Deep slate report 20260903

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260903.json	n/a
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260903.json	n/a
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260903.json	n/a
game artifacts	loaded	per-game model trace and structural audit source	/app/output/games	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (9)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 1 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	MIA@KC	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	artifact_integrity	Canonical artifact warning requires reconciliation structural audit totals: {'critical': 0, 'error': 0, 'warning': 1, 'info': 68}	slate-wide	Do thisFix the flagged stat or presentation contract before treating this slate as clean evidence. Don't concludeA warning flags a display or contract issue; it does not prove the model picked the wrong side.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0234/0.0268/0.0262	BOS@BAL, CHW@HOU, MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, TB@TEX, TOR@CLE	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 9/9 games structurally audited	BOS@BAL, CHW@HOU, MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, TB@TEX, TOR@CLE	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	BOS@BAL, CHW@HOU, MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, TB@TEX, TOR@CLE	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	7 consecutive · 7 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 7 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	7 consecutive · 7 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 7 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	2/7	no	param
pipeline_winner_instability	0	3/7	no	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	0	3/7	no	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	7	7/7	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	0	5/7	no	param
weak_run_model_signal	7	7/7	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	flat	[0.4667, 0.9412, 0.5, 0.6667, 0.4667, 0.3333, 0.5556]
weighted_calibration_error	improving	[0.2179, 0.3961, 0.0693, 0.1661, 0.2476, 0.21, 0.1474]
margin_bias	improving	[-1.333, -1.882, -2.786, -3.5, -2.533, -3.067, -1.778]
team_run_error_on_losses	regressing	[5.0, 3.0, 7.0, 8.25, 7.125, 6.4, 6.75]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	5/9	55.6%	2.001	2.502	2.725
variance_applied	4/9	44.4%	2.056	2.556	2.778
enhanced_prediction	5/9	55.6%	2.333	3.111	2.889
embedded_savant_run_environment	5/9	55.6%	2.333	3.111	2.889
fundamental_edge_target_review	5/9	55.6%	2.333	3.111	2.889
capped_target	5/9	55.6%	2.333	3.111	2.889
simulation_result	5/9	55.6%	2.333	3.111	2.889
published_final	5/9	55.6%	2.333	3.111	2.889

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.1112	-1	0.055	0.0532	BOS@BAL: BOS → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.1112	1	0.2777	0.1111	BOS@BAL: TIE → BOS
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	0	0
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
BOS@BAL	hit	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHW@HOU	hit	0.5816	0.5786	0.5786	0.5818	0.5591	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIA@KC	miss	0.5278	0.5271	0.5271	0.556	0.5476	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
MIL@CHC	miss	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.5337	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
OAK@SEA	miss	0.6086	0.6045	0.6045	0.6373	0.6373	score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin
SF@PIT	hit	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
STL@LAD	hit	0.5816	0.5786	0.5786	0.5818	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TB@TEX	miss	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.5337	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TOR@CLE	hit	0.5448	0.5439	0.5439	0.5644	0.5466	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
18	4	6	1	7	0.24	-0.83

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12
20260903	9	0.556	—	—
20260902	15	0.333	—	—
20260901	15	0.467	—	—
20260831	12	0.667	—	—
20260830	14	0.500	—	—
20260829	17	0.941	—	—
20260828	15	0.467	—	—

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
BOS@BAL	1	1	0
CHW@HOU	1	4	-3
MIA@KC	1	4	-3
MIL@CHC	1	1	0
OAK@SEA	2	3	-1
SF@PIT	1	3	-2
STL@LAD	1	1	0
TB@TEX	1	6	-5
TOR@CLE	1	3	-2

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BOS	Jake Bennett	3 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	0
BAL	Brandon Young	4 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 20 outs	-1

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
BOS	Jake Bennett (Starter)	18 / 17	4.5 / 4.76	3 / 3	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 3	7 / 7	venue away: 3.02 vs 3.52 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.94 (average) · 16 prior appearances this season
BOS	Aroldis Chapman (Closer)	3 / 4	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1
BOS	Erik Miller (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 2
BOS	Garrett Whitlock (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0
BAL	Brandon Young (Starter)	20 / 17	4.05 / 6.35	3 / 4	4 / 3	2 / 2	2 / 3	7 / 5	venue home: 3.03 vs 3.39 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 23 prior appearances this season
BAL	Yennier Cano (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 3	27 / 9 (+18.00)	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
BOS	Adley Rutschman (C)	4 / 6	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2.33	0.338 above average	projection too low
BAL	Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2.2	0.343 elite	projection too low
BOS	Mickey Gasper (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	-1.4	0.372 elite	bad day
BOS	Roman Anthony (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 1	0.93	0.361 elite	projection too low
BAL	Luis Robert Jr. (CF)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.321 above average	projection too low
BOS	Caleb Durbin (3B)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.288 below average	projection too high
BAL	Leody Taveras (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.273 weak	projection too high
BOS	Eli White (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.271 weak	good day
BOS	Wilyer Abreu (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.347 elite	bad day
BOS	Nick Sogard (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.62	0.327 above average	projection too low
BOS	Jarren Duran (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.296 below average	—
BAL	Dylan Beavers (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.45	0.304 below average	—
BAL	Gunnar Henderson (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.316 average	—
BAL	Pete Alonso (1B)	3 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.392 elite	—
BOS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.307 average	—
BAL	Blaze Alexander (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.356 elite	—
BAL	Coby Mayo (DH)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.319 average	—
BAL	Carlos Narváez (C)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.265 weak	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.254	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.61	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.059	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.297	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.42-4.15	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.42-4.15	4-4	-0.271	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	5-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BOS	Nick Sogard	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 3.65
BAL	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H 2.77
BOS	Adley Rutschman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.66
BAL	Coby Mayo	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.476
BOS	Eli White	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
BOS	Wilyer Abreu	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.4
BAL	Yennier Cano	pitcher / Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	better	predicted_IP 1.333
BAL	Dylan Beavers	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 1.137

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=7, sim=5; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Robert Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=6 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0	BOS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHW	Luis Castillo	4 ER / 14 outs	6 ER / 12 outs	2
HOU	Hunter Brown	3 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-1

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Hunter Brown (Starter)	18 / 17	3 / 4.76	2 / 3	6 / 6	0 / 2	2 / 4	7 / 3	venue home: 3.8 vs 2.67 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 15 prior appearances this season
HOU	Bryan Abreu (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
HOU	AJ Blubaugh (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CHW	Munetaka Murakami (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 2	-1.73	0.35 elite	bad day
HOU	Yordan Alvarez (DH)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-1.4	0.45 elite	bad day
CHW	Colson Montgomery (SS)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.307 average	no signal
HOU	Christian Walker (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.3 below average	good day
HOU	Jose Altuve (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.272 weak	good day
HOU	Jeremy Peña (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.326 above average	bad day
HOU	Taylor Trammell (RF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.285 below average	good day
HOU	Daulton Varsho (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.62	0.292 below average	good day
CHW	Tristan Peters (CF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.319 average	—
HOU	LaMonte Wade Jr. (LF)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.278 weak	—
HOU	Isaac Paredes (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.31	0.32 average	—
HOU	Yainer Diaz (C)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.304 below average	—
CHW	Chase Meidroth (2B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.16	0.292 below average	—
CHW	Andrew Benintendi (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.31 average	—
CHW	Miguel Vargas (3B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.386 elite	—
CHW	Sam Antonacci (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.342 elite	—
CHW	Braden Montgomery (RF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.329 above average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.415	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.066	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.04	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.057	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.18-5.22	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.559	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.18-5.22	4-5	-0.037	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
HOU	Taylor Trammell	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 3.04
CHW	Braden Montgomery	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.171
HOU	Jose Altuve	batter / 2B	better	predicted_H 2.1
HOU	Jeremy Peña	batter / SS	better	predicted_H 1.83
HOU	Christian Walker	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 1.62
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.542
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / SS	better	predicted_SO -1.435
CHW	Andrew Benintendi	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.43

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=11, sim=13).	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4; Jake Rogers: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=12).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SF current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; LaMonte Wade Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	HOU
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIA	Sandy Alcantara	1 ER / 19 outs	4 ER / 18 outs	3
KC	Michael Wacha	3 ER / 19 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	0

