MLB Predictions — August 10, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ MIN	5 - 4	5 - 4	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 5-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ TOR	4 - 2	5 - 2	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 5-2	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ ARI	3 - 4	3 - 4	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 4-3	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ SF	5 - 1	5 - 1	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 5-1	61%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ LAD	5 - 6	5 - 6	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 6-5	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ SD	4 - 3	4 - 3	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 4-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ ATL	3 - 4	3 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ STL	2 - 3	2 - 4	STL	STL	STL wins 4-2	62%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ OAK	6 - 2	6 - 2	TB	TB	TB wins 6-2	66%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ LAA	5 - 6	5 - 6	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 6-5	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

BAL 57-61 (4.47 RPG / 4.75 RA)

5 - 4

MIN 58-61 (4.65 RPG / 4.94 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 5-4 TARGET: BAL 5 - 4 MIN (BAL) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	5	6
MIN	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	9

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

BAL Season Quality

Record57-61

Win%0.483

Run Diff-33

RD/Game-0.280

MIN Season Quality

Record58-61

Win%0.487

Run Diff-35

RD/Game-0.294

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0248; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Gunnar Henderson	SS	114	462	98	0.212	17	46	0.293	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.182	0.276	0.302	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	115	430	109	0.253	25	75	0.347	4	3	1	1	4	0	2	0.333	0.273	0.357	0.611	OK
Jackson Holliday	2B	62	178	43	0.242	6	21	0.337	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.253	0.342	0.416	OK
Tyler O'Neill	DH	71	189	42	0.222	10	21	0.316	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.333	0.475	OK
Dylan Beavers	LF	60	188	46	0.245	2	18	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.242	0.313	0.330	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	96	310	69	0.223	6	42	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.230	0.299	0.377	OK
Coby Mayo	3B	86	269	58	0.216	15	42	0.279	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.259	0.305	0.499	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	92	234	50	0.214	8	27	0.311	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.253	0.340	0.410	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	5	15	2	0.133	0	0	0.235	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.165	0.228	0.240	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	6	5	5	4	9	0.188

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Austin Martin	LF	91	272	63	0.232	2	22	0.333	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.215	0.302	0.292	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	55	194	54	0.278	10	37	0.379	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.156	0.272	0.297	OK
Royce Lewis	2B	84	306	72	0.235	13	41	0.309	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.251	0.309	0.454	OK
Josh Bell	DH	114	419	105	0.251	15	68	0.313	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.259	0.322	0.436	OK
Luke Keaschall	RF	109	370	97	0.262	6	34	0.351	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.265	0.338	0.371	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	110	417	100	0.240	17	60	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.221	0.266	0.401	OK
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	2	5	1	0.200	1	1	0.500	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.154	0.277	0.442	OK
Victor Caratini	1B	86	272	62	0.228	7	37	0.314	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.219	0.306	0.315	OK
Ryan Kreidler	CF	67	191	45	0.236	5	25	0.281	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.230	0.274	0.363	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	4	4	3	5	0.250

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trevor Rogers	Starter	21	112.4	4.32	1.272	7.8	98	6.0	6	1	1	1	3	98	6.0	3	1
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	50	32.9	2.19	0.973	9.8	36	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	40	30.6	4.12	1.536	8.5	29	0.2	3	3	3	2	1	17	0.2	1	3
Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	54	43.6	3.30	0.986	10.7	52	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dean Kremer	Starter	1	5.0	1.80	1.000	3.6	2	4.1	4	3	3	2	3	96	4.1	3	3
Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	3	3.0	3.00	1.333	15.0	5	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18	1.0	2	0
Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	40	30.8	2.05	1.331	10.8	37	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19	1.0	2	2
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	45	48.1	3.56	1.455	9.7	52	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever	5	3.3	2.73	1.515	5.5	2	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.2	1	0

Game Summary

BAL wins 5-4

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

BOS 64-54 (4.44 RPG / 3.74 RA)

5 - 2

TOR 57-63 (3.92 RPG / 4.41 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 5-2 TARGET: BOS 4 - 2 TOR (BOS) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5	8
TOR	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs7.4

