Deep slate report 20260925

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260925.json	430396
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260925.json	270890
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and official starter comparisons	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260925.json	2702444
detailed report	loaded	full game and simulation rendering	/app/output/reports/detailed_20260925.html	401370
ultra detailed player audit	loaded	player-level prediction trace	/app/output/reports/20260925_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html	36816082
structural audit	loaded	all invariant findings	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260925.html	2081387
integrity revision audit	missing	post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260925_integrity_revision.html	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (17)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
HIGH	artifact_integrity	Blocking canonical artifact error structural audit totals: {'critical': 0, 'error': 1, 'warning': 0, 'info': 124}	20260925_LAD@SF	Do thisExclude this slate from parameter learning until the artifact-generation step that wrote the broken file is fixed. Don't concludeA malformed artifact is a file bug, not proof the prediction model was wrong; do not blame accuracy changes on it.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0104/0.0304/0.0058	ARI@SD, ATL@MIA, BAL@NYY, BAL@NYY, CHC@BOS, CHC@BOS, CIN@TOR, CLE@KC, COL@CHW, HOU@OAK, LAA@SEA, LAD@SF, NYM@WAS, PIT@DET, STL@MIL, TB@PHI, TEX@MIN	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 17/17 games structurally audited	ARI@SD, ATL@MIA, BAL@NYY, BAL@NYY, CHC@BOS, CHC@BOS, CIN@TOR, CLE@KC, COL@CHW, HOU@OAK, LAA@SEA, LAD@SF, NYM@WAS, PIT@DET, STL@MIL, TB@PHI, TEX@MIN	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	probability_lineage	Material calibrated-to-published movements have recorded lineage 4 material movement(s), all explained by named score-coherence and/or recency transformations	ATL@MIA, BAL@NYY, CLE@KC, LAD@SF	Do thisKeep showing every probability layer and the named transformation between them. Don't concludeA published probability above the calibrated one is not a governor bypass when a recorded transformation explains it.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	ARI@SD, ATL@MIA, BAL@NYY, BAL@NYY, CHC@BOS, CHC@BOS, CIN@TOR, CLE@KC, COL@CHW, HOU@OAK, LAA@SEA, LAD@SF, NYM@WAS, PIT@DET, STL@MIL, TB@PHI, TEX@MIN	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	11 consecutive · 11 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	11 consecutive · 11 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	3/11	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	0	6/11	no	code/diagnostic
simulation_inert_on_slate	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	0	7/11	no	param
weak_run_model_signal	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	improving	[0.4, 0.6667, 0.4444, 0.6667, 0.7333, 0.6, 0.3333, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6667, 0.6471]
weighted_calibration_error	improving	[0.2795, 0.1661, 0.1016, 0.1247, 0.3458, 0.3184, 0.2028, 0.1881, 0.1108, 0.1701, 0.1302]
margin_bias	regressing	[-1.667, -1.133, -2.111, -2.0, -0.667, -1.533, -2.667, -1.867, -1.188, -1.083, -1.706]
team_run_error_on_losses	flat	[5.556, 6.4, 3.6, 5.2, 6.5, 6.5, 3.0, 6.222, 5.75, 3.5, 5.333]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	12/17	70.6%	2.613	4.399	2.865
variance_applied	10/17	58.8%	2.588	4.471	2.824
enhanced_prediction	11/17	64.7%	2.706	4.588	2.706
embedded_savant_run_environment	10/17	58.8%	2.735	4.647	2.765
fundamental_edge_target_review	11/17	64.7%	2.735	4.647	2.765
capped_target	11/17	64.7%	2.735	4.647	2.765
simulation_result	11/17	64.7%	2.735	4.647	2.765
published_final	11/17	64.7%	2.735	4.647	2.765

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.1177	-2	-0.0247	-0.0411	ARI@SD: SD → TIE; LAA@SEA: LAA → TIE; NYM@WAS: WAS → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.0589	1	0.1177	-0.1176	ARI@SD: TIE → ARI; BAL@NYY: BAL → NYY; BAL@NYY: BAL → NYY; CHC@BOS: BOS → CHC; LAA@SEA: TIE → LAA; NYM@WAS: TIE → WAS; PIT@DET: DET → PIT
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	-0.0589	-1	0.0294	0.0588	BAL@NYY: NYY → TIE; BAL@NYY: NYY → TIE
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0589	1	0	0	BAL@NYY: TIE → NYY; BAL@NYY: TIE → NYY
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
ARI@SD	hit	0.5	0.5073	0.5073	0.5073	0.5053	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
ATL@MIA	miss	0.5639	0.5608	0.5608	0.5608	0.5344	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
BAL@NYY	miss	0.5	0.505	0.505	0.505	0.505	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
BAL@NYY	hit	0.5	0.5613	0.5613	0.5613	0.5116	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHC@BOS	miss	0.5	0.505	0.505	0.505	0.505	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
CHC@BOS	hit	0.5734	0.5671	0.5671	0.5671	0.557	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
CIN@TOR	hit	0.6693	0.6358	0.6358	0.6358	0.6358	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
CLE@KC	hit	0.5711	0.6175	0.6175	0.5958	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
COL@CHW	hit	0.7841	0.723	0.723	0.723	0.723	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
HOU@OAK	miss	0.5644	0.5546	0.5546	0.5546	0.5394	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAA@SEA	hit	0.5399	0.5249	0.5249	0.5249	0.518	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAD@SF	hit	0.6683	0.6372	0.6372	0.6372	0.5661	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYM@WAS	hit	0.5265	0.5176	0.5176	0.5176	0.5127	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
PIT@DET	miss	0.5	0.5073	0.5073	0.5073	0.505	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
STL@MIL	hit	0.5537	0.5585	0.5585	0.5585	0.5423	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TB@PHI	miss	0.5494	0.5409	0.5409	0.5409	0.5347	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
TEX@MIN	hit	0.5613	0.5497	0.5497	0.5497	0.5423	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
34	8	10	2	14	1.13	0.5

Game	Trained p(home)	Blended p(home)	Blend favoured	Published p(home)	Published side	Artifact says winner changed	Outcome
ARI@SD	0.563	0.528	home	0.495	away	yes	hit
BAL@NYY	0.281	0.386	away	0.505	home	yes	miss
BAL@NYY	0.374	0.472	away	0.512	home	yes	hit
CHC@BOS	0.644	0.572	home	0.495	away	yes	miss
PIT@DET	0.655	0.575	home	0.495	away	yes	miss

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260924	12	0.667	1.68	-0.67	4	11
20260923	16	0.500	-0.49	-0.91	4	11
20260922	15	0.400	-0.32	-0.97	3	11
20260921	3	0.333	-1.08	-0.50
20260920	15	0.600	-0.89	-1.00	2	10
20260919	15	0.733	1.36	-0.10	8	7
20260918	15	0.667	3.95	0.30	6	5
20260917	9	0.444	2.16	-0.22	2	3
20260916	15	0.667	2.09	-0.23	4	5
20260915	15	0.400	-1.58	-0.70	1	12
20260914	10	0.700	-0.48	-0.20	2	6
20260913	15	0.600	-0.07	0.03	2	8

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
ARI@SD	1	7	-6
ATL@MIA	1	3	-2
BAL@NYY	1	8	-7
BAL@NYY	1	3	-2
CHC@BOS	1	1	0
CHC@BOS	1	2	-1
CIN@TOR	2	1	1
CLE@KC	1	3	-2
COL@CHW	5	5	0
HOU@OAK	1	1	0
LAA@SEA	1	2	-1
LAD@SF	4	2	2
NYM@WAS	1	1	0
PIT@DET	1	1	0
STL@MIL	1	4	-3
TB@PHI	1	2	-1
TEX@MIN	1	8	-7

ARI@SDHIT

Predicted: ARI 6-5 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: ARI 11-4Brier 0.245total bias -4

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.266, recent +0.270, pitcher -0.066, composite -0.112
confidence pipeline reached 0.507 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.495
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (11 vs 15)
ARI offense under-projected by 5
Casey Mize (SD) allowed 4 more ER than projected (7 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	5 ER / 18 outs	4 ER / 23 outs	-1
SD	Casey Mize	3 ER / 14 outs	7 ER / 12 outs	4

Decision internals: run factors home×1.015 / away×1.081; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Geraldo Perdomo (ARI SS): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Lars Nootbaar (ARI LF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Corbin Carroll (ARI RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Manny Machado (SD DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Xander Bogaerts (SD SS): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.61]

Starter miss: Casey Mize (SD) posted 15.75 ERA vs projected 5.79 (7 ER in 12 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.08, bucket average).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) at a projected 7.5 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Xander Bogaerts: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.322, above average - real projection error
Dustin Harris: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Casey Mize (SD) threw 12 outs, 7 ER = 15.75 ERA against a projected 5.79 ERA (9.96 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 7 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (6 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Geraldo Perdomo: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 4 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error
Lars Nootbaar: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.339, above average - real projection error
Gabriel Moreno: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.49 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.362, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material. exp BB and exp SO are the continuous rate expectations. The integer beside each is a simulation draw reconciled to the opposing simulated batting box, so it is not the line that ranks pitchers: on the 2026-09-07 slate the integers published 39 walks and 121 strikeouts against 51 and 130 real, while these expectations landed on 50.4 and 132.6.)

