| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ CLE | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 | ARI | ARI | ARI wins 5-2 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| BOS @ LAD | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHW @ TB | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | TB | TB | TB wins 4-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| DET @ OAK | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | DET | DET | DET wins 5-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| KC @ COL | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 | KC | KC | KC wins 5-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIA @ NYM | 6 - 3 | 6 - 3 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 6-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIL @ LAA | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 5-1 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIN @ SEA | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYY @ CHC | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PHI @ BAL | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 4-3 | 60% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PIT @ CIN | 3 - 5 | 5 - 4 | CIN | PIT | PIT wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SF @ SD | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | SD | SD | SD wins 4-3 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| STL @ TOR | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 5-3 | 64% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TEX @ HOU | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | HOU | HOU | HOU wins 5-3 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| WAS @ ATL | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 6-3 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.2979; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ryan Waldschmidt | CF | 32 | 112 | 29 | 0.259 | 0 | 8 | 0.314 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.301 | 0.361 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 75 | 257 | 61 | 0.237 | 4 | 27 | 0.354 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.231 | 0.361 | 0.335 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 73 | 297 | 78 | 0.263 | 12 | 46 | 0.315 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.285 | 0.339 | 0.477 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | LF | 14 | 36 | 5 | 0.139 | 0 | 2 | 0.238 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.158 | 0.255 | 0.230 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 51 | 174 | 48 | 0.276 | 6 | 25 | 0.358 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.291 | 0.369 | 0.471 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 73 | 247 | 59 | 0.239 | 8 | 32 | 0.315 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.299 | 0.362 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 75 | 278 | 79 | 0.284 | 13 | 42 | 0.372 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 0.376 | 0.571 | OK |
| Max Kepler | LF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.314 | 0.409 | |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 62 | 230 | 60 | 0.261 | 7 | 37 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.286 | 0.358 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | LF | 99 | 347 | 88 | 0.254 | 1 | 21 | 0.348 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.330 | 0.406 | 0.395 | OK |
| José Ramírez | DH | 80 | 302 | 71 | 0.235 | 10 | 35 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.221 | 0.318 | 0.355 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 91 | 345 | 96 | 0.278 | 12 | 52 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.275 | 0.370 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 79 | 296 | 72 | 0.243 | 9 | 33 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.236 | 0.312 | 0.339 | OK |
| Kyle Manzardo | 1B | 99 | 304 | 66 | 0.217 | 13 | 38 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.204 | 0.290 | 0.421 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 107 | 375 | 99 | 0.264 | 9 | 50 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.248 | 0.296 | OK |
| Gabriel Arias | 3B | 35 | 112 | 31 | 0.277 | 5 | 11 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.308 | 0.390 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 42 | 124 | 28 | 0.226 | 4 | 16 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.117 | 0.180 | 0.219 | OK |
| Petey Halpin | CF | 40 | 105 | 22 | 0.210 | 2 | 7 | 0.243 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.221 | 0.289 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Merrill Kelly | Starter | 12 | 68.5 | 5.91 | 1.533 | 5.5 | 42 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 92 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Juan Morillo | Middle Reliever | 2 | 1.2 | 15.00 | 3.333 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever | 2 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.476 | 8.6 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 9.00 | 2.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gavin Williams | Starter | 22 | 131.7 | 3.76 | 1.086 | 11.5 | 168 | 6.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 109 | 6.1 | 8 | 1 |
| Cade Smith | Middle Reliever | 47 | 47.2 | 2.67 | 1.144 | 13.3 | 70 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Middle Reliever | 42 | 30.5 | 4.13 | 1.541 | 10.0 | 34 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Holderman | Middle Reliever | 42 | 37.6 | 1.68 | 0.904 | 10.1 | 42 | 1.0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 1.0 | 1 | 4 |
ARI wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
Quality edge: 1.0472; margin adjustment: 0.4398; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Sogard | 2B | 14 | 46 | 12 | 0.261 | 0 | 3 | 0.370 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.247 | 0.351 | 0.340 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 102 | 401 | 115 | 0.287 | 13 | 54 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.304 | 0.327 | 0.685 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 106 | 407 | 101 | 0.248 | 16 | 53 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.180 | 0.245 | 0.349 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 99 | 347 | 99 | 0.285 | 23 | 67 | 0.394 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.195 | 0.316 | 0.416 | OK |
| Masataka Yoshida | DH | 71 | 215 | 54 | 0.251 | 3 | 19 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.295 | 0.325 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 99 | 334 | 78 | 0.234 | 10 | 41 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.298 | 0.355 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | SS | 66 | 197 | 51 | 0.259 | 6 | 23 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.310 | 0.462 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 101 | 390 | 77 | 0.197 | 13 | 50 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.274 | 0.324 | OK |
| Carlos Narváez | C | 57 | 169 | 32 | 0.189 | 3 | 10 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.142 | 0.205 | 0.257 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 100 | 383 | 111 | 0.290 | 24 | 65 | 0.395 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.305 | 0.403 | 0.580 | OK |
