MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 9, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ NYY3 - 43 - 4NYYNYYNYY wins 4-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ TEX3 - 53 - 5TEXTEXTEX wins 5-357%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ KC4 - 24 - 2CHCCHCCHC wins 4-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ WAS2 - 42 - 4WASWASWAS wins 4-257%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ CHW2 - 32 - 3CHWCHWCHW wins 3-256%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ STL4 - 64 - 6STLSTLSTL wins 6-466%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ SF5 - 35 - 3DETDETDET wins 5-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ SD4 - 34 - 3HOUHOUHOU wins 4-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ MIA1 - 61 - 6MIAMIAMIA wins 6-156%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ ARI7 - 17 - 1LADLADLAD wins 7-153%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ MIL2 - 42 - 4MILMILMIL wins 4-256%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ PIT3 - 43 - 4PITPITPIT wins 4-360%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ BOS1 - 31 - 3BOSBOSBOS wins 3-151%fallback_enhanced
TB @ SEA4 - 34 - 3TBTBTB wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ PHI2 - 42 - 4PHIPHIPHI wins 4-253%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees

ATL 71-48 (4.86 RPG / 3.89 RA)
3 - 4
NYY 66-52 (4.5 RPG / 3.81 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 4-3 TARGET: ATL 3 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL20000010036
NYY00040000x43

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff24
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff-6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

ATL Season Quality

Record70-48
Win%0.593
Run Diff114
RD/Game0.966

NYY Season Quality

Record66-51
Win%0.564
Run Diff83
RD/Game0.709

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3004; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 94363100 0.275 20590.364 44111 00 0.250 0.251 0.313 0.362 OK
Matt Olson1B 117452120 0.265 33710.342 44000 02 0.000 0.261 0.332 0.584 OK
Michael Harris IICF 111423124 0.293 20660.320 43000 12 0.000 0.274 0.297 0.445 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 117449117 0.261 19630.313 44100 03 0.250 0.231 0.289 0.384 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 112418113 0.270 10580.318 44100 01 0.250 0.279 0.318 0.386 OK
Mike YastrzemskiDH 9625859 0.229 8320.309 44111 01 0.250 0.230 0.304 0.422 OK
Austin Riley3B 11641692 0.221 14570.297 43100 12 0.333 0.230 0.288 0.415 OK
Jim JarvisSS 309122 0.242 1110.289 44111 01 0.250 0.210 0.251 0.306 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 6524360 0.247 12280.358 33000 01 0.000 0.254 0.342 0.479 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 33 213 0.182

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trent GrishamCF 9232668 0.209 11420.302 43010 11 0.000 0.191 0.269 0.344 OK
Ben RiceDH 109407106 0.260 31710.356 43000 11 0.000 0.229 0.335 0.484 OK
Heliot RamosLF 4132 0.154 000.353 43111 10 0.333 0.226 0.275 0.375 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 4154 0.267 120.353 33113 02 0.333 0.253 0.289 0.491 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 10537381 0.217 17470.291 33110 00 0.333 0.192 0.271 0.350 OK
Spencer JonesRF 4111525 0.217 5150.297 33000 00 0.000 0.206 0.282 0.386 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 4135 0.385 220.500 33000 00 0.000 0.328 0.440 0.708 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 8624754 0.219 10280.279 33000 02 0.000 0.154 0.226 0.282 OK
Austin WellsC 8123140 0.173 8170.270 33000 00 0.000 0.201 0.277 0.350 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30273 44 36 0.111

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant HolmesStarter 23107.23.95 1.4187.994 5.02442383 5.0 3 4
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 4139.83.17 1.25610.446 0.21001215 0.2 2 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 5546.82.31 0.85512.766 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever 4044.22.65 1.22212.662 1.10000019 1.1 0 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cam SchlittlerStarter 24136.42.31 0.97511.3171 6.0322110105 6.0 10 2
David BednarMiddle Reliever 4848.42.79 1.11610.858 1.03110022 1.0 0 1
Fernando CruzMiddle Reliever 5536.73.92 1.79815.262 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Brent HeadrickMiddle Reliever 6047.91.88 1.42013.371 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-3


Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

BAL 57-61 (4.47 RPG / 4.75 RA)
3 - 5
TEX 59-59 (4.14 RPG / 4.42 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 5-3 TARGET: BAL 3 - 5 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BAL00000000337
TEX20120000x59

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.7
Avg Allowed5.4
Run Diff-27
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-10
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak4W

BAL Season Quality

Record56-61
Win%0.479
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.325

TEX Season Quality

Record59-58
Win%0.504
Run Diff-28
RD/Game-0.239

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1239; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Gunnar HendersonSS 11345898 0.214 17460.294 53000 21 0.000 0.194 0.295 0.334 OK
Pete Alonso1B 114427106 0.248 23710.341 55111 02 0.200 0.242 0.320 0.411 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 6117341 0.237 6210.335 54000 12 0.000 0.207 0.304 0.305 OK
Tyler O'NeillDH 7018441 0.223 9190.319 43000 00 0.000 0.236 0.325 0.465 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 5918445 0.245 2170.317 44210 01 0.500 0.246 0.311 0.337 OK
Leody TaverasRF 9530567 0.220 6410.297 44000 03 0.000 0.217 0.291 0.368 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 154910 0.204 290.278 44212 01 0.500 0.104 0.172 0.224 OK
Colton CowserCF 9123048 0.209 7250.306 43100 10 0.333 0.195 0.284 0.282 OK
Carlos NarváezC 4111 0.091 000.167 44100 02 0.250 0.143 0.206 0.219 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 33 412 0.206