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIA	Sandy Alcantara (Starter)	18 / 19	6 / 1.42 (+4.58)	4 / 1	6 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 2	venue away: 4.22 vs 2.58 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.94 (weak) · 29 prior appearances this season
MIA	Tyler Zuber (Setup Man)	1 / 3	54 / 9 (+45.00)	2 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
KC	Michael Wacha (Starter)	18 / 19	4.5 / 4.26	3 / 3	6 / 8	2 / 0	2 / 2	7 / 5	venue home: 3.04 vs 3.56 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.96 (average) · 27 prior appearances this season
KC	Nate Pearson (Setup Man)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0
KC	Steven Cruz (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0
KC	Craig Kimbrel (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
KC	Carter Jensen (C)	4 / 5	3 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1.54	0.304 below average	good day
KC	Kyle Isbel (CF)	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	0.264 weak	good day
MIA	Graham Pauley (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.225 weak	projection too high
KC	Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.78	0.383 elite	bad day
MIA	Kyle Stowers (1B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.62	0.335 above average	bad day
MIA	Heriberto Hernández (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.353 elite	projection too low
MIA	Agustín Ramírez (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.275 weak	good day
MIA	Griffin Conine (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.373 elite	—
MIA	Joe Mack (C)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.289 below average	—
KC	Jac Caglianone (RF)	4 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.357 elite	—
KC	Josh Rojas (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.217 weak	—
KC	Isaac Collins (LF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.296 below average	—
KC	Salvador Perez (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.308 average	—
MIA	Otto Lopez (SS)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.324 above average	—
MIA	Javier Sanoja (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.02	0.287 below average	—
MIA	Jakob Marsee (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.305 average	—
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.325 above average	—
KC	Michael Massey (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.306 average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.484	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.134	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.021	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.526	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.95-4.03	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.95-4.03	5-4	0.084	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
KC	Michael Wacha	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 5
KC	Craig Kimbrel	pitcher / Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	worse	predicted_SO -2
MIA	Griffin Conine	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.985
MIA	Jakob Marsee	batter / CF	better	predicted_2B 1.878
MIA	Agustín Ramírez	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.74
MIA	Javier Sanoja	batter / 2B	boosted	predicted_AB 1.64
MIA	Graham Pauley	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H 1.38
MIA	Kyle Stowers	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO -1.34

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Rojas: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=5; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Agustín Ramírez: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Graham Pauley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIL	Logan Henderson	3 ER / 18 outs	2 ER / 21 outs	-1
CHC	Kevin Gausman	5 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-4

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIL	Logan Henderson (Starter)	21 / 18	2.57 / 4.5	2 / 3	3 / 3	1 / 2	0 / 2	7 / 7	venue away: 2.89 vs 2.08 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (strong) · 14 prior appearances this season
CHC	Kevin Gausman (Starter)	21 / 17	1.29 / 7.94 (-6.65)	1 / 5	5 / 6	1 / 0	1 / 4	9 / 7	venue home: 4.14 vs 4.95 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.1 (strong) · 28 prior appearances this season

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
MIL	Jackson Chourio (LF)	4 / 6	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-1.4	0.334 above average	bad day
CHC	Michael Busch (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.328 above average	bad day
CHC	Seiya Suzuki (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.339 above average	bad day
MIL	Andrew Vaughn (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.93	0.336 above average	projection too low
MIL	Brice Turang (2B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.8	0.335 above average	bad day
CHC	Ian Happ (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.313 average	no signal
MIL	William Contreras (C)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.333 above average	bad day
MIL	Christian Yelich (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.314 average	no signal
CHC	Alex Bregman (3B)	3 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.62	0.318 average	no signal
MIL	Jake Bauers (RF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.373 elite	—
CHC	Nico Hoerner (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.324 above average	—
CHC	Michael Conforto (DH)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.333 above average	—
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.369 elite	—
CHC	Pedro Ramirez (2B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.293 below average	—
MIL	Garrett Mitchell (CF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.346 elite	—
MIL	Joey Ortiz (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.295 below average	—
MIL	David Hamilton (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.275 weak	—
CHC	Carson Kelly (C)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.311 average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.171	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.29	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.149	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.53	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.82-4.04	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-6	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.82-4.04	5-4	0.217	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	7-6	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-6	7-6	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-6	7-6	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-6	7-6	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-6	7-6	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	Christian Yelich	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.6
MIL	David Hamilton	batter / 3B	better	predicted_H 2.35
MIL	William Contreras	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.13
MIL	Andrew Vaughn	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 2.091
CHC	Kevin Gausman	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
CHC	Carson Kelly	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.381
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.32
CHC	Michael Busch	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 1.28

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
warning	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count row for Logan Henderson differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2.	MIL Logan Henderson
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=11; BB: current=4, sim=5).	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=2, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=3).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=5).	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Chourio: AB current=6 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Joey Ortiz: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	MIL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
OAK	Jack Perkins	3 ER / 12 outs	3 ER / 9 outs	0
SEA	Kade Anderson	3 ER / 13 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	1

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
OAK	Jack Perkins (Starter)	9 / 12	9 / 6.75	3 / 3	4 / 5	0 / 2	5 / 1	7 / 2	venue away: 7.94 vs 7.45 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (weak) · 32 prior appearances this season
OAK	Hogan Harris (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0
OAK	Luis Medina (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 0
SEA	Kade Anderson (Starter)	15 / 13	7.2 / 6.23	4 / 3	7 / 5	1 / 2	2 / 0	3 / 4	venue home: 4.76 vs 4.15 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (weak) · thin sample: 2 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
SEA	Eduard Bazardo (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	3 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1
SEA	Gabe Speier (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
SEA	Lazaro Montes (RF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.26	0.27 weak	projection too high
OAK	Jeff McNeil (1B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.307 average	no signal
OAK	Brian Serven (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.308 average	no signal
SEA	Cal Raleigh (C)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.93	0.315 average	no signal
OAK	Henry Bolte (CF)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.311 average	no signal
OAK	Zack Gelof (LF)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.76	0.316 average	no signal
SEA	J.P. Crawford (SS)	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	0.66	0.327 above average	projection too low
SEA	Julio Rodríguez (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.64	0.336 above average	projection too low
SEA	Randy Arozarena (LF)	3 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.64	0.349 elite	projection too low
SEA	Josh Naylor (1B)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.313 average	—
SEA	Cole Young (2B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	0.47	0.316 average	—
OAK	Michael Stefanic (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.372 elite	—
OAK	Jonah Heim (DH)	5 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.292 below average	—
OAK	Alika Williams (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.245 weak	—
OAK	Lawrence Butler (RF)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.324 above average	—
SEA	Dominic Canzone (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.02	0.356 elite	—
OAK	Max Muncy (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.293 below average	—
SEA	Brock Rodden (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.231 weak	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.611	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.006	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.039	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.611	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.02-5.04	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	0.637	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.02-5.04	4-5	-0.021	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-6	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-6	4-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-6	4-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-6	4-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-6	4-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SEA	Cole Young	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 3.67
SEA	Julio Rodríguez	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.14
OAK	Michael Stefanic	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_BB 1.667
SEA	Cal Raleigh	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.65
OAK	Jonah Heim	batter / DH	deboosted	predicted_AB 1.596
SEA	Josh Naylor	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB -1.54
OAK	Brian Serven	batter / C	boosted	predicted_RBI 1.31
OAK	Lawrence Butler	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.25

TOR@CLEHIT

Predicted: TOR 4-3 (conf -0.09, lean)Actual: TOR 6-3Brier 0.206total bias -2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.09 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.214, recent +0.034, pitcher -0.040, composite -0.142
confidence pipeline reached 0.544 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.453
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 9 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

José Soriano (TOR) allowed 3 more ER than projected (3 vs 0)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TOR	José Soriano	0 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 14 outs	3
CLE	Tanner Bibee	3 ER / 18 outs	5 ER / 12 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.928 / away×0.968; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

José Ramírez (CLE DH): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Travis Bazzana (CLE 2B): 0-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Austin Hedges (CLE C): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Brandon Valenzuela (TOR C): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.66]
Brett Bateman (TOR CF): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.61]

Starter miss: Tanner Bibee (CLE) posted 11.25 ERA vs projected 4.50 (5 ER in 12 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

José Soriano (TOR) threw 14 outs, 3 ER = 5.79 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (5.79 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 10 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Austin Hedges: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error
Angel Genao: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.297, below average - a good day, not a model error
Nathaniel Lowe: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Tanner Bibee (CLE) threw 12 outs, 5 ER = 11.25 ERA against a projected 4.5 ERA (6.75 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brandon Valenzuela: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Brett Bateman: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.282, weak - a good day, not a model error
Josh Smith: 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.52 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.288, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TOR	José Soriano (Starter)	14 / 18	5.79 / 0 (+5.79)	3 / 0	6 / 3	0 / 0	3 / 2	2 / 10	venue away: 3.32 vs 3.61 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
TOR	Louis Varland (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0
TOR	Tyler Rogers (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1
TOR	Spencer Miles (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0
CLE	Tanner Bibee (Starter)	12 / 18	11.25 / 4.5 (+6.75)	5 / 3	4 / 7	0 / 0	5 / 1	4 / 9	venue home: 3.8 vs 3.99 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
CLE	Colin Holderman (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CLE	José Ramírez (DH)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-1.26	0.335 above average	bad day
CLE	Travis Bazzana (2B)	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.299 below average	projection too high
CLE	Austin Hedges (C)	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.275 weak	good day
TOR	Brandon Valenzuela (C)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.66	0.313 average	no signal
TOR	Brett Bateman (CF)	5 / 5	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.61	0.282 weak	good day
TOR	Josh Smith (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 1	0.52	0.288 below average	good day
TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	-0.47	0.333 above average	—
CLE	Brayan Rocchio (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
TOR	Sean Keys (DH)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.247 weak	—
TOR	Ernie Clement (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.33	0.266 weak	—
CLE	Angel Genao (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0.33	0.297 below average	—
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.335 above average	—
TOR	Jesús Sánchez (LF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.326 above average	—
TOR	Nathan Lukes (RF)	5 / 5	2 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.16	0.287 below average	—
CLE	Steven Kwan (CF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.14	0.321 above average	—
CLE	Jo Adell (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.02	0.325 above average	—
TOR	Andrés Giménez (SS)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.269 weak	—
CLE	Chase DeLauter (RF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.343 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.214	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.034	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.04	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.142	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.5-3.61	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.547	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.5-3.61	5-4	0.11	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	4-3	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CLE	Travis Bazzana	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 3.089
CLE	Steven Kwan	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 3.024
CLE	José Ramírez	batter / DH	better	predicted_SO 2.431
TOR	Jesús Sánchez	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 2.234
CLE	Austin Hedges	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 2.079
TOR	José Soriano	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
TOR	Nathan Lukes	batter / RF	boosted	predicted_H 1.87
CLE	Chase DeLauter	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.56