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff35

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

BOS Season Quality

Record64-53

Win%0.547

Run Diff84

RD/Game0.718

TOR Season Quality

Record56-63

Win%0.471

Run Diff-59

RD/Game-0.496

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1252; margin adjustment: -0.4726; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nick Sogard	SS	21	75	19	0.253	0	3	0.364	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.253	0.358	0.353	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	109	434	123	0.283	14	58	0.324	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.259	0.282	0.441	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	112	427	110	0.258	20	63	0.332	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.260	0.348	0.560	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	104	364	103	0.283	23	70	0.392	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.209	0.302	0.391	OK
Masataka Yoshida	DH	76	234	62	0.265	4	25	0.331	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.318	0.369	0.459	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	105	358	87	0.243	11	51	0.313	4	4	2	1	4	0	1	0.500	0.229	0.296	0.379	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	108	417	83	0.199	16	54	0.258	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.206	0.261	0.380	OK
Anthony Seigler	2B	39	128	31	0.242	3	12	0.312	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.255	0.323	0.421	OK
Connor Wong	C	53	152	38	0.250	3	19	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.204	0.270	0.363	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	5	5	3	6	0.229

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nathan Lukes	RF	82	274	74	0.270	6	21	0.323	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0.250	0.208	0.249	0.326	OK
Brett Bateman	CF	3	14	3	0.214	0	1	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.198	0.264	0.285	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	109	410	107	0.261	7	46	0.335	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.225	0.294	0.344	OK
George Springer	DH	86	333	78	0.234	12	36	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.176	0.263	0.296	OK
Jesús Sánchez	LF	81	233	63	0.270	8	32	0.318	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.255	0.309	0.435	OK
Charles McAdoo	3B	8	25	4	0.160	1	3	0.160	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.160	0.170	0.272	OK
Josh Smith	2B	6	14	3	0.214	1	1	0.312	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.182	0.270	0.295	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	62	191	44	0.230	8	21	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.286	0.333	OK
Myles Straw	RF	86	202	44	0.218	3	17	0.263	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.200	0.246	0.311	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	2	2	4	3	0.182

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sonny Gray	Starter	21	118.5	2.81	1.165	8.1	106	6.0	5	2	2	3	3	103	6.0	3	2
Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	40	39.2	1.38	1.148	11.5	50	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7	1.0	0	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	45	43.3	2.08	0.901	10.2	49	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	5	1.0	0	0
Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	35	24.5	5.88	1.714	14.0	38	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.2	0	0
Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	3	3.1	0.00	1.290	17.4	6	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.1	0	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jameson Taillon	Starter	1	4.0	6.75	2.000	9.0	4	4.1	6	4	4	2	4	89	4.1	4	4
Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	54	56.7	1.43	1.076	11.9	75	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	55	49.5	1.82	1.253	4.9	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever	34	68.7	3.54	1.223	9.4	72	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	32	1.1	0	0
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	60	35.8	4.53	1.620	13.8	55	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-2

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

COL 46-72 (4.81 RPG / 5.75 RA)

3 - 4

ARI 63-56 (4.51 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 4-3 TARGET: COL 3 - 4 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 56.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	6
ARI	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	x	4	6

COL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff1

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

COL Season Quality

Record46-72

Win%0.390

Run Diff-110

RD/Game-0.932

ARI Season Quality

Record63-56

Win%0.529

Run Diff5

RD/Game0.042

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8435; margin adjustment: 0.3543; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	CF	97	369	113	0.306	13	66	0.339	5	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.329	0.353	0.556	OK
Cole Carrigg	SS	48	165	49	0.297	5	30	0.385	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.288	0.379	0.477	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	112	407	121	0.297	13	58	0.373	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.269	0.329	0.377	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	108	405	103	0.254	34	69	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.235	0.284	0.506	OK
Mickey Moniak	LF	78	272	75	0.276	19	52	0.311	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.243	0.273	0.495	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	106	329	89	0.271	9	42	0.369	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.254	0.336	0.370	OK
Willi Castro	2B	99	357	94	0.263	13	48	0.332	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.251	0.303	0.462	OK
Troy Johnston	DH	97	315	88	0.279	3	42	0.339	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.253	0.302	0.353	OK
Jordan Beck	RF	33	95	19	0.200	1	10	0.238	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.213	0.250	0.365	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	32	6	3	3	4	8	0.188

