Deep slate report 20260830

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260830.json	n/a
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260830.json	n/a
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260830.json	n/a
game artifacts	loaded	per-game model trace and structural audit source	/app/output/games	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (14)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
CRITICAL	probability_lineage	Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation 1 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta	CHW@MIN	Do thisBlock any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled. Don't concludeDo not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.
HIGH	artifact_integrity	Canonical artifact warning requires reconciliation structural audit totals: {'critical': 0, 'error': 0, 'warning': 1, 'info': 100}	slate-wide	Do thisFix the flagged stat or presentation contract before treating this slate as clean evidence. Don't concludeA warning flags a display or contract issue; it does not prove the model picked the wrong side.
HIGH	pipeline_stages	An intermediate stage materially degraded winner direction historical_ml → variance_applied changed winner accuracy by -0.1429 (-2 hits)	BAL@OAK, PIT@STL	Do thisList the exact games whose winner flipped at this stage, and keep both the before-stage and after-stage picks in the trace. Don't concludeEven if a later stage recovers the pick, this unstable step is still a risk; do not treat it as harmless.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0429/0.0253/0.0224	BAL@OAK, BOS@NYY, CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, COL@ATL, HOU@NYM, KC@CLE, LAD@DET, MIA@WAS, PHI@LAA, PIT@STL, SD@TB, SEA@TOR, TEX@MIL	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
MEDIUM	calibration	Most high-raw picks lost before/after shrinkage 1/3 games with raw pick probability ≥0.65 won	CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, PHI@LAA	Do thisTrack how often high-raw-probability picks lose across multiple slates, and keep the raw to calibrated to published lineage. Don't concludeThis one slate is not enough to justify a new per-bucket shrinkage rule.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 14/14 games structurally audited	BAL@OAK, BOS@NYY, CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, COL@ATL, HOU@NYM, KC@CLE, LAD@DET, MIA@WAS, PHI@LAA, PIT@STL, SD@TB, SEA@TOR, TEX@MIL	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	BAL@OAK, BOS@NYY, CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, COL@ATL, HOU@NYM, KC@CLE, LAD@DET, MIA@WAS, PHI@LAA, PIT@STL, SD@TB, SEA@TOR, TEX@MIL	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	3 consecutive · 3 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 3 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
weak_run_model_signal	3 consecutive · 3 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 3 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	1	1/3	yes	param
pipeline_winner_instability	1	1/3	yes	code/diagnostic
simulation_inert_on_slate	3	3/3	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	0	2/3	no	param
weak_run_model_signal	3	3/3	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	regressing	[0.4667, 0.9412, 0.5]
weighted_calibration_error	improving	[0.2179, 0.3961, 0.0693]
margin_bias	regressing	[-1.333, -1.882, -2.786]
team_run_error_on_losses	regressing	[5.0, 3.0, 7.0]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	7/14	50%	2.418	2.185	4.488
variance_applied	5/14	35.7%	2.393	2.214	4.5
enhanced_prediction	7/14	50%	2.5	1.857	4.714
embedded_savant_run_environment	7/14	50%	2.464	1.929	4.643
fundamental_edge_target_review	7/14	50%	2.464	1.929	4.643
capped_target	7/14	50%	2.464	1.929	4.643
simulation_result	7/14	50%	2.464	1.929	4.643
published_final	7/14	50%	2.464	1.929	4.643

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.1429	-2	-0.0255	0.0119	BAL@OAK: BAL → TIE; BOS@NYY: BOS → TIE; CIN@CHC: CHC → TIE; MIA@WAS: WAS → TIE; PIT@STL: PIT → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.1429	2	0.1071	0.2143	BAL@OAK: TIE → BAL; BOS@NYY: TIE → BOS; CIN@CHC: TIE → CHC; MIA@WAS: TIE → WAS; PIT@STL: TIE → PIT
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	-0.0357	-0.0714
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	0	0	0	0
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
BAL@OAK	hit	0.568	0.5662	0.5662	0.5756	0.5514	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
BOS@NYY	miss	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
CHW@MIN	miss	0.7341	0.7117	0.7117	0.7333	0.6867	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
CIN@CHC	miss	0.7597	0.7444	0.7444	0.7497	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
COL@ATL	hit	0.6332	0.6277	0.6277	0.6488	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
HOU@NYM	miss	0.5311	0.5303	0.5303	0.5576	0.5416	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
KC@CLE	hit	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
LAD@DET	hit	0.551	0.5498	0.5498	0.5674	0.5487	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
MIA@WAS	miss	0.5947	0.5913	0.5913	0.5882	0.5749	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta
PHI@LAA	hit	0.67	0.6609	0.6609	0.6655	0.6655	score_coherence aligned probability to the published score margin
PIT@STL	hit	0.5838	0.5804	0.5804	0.5827	0.5597	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SD@TB	hit	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.5337	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SEA@TOR	miss	0.5085	0.5082	0.5082	0.5466	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
TEX@MIL	miss	0.6332	0.6277	0.6277	0.6063	0.5768	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
28	3	7	3	15	-0.36	-0.29

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12
20260903	9	0.556	0.24	-0.83	4	6
20260902	15	0.333	0.72	0.30	7	6
20260901	15	0.467	1.48	1.07	9	3
20260831	12	0.667	0.83	0.08	2	7
20260830	14	0.500	—	—
20260829	17	0.941	—	—
20260828	15	0.467	—	—

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
BAL@OAK	2	3	-1
BOS@NYY	1	15	-14
CHW@MIN	3	4	-1
CIN@CHC	3	2	1
COL@ATL	3	1	2
HOU@NYM	1	3	-2
KC@CLE	1	10	-9
LAD@DET	1	5	-4
MIA@WAS	1	4	-3
PHI@LAA	3	3	0
PIT@STL	1	1	0
SD@TB	1	1	0
SEA@TOR	1	7	-6
TEX@MIL	1	3	-2

BAL@OAKHIT

Predicted: BAL 8-6 (conf -0.10, moderate)Actual: BAL 8-5Brier 0.201total bias +1

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.10 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 1; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.047, recent -0.494, pitcher -0.076, composite -1.226
confidence pipeline reached 0.566 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.449
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BAL	Chris Bassitt	5 ER / 15 outs	5 ER / 17 outs	0
OAK	Jeffrey Springs	5 ER / 12 outs	7 ER / 14 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.933 / away×1.009; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Gunnar Henderson (BAL SS): 4-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 3.56]
Christian Franklin (BAL LF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Donovan Walton (OAK 2B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Pete Alonso (BAL DH): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Coby Mayo (BAL 1B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

Chris Bassitt (BAL) threw 17 outs, 5 ER = 7.94 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-1.06 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Henry Bolte: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Brian Serven: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.308, average - a good day, not a model error
Jeff McNeil: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.307, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jeffrey Springs (OAK) threw 14 outs, 7 ER = 13.5 ERA against a projected 11.25 ERA (2.25 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 7 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Gunnar Henderson: 4-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI [+3.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.316, average - a good day, not a model error
Coby Mayo: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
BAL	Chris Bassitt (Starter)	17 / 15	7.94 / 9	5 / 5	8 / 7	1 / 1	3 / 1	4 / 5	venue away: 6.19 vs 3.29 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.93 (weak) · 15 prior appearances this season
BAL	Josh Walker (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
BAL	Yennier Cano (Setup Man)	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
OAK	Jeffrey Springs (Starter)	14 / 12	13.5 / 11.25	7 / 5	6 / 5	3 / 2	1 / 1	6 / 6	venue home: 6.71 vs 5.37 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 24 prior appearances this season
OAK	Scott Blewett (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
BAL	Gunnar Henderson (SS)	4 / 5	4 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	5 / 0	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3.56	0.316 average	no signal
BAL	Christian Franklin (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.306 average	no signal
OAK	Donovan Walton (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.331 above average	bad day
BAL	Pete Alonso (DH)	2 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 2	-0.93	0.392 elite	bad day
BAL	Coby Mayo (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.319 average	no signal
BAL	Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.343 elite	bad day
BAL	Leody Taveras (RF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.273 weak	—
BAL	Colton Cowser (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.321 above average	—
OAK	Henry Bolte (CF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.311 average	—
OAK	Carlos Cortes (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.306 average	—
OAK	Brian Serven (C)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.308 average	—
OAK	Jeff McNeil (DH)	5 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.307 average	—
OAK	Tommy White (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.298 below average	—
OAK	Alika Williams (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.245 weak	—
OAK	Lawrence Butler (RF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.31	0.324 above average	—
OAK	Zack Gelof (3B)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.19	0.316 average	—
BAL	Blaze Alexander (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.356 elite	—
BAL	Carlos Narváez (C)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.265 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.047	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.494	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.076	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.226	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.46-5	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-6	0.551	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.46-5	5-5	-0.455	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	7-6	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-6	8-6	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-6	8-6	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-6	8-6	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-6	8-6	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BAL	Carlos Narváez	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 3.89
OAK	Carlos Cortes	batter / LF	worse	predicted_RBI 2.62
BAL	Gunnar Henderson	batter / SS	deboosted	predicted_H 2.06
OAK	Zack Gelof	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.988
BAL	Pete Alonso	batter / DH	boosted	predicted_SO 1.917
BAL	Blaze Alexander	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.887
BAL	Coby Mayo	batter / 1B	better	predicted_BB 1.755
OAK	Jeff McNeil	batter / DH	better	predicted_AB 1.735

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=12).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Pete Alonso: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Narváez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=4; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Franklin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Brian Serven: AB current=3 box=4; Zack Gelof: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	OAK
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BOS@NYYMISS

Predicted: BOS 5-4 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: NYY 1-16Brier 0.281total bias -8

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 16; total bias -8
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.089, recent +0.082, pitcher -0.032, composite -0.182
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs under-projected by 8 (9 vs 17)
BOS offense over-projected by 4
NYY offense under-projected by 12
Ranger Suarez (BOS) allowed 3 more ER than projected (6 vs 3)
Will Warren (NYY) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BOS	Ranger Suarez	3 ER / 15 outs	6 ER / 16 outs	3
NYY	Will Warren	5 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-4

Decision internals: run factors home×0.97 / away×1.002; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Heliot Ramos (NYY RF): 2-for-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.06]
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY 1B): 3-for-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
José Caballero (NYY SS): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Amed Rosario (NYY 3B): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Nick Sogard (BOS 2B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]

