Continuous postgame learning

daily_20261003 · dates 20261003 · generated 2026-10-04T09:00:14.224415+00:00

4-0

Winner picks · 100.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

5/8

Starter ER within ±1

2/8

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20261003	4	4	0	4	0	4	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	4	applied games: 4formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	4	available games: 4
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	4	variance multipliers: [2.25]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	4	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	4	configured window: 10last 10 games: 4observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	4	settled games: 4metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.4705.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	4	52.9%	100.0%	-47.0%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	4	2.6276	5.2553	1.1178	100.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	4	2.625	5.25	0.75	100.0%	-0.0026	-0.3678
enhanced_prediction	4	2.125	4.25	0.75	100.0%	-0.5026	-0.3678
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	1.875	3.75	0.75	100.0%	-0.7526	-0.3678
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	1.875	3.75	0.75	100.0%	-0.7526	-0.3678
capped_target	4	1.875	3.75	0.75	100.0%	-0.7526	-0.3678
simulation_result	4	1.875	3.75	0.75	100.0%	-0.7526	-0.3678
published_final	4	1.875	3.75	0.75	100.0%	-0.7526	-0.3678

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 4,
  "team_run_mae": 2.625,
  "total_run_mae": 5.25,
  "margin_mae": 0.75,
  "winner_hits": 4,
  "winner_accuracy": 1.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0026,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.3678
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

insufficient_sample sample=0

No settled miss predictions were available.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "top_stage": null,
  "reason": "No settled miss predictions were available.",
  "ranking": [],
  "interpretation": "No attribution claim can be made without settled games."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	4	2	0	2	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.1442	-0.8448	0.2994	1.989	4	2	2	0	reinforced final pick
enhanced_prediction	0.0	-2.0	-2.0	2.0	4	0	2	2	moved away from final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.1442,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.8448,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.2994,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.989,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	2	2	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	2	2	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	0	0
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 2,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 0,
    "accuracy": 1.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20261003	4	0.5295	8.0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20261003",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5295,
      "mean_predicted_total": 8.0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=4

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	4	4	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20261003_ATL@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreATL 4 - 5 LAD

Final confidence54.7%

Calibrationraw 59.8% → blended 59.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.2% · weight 50.0% · n=459

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6096

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.4669950633445845-5.887453590703506	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.093384,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.546692,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.546692,
    "away_win_probability": 0.453308
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.093384,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.546692285,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.597692,
    "sample_size": 459,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5817,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.589696,
    "published_confidence": 0.546692,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5802,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.664,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020286602876242513
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019844809488443825
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019833664882420794
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01940173539406224
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018704375468971954
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.052919983399183614,
      "1": 0.07836158878234728,
      "2": 0.10459581148303007,
      "3": 0.12584990209090946,
      "4": 0.13649570871625613,
      "5": 0.13344817567938594,
      "6": 0.11760717330278227,
      "7": 0.09342917414207082,
      "8": 0.06690502473180449,
      "9": 0.04318793992986577,
      "10": 0.025130074098572937,
      "11": 0.013181127990904703,
      "12": 0.0062321645628381364,
      "13": 0.002656151090048298
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06596937904702013,
      "1": 0.0968621198279498,
      "2": 0.12605182833747278,
      "3": 0.1453877903934454,
      "4": 0.14862447374381416,
      "5": 0.13465929312730648,
      "6": 0.10813491363944308,
      "7": 0.07696249740114328,
      "8": 0.04854851753850212,
      "9": 0.02714290963653067,
      "10": 0.013449942744312465,
      "11": 0.005907015046905457,
      "12": 0.0022993195161541756
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0282,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5467,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.572,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5467,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.664,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0282,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.25,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-8133e99fc8d4e4c7",
      "config_hash": "sha256:1ad22b058ac7f786856b2afec11660ade914953b5b660a1d45855a0be03d5ccc",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261003_CHW@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHW

Published scoreCHW 4 - 2 CLE

Final confidence52.3%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=816

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1605

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.879317721946314-3.620441997905461	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.045996,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.522998,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.477002,
    "away_win_probability": 0.522998
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.045996,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 4-2 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.52299845,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 816,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5625,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5363,
    "published_confidence": 0.522998,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2685,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024123071990349864
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023947733670324038
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023626350419972117
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023454622515970646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021564449350636655
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07527066869262464,
      "1": 0.10984503663694313,
      "2": 0.14034756752826408,
      "3": 0.1569998111291837,
      "4": 0.15376700592243828,
      "5": 0.13185511270545647,
      "6": 0.0989921094020718,
      "7": 0.06506897582890725,
      "8": 0.03744701042906975,
      "9": 0.01886818476210655,
      "10": 0.00832363211363857,
      "11": 0.003214884849295648
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07239621156605851,
      "1": 0.10585436186611731,
      "2": 0.136034157903003,
      "3": 0.15365032490708377,
      "4": 0.1525335189774158,
      "5": 0.13308937714838545,
      "6": 0.1020628736012266,
      "7": 0.06879208733811652,
      "8": 0.04075261476169347,
      "9": 0.021218699733757104,
      "10": 0.009710203942530603,
      "11": 0.003905568254611897
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0059,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1605,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.523,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5732,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.523,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1605,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.04,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0059,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.25,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
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    "changes": [
      {
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        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T16:37:00.677039+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-03T17:00:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.472943,
      "confidence": 0.527057,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.472869,
      "confidence": 0.527131,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2778,
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        "season_quality_edge": -0.2685,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.04,
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.879317721946314,
      "home_runs": 3.620441997905461,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261003_NYY@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreNYY 3 - 4 TB

Final confidence51.8%

Calibrationraw 49.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=815

H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1757

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.330188683970775-4.7654968017036134	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.03673,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.518365,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.518365,
    "away_win_probability": 0.481635
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.03673,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB",
    "confidence": 0.5183652275,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.490254,
    "sample_size": 815,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.526127,
    "published_confidence": 0.518365,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2853,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.028,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1757
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02330248749325166
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023222854227010863
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023083427806788986
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023004543148967774
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02066254278454156
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06999058682318827,
      "1": 0.10249378597138088,
      "2": 0.1323218909937819,
      "3": 0.15060594794232982,
      "4": 0.15112238935098274,
      "5": 0.13368779528801952,
      "6": 0.10426318154822485,
      "7": 0.0716879971844097,
      "8": 0.043454842844252925,
      "9": 0.023222350849202135,
      "10": 0.010940834359288339,
      "11": 0.004544341558133142,
      "12": 0.0016640552868057948
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07285450579554124,
      "1": 0.1064917431133728,
      "2": 0.13672721079437586,
      "3": 0.15419612933151472,
      "4": 0.15274657782956022,
      "5": 0.13290735191451863,
      "6": 0.10157948820433715,
      "7": 0.06819342994486619,
      "8": 0.04021226616538831,
      "9": 0.020828311363539215,
      "10": 0.009476087743101751,
      "11": 0.0037868977998838016
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0269,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.182,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5184,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5631,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5184,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.028,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0269,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.330188683970775,
      "home_runs": 4.7654968017036134,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20261003_SD@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreSD 4 - 6 MIL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 55.1% → blended 55.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=285