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	115	412	101	0.245	9	42	0.359	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.299	0.392	0.443	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	115	433	104	0.240	16	54	0.335	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.211	0.290	0.427	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	90	318	96	0.302	8	51	0.382	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.304	0.372	0.445	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	112	454	111	0.244	20	64	0.305	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.223	0.288	0.444	OK
Lars Nootbaar	DH	5	17	3	0.176	0	1	0.333	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.230	0.337	0.341	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	112	384	92	0.240	17	54	0.320	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.204	0.274	0.403	OK
Max Kepler	LF	30	94	20	0.213	2	15	0.283	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.189	0.272	0.300	OK
Tim Tawa	1B	55	166	39	0.235	6	26	0.286	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.315	0.422	OK
Ryan Waldschmidt	CF	52	173	49	0.283	2	15	0.330	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.281	0.320	0.439	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	29	6	4	4	3	6	0.207

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gabriel Hughes	Starter	6	29.2	4.32	1.199	8.6	28	5.1	3	2	2	2	4	89	5.1	4	2
Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	10	9.2	3.91	1.739	12.7	13	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.2	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	47	44.0	6.14	1.818	10.0	49	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	22	1.0	1	2

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Soroka	Starter	15	80.6	3.13	1.104	8.8	79	5.2	2	1	1	4	5	104	5.2	5	1
Brandyn Garcia	Middle Reliever	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	50	42.9	3.36	1.235	9.0	43	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	22	1.0	1	2
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	15	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 4-3

Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

HOU 60-59 (4.62 RPG / 4.86 RA)

5 - 1

SF 50-69 (4.13 RPG / 4.62 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 5-1 TARGET: HOU 5 - 1 SF (HOU) Confidence: 61.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	5	9
SF	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	6

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff16

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff-16

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

HOU Season Quality

Record60-58

Win%0.508

Run Diff-23

RD/Game-0.195

SF Season Quality

Record50-69

Win%0.420

Run Diff-58

RD/Game-0.487

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5492; margin adjustment: -0.2307; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	70	279	83	0.297	13	37	0.357	5	5	1	1	0	0	4	0.200	0.206	0.261	0.349	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	116	422	137	0.325	35	86	0.439	5	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.288	0.394	0.501	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	111	406	100	0.246	15	60	0.342	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.227	0.294	0.361	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	94	367	89	0.243	13	34	0.306	5	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.302	0.376	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	57	160	38	0.238	7	20	0.315	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.239	0.305	0.440	OK
Christian Walker	1B	114	421	102	0.242	22	67	0.322	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.229	0.305	0.403	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	6	21	3	0.143	1	2	0.280	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.222	0.291	0.364	OK
Cam Smith	RF	108	381	84	0.220	15	41	0.292	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.258	0.315	0.457	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	67	199	43	0.216	5	23	0.266	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.214	0.264	0.317	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	9	5	5	3	9	0.257

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	106	402	121	0.301	7	43	0.338	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.236	0.268	0.396	OK
Willy Adames	SS	112	430	96	0.223	18	47	0.281	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.208	0.266	0.365	OK
Bryce Eldridge	DH	75	263	65	0.247	11	28	0.343	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.230	0.314	0.369	OK
Rafael Devers	1B	117	439	110	0.251	23	63	0.323	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.256	0.326	0.465	OK
Osleivis Basabe	2B	10	31	8	0.258	3	8	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.248	0.256	0.527	OK
Drew Gilbert	CF	86	238	58	0.244	4	22	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.249	0.312	0.365	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	24	58	14	0.241	0	4	0.353	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.157	0.266	0.204	OK
Grant McCray	LF	14	33	3	0.091	1	2	0.231	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.110	0.242	0.204	OK
Christian Koss	3B	22	58	9	0.155	0	1	0.183	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.158	0.187	0.192	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	1	1	3	7	0.182