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Joc PedersonDH 10530977 0.249 21440.334 54211 10 0.500 0.256 0.327 0.515 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 6525867 0.260 13310.315 55212 00 0.400 0.195 0.257 0.369 OK
Corey SeagerSS 5721142 0.199 11280.305 54111 10 0.250 0.235 0.336 0.400 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 111423116 0.274 12430.341 43000 11 0.000 0.281 0.340 0.499 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 106371102 0.275 13630.328 44100 00 0.250 0.287 0.340 0.479 OK
Evan CarterCF 9727754 0.195 8310.304 44111 02 0.250 0.182 0.280 0.277 OK
Jake Burger1B 11241097 0.237 19660.295 43000 10 0.000 0.219 0.272 0.361 OK
Austin WynnsC 8195 0.263 110.300 43210 11 0.667 0.139 0.188 0.227 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 5917449 0.282 1190.323 43000 10 0.000 0.223 0.262 0.280 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39339 55 64 0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cade PovichStarter 524.44.06 1.3937.019 5.065552101 5.0 2 5
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 5032.92.19 0.9739.836 1.01000010 1.0 0 0
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 3929.64.26 1.5888.829 0.20000013 0.2 0 0
Rico GarciaMiddle Reliever 5443.63.30 0.98610.752 0.21000113 0.2 1 0
Grant WolframMiddle Reliever 4224.36.67 1.81114.439 0.21001115 0.2 1 0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kumar RockerStarter 21104.54.22 1.3788.498 5.121111096 5.1 10 1
Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever 4150.21.43 0.6979.955 1.20000024 1.2 0 0
Peyton GrayMiddle Reliever 3839.53.87 1.41810.747 1.01002024 1.0 0 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever 43.35.45 2.4248.23 1.04221229 1.0 2 2

Game Summary

TEX wins 5-3


Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals

CHC 69-50 (5.16 RPG / 4.26 RA)
4 - 2
KC 49-70 (4.13 RPG / 5.06 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-2 TARGET: CHC 4 - 2 KC (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC00100010247
KC00001000126

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff12
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHC Season Quality

Record68-50
Win%0.576
Run Diff99
RD/Game0.839

KC Season Quality

Record49-69
Win%0.415
Run Diff-102
RD/Game-0.864

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.9449; margin adjustment: -0.8169; applied: True

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongDH 116434126 0.290 26700.391 54110 10 0.250 0.316 0.410 0.596 OK
Michael Busch1B 115436107 0.245 13610.356 44100 02 0.250 0.247 0.332 0.371 OK
Alex Bregman3B 114452112 0.248 12510.339 43110 10 0.333 0.239 0.313 0.367 OK
Ian HappLF 11040987 0.213 19490.320 44111 01 0.250 0.200 0.288 0.398 OK
Michael ConfortoRF 7417340 0.231 9230.318 44000 00 0.000 0.229 0.313 0.437 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 114457118 0.258 7540.315 44000 01 0.000 0.266 0.309 0.381 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 11038181 0.213 15560.291 44000 03 0.000 0.214 0.286 0.377 OK
Miguel AmayaC 5216038 0.238 3180.330 43100 10 0.333 0.213 0.277 0.314 OK
Tyrone TaylorCF 382 0.250 000.400 44213 01 0.500 0.258 0.309 0.509 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 38 0.206

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Loftin3B 7823959 0.247 5350.326 44300 00 0.750 0.229 0.302 0.358 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.DH 98385110 0.286 13410.353 43000 11 0.000 0.282 0.350 0.436 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 108387101 0.261 20490.313 44100 02 0.250 0.300 0.331 0.594 OK
Salvador Perez1B 10841891 0.218 16490.265 44000 01 0.000 0.217 0.249 0.371 OK
Starling MarteLF 5214035 0.250 1120.305 44000 00 0.000 0.228 0.265 0.292 OK
Michael Massey2B 9429777 0.259 9390.292 44111 01 0.250 0.211 0.243 0.353 OK
Tyler TolbertSS 328327 0.325 360.367 44000 01 0.000 0.255 0.304 0.394 OK
Luke MaileC 5154 0.267 150.312 33111 01 0.333 0.234 0.282 0.426 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 5917641 0.233 3130.283 33000 02 0.000 0.197 0.237 0.269 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34336 22 19 0.182

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew BoydStarter 1370.13.72 1.2708.163 6.14111696 6.1 6 1
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 5247.02.68 1.29811.158 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever 21.27.50 0.83315.02 1.01000117 1.0 1 0
Trent ThorntonMiddle Reliever 3332.62.76 1.2274.717 0.21110113 0.2 1 1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy DobnakStarter 630.31.19 1.2214.515 5.12113695 5.1 6 1
Alex LangeMiddle Reliever 4441.76.69 1.67910.448 1.01000019 1.0 0 0
Steven CruzMiddle Reliever 4138.84.64 1.34011.449 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
John SchreiberMiddle Reliever 4736.64.18 1.6128.133 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Nate PearsonMiddle Reliever 65.20.00 0.9626.94 0.22220116 0.2 1 2

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-2


Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

CIN 56-61 (4.12 RPG / 4.75 RA)
2 - 4
WAS 59-61 (5.36 RPG / 5.16 RA)
WINNER: WAS wins 4-2 TARGET: CIN 2 - 4 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN20000000026
WAS10001200x45

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

CIN Season Quality

Record56-60
Win%0.483
Run Diff-68
RD/Game-0.586

WAS Season Quality

Record58-61
Win%0.487
Run Diff18
RD/Game0.151

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7444; margin adjustment: 0.3127; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Elly De La CruzSS 96379105 0.277 20540.360 55100 01 0.200 0.252 0.339 0.511 OK
Sal Stewart1B 115436112 0.257 25870.335 43000 10 0.000 0.246 0.318 0.465 OK
JJ BledayLF 8630870 0.227 20470.339 44112 01 0.250 0.198 0.309 0.423 OK
Tyler StephensonC 8627869 0.248 10330.332 43000 11 0.000 0.232 0.314 0.428 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 8430262 0.205 16430.283 44000 03 0.000 0.212 0.294 0.495 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 4102 0.200 000.333 43110 10 0.333 0.212 0.328 0.326 OK
Dane MyersCF 6917346 0.266 3170.357 44100 01 0.250 0.266 0.345 0.350 OK
Matt McLain2B 8729557 0.193 10280.293 43100 11 0.333 0.199 0.288 0.432 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 5216323 0.141 470.195 44100 00 0.250 0.154 0.195 0.281 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 22 48 0.182

