | 48.8 | 2.21 | 0.840 | 12.5 | 68 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever | 42 | 46.3 | 2.72 | 1.188 | 12.8 | 66 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
ATL wins 4-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | x | 6 | 9 |
Quality edge: 1.0145; margin adjustment: 0.4261; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 118 | 441 | 115 | 0.261 | 26 | 77 | 0.354 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.316 | 0.398 | 0.605 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 65 | 190 | 45 | 0.237 | 6 | 22 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.308 | 0.382 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | DH | 89 | 277 | 60 | 0.217 | 15 | 45 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.278 | 0.441 | OK |
| Tyler O'Neill | RF | 74 | 201 | 44 | 0.219 | 10 | 21 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.295 | 0.413 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 117 | 473 | 101 | 0.214 | 18 | 48 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.182 | 0.273 | 0.352 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | 19 | 59 | 13 | 0.220 | 3 | 11 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.256 | 0.381 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | LF | 98 | 317 | 71 | 0.224 | 7 | 43 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.221 | 0.284 | 0.390 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 94 | 239 | 51 | 0.213 | 8 | 27 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.248 | 0.275 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 8 | 23 | 3 | 0.130 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.155 | 0.214 | 0.226 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 114 | 449 | 137 | 0.305 | 17 | 69 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.317 | 0.358 | 0.495 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 116 | 436 | 125 | 0.287 | 15 | 73 | 0.374 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.350 | 0.384 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 108 | 417 | 128 | 0.307 | 0 | 25 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.362 | 0.384 | 0.427 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 119 | 452 | 126 | 0.279 | 35 | 77 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.254 | 0.334 | 0.527 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 8 | 26 | 8 | 0.308 | 2 | 9 | 0.438 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.340 | 0.444 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 47 | 155 | 33 | 0.213 | 10 | 21 | 0.281 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.207 | 0.268 | 0.460 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 100 | 348 | 72 | 0.207 | 13 | 37 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.223 | 0.283 | 0.336 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 87 | 248 | 59 | 0.238 | 5 | 35 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.373 | 0.384 | OK |
| Taylor Walls | SS | 91 | 287 | 62 | 0.216 | 2 | 28 | 0.305 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.239 | 0.316 | 0.398 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chris Bassitt | Starter | 12 | 54.7 | 5.43 | 1.682 | 6.1 | 37 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 82 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 51 | 33.9 | 2.12 | 1.003 | 9.8 | 37 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 41 | 31.6 | 3.99 | 1.487 | 8.5 | 30 | 1.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Steven Matz | Starter | 22 | 60.8 | 5.62 | 1.266 | 7.1 | 48 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 91 | 4.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 48 | 45.4 | 1.59 | 0.859 | 10.1 | 51 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 51 | 47.3 | 2.28 | 0.951 | 8.2 | 43 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 42 | 31.0 | 3.77 | 1.419 | 13.9 | 48 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 7 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Sogard | 2B | 25 | 89 | 22 | 0.247 | 0 | 3 | 0.368 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.338 | 0.334 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 80 | 248 | 65 | 0.262 | 4 | 26 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.269 | 0.335 | 0.399 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.444 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.324 | 0.372 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 108 | 378 | 105 | 0.278 | 24 | 72 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.295 | 0.431 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 116 | 440 | 113 | 0.257 | 21 | 64 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.340 | 0.502 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 109 | 375 | 92 | 0.245 | 12 | 57 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.279 | 0.327 | 0.467 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 112 | 432 | 86 | 0.199 | 16 | 55 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.198 | 0.256 | 0.346 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | SS | 77 | 234 | 63 | 0.269 | 6 | 32 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.285 | 0.346 | 0.424 | OK |
| Eli White | CF | 4 | 11 | 3 | 0.273 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.293 | 0.397 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 113 | 433 | 132 | 0.305 | 4 | 51 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.260 | 0.303 | 0.335 | OK |