| Andy Pages | CF | 108 | 420 | 113 | 0.269 | 18 | 70 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.292 | 0.345 | 0.472 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | 2B | 31 | 108 | 33 | 0.306 | 2 | 16 | 0.380 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.306 | 0.406 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 107 | 406 | 126 | 0.310 | 15 | 52 | 0.387 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.393 | 0.448 | 0.529 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 72 | 286 | 67 | 0.234 | 13 | 36 | 0.286 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.156 | 0.205 | 0.257 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 101 | 365 | 86 | 0.236 | 9 | 51 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.121 | 0.230 | 0.238 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 74 | 266 | 68 | 0.256 | 10 | 39 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.287 | 0.346 | 0.491 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 100 | 333 | 83 | 0.249 | 21 | 49 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.314 | 0.449 | OK |
| Dalton Rushing | C | 68 | 215 | 55 | 0.256 | 12 | 36 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.303 | 0.483 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 0.103 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jake Bennett | Starter | 11 | 63.8 | 2.82 | 1.003 | 6.5 | 46 | 6.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 109 | 6.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Middle Reliever | 38 | 37.2 | 0.97 | 1.102 | 12.1 | 50 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever | 41 | 39.3 | 2.06 | 0.891 | 9.6 | 42 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Slaten | Middle Reliever | 32 | 23.2 | 5.43 | 1.595 | 14.0 | 36 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyron Guerrero | Middle Reliever | 25 | 21.1 | 2.56 | 1.232 | 12.4 | 29 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Emmet Sheehan | Starter | 19 | 89.4 | 5.13 | 1.298 | 10.5 | 104 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 87 | 5.0 | 2 | 5 |
| Edwin Díaz | Middle Reliever | 8 | 8.0 | 5.62 | 1.625 | 13.5 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tanner Scott | Middle Reliever | 47 | 41.4 | 2.61 | 0.918 | 12.4 | 57 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan Phillips | Middle Reliever | 8 | 6.4 | 7.03 | 1.562 | 12.7 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever | 49 | 29.6 | 3.34 | 1.486 | 16.1 | 53 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | Middle Reliever | 42 | 38.1 | 3.07 | 1.181 | 10.2 | 43 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
BOS wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | x | 4 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.0227; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Tristan Peters | CF | 68 | 194 | 56 | 0.289 | 3 | 24 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.322 | 0.430 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 74 | 271 | 59 | 0.218 | 20 | 45 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.277 | 0.466 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 74 | 281 | 76 | 0.270 | 6 | 25 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.310 | 0.361 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | IF | 56 | 198 | 48 | 0.242 | 20 | 41 | 0.381 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.376 | 0.568 | OK |
| Drew Romo | C | 27 | 90 | 13 | 0.144 | 5 | 11 | 0.228 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.142 | 0.213 | 0.325 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 75 | 275 | 65 | 0.236 | 16 | 44 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.313 | 0.411 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | OF | 12 | 42 | 11 | 0.262 | 1 | 5 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.308 | 0.438 | OK |
| Sam Antonacci | SS | 58 | 199 | 58 | 0.291 | 4 | 22 | 0.391 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.297 | 0.355 | 0.456 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 69 | 214 | 50 | 0.234 | 9 | 37 | 0.292 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.195 | 0.255 | 0.409 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 105 | 407 | 125 | 0.307 | 15 | 63 | 0.382 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.305 | 0.362 | 0.468 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 106 | 392 | 111 | 0.283 | 14 | 65 | 0.374 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.333 | 0.384 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 109 | 411 | 115 | 0.280 | 30 | 66 | 0.373 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.334 | 0.468 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | 2B | 57 | 159 | 40 | 0.252 | 9 | 34 | 0.312 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.241 | 0.297 | 0.475 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 99 | 379 | 110 | 0.290 | 0 | 20 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.283 | 0.314 | 0.344 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | RF | 61 | 201 | 54 | 0.269 | 7 | 33 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.271 | 0.425 | OK |
| Ben Williamson | SS | 76 | 235 | 59 | 0.251 | 2 | 24 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.303 | 0.325 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 92 | 320 | 65 | 0.203 | 13 | 34 | 0.279 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.155 | 0.217 | 0.319 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 78 | 236 | 66 | 0.280 | 4 | 28 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.325 | 0.341 | 0.464 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Anthony Kay | Starter | 15 | 68.0 | 4.76 | 1.485 | 7.3 | 55 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 97 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Grant Taylor | Middle Reliever | 6 | 6.1 | 1.48 | 1.311 | 11.8 | 8 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Middle Reliever | 1 | 2.1 | 8.57 | 1.905 | 4.3 | 1 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever | 24 | 20.9 | 1.72 | 1.483 | 9.9 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever | 2 | 0.3 | 90.00 | 20.000 | 30.0 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Griffin Jax | Starter | 27 | 83.4 | 3.56 | 1.235 | 9.9 | 92 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 85 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Bryan Baker | Middle Reliever | 45 | 42.4 | 1.49 | 0.873 | 9.8 | 46 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Middle Reliever | 46 | 43.9 | 2.46 | 0.957 | 8.6 | 42 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | Middle Reliever | 38 | 29.5 | 3.66 | 1.356 | 14.0 | 46 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -1.8318; margin adjustment: -0.7694; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 54 | 199 | 53 | 0.266 | 6 | 25 | 0.378 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.279 | 0.360 | 0.468 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | DH | 101 | 380 | 103 | 0.271 | 23 | 72 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.313 | 0.501 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | SS | 106 | 402 | 117 | 0.291 | 11 | 41 | 0.396 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.331 | 0.420 | 0.544 | OK |
| Eduardo Valencia | C | 9 | 26 | 12 | 0.462 | 4 | 7 | 0.481 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.364 | 0.372 | 0.617 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 109 | 375 | 81 | 0.216 | 20 | 54 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 0.366 | 0.488 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 3B | 65 | 186 | 50 | 0.269 | 6 | 26 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.322 | 0.477 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 2 | 9 | 5 | 0.556 | 1 | 3 | 0.600 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.394 | 0.440 | 0.835 | OK |
| Ben Malgeri | LF | 15 | 39 | 11 | 0.282 | 1 | 7 | 0.341 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.290 | 0.356 | 0.435 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 82 | 258 | 54 | 0.209 | 4 | 23 | 0.280 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.302 | 0.376 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Donovan Walton | 2B | 13 | 23 | 5 | 0.217 | 0 | 2 | 0.438 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.364 | 0.450 | OK |