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=11).	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=12).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=4, sim=5).	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=43; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0; Sean Keys: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Lukes: AB current=5 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Brett Bateman: AB current=5 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=0 box=1	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Luna deep post-mortem (full)

> Coverage receipt: COMPLETE · 9/8 sections; 9/9 games; 5/5 causes; 6/6 sources

1. Evidence receipt and gaps

Sources received

All six available source-manifest artifacts were marked loaded:

Prediction review — /app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260903.json, 225,604 bytes; official outcomes and scoring errors.
Forensic deep audit — /app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260903.json, 151,096 bytes; probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts.
Continuous learning — /app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260903.json, 1,175,839 bytes; pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distributions, and official starter comparisons.
Detailed report — /app/output/reports/detailed_20260903.html, 215,805 bytes; game and simulation rendering.
Ultra-detailed player audit — /app/output/reports/20260903_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html, 18,544,069 bytes; player-level prediction trace.
Structural audit — /app/output/reports/audit_report_20260903.html, 1,125,883 bytes; invariant findings.

One manifest entry was missing:

Integrity revision audit — /app/output/reports/audit_report_20260903_integrity_revision.html; intended to provide post-remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts. Bytes were null and status was missing.

That missing artifact is a receipt gap. It does not establish that the predictions were wrong, but it prevents a complete independent verification of revision immutability and post-Luna remediation claims.

Slate coverage

All nine expected games were reviewed:

BOS@BAL
CHW@HOU
MIA@KC
MIL@CHC
OAK@SEA
SF@PIT
STL@LAD
TB@TEX
TOR@CLE

Coverage is internally complete for the available evidence:

Expected games: 9
Games reviewed: 9
Canonical artifacts loaded: 9
Continuous-learning games: 9
Forensic deep-audit games: 9
Games with starter comparisons: 9
Structural audits completed: 9
Learning eligibility: eligible, because all artifacts passed critical/error structural gates.

Contradictions and unresolved gaps

MIA@KC probability publication delta: calibrated pick probability was 0.5271, while published pick probability was 0.547642, a +0.020542 delta. The lineage explicitly says there is “no recorded transformation” explaining it. This is the registered critical issue.
MIA@KC probability representation: the game-level diagnostic says published home probability was 0.452, consistent with a 0.547642 away-pick probability. Thus, the numerical values may be complementary side representations rather than a mathematical contradiction. The problem is that the transformation and side orientation were not recorded clearly enough to reconcile the value.
MIL@CHC structural warning: Logan Henderson’s pitch-count summary recorded 3 hits allowed versus 2 in the pitching box score. This is a warning-level source inconsistency, not a demonstrated cause of the miss.
Artifact warning: the aggregate structural audit reports one warning and 68 informational findings, but the supplied aggregate does not identify the exact warning. The per-game evidence identifies the MIL pitch-count warning; the canonical artifact warning should still be reconciled explicitly.
No player-level actuals: MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, SF@PIT, and TB@TEX state that per-player actuals were unavailable. Player-level attribution for those games is therefore limited to projected adjustments and team/starter outcomes.
No market cross-check: no source-labelled moneyline was available for any game. Market agreement or disagreement cannot be assessed.
No actual causal proof from one slate: several causal claims are appropriately framed as drivers or risks rather than proven causal effects. Persistent findings in the cross-slate section are different: those have been escalated and must be treated as established operational failures.

---

2. Executive diagnosis

Outcome summary

The system went 5–4, with winner accuracy of 55.56%.

That result is only modestly above guessing and below the validated historical walk-forward baseline:

Slate winner accuracy: 0.5556
Walk-forward accuracy: 0.560345
Historical validation winner accuracy: 0.596659
Walk-forward Brier: 0.243487
Historical validation Brier: 0.239497
Slate weighted absolute calibration error: 0.1474

The self-assessment correctly says the slate beat coin-flipping but did not beat the validated baseline.

Winner accuracy

Five winners were correct: BOS, HOU, PIT, LAD, and TOR.
Four winners were wrong: MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, and TB@TEX.
The two highest-conviction games included one miss: OAK@SEA was a strong-confidence miss at 0.637 home probability.
High-conviction miss rate: 0.5.

Winner accuracy is therefore weak-to-flat, not a success merely because five calls were correct.

Calibration quality

Calibration was unstable and poor in the most consequential bucket:

0.50–0.55 bucket: 7 games, 4 hits, average confidence 0.5359, observed hit rate 0.5714, calibration error -0.0355.
0.55–0.60 bucket: 1 game, 1 hit, calibration error -0.4409; this is a one-game sample and should not be generalized.
0.60–0.65 bucket: 1 game, 0 hits, calibration error +0.6373; this was OAK@SEA.
Weighted absolute calibration error: 0.1474.

The confidence system was not demonstrated to be globally anti-predictive, but the strong-confidence loss and the cross-slate confidence findings justify bounded confidence reduction and wider score distributions. A published home-away edge of 0.12, such as CHW@HOU, is moderate—not a near-coin-flip justification for ignoring all directional information, and not strong evidence of a robust edge.

Score accuracy

Score accuracy was the weakest model dimension.

Slate-level facts:

Every predicted margin was between 1 and 2 runs.
Actual margins ranged from 1 to 6 runs.
Three games had actual margins of at least 4.
Model margin MAE: 2.8889
Signed margin bias: −1.333, indicating compressed predicted margins.
Losses had mean team-run error of 6.75 and mean total-run bias of +2.75.
MIL@CHC was particularly poor: 10 team runs of absolute error and total overprojection of 10.

The run models have near-zero holdout explanatory power:

Away-run R²: 0.026799
Home-run R²: 0.023403
Total-run R²: 0.026176
Training rows: 2,093

This supports treating exact scores as low-confidence estimates. It does not prove that every specific score miss came from the run model, nor does it justify arbitrary score-tail tuning without backtesting.

Starter accuracy

Starter projections were materially wrong in several losses:

MIA@KC: Sandy Alcantara projected 1 ER, actual 4 ER; error +3 ER.
MIL@CHC: Kevin Gausman projected 5 ER, actual 1 ER; error −4 ER.
TB@TEX: Cal Quantrill projected 3 ER, actual 0 ER; error −3 ER.
TOR@CLE: José Soriano projected 0 ER, actual 3 ER; error +3 ER, although TOR still won.

The starter-weighting lever has a mixed slate result: four games identified as helped versus three games potentially harmed. That is not strong enough to justify an aggressive global reweighting from this slate alone, especially because the persistent cross-slate run-model findings are stronger than this one-slate starter balance.

Artifact integrity

Artifact integrity was mostly good but not clean:

Aggregate structural audit: 0 critical, 0 error, 1 warning, 68 info.
Per-game audits passed except MIL@CHC, which had one warning.
No artifact defect was identified as the cause of any winner miss.
The missing integrity revision audit remains a contract-evidence gap.
MIA@KC has a critical probability-lineage failure, even though its structural game artifact passed.

The distinction is important: prediction artifacts can pass structural QA while still containing a material probability-publication contract defect.

Causal issue register reconciliation

Critical: unexplained published probability delta

ID: unexplained_probability_publication_delta
Severity: critical
Domain: probability lineage
Affected game: MIA@KC
Evidence: one game has an unexplained calibrated-to-published delta of at least 2 percentage points; calibrated pick probability 0.5271, published pick probability 0.547642, delta 0.020542.
Action: block promotion until the missing transformation is recorded and reconciled.
Guardrail: do not assume the probability governor was bypassed before tracing pick-side math.

This is a contract/evidence failure, not proof that the wrong side was selected because of the publication delta.