| Ronny Simon | DH | 7 | 24 | 8 | 0.333 | 0 | 2 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.321 | 0.370 | 0.383 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 120 | 439 | 116 | 0.264 | 15 | 63 | 0.377 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.199 | 0.308 | 0.335 | OK |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | RF | 50 | 160 | 39 | 0.244 | 11 | 31 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.364 | 0.463 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 111 | 440 | 109 | 0.248 | 25 | 74 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.215 | 0.276 | 0.398 | OK |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | 1B | 10 | 30 | 7 | 0.233 | 3 | 8 | 0.343 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.327 | 0.535 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | CF | 89 | 321 | 98 | 0.305 | 4 | 28 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.300 | 0.332 | 0.437 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 77 | 234 | 59 | 0.252 | 2 | 23 | 0.330 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.343 | 0.431 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 68 | 211 | 36 | 0.171 | 8 | 30 | 0.257 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.173 | 0.240 | 0.263 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jake Bennett | Starter | 13 | 74.1 | 3.28 | 1.080 | 6.7 | 55 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 103 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 40 | 39.2 | 1.38 | 1.148 | 11.5 | 50 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 36 | 25.5 | 5.65 | 1.686 | 13.8 | 39 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bubba Chandler | Starter | 23 | 113.3 | 4.37 | 1.412 | 8.2 | 103 | 5.1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 87 | 5.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 47 | 40.0 | 3.82 | 1.325 | 16.9 | 75 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 49 | 46.4 | 3.49 | 1.121 | 11.6 | 60 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
PIT wins 3-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| DET | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | x | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.5489; margin adjustment: 0.2305; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 99 | 347 | 97 | 0.280 | 8 | 35 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.329 | 0.399 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 85 | 303 | 71 | 0.234 | 26 | 54 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.349 | 0.507 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 117 | 439 | 102 | 0.232 | 25 | 68 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.281 | 0.399 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 106 | 322 | 79 | 0.245 | 12 | 59 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.187 | 0.246 | 0.333 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 53 | 189 | 43 | 0.228 | 4 | 24 | 0.323 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.314 | 0.337 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 114 | 430 | 91 | 0.212 | 26 | 68 | 0.293 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.255 | 0.358 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 114 | 423 | 118 | 0.279 | 12 | 49 | 0.354 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.293 | 0.369 | 0.506 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 108 | 316 | 83 | 0.263 | 6 | 40 | 0.323 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.161 | 0.237 | 0.292 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 46 | 147 | 20 | 0.136 | 6 | 13 | 0.210 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.135 | 0.193 | 0.265 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0.100 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 64 | 238 | 61 | 0.256 | 8 | 31 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.310 | 0.349 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 111 | 424 | 113 | 0.267 | 26 | 81 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.254 | 0.400 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 116 | 443 | 127 | 0.287 | 12 | 48 | 0.392 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.349 | 0.371 | OK |
| Eduardo Valencia | DH | 15 | 44 | 17 | 0.386 | 5 | 14 | 0.413 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.365 | 0.385 | 0.777 | OK |
| Colt Keith | 3B | 108 | 315 | 83 | 0.263 | 8 | 30 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.176 | 0.218 | 0.284 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 119 | 413 | 95 | 0.230 | 20 | 62 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.290 | 0.379 | 0.442 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 92 | 286 | 64 | 0.224 | 4 | 24 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.322 | 0.344 | OK |
| Ben Malgeri | LF | 20 | 49 | 13 | 0.265 | 1 | 7 | 0.351 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.264 | 0.344 | 0.370 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 12 | 49 | 13 | 0.265 | 1 | 7 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.270 | 0.342 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sean Newcomb | Starter | 43 | 55.0 | 3.11 | 1.291 | 9.8 | 60 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 92 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 48 | 40.6 | 3.33 | 1.453 | 9.8 | 44 | 1.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 1.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jackson Jobe | Starter | 1 | 5.0 | 0.00 | 0.400 | 7.2 | 4 | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 71 | 5.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 35 | 30.8 | 3.51 | 1.234 | 10.8 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 48 | 42.7 | 3.16 | 1.639 | 7.8 | 37 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 52 | 47.9 | 3.19 | 1.420 | 8.3 | 44 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
DET wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| SF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.2624; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | CF | 100 | 380 | 114 | 0.300 | 13 | 66 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.310 | 0.339 | 0.531 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | LF | 81 | 281 | 76 | 0.270 | 19 | 53 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.271 | 0.443 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 3B | 102 | 366 | 97 | 0.265 | 13 | 49 | 0.335 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.269 | 0.332 | 0.437 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 115 | 416 | 123 | 0.296 | 13 | 58 | 0.372 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.269 | 0.336 | 0.376 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | DH | 98 | 318 | 90 | 0.283 | 3 | 42 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.274 | 0.322 | 0.374 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 2B | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.191 | 0.281 | 0.296 | |
| Zac Veen | RF | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.333 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.319 | 0.329 | 1.158 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 108 | 368 | 77 | 0.209 | 9 | 37 | 0.255 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.224 | 0.281 | OK |