Starter miss: Will Warren (NYY) posted 1.29 ERA vs projected 9.00 (1 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Ranger Suarez (BOS) threw 16 outs, 6 ER = 10.12 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (4.72 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 12 runs on 15 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (8 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Heliot Ramos: 2-for-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+2.06 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.326, above average - real projection error
Paul Goldschmidt: 3-for-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
José Caballero: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.28, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Will Warren (NYY) threw 21 outs, 1 ER = 1.29 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-7.71 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Trevor Story: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.251, weak - a good day, not a model error
Wilyer Abreu: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.49 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.347, elite - a good day, not a model error
Roman Anthony: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.361, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
BOS	Ranger Suarez (Starter)	16 / 15	10.12 / 5.4 (+4.72)	6 / 3	9 / 5	1 / 1	2 / 0	2 / 5	venue away: 2.67 vs 4.14 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (average) · 23 prior appearances this season
BOS	Greg Weissert (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0
NYY	Will Warren (Starter)	21 / 15	1.29 / 9 (-7.71)	1 / 5	6 / 4	0 / 1	1 / 3	7 / 4	venue home: 4.38 vs 4.45 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
NYY	Tim Hill (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
NYY	Heliot Ramos (RF)	2 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	2.06	0.326 above average	projection too low
NYY	Paul Goldschmidt (1B)	6 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.87	0.313 average	no signal
NYY	José Caballero (SS)	5 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.28 weak	good day
NYY	Amed Rosario (3B)	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1.27	0.312 average	no signal
BOS	Nick Sogard (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.26	0.327 above average	bad day
NYY	Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2B)	3 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	1.13	0.294 below average	good day
BOS	Willson Contreras (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.374 elite	bad day
BOS	Adley Rutschman (C)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.338 above average	bad day
BOS	Trevor Story (SS)	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.251 weak	good day
NYY	Luis García Jr. (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.6	0.348 elite	bad day
BOS	Wilyer Abreu (RF)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.49	0.347 elite	—
BOS	Ceddanne Rafaela (CF)	4 / 6	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.282 weak	—
BOS	Caleb Durbin (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.288 below average	—
NYY	Trent Grisham (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.337 above average	—
BOS	Roman Anthony (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.45	0.361 elite	—
NYY	Cody Bellinger (LF)	6 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.17	0.342 elite	—
BOS	Jarren Duran (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.296 below average	—
NYY	Ali Sánchez (C)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.246 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.089	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.082	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.032	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.182	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.46-3.88	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.46-3.88	4-4	-0.574	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	5-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
BOS	Ceddanne Rafaela	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.9
BOS	Jarren Duran	batter / LF	deboosted	predicted_3B 1.976
BOS	Adley Rutschman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.83
BOS	Wilyer Abreu	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.62
BOS	Trevor Story	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.59
NYY	Paul Goldschmidt	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.56
NYY	Ali Sánchez	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
NYY	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_H 1.15

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=39, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 3B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: RBI current=0 box=2; Adley Rutschman: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Willson Contreras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: AB current=6 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=2; Caleb Durbin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Sogard: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=3).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis García Jr.: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Amed Rosario: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Trent Grisham: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Caballero: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ali Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHW@MINMISS

Predicted: CHW 7-4 (conf -0.37, strong)Actual: MIN 1-5Brier 0.472total bias +5

Root cause: Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.37 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.809, recent -0.726, pitcher -0.105, composite -1.398
confidence pipeline reached 0.712 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.313
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (11 vs 6)
CHW offense over-projected by 6
Zebby Matthews (MIN) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)
committed to CHW at 0.37 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHW	Jordan Hicks	3 ER / 13 outs	3 ER / 2 outs	0
MIN	Zebby Matthews	4 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 25 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.999 / away×1.105; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Munetaka Murakami (CHW 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Walker Jenkins (MIN CF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Luke Keaschall (MIN RF): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Ryan Jeffers (MIN C): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Miguel Vargas (CHW 3B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.64]

Starter miss: Zebby Matthews (MIN) posted 1.08 ERA vs projected 6.35 (1 ER in 25 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.10, bucket strong).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Jordan Hicks (CHW) at a projected 6.23 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Luke Keaschall: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.315, average - a good day, not a model error
Ryan Jeffers: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.356, elite - real projection error
Josh Bell: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Zebby Matthews (MIN) threw 25 outs, 1 ER = 1.08 ERA against a projected 6.35 ERA (-5.27 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 7 hits (-5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Drew Romo: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.262, weak - a good day, not a model error
Sam Antonacci: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.342, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIN	Zebby Matthews (Starter)	25 / 17	1.08 / 6.35 (-5.27)	1 / 4	5 / 7	0 / 1	0 / 1	5 / 8	venue home: 3.14 vs 6.38 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.1 (strong) · 18 prior appearances this season
MIN	Jeff Hoffman (Setup Man)	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CHW	Munetaka Murakami (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	-1.73	0.35 elite	bad day
MIN	Walker Jenkins (CF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	-1.11	0.253 weak	projection too high
MIN	Luke Keaschall (RF)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.09	0.315 average	no signal
MIN	Ryan Jeffers (C)	3 / 4	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.78	0.356 elite	projection too low
CHW	Miguel Vargas (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.64	0.386 elite	bad day
CHW	Andrew Benintendi (DH)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.31 average	—
CHW	Colson Montgomery (SS)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.307 average	—
CHW	Drew Romo (C)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.262 weak	—
MIN	Kody Clemens (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.341 elite	—
MIN	Josh Bell (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.333 above average	—
MIN	Royce Lewis (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.316 average	—
MIN	Brooks Lee (3B)	4 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.46	0.274 weak	—
CHW	Sam Antonacci (2B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.45	0.342 elite	—
CHW	Braden Montgomery (RF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.329 above average	—
CHW	Tristan Peters (LF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.319 average	—
MIN	Trevor Larnach (LF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.329 above average	—
MIN	Kaelen Culpepper (SS)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.32 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.809	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.726	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.105	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.398	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.14-3.21	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-4	0.687	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.14-3.21	5-3	0.07	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	7-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-4	7-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-4	7-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-4	7-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-4	7-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIN	Royce Lewis	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 2.99
CHW	Andrew Benintendi	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.25
MIN	Ryan Jeffers	batter / C	better	predicted_H 1.64
CHW	Sam Antonacci	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB 1.544
CHW	Munetaka Murakami	batter / 1B	better	predicted_SO -1.48
MIN	Walker Jenkins	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 1.46
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / SS	better	predicted_SO -1.441
CHW	Tristan Peters	batter / LF	better	predicted_SO 1.398

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=6, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Braden Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brenton Doyle: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=9).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: AB current=5 box=4; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kaelen Culpepper: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4	MIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CIN@CHCMISS

Predicted: CHC 4-7 (conf +0.12, moderate)Actual: CIN 7-5Brier 0.314total bias -1

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.457, recent +0.702, pitcher -0.037, composite +1.435
confidence pipeline reached 0.744 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.560
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: 1 structural defect(s) on the saved artifact; see the per-game file-integrity table (this is a file check, not why the pick missed)

Quantified contributing factors

CIN offense under-projected by 3
Shota Imanaga (CHC) allowed 3 more ER than projected (6 vs 3)
committed to CHC at 0.12 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CIN	Chase Burns	4 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 17 outs	-2
CHC	Shota Imanaga	3 ER / 16 outs	6 ER / 15 outs	3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.986 / away×1.023; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Tyler Stephenson (CIN C): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.71]
Seiya Suzuki (CHC RF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Héctor Rodríguez (CIN RF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Michael Busch (CHC 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Alex Bregman (CHC 3B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.62]

Starter miss: Shota Imanaga (CHC) posted 10.80 ERA vs projected 5.06 (6 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Chase Burns (CIN) threw 17 outs, 2 ER = 3.18 ERA against a projected 6.35 ERA (-3.17 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 7 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.369, elite - real projection error
Nico Hoerner: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - a good day, not a model error
Michael Conforto: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Shota Imanaga (CHC) threw 15 outs, 6 ER = 10.8 ERA against a projected 5.06 ERA (5.74 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 4 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tyler Stephenson: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.71 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
Héctor Rodríguez: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error
Dane Myers: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
CIN	Chase Burns (Starter)	17 / 17	3.18 / 6.35 (-3.17)	2 / 4	6 / 3	1 / 2	1 / 1	7 / 5	venue away: 3.53 vs 2.09 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.99 (strong) · 25 prior appearances this season
CIN	Brock Burke (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0
CIN	Emilio Pagán (Closer)	3 / 1	9 / 81 (-72.00)	1 / 3	1 / 2	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0
CHC	Shota Imanaga (Starter)	15 / 16	10.8 / 5.06 (+5.74)	6 / 3	8 / 5	3 / 0	1 / 1	4 / 4	venue home: 3.86 vs 3.65 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (weak) · 26 prior appearances this season
CHC	Jacob Webb (Closer)	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
CHC	Trent Thornton (Setup Man)	3 / 3	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CIN	Tyler Stephenson (C)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.71	0.335 above average	projection too low
CHC	Seiya Suzuki (RF)	5 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.339 above average	bad day
CIN	Héctor Rodríguez (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.93	0.275 weak	good day
CHC	Michael Busch (1B)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	4 / 1	-0.8	0.328 above average	bad day
CHC	Alex Bregman (3B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.62	0.318 average	no signal
CIN	Dane Myers (CF)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.6	0.311 average	no signal
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	5 / 6	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 2	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.369 elite	projection too low
CIN	Sal Stewart (1B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.351 elite	—
CIN	Edwin Arroyo (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.291 below average	—
CIN	Matt McLain (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.307 average	—
CHC	Nico Hoerner (SS)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.324 above average	—
CHC	Michael Conforto (DH)	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.333 above average	—
CHC	Pedro Ramirez (2B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.293 below average	—
CHC	Ian Happ (LF)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.16	0.313 average	—
CIN	Elly De La Cruz (SS)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.364 elite	—
CIN	Eugenio Suárez (DH)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 2	0	0.29 below average	—
CIN	JJ Bleday (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.349 elite	—
CHC	Miguel Amaya (C)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.289 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.457	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.702	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.037	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.435	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.25-4.46	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-7	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.25-4.46	4-4	-0.217	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-7	3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-7	4-7	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-7	4-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-7	4-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-7	4-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CIN	Chase Burns	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 3
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.28
CIN	Eugenio Suárez	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.12
CIN	Emilio Pagán	pitcher / Closer	worse	predicted_H 2
CHC	Michael Busch	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB -1.92
CHC	Alex Bregman	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.84
CHC	Michael Conforto	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.78
CHC	Miguel Amaya	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 1.7

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
warning	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count row for Chase Burns differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2; batters_faced/BF: summary=21, box=20.	CIN Chase Burns
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=2, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=6 box=4, H current=2 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Amaya: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=3, sim=4).	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dane Myers: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Edwin Arroyo: R current=0 box=1; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4	CIN
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

COL@ATLHIT

Predicted: ATL 3-6 (conf +0.16, moderate)Actual: ATL 2-3Brier 0.176total bias +4

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.16 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.711, recent +1.134, pitcher -0.020, composite +1.721
confidence pipeline reached 0.628 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.580
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (9 vs 5)
ATL offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
COL	Mason Adams	4 ER / 11 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	-2
ATL	Tyler Mahle	3 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 20 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.992 / away×1.012; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Sean Murphy (ATL C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.95]
Hunter Goodman (COL DH): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Willi Castro (COL 3B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL RF): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]

Starter miss: Mason Adams (COL) posted 3.60 ERA vs projected 9.82 (2 ER in 15 outs). Thin prior record (1 prior appearances this season): high projection uncertainty.

