Continuous postgame learning
rolling_last_30_slates · dates 20260805, 20260806, 20260807, 20260808, 20260809, 20260810, 20260811 · generated 2026-08-11T03:11:28.437721+00:00
36-24
Winner picks · 60.0%
0
Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches
0/0
Starter ER within ±1
0/0
Starter workload within ±1 inning
Slate coverage
Every discovered review date is listed here, including latest-execution reviews when no canonical review exists. A zero-game row is therefore visible instead of silently disappearing.
| Date | Games | Settled | Pending | Hits | Misses | Calibration traces | Pipeline versions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260805 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 0 | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season |
| 20260806 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season |
| 20260807 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season |
| 20260808 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season |
| 20260809 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 0 | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season |
| 20260810 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season |
| 20260811 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 15 | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season |
Prioritized optimization roadmap
Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.
| Priority | Change | Status | Observed games | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | empirical_confidence_blend | implemented_and_monitored | 25 | {
"applied_games": 25,
"formula": "w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate"
} |
| P1 | h2h_base_feature | implemented_and_monitored | 25 | {
"available_games": 16
} |
| P2 | score_distribution_widening | implemented_above_1.4x | 91 | {
"variance_multipliers": [
1.65
]
} |
| P2 | simulation_flip_control | diagnostic_only_without_independent_support | 96 | {
"simulation_flip_candidates": 0,
"published_flips": 0
} |
| P3 | recent_form_quality_blend | implemented_last_10 | 25 | {
"last_10_games": 25
} |
| P3 | continuous_calibration_audit | implemented | 25 | {
"metric": "bucket_calibration_error"
} |
Confidence calibration by bucket
bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.0916.
| Bucket | Games | Average confidence | Observed hit rate | Calibration error | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50-0.55 | 25 | 52.6% | 52.0% | 0.6% | calibrated |
| 0.55-0.60 | 20 | 56.9% | 75.0% | -18.1% | underconfident |
| 0.60-0.65 | 6 | 61.3% | 50.0% | 11.3% | overconfident |
| 0.65-0.70 | 7 | 66.2% | 57.1% | 9.0% | overconfident |
| 0.70-0.80 | 2 | 70.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% | overconfident |
Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality
Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.
| Stage | Games | Team-run MAE | Total-run MAE | Margin MAE | Winner accuracy | Δ team MAE vs base | Δ margin MAE vs base |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 60 | 2.324 | 2.8964 | 3.6806 | 41.7% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| variance_applied | 60 | 2.35 | 3.0667 | 3.7 | 30.0% | 0.026 | 0.0194 |
| enhanced_prediction | 60 | 2.3667 | 3.5333 | 3.4 | 61.7% | 0.0427 | -0.2806 |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 60 | 2.35 | 3.4667 | 3.4667 | 58.3% | 0.026 | -0.2139 |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 60 | 2.3583 | 3.4833 | 3.4833 | 60.0% | 0.0343 | -0.1973 |
| capped_target | 60 | 2.3583 | 3.4833 | 3.4833 | 60.0% | 0.0343 | -0.1973 |
| simulation_result | 60 | 2.4 | 3.5667 | 3.6 | 61.7% | 0.076 | -0.0806 |
| published_final | 60 | 2.4083 | 3.55 | 3.6167 | 60.0% | 0.0843 | -0.0639 |
| simulation_winner_disagreement | 1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 0.0% | 2.676 | 6.3194 |
| simulation_drift_review | 1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 0.0% | 1.676 | 4.3194 |
Largest measured regression
{
"stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
"games": 1,
"team_run_mae": 5.0,
"total_run_mae": 4.0,
"margin_mae": 10.0,
"winner_hits": 0,
"winner_accuracy": 0.0,
"team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 2.676,
"margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 6.3194
}Automatic questions
Which recorded stage contributed most to losses?
partial_attribution sample=24
Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.