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
CJ AbramsSS 115434125 0.288 28890.361 43111 10 0.333 0.272 0.324 0.471 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 7194 0.211 130.250 44111 00 0.250 0.201 0.245 0.382 OK
Jose F MirandaDH 000 0.000 000.000 43000 11 0.000 0.244 0.312 0.422
Daylen LileLF 117446109 0.244 15600.295 43210 11 0.667 0.232 0.271 0.454 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 6524854 0.218 9250.295 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.247 0.328 OK
Jorbit Vivas3B 8021049 0.233 3170.322 43000 11 0.000 0.196 0.305 0.272 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 10433677 0.229 1330.317 43000 11 0.000 0.146 0.256 0.189 OK
Keibert RuizC 7524867 0.270 7380.306 33112 01 0.333 0.275 0.318 0.407 OK
Jacob YoungCF 9431677 0.244 9380.305 33000 01 0.000 0.258 0.316 0.394 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34295 44 57 0.172

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brady SingerStarter 22111.14.78 1.4587.997 5.032234101 5.0 4 2
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 2624.44.43 1.18910.328 1.02221123 1.0 1 2
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 3631.12.60 1.0939.533 1.00001118 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 5848.33.17 1.4709.551 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brad LordStarter 2854.14.16 1.3128.752 5.04221591 5.0 5 2
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 3732.53.60 1.29210.237 1.11000029 1.1 0 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 3731.53.71 1.3029.132 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Yovanny CruzMiddle Reliever 32.14.29 2.85712.93 1.11002228 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

WAS wins 4-2


Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

CLE 58-61 (3.97 RPG / 4.2 RA)
2 - 3
CHW 61-56 (4.76 RPG / 4.44 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 3-2 TARGET: CLE 2 - 3 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE00200000028
CHW01000002x34

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record58-60
Win%0.492
Run Diff-25
RD/Game-0.212

CHW Season Quality

Record60-56
Win%0.517
Run Diff35
RD/Game0.302

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5522; margin adjustment: 0.2319; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 10436896 0.261 2220.356 54200 10 0.500 0.286 0.365 0.376 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 97369104 0.282 12560.354 54000 10 0.000 0.252 0.328 0.367 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 3124 0.333 150.385 54100 11 0.250 0.280 0.346 0.493 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 8431276 0.244 9350.340 54300 10 0.750 0.235 0.324 0.334 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 113396102 0.258 9500.320 54000 12 0.000 0.225 0.281 0.317 OK
Petey HalpinCF 4311425 0.219 270.250 54111 10 0.250 0.174 0.197 0.245 OK
Patrick BaileyC 4613831 0.225 5180.267 43011 00 0.000 0.143 0.195 0.254 OK
Angel Genao3B 4167 0.438 120.471 44000 01 0.000 0.340 0.346 0.554 OK
José Ramírez3B 8431474 0.236 10350.334 43100 11 0.333 0.224 0.324 0.352 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42348 22 75 0.235

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 112416114 0.274 11460.348 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.326 0.406 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 8129169 0.237 26530.370 43110 10 0.333 0.231 0.356 0.531 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 114427100 0.234 24670.339 44100 00 0.250 0.206 0.302 0.402 OK
Randal GrichukDH 6313838 0.275 9220.310 43112 10 0.333 0.184 0.216 0.358 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 11041589 0.214 25650.295 44111 01 0.250 0.199 0.268 0.362 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 492 0.222 000.222 33000 02 0.000 0.148 0.219 0.213 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 4917642 0.239 4240.325 32000 10 0.000 0.238 0.323 0.385 OK
Edgar QueroC 5617434 0.195 2160.245 32000 10 0.000 0.238 0.282 0.288 OK
Luisangel AcuñaLF 6717343 0.249 1120.283 33000 01 0.000 0.253 0.280 0.291 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32284 33 46 0.143

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joey CantilloStarter 24116.13.95 1.49910.0129 4.22114488 4.2 4 1
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 4949.32.56 1.19713.373 2.10000029 2.1 0 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 4431.63.99 1.55110.035 1.02220219 1.0 2 2

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Davis MartinStarter 22119.24.23 1.3428.1107 5.14225499 5.1 4 2
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.11000021 1.1 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 3951.53.32 1.3209.856 1.1000014 1.1 1 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever 4840.63.33 1.4539.844 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever 3427.13.65 1.66112.337 0.01000015 0.0 0 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 000.00 0.0000.00 0.00000016 0.0 0 0
Trevor RichardsReliever 3140.33.80 1.06710.045 0.0100206 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

CHW wins 3-2


Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

COL 46-72 (4.81 RPG / 5.75 RA)
4 - 6
STL 59-59 (4.36 RPG / 4.43 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 6-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 6 STL (STL) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
12345678910RH
COL001201000045
STL0102000012611

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed5.9
Run Diff-8
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-4
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

COL Season Quality

Record45-71
Win%0.388
Run Diff-109
RD/Game-0.940

STL Season Quality

Record58-58
Win%0.500
Run Diff-9
RD/Game-0.078

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0302; margin adjustment: 0.4327; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 96364111 0.305 13660.339 54111 01 0.250 0.299 0.324 0.492 OK
Kyle Karros3B 10532588 0.271 9420.370 54000 13 0.000 0.199 0.290 0.314 OK
Cole CarriggCF 4716248 0.296 5300.379 55000 00 0.000 0.287 0.370 0.478 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 107401101 0.252 33670.319 43000 10 0.000 0.206 0.258 0.428 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 111402121 0.301 13580.377 43211 11 0.667 0.295 0.352 0.411 OK
Willi Castro2B 9835393 0.263 13480.332 44112 01 0.250 0.266 0.320 0.495 OK
Jordan BeckRF 339519 0.200 1100.238 44000 02 0.000 0.214 0.252 0.379 OK
Tyler FreemanDH 7625563 0.247 3230.314 44110 01 0.250 0.235 0.261 0.296 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 10536075 0.208 9370.255 44000 01 0.000 0.230 0.277 0.378 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39355 44 310 0.143