What to do: Reduce game confidence for starters the feed has little on (scale by prior appearances); prefer priors and validate any run-param change in shadow.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Mason Adams (COL) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 9.82 ERA (-6.22 ERA error) only 1 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 10 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Sean Murphy: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.95 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.275, weak - a good day, not a model error
Ronald Acuña Jr.: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.362, elite - real projection error
Mauricio Dubón: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Tyler Mahle (ATL) threw 20 outs, 1 ER = 1.35 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-3.41 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jake McCarthy: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
COL	Mason Adams (Starter)	15 / 11	3.6 / 9.82 (-6.22)	2 / 4	5 / 4	1 / 1	2 / 1	5 / 4	opp run factor 0.99 (strong) · thin sample: 1 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
ATL	Tyler Mahle (Starter)	20 / 17	1.35 / 4.76 (-3.41)	1 / 3	5 / 6	1 / 1	0 / 2	9 / 4	venue home: 2.53 vs 6.16 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 22 prior appearances this season
ATL	Dylan Lee (Setup Man)	3 / 3	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
ATL	Raisel Iglesias (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
ATL	Matt Olson (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.355 elite	bad day
ATL	Sean Murphy (C)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.95	0.275 weak	good day
COL	Hunter Goodman (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.324 above average	bad day
COL	Willi Castro (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.309 average	no signal
ATL	Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)	3 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.8	0.362 elite	projection too low
ATL	Michael Harris II (CF)	4 / 5	1 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.78	0.341 elite	bad day
COL	TJ Rumfield (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.334 above average	bad day
COL	Jake McCarthy (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.62	0.319 average	no signal
ATL	Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.216 weak	—
COL	Connor Norby (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.301 below average	—
ATL	Mauricio Dubón (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.302 below average	—
ATL	Austin Riley (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.298 below average	—
ATL	Drake Baldwin (DH)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	0.14	0.367 elite	—
COL	Troy Johnston (RF)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.329 above average	—
COL	Brett Sullivan (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.286 below average	—
COL	Mickey Moniak (LF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.281 weak	—
COL	Ryan Ritter (SS)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.21 weak	—
ATL	Ozzie Albies (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.284 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.711	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.134	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.02	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.721	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.49-5.02	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-5	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.49-5.02	3-5	0.474	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-5	3-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-5	3-6	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-6	3-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-6	3-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-6	3-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ATL	Drake Baldwin	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 3.402
COL	Troy Johnston	batter / RF	worse	predicted_2B 1.75
ATL	Ha-Seong Kim	batter / SS	worse	predicted_H 1.68
COL	Connor Norby	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.59
COL	Ryan Ritter	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
COL	Jake McCarthy	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.296
ATL	Sean Murphy	batter / C	worse	predicted_H -1.17
ATL	Mauricio Dubón	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H -1.13

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=32; H: current=10, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=4).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=1, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Hunter Goodman: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Troy Johnston: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Sullivan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	COL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

HOU@NYMMISS

Predicted: NYM 4-5 (conf +0.08, lean)Actual: HOU 6-3Brier 0.293total bias +0

Root cause: Small edge on the losing side

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.08 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.093, recent -0.068, pitcher -0.005, composite +0.102
confidence pipeline reached 0.530 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.542
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
HOU	Ethan Pecko	4 ER / 11 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	-2
NYM	Zac Thornton	0 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×0.984 / away×0.989; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Yordan Alvarez (HOU LF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Nick Allen (HOU 3B): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Bo Bichette (NYM 3B): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Jeremy Peña (HOU SS): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]
Luis Robert Jr. (NYM LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Ethan Pecko (HOU) posted 3.60 ERA vs projected 9.82 (2 ER in 15 outs). Thin prior record (2 prior appearances this season): high projection uncertainty.

What to do: Reduce game confidence for starters the feed has little on (scale by prior appearances); prefer priors and validate any run-param change in shadow.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Ethan Pecko (HOU) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 9.82 ERA (-6.22 ERA error) only 2 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Bo Bichette: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.325, above average - real projection error
A.J. Ewing: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Francisco Lindor: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.338, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Zac Thornton (NYM) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (3.6 ERA error) only 10 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nick Allen: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.252, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jeremy Peña: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.326, above average - real projection error
Yainer Diaz: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
HOU	Ethan Pecko (Starter)	15 / 11	3.6 / 9.82 (-6.22)	2 / 4	3 / 2	2 / 2	2 / 2	4 / 3	venue away: 10.38 vs 4.91 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · thin sample: 2 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
HOU	Bryan Abreu (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1
HOU	Josh Hader (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1
HOU	Steven Okert (Setup Man)	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 3
NYM	Zac Thornton (Starter)	15 / 17	3.6 / 0 (+3.60)	2 / 0	6 / 2	1 / 0	0 / 1	5 / 6	venue home: 2.83 vs 2.95 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 10 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
HOU	Yordan Alvarez (LF)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.45 elite	bad day
HOU	Nick Allen (3B)	4 / 3	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.25	0.252 weak	good day
NYM	Bo Bichette (3B)	3 / 5	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.325 above average	projection too low
HOU	Jeremy Peña (SS)	5 / 5	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.09	0.326 above average	projection too low
NYM	Luis Robert Jr. (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.321 above average	bad day
NYM	Jared Young (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.78	0.309 average	no signal
NYM	A.J. Ewing (CF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.317 average	no signal
NYM	Francisco Lindor (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.6	0.338 above average	projection too low
HOU	Isaac Paredes (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	-0.47	0.32 average	—
HOU	Daulton Varsho (CF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.292 below average	—
NYM	Carson Benge (RF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.336 above average	—
NYM	Luis Torrens (C)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.297 below average	—
HOU	Yainer Diaz (C)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.31	0.304 below average	—
HOU	Jose Altuve (2B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.272 weak	—
NYM	Marcus Semien (2B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.305 average	—
HOU	Christian Walker (1B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.3 below average	—
HOU	Cam Smith (RF)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.319 average	—
NYM	Juan Soto (DH)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.416 elite	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.093	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.068	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.005	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.102	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.27-5.94	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.542	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.27-5.94	3-6	0.328	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-6	4-5	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYM	Luis Robert Jr.	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.574
HOU	Jeremy Peña	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.71
NYM	Bo Bichette	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.63
NYM	Francisco Lindor	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.61
HOU	Nick Allen	batter / 3B	better	predicted_AB 1.5
NYM	Luis Torrens	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 1.37
NYM	Jared Young	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB -1.35
HOU	Yordan Alvarez	batter / LF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.301

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Walker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Allen: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=5).	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=27; H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	NYM
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

KC@CLEHIT

Predicted: CLE 5-6 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: CLE 1-11Brier 0.221total bias -1

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 9; total bias -1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.155, recent -0.586, pitcher +0.085, composite +0.305
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

KC offense over-projected by 4
CLE offense under-projected by 5
Seth Lugo (KC) allowed 7 more ER than projected (9 vs 2)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
KC	Seth Lugo	2 ER / 16 outs	9 ER / 11 outs	7
CLE	Parker Messick	2 ER / 18 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.064 / away×0.979; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Chase DeLauter (CLE RF): 4-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.03]
Nathaniel Lowe (CLE 1B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC SS): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Travis Bazzana (CLE 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
José Ramírez (CLE DH): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.09]

Starter miss: Seth Lugo (KC) posted 22.09 ERA vs projected 3.38 (9 ER in 11 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (5.35 ERA there vs 4.01 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Seth Lugo (KC) threw 11 outs, 9 ER = 22.09 ERA against a projected 3.38 ERA (18.71 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 10 runs on 13 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (5 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Chase DeLauter: 4-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+2.03 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.343, elite - real projection error
Nathaniel Lowe: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
José Ramírez: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI [+1.09 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Parker Messick (CLE) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (-1.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Kyle Isbel: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.264, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jac Caglianone: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.357, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
KC	Seth Lugo (Starter)	11 / 16	22.09 / 3.38 (+18.71)	9 / 2	9 / 8	2 / 0	2 / 2	2 / 5	venue away: 5.35 vs 4.01 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.06 (weak) · 27 prior appearances this season
CLE	Parker Messick (Starter)	18 / 18	1.5 / 3	1 / 2	5 / 3	0 / 1	2 / 1	5 / 6	venue home: 2.83 vs 2.25 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
CLE	Cade Smith (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	3 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
CLE	Chase DeLauter (RF)	4 / 5	4 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2.03	0.343 elite	projection too low
CLE	Nathaniel Lowe (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.335 above average	projection too low
KC	Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.383 elite	bad day
CLE	Travis Bazzana (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.299 below average	projection too high
CLE	José Ramírez (DH)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.09	0.335 above average	projection too low
KC	Carter Jensen (C)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.93	0.304 below average	projection too high
CLE	Steven Kwan (CF)	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.78	0.321 above average	projection too low
CLE	Jo Adell (LF)	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.65	0.325 above average	projection too low
CLE	Austin Hedges (C)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.275 weak	—
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.325 above average	—
KC	Kyle Isbel (CF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.264 weak	—
KC	Jac Caglianone (RF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.31	0.357 elite	—
KC	John Rave (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	-0.14	0.324 above average	—
CLE	Angel Genao (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	-0.14	0.297 below average	—
KC	Salvador Perez (DH)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.308 average	—
KC	Tyler Tolbert (2B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.296 below average	—
KC	Nick Loftin (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.297 below average	—
CLE	Brayan Rocchio (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.292 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.155	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.586	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.085	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.305	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.94-5.61	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.94-5.61	4-6	0.327	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	5-6	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-6	5-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-6	5-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-6	5-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
KC	Kyle Isbel	batter / CF	worse	predicted_RBI 2.55
CLE	Jo Adell	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.398
CLE	Parker Messick	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
CLE	Cade Smith	pitcher / Closer	worse	predicted_SO -2
KC	Bobby Witt Jr.	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.8
CLE	Steven Kwan	batter / CF	better	predicted_SO 1.587
KC	Jac Caglianone	batter / RF	worse	predicted_H -1.58
CLE	Austin Hedges	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 1.41

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=14; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=6).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=6).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Tyler Tolbert: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	KC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAD@DETHIT

Predicted: LAD 4-3 (conf -0.10, lean)Actual: LAD 6-1Brier 0.204total bias +0

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.10 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.749, recent -0.724, pitcher -0.144, composite -1.091
confidence pipeline reached 0.550 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.451
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAD	Tyler Glasnow	3 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 21 outs	-2
DET	Framber Valdez	3 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.968 / away×1.112; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Shohei Ohtani (LAD DH): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Teoscar Hernández (LAD LF): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Dillon Dingler (DET C): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Freddie Freeman (LAD 1B): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Max Clark (DET CF): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Tyler Glasnow (LAD) posted 1.29 ERA vs projected 4.76 (1 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) threw 21 outs, 1 ER = 1.29 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-3.47 ERA error) only 8 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 2 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Framber Valdez (DET) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-0.9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Teoscar Hernández: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Freddie Freeman: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.374, elite - real projection error
Ben Rortvedt: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.204, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
LAD	Tyler Glasnow (Starter)	21 / 17	1.29 / 4.76 (-3.47)	1 / 3	2 / 8	0 / 1	1 / 2	6 / 6	venue away: 2.33 vs 4.08 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (average) · 8 prior appearances this season
DET	Framber Valdez (Starter)	18 / 15	4.5 / 5.4	3 / 3	6 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	5 / 2	venue home: 4.32 vs 4.38 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.11 (strong) · 26 prior appearances this season
DET	Kyle Finnegan (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 6	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
LAD	Shohei Ohtani (DH)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.401 elite	bad day
LAD	Teoscar Hernández (LF)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.323 above average	projection too low
DET	Dillon Dingler (C)	2 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-1.07	0.344 elite	bad day
LAD	Freddie Freeman (1B)	2 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	0.8	0.374 elite	projection too low
DET	Max Clark (CF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.321 above average	bad day
DET	Javier Báez (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.258 weak	projection too high
DET	Kevin McGonigle (3B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.64	0.35 elite	bad day
LAD	Tommy Edman (2B)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.316 average	—
LAD	Ben Rortvedt (C)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.204 weak	—
LAD	Kyle Tucker (RF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
DET	Colt Keith (1B)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.335 above average	—
DET	Gleyber Torres (2B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.327 above average	—
LAD	Mookie Betts (SS)	5 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.329 above average	—
DET	Hao-Yu Lee (DH)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.301 below average	—
LAD	Miguel Rojas (3B)	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0	0.312 average	—
LAD	Enrique Hernández (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.267 weak	—
DET	Brett Callahan (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.342 elite	—
DET	Zach McKinstry (RF)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.282 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.749	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.724	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.144	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.091	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.93-3.04	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-3	0.549	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.93-3.04	5-3	0.108	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	4-3	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-3	4-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-3	4-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-3	4-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-3	4-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
DET	Dillon Dingler	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI 2.48
DET	Zach McKinstry	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.448
DET	Colt Keith	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 2.149
LAD	Enrique Hernández	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 1.688
LAD	Kyle Tucker	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.66
LAD	Miguel Rojas	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
DET	Brett Callahan	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
LAD	Freddie Freeman	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB -1.28

