Deep slate report 20260912

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260912.json	n/a
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260912.json	n/a
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260912.json	n/a
game artifacts	loaded	per-game model trace and structural audit source	/app/output/games	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 2 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	CHW@STL, COL@DET	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	score_distribution	Published margins are compressed relative to realized margins 12/15 predictions were ≤2 runs; 8/15 actual margins were ≥4; mean predicted margin 1.67 vs actual 4.33	BAL@TOR, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisCheck whether predicted margins are too narrow across several recent out-of-sample slates (measuring tail coverage and margin MAE) before widening the score spread. Don't concludeA single blowout game is not a reason to widen every score prediction.
HIGH	calibration	Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate weighted absolute calibration error 0.1711 across 15 games	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisWatch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight. Don't concludeA single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0118/0.0210/0.0207	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 15/15 games structurally audited	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	11 consecutive · 11 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	11 consecutive · 11 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	1/11	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	0	3/11	no	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	1	2/11	yes	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	2	5/11	yes	param
weak_run_model_signal	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	regressing	[0.3333, 0.5556, 0.625, 0.5333, 0.6, 0.5455, 0.7333, 0.6667, 0.6, 0.6667, 0.5333]
weighted_calibration_error	regressing	[0.21, 0.1474, 0.1316, 0.1, 0.0937, 0.2611, 0.1825, 0.1069, 0.1171, 0.2091, 0.1711]
margin_bias	regressing	[-3.067, -1.778, -0.688, -1.467, -1.467, -0.182, -0.867, -2.133, -1.0, -2.933, -2.667]
team_run_error_on_losses	regressing	[6.4, 6.75, 6.0, 5.286, 5.333, 3.8, 6.75, 5.6, 6.5, 5.0, 6.143]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	8/15	53.3%	2.884	4.112	4.202
variance_applied	7/15	46.7%	2.833	3.933	4.2
enhanced_prediction	8/15	53.3%	3.033	4.467	4.2
embedded_savant_run_environment	8/15	53.3%	3	4.267	4.133
fundamental_edge_target_review	8/15	53.3%	3	4.267	4.133
capped_target	8/15	53.3%	3	4.267	4.133
simulation_result	8/15	53.3%	3	4.267	4.133
published_final	8/15	53.3%	3	4.267	4.133

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.0666	-1	-0.0503	-0.002	LAA@WAS: WAS → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.0666	1	0.2	0	LAA@WAS: TIE → LAA; PHI@ATL: ATL → PHI; PIT@CHC: PIT → CHC; SD@SF: SF → SD
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	-0.0333	-0.0667
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
BAL@TOR	hit	0.646	0.5871	0.5871	0.5834	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHW@STL	miss	0.6585	0.6339	0.6339	0.6068	0.5908	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
CIN@MIL	hit	0.7249	0.7235	0.7235	0.7235	0.54	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CLE@MIN	miss	0.5951	0.5578	0.5578	0.5578	0.5412	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
COL@DET	hit	0.7568	0.7296	0.7296	0.693	0.5989	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
HOU@TB	hit	0.5702	0.5437	0.5437	0.5437	0.5315	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
KC@BOS	hit	0.5915	0.5523	0.5523	0.5523	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAA@WAS	miss	0.5	0.5078	0.5078	0.5078	0.5056	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
LAD@MIA	miss	0.6979	0.6956	0.6956	0.6956	0.6	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYM@NYY	miss	0.5478	0.5392	0.5392	0.5392	0.5392	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
PHI@ATL	miss	0.5	0.5065	0.5065	0.5065	0.505	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
PIT@CHC	hit	0.5	0.5547	0.5547	0.5547	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SD@SF	hit	0.5	0.5078	0.5078	0.5078	0.505	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
SEA@OAK	hit	0.5574	0.5346	0.5346	0.5346	0.525	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TEX@ARI	miss	0.5911	0.5834	0.5834	0.5816	0.5589	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
30	6	7	4	13	1.35	0.57

Game	Trained p(home)	Blended p(home)	Blend favoured	Published p(home)	Published side	Artifact says winner changed	Outcome
LAA@WAS	0.538	0.515	home	0.494	away	yes	miss
PHI@ATL	0.65	0.573	home	0.495	away	yes	miss
PIT@CHC	0.415	0.487	away	0.53	home	yes	hit
SD@SF	0.558	0.525	home	0.495	away	yes	hit

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260912	15	0.533	—	—
20260911	15	0.667	0.99	0.00	4	9
20260910	5	0.600	-3.19	-1.70		8
20260909	15	0.667	3.36	1.07	8	7
20260908	15	0.733	-0.15	-0.23	7	15
20260907	11	0.545	-0.86	-0.36	5	4
20260906	15	0.600	0.74	-0.30	6	10
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12
20260903	9	0.556	0.24	-0.83	4	6
20260902	15	0.333	0.72	0.30	7	6
20260901	15	0.467	1.48	1.07	9	3

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
BAL@TOR	1	4	-3
CHW@STL	1	1	0
CIN@MIL	4	4	0
CLE@MIN	2	1	1
COL@DET	3	4	-1
HOU@TB	1	1	0
KC@BOS	2	4	-2
LAA@WAS	1	1	0
LAD@MIA	3	1	2
NYM@NYY	2	10	-8
PHI@ATL	1	10	-9
PIT@CHC	1	1	0
SD@SF	1	1	0
SEA@OAK	1	18	-17
TEX@ARI	1	4	-3

BAL@TORHIT

Predicted: TOR 3-4 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: TOR 3-7Brier 0.221total bias -3

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias -3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.068, recent +0.330, pitcher -0.143, composite -0.015
confidence pipeline reached 0.587 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 3 (7 vs 10)
TOR offense under-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BAL	Kyle Bradish	4 ER / 16 outs	5 ER / 9 outs	1
TOR	Spencer Miles	2 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 6 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.931 / away×1.074; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jackson Holliday (BAL 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Alejandro Kirk (TOR C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Brett Bateman (TOR CF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Andrés Giménez (TOR SS): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Gunnar Henderson (BAL SS): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.64]

Starter miss: Kyle Bradish (BAL) posted 15.00 ERA vs projected 6.75 (5 ER in 9 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (4.45 ERA there vs 3.26 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

Kyle Bradish (BAL) threw 9 outs, 5 ER = 15 ERA against a projected 6.75 ERA (8.25 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 10 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Alejandro Kirk: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.308, average - a good day, not a model error
Brett Bateman: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error
Andrés Giménez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.274, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Spencer Miles (TOR) threw 6 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Gunnar Henderson: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.318, average - a good day, not a model error
Pete Alonso: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.395, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material. exp BB and exp SO are the continuous rate expectations. The integer beside each is a simulation draw reconciled to the opposing simulated batting box, so it is not the line that ranks pitchers: on the 2026-09-07 slate the integers published 39 walks and 121 strikeouts against 51 and 130 real, while these expectations landed on 50.4 and 132.6.)

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
BAL	Kyle Bradish (Starter)	9 / 16	15 / 6.75 (+8.25)	5 / 4	8 / 6	2 / 0	2 / 2	2.74	2 / 6	5.17	venue away: 4.45 vs 3.26 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
TOR	Spencer Miles (Starter)	6 / 15	0 / 3.6 (-3.60)	0 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	0.65	5 / 4	1.86	venue home: 6 vs 9 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.07 (average) · 45 prior appearances this season
TOR	Louis Varland (Closer)	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.3	2 / 1	1
TOR	Tyler Rogers (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.3	1 / 2	0.46
TOR	Mason Fluharty (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	1 / 0	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.26	1 / 2	0.61

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jackson Holliday (2B)	BAL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.293 below average	projection too high
Alejandro Kirk (C)	TOR	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.308 average	no signal
Brett Bateman (CF)	TOR	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0.93	0.312 average	no signal
Andrés Giménez (SS)	TOR	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.274 weak	good day
Gunnar Henderson (SS)	BAL	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.318 average	no signal
Samuel Basallo (C)	BAL	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.321 above average	—
Leody Taveras (RF)	BAL	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.27 weak	—
Dylan Beavers (LF)	BAL	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.301 below average	—
Ernie Clement (2B)	TOR	0 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.261 weak	—
Pete Alonso (1B)	BAL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.33	0.395 elite	—
Myles Straw (LF)	TOR	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.297 below average	—
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	TOR	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.31	0.334 above average	—
Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	TOR	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	-0.27	0.329 above average	—
George Springer (DH)	TOR	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.306 average	—
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	BAL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.345 elite	—
Colton Cowser (CF)	BAL	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.316 average	—
Coby Mayo (DH)	BAL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 2	0	0.327 above average	—
Nathan Lukes (RF)	TOR	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.287 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.068	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.33	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.143	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.015	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.23-5.51	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.23-5.51	3-6	0.727	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-6	3-4	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BAL	Jackson Holliday	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.089
TOR	Brett Bateman	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.07
TOR	Ernie Clement	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.618
TOR	Alejandro Kirk	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.44
TOR	Andrés Giménez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.331
TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_H -1.15
TOR	Nathan Lukes	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.15
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.13

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=9).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Jackson Holliday: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Springer: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHW@STLMISS

Predicted: STL 3-4 (conf +0.18, moderate)Actual: CHW 6-5Brier 0.349total bias -4

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.18 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.037, recent +0.834, pitcher -0.034, composite +0.294
confidence pipeline reached 0.634 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.591
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (7 vs 11)
CHW offense under-projected by 3
committed to STL at 0.18 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHW	Sean Newcomb	2 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 4 outs	-1
STL	Kyle Leahy	0 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.994 / away×1.028; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Joshua Baez (STL LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Jordan Walker (STL RF): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Masyn Winn (STL SS): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Kyle Teel (CHW C): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]

Starter miss: Sean Newcomb (CHW) posted 6.75 ERA vs projected 3.60 (1 ER in 4 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Sean Newcomb (CHW) threw 4 outs, 1 ER = 6.75 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (3.15 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Masyn Winn: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.298, below average - a good day, not a model error
Leonardo Bernal: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.372, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Kyle Leahy (STL) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 11 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Kyle Teel: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.315, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CHW	Sean Newcomb (Starter)	4 / 15	6.75 / 3.6 (+3.15)	1 / 2	1 / 3	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.67	4 / 7	4.66	venue away: 0 vs 0 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 53 prior appearances this season
STL	Kyle Leahy (Starter)	9 / 15	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 5	1.04	4 / 3	4.85	venue home: 2.91 vs 3.94 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
STL	Justin Bruihl (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.34	1 / 1	0.75
STL	Riley O'Brien (Closer)	3 / 4	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.5	2 / 0	0.91
STL	Ryne Stanek (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.44	1 / 1	0.99
STL	George Soriano (Setup Man)	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.38	1 / 2	0.65

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Joshua Baez (LF)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.316 average	no signal
Munetaka Murakami (1B)	CHW	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.93	0.342 elite	bad day
Jordan Walker (RF)	STL	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.343 elite	bad day
Masyn Winn (SS)	STL	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.298 below average	good day
Kyle Teel (C)	CHW	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0.66	0.315 average	no signal
Leonardo Bernal (C)	STL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.372 elite	projection too low
Braden Montgomery (RF)	CHW	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.331 above average	—
Andrew Benintendi (DH)	CHW	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.309 average	—
José Fermín (CF)	STL	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 0	-0.45	0.289 below average	—
Miguel Vargas (3B)	CHW	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.33	0.379 elite	—
Tristan Peters (CF)	CHW	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.31	0.317 average	—
Colson Montgomery (SS)	CHW	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.304 average	—
Sam Antonacci (LF)	CHW	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.342 elite	—
Chase Meidroth (2B)	CHW	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.296 below average	—
Alec Burleson (1B)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.375 elite	—
Iván Herrera (DH)	STL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	-0.14	0.331 above average	—
Thomas Saggese (2B)	STL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.314 average	—
Ramón Urías (3B)	STL	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.303 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.037	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.834	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.034	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.294	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.62-4.68	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.591	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.62-4.68	4-5	-0.06	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
STL	Leonardo Bernal	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.18
CHW	Miguel Vargas	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -2.05
CHW	Andrew Benintendi	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB 1.977
STL	Jordan Walker	batter / RF	deboosted	predicted_AB -1.8
STL	José Fermín	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.592
STL	Alec Burleson	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.28
CHW	Kyle Teel	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO -1.269
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / SS	deboosted	predicted_H 1.26

