MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

August 6, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (11 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
CHW @ BOS3 - 43 - 4BOSBOSBOS wins 4-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ SEA3 - 13 - 1DETDETDET wins 3-167%fallback_enhanced
LAA @ BAL2 - 42 - 4BALBALBAL wins 4-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ ATL3 - 43 - 4ATLATLATL wins 4-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ KC5 - 35 - 3MINMINMIN wins 5-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ CLE3 - 23 - 2NYMNYMNYM wins 3-266%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ CIN2 - 62 - 6CINCINCIN wins 6-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ MIL3 - 53 - 5MILMILMIL wins 5-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ ARI3 - 53 - 5ARIARIARI wins 5-367%fallback_enhanced
TOR @ CHC3 - 43 - 4CHCCHCCHC wins 4-357%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ PHI3 - 63 - 6PHIPHIPHI wins 6-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox

CHW 59-54 (4.72 RPG / 4.37 RA)
3 - 4
BOS 62-51 (4.35 RPG / 3.68 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 4-3 TARGET: CHW 3 - 4 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHW21000000034
BOS02000200x49

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs6.0
Avg Allowed2.5
Run Diff35
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak7W

CHW Season Quality

Record59-54
Win%0.522
Run Diff39
RD/Game0.345

BOS Season Quality

Record62-51
Win%0.549
Run Diff76
RD/Game0.673

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3673; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 109402109 0.271 9400.345 44211 01 0.500 0.235 0.309 0.371 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 7827867 0.241 24510.375 44000 02 0.000 0.238 0.358 0.519 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 11141499 0.239 24670.343 44112 01 0.250 0.227 0.322 0.484 OK
Randal GrichukDH 6013236 0.273 9220.309 43000 10 0.000 0.187 0.224 0.376 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 10740286 0.214 25630.296 44000 01 0.000 0.198 0.268 0.379 OK
Joey BartC 130 0.000 000.250 43000 12 0.000 0.213 0.268 0.341
Brenton DoyleCF 231 0.333 000.333 43000 11 0.000 0.152 0.229 0.224 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 4616638 0.229 3210.306 42000 20 0.000 0.205 0.277 0.328 OK
Luisangel AcuñaLF 6516841 0.244 1120.279 44110 01 0.250 0.240 0.268 0.281 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36314 33 59 0.129

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Nick Sogard1B 175714 0.246 030.368 54000 11 0.000 0.243 0.362 0.336 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 105412118 0.286 14570.329 55000 00 0.000 0.292 0.320 0.568 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 109418107 0.256 20570.329 44100 01 0.250 0.263 0.337 0.627 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 10234482 0.238 11470.309 43210 10 0.667 0.266 0.324 0.422 OK
Masataka YoshidaDH 7422658 0.257 4220.324 44200 00 0.500 0.260 0.314 0.396 OK
Andruw MonasterioSS 6920755 0.266 6260.319 43211 10 0.667 0.284 0.329 0.459 OK
Jarren DuranLF 10440182 0.204 15520.262 43212 10 0.667 0.282 0.327 0.471 OK
Anthony Seigler2B 3611626 0.224 390.295 43000 13 0.000 0.119 0.189 0.253 OK
Connor WongC 5114536 0.248 2170.337 43011 02 0.000 0.187 0.261 0.296 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38329 44 57 0.281

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Luis CastilloStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 5.184416107 5.1 6 4
Grant TaylorMiddle Reliever 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10002029 1.1 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever 3951.53.32 1.3209.856 1.11002128 1.1 1 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ranger SuarezStarter 1997.23.24 1.1939.7105 5.243336103 5.2 6 3
Aroldis ChapmanMiddle Reliever 3837.20.97 1.10212.150 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever 4341.31.96 0.8969.845 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Justin SlatenMiddle Reliever 3323.35.41 1.58813.936 0.20000112 0.2 1 0
Tyron GuerreroMiddle Reliever 2723.12.73 1.21212.131 0.20001115 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 4-3


Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners

DET 56-59 (4.57 RPG / 3.88 RA)
3 - 1
SEA 56-60 (3.95 RPG / 4.07 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 3-1 TARGET: DET 3 - 1 SEA (DET) Confidence: 67.3% fallback_enhanced
123456789RH
DET01000002039
SEA00100000016

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.503835616438356
Avg Allowed4.503835616438356
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.503835616438356
Avg Allowed4.503835616438356
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