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=9).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Gleyber Torres: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: BB current=0 box=1; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=3; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Báez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=4).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0; Ben Rortvedt: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	LAD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIA@WASMISS

Predicted: WAS 3-4 (conf +0.15, moderate)Actual: MIA 6-2Brier 0.331total bias -1

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.15 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias -1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.064, recent +0.074, pitcher +0.022, composite +0.282
confidence pipeline reached 0.591 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.575
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

MIA offense under-projected by 3
committed to WAS at 0.15 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIA	Janson Junk	2 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 14 outs	-1
WAS	Andrew Alvarez	0 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.031 / away×1.008; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Andrés Chaparro (WAS 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
CJ Abrams (WAS 2B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Jorbit Vivas (WAS 3B): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Heriberto Hernández (MIA LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Otto Lopez (MIA SS): 1-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Janson Junk (MIA) threw 14 outs, 1 ER = 1.93 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (-1.67 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jorbit Vivas: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.298, below average - a good day, not a model error
Nasim Nuñez: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.267, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Andrew Alvarez (WAS) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Otto Lopez: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - real projection error
Esteury Ruiz: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
MIA	Janson Junk (Starter)	14 / 15	1.93 / 3.6	1 / 2	4 / 5	0 / 1	2 / 3	2 / 6	venue away: 5.12 vs 3.68 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (strong) · 20 prior appearances this season
MIA	Calvin Faucher (Closer)	4 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
WAS	Andrew Alvarez (Starter)	18 / 15	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 2	6 / 8	venue home: 4.07 vs 3.48 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 20 prior appearances this season
WAS	Clayton Beeter (Closer)	6 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	3 / 0
WAS	Tom Cosgrove (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 2	40.5 / 13.5 (+27.00)	3 / 1	1 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
WAS	Andrés Chaparro (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.26	0.354 elite	bad day
WAS	CJ Abrams (2B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.11	0.328 above average	bad day
WAS	Jorbit Vivas (3B)	2 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	1.11	0.298 below average	good day
MIA	Heriberto Hernández (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	3 / 1	-1.07	0.353 elite	bad day
MIA	Otto Lopez (SS)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.93	0.324 above average	projection too low
MIA	Esteury Ruiz (RF)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.292 below average	good day
MIA	Javier Sanoja (3B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.78	0.287 below average	projection too high
WAS	Nasim Nuñez (SS)	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.267 weak	good day
MIA	Xavier Edwards (2B)	1 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.313 average	—
MIA	Jakob Marsee (CF)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.305 average	—
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz (DH)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.294 below average	—
WAS	Dylan Crews (RF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.307 average	—
WAS	Daylen Lile (LF)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.31	0.329 above average	—
MIA	Agustín Ramírez (DH)	5 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.14	0.275 weak	—
MIA	Leo Jiménez (1B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.314 average	—
WAS	Harry Ford (C)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.264 weak	—
MIA	Brian Navarreto (C)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.167 weak	—
WAS	Jacob Young (CF)	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.319 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.064	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.074	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.022	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.282	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.2-5.24	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.575	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.2-5.24	5-5	-0.04	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	3-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
WAS	Daylen Lile	batter / LF	better	predicted_H 2.04
MIA	Javier Sanoja	batter / 3B	better	predicted_2B 1.738
WAS	Andrés Chaparro	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_BB 1.71
MIA	Jakob Marsee	batter / CF	deboosted	predicted_AB -1.6
MIA	Esteury Ruiz	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
WAS	Dylan Crews	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.47
MIA	Otto Lopez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.439
MIA	Xavier Edwards	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO 1.425

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=10).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Agustín Ramírez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Brian Navarreto: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: CJ Abrams: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PHI@LAAHIT

Predicted: PHI 5-2 (conf -0.33, strong)Actual: PHI 5-2Brier 0.112total bias +0

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.33 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 0; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.953, recent -1.134, pitcher +0.006, composite -1.334
confidence pipeline reached 0.661 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.335
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (2 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PHI	Zack Wheeler	1 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	0
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi	5 ER / 13 outs	2 ER / 21 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×0.995 / away×0.988; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

J.T. Realmuto (PHI C): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Oswald Peraza (LAA SS): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.27]
Edmundo Sosa (PHI 3B): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Kyle Schwarber (PHI DH): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Christian Moore (LAA 2B): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]

Starter miss: Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) posted 2.57 ERA vs projected 10.38 (2 ER in 21 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Zack Wheeler (PHI) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 1.69 ERA (-0.19 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 4 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Oswald Peraza: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.27 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.271, weak - a good day, not a model error
Wade Meckler: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) threw 21 outs, 2 ER = 2.57 ERA against a projected 10.38 ERA (-7.81 ERA error) only 8 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 2 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

J.T. Realmuto: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.323, above average - real projection error
Edmundo Sosa: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - real projection error
Trea Turner: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.294, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
PHI	Zack Wheeler (Starter)	18 / 16	1.5 / 1.69	1 / 1	4 / 4	0 / 0	3 / 3	6 / 6	venue away: 3.53 vs 3.23 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (weak) · 22 prior appearances this season
PHI	Orion Kerkering (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 5	6.75 / 0 (+6.75)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi (Starter)	21 / 13	2.57 / 10.38 (-7.81)	2 / 5	6 / 6	2 / 1	1 / 0	6 / 5	venue home: 3.27 vs 7.56 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (average) · 8 prior appearances this season
LAA	José Fermin (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0 / 0

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
PHI	J.T. Realmuto (C)	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.73	0.323 above average	projection too low
LAA	Oswald Peraza (SS)	3 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.27	0.271 weak	good day
PHI	Edmundo Sosa (3B)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.333 above average	projection too low
PHI	Kyle Schwarber (DH)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.93	0.365 elite	bad day
LAA	Christian Moore (2B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 2	-0.93	0.238 weak	projection too high
LAA	Wade Meckler (LF)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.78	0.312 average	no signal
PHI	Bryan De La Cruz (LF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.281 weak	—
LAA	Denzer Guzman (3B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.266 weak	—
PHI	Trea Turner (SS)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.294 below average	—
LAA	Mike Trout (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.376 elite	—
PHI	Alec Bohm (1B)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	-0.14	0.323 above average	—
PHI	Bryce Harper (RF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.393 elite	—
LAA	Josh Lowe (RF)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.29 below average	—
PHI	Bryson Stott (2B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.02	0.327 above average	—
PHI	Derek Hill (CF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
LAA	Vaughn Grissom (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.316 average	—
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros (C)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.291 below average	—
LAA	Jose Siri (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.307 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.953	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.134	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.006	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.334	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.68-2.63	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	0.665	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-2	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-2	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-2	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-2	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.68-2.63	5-3	-0.048	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	5-3	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	5-2	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-2	5-2	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-2	5-2	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-2	5-2	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PHI	Bryce Harper	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 2.425
LAA	Wade Meckler	batter / LF	worse	predicted_SO 2.254
PHI	Zack Wheeler	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	pitcher / Setup Man	worse	predicted_SO -2
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros	batter / C	worse	predicted_2B 1.887
LAA	Christian Moore	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.67
LAA	Mike Trout	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB -1.615
LAA	Jose Siri	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=9).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2; Jose Siri: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Bryan De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	PHI
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PIT@STLHIT

Predicted: PIT 5-4 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: PIT 5-4Brier 0.194total bias +0

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 0; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.302, recent -0.446, pitcher +0.056, composite -0.335
confidence pipeline reached 0.580 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PIT	Braxton Ashcraft	0 ER / 19 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	2
STL	Matthew Liberatore	2 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 17 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×1.014 / away×0.958; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jordan Walker (STL RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Jared Triolo (PIT SS): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.26]
Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Thomas Saggese (STL SS): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Bryan Torres (STL LF): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]

Starter miss: Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) posted 3.60 ERA vs projected 0.00 (2 ER in 15 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Thomas Saggese: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Bryan Torres: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.301, below average - a good day, not a model error
Iván Herrera: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.333, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Matthew Liberatore (STL) threw 17 outs, 3 ER = 4.76 ERA against a projected 3.6 ERA (1.16 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 1 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jared Triolo: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.26 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error
Brandon Lowe: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.322, above average - real projection error
Esmerlyn Valdez: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.6 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
PIT	Braxton Ashcraft (Starter)	15 / 19	3.6 / 0 (+3.60)	2 / 0	6 / 4	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 9	venue away: 3.7 vs 3.59 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
PIT	Luke Weaver (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1
PIT	Mason Montgomery (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1
STL	Matthew Liberatore (Starter)	17 / 15	4.76 / 3.6	3 / 2	6 / 5	2 / 0	2 / 1	9 / 6	venue home: 5.97 vs 4.93 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (strong) · 26 prior appearances this season
STL	Ryne Stanek (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	1 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
STL	Jordan Walker (RF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.73	0.349 elite	bad day
PIT	Jared Triolo (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1.26	0.289 below average	good day
PIT	Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-1.07	0.339 above average	bad day
STL	Thomas Saggese (SS)	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.311 average	no signal
STL	Bryan Torres (LF)	2 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.301 below average	good day
PIT	Brandon Lowe (2B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.322 above average	projection too low
PIT	Esmerlyn Valdez (RF)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.6	0.331 above average	projection too low
STL	Nolan Gorman (DH)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.275 weak	—
STL	Nathan Church (CF)	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.283 weak	—
STL	Iván Herrera (C)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.45	0.333 above average	—
STL	Ramón Urías (3B)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.309 average	—
PIT	Oneil Cruz (DH)	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.31	0.352 elite	—
STL	Alec Burleson (1B)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.31	0.37 elite	—
PIT	Bryan Reynolds (LF)	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.17	0.36 elite	—
PIT	Spencer Horwitz (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.312 average	—
PIT	Nick Yorke (3B)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.289 below average	—
PIT	Jake Mangum (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.283 weak	—
STL	José Fermín (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.291 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.302	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.446	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.056	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.335	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.22-3.59	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.22-3.59	4-4	-0.637	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	5-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
STL	Thomas Saggese	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 3.852
PIT	Spencer Horwitz	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 2.12
STL	Iván Herrera	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 2.105
PIT	Jared Triolo	batter / SS	better	predicted_AB 1.9
PIT	Nick Yorke	batter / 3B	better	predicted_H 1.77
PIT	Esmerlyn Valdez	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.525
STL	Nathan Church	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.346
PIT	Brandon Lowe	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO -1.315