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
JJ Wetherholt2B 108423104 0.246 16420.348 64211 22 0.500 0.238 0.346 0.374 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 111432123 0.285 21770.343 54112 11 0.250 0.289 0.333 0.419 OK
Iván HerreraC 114428102 0.238 12470.351 55211 01 0.400 0.230 0.308 0.372 OK
Alec Burleson1B 113434123 0.283 18760.347 54000 11 0.000 0.261 0.329 0.524 OK
José FerminDH 000 0.000 000.000 55000 02 0.000 0.248 0.316 0.427
Masyn WinnSS 10638592 0.239 4460.314 55111 02 0.200 0.239 0.319 0.319 OK
Blaze Jordan3B 4113735 0.255 1220.274 55111 01 0.200 0.269 0.296 0.395 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 9029570 0.237 9360.283 55200 01 0.400 0.261 0.317 0.385 OK
Everson PereiraLF 120 0.000 000.500 54210 11 0.500 0.223 0.266 0.442
TEAM TOTALS 464111 66 512 0.268

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael LorenzenStarter 24103.77.20 1.9196.980 4.07333587 4.0 5 3
Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever 109.23.91 1.73912.713 1.00000121 1.0 1 0
Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever 4744.06.14 1.81810.049 1.11001224 1.1 2 0
Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever 5538.13.31 1.4708.536 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever 3327.87.77 1.90611.034 1.00000120 1.0 1 0
Zach AgnosMiddle Reliever 2963.16.28 1.5536.042 1.01111119 1.0 1 1
Parker MushinskiReliever 33.10.00 1.2900.00 0.12220118 0.1 1 2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 22118.03.66 1.2206.281 5.14332588 5.1 5 3
Riley O'BrienMiddle Reliever 4744.83.42 1.2289.648 1.11111124 1.1 1 1
George SorianoMiddle Reliever 5243.94.10 1.34410.551 1.10000119 1.1 1 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever 5038.15.20 1.73211.649 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Caleb FergusonMiddle Reliever 22.30.00 0.87011.73 1.00000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

STL wins 6-4 (Extra Innings - 10)


Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants

DET 58-60 (4.57 RPG / 3.83 RA)
5 - 3
SF 50-69 (4.13 RPG / 4.62 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 5-3 TARGET: DET 5 - 3 SF (DET) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
DET01210010059
SF30000000034

DET Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs8.6
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff60
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Season Quality

Record57-60
Win%0.487
Run Diff85
RD/Game0.726

SF Season Quality

Record50-68
Win%0.424
Run Diff-56
RD/Game-0.475

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2962; margin adjustment: -0.5444; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigleSS 112427123 0.288 12450.394 54110 10 0.250 0.289 0.378 0.445 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 6022258 0.261 7290.378 55000 04 0.000 0.225 0.322 0.366 OK
Dillon DinglerDH 107407113 0.278 26800.341 54312 11 0.750 0.291 0.340 0.567 OK
Riley GreeneLF 114414115 0.278 16540.371 54111 10 0.250 0.256 0.342 0.431 OK
Colt Keith3B 10530783 0.270 8300.318 55111 01 0.200 0.259 0.305 0.406 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 11540089 0.222 20580.312 43000 11 0.000 0.279 0.357 0.431 OK
Max ClarkCF 83311 0.333 160.421 43000 11 0.000 0.287 0.342 0.454 OK
Eduardo ValenciaC 133815 0.395 4130.410 44100 02 0.250 0.258 0.266 0.532 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 8827762 0.224 4240.300 44211 00 0.500 0.255 0.330 0.376 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41369 55 510 0.250

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bryce EldridgeDH 7425964 0.247 11280.342 54000 10 0.000 0.224 0.302 0.366 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 105398121 0.304 7430.341 43110 10 0.333 0.266 0.297 0.451 OK
Willy AdamesSS 11142795 0.222 18470.279 42000 21 0.000 0.199 0.257 0.358 OK
Rafael Devers1B 116435108 0.248 23630.322 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.295 0.416 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 9278 0.296 380.310 44211 01 0.500 0.275 0.284 0.580 OK
Drew GilbertCF 8523456 0.239 4210.309 43112 11 0.333 0.219 0.285 0.304 OK
Daniel SusacC 4714335 0.245 3220.291 44000 00 0.000 0.135 0.182 0.282 OK
Grant McCrayLF 13303 0.100 120.250 44000 01 0.000 0.116 0.257 0.219 OK
Christian Koss3B 21548 0.148 010.179 43000 11 0.000 0.130 0.161 0.165 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37314 33 66 0.129

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Troy MeltonStarter 1272.61.61 0.9237.964 6.021146103 6.0 6 1
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 3227.83.56 1.25911.034 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 4641.53.04 1.6397.836 0.20000012 0.2 0 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 4945.63.36 1.4698.141 1.11112028 1.1 0 1

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 20124.33.77 1.1187.3101 6.173337113 6.1 7 3
Dylan SmithMiddle Reliever 2418.33.44 1.53011.824 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Keaton WinnMiddle Reliever 4133.73.47 1.3958.833 1.01111020 1.0 0 1
JT BrubakerMiddle Reliever 3550.83.54 1.2806.637 0.21110113 0.2 1 1
Sam HentgesMiddle Reliever 3121.22.97 1.93412.730 0.00001017 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-3


Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres

HOU 60-58 (4.64 RPG / 4.84 RA)
4 - 3
SD 61-57 (4.21 RPG / 4.34 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 4-3 TARGET: HOU 4 - 3 SD (HOU) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
HOU200000002410
SD00000003036

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record60-58
Win%0.508
Run Diff-23
RD/Game-0.195

SD Season Quality

Record61-57
Win%0.517
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.127

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0805; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 6927583 0.302 13370.362 55100 00 0.200 0.223 0.279 0.365 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 115418137 0.328 35860.442 54211 10 0.500 0.306 0.415 0.547 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 110403100 0.248 15600.344 54000 13 0.000 0.220 0.288 0.361 OK
Jose Altuve2B 9336489 0.245 13340.308 55313 01 0.600 0.273 0.329 0.403 OK
Taylor TrammellRF 5615737 0.236 7200.314 55100 00 0.200 0.235 0.312 0.447 OK
Christian Walker1B 113418102 0.244 22670.324 54110 11 0.250 0.269 0.340 0.461 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 5182 0.111 000.273 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.285 0.311 OK
Yainer DiazC 5621656 0.259 8270.286 44210 01 0.500 0.210 0.240 0.314 OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF 267116 0.225 2150.353 42000 20 0.000 0.180 0.304 0.283 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423710 44 57 0.270