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=7).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Teel: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ramón Urías: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Masyn Winn: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CIN@MILHIT

Predicted: MIL 6-10 (conf +0.08, lean)Actual: MIL 9-13Brier 0.212total bias -6

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias -6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +2.038, recent +1.126, pitcher +0.057, composite +2.247
confidence pipeline reached 0.724 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.540
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 6 (16 vs 22)
CIN offense under-projected by 3
MIL offense under-projected by 3
Shane Drohan (MIL) allowed 3 more ER than projected (5 vs 2)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CIN	Brady Singer	6 ER / 15 outs	8 ER / 12 outs	2
MIL	Shane Drohan	2 ER / 15 outs	5 ER / 11 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.021 / away×0.964; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Garrett Mitchell (MIL CF): 4-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.32]
Eugenio Suárez (CIN DH): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.2]
Juan Brito (CIN 3B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Cooper Pratt (MIL SS): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.72]
William Contreras (MIL C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.59]

Starter miss: Shane Drohan (MIL) posted 12.27 ERA vs projected 3.60 (5 ER in 11 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Brady Singer (CIN) threw 12 outs, 8 ER = 18 ERA against a projected 10.8 ERA (7.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 5 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 13 runs on 14 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (7 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Garrett Mitchell: 4-for-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI [+2.32 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.356, elite - real projection error
Cooper Pratt: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.72 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
William Contreras: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.59 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Shane Drohan (MIL) threw 11 outs, 5 ER = 12.27 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (8.67 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 14 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Eugenio Suárez: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+2.2 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error
Juan Brito: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error
Elly De La Cruz: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.373, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CIN	Brady Singer (Starter)	12 / 15	18 / 10.8 (+7.20)	8 / 6	8 / 8	3 / 0	5 / 1	2.56	5 / 4	4.63	venue away: 5.67 vs 4.5 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.02 (strong) · 28 prior appearances this season
CIN	Emilio Pagán (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	1 / 1	1.07
CIN	Graham Ashcraft (Reliever)	1 / 0	135 / n/a	5 / 3	6 / 2	0 / 1	1 / 0	n/a	1 / 2	n/a
MIL	Shane Drohan (Starter)	11 / 15	12.27 / 3.6 (+8.67)	5 / 2	5 / 4	2 / 0	2 / 1	2.5	4 / 5	5.13	venue home: 5.01 vs 4.61 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
MIL	Aaron Ashby (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.53	0 / 0	1.27
MIL	Abner Uribe (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.3	2 / 1	1.07
MIL	Antonio Senzatela (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 6	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 3	0 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.54	1 / 1	0.7

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Garrett Mitchell (CF)	MIL	5 / 3	4 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2.32	0.356 elite	projection too low
Eugenio Suárez (DH)	CIN	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 2	2.2	0.299 below average	good day
Juan Brito (3B)	CIN	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.292 below average	good day
Cooper Pratt (SS)	MIL	5 / 3	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.72	0.313 average	no signal
William Contreras (C)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	1.59	0.336 above average	projection too low
Brice Turang (2B)	MIL	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.09	0.345 elite	projection too low
Jake Bauers (1B)	MIL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.93	0.38 elite	bad day
Elly De La Cruz (SS)	CIN	5 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 2	0.76	0.373 elite	projection too low
Dane Myers (CF)	CIN	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.64	0.31 average	no signal
Sal Stewart (1B)	CIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.6	0.35 elite	bad day
Sal Frelick (RF)	MIL	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.281 weak	—
David Hamilton (3B)	MIL	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.274 weak	—
JJ Bleday (LF)	CIN	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.45	0.342 elite	—
Jackson Chourio (LF)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.35	0.342 elite	—
Christian Yelich (DH)	MIL	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.312 average	—
Tyler Stephenson (C)	CIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.02	0.333 above average	—
Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.266 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	2.038	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.126	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.057	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	2.247	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4-5.55	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-9	0.54	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-10	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-10	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-10	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-10	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4-5.55	4-6	0.446	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	6-9	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-9	6-10	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-10	6-10	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-10	6-10	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-10	6-10	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	Sal Frelick	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 6.67
CIN	Graham Ashcraft	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_ER 3
MIL	Jake Bauers	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 2.39
MIL	Christian Yelich	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB 2.243
MIL	William Contreras	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI -2.22
CIN	Tyler Stephenson	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 2.1
CIN	JJ Bleday	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 2.052
MIL	Garrett Mitchell	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 1.84

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=9, sim=10).	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=47; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=11, sim=10).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=48; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=10; R: current=6, sim=10; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=6, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Frelick: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=7; Jackson Chourio: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CLE@MINMISS

Predicted: CLE 6-4 (conf -0.08, lean)Actual: MIN 3-4Brier 0.293total bias +3

Root cause: Several errors of similar size

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.179, recent +0.066, pitcher +0.067, composite -0.295
confidence pipeline reached 0.558 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.459
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (10 vs 7)
CLE offense over-projected by 3
Daniel Espino (CLE) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CLE	Daniel Espino	3 ER / 9 outs	0 ER / 6 outs	-3
MIN	Connor Prielipp	4 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 16 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.933; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

José Ramírez (CLE DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Jo Adell (CLE LF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Kody Clemens (MIN 2B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Chase DeLauter (CLE RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Luke Keaschall (MIN RF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.64]

Starter miss: Daniel Espino (CLE) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 9.00 (0 ER in 6 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Daniel Espino (CLE) threw 6 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-9 ERA error) only 9 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Royce Lewis: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Connor Prielipp (MIN) threw 16 outs, 3 ER = 5.06 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-2.14 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 11 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 3 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CLE	Daniel Espino (Starter)	6 / 9	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 3	1 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 2	1.25	2 / 4	4.92	opp run factor 1 (average) · 9 prior appearances this season
MIN	Connor Prielipp (Starter)	16 / 15	5.06 / 7.2	3 / 4	5 / 7	0 / 2	0 / 3	2.33	1 / 0	5.27	venue home: 4.83 vs 6.4 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 21 prior appearances this season
MIN	A.J. Minter (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.25	2 / 0	0.82
MIN	Jeff Hoffman (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.32	3 / 0	1.37
MIN	Andrew Morris (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.37	0 / 0	0.86
MIN	Kody Funderburk (Middle Reliever)	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.51	3 / 1	0.92

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
José Ramírez (DH)	CLE	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.326 above average	bad day
Jo Adell (LF)	CLE	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.325 above average	bad day
Kody Clemens (2B)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.337 above average	bad day
Chase DeLauter (RF)	CLE	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.344 elite	bad day
Luke Keaschall (RF)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.64	0.315 average	no signal
Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	CLE	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.338 above average	—
Brayan Rocchio (SS)	CLE	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.293 below average	—
Kaelen Culpepper (SS)	MIN	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.304 average	—
Steven Kwan (CF)	CLE	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.33	0.322 above average	—
Royce Lewis (1B)	MIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.312 average	—
Brooks Lee (3B)	MIN	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.16	0.275 weak	—
Josh Bell (DH)	MIN	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.333 above average	—
Travis Bazzana (2B)	CLE	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.307 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.179	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.066	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.067	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.295	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.29-3.01	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.541	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.29-3.01	5-3	-0.276	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	6-5	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	6-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	6-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	6-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Brayan Rocchio	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 4.43
MIN	Luke Keaschall	batter / RF	better	predicted_2B 1.818
CLE	Angel Genao	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_H 1.63
MIN	Brooks Lee	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.46
MIN	Kody Clemens	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -1.45
CLE	Steven Kwan	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 1.371
CLE	Jo Adell	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.215
CLE	Daniel Espino	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_IP -1

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=1; SF: current=0, sim=1).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: BB current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

COL@DETHIT

Predicted: DET 4-7 (conf +0.20, moderate)Actual: DET 7-11Brier 0.161total bias -7

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.20 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias -7
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.208, recent +0.814, pitcher +0.057, composite +1.534
confidence pipeline reached 0.730 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.599
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 7 (11 vs 18)
COL offense under-projected by 3
DET offense under-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
COL	Tanner Gordon	3 ER / 15 outs	4 ER / 12 outs	1
DET	Andrew Sears	3 ER / 12 outs	4 ER / 13 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.053 / away×0.996; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Hao-Yu Lee (DET 2B): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.51]
Max Clark (DET CF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.58]
Ezequiel Tovar (COL SS): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Kevin McGonigle (DET 3B): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Brett Callahan (DET RF): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]

Starter miss: Tanner Gordon (COL) posted 9.00 ERA vs projected 5.40 (4 ER in 12 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tanner Gordon (COL) threw 12 outs, 4 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 8 runs on 17 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Hao-Yu Lee: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+2.51 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.298, below average - a good day, not a model error
Max Clark: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.58 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Kevin McGonigle: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.354, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Andrew Sears (DET) threw 13 outs, 4 ER = 8.31 ERA against a projected 6.75 ERA (1.56 ERA error) only 3 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 12 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ezequiel Tovar: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.279, weak - a good day, not a model error
Connor Norby: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error
TJ Rumfield: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
COL	Tanner Gordon (Starter)	12 / 15	9 / 5.4 (+3.60)	4 / 3	10 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 1	1.06	5 / 10	3.33	venue away: 1.59 vs 8.04 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.05 (average) · 21 prior appearances this season
COL	Jordan Romano (Closer)	3 / 5	18 / 16.2	2 / 3	1 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 2	0.45	0 / 0	1.13
COL	Brennan Bernardino (Setup Man)	6 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.13	2 / 1	0.41
DET	Andrew Sears (Starter)	13 / 12	8.31 / 6.75	4 / 3	7 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 5	1.77	5 / 7	3.81	opp run factor 1 (average) · thin sample: 3 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
DET	Kenley Jansen (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.51	2 / 0	1.17
DET	Drew Sommers (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 5.4 (-5.40)	0 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.32	0 / 0	1.64

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Hao-Yu Lee (2B)	DET	5 / 4	3 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2.51	0.298 below average	good day
Max Clark (CF)	DET	4 / 3	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.58	0.323 above average	projection too low
Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	COL	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.279 weak	good day
Kevin McGonigle (3B)	DET	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1.4	0.354 elite	projection too low
Brett Callahan (RF)	DET	2 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.11	0.299 below average	good day
Connor Norby (2B)	COL	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.92	0.305 average	no signal
TJ Rumfield (1B)	COL	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.92	0.335 above average	projection too low
Eduardo Valencia (C)	DET	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.65	0.329 above average	projection too low
Cole Carrigg (CF)	COL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Jordan Beck (RF)	COL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	0.33	0.245 weak	—
Hunter Goodman (C)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.318 average	—
Kyle Karros (3B)	COL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.337 above average	—
Jake McCarthy (LF)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.321 above average	—
Adael Amador (DH)	COL	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.281 weak	—
Riley Greene (LF)	DET	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.17	0.372 elite	—
Colt Keith (DH)	DET	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.335 above average	—
John Peck (SS)	DET	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.355 elite	—
Spencer Torkelson (1B)	DET	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.309 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.208	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.814	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.057	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.534	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.8-5.88	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	0.599	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.8-5.88	4-6	-0.083	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	4-6	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	4-7	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-7	4-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-7	4-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-7	4-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
COL	Jake McCarthy	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -2.67
DET	Kevin McGonigle	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.557
COL	TJ Rumfield	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 2.432
COL	Hunter Goodman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.13
DET	Max Clark	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 2.111
DET	Riley Greene	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.863
DET	Hao-Yu Lee	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.65
DET	John Peck	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.375

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: HBP current=0 box=1; Eduardo Valencia: SO current=1 box=2; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; John Peck: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	DET
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

HOU@TBHIT

Predicted: TB 4-5 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: TB 2-3Brier 0.219total bias +4