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SD	Casey Mize (Starter)	12 / 14	15.75 / 5.79 (+9.96)	7 / 3	7 / 5	3 / 1	2 / 2	1.76	1 / 7	3.24	venue home: 3.71 vs 4.2 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.08 (average) · 25 prior appearances this season
SD	Jason Adam (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	9 / 9	1 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.19	0 / 2	0.58

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Geraldo Perdomo (SS)	ARI	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	1.73	0.328 above average	projection too low
Lars Nootbaar (LF)	ARI	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1.26	0.339 above average	projection too low
Corbin Carroll (RF)	ARI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.344 elite	bad day
Manny Machado (DH)	SD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.329 above average	bad day
Xander Bogaerts (SS)	SD	2 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.61	0.322 above average	projection too low
Gabriel Moreno (C)	ARI	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.49	0.362 elite	—
Samad Taylor (LF)	SD	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.31 average	—
Ty France (1B)	SD	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.45	0.33 above average	—
Nolan Arenado (3B)	ARI	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.297 below average	—
Tim Tawa (1B)	ARI	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.31 average	—
Dustin Harris (RF)	SD	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.305 average	—
Luis Campusano (C)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.328 above average	—
Fernando Tatis Jr. (2B)	SD	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.15	0.38 elite	—
Ketel Marte (2B)	ARI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.345 elite	—
Pavin Smith (DH)	ARI	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.288 below average	—
Jackson Merrill (CF)	SD	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.347 elite	—
Jake Cronenworth (3B)	SD	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.271 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.266	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.27	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.066	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.112	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.15-4.4	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.15-4.4	4-4	0.253	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	6-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SD	Samad Taylor	batter / LF	better	predicted_H 2.06
ARI	Corbin Carroll	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.039
SD	Dustin Harris	batter / RF	better	predicted_3B 1.919
ARI	Gabriel Moreno	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 1.91
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr.	batter / 2B	better	predicted_2B 1.8
ARI	Jordan Lawlar	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 1.69
ARI	Geraldo Perdomo	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 1.53
SD	Manny Machado	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 1.439

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11).	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Pavin Smith: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=5).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Luis Campusano: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ty France: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	SD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

ATL@MIAMISS

Predicted: ATL 5-4 (conf -0.07, lean)Actual: MIA 0-3Brier 0.286total bias +6

Root cause: Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.07 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.534, recent -0.294, pitcher -0.036, composite -0.626
confidence pipeline reached 0.561 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.466
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 6 (9 vs 3)
ATL offense over-projected by 5

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ATL	Ray Kerr	0 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	0
MIA	Eury Pérez	1 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 27 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×1.036; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Griffin Conine (MIA RF): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Heriberto Hernández (MIA LF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Joe Mack (MIA C): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Drake Baldwin (ATL DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Ray Kerr (ATL) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (0 ERA error) only 8 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 10 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Griffin Conine: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.358, elite - real projection error
Joe Mack: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.285, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jakob Marsee: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Eury Pérez (MIA) threw 27 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (-1.8 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 1 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Sean Murphy: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.264, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
ATL	Ray Kerr (Starter)	9 / 15	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 3	0	0 / 5	3.97	opp run factor 1 (average) · 8 prior appearances this season
ATL	Didier Fuentes (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	18 / 13.5 (+4.50)	2 / 2	5 / 2	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.34	0 / 0	1.58
MIA	Eury Pérez (Starter)	27 / 15	0 / 1.8	0 / 1	1 / 5	0 / 1	1 / 2	2.8	8 / 6	5.15	venue home: 3.45 vs 4.86 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (strong) · 29 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Griffin Conine (RF)	MIA	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.73	0.358 elite	projection too low
Matt Olson (1B)	ATL	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-1.4	0.353 elite	bad day
Heriberto Hernández (LF)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.26	0.344 elite	bad day
Joe Mack (C)	MIA	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.26	0.285 below average	good day
Drake Baldwin (DH)	ATL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.371 elite	bad day
Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)	ATL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.37 elite	bad day
Michael Harris II (CF)	ATL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.342 elite	bad day
Jakob Marsee (CF)	MIA	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.76	0.312 average	no signal
Mauricio Dubón (SS)	ATL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.303 average	—
Ozzie Albies (2B)	ATL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.276 weak	—
Austin Riley (3B)	ATL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.302 below average	—
Sean Murphy (C)	ATL	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.264 weak	—
Mike Yastrzemski (LF)	ATL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Otto Lopez (SS)	MIA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.328 above average	—
Javier Sanoja (3B)	MIA	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.16	0.293 below average	—
Deyvison De Los Santos (1B)	MIA	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.165 weak	—
Jared Serna (2B)	MIA	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.206 weak	—
Agustín Ramírez (DH)	MIA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.283 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.534	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.294	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.036	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.626	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.8-4.07	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.8-4.07	5-4	0.269	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIA	Agustín Ramírez	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.56
ATL	Ozzie Albies	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.361
ATL	Matt Olson	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 2.3
ATL	Michael Harris II	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 2.23
MIA	Griffin Conine	batter / RF	worse	predicted_BB 1.655
ATL	Sean Murphy	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 1.64
MIA	Deyvison De Los Santos	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 1.5
MIA	Jared Serna	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=14).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=3; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=4 box=5; Griffin Conine: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Deyvison De Los Santos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jared Serna: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Agustín Ramírez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BAL@NYYMISS

Predicted: NYY 5-6 (conf +0.01, toss_up)Actual: BAL 10-2Brier 0.255total bias -1

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 9; total bias -1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.872, recent +0.482, pitcher -0.076, composite +0.433
confidence pipeline reached 0.505 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.505
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

BAL offense under-projected by 5
NYY offense over-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BAL	Trevor Rogers	1 ER / 19 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	0
NYY	Brendan Beck	1 ER / 9 outs	0 ER / 7 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.922 / away×0.998; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Pete Alonso (BAL 1B): 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Jeremiah Jackson (BAL 2B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Ben Rice (NYY DH): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Colton Cowser (BAL CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Trevor Rogers (BAL) threw 12 outs, 1 ER = 2.25 ERA against a projected 1.42 ERA (0.83 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 12 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Heliot Ramos: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error
Amed Rosario: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.308, average - a good day, not a model error
Ali Sánchez: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.252, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Brendan Beck (NYY) at a projected 3 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 13 hits and 4 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (7 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Pete Alonso: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.399, elite - real projection error
Jeremiah Jackson: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.282, weak - a good day, not a model error
Colton Cowser: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
BAL	Trevor Rogers (Starter)	12 / 19	2.25 / 1.42	1 / 1	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 3	0.9	4 / 3	8.02	venue away: 4.48 vs 3.55 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.92 (strong) · 29 prior appearances this season
BAL	Albert Suárez (Reliever)	12 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 2	3 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 1	n/a	5 / 3	n/a
NYY	David Bednar (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.23	1 / 2	1.55
NYY	Paul Blackburn (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.38	1 / 2	0.84

