Deep slate report 20260905

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260905.json	376581
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260905.json	241224
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and official starter comparisons	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260905.json	2499160
detailed report	loaded	full game and simulation rendering	/app/output/reports/detailed_20260905.html	355886
ultra detailed player audit	loaded	player-level prediction trace	/app/output/reports/20260905_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html	30881727
structural audit	loaded	all invariant findings	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260905.html	1848251
integrity revision audit	missing	post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260905_integrity_revision.html	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 3 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	ATL@PHI, LAA@PIT, WAS@LAD	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	pipeline_stages	An intermediate stage materially degraded winner direction historical_ml → variance_applied changed winner accuracy by -0.2000 (-3 hits)	NYY@SD, SF@NYM, TB@TEX	Do thisList the exact games whose winner flipped at this stage, and keep both the before-stage and after-stage picks in the trace. Don't concludeEven if a later stage recovers the pick, this unstable step is still a risk; do not treat it as harmless.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0106/0.0203/0.0176	ARI@HOU, ATL@PHI, BOS@BAL, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, SF@NYM, STL@COL, TB@TEX, TOR@KC, WAS@LAD	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
MEDIUM	calibration	Most high-raw picks lost before/after shrinkage 1/3 games with raw pick probability ≥0.65 won	CHC@MIA, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN	Do thisTrack how often high-raw-probability picks lose across multiple slates, and keep the raw to calibrated to published lineage. Don't concludeThis one slate is not enough to justify a new per-bucket shrinkage rule.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 15/15 games structurally audited	ARI@HOU, ATL@PHI, BOS@BAL, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, SF@NYM, STL@COL, TB@TEX, TOR@KC, WAS@LAD	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	ARI@HOU, ATL@PHI, BOS@BAL, CHC@MIA, DET@CLE, LAA@PIT, MIL@CIN, MIN@CHW, NYY@SD, OAK@SEA, SF@NYM, STL@COL, TB@TEX, TOR@KC, WAS@LAD	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	9 consecutive · 9 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 9 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	9 consecutive · 9 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 9 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	1	3/9	yes	param
pipeline_winner_instability	1	4/9	yes	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	0	3/9	no	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	9	9/9	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	0	5/9	no	param
weak_run_model_signal	9	9/9	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	regressing	[0.4667, 0.9412, 0.5, 0.6667, 0.4667, 0.3333, 0.5556, 0.625, 0.5333]
weighted_calibration_error	improving	[0.2179, 0.3961, 0.0693, 0.1661, 0.2476, 0.21, 0.1474, 0.1316, 0.1]
margin_bias	improving	[-1.333, -1.882, -2.786, -3.5, -2.533, -3.067, -1.778, -0.688, -1.467]
team_run_error_on_losses	improving	[5.0, 3.0, 7.0, 8.25, 7.125, 6.4, 6.75, 6.0, 5.286]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	8/15	53.3%	1.873	2.562	3.058
variance_applied	5/15	33.3%	1.833	2.467	3
enhanced_prediction	8/15	53.3%	1.967	3.133	3.267
embedded_savant_run_environment	8/15	53.3%	2	3.2	3.333
fundamental_edge_target_review	8/15	53.3%	2	3.2	3.333
capped_target	8/15	53.3%	2	3.2	3.333
simulation_result	8/15	53.3%	2	3.2	3.333
published_final	8/15	53.3%	2	3.2	3.333

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.2	-3	-0.0396	-0.0583	MIL@CIN: MIL → TIE; NYY@SD: NYY → TIE; SF@NYM: SF → TIE; TB@TEX: TB → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.2	3	0.1334	0.2667	ATL@PHI: PHI → ATL; CHC@MIA: MIA → CHC; MIL@CIN: TIE → MIL; NYY@SD: TIE → NYY; SF@NYM: TIE → NYM; TB@TEX: TIE → TB; TOR@KC: KC → TOR
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	0.0333	0.0666
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
ARI@HOU	hit	0.5085	0.5083	0.5083	0.5463	0.5171	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
ATL@PHI	miss	0.5028	0.505	0.505	0.5447	0.538	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
BOS@BAL	hit	0.5052	0.5051	0.5051	0.5447	0.5323	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHC@MIA	hit	0.7723	0.7404	0.7404	0.7395	0.7395	score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin
DET@CLE	miss	0.568	0.5663	0.5663	0.5753	0.5544	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAA@PIT	miss	0.67	0.6591	0.6591	0.6621	0.6357	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
MIL@CIN	miss	0.7085	0.6861	0.6861	0.7124	0.54	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIN@CHW	hit	0.5085	0.5083	0.5083	0.5463	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYY@SD	hit	0.551	0.5499	0.5499	0.5671	0.5485	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
OAK@SEA	miss	0.5085	0.5083	0.5083	0.5463	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SF@NYM	miss	0.5016	0.505	0.505	0.5447	0.5236	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
STL@COL	miss	0.5085	0.5083	0.5083	0.5463	0.5092	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
TB@TEX	hit	0.5085	0.5083	0.5083	0.5463	0.5335	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TOR@KC	hit	0.6256	0.6202	0.6202	0.6426	0.57	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
WAS@LAD	hit	0.6275	0.6219	0.6219	0.6032	0.5734	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
30	2	6	2	20	-1.17	-0.07

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12
20260903	9	0.556	0.24	-0.83	4	6
20260902	15	0.333	0.72	0.30	7	6
20260901	15	0.467	1.48	1.07	9	3
20260831	12	0.667	0.83	0.08	2	7
20260830	14	0.500	-0.36	-0.29	3	7
20260829	17	0.941	—	—
20260828	15	0.467	—	—

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
ARI@HOU	1	1	0
ATL@PHI	1	2	-1
BOS@BAL	1	5	-4
CHC@MIA	3	1	2
DET@CLE	1	6	-5
LAA@PIT	2	5	-3
MIL@CIN	3	2	1
MIN@CHW	1	2	-1
NYY@SD	1	4	-3
OAK@SEA	2	4	-2
SF@NYM	1	4	-3
STL@COL	1	3	-2
TB@TEX	1	3	-2
TOR@KC	2	1	1
WAS@LAD	1	1	0

ARI@HOUHIT

Predicted: ARI 5-4 (conf -0.03, toss_up)Actual: ARI 4-3Brier 0.233total bias +2

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.03 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.033, recent +0.706, pitcher +0.014, composite +0.010
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.483
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Ethan Pecko (HOU) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	4 ER / 19 outs	3 ER / 19 outs	-1
HOU	Ethan Pecko	4 ER / 12 outs	1 ER / 13 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.029 / away×1.015; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Cam Smith (HOU RF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Yordan Alvarez (HOU DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Geraldo Perdomo (ARI SS): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Tim Tawa (ARI 1B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Ketel Marte (ARI 2B): 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.62]

Starter miss: Ethan Pecko (HOU) posted 2.08 ERA vs projected 9.00 (1 ER in 13 outs). Thin prior record (3 prior appearances this season): high projection uncertainty.