| Tyler Soderstrom | LF | 99 | 359 | 87 | 0.242 | 17 | 50 | 0.336 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.213 | 0.284 | 0.380 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 52 | 178 | 41 | 0.230 | 10 | 27 | 0.276 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.232 | 0.275 | 0.417 | OK |
| Tommy White | 3B | 14 | 56 | 17 | 0.304 | 0 | 0 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.294 | 0.329 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 96 | 282 | 59 | 0.209 | 6 | 29 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.327 | 0.412 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | DH | 81 | 227 | 60 | 0.264 | 7 | 28 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.291 | 0.367 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 40 | 109 | 29 | 0.266 | 2 | 9 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.388 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 1B | 96 | 303 | 75 | 0.248 | 4 | 34 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.333 | OK |
| Henry Bolte | CF | 64 | 214 | 55 | 0.257 | 4 | 21 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.318 | 0.363 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Keider Montero | Starter | 23 | 106.6 | 3.46 | 1.051 | 6.7 | 79 | 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 84 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Kenley Jansen | Middle Reliever | 32 | 27.8 | 3.56 | 1.259 | 11.0 | 34 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever | 45 | 40.5 | 3.11 | 1.654 | 8.0 | 36 | 2.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 54 | 2.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Holton | Middle Reliever | 46 | 41.4 | 3.70 | 1.570 | 8.3 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gage Jump | Starter | 12 | 60.9 | 4.14 | 1.445 | 10.0 | 68 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 90 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Hogan Harris | Middle Reliever | 51 | 38.9 | 4.16 | 1.825 | 15.0 | 65 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 31 | 28.8 | 5.62 | 1.424 | 12.5 | 40 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever | 36 | 46.7 | 3.85 | 1.520 | 11.6 | 60 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| José Suarez | Middle Reliever | 30 | 33.5 | 4.57 | 1.343 | 9.4 | 35 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
DET wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.1795; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | DH | 102 | 365 | 86 | 0.236 | 15 | 54 | 0.307 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.304 | 0.428 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 2B | 72 | 223 | 57 | 0.256 | 5 | 35 | 0.331 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.271 | 0.339 | 0.430 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 102 | 364 | 90 | 0.247 | 18 | 42 | 0.304 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.270 | 0.457 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | 1B | 103 | 401 | 87 | 0.217 | 16 | 46 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.261 | 0.412 | OK |
| Starling Marte | LF | 49 | 132 | 33 | 0.250 | 1 | 10 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.274 | 0.289 | OK |
| John Rave | CF | 10 | 28 | 9 | 0.321 | 2 | 2 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.312 | 0.354 | 0.689 | OK |
| Tyler Tolbert | SS | 30 | 76 | 26 | 0.342 | 3 | 6 | 0.386 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.332 | 0.382 | 0.513 | OK |
| Josh Rojas | 3B | 23 | 59 | 14 | 0.237 | 1 | 6 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.222 | 0.243 | 0.324 | OK |
| Luke Maile | C | 4 | 12 | 3 | 0.250 | 1 | 4 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.244 | 0.300 | 0.451 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | DH | 90 | 337 | 98 | 0.291 | 10 | 58 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.304 | 0.452 | OK |
| Mickey Moniak | LF | 71 | 249 | 69 | 0.277 | 17 | 47 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.300 | 0.522 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 41 | 137 | 40 | 0.292 | 5 | 26 | 0.380 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.298 | 0.389 | 0.514 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 105 | 381 | 114 | 0.299 | 13 | 56 | 0.378 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.301 | 0.363 | 0.427 | OK |
| Willi Castro | 3B | 93 | 332 | 87 | 0.262 | 12 | 46 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.337 | 0.477 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | RF | 93 | 303 | 86 | 0.284 | 3 | 40 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.206 | 0.261 | 0.308 | OK |
| Edouard Julien | 2B | 81 | 226 | 47 | 0.208 | 3 | 20 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.129 | 0.227 | 0.257 | OK |
| Brett Sullivan | C | 46 | 136 | 31 | 0.228 | 4 | 16 | 0.257 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.281 | 0.418 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 99 | 340 | 67 | 0.197 | 8 | 34 | 0.244 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.126 | 0.186 | 0.226 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Seth Lugo | Starter | 22 | 121.8 | 4.29 | 1.388 | 7.1 | 96 | 5.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 99 | 5.2 | 11 | 1 |
| Alex Lange | Middle Reliever | 43 | 40.7 | 6.86 | 1.695 | 10.4 | 47 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | Middle Reliever | 45 | 40.1 | 2.24 | 1.047 | 7.6 | 34 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Steven Cruz | Middle Reliever | 37 | 34.8 | 4.91 | 1.408 | 11.9 | 46 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Freeland | Starter | 19 | 96.3 | 7.57 | 1.599 | 7.9 | 85 | 4.2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 86 | 4.2 | 3 | 4 |
| Jordan Romano | Middle Reliever | 8 | 7.2 | 1.25 | 1.389 | 12.5 | 10 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Senzatela | Middle Reliever | 34 | 46.5 | 4.06 | 1.462 | 8.9 | 46 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 44 | 41.8 | 6.24 | 1.818 | 10.6 | 49 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
KC wins 5-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.7321; margin adjustment: -0.3075; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Liam Hicks | DH | 100 | 350 | 99 | 0.283 | 14 | 62 | 0.364 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.369 | 0.416 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 87 | 325 | 77 | 0.237 | 16 | 48 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.236 | 0.314 | 0.576 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 108 | 432 | 139 | 0.322 | 9 | 51 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.291 | 0.385 | OK |
| Xavier Edwards | 2B | 111 | 410 | 118 | 0.288 | 6 | 40 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.274 | 0.350 | 0.359 | OK |
| Griffin Conine | LF | 43 | 122 | 34 | 0.279 | 10 | 21 | 0.362 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.366 | 0.579 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 78 | 218 | 52 | 0.239 | 12 | 50 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.195 | 0.253 | 0.455 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 106 | 361 | 71 | 0.197 | 6 | 28 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 0.251 | 0.277 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 63 | 193 | 46 | 0.238 | 10 | 32 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.291 | 0.426 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 83 | 277 | 74 | 0.267 | 4 | 37 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.303 | 0.450 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| A.J. Ewing | LF | 70 | 250 | 68 | 0.272 | 7 | 28 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.328 | 0.373 | OK |