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Pete Alonso (1B)	BAL	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.54	0.399 elite	projection too low
Jeremiah Jackson (2B)	BAL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1.26	0.282 weak	good day
Ben Rice (DH)	NYY	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.26	0.378 elite	bad day
Colton Cowser (CF)	BAL	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.312 average	no signal
Paul Goldschmidt (1B)	NYY	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.313 average	no signal
Heliot Ramos (LF)	NYY	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.09	0.325 above average	projection too low
Dylan Beavers (RF)	BAL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 1	2 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0.95	0.293 below average	good day
Christian Franklin (LF)	BAL	5 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.292 below average	good day
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	BAL	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.337 above average	projection too low
Amed Rosario (RF)	NYY	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.308 average	—
George Lombard Jr. (SS)	NYY	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.302 below average	—
Ali Sánchez (C)	NYY	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.252 weak	—
Carlos Narváez (C)	BAL	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.258 weak	—
Coby Mayo (DH)	BAL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 2	-0.14	0.338 above average	—
Gunnar Henderson (SS)	BAL	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.322 above average	—
Anthony Volpe (3B)	NYY	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.292 below average	—
José Caballero (2B)	NYY	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.279 weak	—
Spencer Jones (CF)	NYY	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0	0.324 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.872	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.482	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.076	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.433	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.33-2.99	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.33-2.99	5-3	0.345	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	4-5	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	5-5	-1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-5	5-6	1	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYY	José Caballero	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 3.593
BAL	Albert Suárez	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_SO 3
NYY	Amed Rosario	batter / RF	better	predicted_BB 2.863
BAL	Dylan Beavers	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 2.784
BAL	Christian Franklin	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 2.5
BAL	Colton Cowser	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 2.339
BAL	Carlos Narváez	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 2.195
NYY	Paul Goldschmidt	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 2.19

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=43; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=13).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Franklin: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=44; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=11).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Amed Rosario: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=3; Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=6, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ali Sánchez: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BAL@NYYHIT

Predicted: NYY 5-6 (conf +0.02, toss_up)Actual: NYY 3-6Brier 0.239total bias +2

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.02 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.872, recent +0.482, pitcher -0.040, composite +0.512
confidence pipeline reached 0.561 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.512
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Decision internals: run factors home×0.958 / away×0.998; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Coby Mayo (BAL DH): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Christian Franklin (BAL LF): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Spencer Jones (NYY CF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.64]
Pete Alonso (BAL 1B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.6]

Starter miss: Brandon Young (BAL) posted 1.80 ERA vs projected 9.53 (1 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Brandon Young (BAL) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 9.53 ERA (-7.73 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 2 runs / 4 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Heliot Ramos: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Brendan Beck (NYY) at a projected 12 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 1 runs / 4 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Coby Mayo: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.27 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.338, above average - real projection error
Christian Franklin: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
BAL	Brandon Young (Starter)	15 / 17	1.8 / 9.53 (-7.73)	1 / 6	2 / 5	0 / 1	3 / 4	2.38	6 / 9	6.16	venue away: 3.27 vs 3.64 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (strong) · 27 prior appearances this season
NYY	Brent Headrick (Setup Man)	3 / 3	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.27	2 / 1	1.45

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Coby Mayo (DH)	BAL	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 2	1.27	0.338 above average	projection too low
Christian Franklin (LF)	BAL	5 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.94	0.292 below average	good day
Spencer Jones (CF)	NYY	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.64	0.324 above average	bad day
Pete Alonso (1B)	BAL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	-0.6	0.399 elite	bad day
Heliot Ramos (LF)	NYY	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.325 above average	—
Dylan Beavers (RF)	BAL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.29	0.293 below average	—
Ben Rice (DH)	NYY	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.15	0.378 elite	—
Jeremiah Jackson (2B)	BAL	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.282 weak	—
Anthony Volpe (3B)	NYY	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.292 below average	—
Ali Sánchez (C)	NYY	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.252 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.872	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.482	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.04	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.512	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.09-3.49	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.512	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.09-3.49	5-3	-0.402	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	4-5	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	5-5	-1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-5	5-6	1	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BAL	Coby Mayo	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 4.488
NYY	José Caballero	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.114
NYY	Ali Sánchez	batter / C	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.81
NYY	Anthony Volpe	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_RBI 1.631
BAL	Christian Franklin	batter / LF	worse	predicted_BB 1.625
NYY	Amed Rosario	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 1.35
NYY	George Lombard Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.26
NYY	Ben Rice	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -1.16

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=7, sim=3; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=8).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Colton Cowser: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Franklin: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Amed Rosario: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Heliot Ramos: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; José Caballero: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ali Sánchez: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHC@BOSMISS

Predicted: CHC 5-4 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: BOS 3-4Brier 0.255total bias +2

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.414, recent -0.348, pitcher -0.016, composite -0.529
confidence pipeline reached 0.505 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.495
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHC	Clay Holmes	2 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 15 outs	-2
BOS	Alec Gamboa	2 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 12 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.986 / away×1.002; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Roman Anthony (BOS LF): 3-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.18]
Mickey Gasper (BOS C): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Jarren Duran (BOS CF): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.13]
Alex Bregman (CHC DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Wilyer Abreu (BOS RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]

Starter miss: Alec Gamboa (BOS) posted 13.50 ERA vs projected 3.60 (3 ER in 6 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Clay Holmes (CHC) threw 13 outs, 2 ER = 4.15 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (0.97 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Roman Anthony: 3-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+2.18 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.338, above average - real projection error
Jarren Duran: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.13 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.301, below average - a good day, not a model error
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Alec Gamboa (BOS) threw 6 outs, 3 ER = 13.5 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (9.9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Michael Busch: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.332, above average - real projection error
Matt Shaw: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.296, below average - a good day, not a model error
Miguel Amaya: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.288, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CHC	Clay Holmes (Starter)	13 / 17	4.15 / 3.18	2 / 2	5 / 2	0 / 0	3 / 3	3.16	3 / 7	4.4	venue away: 4.44 vs 1.94 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 17 prior appearances this season
CHC	Caleb Thielbar (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 1	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.25	1 / 1	0.72
BOS	Alec Gamboa (Starter)	6 / 15	13.5 / 3.6 (+9.90)	3 / 2	4 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 4	0	1 / 4	3.14	venue home: 0 vs 0 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (strong) · 20 prior appearances this season
BOS	Greg Weissert (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.23	1 / 1	0.86

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Roman Anthony (LF)	BOS	3 / 4	3 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2.18	0.338 above average	projection too low
Mickey Gasper (C)	BOS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-1.4	0.358 elite	bad day
Jarren Duran (CF)	BOS	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	1.13	0.301 below average	good day
Alex Bregman (DH)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-1.11	0.323 above average	bad day
Wilyer Abreu (RF)	BOS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.348 elite	bad day
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	CHC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.93	0.376 elite	bad day
Michael Busch (1B)	CHC	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.332 above average	projection too low
Matt Shaw (3B)	CHC	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.296 below average	good day
Seiya Suzuki (RF)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.78	0.34 elite	bad day
Miguel Amaya (C)	CHC	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.288 below average	good day
Nico Hoerner (2B)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.323 above average	—
Dansby Swanson (SS)	CHC	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.303 average	—
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS)	BOS	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.292 below average	—
Nick Sogard (2B)	BOS	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Caleb Durbin (3B)	BOS	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.295 below average	—
Tyrone Taylor (LF)	CHC	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.308 average	—
Adley Rutschman (DH)	BOS	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.325 above average	—
Andruw Monasterio (1B)	BOS	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.292 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.414	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.348	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.016	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.529	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.06-4.79	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.06-4.79	4-5	-0.262	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BOS	Caleb Durbin	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 3.462
CHC	Tyrone Taylor	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 2.457
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.04
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	better	predicted_2B 1.777
BOS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.698
CHC	Dansby Swanson	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.47
BOS	Roman Anthony	batter / LF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.47
CHC	Matt Shaw	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.387

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=12).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: SO current=0 box=1; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1	CHC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHC@BOSHIT

Predicted: BOS 3-4 (conf +0.11, moderate)Actual: BOS 0-2Brier 0.196total bias +5

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.414, recent -0.348, pitcher -0.066, composite -0.279
confidence pipeline reached 0.567 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.557
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (7 vs 2)
CHC offense over-projected by 3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.024 / away×1.09; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS SS): 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]

Starter miss: David Peterson (CHC) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 7.20 (0 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