| Brett Sullivan | C | 51 | 151 | 36 | 0.238 | 6 | 23 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.287 | 0.530 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jonah Cox | CF | 14 | 26 | 7 | 0.269 | 1 | 3 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.127 | 0.138 | 0.295 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | DH | 120 | 447 | 110 | 0.246 | 23 | 63 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.324 | 0.434 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | 1B | 78 | 274 | 67 | 0.245 | 12 | 29 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.238 | 0.328 | 0.421 | OK |
| Victor Bericoto | LF | 23 | 66 | 18 | 0.273 | 4 | 10 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.270 | 0.284 | 0.475 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 109 | 416 | 123 | 0.296 | 8 | 44 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.247 | 0.376 | OK |
| Osleivis Basabe | 2B | 13 | 43 | 11 | 0.256 | 3 | 8 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.260 | 0.465 | OK |
| Buddy Kennedy | 3B | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.067 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.077 | 0.147 | 0.139 | |
| Andrew Knizner | C | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.118 | 0.131 | 0.191 | |
| Christian Koss | SS | 25 | 70 | 13 | 0.186 | 0 | 2 | 0.208 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.199 | 0.223 | 0.246 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Freeland | Starter | 21 | 109.4 | 6.83 | 1.545 | 7.9 | 96 | 4.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 94 | 4.2 | 1 | 5 |
| Jordan Romano | Middle Reliever | 12 | 11.2 | 3.21 | 1.607 | 11.2 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 48 | 44.1 | 6.33 | 1.859 | 10.2 | 50 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Middle Reliever | 57 | 40.1 | 3.37 | 1.471 | 8.3 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Landen Roupp | Starter | 23 | 119.7 | 4.36 | 1.337 | 9.2 | 123 | 5.1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 96 | 5.1 | 7 | 3 |
| Dylan Smith | Middle Reliever | 26 | 20.3 | 3.55 | 1.478 | 12.0 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keaton Winn | Middle Reliever | 43 | 35.1 | 3.59 | 1.368 | 8.5 | 33 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| JT Brubaker | Middle Reliever | 37 | 52.0 | 3.63 | 1.288 | 6.4 | 37 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
SF wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| LAA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.1838; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 111 | 396 | 88 | 0.222 | 16 | 55 | 0.300 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.159 | 0.243 | 0.333 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 102 | 401 | 114 | 0.284 | 13 | 41 | 0.353 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.284 | 0.348 | 0.423 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | 1B | 112 | 403 | 107 | 0.266 | 21 | 53 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.335 | 0.545 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 3B | 82 | 254 | 61 | 0.240 | 5 | 35 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.206 | 0.286 | 0.337 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 98 | 310 | 80 | 0.258 | 9 | 39 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.152 | 0.188 | 0.285 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 106 | 339 | 79 | 0.233 | 6 | 35 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.280 | 0.307 | OK |
| John Rave | RF | 18 | 47 | 11 | 0.234 | 2 | 2 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.112 | 0.180 | 0.302 | OK |
| Josh Rojas | DH | 27 | 72 | 17 | 0.236 | 1 | 9 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.258 | 0.316 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 62 | 186 | 42 | 0.226 | 4 | 15 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.193 | 0.238 | 0.315 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Wade Meckler | LF | 59 | 185 | 56 | 0.303 | 3 | 20 | 0.365 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.304 | 0.368 | 0.397 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 103 | 372 | 91 | 0.245 | 20 | 45 | 0.388 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.285 | 0.391 | 0.457 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 101 | 373 | 101 | 0.271 | 7 | 42 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.232 | 0.335 | 0.327 | OK |
| Zach Neto | SS | 118 | 469 | 105 | 0.224 | 20 | 52 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.196 | 0.265 | 0.342 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 10 | 36 | 6 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.231 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.284 | 0.323 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 2B | 77 | 277 | 69 | 0.249 | 7 | 46 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.262 | 0.343 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | RF | 73 | 214 | 44 | 0.206 | 8 | 24 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.274 | 0.349 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 44 | 162 | 39 | 0.241 | 5 | 18 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.285 | 0.332 | OK |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 17 | 47 | 10 | 0.213 | 0 | 2 | 0.260 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.203 | 0.259 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Seth Lugo | Starter | 24 | 132.8 | 4.47 | 1.393 | 7.0 | 104 | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 102 | 6.0 | 6 | 4 |
| Alex Lange | Middle Reliever | 45 | 42.7 | 6.74 | 1.710 | 10.3 | 49 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Cruz | Middle Reliever | 42 | 39.9 | 4.74 | 1.353 | 11.3 | 50 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| John Schreiber | Middle Reliever | 48 | 36.7 | 4.41 | 1.662 | 8.1 | 33 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Middle Reliever | 7 | 6.2 | 0.00 | 0.806 | 8.7 | 6 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grayson Rodriguez | Starter | 12 | 52.9 | 7.49 | 1.682 | 8.5 | 50 | 4.1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 84 | 4.1 | 4 | 3 |