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 54 | 210 | 50 | 0.238 | 9 | 25 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.264 | 0.338 | 0.464 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 108 | 434 | 111 | 0.256 | 10 | 53 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.257 | 0.310 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 104 | 397 | 105 | 0.264 | 11 | 41 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.321 | 0.394 | OK |
| Luis Robert Jr. | CF | 33 | 118 | 23 | 0.195 | 4 | 12 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.182 | 0.262 | 0.297 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 58 | 172 | 42 | 0.244 | 6 | 16 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.269 | 0.341 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 91 | 324 | 70 | 0.216 | 12 | 35 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.210 | 0.258 | 0.359 | OK |
| Jorge Polanco | DH | 28 | 104 | 14 | 0.135 | 1 | 4 | 0.189 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.115 | 0.164 | 0.190 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 72 | 236 | 58 | 0.246 | 11 | 26 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.326 | 0.412 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0.235 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sandy Alcantara | Starter | 23 | 148.8 | 3.87 | 1.223 | 7.0 | 115 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 101 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Pete Fairbanks | Middle Reliever | 37 | 32.7 | 6.88 | 1.407 | 12.7 | 46 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Middle Reliever | 47 | 40.6 | 5.32 | 1.700 | 11.1 | 50 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever | 44 | 39.4 | 3.65 | 1.218 | 11.9 | 52 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robert Stock | Starter | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 2.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 54 | 2.0 | 4 | 6 |
| Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 39 | 34.1 | 3.96 | 1.584 | 13.5 | 51 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 41 | 40.9 | 1.98 | 0.880 | 9.7 | 44 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 44 | 34.5 | 2.35 | 1.304 | 10.4 | 40 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 45 | 44.2 | 3.05 | 1.176 | 9.6 | 47 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Duarte | Middle Reliever | 8 | 11.5 | 1.57 | 0.783 | 9.4 | 12 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Herget | Reliever | 1 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
MIA wins 6-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Quality edge: -2.2926; margin adjustment: -0.9629; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brice Turang | 2B | 101 | 395 | 110 | 0.278 | 16 | 69 | 0.368 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.311 | 0.385 | 0.501 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 74 | 313 | 87 | 0.278 | 13 | 42 | 0.332 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.295 | 0.403 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 92 | 303 | 79 | 0.261 | 7 | 42 | 0.352 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.337 | 0.406 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 100 | 388 | 105 | 0.271 | 10 | 56 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.265 | 0.317 | 0.393 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | DH | 96 | 329 | 88 | 0.267 | 19 | 62 | 0.368 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.303 | 0.392 | 0.563 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 61 | 175 | 54 | 0.309 | 4 | 28 | 0.388 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.250 | 0.330 | 0.447 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 14 | 43 | 11 | 0.256 | 0 | 10 | 0.340 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.351 | 0.419 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 34 | 108 | 31 | 0.287 | 2 | 15 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.310 | 0.408 | 0.421 | OK |
| David Hamilton | 3B | 72 | 218 | 51 | 0.234 | 3 | 15 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.234 | 0.296 | 0.326 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 108 | 426 | 98 | 0.230 | 19 | 46 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.263 | 0.320 | OK |
| Mike Trout | DH | 92 | 331 | 81 | 0.245 | 18 | 40 | 0.392 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.368 | 0.415 | OK |
| Nolan Schanuel | 1B | 90 | 337 | 93 | 0.276 | 6 | 37 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.280 | 0.305 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 2B | 67 | 238 | 62 | 0.261 | 7 | 45 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.300 | 0.412 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 110 | 421 | 101 | 0.240 | 16 | 62 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.191 | 0.220 | 0.321 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 48 | 146 | 43 | 0.295 | 2 | 17 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.266 | 0.322 | 0.366 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 37 | 142 | 34 | 0.239 | 5 | 16 | 0.285 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.250 | 0.339 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | CF | 63 | 190 | 38 | 0.200 | 8 | 22 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.182 | 0.239 | 0.311 | OK |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 11 | 34 | 8 | 0.235 | 0 | 2 | 0.297 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.147 | 0.190 | 0.266 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Misiorowski | Starter | 20 | 119.3 | 1.58 | 0.754 | 14.0 | 185 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 94 | 6.1 | 9 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | Middle Reliever | 42 | 41.1 | 1.97 | 0.900 | 10.9 | 50 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Middle Reliever | 45 | 40.6 | 2.44 | 1.133 | 9.8 | 44 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever | 51 | 54.6 | 4.29 | 1.612 | 13.7 | 83 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Walbert Urena | Starter | 19 | 91.7 | 2.75 | 1.287 | 8.6 | 88 | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 99 | 6.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever | 44 | 45.8 | 4.13 | 1.310 | 14.0 | 71 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Bachman | Middle Reliever | 40 | 40.2 | 4.70 | 1.493 | 10.3 | 46 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kirby Yates | Middle Reliever | 30 | 25.0 | 3.96 | 1.240 | 13.0 | 36 | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 1.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Samy Natera Jr. | Middle Reliever | 19 | 20.4 | 2.65 | 0.980 | 15.9 | 36 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
MIL wins 5-1
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.2411; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 89 | 289 | 82 | 0.284 | 9 | 38 | 0.367 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.239 | 0.316 | 0.442 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 48 | 171 | 50 | 0.292 | 10 | 36 | 0.387 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.282 | 0.359 | 0.478 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 107 | 392 | 95 | 0.242 | 13 | 63 | 0.303 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.288 | 0.366 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 96 | 356 | 85 | 0.239 | 19 | 53 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.284 | 0.476 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 77 | 277 | 60 | 0.217 | 11 | 34 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.303 | 0.419 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 104 | 394 | 97 | 0.246 | 16 | 57 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.241 | 0.291 | 0.422 | OK |