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 115455128 0.281 10500.352 53100 21 0.333 0.246 0.312 0.443 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 6521848 0.220 3170.312 55100 03 0.200 0.237 0.302 0.296 OK
Manny Machado3B 11542590 0.212 23700.298 44111 02 0.250 0.204 0.293 0.343 OK
Ty France1B 8628983 0.287 16500.341 43111 11 0.333 0.239 0.288 0.411 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 114447108 0.242 17580.292 43000 11 0.000 0.275 0.314 0.516 OK
Luis RengifoLF 217022 0.314 280.415 44111 02 0.250 0.233 0.310 0.298 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 10832569 0.212 14430.312 44100 01 0.250 0.209 0.307 0.358 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 11238686 0.223 9410.318 44000 02 0.000 0.214 0.312 0.288 OK
Freddy FerminC 5717132 0.187 4160.266 43000 10 0.000 0.238 0.293 0.365 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 33 513 0.182

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristian JavierStarter 926.46.82 1.7427.823 4.14332887 4.1 8 3
Josh HaderMiddle Reliever 2624.30.74 0.70013.336 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Steven OkertMiddle Reliever 5749.42.55 1.01210.759 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever 4437.84.76 1.50813.155 1.02001123 1.0 1 0
Enyel De Los SantosMiddle Reliever 5148.84.61 1.2709.853 1.20001126 1.2 1 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 2297.54.34 1.4676.065 4.26223589 4.2 5 2
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 4746.30.97 0.86417.791 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 5454.43.31 1.21312.475 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 2721.64.17 1.38912.931 0.21000115 0.2 1 0
Yuki MatsuiMiddle Reliever 3338.72.79 1.37010.947 1.11001021 1.1 0 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever 4843.32.70 1.29311.053 0.02220016 0.0 0 2

Game Summary

HOU wins 4-3


Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins

LAA 45-73 (4.1 RPG / 4.87 RA)
1 - 6
MIA 60-59 (4.4 RPG / 4.28 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 6-1 TARGET: LAA 1 - 6 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA00000001018
MIA00310101x610

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.3
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff-15
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record45-72
Win%0.385
Run Diff-82
RD/Game-0.701

MIA Season Quality

Record59-59
Win%0.500
Run Diff6
RD/Game0.051

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9248; margin adjustment: 0.3884; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Wade MecklerLF 5416751 0.305 3200.363 44200 00 0.500 0.301 0.354 0.416 OK
Mike TroutDH 9835384 0.238 19410.384 44111 00 0.250 0.218 0.350 0.408 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 9635998 0.273 7400.344 44000 01 0.000 0.235 0.300 0.366 OK
Zach NetoSS 114452102 0.226 20500.312 44100 00 0.250 0.182 0.244 0.341 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 5183 0.167 000.211 44100 00 0.250 0.203 0.266 0.309 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 4015035 0.233 5160.286 44000 03 0.000 0.197 0.252 0.305 OK
Josh LoweRF 6920341 0.202 8220.262 44100 00 0.250 0.204 0.282 0.334 OK
Jose SiriCF 5011731 0.265 6190.315 44100 02 0.250 0.143 0.200 0.297 OK
Adam Frazier2B 368517 0.200 160.277 33100 01 0.333 0.138 0.210 0.259 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35358 11 07 0.229

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle Stowers1B 9334783 0.239 16500.325 54110 12 0.250 0.249 0.328 0.443 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 116429123 0.287 6440.367 53012 11 0.000 0.278 0.353 0.374 OK
Otto LopezSS 114457145 0.317 9530.350 55100 00 0.200 0.289 0.321 0.404 OK
Griffin ConineDH 4914337 0.259 10230.338 43213 10 0.667 0.253 0.324 0.473 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 8528164 0.228 16440.292 44000 00 0.000 0.198 0.260 0.413 OK
Owen CaissieRF 8323453 0.226 12500.285 43000 10 0.000 0.187 0.252 0.386 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 11037376 0.204 6280.324 44210 01 0.500 0.252 0.356 0.411 OK
Javier Sanoja3B 8929580 0.271 4390.303 43110 10 0.333 0.281 0.316 0.443 OK
Joe MackC 6820748 0.232 11340.284 44311 00 0.750 0.225 0.267 0.416 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393310 66 54 0.303

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grayson RodriguezStarter 1148.97.55 1.6567.742 4.25444492 4.2 4 4
Ben JoyceMiddle Reliever 22.00.00 1.0009.02 0.11000016 0.1 0 0
Samy Natera Jr.Middle Reliever 2021.52.51 0.97715.938 1.12111027 1.1 0 1
José FerminMiddle Reliever 3533.23.80 1.47612.245 1.01000020 1.0 0 0
Luke MurphyMiddle Reliever 33.10.00 1.29011.64 0.21110020 0.2 0 1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan GustoStarter 1443.64.95 1.3998.139 4.05000465 4.0 4 0
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 3934.76.48 1.41213.050 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 4942.65.07 1.66711.655 1.01000220 1.0 2 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever 4641.53.47 1.22912.156 1.21110012 1.2 0 1
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever 23.09.00 1.6676.02 1.10000022 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 6-1


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

LAD 70-48 (5.01 RPG / 3.84 RA)
7 - 1
ARI 63-56 (4.51 RPG / 4.47 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 7-1 TARGET: LAD 7 - 1 ARI (LAD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAD010310101711
ARI00000001016

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed3.8
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Season Quality

