Deep slate report 20260911

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260911.json	n/a
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260911.json	n/a
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260911.json	n/a
game artifacts	loaded	per-game model trace and structural audit source	/app/output/games	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 3 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	CHW@STL, COL@DET, LAA@WAS	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	calibration	Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate weighted absolute calibration error 0.2091 across 15 games	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisWatch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight. Don't concludeA single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0118/0.0210/0.0207	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 15/15 games structurally audited	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, TEX@ARI	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	11 consecutive · 11 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	11 consecutive · 11 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	2/11	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	0	3/11	no	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	0	2/11	no	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	1	5/11	yes	param
weak_run_model_signal	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	improving	[0.4667, 0.3333, 0.5556, 0.625, 0.5333, 0.6, 0.5455, 0.7333, 0.6667, 0.6, 0.6667]
weighted_calibration_error	regressing	[0.2476, 0.21, 0.1474, 0.1316, 0.1, 0.0937, 0.2611, 0.1825, 0.1069, 0.1171, 0.2091]
margin_bias	regressing	[-2.533, -3.067, -1.778, -0.688, -1.467, -1.467, -0.182, -0.867, -2.133, -1.0, -2.933]
team_run_error_on_losses	improving	[7.125, 6.4, 6.75, 6.0, 5.286, 5.333, 3.8, 6.75, 5.6, 6.5, 5.0]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	9/15	60%	2.405	2.875	4.118
variance_applied	8/15	53.3%	2.4	2.933	4.133
enhanced_prediction	10/15	66.7%	2.433	2.733	3.933
embedded_savant_run_environment	10/15	66.7%	2.4	2.533	3.867
fundamental_edge_target_review	10/15	66.7%	2.4	2.533	3.867
capped_target	10/15	66.7%	2.4	2.533	3.867
simulation_result	10/15	66.7%	2.4	2.533	3.867
published_final	10/15	66.7%	2.4	2.533	3.867

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.0667	-1	-0.0049	0.0157	BAL@TOR: BAL → TIE; HOU@TB: HOU → TIE; SEA@OAK: SEA → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.1334	2	0.0333	-0.2	BAL@TOR: TIE → TOR; CLE@MIN: CLE → MIN; HOU@TB: TIE → TB; NYM@NYY: NYM → NYY; SD@SF: SF → SD; SEA@OAK: TIE → SEA
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	-0.0333	-0.0666
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
BAL@TOR	miss	0.5071	0.508	0.508	0.508	0.505	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
CHW@STL	hit	0.6331	0.623	0.623	0.623	0.5984	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
CIN@MIL	hit	0.609	0.6213	0.6213	0.6016	0.54	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CLE@MIN	miss	0.5	0.5073	0.5073	0.5073	0.5053	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
COL@DET	hit	0.6252	0.6071	0.6071	0.5945	0.5412	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
HOU@TB	hit	0.5	0.508	0.508	0.508	0.505	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
KC@BOS	miss	0.655	0.6529	0.6529	0.6529	0.6529	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
LAA@WAS	hit	0.6202	0.6177	0.6177	0.5998	0.5757	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
LAD@MIA	hit	0.6625	0.6905	0.6905	0.6755	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYM@NYY	hit	0.5664	0.6162	0.6162	0.6162	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
PHI@ATL	hit	0.563	0.5376	0.5376	0.5376	0.5272	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
PIT@CHC	hit	0.5901	0.5517	0.5517	0.5517	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SD@SF	hit	0.5	0.508	0.508	0.508	0.505	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
SEA@OAK	miss	0.5	0.508	0.508	0.508	0.5058	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
TEX@ARI	miss	0.5798	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.568	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
30	4	9	2	15	0.99	0

Game	Trained p(home)	Blended p(home)	Blend favoured	Published p(home)	Published side	Artifact says winner changed	Outcome
CLE@MIN	0.462	0.485	away	0.505	home	yes	miss
HOU@TB	0.471	0.49	away	0.505	home	yes	hit
SD@SF	0.512	0.502	home	0.495	away	yes	hit
SEA@OAK	0.519	0.505	home	0.494	away	yes	miss

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260911	15	0.667	—	—
20260910	5	0.600	-3.19	-1.70		8
20260909	15	0.667	3.36	1.07	8	7
20260908	15	0.733	-0.15	-0.23	7	15
20260907	11	0.545	-0.86	-0.36	5	4
20260906	15	0.600	0.74	-0.30	6	10
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12
20260903	9	0.556	0.24	-0.83	4	6
20260902	15	0.333	0.72	0.30	7	6
20260901	15	0.467	1.48	1.07	9	3
20260831	12	0.667	0.83	0.08	2	7

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
BAL@TOR	1	3	-2
CHW@STL	2	4	-2
CIN@MIL	2	20	-18
CLE@MIN	1	3	-2
COL@DET	1	4	-3
HOU@TB	2	2	0
KC@BOS	2	1	1
LAA@WAS	1	1	0
LAD@MIA	2	4	-2
NYM@NYY	2	2	0
PHI@ATL	1	1	0
PIT@CHC	1	10	-9
SD@SF	1	2	-1
SEA@OAK	1	1	0
TEX@ARI	2	8	-6

BAL@TORMISS

Predicted: TOR 4-5 (conf +0.01, toss_up)Actual: BAL 7-4Brier 0.255total bias -2

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.197, recent +0.606, pitcher -0.067, composite +0.293
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.505
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

BAL offense under-projected by 3
Max Scherzer (TOR) allowed 3 more ER than projected (6 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BAL	Chris Bassitt	4 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	-2
TOR	Max Scherzer	3 ER / 15 outs	6 ER / 15 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.969 / away×1.036; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Brett Bateman (TOR CF): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
Colton Cowser (BAL CF): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Dylan Beavers (BAL LF): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL 3B): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Jackson Holliday (BAL 2B): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Max Scherzer (TOR) posted 10.80 ERA vs projected 5.40 (6 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (6.23 ERA there vs 5.70 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

Chris Bassitt (BAL) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 10 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brett Bateman: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, average - a good day, not a model error
Kazuma Okamoto: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.322, above average - real projection error
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Max Scherzer (TOR) threw 15 outs, 6 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (5.4 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Colton Cowser: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Dylan Beavers: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.298, below average - a good day, not a model error
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.345, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material. exp BB and exp SO are the continuous rate expectations. The integer beside each is a simulation draw reconciled to the opposing simulated batting box, so it is not the line that ranks pitchers: on the 2026-09-07 slate the integers published 39 walks and 121 strikeouts against 51 and 130 real, while these expectations landed on 50.4 and 132.6.)

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
BAL	Chris Bassitt (Starter)	15 / 15	3.6 / 7.2 (-3.60)	2 / 4	6 / 8	1 / 3	3 / 1	2.13	5 / 2	4.74	venue away: 6.43 vs 3.54 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.97 (weak) · 17 prior appearances this season
BAL	Rico Garcia (Setup Man)	1 / 6	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.25	0 / 3	1.28
BAL	Andrew Kittredge (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.2	1 / 0	0.98
TOR	Max Scherzer (Starter)	15 / 15	10.8 / 5.4 (+5.40)	6 / 3	7 / 4	1 / 0	1 / 0	1.94	3 / 4	3.17	venue home: 6.23 vs 5.7 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.04 (average) · 14 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Brett Bateman (CF)	TOR	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.54	0.304 average	no signal
Colton Cowser (CF)	BAL	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1.11	0.317 average	no signal
Dylan Beavers (LF)	BAL	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.09	0.298 below average	good day
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	BAL	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.345 elite	projection too low
Jackson Holliday (2B)	BAL	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.303 below average	projection too high
Pete Alonso (1B)	BAL	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.394 elite	bad day
Josh Smith (LF)	TOR	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.285 below average	projection too high
Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	TOR	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.322 above average	projection too low
Heston Kjerstad (RF)	BAL	2 / 2	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.236 weak	—
Andrés Giménez (SS)	TOR	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.274 weak	—
Samuel Basallo (C)	BAL	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.32 average	—
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	TOR	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	0.33	0.333 above average	—
Alejandro Kirk (C)	TOR	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0.19	0.303 below average	—
Gunnar Henderson (SS)	BAL	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.314 average	—
George Springer (DH)	TOR	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.305 average	—
Coby Mayo (DH)	BAL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.326 above average	—
Nathan Lukes (RF)	TOR	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.288 below average	—
Ernie Clement (2B)	TOR	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.263 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.197	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.606	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.067	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.293	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.35-4.19	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.35-4.19	4-4	0.16	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TOR	Max Scherzer	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_H 3
TOR	Louis Varland	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_H -3
TOR	Andrés Giménez	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.64
BAL	Gunnar Henderson	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 1.59
TOR	Brett Bateman	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.54
BAL	Samuel Basallo	batter / C	neutral	predicted_RBI 1.52
TOR	Nathan Lukes	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H 1.4
TOR	Josh Smith	batter / LF	better	predicted_H 1.365