| Ben Joyce | Middle Reliever | 4 | 4.0 | 0.00 | 0.500 | 9.0 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Samy Natera Jr. | Middle Reliever | 22 | 23.5 | 2.30 | 0.936 | 16.1 | 42 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| José Fermin | Middle Reliever | 38 | 35.5 | 3.55 | 1.465 | 12.4 | 49 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Murphy | Middle Reliever | 5 | 4.4 | 4.09 | 2.045 | 8.2 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
LAA wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 3 | 8 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 114 | 389 | 80 | 0.206 | 6 | 28 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.321 | 0.332 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 120 | 443 | 125 | 0.282 | 6 | 46 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.326 | 0.332 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 118 | 474 | 148 | 0.312 | 9 | 53 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.279 | 0.356 | OK |
| Griffin Conine | DH | 53 | 154 | 43 | 0.279 | 13 | 27 | 0.369 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.297 | 0.389 | 0.612 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 88 | 293 | 66 | 0.225 | 17 | 46 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.271 | 0.428 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 93 | 307 | 84 | 0.274 | 4 | 42 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.273 | 0.313 | 0.402 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 87 | 245 | 56 | 0.229 | 13 | 52 | 0.287 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.266 | 0.429 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 71 | 214 | 50 | 0.234 | 11 | 35 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.285 | 0.366 | OK |
| Graham Pauley | 1B | 38 | 101 | 19 | 0.188 | 1 | 12 | 0.226 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.237 | 0.308 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 100 | 395 | 107 | 0.271 | 20 | 56 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.306 | 0.404 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 3B | 119 | 452 | 118 | 0.261 | 26 | 89 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.268 | 0.337 | 0.481 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 90 | 323 | 71 | 0.220 | 20 | 47 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.174 | 0.284 | 0.340 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 90 | 290 | 73 | 0.252 | 11 | 38 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.328 | 0.449 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | DH | 88 | 315 | 65 | 0.206 | 18 | 48 | 0.284 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.218 | 0.285 | 0.569 | OK |
| Michael Toglia | 1B | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0.200 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.138 | 0.152 | 0.278 | OK |
| Dane Myers | CF | 72 | 182 | 47 | 0.258 | 3 | 18 | 0.351 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.221 | 0.311 | 0.303 | OK |
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 55 | 181 | 36 | 0.199 | 6 | 15 | 0.236 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.145 | 0.182 | 0.234 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 91 | 309 | 59 | 0.191 | 10 | 28 | 0.289 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.182 | 0.274 | 0.349 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sandy Alcantara | Starter | 25 | 161.8 | 3.56 | 1.187 | 7.1 | 128 | 6.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 102 | 6.1 | 7 | 3 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 40 | 35.7 | 6.30 | 1.373 | 12.9 | 51 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 51 | 44.6 | 4.84 | 1.659 | 11.5 | 57 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chase Burns | Starter | 22 | 122.6 | 2.64 | 1.134 | 10.5 | 143 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 96 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Emilio Pagán | Middle Reliever | 27 | 25.4 | 4.25 | 1.142 | 10.3 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 39 | 34.1 | 3.17 | 1.144 | 10.0 | 38 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 61 | 50.5 | 3.21 | 1.465 | 10.0 | 56 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
CIN wins 3-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.0402; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 104 | 343 | 84 | 0.245 | 7 | 44 | 0.342 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.313 | 0.354 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 86 | 355 | 99 | 0.279 | 17 | 49 | 0.344 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.316 | 0.450 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 105 | 360 | 96 | 0.267 | 20 | 66 | 0.371 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.264 | 0.373 | 0.469 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 3B | 72 | 211 | 64 | 0.303 | 5 | 34 | 0.384 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 0.377 | 0.453 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 80 | 310 | 69 | 0.223 | 8 | 38 | 0.308 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.208 | 0.269 | 0.352 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 111 | 427 | 109 | 0.255 | 11 | 58 | 0.326 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.184 | 0.264 | 0.281 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 23 | 70 | 16 | 0.229 | 0 | 11 | 0.312 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.312 | 0.313 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 2B | 84 | 252 | 58 | 0.230 | 3 | 17 | 0.305 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.298 | 0.310 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | SS | 84 | 248 | 60 | 0.242 | 5 | 29 | 0.313 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.267 | 0.344 | 0.368 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 46 | 40 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0.175 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 111 | 427 | 124 | 0.290 | 27 | 72 | 0.391 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.368 | 0.531 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 119 | 463 | 124 | 0.268 | 19 | 75 | 0.333 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.293 | 0.369 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 85 | 298 | 74 | 0.248 | 11 | 41 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.212 | 0.267 | 0.347 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 83 | 324 | 78 | 0.241 | 15 | 39 | 0.292 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.192 | 0.250 | 0.382 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | 2B | 42 | 148 | 39 | 0.264 | 3 | 20 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.262 | 0.341 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 112 | 401 | 95 | 0.237 | 11 | 54 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.278 | 0.343 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 110 | 364 | 90 | 0.247 | 23 | 59 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.160 | 0.245 | 0.367 | OK |