Record69-47
Win%0.595
Run Diff139
RD/Game1.198

ARI Season Quality

Record62-55
Win%0.530
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.034

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2615; margin adjustment: -0.5298; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 106406119 0.293 26690.398 55111 03 0.200 0.309 0.407 0.580 OK
Andy PagesCF 114444120 0.270 19740.335 55111 02 0.200 0.288 0.341 0.462 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 113427130 0.304 15530.380 55110 01 0.200 0.267 0.335 0.389 OK
Tommy Edman2B 3713237 0.280 3200.345 43000 12 0.000 0.224 0.266 0.365 OK
Mookie BettsSS 7830972 0.233 13360.283 44210 01 0.500 0.226 0.271 0.327 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 10738594 0.244 11530.334 44000 01 0.000 0.257 0.341 0.470 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 8028672 0.252 11400.315 44212 00 0.500 0.231 0.284 0.406 OK
Enrique Hernández3B 9195 0.263 120.263 44212 00 0.500 0.244 0.254 0.472 OK
Ben RortvedtC 120 0.000 000.000 44211 01 0.500 0.127 0.140 0.200
TEAM TOTALS 393811 77 111 0.289

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 114409100 0.244 9420.358 44100 00 0.250 0.277 0.367 0.414 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 114429104 0.242 16540.337 44200 00 0.500 0.211 0.290 0.411 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 8931495 0.303 8500.383 44111 01 0.250 0.273 0.345 0.403 OK
Ketel MarteDH 111450110 0.244 19620.305 44100 01 0.250 0.221 0.300 0.381 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 11138192 0.241 17540.321 43100 10 0.333 0.222 0.287 0.423 OK
Ildemaro Vargas2B 9232488 0.272 7510.315 44000 00 0.000 0.272 0.315 0.401 OK
Tim TawaCF 5416238 0.235 6260.287 43000 12 0.000 0.243 0.300 0.401 OK
Tyler Locklear1B 10298 0.276 160.371 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.305 0.367 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtLF 5117249 0.285 2150.328 33000 01 0.000 0.285 0.317 0.414 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 11 27 0.182

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Justin WrobleskiStarter 19115.63.35 1.0817.191 6.15001699 6.1 6 0
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever 119.38.71 2.25814.515 1.00110011 1.0 0 1
Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever 5042.72.53 1.00712.660 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Evan PhillipsMiddle Reliever 127.85.77 1.53810.49 0.20001112 0.2 1 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eduardo RodriguezStarter 23133.32.77 1.2686.292 6.0733110108 6.0 10 3
Brandyn GarciaMiddle Reliever 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.00110013 1.0 0 1
Kevin GinkelMiddle Reliever 5042.93.36 1.2359.043 1.02220119 1.0 1 2
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 0.02110015 0.0 0 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 7-1


Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers

MIN 58-61 (4.65 RPG / 4.94 RA)
2 - 4
MIL 74-44 (4.96 RPG / 3.76 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 4-2 TARGET: MIN 2 - 4 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIN11000000025
MIL00031000x48

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIN Season Quality

Record58-60
Win%0.492
Run Diff-34
RD/Game-0.288

MIL Season Quality

Record73-44
Win%0.624
Run Diff140
RD/Game1.197

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.6833; margin adjustment: 0.707; applied: True

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trevor LarnachLF 9430585 0.279 10400.362 43000 10 0.000 0.167 0.256 0.327 OK
Ryan JeffersC 5419354 0.280 10370.378 44000 00 0.000 0.240 0.327 0.399 OK
Josh BellDH 113415105 0.253 15680.314 44000 01 0.000 0.285 0.342 0.468 OK
Kody Clemens2B 10238188 0.231 19530.286 44211 00 0.500 0.206 0.247 0.397 OK
Royce Lewis1B 8330172 0.239 13410.314 44100 01 0.250 0.298 0.350 0.511 OK
Brooks Lee3B 10941298 0.238 16590.294 44100 00 0.250 0.176 0.228 0.312 OK
Alan RodenRF 204610 0.217 080.309 44000 02 0.000 0.137 0.248 0.182 OK
Luke KeaschallCF 10836697 0.265 6340.354 33000 01 0.000 0.269 0.342 0.385 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 251 0.200 110.500 32111 10 0.500 0.179 0.298 0.433 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 22 25 0.156

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Christian YelichDH 7729967 0.224 7360.312 54000 12 0.000 0.222 0.286 0.332 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 8133794 0.279 16460.341 44111 01 0.250 0.256 0.324 0.505 OK
Brice Turang2B 108422118 0.280 16740.368 44210 00 0.500 0.302 0.380 0.456 OK
William ContrerasC 106410109 0.266 11580.330 43000 00 0.000 0.248 0.305 0.385 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 6719660 0.306 5340.387 44100 01 0.250 0.293 0.373 0.510 OK
Luis LaraRF 195814 0.241 0110.338 43000 10 0.000 0.247 0.345 0.355 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 9932881 0.247 7430.340 43113 10 0.333 0.209 0.300 0.338 OK
Cooper PrattSS 4113035 0.269 2160.344 44210 00 0.500 0.263 0.338 0.344 OK
David Hamilton3B 7923555 0.234 3150.308 43100 11 0.333 0.142 0.229 0.217 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37328 44 45 0.250

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Connor PrielippStarter 1576.54.82 1.3339.581 5.16442493 5.1 4 4
Jeff HoffmanMiddle Reliever 33.03.00 1.33315.05 0.01002018 0.0 0 0
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 3930.72.05 1.27010.636 1.21000019 1.2 0 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 4447.93.57 1.4209.852 1.00000118 1.0 1 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 21126.31.64 0.73613.9195 6.05222599 6.0 5 2
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 4544.11.84 0.83910.451 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 4843.62.27 1.1019.948 1.00000015 1.0 0 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 5458.63.99 1.55314.091 1.0000006 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 4-2


New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

NYM 52-67 (4.19 RPG / 4.55 RA)
3 - 4
PIT 58-62 (5.02 RPG / 4.84 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 4-3 TARGET: NYM 3 - 4 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM00010200037
PIT00010030x48