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=10).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jared Triolo: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Esmerlyn Valdez: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Rafael Flores Jr.: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: SO current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Yorke: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jake Mangum: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=2; Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Ramón Urías: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Jordan Walker: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SD@TBHIT

Predicted: TB 3-4 (conf +0.07, lean)Actual: TB 4-5Brier 0.217total bias -2

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.07 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.285, recent +0.390, pitcher +0.087, composite +0.626
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.534
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SD	Robbie Ray	1 ER / 17 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	0
TB	Drew Rasmussen	2 ER / 18 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.031 / away×0.944; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jackson Merrill (SD CF): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Jonny DeLuca (TB CF): 1-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.62]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Robbie Ray (SD) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 1.59 ERA (-0.09 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jonny DeLuca: 1-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.265, weak - a good day, not a model error
Junior Caminero: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.363, elite - a good day, not a model error
Jorge Mateo: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.303, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Drew Rasmussen (TB) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (0 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 5 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Xander Bogaerts: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - a good day, not a model error
Ty France: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.331, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
SD	Robbie Ray (Starter)	18 / 17	1.5 / 1.59	1 / 1	3 / 4	1 / 0	3 / 1	4 / 6	venue away: 4.24 vs 2.72 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 26 prior appearances this season
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
SD	Mason Miller (Closer)	3 / 3	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0
SD	Adrian Morejon (Setup Man)	3 / 1	0 / 27 (-27.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1
TB	Drew Rasmussen (Starter)	18 / 18	3 / 3	2 / 2	4 / 4	0 / 2	2 / 2	6 / 6	venue home: 3.24 vs 2.69 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.94 (average) · 25 prior appearances this season
TB	Bryan Baker (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 2	1 / 0
TB	Tyler Wells (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 2

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
SD	Jackson Merrill (CF)	5 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.93	0.336 above average	bad day
SD	Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.374 elite	bad day
TB	Jonny DeLuca (CF)	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.62	0.265 weak	good day
SD	Jake Cronenworth (2B)	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.272 weak	—
SD	Xander Bogaerts (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0.47	0.321 above average	—
TB	Junior Caminero (3B)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0.47	0.363 elite	—
TB	Taylor Walls (SS)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.249 weak	—
SD	Ty France (1B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.331 above average	—
TB	Jonathan Aranda (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.35 elite	—
TB	Jorge Mateo (2B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.303 below average	—
TB	Ryan Vilade (RF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.334 above average	—
TB	Chandler Simpson (LF)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.261 weak	—
SD	Manny Machado (3B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.333 above average	—
TB	Yandy Díaz (DH)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.355 elite	—
TB	Nick Fortes (C)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.277 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.285	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.39	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.087	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.626	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.19-4.78	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3-4	0.534	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.19-4.78	4-5	0.416	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	3-4	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3-4	3-4	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3-4	3-4	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3-4	3-4	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3-4	3-4	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TB	Junior Caminero	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 2.216
SD	Ty France	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 2.04
SD	Robbie Ray	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
SD	Adrian Morejon	pitcher / Setup Man	worse	predicted_SO -2
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 1.97
TB	Jonathan Aranda	batter / 1B	better	predicted_2B 1.84
TB	Ryan Vilade	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.83
SD	Luis Campusano	batter / C	worse	predicted_BB 1.549

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ty France: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: BB current=1 box=2; Xander Bogaerts: SO current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, SO current=1 box=3, HBP current=0 box=1	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Vilade: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jorge Mateo: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Taylor Walls: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SEA@TORMISS

Predicted: SEA 5-4 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: TOR 0-7Brier 0.281total bias +2

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.118, recent +0.242, pitcher -0.094, composite -0.261
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

SEA offense over-projected by 5
TOR offense under-projected by 3
Max Scherzer (TOR) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SEA	Logan Gilbert	1 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	2
TOR	Max Scherzer	4 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-4

Decision internals: run factors home×0.987 / away×1.081; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Alejandro Kirk (TOR C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Randy Arozarena (SEA LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Brett Bateman (TOR CF): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.97]
Cal Raleigh (SEA C): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
J.P. Crawford (SEA SS): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Max Scherzer (TOR) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 7.71 (0 ER in 21 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (7.59 ERA there vs 6.00 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Logan Gilbert (SEA) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 1.5 ERA (3.9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 10 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Alejandro Kirk: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error
Brett Bateman: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.97 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.282, weak - a good day, not a model error
Andrés Giménez: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.269, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

HOME pitching

Max Scherzer (TOR) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 7.71 ERA (-7.71 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 1 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
SEA	Logan Gilbert (Starter)	15 / 18	5.4 / 1.5 (+3.90)	3 / 1	6 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 1	4 / 6	venue away: 2.49 vs 3.98 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.99 (weak) · 26 prior appearances this season
TOR	Max Scherzer (Starter)	21 / 14	0 / 7.71 (-7.71)	0 / 4	1 / 7	0 / 1	1 / 2	10 / 4	venue home: 7.59 vs 6 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.08 (weak) · 12 prior appearances this season
TOR	Spencer Miles (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TOR	Alejandro Kirk (C)	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.302 below average	good day
SEA	Randy Arozarena (LF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.11	0.349 elite	bad day
TOR	Brett Bateman (CF)	2 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.97	0.282 weak	good day
SEA	Cal Raleigh (C)	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	-0.95	0.315 average	no signal
SEA	J.P. Crawford (SS)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.327 above average	bad day
SEA	Dominic Canzone (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.356 elite	—
SEA	Julio Rodríguez (CF)	4 / 5	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.336 above average	—
SEA	Taylor Ward (RF)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.333 above average	—
SEA	Josh Naylor (1B)	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.313 average	—
TOR	Charles McAdoo (2B)	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.269 weak	—
TOR	Andrés Giménez (SS)	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.269 weak	—
TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.333 above average	—
SEA	Cole Young (2B)	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.316 average	—
TOR	George Springer (DH)	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.14	0.306 average	—
TOR	Myles Straw (LF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.02	0.296 below average	—
SEA	Brock Rodden (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.231 weak	—
TOR	Nathan Lukes (RF)	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.287 below average	—
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.319 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.118	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.242	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.094	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.261	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.14-2.51	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.14-2.51	5-3	-0.63	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	5-4	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TOR	Andrés Giménez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 2.317
SEA	Cole Young	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 1.61
TOR	George Springer	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 1.38
SEA	Josh Naylor	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_H -1.3
SEA	Taylor Ward	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 1.048
TOR	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_H 1.03
SEA	Logan Gilbert	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 1
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	pitcher / Closer	worse	predicted_SO -1

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=35; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Taylor Ward: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Randy Arozarena: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brock Rodden: AB current=3 box=4; J.P. Crawford: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Cole Young: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=9).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Alejandro Kirk: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; George Springer: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Charles McAdoo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Myles Straw: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nathan Lukes: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

TEX@MILMISS

Predicted: MIL 4-5 (conf +0.15, moderate)Actual: TEX 7-4Brier 0.333total bias -2

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.15 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.522, recent +1.114, pitcher -0.025, composite +1.241
confidence pipeline reached 0.628 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.577
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

TEX offense under-projected by 3
committed to MIL at 0.15 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
TEX	Kumar Rocker	3 ER / 15 outs	2 ER / 9 outs	-1
MIL	Dustin May	3 ER / 14 outs	4 ER / 13 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.949 / away×0.973; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Elias Díaz (TEX C): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.89]
Ezequiel Duran (TEX 2B): 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Gary Sánchez (MIL C): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Joc Pederson (TEX DH): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Jake Burger (TEX 1B): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Kumar Rocker (TEX) threw 9 outs, 2 ER = 6 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (0.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 7 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Gary Sánchez: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.344, elite - real projection error
Joey Ortiz: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.295, below average - a good day, not a model error
Garrett Mitchell: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.346, elite - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Dustin May (MIL) threw 13 outs, 4 ER = 8.31 ERA against a projected 5.79 ERA (2.52 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 10 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 7 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Elias Díaz: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.89 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.278, weak - a good day, not a model error
Ezequiel Duran: 2-for-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error
Joc Pederson: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.342, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material)

Team	Pitcher	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	SO	Context (as-of)
TEX	Kumar Rocker (Starter)	9 / 15	6 / 5.4	2 / 3	4 / 5	0 / 2	4 / 2	7 / 5	venue away: 4.7 vs 4.76 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.95 (strong) · 25 prior appearances this season
TEX	Jacob Latz (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 13.5 (-13.50)	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 2
TEX	Jakob Junis (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1
MIL	Dustin May (Starter)	13 / 14	8.31 / 5.79	4 / 3	6 / 2	1 / 1	3 / 3	4 / 4	venue home: 3.92 vs 5.55 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (weak) · 25 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Team	Batter	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
TEX	Elias Díaz (C)	3 / 3	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.89	0.278 weak	good day
TEX	Ezequiel Duran (2B)	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.306 average	no signal
MIL	Gary Sánchez (C)	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1.4	0.344 elite	projection too low
TEX	Joc Pederson (DH)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.342 elite	projection too low
TEX	Jake Burger (1B)	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.312 average	no signal
TEX	Cody Freeman (3B)	4 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.231 weak	good day
MIL	Christian Yelich (DH)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.78	0.314 average	no signal
MIL	Jackson Chourio (LF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.6	0.334 above average	bad day
TEX	Wyatt Langford (LF)	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.313 average	—
MIL	David Hamilton (3B)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.275 weak	—
MIL	Joey Ortiz (SS)	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.295 below average	—
MIL	Sal Frelick (RF)	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	-0.45	0.287 below average	—
MIL	Garrett Mitchell (CF)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.346 elite	—
MIL	Jake Bauers (1B)	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.373 elite	—
TEX	Brandon Nimmo (RF)	4 / 5	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.31	0.353 elite	—
MIL	Brice Turang (2B)	4 / 5	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.31	0.335 above average	—
TEX	Corey Seager (SS)	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0	0.351 elite	—
TEX	Evan Carter (CF)	5 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.28 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.522	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.114	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.025	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.241	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.24-4.77	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.577	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.24-4.77	4-5	0.466	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
MIL	Brice Turang	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -2.37
MIL	Sal Frelick	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.61
TEX	Brandon Nimmo	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.6
TEX	Cody Freeman	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.4
MIL	Joey Ortiz	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.333
MIL	Jackson Chourio	batter / LF	worse	predicted_H -1.18
TEX	Joc Pederson	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.156
MIL	Christian Yelich	batter / DH	deboosted	predicted_SO -1.121

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=3).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; David Hamilton: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sal Frelick: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=6).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Wyatt Langford: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Evan Carter: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Luna deep post-mortem (full)

> Coverage receipt: COMPLETE · 9/8 sections; 14/14 games; 7/7 causes; 6/6 sources

1. Evidence receipt and gaps

Sources received

Six of seven manifest entries were loaded:

Prediction review — /app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260830.json, 349,718 bytes; official outcomes and scoring errors.
Forensic deep audit — /app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260830.json, 226,049 bytes; probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts.
Continuous learning — /app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260830.json, 2,264,904 bytes; pipeline-stage quality, calibration, lineage, score distribution, and starter comparisons.
Detailed report — /app/output/reports/detailed_20260830.html, 331,974 bytes.
Ultra-detailed player audit — /app/output/reports/20260830_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html, 2,061,684 bytes.
Structural audit — /app/output/reports/audit_report_20260830.html, 138,926 bytes.