| Stage | Total Toward Pick Run Delta | Games |
|---|---|---|
| enhanced_prediction | 20.0 | 24 |
| simulation_result | 12.0 | 24 |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 3.0 | 24 |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 2.0 | 24 |
| simulation_winner_disagreement | 2.0 | 1 |
| capped_target | 0.0 | 24 |
| simulation_drift_review | 0.0 | 1 |
| variance_applied | -2.6338 | 24 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "partial_attribution",
"sample_size": 24,
"top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
"ranking": [
{
"stage": "enhanced_prediction",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 20.0,
"games": 24
},
{
"stage": "simulation_result",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 12.0,
"games": 24
},
{
"stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
"games": 24
},
{
"stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
"games": 24
},
{
"stage": "simulation_winner_disagreement",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
"games": 1
},
{
"stage": "capped_target",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
"games": 24
},
{
"stage": "simulation_drift_review",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
"games": 1
},
{
"stage": "variance_applied",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": -2.6338,
"games": 24
}
],
"interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}Which recorded stage contributed most to wins?
partial_attribution sample=36
Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.
| Stage | Total Toward Pick Run Delta | Games |
|---|---|---|
| enhanced_prediction | 44.0 | 36 |
| simulation_result | 21.0 | 36 |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 7.0 | 36 |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 1.0 | 36 |
| capped_target | 0.0 | 36 |
| variance_applied | -4.7608 | 36 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "partial_attribution",
"sample_size": 36,
"top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
"ranking": [
{
"stage": "enhanced_prediction",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 44.0,
"games": 36
},
{
"stage": "simulation_result",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 21.0,
"games": 36
},
{
"stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
"games": 36
},
{
"stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
"games": 36
},
{
"stage": "capped_target",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
"games": 36
},
{
"stage": "variance_applied",
"total_toward_pick_run_delta": -4.7608,
"games": 36
}
],
"interpretation": "Largest recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}Are Overs performing worse than Unders?
not_measurable sample=0
The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "not_measurable",
"sample_size": 0,
"reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
"missing_fields": [
"total_line",
"total_selection",
"odds",
"settled_result"
]
}Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?
not_measurable sample=0
Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "not_measurable",
"sample_size": 0,
"reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
"missing_fields": [
"prop_family",
"prop_line",
"selection",
"odds",
"settled_result"
]
}Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?
not_measurable sample=0
No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "not_measurable",
"sample_size": 0,
"reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
"missing_fields": [
"sportsbook",
"selection_odds",
"settled_profit"
],
"books": []
}Which confidence ranges underperform?
measured sample=60
| Range | Sample Size | Hits | Misses | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [0.000, 0.525) | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0.3333 |
| [0.525, 0.550) | 19 | 11 | 8 | 0.5789 |
| [0.550, 0.600) | 20 | 15 | 5 | 0.75 |
| [0.600, 1.010) | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.5333 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "measured",
"sample_size": 60,
"minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
"worst_observed_range": {
"range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
"sample_size": 6,
"hits": 2,
"misses": 4,
"accuracy": 0.3333
},
"ranges": [
{
"range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
"sample_size": 6,
"hits": 2,
"misses": 4,
"accuracy": 0.3333
},
{
"range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
"sample_size": 19,
"hits": 11,
"misses": 8,
"accuracy": 0.5789
},
{
"range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
"sample_size": 20,
"hits": 15,
"misses": 5,
"accuracy": 0.75
},
{
"range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
"sample_size": 15,
"hits": 8,
"misses": 7,
"accuracy": 0.5333
}
]
}Which monitored features are drifting?
insufficient_sample sample=96
Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.