DET Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

SEA Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 109414117 0.283 11420.390 55000 01 0.000 0.274 0.386 0.431 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 5720956 0.268 7290.387 54000 12 0.000 0.244 0.356 0.427 OK
Dillon DinglerC 104393109 0.277 25750.340 55100 00 0.200 0.299 0.334 0.575 OK
Riley GreeneLF 111402112 0.279 16540.371 55200 01 0.400 0.226 0.319 0.411 OK
Colt KeithDH 10329980 0.268 8280.317 42000 21 0.000 0.288 0.335 0.440 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 11238984 0.216 20570.304 44200 01 0.500 0.222 0.291 0.371 OK
Max ClarkCF 5197 0.368 130.500 44111 00 0.250 0.302 0.403 0.524 OK
Javier BáezSS 2910028 0.280 2110.305 44111 01 0.250 0.276 0.298 0.387 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 8526759 0.221 4230.293 43211 10 0.667 0.248 0.313 0.370 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40369 33 47 0.250

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Taylor WardRF 261 0.167 000.167 43200 10 0.667 0.229 0.360 0.315 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 107394112 0.284 14490.378 43200 10 0.667 0.273 0.342 0.462 OK
Dominic CanzoneDH 9829174 0.254 18490.328 44000 02 0.000 0.236 0.301 0.453 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 103407105 0.258 17500.321 44111 02 0.250 0.265 0.329 0.436 OK
Cole Young2B 115419111 0.265 14510.324 43000 10 0.000 0.281 0.330 0.428 OK
Weston Wilson1B 19499 0.184 270.231 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.268 0.326 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 196317 0.270 240.324 44100 01 0.250 0.250 0.289 0.339 OK
Leo Rivas3B 3610213 0.127 070.262 44000 01 0.000 0.104 0.227 0.163 OK
Colt EmersonSS 6220140 0.199 8230.259 44000 01 0.000 0.201 0.253 0.348 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 11 38 0.182

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 22118.74.47 1.4077.498 5.05112586 5.0 5 1
Kenley JansenMiddle Reliever 3227.83.56 1.25911.034 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever 4540.53.11 1.6548.036 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Tyler HoltonMiddle Reliever 4843.63.51 1.5378.139 1.00000016 1.0 0 0
Drew AndersonMiddle Reliever 4160.14.49 1.44811.778 1.00000123 1.0 1 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bryce MillerStarter 1371.92.88 0.9469.374 6.051125101 6.0 5 1
Andrés MuñozMiddle Reliever 4339.83.62 1.23114.765 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
José A. FerrerMiddle Reliever 5040.33.80 1.5148.538 1.03222130 1.0 1 2
Eduard BazardoMiddle Reliever 5341.44.13 1.54611.151 1.00000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

DET wins 3-1


Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles

LAA 44-71 (4.15 RPG / 4.81 RA)
2 - 4
BAL 56-59 (4.49 RPG / 4.77 RA)
WINNER: BAL wins 4-2 TARGET: LAA 2 - 4 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA00000020024
BAL10000201x49

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs2.5
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-20
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

LAA Season Quality

Record43-71
Win%0.377
Run Diff-79
RD/Game-0.693

BAL Season Quality

Record56-58
Win%0.491
Run Diff-30
RD/Game-0.263

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6009; margin adjustment: 0.2524; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Wade MecklerLF 5115347 0.307 3200.369 43110 11 0.333 0.308 0.367 0.444 OK
Mike TroutDH 9534383 0.242 18400.386 43000 12 0.000 0.238 0.360 0.409 OK
Nolan Schanuel1B 9334996 0.275 6370.345 44000 01 0.000 0.235 0.290 0.331 OK
Zach NetoSS 111439100 0.228 19470.316 44000 02 0.000 0.189 0.255 0.314 OK
Vaughn Grissom3B 7024964 0.257 7460.319 43000 10 0.000 0.243 0.295 0.379 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 271 0.143 000.143 44000 00 0.000 0.213 0.278 0.330 OK
Jose SiriCF 4811329 0.257 6190.303 44112 00 0.250 0.205 0.254 0.385 OK
Josh LoweRF 6619740 0.203 8220.251 33100 00 0.333 0.198 0.250 0.334 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 8427565 0.236 7240.280 33100 00 0.333 0.121 0.157 0.225 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34314 22 36 0.129

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dylan BeaversLF 5617443 0.247 2170.320 55000 00 0.000 0.253 0.319 0.355 OK
Pete Alonso1B 111416104 0.250 23710.343 44000 02 0.000 0.244 0.318 0.448 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 11045098 0.218 17460.293 44100 00 0.250 0.211 0.285 0.366 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 12419 0.220 290.289 44111 00 0.250 0.237 0.304 0.445 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 5816339 0.239 5200.335 43100 11 0.333 0.223 0.324 0.323 OK
Coby MayoDH 8325954 0.208 15410.275 44311 00 0.750 0.230 0.290 0.487 OK
Colton CowserCF 8822246 0.207 7250.307 43111 11 0.333 0.125 0.251 0.200 OK
Leody TaverasRF 9229565 0.220 6410.298 42000 21 0.000 0.210 0.282 0.352 OK
Carlos NarváezC 250 0.000 000.167 44211 01 0.500 0.142 0.206 0.236
TEAM TOTALS 37339 44 46 0.273