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.723

Simulation variance2.25

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7426866281279048-6.328560068290372	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.550696,
    "sample_size": 285,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5579,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.554298,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.723
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015995938487533404
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01545657949509333
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015329711421689577
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015265038729009327
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015112039256447262
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04163467869456087,
      "1": 0.062098513857551475,
      "2": 0.08470706519929076,
      "3": 0.105674573295292,
      "4": 0.12056848661537828,
      "5": 0.12580837579928966,
      "6": 0.12005983459530394,
      "7": 0.10478481837500872,
      "8": 0.0836395000878033,
      "9": 0.06105720656452228,
      "10": 0.04076381976334636,
      "11": 0.024890020459036263,
      "12": 0.013899144616141106,
      "13": 0.007098446816851556,
      "14": 0.0033155152606234553
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04305153530911173,
      "1": 0.0641529926971978,
      "2": 0.08726944454139246,
      "3": 0.10837385371575123,
      "4": 0.12285811176635984,
      "5": 0.12714525869925203,
      "6": 0.12011950047393098,
      "7": 0.1035962128712133,
      "8": 0.08156263641812865,
      "9": 0.058621327049306816,
      "10": 0.03846245932843129,
      "11": 0.023037506384625633,
      "12": 0.012596529304155715,
      "13": 0.006287577457857363,
      "14": 0.0028650539832850465
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.25,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.063,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6585,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.723,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.124,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.063,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 10,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-27T09:06:54.240008+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:53760a5ddffc6f180dee92a59d27889f1cdba857749a59d2378ee233c5952253"
    },
    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.15,
        "new_value": 2.25,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T23:36:26.074095+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-10-04T00:30:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.576129,
      "confidence": 0.576129,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.576989,
      "confidence": 0.576989,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
          "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.550696,
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        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5579,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
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        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
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        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 285,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5579,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5545,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.723,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          },
          "margin": 1,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 30,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
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        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
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        "home_average_margin": -1.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
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        "evidence": [
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          {
            "home_margin": -9.0
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 162,
          "wins": 103,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.6358024691358025,
          "runs_scored": 832,
          "runs_allowed": 618,
          "run_differential": 214,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3209876543209877,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 162,
          "wins": 91,
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          "runs_allowed": 681,
          "run_differential": 41,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.25308641975308643,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0679,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0741,
        "quality_edge": 0.723,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.179,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
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        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3037,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
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        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20261003	20261003_ATL@LAD	LAD	54.7%	59.8%	58.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.597692, "sample_size": 459, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5817, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.589696, "published_confidence": 0.546692, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5802, "recent_quality_edge": 0.664, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6096 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020286602876242513 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019844809488443825 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019833664882420794 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01940173539406224 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018704375468971954 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.052919983399183614, "1": 0.07836158878234728, "2": 0.10459581148303007, "3": 0.12584990209090946, "4": 0.13649570871625613, "5": 0.13344817567938594, "6": 0.11760717330278227, "7": 0.09342917414207082, "8": 0.06690502473180449, "9": 0.04318793992986577, "10": 0.025130074098572937, "11": 0.013181127990904703, "12": 0.0062321645628381364, "13": 0.002656151090048298 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06596937904702013, "1": 0.0968621198279498, "2": 0.12605182833747278, "3": 0.1453877903934454, "4": 