High: artifact-integrity warning

ID: artifact_integrity_warning
Severity: high
Domain: artifact integrity
Affected games: none assigned
Evidence: aggregate totals of 0 critical, 0 error, 1 warning, 68 info.
Action: reconcile the flagged stat or presentation contract before treating the slate as clean evidence.
Guardrail: a warning does not prove the model picked the wrong side.
Known concrete warning: MIL@CHC’s Logan Henderson pitch-count row reports 3 hits allowed versus 2 in the box score.

High: weak run-model signal

ID: weak_run_model_signal
Severity: high
Domain: model validation
Affected games: all nine.
Evidence: home/away/total R² of 0.0234/0.0268/0.0262.
Action: improve features or target definition and use isolated backtesting; do not tune score tails as though exact scores were reliable.
Guardrail: low positive R² means the model slightly beats the average-run guess; it does not make exact scores reliable.

Informational: complete audit coverage

ID: complete_slate_audit_coverage
Severity: info
Evidence: 9/9 games structurally audited.
Action: preserve per-game audit receipts.
Guardrail: coverage does not cancel internal game findings.

Informational: simulation inertness

ID: simulation_inert_on_slate
Severity: info on this slate, but escalated across slates.
Evidence: zero flip candidates and zero published flips.
Action: measure simulation contribution over rolling slates and separate score realization from winner flipping.
Guardrail: zero winner flips is not itself a defect and does not prove that no score reconciliation occurred.

---

3. Every game

BOS@BAL — correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: BOS 5, BAL 4; winner BOS.
Actual: BOS 6, BAL 5; winner BOS.
Published probability: away/BOS pick probability 0.53; published home probability 0.470.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away −0.06; published system edge 0.06, lean.
Brier: 0.2209.
Team-run absolute error: 2.
Total-run bias: −2, meaning total was underprojected by two.
Conviction: lean.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge, home minus away: −0.2541.
Recent edge: +0.610.
Pitcher edge: −0.0592.
Composite edge: −0.2975.
Season quality edge was below action threshold; no season margin adjustment.
Confidence path: raw 0.52165 → governed/calibrated 0.5082 → published pick probability 0.53.
Governor applied; recency guardrail applied; score coherence and matchup-recency guardrail were recorded.
Score volatility action: no_change.

Starters

Jake Bennett, BOS: projected 3 ER/17 outs; actual 3 ER/18 outs. ER error 0.
Brandon Young, BAL: projected 4 ER/17 outs; actual 3 ER/20 outs. ER error −1.
Starter identities matched.

Score path

Historical ML was approximately BOS 4.95, BAL 4.03; variance stage rounded to 5–4. Later stages did not change the published score. The score missed by one run for each team but retained the correct one-run margin.

Player adjustments and audit

No player-level adjustments were recorded. Savant adjustment was applied. Structural audit: PASS, zero defects, seven informational findings. Forecast-file integrity was clean.

Primary cause: none assigned; correct directional call.
Secondary cause: score underestimation, but not a registered causal miss.
This is explicitly a correct-winner/wrong-score game.

---

CHW@HOU — correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: CHW 4, HOU 5; winner HOU.
Actual: CHW 2, HOU 6; winner HOU.
Published probability: home/HOU pick probability 0.559116.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away +0.1182; moderate.
Brier: 0.194379.
Team-run absolute error: 3.
Total-run bias: +1.
Conviction: moderate.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge: −0.4151.
Recent edge: +0.066.
Pitcher edge: +0.0402.
Composite edge: +0.0566.
Season quality edge was below action threshold.
Confidence path: raw/governor input 0.569255 → governed 0.5786 → published 0.559116.
Governor applied; recency guardrail applied.
Score volatility: no_change.

Starters

Luis Castillo, CHW: projected 4 ER/14 outs; actual 6 ER/12 outs. ER error +2.
Hunter Brown, HOU: projected 3 ER/17 outs; actual 2 ER/18 outs. ER error −1.
Starter identities matched.

Score path and audit

Predicted margin was one run; actual margin was four. No player-level adjustments were listed. Savant adjustment was applied. Structural audit: PASS, zero defects, eight informational findings.

Primary cause: none; winner call was correct.
Secondary cause: starter/run-score error, especially Castillo’s two extra ER and the compressed one-run margin.
This is a correct-winner/wrong-score game.
The 0.1182 edge is moderate, not a near-coin-flip edge.

---

MIA@KC — winner miss

Predicted: MIA 5, KC 4; winner MIA.
Actual: MIA 3, KC 7; winner KC.
Published probability: lineage gives away/MIA pick probability 0.547642; game diagnostic gives published home probability 0.452.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away −0.0953; displayed edge 0.10, lean.
Brier: 0.299912.
Team-run absolute error: 5.
Total-run bias: −1.
Conviction: lean.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge: −0.4839.
Recent edge: −0.134.
Pitcher edge: −0.0209.
Composite edge: −0.5256.
Recent-form data actually favored KC modestly: KC recent run differential +8, MIA +1; KC recent win percentage .600, MIA .500.
Head-to-head evidence consisted of two prior KC home losses to MIA, both listed as blowouts.
Season quality moved the score toward MIA with a margin adjustment of −0.2032.
Confidence path: raw/governor input 0.509365 → calibrated/governed 0.5271; recency guardrail was not applied.
The published pick probability was 0.547642, with no recorded transformation explaining the calibrated-to-published increase.
Score volatility: no_change.

Starters

Sandy Alcantara, MIA: projected 1 ER/19 outs; actual 4 ER/18 outs. ER error +3.
Michael Wacha, KC: projected 3 ER/19 outs; actual 3 ER/18 outs. ER error 0.
Starter identities matched.

Score path

Historical ML: MIA approximately 4.95, KC 4.03. The model retained MIA 5–4 through variance, enhancement, Savant, fundamental review, cap, and simulation. The simulation did not alter the winner or score.

Player adjustments and audit

Twenty-four material player changes were recorded. Examples include:

Michael Wacha: better, predicted strikeouts delta +5.
Craig Kimbrel: worse, predicted strikeouts delta −2.
Griffin Conine: worse, predicted AB delta +1.985.
Jakob Marsee: better, predicted doubles delta +1.878.
Agustín Ramírez: better, predicted RBI delta +1.74.
Kyle Stowers: worse, predicted strikeouts delta −1.34.

Actual player-level results were unavailable, so these adjustments cannot be validated individually. Structural audit: PASS, zero defects, seven informational findings; forecast integrity clean.

Primary cause: lean_side_miss — small edge on the losing side.
Secondary cause: starter projection, specifically Alcantara’s three-ER underprojection; KC offense was under-projected by three.
Additional artifact issue: critical probability-lineage defect, not proven to have caused the miss.

---

MIL@CHC — winner miss and largest score failure

Predicted: MIL 7, CHC 6; winner MIL.
Actual: MIL 1, CHC 2; winner CHC.
Published probability: away/MIL pick probability 0.533686; game diagnostic gives home probability 0.466.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away −0.0674; displayed edge 0.07, lean.
Brier: 0.284821.
Team-run absolute error: 10.
Total-run bias: +10.
Conviction: lean.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge: −0.1714.
Recent edge: +0.290.
Pitcher edge: −0.1494.
Composite edge: −0.5304.
Recent form showed CHC with +34 run differential and 8.6 runs scored per game despite a .400 win percentage; MIL had +9 run differential.
Confidence path: raw/governor input 0.54 → governed 0.5082 → published 0.533686.
Governor applied; recency guardrail applied.
Score volatility: no_change, despite a recent-environment total of 12.05 and low-score probability 0.5003.

Starters

Logan Henderson, MIL: projected 3 ER/18 outs; actual 2 ER/21 outs. ER error −1.
Kevin Gausman, CHC: projected 5 ER/17 outs; actual 1 ER/21 outs. ER error −4.
Identities matched.

Score path

This was the clearest score-path deterioration:

Historical ML: MIL 4.82, CHC 4.04.
Variance stage: 5–4.
Enhanced prediction: expanded to 7–6.
Savant stage retained 7–6.
Fundamental review, cap, simulation, and publication all retained 7–6.
Actual result was 1–2.

The transition from variance to enhanced prediction increased the score total by four runs while preserving the wrong MIL direction. Later stages did not recover the error.

Player adjustments and audit

Twenty-two material player changes were recorded, including:

Christian Yelich: predicted RBI delta +2.6.
David Hamilton: predicted hits delta +2.35.
William Contreras: predicted AB delta −2.13.
Kevin Gausman: neutral starter adjustment with predicted strikeouts delta +2.
Seiya Suzuki: predicted RBI delta +1.32.
Michael Busch: predicted hits delta +1.28.

Actual player-level results were unavailable.

Structural audit: WARNING, risk score 10. The concrete warning was a pitch-count mismatch for Logan Henderson: summary hits allowed 3, box score 2. It was not identified as the reason for the winner miss.

Primary cause: starter_projection; Gausman was projected for five ER and allowed one.
Secondary cause: run_environment_over; total runs were overprojected by ten.
The model also materially expanded the score at the enhanced stage without evidence that the winner direction improved.