David Peterson (CHC) threw 15 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-7.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 1 runs / 5 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Brayan Bello (BOS) threw 12 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (-1.8 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 5 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nico Hoerner: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CHC	David Peterson (Starter)	15 / 15	0 / 7.2 (-7.20)	0 / 4	3 / 5	0 / 2	2 / 4	2.84	6 / 6	4.86	venue away: 4.18 vs 6.34 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 31 prior appearances this season
BOS	Brayan Bello (Starter)	12 / 15	0 / 1.8	0 / 1	4 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2.25	2 / 4	4.08	venue home: 7.79 vs 7.75 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (strong) · 25 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.376 elite	bad day
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS)	BOS	1 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0.66	0.292 below average	good day
Nico Hoerner (2B)	CHC	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.323 above average	—
Andruw Monasterio (1B)	BOS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
Nick Sogard (2B)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.311 average	—
Seiya Suzuki (RF)	CHC	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.16	0.34 elite	—
Michael Busch (1B)	CHC	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.332 above average	—
Matt Shaw (3B)	CHC	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.296 below average	—
Roman Anthony (LF)	BOS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.338 above average	—
Jarren Duran (CF)	BOS	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.301 below average	—
Wilyer Abreu (RF)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.348 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.414	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.348	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.066	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.279	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.42-4.61	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.557	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.42-4.61	4-5	0.817	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.78
BOS	Jarren Duran	batter / CF	worse	predicted_BB 1.738
BOS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.698
BOS	Wilyer Abreu	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.65
CHC	Matt Shaw	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.387
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO -1.146
BOS	Roman Anthony	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H -1.14
CHC	Dansby Swanson	batter / SS	better	predicted_SO 1.092

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=8; SO: current=7, sim=8).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=6, sim=8).	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Shaw: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Amaya: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dansby Swanson: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	CHC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CIN@TORHIT

Predicted: TOR 3-5 (conf +0.27, strong)Actual: TOR 5-6Brier 0.133total bias -3

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.27 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias -3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.469, recent -0.020, pitcher +0.091, composite +0.813
confidence pipeline reached 0.636 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.636
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 3 (8 vs 11)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CIN	Nick Lodolo	2 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	0
TOR	José Soriano	3 ER / 18 outs	5 ER / 9 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.037 / away×0.946; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Eugenio Suárez (CIN 3B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
George Springer (TOR DH): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
JJ Bleday (CIN LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Charles McAdoo (TOR 2B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Ernie Clement (TOR SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: José Soriano (TOR) posted 15.00 ERA vs projected 4.50 (5 ER in 9 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Nick Lodolo (CIN) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Charles McAdoo: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error
Nathan Lukes: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error
Alejandro Kirk: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

José Soriano (TOR) threw 9 outs, 5 ER = 15 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (10.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 12 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Eugenio Suárez: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error
Héctor Rodríguez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.258, weak - a good day, not a model error
Juan Brito: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CIN	Nick Lodolo (Starter)	15 / 15	3.6 / 3.6	2 / 2	7 / 4	0 / 1	2 / 1	2.48	3 / 5	4.77	venue away: 5.97 vs 4.5 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.04 (weak) · 20 prior appearances this season
CIN	Luis Mey (Setup Man)	3 / 3	27 / 0 (+27.00)	3 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.56	1 / 0	1.56
TOR	José Soriano (Starter)	9 / 18	15 / 4.5 (+10.50)	5 / 3	8 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.9	2 / 6	4.31	venue home: 3.79 vs 3.67 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (weak) · 31 prior appearances this season
TOR	Louis Varland (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	2 / 1	1.07
TOR	Tyler Rogers (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.25	1 / 1	0.49

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Eugenio Suárez (3B)	CIN	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.54	0.299 below average	good day
George Springer (DH)	TOR	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.304 average	no signal
JJ Bleday (LF)	CIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.339 above average	bad day
Charles McAdoo (2B)	TOR	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.275 weak	good day
Ernie Clement (SS)	TOR	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.259 weak	projection too high
Nathan Lukes (RF)	TOR	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.29 below average	good day
Alejandro Kirk (C)	TOR	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.64	0.307 average	no signal
Elly De La Cruz (DH)	CIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.62	0.376 elite	bad day
Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	TOR	3 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.49	0.326 above average	—
Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	CIN	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.258 weak	—
Juan Brito (2B)	CIN	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.299 below average	—
Oswaldo Cabrera (SS)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.113 weak	—
Myles Straw (CF)	TOR	2 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.292 below average	—
Carlos Jorge (CF)	CIN	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.16	0.251 weak	—
Sal Stewart (1B)	CIN	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.346 elite	—
Jose Trevino (C)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.22 weak	—
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	TOR	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.334 above average	—
Davis Schneider (LF)	TOR	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.281 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.469	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.02	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.091	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.813	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.78-5.74	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-5	0.636	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.78-5.74	4-6	0.042	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	3-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-5	3-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-5	3-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-5	3-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-5	3-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TOR	Alejandro Kirk	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.82
CIN	JJ Bleday	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 2.087
TOR	Davis Schneider	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H 1.65
CIN	Oswaldo Cabrera	batter / SS	better	predicted_SO -1.6
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.46
CIN	Elly De La Cruz	batter / DH	deboosted	predicted_RBI 1.438
CIN	Eugenio Suárez	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO -1.347
TOR	Charles McAdoo	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.25

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Eugenio Suárez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Jorge: R current=0 box=1; Oswaldo Cabrera: SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Charles McAdoo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Springer: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: 2B current=0 box=1; Davis Schneider: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CLE@KCHIT

Predicted: CLE 4-3 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: CLE 12-9Brier 0.194total bias -14

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 14; total bias -14
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.942, recent -1.154, pitcher +0.096, composite -0.775
confidence pipeline reached 0.618 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 14 (7 vs 21)
CLE offense under-projected by 8
KC offense under-projected by 6
Noah Cameron (KC) allowed 4 more ER than projected (6 vs 2)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CLE	Gavin Williams	3 ER / 17 outs	4 ER / 10 outs	1
KC	Noah Cameron	2 ER / 17 outs	6 ER / 15 outs	4

Decision internals: run factors home×1.024 / away×0.928; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

David Fry (CLE 1B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Austin Hedges (CLE C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Salvador Perez (KC DH): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Jac Caglianone (KC RF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Carter Jensen (KC C): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]

Starter miss: Noah Cameron (KC) posted 10.80 ERA vs projected 3.18 (6 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (4.58 ERA there vs 3.63 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Gavin Williams (CLE) threw 10 outs, 4 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (6.04 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 13 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Salvador Perez: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Jac Caglianone: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.356, elite - real projection error
Carter Jensen: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.308, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Noah Cameron (KC) threw 15 outs, 6 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (7.62 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 4 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 11 runs on 9 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (7 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

David Fry: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.264, weak - a good day, not a model error
Austin Hedges: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.278, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jo Adell: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.97 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CLE	Gavin Williams (Starter)	10 / 17	10.8 / 4.76 (+6.04)	4 / 3	5 / 3	1 / 1	4 / 0	1.82	4 / 8	7.31	venue away: 4.79 vs 2.84 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.02 (weak) · 31 prior appearances this season
CLE	Erik Sabrowski (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.66	1 / 0	1.39
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	3 / 3	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.3	0 / 0	0.8
KC	Noah Cameron (Starter)	15 / 17	10.8 / 3.18 (+7.62)	6 / 2	7 / 5	2 / 1	4 / 3	1.53	3 / 6	4.79	venue home: 4.58 vs 3.63 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 30 prior appearances this season
KC	Connor Thomas (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.38	0 / 1	0.8
KC	Nate Pearson (Closer)	2 / 3	54 / 9 (+45.00)	4 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	4 / 1	0.42	0 / 2	0.95

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
David Fry (1B)	CLE	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.264 weak	good day
Austin Hedges (C)	CLE	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.26	0.278 weak	good day
Salvador Perez (DH)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.26	0.313 average	no signal
Jac Caglianone (RF)	KC	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.25	0.356 elite	projection too low
Carter Jensen (C)	KC	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	5 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.308 average	no signal
Jo Adell (RF)	CLE	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.97	0.323 above average	projection too low
Maikel Garcia (3B)	KC	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.49	0.315 average	—
Kyle Isbel (CF)	KC	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.253 weak	—
Chase DeLauter (DH)	CLE	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.33	0.344 elite	—
Brayan Rocchio (SS)	CLE	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.33	0.293 below average	—
John Rave (LF)	KC	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.317 average	—
José Ramírez (3B)	CLE	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.31	0.325 above average	—
Travis Bazzana (2B)	CLE	5 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.3 below average	—
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.379 elite	—
Angel Martínez (LF)	CLE	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	4 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.18	0.304 average	—
Steven Kwan (CF)	CLE	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	-0.14	0.328 above average	—
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.334 above average	—
Michael Massey (2B)	KC	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0	0.308 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.942	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.154	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.096	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.775	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.84-4.31	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.84-4.31	5-4	0.468	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-3	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Gavin Williams	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 3
CLE	José Ramírez	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.57
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	pitcher / Setup Man	worse	predicted_SO -2
KC	Michael Massey	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.56
CLE	David Fry	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
CLE	Steven Kwan	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 1.371
KC	Jac Caglianone	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.32
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H -1.32