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hayden Wesneski	Starter	2	11.2	4.02	1.339	6.4	8	5.0	6	1	1	2	4	89	5.0	4	1
Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	26	24.3	0.74	0.700	13.3	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	57	49.4	2.55	1.012	10.7	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	44	37.8	4.76	1.508	13.1	55	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18	1.0	1	0
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	51	48.8	4.61	1.270	9.8	53	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10	1.0	1	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Blade Tidwell	Starter	9	17.0	3.18	1.176	6.9	13	5.0	6	4	4	3	6	97	5.0	6	4
Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	25	19.3	3.26	1.451	12.6	27	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.0	2	1
Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	41	33.7	3.47	1.395	8.8	33	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	35	50.8	3.54	1.280	6.6	37	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	28	1.1	1	0
Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	32	21.3	3.38	2.019	12.7	30	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

HOU wins 5-1

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

KC 49-70 (4.13 RPG / 5.06 RA)

5 - 6

LAD 70-48 (5.01 RPG / 3.84 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 6-5 TARGET: KC 5 - 6 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	8
LAD	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	x	6	11

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-17

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-18

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

KC Season Quality

Record49-70

Win%0.412

Run Diff-110

RD/Game-0.924

LAD Season Quality

Record70-48

Win%0.593

Run Diff138

RD/Game1.169

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4973; margin adjustment: 0.6289; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nick Loftin	3B	79	243	59	0.243	5	35	0.321	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.196	0.264	0.312	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	99	388	110	0.284	13	41	0.353	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.253	0.326	0.389	OK
Jac Caglianone	1B	109	391	102	0.261	20	49	0.313	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.277	0.314	0.520	OK
Salvador Perez	C	109	422	92	0.218	16	49	0.265	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.216	0.248	0.363	OK
Carter Jensen	DH	108	386	88	0.228	16	55	0.303	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.204	0.292	0.392	OK
Starling Marte	RF	53	144	36	0.250	2	14	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.260	0.347	OK
Michael Massey	2B	95	301	79	0.262	9	39	0.295	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.232	0.263	0.395	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	103	331	79	0.239	6	35	0.339	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.214	0.304	0.344	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	60	178	41	0.230	3	13	0.284	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.182	0.232	0.254	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	5	5	4	7	0.229

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	107	410	119	0.290	26	69	0.395	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.300	0.397	0.565	OK
Andy Pages	CF	115	448	122	0.272	19	75	0.337	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.297	0.348	0.466	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	114	431	131	0.304	15	53	0.379	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.279	0.347	0.405	OK
Tommy Edman	LF	38	136	37	0.272	3	20	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.259	0.302	0.390	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	79	312	72	0.231	13	36	0.283	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.281	0.334	OK
Miguel Rojas	2B	67	161	46	0.286	3	18	0.309	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.171	0.203	0.274	OK
Teoscar Hernández	RF	81	289	72	0.249	11	40	0.312	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.244	0.300	0.399	OK
Max Muncy	3B	106	351	86	0.245	22	52	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.119	0.221	0.295	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	3	8	2	0.250	0	0	0.333	4	4	3	1	3	0	1	0.750	0.160	0.226	0.263	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	11	6	6	2	7	0.314

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Noah Cameron	Starter	22	121.8	4.43	1.305	8.6	116	6.0	10	6	6	2	5	114	6.0	5	6
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	44	41.7	6.69	1.679	10.4	48	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0
Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	41	38.8	4.64	1.340	11.4	49	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	47	36.6	4.18	1.612	8.1	33	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12	1.0	1	0
Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	6	5.2	0.00	0.962	6.9	4	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	44	40.2	5.82	1.766	6.9	31	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0	0	0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tarik Skubal	Starter	1	6.0	3.00	1.000	9.0	6	6.1	6	2	2	4	7	114	6.1	7	2
Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	11	9.3	8.71	2.258	14.5	15	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	18	1.0	0	1
Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	50	42.7	2.53	1.007	12.6	60	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	13	8.8	5.11	1.364	11.2	11	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	11	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-5