---

OAK@SEA — strong-confidence winner miss

Predicted: OAK 4, SEA 6; winner SEA.
Actual: OAK 7, SEA 4; winner OAK.
Published probability: home/SEA 0.637251.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away +0.2745; strong.
Brier: 0.406089, worst on the slate.
Team-run absolute error: 5.
Total-run bias: −1.
Conviction: strong.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge: +0.6111.
Recent edge: +0.006.
Pitcher edge: −0.0394.
Composite edge: +0.6109.
Season quality edge was +1.05 after adjustment; season margin adjustment +0.2567.
Recent form was weak for both teams, but SEA’s recent run differential was −21 versus OAK’s −6.
Historical head-to-head listed several SEA wins, which likely reinforced the home side.
Confidence path: raw/governor input 0.62335 → governed 0.6045 → published 0.637251.
No recency guardrail was applied.
Score volatility: no_change.

Starters

Jack Perkins, OAK: projected 3 ER/12 outs; actual 3 ER/9 outs. ER error 0.
Kade Anderson, SEA: projected 3 ER/13 outs; actual 4 ER/15 outs. ER error +1.
Starter projections were broadly accurate in ER terms.

Score path

Historical ML: OAK 4.02, SEA 5.04.
Variance: 4–5.
Enhanced prediction: 4–6.
Savant and later stages retained 4–6.
Actual: 7–4 OAK.

The score and winner moved toward SEA before the later stages, and no later stage corrected that direction.

Player adjustments and audit

Twenty-six material player changes were recorded. Examples:

Cole Young: worse, predicted RBI delta +3.67.
Julio Rodríguez: worse, predicted AB delta −2.14.
Michael Stefanic: worse, predicted BB delta +1.667.
Cal Raleigh: worse, predicted AB delta −1.65.
Brian Serven: boosted, predicted RBI delta +1.31.
Lawrence Butler: worse, predicted AB delta +1.25.

Actual player-level results were unavailable. Structural audit: PASS, zero defects, seven informational findings; forecast integrity clean.

Primary cause: wrong_conviction_side — the system backed SEA with genuine conviction and lost.
Secondary cause: lean_side_miss is also recorded, but it is subordinate to the strong published confidence.
This is the slate’s clearest calibration failure and a correct-winner/wrong-score classification does not apply because the winner was wrong.

---

SF@PIT — correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: SF 5, PIT 6; winner PIT.
Actual: SF 2, PIT 5; winner PIT.
Published probability: home/PIT 0.53.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away +0.06; lean.
Brier: 0.2209.
Team-run absolute error: 4.
Total-run bias: +4.
Conviction: lean.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge: +0.3866.
Recent edge: −0.438.
Pitcher edge: +0.0199.
Composite edge: +0.3269.
Confidence path: raw/governor input 0.53 → governed 0.5082 → published 0.53.
Governor and recency guardrail applied.
Score volatility: no_change.

Starters

Blade Tidwell, SF: projected 2 ER/15 outs; actual 2 ER/15 outs. Error 0.
Lake Bachar, PIT: projected 1 ER/15 outs; actual 0 ER/7 outs. Error −1.
Identities matched.

Score path and audit

Prediction remained 5–6; actual PIT won 5–2. No player-level actuals were available. Savant adjustment applied. Structural audit: PASS, zero defects, seven informational findings; forecast integrity clean.

Primary cause: none; winner correct.
Secondary cause: SF offense overprojection and total overprojection.
This is a correct-winner/wrong-score game.

---

STL@LAD — correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: STL 4, LAD 5; winner LAD.
Actual: STL 2, LAD 3; winner LAD.
Published probability: home/LAD 0.53.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away +0.06; lean.
Brier: 0.2209.
Team-run absolute error: 4.
Total-run bias: +4.
Conviction: lean.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge: +0.8594.
Recent edge: −0.062.
Pitcher edge: +0.0015.
Composite edge: +0.6405.
Season quality edge after adjustment: +1.2424; margin adjustment +0.3609.
Confidence path: raw/governor input 0.53 → governed 0.5786 → published 0.53.
Governor and recency guardrail applied.
Diagnostic flag: large_savant_run_environment_swing.
Score volatility action: supported_blowout_margin_expansion.

Starters

Quinn Mathews, STL: projected 3 ER/14 outs; actual 1 ER/15 outs. Error −2.
Tarik Skubal, LAD: projected 0 ER/18 outs; actual 2 ER/17 outs. Error +2.
Identities matched.

Score path and audit

The system correctly selected LAD but projected a five-run total versus the actual five-run total? The predicted total was 9 and actual total 5, so total bias was +4. Structural audit: PASS, zero defects, seven informational findings; forecast-file integrity clean.

Primary cause: none; winner correct.
Secondary cause: run-environment/score-tail miss despite a supported blowout-margin expansion action.
This is a correct-winner/wrong-score game.

---

TB@TEX — winner miss

Predicted: TB 5, TEX 4; winner TB.
Actual: TB 0, TEX 6; winner TEX.
Published probability: away/TB 0.533686; game diagnostic gives home probability 0.466.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away −0.0674; lean.
Brier: 0.284821.
Team-run absolute error: 7.
Total-run bias: +3.
Conviction: lean.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge: −0.654.
Recent edge: −0.3767.
Pitcher edge: −0.0494.
Composite edge: −0.7425.
Both season and recent evidence favored TB, but actual game conditions strongly contradicted the score.
Confidence path: raw/governor input 0.49665 → governed 0.5082 → published 0.533686.
Governor and recency guardrail applied.
Score volatility: no_change; low-score probability was 0.6951.

Starters

Shane McClanahan, TB: projected 2 ER/16 outs; actual 4 ER/15 outs. Error +2.
Cal Quantrill, TEX: projected 3 ER/17 outs; actual 0 ER/21 outs. Error −3.
Identities matched.

Score path and audit

Prediction remained TB 5–4 from historical ML through publication. Actual was TB 0–TEX 6. No player-level actuals were available. Twenty-four material player changes were recorded, including Jorge Mateo, Ezequiel Duran, Cal Quantrill, Corey Seager, and others, but their actual effects cannot be validated.

Structural audit: PASS, zero defects, seven informational findings; forecast integrity clean.

Primary cause: lean_side_miss.
Secondary cause: starter projection, especially Quantrill’s three-ER overprojection and McClanahan’s two-ER underprojection.
This is not a score-only miss; the winner was wrong.

---

TOR@CLE — correct winner, wrong score

Predicted: TOR 4, CLE 3; winner TOR.
Actual: TOR 6, CLE 3; winner TOR.
Published probability: away/TOR 0.546553; game diagnostic gives home probability 0.453.
System confidence edge: home-minus-away −0.0931; lean.
Brier: 0.205614.
Team-run absolute error: 2.
Total-run bias: −2.
Conviction: lean.

Evidence edges and controls

Season edge: +0.2137.
Recent edge: +0.034.
Pitcher edge: −0.0401.
Composite edge: −0.1422.
Season quality edge below action threshold.
Confidence path: raw/governor input 0.545724 → governed 0.5439 → published 0.546553; lineage says the published value matches the calibrated/governed value.
Governor and recency guardrail applied.
Score volatility: no_change.

Starters and audit

José Soriano, TOR: projected 0 ER/18 outs; actual 3 ER/14 outs. Error +3.
Tanner Bibee, CLE: projected 3 ER/18 outs; actual 5 ER/12 outs. Error +2.
Both starter identities matched.
Structural audit: PASS, zero defects, nine informational findings; forecast-file integrity clean.

Primary cause: none; winner correct.
Secondary cause: score underprojection despite errors by both starters.
This is a correct-winner/wrong-score game.

---

4. Miss reconstruction

MIA@KC

Earliest wrong-direction stage

The historical ML stage already pointed toward the wrong result:

Historical expected score: MIA approximately 4.95, KC 4.03.
Every subsequent score stage retained MIA ahead, ending at 5–4.
No later stage changed the winner direction.

The earliest model movement toward the wrong result was therefore the historical model / pre-enhancement directional baseline, reinforced by season-quality and head-to-head treatment.

Error classification

Bad input: not established. Starter identities matched and structural audit passed.
Bad weighting: plausible. Recent-form data favored KC modestly, while season and head-to-head evidence pushed toward MIA.
Calibration: the published away probability was materially higher than the calibrated value without a recorded transformation. This is a contract failure, but causation to the miss is unproven.
Starter error: established as a material score contributor; Alcantara was three ER worse than projected.
Offense/bullpen miss: KC offense was under-projected by three. Bullpen-specific actual evidence is absent.
Run-environment miss: not primary; total was underprojected by one.
Irreducible variance: possible, especially given the lean edge and unavailable player-level actuals.

The −0.0953 home-minus-away edge was a lean, not strong conviction. It should not be interpreted as a near coin flip, but it also did not support aggressive confidence.