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ryan JohnsonStarter 1245.37.75 1.6117.437 4.08333490 4.0 4 3
Samy Natera Jr.Middle Reliever 1920.42.65 0.98015.936 2.00000025 2.0 0 0
José FerminMiddle Reliever 3432.23.63 1.42912.645 2.01111232 2.0 2 1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon YoungStarter 18100.33.41 1.3267.685 6.021125101 6.0 5 1
Andrew KittredgeMiddle Reliever 3929.64.56 1.6228.829 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever 5032.92.19 0.9739.836 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Grant WolframMiddle Reliever 4123.35.79 1.76013.936 1.00000015 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

BAL wins 4-2


Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

MIA 58-57 (4.34 RPG / 4.27 RA)
3 - 4
ATL 69-46 (4.86 RPG / 3.92 RA)
WINNER: ATL wins 4-3 TARGET: MIA 3 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIA12000000038
ATL00100030x46

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak7W

MIA Season Quality

Record58-57
Win%0.504
Run Diff8
RD/Game0.070

ATL Season Quality

Record69-46
Win%0.600
Run Diff108
RD/Game0.939

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.013; margin adjustment: 0.4255; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Otto LopezSS 111444142 0.320 9510.352 55312 02 0.600 0.262 0.290 0.395 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 8227063 0.233 16430.300 53000 20 0.000 0.202 0.272 0.389 OK
Xavier Edwards2B 113418120 0.287 6410.366 54000 13 0.000 0.257 0.325 0.342 OK
Leo Jiménez3B 4512626 0.206 2110.284 55111 00 0.200 0.183 0.239 0.286 OK
Kyle Stowers1B 9033678 0.232 16480.318 44000 03 0.000 0.213 0.286 0.447 OK
Javier SanojaRF 8628676 0.266 4370.297 44100 00 0.250 0.258 0.290 0.402 OK
Esteury RuizCF 5412332 0.260 5100.324 44100 00 0.250 0.258 0.298 0.442 OK
Brian NavarretoC 8142 0.143 000.250 44100 00 0.250 0.162 0.214 0.276 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 10836773 0.199 6280.319 42110 20 0.500 0.203 0.304 0.333 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40358 33 58 0.229

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 9134996 0.275 20590.367 42011 11 0.000 0.252 0.325 0.377 OK
Matt Olson1B 114441117 0.265 31690.341 44313 01 0.750 0.260 0.328 0.556 OK
Michael Harris IICF 108412120 0.291 20640.319 44000 02 0.000 0.257 0.283 0.432 OK
Mauricio Dubón2B 109406107 0.264 10560.312 44000 00 0.000 0.267 0.308 0.383 OK
Mike YastrzemskiLF 9425358 0.229 8310.309 44110 00 0.250 0.146 0.220 0.348 OK
Dominic SmithDH 8223462 0.265 8410.308 44000 01 0.000 0.248 0.298 0.419 OK
Austin Riley3B 11340690 0.222 13550.298 32110 10 0.500 0.255 0.311 0.425 OK
Jim JarvisSS 278321 0.253 1100.303 33100 01 0.333 0.228 0.278 0.343 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 23735 0.068 030.171 32000 11 0.000 0.082 0.181 0.098 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33296 44 37 0.207

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Janson JunkStarter 1576.84.69 1.3677.161 5.14112695 5.1 6 1
Pete FairbanksMiddle Reliever 3833.76.68 1.42412.647 1.22331131 1.2 1 3
Calvin FaucherMiddle Reliever 4841.65.19 1.70711.553 1.00000019 1.0 0 0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Martín PérezStarter 2195.73.29 1.1917.175 5.263346112 5.2 6 3
Raisel IglesiasMiddle Reliever 4039.62.73 1.16210.044 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever 5345.72.36 0.83212.664 1.00000118 1.0 1 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever 3943.22.71 1.22712.761 1.10001121 1.1 1 0
Tyler KinleyMiddle Reliever 4433.24.88 1.44610.338 0.02000013 0.0 0 0
Dylan DoddMiddle Reliever 3132.32.23 0.89810.638 0.00000015 0.0 0 0