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=10).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase DeLauter: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Maikel Garcia: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; John Rave: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0	KC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

COL@CHWHIT

Predicted: CHW 4-9 (conf +0.45, strong)Actual: CHW 1-6Brier 0.077total bias +6

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.45 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.459, recent +0.928, pitcher +0.059, composite +2.066
confidence pipeline reached 0.723 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.723
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 6 (13 vs 7)
COL offense over-projected by 3
CHW offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	6 ER / 15 outs	4 ER / 20 outs	-2
CHW	Sean Burke	1 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 16 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.994 / away×0.934; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
TJ Rumfield (COL 1B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Miguel Vargas (CHW 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Jake McCarthy (COL CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Troy Johnston (COL RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) posted 5.40 ERA vs projected 10.80 (4 ER in 20 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (5.64 ERA there vs 5.13 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) threw 20 outs, 4 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 10.8 ERA (-5.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 1 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 5 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Munetaka Murakami: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.346, elite - real projection error
Braden Montgomery: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Sean Burke (CHW) at a projected 1.8 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

TJ Rumfield: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Ezequiel Tovar: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.278, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano (Starter)	20 / 15	5.4 / 10.8 (-5.40)	4 / 6	6 / 6	2 / 2	0 / 2	1.49	5 / 3	3.66	venue away: 5.64 vs 5.13 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
COL	Brennan Bernardino (Setup Man)	1 / 6	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.15	0 / 2	0.86

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Munetaka Murakami (1B)	CHW	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.54	0.346 elite	projection too low
TJ Rumfield (1B)	COL	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.07	0.333 above average	projection too low
Miguel Vargas (3B)	CHW	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.38 elite	bad day
Jake McCarthy (CF)	COL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.78	0.323 above average	bad day
Troy Johnston (RF)	COL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.326 above average	bad day
Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	COL	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.278 weak	good day
Hunter Goodman (C)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.62	0.32 average	no signal
Adael Amador (2B)	COL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.271 weak	—
Kyle Karros (3B)	COL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.339 above average	—
Mickey Moniak (LF)	COL	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.279 weak	—
Braden Montgomery (RF)	CHW	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.325 above average	—
Kyle Teel (C)	CHW	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.327 above average	—
Randal Grichuk (LF)	CHW	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.337 above average	—
Zac Veen (DH)	COL	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.278 weak	—
Colson Montgomery (SS)	CHW	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.297 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.459	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.928	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.059	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	2.066	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.8-5.76	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-8	0.723	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-9	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-9	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-9	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-9	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.8-5.76	4-6	0.042	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	4-8	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-8	4-9	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-9	4-9	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-9	4-9	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-9	4-9	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHW	Miguel Vargas	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.97
COL	Ezequiel Tovar	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 2.69
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 2.644
CHW	Braden Montgomery	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.568
COL	Zac Veen	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
CHW	Randal Grichuk	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO -1.487
COL	TJ Rumfield	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.433

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=9; R: current=5, sim=9; SO: current=7, sim=5).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Kyle Teel: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Randal Grichuk: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4; Braden Montgomery: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=8, sim=9).	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Zac Veen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mickey Moniak: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	COL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

HOU@OAKMISS

Predicted: HOU 5-4 (conf -0.08, lean)Actual: OAK 5-6Brier 0.291total bias -2

Root cause: Several errors of similar size

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.848, recent -0.110, pitcher +0.023, composite -0.623
confidence pipeline reached 0.555 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.461
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
HOU	Hunter Brown	3 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 16 outs	-2
OAK	Jacob Lopez	3 ER / 13 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.96 / away×0.936; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jeremy Peña (HOU SS): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Shea Langeliers (OAK DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Cam Smith (HOU RF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Jose Altuve (HOU 2B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Jonah Heim (OAK C): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]

Starter miss: Jacob Lopez (OAK) posted 1.50 ERA vs projected 6.23 (1 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Hunter Brown (HOU) threw 16 outs, 1 ER = 1.69 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (-3.37 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jonah Heim: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.284, below average - a good day, not a model error
Henry Bolte: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.315, average - a good day, not a model error
Carlos Cortes: 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jacob Lopez (OAK) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 6.23 ERA (-4.73 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 5 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Cam Smith: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Christian Walker: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.3, below average - a good day, not a model error
Yainer Diaz: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Hunter Brown (Starter)	16 / 16	1.69 / 5.06 (-3.37)	1 / 3	2 / 5	0 / 1	4 / 0	1.91	4 / 6	7.45	venue away: 3.26 vs 3.27 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (weak) · 19 prior appearances this season
HOU	Logan VanWey (Setup Man)	4 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	2 / 1	0.73
OAK	Jacob Lopez (Starter)	18 / 13	1.5 / 6.23 (-4.73)	1 / 3	2 / 5	1 / 1	2 / 0	1.87	4 / 7	3.6	venue home: 5.64 vs 5.62 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.94 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
OAK	Hogan Harris (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.48	1 / 1	1.08
OAK	Luis Medina (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.48	1 / 2	1.16

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jeremy Peña (SS)	HOU	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.324 above average	bad day
Shea Langeliers (DH)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-1.4	0.357 elite	bad day
Cam Smith (RF)	HOU	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1.26	0.316 average	no signal
Jose Altuve (2B)	HOU	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.271 weak	projection too high
Jonah Heim (C)	OAK	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.284 below average	good day
Yordan Alvarez (DH)	HOU	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.93	0.443 elite	bad day
Christian Walker (1B)	HOU	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.93	0.3 below average	good day
Lawrence Butler (RF)	OAK	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.78	0.328 above average	bad day
Henry Bolte (CF)	OAK	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.76	0.315 average	no signal
Isaac Paredes (3B)	HOU	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	-0.47	0.323 above average	—
Yainer Diaz (C)	HOU	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.31 average	—
Lucas Spence (CF)	HOU	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.285 below average	—
Jorge Barrosa (LF)	HOU	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.239 weak	—
Donovan Walton (SS)	OAK	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.326 above average	—
Zack Gelof (3B)	OAK	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.326 above average	—
Carlos Cortes (LF)	OAK	1 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.302 below average	—
Jeff McNeil (2B)	OAK	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.31	0.3 below average	—
Tommy White (1B)	OAK	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.291 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.848	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.11	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.023	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.623	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.66-4.44	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.66-4.44	6-4	0.78	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-4	5-4	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
HOU	Jorge Barrosa	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.805
OAK	Henry Bolte	batter / CF	boosted	predicted_RBI 2.679
HOU	Christian Walker	batter / 1B	boosted	predicted_SO 2.04
OAK	Jacob Lopez	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_H 2
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_H -2
HOU	Isaac Paredes	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.43
OAK	Tommy White	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.404
HOU	Jeremy Peña	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H -1.36

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=10).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Isaac Paredes: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lucas Spence: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Barrosa: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=0).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zack Gelof: RBI current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	OAK
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAA@SEAHIT

Predicted: LAA 4-3 (conf -0.04, toss_up)Actual: LAA 7-5Brier 0.232total bias -5

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.04 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.192, recent -0.066, pitcher +0.107, composite +0.144
confidence pipeline reached 0.525 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.482
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 5 (7 vs 12)
LAA offense under-projected by 3
Reid Detmers (LAA) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAA	Reid Detmers	3 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-3
SEA	Bryce Miller	4 ER / 16 outs	5 ER / 18 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.038 / away×0.931; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Zach Neto (LAA SS): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.16]
Wade Meckler (LAA LF): 4-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.7]
Mike Trout (LAA DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Dominic Canzone (SEA RF): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Christian Moore (LAA 2B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Reid Detmers (LAA) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 4.50 (0 ER in 18 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Reid Detmers (LAA) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 7 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Dominic Canzone: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.27 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.353, elite - real projection error
Randy Arozarena: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.35, elite - real projection error
Weston Wilson: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.257, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Bryce Miller (SEA) threw 18 outs, 5 ER = 7.5 ERA against a projected 6.75 ERA (0.75 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 10 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Zach Neto: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+2.16 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Wade Meckler: 4-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.7 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Christian Moore: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.237, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAA	Reid Detmers (Starter)	18 / 18	0 / 4.5 (-4.50)	0 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 0	2 / 4	0.83	7 / 6	7.72	venue away: 3.47 vs 3.47 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (weak) · 31 prior appearances this season
LAA	José Fermin (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.46	1 / 0	1.27
LAA	Tayler Saucedo (Setup Man)	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.28	1 / 1	0.97
LAA	Luke Murphy (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 1	27 / 0 (+27.00)	3 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.33	1 / 1	0.81
SEA	Bryce Miller (Starter)	18 / 16	7.5 / 6.75	5 / 4	6 / 4	1 / 1	2 / 4	3.04	7 / 2	5.36	venue home: 3.66 vs 4.28 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 21 prior appearances this season
SEA	Eduard Bazardo (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.46	0 / 0	1.05