MIL@CHC

Earliest wrong-direction stage

Historical ML already favored MIL:

Historical score: MIL 4.82, CHC 4.04.
Variance stage retained MIL ahead at 5–4.
Enhanced prediction expanded the score to 7–6 while retaining MIL.
Savant, fundamental review, cap, simulation, and publication made no further directional change.

The first clear score-quality regression occurred at the variance-to-enhanced transition: total score rose from 9 to 13 runs, while winner direction remained wrong. The winner-direction error itself was present at historical ML.

Error classification

Bad input: one pitch-count warning exists for Henderson, but it does not explain the Gausman miss and is not proven causal.
Bad weighting: plausible; recent-form and H2H signals supported an extreme run environment despite the eventual three-run total.
Calibration: lean probability only; not the main issue.
Starter error: established and major. Gausman was projected for 5 ER and allowed 1.
Offense/bullpen miss: both offenses were overprojected; bullpen effects are not separately available.
Run-environment miss: established and dominant. The model forecast 13 total runs and actual total was 3.
Irreducible variance: possible, but the scale of the score miss is also consistent with a weak run model.

OAK@SEA

Earliest wrong-direction stage

The historical ML stage favored SEA 5.04–4.02. Variance retained SEA at 5–4, and enhancement widened SEA’s margin to 6–4. No later stage corrected it.

Thus the earliest wrong-direction evidence was the historical model, with later enhancement and season-quality weighting reinforcing the error.

Error classification

Bad input: not established. Structural audit passed.
Bad weighting: strongly plausible. Season edge and historical head-to-head favored SEA, while recent form was essentially neutral-to-negative for both teams. The model published 0.637 despite limited recent separation and a small pitcher edge against SEA.
Calibration: established as a high-confidence failure; Brier 0.406089, strong pick lost.
Starter error: not primary; Perkins was exact in ER and Anderson was only one ER worse.
Offense/bullpen miss: OAK offense was underprojected by three; bullpen/actual player effects unavailable.
Run-environment miss: secondary; total was underprojected by one, but the main problem was choosing SEA.
Irreducible variance: possible, but insufficient to explain away the conviction error.

TB@TEX

Earliest wrong-direction stage

Historical ML favored TB approximately 4.56–3.63. All stages retained TB at 5–4. No stage moved toward TEX.

The wrong direction therefore entered at the historical model, and the later controls failed to reverse it.

Error classification

Bad input: not established; structural audit passed.
Bad weighting: plausible. Season and recent edges both favored TB, but the model did not adequately represent the possibility of a TEX run/starting-pitching outcome.
Calibration: lean, not strong; no special high-confidence failure.
Starter error: established; Quantrill was three ER better than projected and McClanahan two ER worse.
Offense/bullpen miss: TB was shut out relative to five projected runs; bullpen/player actuals unavailable.
Run-environment miss: material; actual total 6 versus predicted 9, with a completely different allocation.
Irreducible variance: meaningful possibility, especially in a lean game.

Pipeline-stage audit across all stages and transitions

Stage	Winner accuracy	Winner hits	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Change versus historical
historical_ml	55.56%	5	2.0006	2.5017	2.7246	baseline
variance_applied	44.44%	4	2.0556	2.5556	2.7778	worse
enhanced_prediction	55.56%	5	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	worse
embedded_savant_run_environment	55.56%	5	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	unchanged from enhanced
fundamental_edge_target_review	55.56%	5	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	unchanged
capped_target	55.56%	5	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	unchanged
simulation_result	55.56%	5	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	unchanged
published_final	55.56%	5	2.3333	3.1111	2.8889	unchanged

Transitions:

Historical → variance: BOS moved BOS → TIE. No games improved. Winner accuracy fell by one hit, team-run MAE rose 0.055, and margin MAE rose 0.0532.
Variance → enhanced: BOS recovered TIE → BOS. No games regressed in winner direction, but team-run MAE rose 0.2777 and margin MAE rose 0.1111.
Enhanced → embedded Savant: no changes.
Embedded Savant → fundamental review: no changes.
Fundamental review → capped target: no changes.
Capped target → simulation: no changes.
Simulation → published final: no changes.

The BOS recovery does not erase the intermediate variance-stage regression. Likewise, later unchanged stages do not demonstrate that they validated the earlier score expansion. The simulation contributed no winner-direction intervention on this slate.

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5. Cross-game counterfactuals

Lever tension: widen score distributions

Lever: score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor
Helps: OAK@SEA, where a 0.27-confidence pick lost and wider tails could reduce overconfidence and better represent OAK’s upset/run outcome.
Hurts: none identified in the supplied tension entry.
Net evidence: 1 helped, 0 hurt. This supports a small, bounded shadow experiment, not a large production change. It primarily targets calibration and tail coverage; exact score MAE could improve or worsen.

Lever tension: pitcher form weights and prior games

Lever: player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games
Helps: MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, TB@TEX, TOR@CLE; starter ER errors were 3, 4, 3, and 3 respectively.
Hurts: BOS@BAL, OAK@SEA, SF@PIT; starter ER projections were accurate to within one ER and reweighting could disturb those calls.
Net evidence: 4 helped versus 3 hurt.
Net conclusion: evidence supports investigation but not aggressive reweighting. The balance is too close, and starter outcomes include substantial variance.

Lever tension: recent/season run-mean weighting

Lever: recent.* / season.* run-mean weighting
Helps: MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, TB@TEX; six games had material team-run errors where altered run-mean weighting could plausibly help.
Hurts: BOS@BAL and TOR@CLE, where team-run error was only two.
Net evidence: 6 helped versus 2 hurt.
Net conclusion: directional evidence supports review, but the near-zero run-model R² means the proper response is feature/target investigation, not simply turning a nightly weighting knob.

One-game fixes that must not be made

Do not globally reverse the historical/season-quality preference because OAK@SEA lost; that would damage games such as STL@LAD and the correct PIT/LAD/TOR calls.
Do not aggressively increase pitcher recency weight solely because Gausman, Alcantara, and Quantrill missed; BOS, OAK, and SF had comparatively accurate starter ER projections.
Do not widen all score distributions dramatically based only on MIL@CHC. The run-model issue is persistent, but the correct response is a bounded shadow test plus code/data investigation.
Do not treat MIA’s unexplained probability delta as proof that the governor was bypassed or that the away pick should have been removed until side-oriented lineage is reconciled.
Do not infer that simulation was useless merely because it produced zero flips; the evidence shows no winner intervention, not necessarily zero score-realization work.
Do not promote the slate as clean while the missing integrity revision audit and MIA lineage defect remain unresolved.

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6. Data and contract defects

Critical findings

Unexplained probability publication delta

Affected game: MIA@KC.
Calibrated probability: 0.5271.
Published pick probability: 0.547642.
Unexplained delta: 0.020542.
Transformation text: “no recorded transformation explains the publication delta.”
Required action: trace raw model → calibration → governor → score coherence/recency → published value and block promotion until reconciled.

This is a prediction-contract/evidence defect, not necessarily a model-side selection defect.

Error findings

Aggregate structural audit reports zero errors.
No per-game structural audit reported an error severity.
Therefore, there are no supplied error-level findings to enumerate.

Warning findings

MIL@CHC pitch-count mismatch

Logan Henderson’s summary reports hits allowed 3; pitching box score reports 2.
Rule: PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH.
Source: simulation.
Risk score: 10.
This is a data/audit consistency defect. It was not demonstrated to cause the prediction miss.

Aggregate artifact warning

Structural totals contain one warning.
The supplied evidence identifies the MIL mismatch as the concrete warning, but the aggregate canonical warning should be reconciled explicitly.

Missing integrity revision audit

Not marked as a structural warning in the totals, but it is a receipt and artifact-integrity gap because the manifest explicitly marks the revision-proof artifact missing.

Informational findings

Aggregate structural audit reports 68 info findings.
Per-game information counts are:
BOS: 7
CHW: 8
MIA: 7
MIL: 9
OAK: 7
SF: 7
STL: 7
TB: 7
TOR: 9
The supplied JSON does not expose the text of every informational finding, so no additional descriptions should be invented.
complete_slate_audit_coverage and simulation_inert_on_slate are explicitly informational at the slate level.

Model defects versus presentation/artifact defects

Prediction-model/process defects

Near-zero run-target holdout signal: total R² 0.026176, home 0.023403, away 0.026799.
Persistent score-margin compression: every predicted margin was 1–2 runs while actual margins included 4, 4, 4, and 6.
Simulation winner-direction intervention was inert for seven consecutive slates and requires code/diagnostic verification.
Starter projection misses were material in four games, but the one-slate lever balance is mixed.

Presentation/artifact/contract defects

MIA probability lineage lacks a recorded material transformation.
MIL pitch-count summary conflicts with the box score.
Integrity revision audit is missing.
Per-game forecast files were otherwise reported clean; these bugs are not established as causes of winner misses.

Complete pick-side probability lineage audit

The evidence provides the following chain for all nine games:

Raw model pick probability
Governor input
Calibrated/governor output
Score coherence probability
Recency guardrail state
Published pick probability
Transformation description and unexplained-delta flag

Eight games have a recorded transformation and unexplained_material_delta: false. MIA@KC is the sole material bypass/lineage exception.