| Alan Roden | RF | 16 | 39 | 8 | 0.205 | 0 | 7 | 0.289 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.304 | 0.275 | OK |
| Luke Keaschall | CF | 103 | 346 | 90 | 0.260 | 5 | 32 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.342 | 0.375 | OK |
| Ryan Kreidler | SS | 61 | 172 | 42 | 0.244 | 5 | 25 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.292 | 0.415 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Cole Young | 2B | 112 | 408 | 107 | 0.262 | 14 | 50 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.289 | 0.325 | 0.448 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 104 | 382 | 108 | 0.283 | 14 | 49 | 0.378 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.352 | 0.507 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 95 | 279 | 72 | 0.258 | 18 | 49 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.327 | 0.542 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 100 | 397 | 100 | 0.252 | 16 | 47 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.290 | 0.418 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 105 | 410 | 107 | 0.261 | 8 | 38 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.263 | 0.316 | 0.337 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 79 | 291 | 47 | 0.162 | 11 | 40 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.143 | 0.235 | 0.280 | OK |
| Victor Robles | RF | 38 | 111 | 27 | 0.243 | 0 | 5 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.271 | 0.300 | OK |
| Colt Emerson | SS | 59 | 191 | 37 | 0.194 | 7 | 21 | 0.254 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.192 | 0.241 | 0.287 | OK |
| Leo Rivas | 3B | 35 | 99 | 13 | 0.131 | 0 | 7 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.080 | 0.199 | 0.133 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Taj Bradley | Starter | 21 | 118.8 | 3.71 | 1.229 | 10.5 | 139 | 6.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 104 | 6.0 | 5 | 4 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Middle Reliever | 36 | 28.6 | 1.89 | 1.224 | 10.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Morris | Middle Reliever | 42 | 45.9 | 3.73 | 1.438 | 10.0 | 51 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Nance | Middle Reliever | 8 | 6.5 | 2.77 | 1.692 | 11.1 | 8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| George Kirby | Starter | 20 | 117.9 | 4.05 | 1.323 | 8.2 | 107 | 6.0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 107 | 6.0 | 5 | 5 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Middle Reliever | 41 | 37.8 | 3.57 | 1.217 | 14.5 | 61 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Middle Reliever | 49 | 40.1 | 3.37 | 1.471 | 8.3 | 37 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever | 51 | 41.2 | 3.50 | 1.481 | 10.9 | 50 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIN wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.0495; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trent Grisham | CF | 86 | 301 | 64 | 0.213 | 10 | 41 | 0.312 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.154 | 0.257 | 0.284 | OK |
| Ben Rice | 1B | 103 | 386 | 104 | 0.269 | 30 | 69 | 0.361 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.145 | 0.247 | 0.329 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | DH | 62 | 174 | 41 | 0.236 | 10 | 27 | 0.270 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.239 | 0.272 | 0.451 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | LF | 35 | 93 | 23 | 0.247 | 5 | 13 | 0.327 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.332 | 0.497 | OK |
| Jasson Domínguez | RF | 48 | 184 | 43 | 0.234 | 6 | 14 | 0.273 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.211 | 0.244 | 0.348 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 100 | 357 | 80 | 0.224 | 16 | 45 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.292 | 0.388 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 80 | 230 | 48 | 0.209 | 9 | 26 | 0.266 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.117 | 0.169 | 0.242 | OK |
| José Caballero | SS | 93 | 312 | 75 | 0.240 | 10 | 38 | 0.292 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.269 | 0.313 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 75 | 216 | 35 | 0.162 | 7 | 14 | 0.260 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.139 | 0.235 | 0.262 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 109 | 409 | 117 | 0.286 | 24 | 64 | 0.383 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.343 | 0.565 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 93 | 350 | 96 | 0.274 | 18 | 61 | 0.367 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.346 | 0.442 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 108 | 409 | 99 | 0.242 | 12 | 57 | 0.355 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.312 | 0.339 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 107 | 422 | 106 | 0.251 | 11 | 47 | 0.346 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.357 | 0.417 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 104 | 389 | 85 | 0.219 | 18 | 48 | 0.327 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.315 | 0.391 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 107 | 429 | 111 | 0.259 | 6 | 51 | 0.317 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.353 | 0.461 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | DH | 34 | 91 | 30 | 0.330 | 1 | 14 | 0.380 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.334 | 0.388 | 0.471 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 103 | 355 | 75 | 0.211 | 14 | 54 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.196 | 0.274 | 0.314 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 49 | 152 | 37 | 0.243 | 3 | 18 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.294 | 0.363 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 35 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Starter | 12 | 66.6 | 3.65 | 1.111 | 9.9 | 73 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 121 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 |
| David Bednar | Middle Reliever | 44 | 44.2 | 2.85 | 1.131 | 10.8 | 53 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | Middle Reliever | 52 | 34.5 | 3.91 | 1.855 | 15.1 | 58 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Middle Reliever | 56 | 45.4 | 1.78 | 1.366 | 12.9 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Colin Rea | Starter | 22 | 107.7 | 4.85 | 1.448 | 6.9 | 83 | 5.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 102 | 5.1 | 5 | 4 |
| Jacob Webb | Middle Reliever | 49 | 44.0 | 2.86 | 1.386 | 11.5 | 56 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Thornton | Middle Reliever | 30 | 30.3 | 2.97 | 1.254 | 4.5 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Caleb Thielbar | Middle Reliever | 38 | 28.4 | 4.44 | 1.373 | 13.6 | 43 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ryan Rolison | Middle Reliever | 38 | 33.7 | 3.20 | 1.632 | 11.5 | 43 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Ferguson | Middle Reliever | 14 | 11.7 | 4.62 | 0.940 | 12.3 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
NYY wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| BAL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.1892; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trea Turner | SS | 105 | 441 | 111 | 0.252 | 16 | 43 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.279 | 0.411 | OK |