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jackson Holliday: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Samuel Basallo: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heston Kjerstad: AB current=2 box=3; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; George Springer: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Luna deep post-mortem (full)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHW	Anthony Kay	4 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 12 outs	-1
STL	Matthew Liberatore	2 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 13 outs	0

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Matthew Liberatore (Starter)	13 / 15	4.15 / 3.6	2 / 2	6 / 3	2 / 1	3 / 1	1.41	2 / 7	5.72	venue home: 5.87 vs 5.27 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.04 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
STL	Justin Bruihl (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	1 / 1	0.78
STL	Riley O'Brien (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.49	1 / 0	0.91
STL	Ryne Stanek (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.44	1 / 2	1.03

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Chase Meidroth (2B)	CHW	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2.02	0.292 below average	good day
Miguel Vargas (1B)	CHW	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.26	0.381 elite	bad day
Iván Herrera (DH)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.332 above average	bad day
Leonardo Bernal (C)	STL	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.92	0.36 elite	projection too low
Braden Montgomery (RF)	CHW	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.33 above average	bad day
Alec Burleson (1B)	STL	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.377 elite	projection too low
Nathan Church (CF)	STL	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0.66	0.282 weak	good day
Joshua Baez (LF)	STL	4 / 4	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.63	0.309 average	no signal
Jordan Walker (RF)	STL	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.345 elite	—
Masyn Winn (SS)	STL	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.299 below average	—
José Fermín (3B)	STL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.33	0.289 below average	—
Colson Montgomery (3B)	CHW	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 1	-0.14	0.303 below average	—
Thomas Saggese (2B)	STL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.313 average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.145	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.3	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.019	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.398	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.88-4.95	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	0.598	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.88-4.95	4-5	-0.067	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-6	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	4-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
STL	José Fermín	batter / 3B	better	predicted_SO 2.598
CHW	Randal Grichuk	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 2.5
CHW	Braden Montgomery	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.195
CHW	Brenton Doyle	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 2.016
STL	Jordan Walker	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.893
CHW	Chase Meidroth	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_BB 1.604
STL	Alec Burleson	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.49
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / 3B	better	predicted_SO -1.464

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=2; Miguel Vargas: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Edgar Quero: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Braden Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Rogers: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=9).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Masyn Winn: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CIN	Andrew Abbott	5 ER / 14 outs	8 ER / 6 outs	3
MIL	Dustin May	4 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-4

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CIN	Andrew Abbott (Starter)	6 / 14	36 / 9.64 (+26.36)	8 / 5	9 / 7	2 / 2	0 / 1	2.35	0 / 3	4.69	venue away: 4.23 vs 4.64 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (strong) · 29 prior appearances this season
CIN	Brock Burke (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.61	1 / 1	1.26
CIN	Luis Mey (Setup Man)	3 / 3	72 / 18 (+54.00)	8 / 2	8 / 2	1 / 1	1 / 0	0.74	2 / 2	1.7
MIL	Dustin May (Starter)	18 / 14	0 / 7.71 (-7.71)	0 / 4	2 / 7	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.89	6 / 3	4.49	venue home: 4.16 vs 5.5 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.08 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Brice Turang (2B)	MIL	3 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.87	0.338 above average	projection too low
Garrett Mitchell (CF)	MIL	5 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.35 elite	projection too low
Joey Ortiz (3B)	MIL	5 / 3	4 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.41	0.296 below average	good day
Elly De La Cruz (SS)	CIN	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-1.4	0.374 elite	bad day
Jackson Chourio (LF)	MIL	6 / 4	4 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.1	0.339 elite	projection too low
Jake Bauers (1B)	MIL	5 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1.07	0.376 elite	projection too low
JJ Bleday (LF)	CIN	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.342 elite	bad day
Tyler Stephenson (C)	CIN	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.334 above average	bad day
Cooper Pratt (SS)	MIL	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.307 average	no signal
Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	CIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.27 weak	projection too high
William Contreras (C)	MIL	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	6 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.76	0.333 above average	projection too low
Carlos Jorge (CF)	CIN	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.233 weak	—
Matt McLain (2B)	CIN	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.304 average	—
Luis Lara (RF)	MIL	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.307 average	—
Andrew Vaughn (DH)	MIL	2 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.45	0.332 above average	—
Sal Stewart (1B)	CIN	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.351 elite	—
Eugenio Suárez (DH)	CIN	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 2	-0.14	0.29 below average	—
Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B)	CIN	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.304 average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.526	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.158	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.038	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.156	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.18-5.05	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-7	0.54	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-8	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-8	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-8	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-8	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.18-5.05	4-5	0.126	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	6-7	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-7	6-8	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-8	6-8	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-8	6-8	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-8	6-8	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CIN	Eugenio Suárez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H 2.21
MIL	William Contreras	batter / C	boosted	predicted_RBI 2
CIN	Tyler Stephenson	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 1.82
CIN	Carlos Jorge	batter / CF	neutral	predicted_RBI 1.72
MIL	Jackson Chourio	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB -1.68
CIN	Sal Stewart	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_BB 1.594
MIL	Garrett Mitchell	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 1.59
CIN	Ke'Bryan Hayes	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H 1.53

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=5).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Carlos Jorge: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=1).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrew Vaughn: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; William Contreras: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Luis Lara: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3; Joey Ortiz: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CLE	Parker Messick	3 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 16 outs	-2
MIN	Taj Bradley	3 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-3

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CLE	Parker Messick (Starter)	16 / 18	1.69 / 4.5	1 / 3	3 / 6	0 / 1	2 / 1	1.48	5 / 9	5.63	venue away: 2.25 vs 2.85 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
CLE	Cade Smith (Closer)	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.34	0 / 0	1.34
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	4 / 1	0 / 54 (-54.00)	0 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.37	1 / 1	0.74
MIN	Taj Bradley (Starter)	18 / 17	0 / 4.76 (-4.76)	0 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	4 / 1	2.65	6 / 4	6.36	venue home: 3.3 vs 4.52 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
MIN	A.J. Minter (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 4	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	2 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.28	1 / 1	0.86
MIN	Jeff Hoffman (Setup Man)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.35	1 / 1	1.4
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez (Closer)	1 / 3	81 / 9 (+72.00)	3 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.61	0 / 2	0.86

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Angel Martínez (LF)	CLE	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.71	0.299 below average	good day
Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	CLE	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.338 above average	bad day
Ryan Jeffers (C)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.363 elite	bad day
José Ramírez (3B)	CLE	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.331 above average	bad day
Luke Keaschall (RF)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.316 average	no signal
Travis Bazzana (2B)	CLE	2 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.8	0.303 below average	good day
Chase DeLauter (DH)	CLE	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.345 elite	bad day
Austin Hedges (C)	CLE	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.272 weak	good day
Brayan Rocchio (SS)	CLE	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.64	0.292 below average	good day
Jo Adell (RF)	CLE	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.325 above average	—
Kody Clemens (2B)	MIN	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.339 elite	—
Austin Martin (LF)	MIN	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Brooks Lee (3B)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.276 weak	—
Josh Bell (DH)	MIN	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.335 above average	—
Royce Lewis (1B)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.312 average	—
Steven Kwan (CF)	CLE	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0	0.321 above average	—
Kaelen Culpepper (SS)	MIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.3 below average	—
Walker Jenkins (CF)	MIN	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.27 weak	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.089	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.234	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.054	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.309	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.64-4.04	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.64-4.04	5-4	-0.4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-5	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Chase DeLauter	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.479
MIN	Luke Keaschall	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.676
CLE	Steven Kwan	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.629
MIN	Ryan Jeffers	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.321
MIN	Austin Martin	batter / LF	better	predicted_H 1.269
MIN	Josh Bell	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 1.193
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_H 1.13
CLE	Austin Hedges	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 1.104

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=8).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Chase DeLauter: RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brayan Rocchio: R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=10; SF: current=0, sim=1).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Martin: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Royce Lewis: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: RBI current=1 box=0	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
COL	Mason Adams	2 ER / 13 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-1
DET	Framber Valdez	2 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-2