Important examples:

BOS: calibrated 0.5082 → published pick 0.53, with score coherence and recency guardrail recorded.
OAK: calibrated 0.6045 → published 0.637251, explicitly attributed to score coherence alignment.
TOR: calibrated 0.5439 → published 0.546553, described as matching the calibrated/governed value.
MIA: calibrated 0.5271 → published 0.547642, with no transformation recorded.

A bypass should be called only for MIA because its material delta lacks a recorded transformation. The other deltas are documented, even where the values appear surprising.

Coverage matrix reconciliation supports complete game coverage, but not a clean slate: full structural coverage coexists with the MIA contract defect, the MIL warning, and the missing integrity revision artifact.

---

7. Cross-slate persistence

Six prior slates were loaded, forming a seven-slate window from 2026-08-28 through 2026-09-03. Persistent escalations are not single-slate noise.

Finding streaks

Finding	Consecutive-slate count	Present now?	Interpretation
high_raw_probability_cluster	0	No	Occurred in 2 of 7 slates, but not currently persistent
pipeline_winner_instability	0	No	Occurred in 3 of 7, not currently present
score_margin_compression	0	No	Occurred in 3 of 7, not currently present as a registered streak, though this slate shows the same structural symptom
simulation_inert_on_slate	7	Yes	Escalated established failure
single_slate_calibration_instability	0	No	Occurred in 5 of 7, but no current consecutive streak
weak_run_model_signal	7	Yes	Escalated established failure

The current slate independently exhibits margin compression, but the finding-streak record reports score_margin_compression with zero consecutive slates. Those two statements should not be conflated: the raw current-slate margin data show compression, while the registered streak counter does not classify it as currently persistent.

Escalated finding: simulation inertness

Streak: 7 consecutive slates.
Present now: yes.
Target lever: simulation.allow_score.
Metric group: run model.
Metrics hurt: team-run MAE and total-run MAE; also potentially winner-probability agreement diagnostics.
Direction: confirm the simulation module is running and not silently no-oping.
Evidence: seven-slate persistence; this slate had zero flip candidates and zero published flips.
Required interpretation: established code/diagnostic failure, not a parameter-tuning invitation.

The self-assessment identifies a concrete root cause: the same draws are used to search for a target-realizing play-by-play, and the loop may early-exit after finding one, with a default draw count around two. That makes the resulting win rate non-probabilistic and the flip signal vacuous. This requires operator/code action.

Escalated finding: weak run-model signal

Streak: 7 consecutive slates.
Present now: yes.
Target levers listed: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate.
Param actionable: no.
Metrics hurt: team-run MAE and total-run MAE.
Direction: investigate features and target through an isolated training backtest.
Evidence: persistent seven-slate finding plus holdout R² near zero in all run targets.

The correct action is not to blindly alter the three training hyperparameters. The registered response is a feature-contract and target investigation involving market no-vig probability where available, park/weather, bullpen rest/fatigue, and platoon-adjusted lineup quality, followed by same-fingerprint holdout comparison.

Metric trends

All directions must be stated explicitly:

Margin bias: improving. Seven-slate series mean −2.4113; current value −1.778.
Mean team-run error on losses: regressing. Mean 6.2179; series ends at 6.75.
Weighted calibration error: improving. Seven-slate mean 0.2078; current 0.1474.
Winner accuracy: flat. Seven-slate mean 0.5615; current 0.5556.
Top-confidence pick: loss streak of 3. The sequence was hit, hit, miss, hit, miss, miss, miss across the seven dates, with misses on 2026-09-01, 2026-09-02, and 2026-09-03.

The top-confidence loss streak is a material warning even though the high-raw cluster is not present this slate.

Raw structural evidence

Margin distribution: all nine predicted margins were ≤2, while three actual margins were ≥4. This confirms current compression.
Pipeline transitions: variance application regressed BOS from a winner to a tie and reduced winner accuracy; enhancement later recovered BOS but worsened run MAE. Later recovery does not erase the intermediate regression.
Calibration monitoring: current weighted absolute calibration error is still high at 0.1474; the 0.60–0.65 bucket had zero hits.
High raw cluster: 0 games at the 0.65 threshold this slate; no current cluster.
Simulation control: zero observed games with a simulation flip candidate and zero published flips; diagnostic-only status.

---

8. Adjustments for today

Recommendations are ranked by persistence and evidence strength first, then scope and regression risk.

1. Repair and independently validate the simulation path

Pattern: seven-slate persistent simulation inertness.
Registered parameter/lever: simulation.allow_score.
Recommended direction: do not numerically tune it first; confirm it is enabled and functioning. If disabled or bypassed, restore the score-realization path.
Bounded change: run an independent, unsteered probability batch of approximately 200–500 draws, or a closed-form Skellam/Poisson-difference calculation, without early exit. Keep target-realization search separate from winner-probability estimation. Register batch size.
Expected metric: improve the validity of team_run_mae/total_run_mae diagnostics and make simulation agreement/flip metrics informative; direction for winner accuracy and Brier is expected to improve, but not guaranteed.
Helps: all games where simulation could have independently challenged a compressed or wrong winner, especially MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, and TB@TEX.
Hurts/regression risk: a small risk of altering correct calls such as BOS@BAL, CHW@HOU, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, and TOR@CLE. Use a shadow gate and rollback monitor.
Action type: code/diagnostic fix, not a forced parameter move.

2. Investigate the persistent near-zero run model

Pattern: seven consecutive slates with weak run-model signal.
Registered target levers: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate.
Recommended direction: no direct hyperparameter move; the evidence explicitly marks this as not parameter-actionable.
Bounded change: add or validate feature-contract candidates—source-labelled no-vig market probability where available, park/weather environment, bullpen fatigue/rest, and platoon-adjusted lineup quality—then run an isolated same-fingerprint backtest and bump the model schema version if semantics change.
Expected metric: team-run MAE and total-run MAE should decrease; home/away/total holdout R² should increase from approximately 0.02. If they do not, roll back the feature change.
Helps: broadly MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, SF@PIT, STL@LAD, and TB@TEX, where run-score errors were material.
Hurts/regression risk: BOS@BAL and TOR@CLE currently had only two runs of team error; changes must be shadowed to ensure their score quality does not deteriorate.
Action type: operator-led code/data/backtest work. Do not force a nightly XGBoost knob adjustment.

3. Apply a small score-variance shadow increase for the strongest single-slate driver

Single-slate driver: OAK@SEA, a 0.637251 published home probability that lost, with a five-run team-score error.
Registered lever: score.variance_multiplier or, preferably for a bounded floor test, score.variance_floor.
Recommended direction: increase slightly, approximately 5% relative in shadow mode; do not make a large production jump.
Expected metric: lower high-confidence overstatement and improve Brier/calibration error; improve tail coverage and potentially reduce margin compression. Exact run MAE direction is uncertain.
Helps: OAK@SEA directly; lever-tension evidence identifies one helped game and no harmed games.
Hurts/regression risk: wider tails can reduce apparent sharpness in correct close calls such as BOS@BAL, SF@PIT, and TOR@CLE. Monitor those games and roll back if Brier or team-run MAE deteriorates.
Rationale: the high-raw-confidence cluster is not currently persistent, so this is a small shadow experiment rather than a broad confidence-cap overhaul.

4. Reconcile MIA probability lineage before any promotion

Registered issue: unexplained_probability_publication_delta.
Parameter move: none.
Action: reconstruct the pick-side math and record the exact calibrated → governor → score-coherence → recency → published transformation, including whether each value is home-side or pick-side.
Expected metric: zero unexplained material deltas and a clean probability contract.
Affected game: MIA@KC.
Risk: none from a prediction lever; the risk is continued publication of untraceable probabilities.
Promotion status: block until reconciled.

5. Do not globally reweight pitcher form today

Lever considered: player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games.
Evidence: 4 potentially helped versus 3 potentially harmed.
Reason for abstention: mixed one-slate evidence and no persistent escalated finding targeting this lever.
Next step: evaluate across a larger registered backtest, particularly starter ER MAE and outs MAE, before moving the parameter.

---

9. Bottom line

Known

The slate was 5–4, with winner accuracy 55.56%, below the walk-forward baseline of 56.03%.
Exact-score performance was weak: predicted margins were compressed to 1–2 runs, while actual margins reached 6.
Run-model holdout signal is persistently near zero: total R² 0.026176.
Four misses were MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, OAK@SEA, and TB@TEX.
OAK@SEA was the strongest single-slate calibration failure: 0.637 home probability, wrong winner, Brier 0.406089.
Starter projection errors materially contributed to MIA@KC, MIL@CHC, and TB@TEX.
Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention and this inertness has persisted for seven slates.
The probability lineage has one critical unresolved defect at MIA@KC.
Structural coverage was complete, but the slate is not artifact-clean because of the MIL warning and missing integrity revision audit.