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYM Season Quality

Record51-67
Win%0.432
Run Diff-53
RD/Game-0.449

PIT Season Quality

Record58-61
Win%0.487
Run Diff31
RD/Game0.261

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7924; margin adjustment: 0.3328; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
A.J. EwingLF 7627474 0.270 7280.339 54100 10 0.250 0.252 0.312 0.370 OK
Francisco LindorSS 6023555 0.234 10290.318 54000 11 0.000 0.231 0.305 0.399 OK
Bo Bichette3B 114459117 0.255 11560.296 55210 01 0.400 0.238 0.277 0.364 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 3813628 0.206 4120.285 43000 11 0.000 0.215 0.278 0.301 OK
Jared Young1B 6419147 0.246 6190.327 44100 01 0.250 0.234 0.303 0.377 OK
Brett BatyRF 9932672 0.221 7340.283 43111 10 0.333 0.211 0.264 0.337 OK
Marcus Semien2B 9734475 0.218 14400.278 44000 02 0.000 0.224 0.287 0.425 OK
Jorge PolancoDH 3211816 0.136 250.190 44112 01 0.250 0.135 0.186 0.263 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 7725462 0.244 11270.330 43100 11 0.333 0.218 0.308 0.365 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39347 33 58 0.206

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake MangumCF 8530593 0.305 3260.353 44211 00 0.500 0.306 0.347 0.413 OK
Ronny SimonRF 4144 0.286 020.333 44111 02 0.250 0.280 0.328 0.367 OK
Bryan ReynoldsDH 116425115 0.271 15630.383 43100 10 0.333 0.264 0.367 0.418 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 109419128 0.305 4510.357 44100 00 0.250 0.257 0.287 0.324 OK
Esmerlyn ValdezLF 4614535 0.241 11300.378 44000 02 0.000 0.220 0.386 0.479 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 107425107 0.252 25740.319 44211 01 0.500 0.247 0.308 0.521 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.1B 8225 0.227 120.370 43000 12 0.000 0.218 0.354 0.379 OK
Jared TrioloSS 7522756 0.247 1200.324 33000 01 0.000 0.169 0.241 0.228 OK
Henry DavisC 6520235 0.173 8300.263 33111 00 0.333 0.189 0.264 0.289 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34328 44 28 0.250

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean ManaeaStarter 2494.44.48 1.4309.195 5.23221693 5.2 6 2
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 4136.14.49 1.66212.751 1.24111037 1.2 0 1
Kodai SengaMiddle Reliever 1544.18.78 1.81411.255 0.21110211 0.2 2 1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jared JonesStarter 1255.34.07 1.12110.162 5.04113587 5.0 5 1
Luke WeaverMiddle Reliever 11.00.00 2.0000.00 1.03221124 1.0 1 2
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 4639.03.92 1.35916.672 1.00000017 1.0 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 4845.43.37 1.10111.759 1.00000120 1.0 1 0
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 4858.53.08 1.41911.474 1.00001125 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3


Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

OAK 47-71 (4.32 RPG / 5.71 RA)
1 - 3
BOS 64-53 (4.47 RPG / 3.75 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 3-1 TARGET: OAK 1 - 3 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 51.0% fallback_enhanced
123456789RH
OAK00100000016
BOS10001010x39

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.48475935828877
Avg Allowed4.48475935828877
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.48475935828877
Avg Allowed4.48475935828877
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

OAK Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

BOS Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 7023760 0.253 5220.327 44100 02 0.250 0.240 0.289 0.348 OK
Jacob WilsonSS 7530482 0.270 7360.301 44100 03 0.250 0.220 0.244 0.315 OK
Jonah HeimC 5820045 0.225 10300.273 44211 00 0.500 0.199 0.243 0.338 OK
Tyler SoderstromDH 10537993 0.245 19540.340 43000 11 0.000 0.232 0.325 0.466 OK
Tommy White1B 207921 0.266 000.284 44100 01 0.250 0.239 0.259 0.275 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 10230362 0.205 7300.294 43000 12 0.000 0.196 0.278 0.345 OK
Jonathan OrnelasLF 5112 0.182 000.250 44000 01 0.000 0.183 0.247 0.216 OK
Max Muncy3B 5316937 0.219 5200.289 44000 00 0.000 0.165 0.225 0.273 OK
Jeff McNeil2B 10031679 0.250 4350.304 33100 00 0.333 0.177 0.229 0.244 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 11 210 0.182

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Sogard2B 207019 0.271 030.386 43000 12 0.000 0.359 0.449 0.472 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 108429123 0.287 14580.327 44311 00 0.750 0.311 0.334 0.509 OK
Wilyer AbreuDH 111425110 0.259 20620.333 44200 01 0.500 0.300 0.381 0.575 OK
Willson Contreras1B 103362103 0.285 23700.391 43011 12 0.000 0.279 0.366 0.482 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 7222060 0.273 6310.331 44211 01 0.500 0.341 0.394 0.515 OK
Anthony Seigler3B 3812530 0.240 3120.307 44000 02 0.000 0.256 0.319 0.413 OK
Jarren DuranLF 10741483 0.200 16540.260 44100 01 0.250 0.230 0.282 0.419 OK
Eli WhiteRF 370 0.000 000.125 44100 01 0.250 0.188 0.235 0.332
Jake RogersC 132 0.667 010.750 33000 00 0.000 0.244 0.348 0.407 MODERATE
TEAM TOTALS 35339 33 210 0.273

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
J.T. GinnStarter 23112.33.61 1.2478.4105 5.15222595 5.1 5 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 5441.24.59 1.94215.169 1.02000219 1.0 2 0
Elvis AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 3430.25.36 1.45713.144 0.12110116 0.1 1 1
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever 3848.73.70 1.47811.663 1.10000220 1.1 2 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Erik MillerStarter 22.10.00 0.95217.14 5.06110793 5.0 7 1
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 3938.21.18 1.09911.850 1.10002028 1.1 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 4442.31.91 0.8759.846 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 3524.55.88 1.71414.038 0.20000013 0.2 0 0
Tyron GuerreroMiddle Reliever 2824.12.61 1.16212.032 1.00000114 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 3-1


Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

TB 71-46 (4.44 RPG / 4.04 RA)
4 - 3
SEA 56-63 (3.88 RPG / 4.04 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 4 - 3 SEA (TB) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TB02000020044
SEA00100010139

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak5W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.5
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-25
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak3L

TB Season Quality

Record69-46
Win%0.600
Run Diff42
RD/Game0.365

SEA Season Quality

Record56-61
Win%0.479
Run Diff-15
RD/Game-0.128

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6755; margin adjustment: -0.2837; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 110430127 0.295 15640.368 44000 03 0.000 0.240 0.292 0.369 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 112419121 0.289 15720.375 44000 01 0.000 0.295 0.362 0.428 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 105403120 0.298 0230.326 44110 00 0.250 0.308 0.334 0.361 OK
Junior Caminero3B 115435122 0.280 33710.373 43000 10 0.000 0.239 0.335 0.521 OK
Liam HicksC 4123 0.250 140.438 43111 11 0.333 0.163 0.260 0.283 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 4414131 0.220 9190.288 44212 01 0.500 0.231 0.292 0.467 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 9733569 0.206 13350.283 43011 00 0.000 0.213 0.281 0.343 OK
Richie Palacios2B 8323855 0.231 5340.333 33000 01 0.000 0.223 0.338 0.365 OK
Taylor WallsSS 8727257 0.210 0230.304 32000 11 0.000 0.118 0.225 0.186 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34304 44 38 0.133

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardRF 5183 0.167 000.167 54000 10 0.000 0.220 0.335 0.302 OK
Cole Young2B 118430113 0.263 14510.322 54211 10 0.500 0.252 0.302 0.367 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 110405113 0.279 14490.372 55200 02 0.400 0.244 0.310 0.385 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 10130375 0.248 18490.320 54111 10 0.250 0.201 0.259 0.369 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 106419109 0.260 18510.321 54311 10 0.750 0.253 0.306 0.417 OK
Josh Naylor1B 110427112 0.262 10420.326 54000 10 0.000 0.266 0.329 0.481 OK
Cal RaleighC 8430650 0.163 12430.270 44100 01 0.250 0.156 0.258 0.308 OK
Weston Wilson3B 205210 0.192 270.236 43000 12 0.000 0.175 0.249 0.274 OK
Colt EmersonSS 6521042 0.200 8230.258 44000 01 0.000 0.206 0.253 0.342 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42369 33 66 0.250

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ian SeymourStarter 3678.54.01 1.14611.499 5.251155118 5.2 5 1
Bryan BakerMiddle Reliever 4845.41.59 0.85910.151 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Kevin KellyMiddle Reliever 5046.32.33 0.9728.443 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Garrett CleavingerMiddle Reliever 4231.03.77 1.41913.948 0.21000013 0.2 0 0
Tyler WellsMiddle Reliever 23.10.00 0.64514.55 0.21111117 0.2 1 1

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emerson HancockStarter 21114.73.37 1.0908.5108 5.22221690 5.2 6 2
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 4440.83.53 1.20114.867 1.02220019 1.0 0 2
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 5141.33.70 1.5018.338 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 5441.54.12 1.54211.151 1.00001117 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies

TOR 56-63 (3.94 RPG / 4.44 RA)
2 - 4
PHI 63-56 (4.44 RPG / 4.44 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 4-2 TARGET: TOR 2 - 4 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TOR00100100025
PHI00013000x410

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.4
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff12
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

TOR Season Quality

Record56-62
Win%0.475
Run Diff-58
RD/Game-0.492

PHI Season Quality

Record62-56
Win%0.525
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.008

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.5593; margin adjustment: 0.2349; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 281 0.125 000.300 43000 11 0.000 0.126 0.227 0.228 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.DH 108405106 0.262 7460.336 44100 00 0.250 0.255 0.326 0.359 OK
Alejandro KirkC 4214436 0.250 4180.315 44000 02 0.000 0.183 0.253 0.276 OK
Kazuma Okamoto1B 11442395 0.225 24700.298 44111 00 0.250 0.212 0.272 0.384 OK
Ernie Clement2B 115445127 0.285 9380.309 44100 01 0.250 0.252 0.272 0.371 OK
Myles StrawRF 8519743 0.218 3170.264 44100 02 0.250 0.209 0.255 0.328 OK
Josh Smith3B 5113 0.273 110.333 43000 11 0.000 0.218 0.296 0.313 OK
Davis SchneiderLF 5011116 0.144 3120.278 33000 00 0.000 0.076 0.237 0.189 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 10634883 0.239 8440.283 33111 00 0.333 0.255 0.282 0.396 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 22 27 0.156

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 110412100 0.243 32630.358 55111 00 0.200 0.246 0.350 0.413 OK
Trea TurnerSS 112470119 0.253 17470.298 55000 02 0.000 0.265 0.302 0.444 OK
Bryce HarperRF 116413106 0.257 25710.366 43200 01 0.667 0.260 0.380 0.514 OK
Luis Arraez2B 5217 0.333 150.348 44000 01 0.000 0.308 0.341 0.439 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 8428765 0.226 8380.301 44112 02 0.250 0.232 0.287 0.356 OK
Bryson Stott3B 111383100 0.261 8510.334 43100 11 0.333 0.282 0.379 0.447 OK
Brandon MarshLF 111410113 0.276 16520.316 43210 10 0.667 0.227 0.270 0.350 OK
Alec Bohm1B 11241994 0.224 13610.283 43211 10 0.667 0.218 0.271 0.338 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 10331381 0.259 2290.310 44100 01 0.250 0.278 0.334 0.378 OK
TEAM TOTALS 383410 44 38 0.294

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BieberStarter 834.95.42 1.7777.228 4.29443498 4.2 4 4
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 5456.71.43 1.07611.975 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 5448.51.86 1.2165.027 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever 3368.63.54 1.2249.371 1.11000123 1.1 1 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 23133.43.44 1.19211.1164 6.152225103 6.1 5 2
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 4239.41.37 0.91413.258 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 4940.23.81 1.41811.451 1.0000003 1.0 0 0
Jonathan BowlanMiddle Reliever 4437.73.10 1.06112.452 0.20000114 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-2