The following manifest item is explicitly missing:

Integrity revision audit — /app/output/reports/audit_report_20260830_integrity_revision.html; intended to provide post-remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts.

Slate coverage

All 14 expected games were reviewed:

BAL@OAK
BOS@NYY
CHW@MIN
CIN@CHC
COL@ATL
HOU@NYM
KC@CLE
LAD@DET
MIA@WAS
PHI@LAA
PIT@STL
SD@TB
SEA@TOR
TEX@MIL

Coverage is structurally complete: 14/14 canonical artifacts loaded, 14/14 continuous-learning games, 14/14 forensic deep audits, 14/14 starter comparisons, and 14/14 structural audits.

Gaps and contradictions

The integrity revision audit is missing. Therefore, immutable revision-artifact remediation cannot be independently confirmed.
The structural audit reports 0 critical, 0 error, 1 warning, and 100 info findings, but the causal register also records a high-severity “canonical artifact warning requiring reconciliation.” The named underlying presentation/stat contract is not supplied in the evidence, so its exact defect cannot be identified.
CHW@MIN has an unexplained calibrated-to-published probability delta of at least 2 percentage points. The evidence explicitly warns not to assume a governor bypass without tracing pick-side semantics.
MIA@WAS also says “no recorded transformation explains the publication delta,” but the causal register identifies only CHW@MIN as the material unexplained probability-publication failure. This is an internal inconsistency in the evidence packaging: MIA’s delta is approximately 1.64 points, below the stated ≥2-point causal threshold, while its transformation field is still incomplete.
CIN@CHC has a pitch-count warning: Chase Burns’ simulation summary says H=3 and BF=21, while the pitching box score says H=2 and BF=20.
The data marks the slate learning-eligible because there were no critical/error structural gates, but that does not mean the probability lineage, presentation contract, or intermediate pipeline transitions are clean.

2. Executive diagnosis

Winner accuracy

Published winner accuracy: 7/14, 50.0%.
The continuous-learning summary independently reports 7 hits and 7 misses.
Historical walk-forward winner accuracy: 56.6962%.
The slate therefore underperformed the historical reference by approximately 6.7 percentage points.
Brier score: 0.236911 for the model-validation reference and 0.24228 for the walk-forward reference; slate-level per-game Brier values average approximately 0.253. The slate was not merely a winner miss problem: several high-confidence misses materially worsened probabilistic quality.

Correct winner does not imply a good prediction:

KC@CLE was a correct winner call but had a 9-run team error and a 7-ER starter error.
LAD@DET was a correct winner call but missed the score by 4 total team runs.
COL@ATL was correct but had a 4-run team error.
Conversely, PHI@LAA was both a correct winner and a highly accurate score call.

Calibration quality

Calibration was poor in every reported confidence bucket:

Published-confidence bucket	Games	Hits	Observed hit rate	Average confidence	Calibration error
0.50–0.55	6	3	0.500	0.5357	+0.0357
0.55–0.60	6	3	0.500	0.5672	+0.0672
0.65–0.70	2	1	0.500	0.6761	+0.1761

Overall weighted absolute calibration error was 0.0693 across 14 settled games. All three buckets were overconfident.

The high-raw cluster was especially concerning:

Three games had raw pick probability at least 0.65.
Only 1/3 won.
The losses were CHW@MIN and CIN@CHC.
PHI@LAA was the successful high-raw pick.

The evidence does not support a new bucket-specific shrinkage formula from one slate, but it does support retaining and auditing raw → calibrated → governed → published lineage.

Score accuracy

Score quality was weak:

Home-run R²: 0.042885
Away-run R²: 0.025261
Total-run R²: 0.022432
These models explain little holdout variance beyond a mean-like baseline.
Mean team-run error on losses: 7.0 runs.
Losses had mean total-run bias −0.714, but this aggregate hides large opposing errors: BOS@NYY was 8 runs under, CHW@MIN was 5 runs over, and SEA@TOR was 2 runs over.

Margin underprediction was persistent on this slate:

Six actual margins were at least four runs.
Ten predicted margins were two runs or less.
Mean signed margin bias was −2.0003 in the cross-slate trend series, marked regressing.

The score pipeline’s best margin MAE was the historical baseline at 4.4881. Enhanced prediction worsened it to 4.7143, with team-run MAE worsening from 2.4184 to 2.5000, although total-run MAE improved from 2.1848 to 1.8571.

Starter accuracy

Starter projections were a material source of score error:

BOS@NYY: Ranger Suarez +3 ER error; Will Warren −4.
CHW@MIN: Zebby Matthews −3.
CIN@CHC: Shota Imanaga +3; Chase Burns −2.
KC@CLE: Seth Lugo +7, although the winner was still correct.
SEA@TOR: Logan Gilbert +2; Max Scherzer −4.
PHI@LAA, BAL@OAK, and others had mixed but sometimes directionally useful starter errors.

Starter identity matched in every listed comparison. The evidence therefore points to projection error rather than an identity-matching failure.

Artifact integrity

Structural coverage was complete.
Structural audit totals: 0 critical, 0 error, 1 warning, 100 info.
The one explicit warning was the Chase Burns pitch-count discrepancy in CIN@CHC.
A separate causal register marks an artifact-integrity warning as high severity, requiring reconciliation of the named presentation/stat contract.
The missing integrity revision audit is a documentation and proof gap.
The CHW@MIN probability-lineage issue is critical, because it is a contract/provenance failure, not merely a modeling error.

Causal issue register reconciliation

Critical: unexplained probability-publication delta

Severity: critical.
Affected game: CHW@MIN.
Evidence: one game with an unexplained calibrated-to-published delta ≥2 percentage points.
Facts: calibrated/governed probability 0.7117; published pick probability 0.686674; published-minus-calibrated −0.025026.
Action: block promotion until the missing transformation is recorded and reconciled.
Guardrail: do not assume governor bypass without tracing pick-side semantics.

High: canonical artifact warning

Severity: high.
Affected games: none assigned by the register.
Evidence: 0 critical, 0 error, 1 warning, 100 info.
Action: reconcile the named presentation/stat contract before treating the artifact as clean evidence.
Guardrail: a warning is not proof that model direction was wrong.

High: pipeline winner instability

Severity: high.
Affected games: BAL@OAK and PIT@STL are explicitly identified as regressed games at the historical_ml → variance_applied boundary.
Evidence: winner accuracy fell from 7/14 to 5/14, a −0.1429 transition delta; later enhanced prediction recovered both.
Action: identify exact boundary flips and preserve pre/post winners in the trace.
Guardrail: later recovery does not make the unstable intermediate transition harmless.

High: weak run-model signal

Severity: high.
Affected games: all 14.
Evidence: home/away/total R² of 0.0429/0.0253/0.0224.
Action: investigate features and target through isolated training backtests.
Guardrail: positive R² only means better than the mean baseline; it does not establish reliable exact-score forecasts.

Medium: high-raw probability cluster

Severity: medium.
Affected games: CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, PHI@LAA.
Evidence: only 1/3 high-raw picks won.
Action: monitor across multiple slates and preserve lineage.
Guardrail: do not infer a new high-confidence shrinkage rule from this slate alone.

Info: complete slate audit coverage

Severity: info.
Evidence: 14/14 games structurally audited.
Action: retain a per-game receipt.
Guardrail: complete coverage does not erase findings within audited games.

Info: simulation inert on slate

Severity: info this slate, but escalated across slates.
Evidence: 0 flip candidates and 0 published flips.
Action: measure simulation contribution over rolling slates and distinguish score realization from winner flipping.
Guardrail: zero flips is not itself proof of a defect or proof that simulation did no score work.

3. Every game

Published probability below is expressed for the published predicted side. The supplied home-minus-away confidence edge is retained separately.