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Zach Neto (SS)	LAA	5 / 4	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	2.16	0.313 average	no signal
Wade Meckler (LF)	LAA	5 / 4	4 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.7	0.317 average	no signal
Mike Trout (DH)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.381 elite	bad day
Dominic Canzone (RF)	SEA	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.27	0.353 elite	projection too low
Christian Moore (2B)	LAA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.237 weak	good day
Vaughn Grissom (3B)	LAA	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.309 average	no signal
Julio Rodríguez (CF)	SEA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.337 above average	bad day
Randy Arozarena (DH)	SEA	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.76	0.35 elite	projection too low
Moisés Ballesteros (1B)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.293 below average	—
Josh Lowe (RF)	LAA	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.287 below average	—
Josh Naylor (1B)	SEA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.313 average	—
Cole Young (2B)	SEA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.312 average	—
Bryce Teodosio (CF)	LAA	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.208 weak	—
Leo Rivas (SS)	SEA	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.254 weak	—
Weston Wilson (3B)	SEA	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.257 weak	—
Michael Arroyo (LF)	SEA	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.356 elite	—
Jhonny Pereda (C)	SEA	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.348 elite	—
Travis d'Arnaud (C)	LAA	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.242 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.192	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.066	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.107	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.144	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.22-3.65	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.518	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.22-3.65	4-4	-0.569	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-3	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SEA	Julio Rodríguez	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -3.2
LAA	Reid Detmers	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 3
LAA	Wade Meckler	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.697
LAA	Ryan Watson	pitcher / Closer	worse	predicted_SO -2
LAA	Mike Trout	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB -1.607
SEA	Michael Arroyo	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
SEA	Dominic Canzone	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.468
SEA	Weston Wilson	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.426

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=3).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Bryce Teodosio: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Travis d'Arnaud: BB current=0 box=1	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jhonny Pereda: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Leo Rivas: SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cole Young: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAD@SFHIT

Predicted: LAD 6-2 (conf -0.13, moderate)Actual: LAD 2-0Brier 0.188total bias +6

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.13 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.628, recent -1.194, pitcher -0.060, composite -2.045
confidence pipeline reached 0.637 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.434
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: 1 structural defect(s) on the saved artifact; see the per-game file-integrity table (this is a file check, not why the pick missed)

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 6 (8 vs 2)
LAD offense over-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAD	Tarik Skubal	1 ER / 19 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-1
SF	Yunior Marte	3 ER / 14 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.953 / away×1.012; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Shohei Ohtani (LAD DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Andy Pages (LAD CF): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Freddie Freeman (LAD 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Brett Harris (SF 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Will Smith (LAD C): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tarik Skubal (LAD) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.42 ERA (-1.42 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 3 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Scott Bandura: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.135, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Yunior Marte (SF) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 5.79 ERA (-2.19 ERA error) only 4 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 7 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Andy Pages: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.341, elite - real projection error
Will Smith: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.389, elite - real projection error
Teoscar Hernández: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.33, above average - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAD	Tarik Skubal (Starter)	21 / 19	0 / 1.42	0 / 1	3 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.22	10 / 7	5.91	venue away: 1.87 vs 3.63 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (weak) · 25 prior appearances this season
LAD	Tanner Scott (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.36	2 / 0	1.3
SF	Yunior Marte (Starter)	15 / 14	3.6 / 5.79	2 / 3	6 / 3	2 / 2	1 / 3	2.18	4 / 6	2.85	opp run factor 1.01 (strong) · thin sample: 4 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
SF	Dylan Smith (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.59	1 / 2	1.15

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Shohei Ohtani (DH)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.73	0.402 elite	bad day
Andy Pages (CF)	LAD	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.341 elite	projection too low
Freddie Freeman (1B)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.365 elite	bad day
Brett Harris (1B)	SF	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.246 weak	projection too high
Will Smith (C)	LAD	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.94	0.389 elite	projection too low
Teoscar Hernández (LF)	LAD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.33 above average	projection too low
Victor Bericoto (DH)	SF	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.3 below average	projection too high
Kyle Tucker (RF)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.8	0.331 above average	bad day
Max Muncy (3B)	LAD	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.346 elite	bad day
Jonah Cox (CF)	SF	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 2	-0.8	0.265 weak	projection too high
Enrique Hernández (2B)	LAD	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.274 weak	—
Shay Whitcomb (3B)	SF	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.262 weak	—
Andrew Knizner (C)	SF	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.291 below average	—
Marcelo Mayer (2B)	SF	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.259 weak	—
Scott Bandura (LF)	SF	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.135 weak	—
Mookie Betts (SS)	LAD	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.341 elite	—
Bo Davidson (RF)	SF	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.392 elite	—
Christian Koss (SS)	SF	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.246 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.628	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.194	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.06	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-2.045	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.31-3.26	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	0.566	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-2	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-2	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-2	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-2	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.31-3.26	5-3	-0.047	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	5-3	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	6-2	2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-2	6-2	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-2	6-2	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-2	6-2	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Enrique Hernández	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
SF	Brett Harris	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
LAD	Will Smith	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.41
LAD	Shohei Ohtani	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.397
SF	Marcelo Mayer	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.3
LAD	Freddie Freeman	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.253
SF	Christian Koss	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.21
LAD	Andy Pages	batter / CF	worse	predicted_H -1.19

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
error	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF HR=3 exceeds RBI=2; every HR creates at least one RBI unless special scoring data is absent.	SF
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=2, sim=3).	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=9).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andy Pages: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=11).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Harris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Bericoto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bo Davidson: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Marcelo Mayer: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Scott Bandura: H current=0 box=1	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYM@WASHIT

Predicted: WAS 4-5 (conf +0.03, toss_up)Actual: WAS 6-7Brier 0.237total bias -4

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.03 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.346, recent +0.230, pitcher +0.038, composite +0.511
confidence pipeline reached 0.518 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.513
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (9 vs 13)
Andrew Alvarez (WAS) allowed 3 more ER than projected (5 vs 2)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYM	Jefry Yan	2 ER / 12 outs	2 ER / 5 outs	0
WAS	Andrew Alvarez	2 ER / 17 outs	5 ER / 14 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.962; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Carson Benge (NYM RF): 2-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.06]
Bo Bichette (NYM 3B): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Dylan Crews (WAS RF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
CJ Abrams (WAS SS): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Francisco Alvarez (NYM C): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Andrew Alvarez (WAS) posted 9.64 ERA vs projected 3.18 (5 ER in 14 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jefry Yan (NYM) threw 5 outs, 2 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (6.3 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Dylan Crews: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
James Wood: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.404, elite - real projection error
Jacob Young: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Andrew Alvarez (WAS) threw 14 outs, 5 ER = 9.64 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (6.46 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Carson Benge: 2-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+2.06 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.339, above average - real projection error
Bo Bichette: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error
Mark Vientos: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
NYM	Jefry Yan (Starter)	5 / 12	10.8 / 4.5 (+6.30)	2 / 2	3 / 2	0 / 2	2 / 0	0	1 / 2	4.6	opp run factor 1 (strong) · 17 prior appearances this season
NYM	Nathan Lavender (Setup Man)	3 / 6	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.21	1 / 2	1.29
WAS	Andrew Alvarez (Starter)	14 / 17	9.64 / 3.18 (+6.46)	5 / 2	7 / 4	2 / 0	3 / 0	2.28	7 / 6	5.78	venue home: 2.65 vs 3.27 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Carson Benge (RF)	NYM	2 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	2.06	0.339 above average	projection too low
Bo Bichette (3B)	NYM	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.73	0.328 above average	projection too low
Dylan Crews (RF)	WAS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.26	0.316 average	no signal
CJ Abrams (SS)	WAS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.93	0.332 above average	bad day
Francisco Alvarez (C)	NYM	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.324 above average	bad day
Marcus Semien (2B)	NYM	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.302 below average	projection too high
James Wood (DH)	WAS	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.8	0.404 elite	projection too low
Francisco Lindor (SS)	NYM	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.64	0.33 above average	bad day
Andrés Chaparro (1B)	WAS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.339 above average	bad day
A.J. Ewing (CF)	NYM	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.318 average	—
Jacob Young (CF)	WAS	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.317 average	—
Daylen Lile (LF)	WAS	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.326 above average	—
Juan Soto (LF)	NYM	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.46	0.41 elite	—
Brady House (3B)	WAS	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.334 above average	—
Jorbit Vivas (2B)	WAS	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.293 below average	—
Mark Vientos (DH)	NYM	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.309 average	—
Christopher Morel (1B)	NYM	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.218 weak	—
Keibert Ruiz (C)	WAS	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.289 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.346	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.23	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.038	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.511	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.22-5.26	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.513	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.22-5.26	5-5	-0.039	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	4-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
WAS	Daylen Lile	batter / LF	worse	predicted_RBI 2.72
WAS	Dylan Crews	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB -2.55
NYM	Kodai Senga	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_IP 1.9
WAS	Andrés Chaparro	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 1.419
NYM	Juan Soto	batter / LF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.34
WAS	Keibert Ruiz	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.283
NYM	Bo Bichette	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.196
NYM	Francisco Lindor	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.12