0.14862447374381416, "5": 0.13465929312730648, "6": 0.10813491363944308, "7": 0.07696249740114328, "8": 0.04854851753850212, "9": 0.02714290963653067, "10": 0.013449942744312465, "11": 0.005907015046905457, "12": 0.0022993195161541756 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0282, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.314, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6096, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261003	20261003_CHW@CLE	CHW	52.3%	51.0%	56.2%	50.0%	4.0-2.0	3-0	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 816, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5625, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5363, "published_confidence": 0.522998, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2685, "recent_quality_edge": 0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1605 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024123071990349864 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023947733670324038 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023626350419972117 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023454622515970646 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021564449350636655 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07527066869262464, "1": 0.10984503663694313, "2": 0.14034756752826408, "3": 0.1569998111291837, "4": 0.15376700592243828, "5": 0.13185511270545647, "6": 0.0989921094020718, "7": 0.06506897582890725, "8": 0.03744701042906975, "9": 0.01886818476210655, "10": 0.00832363211363857, "11": 0.003214884849295648 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07239621156605851, "1": 0.10585436186611731, "2": 0.136034157903003, "3": 0.15365032490708377, "4": 0.1525335189774158, "5": 0.13308937714838545, "6": 0.1020628736012266, "7": 0.06879208733811652, "8": 0.04075261476169347, "9": 0.021218699733757104, "10": 0.009710203942530603, "11": 0.003905568254611897 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 2 CLE", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0059, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.03, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1605, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261003	20261003_NYY@TB	TB	51.8%	49.0%	56.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	0-1	hit	Variance Applied (0.5647)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.490254, "sample_size": 815, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.526127, "published_confidence": 0.518365, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": -2.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0808, "away_run_delta": 0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2853, "recent_quality_edge": 0.028, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1757 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02330248749325166 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023222854227010863 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023083427806788986 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023004543148967774 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02066254278454156 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06999058682318827, "1": 0.10249378597138088, "2": 0.1323218909937819, "3": 0.15060594794232982, "4": 0.15112238935098274, "5": 0.13368779528801952, "6": 0.10426318154822485, "7": 0.0716879971844097, "8": 0.043454842844252925, "9": 0.023222350849202135, "10": 0.010940834359288339, "11": 0.004544341558133142, "12": 0.0016640552868057948 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07285450579554124, "1": 0.1064917431133728, "2": 0.13672721079437586, "3": 0.15419612933151472, "4": 0.15274657782956022, "5": 0.13290735191451863, "6": 0.10157948820433715, "7": 0.06819342994486619, "8": 0.04021226616538831, "9": 0.020828311363539215, "10": 0.009476087743101751, "11": 0.0037868977998838016 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0269, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.182, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1757, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20261003	20261003_SD@MIL	MIL	53.0%	55.1%	55.8%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.550696, "sample_size": 285, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5579, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.554298, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.179, "recent_quality_edge": -0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.723 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015995938487533404 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01545657949509333 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015329711421689577 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015265038729009327 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015112039256447262 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04163467869456087, "1": 0.062098513857551475, "2": 0.08470706519929076, "3": 0.105674573295292, "4": 0.12056848661537828, "5": 0.12580837579928966, "6": 0.12005983459530394, "7": 0.10478481837500872, "8": 0.0836395000878033, "9": 0.06105720656452228, "10": 0.04076381976334636, "11": 0.024890020459036263, "12": 0.013899144616141106, "13": 0.007098446816851556, "14": 0.0033155152606234553 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04305153530911173, "1": 0.0641529926971978, "2": 0.08726944454139246, "3": 0.10837385371575123, "4": 0.12285811176635984, "5": 0.12714525869925203, "6": 0.12011950047393098, "7": 0.1035962128712133, "8": 0.08156263641812865, "9": 0.058621327049306816, "10": 0.03846245932843129, "11": 0.023037506384625633, "12": 0.012596529304155715, "13": 0.006287577457857363, "14": 0.0028650539832850465 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.25, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 4 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.063, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.334, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.723, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.375, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.375 }
R	{ "mae": 1.25, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.25, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.625, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.625 }
SO	{ "mae": 1.75, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.25 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.25 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 5.25, "mae_innings": 1.75, "bias_outs": 3.75 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20261003

20261003_ATL@LAD

away

Dylan Dodd

True

5.2

3.0

-8

-3

3/2

3/0

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.682119205298013,
      "WHIP": 0.9139072847682119,
      "IP": 50.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 49,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2871,
      "sample_weight": 0.672,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9756,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0365,
      "walk_factor": 0.9731,
      "homer_factor": 0.9948,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.26,
      "xwoba": 0.273,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 29.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 46,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 50.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.682,
      "season_WHIP": 0.914,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.373,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6748,
        "prior_weight": 0.3252
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "689266",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 49,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 77.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 4.0,
            "Pitches": 15.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 0.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 138.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.1,
            "SO": 1.0,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 3.8,
            "Pitches": 13.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8214,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.32143
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 49,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 197.0,
            "Pitches": 793.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3061,
            "R": 0.3061,
            "H": 0.6531,
            "BB": 0.2857,
            "SO": 1.0816,
            "HR": 0.1429,
            "BF": 4.0204,
            "Pitches": 16.1837
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6821,
            "WHIP": 0.9139,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29801,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63576,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27815,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05298,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13907
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.298,
        "predicted_H": 2.143,
        "predicted_BB": 0.469,
        "predicted_SO": 2.676,
        "predicted_HR": 0.512,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6395,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0374
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4874,
      "form_weight": 0.5126,
      "form_reliability": 0.6748,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.373,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6748,
        "prior_weight": 0.3252
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.298,
          "final": 2.6149,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.143,
          "final": 3.0481,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.469,
          "final": 1.7026,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.676,
          "final": 4.2961,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.512,
          "final": 1.2372,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6395,
          "final": 4.6395,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0374,
          "final": 1.0374,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 9.1,
        "ER": 5,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.821428571428572,
        "WHIP": 0.9642857142857144,
        "K9": 9.642857142857144,
        "HR9": 2.8928571428571432,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-10-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.00867242009206,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 10.373,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6748,
          "prior_weight": 0.3252
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689266",
      "player_name": "Dylan Dodd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 5,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "better_metrics": 4,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0195,
        "defense_index": 1.1626,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6173,
        "runs_scored": 801.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
        "offense_index": 1.1006,
        "defense_index": 1.213,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3566
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2008,
        "offense_edge": 0.0195,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1006,
        "defense_strength": 0.1626,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.213,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9928,
        "run_prevention": 1.0099,
        "strikeout": 0.9859
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "689266",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "689266",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 168.0,
            "k_percent": 27.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.2,
            "woba": 0.26,
            "xwoba": 0.273,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0941,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4986,
            "whiff_percent": 29.5,
            "swing_percent": 54.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5212,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6493,
            "regression_edge": -0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6143,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0466
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "689266",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 13,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 13,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.69542798085439,
              "release_spin_rate": 2142.6259128208435,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 13,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.69542798085439,
                "release_spin_rate": 2142.6259128208435,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.6954,
              "release_spin_rate": 2142.6259,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0466,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3325,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2871,
          "sample_weight": 0.672,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9756,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0365,
          "walk_factor": 0.9731,
          "homer_factor": 0.9948,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "689266",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9836,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9836,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9819,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9965,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0245,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_ATL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_ATL@LAD

home

Tarik Skubal

True

6.1

6.0

-1

5/2

1/2

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.722689075630252,
      "WHIP": 0.9642857142857143,
      "IP": 158.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.103,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7622,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9352,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
      "walk_factor": 0.904,
      "homer_factor": 0.934,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 4.4,
      "woba": 0.264,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
      "whiff_percent": 31.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.0625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 925.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 92.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6129,
            "WHIP": 1.0484,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83871,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20968,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12903,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 158.2,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 186.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 620.0,
            "Pitches": 2356.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8462,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8462,
            "BB": 1.0385,
            "SO": 7.1538,
            "HR": 0.5385,
            "BF": 23.8462,
            "Pitches": 90.6154
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7227,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30252,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17017,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.964,
        "predicted_H": 5.451,
        "predicted_BB": 1.394,
        "predicted_SO": 6.703,
        "predicted_HR": 0.509,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8164,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0904
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.964,
          "final": 1.5609,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.451,
          "final": 5.2624,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.394,
          "final": 1.2292,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.703,
          "final": 5.9909,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.509,
          "final": 0.2962,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8164,
          "final": 2.8164,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0904,
          "final": 1.0904,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.6129032258064515,
        "WHIP": 1.0483870967741935,
        "K9": 10.161290322580646,
        "HR9": 0.5806451612903226,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-25T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7813918454232848,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.4,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.4,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6173,
        "runs_scored": 801.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 201.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2407,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9444,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7037,
        "offense_index": 1.1006,
        "defense_index": 1.213,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3566
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5802,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 626.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5802,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8642,
        "offense_index": 1.0195,
        "defense_index": 1.1626,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1558
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2008,
        "offense_edge": 0.1006,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0195,
        "defense_strength": 0.213,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1626,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0136,
        "run_prevention": 0.9718,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 569.0,
            "k_percent": 30.0,
            "bb_percent": 4.4,
            "woba": 0.264,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.3556,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4848,
            "whiff_percent": 31.7,
            "swing_percent": 53.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.851,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0729,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9286,
            "bb_edge": 1.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.155
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.63147798168428,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.3742821287633,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.63147798168428,
                "release_spin_rate": 2173.3742821287633,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6315,
              "release_spin_rate": 2173.3743,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.155,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1069,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7622,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9352,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0823,
          "walk_factor": 0.904,
          "homer_factor": 0.934,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669373",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9352,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9352,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.904,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0823,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_ATL@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_CHW@CLE

away

Hagen Smith

True

5.0

2.2

-7

2/0

2/3

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 0.8709677419354839,
      "WHIP": 0.9032258064516129,
      "IP": 31.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.5,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4803,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9592,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
      "walk_factor": 1.0477,
      "homer_factor": 0.921,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.3,
      "bb_percent": 14.5,
      "woba": 0.211,
      "xwoba": 0.243,
      "barrel_percent": 1.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 36.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 60,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 31.0,
      "season_ERA": 0.871,
      "season_WHIP": 0.903,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.389,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.561,
        "prior_weight": 0.439
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 30.0,
            "Pitches": 127.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.0,
            "Pitches": 25.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.2273,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.13636,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09091,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 68.0,
            "Pitches": 272.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.3,
            "R": 0.3,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 2.3,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.8,
            "Pitches": 27.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 0.7778,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 503.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.1667,
            "R": 0.1667,
            "H": 0.6667,
            "BB": 0.8889,
            "SO": 2.3333,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.6667,
            "Pitches": 27.9444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.871,
            "WHIP": 0.9032,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.09677,
            "H_per_IP": 0.3871,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51613,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35484,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 0.922,
        "predicted_H": 2.134,
        "predicted_BB": 1.302,
        "predicted_SO": 3.314,
        "predicted_HR": 0.197,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7256,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1281
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5355,
      "form_weight": 0.4645,
      "form_reliability": 0.561,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.389,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.561,
        "prior_weight": 0.439
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.922,
          "final": 0.4283,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.134,
          "final": 2.0622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.302,
          "final": 1.6758,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.314,
          "final": 4.2168,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.197,
          "final": 0.0915,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7256,
          "final": 2.7256,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1281,
          "final": 1.1281,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 18.0,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.5,
        "WHIP": 0.7777777777777778,
        "K9": 11.5,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7886905883945785,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.389,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.561,
          "prior_weight": 0.439
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "player_name": "Hagen Smith",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0655,
        "defense_index": 1.0115,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 162,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5247,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
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          "run_differential": 21.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0655,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9881,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696146",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696146",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.243,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 1.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.8598,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4182,
            "whiff_percent": 36.2,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.312,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
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          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 1.2621,
            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
            "barrel_edge": 1.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.5714,
            "bb_edge": -1.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0374
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696146",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 30,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 30,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
              "release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 30,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.19609326567674,
                "release_spin_rate": 2396.9610928315874,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2396.9611,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4803,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
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          "strikeout_factor": 1.0674,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "696146",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9645,
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        }
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 0,
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      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_CHW@CLE

home

Parker Messick

True

6.0

4.1

-5

-1

5/4

1/2

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.275,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
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      "floor_IP": 6.0,
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      "season_ERA": 2.56,
      "season_WHIP": 1.063,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 9.0,
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            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 5.6,
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            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3421,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35526,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23684,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26316,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11842
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
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            "R": 16.0,
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            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
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            "Pitches": 940.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
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            "H": 4.9,
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            "SO": 6.5,
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            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.21176,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14706,
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        },
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 57.0,
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            "SO": 193.0,
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            "BF": 747.0,
            "Pitches": 2948.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.6562,
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            "H": 4.6562,
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            "BF": 23.3438,
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            "WHIP": 1.0626,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.79964,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26297,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03578,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09123
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.865,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.38,
        "predicted_SO": 6.238,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.0793,
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    },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.0793,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.2162,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 16,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 12,
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        "K9": 10.323529411764707,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7740246727477629,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5247,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0679,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1852,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1173,
        "offense_index": 0.9309,
        "defense_index": 1.0919,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1343
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5185,
        "runs_scored": 776.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 1.0655,
        "defense_index": 1.0115,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.128
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0063,
        "offense_edge": -0.0691,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0655,
        "defense_strength": 0.0919,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0115,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0004,
        "run_prevention": 1.001,
        "strikeout": 0.9949
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 705.0,
            "k_percent": 25.8,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.274,
            "xwoba": 0.275,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3542,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.484,
            "whiff_percent": 25.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7912,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3829,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0429,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0142
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.117481056101,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0953611307837,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.117481056101,
                "release_spin_rate": 2107.0953611307837,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1175,
              "release_spin_rate": 2107.0954,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0142,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1013,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5409,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.954,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.9086,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9086,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_NYY@TB

away

Gerrit Cole

True

5.2

5.0

-2

7/5

3/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6141732283464565,
      "WHIP": 1.1023622047244095,
      "IP": 127.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.773,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0289,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
      "walk_factor": 0.912,
      "homer_factor": 1.06,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.2,
      "bb_percent": 4.8,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.8,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0824,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91765,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31765
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.661,
            "WHIP": 1.1186,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40678,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9322,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18644,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98305,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18644
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.0,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 131.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 519.0,
            "Pitches": 1951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3182,
            "R": 2.3636,
            "H": 5.2273,
            "BB": 1.1364,
            "SO": 5.9545,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.5909,
            "Pitches": 88.6818
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6142,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.0315,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1912
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.785,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.669,
          "final": 6.6672,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.518,
          "final": 5.2962,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.298,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3502,
          "final": 4.3502,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1912,
          "final": 1.1912,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
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        "BB": 11,
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        "HR9": 1.6779661016949154,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9010610635752805,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543037",
      "player_name": "Gerrit Cole",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": -1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 1.0,
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 161,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5776,
        "runs_scored": 739.0,
        "runs_allowed": 601.0,
        "run_differential": 138.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7329,
        "offense_index": 1.0221,
        "defense_index": 1.2031,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1709
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 98,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.6049,
        "runs_scored": 736.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5309,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5432,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0123,
        "offense_index": 1.0116,
        "defense_index": 1.1193,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1542
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0167,
        "offense_edge": 0.0221,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0116,
        "defense_strength": 0.2031,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1193,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0063,
        "run_prevention": 0.9807,
        "strikeout": 0.9996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543037",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543037",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 470.0,
            "k_percent": 25.2,
            "bb_percent": 4.8,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.4104,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5024,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.08,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2243,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 1.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1217
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543037",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.03748624523112,
                "release_spin_rate": 2372.6649530903105,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.0375,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.665,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1217,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8693,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0289,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9954,
          "walk_factor": 0.912,
          "homer_factor": 1.06,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "543037",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9954,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_NYY@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_NYY@TB

home

Drew Rasmussen

True

6.0

8.0

-2

1/1

3/2

5/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.6686046511627906,
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                "release_spin_rate": 2355.1143668897917,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3759,
              "release_spin_rate": 2355.1144,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1407,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0047,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5597,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9524,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
          "walk_factor": 0.912,
          "homer_factor": 0.9183,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "656876",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9524,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9524,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9183,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_NYY@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_SD@MIL

away

Robbie Ray

True

5.0

2.2

-7

-1

6/4

1/2

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.585513078470825,
      "WHIP": 1.352112676056338,
      "IP": 165.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.311,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 3.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3171,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.027,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
      "walk_factor": 1.056,
      "homer_factor": 1.0311,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 12.0,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 427.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9559,
            "WHIP": 1.5882,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66176,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13235
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 87.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5918,
            "WHIP": 1.449,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5102,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87755,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79592,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 165.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 84.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 702.0,
            "Pitches": 2854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.129,
            "R": 2.3871,
            "H": 4.5161,
            "BB": 2.7097,
            "SO": 4.5161,
            "HR": 0.7097,
            "BF": 22.6452,
            "Pitches": 92.0645
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5855,
            "WHIP": 1.3521,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39839,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50704,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1328
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.71,
        "predicted_H": 4.548,
        "predicted_BB": 2.718,
        "predicted_SO": 4.055,
        "predicted_HR": 0.679,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9495,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4744
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.71,
          "final": 2.8285,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.548,
          "final": 5.1414,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.718,
          "final": 2.0159,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.055,
          "final": 4.0325,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.679,
          "final": 0.8102,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9495,
          "final": 4.9495,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4744,
          "final": 1.4744,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.591836734693878,
        "WHIP": 1.4489795918367347,
        "K9": 7.163265306122449,
        "HR9": 1.2857142857142858,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-23T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0140366775496839,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.992,
        "defense_index": 1.0687,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 103,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6358,
        "runs_scored": 832.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 214.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
        "offense_index": 1.1432,
        "defense_index": 1.1777,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3822
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1938,
        "offense_edge": -0.008,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1432,
        "defense_strength": 0.0687,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1777,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9886,
        "run_prevention": 1.0257,
        "strikeout": 0.9827
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 657.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 12.0,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.7395,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9885,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3086,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3114,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0857,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0765
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.49794587706354,
              "release_spin_rate": 2136.9723176433495,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.49794587706354,
                "release_spin_rate": 2136.9723176433495,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4979,
              "release_spin_rate": 2136.9723,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0765,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5465,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3171,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.027,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
          "walk_factor": 1.056,
          "homer_factor": 1.0311,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "592662",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.027,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.027,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.056,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0311,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_SD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20261003

20261003_SD@MIL

home

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

4.0

-6

4/4

4/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.803435114503817,
      "WHIP": 0.8015267175572519,
      "IP": 174.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.822,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.3589,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8845,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1594,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.836,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 37.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.216,
      "xwoba": 0.226,
      "barrel_percent": 3.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
      "whiff_percent": 37.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 174.2,
      "season_ERA": 1.803,
      "season_WHIP": 0.802,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20261003",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 379.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 75.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2817,
            "WHIP": 1.0986,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71831,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.26761,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 209.0,
            "Pitches": 839.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.9,
            "Pitches": 83.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3049,
            "WHIP": 0.9146,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2561,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62195,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29268,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22561,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07317
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 174.2,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 96.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 252.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 665.0,
            "Pitches": 2647.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.1667,
            "R": 1.4333,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.4667,
            "SO": 8.4,
            "HR": 0.4667,
            "BF": 22.1667,
            "Pitches": 88.2333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8034,
            "WHIP": 0.8015,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54962,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25191,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44275,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08015
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.475,
        "predicted_H": 3.652,
        "predicted_BB": 1.735,
        "predicted_SO": 6.469,
        "predicted_HR": 0.382,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5393,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0303
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.475,
          "final": 1.2801,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.652,
          "final": 3.7948,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.735,
          "final": 2.6645,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.469,
          "final": 5.4558,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.382,
          "final": 0.2252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5393,
          "final": 2.5393,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0303,
          "final": 1.0303,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 67,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.304878048780488,
        "WHIP": 0.9146341463414634,
        "K9": 11.03048780487805,
        "HR9": 0.6585365853658537,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7433951892470456,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 103,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6358,
        "runs_scored": 832.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 214.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.321,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8148,
        "offense_index": 1.1432,
        "defense_index": 1.1777,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3822
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 162,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5617,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2531,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4568,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2037,
        "offense_index": 0.992,
        "defense_index": 1.0687,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1884
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1938,
        "offense_edge": 0.1432,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.008,
        "defense_strength": 0.1777,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0687,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0134,
        "run_prevention": 0.9713,
        "strikeout": 1.0065
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 614.0,
            "k_percent": 37.9,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.216,
            "xwoba": 0.226,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4985,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9527,
            "whiff_percent": 37.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6432,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6247,
            "command_and_miss": 1.7507,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": 1.7286,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
                "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 97.5351,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.6403,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.3589,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.8845,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1594,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 0.836,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8845,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.8845,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.836,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.1594,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20261003_SD@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}