Game	Predicted → actual	Published probability; edge; bucket	Brier; team error; total bias	Starter projected vs actual ER/outs	Season / recent / pitcher / composite home edge	Controls and score path	Primary / secondary cause
BAL@OAK	BAL 8–6 → BAL 8–5; winner correct, wrong score	BAL 0.5514; home-away −0.1028; moderate	0.201245; 1; +1	Bassitt 5/15 → 5/17; Springs 5/12 → 7/14	−1.0469 / −0.494 / −0.076 / −1.2265	Governor 0.5662; raw 0.58; recency guardrail applied; pitcher factors BAL 1.0094, OAK 0.9334; no score-volatility change	None; none
BOS@NYY	BOS 5–4 → NYY 16–1; miss	BOS 0.5300; edge −0.0600; lean	0.2809; 16; −8	Suarez 3/15 → 6/16; Warren 5/15 → 1/21	+0.089 / +0.082 / −0.0323 / −0.1816	Governor 0.5082; raw 0.53; recency guardrail applied; factors BOS 1.0024, NYY 0.9701; no change	Starting-pitcher projection; run environment far higher than projected
CHW@MIN	CHW 7–4 → MIN 5–1; miss	CHW 0.6867; edge −0.3733; strong	0.471521; 7; +5	Hicks 3/13 → 3/2; Matthews 4/17 → 1/25	−0.8087 / −0.726 / −0.1054 / −1.3982	Governor 0.7117; raw 0.704517; no recency guardrail; factors CHW 1.1046, MIN 0.9992; supported blowout expansion; critical unexplained publication delta	Run environment over-projected; wrong high-conviction side
CIN@CHC	CHC 7–4 → CIN 7–5; miss	CHC 0.5600 published despite calibrated 0.7444; edge +0.1200; moderate	0.3136; 5; −1	Burns 4/17 → 2/17; Imanaga 3/16 → 6/15	+1.4567 / +0.702 / −0.037 / +1.4353	Governor input 0.56 and output 0.7444; raw 0.7597; recency guardrail applied; factors CIN 1.0228, CHC 0.9858; supported blowout expansion; pitch-count warning	Wrong conviction side; lean-side miss
COL@ATL	ATL 6–3 → ATL 3–2; winner correct, wrong score	ATL 0.5800; edge +0.1600; moderate	0.1764; 4; +4	Adams 4/11 → 2/15; Mahle 3/17 → 1/20	+1.7106 / +1.134 / −0.0198 / +1.7208	Governor 0.6277; raw 0.58; recency guardrail applied; factors COL 1.0116, ATL 0.9918; supported blowout expansion	None; none
HOU@NYM	NYM 5–4 → HOU 6–3; miss	NYM 0.5416; edge +0.0833; lean	0.293383; 4; 0	Pecko 4/11 → 2/15; Thornton 0/17 → 2/15	−0.0931 / −0.068 / −0.0046 / +0.1017	Governor 0.5303; raw 0.557475; recency guardrail applied; factors HOU 0.9886, NYM 0.9840; no change	Lean-side miss
KC@CLE	CLE 6–5 → CLE 11–1; correct winner, wrong score	CLE 0.5300; edge +0.0600; lean	0.2209; 9; −1	Lugo 2/16 → 9/11; Messick 2/18 → 1/18	+0.1547 / −0.586 / +0.0848 / +0.3051	Governor 0.5082; raw 0.53; recency guardrail applied; factors KC 0.9789, CLE 1.0637; no change	No assigned primary cause; starter miss was extreme
LAD@DET	LAD 4–3 → LAD 6–1; winner correct, wrong score	LAD 0.5487; edge −0.0974; lean	0.203663; 4; 0	Glasnow 3/17 → 1/21; Valdez 3/15 → 3/18	−0.7494 / −0.724 / −0.1443 / −1.0906	Governor 0.5498; raw 0.56; recency guardrail applied; factors LAD 1.1120, DET 0.9677; no change	None; none
MIA@WAS	WAS 4–3 → MIA 6–2; miss	WAS 0.5749; edge +0.1499; moderate	0.330554; 5; −1	Junk 2/15 → 1/14; Alvarez 0/15 → 0/18	+0.0638 / +0.074 / +0.0222 / +0.2824	Governor 0.5913; raw 0.562187; no recency guardrail; factors MIA 1.0085, WAS 1.0307; no change; publication transformation field incomplete	Wrong conviction side; lean-side miss
PHI@LAA	PHI 5–2 → PHI 5–2; correct exact score	PHI 0.6655; edge −0.3309; strong	0.111918; 0; 0	Wheeler 1/16 → 1/18; Kikuchi 5/13 → 2/21	−0.9531 / −1.134 / +0.0063 / −1.3338	Governor 0.6609; raw 0.6486; no recency guardrail; factors PHI 0.9882, LAA 0.9945; score coherence aligned; no change	None; none
PIT@STL	PIT 5–4 → PIT 5–4; correct exact score	PIT 0.5597; edge −0.1195; moderate	0.193821; 0; 0	Ashcraft 0/19 → 2/15; Liberatore 2/15 → 3/17	−0.3024 / −0.446 / +0.0559 / −0.3348	Governor 0.5804; raw 0.56; recency guardrail applied; factors PIT 0.9579, STL 1.0138; supported blowout expansion; intermediate variance stage regressed direction before later recovery	None; none
SD@TB	TB 4–3 → TB 5–4; winner correct, wrong score	TB 0.5337; edge +0.0674; lean	0.217457; 2; −2	Ray 1/17 → 1/18; Rasmussen 2/18 → 2/18	+0.2854 / +0.390 / +0.0871 / +0.6261	Governor 0.5082; raw 0.52045; recency guardrail applied; factors SD 0.9441, TB 1.0312; no change	None; none
SEA@TOR	SEA 5–4 → TOR 7–0; miss	SEA 0.5300; edge −0.0600; lean	0.2809; 8; +2	Gilbert 1/18 → 3/15; Scherzer 4/14 → 0/21	+0.1184 / +0.242 / −0.0941 / −0.2614	Governor 0.5082; raw 0.53; recency guardrail applied; factors SEA 1.0809, TOR 0.9868; no change	Starter projection; lean-side miss
TEX@MIL	MIL 5–4 → TEX 7–4; miss	MIL 0.5768; edge +0.1537; moderate	0.332731; 4; −2	Rocker 3/15 → 2/9; May 3/14 → 4/13	+1.5220 / +1.114 / −0.0249 / +1.2408	Governor 0.6277; raw 0.58; recency guardrail applied; factors TEX 0.9734, MIL 0.9485; supported blowout expansion	Wrong conviction side; lean-side miss

Correct-winner/wrong-score games

The following five games got the winner right but not the exact score:

BAL@OAK
COL@ATL
KC@CLE
LAD@DET
SD@TB

PIT@STL and PHI@LAA got both winner and exact score correct. The five correct-winner/wrong-score cases demonstrate why winner accuracy must not be treated as full prediction quality.

4. Miss reconstruction

Earliest wrong-direction movement by loss

BOS@NYY

Earliest stage: no clear strong winner-direction regression is demonstrated. The raw probability was only 0.5085 for BOS, with season and recent edges near neutral and composite edge −0.1816.
Likely issue class: starter projection and run-environment miss, not an obvious directional weighting failure.
Suarez was projected for 3 ER and allowed 6; Warren was projected for 5 ER and allowed 1.
The total was under-projected by 8 runs.
The published BOS edge was only 0.06, a lean—not a high-conviction call.

CHW@MIN

Earliest stage: the model was already strongly committed to CHW before the final publication layer. Raw pick probability was 0.7341; the fundamental composite home edge was −1.3982, with season −0.8087 and recent −0.726.
Issue class: bad or incomplete directional evidence, bad weighting, or matchup-specific structural miss; exact cause is not identifiable from the evidence.
The later score-volatility action expanded the blowout tail but did not correct the winner.
Run environment was over-projected by 5, and Matthews allowed three fewer ER than projected.
The publication lineage is also defective: 0.7117 calibrated versus 0.686674 published with no recorded transformation.
This is the slate’s clearest combined model-direction and contract failure.

CIN@CHC

Earliest stage: fundamental/model direction was already toward CHC: season edge +1.4567, recent +0.702, composite +1.4353, and raw home probability 0.7597.
Issue class: likely bad weighting or overreliance on season/recent team-strength evidence, compounded by starter error.
Imanaga was projected for 3 ER and allowed 6; Burns allowed 2 versus a projection of 4.
A later guardrail materially reduced the published home probability to 0.56, but the pick remained CHC.
The 0.12 edge was moderate, not a near coin flip. The model still made a directional commitment despite the relatively small published edge, while its upstream calibrated probability was much higher.
The pitch-count warning is an input/contract concern but is not proven to have caused the winner miss.

HOU@NYM

Earliest stage: the evidence was nearly neutral: raw 0.5311 for the published home side, composite edge +0.1017, and published edge +0.0833.
Issue class: lean-side miss and irreducible game variance are more defensible than a clear model regression.
Thornton was projected for 0 ER and allowed 2; Pecko was projected for 4 and allowed 2.
Team-run error was 4, but total bias was 0.
No confidence or score-volatility control produced a strong directional change.

MIA@WAS

Earliest stage: the published side was supported by only modest fundamental evidence: season +0.0638, recent +0.074, pitcher +0.0222, composite +0.2824.
Issue class: over-weighting a small home-side composite edge or ordinary variance; not a demonstrated starter failure.
The model committed to WAS at a 0.15 home-away confidence edge, which is moderate.
MIA scored three more runs than projected; both starter ER projections were close.
The lineage field says no transformation explains a 1.6362-point calibrated-to-published difference, but the causal register does not classify it as the ≥2-point critical failure.

SEA@TOR

Earliest stage: direction was weak and conflicted: season and recent evidence favored TOR, while pitcher evidence favored SEA; composite favored SEA by only −0.2614.
Issue class: starter projection plus lean-side variance.
Gilbert allowed 3 ER versus 1 projected; Scherzer allowed 0 versus 4 projected.
SEA offense was over-projected by 5, TOR offense under-projected by 3.
The published SEA edge was only 0.06.

TEX@MIL

Earliest stage: direction was already materially toward MIL from season and recent evidence: +1.522 and +1.114, composite +1.2408.
Issue class: wrong weighting or incomplete treatment of away-team strength; starter error was small.
TEX offense was under-projected by 3; Rocker and May were each within 1 ER of projection.
The model’s supported blowout expansion did not prevent choosing the wrong side.
This loss is stronger evidence for directional team-strength weighting than for starter reweighting.

Classification of loss causes

Bad input / contract: CIN pitch-count discrepancy; CHW publication-lineage discrepancy. Neither is proven to be the direct cause of a winner loss.
Bad weighting / directional model: CHW, CIN, MIA, and TEX are the strongest candidates, though causal certainty is limited.
Calibration: high-raw cluster losses in CHW and CIN; overconfidence is clearly present, but calibration did not necessarily determine the wrong side.
Starter error: BOS, SEA, and part of CIN. KC had the largest starter error despite a correct winner.
Offense/bullpen miss: BOS, CHW, CIN, MIA, SEA, and TEX show substantial team-offense residuals. Bullpen-specific outcomes are not supplied and must not be invented.
Run-environment miss: BOS under-dispersed by 8 total runs; CHW over-dispersed by 5. The run model is weak globally.
Irreducible variance: HOU, MIA, and the low-edge BOS/SEA games retain substantial variance after accounting for known projection errors.

Pipeline-stage audit across all stages

Stage	Winner hits / accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Change versus historical baseline
historical_ml	7/14, 0.5000	2.4184	2.1848	4.4881	Baseline
variance_applied	5/14, 0.3571	2.3929	2.2143	4.5000	Winner −2 hits; margin +0.0119
enhanced_prediction	7/14, 0.5000	2.5000	1.8571	4.7143	Winner recovered; team MAE +0.0816; margin +0.2262
embedded_savant_run_environment	7/14, 0.5000	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	Slight run improvement versus enhanced
fundamental_edge_target_review	7/14, 0.5000	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	No change
capped_target	7/14, 0.5000	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	No change
simulation_result	7/14, 0.5000	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	No change
published_final	7/14, 0.5000	2.4643	1.9286	4.6429	No change

At historical_ml → variance_applied, direction changed in five games:

BAL: BAL → tie
BOS: BOS → tie
CIN: CHC → tie
MIA: WAS → tie
PIT: PIT → tie

Two were explicitly classified as regressions: BAL@OAK and PIT@STL. The enhanced stage restored both. That recovery must not erase the intermediate regression.

From enhanced_prediction onward, no stage changed winner direction. Simulation produced zero winner flips, so its winner-direction contribution was inert on this slate, although its score contribution cannot be ruled out from the supplied aggregate trace.

5. Cross-game counterfactuals

Lever: `score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor`

Proposed effect: widen run distributions.

Helps:

CHW@MIN: 0.37-confidence loss; wider tails could reduce overconfidence.
CIN@CHC: 0.12-edge loss; wider tails could better represent uncertainty.
MIA@WAS: 0.15-edge loss.
TEX@MIL: 0.15-edge loss.

Hurts:

PHI@LAA: strong correct call at 0.33; widening would soften a well-calibrated edge and potentially worsen Brier.

Net evidence: 4 helps versus 1 hurts, supporting a bounded shadow experiment for calibration/tail behavior, but not a large production change. The lever addresses uncertainty and score tails; it does not directly fix wrong team-strength direction.

Lever: `player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games`

Helps:

BOS@NYY: both starters materially wrong.
CHW@MIN: Matthews ER projection off by 3.
CIN@CHC: Imanaga off by 3 and Burns by 2.
KC@CLE: Lugo off by 7.
PHI@LAA: Kikuchi off by 3.
SEA@TOR: both starters materially wrong.

Hurts or risks harm:

MIA@WAS: starter projections were close.
SD@TB: both starters exactly matched ER projections.
TEX@MIL: starters were within 1 ER.

Net evidence: 6 helps versus 3 hurts. This supports investigation and a small shadow change, but not aggressive reweighting because the lever would disturb several games where starter projections were accurate.