What to do: Reduce game confidence for starters the feed has little on (scale by prior appearances); prefer priors and validate any run-param change in shadow.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) at a projected 5.68 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Cam Smith: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error
Taylor Trammell: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.285, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Ethan Pecko (HOU) threw 13 outs, 1 ER = 2.08 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-6.92 ERA error) only 3 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 13 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tim Tawa: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, below average - a good day, not a model error
Ketel Marte: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.349, elite - real projection error
Lars Nootbaar: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.346, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Ethan Pecko (Starter)	13 / 12	2.08 / 9 (-6.92)	1 / 4	5 / 6	0 / 1	1 / 2	2 / 5	venue home: 4.91 vs 6.75 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · thin sample: 3 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
HOU	AJ Blubaugh (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	5 / 4	5.4 / 6.75	1 / 1	2 / 2	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	5 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0
HOU	Josh Hader (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
HOU	Cam Smith (RF)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.56	0.319 average	no signal
HOU	Yordan Alvarez (DH)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	-1.07	0.45 elite	bad day
ARI	Geraldo Perdomo (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.8	0.327 above average	bad day
ARI	Tim Tawa (1B)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.8	0.304 below average	good day
ARI	Ketel Marte (2B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.62	0.349 elite	projection too low
ARI	Gabriel Moreno (C)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.48	0.366 elite	—
ARI	Lars Nootbaar (DH)	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.47	0.346 elite	—
ARI	Max Kepler (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.27 weak	—
HOU	Jeremy Peña (SS)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.326 above average	—
HOU	Christian Walker (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.3 below average	—
HOU	Taylor Trammell (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.285 below average	—
HOU	Isaac Paredes (3B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.17	0.32 average	—
HOU	Yainer Diaz (C)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.16	0.304 below average	—
ARI	Ryan Waldschmidt (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.304 below average	—
ARI	Corbin Carroll (RF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.342 elite	—
HOU	Jose Altuve (2B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.272 weak	—
ARI	Nolan Arenado (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
HOU	Daulton Varsho (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.292 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.033	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.706	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.014	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.01	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.44-3.52	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.517	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.44-3.52	5-4	-0.914	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
HOU	Jeremy Peña	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 2.57
ARI	Lars Nootbaar	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 2.268
HOU	Daulton Varsho	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 2.202
HOU	Taylor Trammell	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.779
ARI	Gabriel Moreno	batter / C	worse	predicted_2B 1.739
ARI	Max Kepler	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.72
HOU	Yordan Alvarez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H -1.21
ARI	Corbin Carroll	batter / RF	boosted	predicted_SO 1.043

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=2, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Geraldo Perdomo: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Lars Nootbaar: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Tim Tawa: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Jose Altuve: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=1, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=2; Christian Walker: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=4	HOU
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

ATL@PHIMISS

Predicted: ATL 5-4 (conf -0.08, lean)Actual: PHI 2-4Brier 0.289total bias +3

Root cause: Several errors of similar size

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.545, recent -0.510, pitcher +0.002, composite -0.603
confidence pipeline reached 0.505 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.462
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (9 vs 6)
ATL offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ATL	Martín Pérez	2 ER / 17 outs	4 ER / 11 outs	2
PHI	Zack Wheeler	3 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.001 / away×0.999; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Derek Hill (PHI CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Austin Riley (ATL 3B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Kyle Schwarber (PHI DH): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Martín Pérez (ATL) posted 9.82 ERA vs projected 3.18 (4 ER in 11 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (4.32 ERA there vs 2.19 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Martín Pérez (ATL) threw 11 outs, 4 ER = 9.82 ERA against a projected 3.18 ERA (6.64 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Derek Hill: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.282, weak - a good day, not a model error
Kyle Schwarber: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.365, elite - real projection error
Trea Turner: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.294, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Zack Wheeler (PHI) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (-3.56 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Austin Riley: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.298, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
ATL	Martín Pérez (Starter)	11 / 17	9.82 / 3.18 (+6.64)	4 / 2	7 / 4	1 / 1	4 / 3	3 / 3	venue away: 4.32 vs 2.19 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
PHI	Zack Wheeler (Starter)	18 / 16	1.5 / 5.06 (-3.56)	1 / 3	3 / 5	1 / 0	2 / 4	9 / 3	venue home: 3.23 vs 3.38 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (strong) · 23 prior appearances this season
PHI	Jhoan Duran (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan (Setup Man)	3 / 5	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
PHI	Derek Hill (CF)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.56	0.282 weak	good day
ATL	Austin Riley (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.298 below average	good day
PHI	Kyle Schwarber (DH)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.8	0.365 elite	projection too low
ATL	Matt Olson (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.78	0.355 elite	bad day
ATL	Mauricio Dubón (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.302 below average	—
ATL	Ozzie Albies (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.284 below average	—
ATL	Michael Harris II (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.341 elite	—
PHI	Alec Bohm (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.323 above average	—
PHI	Edmundo Sosa (LF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.333 above average	—
PHI	Bryson Stott (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
PHI	Trea Turner (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.294 below average	—
PHI	Bryce Harper (RF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.17	0.393 elite	—
PHI	Luis Arraez (2B)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.307 average	—
ATL	Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.362 elite	—
ATL	Drake Baldwin (C)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.367 elite	—
ATL	Dominic Smith (DH)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.299 below average	—
PHI	J.T. Realmuto (C)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.323 above average	—
ATL	Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.216 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.545	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.51	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.002	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.603	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.11-5.4	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.538	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.11-5.4	4-5	0.287	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ATL	Drake Baldwin	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.34
PHI	J.T. Realmuto	batter / C	better	predicted_H 2.17
PHI	Edmundo Sosa	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 2.071
ATL	Dominic Smith	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 1.7
PHI	Trea Turner	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 1.57
PHI	Kyle Schwarber	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO -1.496
ATL	Michael Harris II	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 1.41
ATL	Mauricio Dubón	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.36

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=3).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dominic Smith: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=3).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	PHI
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BOS@BALHIT

Predicted: BOS 5-4 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: BOS 5-0Brier 0.219total bias +4

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.355, recent +0.254, pitcher +0.005, composite -0.300
confidence pipeline reached 0.505 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.468
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (9 vs 5)
BAL offense over-projected by 4
Sonny Gray (BOS) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BOS	Sonny Gray	3 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-3
BAL	Chris Bassitt	3 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 17 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.966 / away×0.961; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Pete Alonso (BAL 1B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS 2B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Roman Anthony (BOS DH): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Mickey Gasper (BOS 1B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.74]
Wilyer Abreu (BOS RF): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.64]