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=9).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=27; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=6).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: BB current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: H current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PIT@DETMISS

Predicted: PIT 5-4 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: DET 7-8Brier 0.255total bias -6

Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.025, recent -0.425, pitcher -0.063, composite -0.410
confidence pipeline reached 0.507 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.495
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (9 vs 15)
DET offense under-projected by 4
Bubba Chandler (PIT) allowed 3 more ER than projected (6 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PIT	Bubba Chandler	3 ER / 15 outs	6 ER / 8 outs	3
DET	Jackson Jobe	2 ER / 16 outs	2 ER / 16 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.004 / away×1.067; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Spencer Torkelson (DET 1B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.94]
Eduardo Valencia (DET DH): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.46]
Brandon Lowe (PIT 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT C): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Dillon Dingler (DET C): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]

Starter miss: Bubba Chandler (PIT) posted 20.25 ERA vs projected 5.40 (6 ER in 8 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Bubba Chandler (PIT) threw 8 outs, 6 ER = 20.25 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (14.85 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Spencer Torkelson: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+2.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Eduardo Valencia: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.46 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.354, elite - real projection error
John Peck: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Jackson Jobe (DET) threw 16 outs, 2 ER = 3.38 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (0 ERA error) only 8 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Rafael Flores Jr.: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.354, elite - real projection error
Ryan O'Hearn: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Spencer Horwitz: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
PIT	Bubba Chandler (Starter)	8 / 15	20.25 / 5.4 (+14.85)	6 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 1	4 / 1	2.24	2 / 7	4.74	venue away: 4.34 vs 4.47 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
DET	Jackson Jobe (Starter)	16 / 16	3.38 / 3.38	2 / 2	3 / 2	0 / 1	2 / 3	1.9	8 / 5	6.39	venue home: 5.02 vs 3.42 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.07 (average) · 8 prior appearances this season
DET	Drew Sommers (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.24	2 / 1	1.63
DET	Kenley Jansen (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	2 / 1	1.18
DET	Tyler Holton (Setup Man)	1 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.3	0 / 0	0.7

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Spencer Torkelson (1B)	DET	4 / 3	3 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2.94	0.313 average	no signal
Eduardo Valencia (DH)	DET	2 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	3 / 0	0 / 1	1.46	0.354 elite	projection too low
Brandon Lowe (2B)	PIT	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-1.07	0.332 above average	bad day
Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.354 elite	projection too low
Dillon Dingler (C)	DET	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.93	0.341 elite	bad day
Bryan Reynolds (LF)	PIT	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.78	0.354 elite	bad day
Ryan O'Hearn (DH)	PIT	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.317 average	—
Konnor Griffin (SS)	PIT	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.309 average	—
Kevin McGonigle (3B)	DET	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	-0.47	0.357 elite	—
Hao-Yu Lee (2B)	DET	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.303 average	—
John Peck (SS)	DET	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.323 above average	—
Spencer Horwitz (1B)	PIT	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.45	0.313 average	—
Nick Gonzales (3B)	PIT	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.325 above average	—
Brett Callahan (RF)	DET	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.301 below average	—
Max Clark (CF)	DET	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.327 above average	—
Riley Greene (LF)	DET	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.33	0.373 elite	—
Jake Mangum (RF)	PIT	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.285 below average	—
Oneil Cruz (CF)	PIT	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.353 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.025	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.425	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.063	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.41	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.72-5.05	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.72-5.05	4-5	0.333	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
DET	John Peck	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.111
PIT	Oneil Cruz	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB -1.9
DET	Spencer Torkelson	batter / 1B	boosted	predicted_SO 1.771
DET	Brett Callahan	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
DET	Kevin McGonigle	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.377
DET	Hao-Yu Lee	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.192
PIT	Brandon Lowe	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.15
PIT	Nick Gonzales	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H -1.14

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Eduardo Valencia: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Rafael Flores Jr.: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

STL@MILHIT

Predicted: MIL 4-5 (conf +0.08, lean)Actual: MIL 4-8Brier 0.21total bias -3

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias -3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.297, recent +0.838, pitcher +0.032, composite +1.173
confidence pipeline reached 0.558 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.542
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 3 (9 vs 12)
MIL offense under-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
STL	Michael McGreevy	2 ER / 16 outs	4 ER / 14 outs	2
MIL	Robert Gasser	3 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.041 / away×1.009; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jake Bauers (MIL 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
David Hamilton (MIL 3B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Brice Turang (MIL 2B): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.23]
JJ Wetherholt (STL 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
José Fermín (STL LF): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Michael McGreevy (STL) posted 7.71 ERA vs projected 3.38 (4 ER in 14 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Michael McGreevy (STL) threw 14 outs, 4 ER = 7.71 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (4.33 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

David Hamilton: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.271, weak - a good day, not a model error
Brice Turang: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+1.23 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.343, elite - real projection error
Joey Ortiz: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.295, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Robert Gasser (MIL) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-3.9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Iván Herrera: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
Victor Scott II: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.271, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Michael McGreevy (Starter)	14 / 16	7.71 / 3.38 (+4.33)	4 / 2	9 / 6	0 / 1	2 / 0	1.86	2 / 7	3.44	venue away: 3.79 vs 3.89 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (strong) · 30 prior appearances this season
MIL	Robert Gasser (Starter)	18 / 15	1.5 / 5.4 (-3.90)	1 / 3	1 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	2.46	9 / 4	4.3	venue home: 3.62 vs 4.66 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 20 prior appearances this season
MIL	Abner Uribe (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.28	1 / 1	1.09
MIL	Trevor Megill (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.22	1 / 1	1.11

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jake Bauers (1B)	MIL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.26	0.374 elite	bad day
David Hamilton (3B)	MIL	3 / 3	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.25	0.271 weak	good day
Brice Turang (2B)	MIL	5 / 4	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.23	0.343 elite	projection too low
JJ Wetherholt (2B)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.349 elite	bad day
José Fermín (LF)	STL	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.8	0.295 below average	projection too high
Joey Ortiz (SS)	MIL	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.295 below average	good day
Garrett Mitchell (CF)	MIL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.351 elite	bad day
Iván Herrera (DH)	STL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	0.6	0.335 above average	projection too low
Thomas Saggese (3B)	STL	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.315 average	—
Pedro Pagés (C)	STL	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.267 weak	—
Victor Scott II (CF)	STL	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.271 weak	—
Sal Frelick (LF)	MIL	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.281 weak	—
Leonardo Bernal (1B)	STL	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.339 above average	—
Masyn Winn (SS)	STL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.296 below average	—
Luis Lara (RF)	MIL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.295 below average	—
Christian Yelich (DH)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.02	0.308 average	—
Jordan Walker (RF)	STL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.34 elite	—
William Contreras (C)	MIL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.334 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.297	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.838	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.032	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.173	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.3-4.81	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.542	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.3-4.81	4-5	0.488	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
STL	Iván Herrera	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 2.52
MIL	Brice Turang	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 2.39
STL	Jordan Walker	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H 2.14
STL	Thomas Saggese	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.062
MIL	David Hamilton	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.76
MIL	Joey Ortiz	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.287
MIL	Sal Frelick	batter / LF	better	predicted_H 1.26
STL	José Fermín	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 1.145

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Sal Frelick: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; José Fermín: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Pedro Pagés: H current=1 box=0	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TB@PHIMISS

Predicted: PHI 4-5 (conf +0.07, lean)Actual: TB 2-0Brier 0.286total bias +7

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.07 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias +7
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.346, recent -0.212, pitcher +0.093, composite +0.140
confidence pipeline reached 0.541 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.535
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 7 (9 vs 2)
PHI offense over-projected by 5
Freddy Peralta (TB) allowed 5 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TB	Freddy Peralta	5 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 16 outs	-5
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	3 ER / 19 outs	2 ER / 21 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.014 / away×0.922; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Kyle Schwarber (PHI DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Junior Caminero (TB 3B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Nick Fortes (TB C): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Yandy Díaz (TB DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Freddy Peralta (TB) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 7.94 (0 ER in 16 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (5.81 ERA there vs 3.53 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Freddy Peralta (TB) threw 16 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 7.94 ERA (-7.94 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 8 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) threw 21 outs, 2 ER = 2.57 ERA against a projected 4.26 ERA (-1.69 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nick Fortes: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.274, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jonathan Aranda: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.344, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
TB	Freddy Peralta (Starter)	16 / 17	0 / 7.94 (-7.94)	0 / 5	4 / 5	0 / 1	3 / 2	1.34	4 / 6	4.2	venue away: 5.81 vs 3.53 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 31 prior appearances this season
TB	Bryan Baker (Closer)	3 / 6	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.3	0 / 1	0.8
TB	Cam Booser (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.11	0 / 0	0.88
TB	Kevin Kelly (Setup Man)	3 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.11	1 / 0	0.9
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez (Starter)	21 / 19	2.57 / 4.26	2 / 3	5 / 7	1 / 0	1 / 3	1.32	10 / 6	5.72	venue home: 2.21 vs 3.87 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.92 (average) · 32 prior appearances this season
PHI	Jhoan Duran (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.19	1 / 0	1.43

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Kyle Schwarber (DH)	PHI	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-1.4	0.364 elite	bad day
Junior Caminero (3B)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.361 elite	bad day
Nick Fortes (C)	TB	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.274 weak	good day
Yandy Díaz (DH)	TB	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.347 elite	bad day
Chandler Simpson (LF)	TB	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.264 weak	—
Jorge Mateo (SS)	TB	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.274 weak	—
Alec Bohm (1B)	PHI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.329 above average	—
Brandon Marsh (LF)	PHI	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.302 below average	—
Edmundo Sosa (3B)	PHI	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.33 above average	—
Jonathan Aranda (1B)	TB	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.344 elite	—
Jonny DeLuca (CF)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.26 weak	—
Bryce Harper (RF)	PHI	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.31	0.38 elite	—
Ben Williamson (2B)	TB	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.289 below average	—
Ryan Vilade (RF)	TB	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.333 above average	—
Bryson Stott (2B)	PHI	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.329 above average	—
Trea Turner (SS)	PHI	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.293 below average	—
J.T. Realmuto (C)	PHI	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.317 average	—
Justin Crawford (CF)	PHI	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.284 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.346	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.212	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.093	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.14	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.31-5.09	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.535	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.31-5.09	4-5	0.214	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 5
TB	Junior Caminero	batter / 3B	boosted	predicted_RBI 2.22
TB	Ryan Vilade	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 2.08
PHI	Jhoan Duran	pitcher / Closer	neutral	predicted_SO -2
PHI	Justin Crawford	batter / CF	worse	predicted_2B 1.864
TB	Chandler Simpson	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.678
TB	Jonny DeLuca	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.66
TB	Nick Fortes	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 1.66

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=2, sim=3).	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Ben Williamson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TEX@MINHIT

Predicted: MIN 4-5 (conf +0.08, lean)Actual: MIN 2-10Brier 0.21total bias -3

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias -3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.195, recent +0.142, pitcher +0.054, composite +0.227
confidence pipeline reached 0.550 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.542
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 3 (9 vs 12)
MIN offense under-projected by 5
Jacob deGrom (TEX) allowed 5 more ER than projected (8 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TEX	Jacob deGrom	3 ER / 17 outs	8 ER / 12 outs	5
MIN	Joe Ryan	4 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.059 / away×1.005; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Luke Keaschall (MIN RF): 4-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.01]
Corey Seager (TEX SS): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Kody Clemens (MIN 2B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Ryan Kreidler (MIN SS): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Josh Jung (TEX DH): 0-for-0, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Jacob deGrom (TEX) posted 18.00 ERA vs projected 4.76 (8 ER in 12 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (5.35 ERA there vs 2.71 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jacob deGrom (TEX) threw 12 outs, 8 ER = 18 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (13.24 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 11 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (6 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Luke Keaschall: 4-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+2.01 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Kody Clemens: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.33, above average - real projection error
Ryan Kreidler: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.295, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Joe Ryan (MIN) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-4.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Danny Jansen: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.265, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jake Burger: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
TEX	Jacob deGrom (Starter)	12 / 17	18 / 4.76 (+13.24)	8 / 3	8 / 5	0 / 1	3 / 4	1.33	5 / 8	7.43	venue away: 5.35 vs 2.71 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.06 (average) · 30 prior appearances this season
MIN	Joe Ryan (Starter)	18 / 15	3 / 7.2 (-4.20)	2 / 4	4 / 4	0 / 1	1 / 3	0.99	8 / 5	4.38	venue home: 3.76 vs 3.89 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Luke Keaschall (RF)	MIN	5 / 4	4 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2.01	0.316 average	no signal
Corey Seager (SS)	TEX	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.349 elite	bad day
Kody Clemens (2B)	MIN	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.33 above average	projection too low
Ryan Kreidler (SS)	MIN	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.295 below average	good day
Josh Jung (DH)	TEX	0 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.347 elite	bad day
Brooks Lee (3B)	MIN	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.279 weak	projection too high
Ryan Jeffers (C)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.341 elite	bad day
Wyatt Langford (LF)	TEX	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.321 above average	—
Nicky Lopez (2B)	TEX	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.267 weak	—
Danny Jansen (C)	TEX	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.265 weak	—
Evan Carter (CF)	TEX	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.278 weak	—
Emmanuel Rodriguez (LF)	MIN	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.355 elite	—
Jake Burger (1B)	TEX	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.316 average	—
Josh Bell (DH)	MIN	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	-0.14	0.333 above average	—
Ezequiel Duran (3B)	TEX	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.301 below average	—
Brandon Nimmo (RF)	TEX	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.342 elite	—
Royce Lewis (1B)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.305 average	—
Walker Jenkins (CF)	MIN	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.315 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.195	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.142	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.054	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.227	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.35-4.7	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.542	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.35-4.7	4-5	0.648	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIN	Luke Keaschall	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.412
MIN	Royce Lewis	batter / 1B	better	predicted_2B 1.803
MIN	Ryan Kreidler	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H 1.76
TEX	Wyatt Langford	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.729
TEX	Danny Jansen	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.71
MIN	Josh Bell	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -1.63
MIN	Emmanuel Rodriguez	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.583
TEX	Nicky Lopez	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.386

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Walker Jenkins: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Josh Jung: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Corey Seager: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Danny Jansen: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Day over day: did it improve or worsen

Compared against packet 20260924. Last recorded change: v4.30.0 (2026-09-08) Hitter shrinkage is derived from the between-hitter spread rather than fitted to slate error, so an established extreme profile is no longer flattened toward the league.

Metric	Prior	Current	Δ	Result
brier_score	0.2454	0.2407	-0.004695	improved
accuracy	0.563	0.5882	+0.0252	improved
team_run_mae	2.4832	2.5168	+0.0336	regressed
total_run_mae	3.3529	3.6387	+0.2858	regressed
calibration_error	0.0535	0.0736	+0.0201	regressed
starter_er_mae	1.7323	1.74	+0.0077	regressed
starter_outs_mae	3.5984	3.648	+0.0496	regressed

Deep slate report — 20260925

Process, end to end

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (17)

ARI@SDHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

ATL@MIAMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BAL@NYYMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BAL@NYYHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHC@BOSMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHC@BOSHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CIN@TORHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CLE@KCHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

COL@CHWHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

HOU@OAKMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)