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MIL 74-44 (4.96 RPG / 3.76 RA)

4 - 3

SD 62-57 (4.24 RPG / 4.32 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 4-3 TARGET: MIL 4 - 3 SD (MIL) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
MIL	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	4	9
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	4

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

MIL Season Quality

Record74-44

Win%0.627

Run Diff141

RD/Game1.195

SD Season Quality

Record61-57

Win%0.517

Run Diff-15

RD/Game-0.127

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9429; margin adjustment: -0.396; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brice Turang	2B	109	426	119	0.279	16	74	0.368	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.283	0.366	0.443	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	82	340	95	0.279	17	47	0.344	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.329	0.544	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	101	345	93	0.270	20	65	0.373	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.279	0.386	0.520	OK
Andrew Vaughn	3B	68	198	60	0.303	5	34	0.383	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.302	0.379	0.471	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	100	330	82	0.248	7	43	0.343	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.180	0.286	0.332	OK
William Contreras	C	107	415	109	0.263	11	58	0.327	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.233	0.291	0.364	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	77	299	67	0.224	7	36	0.312	4	3	3	1	1	1	0	1.000	0.167	0.246	0.263	OK
Luis Lara	RF	20	62	14	0.226	0	11	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.323	0.326	OK
David Hamilton	SS	80	238	56	0.235	3	16	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.313	0.338	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	39	9	4	4	2	8	0.231

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	116	460	130	0.283	11	53	0.353	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.268	0.326	0.503	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	66	222	48	0.216	3	17	0.307	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.197	0.265	0.259	OK
Manny Machado	3B	116	429	91	0.212	23	70	0.297	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.188	0.277	0.312	OK
Ty France	1B	87	293	84	0.287	16	50	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.263	0.309	0.445	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	115	451	110	0.244	18	59	0.293	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.273	0.312	0.539	OK
Luis Rengifo	LF	22	74	24	0.324	2	8	0.419	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.248	0.319	0.307	OK
Gavin Sheets	DH	109	327	70	0.214	15	44	0.315	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.207	0.309	0.390	OK
Freddy Fermin	C	58	175	34	0.194	4	16	0.270	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.312	0.387	OK
Sung-Mun Song	SS	42	108	23	0.213	1	15	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.203	0.286	0.269	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	4	3	3	1	9	0.118

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Henderson	Starter	10	49.3	2.74	0.913	11.3	62	5.2	0	0	0	1	6	76	5.2	6	0
Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	46	45.1	1.80	0.820	10.6	53	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	49	44.6	2.22	1.121	9.7	48	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	55	59.6	3.93	1.560	14.2	94	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	12	1.0	0	2
JoJo Romero	Reliever	0	0	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	16	0.2	1	1

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Casey Mize	Starter	1	3.1	23.23	3.871	2.9	1	5.0	7	2	2	2	5	98	5.0	5	2
Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	47	46.3	0.97	0.864	17.7	91	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	54	54.4	3.31	1.213	12.4	75	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	28	22.6	3.98	1.327	13.1	33	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever	33	38.7	2.79	1.370	10.9	47	1.1	1	2	2	0	2	23	1.1	2	2

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

NYM 52-67 (4.19 RPG / 4.55 RA)

3 - 4

ATL 71-48 (4.86 RPG / 3.89 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 4-3 TARGET: NYM 3 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	5
ATL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	9

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff24

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

NYM Season Quality

Record52-67

Win%0.437

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.361

ATL Season Quality

Record71-48

Win%0.597

Run Diff115

RD/Game0.966

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1559; margin adjustment: 0.4855; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
A.J. Ewing	CF	77	278	74	0.266	7	28	0.339	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0.400	0.245	0.318	0.372	OK
Francisco Lindor	SS	61	239	56	0.234	10	29	0.322	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.230	0.307	0.404	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	115	464	122	0.263	11	59	0.305	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.290	0.327	0.396	OK
Carson Benge	RF	110	422	114	0.270	13	47	0.331	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.277	0.327	0.439	OK
Jared Young	1B	65	196	50	0.255	6	20	0.333	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.287	0.347	0.444	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	98	348	76	0.218	14	41	0.279	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.205	0.269	0.370	OK
Brett Baty	LF	100	331	72	0.218	7	34	0.279	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.193	0.246	0.303	OK
Jorge Polanco	DH	32	118	16	0.136	2	5	0.190	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0.000	0.126	0.177	0.254	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	78	257	63	0.245	12	28	0.334	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.215	0.304	0.407	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	31	5	3	3	5	5	0.161

