Deep slate diagnosis — 20261004

• Games: 2 · hits 1 · misses 1 · winner accuracy 0.5
• Mean total-run bias on losses: 2.0 (negative = under-projected)
• Mean team-run error on losses: 2.0 · mean Brier on losses: 0.265

Loss primary drivers

• Genuine toss-up that flipped: 1

High-level causal issue register

[CRITICAL] Published probability differs materially without a recorded transformation

• Domain: probability_lineage · affected: SD@MIL
• Evidence: 1 game(s) have an unexplained ≥2pp calibrated-to-published delta
• Action: Block any promotion until the missing probability transformation is recorded and reconciled.
• Do not infer: Do not assume the probability governor was bypassed until you have traced the pick-side math.

[HIGH] Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate

• Domain: calibration · affected: ATL@LAD, SD@MIL
• Evidence: weighted absolute calibration error 0.4806 across 2 games
• Action: Watch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight.
• Do not infer: A single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.

[HIGH] Validated run models explain very little holdout variance

• Domain: model_validation · affected: ATL@LAD, SD@MIL
• Evidence: home/away/total R² = 0.0021/0.0309/0.0024
• Action: Treat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails.
• Do not infer: A small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.

[INFO] Every settled game received structural QA

• Domain: coverage · affected: ATL@LAD, SD@MIL
• Evidence: 2/2 games structurally audited
• Action: Keep the per-game audit receipt in every report.
• Do not infer: Full audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.

[INFO] Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate

• Domain: simulation · affected: ATL@LAD, SD@MIL
• Evidence: flip candidates 0; published flips 0
• Action: Measure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping.
• Do not infer: Zero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

• Window: 20260924, 20260925, 20260926, 20260927, , 20260929, 20260930, 20261001, , 20261003, 20261004 (10 prior slates loaded)
• Highest-confidence pick loss streak: 0 slate(s)
• Actionable pattern detected: True

Escalated persistent patterns

• simulation_inert_on_slate — 11 consecutive slates (11 in window)
• Target lever(s): simulation.allow_score
• Direction: confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping
• Guardrail: simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Metric direction across the window

• winner_accuracy: regressing · series [0.6667, 0.6471, 0.5385, 0.6429, None, 1.0, 0.75, 1.0, None, 1.0, 0.5]
• weighted_calibration_error: regressing · series [0.1701, 0.1302, 0.1524, 0.1031, None, 0.4792, 0.2317, 0.4832, None, 0.4705, 0.4806]
• margin_bias: improving · series [-1.083, -1.706, -3.0, -1.571, None, -4.25, -2.75, -3.0, None, -0.25, 0.0]
• mean_team_run_error_on_losses: improving · series [3.5, 5.333, 6.167, 4.8, None, None, 2.0, None, None, None, 2.0]

Pipeline stage quality

• historical_ml: winner 1/2 (0.5), team-run MAE 1.4371, margin MAE 1.1925
• variance_applied: winner 1/2 (0.5), team-run MAE 1.5, margin MAE 1.0
• enhanced_prediction: winner 1/2 (0.5), team-run MAE 1.0, margin MAE 1.0
• embedded_savant_run_environment: winner 1/2 (0.5), team-run MAE 1.0, margin MAE 1.0
• fundamental_edge_target_review: winner 1/2 (0.5), team-run MAE 1.0, margin MAE 1.0
• capped_target: winner 1/2 (0.5), team-run MAE 1.0, margin MAE 1.0
• simulation_result: winner 1/2 (0.5), team-run MAE 1.0, margin MAE 1.0
• published_final: winner 1/2 (0.5), team-run MAE 1.0, margin MAE 1.0

Probability lineage

• ATL@LAD: raw 0.5816 → calibrated 0.547 → published 0.5149; score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
• SD@MIL: raw 0.5995 → calibrated 0.5765 → published 0.5538; no recorded transformation explains the publication delta

Every game, in detail

ATL@LAD — ❌ miss

• Predicted LAD 3-4 (conf +0.03, toss_up) · actual ATL 3-2
• Root cause: Genuine toss-up that flipped
• Errors: winner WRONG · Brier 0.265169 · team-run err 2.0 · total bias +2

SD@MIL — ✅ hit

• Predicted MIL 4-5 (conf +0.11, moderate) · actual MIL 3-4
• Root cause: strong_correct_call
• Errors: winner correct · Brier 0.199104 · team-run err 2.0 · total bias +2

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, with the games it would help and the games it would hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

score.variance_multiplier / score.variance_floor (widen run distributions)

• Targets: brier_score, calibration_error
• Net: 0 helped vs 0 hurt

player.pitcher.v4 form weights / player.pitcher_prior_games

• Targets: starter_er_mae, starter_outs_mae
• Net: 0 helped vs 1 hurt
• Would hurt / risk:
• ATL@LAD (miss): starter projection was accurate (ER off 1); reweight risks disturbing it

recent. / season. run-mean weighting

• Targets: team_run_mae, total_run_mae, accuracy
• Net: 0 helped vs 2 hurt
• Would hurt / risk:
• ATL@LAD (miss): team runs already close (off 2); reweight risks disturbing it
• SD@MIL (hit): team runs already close (off 2); reweight risks disturbing it