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-3


Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals

MIN 56-59 (4.65 RPG / 4.97 RA)
5 - 3
KC 48-67 (4.15 RPG / 5.03 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 5-3 TARGET: MIN 5 - 3 KC (MIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIN00100301058
KC00100200036

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIN Season Quality

Record56-59
Win%0.487
Run Diff-36
RD/Game-0.313

KC Season Quality

Record48-67
Win%0.417
Run Diff-102
RD/Game-0.887

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6783; margin adjustment: -0.2849; applied: True

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trevor LarnachLF 9230084 0.280 10400.365 54000 12 0.000 0.241 0.319 0.441 OK
Luke KeaschallCF 10535493 0.263 6330.352 55100 01 0.200 0.276 0.349 0.414 OK
Kody Clemens2B 9936986 0.233 19530.289 43110 10 0.333 0.219 0.265 0.434 OK
Josh BellDH 11040499 0.245 14640.305 43212 00 0.667 0.230 0.288 0.387 OK
Royce Lewis1B 8028867 0.233 12370.309 44000 00 0.000 0.269 0.331 0.483 OK
Brooks Lee3B 10740497 0.240 16570.297 43110 10 0.333 0.204 0.260 0.371 OK
Alan RodenRF 18429 0.214 080.300 44112 01 0.250 0.180 0.279 0.210 OK
Victor CaratiniC 8326460 0.227 7370.307 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.273 0.306 OK
Tristan GraySS 6017039 0.229 4290.268 44211 01 0.500 0.136 0.177 0.204 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38348 55 36 0.235

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 10537686 0.229 15540.303 54000 10 0.000 0.182 0.255 0.339 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 95374105 0.281 13400.349 55111 01 0.200 0.249 0.319 0.412 OK
Jac Caglianone1B 10537594 0.251 18430.305 43100 11 0.333 0.246 0.290 0.443 OK
Salvador PerezDH 10641189 0.217 16470.263 44000 00 0.000 0.222 0.249 0.418 OK
Michael Massey2B 9128576 0.267 9390.301 44000 01 0.000 0.260 0.294 0.445 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 10032077 0.241 6340.341 44100 01 0.250 0.235 0.323 0.376 OK
John RaveRF 133610 0.278 220.333 43000 12 0.000 0.211 0.268 0.489 OK
Josh Rojas3B 246114 0.230 160.254 44210 01 0.500 0.187 0.223 0.269 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 5616841 0.244 3130.295 42112 21 0.500 0.237 0.281 0.316 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38336 33 58 0.182

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Bailey OberStarter 1685.64.52 1.2506.663 5.263346105 5.2 6 3
Yoendrys GómezMiddle Reliever 3728.72.20 1.32410.333 1.00000117 1.0 1 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever 4245.93.73 1.43810.051 1.10000013 1.1 0 0
Tommy NanceMiddle Reliever 97.52.40 1.6009.68 1.00001118 1.0 1 0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael WachaStarter 22136.73.56 1.1707.3111 6.064425102 6.0 5 4
Alex LangeMiddle Reliever 4340.76.86 1.69510.447 1.00000115 1.0 1 0
Daniel Lynch IVMiddle Reliever 4641.12.19 1.0467.735 1.01111020 1.0 0 1
Steven CruzMiddle Reliever 4037.84.76 1.34911.448 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-3


New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians

NYM 50-66 (4.16 RPG / 4.55 RA)
3 - 2
CLE 57-59 (3.96 RPG / 4.2 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 3-2 TARGET: NYM 3 - 2 CLE (NYM) Confidence: 66.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM00003000035
CLE00000000226

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-7
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

NYM Season Quality

Record49-66
Win%0.426
Run Diff-53
RD/Game-0.461

CLE Season Quality

Record57-58
Win%0.496
Run Diff-21
RD/Game-0.183

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3826; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 5722451 0.228 9250.311 44211 00 0.500 0.225 0.289 0.416 OK
Bo Bichette3B 111447114 0.255 11550.296 44000 03 0.000 0.234 0.267 0.342 OK
Luis Robert Jr.CF 3612724 0.189 4120.275 43000 11 0.000 0.119 0.201 0.208 OK
Carson BengeRF 107409107 0.262 13430.324 44000 02 0.000 0.263 0.316 0.423 OK
Francisco AlvarezDH 7524760 0.243 11260.326 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.322 0.388 OK
Marcus Semien2B 9433371 0.213 12350.274 43000 12 0.000 0.200 0.266 0.343 OK
Eric Wagaman1B 17387 0.184 240.244 44111 01 0.250 0.166 0.227 0.267 OK
Luis TorrensC 6218543 0.232 3240.294 33100 01 0.333 0.242 0.294 0.392 OK
Cristian PacheLF 000 0.000 000.000 33111 00 0.333 0.243 0.310 0.399
TEAM TOTALS 34325 33 212 0.156

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Travis BazzanaDH 8230775 0.244 9350.340 55000 02 0.000 0.244 0.330 0.370 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 9435599 0.279 12550.352 43100 11 0.333 0.234 0.322 0.384 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 282 0.250 020.250 44000 00 0.000 0.278 0.339 0.466 OK
Angel MartínezLF 7025458 0.228 11340.265 44210 01 0.500 0.168 0.196 0.300 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 110384100 0.260 9500.325 44100 01 0.250 0.205 0.267 0.303 OK
Petey HalpinCF 4211023 0.209 270.241 43000 10 0.000 0.194 0.217 0.286 OK
Patrick BaileyC 4413231 0.235 5180.278 44000 03 0.000 0.224 0.276 0.393 OK
Angel Genao2B 154 0.800 010.800 43000 11 0.000 0.709 0.712 0.731 OK
Rhys Hoskins1B 8223942 0.176 12350.303 43212 10 0.667 0.179 0.300 0.403 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37336 22 49 0.182

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 22123.83.34 1.13910.8148 6.04002597 6.0 5 0
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever 4035.14.10 1.59513.151 1.00000119 1.0 1 0
Daniel DuarteMiddle Reliever 1012.71.42 0.8668.512 1.10000222 1.1 2 0
Kodai SengaMiddle Reliever 1443.18.98 1.85611.153 0.22222130 0.2 1 2

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Foster GriffinStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 6.05332799 6.0 7 3
Cade SmithMiddle Reliever 4949.32.56 1.19713.373 1.00000116 1.0 1 0
Hunter GaddisMiddle Reliever 4431.63.99 1.55110.035 0.20000115 0.2 1 0
Colin HoldermanMiddle Reliever 4237.61.68 0.90410.142 1.00000214 1.0 2 0
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever 4527.64.89 1.8489.529 0.10000113 0.1 1 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 3-2


Oakland Athletics @ Cincinnati Reds

OAK 45-70 (4.33 RPG / 5.7 RA)
2 - 6
CIN 56-58 (4.18 RPG / 4.7 RA)
WINNER: CIN wins 6-2 TARGET: OAK 2 - 6 CIN (CIN) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
OAK00000100126
CIN00002130x68

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed6.7
Run Diff-34
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak7L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.6
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

OAK Season Quality

Record45-69
Win%0.395
Run Diff-156
RD/Game-1.368

CIN Season Quality

Record55-58
Win%0.487
Run Diff-61
RD/Game-0.540

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.9666; margin adjustment: 0.406; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 6722458 0.259 4210.336 44200 01 0.500 0.268 0.323 0.374 OK
Tommy White1B 176818 0.265 000.286 43000 01 0.000 0.252 0.274 0.292 OK
Jonah HeimDH 5518943 0.228 10280.275 43000 11 0.000 0.218 0.271 0.411 OK
Tyler SoderstromLF 10236890 0.245 17500.340 44111 01 0.250 0.233 0.324 0.423 OK
Max Muncy3B 5016035 0.219 5200.293 44000 01 0.000 0.105 0.182 0.219 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 9929361 0.208 7300.298 44000 02 0.000 0.217 0.297 0.391 OK
Brian ServenC 5123 0.250 120.308 44111 02 0.250 0.169 0.230 0.324 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 4311831 0.263 290.293 44100 00 0.250 0.250 0.279 0.373 OK
Jonathan Ornelas2B 351 0.200 000.200 33100 02 0.333 0.205 0.217 0.240 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 22 111 0.182

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Elly De La CruzSS 93368103 0.280 18520.361 54212 00 0.500 0.270 0.359 0.472 OK
Sal Stewart1B 112424109 0.257 24860.337 55112 02 0.200 0.251 0.333 0.484 OK
JJ BledayLF 8329868 0.228 19460.339 44000 01 0.000 0.212 0.332 0.428 OK
Tyler StephensonC 8427068 0.252 9320.338 44211 00 0.500 0.249 0.347 0.421 OK
Eugenio Suárez3B 8129359 0.201 14390.275 43111 12 0.333 0.199 0.276 0.371 OK
Dane MyersCF 6716645 0.271 3160.361 43000 00 0.000 0.280 0.353 0.380 OK
Héctor RodríguezDH 120 0.000 000.333 43010 11 0.000 0.058 0.330 0.094
Noelvi MarteRF 5116933 0.195 6150.235 43000 12 0.000 0.201 0.242 0.312 OK
Matt McLain2B 8428755 0.192 9270.287 43210 10 0.667 0.191 0.275 0.381 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38328 66 48 0.250

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Mason BarnettStarter 1528.55.05 1.3689.229 5.04220787 5.0 7 2
Hogan HarrisMiddle Reliever 5340.14.49 1.89515.067 1.21112140 1.2 1 1
Elvis AlvaradoMiddle Reliever 3330.05.40 1.40012.642 0.03331017 0.0 0 3
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever 3646.73.85 1.52011.660 1.10001021 1.1 0 0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andrew AbbottStarter 23119.93.98 1.4187.195 5.13111796 5.1 7 1
Emilio PagánMiddle Reliever 2624.44.43 1.18910.328 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 3631.12.60 1.0939.533 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever 5747.32.85 1.4599.550 1.12110220 1.1 2 1

Game Summary

CIN wins 6-2


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers

PIT 57-60 (5.03 RPG / 4.82 RA)
3 - 5
MIL 72-43 (4.97 RPG / 3.74 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 5-3 TARGET: PIT 3 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT02000000135
MIL10011020x58

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-13
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff5
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

PIT Season Quality

Record57-59
Win%0.491
Run Diff27
RD/Game0.233

MIL Season Quality

Record71-43
Win%0.623
Run Diff138
RD/Game1.211

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.1749; margin adjustment: 0.4935; applied: True

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake MangumCF 8229489 0.303 3240.350 44000 00 0.000 0.269 0.306 0.368 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 104413104 0.252 23710.317 43000 11 0.000 0.240 0.297 0.434 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 113414112 0.271 15630.382 43000 10 0.000 0.248 0.340 0.390 OK
Endy RodríguezDH 4213035 0.269 7200.362 44110 01 0.250 0.263 0.346 0.467 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 7825970 0.270 10360.373 44100 02 0.250 0.127 0.234 0.252 OK
Nick Gonzales3B 106407123 0.302 4480.354 44212 01 0.500 0.243 0.279 0.317 OK
Ronny SimonRF 110 0.000 000.500 42011 12 0.000 0.053 0.471 0.088
Jacob GonzalezSS 15387 0.184 130.179 44000 00 0.000 0.133 0.179 0.257 OK
Henry DavisC 6319533 0.169 8300.259 33100 01 0.333 0.159 0.232 0.253 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35315 33 38 0.161

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 105410112 0.273 16690.363 54000 11 0.000 0.248 0.334 0.396 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 7832792 0.281 14440.339 42110 20 0.500 0.269 0.327 0.453 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 9631679 0.250 7420.344 44000 01 0.000 0.188 0.288 0.331 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 6518857 0.303 5320.387 43312 10 1.000 0.241 0.336 0.441 OK
Christian YelichDH 7428865 0.226 7360.314 43000 10 0.000 0.226 0.292 0.354 OK
Luis LaraRF 175212 0.231 0110.328 44212 01 0.500 0.235 0.333 0.358 OK
Gary SánchezC 5715433 0.214 8260.361 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.356 0.385 OK
David Hamilton3B 7622853 0.232 3150.303 44111 01 0.250 0.201 0.273 0.285 OK
Cooper PrattSS 3812034 0.283 2150.364 44110 01 0.250 0.295 0.377 0.387 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37328 55 56 0.250

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Braxton AshcraftStarter 22125.04.03 1.18410.1140 5.153343106 5.1 3 3
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever 4744.43.24 1.05911.456 1.01000119 1.0 1 0
Mason MontgomeryMiddle Reliever 4639.03.92 1.35916.672 0.12221117 0.1 1 2
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever 4755.43.25 1.46211.470 1.10000123 1.1 1 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dustin MayStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 5.14220591 5.1 5 2
Trevor MegillMiddle Reliever 4443.11.88 0.85810.651 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Abner UribeMiddle Reliever 4742.62.32 1.1039.947 1.20000124 1.2 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever 5256.64.13 1.59013.786 1.01113028 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-3


San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks

SD 59-56 (4.23 RPG / 4.37 RA)
3 - 5
ARI 61-54 (4.58 RPG / 4.52 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 5-3 TARGET: SD 3 - 5 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 67.3% fallback_enhanced
123456789RH
SD00000003033
ARI03010010x57

SD Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.503825136612022
Avg Allowed4.503825136612022
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.503825136612022
Avg Allowed4.503825136612022
Run Diff?
Off Trend?
Def Trend?
Streak?

SD Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

ARI Season Quality

Record?-?
Win%?
Run Diff?
RD/Game?

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -; margin adjustment: -; applied: False

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 112443124 0.280 9490.350 44000 03 0.000 0.233 0.297 0.407 OK
Luis RengifoLF 185919 0.322 280.429 44000 01 0.000 0.230 0.311 0.297 OK
Manny Machado3B 11241588 0.212 23690.295 44000 01 0.000 0.205 0.290 0.365 OK
Ty France1B 8328181 0.288 16490.340 44000 02 0.000 0.262 0.297 0.407 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 111434104 0.240 16540.291 44110 00 0.250 0.267 0.311 0.435 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 10937684 0.223 9410.320 43000 12 0.000 0.225 0.326 0.306 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 10531768 0.215 14430.314 33110 00 0.333 0.208 0.301 0.360 OK
Freddy FerminC 5616731 0.186 4150.266 33113 00 0.333 0.242 0.299 0.405 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 6220845 0.216 3170.306 31000 20 0.000 0.212 0.283 0.259 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33303 33 39 0.100

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 11139797 0.244 9410.359 44000 01 0.000 0.291 0.377 0.435 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 111417102 0.245 16530.340 44110 01 0.250 0.248 0.332 0.454 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 5117448 0.276 6250.358 43000 10 0.000 0.297 0.369 0.491 OK
Ketel Marte2B 108441109 0.247 19620.303 43211 11 0.667 0.208 0.260 0.373 OK
Lars NootbaarDH 261 0.167 010.444 43110 10 0.333 0.224 0.332 0.335 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 10836990 0.244 16530.325 44000 01 0.000 0.230 0.306 0.467 OK
Max KeplerLF 288719 0.218 2150.286 44113 01 0.250 0.199 0.274 0.339 OK
Tim Tawa1B 5115135 0.232 6260.279 42000 22 0.000 0.240 0.285 0.421 OK
Ryan WaldschmidtCF 4816148 0.298 1130.339 44211 00 0.500 0.360 0.390 0.498 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36317 55 57 0.226

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walker BuehlerStarter 22100.65.37 1.5018.292 4.24444593 4.2 5 4
Mason MillerMiddle Reliever 4544.30.81 0.85817.988 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonMiddle Reliever 5252.33.44 1.22412.070 1.10000120 1.1 1 0
Jeremiah EstradaMiddle Reliever 2520.44.41 1.37312.428 0.02110013 0.0 0 1
Yuki MatsuiMiddle Reliever 3236.72.70 1.39011.547 1.00001122 1.0 1 0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kohl DrakeStarter 313.04.85 1.4628.312 4.12111581 4.1 5 1
Juan MorilloMiddle Reliever 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 2.00000025 2.0 0 0
Brandyn GarciaMiddle Reliever 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.11222217 1.1 2 2
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.10000217 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-3


Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs

TOR 54-62 (3.89 RPG / 4.41 RA)
3 - 4
CHC 67-49 (5.13 RPG / 4.27 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: TOR 3 - 4 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 57.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TOR002000010310
CHC00000200244

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-3
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff23
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

TOR Season Quality

Record54-61
Win%0.470
Run Diff-60
RD/Game-0.522

CHC Season Quality

Record66-49
Win%0.574
Run Diff99
RD/Game0.861

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5391; margin adjustment: 0.6464; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Myles StrawCF 8218643 0.231 3170.275 55000 01 0.000 0.240 0.281 0.388 OK
Kazuma Okamoto1B 11141194 0.229 24700.302 54112 11 0.250 0.221 0.276 0.402 OK
Alejandro KirkC 4013632 0.235 4150.309 55210 01 0.400 0.165 0.246 0.290 OK
George SpringerDH 8432477 0.238 12360.321 44200 01 0.500 0.241 0.314 0.389 OK
Nathan LukesRF 7825668 0.266 5180.323 44100 00 0.250 0.185 0.230 0.256 OK
Ernie Clement3B 112431123 0.285 9380.310 44200 01 0.500 0.253 0.276 0.387 OK
Luis Urías2B 215012 0.240 380.316 43011 00 0.000 0.147 0.233 0.288 OK
Davis SchneiderLF 4911016 0.145 3120.269 43000 10 0.000 0.083 0.215 0.200 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 10333677 0.229 7400.274 44200 00 0.500 0.221 0.243 0.321 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393610 33 25 0.278

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 113423123 0.291 26690.389 43000 11 0.000 0.324 0.401 0.711 OK
Seiya SuzukiDH 97365101 0.277 19640.370 44111 02 0.250 0.292 0.386 0.514 OK
Michael Busch1B 112425104 0.245 13610.355 44111 01 0.250 0.233 0.318 0.376 OK
Alex Bregman3B 111440109 0.248 11480.340 44000 01 0.000 0.242 0.313 0.369 OK
Ian HappLF 10739785 0.214 18480.324 44110 01 0.250 0.178 0.280 0.320 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 111444117 0.264 7540.321 44112 02 0.250 0.341 0.385 0.511 OK
Michael ConfortoRF 7216939 0.231 9230.316 31000 20 0.000 0.227 0.312 0.432 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 10737081 0.219 15560.297 33000 00 0.000 0.252 0.320 0.419 OK
Miguel AmayaC 5115937 0.233 3180.322 32000 10 0.000 0.145 0.205 0.226 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33294 44 48 0.138

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 20117.02.46 1.10313.4174 6.222248106 6.2 8 2
Louis VarlandMiddle Reliever 5253.71.17 1.08012.474 1.00000018 1.0 0 0
Tyler RogersMiddle Reliever 5347.51.71 1.1585.127 0.10000012 0.1 0 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever 3268.43.29 1.1849.371 0.02220012 0.0 0 2

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
David PetersonStarter 630.94.66 1.1976.422 5.16222393 5.1 3 2
Jacob WebbMiddle Reliever 5146.02.74 1.32611.056 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Trent ThorntonMiddle Reliever 3131.42.87 1.2104.616 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Caleb ThielbarMiddle Reliever 3928.55.68 1.50913.643 1.02110013 1.0 0 1
Ryan RolisonMiddle Reliever 4035.93.01 1.56011.546 0.20000018 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3


Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

WAS 56-61 (5.32 RPG / 5.24 RA)
3 - 6
PHI 62-54 (4.41 RPG / 4.4 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 6-3 TARGET: WAS 3 - 6 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
WAS10100100039
PHI30003000x67

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-16
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.6
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

WAS Season Quality

Record56-60
Win%0.483
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.121

PHI Season Quality

Record61-54
Win%0.530
Run Diff-2
RD/Game-0.017

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0666; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dylan CrewsRF 6223552 0.221 9250.302 55211 01 0.400 0.194 0.251 0.331 OK
Andrés Chaparro1B 409019 0.211 6230.311 55100 02 0.200 0.143 0.228 0.356 OK
Brady House3B 5319445 0.232 8270.282 43100 11 0.333 0.187 0.232 0.372 OK
CJ AbramsSS 112421122 0.290 28880.365 44111 02 0.250 0.265 0.324 0.450 OK
Harry FordDH 10285 0.179 140.343 44100 01 0.250 0.181 0.321 0.350 OK
Andrew PinckneyLF 000 0.000 000.000 43100 11 0.333 0.097 0.177 0.202
Jacob YoungCF 9130873 0.237 9360.296 44011 01 0.000 0.232 0.300 0.358 OK
Nasim Nuñez2B 10132877 0.235 1330.318 44000 02 0.000 0.172 0.260 0.214 OK
Keibert RuizC 7324164 0.266 7370.300 44200 01 0.500 0.242 0.282 0.377 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 33 212 0.250

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 10740096 0.240 32620.358 44110 01 0.250 0.182 0.315 0.358 OK
Trea TurnerSS 109456115 0.252 16450.297 44110 02 0.250 0.248 0.285 0.390 OK
Bryce HarperRF 113401101 0.252 24680.362 43110 12 0.333 0.257 0.381 0.530 OK
Luis Arraez2B 293 0.333 130.333 44110 00 0.250 0.291 0.320 0.432 OK
Alec Bohm1B 10941093 0.227 13600.285 44214 01 0.500 0.243 0.289 0.359 OK
Brandon MarshLF 108399111 0.278 16500.317 44000 01 0.000 0.246 0.280 0.362 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 8227962 0.222 8370.299 33000 00 0.000 0.234 0.295 0.362 OK
Bryson Stott3B 10837496 0.257 8500.325 32000 10 0.000 0.281 0.373 0.436 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 10030478 0.257 2270.303 33112 00 0.333 0.270 0.306 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33317 66 27 0.226

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Miles MikolasStarter 23104.55.86 1.3974.755 4.27662393 4.2 3 6
Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever 3530.53.84 1.34410.335 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever 3630.53.84 1.3449.432 1.00000217 1.0 2 0
Tom CosgroveMiddle Reliever 96.93.91 1.4496.55 1.00000215 1.0 2 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Cristopher SánchezStarter 23142.82.65 1.21810.6168 6.063327112 6.0 7 3
Jhoan DuranMiddle Reliever 4037.41.44 0.93613.556 1.00000216 1.0 2 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever 4739.13.68 1.38111.048 1.00000219 1.0 2 0
Jonathan BowlanMiddle Reliever 4235.73.28 1.12012.650 1.03000122 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

PHI wins 6-3