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	DH	95	367	100	0.272	20	59	0.360	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.270	0.340	0.426	OK
Matt Olson	1B	118	456	121	0.265	34	72	0.341	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.259	0.331	0.658	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	112	427	125	0.293	20	67	0.319	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.280	0.300	0.450	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	118	453	118	0.260	19	63	0.312	4	3	1	1	3	1	1	0.333	0.237	0.293	0.385	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	112	418	113	0.270	10	58	0.318	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.287	0.326	0.400	OK
Austin Riley	3B	117	419	92	0.220	14	57	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.222	0.280	0.400	OK
Jim Jarvis	SS	31	94	22	0.234	1	11	0.280	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.221	0.260	0.314	OK
Sean Murphy	C	6	22	2	0.091	0	0	0.091	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.113	0.123	0.155	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	97	261	60	0.230	8	32	0.310	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.236	0.306	0.419	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	9	4	4	2	5	0.265

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Christian Scott	Starter	16	70.6	3.31	1.331	11.7	92	5.2	5	2	2	1	5	90	5.2	5	2
Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	41	36.1	4.49	1.662	12.7	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Kodai Senga	Middle Reliever	15	44.1	8.78	1.814	11.2	55	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	12	0.1	0	1
Daniel Duarte	Middle Reliever	11	13.7	1.31	0.876	8.5	13	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	21	1.0	0	1

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryce Elder	Starter	22	124.1	3.77	1.225	7.5	104	5.2	4	3	3	3	3	95	5.2	3	3
Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	42	40.8	3.09	1.225	10.6	48	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	55	46.8	2.31	0.855	12.7	66	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	41	45.3	2.78	1.214	12.9	65	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	10	1.1	0	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	47	35.4	4.58	1.441	10.2	40	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	13	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

PHI 63-56 (4.44 RPG / 4.44 RA)

2 - 4

STL 59-59 (4.36 RPG / 4.43 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 4-2 TARGET: PHI 2 - 3 STL (STL) Confidence: 62.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	6
STL	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	x	4	6

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.5

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff15

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

PHI Season Quality

Record63-56

Win%0.529

Run Diff0

RD/Game0.000

STL Season Quality

Record59-59

Win%0.500

Run Diff-8

RD/Game-0.068

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1735; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	1B	111	415	102	0.246	34	67	0.364	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.247	0.370	0.527	OK
Bryson Stott	3B	112	387	102	0.264	8	52	0.337	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.287	0.385	0.442	OK
Bryce Harper	DH	117	415	106	0.255	25	71	0.369	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.260	0.395	0.510	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	6	27	7	0.259	1	5	0.276	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.267	0.298	0.380	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	112	415	114	0.275	16	52	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.277	0.345	OK
Derek Hill	RF	27	75	20	0.267	5	14	0.295	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.223	0.257	0.418	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	104	315	82	0.260	2	29	0.311	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.258	0.317	0.360	OK
Edmundo Sosa	SS	61	176	37	0.210	5	25	0.245	4	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.203	0.230	0.312	OK
Garrett Stubbs	C	14	38	5	0.132	0	2	0.190	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.079	0.106	0.110	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	2	2	2	7	0.182