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.615, recent +0.240, pitcher -0.022, composite +0.528
confidence pipeline reached 0.544 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.532
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (9 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
HOU	Peter Lambert	1 ER / 16 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	2
TB	Ian Seymour	2 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.986 / away×1.008; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Junior Caminero (TB 3B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Yainer Diaz (HOU C): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Victor Mesa Jr. (TB RF): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]
Isaac Paredes (HOU 3B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.6]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Peter Lambert (HOU) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 1.69 ERA (2.81 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Victor Mesa Jr.: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.334, above average - real projection error
Liam Hicks: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Ian Seymour (TB) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-0.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 7 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Yainer Diaz: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error
Isaac Paredes: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.322, above average - real projection error
Jose Altuve: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.273, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Peter Lambert (Starter)	18 / 16	4.5 / 1.69	3 / 1	6 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	2.32	4 / 3	4.97	venue away: 3 vs 4.03 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 25 prior appearances this season
TB	Ian Seymour (Starter)	18 / 15	3 / 3.6	2 / 2	4 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 3	0.95	10 / 6	5.54	venue home: 5.35 vs 3.75 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 43 prior appearances this season
TB	Tyler Wells (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.28	2 / 0	1.07
TB	Bryan Baker (Closer)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.38	1 / 1	0.79

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Junior Caminero (3B)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.26	0.362 elite	bad day
Yainer Diaz (C)	HOU	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.299 below average	good day
Victor Mesa Jr. (RF)	TB	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.66	0.334 above average	projection too low
Isaac Paredes (3B)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.6	0.322 above average	projection too low
Christian Walker (1B)	HOU	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.304 average	—
Daulton Varsho (CF)	HOU	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.287 below average	—
Yandy Díaz (DH)	TB	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.35 elite	—
Jorge Mateo (SS)	TB	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.29 below average	—
Jeremy Peña (SS)	HOU	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.45	0.321 above average	—
Jose Altuve (2B)	HOU	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.273 weak	—
Richie Palacios (2B)	TB	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.33	0.309 average	—
Liam Hicks (C)	TB	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.317 average	—
Jonathan Aranda (1B)	TB	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.31	0.348 elite	—
Cam Smith (RF)	HOU	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.32 average	—
Chandler Simpson (LF)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.264 weak	—
Cedric Mullins (CF)	TB	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.266 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.615	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.24	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.022	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.528	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.84-4.71	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.532	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.84-4.71	4-5	0.134	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
HOU	Yainer Diaz	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 2.385
TB	Liam Hicks	batter / C	better	predicted_AB -1.9
HOU	Daulton Varsho	batter / CF	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.68
TB	Junior Caminero	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.6
HOU	Nelson Velázquez	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.57
TB	Yandy Díaz	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H -1.41
TB	Jonathan Aranda	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB -1.32
TB	Victor Mesa Jr.	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.288

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: 2B current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nelson Velázquez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=5).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cedric Mullins: SO current=1 box=0	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

KC@BOSHIT

Predicted: BOS 4-6 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: BOS 1-5Brier 0.221total bias +4

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.857, recent +0.251, pitcher +0.041, composite +0.984
confidence pipeline reached 0.552 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (10 vs 6)
KC offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
KC	Randy Dobnak	3 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 17 outs	0
BOS	Ranger Suarez	3 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.972 / away×0.931; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jac Caglianone (KC RF): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Wilyer Abreu (BOS RF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
Isaac Collins (KC 2B): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Nick Loftin (KC 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Nick Sogard (BOS 2B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.76]

Starter miss: Ranger Suarez (BOS) posted 1.29 ERA vs projected 5.06 (1 ER in 21 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (4.14 ERA there vs 2.95 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Randy Dobnak (KC) threw 17 outs, 3 ER = 4.76 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (0.26 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nick Sogard: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Trevor Story: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.251, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Ranger Suarez (BOS) threw 21 outs, 1 ER = 1.29 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (-3.77 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Carter Jensen: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.315, average - a good day, not a model error
Salvador Perez: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Vinnie Pasquantino: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
KC	Randy Dobnak (Starter)	17 / 18	4.76 / 4.5	3 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.83	4 / 5	4.15	venue away: 1.14 vs 3.86 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (average) · 12 prior appearances this season
BOS	Ranger Suarez (Starter)	21 / 16	1.29 / 5.06 (-3.77)	1 / 3	5 / 5	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.89	8 / 7	3.62	venue home: 4.14 vs 2.95 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 25 prior appearances this season
BOS	Aroldis Chapman (Closer)	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.34	0 / 1	1.4
BOS	Garrett Whitlock (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.12	3 / 1	1.24

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jac Caglianone (RF)	KC	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.355 elite	bad day
Wilyer Abreu (RF)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.95	0.352 elite	bad day
Isaac Collins (2B)	KC	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.297 below average	projection too high
Nick Loftin (3B)	KC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.78	0.29 below average	projection too high
Nick Sogard (2B)	BOS	3 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.76	0.316 average	no signal
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.381 elite	bad day
Carter Jensen (DH)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.6	0.315 average	no signal
Kyle Isbel (CF)	KC	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.261 weak	—
Jarren Duran (LF)	BOS	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.298 below average	—
Salvador Perez (C)	KC	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.311 average	—
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.329 above average	—
Trevor Story (SS)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.251 weak	—
Roman Anthony (DH)	BOS	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.349 elite	—
Adley Rutschman (C)	BOS	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.16	0.335 above average	—
Mickey Gasper (1B)	BOS	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.371 elite	—
Caleb Durbin (3B)	BOS	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.292 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.857	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.251	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.041	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.984	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.81-5.26	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.81-5.26	4-5	-0.452	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-6	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BOS	Roman Anthony	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 3.786
BOS	Nick Sogard	batter / 2B	better	predicted_2B 1.8
BOS	Jarren Duran	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.58
BOS	Caleb Durbin	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.53
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 1.5
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.34
KC	Isaac Collins	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.185
BOS	Adley Rutschman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.14

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trevor Story: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nate Eaton: SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=11).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Tolbert: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0	KC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAA@WASMISS

Predicted: LAA 4-3 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: WAS 5-6Brier 0.256total bias -4

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.275, recent -0.022, pitcher -0.035, composite -0.111
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.494
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (7 vs 11)
WAS offense under-projected by 3
Walbert Ureña (LAA) allowed 3 more ER than projected (4 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAA	Walbert Ureña	1 ER / 18 outs	4 ER / 18 outs	3
WAS	Andrew Alvarez	0 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.925 / away×0.959; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Zach Neto (LAA SS): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Abimelec Ortiz (WAS 1B): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Keibert Ruiz (WAS C): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
James Wood (WAS DH): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Moisés Ballesteros (LAA DH): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Walbert Ureña (LAA) posted 6.00 ERA vs projected 1.50 (4 ER in 18 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (3.31 ERA there vs 2.42 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Walbert Ureña (LAA) threw 18 outs, 4 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 1.5 ERA (4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Abimelec Ortiz: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error
Keibert Ruiz: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jacob Young: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Andrew Alvarez (WAS) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jose Siri: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error
Denzer Guzman: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.267, weak - a good day, not a model error
Vaughn Grissom: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAA	Walbert Ureña (Starter)	18 / 18	6 / 1.5 (+4.50)	4 / 1	9 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 1	2.3	7 / 6	5.91	venue away: 3.31 vs 2.42 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.92 (strong) · 26 prior appearances this season
LAA	Ben Joyce (Closer)	3 / 3	9 / 9	1 / 1	1 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.62	1 / 0	1.36
WAS	Andrew Alvarez (Starter)	21 / 15	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 0	2.19	8 / 8	4.79	venue home: 3.26 vs 3.79 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (weak) · 22 prior appearances this season
WAS	Brad Lord (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	27 / 13.5 (+13.50)	3 / 2	2 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 2	0.65	1 / 2	1.57

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Zach Neto (SS)	LAA	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.31 average	no signal
Abimelec Ortiz (1B)	WAS	2 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.29 below average	good day
Keibert Ruiz (C)	WAS	4 / 3	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.94	0.289 below average	good day
James Wood (DH)	WAS	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 1	-0.93	0.413 elite	bad day
Moisés Ballesteros (DH)	LAA	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.293 below average	projection too high
Dylan Crews (RF)	WAS	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.311 average	no signal
Jose Siri (LF)	LAA	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.305 average	no signal
Denzer Guzman (3B)	LAA	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.267 weak	good day
Vaughn Grissom (1B)	LAA	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0.62	0.305 average	no signal
Christian Moore (2B)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.245 weak	—
Brady House (3B)	WAS	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.338 above average	—
Jacob Young (CF)	WAS	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.314 average	—
Mike Trout (CF)	LAA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	-0.45	0.377 elite	—
Jorbit Vivas (2B)	WAS	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 0	0.45	0.295 below average	—
Wade Meckler (RF)	LAA	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.314 average	—
CJ Abrams (SS)	WAS	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.33 above average	—
Daylen Lile (LF)	WAS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.326 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.275	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.022	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.035	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.111	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.84-4.93	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.506	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.84-4.93	5-5	0.086	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	4-3	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAA	Travis d'Arnaud	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 2.86
WAS	CJ Abrams	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.929
LAA	Mike Trout	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.73
WAS	Keibert Ruiz	batter / C	better	predicted_H 1.66
LAA	Jose Siri	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.493
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 1.222
WAS	Brady House	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H 1.13
WAS	James Wood	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H -1.016

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=10).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wade Meckler: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=2; SF: current=0, sim=1).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brady House: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: BB current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAD@MIAMISS

Predicted: LAD 7-4 (conf -0.20, strong)Actual: MIA 3-4Brier 0.36total bias +4

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.20 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.178, recent -0.868, pitcher -0.056, composite -1.528
confidence pipeline reached 0.696 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.400
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (11 vs 7)
LAD offense over-projected by 4
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) allowed 4 more ER than projected (4 vs 0)
committed to LAD at 0.20 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAD	Tyler Glasnow	0 ER / 18 outs	4 ER / 12 outs	4
MIA	Tyler Phillips	3 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 11 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.977 / away×1.032; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Graham Pauley (MIA 3B): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Mookie Betts (LAD SS): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Griffin Conine (MIA 1B): 3-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Freddie Freeman (LAD 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Kyle Stowers (MIA DH): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]

Starter miss: Tyler Glasnow (LAD) posted 9.00 ERA vs projected 0.00 (4 ER in 12 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) threw 12 outs, 4 ER = 9 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (9 ERA error) only 10 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Graham Pauley: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.247, weak - a good day, not a model error
Griffin Conine: 3-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.368, elite - real projection error
Otto Lopez: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Tyler Phillips (MIA) threw 11 outs, 2 ER = 4.91 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-0.49 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Mookie Betts: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
Alex Freeland: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.288, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAD	Tyler Glasnow (Starter)	12 / 18	9 / 0 (+9.00)	4 / 0	5 / 2	1 / 0	4 / 1	2.01	7 / 6	6.25	venue away: 2.12 vs 4.56 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 10 prior appearances this season
MIA	Tyler Phillips (Starter)	11 / 15	4.91 / 5.4	2 / 3	2 / 4	2 / 0	3 / 5	1.57	3 / 2	4.33	venue home: 3.02 vs 5.82 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (strong) · 34 prior appearances this season
MIA	Calvin Faucher (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.52	0 / 2	1.06
MIA	Michael Petersen (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.48	1 / 1	1.14
MIA	Tyler Zuber (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.35	1 / 2	1.11

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Graham Pauley (3B)	MIA	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.247 weak	good day
Mookie Betts (SS)	LAD	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1.26	0.335 above average	projection too low
Griffin Conine (1B)	MIA	3 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.25	0.368 elite	projection too low
Freddie Freeman (1B)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.368 elite	bad day
Kyle Stowers (DH)	MIA	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 2	-1.11	0.328 above average	bad day
Heriberto Hernández (LF)	MIA	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.352 elite	bad day
Will Smith (C)	LAD	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.8	0.382 elite	bad day
Kyle Tucker (RF)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.327 above average	bad day
Otto Lopez (SS)	MIA	2 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.327 above average	projection too low
Tommy Edman (CF)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Alex Freeland (2B)	LAD	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.288 below average	—
Jakob Marsee (CF)	MIA	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.308 average	—
Joe Mack (C)	MIA	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.289 below average	—
Max Muncy (3B)	LAD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.35 elite	—
Owen Caissie (RF)	MIA	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.302 below average	—
Josue De Paula (DH)	LAD	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.542 elite	—
Teoscar Hernández (LF)	LAD	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.331 above average	—
Javier Sanoja (2B)	MIA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.292 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.178	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.868	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.056	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.528	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.08-2.92	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-4	0.6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.08-2.92	5-3	-0.166	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	7-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-4	7-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-4	7-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-4	7-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-4	7-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIA	Heriberto Hernández	batter / LF	worse	predicted_RBI 2.42
LAD	Mookie Betts	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 2.25
LAD	Josue De Paula	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 2
LAD	Teoscar Hernández	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.945
MIA	Otto Lopez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H -1.84
LAD	Alex Freeland	batter / 2B	deboosted	predicted_RBI 1.78
MIA	Owen Caissie	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H 1.69
LAD	Freddie Freeman	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.57

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Will Smith: R current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9; ER: current=6, sim=7).	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3; Jakob Marsee: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYM@NYYMISS

Predicted: NYY 5-7 (conf +0.08, lean)Actual: NYM 12-2Brier 0.291total bias -2

Root cause: Small edge on the losing side

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 12; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.882, recent -0.012, pitcher -0.014, composite +0.811
confidence pipeline reached 0.539 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.539
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

NYM offense under-projected by 7
NYY offense over-projected by 5

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYM	Zac Thornton	0 ER / 16 outs	2 ER / 21 outs	2
NYY	Gerrit Cole	3 ER / 18 outs	5 ER / 13 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.982 / away×0.996; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Francisco Lindor (NYM SS): 3-for-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.16]
Aaron Judge (NYY DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Jared Young (NYM 1B): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Carson Benge (NYM RF): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Cody Bellinger (NYY LF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]

Starter miss: Gerrit Cole (NYY) posted 10.38 ERA vs projected 4.50 (5 ER in 13 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Zac Thornton (NYM) threw 21 outs, 2 ER = 2.57 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (2.57 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Cody Bellinger: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.338, above average - real projection error
Spencer Jones: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Gerrit Cole (NYY) threw 13 outs, 5 ER = 10.38 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (5.88 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 11 hits and 5 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Francisco Lindor: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI [+2.16 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Jared Young: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error
Carson Benge: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.334, above average - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
NYM	Zac Thornton (Starter)	21 / 16	2.57 / 0	2 / 0	5 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 6	0.89	4 / 7	4.29	venue away: 2.95 vs 3.8 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (strong) · 12 prior appearances this season
NYY	Gerrit Cole (Starter)	13 / 18	10.38 / 4.5 (+5.88)	5 / 3	9 / 6	3 / 1	0 / 1	1.1	4 / 3	6.33	venue home: 3.35 vs 3.45 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 19 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Francisco Lindor (SS)	NYM	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	5 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2.16	0.333 above average	projection too low
Aaron Judge (DH)	NYY	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.403 elite	bad day
Jared Young (1B)	NYM	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.56	0.314 average	no signal
Carson Benge (RF)	NYM	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.334 above average	projection too low
Cody Bellinger (LF)	NYY	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.07	0.338 above average	projection too low
Anthony Volpe (2B)	NYY	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.289 below average	projection too high
A.J. Ewing (CF)	NYM	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.322 above average	—
Bo Bichette (3B)	NYM	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.329 above average	—
Amed Rosario (3B)	NYY	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.312 average	—
Spencer Jones (CF)	NYY	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.331 above average	—
Juan Soto (DH)	NYM	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.45	0.413 elite	—
George Lombard Jr. (SS)	NYY	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.265 weak	—
Marcus Semien (2B)	NYM	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.305 average	—
Heliot Ramos (RF)	NYY	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.327 above average	—
Paul Goldschmidt (1B)	NYY	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.315 average	—
Austin Wells (C)	NYY	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.288 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.882	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.012	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.014	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.811	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.27-4.92	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.27-4.92	4-5	0.35	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-6	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-7	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	5-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	5-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	5-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYY	Amed Rosario	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 2.289
NYM	Zac Thornton	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
NYY	Gerrit Cole	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_ER -2
NYY	Spencer Jones	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 1.93
NYY	Heliot Ramos	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.918
NYM	Kodai Senga	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_IP 1.767
NYM	Jared Young	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.76
NYY	Austin Wells	batter / C	worse	predicted_BB 1.633

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=11; ER: current=6, sim=7).	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=3).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; A.J. Ewing: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jared Young: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=41; H: current=8, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=10).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Amed Rosario: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Anthony Volpe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PHI@ATLMISS

Predicted: PHI 4-3 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: ATL 2-12Brier 0.255total bias -7

Root cause: Run environment far higher than projected (under-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 11; total bias -7
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.365, recent +0.078, pitcher -0.012, composite +0.013
confidence pipeline reached 0.506 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.495
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 7 (7 vs 14)
ATL offense under-projected by 9

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PHI	Tim Mayza	1 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 9 outs	-1
ATL	Tyler Mahle	3 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.004 / away×1.017; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Michael Harris II (ATL CF): 4-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.34]
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL DH): 3-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Kyle Schwarber (PHI DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Justin Crawford (PHI CF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]

Starter miss: Tyler Mahle (ATL) posted 1.29 ERA vs projected 4.76 (1 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tim Mayza (PHI) threw 9 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (-1.8 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 11 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (6 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Michael Harris II: 4-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+2.34 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.34, elite - real projection error
Ronald Acuña Jr.: 3-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.362, elite - real projection error
Ozzie Albies: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.281, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Tyler Mahle (ATL) threw 21 outs, 1 ER = 1.29 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-3.47 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 7 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Justin Crawford: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.286, below average - a good day, not a model error
Bryce Harper: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.389, elite - real projection error
Alec Bohm: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
PHI	Tim Mayza (Starter)	9 / 15	0 / 1.8	0 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.7	4 / 6	3.61	venue away: 3.86 vs 0 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (strong) · 54 prior appearances this season
PHI	Orion Kerkering (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0	0.56	2 / 0	0.83
ATL	Tyler Mahle (Starter)	21 / 17	1.29 / 4.76 (-3.47)	1 / 3	6 / 9	1 / 0	0 / 2	1.09	3 / 3	5.05	venue home: 2.4 vs 5.61 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Michael Harris II (CF)	ATL	5 / 4	4 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2.34	0.34 elite	projection too low
Ronald Acuña Jr. (DH)	ATL	3 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.87	0.362 elite	projection too low
Kyle Schwarber (DH)	PHI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.365 elite	bad day
Justin Crawford (CF)	PHI	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.4	0.286 below average	good day
Matt Olson (1B)	ATL	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.355 elite	bad day
Bryson Stott (3B)	PHI	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.327 above average	bad day
Brewer Hicklen (RF)	ATL	0 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.346 elite	bad day
Luis Arraez (2B)	PHI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.303 below average	projection too high
Bryce Harper (RF)	PHI	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.389 elite	projection too low
Alec Bohm (1B)	PHI	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.324 above average	—
Brandon Marsh (LF)	PHI	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.304 average	—
J.T. Realmuto (C)	PHI	2 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.323 above average	—
Ozzie Albies (2B)	ATL	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.281 weak	—
Austin Riley (3B)	ATL	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.3 below average	—
Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	ATL	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.229 weak	—
Drake Baldwin (C)	ATL	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.362 elite	—
Trea Turner (SS)	PHI	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.291 below average	—
Mauricio Dubón (LF)	ATL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.305 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.365	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.078	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.012	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.013	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.77-4.67	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.77-4.67	4-5	-0.1	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-3	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PHI	Luis Arraez	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 2.47
PHI	Justin Crawford	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 2.427
PHI	J.T. Realmuto	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 2.26
ATL	Brewer Hicklen	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H 1.77
ATL	Ronald Acuña Jr.	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 1.521
ATL	Drake Baldwin	batter / C	worse	predicted_H -1.35
PHI	Kyle Schwarber	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -1.3
ATL	Austin Riley	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO -1.234

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=1).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ozzie Albies: 2B current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brewer Hicklen: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=3 box=4; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1	PHI
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PIT@CHCHIT

Predicted: CHC 4-5 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: CHC 3-4Brier 0.221total bias +2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.438, recent -0.094, pitcher -0.020, composite +0.353
confidence pipeline reached 0.555 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PIT	Paul Skenes	3 ER / 16 outs	2 ER / 21 outs	-1
CHC	Clay Holmes	2 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 17 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.981 / away×1.001; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Oneil Cruz (PIT CF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Pedro Ramirez (CHC 2B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.71]
Seiya Suzuki (CHC RF): 0-for-0, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Ryan O'Hearn (PIT DH): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Paul Skenes (PIT) threw 21 outs, 2 ER = 2.57 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (-2.49 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Pedro Ramirez: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.71 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Clay Holmes (CHC) threw 17 outs, 2 ER = 3.18 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 5 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ryan O'Hearn: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.315, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
PIT	Paul Skenes (Starter)	21 / 16	2.57 / 5.06	2 / 3	4 / 5	2 / 0	1 / 1	2.01	4 / 1	5.4	venue away: 4.01 vs 3.7 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (strong) · 29 prior appearances this season
PIT	Gregory Soto (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	18 / 13.5 (+4.50)	2 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.35	2 / 0	1.17
CHC	Clay Holmes (Starter)	17 / 17	3.18 / 3.18	2 / 2	5 / 5	1 / 0	4 / 3	2.29	6 / 5	3.65	venue home: 1.77 vs 3.77 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 15 prior appearances this season
CHC	Jacob Webb (Closer)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.45	1 / 1	0.96
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.64	1 / 0	1.24

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Oneil Cruz (CF)	PIT	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.358 elite	bad day
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.374 elite	bad day
Pedro Ramirez (2B)	CHC	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.71	0.29 below average	good day
Seiya Suzuki (RF)	CHC	0 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-1.4	0.341 elite	bad day
Ryan O'Hearn (DH)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.315 average	no signal
Bryan Reynolds (LF)	PIT	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.64	0.359 elite	bad day
Brandon Lowe (2B)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.6	0.321 above average	bad day
Konnor Griffin (SS)	PIT	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.303 below average	—
Ian Happ (LF)	CHC	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.316 average	—
Carson Kelly (C)	CHC	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.31 average	—
Michael Busch (1B)	CHC	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.29	0.33 above average	—
Spencer Horwitz (1B)	PIT	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.311 average	—
Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	PIT	1 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.335 above average	—
Nico Hoerner (SS)	CHC	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.324 above average	—
Alex Bregman (3B)	CHC	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.321 above average	—
Michael Conforto (DH)	CHC	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.33 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.438	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.094	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.02	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.353	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.02-4.06	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.02-4.06	5-4	-0.042	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-5	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB -2.44
PIT	Konnor Griffin	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.877
CHC	Pedro Ramirez	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.61
CHC	Michael Conforto	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
PIT	Oneil Cruz	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO -1.488
PIT	Esmerlyn Valdez	batter / RF	better	predicted_SO -1.478
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.33
CHC	Ian Happ	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO -1.268

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=0; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Konnor Griffin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Esmerlyn Valdez: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SD@SFHIT

Predicted: SD 5-4 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: SD 7-6Brier 0.245total bias -4

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.632, recent -0.518, pitcher -0.016, composite -0.693
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.495
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (9 vs 13)
Cesar Perdomo (SF) allowed 3 more ER than projected (5 vs 2)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SD	Michael King	3 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 21 outs	0
SF	Cesar Perdomo	2 ER / 15 outs	5 ER / 14 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.974 / away×0.99; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD 2B): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.08]
Manny Machado (SD 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Shay Whitcomb (SF 3B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Drew Gilbert (SF CF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Xander Bogaerts (SD SS): 4-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.39]

Starter miss: Cesar Perdomo (SF) posted 9.64 ERA vs projected 3.60 (5 ER in 14 outs). Thin prior record (2 prior appearances this season): high projection uncertainty.

What to do: Reduce game confidence for starters the feed has little on (scale by prior appearances); prefer priors and validate any run-param change in shadow.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Michael King (SD) threw 21 outs, 3 ER = 3.86 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-0.64 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 7 hits and 4 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Shay Whitcomb: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.27, weak - a good day, not a model error
Drew Gilbert: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error
Drew Cavanaugh: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Cesar Perdomo (SF) threw 14 outs, 5 ER = 9.64 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (6.04 ERA error) only 2 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 10 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 12 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+2.08 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.376, elite - real projection error
Xander Bogaerts: 4-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.39 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.318, average - a good day, not a model error
Jackson Merrill: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.347, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SD	Michael King (Starter)	21 / 18	3.86 / 4.5	3 / 3	5 / 4	2 / 0	0 / 2	2.3	4 / 9	4.89	venue away: 3.29 vs 2.74 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.97 (weak) · 29 prior appearances this season
SD	Adrian Morejon (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.29	2 / 0	1.34
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	0 / 3	n/a / 0	3 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0.22	0 / 1	1.28
SD	Mason Miller (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.42	2 / 1	1.97
SF	Cesar Perdomo (Starter)	14 / 15	9.64 / 3.6 (+6.04)	5 / 2	10 / 5	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.86	3 / 5	3.46	opp run factor 0.99 (average) · thin sample: 2 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
SF	Carson Seymour (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.62	1 / 1	0.72
SF	Dylan Smith (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.45	0 / 2	1.15
SF	Jason Foley (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.42	0 / 0	0.53
SF	Reiver Sanmartin (Middle Reliever)	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0 / 0	0.69

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Fernando Tatis Jr. (2B)	SD	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 0	0 / 1	2.08	0.376 elite	projection too low
Manny Machado (3B)	SD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-1.4	0.337 above average	bad day
Shay Whitcomb (3B)	SF	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.27 weak	good day
Drew Gilbert (CF)	SF	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.328 above average	projection too low
Xander Bogaerts (SS)	SD	5 / 4	4 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1.39	0.318 average	no signal
Jackson Merrill (CF)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.26	0.347 elite	projection too low
Bryce Eldridge (1B)	SF	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.354 elite	bad day
Drew Cavanaugh (C)	SF	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.93	0.314 average	no signal
Turner Hill (LF)	SF	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.8	0.316 average	no signal
Austin Hays (RF)	SD	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.289 below average	good day
Christian Koss (SS)	SF	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.255 weak	—
Luis Campusano (DH)	SD	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.337 above average	—
Samad Taylor (LF)	SD	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.303 below average	—
Rafael Devers (DH)	SF	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.342 elite	—
Jake Cronenworth (1B)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.268 weak	—
Freddy Fermin (C)	SD	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.275 weak	—
Jung Hoo Lee (RF)	SF	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.316 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.632	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.518	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.016	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.693	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.41-4.97	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.41-4.97	4-5	-0.433	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SF	Shay Whitcomb	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.214
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 2
SD	Jake Cronenworth	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_BB 1.634
SD	Luis Campusano	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.541
SF	Drew Gilbert	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.418
SD	Xander Bogaerts	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.293
SF	Rafael Devers	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB 1.255
SF	Drew Cavanaugh	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.152

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hays: H current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Turner Hill: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Osleivis Basabe: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SEA@OAKHIT

Predicted: SEA 6-5 (conf -0.05, lean)Actual: SEA 19-1Brier 0.226total bias -9

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.05 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 17; total bias -9
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.415, recent +0.586, pitcher +0.021, composite -0.215
confidence pipeline reached 0.535 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.475
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 9 (11 vs 20)
SEA offense under-projected by 13
OAK offense over-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SEA	Bryan Woo	2 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-2
OAK	Gage Jump	4 ER / 13 outs	5 ER / 6 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.962 / away×0.94; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Michael Arroyo (SEA 2B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.51]
Cole Young (SEA SS): 3-for-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Zack Gelof (OAK 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Julio Rodríguez (SEA CF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Josh Naylor (SEA 1B): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]

Starter miss: Gage Jump (OAK) posted 22.50 ERA vs projected 8.31 (5 ER in 6 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (5.62 ERA there vs 4.60 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Bryan Woo (SEA) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (-3.18 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jonah Heim: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Gage Jump (OAK) threw 6 outs, 5 ER = 22.5 ERA against a projected 8.31 ERA (14.19 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 13 runs on 18 hits and 5 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (8 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Michael Arroyo: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+2.51 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.447, elite - real projection error
Cole Young: 3-for-6, 1 HR, 5 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Julio Rodríguez: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.27 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SEA	Bryan Woo (Starter)	18 / 17	0 / 3.18 (-3.18)	0 / 2	3 / 5	0 / 0	2 / 0	1.31	5 / 5	5.83	venue away: 5.62 vs 2.36 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
OAK	Gage Jump (Starter)	6 / 13	22.5 / 8.31 (+14.19)	5 / 4	5 / 5	2 / 2	1 / 1	2.05	2 / 7	4.95	venue home: 5.62 vs 4.6 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.94 (weak) · 19 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Michael Arroyo (2B)	SEA	4 / 3	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2.51	0.447 elite	projection too low
Cole Young (SS)	SEA	6 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	5 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.317 average	no signal
Zack Gelof (3B)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.313 average	no signal
Julio Rodríguez (CF)	SEA	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.27	0.335 above average	projection too low
Josh Naylor (1B)	SEA	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.25	0.316 average	no signal
J.P. Crawford (3B)	SEA	6 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.07	0.322 above average	projection too low
Jeff McNeil (2B)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.304 average	no signal
Randy Arozarena (LF)	SEA	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.76	0.347 elite	projection too low
Dominic Canzone (DH)	SEA	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.352 elite	—
Tommy White (1B)	OAK	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.297 below average	—
Alika Williams (SS)	OAK	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.243 weak	—
Lawrence Butler (RF)	OAK	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.325 above average	—
Jonah Heim (C)	OAK	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.29 below average	—
Henry Bolte (CF)	OAK	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.317 average	—
Cal Raleigh (C)	SEA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	-0.14	0.312 average	—
Carlos Cortes (LF)	OAK	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.305 average	—
Max Muncy (DH)	OAK	1 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.29 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.415	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.586	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.021	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.215	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.54-4.58	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.525	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.54-4.58	6-5	0.042	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	6-5	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SEA	Bryan Woo	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
OAK	Gage Jump	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_ER 2
OAK	Scott Blewett	pitcher / Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	better	predicted_ER -2
SEA	Taylor Ward	batter / RF	worse	predicted_HR 1.947
OAK	Jeff McNeil	batter / 2B	deboosted	predicted_H 1.84
SEA	Michael Arroyo	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB 1.5
SEA	Josh Naylor	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.449
SEA	Dominic Canzone	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 1.39

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tommy White: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=14).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Cole Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TEX@ARIMISS

Predicted: ARI 4-5 (conf +0.12, moderate)Actual: TEX 6-2Brier 0.312total bias +1

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.368, recent +0.216, pitcher +0.071, composite +0.593
confidence pipeline reached 0.583 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.559
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

ARI offense over-projected by 3
Kumar Rocker (TEX) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 5)
committed to ARI at 0.12 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TEX	Kumar Rocker	5 ER / 14 outs	1 ER / 12 outs	-4
ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	4 ER / 19 outs	6 ER / 20 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.068 / away×0.997; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Joc Pederson (TEX DH): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Wyatt Langford (TEX LF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.71]
Corbin Carroll (ARI RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Nolan Arenado (ARI 3B): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Tim Tawa (ARI 1B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.95]

Starter miss: Kumar Rocker (TEX) posted 2.25 ERA vs projected 9.64 (1 ER in 12 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.07, bucket average).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Kumar Rocker (TEX) threw 12 outs, 1 ER = 2.25 ERA against a projected 9.64 ERA (-7.39 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 6 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tim Tawa: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.95 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.314, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) at a projected 5.68 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 11 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Wyatt Langford: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.71 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Elias Díaz: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.272, weak - a good day, not a model error
Brandon Nimmo: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.346, elite - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
TEX	Kumar Rocker (Starter)	12 / 14	2.25 / 9.64 (-7.39)	1 / 5	2 / 7	0 / 0	2 / 4	2.69	5 / 4	5.19	venue away: 4.79 vs 4.76 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.07 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
TEX	Jacob Latz (Closer)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.36	2 / 1	1.21

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Joc Pederson (DH)	TEX	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.343 elite	bad day
Wyatt Langford (LF)	TEX	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	1.71	0.316 average	no signal
Corbin Carroll (RF)	ARI	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.11	0.341 elite	bad day
Nolan Arenado (3B)	ARI	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-1.07	0.293 below average	projection too high
Tim Tawa (1B)	ARI	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.95	0.314 average	no signal
Elias Díaz (C)	TEX	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.94	0.272 weak	good day
Brandon Nimmo (RF)	TEX	5 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.346 elite	projection too low
Nicky Lopez (2B)	TEX	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.257 weak	—
Ketel Marte (DH)	ARI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.346 elite	—
Geraldo Perdomo (SS)	ARI	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.33	0.326 above average	—
Corey Seager (SS)	TEX	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.31	0.353 elite	—
Gabriel Moreno (C)	ARI	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.359 elite	—
Evan Carter (CF)	TEX	1 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.279 weak	—
Ezequiel Duran (3B)	TEX	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.306 average	—
Jake Burger (1B)	TEX	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.315 average	—
Jordan Lawlar (CF)	ARI	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.328 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.368	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.216	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.071	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.593	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.17-4.7	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.559	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.17-4.7	4-5	0.476	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ARI	Gabriel Moreno	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 2.26
TEX	Kumar Rocker	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
TEX	Joc Pederson	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.92
ARI	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	batter / LF	worse	predicted_BB 1.804
TEX	Evan Carter	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 1.75
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.5
ARI	Corbin Carroll	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.5
ARI	Geraldo Perdomo	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.472

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=9).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2; Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Jordan Lawlar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=4, sim=6).	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Joc Pederson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Luna deep post-mortem (full)

> Coverage receipt: COMPLETE · 9/8 sections; 15/15 games; 6/6 causes; 6/6 sources

1. Evidence receipt and gaps

Sources received

Six of seven manifest entries were loaded:

Prediction review — /app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260912.json, 377,165 bytes; official outcomes and scoring errors.
Forensic deep audit — /app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260912.json, 240,873 bytes; probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts.
Continuous learning — /app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260912.json, 2,581,062 bytes; pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and starter comparisons.
Detailed report — /app/output/reports/detailed_20260912.html, 354,592 bytes; full game and simulation rendering.
Ultra-detailed player audit — /app/output/reports/20260912_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html, 34,118,143 bytes; player-level prediction trace.
Structural audit — /app/output/reports/audit_report_20260912.html, 1,868,598 bytes; invariant findings.

The following manifest item is missing:

Integrity revision audit — /app/output/reports/audit_report_20260912_integrity_revision.html; intended purpose: post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts.

This missing artifact is a receipt gap, but it is not itself evidence that the forecasts were altered. The game-level integrity audits report zero critical and error findings.

Coverage confirmation

All 15 expected games were reviewed:

BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI.

Coverage is complete at the structural level:

Canonical artifacts loaded: 15/15
Continuous-learning games: 15/15
Forensic deep-audit games: 15/15
Starter comparisons: 15/15
Structural audits: 15/15
Games reviewed: 15
Hits: 8
Misses: 7

Important gaps and contradictions

The player feed contains no rows for the entire 20260912 slate. Consequently, player-level actual-performance attribution is unavailable for every game, even where player adjustments were applied pregame.
No source-labelled moneyline was available, so market agreement and market cross-checks could not be evaluated.
The missing integrity-revision audit prevents confirmation of that specific immutable-revision artifact, although the available structural audits all passed.
Two probability publications contain unexplained calibrated-to-published deltas: CHW@STL and COL@DET. This is a material contract gap, not a demonstrated governor bypass.
The causal register says the score-compression issue affects five named games, while the underlying evidence is slate-wide: 12/15 predicted margins were ≤2 runs, versus 8/15 actual margins ≥4. The register's affected-game list should therefore be treated as the most directly implicated subset, not the complete set of games exhibiting compressed margins.
The pipeline metrics show a later recovery from variance_applied to enhanced_prediction, but that recovery does not erase the intermediate winner-direction regressions.

---

2. Executive diagnosis

Overall result

The slate was weak as a prediction product:

Published slate accuracy: 8/15 = 53.33%
Walk-forward baseline accuracy: 55.94%
Historical holdout winner accuracy: 59.82%
Slate Brier mean, from the listed game scores: approximately 0.258
Weighted absolute calibration error: 0.1711
High-conviction games: 4
High-conviction misses: 3
High-conviction miss rate: 75%
Mean team-run error on losses: 6.143
Mean total-run bias on losses: -1.286
Model margin MAE at the published stage: 4.133
Model signed margin bias: +0.667 using the reported margin orientation

The headline is therefore: winner accuracy was barely above chance and below the validated baseline; calibration was poor and anti-predictive at high conviction; score accuracy was materially poor; starter projections were mixed; artifact integrity was mostly clean except for two unresolved probability-publication lineage failures and one missing revision-audit artifact.

A correct winner does not make the prediction good. Several correct calls had very large score errors, including:

CIN@MIL: winner correct, team-run error 6
COL@DET: winner correct, team-run error 7
SEA@OAK: winner correct, team-run error 17

Winner accuracy

The system selected the correct winner in 8 of 15 games. Four of seven losses were low-edge or toss-up decisions, but three were materially dangerous confidence failures:

CHW@STL: published home probability 0.591; STL lost.
LAD@MIA: published away probability 0.600; LAD lost.
TEX@ARI: published home probability 0.559; ARI lost.

The published confidence did not rank outcomes reliably. The four high-conviction games had only one winner hit: COL@DET was correct; LAD@MIA, CHW@STL, and TEX@ARI were misses.

Calibration quality

Calibration was poor:

0.50–0.55 bucket: average confidence 0.5257, observed hit rate 0.6364; the bucket was underconfident by the supplied definition.
0.55–0.60 bucket: average confidence 0.5829, observed hit rate 0.3333; overconfident.
0.60–0.65 bucket: average confidence 0.6000, observed hit rate 0.0; overconfident.
Weighted absolute calibration error: 0.1711.

The register correctly labels this as a high model/process risk, not a critical contract failure. One slate is too small to redesign calibration confidently, but the cross-slate evidence has escalated the run-model and simulation findings; calibration instability itself has persisted for two consecutive slates and five occurrences in the 11-slate window.

Score accuracy

Score prediction was the largest performance problem:

Historical ML team-run MAE: 2.8836
Published team-run MAE: 3.0000
Published total-run MAE: 4.2667
Mean predicted margin: 1.67
Mean actual margin: 4.33
12/15 predicted margins were ≤2; 8/15 actual margins were ≥4.
Actual margins included 10, 10, and 18 runs, while the model predicted margins of 2, 2, and 1 in those games.

The validated run models explain very little holdout variance:

Away-run R²: 0.021038
Home-run R²: 0.011791
Total-run R²: 0.020666

This is an established run-model weakness, not a one-game anomaly.

Starter accuracy

Starter performance was mixed and contributed directly to several misses:

LAD@MIA: Glasnow projected 0 ER, actual 4 ER; primary starter-projection miss.
TEX@ARI: Rocker projected 5 ER, actual 1; the overprojection favored the wrong home side.
LAA@WAS: Ureña projected 1 ER, actual 4.
CLE@MIN: Espino projected 3 ER, actual 0, while the opposing starter was also overprojected.
CIN@MIL: both starters were underprojected, but the stronger-side winner survived.
SD@SF: Perdomo was underprojected by 3 ER, but the winner was correct.

The lever-tension evidence says pitcher reweighting would help six games and risk three, but the cross-slate register does not establish a persistent separable starter bias. The correct posture is bounded investigation, not an unrestricted pitcher-weight increase.

Artifact integrity

Artifact quality is mostly good:

Every game received structural QA.
Every game-level structural audit reported zero critical, zero error, and zero warnings.
Starter identities matched in all 15 comparisons.
Forecast-file integrity was reported clean for every game.

However:

CHW@STL and COL@DET have unexplained material calibrated-to-published probability deltas.
The integrity-revision audit is missing.
The player feed is empty for the slate.
The probability lineage is therefore not fully contract-complete, even though most individual transformations are documented.

Causal issue register reconciliation

Critical: `unexplained_probability_publication_delta`

Severity: Critical.
Evidence: Two games have unexplained calibrated-to-published deltas of at least two percentage points.
Affected games: CHW@STL, COL@DET.
Action: Block promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled.
Guardrail: Do not assume the probability governor was bypassed until pick-side math is traced.
Conclusion: This is a contract/evidence failure. It is not proof that the published pick was numerically wrong or that the governor was bypassed.

High: `score_margin_compression`

Severity: High.
Evidence: 12/15 predicted margins ≤2; 8/15 actual margins ≥4; predicted mean margin 1.67 versus actual 4.33.
Affected games: BAL@TOR, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI, with wider slate-level relevance.
Action: Evaluate recent out-of-sample tail coverage and margin MAE before widening score distributions.
Guardrail: Do not widen every score prediction because of one blowout.
Conclusion: Supported by both this slate and a regressing cross-slate margin trend.

High: `single_slate_calibration_instability`

Severity: High.
Evidence: WACE 0.1711 over 15 games.
Affected games: all 15.
Action: Monitor the same buckets over the rolling window before changing calibration weight.
Guardrail: Do not infer a stable calibration curve from one slate.
Conclusion: The current slate is poor, and the pattern has now persisted for two consecutive slates, but the calibration lever still needs bounded shadow testing.

High: `weak_run_model_signal`

Severity: High.
Evidence: home/away/total R² of 0.0118/0.0210/0.0207.
Affected games: all 15.
Action: Investigate features and target in an isolated backtest.
Guardrail: Do not treat small positive R² as exact-score reliability.
Conclusion: Escalated across 11 consecutive slates. This is a model/data design problem, not a nightly variance-tuning problem.

Info: `complete_slate_audit_coverage`

Severity: Informational.
Evidence: 15/15 structurally audited.
Action: Retain the per-game audit receipt.
Guardrail: Full coverage does not cancel internal findings.
Conclusion: Coverage is complete, but the slate is not clean.

Info: `simulation_inert_on_slate`

Severity: Informational on this slate, escalated across slates.
Evidence: zero flip candidates and zero published flips.
Affected games: all 15.
Action: Measure simulation contribution over rolling slates and separate score realization from winner intervention.
Guardrail: Zero flips is not itself a defect and does not prove no score reconciliation occurred.
Conclusion: The cross-slate evidence now establishes a persistent diagnostic/code concern.

---

3. Every game

Notation: p is the published probability of the selected side; edge is the published home-minus-away confidence edge. Starter format is projected ER/ERA/outs → actual ER/ERA/outs. “Controls” includes governor, recency, and experience handling. Player actuals were unavailable on the entire slate.

BAL@TOR — winner hit, score miss

Prediction: TOR 4–3; TOR winner.
Actual: TOR 7–3; TOR winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.530; edge +0.060; lean.
Errors: Brier 0.2209; team-run error 3; total bias -3; predicted margin 1, actual margin 4.
Starters: Bradish 4.0/6.75/16 → 5.0/15.00/9; Miles 2.0/3.60/15 → 0/0/6.
Edges: season +0.068, recent +0.330, pitcher -0.143, composite -0.015.
Controls: governor reached 0.5871; recency guardrail applied; no starter-experience shrink; final publication reduced home p to 0.530; score volatility no-change.
Score path: approximately 3–4 historical/baseline, published 3–4; no meaningful tail expansion.
Player adjustment: no player actual feed; no pregame material player-adjustment list reported.
Audit: PASS; zero critical/error/warning, 102 good, 7 info. Artifact clean.
Cause: Correct directional call; total and TOR scoring were underprojected. Not a winner miss.

CHW@STL — winner miss and wrong-score miss

Prediction: STL 4–3; STL winner.
Actual: CHW 6–5; CHW winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.591; edge +0.1816; moderate. A 0.18 edge is meaningful but not certainty.
Errors: Brier 0.349039; team-run error 4; total bias -4; predicted margin 1, actual margin 1 in absolute size but direction reversed.
Starters: Newcomb 2.0/3.60/15 → 1.0/6.75/4; Leahy 0/0/15 → 0/0/9.
Edges: season -0.037, recent +0.834, pitcher -0.034, composite +0.294; recent form favored STL.
Controls: governor output 0.6339; no recency guardrail; no experience shrink; publication 0.590795. Score volatility no-change.
Score path: historical about 3.6–4.7; baseline 4–5; enhanced/published 3–4. The model remained on STL despite recent and composite support.
Player adjustment: 24 material changes reported, including Benintendi improvement for CHW and several STL/CHW AB, strikeout, and hit changes; no actual player outcomes available.
Audit: PASS, zero critical/error/warning. Probability-lineage critical finding: calibrated 0.6339 to published 0.590795 has no recorded transformation.
Primary cause: wrong conviction side.
Secondary cause: underprojected total and CHW offense.
Earliest wrong-direction evidence: enhanced prediction and the confidence path retained STL; no later stage recovered the side.

CIN@MIL — winner hit, score miss

Prediction: MIL 10–6; MIL winner.
Actual: MIL 13–9; MIL winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.540; edge +0.080; lean, despite the internal high-margin signal.
Errors: Brier 0.2116; team-run error 6; total bias -6; predicted margin 4, actual margin 4.
Starters: Singer 6/10.8/15 → 8/18.0/12; Drohan 2/3.6/15 → 5/12.27/11.
Edges: season +2.038, recent +1.126, pitcher +0.057, composite +2.247.
Controls: governor reached 0.7235; recency guardrail applied; no experience shrink; score action supported blowout margin expansion; publication fell to 0.540.
Score path: historical about 4–5; enhanced approximately 6–10; published 6–10.
Player adjustment: no player actual feed; no listed material player-adjustment table in this record.
Audit: PASS; zero critical/error/warning.
Cause: Right winner, wrong score. Both starters were worse than projected, creating an underdispersed total.

CLE@MIN — winner miss and wrong-score miss

Prediction: CLE 6–4; CLE winner.
Actual: MIN 4–3; MIN winner.
p / edge / bucket: published home p 0.459, selected-away p 0.541; edge -0.0823; lean.
Errors: Brier 0.292863; team-run error 3; total bias +3; predicted margin 2 for CLE, actual margin 1 for MIN.
Starters: Espino 3/9.0/9 → 0/0/6; Prielipp 4/7.2/15 → 3/5.06/16.
Edges: season -0.179, recent +0.066, pitcher +0.067, composite -0.295.
Controls: governor 0.5578; recency guardrail and inexperienced-starter shrink applied; final home p 0.459; score volatility no-change.
Score path: historical 5–3; baseline 5–3; enhanced 6–5; Savant reduced MIN to 4; published 6–4.
Player adjustment: 25 material changes, including a +4.43 projected-RBI adjustment for Rocchio and other lineup changes; no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS.
Primary cause: mixed errors.
Secondary cause: both starter and run-environment estimates were off.
Earliest wrong-direction evidence: enhanced prediction moved the away side to a 6–5 advantage; the Savant stage reduced MIN further and preserved the wrong side.

COL@DET — winner hit, score miss

Prediction: DET 7–4; DET winner.
Actual: DET 11–7; DET winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.599; edge +0.1978; moderate.
Errors: Brier 0.160881; team-run error 7; total bias -7; predicted margin 3, actual margin 4.
Starters: Gordon 3/5.4/15 → 4/9.0/12; Sears 3/6.75/12 → 4/8.31/13.
Edges: season +1.208, recent +0.814, pitcher +0.057, composite +1.534.
Controls: governor 0.7296; no recency guardrail; starter-experience shrink applied because one starter had three career games; final p 0.5989; blowout-margin expansion supported.
Score path: historical/baseline approximately 4–5; enhanced and final 4–7.
Player adjustment: no actual player feed; no detailed player adjustment list reported.
Audit: PASS. Probability-lineage critical finding: calibrated 0.7296 to published 0.5989 has no recorded transformation.
Cause: Right winner, wrong score. Both offenses exceeded projection.

HOU@TB — winner hit, score miss

Prediction: TB 5–4; TB winner.
Actual: TB 3–2; TB winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.532; edge +0.0631; lean.
Errors: Brier 0.219447; team-run error 4; total bias +4; predicted margin 1, actual margin 1.
Starters: Lambert 1/1.69/16 → 3/4.50/18; Seymour 2/3.60/15 → 2/3.00/18.
Edges: season +0.615, recent +0.240, pitcher -0.022, composite +0.529.
Controls: governor 0.5437; recency guardrail applied; no experience shrink; volatility no-change.
Score path: roughly 4–5 throughout; final 4–5.
Player adjustment: no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS.
Cause: Right winner, wrong score; HOU offense and total environment were overprojected.

KC@BOS — winner hit, score miss

Prediction: BOS 6–4; BOS winner.
Actual: BOS 5–1; BOS winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.530; edge +0.060; lean.
Errors: Brier 0.2209; team-run error 4; total bias +4; predicted margin 2, actual margin 4.
Starters: Dobnak 3/4.50/18 → 3/4.76/17; Suárez 3/5.06/16 → 1/1.29/21.
Edges: season +0.857, recent +0.251, pitcher +0.041, composite +0.984.
Controls: governor 0.5523; recency guardrail applied; no experience shrink; volatility no-change.
Score path: historical/baseline around 4–6; final 4–6.
Player adjustment: no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS.
Cause: Right winner, wrong score; BOS pitching and KC offense were misestimated.

LAA@WAS — winner miss and wrong-score miss

Prediction: LAA 4–3; LAA winner.
Actual: WAS 6–5; WAS winner.
p / edge / bucket: selected away p 0.506; edge -0.0113; toss-up.
Errors: Brier 0.25568; team-run error 4; total bias -4; predicted margin 1, actual margin 1 opposite direction.
Starters: Ureña 1/1.50/18 → 4/6.00/18; Alvarez 0/0/15 → 0/0/21.
Edges: season +0.275, recent -0.022, pitcher -0.035, composite -0.111.
Controls: governor 0.5078; recency guardrail applied; no experience shrink; volatility no-change.
Score path: historical near 5–5; enhanced 4–3; final 4–3.
Player adjustment: 23 material changes; no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS.
Primary cause: toss-up variance.
Secondary cause: small edge on losing side and Ureña starter miss.
Pipeline note: historical ML changed WAS to a tie at variance application, then enhanced prediction moved to LAA; that is an intermediate winner-direction regression even though later stages retained LAA.

LAD@MIA — winner miss, wrong-score miss, correct-winner/wrong-score not applicable

Prediction: LAD 7–4; LAD winner.
Actual: MIA 4–3; MIA winner.
p / edge / bucket: selected away p 0.600; edge -0.200; strong.
Errors: Brier 0.36; team-run error 4; total bias +4; predicted margin 3, actual margin 1 opposite direction.
Starters: Glasnow 0/0/18 → 4/9.00/12; Phillips 3/5.40/15 → 2/4.91/11.
Edges: season -1.178, recent -0.868, pitcher -0.056, composite -1.528; all supported LAD.
Controls: governor 0.6956; recency guardrail and starter-experience shrink applied; score path used supported blowout expansion; final p 0.600.
Score path: historical 5–3; enhanced 7–4; final 7–4.
Player adjustment: 20 material changes, including LAD and MIA hit/RBI/strikeout adjustments; no actual feed.
Audit: PASS.
Primary cause: starter projection.
Secondary cause: wrong conviction side.
Earliest wrong-direction evidence: the historical and fundamental edges strongly supported LAD; the decisive failure was the zero-ER Glasnow projection, not a late publication flip.

NYM@NYY — winner miss and severe score miss

Prediction: NYY 7–5; NYY winner.
Actual: NYM 12–2; NYM winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.539; edge +0.0784; lean.
Errors: Brier 0.290715; team-run error 12; total bias -2; predicted margin 2, actual margin 10 opposite direction.
Starters: Thornton 0/0/16 → 2/2.57/21; Cole 3/4.50/18 → 5/10.38/13.
Edges: season +0.882, recent -0.012, pitcher -0.014, composite +0.812.
Controls: governor 0.5392; no recency or experience shrink; volatility no-change.
Score path: historical 4–5; enhanced 5–6; Savant 5–7; final 5–7.
Player adjustment: 25 material changes; no actual feed.
Audit: PASS.
Cause: lean-side miss, amplified by offense/pitching miss. The model overprojected NYY and underprojected NYM by 5 and 7 runs respectively.
Earliest wrong-direction evidence: season-quality adjustment moved the score toward NYY despite recent form being nearly neutral; no later stage corrected it.

PHI@ATL — winner miss and severe score miss

Prediction: PHI 4–3; PHI winner.
Actual: ATL 12–2; ATL winner.
p / edge / bucket: selected away p 0.505; edge -0.010; toss-up.
Errors: Brier 0.255025; team-run error 11; total bias -7; predicted margin 1, actual margin 10 opposite direction.
Starters: Mayza 1/1.80/15 → 0/0/9; Mahle 3/4.76/17 → 1/1.29/21.
Edges: season +0.365, recent +0.078, pitcher -0.012, composite +0.013.
Controls: governor 0.5065; recency guardrail applied; no experience shrink; volatility no-change.
Score path: historical 4–5; enhanced 4–3; final 4–3.
Player adjustment: 23 material changes; no actual feed.
Primary cause: run environment under/underdispersion.
Secondary cause: toss-up variance.
Pipeline note: variance_applied favored ATL, but enhanced prediction flipped to PHI. This intermediate winner-direction regression is not erased by the final score path.

PIT@CHC — winner hit, modest score miss

Prediction: CHC 5–4; CHC winner.
Actual: CHC 4–3; CHC winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.530; edge +0.060; lean.
Errors: Brier 0.2209; team-run error 2; total bias +2; predicted margin 1, actual margin 1.
Starters: Skenes 3/5.06/16 → 2/2.57/21; Holmes 2/3.18/17 → 2/3.18/17.
Edges: season +0.438, recent -0.094, pitcher -0.020, composite +0.353.
Controls: governor 0.5547; recency guardrail; no experience shrink; volatility no-change.
Score path: broadly 4–5; final 4–5.
Player adjustment: no actual feed.
Audit: PASS.
Cause: Right winner; score was close. This is a counterexample to broad run-weight changes.

SD@SF — winner hit, score miss

Prediction: SD 5–4; SD winner.
Actual: SD 7–6; SD winner.
p / edge / bucket: selected away p 0.505; edge -0.010; toss-up.
Errors: Brier 0.245025; team-run error 4; total bias -4; predicted margin 1, actual margin 1.
Starters: King 3/4.50/18 → 3/3.86/21; Perdomo 2/3.60/15 → 5/9.64/14.
Edges: season -0.632, recent -0.518, pitcher -0.016, composite -0.693.
Controls: governor 0.5078; recency guardrail and inexperienced-starter shrink applied; volatility no-change.
Score path: historical/baseline around 5–4; final 5–4.
Player adjustment: no actual feed.
Audit: PASS.
Cause: Right winner; SF starter underperformance caused the score miss.
Pipeline note: variance stage favored SF, then enhanced prediction moved to SD. The eventual recovery does not erase that intermediate regression.

SEA@OAK — winner hit, extreme score miss

Prediction: SEA 6–5; SEA winner.
Actual: SEA 19–1; SEA winner.
p / edge / bucket: selected away p 0.525; edge -0.0499; lean.
Errors: Brier 0.22565; team-run error 17; total bias -9; predicted margin 1, actual margin 18.
Starters: Woo 2/3.18/17 → 0/0/18; Jump 4/8.31/13 → 5/22.50/6.
Edges: season -0.415, recent +0.586, pitcher +0.021, composite -0.215.
Controls: governor 0.5346; recency guardrail; no experience shrink; volatility no-change despite a large Savant flag.
Score path: approximately 4–5 through final; no tail expansion.
Player adjustment: no actual feed.
Audit: PASS.
Cause: Right winner, severe score miss; run-environment and OAK starter tail were not captured.

TEX@ARI — winner miss and wrong-score miss

Prediction: ARI 5–4; ARI winner.
Actual: TEX 6–2; TEX winner.
p / edge / bucket: home p 0.559; edge +0.1179; moderate. A 0.12 edge is moderate, not a near coin flip, but also not strong conviction.
Errors: Brier 0.312417; team-run error 5; total bias +1; predicted margin 1, actual margin 4 opposite direction.
Starters: Rocker 5/9.64/14 → 1/2.25/12; Pfaadt 4/5.68/19 → 6/8.10/20.
Edges: season +0.368, recent +0.216, pitcher +0.071, composite +0.593.
Controls: governor 0.5834; recency guardrail; no experience shrink; volatility no-change.
Score path: historical 4–5; enhanced 4–5; final 4–5.
Player adjustment: 22 material changes; no actual feed.
Primary cause: starter projection.
Secondary cause: wrong conviction side.
Earliest wrong-direction evidence: the home-side composite and season edges supported ARI, but the decisive starter forecast overstated Rocker’s risk by four ER and understated Pfaadt’s by two.

---

4. Miss reconstruction

Earliest wrong-direction stage for every loss

Game	Earliest evidence/stage moving toward wrong result	Classification
CHW@STL	Historical/variance/enhanced path retained STL; final probability remained materially committed to STL	Bad weighting / winner-direction judgment; offense miss secondary
CLE@MIN	Enhanced prediction moved to CLE 6–5; Savant reduced MIN further and preserved CLE	Bad weighting plus starter/run-environment miss
LAA@WAS	Historical ML moved WAS to a tie, then variance/enhanced moved to LAA	Winner-direction regression at variance/enhanced stage; starter miss and variance
LAD@MIA	Historical/fundamental edges supported LAD; 0-ER Glasnow projection produced a large LAD score and probability advantage	Starter error, then wrong conviction
NYM@NYY	Season-quality adjustment maintained NYY; enhanced/Savant kept NYY 7–5	Bad weighting and offense/bullpen/run miss
PHI@ATL	Variance stage favored ATL, then enhanced prediction flipped to PHI	Intermediate winner-direction regression; run-environment miss
TEX@ARI	Composite/season/pitcher evidence supported ARI, but Rocker/Pfaadt projections reinforced ARI	Starter projection error and wrong conviction

Loss-type distinctions

Bad input / artifact: No direct evidence that an input file or player identity was corrupted. Starter identities matched. However, the empty player feed is a data-availability defect that prevents postgame player attribution.
Bad weighting: CHW@STL, CLE@MIN, LAA@WAS, NYM@NYY, and PHI@ATL show evidence of weighting or stage behavior that preserved or introduced the wrong side.
Calibration: CHW@STL, LAD@MIA, and TEX@ARI were materially overconfident relative to the outcome. The high-conviction miss rate was 75%.
Starter error: Most clearly LAD@MIA and TEX@ARI; materially present in LAA@WAS and CLE@MIN.
Offense/bullpen miss: NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, SEA@OAK, and CHW@STL had large team-scoring misses. Bullpen-specific attribution cannot be made from the supplied data.
Run-environment miss: PHI@ATL, NYM@NYY, SEA@OAK, and CHW@STL are particularly severe. The system repeatedly predicted narrow totals and margins.
Irreducible variance: LAA@WAS and part of CLE@MIN/PHI@ATL were genuinely low-edge or toss-up situations. That explains outcome uncertainty but not the score compression.

The 0.12 home-away confidence edge in TEX@ARI is moderate, not a near coin flip and not a strong call. It should not be treated as equivalent to the 0.20 strong LAD@MIA edge, nor as evidence that the outcome was almost random.

Pipeline-stage audit across all stages

Stage	Winner accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Interpretation
historical_ml	8/15, 53.33%	2.8836	4.1122	Baseline
variance_applied	7/15, 46.67%	2.8333	3.9333	Run MAE improved slightly, but winner direction regressed
enhanced_prediction	8/15, 53.33%	3.0333	4.4667	Team-run MAE regressed +0.1497 versus baseline
embedded_savant_run_environment	8/15	3.0000	4.2667	Partial recovery in run MAE, no winner recovery
fundamental_edge_target_review	8/15	3.0000	4.2667	No additional change
capped_target	8/15	3.0000	4.2667	No additional change
simulation_result	8/15	3.0000	4.2667	No additional change
published_final	8/15	3.0000	4.2667	Same as simulation result

Transition audit

historical_ml → variance_applied: LAA@WAS moved WAS → TIE; winner accuracy fell by one game. This is a regression even though total-run MAE improved.
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction: LAA@WAS moved TIE → LAA and PHI@ATL moved ATL → PHI; PIT@CHC and SD@SF improved. Net winner accuracy recovered by one, but PHI@ATL was a direct regression.
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment: no winner changes; run MAE improved modestly.
All later transitions: no winner-direction changes and no score changes.

The simulation did not intervene in winner direction on this slate. A later recovery in aggregate metrics does not erase LAA@WAS and PHI@ATL's intermediate winner regressions.

---

5. Cross-game counterfactuals

Lever tension: widen run distributions

Lever: score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor

Helps: CHW@STL, LAD@MIA, TEX@ARI; the register says wider tails could lower overconfidence in these losing high-confidence calls.
Hurts: COL@DET, where a strong correct call at 0.20 could be softened.
Net evidence: 3 helps versus 1 hurts. The cross-slate margin-bias trend is regressing, so a small bounded shadow increase is supported. It must be evaluated on tail coverage and margin MAE, not on one slate alone.

Lever tension: pitcher form/prior weights

Lever: player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

Helps: CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, SD@SF, TEX@ARI.
Hurts: CHW@STL, COL@DET, PIT@CHC, where starter projections were accurate within one ER and reweighting could damage useful performance.
Net evidence: 6 helps versus 3 hurts. This supports a bounded shadow experiment, not a large live reweight, especially because cross-slate starter bias remains statistically inseparable from noise.

Lever tension: recent/season run-mean weighting

Lever: recent.* / season.* run-mean weighting

Helps: CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI.
Hurts: PIT@CHC, where the team-run estimate was already close.
Net evidence: 12 helps versus 1 hurts. This is directionally attractive for team-run MAE and total-run MAE, but the near-zero holdout R² means changing weights alone is unlikely to solve the underlying problem.

Tempting one-game fixes that should not be made

Do not globally widen all scores because of SEA@OAK.
Do not remove recent form because LAD@MIA and TEX@ARI lost; recent form was informative in other games.
Do not force more confidence toward home teams because of PHI@ATL or NYM@NYY.
Do not increase pitcher weight indiscriminately; CHW@STL, COL@DET, and PIT@CHC had accurate starter projections.
Do not treat TEX@ARI's 0.12 edge as a coin flip or as proof that all moderate edges should be suppressed.
Do not infer a governor bypass from CHW@STL/COL@DET before tracing the missing publication transformation.
Do not promote any calibration change solely from this 15-game slate.

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6. Data and contract defects

Audit finding inventory

Critical

Unexplained probability publication delta

Affects CHW@STL and COL@DET.
Calibrated-to-published differences are material and not documented.
Required action: block promotion until reconciled.

Errors

No game-level structural audit reported an error.
The structural audit summary reported 0 errors.

Warnings

No game-level structural audit reported a warning.
The structural audit summary reported 0 warnings.

Informational findings

Complete 15/15 structural audit coverage.
Simulation produced zero winner flips.
Each game generally reported 7–8 informational notes.
The global structural summary reported 110 info findings.
The player feed had no rows for the slate, preventing player-level actual attribution.
The integrity-revision audit artifact was missing from the manifest.

Model defects versus presentation/artifact defects

Prediction-model defects

Near-zero run-model signal: total R² 0.020666, home 0.011791, away 0.021038.
Margin compression and poor tail coverage.
High-conviction confidence was anti-predictive: 3/4 high-conviction calls missed.
Simulation winner intervention was inert across 11 consecutive slates.
Starter projections produced material errors in several losses.

Presentation or artifact defects

Missing immutable revision-audit artifact.
Missing player-level actual feed.
Two undocumented probability-publication transformations.
No source-labelled market data, preventing market cross-checks.

These artifact issues should not be conflated with the model's poor predictive performance. The available evidence says the forecast files themselves were structurally clean, while the probability lineage contract was incomplete.

Complete probability lineage audit

The intended path is:

raw model → calibrated → governor → score coherence/recency → published.

Games with documented transformations

BAL@TOR: documented score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail.
CIN@MIL: documented score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail.
CLE@MIN: documented score coherence and recency controls.
HOU@TB: documented score coherence and recency controls.
KC@BOS: documented score coherence and recency controls.
LAA@WAS: published probability matches calibrated/governed value apart from negligible rounding.
LAD@MIA: documented score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail.
NYM@NYY: published probability matches calibrated/governed value.
PHI@ATL: published probability matches calibrated/governed value apart from negligible rounding.
PIT@CHC: documented score coherence and recency controls.
SD@SF: published probability matches calibrated/governed value apart from negligible rounding.
SEA@OAK: documented score coherence and recency controls.
TEX@ARI: documented score coherence and recency controls.

Bypasses or unexplained deltas

A material bypass-like gap is present only where the recorded transformation is absent:

CHW@STL: calibrated/governor 0.6339; score coherence 0.606818; published 0.590795. The record states no transformation explains the publication delta.
COL@DET: calibrated/governor 0.7296; score coherence 0.692975; published 0.5989. The record states no transformation explains the publication delta.

These are not yet proven governor bypasses. They are unexplained transformations requiring code-level lineage tracing.

Coverage-matrix conclusion

The coverage matrix is complete, but the slate is not “clean”:

Structural coverage: complete.
Probability-contract coverage: incomplete for two games.
Player-forensics coverage: unavailable for all 15 games.
Revision-integrity coverage: missing one artifact.

---

7. Cross-slate persistence

A single slate is noise; escalated findings are established patterns in this evidence.

Finding streaks

high_raw_probability_cluster: consecutive-slate count 0; present now false. It occurred once in the 11-slate window and should not drive a persistent calibration change by itself.
pipeline_winner_instability: consecutive-slate count 0; present now false. Incidence 3/11, but not currently streaking.
score_margin_compression: consecutive-slate count 1; present now true; incidence 2/11. This is emerging and supported by the current slate.
simulation_inert_on_slate: consecutive-slate count 11; present now true. Established failure pattern.
single_slate_calibration_instability: consecutive-slate count 2; present now true; incidence 5/11. Persistent enough for a bounded shadow experiment, not a wholesale calibration redesign.
weak_run_model_signal: consecutive-slate count 11; present now true. Established failure pattern.

Escalated findings

Simulation inertness

Streak: 11 consecutive slates.
Target lever: simulation.allow_score, with code/diagnostic action rather than a parameter move.
Metric harmed: team-run MAE and total-run MAE; also removes meaningful simulation-based winner intervention.
Direction: confirm the module is actually running and not silently no-oping.
Evidence: zero flip candidates and zero published flips this slate; self-assessment identifies early exit and reuse of target-realization draws as the likely root cause.

Weak run-model signal

Streak: 11 consecutive slates.
Target levers: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate are registered, but the finding is explicitly non-parameter-actionable.
Metric harmed: team-run MAE and total-run MAE.
Direction: investigate feature and target design through isolated training backtest.
Evidence: near-zero holdout R² over 2,165 rows and persistence across 11 slates.

Metric trends

Every supplied trend is regressing:

Margin bias: regressing; mean -1.659 across the supplied series.
Mean team-run error on losses: regressing; mean 5.7784.
Weighted calibration error: regressing; mean 0.1573.
Winner accuracy: regressing; mean 0.5812 across the trend window.
Top-confidence pick loss streak: 2 consecutive slates, 20260911 and 20260912.
Slate winner accuracy: current 0.5333, below the 0.559444 walk-forward baseline.
Confidence status: anti-predictive; high-conviction miss rate 0.75.

The escalated simulation and run-model failures should not be dismissed as single-slate noise.

---

8. Adjustments for today

Recommendations are ranked by persistence, scope, expected metric benefit, and regression risk.

1. Repair and independently validate the simulation module

Pattern: simulation inertness, 11-slate streak.
Registered parameter/code target: simulation.allow_score; however, the evidence says this is a code/diagnostic issue, not a safe parameter change.
Bounded change: Do not tune the parameter. Run a diagnostic shadow path with an independent unsteered winner-distribution batch of approximately 200–500 draws, without early exit, while retaining the existing target-realization search for score generation.
Expected metric: improve meaningful simulation contribution; potentially improve winner calibration and score-tail evaluation.
Helps: games with large unexplained tails such as SEA@OAK, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, and CHW@STL.
Hurts/risk: compute cost and possible overreaction in well-behaved games such as PIT@CHC and COL@DET; use a rollback monitor on winner Brier, calibration error, and team/total-run MAE.
Evidence strength: strongest; 11 consecutive slates and an identified code-path mechanism.

2. Run an isolated run-model feature/target backtest

Pattern: weak run-model signal, 11-slate streak.
Registered target: training feature contract and training process; the listed XGBoost levers are not appropriate as a direct nightly adjustment.
Bounded change: add or test, in shadow only, source-labelled no-vig market probability where available, park/weather environment, bullpen rest/fatigue, and platoon-adjusted lineup quality; compare same-fingerprint holdout R² and MAE before promotion.
Expected metric: increase home, away, and total-run R²; lower team-run MAE, total-run MAE, and margin MAE.
Helps: broad slate, especially NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, SEA@OAK, LAD@MIA, and CHW@STL.
Hurts/risk: feature leakage, dependence on unavailable market/weather inputs, and possible degradation in already-close PIT@CHC. Require same-fingerprint backtest and rollback.
Evidence strength: strongest model-performance evidence; 11-slate persistence and R² near zero.

3. Apply a small shadow reduction to confidence caps

Pattern: calibration instability and current anti-predictive high-confidence cluster.
Exact registered parameter: confidence.base_cap and confidence.moderate_cap.
Bounded change: reduce each by approximately 0.02 in shadow only; do not change the full calibration curve yet.
Expected metric: lower Brier score and weighted calibration error, especially in moderate and strong selections.
Helps: CHW@STL, LAD@MIA, and TEX@ARI by reducing overcommitment; also protects against future high-raw clusters.
Hurts/risk: may soften correct strong calls such as COL@DET and could reduce useful separation in genuinely strong matchups.
Evidence strength: moderate; current slate is poor and calibration streak is two slates, but the register correctly warns against a one-slate overhaul.

4. Run a bounded pitcher-prior shadow experiment

Pattern: starter errors helped six lever-tension games and hurt three.
Exact registered lever: player.pitcher.v4 form weights or player.pitcher_prior_games.
Bounded change: increase the prior-history requirement modestly, for example by one registered prior-game unit, or reduce the form-weight contribution by a small 5% shadow adjustment; test both separately rather than combining them.
Expected metric: starter ER MAE and starter outs MAE.
Helps: CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, SD@SF, TEX@ARI.
Hurts/risk: CHW@STL, COL@DET, PIT@CHC, where starter projections were comparatively accurate.
Evidence strength: moderate-to-low for a live change because cross-slate starter bias is not persistent; shadow only.

5. Resolve probability lineage before promotion

Target: no safe model parameter.
Action: reconstruct and record the missing calibrated → score-coherence/recency → published transformations for CHW@STL and COL@DET, and produce the missing integrity-revision artifact.
Expected metric: artifact integrity and audit completeness, not winner accuracy directly.
Risk: none if diagnostic-only; promotion risk is unacceptable until resolved.
Evidence strength: critical contract evidence.

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9. Bottom line

Known

The slate went 8–7, 53.33%, below the 55.94% walk-forward baseline.
Confidence was poorly calibrated and strongly anti-predictive at the high end: three of four high-conviction picks lost.
Scores and margins were materially compressed, especially in NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, SEA@OAK, and several moderate-confidence misses.
Run-model holdout signal is near zero and has persisted for 11 consecutive slates.
Simulation winner intervention has been inert for 11 consecutive slates.
Starter projection error materially contributed to LAD@MIA, TEX@ARI, LAA@WAS, and CLE@MIN.
Structural game audits covered all 15 games and found no game-level critical, error, or warning findings.
Two probability lineages are contract-incomplete, and one integrity-revision artifact is missing.

Uncertain

Whether the two unexplained probability deltas reflect a governor bypass, an undocumented legitimate transformation, or a serialization/reporting defect.
Whether pitcher reweighting would improve future slates without damaging accurate starter projections.
Whether the current calibration instability warrants a larger cap adjustment; the evidence supports only a bounded shadow test.
Player-level causal attribution for every game, because the entire player actual feed is absent.
The causal value of simulation until an independent, non-early-exiting distribution is measured.

Single safest next action

Do not promote the current slate or tune broad model weights. First run a diagnostic code fix/shadow for the simulation distribution and independently reconcile the two missing probability transformations. This is the safest next action because it addresses the strongest persistent process failure and the critical contract gap without making an unsupported live parameter change.

Deep slate report — 20260912

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

BAL@TORHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHW@STLMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CIN@MILHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CLE@MINMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

COL@DETHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

HOU@TBHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

KC@BOSHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAA@WASMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAD@MIAMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYM@NYYMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Critical: `unexplained_probability_publication_delta`

High: `score_margin_compression`

High: `single_slate_calibration_instability`

High: `weak_run_model_signal`

Info: `complete_slate_audit_coverage`

Info: `simulation_inert_on_slate`