Starter miss: Sonny Gray (BOS) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 4.50 (0 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Sonny Gray (BOS) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-4.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Gunnar Henderson: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Colton Cowser: 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - real projection error
Heston Kjerstad: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.221, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Chris Bassitt (BAL) threw 17 outs, 3 ER = 4.76 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-0.64 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 1 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Trevor Story: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.63 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.251, weak - a good day, not a model error
Nick Sogard: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
BOS	Sonny Gray (Starter)	21 / 18	0 / 4.5 (-4.50)	0 / 3	3 / 4	0 / 1	3 / 2	7 / 6	venue away: 2.87 vs 2.77 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (average) · 25 prior appearances this season
BAL	Chris Bassitt (Starter)	17 / 15	4.76 / 5.4	3 / 3	5 / 6	0 / 1	4 / 3	6 / 5	venue home: 3.29 vs 6.43 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (average) · 16 prior appearances this season
BAL	Rico Garcia (Setup Man)	1 / 4	0 / 6.75 (-6.75)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
BAL	Pete Alonso (1B)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.392 elite	bad day
BOS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1.11	0.307 average	no signal
BOS	Roman Anthony (DH)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.8	0.361 elite	bad day
BOS	Mickey Gasper (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	-0.74	0.372 elite	bad day
BOS	Wilyer Abreu (RF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.347 elite	bad day
BAL	Gunnar Henderson (SS)	2 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.64	0.316 average	no signal
BAL	Dylan Beavers (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.304 below average	projection too high
BAL	Colton Cowser (CF)	1 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.321 above average	projection too low
BOS	Trevor Story (SS)	5 / 5	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.63	0.251 weak	good day
BOS	Nick Sogard (3B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.47	0.327 above average	—
BAL	Jackson Holliday (DH)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.303 below average	—
BAL	Blaze Alexander (2B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.356 elite	—
BAL	Heston Kjerstad (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.221 weak	—
BAL	Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.343 elite	—
BOS	Jarren Duran (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.296 below average	—
BOS	Eli White (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.271 weak	—
BOS	Connor Wong (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.286 below average	—
BAL	Samuel Basallo (C)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.322 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.355	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.254	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.005	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.3	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.57-3.38	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.532	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.57-3.38	5-3	0.813	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	5-4	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BAL	Jackson Holliday	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.671
BOS	Wilyer Abreu	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 2.67
BOS	Trevor Story	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -2.63
BOS	Sonny Gray	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
BAL	Chris Bassitt	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_H 2
BAL	Colton Cowser	batter / CF	worse	predicted_H 1.71
BOS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.581
BOS	Eli White	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Holliday: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Heston Kjerstad: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=3 box=4; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: R current=0 box=1	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=2; Trevor Story: AB current=5 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2	BOS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHC@MIAHIT

Predicted: CHC 6-3 (conf -0.48, strong)Actual: CHC 6-5Brier 0.068total bias -2

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.48 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.799, recent -0.770, pitcher +0.086, composite -0.984
confidence pipeline reached 0.740 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.260
score-volatility actions: high_total_environment_lift, supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHC	Javier Assad	2 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 14 outs	1
MIA	Ryan Gusto	6 ER / 13 outs	5 ER / 14 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.024 / away×0.938; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Griffin Conine (MIA 1B): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.92]
Heriberto Hernández (MIA LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Michael Conforto (CHC DH): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Kyle Stowers (MIA DH): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Alex Bregman (CHC 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Javier Assad (CHC) threw 14 outs, 3 ER = 5.79 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (2.19 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 7 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 5 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Griffin Conine: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.92 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.373, elite - real projection error
Kyle Stowers: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
Otto Lopez: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Ryan Gusto (MIA) threw 14 outs, 5 ER = 9.64 ERA against a projected 12.46 ERA (-2.82 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 7 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 13 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Michael Conforto: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Nico Hoerner: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - real projection error
Miguel Amaya: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
CHC	Javier Assad (Starter)	14 / 15	5.79 / 3.6	3 / 2	3 / 3	0 / 0	5 / 2	3 / 4	venue away: 4.45 vs 1.66 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 22 prior appearances this season
CHC	Trent Thornton (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	13.5 / 9 (+4.50)	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	5 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1
MIA	Ryan Gusto (Starter)	14 / 13	9.64 / 12.46	5 / 6	10 / 5	1 / 2	2 / 1	5 / 6	venue home: 3.62 vs 4.15 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.94 (strong) · 19 prior appearances this season
MIA	Calvin Faucher (Closer)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0
MIA	Tyler Zuber (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1
MIA	Victor Vodnik (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIA	Griffin Conine (1B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 1	1.92	0.373 elite	projection too low
MIA	Heriberto Hernández (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.353 elite	bad day
CHC	Michael Conforto (DH)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.333 above average	projection too low
MIA	Kyle Stowers (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 2	1.09	0.335 above average	projection too low
CHC	Alex Bregman (3B)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-1.07	0.318 average	no signal
CHC	Nico Hoerner (SS)	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.94	0.324 above average	projection too low
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.93	0.369 elite	bad day
CHC	Miguel Amaya (C)	3 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.289 below average	good day
MIA	Otto Lopez (SS)	3 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.324 above average	projection too low
CHC	Ian Happ (LF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.47	0.313 average	—
CHC	Pedro Ramirez (2B)	5 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.293 below average	—
MIA	Jakob Marsee (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.305 average	—
MIA	Joe Mack (C)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.289 below average	—
MIA	Graham Pauley (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.225 weak	—
MIA	Javier Sanoja (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.31	0.287 below average	—
CHC	Michael Busch (1B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.328 above average	—
CHC	Seiya Suzuki (RF)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.02	0.339 above average	—
MIA	Owen Caissie (RF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.297 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.799	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.77	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.086	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.984	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.67-4.91	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-3	0.74	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.67-4.91	4-5	0.233	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	6-3	4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-3	6-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-3	6-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-3	6-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-3	6-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHC	Ian Happ	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.52
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -2.04
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.86
MIA	Joe Mack	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 1.81
CHC	Michael Busch	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.54
CHC	Michael Conforto	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
MIA	Owen Caissie	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO -1.173
MIA	Jakob Marsee	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.136

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Owen Caissie: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

DET@CLEMISS

Predicted: CLE 3-4 (conf +0.11, moderate)Actual: DET 6-0Brier 0.307total bias +1

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.026, recent +0.706, pitcher -0.050, composite +0.262
confidence pipeline reached 0.566 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.554
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

DET offense under-projected by 3
CLE offense over-projected by 4
committed to CLE at 0.11 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
DET	Framber Valdez	2 ER / 16 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-2
CLE	Parker Messick	3 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.926 / away×0.976; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Riley Greene (DET LF): 4-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.94]
Spencer Torkelson (DET 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
John Peck (DET SS): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Ben Malgeri (DET RF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
José Ramírez (CLE 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]

Starter miss: Framber Valdez (DET) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 3.38 (0 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Framber Valdez (DET) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (-3.38 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 3 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Parker Messick (CLE) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 11 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Riley Greene: 4-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI [+2.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.367, elite - real projection error
John Peck: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.27 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.379, elite - real projection error
Ben Malgeri: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
DET	Framber Valdez (Starter)	21 / 16	0 / 3.38 (-3.38)	0 / 2	3 / 4	0 / 0	1 / 2	3 / 4	venue away: 4.38 vs 4.33 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
DET	Kyle Finnegan (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1
CLE	Parker Messick (Starter)	18 / 18	4.5 / 4.5	3 / 3	7 / 5	2 / 0	2 / 2	12 / 6	venue home: 2.72 vs 2.25 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
DET	Riley Greene (LF)	5 / 4	4 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	4 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2.94	0.367 elite	projection too low
DET	Spencer Torkelson (1B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.31 average	no signal
DET	John Peck (SS)	3 / 4	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.27	0.379 elite	projection too low
DET	Ben Malgeri (RF)	5 / 3	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.25	0.328 above average	projection too low
CLE	José Ramírez (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-1.11	0.335 above average	bad day
CLE	Angel Martínez (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.93	0.304 below average	projection too high
CLE	Steven Kwan (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.8	0.321 above average	bad day
DET	Javier Báez (2B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.258 weak	projection too high
DET	Dillon Dingler (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.344 elite	—
CLE	Jo Adell (DH)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.325 above average	—
CLE	Brayan Rocchio (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
CLE	David Fry (1B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.26 weak	—
DET	Hao-Yu Lee (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 1	0.19	0.301 below average	—
DET	Gleyber Torres (DH)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.327 above average	—
CLE	Austin Hedges (C)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.275 weak	—
DET	Zach McKinstry (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
CLE	Angel Genao (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.297 below average	—
CLE	Petey Halpin (CF)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.286 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.026	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.706	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.05	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.262	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.89-5.45	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.554	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.89-5.45	4-5	-0.565	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Petey Halpin	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 2.426
CLE	Angel Martínez	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 2.121
CLE	Jo Adell	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 2.094
CLE	Parker Messick	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
CLE	Cade Smith	pitcher / Closer	worse	predicted_SO -2
DET	Javier Báez	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_BB 1.898
DET	Hao-Yu Lee	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_2B 1.856
DET	Zach McKinstry	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.431

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; SO: current=7, sim=6).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; David Fry: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Angel Genao: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Steven Kwan: R current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0; Petey Halpin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Ben Malgeri: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Báez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; John Peck: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	DET
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAA@PITMISS

Predicted: PIT 4-6 (conf +0.27, strong)Actual: LAA 6-1Brier 0.404total bias +3

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.27 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias +3
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.909, recent +1.162, pitcher +0.153, composite +1.488
confidence pipeline reached 0.659 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.636
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 3 (10 vs 7)
PIT offense over-projected by 5
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) allowed 6 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 6)
committed to PIT at 0.27 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi	6 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-6
PIT	Braxton Ashcraft	3 ER / 19 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.075 / away×0.921; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Bryan Reynolds (PIT LF): 3-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Josh Lowe (LAA RF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Adam Frazier (LAA 2B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Wade Meckler (LAA LF): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.76]

Starter miss: Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 11.57 (0 ER in 18 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (7.56 ERA there vs 3.00 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 11.57 ERA (-11.57 ERA error) only 9 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 9 hits (-5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Bryan Reynolds: 3-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.36, elite - real projection error
Nick Gonzales: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 4.26 ERA (1.14 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 12 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 7 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Josh Lowe: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error
Adam Frazier: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.258, weak - a good day, not a model error
Wade Meckler: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.76 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi (Starter)	18 / 14	0 / 11.57 (-11.57)	0 / 6	5 / 6	0 / 3	3 / 2	6 / 5	venue away: 7.56 vs 3 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.07 (strong) · 9 prior appearances this season
LAA	José Fermin (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1
LAA	Luke Murphy (Middle Reliever)	3 / 1	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
PIT	Braxton Ashcraft (Starter)	15 / 19	5.4 / 4.26	3 / 3	7 / 5	1 / 0	0 / 0	9 / 7	venue home: 3.59 vs 3.7 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.92 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
PIT	Bryan Reynolds (LF)	3 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.56	0.36 elite	projection too low
LAA	Josh Lowe (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.29 below average	good day
LAA	Adam Frazier (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.258 weak	good day
LAA	Wade Meckler (LF)	5 / 3	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.76	0.312 average	no signal
LAA	Christian Moore (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.238 weak	—
LAA	Denzer Guzman (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.266 weak	—
PIT	Esmerlyn Valdez (RF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.331 above average	—
PIT	Konnor Griffin (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.298 below average	—
PIT	Jake Mangum (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.283 weak	—
PIT	Oneil Cruz (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.352 elite	—
LAA	Zach Neto (SS)	5 / 5	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.32	0.305 average	—
LAA	Vaughn Grissom (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.31	0.316 average	—
PIT	Nick Gonzales (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.327 above average	—
PIT	Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.15	0.339 above average	—
LAA	Mike Trout (CF)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.376 elite	—
PIT	Nick Yorke (1B)	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.289 below average	—
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.291 below average	—
PIT	Jared Triolo (3B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.289 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.909	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.162	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.153	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.488	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.5-6.1	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	0.636	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.5-6.1	4-6	0.395	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	4-6	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	4-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_SO 3
LAA	Denzer Guzman	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_2B 1.864
PIT	Oneil Cruz	batter / DH	better	predicted_SO -1.538
PIT	Bryan Reynolds	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.45
PIT	Rafael Flores Jr.	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.41
LAA	Zach Neto	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO -1.382
LAA	Wade Meckler	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.264
LAA	Adam Frazier	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.181

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7).	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=0).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adam Frazier: H current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=8).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jared Triolo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Yorke: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIL@CINMISS

Predicted: MIL 8-5 (conf -0.08, lean)Actual: CIN 3-5Brier 0.292total bias +5

Root cause: Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.666, recent -0.830, pitcher -0.062, composite -1.801
confidence pipeline reached 0.686 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.460
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (13 vs 8)
MIL offense over-projected by 5

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIL	Dustin May	3 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 11 outs	-1
CIN	Andrew Abbott	2 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 12 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.034 / away×1.097; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jackson Chourio (MIL LF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 2.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -2.04]
Matt McLain (CIN 2B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Gary Sánchez (MIL C): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Sal Stewart (CIN 1B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Eugenio Suárez (CIN 3B): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Dustin May (MIL) threw 11 outs, 2 ER = 4.91 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-0.49 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 7 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 12 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Matt McLain: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Sal Stewart: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.351, elite - real projection error
Eugenio Suárez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Andrew Abbott (CIN) threw 12 outs, 1 ER = 2.25 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-1.35 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Gary Sánchez: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.344, elite - real projection error
David Hamilton: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error
Andrew Vaughn: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIL	Dustin May (Starter)	11 / 15	4.91 / 5.4	2 / 3	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	5 / 7	venue away: 5.55 vs 4.16 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (weak) · 26 prior appearances this season
MIL	Aaron Ashby (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
MIL	DL Hall (Reliever)	4 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 2
CIN	Andrew Abbott (Starter)	12 / 15	2.25 / 3.6	1 / 2	3 / 5	1 / 0	0 / 0	5 / 4	venue home: 4.78 vs 4.23 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.1 (strong) · 28 prior appearances this season
CIN	Brock Burke (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 6	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 4
CIN	Emilio Pagán (Closer)	3 / 2	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 2	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1
CIN	Tony Santillan (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 0	9 / n/a	1 / 4	3 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIL	Jackson Chourio (LF)	4 / 5	1 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-2.04	0.334 above average	bad day
CIN	Matt McLain (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.307 average	no signal
MIL	Gary Sánchez (C)	3 / 3	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1.25	0.344 elite	projection too low
CIN	Sal Stewart (1B)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.351 elite	projection too low
CIN	Eugenio Suárez (3B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.29 below average	good day
CIN	Elly De La Cruz (SS)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 2	0.76	0.364 elite	projection too low
CIN	Tyler Stephenson (DH)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.6	0.335 above average	projection too low
MIL	Joey Ortiz (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.295 below average	—
MIL	David Hamilton (2B)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.275 weak	—
MIL	Garrett Mitchell (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.346 elite	—
CIN	Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.46	0.275 weak	—
MIL	Andrew Vaughn (1B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.33	0.336 above average	—
CIN	JJ Bleday (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.349 elite	—
MIL	William Contreras (DH)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.29	0.333 above average	—
MIL	Luis Lara (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.313 average	—
MIL	Cooper Pratt (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.313 average	—
CIN	Jose Trevino (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.222 weak	—
CIN	Carlos Jorge (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0	0.181 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.666	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.83	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.062	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.801	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.44-3.8	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	8-5	0.54	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.44-3.8	4-4	-0.641	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	8-5	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-5	8-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-5	8-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-5	8-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-5	8-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	Andrew Vaughn	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 3.079
MIL	DL Hall	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_IP 2.9
MIL	Luis Lara	batter / RF	better	predicted_AB 2.732
CIN	Carlos Jorge	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 2.5
MIL	Jackson Chourio	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.44
MIL	William Contreras	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB 2.132
MIL	David Hamilton	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB 1.96
MIL	Joey Ortiz	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.95

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=43; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=13).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Héctor Rodríguez: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carlos Jorge: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=46; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=5; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; SO: current=8, sim=11).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis Lara: AB current=3 box=6, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=6, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=6, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; David Hamilton: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIN@CHWHIT

Predicted: MIN 6-5 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: MIN 6-4Brier 0.221total bias +1

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 1; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.462, recent +0.298, pitcher -0.040, composite +0.061
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIN	Taj Bradley	5 ER / 17 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	-1
CHW	Anthony Kay	4 ER / 16 outs	5 ER / 13 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.028 / away×1.067; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Gabriel Gonzalez (MIN LF): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Braden Montgomery (CHW RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Kaelen Culpepper (MIN SS): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Chase Meidroth (CHW 2B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.64]
Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.6]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Taj Bradley (MIN) threw 15 outs, 4 ER = 7.2 ERA against a projected 7.94 ERA (-0.74 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 5 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Munetaka Murakami: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.35, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Anthony Kay (CHW) at a projected 6.75 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Kaelen Culpepper: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.32, average - a good day, not a model error
Josh Bell: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - a good day, not a model error
Brooks Lee: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.274, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIN	Taj Bradley (Starter)	15 / 17	7.2 / 7.94	4 / 5	4 / 7	2 / 1	2 / 2	6 / 3	venue away: 4.35 vs 3.3 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
MIN	A.J. Minter (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1
MIN	Jeff Hoffman (Setup Man)	4 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIN	Gabriel Gonzalez (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.279 weak	projection too high
CHW	Braden Montgomery (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.329 above average	bad day
MIN	Kaelen Culpepper (SS)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.32 average	no signal
CHW	Chase Meidroth (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.64	0.292 below average	projection too high
CHW	Munetaka Murakami (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 2	0.6	0.35 elite	projection too low
MIN	Ryan Kreidler (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.288 below average	—
CHW	Andrew Benintendi (DH)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.31 average	—
MIN	Josh Bell (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.45	0.333 above average	—
MIN	Ryan Jeffers (C)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.356 elite	—
CHW	Miguel Vargas (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.386 elite	—
MIN	Brooks Lee (3B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.274 weak	—
CHW	Sam Antonacci (LF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0.19	0.342 elite	—
MIN	Luke Keaschall (RF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.17	0.315 average	—
MIN	Royce Lewis (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.316 average	—
MIN	Kody Clemens (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.341 elite	—
CHW	Colson Montgomery (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.307 average	—
CHW	Tristan Peters (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.319 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.462	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.298	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.04	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.061	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.68-4.01	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.68-4.01	5-4	0.325	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	6-5	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIN	Ryan Jeffers	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 3.311
CHW	Andrew Benintendi	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H 2.41
MIN	Kaelen Culpepper	batter / SS	better	predicted_2B 1.826
CHW	Tristan Peters	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 1.71
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / LF	boosted	predicted_AB 1.533
MIN	Luke Keaschall	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.527
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / SS	better	predicted_SO -1.436
MIN	Royce Lewis	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.41

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=8).	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; RBI: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Chase Meidroth: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Rogers: BB current=0 box=1	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kaelen Culpepper: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Gabriel Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Ryan Kreidler: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: RBI current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYY@SDHIT

Predicted: NYY 4-3 (conf -0.10, lean)Actual: NYY 5-1Brier 0.204total bias +1

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.10 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.736, recent -0.278, pitcher -0.030, composite -0.720
confidence pipeline reached 0.550 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.451
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYY	Carlos Rodón	0 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	1
SD	Robbie Ray	3 ER / 17 outs	5 ER / 7 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.003 / away×1.032; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Manny Machado (SD 3B): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD RF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Spencer Jones (NYY CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Luis Campusano (SD DH): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]

Starter miss: Robbie Ray (SD) posted 19.29 ERA vs projected 4.76 (5 ER in 7 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Carlos Rodón (NYY) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (1.8 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 2 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Manny Machado: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Robbie Ray (SD) threw 7 outs, 5 ER = 19.29 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (14.53 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Spencer Jones: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error
Ben Rice: 3-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.34 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.378, elite - a good day, not a model error
Paul Goldschmidt: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
NYY	Carlos Rodón (Starter)	15 / 17	1.8 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 3	1 / 0	3 / 1	7 / 5	venue away: 3.41 vs 2.92 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 12 prior appearances this season
NYY	Brent Headrick (Setup Man)	4 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1
SD	Robbie Ray (Starter)	7 / 17	19.29 / 4.76 (+14.53)	5 / 3	5 / 5	0 / 1	4 / 5	1 / 4	venue home: 2.72 vs 3.98 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
SD	Manny Machado (3B)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1.26	0.333 above average	projection too low
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-1.07	0.374 elite	bad day
NYY	Spencer Jones (CF)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.329 above average	projection too low
SD	Luis Campusano (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.335 above average	bad day
NYY	Amed Rosario (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.312 average	—
SD	Freddy Fermin (C)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.273 weak	—
SD	Samad Taylor (LF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.309 average	—
NYY	Ben Rice (DH)	3 / 5	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.34	0.378 elite	—
NYY	Cody Bellinger (LF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.342 elite	—
NYY	Paul Goldschmidt (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.313 average	—
SD	Xander Bogaerts (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.321 above average	—
NYY	Heliot Ramos (RF)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.326 above average	—
NYY	José Caballero (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.28 weak	—
NYY	Austin Wells (C)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.291 below average	—
SD	Ty France (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.331 above average	—
SD	Jackson Merrill (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.336 above average	—
NYY	George Lombard Jr. (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.284 below average	—
SD	Jake Cronenworth (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.272 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.736	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.278	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.03	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.72	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.34-3.6	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.549	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.34-3.6	4-4	-0.744	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-3	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYY	Ben Rice	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 3.17
NYY	Austin Wells	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 2.41
NYY	Heliot Ramos	batter / RF	better	predicted_BB 1.75
SD	Jake Cronenworth	batter / 2B	better	predicted_H 1.5
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr.	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.28
NYY	Amed Rosario	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB 1.253
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO -1.029
NYY	Carlos Rodón	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 1

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Amed Rosario: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; José Caballero: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	SD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

OAK@SEAMISS

Predicted: SEA 6-8 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: OAK 6-2Brier 0.281total bias +6

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.478, recent -0.342, pitcher -0.052, composite +0.424
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 6 (14 vs 8)
SEA offense over-projected by 6
Jeffrey Springs (OAK) allowed 5 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 5)
George Kirby (SEA) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (3 vs 6)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
OAK	Jeffrey Springs	5 ER / 12 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-5
SEA	George Kirby	6 ER / 16 outs	3 ER / 20 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.953 / away×1.004; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Max Muncy (OAK DH): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Zack Gelof (OAK 3B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Taylor Ward (SEA RF): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Lawrence Butler (OAK RF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.6]

Starter miss: Jeffrey Springs (OAK) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 11.25 (0 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jeffrey Springs (OAK) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 11.25 ERA (-11.25 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

George Kirby (SEA) threw 20 outs, 3 ER = 4.05 ERA against a projected 10.12 ERA (-6.07 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 9 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Max Muncy: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.293, below average - a good day, not a model error
Lawrence Butler: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - real projection error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
OAK	Jeffrey Springs (Starter)	21 / 12	0 / 11.25 (-11.25)	0 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 1	2 / 3	6 / 6	venue away: 5.37 vs 7.18 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (weak) · 25 prior appearances this season
OAK	Elvis Alvarado (Closer)	3 / 2	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 2
SEA	George Kirby (Starter)	20 / 16	4.05 / 10.12 (-6.07)	3 / 6	7 / 10	1 / 1	1 / 0	5 / 3	venue home: 3.21 vs 5.48 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (weak) · 26 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
OAK	Max Muncy (DH)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.293 below average	good day
OAK	Zack Gelof (3B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.93	0.316 average	no signal
SEA	Taylor Ward (RF)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.333 above average	bad day
OAK	Lawrence Butler (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.324 above average	projection too low
SEA	Julio Rodríguez (CF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.336 above average	—
SEA	Josh Naylor (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.313 average	—
SEA	Randy Arozarena (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.349 elite	—
OAK	Alika Williams (SS)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.245 weak	—
OAK	Jonah Heim (C)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.292 below average	—
SEA	Cole Young (2B)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.316 average	—
OAK	Henry Bolte (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.02	0.311 average	—
OAK	Donovan Walton (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.331 above average	—
SEA	Cal Raleigh (C)	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.01	0.315 average	—
OAK	Jeff McNeil (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.307 average	—
OAK	Denzel Clarke (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.2 weak	—
SEA	Dominic Canzone (DH)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.356 elite	—
SEA	Weston Wilson (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.26 weak	—
SEA	J.P. Crawford (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.327 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.478	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.342	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.052	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.424	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.11-4.8	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-7	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-8	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-8	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-8	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-8	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.11-4.8	4-5	0.304	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	6-7	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-7	6-8	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-8	6-8	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-8	6-8	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-8	6-8	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SEA	Cal Raleigh	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 3.689
OAK	Henry Bolte	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 3.684
SEA	Randy Arozarena	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 3.28
OAK	Jonah Heim	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 2.06
SEA	Taylor Ward	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.054
OAK	Jeff McNeil	batter / 1B	better	predicted_2B 1.837
SEA	Dominic Canzone	batter / DH	worse	predicted_2B 1.815
SEA	Weston Wilson	batter / 3B	better	predicted_BB 1.68

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11; HR: current=1, sim=2).	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=7).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=4, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Dominic Canzone: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Taylor Ward: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Cole Young: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Weston Wilson: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SF@NYMMISS

Predicted: NYM 4-5 (conf +0.05, lean)Actual: SF 9-5Brier 0.274total bias -5

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.05 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.183, recent +0.206, pitcher +0.016, composite +0.368
confidence pipeline reached 0.505 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.524
score-volatility actions: high_total_environment_lift
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 5 (9 vs 14)
SF offense under-projected by 5
Zac Thornton (NYM) allowed 5 more ER than projected (6 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SF	Anthony Molina	2 ER / 9 outs	0 ER / 15 outs	-2
NYM	Zac Thornton	1 ER / 17 outs	6 ER / 15 outs	5

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×0.984; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Christian Koss (SF SS): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.33]
Juan Soto (NYM LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Grant McCray (SF RF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.54]
A.J. Ewing (NYM CF): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Rafael Devers (SF 1B): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]

Starter miss: Zac Thornton (NYM) posted 10.80 ERA vs projected 1.59 (6 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Anthony Molina (SF) threw 15 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 6 ERA (-6 ERA error) only 5 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 7 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

A.J. Ewing: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Jared Young: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error
Brett Baty: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Zac Thornton (NYM) threw 15 outs, 6 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 1.59 ERA (9.21 ERA error) only 11 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 10 hits and 6 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Christian Koss: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI [+2.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.24, weak - a good day, not a model error
Grant McCray: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.54 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error
Rafael Devers: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.34, elite - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
SF	Anthony Molina (Starter)	15 / 9	0 / 6 (-6.00)	0 / 2	1 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 1	6 / 2	opp run factor 1 (weak) · 5 prior appearances this season
SF	Trent Harris (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
SF	Carson Seymour (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1
SF	Jason Foley (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	18 / 9 (+9.00)	2 / 1	2 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0
NYM	Zac Thornton (Starter)	15 / 17	10.8 / 1.59 (+9.21)	6 / 1	7 / 3	4 / 1	1 / 1	6 / 5	venue home: 2.92 vs 2.95 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · 11 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
SF	Christian Koss (SS)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2.33	0.24 weak	good day
NYM	Juan Soto (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-1.73	0.416 elite	bad day
SF	Grant McCray (RF)	4 / 4	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.54	0.325 above average	projection too low
NYM	A.J. Ewing (CF)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1.26	0.317 average	no signal
SF	Rafael Devers (1B)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	3 / 2	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.07	0.34 elite	projection too low
NYM	Jared Young (1B)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.309 average	no signal
SF	Osleivis Basabe (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.283 weak	good day
NYM	Francisco Lindor (SS)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.338 above average	bad day
SF	Turner Hill (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.346 elite	bad day
NYM	Bo Bichette (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.325 above average	bad day
NYM	Brett Baty (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.306 average	no signal
SF	Shay Whitcomb (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.251 weak	—
NYM	Carson Benge (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.336 above average	—
NYM	Francisco Alvarez (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.326 above average	—
NYM	Marcus Semien (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.305 average	—
SF	Andrew Knizner (C)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.271 weak	—
SF	Jonah Cox (CF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 2	0	0.274 weak	—
SF	Bryce Eldridge (DH)	3 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.357 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.183	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.206	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.016	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.368	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.38-4.35	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.524	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.38-4.35	4-4	0.028	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SF	Andrew Knizner	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 2.516
SF	Jonah Cox	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 2.5
SF	Anthony Molina	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_IP -2
NYM	Zac Thornton	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
NYM	Daniel Duarte	pitcher / Setup Man	worse	predicted_SO -2
NYM	Juan Soto	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.9
NYM	Jared Young	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.79
SF	Bryce Eldridge	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -1.69

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (HR: current=1, sim=2).	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=4).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; A.J. Ewing: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Osleivis Basabe: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Turner Hill: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Grant McCray: H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: R current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Shay Whitcomb: SO current=1 box=0	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

STL@COLMISS

Predicted: STL 7-6 (conf -0.02, toss_up)Actual: COL 7-10Brier 0.259total bias -4

Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.02 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.736, recent -0.199, pitcher +0.057, composite -0.509
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.491
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (13 vs 17)
COL offense under-projected by 4

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
STL	Matthew Liberatore	4 ER / 16 outs	5 ER / 13 outs	1
COL	Mason Adams	4 ER / 13 outs	3 ER / 14 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.051 / away×0.994; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Iván Herrera (STL DH): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Hunter Goodman (COL C): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Thomas Saggese (STL SS): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Jordan Walker (STL RF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Connor Norby (COL 3B): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]

Starter miss: Matthew Liberatore (STL) posted 10.38 ERA vs projected 6.75 (5 ER in 13 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Matthew Liberatore (STL) threw 13 outs, 5 ER = 10.38 ERA against a projected 6.75 ERA (3.63 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 11 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (6 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Connor Norby: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.301, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jake McCarthy: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error
Ezequiel Tovar: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.278, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Mason Adams (COL) threw 14 outs, 3 ER = 5.79 ERA against a projected 8.31 ERA (-2.52 ERA error) only 2 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 7 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 12 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Iván Herrera: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Thomas Saggese: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Joshua Baez: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Matthew Liberatore (Starter)	13 / 16	10.38 / 6.75 (+3.63)	5 / 4	4 / 7	0 / 1	2 / 1	3 / 4	venue away: 4.93 vs 5.87 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.05 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
COL	Mason Adams (Starter)	14 / 13	5.79 / 8.31	3 / 4	8 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 2	7 / 2	opp run factor 0.99 (average) · thin sample: 2 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
COL	Jaden Hill (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
COL	Jordan Romano (Closer)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
COL	Brennan Bernardino (Setup Man)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
STL	Iván Herrera (DH)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1.07	0.333 above average	projection too low
COL	Hunter Goodman (C)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.324 above average	bad day
STL	Thomas Saggese (SS)	2 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.78	0.311 average	no signal
STL	Jordan Walker (RF)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.78	0.349 elite	bad day
COL	Connor Norby (3B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.66	0.301 below average	good day
COL	Jake McCarthy (LF)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.66	0.319 average	no signal
STL	Joshua Baez (LF)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.329 above average	—
COL	Jordan Beck (RF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.243 weak	—
COL	Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.278 weak	—
STL	Bryan Torres (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.33	0.301 below average	—
STL	Nolan Gorman (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.31	0.275 weak	—
STL	Leonardo Bernal (C)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.377 elite	—
COL	Cole Carrigg (CF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.323 above average	—
COL	Adael Amador (2B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.17	0.261 weak	—
COL	TJ Rumfield (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.02	0.334 above average	—
STL	Alec Burleson (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.37 elite	—
STL	Nathan Church (CF)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.283 weak	—
COL	Troy Johnston (DH)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.329 above average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.736	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.199	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.057	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.509	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.71-5.17	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-6	0.509	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.71-5.17	6-5	0.457	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	7-6	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-6	7-6	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-6	7-6	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-6	7-6	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-6	7-6	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
STL	Bryan Torres	batter / 2B	deboosted	predicted_AB 2.5
STL	Leonardo Bernal	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 2.42
STL	Joshua Baez	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.263
COL	Troy Johnston	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB -2.17
COL	Connor Norby	batter / 3B	better	predicted_AB 1.814
COL	TJ Rumfield	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_BB 1.522
STL	Iván Herrera	batter / DH	worse	predicted_H -1.47
COL	Jordan Beck	batter / RF	deboosted	predicted_H 1.438

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=10; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Connor Norby: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=2	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Joshua Baez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TB@TEXHIT

Predicted: TB 6-5 (conf -0.07, lean)Actual: TB 6-3Brier 0.218total bias +2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.07 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.589, recent -0.298, pitcher -0.049, composite -0.685
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.467
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TB	Drew Rasmussen	3 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-2
TEX	Jacob deGrom	4 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.019 / away×1.068; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Yandy Díaz (TB DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 2.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.25]
Jonathan Aranda (TB 1B): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Richie Palacios (TB 2B): 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Evan Carter (TEX CF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Ezequiel Duran (TEX 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Jacob deGrom (TEX) posted 3.00 ERA vs projected 7.20 (2 ER in 18 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.07, bucket average).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Drew Rasmussen (TB) threw 21 outs, 1 ER = 1.29 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (-3.21 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 7 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Evan Carter: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.28, weak - a good day, not a model error
Danny Jansen: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.25, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jacob deGrom (TEX) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-4.2 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 8 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jonathan Aranda: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.35, elite - real projection error
Richie Palacios: 1-for-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error
Liam Hicks: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TB	Drew Rasmussen (Starter)	21 / 18	1.29 / 4.5 (-3.21)	1 / 3	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 2	7 / 6	venue away: 2.69 vs 3.22 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (weak) · 26 prior appearances this season
TB	Kevin Kelly (Setup Man)	1 / 3	54 / 18 (+36.00)	2 / 2	2 / 4	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 1
TB	Tyler Wells (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1
TEX	Jacob deGrom (Starter)	18 / 15	3 / 7.2 (-4.20)	2 / 4	4 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 2	7 / 4	venue home: 2.42 vs 5.86 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.07 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
TEX	Jacob Latz (Closer)	5 / 5	10.8 / 0 (+10.80)	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0
TEX	Jakob Junis (Setup Man)	3 / 5	9 / 10.8	1 / 2	3 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TB	Yandy Díaz (DH)	4 / 6	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-1.25	0.355 elite	bad day
TB	Jonathan Aranda (1B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1.07	0.35 elite	projection too low
TB	Richie Palacios (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.93	0.305 average	no signal
TEX	Evan Carter (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.28 weak	good day
TEX	Ezequiel Duran (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.306 average	no signal
TEX	Wyatt Langford (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.313 average	no signal
TEX	Brandon Nimmo (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.353 elite	bad day
TB	Liam Hicks (C)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.47	0.316 average	—
TB	Chandler Simpson (LF)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.261 weak	—
TB	Cedric Mullins (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.267 weak	—
TEX	Cody Freeman (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.47	0.231 weak	—
TEX	Danny Jansen (C)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.25 weak	—
TEX	Corey Seager (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.351 elite	—
TB	Junior Caminero (3B)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.363 elite	—
TB	Taylor Walls (SS)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.249 weak	—
TEX	Joc Pederson (DH)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.342 elite	—
TEX	Jake Burger (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.312 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.589	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.298	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.049	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.685	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.25-4.07	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.533	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.25-4.07	4-4	-0.18	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	6-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	6-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	6-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TEX	Corey Seager	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.988
TEX	Joc Pederson	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 2.27
TB	Jonathan Aranda	batter / 1B	better	predicted_SO 1.978
TB	Junior Caminero	batter / 3B	better	predicted_AB -1.96
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 1.94
TEX	Ezequiel Duran	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB 1.458
TB	Liam Hicks	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.43
TB	Chandler Simpson	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.28

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=5).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yandy Díaz: AB current=6 box=5, H current=2 box=1, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Danny Jansen: AB current=3 box=4	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TOR@KCHIT

Predicted: TOR 7-5 (conf -0.14, moderate)Actual: TOR 4-3Brier 0.185total bias +5

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.14 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.491, recent -0.488, pitcher -0.090, composite -0.951
confidence pipeline reached 0.620 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.430
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (12 vs 7)
TOR offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TOR	Max Scherzer	4 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 17 outs	-1
KC	Seth Lugo	2 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1 / away×1.091; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Carter Jensen (KC C): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
John Rave (KC CF): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Nathan Lukes (TOR RF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR 3B): 4-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 0.77]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Max Scherzer (TOR) threw 17 outs, 3 ER = 4.76 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-2.44 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

John Rave: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - real projection error
Salvador Perez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.308, average - a good day, not a model error
Isaac Collins: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.296, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Seth Lugo (KC) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (1.8 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 13 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nathan Lukes: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.287, below average - a good day, not a model error
Kazuma Okamoto: 4-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.77 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error
Andrés Giménez: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.269, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TOR	Max Scherzer (Starter)	17 / 15	4.76 / 7.2	3 / 4	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 2	2 / 3	venue away: 6 vs 6.23 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (weak) · 13 prior appearances this season
TOR	Louis Varland (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
TOR	Tyler Rogers (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
TOR	Mason Fluharty (Middle Reliever)	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1
KC	Seth Lugo (Starter)	15 / 15	5.4 / 3.6	3 / 2	8 / 5	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 6	venue home: 4.01 vs 6.19 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
KC	Craig Kimbrel (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
KC	Carter Jensen (C)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.73	0.304 below average	projection too high
KC	John Rave (CF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.26	0.324 above average	projection too low
TOR	Nathan Lukes (RF)	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.287 below average	good day
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.325 above average	bad day
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	5 / 4	4 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.77	0.319 average	no signal
KC	Salvador Perez (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.308 average	—
KC	Josh Rojas (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.217 weak	—
TOR	George Springer (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.45	0.306 average	—
TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.33	0.333 above average	—
TOR	Andrés Giménez (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.269 weak	—
KC	Isaac Collins (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.296 below average	—
TOR	Myles Straw (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.31	0.296 below average	—
KC	Jac Caglianone (RF)	1 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.357 elite	—
KC	Michael Massey (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.31	0.306 average	—
KC	Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.383 elite	—
TOR	Alejandro Kirk (C)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.302 below average	—
TOR	Brett Bateman (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
TOR	Ernie Clement (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.266 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.491	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.488	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.09	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.951	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.31-4.76	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-5	0.57	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.31-4.76	4-5	-0.542	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	7-5	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-5	7-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-5	7-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-5	7-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-5	7-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TOR	George Springer	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 3.27
KC	Jac Caglianone	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 2.29
KC	Michael Massey	batter / 2B	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.57
TOR	Alejandro Kirk	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.5
TOR	Myles Straw	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 1.5
KC	Salvador Perez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -1.45
TOR	Nathan Lukes	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.447
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.42

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; John Rave: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Josh Rojas: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=2, sim=3).	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=6, sim=10).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brett Bateman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; George Springer: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

WAS@LADHIT

Predicted: LAD 3-4 (conf +0.15, moderate)Actual: LAD 5-6Brier 0.182total bias -4

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.15 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.741, recent +0.306, pitcher +0.041, composite +0.753
confidence pipeline reached 0.622 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.573
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 4 (7 vs 11)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
WAS	Cade Cavalli	4 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-2
LAD	Tyler Glasnow	3 ER / 17 outs	4 ER / 18 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.09 / away×1.05; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Freddie Freeman (LAD 1B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Alex Freeland (LAD 2B): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.13]
Dylan Crews (WAS CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
James Wood (WAS RF): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Tommy Edman (LAD CF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Cade Cavalli (WAS) posted 3.00 ERA vs projected 6.35 (2 ER in 18 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.09, bucket strong).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Cade Cavalli (WAS) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 6.35 ERA (-3.35 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 4 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Alex Freeland: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.13 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error
Tommy Edman: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) threw 18 outs, 4 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (1.24 ERA error) only 9 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Dylan Crews: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error
Daylen Lile: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.329, above average - real projection error
Keibert Ruiz: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.286, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
WAS	Cade Cavalli (Starter)	18 / 17	3 / 6.35 (-3.35)	2 / 4	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 5	8 / 6	venue away: 2.94 vs 3.27 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (strong) · 29 prior appearances this season
WAS	Erik Tolman (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	13.5 / 0 (+13.50)	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0
WAS	Clayton Beeter (Closer)	2 / 3	40.5 / 0 (+40.50)	3 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0
LAD	Tyler Glasnow (Starter)	18 / 17	6 / 4.76	4 / 3	6 / 2	0 / 0	3 / 4	8 / 9	venue home: 4.08 vs 2.12 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.05 (strong) · 9 prior appearances this season
LAD	Tanner Scott (Closer)	3 / 3	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 2

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAD	Freddie Freeman (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.374 elite	bad day
LAD	Alex Freeland (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	1.13	0.289 below average	good day
WAS	Dylan Crews (CF)	4 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	1.09	0.307 average	no signal
WAS	James Wood (RF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.93	0.417 elite	bad day
LAD	Tommy Edman (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.316 average	no signal
LAD	Alex Call (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.277 weak	projection too high
WAS	Daylen Lile (LF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.329 above average	projection too low
LAD	Teoscar Hernández (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.323 above average	bad day
WAS	Jorbit Vivas (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.298 below average	—
WAS	Keibert Ruiz (C)	3 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.286 below average	—
LAD	Kyle Tucker (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
WAS	Brady House (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.336 above average	—
LAD	Mookie Betts (SS)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.16	0.329 above average	—
WAS	CJ Abrams (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 1	0	0.328 above average	—
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.294 below average	—
WAS	José Tena (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.297 below average	—
LAD	Hunter Feduccia (C)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.319 average	—
LAD	Enrique Hernández (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.267 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.741	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.306	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.041	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.753	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.79-5.11	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.573	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.79-5.11	4-5	-0.322	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Mookie Betts	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 3.21
WAS	Keibert Ruiz	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 2.607
WAS	Jorbit Vivas	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 2.58
WAS	Daylen Lile	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 2.206
WAS	Cade Cavalli	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz	batter / 1B	better	predicted_BB 1.833
WAS	CJ Abrams	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.59
WAS	José Tena	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=6).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alex Freeland: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Alex Call: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=5).	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=7, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=14).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: CJ Abrams: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; José Tena: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Day over day: did it improve or worsen

Compared against packet 20260904. Last recorded change: v4.25.0 (20260906) Player deviations are separated into real projection error and variance using each hitter's own season contact quality, so the loop stops learning from lucky days.

Metric	Prior	Current	Δ	Result
brier_score	0.2474	0.2459	-0.001537	improved
accuracy	0.5833	0.5833	+0	flat
team_run_mae	2.6792	2.5917	-0.0875	improved
total_run_mae	3.7083	3.6167	-0.0916	improved
calibration_error	0.0846	0.0868	+0.0022	regressed
starter_er_mae	1.9386	1.9426	+0.004	regressed
starter_outs_mae	2.8114	2.8811	+0.0697	regressed

Deep slate report — 20260905

Process, end to end

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

ARI@HOUHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

ATL@PHIMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BOS@BALHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHC@MIAHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

DET@CLEMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAA@PITMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIL@CINMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIN@CHWHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYY@SDHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

OAK@SEAMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)