| Enrique Hernández | 1B | 11 | 24 | 6 | 0.250 | 1 | 2 | 0.280 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.196 | 0.306 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 6 | 15 | 4 | 0.267 | 1 | 1 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.297 | 0.421 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 37 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0.162 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robert Gasser | Starter | 13 | 64.9 | 4.71 | 1.263 | 8.5 | 61 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 90 | 5.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 48 | 47.3 | 1.71 | 0.803 | 10.3 | 54 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 49 | 44.6 | 2.22 | 1.121 | 9.7 | 48 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 56 | 59.8 | 3.91 | 1.589 | 14.3 | 95 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Chad Patrick | Reliever | 40 | 81.5 | 3.31 | 1.252 | 8.6 | 78 | 0.1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0.1 | 0 | 3 |
| JoJo Romero | Reliever | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Starter | 21 | 137.7 | 2.68 | 0.901 | 8.3 | 127 | 6.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 115 | 6.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Edwin Díaz | Middle Reliever | 13 | 10.5 | 10.29 | 2.381 | 15.4 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 52 | 43.8 | 2.47 | 1.005 | 12.3 | 60 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan Phillips | Middle Reliever | 14 | 8.9 | 7.08 | 1.798 | 12.1 | 12 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 54 | 32.9 | 3.56 | 1.550 | 15.3 | 56 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
LAD wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 11)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.9073; margin adjustment: -0.3811; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 96 | 343 | 76 | 0.222 | 14 | 49 | 0.309 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.325 | 0.544 | OK |
| Ben Rice | DH | 113 | 421 | 108 | 0.257 | 31 | 72 | 0.354 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.338 | 0.497 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | RF | 45 | 127 | 27 | 0.213 | 5 | 18 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.212 | 0.297 | 0.393 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 8 | 31 | 8 | 0.258 | 1 | 2 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.302 | 0.470 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | LF | 8 | 25 | 2 | 0.080 | 0 | 0 | 0.233 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.111 | 0.164 | 0.212 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 109 | 386 | 84 | 0.218 | 17 | 48 | 0.294 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.280 | 0.349 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 90 | 259 | 57 | 0.220 | 10 | 31 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.291 | 0.363 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 84 | 239 | 43 | 0.180 | 8 | 17 | 0.273 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.159 | 0.238 | 0.301 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 8 | 29 | 8 | 0.276 | 2 | 2 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.315 | 0.391 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 6 | 27 | 7 | 0.259 | 0 | 3 | 0.310 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.239 | 0.298 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 85 | 284 | 76 | 0.268 | 6 | 21 | 0.319 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.245 | 0.276 | 0.349 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 113 | 427 | 112 | 0.262 | 7 | 46 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.309 | 0.342 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 89 | 343 | 80 | 0.233 | 12 | 36 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.206 | 0.283 | 0.319 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 45 | 157 | 41 | 0.261 | 4 | 19 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.277 | 0.334 | 0.363 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 117 | 433 | 98 | 0.226 | 24 | 71 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.258 | 0.334 | OK |
| Jesús Sánchez | LF | 83 | 237 | 63 | 0.266 | 8 | 32 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.247 | 0.307 | 0.404 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 120 | 461 | 129 | 0.280 | 9 | 42 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.248 | 0.323 | OK |
| Myles Straw | RF | 90 | 214 | 48 | 0.224 | 3 | 20 | 0.266 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.263 | 0.342 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Starter | 14 | 78.8 | 3.43 | 1.104 | 9.9 | 87 | 6.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 96 | 6.0 | 7 | 0 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 49 | 49.4 | 2.73 | 1.113 | 10.9 | 60 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 57 | 37.8 | 3.81 | 1.799 | 15.0 | 63 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 62 | 49.9 | 1.80 | 1.363 | 13.7 | 76 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shane Bieber | Starter | 9 | 40.1 | 5.84 | 1.771 | 7.2 | 32 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 98 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 56 | 57.9 | 1.40 | 1.071 | 11.8 | 76 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 57 | 51.5 | 1.75 | 1.243 | 4.9 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever | 36 | 70.7 | 3.44 | 1.231 | 9.2 | 72 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Mason Fluharty | Middle Reliever | 61 | 36.8 | 4.40 | 1.576 | 13.5 | 55 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.4567; margin adjustment: -0.1918; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 118 | 467 | 131 | 0.281 | 12 | 54 | 0.351 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.200 | 0.274 | 0.431 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | 69 | 234 | 51 | 0.218 | 3 | 19 | 0.307 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.284 | 0.286 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 119 | 442 | 94 | 0.213 | 23 | 70 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.282 | 0.342 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 90 | 305 | 90 | 0.295 | 17 | 51 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.313 | 0.354 | 0.508 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 118 | 462 | 114 | 0.247 | 19 | 63 | 0.294 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.281 | 0.316 | 0.513 | OK |