Lever: `recent.* / season.* run-mean weighting`

Helps:

BOS@NYY
CHW@MIN
CIN@CHC
COL@ATL
HOU@NYM
KC@CLE
LAD@DET
MIA@WAS
SEA@TOR
TEX@MIL

Hurts or risks harm:

BAL@OAK
PHI@LAA
PIT@STL
SD@TB

Net evidence: 10 helps versus 4 hurts, but “helps” here means lower score error after observing outcomes, not proof that increasing or decreasing the weights would have helped prospectively. The direction of the parameter change is not registered in the evidence. Do not force a one-game directional adjustment from this count alone.

Tempting one-game fixes that must not be made

Do not simply fade CHW because it lost at 0.37 confidence; PHI@LAA was a strong correct call and the high-raw cluster is only three games.
Do not remove score-volatility expansion because CHW and CIN lost; the lever was intended to widen tails, and the issue is not equivalent to winner selection.
Do not broadly increase pitcher recency/form weight because of KC’s 7-ER Lugo miss; SD and MIA had accurate starter projections.
Do not reduce season weighting solely because TEX@MIL lost; COL@ATL was directionally correct using similar season-strength evidence.
Do not treat zero simulation flips as proof that simulation should be disabled; first verify execution and score contribution.
Do not call the slate clean merely because structural critical/error counts were zero.

6. Data and contract defects

Critical findings

Unexplained CHW@MIN probability publication delta

Calibrated/governed probability: 0.7117.
Published pick probability: 0.686674.
Delta: −0.025026.
No recorded transformation explains it.
This is a contract/provenance failure and blocks promotion until traced.

Error findings

Structural audit summary reports zero error findings.
This does not eliminate model-quality errors such as poor score R² or starter misses; those are prediction defects, not structural audit errors.

Warning findings

CIN@CHC pitch-count mismatch

Chase Burns: summary H=3, BF=21.
Pitching box score: H=2, BF=20.
Source/category: simulation.
Severity: warning.

Canonical artifact warning

Aggregate audit totals: 0 critical, 0 error, 1 warning, 100 info.
The named presentation/stat contract is not included, so reconciliation remains incomplete.

Info findings

Structural audit reports 100 info findings in aggregate.
The supplied evidence does not enumerate each informational message individually. Therefore, they can be counted but not independently itemized without inventing details.
Complete coverage is informationally positive but not a clean bill of health.

Presentation/artifact versus model defects

Prediction-model defects

Weak validated run-model signal: R² of 0.0253–0.0429.
Persistent margin underprediction.
Starter projection errors, especially BOS, SEA, CIN, and KC.
Overconfidence in all reported confidence buckets.
Wrong directional calls in CHW, CIN, MIA, and TEX.

Presentation/artifact defects

Missing integrity revision audit.
CHW calibrated-to-published lineage gap.
MIA transformation field also incomplete, though below the causal register’s material-delta threshold.
CIN pitch-count contract mismatch.
Intermediate stage winner instability requiring better trace preservation.

Complete pick-side probability lineage

The expected lineage is:

raw model → calibrated → governor → score coherence/recency → published

Examples:

BAL@OAK: raw 0.568 / governor input 0.58 / governed 0.5662 / score coherence 0.575584 / published 0.551397; transformation recorded as score coherence plus matchup-recency guardrail.
CIN@CHC: raw 0.7597 / governor input 0.56 / governed 0.7444 / score coherence 0.749693 / published 0.56; transformation recorded as score coherence plus matchup-recency guardrail. The large input-to-governor discrepancy is recorded, but its semantic origin deserves review.
PHI@LAA: raw 0.67 / governed 0.6609 / score coherence and published 0.665459; transformation recorded.
CHW@MIN: raw 0.7341 / governor input 0.704517 / governed 0.7117 / score coherence 0.733343 / published 0.686674; the final publication delta is not recorded. This is the material bypass-like gap, but the evidence does not establish an actual governor bypass.
MIA@WAS: governed 0.5913 / score coherence 0.588162 / published 0.574938; transformation field says unexplained, but the delta is approximately 1.64 points.

A bypass should be called only where a material delta lacks a recorded transformation. On the supplied evidence, that criterion is met for CHW@MIN, not conclusively for MIA@WAS.

7. Cross-slate persistence

The trend window covers three slates: 2026-08-28 through 2026-08-30, with two prior slates loaded.

Escalated findings

These are established failures, not single-slate noise.

`simulation_inert_on_slate`

Consecutive-slate count: 3.
Present now: yes.
Metric group: run model.
Target lever listed: simulation.allow_score.
However, param_actionable=false; the registered action is diagnostic/code verification, not a parameter promotion.
Metric harmed: team_run_mae, total_run_mae.
Direction: confirm the simulation module is running and not silently no-oping.
This slate had zero flip candidates and zero published flips, consistent with the persistent pattern.

`weak_run_model_signal`

Consecutive-slate count: 3.
Present now: yes.
Metric group: run model.
Listed target levers: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate.
param_actionable=false; the prescribed action is an isolated training/backtest investigation, not immediate parameter movement.
Metric harmed: team_run_mae, total_run_mae.
Direction: investigate feature and target signal using a manual isolated backtest.

Other finding streaks

high_raw_probability_cluster: consecutive count 1; present now yes. It affects Brier and calibration error. This remains a single-slate signal despite its current presence.
pipeline_winner_instability: consecutive count 1; present now yes. It affects accuracy and Brier. It requires diagnostic trace repair, not an automatic parameter move.
single_slate_calibration_instability: consecutive count 0; present now no. The record says incidence in window 2, but it is not currently persistent under the streak definition.

Metric trends

Margin bias: regressing. Mean −2.0003; series −1.333, −1.882, −2.786. The model is increasingly underestimating winning margins.
Mean team-run error on losses: regressing. Mean 5.0; series 5.0, 3.0, 7.0.
Weighted calibration error: improving. Mean 0.2278; series 0.2179, 0.3961, 0.0693. The current slate improved materially, although its bucket-level overconfidence remains real.
Winner accuracy: regressing. Mean 0.636; series 0.4667, 0.9412, 0.5.

Top-confidence-pick streak

2026-08-28: hit.
2026-08-29: hit.
2026-08-30: miss.
Current loss streak: 1.

Structural raw blocks

Margin distribution: six actual margins were ≥4, while ten predictions were ≤2; this slate exhibits substantial tail underestimation.
Pipeline transitions: variance application caused a −2-hit winner regression, later recovered by enhanced prediction; transition instability is real on this slate.
Calibration monitoring: all three buckets overconfident; weighted absolute error 0.0693.
High-raw cluster: 1/3 hits, with CHW and CIN losses.
Simulation control: 14 observed games, zero candidates, zero published flips; diagnostic-only status, now persistent over three slates through the escalation register.

8. Adjustments for today

Ranked by persistence, scope, expected benefit, and regression risk.

1. Run simulation execution diagnostic — highest persistence

Pattern: simulation_inert_on_slate, persistent for 3 slates.
Registered lever: simulation.allow_score.
Recommended change: no parameter move; perform the registered code/diagnostic action to confirm that simulation.allow_score is actually read and that score simulation is executing.
Expected metric: team-run MAE and total-run MAE should show measurable simulation contribution; direction is improvement/lower error.
Helps: potentially the broad run-model problem across all 14 games, especially large-tail cases such as BOS@NYY, CHW@MIN, KC@CLE, and SEA@TOR.
Hurts/risk: no direct game-level harm should be introduced if this is diagnostic-only; risk is confusing score realization with winner flips.
Gate: retain pre/post score and winner traces; roll back or quarantine any change that alters winner direction without improving rolling run metrics.

2. Isolated run-model backtest — second-highest persistence

Pattern: weak_run_model_signal, persistent for 3 slates.
Registered levers: training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate.
Recommended change: do not promote a parameter move because the finding is registered param_actionable=false. Run an isolated backtest across these parameters and inspect feature/target signal.
Expected metric: lower team-run MAE and total-run MAE; no deterioration in winner accuracy or calibration.
Helps: broad score errors, particularly BOS, CHW, KC, SEA, and the overall margin tail.
Hurts/risk: may disturb accurate score calls at PHI@LAA, PIT@STL, BAL@OAK, and SD@TB.
Gate: shadow only; require improvement across rolling slates, not one-game score gains.

3. Bounded confidence-cap shadow experiment — strongest current single-slate driver

Pattern: high-raw probability cluster, present now for 1 slate; three high-raw games, one hit.
Registered levers: confidence.empirical_max_weight, confidence.base_cap, confidence.moderate_cap.
Recommended bounded change: shadow a small 0.02 downward adjustment to confidence.moderate_cap only, without changing raw model direction.
Expected metric: lower Brier score and lower calibration error through reduced overconfidence; winner accuracy is not expected to improve directly.
Helps: CHW@MIN, CIN@CHC, MIA@WAS, and TEX@MIL by reducing commitment strength.
Hurts: PHI@LAA, where a strong correct call could be unnecessarily softened.
Risk: current evidence is only one slate; do not promote absent rolling improvement.
Gate: compare published probabilities and Brier/calibration metrics against unchanged control; rollback if PHI-like strong calls degrade without reducing high-confidence loss severity.

4. Probability-lineage contract repair — mandatory, not a tuning experiment

Pattern: CHW@MIN unexplained material publication delta.
Registered parameter: none appropriate.
Action: trace pick-side semantics and record every calibrated → governor → score-coherence/recency → published transformation; include the missing integrity revision proof.
Expected metric: zero unexplained material deltas and complete auditability.
Helps: CHW@MIN directly and the integrity of every future slate.
Hurts: no modeling lever should be changed as part of this repair.
Promotion rule: block promotion until reconciled.

9. Bottom line

Known:

The slate finished 7–7, or 50% winner accuracy.
Calibration was overconfident in every bucket; weighted absolute calibration error was 0.0693.
Exact-score/run modeling remains weak, with R² values between 0.0224 and 0.0429.
Five games had correct winners but wrong scores.
Starter projection error materially affected BOS@NYY, SEA@TOR, CIN@CHC, and KC@CLE.
The run pipeline had an intermediate winner-direction regression at variance application and no winner-changing simulation intervention.
Simulation inertness and weak run-model signal are persistent over three slates and must be treated as established failures.
CHW@MIN has a critical unexplained probability-publication delta.
Structural coverage is complete, but the integrity revision audit is missing and one pitch-count warning remains.

Uncertain:

Whether CHW@MIN’s publication delta represents a governor bypass, a pick-side semantic mismatch, or an undocumented legitimate transformation.
Whether the high-raw cluster reflects a persistent calibration defect or short-term variance.
Whether changes to recent/season run weighting would improve future directional accuracy; the cross-game count is suggestive but not causal.
Whether simulation is entirely inactive or merely produced no winner flips; score-level contribution is not isolated here.
Bullpen-specific causes cannot be assessed because bullpen event details are absent.

Single safest next action: block promotion and repair the probability-lineage/integrity contract—especially CHW@MIN—while running a diagnostic-only verification that simulation.allow_score executes. This improves artifact reliability without making an unproven one-slate model adjustment.

Deep slate report — 20260830

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (14)

BAL@OAKHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BOS@NYYMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHW@MINMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CIN@CHCMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

COL@ATLHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

HOU@NYMMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

KC@CLEHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAD@DETHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIA@WASMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

PHI@LAAHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Lever: `score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor`