Deep slate diagnosis — 20261010

• Games: 1 · hits 1 · misses 0 · winner accuracy 1.0
• Mean total-run bias on losses: None (negative = under-projected)
• Mean team-run error on losses: None · mean Brier on losses: None

Loss primary drivers

High-level causal issue register

[HIGH] Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate

• Domain: calibration · affected: CHW@CLE
• Evidence: weighted absolute calibration error 0.4732 across 1 games
• Action: Watch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight.
• Do not infer: A single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.

[HIGH] Validated run models explain very little holdout variance

• Domain: model_validation · affected: CHW@CLE
• Evidence: home/away/total R² = 0.0021/0.0309/0.0024
• Action: Treat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails.
• Do not infer: A small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.

[INFO] Every settled game received structural QA

• Domain: coverage · affected: CHW@CLE
• Evidence: 1/1 games structurally audited
• Action: Keep the per-game audit receipt in every report.
• Do not infer: Full audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.

[INFO] Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate

• Domain: simulation · affected: CHW@CLE
• Evidence: flip candidates 0; published flips 0
• Action: Measure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping.
• Do not infer: Zero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

• Window: 20260930, 20261001, , 20261003, 20261004, 20261005, 20261006, 20261007, 20261008, , 20261010 (10 prior slates loaded)
• Highest-confidence pick loss streak: 0 slate(s)
• Actionable pattern detected: True

Escalated persistent patterns

• simulation_inert_on_slate — 11 consecutive slates (11 in window)
• Target lever(s): simulation.allow_score
• Direction: confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping
• Guardrail: simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Metric direction across the window

• winner_accuracy: improving · series [0.75, 1.0, None, 1.0, 0.5, 0.0, 1.0, 0.75, 1.0, None, 1.0]
• weighted_calibration_error: regressing · series [0.2317, 0.4832, None, 0.4705, 0.4806, 0.5291, 0.4642, 0.2272, 0.495, None, 0.4732]
• margin_bias: improving · series [-2.75, -3.0, None, -0.25, 0.0, -0.5, -0.5, -1.75, -3.0, None, -1.0]
• mean_team_run_error_on_losses: improving · series [2.0, None, None, None, 2.0, 3.5, None, 2.0, None, None, None]

Pipeline stage quality

• historical_ml: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 3.4711, margin MAE 1.2224
• variance_applied: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 3.5, margin MAE 1.0
• enhanced_prediction: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 4.5, margin MAE 1.0
• kpi_layer: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 4.5, margin MAE 1.0
• embedded_savant_run_environment: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 4.5, margin MAE 1.0
• fundamental_edge_target_review: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 4.5, margin MAE 1.0
• capped_target: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 4.5, margin MAE 1.0
• simulation_result: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 4.5, margin MAE 1.0
• published_final: winner 1/1 (1.0), team-run MAE 4.5, margin MAE 1.0

Probability lineage

• CHW@CLE: raw 0.5627 → calibrated 0.5372 → published 0.5268; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail

Every game, in detail

CHW@CLE — ✅ hit

• Predicted CLE 5-6 (conf +0.05, lean) · actual CLE 0-2
• Root cause: right_winner_wrong_score
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.223876 · team-run err 9.0 · total bias +9
• Contributing factors:
• total runs over-projected by 9 (11 vs 2)
• CHW offense over-projected by 5
• CLE offense over-projected by 4
• Sean Burke (CHW) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (2 vs 5)

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, with the games it would help and the games it would hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor (widen run distributions)

• Targets: brier_score, calibration_error
• Net: 0 helped vs 0 hurt

player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

• Targets: starter_er_mae, starter_outs_mae
• Net: 1 helped vs 0 hurt
• Would help:
• CHW@CLE (hit): starter ER off by 3

recent. / season. run-mean weighting

• Targets: team_run_mae, total_run_mae, accuracy
• Net: 1 helped vs 0 hurt
• Would help:
• CHW@CLE (hit): team runs off by 9