| Luis Campusano | C | 42 | 121 | 38 | 0.314 | 5 | 20 | 0.407 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.317 | 0.377 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | DH | 112 | 332 | 70 | 0.211 | 15 | 44 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.319 | 0.397 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 115 | 398 | 88 | 0.221 | 10 | 42 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.298 | 0.322 | OK |
| Luis Rengifo | LF | 25 | 85 | 27 | 0.318 | 3 | 12 | 0.414 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.248 | 0.326 | 0.355 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | DH | 108 | 384 | 101 | 0.263 | 2 | 22 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.355 | 0.324 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 101 | 386 | 111 | 0.288 | 13 | 57 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.344 | 0.425 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 76 | 278 | 68 | 0.245 | 12 | 43 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.242 | 0.386 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 7 | 23 | 5 | 0.217 | 1 | 6 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.256 | 0.319 | 0.439 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 87 | 322 | 77 | 0.239 | 9 | 35 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.195 | 0.293 | 0.290 | OK |
| Angel Genao | 3B | 7 | 27 | 8 | 0.296 | 1 | 3 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.230 | 0.366 | OK |
| Petey Halpin | CF | 43 | 114 | 25 | 0.219 | 2 | 7 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.168 | 0.191 | 0.245 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 48 | 143 | 31 | 0.217 | 5 | 18 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.113 | 0.188 | 0.189 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 117 | 412 | 105 | 0.255 | 9 | 50 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.264 | 0.304 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael King | Starter | 24 | 134.0 | 3.43 | 1.194 | 8.1 | 120 | 5.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 96 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 49 | 48.3 | 0.93 | 0.890 | 17.3 | 93 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 56 | 57.4 | 3.14 | 1.237 | 12.5 | 80 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 29 | 23.6 | 3.81 | 1.271 | 13.0 | 34 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gavin Williams | Starter | 24 | 142.1 | 3.61 | 1.056 | 11.7 | 185 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 94 | 6.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 51 | 51.4 | 2.45 | 1.187 | 13.5 | 77 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 46 | 33.0 | 4.09 | 1.576 | 10.6 | 39 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever | 45 | 40.9 | 1.54 | 0.929 | 10.1 | 46 | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 |
SD wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.2614; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Taylor Ward | RF | 8 | 32 | 5 | 0.156 | 0 | 0 | 0.156 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.329 | 0.318 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 122 | 443 | 116 | 0.262 | 14 | 52 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.174 | 0.225 | 0.282 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 114 | 420 | 116 | 0.276 | 16 | 52 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.229 | 0.304 | 0.423 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 105 | 318 | 80 | 0.252 | 19 | 50 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.289 | 0.436 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 110 | 432 | 111 | 0.257 | 19 | 52 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.305 | 0.412 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 113 | 436 | 115 | 0.264 | 10 | 43 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.266 | 0.334 | 0.420 | OK |
| Brendan Donovan | 3B | 30 | 108 | 27 | 0.250 | 3 | 8 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.266 | 0.327 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 88 | 320 | 51 | 0.159 | 12 | 43 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.146 | 0.250 | 0.270 | OK |
| Leo Rivas | SS | 39 | 108 | 14 | 0.130 | 0 | 7 | 0.258 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.132 | 0.241 | 0.176 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 73 | 293 | 85 | 0.290 | 13 | 38 | 0.348 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.215 | 0.259 | 0.350 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 119 | 431 | 140 | 0.325 | 35 | 87 | 0.439 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.405 | 0.525 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 114 | 418 | 104 | 0.249 | 15 | 62 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.288 | 0.344 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 9 | 32 | 4 | 0.125 | 1 | 2 | 0.243 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.260 | 0.325 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 116 | 428 | 102 | 0.238 | 22 | 67 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.151 | 0.239 | 0.278 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 95 | 371 | 89 | 0.240 | 13 | 35 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.264 | 0.325 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | LF | 59 | 166 | 39 | 0.235 | 7 | 20 | 0.317 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.307 | 0.435 | OK |
| Yainer Diaz | C | 58 | 222 | 56 | 0.252 | 8 | 27 | 0.282 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.243 | 0.278 | 0.361 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 111 | 392 | 88 | 0.224 | 16 | 43 | 0.294 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.319 | 0.497 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| George Kirby | Starter | 22 | 129.9 | 3.74 | 1.293 | 7.8 | 112 | 5.2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 105 | 5.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 45 | 41.8 | 3.44 | 1.172 | 14.9 | 69 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 54 | 44.4 | 3.85 | 1.486 | 8.3 | 41 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Peter Lambert | Starter | 20 | 111.1 | 3.16 | 1.179 | 9.0 | 111 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 101 | 5.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Josh Hader | Middle Reliever | 28 | 27.3 | 0.66 | 0.623 | 12.5 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Middle Reliever | 59 | 51.5 | 2.45 | 0.990 | 10.5 | 60 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 45 | 38.8 | 4.64 | 1.469 | 13.2 | 57 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
HOU wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | x | 5 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.7099; margin adjustment: 0.2982; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| JJ Wetherholt | 2B | 112 | 437 | 107 | 0.245 | 16 | 44 | 0.350 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.337 | 0.354 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | C | 118 | 446 | 109 | 0.244 | 12 | 49 | 0.354 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.261 | 0.331 | 0.400 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 117 | 448 | 129 | 0.288 | 19 | 83 | 0.353 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.283 | 0.350 | 0.500 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 115 | 445 | 127 | 0.285 | 21 | 79 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.263 | 0.317 | 0.449 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 93 | 306 | 74 | 0.242 | 9 | 38 | 0.285 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.295 | 0.369 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 110 | 400 | 97 | 0.242 | 4 | 49 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.298 | 0.316 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | DH | 40 | 95 | 21 | 0.221 | 3 | 12 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.276 | 0.339 | OK |
| José Fermín | LF | 80 | 222 | 54 | 0.243 | 5 | 27 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.311 | 0.323 | OK |
| César Prieto | 3B | 11 | 28 | 1 | 0.036 | 0 | 0 | 0.036 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.152 | 0.162 | 0.203 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 120 | 454 | 129 | 0.284 | 27 | 73 | 0.383 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.242 | 0.322 | 0.461 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | DH | 103 | 390 | 107 | 0.274 | 20 | 70 | 0.366 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.280 | 0.362 | 0.489 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 118 | 468 | 120 | 0.256 | 16 | 61 | 0.348 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.278 | 0.359 | 0.587 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 119 | 454 | 112 | 0.247 | 13 | 61 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.332 | 0.366 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 117 | 468 | 123 | 0.263 | 7 | 56 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.281 | 0.326 | 0.384 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 85 | 284 | 74 | 0.261 | 7 | 42 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.306 | 0.337 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 114 | 423 | 92 | 0.217 | 20 | 51 | 0.324 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.224 | 0.319 | 0.452 | OK |
| Tyrone Taylor | RF | 6 | 16 | 3 | 0.188 | 0 | 0 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.284 | 0.431 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 114 | 392 | 84 | 0.214 | 16 | 59 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.312 | 0.396 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0.324 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 23 | 110.4 | 5.30 | 1.567 | 9.0 | 110 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 90 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 49 | 46.8 | 3.27 | 1.175 | 9.4 | 49 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 54 | 45.9 | 4.12 | 1.394 | 10.4 | 53 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 51 | 39.1 | 5.06 | 1.688 | 11.3 | 49 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Clay Holmes | Starter | 1 | 4.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 2.2 | 1 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 98 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 53 | 48.1 | 2.62 | 1.289 | 11.2 | 60 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 4 | 2.4 | 11.25 | 2.500 | 15.0 | 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Trent Thornton | Middle Reliever | 34 | 33.6 | 2.68 | 1.190 | 5.1 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
CHC wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| OAK | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 70 | 273 | 69 | 0.253 | 13 | 31 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.179 | 0.251 | 0.319 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 116 | 441 | 121 | 0.274 | 13 | 47 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.329 | 0.460 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 62 | 230 | 46 | 0.200 | 12 | 29 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.302 | 0.418 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 3B | 111 | 391 | 104 | 0.266 | 13 | 64 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.317 | 0.419 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 116 | 425 | 99 | 0.233 | 19 | 68 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.286 | 0.357 | OK |
| Justin Foscue | DH | 62 | 146 | 37 | 0.253 | 7 | 21 | 0.299 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.300 | 0.441 | OK |
| Cody Freeman | 2B | 7 | 17 | 4 | 0.235 | 0 | 0 | 0.278 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.287 | 0.274 | OK |
| Elias Díaz | C | 41 | 125 | 30 | 0.240 | 3 | 15 | 0.256 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.143 | 0.163 | 0.258 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 102 | 290 | 56 | 0.193 | 8 | 31 | 0.299 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.293 | 0.322 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeff McNeil | 1B | 103 | 326 | 83 | 0.255 | 4 | 36 | 0.308 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.306 | 0.320 | OK |
| Jacob Wilson | SS | 78 | 316 | 85 | 0.269 | 7 | 37 | 0.299 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.243 | 0.267 | 0.350 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 108 | 392 | 96 | 0.245 | 19 | 56 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.315 | 0.490 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 66 | 239 | 67 | 0.280 | 13 | 32 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.293 | 0.494 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 106 | 319 | 66 | 0.207 | 9 | 33 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.284 | 0.420 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | DH | 87 | 244 | 63 | 0.258 | 7 | 32 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.305 | 0.382 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 2B | 20 | 40 | 8 | 0.200 | 0 | 4 | 0.396 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.224 | 0.299 | 0.368 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 61 | 212 | 46 | 0.217 | 10 | 31 | 0.263 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.178 | 0.223 | 0.308 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 74 | 252 | 65 | 0.258 | 5 | 22 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.302 | 0.360 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kumar Rocker | Starter | 22 | 107.5 | 4.60 | 1.423 | 8.6 | 103 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 97 | 5.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 42 | 51.2 | 1.41 | 0.703 | 9.8 | 56 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Peyton Gray | Middle Reliever | 41 | 41.7 | 3.67 | 1.367 | 10.8 | 50 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever | 6 | 4.5 | 4.00 | 2.222 | 10.0 | 5 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gage Jump | Starter | 14 | 70.1 | 4.62 | 1.512 | 10.8 | 84 | 4.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 91 | 4.2 | 6 | 0 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 55 | 42.2 | 4.48 | 1.943 | 14.9 | 70 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 36 | 32.2 | 5.59 | 1.429 | 12.9 | 46 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever | 38 | 48.7 | 3.70 | 1.478 | 11.6 | 63 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
OAK wins 4-0
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.3834; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| CJ Abrams | SS | 119 | 451 | 128 | 0.284 | 29 | 91 | 0.357 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.306 | 0.451 | OK |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 1B | 11 | 30 | 10 | 0.333 | 4 | 8 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.342 | 0.365 | 0.713 | OK |
| Brady House | DH | 59 | 216 | 51 | 0.236 | 8 | 27 | 0.288 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.295 | 0.391 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | RF | 121 | 462 | 115 | 0.249 | 15 | 65 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.298 | 0.420 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 77 | 255 | 70 | 0.275 | 7 | 39 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.332 | 0.410 | OK |
| Jose F Miranda | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.317 | 0.409 | |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 107 | 348 | 80 | 0.230 | 1 | 34 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.193 | 0.281 | 0.239 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 3B | 83 | 218 | 53 | 0.243 | 3 | 19 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.344 | 0.312 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 97 | 327 | 81 | 0.248 | 10 | 41 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.294 | 0.339 | 0.491 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| A.J. Ewing | LF | 80 | 290 | 76 | 0.262 | 7 | 28 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.292 | 0.333 | OK |
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 64 | 251 | 60 | 0.239 | 11 | 30 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.316 | 0.439 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 118 | 474 | 124 | 0.262 | 12 | 61 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.306 | 0.414 | OK |
| Luis Robert Jr. | CF | 42 | 149 | 32 | 0.215 | 6 | 17 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.302 | 0.420 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 113 | 433 | 118 | 0.273 | 13 | 47 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.346 | 0.431 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | DH | 81 | 267 | 65 | 0.243 | 12 | 28 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.324 | 0.412 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 101 | 358 | 77 | 0.215 | 14 | 41 | 0.275 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.131 | 0.200 | 0.253 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 67 | 204 | 53 | 0.260 | 6 | 22 | 0.333 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.344 | 0.441 | OK |
| Luis Torrens | C | 65 | 195 | 46 | 0.236 | 5 | 28 | 0.300 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.312 | 0.503 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Alvarez | Starter | 17 | 66.3 | 3.94 | 1.463 | 8.8 | 65 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 89 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 38 | 33.5 | 3.49 | 1.254 | 10.2 | 38 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Middle Reliever | 38 | 32.5 | 3.88 | 1.323 | 8.9 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Yovanny Cruz | Middle Reliever | 4 | 2.2 | 12.27 | 4.091 | 12.3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robert Stock | Starter | 2 | 8.0 | 10.12 | 2.125 | 9.0 | 8 | 3.2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 75 | 3.2 | 3 | 1 |
| Kodai Senga | Middle Reliever | 16 | 45.1 | 8.58 | 1.796 | 11.4 | 57 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Daniel Duarte | Middle Reliever | 12 | 15.7 | 1.15 | 0.828 | 7.5 | 13 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever | 3 | 3.1 | 0.00 | 0.968 | 14.5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dedniel Núñez | Middle Reliever | 3 | 2.1 | 21.43 | 4.286 | 12.9 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jefry Yan | Middle Reliever | 4 | 2.4 | 3.75 | 3.750 | 11.2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
WAS wins 5-1