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	109	426	106	0.249	16	44	0.352	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.346	0.379	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	115	433	106	0.245	12	48	0.355	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.307	0.359	0.437	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	114	438	124	0.283	19	77	0.348	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.248	0.319	0.561	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	112	436	125	0.287	21	78	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.291	0.331	0.449	OK
Nathan Church	CF	91	299	72	0.241	9	36	0.286	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.261	0.302	0.369	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	107	389	94	0.242	4	47	0.315	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.247	0.318	0.328	OK
José Fermín	LF	77	214	52	0.243	5	26	0.308	4	4	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.223	0.297	0.347	OK
Jimmy Crooks	C	37	101	19	0.188	4	12	0.245	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.191	0.237	0.336	OK
César Prieto	3B	9	23	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.068	0.081	0.099
TEAM TOTALS									34	30	6	4	4	4	5	0.200

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Painter	Starter	16	72.9	6.67	1.619	7.8	63	4.1	6	4	4	3	3	85	4.1	3	4
Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	43	40.4	1.34	0.941	13.1	59	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	50	41.2	4.37	1.481	11.1	51	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	19	0.2	1	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	44	37.7	3.10	1.061	12.4	52	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hunter Dobbins	Starter	8	38.6	3.73	1.347	8.4	36	5.1	4	1	1	2	4	87	5.1	4	1
Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	48	45.8	3.34	1.201	9.4	48	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18	1.0	1	0
George Soriano	Middle Reliever	53	44.9	4.21	1.381	10.2	51	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	50	38.1	5.20	1.732	11.6	49	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.2	1	0

Game Summary

STL wins 4-2

Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics

TB 71-46 (4.44 RPG / 4.04 RA)

6 - 2

OAK 47-71 (4.32 RPG / 5.71 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 6-2 TARGET: TB 6 - 2 OAK (TB) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	6	11
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	6

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak6W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed7.0

Run Diff-36

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

TB Season Quality

Record71-46

Win%0.607

Run Diff46

RD/Game0.393

OAK Season Quality

Record47-71

Win%0.398

Run Diff-164

RD/Game-1.390

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.7501; margin adjustment: -2.8002; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	111	435	131	0.301	15	65	0.373	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.338	0.382	0.454	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	113	424	122	0.288	15	72	0.373	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.282	0.348	0.409	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	116	439	122	0.278	33	71	0.371	5	4	2	1	5	1	0	0.500	0.226	0.321	0.491	OK
Ryan Vilade	RF	61	168	42	0.250	9	34	0.308	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.157	0.216	0.331	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	65	213	56	0.263	8	34	0.296	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.269	0.300	0.459	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	106	408	124	0.304	0	23	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.382	0.404	0.441	OK
Nick Fortes	C	81	243	67	0.276	4	28	0.314	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.281	0.306	0.429	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	88	276	58	0.210	0	23	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.186	0.284	0.248	OK
Carson Williams	2B	11	33	3	0.091	0	3	0.143	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.117	0.171	0.167	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	11	6	6	3	7	0.289

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeff McNeil	1B	101	319	80	0.251	4	35	0.307	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.247	0.300	0.314	OK
Tyler Soderstrom	DH	106	383	94	0.245	19	55	0.339	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.236	0.326	0.482	OK
Jacob Wilson	SS	76	308	83	0.269	7	36	0.300	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.244	0.319	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	84	233	61	0.262	7	28	0.335	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.298	0.349	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	103	307	62	0.202	7	30	0.291	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.177	0.254	0.303	OK
Jonah Heim	C	59	204	46	0.225	10	31	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.213	0.259	0.347	OK
Henry Bolte	CF	71	242	62	0.256	5	22	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.240	0.287	0.355	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	17	32	6	0.188	0	4	0.381	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.146	0.229	0.278	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	63	227	62	0.273	11	29	0.327	3	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.197	0.240	0.352	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	2	2	2	7	0.182

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Freddy Peralta	Starter	1	3.2	19.69	3.125	8.4	3	4.1	6	2	2	0	4	92	4.1	4	2
Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	48	45.4	1.59	0.859	10.1	51	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	50	46.3	2.33	0.972	8.4	43	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	6	1.2	2	0
Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	42	31.0	3.77	1.419	13.9	48	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	19	1.2	0	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob Lopez	Starter	18	72.2	5.86	1.690	8.7	70	4.0	7	4	4	0	6	80	4.0	6	4
Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	55	42.2	4.48	1.943	14.9	70	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	24	1.1	0	0
Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	35	31.2	5.19	1.410	13.0	45	1.1	0	0	0	2	0	25	1.1	0	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	38	48.7	3.70	1.478	11.6	63	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
José Suarez	Middle Reliever	32	33.7	4.54	1.365	9.3	35	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	22	1.0	0	2