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 103 | 389 | 96 | 0.247 | 32 | 61 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.337 | 0.406 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | 1B | 109 | 389 | 99 | 0.254 | 22 | 65 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.373 | 0.509 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 3B | 105 | 395 | 88 | 0.223 | 13 | 59 | 0.282 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.262 | 0.326 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 104 | 386 | 108 | 0.280 | 16 | 49 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.263 | 0.341 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 79 | 269 | 60 | 0.223 | 8 | 37 | 0.300 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.283 | 0.380 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 104 | 364 | 92 | 0.253 | 8 | 48 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.329 | 0.426 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 97 | 296 | 74 | 0.250 | 2 | 24 | 0.299 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.285 | 0.318 | OK |
| Bryan De La Cruz | RF | 7 | 18 | 9 | 0.500 | 1 | 3 | 0.500 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.440 | 0.468 | 0.635 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 53 | 167 | 42 | 0.251 | 2 | 17 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.322 | 0.357 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 108 | 406 | 102 | 0.251 | 23 | 69 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.327 | 0.478 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 107 | 443 | 97 | 0.219 | 17 | 46 | 0.291 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.291 | 0.374 | OK |
| Taylor Ward | DH | 107 | 398 | 98 | 0.246 | 7 | 29 | 0.383 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.368 | 0.319 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 55 | 156 | 39 | 0.250 | 5 | 20 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.330 | 0.410 | 0.447 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | 9 | 32 | 8 | 0.250 | 2 | 9 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.314 | 0.378 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | RF | 90 | 292 | 64 | 0.219 | 5 | 39 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.279 | 0.325 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 85 | 216 | 45 | 0.208 | 7 | 25 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.324 | 0.321 | OK |
| Jake Rogers | C | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.152 | 0.257 | 0.301 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Wheeler | Starter | 17 | 101.6 | 2.57 | 0.935 | 10.9 | 123 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 105 | 6.0 | 8 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 38 | 35.4 | 1.53 | 0.932 | 13.5 | 53 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 45 | 37.1 | 3.88 | 1.456 | 11.2 | 46 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Middle Reliever | 41 | 34.7 | 3.37 | 1.124 | 12.4 | 48 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Bradish | Starter | 21 | 115.2 | 3.83 | 1.398 | 8.9 | 114 | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 102 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Middle Reliever | 37 | 27.6 | 4.57 | 1.667 | 9.1 | 28 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever | 43 | 50.5 | 2.85 | 1.030 | 9.4 | 53 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever | 48 | 30.9 | 2.33 | 1.003 | 9.3 | 32 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
PHI wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: -1.0256; margin adjustment: -0.4308; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake Mangum | LF | 78 | 280 | 87 | 0.311 | 3 | 23 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.314 | 0.345 | 0.405 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 100 | 397 | 101 | 0.254 | 23 | 71 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.297 | 0.353 | 0.536 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | DH | 109 | 398 | 108 | 0.271 | 15 | 62 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.264 | 0.369 | 0.444 | OK |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | RF | 40 | 130 | 34 | 0.262 | 11 | 30 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.247 | 0.359 | 0.550 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 102 | 392 | 122 | 0.311 | 4 | 48 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.309 | 0.338 | OK |
| Endy Rodríguez | C | 38 | 116 | 30 | 0.259 | 5 | 17 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.336 | 0.411 | OK |
| Jacob Gonzalez | SS | 11 | 27 | 4 | 0.148 | 0 | 2 | 0.143 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.263 | 0.305 | OK |
| Jhostynxon Garcia | CF | 13 | 42 | 8 | 0.190 | 0 | 2 | 0.227 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.195 | 0.219 | 0.241 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 70 | 218 | 53 | 0.243 | 1 | 18 | 0.321 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.325 | 0.309 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 90 | 358 | 100 | 0.279 | 18 | 48 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.245 | 0.326 | 0.458 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 109 | 413 | 106 | 0.257 | 23 | 84 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.312 | 0.424 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 80 | 289 | 66 | 0.228 | 19 | 46 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.295 | 0.422 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 82 | 262 | 66 | 0.252 | 8 | 30 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.388 | 0.458 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | DH | 77 | 240 | 62 | 0.258 | 11 | 34 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.317 | 0.436 | OK |
| Dane Myers | CF | 64 | 154 | 43 | 0.279 | 3 | 15 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 0.374 | 0.398 | OK |
| Noelvi Marte | RF | 49 | 164 | 32 | 0.195 | 6 | 14 | 0.233 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.203 | 0.233 | 0.320 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 81 | 278 | 53 | 0.191 | 8 | 25 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.175 | 0.265 | 0.289 | OK |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 47 | 149 | 21 | 0.141 | 3 | 6 | 0.195 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.085 | 0.137 | 0.169 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mitch Keller | Starter | 21 | 111.8 | 4.91 | 1.333 | 7.0 | 87 | 5.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 91 | 5.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever | 46 | 43.3 | 3.33 | 1.039 | 11.0 | 53 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mason Montgomery | Middle Reliever | 45 | 38.0 | 4.03 | 1.368 | 16.3 | 69 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever | 45 | 52.4 | 3.44 | 1.508 | 11.3 | 66 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chase Burns | Starter | 20 | 111.5 | 2.42 | 1.130 | 10.3 | 128 | 6.0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 96 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Emilio Pagán | Middle Reliever | 24 | 22.4 | 4.82 | 1.205 | 10.4 | 26 | 1.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Tejay Antone | Middle Reliever | 34 | 29.9 | 2.41 | 1.070 | 9.3 | 31 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever | 55 | 45.2 | 2.99 | 1.527 | 9.0 | 45 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
PIT wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | x | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.4021; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 103 | 408 | 135 | 0.331 | 4 | 42 | 0.368 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.322 | 0.353 | 0.422 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | DH | 69 | 242 | 61 | 0.252 | 11 | 26 | 0.350 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.240 | 0.322 | 0.436 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | LF | 72 | 280 | 72 | 0.257 | 9 | 34 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.295 | 0.384 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | 1B | 110 | 414 | 104 | 0.251 | 21 | 60 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.347 | 0.451 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 99 | 375 | 113 | 0.301 | 5 | 38 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.276 | 0.360 | OK |
| Willy Adames | SS | 105 | 405 | 91 | 0.225 | 17 | 45 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.198 | 0.261 | 0.337 | OK |
| Drew Cavanaugh | C | 21 | 49 | 12 | 0.245 | 0 | 3 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.365 | 0.341 | OK |
| Drew Gilbert | CF | 79 | 220 | 54 | 0.245 | 4 | 21 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.319 | 0.368 | OK |
| Osleivis Basabe | 3B | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0.333 | 1 | 4 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.309 | 0.320 | 0.859 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luis Rengifo | LF | 14 | 44 | 16 | 0.364 | 2 | 8 | 0.472 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.335 | 0.333 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | 58 | 191 | 41 | 0.215 | 3 | 14 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.321 | 0.324 | OK |
| Manny Machado | DH | 108 | 400 | 85 | 0.212 | 23 | 65 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.308 | 0.424 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 79 | 265 | 78 | 0.294 | 16 | 49 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.332 | 0.365 | 0.526 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 107 | 419 | 98 | 0.234 | 15 | 50 | 0.284 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.252 | 0.290 | 0.414 | OK |
| Luis Campusano | C | 35 | 98 | 30 | 0.306 | 4 | 15 | 0.404 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.319 | 0.399 | 0.484 | OK |
| Gavin Sheets | RF | 103 | 314 | 67 | 0.213 | 14 | 43 | 0.312 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.311 | 0.368 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 105 | 366 | 81 | 0.221 | 9 | 40 | 0.314 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.237 | 0.321 | 0.315 | OK |
| Sung-Mun Song | 3B | 39 | 99 | 21 | 0.212 | 1 | 15 | 0.310 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.130 | 0.232 | 0.191 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Landen Roupp | Starter | 21 | 110.4 | 4.24 | 1.295 | 9.3 | 114 | 5.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 96 | 5.1 | 6 | 3 |
| Erik Miller | Middle Reliever | 36 | 27.9 | 2.90 | 1.505 | 14.5 | 45 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Caleb Kilian | Middle Reliever | 44 | 39.2 | 4.13 | 1.403 | 12.2 | 53 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kyle Hart | Starter | 28 | 36.7 | 5.40 | 1.226 | 8.8 | 36 | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 90 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Middle Reliever | 45 | 44.3 | 0.81 | 0.858 | 17.9 | 88 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Middle Reliever | 51 | 51.2 | 3.52 | 1.250 | 11.8 | 67 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | Middle Reliever | 23 | 19.2 | 4.69 | 1.406 | 12.7 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever | 31 | 35.6 | 2.78 | 1.376 | 11.4 | 45 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
SD wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| TOR | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.3333; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lars Nootbaar | RF | 47 | 153 | 36 | 0.235 | 3 | 15 | 0.337 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.223 | 0.322 | 0.328 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | DH | 107 | 413 | 117 | 0.283 | 20 | 74 | 0.344 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.318 | 0.434 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 108 | 414 | 119 | 0.287 | 15 | 70 | 0.349 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.286 | 0.348 | 0.445 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | C | 108 | 403 | 96 | 0.238 | 11 | 44 | 0.354 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.302 | 0.364 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 100 | 366 | 89 | 0.243 | 4 | 45 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.244 | 0.317 | 0.324 | OK |
| Bryan Torres | LF | 32 | 75 | 18 | 0.240 | 3 | 11 | 0.288 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.297 | 0.424 | OK |
| José Fermín | 2B | 70 | 192 | 47 | 0.245 | 5 | 22 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.281 | 0.347 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 84 | 274 | 63 | 0.230 | 8 | 30 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.226 | 0.260 | 0.321 | OK |
| Blaze Jordan | 3B | 36 | 121 | 29 | 0.240 | 1 | 22 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.267 | 0.351 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luis Urías | 2B | 19 | 45 | 11 | 0.244 | 3 | 7 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.321 | 0.414 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | DH | 104 | 390 | 104 | 0.267 | 6 | 44 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.334 | 0.364 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 1B | 107 | 394 | 90 | 0.228 | 24 | 69 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.237 | 0.293 | 0.459 | OK |
| George Springer | LF | 80 | 310 | 74 | 0.239 | 12 | 36 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.252 | 0.330 | 0.425 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 36 | 123 | 29 | 0.236 | 3 | 14 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.340 | 0.370 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 3B | 108 | 418 | 122 | 0.292 | 8 | 35 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.276 | 0.302 | 0.398 | OK |
| Myles Straw | RF | 78 | 174 | 38 | 0.218 | 3 | 16 | 0.266 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.212 | 0.258 | 0.320 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 91 | 330 | 81 | 0.245 | 7 | 26 | 0.307 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.240 | 0.300 | 0.371 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 99 | 324 | 75 | 0.231 | 7 | 40 | 0.276 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.147 | 0.171 | 0.235 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 30 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 21 | 99.4 | 5.43 | 1.610 | 9.1 | 100 | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 86 | 5.0 | 4 | 4 |
| Riley O'Brien | Middle Reliever | 44 | 41.8 | 3.66 | 1.244 | 9.9 | 46 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| George Soriano | Middle Reliever | 49 | 41.7 | 3.88 | 1.319 | 9.9 | 46 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever | 46 | 35.8 | 4.78 | 1.648 | 11.3 | 45 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Max Scherzer | Starter | 7 | 23.5 | 9.96 | 1.915 | 6.9 | 18 | 4.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 82 | 4.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | Middle Reliever | 50 | 52.5 | 1.03 | 1.029 | 12.5 | 73 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Middle Reliever | 51 | 45.5 | 1.78 | 1.187 | 5.3 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Middle Reliever | 51 | 43.1 | 4.39 | 1.531 | 15.7 | 75 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever | 30 | 64.4 | 3.49 | 1.196 | 9.5 | 68 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