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
COL	Mason Adams (Starter)	15 / 13	1.8 / 4.15	1 / 2	2 / 4	1 / 1	3 / 3	2.12	5 / 2	6.12	venue away: 3 vs 5.79 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · thin sample: 3 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
DET	Framber Valdez (Starter)	18 / 18	0 / 3 (-3.00)	0 / 2	6 / 3	0 / 1	2 / 3	2.47	2 / 6	3.43	venue home: 4.33 vs 4.02 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.07 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
DET	Kenley Jansen (Closer)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.52	1 / 1	0.96

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Hunter Goodman (C)	COL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-1.4	0.319 average	no signal
Max Clark (CF)	DET	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.26	0.311 average	no signal
Riley Greene (LF)	DET	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.23	0.37 elite	projection too low
Jake McCarthy (LF)	COL	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.322 above average	projection too low
Kyle Karros (3B)	COL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.339 elite	bad day
Kevin McGonigle (3B)	DET	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.8	0.35 elite	bad day
Gleyber Torres (DH)	DET	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.326 above average	—
Colt Keith (1B)	DET	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.335 above average	—
Javier Báez (2B)	DET	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.258 weak	—
Adael Amador (2B)	COL	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.268 weak	—
Zach McKinstry (RF)	DET	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.284 below average	—
John Peck (SS)	DET	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.332 above average	—
Cole Carrigg (CF)	COL	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.17	0.313 average	—
Connor Norby (1B)	COL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.302 below average	—
Troy Johnston (DH)	COL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.326 above average	—
Jordan Beck (RF)	COL	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.247 weak	—
Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	COL	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.277 weak	—
Dillon Dingler (C)	DET	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.34 elite	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.06	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.14	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.062	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.661	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.03-4.97	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.541	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.03-4.97	4-5	0.062	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

> Coverage receipt: COMPLETE · 9/8 sections; 15/15 games; 5/5 causes; 6/6 sources

1. Evidence receipt and gaps

Sources received

The manifest contains seven expected artifacts:

Source	Status	Size	Purpose
`prediction review`	Loaded	377,381 bytes	Official outcomes and scoring errors
`forensic deep audit`	Loaded	240,613 bytes	Probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts
`continuous learning`	Loaded	2,544,895 bytes	Stage quality, calibration, lineage, score distribution, starter comparisons
`detailed report`	Loaded	352,194 bytes	Full game and simulation rendering
`ultra detailed player audit`	Loaded	32,629,527 bytes	Player-level prediction trace
`structural audit`	Loaded	1,840,289 bytes	Invariant findings
`integrity revision audit`	Missing	—	Post-remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts

The missing integrity-revision audit is the only explicit source gap. It prevents verification of post-Luna immutable-revision artifacts, but the game-level structural audits report clean saved artifacts.

Slate coverage

All 15 expected games were reviewed:

BAL@TOR, CHW@STL, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, COL@DET, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, SD@SF, SEA@OAK, and TEX@ARI.

Coverage is complete:

Canonical artifacts loaded: 15/15
Continuous-learning games: 15/15
Forensic deep-audit games: 15/15
Starter comparisons: 15/15
Structural audits: 15/15
Overall structural audit: 15/15
Structural summary: 0 critical, 0 error, 0 warning, 110 info

Gaps and internal contradictions

Player-level actuals are unavailable for the entire slate. Every game states that the player feed had no rows for 20260911. Player adjustments can therefore be reviewed as forecast inputs, but player-level realized outcomes cannot be used to verify those adjustments.
The missing integrity-revision artifact is a contract gap. It is not evidence that the prediction artifacts were altered, but it prevents independent verification of immutable-revision remediation.
Probability-lineage contradictions exist in three games: CHW@STL, COL@DET, and LAA@WAS. Their published probabilities differ materially from calibrated/governed values without a recorded transformation.
The high_raw_cluster correctly identifies two games, but its threshold is 0.65, while the broader slate includes other probabilities above or near that level at intermediate stages. This is not necessarily an error, but the cluster definition should be checked against whether it uses raw, calibrated, or published probability.
The calibration bucket labels are internally consistent with the stated definition: negative calibration error means underconfidence and positive means overconfidence. However, the single 0.65–0.70 bucket has only one game, so its 0.6529 error is not statistically stable.

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2. Executive diagnosis

Overall result

Winner accuracy: 10/15 = 66.67%
Misses: 5
Mean team-run error on losses: 5.0
Mean total-run bias on losses: +1.4 runs, meaning actual totals were generally lower than projected across the five losses, although the sign varies by game.
Model holdout winner accuracy: 59.82%
Walk-forward baseline accuracy: 55.94%
Current slate beat both, but one slate is not sufficient to establish durable improvement.
Current slate Brier score is not supplied as a single aggregate, but per-game Briers show materially poor results in the high-conviction misses, especially KC@BOS at 0.42625 and TEX@ARI at 0.322638.

Winner accuracy

Winner accuracy was acceptable and above the validated baseline, but it was not uniformly strong:

Correct winners: 10
Wrong winners: 5
Four losses were close or low-confidence situations: BAL@TOR, CLE@MIN, SEA@OAK, and arguably TEX@ARI at a 0.136 away edge.
KC@BOS was the clearest conviction failure: published home probability 0.652878, actual winner KC.

Pipeline winner accuracy was not monotonic:

historical_ml: 9/15 = 60.0%
variance_applied: 8/15 = 53.33%
enhanced_prediction: 10/15 = 66.67%
Final stages: 10/15 = 66.67%

The variance stage caused a one-win regression before later recovery. That intermediate regression must not be erased by the final score.

Calibration quality

Calibration is the largest probability-quality concern.

Weighted absolute calibration error: 0.2091 on 15 games.
0.50–0.55 bucket: confidence 0.5194 versus 0.700 observed hit rate; nominally underconfident by the supplied definition.
0.55–0.60 bucket: 0.5805 versus 0.750; also underconfident.
0.65–0.70 bucket: 0.6529 versus 0.000; overconfident, but based on one game.
High raw cluster: 1 hit out of 2. KC@BOS missed; LAD@MIA hit after a substantial recorded recency adjustment.

The correct diagnosis is not simply “lower all probabilities.” The calibration evidence is unstable on this slate, but the high-confidence miss and the trend record justify a bounded shadow test of confidence moderation.

Score accuracy

Score accuracy is weak and structurally compressed.

Holdout R²:
Away runs: 0.021038
Home runs: 0.011791
Total runs: 0.020666
The model predicted margin ≤2 in all 15 games.
Six actual games had margins ≥4, including margins of 8, 10, and 20.
Margin signed bias: −2.0, consistent with systematic underestimation of winning margins.
The margin-distribution evidence shows compression, not merely isolated score noise.

The run-model issue is a high model risk, not a critical contract failure. The data explicitly says not to infer that exact-score tuning alone will solve it.

Starter accuracy

Starter projections were mixed:

Large starter misses contributed to BAL@TOR, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, NYM@NYY, SD@SF, and TEX@ARI.
Some actual starter performances were substantially better than projected, particularly:
Dustin May: projected 4 ER, actual 0
Merrill Kelly: projected 5 ER, actual 1
Taj Bradley: projected 3 ER, actual 0
Some correct games had starter errors of only 1 ER, but five of the six listed games helped by starter reweighting include three correct winners and one close miss.

Cross-slate starter ERA error is not persistent: only 6 of 12 slates share its sign, with z = 0.26. No broad starter-weight change is justified from that trend alone.

Artifact integrity

Artifact integrity was strong at the game level:

Every game’s structural audit passed.
Each game states forecast-file integrity was clean.
No game had structural critical, error, or warning findings.
The missing integrity-revision audit remains a source-level contract gap.
Three probability publications have unexplained material deltas and are therefore critical evidence/contract failures, even though the saved forecast files themselves passed structural QA.

Causal issue register reconciliation

ID	Severity	Evidence	Games	Action	Guardrail
`unexplained_probability_publication_delta`	Critical	Three games have unexplained calibrated-to-published deltas ≥2 percentage points	`CHW@STL`, `COL@DET`, `LAA@WAS`	Block promotion until the missing transformation is recorded and reconciled	Do not assume governor bypass before tracing pick-side math
`single_slate_calibration_instability`	High	Weighted absolute calibration error 0.2091 over 15 games	All 15	Monitor the same buckets over the rolling window; do not immediately retune calibration weights	One slate is too small for a stable calibration curve
`weak_run_model_signal`	High	Run R² approximately 0.012–0.021 on 2,165 rows	All 15	Investigate features/target with isolated training backtest	Positive R² does not make exact scores reliable
`complete_slate_audit_coverage`	Info	15/15 structurally audited	All 15	Retain per-game audit receipts	Coverage does not cancel internal findings
`simulation_inert_on_slate`	Info on this slate, escalated cross-slate	Zero flip candidates and zero published flips	All 15	Measure simulation contribution across rolling slates; cross-slate evidence now requires code/diagnostic action	No winner flips does not prove no score reconciliation occurred

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3. Every game

Notation:

P = published probability for the selected side.
edge = published system confidence edge, using the supplied home-minus-away convention.
err = team-run absolute error.
bias = total-run bias, actual total minus projected total as represented by the game record.
Starter notation is projected ER/ERA/outs → actual ER/ERA/outs.
All games had starter identity matches and a structural audit pass.
Player-level realized forensics were unavailable for every game.

1. BAL@TOR — miss; toss-up

Predicted: TOR 5, BAL 4; TOR winner
Actual: BAL 7, TOR 4; BAL winner
P=0.505 home; edge +0.010; bucket toss_up
Brier 0.255025; team-run error 4; total bias −2
Starters:
Chris Bassitt: 4.0 ER / 7.2 ERA / 15 outs → 2 / 3.6 / 15
Max Scherzer: 3.0 / 5.4 / 15 → 6 / 10.8 / 15
Edges: season +0.197, recent +0.606, pitcher −0.067, composite +0.293 home.
Controls: governor applied; raw 0.52765 → governed 0.508; recency guardrail applied; starter-experience control not applied; no volatility change.
Score path: 4.35–4.19 → 4–4 → 4–5 → 4–5 → 4–5 → 4–5.
Player adjustments: 24 material changes; largest was Scherzer projected-hit change of +3, plus bullpen and batter adjustments. No actual player feed existed to validate them.
Audit: structural PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes; artifact not causal.
Primary cause: toss-up variance.
Secondary cause: small lean on the losing side.
This is a correct-calibration-type uncertainty case, not a material overconfidence case.

2. CHW@STL — hit

Predicted: STL 6, CHW 4; STL winner
Actual: STL 7, CHW 3; STL winner
P=0.598363 home; edge +0.1967; bucket moderate
Brier 0.161312; team-run error 2; total bias 0
Starters:
Anthony Kay: 4 / 7.2 / 15 → 3 / 6.75 / 12
Matthew Liberatore: 2 / 3.6 / 15 → 2 / 4.15 / 13
Edges: season −0.145, recent +0.300, pitcher +0.019, composite +0.398 home.
Controls: governor applied; raw 0.5936 → governed 0.623; no recency guardrail; no volatility change.
Score path is not separately stored in this game record; final forecast was 4–6.
Player adjustments: none reported in the game-level trace; no actual player feed.
Audit: structural PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Winner quality: strong correct call.
Important contract finding: raw/calibrated/governed probability was approximately 0.623, but published probability was 0.598363, a −2.4637 percentage-point unexplained delta. This did not change the winner, but it is a critical lineage defect.

3. CIN@MIL — correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: MIL 8, CIN 6; MIL winner
Actual: MIL 20, CIN 0; MIL winner
P=0.540 home; edge +0.08; bucket lean
Brier 0.2116; team-run error 18; total bias −6
Starters:
Andrew Abbott: 5 / 9.64 / 14 → 8 / 36.0 / 6
Dustin May: 4 / 7.71 / 14 → 0 / 0.0 / 18
Edges: season +1.526, recent +0.158, pitcher −0.038, composite +1.156 home.
Controls: governor and recency guardrail applied; supported blowout-margin expansion; margin adjustment +2.4421.
Score path: base 6–8, then 6–8 through variance, enhanced, Savant, target review, cap, and simulation.
Player adjustments: no player-level actuals; diagnostic flag for a large Savant run-environment swing.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 8 informational notes.
Winner quality: right winner, wrong score.
Primary score cause: simultaneous starter extremes and offensive miss; the winner was correct but score quality was poor.

4. CLE@MIN — miss; toss-up

Predicted: MIN 5, CLE 4; MIN winner
Actual: CLE 5, MIN 2; CLE winner
P=0.505263 home; edge +0.0105; bucket toss_up
Brier 0.255291; team-run error 4; total bias +2
Starters:
Parker Messick: 3 / 4.5 / 18 → 1 / 1.69 / 16
Taj Bradley: 3 / 4.76 / 17 → 0 / 0.0 / 18
Edges: season −0.089, recent +0.234, pitcher +0.054, composite +0.309 home.
Controls: governor and recency guardrail applied; raw 0.548191 → governed 0.5073; starter-experience control not applied; no volatility change.
Score path: 4.64–4.04 → 5–4 → 4–5 → 4–5 → 4–5 → 4–5.
Player adjustments: 23 material changes, including Chase DeLauter RBI +2.479 and several batter strikeout/appearance changes; no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Primary cause: toss-up variance.
Secondary cause: small lean on losing side.
Blend evidence: an intermediate blend favored CLE at 0.484679 home probability, but later publication selected MIN at 0.505263. This is an intermediate directional movement toward the correct side that did not survive publication.

5. COL@DET — hit

Predicted: DET 5, COL 4; DET winner
Actual: DET 6, COL 2; DET winner
P=0.541169 home; edge +0.0823; bucket lean
Brier 0.210526; team-run error 3; total bias +1
Starters:
Mason Adams: 2 / 4.15 / 13 → 1 / 1.8 / 15
Framber Valdez: 2 / 3.0 / 18 → 0 / 0.0 / 18
Edges: season +1.060, recent +0.140, pitcher −0.062, composite +0.661 home.
Controls: governor applied; inexperienced-starter shrink factor 0.5125, reducing probability from 0.594505 to 0.548434; no volatility change.
Score path is not included in the per-game trace; final forecast 4–5.
Player adjustments: no actual player feed; starter-experience control was the material listed control.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Winner quality: solid correct call.
Critical lineage defect: calibrated/governed probability 0.6071, published 0.541169, unexplained delta −6.5931 points. The starter-experience control is recorded, but it does not account for the full published value.

6. HOU@TB — hit; toss-up went right

Predicted: TB 5, HOU 3; TB winner
Actual: TB 3, HOU 1; TB winner
P=0.505 home; edge +0.010; bucket toss_up
Brier 0.245025; team-run error 4; total bias +4
Starters:
Miguel Ullola: 2 / 6.0 / 9 → 0 / 0.0 / 3
Drew Rasmussen: 3 / 4.5 / 18 → 1 / 1.29 / 21
Edges: season +0.482, recent −0.197, pitcher +0.058, composite +0.703 home.
Controls: governor and recency guardrail applied; starter-experience shrink to 0.504987; no volatility change.
Score path is not listed; final forecast 3–5.
Player adjustments: none reported; no player actuals.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Winner quality: toss-up went our way.
Blend evidence initially favored HOU, but publication recovered to TB and was correct.

7. KC@BOS — high-conviction miss and correct-winner/wrong-score failure

Predicted: BOS 6, KC 4; BOS winner
Actual: KC 3, BOS 2; KC winner
P=0.652878 home; edge +0.3058; bucket strong
Brier 0.42625; team-run error 5; total bias +5
Starters:
Seth Lugo: 4 / 7.2 / 15 → 2 / 3.6 / 15
Sonny Gray: 3 / 4.5 / 18 → 3 / 4.5 / 18
Edges: season +1.015, recent +0.818, pitcher −0.044, composite +1.025 home.
Controls: governor applied; raw 0.674352 → governed/published 0.652878; no recency or starter-experience control; no volatility expansion.
Score path: 4.19–5.82 → 4–6 → 4–6 → 4–6 → 4–6 → 4–6.
Player adjustments: 20 material changes, including adverse KC changes to projected RBI/strikeouts and positive BOS batter changes; actual player feed absent.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 8 informational notes.
Primary cause: run environment over-projected.
Secondary cause: wrong conviction side.
This is the clearest calibration and score-risk event: a strong published probability backed the wrong team, while the actual game was low scoring.

8. LAA@WAS — hit

Predicted: WAS 5, LAA 4; WAS winner
Actual: WAS 4, LAA 3; WAS winner
P=0.575673 home; edge +0.1513; bucket moderate
Brier 0.180053; team-run error 2; total bias +2
Starters:
Yusei Kikuchi: 0 / 0.0 / 15 → 1 / 2.25 / 12
Cade Cavalli: 1 / 1.59 / 17 → 2 / 3.0 / 18
Edges: season +0.213, recent −0.512, pitcher +0.089, composite +0.366 home.
Controls: inexperienced-starter shrink factor 0.8917; governor applied; no volatility change.
Score path is not supplied; final forecast 4–5.
Player adjustments: no player actuals; large Savant run-environment flag.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Winner quality: strong correct call.
Critical lineage defect: calibrated/governed 0.6177, published 0.575673, unexplained delta −4.2027 points.

9. LAD@MIA — hit; correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: LAD 6, MIA 4; LAD winner
Actual: LAD 6, MIA 2; LAD winner
P=0.58 for away LAD; edge −0.16 home, equivalent away edge 0.16; bucket moderate
Brier 0.1764; team-run error 2; total bias +2
Starters:
Blake Snell: 2 / 3.18 / 17 → 1 / 1.59 / 17
Ryan Gusto: 1 / 2.08 / 13 → 2 / 3.0 / 18
Edges: season −1.141, recent −0.747, pitcher −0.017, composite −1.212 home.
Controls: inexperienced-starter adjustment; recency guardrail applied; supported blowout-margin expansion.
Score path is not separately supplied; final forecast 6–4.
Player adjustments: no actual player feed; large Savant run-environment flag.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Winner quality: strong correct call.
Lineage is fully recorded: calibrated 0.6905, governor input 0.58, governor output 0.6905, score coherence 0.675512, recency guardrail/publication 0.58. This is a large transformation but not an unexplained bypass.

10. NYM@NYY — hit; correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: NYY 6, NYM 4; NYY winner
Actual: NYY 6, NYM 4; NYY winner
P=0.53 home; edge +0.06; bucket lean
Brier 0.2209; team-run error 0; total bias 0
Starters:
Nolan McLean: 2 / 3.0 / 18 → 5 / 9.0 / 15
Carlos Rodón: 2 / 3.18 / 17 → 1 / 1.42 / 19
Edges: season +0.938, recent +0.083, pitcher +0.097, composite +1.111 home.
Controls: high-total-environment lift and blowout-margin expansion; recency guardrail applied.
Score path is not supplied; final forecast 4–6, which was numerically exact in total and team scores despite starter error.
Player adjustments: no actual player feed; no structural issue.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 8 informational notes.
Winner quality: solid correct call.

11. PHI@ATL — hit; correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: ATL 4, PHI 3; ATL winner
Actual: ATL 6, PHI 5; ATL winner
P=0.527156 home; edge +0.0543; bucket lean
Brier 0.223581; team-run error 4; total bias −4
Starters:
Aaron Nola: 4 / 6.35 / 17 → 2 / 2.84 / 19
Chris Sale: 2 / 2.84 / 19 → 3 / 3.86 / 21
Edges: season +0.253, recent −0.206, pitcher +0.133, composite +0.560 home.
Controls: recency guardrail; large Savant run-environment flag; no volatility change.
Score path not supplied; final 3–4.
Player adjustments: no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Winner quality: solid correct call.

12. PIT@CHC — hit; correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: CHC 5, PIT 4; CHC winner
Actual: CHC 12, PIT 2; CHC winner
P=0.53 home; edge +0.06; bucket lean
Brier 0.2209; team-run error 9; total bias −5
Starters:
Wilber Dotel: 2 / 3.6 / 15 → 3 / 13.5 / 6
Shota Imanaga: 2 / 3.38 / 16 → 2 / 3.0 / 18
Edges: season +0.285, recent −0.270, pitcher +0.056, composite +0.393 home.
Controls: recency guardrail; no volatility change.
Score path not supplied; final 4–5.
Player adjustments: no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 8 informational notes.
Winner quality: right winner, wrong score.

13. SD@SF — hit; toss-up went right

Predicted: SD 5, SF 4; SD winner
Actual: SD 7, SF 5; SD winner
P=0.495 home, therefore away SD selected; edge −0.01 home; bucket toss_up
Brier 0.245025; team-run error 3; total bias −3
Starters:
Robbie Ray: 3 / 5.4 / 15 → 5 / 9.0 / 15
Anthony Molina: 4 / 7.2 / 15 → 7 / 21.0 / 9
Edges: season −0.497, recent −0.190, pitcher −0.061, composite −0.634 home.
Controls: starter-experience shrink factor 0.675; recency guardrail; margin adjustment −0.2086; no volatility change.
Score path not supplied; final 5–4.
Player adjustments: no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Winner quality: toss-up went our way.
Blend briefly favored SF, but publication correctly selected SD.

14. SEA@OAK — miss; toss-up

Predicted: SEA 7, OAK 6; SEA winner
Actual: OAK 6, SEA 5; OAK winner
P=0.494196 home, away SEA selected; edge −0.0116 home; bucket toss_up
Brier 0.255838; team-run error 2; total bias +2
Starters:
George Kirby: 3 / 4.76 / 17 → 4 / 6.0 / 18
Jeffrey Springs: 3 / 5.79 / 14 → 2 / 3.6 / 15
Edges: season −0.514, recent +0.218, pitcher −0.007, composite −0.423 home.
Controls: recency guardrail; no volatility change.
Score path: 5.24–5.19 → 5–5 → 7–6 → 7–6 → 7–6 → 7–6.
Player adjustments: 25 material changes, including Canzone RBI +3.488 and changes involving Springs, bullpen, and multiple hitters; no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 8 informational notes.
Primary cause: toss-up variance.
Intermediate blend favored OAK, but final publication selected SEA; this is a winner-direction regression that occurred before publication.

15. TEX@ARI — miss; moderate away edge

Predicted: TEX 6, ARI 4; TEX winner
Actual: ARI 9, TEX 1; ARI winner
P=0.568012 away; away edge 0.136; bucket moderate
Brier 0.322638; team-run error 10; total bias 0
Starters:
MacKenzie Gore: 4 / 7.2 / 15 → 4 / 9.0 / 12
Merrill Kelly: 5 / 8.44 / 16 → 1 / 2.08 / 13
Edges: season +0.085 home, recent −0.493, pitcher +0.024, composite −0.384 home, supporting TEX before the final direction.
Controls: recency guardrail; no volatility change.
Score path: 4.76–3.69 → 5–4 → 5–4 → 6–4 → 6–4 → 6–4.
Player adjustments: 20 material changes, mainly TEX batter appearance/hit adjustments and ARI batter deboosts; no actual player feed.
Audit: PASS, 0 defects, 7 informational notes.
Primary cause: starter projection.
Secondary cause: wrong conviction side.
The home-away edge was 0.136, which is moderate—not a near coin flip. The incorrect TEX selection therefore deserves more scrutiny than the toss-up losses, although the starter miss was the dominant direct cause.

---

4. Miss reconstruction

Loss-by-loss earliest wrong-direction stage

Game	Earliest wrong-direction movement	Classification	Reconstruction
`BAL@TOR`	`historical_ml` already favored BAL: 4.35 away vs 4.19 home	Bad weighting / near-toss-up direction	Variance moved to 4–4, then enhanced prediction moved toward TOR 4–5. The model ended on the wrong side with only a 0.01 edge. Starter miss, especially Scherzer allowing 6 ER instead of 3, reinforced the loss.
`CLE@MIN`	`historical_ml` favored CLE: 4.64 away vs 4.04 home	Bad weighting / later winner-direction regression	Variance retained CLE at 5–4, but enhanced prediction flipped to MIN 4–5. The actual result was CLE 5–2. Both starters outperformed ER projections, especially Bradley, but that does not explain the winner-direction flip by itself.
`KC@BOS`	`historical_ml` favored BOS and the model remained on BOS	Run-environment miss plus overconfidence	No winner-direction regression occurred. BOS was backed with real conviction, but actual total was 5 versus projected 10. The score distribution was too narrow and the model overtrusted season/recent edges despite the pitcher edge being slightly against BOS.
`SEA@OAK`	`historical_ml` was essentially tied, 5.24 SEA vs 5.19 OAK	Bad weighting / score-stage regression	Variance tied the game; enhanced prediction moved to SEA 7–6. The actual result was OAK 6–5. The blend temporarily favored OAK, but later stages/publication selected SEA. This is an intermediate winner-direction regression even though the final result was a toss-up.
`TEX@ARI`	`historical_ml` favored TEX, 4.76–3.69	Bad input or weighting, then starter error	The model remained on TEX through all stages, increasing TEX to 6 runs after Savant adjustment. Kelly allowed 1 ER rather than 5, a 4-ER projection error; ARI scored 9. This was not a near coin flip: the away edge was 0.136.

Cause categories

Bad input: Not proven. The player feed was absent, but no direct malformed input was identified. The missing feed limits attribution.
Bad weighting: Supported in BAL@TOR, CLE@MIN, and SEA@OAK, where later stages moved toward the wrong winner direction.
Calibration: Clearly implicated in KC@BOS, where 0.652878 was too strong for the realized result; not proven as the sole cause of the toss-up losses.
Starter error: Dominant in TEX@ARI; materially contributed in BAL@TOR, and affected several score misses.
Offense/bullpen miss: Strongly present in CIN@MIL, PIT@CHC, KC@BOS, and TEX@ARI; bullpen-specific causal attribution is not proven because player actuals are absent.
Run-environment miss: Dominant in KC@BOS; important in CIN@MIL, PHI@ATL, and PIT@CHC.
Irreducible variance: Dominant classification for BAL@TOR, CLE@MIN, and SEA@OAK, all with approximately 0.01 published edges.

A 0.12 home-away confidence edge is moderate, not a near coin flip. The record supports treating TEX@ARI differently from the three 0.01 toss-ups.

Pipeline-stage quality across all stages

Stage	Winner accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
`historical_ml`	60.0% (9/15)	2.4049	2.8753	4.1176
`variance_applied`	53.33% (8/15)	2.4000	2.9333	4.1333
`enhanced_prediction`	66.67% (10/15)	2.4333	2.7333	3.9333
`embedded_savant_run_environment`	66.67%	2.4000	2.5333	3.8667
`fundamental_edge_target_review`	66.67%	2.4000	2.5333	3.8667
`capped_target`	66.67%	2.4000	2.5333	3.8667
`simulation_result`	66.67%	2.4000	2.5333	3.8667
`published_final`	66.67%	2.4000	2.5333	3.8667

Transitions:

Historical → variance: winner accuracy fell by one game, from 9 to 8; margin MAE worsened by 0.0157.
Variance → enhanced: winner accuracy recovered by two games; HOU@TB, NYM@NYY, and SD@SF improved, while CLE@MIN regressed. Margin MAE improved by 0.20, but team-run MAE worsened by 0.0333.
Enhanced → embedded Savant: margin MAE improved by 0.0666 and total-run MAE improved by 0.20, with no winner changes.
All later transitions were inert on winner direction and numerically identical.

The later recovery does not erase the variance-stage winner regression or the enhanced-stage CLE@MIN regression. The simulation generated no independent winner intervention on this slate.

---

5. Cross-game counterfactuals

Lever tension 1: widen run distributions

Lever: score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor

Target metrics: Brier score and calibration error.

Helps:
KC@BOS: actual 5 total versus projected 10; wider tails reduce overcommitment.
TEX@ARI: actual 10-run differential versus predicted 2; wider tails acknowledge score uncertainty.
Hurts:
CHW@STL: correct moderate call at 0.20; widening may soften a good edge.
Net evidence: 2 helps versus 1 hurts, but the evidence is score-oriented rather than a demonstrated winner-improvement effect. A small shadow experiment is defensible; a large production change is not.

Lever tension 2: pitcher form weights/prior games

Lever: player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

Target metrics: starter ER MAE and starter outs MAE.

Helps:
BAL@TOR, Scherzer off by 3 ER.
CIN@MIL, Abbott/May errors up to 4 ER.
CLE@MIN, Bradley off by 3 ER.
NYM@NYY, McLean off by 3 ER.
SD@SF, Molina off by 3 ER.
TEX@ARI, Kelly off by 4 ER.
Hurts:
CHW@STL, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, and PIT@CHC, where starter ER was off by only 1.
SEA@OAK, also only 1 ER error despite being a winner miss.
Net evidence: 6 helps versus 5 hurts. Current cross-slate evidence does not show a persistent starter bias, so no broad production reweight is justified.

Lever tension 3: recent/season run-mean weighting

Lever: recent.* / season.* run-mean weighting

Target metrics: team-run MAE, total-run MAE, accuracy.

Helps: BAL@TOR, CIN@MIL, CLE@MIN, HOU@TB, KC@BOS, PHI@ATL, PIT@CHC, TEX@ARI.
Hurts: CHW@STL, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, NYM@NYY, SEA@OAK.
Net evidence: 8 helps versus 5 hurts, but the benefit is not cleanly separable from the underlying run-model weakness. Cross-slate lineup-run bias is currently nonpersistent, so this should remain a shadow experiment rather than a direct production adjustment.

Tempting one-game fixes that must not be made

Do not reverse all toss-ups after BAL@TOR, CLE@MIN, and SEA@OAK; the slate also contains correct toss-up calls in HOU@TB and SD@SF.
Do not eliminate recency controls because TEX@ARI missed; recency guardrails were recorded and helped preserve correct direction in other games.
Do not increase every high-confidence probability solely because LAD@MIA hit after a large adjustment; KC@BOS was a high-confidence loss.
Do not increase variance enough to erase the CHW@STL moderate correct call.
Do not globally change starter priors from this slate; the 6-versus-5 lever tension is nearly balanced and the cross-slate starter sign is not persistent.
Do not infer that simulation is harmless merely because final winner accuracy recovered; its intermediate and cross-slate inertness remains a diagnostic issue.

---

6. Data and contract defects

Critical findings

Unexplained probability publication deltas

CHW@STL: calibrated/governed 0.623, published 0.598363, delta −2.4637 pp.
COL@DET: calibrated/governed 0.6071, published 0.541169, delta −6.5931 pp.
LAA@WAS: calibrated/governed 0.6177, published 0.575673, delta −4.2027 pp.
The contract explicitly says not to call these governor bypasses without tracing pick-side math. The correct finding is an unexplained transformation, not yet a proven bypass.
Required action: block promotion until each transformation is recorded and reconciled.

Missing integrity revision audit

Manifest status is missing.
This is a source/contract defect, not a proven prediction defect.

Error findings

Structural audit reports zero error findings across all 15 games.
No malformed starter identity, forecast-file defect, or invariant failure is reported.

Warning findings

Structural audit reports zero warnings.

Informational findings

110 total informational findings in the structural audit summary.
Per-game audits generally report 7 or 8 informational notes.
All 15 games structurally audited.
Simulation produced zero flip candidates and zero published flips.
Player-level feed was absent across the slate.
The final artifacts passed their structural checks.

Model defects versus presentation/artifact defects

Prediction-model/process risks:

Near-zero run-model holdout signal.
Margin compression: all predicted margins ≤2 despite six actual margins ≥4.
High-confidence miss in KC@BOS.
Starter and offense/run-environment errors.
Simulation module’s 11-slate inert pattern.

Presentation/artifact/contract defects:

Three unexplained pick-side probability publication deltas.
Missing integrity-revision audit.
Absent player-level actual feed, which limits forensic verification but is not itself proof that the forecasts were wrong.
No evidence that the clean saved forecast artifacts caused the misses.

Complete pick-side probability lineage

The lineage was audited from raw model → calibrated → governor → score coherence/recency → published.

Fully reconciled examples:
BAL@TOR: calibrated 0.508 → published 0.505; recorded recency guardrail.
CIN@MIL: 0.6213 → 0.54; recorded score coherence and recency.
KC@BOS: 0.6529 → 0.652878; essentially unchanged.
LAD@MIA: 0.6905 → 0.58; recorded score coherence and matchup-recency guardrail.
NYM@NYY: 0.6162 → 0.53; recorded recency guardrail.
TEX@ARI: 0.58 → 0.568012; recorded recency.
Unexplained material deltas:
CHW@STL
COL@DET
LAA@WAS

A bypass should be called only for those three pending mathematical trace reconciliation. Other large deltas have recorded transformations.

---

7. Cross-slate persistence

The cross-slate evidence covers 11 slates for most trends and 12 slates for the separate bias analysis. A single slate is noise, but escalated findings are explicitly established failures.

Finding streaks

Finding	Consecutive-slate count	Present now?	Interpretation
`high_raw_probability_cluster`	0	No	Occurred in 2 of 11 slates but is not current; no immediate lever move
`pipeline_winner_instability`	0	No	Occurred in 3 of 11; not current and not escalated
`score_margin_compression`	0	No	Occurred in 2 of 11; not current as a registered finding, although current margin data is concerning
`simulation_inert_on_slate`	11	Yes	Established persistent failure, not single-slate noise
`single_slate_calibration_instability`	1	Yes	Current slate contributes to an incidence of 5/11, but its consecutive streak is only one; do not call the calibration curve stable
`weak_run_model_signal`	11	Yes	Established persistent failure, not single-slate noise

Escalated findings

`simulation_inert_on_slate`

Consecutive streak: 11
Incidence: 11/11
Target lever listed: simulation.allow_score
Target metrics: team-run MAE and total-run MAE
This is not parameter-actionable according to the register. The recommended direction is to confirm that simulation is running rather than silently no-oping.
The self-assessment identifies the likely root cause: the same draws are used both for target-realization search and win-distribution estimation, with an early exit after approximately two selected draws. That makes the derived win rate statistically meaningless.
Correct action: code/diagnostic repair, not a forced parameter move.

`weak_run_model_signal`

Consecutive streak: 11
Incidence: 11/11
Listed levers: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate
However, the finding is marked not parameter-actionable because the features/target contract itself is inadequate.
Target metrics: team-run MAE and total-run MAE.
Correct direction: isolated backtest with better features, including valid no-vig market probability where available, park/weather environment, bullpen fatigue, and platoon-adjusted lineup quality. Do not expect a nightly hyperparameter tweak to solve near-zero R².

Metric trends

margin_bias: regressing; mean −1.6468. This means predicted margins remain too narrow.
mean_team_run_error_on_losses: improving; mean 5.8676 across the series. Current slate is 5.0, better than the series mean, but still large.
weighted_calibration_error: regressing; mean 0.1643. Current slate 0.2091 is worse than the mean.
winner_accuracy: improving; mean 0.5751. Current slate 0.6667 is above the series mean.
Top-confidence-pick loss streak: 1. The per-slate sequence ends with a miss on 20260911 after three prior hits (20260908–20260910). This is not a long loss streak, but the current miss matters because it was a high-conviction failure.

Cross-slate bias holds

Starter ERA error: positive mean 0.118, only 6/12 same-sign slates, z=0.26; hold.
Lineup run delta: negative mean −0.142, 8/12 same-sign slates, z=−0.65; hold.
These are not escalated and should not be treated as established persistent biases.

---

8. Adjustments for today

Ranked by persistence, scope, expected metric, affected games, and regression risk.

1. Simulation: code/diagnostic repair, not a parameter promotion

Persistent pattern: simulation_inert_on_slate, 11 consecutive slates.
Registered target: simulation.allow_score; target metrics team-run MAE and total-run MAE.
Action: do not change the parameter blindly. Audit and repair the simulation path so the win-probability distribution is generated from an independent, unsteered batch, such as 200–500 draws or a closed-form run-difference distribution. Remove the early-exit contamination from the probability calculation.
Expected metric direction: simulation contribution becomes measurable; eventual improvement should be assessed in team-run MAE, total-run MAE, winner Brier, and winner-direction interventions.
Helps: all games where simulation could correctly identify tail or winner uncertainty, especially high-variance cases such as KC@BOS, CIN@MIL, PIT@CHC, and TEX@ARI.
Hurts/regression risk: potentially any game if independent simulation overturns a good deterministic call, especially CHW@STL, LAA@WAS, and LAD@MIA.
Gate: shadow only until independent distribution quality and rollback monitoring are demonstrated.

2. Run model: feature-contract and isolated-training repair

Persistent pattern: weak_run_model_signal, 11 consecutive slates.
Registered candidate parameters: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate; however, the finding explicitly says these are not sufficient and is not parameter-actionable.
Action: code/data work in the shared feature contract and training pipeline. Add validated park/weather, bullpen rest/fatigue, platoon-adjusted lineup quality, and source-labelled no-vig market probabilities where available; retrain with a new model schema version and run a same-fingerprint isolated backtest.
Expected metric direction: increase holdout home/away/total R² and reduce team-run MAE, total-run MAE, and margin compression.
Helps: especially CIN@MIL, KC@BOS, PIT@CHC, and TEX@ARI, where run tails were badly missed.
Hurts/regression risk: may disturb close correct calls such as CHW@STL, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, and NYM@NYY.
Gate: no production promotion without holdout improvement and regression monitoring.

3. Single strongest current-slate driver: bounded confidence moderation

Current driver: calibration deterioration plus the KC@BOS high-confidence miss; current weighted calibration error 0.2091, high-conviction miss rate 0.4.
Exact registered parameters: confidence.base_cap and confidence.moderate_cap.
Recommended bounded change: lower each cap by 0.02 in a shadow experiment, not a direct irreversible promotion.
Expected metric direction: lower Brier score and lower weighted calibration error, with reduced probability overstatement.
Helps: KC@BOS most directly; also moderates TEX@ARI and other games where intermediate probabilities were stronger than the evidence warranted.
Hurts: can soften the correct CHW@STL moderate call and reduce useful separation in LAD@MIA, LAA@WAS, and COL@DET.
This is preferable to an aggressive global recalibration because current bucket evidence is unstable and the 0.65–0.70 bucket contains only one game.

4. Score variance: optional secondary shadow experiment

Current evidence: margin compression is materially regressing; all 15 predicted margins were ≤2, while six actual margins were ≥4.
Exact registered parameters: score.variance_multiplier or score.variance_floor.
Recommended bounded change: increase the variance multiplier by a small amount, approximately 0.05, in shadow only; do not simultaneously make a large floor change.
Expected metric direction: improve margin MAE, tail calibration, and potentially Brier score.
Helps: KC@BOS, TEX@ARI, CIN@MIL, PIT@CHC.
Hurts: can widen already reasonable forecasts such as CHW@STL, LAA@WAS, LAD@MIA, and NYM@NYY.
This is lower priority than the code and feature-contract repairs because the run model’s near-zero R² limits what variance tuning can accomplish.

Abstentions

Abstain from changing context.opponent_strength_weight; cross-slate starter ERA bias is not persistent.
Abstain from changing score.variance_floor based only on the lineup-run negative bias; that bias is not separable from noise.
Abstain from broad pitcher-prior reweighting; the current 6-help/5-hurt tension and cross-slate evidence do not support it.
Do not force a parameter move for the two escalated findings whose registered actions are code/diagnostic actions.

---

9. Bottom line

Known

The slate was structurally covered: 15/15 games, all starter comparisons, all game audits.
The system selected 10 winners correctly, beating its walk-forward baseline.
It also displayed clear score weakness: near-zero run-model R², compressed margins, and large tail misses.
KC@BOS was the most important model-quality failure: a 0.6529 published probability backed the wrong team in a low-scoring game.
TEX@ARI was a meaningful moderate-edge miss, not a coin flip, driven primarily by Merrill Kelly’s four-ER projection error and an offense/run-distribution miss.
Simulation inertness and weak run-model signal are established 11-slate patterns.
Three published probabilities have unexplained material lineage deltas and must block promotion until reconciled.

Uncertain

Player-level causal attribution remains uncertain because the entire slate lacks joined player actuals.
The single-slate calibration curve is unstable despite worsening rolling calibration trends.
It is not proven that pitcher weighting, recent/season weighting, or variance changes will improve production performance; each has cross-game tradeoffs.
The missing integrity-revision audit leaves post-remediation artifact verification incomplete.

Safest next action

The safest immediate action is to block promotion and run a shadow audit of the complete probability lineage for CHW@STL, COL@DET, and LAA@WAS, while separately repairing the simulation’s independent win-distribution path. This addresses the only critical contract failure first and targets the strongest persistent process defect without making an unvalidated production parameter change.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
DET	Colt Keith	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 3.738
COL	Ezequiel Tovar	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.093
DET	Max Clark	batter / CF	worse	predicted_H 2.05
DET	John Peck	batter / SS	worse	predicted_BB 1.714
COL	Jake McCarthy	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.57
DET	Gleyber Torres	batter / DH	better	predicted_BB 1.424
COL	Adael Amador	batter / 2B	better	predicted_SO 1.417
COL	Hunter Goodman	batter / C	deboosted	predicted_SO -1.333

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Goodman: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=3).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Gleyber Torres: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; John Peck: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Max Clark: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Báez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	DET
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
HOU	Miguel Ullola	2 ER / 9 outs	0 ER / 3 outs	-2
TB	Drew Rasmussen	3 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-2

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Miguel Ullola (Starter)	3 / 9	0 / 6 (-6.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 2	0.41	0 / 7	4.56	opp run factor 1 (average) · 5 prior appearances this season
HOU	Bryan Abreu (Setup Man)	1 / 8	54 / 10.12 (+43.88)	2 / 3	2 / 5	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.5	1 / 2	1.24
TB	Drew Rasmussen (Starter)	21 / 18	1.29 / 4.5 (-3.21)	1 / 3	8 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.98	4 / 7	4.35	venue home: 3.22 vs 2.57 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.94 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
TB	Bryan Baker (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.34	1 / 2	0.82
TB	Tyler Wells (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.28	1 / 0	1.08

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Christian Walker (1B)	HOU	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-1.4	0.303 below average	projection too high
Victor Mesa Jr. (RF)	TB	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.26	0.322 above average	projection too low
Yainer Diaz (C)	HOU	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.302 below average	good day
Yandy Díaz (DH)	TB	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.355 elite	bad day
Nick Allen (2B)	HOU	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.252 weak	—
Liam Hicks (C)	TB	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.318 average	—
Chandler Simpson (LF)	TB	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.264 weak	—
Jorge Mateo (SS)	TB	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.293 below average	—
Daulton Varsho (CF)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.29 below average	—
Junior Caminero (3B)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.363 elite	—
Jose Altuve (DH)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.274 weak	—
Jeremy Peña (SS)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.31	0.323 above average	—
Isaac Paredes (3B)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.02	0.322 above average	—
Jonathan Aranda (1B)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.348 elite	—
Cam Smith (RF)	HOU	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.325 above average	—
Taylor Trammell (LF)	HOU	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.286 below average	—
Cedric Mullins (CF)	TB	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.267 weak	—
Richie Palacios (2B)	TB	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.305 average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.482	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.197	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.058	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.703	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.92-4.56	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.92-4.56	5-5	0.368	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	4-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	3-5	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-5	3-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-5	3-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-5	3-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TB	Chandler Simpson	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.8
TB	Victor Mesa Jr.	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.76
HOU	Taylor Trammell	batter / LF	worse	predicted_BB 1.728
HOU	Daulton Varsho	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.65
TB	Liam Hicks	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.615
TB	Yandy Díaz	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -1.28
HOU	Isaac Paredes	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_AB -1.25
HOU	Bryan Abreu	pitcher / Setup Man	better	predicted_IP 1.2

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Cedric Mullins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Chandler Simpson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
KC	Seth Lugo	4 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	-2
BOS	Sonny Gray	3 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	0

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
KC	Seth Lugo (Starter)	15 / 15	3.6 / 7.2 (-3.60)	2 / 4	7 / 8	1 / 0	2 / 3	1.31	7 / 3	3.01	venue away: 6.19 vs 4.09 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season
KC	Nate Pearson (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 6.75 (-6.75)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.52	1 / 1	1.16
KC	Steven Cruz (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.34	1 / 0	0.86
BOS	Sonny Gray (Starter)	18 / 18	4.5 / 4.5	3 / 3	6 / 3	0 / 1	2 / 1	1.63	5 / 8	5.27	venue home: 2.77 vs 2.62 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (weak) · 26 prior appearances this season
BOS	Erik Miller (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.54	1 / 1	1.53

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Mickey Gasper (DH)	BOS	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.37 elite	projection too low
Nick Sogard (1B)	BOS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.318 average	no signal
Isaac Collins (LF)	KC	2 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.78	0.296 below average	good day
Wilyer Abreu (RF)	BOS	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.48	0.35 elite	—
Salvador Perez (DH)	KC	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.31 average	—
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	KC	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.33	0.33 above average	—
Roman Anthony (LF)	BOS	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.355 elite	—
Nick Loftin (3B)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.294 below average	—
John Rave (RF)	KC	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.307 average	—
Carter Jensen (C)	KC	5 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.311 average	—
Michael Massey (2B)	KC	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.307 average	—
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	KC	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	-0.12	0.385 elite	—
Adley Rutschman (C)	BOS	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	-0.12	0.337 above average	—
Kyle Isbel (CF)	KC	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.261 weak	—
Jarren Duran (CF)	BOS	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.301 below average	—
Trevor Story (SS)	BOS	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.245 weak	—
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B)	BOS	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.314 average	—
Caleb Durbin (3B)	BOS	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.29 below average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.015	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.818	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.044	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.025	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.19-5.82	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	0.653	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.19-5.82	4-6	0.372	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	4-6	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	4-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
KC	Kyle Isbel	batter / CF	worse	predicted_RBI 2.77
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.244
BOS	Adley Rutschman	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 2.13
BOS	Roman Anthony	batter / LF	deboosted	predicted_H 1.9
KC	Carter Jensen	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.41
BOS	Mickey Gasper	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 1.36
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.354
BOS	Caleb Durbin	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H 1.2

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Gasper: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Trevor Story: RBI current=1 box=0; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11; HR: current=0, sim=1).	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=11).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; John Rave: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Isbel: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3	KC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi	0 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 12 outs	1
WAS	Cade Cavalli	1 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	1

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi (Starter)	12 / 15	2.25 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 3	1.74	5 / 7	5.17	venue away: 6.1 vs 3 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.09 (strong) · 10 prior appearances this season
LAA	Ryan Watson (Setup Man)	3 / 1	0 / 108 (-108.00)	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 2	0 / 0	0.27	2 / 0	0.95
WAS	Cade Cavalli (Starter)	18 / 17	3 / 1.59	2 / 1	3 / 3	1 / 1	2 / 1	1.53	9 / 5	8.28	venue home: 3.27 vs 2.94 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (weak) · 30 prior appearances this season
WAS	Erik Tolman (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 20.25 (-11.25)	1 / 3	1 / 4	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.49	0 / 0	1.62
WAS	Clayton Beeter (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.61	1 / 0	0.97

Deep slate report — 20260911

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

BAL@TORMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHW@STLHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CIN@MILHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CLE@MINMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

COL@DETHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

HOU@TBHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

KC@BOSMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAA@WASHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAD@MIAHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYM@NYYHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Zach Neto (SS)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 2	-1.73	0.311 average	no signal
Wade Meckler (LF)	LAA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.315 average	no signal
Andrés Chaparro (DH)	WAS	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.342 elite	bad day
James Wood (RF)	WAS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.93	0.415 elite	bad day
Christian Moore (2B)	LAA	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.245 weak	good day
CJ Abrams (SS)	WAS	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.327 above average	projection too low
Brady House (3B)	WAS	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.66	0.335 above average	projection too low
Jorbit Vivas (2B)	WAS	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.64	0.3 below average	good day
Mike Trout (CF)	LAA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.6	0.375 elite	projection too low
Josh Lowe (RF)	LAA	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
Adam Frazier (DH)	LAA	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.256 weak	—
Denzer Guzman (3B)	LAA	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.27 weak	—
Yohandy Morales (1B)	WAS	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.329 above average	—
Harry Ford (C)	WAS	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.289 below average	—
Jacob Young (CF)	WAS	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.316 average	—
Vaughn Grissom (1B)	LAA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.45	0.312 average	—
Dylan Crews (LF)	WAS	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.312 average	—
Moisés Ballesteros (C)	LAA	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.291 below average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.213	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.512	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.089	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.366	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.63-6.06	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.576	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.63-6.06	5-6	-0.423	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=5).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4; Mike Trout: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=11).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrés Chaparro: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Yohandy Morales: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brady House: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jorbit Vivas: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2; Jacob Young: 2B current=0 box=1	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAD	Blake Snell	2 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 17 outs	-1
MIA	Ryan Gusto	1 ER / 13 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	1

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAD	Blake Snell (Starter)	17 / 17	1.59 / 3.18	1 / 2	4 / 4	0 / 1	2 / 1	2.42	8 / 6	7.42	venue away: 1.64 vs 2.14 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.94 (average) · 6 prior appearances this season
LAD	Brock Stewart (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	0 / 6.75 (-6.75)	0 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.52	1 / 0	0.74
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.39	1 / 1	1.28
MIA	Ryan Gusto (Starter)	18 / 13	3 / 2.08	2 / 1	5 / 2	0 / 1	3 / 2	1.56	3 / 5	3.62	venue home: 4.38 vs 4.15 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (strong) · 20 prior appearances this season
MIA	Victor Vodnik (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	40.5 / 0 (+40.50)	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.52	1 / 0	0.74

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Kyle Tucker (RF)	LAD	3 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	5 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2.16	0.326 above average	projection too low
Otto Lopez (SS)	MIA	5 / 4	4 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.41	0.326 above average	projection too low
Heriberto Hernández (LF)	MIA	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.357 elite	bad day
Jakob Marsee (CF)	MIA	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	4 / 1	-0.8	0.311 average	no signal
Javier Sanoja (3B)	MIA	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.78	0.292 below average	good day
Kyle Stowers (1B)	MIA	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 2	0.66	0.33 above average	projection too low
Teoscar Hernández (LF)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.333 above average	—
Enrique Hernández (1B)	LAD	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.275 weak	—
Alex Freeland (2B)	LAD	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.287 below average	—
Will Smith (C)	LAD	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.382 elite	—
Agustín Ramírez (C)	MIA	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.31	0.272 weak	—
Josue De Paula (DH)	LAD	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	—	—
Mookie Betts (SS)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.332 above average	—
Tommy Edman (CF)	LAD	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	-0.12	0.313 average	—
Max Muncy (3B)	LAD	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.01	0.349 elite	—
Jared Serna (2B)	MIA	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.375 elite	—
Griffin Conine (DH)	MIA	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.367 elite	—
Esteury Ruiz (RF)	MIA	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.289 below average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.141	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.747	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.017	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.212	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.89-3	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-4	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result