| Date | Sample Size | Mean Confidence | Mean Predicted Total | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260805 | 15 | 0.5703 | 7.5333 | 0.6429 |
| 20260806 | 11 | 0.5932 | 7.0 | 0.875 |
| 20260807 | 15 | 0.589 | 7.4 | 0.75 |
| 20260808 | 15 | 0.5837 | 7.0 | 0.3846 |
| 20260809 | 15 | 0.5527 | 6.8 | 0.6429 |
| 20260810 | 10 | 0.5892 | 7.7 | 0.0 |
| 20260811 | 15 | 0.5776 | 7.6 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "insufficient_sample",
"sample_size": 96,
"minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
"minimum_recent_sample": 20,
"reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
"daily_monitors": [
{
"date": "20260805",
"sample_size": 15,
"mean_confidence": 0.5703,
"mean_predicted_total": 7.5333,
"accuracy": 0.6429
},
{
"date": "20260806",
"sample_size": 11,
"mean_confidence": 0.5932,
"mean_predicted_total": 7.0,
"accuracy": 0.875
},
{
"date": "20260807",
"sample_size": 15,
"mean_confidence": 0.589,
"mean_predicted_total": 7.4,
"accuracy": 0.75
},
{
"date": "20260808",
"sample_size": 15,
"mean_confidence": 0.5837,
"mean_predicted_total": 7.0,
"accuracy": 0.3846
},
{
"date": "20260809",
"sample_size": 15,
"mean_confidence": 0.5527,
"mean_predicted_total": 6.8,
"accuracy": 0.6429
},
{
"date": "20260810",
"sample_size": 10,
"mean_confidence": 0.5892,
"mean_predicted_total": 7.7,
"accuracy": 0.0
},
{
"date": "20260811",
"sample_size": 15,
"mean_confidence": 0.5776,
"mean_predicted_total": 7.6,
"accuracy": null
}
],
"features_monitored": [
"confidence",
"predicted_total",
"winner_accuracy"
]
}Which model version introduced errors?
insufficient_sample sample=60
Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.
| Pipeline Version | Model Schema Version | Policy Version | Sample Size | Hits | Misses | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | historical_game_temporal_v7 | model_winner_simulation_score_v1 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 0.6 |
Complete structured answer
{
"status": "insufficient_sample",
"sample_size": 60,
"minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
"versions": [
{
"pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
"model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v7",
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"sample_size": 60,
"hits": 36,
"misses": 24,
"accuracy": 0.6
}
],
"reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}Every reviewed game
| Date | Game | Pick | Final confidence | Raw confidence | Empirical hit rate | Empirical weight | Pred A-H | Actual A-H | Result | Largest recorded movement | Pipeline | Roadmap signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260805 | 20260805_CHW@BOS | BOS | 64.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-6.0 | 0-4 | hit | simulation_result (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
"confidence_calibration": {},
"h2h_base_feature": {},
"recent_quality_blend": {},
"score_distribution": {
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.028681709546287612
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.028564235824146147
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.026059885491866108
},
{
"home_runs": 5,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.025953150161380688
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 4,
"probability": 0.02573991244376512
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.03926086802225825,
"1": 0.06725509762299912,
"2": 0.10060129799272069,
"3": 0.13139989781508413,
"4": 0.14986476511971533,
"5": 0.14925095331926957,
"6": 0.12979194983977355,
"7": 0.09855790569135224,
"8": 0.06535039884356862,
"9": 0.037837121117794185,
"10": 0.019129384406183926,
"11": 0.008444947815220889,
"12": 0.0032554123940595012
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.07782451253364074,
"1": 0.1288279027305037,
"2": 0.1738893426420072,
"3": 0.1913839422053344,
"4": 0.17175426407403702,
"5": 0.12568373001517316,
"6": 0.07499289093266925,
"7": 0.036486367800841156,
"8": 0.014474736586793727,
"9": 0.004682310478999907
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution"
},
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "CHW 3 - 4 BOS",
"winner": "BOS"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6,
"score_text": "CHW 2 - 6 BOS",
"winner": "BOS"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": -1,
"home_run_delta": 2,
"total_run_delta": 1,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6,
"winner": "BOS",
"model_winner": "BOS",
"simulation_winner": "BOS",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 6
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 4,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.2857,
"winner": "BOS",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
} |
| 20260805 | 20260805_DET@SEA | DET | 60.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-2.0 | 2-4 | miss | enhanced_prediction (4.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
"confidence_calibration": {},
"h2h_base_feature": {},
"recent_quality_blend": {},
"score_distribution": {
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 6,
"probability": 0.029303360324271725
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.029219750884647268
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 6,
"probability": 0.027718277756394627
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 5,
"probability": 0.027639190933418642
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 7,
"probability": 0.026334666424448455
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.11073071246248627,
"1": 0.17782993886843282,
"2": 0.21917836361829263,
"3": 0.20732252867026374,
"4": 0.15050513938131013,
"5": 0.08385175937573344,
"6": 0.035853292528741275,
"7": 0.011765270746846518,
"8": 0.002962994347893256
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.025363924135989147,
"1": 0.0440159381101382,
"2": 0.06844992224750929,
"3": 0.0953905682252408,
"4": 0.11912622850011317,
"5": 0.13331494223368948,
"6": 0.13369640981216846,
"7": 0.12015176128566808,
"8": 0.09676315440640651,
"9": 0.069832786796609,
"10": 0.045162524440582504,
"11": 0.02617378468665143,
"12": 0.013593281829123139,
"13": 0.006326326425406241,
"14": 0.0026384468647045
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution"
},
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "DET 6 - 2 SEA",
"winner": "DET"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"score_text": "DET 5 - 2 SEA",
"winner": "DET"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"away_run_delta": -1,
"home_run_delta": 0,
"total_run_delta": -1,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
"final_decision_policy": {
"policy_version": "model_winner_simulation_score_v1",
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2,
"winner": "DET",
"model_winner": "DET",
"simulation_winner": "DET",
"simulation_winner_agrees": true,
"simulation_score_enabled": true,
"simulation_usage": "organic_score_same_winner",
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"model_score": {
"away_runs": 6,
"home_runs": 2
},
"simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 5,
"home_runs": 2
}
},
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 4,
"final_margin": 3,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.5291,
"winner": "DET",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
} |
| 20260805 | 20260805_LAA@BAL | BAL | 53.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-5.0 | 2-5 | hit | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
"confidence_calibration": {},
"h2h_base_feature": {},
"recent_quality_blend": {},
"score_distribution": {
"most_likely": [
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.0356822214241097
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.03469368839855183
},
{
"home_runs": 3,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.0346354420929685
},
{
"home_runs": 4,
"away_runs": 2,
"probability": 0.03367590882970137
},
{
"home_runs": 2,
"away_runs": 3,
"probability": 0.030617143470549328
}
],
"home_distribution": {
"0": 0.06491296548696802,
"1": 0.10869158310853035,
"2": 0.15183495108643272,
"3": 0.17695342316295296,
"4": 0.17205114141588934,
"5": 0.13956210874365574,
"6": 0.09444715116389113,
"7": 0.05332385976326078,
"8": 0.02511687866303315,
"9": 0.009870090450393316,
"10": 0.003235846954992299
},
"away_distribution": {
"0": 0.09235625536170713,
"1": 0.1508757934675782,
"2": 0.19573196988155125,
"3": 0.20164753405900848,
"4": 0.16497305335441192,
"5": 0.10718204973796257,
"6": 0.055299353305913866,
"7": 0.022657239501555886,
"8": 0.007371958589928279,
"9": 0.001904792740382283
},
"model": "overdispersed_score_distribution"
},
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
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| 20260805 | 20260805_LAD@CHC | CHC | 58.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-5.0 | 6-7 | hit | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_MIA@ATL | ATL | 53.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-6.0 | 1-4 | hit | simulation_result (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_MIN@KC | MIN | 53.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-3.0 | 1-2 | miss | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_NYM@CLE | NYM | 59.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-1.0 | 6-5 | hit | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_OAK@CIN | CIN | 66.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-7.0 | 2-3 | hit | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_PIT@MIL | MIL | 56.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-4.0 | 2-4 | hit | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_SD@ARI | SD | 56.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (-1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_SF@TEX | TEX | 57.7% | — | — | — | 2.0-4.0 | 0-6 | hit | enhanced_prediction (-1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_STL@NYY | NYY | 53.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-6.0 | 3-1 | miss | simulation_result (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_TB@COL | TB | 58.0% | — | — | — | 6.0-4.0 | 4-0 | hit | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_TOR@HOU | HOU | 56.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | 5-4 | miss | variance_applied (-0.8877) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260805 | 20260805_WAS@PHI | PHI | 52.7% | — | — | — | 3.0-5.0 | 10-4 | miss | simulation_result (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_CHW@BOS | BOS | 58.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (-1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_DET@SEA | DET | 67.3% | — | — | — | 3.0-1.0 | 11-0 | hit | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_LAA@BAL | BAL | 58.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-4.0 | 4-1 | miss | simulation_result (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_MIA@ATL | ATL | 58.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | embedded_savant_run_environment (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_MIN@KC | MIN | 53.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-3.0 | 4-3 | hit | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_NYM@CLE | NYM | 66.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-2.0 | 13-6 | hit | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_OAK@CIN | CIN | 58.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-6.0 | 5-6 | hit | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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} |
| 20260806 | 20260806_PIT@MIL | MIL | 56.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-5.0 | 2-5 | hit | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_SD@ARI | ARI | 67.3% | — | — | — | 3.0-5.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_TOR@CHC | CHC | 57.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | 2-3 | hit | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260806 | 20260806_WAS@PHI | PHI | 54.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-6.0 | 3-7 | hit | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_ATL@NYY | ATL | 64.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-3.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_BAL@TEX | TEX | 51.1% | — | — | — | 3.0-5.0 | 1-2 | hit | simulation_result (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_CHC@KC | CHC | 64.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-2.0 | 6-4 | hit | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_CIN@WAS | WAS | 53.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-4.0 | 3-5 | hit | simulation_result (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_CLE@CHW | CLE | 51.7% | — | — | — | 5.0-4.0 | 8-2 | hit | variance_applied (-0.3491) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_COL@STL | STL | 66.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | embedded_savant_run_environment (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_DET@SF | DET | 66.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-2.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_HOU@SD | SD | 55.7% | — | — | — | 4.0-5.0 | - | pending_actual | variance_applied (-0.1116) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_LAA@MIA | MIA | 66.0% | — | — | — | 1.0-5.0 | 4-3 | miss | simulation_result (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_LAD@ARI | LAD | 64.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (-2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_MIN@MIL | MIL | 60.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-5.0 | 8-6 | miss | simulation_result (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_NYM@PIT | NYM | 52.8% | — | — | — | 3.0-2.0 | 6-4 | hit | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_OAK@BOS | BOS | 56.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-6.0 | 1-13 | hit | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_TB@SEA | TB | 53.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-3.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260807 | 20260807_TOR@PHI | PHI | 60.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-6.0 | - | pending_actual | simulation_result (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_ATL@NYY | ATL | 53.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-2.0 | 4-5 | miss | simulation_result (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_BAL@TEX | TEX | 53.5% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | 1-5 | hit | variance_applied (-0.7709) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_CHC@KC | CHC | 66.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-2.0 | 3-6 | miss | enhanced_prediction (5.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_CIN@WAS | CIN | 51.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-3.0 | 2-8 | miss | variance_applied (0.3298) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_CLE@CHW | CHW | 70.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | 3-6 | hit | enhanced_prediction (4.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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} |
| 20260808 | 20260808_COL@STL | STL | 70.0% | — | — | — | 1.0-5.0 | 8-6 | miss | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_DET@SF | DET | 56.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-3.0 | 8-0 | hit | simulation_result (-1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_HOU@SD | HOU | 66.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-4.0 | 2-3 | miss | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_LAA@MIA | MIA | 60.0% | — | — | — | 1.0-4.0 | 0-7 | hit | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_LAD@ARI | LAD | 64.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (-2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_MIN@MIL | MIL | 53.0% | — | — | — | 1.0-6.0 | 3-4 | hit | simulation_result (4.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_NYM@PIT | NYM | 51.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-2.0 | 0-9 | miss | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_OAK@BOS | BOS | 56.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-5.0 | 7-3 | miss | enhanced_prediction (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_TB@SEA | TB | 53.0% | — | — | — | 6.0-1.0 | - | pending_actual | simulation_result (4.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260808 | 20260808_TOR@PHI | PHI | 53.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-5.0 | 7-5 | miss | simulation_result (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_ATL@NYY | NYY | 51.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | 2-1 | miss | enhanced_prediction (-1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_BAL@TEX | TEX | 57.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-5.0 | 10-5 | miss | simulation_result (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_CHC@KC | CHC | 53.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-2.0 | 10-2 | hit | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_CIN@WAS | WAS | 57.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-4.0 | 1-7 | hit | simulation_result (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_CLE@CHW | CHW | 56.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-3.0 | 3-5 | hit | variance_applied (0.2383) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_COL@STL | STL | 66.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-6.0 | 4-7 | hit | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_DET@SF | DET | 56.0% | — | — | — | 5.0-3.0 | 3-1 | hit | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_HOU@SD | HOU | 51.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-3.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_LAA@MIA | MIA | 56.0% | — | — | — | 1.0-6.0 | 3-12 | hit | simulation_result (3.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_LAD@ARI | LAD | 53.0% | — | — | — | 7.0-1.0 | 2-4 | miss | simulation_result (5.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_MIN@MIL | MIL | 56.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-4.0 | 3-4 | hit | enhanced_prediction (-2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_NYM@PIT | PIT | 60.0% | — | — | — | 3.0-4.0 | 11-1 | miss | variance_applied (-0.1492) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_OAK@BOS | BOS | 51.0% | — | — | — | 1.0-3.0 | 4-3 | miss | enhanced_prediction (-1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_TB@SEA | TB | 53.0% | — | — | — | 4.0-3.0 | 4-1 | hit | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260809 | 20260809_TOR@PHI | PHI | 53.0% | — | — | — | 2.0-4.0 | 6-7 | hit | embedded_savant_run_environment (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260810 | 20260810_BAL@MIN | BAL | 58.0% | 63.2% | 54.7% | 50.0% | 5.0-4.0 | 5-9 | miss | variance_applied (0.6642) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260810 | 20260810_BOS@TOR | BOS | 54.0% | 83.3% | 54.8% | 50.0% | 4.0-2.0 | 1-2 | miss | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260810 | 20260810_COL@ARI | ARI | 56.9% | 56.0% | 57.9% | 50.0% | 3.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260811 | 20260811_KC@LAD | LAD | 59.2% | 63.1% | 55.3% | 50.0% | 3.0-4.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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| 20260811 | 20260811_MIL@SD | MIL | 60.0% | 65.7% | 57.5% | 50.0% | 4.0-3.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (-1.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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"simulation_score": {
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},
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"winner": "NYY",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
} |
| 20260811 | 20260811_TB@OAK | TB | 66.0% | 92.0% | 54.7% | 50.0% | 5.0-2.0 | - | pending_actual | enhanced_prediction (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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"raw_confidence": 0.92,
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"score_text": "TB 6 - 2 OAK",
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},
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"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.108,
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},
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}
}
} |
| 20260811 | 20260811_TEX@LAA | TEX | 53.0% | 55.3% | 52.3% | 50.0% | 3.0-2.0 | - | pending_actual | simulation_result (2.0) | enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season | Signals{
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"home_net_margin": 10.0,
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"home_average_margin": 2.0,
"home_run_delta": 0.0577,
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"evidence": [
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{
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{
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{
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"score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 LAA",
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},
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"score_text": "TEX 4 - 1 LAA",
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},
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},
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"model_score": {
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},
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},
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"winner": "TEX",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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}
} |
Starting-pitcher component quality
| H | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| R | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| ER | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| BB | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| SO | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| HR | {
"mae": null,
"bias_predicted_minus_actual": null
} | ||
| IP_outs | {
"mae_outs": null,
"mae_innings": null,
"bias_outs": null
} | ||
IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.
| Date | Game | Side | Pred starter | Actual starter | Match | Pred IP | Actual IP | Δ outs | Pred ER | Actual ER | Δ ER | H P/A | BB P/A | SO P/A | All context |
|---|