TOR wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | x | 5 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.0317; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 99 | 290 | 74 | 0.255 | 20 | 42 | 0.342 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.371 | 0.585 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 59 | 240 | 66 | 0.275 | 13 | 31 | 0.318 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.230 | 0.267 | 0.452 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 52 | 193 | 37 | 0.192 | 10 | 25 | 0.301 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.224 | 0.334 | 0.427 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 105 | 401 | 107 | 0.267 | 10 | 39 | 0.335 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.227 | 0.291 | 0.375 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 106 | 392 | 92 | 0.235 | 19 | 66 | 0.294 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.140 | 0.196 | 0.271 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 91 | 258 | 53 | 0.205 | 8 | 29 | 0.318 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.343 | 0.350 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 3B | 100 | 350 | 93 | 0.266 | 12 | 57 | 0.319 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.296 | 0.412 | OK |
| Elias Díaz | C | 32 | 98 | 25 | 0.255 | 3 | 13 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.246 | 0.466 | OK |
| Cameron Cauley | 2B | 19 | 44 | 10 | 0.227 | 1 | 1 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.278 | 0.397 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | DH | 63 | 251 | 80 | 0.319 | 12 | 34 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.332 | 0.368 | 0.558 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | LF | 109 | 394 | 129 | 0.327 | 35 | 82 | 0.442 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.335 | 0.455 | 0.637 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 104 | 380 | 96 | 0.253 | 15 | 60 | 0.351 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.251 | 0.333 | 0.434 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 107 | 396 | 95 | 0.240 | 22 | 64 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.266 | 0.329 | 0.489 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | CF | 51 | 143 | 34 | 0.238 | 5 | 16 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.305 | 0.430 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 87 | 339 | 78 | 0.230 | 12 | 30 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.227 | 0.290 | 0.340 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 103 | 362 | 75 | 0.207 | 13 | 37 | 0.280 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.252 | 0.346 | OK |
| Nick Allen | SS | 42 | 98 | 26 | 0.265 | 1 | 11 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.256 | 0.282 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 65 | 194 | 42 | 0.216 | 5 | 23 | 0.268 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.217 | 0.268 | 0.347 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.324 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kumar Rocker | Starter | 20 | 99.4 | 4.16 | 1.328 | 8.4 | 93 | 5.1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 97 | 5.1 | 4 | 4 |
| Jacob Latz | Middle Reliever | 39 | 47.2 | 1.33 | 0.614 | 9.7 | 51 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Peyton Gray | Middle Reliever | 35 | 37.2 | 3.87 | 1.371 | 10.9 | 45 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Peter Lambert | Starter | 18 | 100.9 | 3.12 | 1.169 | 8.9 | 100 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 109 | 5.2 | 6 | 1 |
| Josh Hader | Middle Reliever | 24 | 22.3 | 0.81 | 0.762 | 13.7 | 34 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | Middle Reliever | 54 | 47.2 | 2.48 | 0.975 | 10.7 | 56 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever | 41 | 35.5 | 5.07 | 1.549 | 12.4 | 49 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever | 49 | 44.8 | 5.02 | 1.362 | 10.0 | 50 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
HOU wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | x | 6 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.8884; margin adjustment: 0.3731; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 112 | 430 | 115 | 0.267 | 30 | 72 | 0.397 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.208 | 0.343 | 0.431 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 104 | 357 | 101 | 0.283 | 23 | 76 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.294 | 0.544 | OK |
| José Tena | DH | 79 | 194 | 48 | 0.247 | 5 | 20 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.223 | 0.301 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 108 | 404 | 117 | 0.290 | 28 | 85 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.330 | 0.504 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | CF | 59 | 223 | 51 | 0.229 | 9 | 25 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.234 | 0.293 | 0.406 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 110 | 421 | 104 | 0.247 | 13 | 54 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.165 | 0.215 | 0.346 | OK |
| Nasim Nuñez | 2B | 97 | 313 | 75 | 0.240 | 1 | 31 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.170 | 0.255 | 0.214 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 3B | 75 | 200 | 48 | 0.240 | 3 | 17 | 0.317 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.139 | 0.215 | 0.222 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 70 | 232 | 60 | 0.259 | 7 | 36 | 0.289 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.230 | 0.342 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | C | 88 | 338 | 94 | 0.278 | 20 | 57 | 0.370 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.264 | 0.334 | 0.436 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | DH | 59 | 217 | 52 | 0.240 | 9 | 24 | 0.363 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.234 | 0.344 | 0.429 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 111 | 430 | 113 | 0.263 | 30 | 68 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.244 | 0.317 | 0.598 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 105 | 402 | 117 | 0.291 | 20 | 64 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.275 | 0.462 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 111 | 431 | 114 | 0.265 | 18 | 62 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.266 | 0.308 | 0.410 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 106 | 397 | 104 | 0.262 | 10 | 55 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.302 | 0.370 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | RF | 91 | 248 | 57 | 0.230 | 7 | 29 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.312 | 0.420 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 110 | 396 | 85 | 0.215 | 12 | 52 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.278 | 0.336 | OK |
| Jim Jarvis | SS | 25 | 77 | 21 | 0.273 | 1 | 10 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.272 | 0.319 | 0.396 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cade Cavalli | Starter | 23 | 114.1 | 3.63 | 1.323 | 10.3 | 130 | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 99 | 5.1 | 7 | 1 |
| Clayton Beeter | Middle Reliever | 33 | 29.4 | 3.37 | 1.293 | 10.4 | 34 | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 53 | 2.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Middle Reliever | 34 | 28.4 | 4.12 | 1.373 | 9.8 | 31 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| JR Ritchie | Starter | 13 | 52.6 | 4.62 | 1.445 | 8.4 | 49 | 4.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 80 | 4.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Middle Reliever | 38 | 37.6 | 2.39 | 1.090 | 10.3 | 43 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Middle Reliever | 51 | 43.7 | 2.47 | 0.824 | 12.6 | 61 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever | 37 | 40.1 | 2.92 | 1.322 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 |
ATL wins 6-3