Uncertain

Whether MIA’s unexplained publication delta changed the selected side or only reflects an unrecorded side-orientation transformation.
Whether pitcher-form reweighting would improve future starter accuracy; this slate showed 4-versus-3 mixed evidence.
Whether wider variance will improve exact-run MAE rather than only calibration and tail coverage.
The exact player-level causes of several offensive misses, because actual player-level audit data were unavailable.
Whether individual winner misses were bad weighting or irreducible game variance once the run-model and starter errors are separated.

Safest next action

The single safest action is to repair and independently verify the simulation/probability pipeline before promotion: separate score-target realization from an independently sampled winner-probability distribution, eliminate the early-exit/no-op behavior, register the draw-count parameter, and reconcile MIA’s published probability lineage. This directly addresses a seven-slate established failure and a critical evidence-contract defect without making an unvalidated global model adjustment.

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=8).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brian Serven: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Stefanic: AB current=3 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=40, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Lazaro Montes: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Brock Rodden: H current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cole Young: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SF	Blade Tidwell	2 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	0
PIT	Lake Bachar	1 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 7 outs	-1

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
SF	Blade Tidwell (Starter)	15 / 15	3.6 / 3.6	2 / 2	2 / 5	0 / 0	5 / 0	5 / 8	venue away: 1.69 vs 7.8 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (strong) · 13 prior appearances this season
SF	Trent Harris (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 6.75 (-6.75)	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1
PIT	Lake Bachar (Starter)	7 / 15	0 / 1.8	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	3 / 5	venue home: 1.23 vs 3 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (weak) · 46 prior appearances this season
PIT	Luke Weaver (Setup Man)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0
PIT	Mason Montgomery (Closer)	3 / 5	0 / 21.6 (-21.60)	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 3	1 / 1

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
SF	Rafael Devers (DH)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.73	0.34 elite	bad day
PIT	Brandon Lowe (DH)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-1.07	0.322 above average	bad day
SF	Bryce Eldridge (1B)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.78	0.357 elite	bad day
SF	Turner Hill (LF)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	-0.78	0.346 elite	bad day
PIT	Bryan Reynolds (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.78	0.36 elite	bad day
PIT	Jacob Gonzalez (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.306 average	no signal
SF	Shay Whitcomb (3B)	0 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.66	0.251 weak	good day
SF	Nate Furman (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.213 weak	—
SF	Christian Koss (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.24 weak	—
SF	Andrew Knizner (C)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.271 weak	—
PIT	Jared Triolo (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.289 below average	—
PIT	Nick Gonzales (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.327 above average	—
PIT	Jake Mangum (LF)	1 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.283 weak	—
PIT	Spencer Horwitz (1B)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.312 average	—
PIT	Oneil Cruz (CF)	1 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	0.19	0.352 elite	—
SF	Jonah Cox (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 2	-0.14	0.274 weak	—
SF	Drew Gilbert (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.328 above average	—
PIT	Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.339 above average	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.387	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.438	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.02	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.327	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.42-6.09	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.42-6.09	3-6	0.336	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-6	5-6	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PIT	Jacob Gonzalez	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.6
SF	Drew Gilbert	batter / RF	worse	predicted_BB 1.762
PIT	Jake Mangum	batter / LF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.733
SF	Nate Furman	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
SF	Shay Whitcomb	batter / 3B	better	predicted_AB 1.5
SF	Jonah Cox	batter / CF	deboosted	predicted_AB 1.5
PIT	Spencer Horwitz	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.361
PIT	Jared Triolo	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.34

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=12).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Lowe: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Rafael Flores Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Turner Hill: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Nate Furman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Koss: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	SF
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
STL	Quinn Mathews	3 ER / 14 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-2
LAD	Tarik Skubal	0 ER / 18 outs	2 ER / 17 outs	2

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
STL	Quinn Mathews (Starter)	15 / 14	1.8 / 5.79 (-3.99)	1 / 3	4 / 6	0 / 0	4 / 1	4 / 3	venue away: 6.43 vs 1.59 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (strong) · thin sample: 4 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
STL	Riley O'Brien (Closer)	1 / 5	54 / 0 (+54.00)	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0 / 2
STL	Ryne Stanek (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 2
STL	George Soriano (Setup Man)	3 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0
STL	Cade Winquest (Reliever)	3 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
LAD	Tarik Skubal (Starter)	17 / 18	3.18 / 0 (+3.18)	2 / 0	10 / 3	0 / 0	1 / 0	6 / 7	venue home: 3.53 vs 2.09 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 21 prior appearances this season
LAD	Brock Stewart (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 5	0 / 21.6 (-21.60)	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 2	0 / 3	0 / 1
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez (Setup Man)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAD	Freddie Freeman (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.374 elite	bad day
LAD	Tommy Edman (CF)	5 / 4	4 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.72	0.316 average	no signal
LAD	Teoscar Hernández (LF)	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	1.44	0.323 above average	projection too low
STL	Jordan Walker (RF)	4 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.349 elite	projection too low
LAD	Miguel Rojas (2B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.312 average	no signal
STL	Pedro Pagés (C)	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.268 weak	—
LAD	Enrique Hernández (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.267 weak	—
LAD	Kyle Tucker (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
STL	Leonardo Bernal (1B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.46	0.377 elite	—
STL	Thomas Saggese (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.311 average	—
STL	Joshua Baez (LF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.329 above average	—
STL	Iván Herrera (DH)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.333 above average	—
STL	Ramón Urías (3B)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.309 average	—
LAD	Alex Call (DH)	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.277 weak	—
LAD	Mookie Betts (SS)	3 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 0	-0.12	0.329 above average	—
STL	José Fermín (2B)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.291 below average	—
STL	Nathan Church (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.283 weak	—
LAD	Will Smith (C)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.377 elite	—

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.859	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.062	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.002	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.64	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.77-5.5	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.77-5.5	4-6	0.266	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	4-5	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Miguel Rojas	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 2.5
LAD	Will Smith	batter / C	better	predicted_SO 2.346
STL	Iván Herrera	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 2.169
STL	Cade Winquest	pitcher / Reliever	boosted	predicted_SO 2
LAD	Alex Call	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB 1.5
STL	José Fermín	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_H 1.292
STL	Pedro Pagés	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.136
STL	Thomas Saggese	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB 1.067

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Will Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2; Enrique Hernández: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alex Call: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Joshua Baez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jordan Walker: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Iván Herrera: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ramón Urías: H current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TB	Shane McClanahan	2 ER / 16 outs	4 ER / 15 outs	2
TEX	Cal Quantrill	3 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-3

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TB	Shane McClanahan (Starter)	15 / 16	7.2 / 3.38 (+3.82)	4 / 2	6 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 5	venue away: 3.91 vs 2.55 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 23 prior appearances this season
TEX	Cal Quantrill (Starter)	21 / 17	0 / 4.76 (-4.76)	0 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 1	2 / 1	5 / 4	venue home: 1.2 vs 4.1 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 28 prior appearances this season
TEX	Jakob Junis (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
TEX	Chase Silseth (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TB	Junior Caminero (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.363 elite	bad day
TEX	Justin Foscue (2B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.331 above average	bad day
TEX	Corey Seager (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.6	0.351 elite	projection too low
TB	Chandler Simpson (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.261 weak	—
TB	Jonathan Aranda (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 1	-0.47	0.35 elite	—
TB	Jorge Mateo (SS)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.303 below average	—
TB	Richie Palacios (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.305 average	—
TEX	Cody Freeman (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.231 weak	—
TEX	Logan O'Hoppe (DH)	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.264 weak	—
TEX	Brandon Nimmo (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.353 elite	—
TB	Jonny DeLuca (RF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.265 weak	—
TEX	Wyatt Langford (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.31	0.313 average	—
TEX	Elias Díaz (C)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.278 weak	—
TB	Cedric Mullins (CF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.267 weak	—
TB	Yandy Díaz (DH)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.17	0.355 elite	—
TB	Nick Fortes (C)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.277 weak	—
TEX	Ezequiel Duran (CF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.306 average	—
TEX	Jake Burger (1B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.312 average	—

Deep slate report — 20260903

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (9)

BOS@BALHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHW@HOUHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIA@KCMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIL@CHCMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

OAK@SEAMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

SF@PITHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

STL@LADHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

TB@TEXMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

TOR@CLEHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

Cross-game lever tension

score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor (widen run distributions)

player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.654	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.377	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.049	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.743	positive favors home; negative favors away

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.56-3.63	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.56-3.63	5-4	0.07	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TB	Jorge Mateo	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 2.74
TEX	Ezequiel Duran	batter / CF	better	predicted_SO 2.07
TEX	Cal Quantrill	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
TEX	Corey Seager	batter / SS	worse	predicted_RBI 1.53
TEX	Justin Foscue	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
TB	Chandler Simpson	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H -1.43
TB	Cedric Mullins	batter / CF	better	predicted_H 1.36
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.19

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=4).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yandy Díaz: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Logan O'Hoppe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.