Game Summary

TB wins 6-2

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

TEX 59-59 (4.14 RPG / 4.42 RA)

5 - 6

LAA 45-73 (4.1 RPG / 4.87 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 6-5 TARGET: TEX 5 - 6 LAA (LAA) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	5	8
LAA	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	x	6	10

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.4

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-23

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

TEX Season Quality

Record59-59

Win%0.500

Run Diff-33

RD/Game-0.280

LAA Season Quality

Record45-73

Win%0.381

Run Diff-91

RD/Game-0.771

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5318; margin adjustment: -0.2234; applied: True

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Wyatt Langford	CF	66	261	68	0.261	13	31	0.318	5	5	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.245	0.307	0.446	OK
Corey Seager	SS	58	215	42	0.195	11	28	0.300	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.222	0.314	0.413	OK
Ezequiel Duran	LF	107	375	102	0.272	13	64	0.327	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.271	0.332	0.444	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	112	427	117	0.274	13	46	0.340	5	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.283	0.337	0.568	OK
Jake Burger	1B	113	412	98	0.238	19	66	0.299	5	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.220	0.289	0.353	OK
Justin Foscue	DH	58	137	35	0.255	7	21	0.299	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.245	0.282	0.454	OK
Elias Díaz	C	37	114	27	0.237	3	14	0.254	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.197	0.220	0.353	OK
Jonah Bride	3B	1	4	1	0.250	0	0	0.250	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.252	0.330	OK
Cameron Cauley	2B	24	55	12	0.218	1	1	0.295	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.218	0.280	0.353	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	35	8	5	5	5	6	0.229

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	115	457	103	0.225	20	51	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.191	0.249	0.349	OK
Mike Trout	CF	99	357	84	0.235	19	41	0.380	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.199	0.320	0.369	OK
Nolan Schanuel	1B	97	361	99	0.274	7	41	0.350	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.235	0.319	0.351	OK
Vaughn Grissom	3B	73	261	65	0.249	7	45	0.309	4	4	3	1	1	0	1	0.750	0.228	0.274	0.352	OK
Jose Siri	LF	51	121	33	0.273	7	20	0.321	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.274	0.320	0.532	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	DH	6	22	4	0.182	0	0	0.217	4	4	2	1	3	0	2	0.500	0.212	0.276	0.329	OK
Oswald Peraza	2B	87	284	66	0.232	7	24	0.275	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.112	0.143	0.209	OK
Travis d'Arnaud	C	17	44	9	0.205	1	3	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.224	0.270	0.355	OK
Wade Meckler	RF	55	171	52	0.304	3	20	0.364	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.298	0.353	0.410	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	10	6	6	2	10	0.294

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	24	126.1	4.64	1.269	10.0	140	5.1	7	3	3	1	7	104	5.1	7	3
Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	41	50.2	1.43	0.697	9.9	55	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	40	2.0	2	0
Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	38	39.5	3.87	1.418	10.7	47	0.2	3	3	3	0	1	17	0.2	1	3

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Reid Detmers	Starter	23	125.5	4.23	1.131	10.8	150	6.0	7	3	3	1	6	101	6.0	6	3
Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	2	2.0	0.00	1.000	9.0	2	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	16	0.2	0	0
Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	20	21.5	2.51	0.977	15.9	38	1.1	0	1	1	3	0	28	1.1	0	1
José Fermin	Middle Reliever	35	33.2	3.80	1.476	12.2	45	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

LAA wins 6-5

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

BAL Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

BOS Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

COL Recent Form

ARI Recent Form

COL Season Quality

ARI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

HOU Recent Form

SF Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

SF Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Dodgers

KC Recent Form

LAD Recent Form

KC Season Quality

LAD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MIL Recent Form

SD Recent Form

MIL Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

NYM Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

NYM Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals