Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260925 · dates 20260925 · generated 2026-09-26T09:00:18.215844+00:00

11-6
Winner picks · 64.7%
26
Comparable starters · 4 identity mismatches
12/26
Starter ER within ±1
16/26
Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

DateGamesSettledPendingHitsMissesCalibration tracesReview statusPipeline versions
202609251717011617Availableenhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

PriorityChangeStatusObserved gamesEvidence
P1Empirical Confidence BlendImplemented And Applied17
applied games: 17formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)*raw+w_emp*empirical_hit_rate
P1H2H Base FeatureImplemented And Monitored17
available games: 12
P2Score Distribution WideningImplemented Above 1.4X17
variance multipliers: [2.15]
P2Simulation Flip ControlDiagnostic Only Without Independent Support17
simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3Recent Form Quality BlendImplemented Last 1017
configured window: 10last 10 games: 17observed windows: [10]
P3Continuous Calibration AuditImplemented17
settled games: 17metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1302.

BucketGamesAverage confidenceObserved hit rateCalibration errorDirection
0.50-0.551252.1%50.0%2.1%overconfident
0.55-0.60356.1%100.0%-43.9%underconfident
0.60-0.65163.6%100.0%-36.4%underconfident
0.70-0.80172.3%100.0%-27.7%underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

StageGamesTeam-run MAETotal-run MAEMargin MAEWinner accuracyΔ team MAE vs baseΔ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml172.61294.39852.864670.6%0.00.0
variance_applied172.58824.47062.823558.8%-0.0247-0.0411
enhanced_prediction172.70594.58822.705964.7%0.093-0.1587
embedded_savant_run_environment172.73534.64712.764758.8%0.1224-0.0999
fundamental_edge_target_review172.73534.64712.764764.7%0.1224-0.0999
capped_target172.73534.64712.764764.7%0.1224-0.0999
simulation_result172.73534.64712.764764.7%0.1224-0.0999
published_final172.73534.64712.764764.7%0.1224-0.0999
Largest measured regression
{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 17,
  "team_run_mae": 2.7353,
  "total_run_mae": 4.6471,
  "margin_mae": 2.7647,
  "winner_hits": 10,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.5882,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1224,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0999
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StagePositive Toward Pick Run DeltaNegative Away From Pick Run DeltaNet Toward Pick Run DeltaAbsolute Run MovementGames RecordedGames Supporting PickGames Opposing PickGames UnchangedMeaning
enhanced_prediction7.0-1.06.08.06312reinforced final pick
variance_applied1.9411-0.26231.67882.20346510reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review1.00.01.01.06105reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment0.0-1.0-1.01.06015moved away from final pick
capped_target0.00.00.00.06006recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result0.00.00.00.06006recorded but did not change score margin
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 8.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.9411,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.2623,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.6788,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.2034,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=11

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

StagePositive Toward Pick Run DeltaNegative Away From Pick Run DeltaNet Toward Pick Run DeltaAbsolute Run MovementGames RecordedGames Supporting PickGames Opposing PickGames UnchangedMeaning
enhanced_prediction8.00.08.08.011506reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment3.0-1.02.04.011218reinforced final pick
variance_applied2.7581-1.05781.70033.815911740reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review1.00.01.01.0111010reinforced final pick
capped_target0.00.00.00.0110011recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result0.00.00.00.0110011recorded but did not change score margin
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 11,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 8.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.7581,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0578,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.7003,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.8159,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 7,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=17

RangeSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
[0.000, 0.525)7430.5714
[0.525, 0.550)5230.4
[0.550, 0.600)3301.0
[0.600, 1.010)2201.0
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 17,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 5,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.4
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5714
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=17

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

DateSample SizeMean ConfidenceMean Predicted TotalAccuracy
20260925170.54699.11760.6471
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 17,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260925",
      "sample_size": 17,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5469,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.1176,
      "accuracy": 0.6471
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=17

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline VersionModel Schema VersionPolicy VersionSample SizeHitsMissesAccuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_seasonhistorical_game_temporal_v11model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3171160.6471
Complete structured answer
{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 17,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 17,
      "hits": 11,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.6471
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260925_ARI@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickARI
Published scoreARI 6 - 5 SD
Final confidence50.5%
Calibrationraw 56.2% → blended 55.3%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523
H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2662
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.146106105521381-4.399300110465504Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction6-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment6-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review6-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target6-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.010526,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505263,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494737,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505263
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010526,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5052634125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.562385,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.552693,
    "published_confidence": 0.505263,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2264,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.34,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2662
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015420692009506983
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015144155865786473
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01500391994392834
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014734857689171729
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014491478771724792
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03740153235375832,
      "1": 0.05694317617099317,
      "2": 0.07926905775701784,
      "3": 0.10089634195196107,
      "4": 0.11742399791045702,
      "5": 0.12495338362812441,
      "6": 0.12157629265428042,
      "7": 0.10815820907982143,
      "8": 0.08797915686815286,
      "9": 0.06543495687637856,
      "10": 0.044498929360447324,
      "11": 0.027669354027124837,
      "12": 0.01573106751290352,
      "13": 0.008177623023210952,
      "14": 0.003886920825368275
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036167179629637405,
      "1": 0.055110485612127495,
      "2": 0.07691271730980481,
      "3": 0.09831196916347609,
      "4": 0.11509566257829211,
      "5": 0.12341156006947943,
      "6": 0.12119844558077128,
      "7": 0.1090140764674444,
      "8": 0.08980746393642598,
      "9": 0.06776206116479289,
      "10": 0.046827945636553236,
      "11": 0.029639298856079604,
      "12": 0.017182053567285565,
      "13": 0.009122765974583592,
      "14": 0.004436314453245906
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0664,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.27,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_ATL@MIA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickATL
Published scoreATL 5 - 4 MIA
Final confidence53.4%
Calibrationraw 58.4% → blended 57.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=692
H2H base featurehome net -27.0 · absolute 27.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5343
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.797926768614407-4.066974455322697Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.068862,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.534431,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.465569,
    "away_win_probability": 0.534431
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.068862,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.53443146,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.583966,
    "sample_size": 692,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.571583,
    "published_confidence": 0.534431,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -27.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 27.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1558,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1558,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8522,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.056,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5343
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "probability": 0.020285078938493704
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0359,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.294,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5343,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5344,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.569,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5344,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5343,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.056,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0359,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 4
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.452344,
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      "predicted_score": {
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_BAL@NYY

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickNYY
Published scoreBAL 5 - 6 NYY
Final confidence50.5%
Calibrationraw 52.9% → blended 53.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8719
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.333537292709107-2.988694556506531Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-6Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-6Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.529428,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.536214,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.195,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.272,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8719
  },
  "score_distribution": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022009582096405682
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      },
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06054926658475804,
      "1": 0.09075941243733304,
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      "3": 0.14196110922309743,
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      "5": 0.1370029548479875,
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      "11": 0.0067937354764917605,
      "12": 0.002698790892186283
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06108432733519885,
      "1": 0.09152800090711886,
      "2": 0.12145954599365472,
      "3": 0.14274563120965383,
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      "5": 0.13695744812946098,
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      "7": 0.08083928561931825,
      "8": 0.05176319991647352,
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      "12": 0.00258315618314448
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0759,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.482,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5681,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.272,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0759,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 9
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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        "starter_experience": {
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
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          "games": 159,
          "wins": 92,
          "losses": 67,
          "win_pct": 0.5786163522012578,
          "runs_scored": 731,
          "runs_allowed": 588,
          "run_differential": 143,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.89937106918239,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BAL",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.49056603773584906,
          "runs_scored": 705,
          "runs_allowed": 731,
          "run_differential": -26,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.16352201257861634,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.0629,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0881,
        "quality_edge": 0.8719,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.195,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.195,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.272,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.8719
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3662,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3662,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.8719,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.195,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.83,
          "home_runs": 3.853,
          "home_win_probability": 0.502
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_BAL@NYY_2

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickNYY
Published scoreBAL 5 - 6 NYY
Final confidence51.2%
Calibrationraw 59.2% → blended 56.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523
H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8719
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.092527306142445-3.4948662360516636Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-6Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-6Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-6Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.023158,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.511579,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.511579,
    "away_win_probability": 0.488421
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.023158,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.511579326875,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.591659,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56733,
    "published_confidence": 0.511579,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.195,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.272,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8719
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018551983898029433
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01783951877847235
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017659134434098524
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      {
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.041155139496962714,
      "1": 0.062498132980194326,
      "2": 0.08633781905680889,
      "3": 0.10849910820496826,
      "4": 0.12403445070530135,
      "5": 0.12898807197997325,
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      "14": 0.0025924623935643636
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "6": 0.11623860432106896,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0398,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.482,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8719,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5116,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6181,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5116,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8719,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.272,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0398,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.8333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 5,
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      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_CHC@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickCHC
Published scoreCHC 5 - 4 BOS
Final confidence50.5%
Calibrationraw 53.1% → blended 53.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4141
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.057087310443244-4.794800530805316Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 5 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.530624,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.536812,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.348,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021230142237254074
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.02011890447842574
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      {
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        "probability": 0.020020392152814363
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.505,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.978373,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.0385,
        "calibration_sample_size": 523,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5416,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.4141,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.495,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.978373,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.495,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.505
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 17,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": false,
        "sample_size": 0,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 85,
          "losses": 74,
          "win_pct": 0.5345911949685535,
          "runs_scored": 681,
          "runs_allowed": 602,
          "run_differential": 79,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.4968553459119497,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 88,
          "losses": 71,
          "win_pct": 0.5534591194968553,
          "runs_scored": 841,
          "runs_allowed": 695,
          "run_differential": 146,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9182389937106918,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4214,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0189,
        "quality_edge": -0.4141,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.348,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.021230142237254074
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          {
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
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  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.057087310443244,
      "home_runs": 4.794800530805316,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_CHC@BOS_2

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickBOS
Published scoreCHC 3 - 4 BOS
Final confidence55.7%
Calibrationraw 59.0% → blended 57.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=661
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4141
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.424909965439013-4.608170197934953Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.114006,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.557003,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.557003,
    "away_win_probability": 0.442997
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.114006,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5570027,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.590453,
    "sample_size": 661,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5673,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578877,
    "published_confidence": 0.557003,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4497,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.348,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4141
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022883902309619373
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022300440031448186
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022005519226039497
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02144445275205058
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021274668160883685
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05419078155210037,
      "1": 0.08158117768957553,
      "2": 0.10979656948585376,
      "3": 0.13210577908836746,
      "4": 0.14209837353668922,
      "5": 0.13664402375709,
      "6": 0.11746985217649279,
      "7": 0.09028101791930182,
      "8": 0.06202984797922113,
      "9": 0.03810125064929383,
      "10": 0.02092242360250402,
      "11": 0.010271148184195618,
      "12": 0.004507754379314493
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07500342124696387,
      "1": 0.11133183115902234,
      "2": 0.1436280685609426,
      "3": 0.1610426758594168,
      "4": 0.15693663112681794,
      "5": 0.13291970319481847,
      "6": 0.09784442599783737,
      "7": 0.06259858357622866,
      "8": 0.034807642751832756,
      "9": 0.016821565426368458,
      "10": 0.007065451099750694
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 3 - 4 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0657,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.348,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "BOS",
    "display_confidence": 0.557,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5448,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.557,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4141,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.348,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0657,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "enhanced_shadow"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T20:36:53.340813+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T21:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.567062,
      "confidence": 0.567062,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
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}

20260925_CIN@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickTOR
Published scoreCIN 3 - 5 TOR
Final confidence63.6%
Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=225
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4693
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.7825489954943703-5.740196267817406Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-6Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction3-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment3-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review3-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target3-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result3-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
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    "confidence": 0.271698,
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  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.271698,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-3",
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    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
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    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.635849,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
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  "confidence_calibration": {
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  "h2h_base_feature": {
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "home_distribution": {
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      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
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      "winner": "TOR"
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0907,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TOR",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
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      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
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          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.46540880503144655,
          "runs_scored": 655,
          "runs_allowed": 814,
          "run_differential": -159,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.7044,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0189,
        "quality_edge": 0.4693,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7327,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.7327,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.4693
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.1971,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.1971,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.4693,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.7327,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 5.331,
          "home_win_probability": 0.7172
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 5.740196267817406,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_CLE@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCLE
Published scoreCLE 4 - 3 KC
Final confidence56.0%
Calibrationraw 69.0% → blended 62.8%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.6% · weight 50.0% · n=664
H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9415
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.8442163656742485-4.311813318055901Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 KC",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.689611,
    "sample_size": 664,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5663,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.627955,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8648,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.084,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9415
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "probability": 0.02378647591348404
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      {
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      {
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        "probability": 0.02150338565245724
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09144376739496698,
      "1": 0.13414697593153246,
      "2": 0.16705764298849005,
      "3": 0.17660805138432376,
      "4": 0.1584941853941267,
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      "6": 0.07808993539066926,
      "7": 0.04287202108258354,
      "8": 0.019980738591260826,
      "9": 0.007905107943481975,
      "10": 0.0026549891915905945
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.12175767460149862,
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      "5": 0.13426111334683735,
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      "9": 0.04683241901163993,
      "10": 0.02774687802177968,
      "11": 0.014814569584072854,
      "12": 0.007128059733651943,
      "13": 0.0030907295312367225
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 3 KC",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0961,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.154,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9415,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6337,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9415,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.084,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0961,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 15,
        "range": 12
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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      "parameters": {
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-25T23:38:18.666938+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-25T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.404233,
      "confidence": 0.595767,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260925_COL@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickCHW
Published scoreCOL 4 - 9 CHW
Final confidence72.3%
Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 86.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 62.9% · weight 17.5% · n=35
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4592
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.7990225622717353-5.756673340712128Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-6Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-8Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-9Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-9Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-9Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-9Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
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  "published_prediction": {
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    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "confidence": 0.446024,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.723012,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.723012,
    "away_win_probability": 0.276988
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.446024,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 9-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.723012,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "published_after_governors": true,
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  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "season_quality_edge": 1.7453,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.928,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 9 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0595,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.928,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 5,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 9
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 9
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 5,
      "final_margin": 5,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 9,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "display_confidence": 0.723,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.723,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0595,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.5157232704402516,
          "runs_scored": 760,
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          "run_differential": 52,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.3270440251572327,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
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          "games": 159,
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          "losses": 102,
          "win_pct": 0.3584905660377358,
          "runs_scored": 740,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -1.1823899371069182,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.5094,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1572,
        "quality_edge": 1.4592,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.7453,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.7453,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.928,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.4592
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.6129,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.6129,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.4592,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.7453,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 9.745,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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    },
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
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      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_HOU@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickHOU
Published scoreHOU 5 - 4 OAK
Final confidence53.9%
Calibrationraw 59.8% → blended 57.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=692
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8479
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.658857225734885-4.438546231273523Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied6-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.078852,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.539426,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.460574,
    "away_win_probability": 0.539426
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.078852,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.5394261025,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.597999,
    "sample_size": 692,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5607,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.57935,
    "published_confidence": 0.539426,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2075,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8479
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01755232536968844
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017314689855584806
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01679435671437361
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      {
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        "probability": 0.0167062092164391
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      {
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        "probability": 0.016566983103880262
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04990178313939189,
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      "13": 0.0026293983598728757
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.040338801821690404,
      "1": 0.061292369562411436,
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      "3": 0.10687820434099529,
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      "5": 0.12819165544381986,
      "6": 0.12201213061743413,
      "7": 0.10575921864530531,
      "8": 0.08348441796269869,
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      "10": 0.03929123743268476,
      "11": 0.023426035627347172,
      "12": 0.012719611884267325,
      "13": 0.006289569026129545,
      "14": 0.0028323041142805784
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.023,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.11,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5394,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5934,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5394,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8479,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.18,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.023,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
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        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T01:36:26.132951+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-26T01:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.445431,
      "confidence": 0.554569,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "total_runs": 9
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        "away": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "score_evolution": [
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
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      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_LAA@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickLAA
Published scoreLAA 4 - 3 SEA
Final confidence51.8%
Calibrationraw 57.8% → blended 56.7%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=765
H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1915
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.219275795822143-3.6499849370451876Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-4Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-3Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-3Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-3Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-3Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.036032,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.518016,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.481984,
    "away_win_probability": 0.518016
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.036032,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 3 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.51801626,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.578224,
    "sample_size": 765,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.566912,
    "published_confidence": 0.518016,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
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        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2925,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "final_confidence": 0.5249,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5249,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.985057,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 765,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5543,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1915,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.475064,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.425967,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.985057,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.475064,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.524936
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 21,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 1.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.2,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SEA",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 74,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.46540880503144655,
          "runs_scored": 644,
          "runs_allowed": 708,
          "run_differential": -64,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025157232704403,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 61,
          "losses": 98,
          "win_pct": 0.3836477987421384,
          "runs_scored": 641,
          "runs_allowed": 732,
          "run_differential": -91,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5723270440251572,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1698,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0818,
        "quality_edge": 0.1915,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2925,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.2925,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.004,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1915
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.0031709491960701503
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "home_runs": 3.6499849370451876,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_LAD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickLAD
Published scoreLAD 6 - 2 SF
Final confidence56.6%
Calibrationraw 70.8% → blended 62.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=225
H2H base featurehome net -21.0 · absolute 21.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6281
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.309093746445778-3.2617839559142237Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-3Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-3Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment6-2Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review6-2Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target6-2Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result6-2Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.13217,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.566085,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.433915,
    "away_win_probability": 0.566085
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.13217,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-2",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 2 SF",
    "confidence": 0.56608495,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.707507,
    "sample_size": 225,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5511,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.629303,
    "published_confidence": 0.566085,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -21.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 21.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1212,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1212,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0503,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.844,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.6281
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021617409322024078
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02107832412217367
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02068439688621547
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02016857872951201
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.020105743242268933
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07869104693961267,
      "1": 0.11650075122911502,
      "2": 0.14912280570992986,
      "3": 0.1650332090768202,
      "4": 0.15791033722403067,
      "5": 0.1306356514502164,
      "6": 0.09343827403218008,
      "7": 0.057782967004837614,
      "8": 0.030894900883361526,
      "9": 0.014281890944736158,
      "10": 0.005708165505159845
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04343938324546503,
      "1": 0.06586512847369266,
      "2": 0.09056832894523185,
      "3": 0.11293955830289505,
      "4": 0.12772171273941635,
      "5": 0.13098823832457585,
      "6": 0.12182846928044673,
      "7": 0.10275765680636106,
      "8": 0.07860108047833068,
      "9": 0.05452450836519607,
      "10": 0.03430077394209542,
      "11": 0.019568836243371145,
      "12": 0.010124532931694182,
      "13": 0.0047504408447376,
      "14": 0.0020213510764902362
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 2 SF",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0597,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.194,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6281,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5661,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5661,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6281,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.844,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0597,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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  ]
}

20260925_NYM@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickWAS
Published scoreNYM 4 - 5 WAS
Final confidence51.3%
Calibrationraw 50.0% → blended 52.6%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=697
H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3461
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml5.216824260876499-5.2557534348244035Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied5-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.025484,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.512742,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.512742,
    "away_win_probability": 0.487258
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.025484,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.51274201,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.500403,
    "sample_size": 697,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5509,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.525652,
    "published_confidence": 0.512742,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.500403,
        "sample_size": 697,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.525652,
        "final_confidence": 0.5176,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5176,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.983636,
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        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 697,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5497,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3461,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          "margin": 1,
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          "shrinkage_weight": 0.983636,
          "side_flipped": false,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 17,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
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        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "WAS",
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          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.4716981132075472,
          "runs_scored": 807,
          "runs_allowed": 798,
          "run_differential": 9,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.05660377358490566,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "NYM",
          "games": 159,
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          "losses": 86,
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          "runs_scored": 682,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.22012578616352202,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2767,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0126,
        "quality_edge": 0.3461,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2956,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.44,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "home_runs": 5.2557534348244035,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_PIT@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickPIT
Published scorePIT 5 - 4 DET
Final confidence50.5%
Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=523
H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0251
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml3.7153336510472723-5.048453219706147Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction5-4Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment5-4Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review5-4Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target5-4Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result5-4Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 DET",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50155,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2044,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.308,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0251
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020165295512702915
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01951703531267765
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019281769926318203
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01882998761860547
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018661912705708557
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0551145687363461,
      "1": 0.08291969989389227,
      "2": 0.11138758270551441,
      "3": 0.13359911647943049,
      "4": 0.14307315111465027,
      "5": 0.13680452045387717,
      "6": 0.1167966814126634,
      "7": 0.08903244655401985,
      "8": 0.06059738198419804,
      "9": 0.036825373879283946,
      "10": 0.019981505987337746,
      "11": 0.00968048284219688,
      "12": 0.004187487956589366
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05313629266449516,
      "1": 0.08005118685425801,
      "2": 0.10796984632716583,
      "3": 0.13037531606864838,
      "4": 0.14094395318478484,
      "5": 0.1364129828736201,
      "6": 0.11820154296040165,
      "7": 0.09169565749609052,
      "8": 0.06368432869220024,
      "9": 0.039598119734577455,
      "10": 0.022043204862124497,
      "11": 0.01098583551436156,
      "12": 0.0049017327672717225
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 5 - 4 DET",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0627,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4247,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0251,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PIT",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6203,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0251,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.308,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0627,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
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    {
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  ]
}

20260925_STL@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIL
Published scoreSTL 4 - 5 MIL
Final confidence54.2%
Calibrationraw 63.0% → blended 59.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=807
H2H base featurehome net 10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.297
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.302557082123973-4.814418718422804Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.084544,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.542272,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.542272,
    "away_win_probability": 0.457728
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.084544,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.54227203,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
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  "confidence_calibration": {
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.629601,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          "shrinkage_weight": 0.985818,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 10.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0577,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0577,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "wins": 100,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.6289308176100629,
          "runs_scored": 815,
          "runs_allowed": 608,
          "run_differential": 207,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3018867924528301,
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        "away": {
          "team": "STL",
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          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 82,
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          "runs_scored": 710,
          "runs_allowed": 732,
          "run_differential": -22,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.13836477987421383,
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        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.4403,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1447,
        "quality_edge": 1.297,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.6572,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.628,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.5447,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
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          "quality_edge": 1.297,
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          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
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          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.783,
          "home_runs": 6.741,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
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  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "home_runs": 4.814418718422804,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260925_TB@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss
PickPHI
Published scoreTB 4 - 5 PHI
Final confidence53.5%
Calibrationraw 54.5% → blended 55.2%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=777
H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3461
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.305586808667761-5.091075971633991Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.069456,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.534728,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.534728,
    "away_win_probability": 0.465272
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.069456,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.5347276,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.544574,
    "sample_size": 777,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5586,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.551587,
    "published_confidence": 0.534728,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.4182,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.212,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3461
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021992844724931133
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02166974976278027
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020865101192465617
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02066206861084593
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.020558573812112155
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05639297909467745,
      "1": 0.08476922460065571,
      "2": 0.11357503047095635,
      "3": 0.13563100881982512,
      "4": 0.1443665575330821,
      "5": 0.13696376568880175,
      "6": 0.11581805144117163,
      "7": 0.08729277475545293,
      "8": 0.058642411586064085,
      "9": 0.03511371853542469,
      "10": 0.018740160413737522,
      "11": 0.008914587727973168,
      "12": 0.0037797293321773988
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06635016959839081,
      "1": 0.0990605900509077,
      "2": 0.13004170747773308,
      "3": 0.150102282225678,
      "4": 0.1523403002796641,
      "5": 0.13594561339558078,
      "6": 0.10666906036600156,
      "7": 0.07359268018052652,
      "8": 0.04464302861079972,
      "9": 0.023811982744425923,
      "10": 0.011167612807789402,
      "11": 0.004605194916645022,
      "12": 0.0016697773458576035
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0926,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.212,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3461,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5347,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5906,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5347,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3461,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.212,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0926,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-c1d5650d9262b3dc",
      "config_hash": "sha256:da7e1fc0092c8fca4370044eb58fa5897f6ef528f3b1de083f3bc7a60a53c065",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-982561b127534866",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-24T09:06:53.755755+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
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  ]
}

20260925_TEX@MIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit
PickMIN
Published scoreTEX 4 - 5 MIN
Final confidence54.2%
Calibrationraw 50.3% → blended 52.9%
Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=701
H2H base featurehome net 18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=3
Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1954
Simulation variance2.15
Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target
Score pipeline evolution
StageAway-HomeWhat changed
Historical Ml4.346525038132847-4.698770885514058Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied4-5Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction4-5Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment4-5Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review4-5Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target4-5Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result4-5Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Complete non-empty processing evidence
{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.084524,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.542262,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.542262,
    "away_win_probability": 0.457738
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.084524,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
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            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.502814,
        "sample_size": 701,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.528857
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.528857,
        "final_confidence": 0.5497,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5497,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.983727,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.5029,
        "calibration_sample_size": 701,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5535,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1954,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.54972,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.574033,
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          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.54972,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.54972
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": 18.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
        "home_average_margin": 6.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.1227,
        "away_run_delta": -0.1227,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 10.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "MIN",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 84,
          "win_pct": 0.4716981132075472,
          "runs_scored": 721,
          "runs_allowed": 785,
          "run_differential": -64,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025157232704403,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 159,
          "wins": 79,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4968553459119497,
          "runs_scored": 661,
          "runs_allowed": 701,
          "run_differential": -40,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.25157232704402516,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.1509,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0252,
        "quality_edge": -0.1954,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1887,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1887,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.208,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.1954
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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            "probability": 0.017654977867611027
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        "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.346525038132847,
      "home_runs": 4.698770885514058,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

DateGamePickFinal confidenceRaw confidenceEmpirical hit rateEmpirical weightPred A-HActual A-HResultLargest recorded movementPipelineRoadmap signals
2026092520260925_ARI@SDARI50.5%56.2%54.3%50.0%6.0-5.011-4hitEnhanced Prediction (1.0)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.562385,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.543,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.552693,
    "published_confidence": 0.505263,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2264,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.34,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2662
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015420692009506983
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015144155865786473
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01500391994392834
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014734857689171729
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014491478771724792
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03740153235375832,
      "1": 0.05694317617099317,
      "2": 0.07926905775701784,
      "3": 0.10089634195196107,
      "4": 0.11742399791045702,
      "5": 0.12495338362812441,
      "6": 0.12157629265428042,
      "7": 0.10815820907982143,
      "8": 0.08797915686815286,
      "9": 0.06543495687637856,
      "10": 0.044498929360447324,
      "11": 0.027669354027124837,
      "12": 0.01573106751290352,
      "13": 0.008177623023210952,
      "14": 0.003886920825368275
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036167179629637405,
      "1": 0.055110485612127495,
      "2": 0.07691271730980481,
      "3": 0.09831196916347609,
      "4": 0.11509566257829211,
      "5": 0.12341156006947943,
      "6": 0.12119844558077128,
      "7": 0.1090140764674444,
      "8": 0.08980746393642598,
      "9": 0.06776206116479289,
      "10": 0.046827945636553236,
      "11": 0.029639298856079604,
      "12": 0.017182053567285565,
      "13": 0.009122765974583592,
      "14": 0.004436314453245906
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "ARI 6 - 5 SD",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0664,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.27,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "ARI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2662,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026092520260925_ATL@MIAATL53.4%58.4%55.9%50.0%5.0-4.00-3missVariance Applied (0.269)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.583966,
    "sample_size": 692,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5592,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.571583,
    "published_confidence": 0.534431,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -27.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 27.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1558,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1558,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8522,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.056,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5343
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020285078938493704
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020261888128339216
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01980750476670822
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019784859940722006
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018313289007899764
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06447004704504093,
      "1": 0.09637774876630113,
      "2": 0.12701010712085403,
      "3": 0.14755111685081423,
      "4": 0.15110868774406921,
      "5": 0.13642032543488392,
      "6": 0.10857040115262985,
      "7": 0.07617044940047626,
      "8": 0.04710904578311696,
      "9": 0.025684127147787426,
      "10": 0.012344344379638687,
      "11": 0.005230147790589772,
      "12": 0.0019534513837976856
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04785058623585053,
      "1": 0.07234113831336787,
      "2": 0.0986017669461203,
      "3": 0.12116727497702152,
      "4": 0.134241645806959,
      "5": 0.13408817474913493,
      "6": 0.1207521783402318,
      "7": 0.09803942444140468,
      "8": 0.07176419470467647,
      "9": 0.04736048733393852,
      "10": 0.02817901402797165,
      "11": 0.015115993895288298,
      "12": 0.007310530719046546,
      "13": 0.0031875895089880212
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0359,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.294,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 4 - 5 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.032,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.838,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.297,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026092520260925_TB@PHIPHI53.5%54.5%55.9%50.0%4.0-5.02-0missVariance Applied (0.2145)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.544574,
    "sample_size": 777,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5586,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.551587,
    "published_confidence": 0.534728,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.02066206861084593
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05639297909467745,
      "1": 0.08476922460065571,
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      "5": 0.13696376568880175,
      "6": 0.11581805144117163,
      "7": 0.08729277475545293,
      "8": 0.058642411586064085,
      "9": 0.03511371853542469,
      "10": 0.018740160413737522,
      "11": 0.008914587727973168,
      "12": 0.0037797293321773988
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06635016959839081,
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      "2": 0.13004170747773308,
      "3": 0.150102282225678,
      "4": 0.1523403002796641,
      "5": 0.13594561339558078,
      "6": 0.10666906036600156,
      "7": 0.07359268018052652,
      "8": 0.04464302861079972,
      "9": 0.023811982744425923,
      "10": 0.011167612807789402,
      "11": 0.004605194916645022,
      "12": 0.0016697773458576035
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0926,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.212,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3461,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}
2026092520260925_TEX@MINMIN54.2%50.3%55.5%50.0%4.0-5.02-10hitVariance Applied (0.6478)enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season
Signals
{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.502814,
    "sample_size": 701,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.528857,
    "published_confidence": 0.542262,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
    "home_average_margin": 6.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1227,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1227,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1887,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.208,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1954
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0180177546808895
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017654977867611027
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017478845981287693
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0171269197753214
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01686284750396119
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04259873526506877,
      "1": 0.06462719448205248,
      "2": 0.08901767156046338,
      "3": 0.11132161191908937,
      "4": 0.12639359634264366,
      "5": 0.13029057036003194,
      "6": 0.12193916823141471,
      "7": 0.10361337026275892,
      "8": 0.07993384452349193,
      "9": 0.05598709470015372,
      "10": 0.03560307348349121,
      "11": 0.02055556311997908,
      "12": 0.010774908626396535,
      "13": 0.005127907022567653,
      "14": 0.0022156901003966044
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05100449885124637,
      "1": 0.07694497445091776,
      "2": 0.10420791775237594,
      "3": 0.1266980292321072,
      "4": 0.13828901532245225,
      "5": 0.1355046479482362,
      "6": 0.11919811386114777,
      "7": 0.09413112686464174,
      "8": 0.06673379384150006,
      "9": 0.042472424810719465,
      "10": 0.024267049735708663,
      "11": 0.012447312342171427,
      "12": 0.005731692435786659,
      "13": 0.0023694025509884854
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0542,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.142,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1954,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H
{
  "mae": 1.9231,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.6154
}
R
{
  "mae": 1.8846,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1154
}
ER
{
  "mae": 1.8462,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0769
}
BB
{
  "mae": 1.6923,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2308
}
SO
{
  "mae": 3.0769,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5385
}
HR
{
  "mae": 0.7692,
  "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1538
}
IP_outs
{
  "mae_outs": 3.5385,
  "mae_innings": 1.1795,
  "bias_outs": 0.3846
}

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

DateGameSidePred starterActual starterMatchPred IPActual IPΔ outsPred ERActual ERΔ ERH P/ABB P/ASO P/AAll context
2026092520260925_ARI@SDawayBrandon PfaadtBrandon PfaadtTrue6.07.2554-18/92/24/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7168831168831167,
      "WHIP": 1.1688311688311688,
      "IP": 128.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.944,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0014,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0001,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.948,
      "walk_factor": 0.93,
      "homer_factor": 0.9801,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 112,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 251.0,
            "Pitches": 911.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.1,
            "Pitches": 91.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9842,
            "WHIP": 1.0105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33158,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85263,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15789,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66316,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09474
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.1,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 531.0,
            "Pitches": 1927.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8929,
            "R": 2.0357,
            "H": 4.2857,
            "BB": 1.0714,
            "SO": 3.1071,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 18.9643,
            "Pitches": 68.8214
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7169,
            "WHIP": 1.1688,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41299,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23377,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67792,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.293,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.0489,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1885
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.642,
          "final": 3.2042,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.686,
          "final": 6.644,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.293,
          "final": 1.5857,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.011,
          "final": 3.5924,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.631,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0489,
          "final": 4.0489,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1885,
          "final": 1.1885,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 63.1,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.984210526315789,
        "WHIP": 1.0105263157894737,
        "K9": 5.968421052631578,
        "HR9": 0.8526315789473684,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8217271195671689,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694297",
      "player_name": "Brandon Pfaadt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5346,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0629,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5094,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4465,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
        "defense_index": 1.0055,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0721
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5597,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": 40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3962,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1447,
        "offense_index": 0.9833,
        "defense_index": 1.0787,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1867
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1146,
        "offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0167,
        "defense_strength": 0.0055,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0787,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9962,
        "run_prevention": 1.0025,
        "strikeout": 0.9979
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694297",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694297",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 508.0,
            "k_percent": 16.4,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.338,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4651,
            "whiff_percent": 21.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1963,
            "command_and_miss": -0.36,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0426
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694297",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.10309497222958,
              "release_spin_rate": 2461.9059118108958,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.10309497222958,
                "release_spin_rate": 2461.9059118108958,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.1031,
              "release_spin_rate": 2461.9059,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0426,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3042,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0014,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0001,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.948,
          "walk_factor": 0.93,
          "homer_factor": 0.9801,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694297",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0001,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0001,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.93,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9801,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_ARI@SDhomeCasey MizeCasey MizeTrue4.24.0-23745/72/27/1
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9581151832460733,
      "WHIP": 1.1937172774869111,
      "IP": 127.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.093,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0643,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9945,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 1.0089,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 115,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 401.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 80.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.3529,
            "WHIP": 1.6765,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "H_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22059
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 779.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 2.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 77.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9786,
            "WHIP": 1.4786,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66429,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57857,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
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            "IP": 127.1,
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            "BB": 36.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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            "R": 2.48,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9581,
            "WHIP": 1.1937,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43979,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91099,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28272,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85602,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1178
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.803,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.915,
          "final": 2.9507,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.214,
          "final": 5.124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.803,
          "final": 1.8858,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.302,
          "final": 4.8568,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.896,
          "final": 0.9397,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5549,
          "final": 5.5549,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4859,
          "final": 1.4859,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.2,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 27,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 5.978571428571429,
        "WHIP": 1.4785714285714286,
        "K9": 5.207142857142857,
        "HR9": 1.9285714285714286,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1702938488904773,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "player_name": "Casey Mize",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 4.6667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5597,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": 40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3962,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1447,
        "offense_index": 0.9833,
        "defense_index": 1.0787,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1867
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5346,
        "runs_scored": 717.0,
        "runs_allowed": 707.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0629,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5094,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4465,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
        "defense_index": 1.0055,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0721
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1146,
        "offense_edge": -0.0167,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "defense_strength": 0.0787,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0055,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0066,
        "run_prevention": 0.9878,
        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663554",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663554",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 508.0,
            "k_percent": 20.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.307,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8539,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0019,
            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0901,
            "command_and_miss": -0.045,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0025
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663554",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 74,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 74,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.81822385564924,
              "release_spin_rate": 2090.099354593912,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 74,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.81822385564924,
                "release_spin_rate": 2090.099354593912,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8182,
              "release_spin_rate": 2090.0994,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0025,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0182,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0643,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9945,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 1.0089,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663554",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_ARI@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_ATL@MIAawayRay KerrRay KerrTrue5.03.0-60000/23/15/0
Last 10 before this game (8 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.7608695652173911,
      "WHIP": 0.5217391304347826,
      "IP": 15.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.222,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.222,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2233,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.981,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9969,
      "walk_factor": 0.9343,
      "homer_factor": 0.9737,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 1.8,
      "woba": 0.205,
      "xwoba": 0.266,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 280,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.139,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3856,
        "prior_weight": 0.6144
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 39.0,
            "Pitches": 129.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 7.8,
            "Pitches": 25.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 0.4167,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 55.0,
            "Pitches": 180.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.375,
            "R": 0.375,
            "H": 0.875,
            "BB": 0.125,
            "SO": 1.375,
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            "Pitches": 22.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7609,
            "WHIP": 0.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19565,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45652,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06522,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71739,
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          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 15.1,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
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            "H": 0.875,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7609,
            "WHIP": 0.5217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.19565,
            "H_per_IP": 0.45652,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06522,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13043
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
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        "predicted_BB": 0.846,
        "predicted_SO": 3.108,
        "predicted_HR": 0.533,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4459,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0104
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6096,
      "form_weight": 0.3904,
      "form_reliability": 0.3856,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.139,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3856,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 3.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.348,
          "final": 0.5263,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.712,
          "final": 1.0588,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.846,
          "final": 2.159,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.108,
          "final": 4.2613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.533,
          "final": 0.2081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4459,
          "final": 3.4459,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0104,
          "final": 1.0104,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 15.1,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 11,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 1.7608695652173911,
        "WHIP": 0.5217391304347825,
        "K9": 6.456521739130434,
        "HR9": 1.1739130434782608,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8326982331371388,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.139,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3856,
          "prior_weight": 0.6144
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678061",
      "player_name": "Ray Kerr",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
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            "delta": 0.6667,
            "percent_delta": 0.1539,
            "direction": "boost",
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5849,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7296,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5975,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8679,
        "offense_index": 1.0274,
        "defense_index": 1.1569,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1618
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4906,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0189,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4277,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4088,
        "offense_index": 0.9894,
        "defense_index": 1.015,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0057
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1675,
        "offense_edge": 0.0274,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0106,
        "defense_strength": 0.1569,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.015,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0118,
        "run_prevention": 0.9742,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678061",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678061",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 50.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 1.8,
            "woba": 0.205,
            "xwoba": 0.266,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2755,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7728,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 51.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.0718,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2764,
            "regression_edge": -1.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": 1.825,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0191
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678061",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 25,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 25,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 25,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.52283282543786,
                "release_spin_rate": 2148.8918500733625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5228,
              "release_spin_rate": 2148.8919,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0191,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1363,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2233,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.981,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9969,
          "walk_factor": 0.9343,
          "homer_factor": 0.9737,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.061,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678061",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9704,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_ATL@MIAhomeEury PérezEury PérezTrue5.09.01210-15/12/16/8
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.14,
      "WHIP": 1.2666666666666666,
      "IP": 150.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.321,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0161,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9986,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0423,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 1.0712,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 28.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.08,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.4984,
          "final": 6.4984,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.1,
        "ER": 29,
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        "K9": 9.926470588235293,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1498027774619057,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.8529,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "player_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4906,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0189,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4277,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4088,
        "offense_index": 0.9894,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0057
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5849,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 615.0,
        "run_differential": 116.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7296,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5975,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8679,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1675,
        "offense_edge": -0.0106,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0274,
        "defense_strength": 0.015,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9927,
        "run_prevention": 1.0113,
        "strikeout": 0.9928
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691587",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691587",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 602.0,
            "k_percent": 25.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9293,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2717,
            "whiff_percent": 28.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1512,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3479,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5286,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1642
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691587",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.79616242963277,
              "release_spin_rate": 2525.323439420152,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.79616242963277,
                "release_spin_rate": 2525.323439420152,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.7962,
              "release_spin_rate": 2525.3234,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1642,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.173,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0161,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9986,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0423,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 1.0712,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "691587",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9986,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
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            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0712,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0423,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_ATL@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_BAL@NYYawayTrevor RogersBrandon YoungFalse6.15.0-41104/23/33/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        "profile": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669432",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 96,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_BAL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_BAL@NYYhomeBrendan BeckRyan YarbroughFalse3.02.1-210-12/44/17/5
Last 10 before this game (3 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 8.217391304347826,
      "WHIP": 1.5652173913043477,
      "IP": 7.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6184,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0526,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0026,
      "walk_factor": 1.0504,
      "homer_factor": 1.1687,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.7,
      "bb_percent": 14.7,
      "woba": 0.444,
      "xwoba": 0.435,
      "barrel_percent": 25.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 62.5,
      "whiff_percent": 33.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 667,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.569,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2389,
        "prior_weight": 0.7611
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694341",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 2.3333,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 1.3333,
            "BF": 11.3333,
            "Pitches": 49.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.2174,
            "WHIP": 1.5652,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.52174
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 2.3333,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 1.3333,
            "BF": 11.3333,
            "Pitches": 49.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.2174,
            "WHIP": 1.5652,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.52174
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
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            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 2.3333,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 1.3333,
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            "Pitches": 49.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.2174,
            "WHIP": 1.5652,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.52174
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.24,
        "predicted_H": 3.561,
        "predicted_BB": 1.632,
        "predicted_SO": 3.198,
        "predicted_HR": 0.876,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4757,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4106
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6716,
      "form_weight": 0.3284,
      "form_reliability": 0.2389,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2389,
        "prior_weight": 0.7611
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.24,
          "final": 1.4073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.561,
          "final": 2.5127,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.632,
          "final": 3.2223,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.198,
          "final": 5.7513,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.876,
          "final": 0.9593,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4757,
          "final": 5.4757,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4106,
          "final": 1.4106,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 7.2,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 5,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 8.217391304347826,
        "WHIP": 1.565217391304348,
        "K9": 5.869565217391305,
        "HR9": 4.695652173913044,
        "games_pitched": 3,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-29T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1081784685618115,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.569,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2389,
          "prior_weight": 0.7611
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694341",
      "player_name": "Brendan Beck",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5786,
        "runs_scored": 731.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8994,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5975,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6981,
        "offense_index": 1.0238,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4906,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 731.0,
        "run_differential": -26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1635,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.434,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5975,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.007
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.205,
        "offense_edge": 0.0238,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0126,
        "defense_strength": 0.2143,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0232,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9663,
        "strikeout": 1.0072
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694341",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694341",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.444,
            "xwoba": 0.435,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 58.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 25.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 86.3721,
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            "whiff_percent": 33.3,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -2.3293,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3343,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.5,
            "barrel_edge": -2.5,
            "hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
            "whiff_edge": 1.1857,
            "bb_edge": -1.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.109
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694341",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.9177608311229,
              "release_spin_rate": 2129.730437665782,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.9177608311229,
                "release_spin_rate": 2129.730437665782,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.9178,
              "release_spin_rate": 2129.7304,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.109,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7784,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6184,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0526,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0026,
          "walk_factor": 1.0504,
          "homer_factor": 1.1687,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694341",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0237,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0237,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0227,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0759,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0012,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 72,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_BAL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_CHC@BOSawayClay HolmesDavid PetersonFalse5.25.0-220-22/33/27/6
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.247422680412371,
      "WHIP": 1.1649484536082475,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.706,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0148,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9987,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 0.9607,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.304,
      "barrel_percent": 4.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 82,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0824,
            "WHIP": 1.3059,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07059
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 905.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 90.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4724,
            "WHIP": 1.3067,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49693,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84663,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46012,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80982,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05521
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 74.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 399.0,
            "Pitches": 1535.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0588,
            "R": 2.1176,
            "H": 4.3529,
            "BB": 2.2941,
            "SO": 4.4118,
            "HR": 0.3529,
            "BF": 23.4706,
            "Pitches": 90.2941
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2474,
            "WHIP": 1.1649,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36082,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76289,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40206,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7732,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06186
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.805,
        "predicted_H": 4.619,
        "predicted_BB": 2.614,
        "predicted_SO": 4.786,
        "predicted_HR": 0.462,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5276,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2971
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.805,
          "final": 2.4459,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.619,
          "final": 3.4508,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.614,
          "final": 2.7862,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.786,
          "final": 5.7735,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.462,
          "final": 0.2559,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5276,
          "final": 4.5276,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2971,
          "final": 1.2971,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.47239263803681,
        "WHIP": 1.3067484662576687,
        "K9": 7.288343558282209,
        "HR9": 0.49693251533742333,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-18T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9965531608974887,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605280",
      "player_name": "Clay Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5535,
        "runs_scored": 841.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9182,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2893,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3711,
        "offense_index": 1.1777,
        "defense_index": 1.0275,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1579
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5346,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4969,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.283,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7862,
        "offense_index": 0.9536,
        "defense_index": 1.1863,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0553
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1026,
        "offense_edge": 0.1777,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0464,
        "defense_strength": 0.0275,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1863,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0068,
        "run_prevention": 0.9847,
        "strikeout": 1.0068
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605280",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605280",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 374.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.268,
            "xwoba": 0.304,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.989,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1735,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.398,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3857,
            "regression_edge": -1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0616
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605280",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.76414929025393,
              "release_spin_rate": 2158.927352212928,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.76414929025393,
                "release_spin_rate": 2158.927352212928,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7641,
              "release_spin_rate": 2158.9274,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0616,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4398,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0148,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9987,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 0.9607,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.036,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "605280",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9987,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9607,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9651,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CHC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_CHC@BOShomeAlec GamboaBrayan BelloFalse5.04.0-320-23/44/14/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.1612903225806452,
      "WHIP": 1.064516129032258,
      "IP": 31.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.333,
      "last_start_IP": 1.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1735,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9702,
      "walk_factor": 0.9928,
      "homer_factor": 0.9488,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.269,
      "xwoba": 0.26,
      "barrel_percent": 2.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 17.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 202,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 31.0,
      "season_ERA": 1.161,
      "season_WHIP": 1.065,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.346,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5593,
        "prior_weight": 0.4407
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687941",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.2,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.2,
            "Pitches": 15.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 12.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 49.0,
            "Pitches": 177.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.1,
            "R": 0.1,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 0.9,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.9,
            "Pitches": 17.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.7105,
            "WHIP": 1.1053,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.07895,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71053,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 426.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.2,
            "R": 0.25,
            "H": 1.15,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.1,
            "HR": 0.05,
            "BF": 6.05,
            "Pitches": 21.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.1613,
            "WHIP": 1.0645,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12903,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74194,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32258,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03226
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 0.889,
        "predicted_H": 2.78,
        "predicted_BB": 1.251,
        "predicted_SO": 2.417,
        "predicted_HR": 0.201,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7559,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3887
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5362,
      "form_weight": 0.4638,
      "form_reliability": 0.5593,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.346,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5593,
        "prior_weight": 0.4407
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.889,
          "final": 2.0209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.78,
          "final": 2.898,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.251,
          "final": 2.725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.417,
          "final": 3.2658,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.201,
          "final": 0.0932,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7559,
          "final": 2.7559,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3887,
          "final": 1.3887,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 12.2,
        "ER": 1,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 9,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.7105263157894737,
        "WHIP": 1.105263157894737,
        "K9": 6.394736842105264,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-22T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8181674503322167,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.346,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5593,
          "prior_weight": 0.4407
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687941",
      "player_name": "Alec Gamboa",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5346,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4969,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.283,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7862,
        "offense_index": 0.9536,
        "defense_index": 1.1863,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0553
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5535,
        "runs_scored": 841.0,
        "runs_allowed": 695.0,
        "run_differential": 146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9182,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2893,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3711,
        "offense_index": 1.1777,
        "defense_index": 1.0275,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1579
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1026,
        "offense_edge": -0.0464,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1777,
        "defense_strength": 0.1863,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0275,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9944,
        "run_prevention": 1.0149,
        "strikeout": 0.9827
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687941",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687941",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 109.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.269,
            "xwoba": 0.26,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 2.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.5282,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5564,
            "whiff_percent": 17.2,
            "swing_percent": 51.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8963,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5943,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 1.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1143,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1543
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687941",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 14,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 14,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.61910302178109,
              "release_spin_rate": 2102.104436620148,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 14,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.61910302178109,
                "release_spin_rate": 2102.104436620148,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6191,
              "release_spin_rate": 2102.1044,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1543,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1022,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1735,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9702,
          "walk_factor": 0.9928,
          "homer_factor": 0.9488,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "687941",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9934,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9934,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9968,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.977,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9866,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "WRONG_STARTER",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Wrong starter identity",
      "detail": "The projected MLB player ID differs from the official starter ID; performance errors are not attributable to the projected player."
    },
    {
      "code": "FALSE_CONFIRMATION",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Confirmed flag was false assurance",
      "detail": "The server marked this starter confirmed even though a different player started."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CHC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_CIN@TORawayNick LodoloNick LodoloTrue5.05.002204/71/25/3
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.035369774919614,
      "WHIP": 1.4662379421221865,
      "IP": 103.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.183,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.8407,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0715,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.952,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 1.1163,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.371,
      "xwoba": 0.379,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 188,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 486.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 97.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0233,
            "WHIP": 1.3256,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55814,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87209,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45349,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73256,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24419
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 895.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 89.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0192,
            "WHIP": 1.4615,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55769,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03846,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23077
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 103.2,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 80.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 462.0,
            "Pitches": 1807.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 90.35
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0354,
            "WHIP": 1.4662,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55949,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0418,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7717,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19293
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.031,
        "predicted_H": 5.345,
        "predicted_BB": 2.347,
        "predicted_SO": 4.301,
        "predicted_HR": 1.177,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9424,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3934
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.031,
          "final": 2.583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.345,
          "final": 4.7606,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.347,
          "final": 1.7617,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.301,
          "final": 4.6047,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.177,
          "final": 1.1001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9424,
          "final": 4.9424,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3934,
          "final": 1.3934,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 5.019230769230769,
        "WHIP": 1.4615384615384615,
        "K9": 6.576923076923077,
        "HR9": 2.076923076923077,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.061942200538829,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
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          "predicted_BB": 1,
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          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
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          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 814.0,
        "run_differential": -159.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1195,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1195,
        "offense_index": 0.9206,
        "defense_index": 0.8741,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1873
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4843,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2956,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2956,
        "offense_index": 0.8939,
        "defense_index": 1.0418,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1197
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0676,
        "offense_edge": -0.0794,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1061,
        "defense_strength": -0.1259,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0418,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9978,
        "run_prevention": 0.999,
        "strikeout": 1.0065
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666157",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666157",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 424.0,
            "k_percent": 17.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.371,
            "xwoba": 0.379,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3897,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6818,
            "whiff_percent": 21.3,
            "swing_percent": 45.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2235,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5071,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.9429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5286,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.01
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "666157",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.68483136256282,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.767796156934,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.68483136256282,
                "release_spin_rate": 2271.767796156934,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6848,
              "release_spin_rate": 2271.7678,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.01,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0715,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.8407,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0715,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.952,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 1.1163,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "666157",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0715,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0715,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1163,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_CIN@TORhomeJosé SorianoJosé SorianoTrue6.03.0-93524/81/06/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7170172084130018,
      "WHIP": 1.2619502868068833,
      "IP": 174.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.624,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0113,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.999,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0269,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.0058,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 28.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1,
            "WHIP": 1.1333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 911.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 91.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3136,
            "WHIP": 1.2781,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47929,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94083,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33728,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08876
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 174.1,
            "ER": 72.0,
            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 73.0,
            "SO": 167.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 729.0,
            "Pitches": 2868.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3226,
            "R": 2.5161,
            "H": 4.7419,
            "BB": 2.3548,
            "SO": 5.3871,
            "HR": 0.5484,
            "BF": 23.5161,
            "Pitches": 92.5161
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.717,
            "WHIP": 1.262,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.413,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84321,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41874,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95793,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09751
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.958,
        "predicted_H": 5.266,
        "predicted_BB": 1.926,
        "predicted_SO": 4.941,
        "predicted_HR": 0.677,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5575,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2309
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.958,
          "final": 2.9752,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.266,
          "final": 4.7486,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.926,
          "final": 1.5476,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.941,
          "final": 5.3738,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.677,
          "final": 0.809,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5575,
          "final": 4.5575,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2309,
          "final": 1.2309,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.313609467455621,
        "WHIP": 1.2781065088757395,
        "K9": 7.189349112426036,
        "HR9": 0.7988165680473372,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9779740052725567,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4843,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 683.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2956,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2956,
        "offense_index": 0.8939,
        "defense_index": 1.0418,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1197
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 814.0,
        "run_differential": -159.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1195,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1195,
        "offense_index": 0.9206,
        "defense_index": 0.8741,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1873
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0676,
        "offense_edge": -0.1061,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0794,
        "defense_strength": 0.0418,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1259,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0071,
        "run_prevention": 0.9797,
        "strikeout": 1.0084
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 700.0,
            "k_percent": 22.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0674,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.913,
            "whiff_percent": 28.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0314,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2029,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5429,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1549
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.6295640052384,
              "release_spin_rate": 2055.298636966367,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.6295640052384,
                "release_spin_rate": 2055.298636966367,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6296,
              "release_spin_rate": 2055.2986,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1549,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1064,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0113,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.999,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0269,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.0058,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "667755",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0058,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0269,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CIN@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_CLE@KCawayGavin WilliamsGavin WilliamsTrue5.23.1-73413/50/48/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6298342541436464,
      "WHIP": 1.0828729281767955,
      "IP": 181.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.839,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.262,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9777,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1126,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 1.1135,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.289,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 11.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.5,
      "whiff_percent": 33.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 29,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 8.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0759,
            "WHIP": 1.0633,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.63291,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 88.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 939.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 2.0,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0427,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36585,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67683,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36585,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.60976,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.0829,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.34807,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.106,
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        },
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 3.4504,
          "final": 3.4504,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "SO": 88,
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        "K9": 14.487804878048781,
        "HR9": 1.152439024390244,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8572341799009302,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
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      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "percent_delta": 0.6,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.522,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0189,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1069,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0881,
        "offense_index": 0.9183,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
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          "run_differential": 17.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.126
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.4277,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 785.0,
        "run_differential": -112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7044,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2327,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9371,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2531
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3791,
        "offense_edge": -0.0817,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "defense_strength": 0.094,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0941,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0201,
        "run_prevention": 0.9631,
        "strikeout": 1.0157
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 700.0,
            "k_percent": 33.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.289,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1714,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9438,
            "whiff_percent": 33.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0538,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2143,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2286,
            "whiff_edge": 1.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0624
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.97845935651245,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.19753528252,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.97845935651245,
                "release_spin_rate": 2292.19753528252,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9785,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.1975,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4459,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.262,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9777,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1126,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 1.1135,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9777,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9777,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1135,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.1126,
            "adjusted": 10
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_CLE@KChomeNoah CameronNoah CameronTrue5.25.0-22645/73/46/3
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9168278529980656,
      "WHIP": 1.2011605415860733,
      "IP": 172.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.701,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0091,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0008,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0051,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.0158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 65,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4138,
            "WHIP": 1.1379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37931,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86207,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27586,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93103,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 64.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 949.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 94.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2268,
            "WHIP": 0.8505,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24742,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58763,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26289,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85052,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07732
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.1,
            "ER": 75.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 155.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 718.0,
            "Pitches": 2792.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.1667,
            "HR": 0.6333,
            "BF": 23.9333,
            "Pitches": 93.0667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9168,
            "WHIP": 1.2012,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4352,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88781,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31335,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89942,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11025
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.161,
        "predicted_H": 4.703,
        "predicted_BB": 1.719,
        "predicted_SO": 5.293,
        "predicted_HR": 0.762,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3156,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0946
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.161,
          "final": 2.0949,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.703,
          "final": 4.8249,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.719,
          "final": 2.2447,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.293,
          "final": 5.5831,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.762,
          "final": 0.8597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3156,
          "final": 3.3156,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0946,
          "final": 1.0946,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 64.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 38,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.22680412371134,
        "WHIP": 0.8505154639175257,
        "K9": 7.654639175257731,
        "HR9": 0.6958762886597938,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7325186279773697,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.4277,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 785.0,
        "run_differential": -112.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.7044,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2327,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9371,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 0.9059,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2531
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.522,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0189,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1069,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0881,
        "offense_index": 0.9183,
        "defense_index": 1.094,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.126
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3791,
        "offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0817,
        "defense_strength": -0.0941,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.094,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9853,
        "run_prevention": 1.0153,
        "strikeout": 0.9952
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702070",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702070",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 687.0,
            "k_percent": 21.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.871,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9779,
            "whiff_percent": 26.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0039,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1193,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1857,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1714
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702070",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.80222764841449,
              "release_spin_rate": 2194.1160947580797,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.80222764841449,
                "release_spin_rate": 2194.1160947580797,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.8022,
              "release_spin_rate": 2194.1161,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1714,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2246,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0091,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0008,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0051,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.0158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702070",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0008,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0008,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0051,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_CLE@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_COL@CHWawayTomoyuki SuganoTomoyuki SuganoTrue5.06.2564-26/62/03/5
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.363431151241535,
      "WHIP": 1.3340857787810385,
      "IP": 147.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.274,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.9839,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0836,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9229,
      "walk_factor": 0.932,
      "homer_factor": 1.1749,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.4,
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      "woba": 0.358,
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      "barrel_percent": 11.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 110,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4231,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11538,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30769,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19231
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 61.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
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            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 3.9,
            "H": 6.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.6194,
            "WHIP": 1.4129,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73548,
            "H_per_IP": 1.18065,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23226,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67742,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.2,
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            "R": 91.0,
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            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 31.0,
            "BF": 631.0,
            "Pitches": 2432.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 3.25,
            "H": 5.75,
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            "SO": 3.25,
            "HR": 1.1071,
            "BF": 22.5357,
            "Pitches": 86.8571
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3341,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59594,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09029,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24379,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61625,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20993
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.52,
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        "predicted_HR": 1.039,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.3507,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 3.763,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.3507,
          "final": 6.3507,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3957,
          "final": 1.3957,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "H": 61,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 35,
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        "WHIP": 1.4129032258064518,
        "K9": 6.096774193548387,
        "HR9": 1.9161290322580646,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2407402774619058,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 7.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 7,
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          "predicted_HR": 2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "player_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 7.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 7.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 102,
        "win_pct": 0.3585,
        "runs_scored": 740.0,
        "runs_allowed": 928.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1824,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6541,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8365,
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        "recent": {
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          "run_differential": -19.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5157,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.327,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7799,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4528,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0406,
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        "defense_strength": -0.2337,
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "hard_hit_percent": 43.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9925,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.1097,
            "whiff_percent": 19.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.3423,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6136,
            "regression_edge": -0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.0,
            "barrel_edge": -1.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8429,
            "bb_edge": 0.85,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0871
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.30861213850356,
              "release_spin_rate": 2300.4901092326763,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.30861213850356,
                "release_spin_rate": 2300.4901092326763,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3086,
              "release_spin_rate": 2300.4901,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0871,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.622,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.9839,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0836,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9229,
          "walk_factor": 0.932,
          "homer_factor": 1.1749,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608372",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0836,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0836,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1749,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9229,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 7,
      "predicted_ER": 7,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_COL@CHWhomeSean BurkeSean BurkeTrue5.05.111104/40/16/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2035928143712575,
      "IP": 167.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.269,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9927,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.994,
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      "k_percent": 25.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 25.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 19,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.8,
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            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47619,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95238,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.90476,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95238,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04762
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 881.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 88.1
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4178,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43151,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88356,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53425,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9863,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10274
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 61.0,
            "SO": 178.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 695.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0323,
            "R": 2.129,
            "H": 4.5161,
            "BB": 1.9677,
            "SO": 5.7419,
            "HR": 0.5806,
            "BF": 22.4194,
            "Pitches": 89.9677
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3952,
            "WHIP": 1.2036,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37725,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83832,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36527,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06587,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10778
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.163,
        "predicted_H": 4.398,
        "predicted_BB": 3.009,
        "predicted_SO": 4.703,
        "predicted_HR": 0.426,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0569,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5434
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "model_weight": 0.4087,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.163,
          "final": 1.6877,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.398,
          "final": 4.2353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 3.009,
          "final": 1.7793,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.703,
          "final": 4.8244,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.426,
          "final": 0.2519,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0569,
          "final": 4.0569,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5434,
          "final": 1.5434,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.8835616438356166,
        "WHIP": 1.4178082191780823,
        "K9": 8.876712328767123,
        "HR9": 0.9246575342465754,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9330861678728648,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 31.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "player_name": "Sean Burke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 1.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5157,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": 52.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.327,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7799,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4528,
        "offense_index": 1.0688,
        "defense_index": 1.0044,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0886
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 102,
        "win_pct": 0.3585,
        "runs_scored": 740.0,
        "runs_allowed": 928.0,
        "run_differential": -188.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1824,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6541,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8365,
        "offense_index": 1.0406,
        "defense_index": 0.7663,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3707
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4593,
        "offense_edge": 0.0688,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0406,
        "defense_strength": 0.0044,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2337,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0169,
        "run_prevention": 0.9831,
        "strikeout": 1.0105
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 644.0,
            "k_percent": 25.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5292,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0009,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0319,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2664,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0571,
            "bb_edge": 0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0129
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.63367275202977,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651388536104,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6337,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.4651,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0129,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.092,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0861,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9927,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.994,
          "homer_factor": 1.0154,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "680732",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_COL@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_HOU@OAKawayHunter BrownHunter BrownTrue5.15.1031-25/20/46/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.264705882352941,
      "WHIP": 1.2745098039215685,
      "IP": 102.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.368,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5186,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9559,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0474,
      "walk_factor": 1.056,
      "homer_factor": 0.9478,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.1,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.279,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 69,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 8.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6024,
            "WHIP": 1.1205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83133,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28916,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.59036,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03614
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 95.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1091,
            "WHIP": 1.2727,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41818,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10909
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 102.0,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 427.0,
            "Pitches": 1781.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9474,
            "R": 2.1053,
            "H": 4.1579,
            "BB": 2.6842,
            "SO": 6.3158,
            "HR": 0.5789,
            "BF": 22.4737,
            "Pitches": 93.7368
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2647,
            "WHIP": 1.2745,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36275,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77451,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10784
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.979,
        "predicted_H": 4.692,
        "predicted_BB": 2.054,
        "predicted_SO": 7.091,
        "predicted_HR": 0.497,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.2669,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2374
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.979,
          "final": 2.4262,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.692,
          "final": 4.8269,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.054,
          "final": 1.1543,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 7.091,
          "final": 6.6131,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.497,
          "final": 0.7173,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.2669,
          "final": 3.2669,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2374,
          "final": 1.2374,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 70,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.109090909090909,
        "WHIP": 1.2727272727272727,
        "K9": 11.454545454545455,
        "HR9": 0.9818181818181818,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8423311865528149,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 758.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3208,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4465,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7673,
        "offense_index": 0.9932,
        "defense_index": 0.9391,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.077
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.3962,
        "runs_scored": 691.0,
        "runs_allowed": 910.0,
        "run_differential": -219.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3774,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3459,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7233,
        "offense_index": 0.9708,
        "defense_index": 0.7822,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3275
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2505,
        "offense_edge": -0.0068,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0292,
        "defense_strength": -0.0609,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2178,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0094,
        "run_prevention": 0.9889,
        "strikeout": 1.0099
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 386.0,
            "k_percent": 28.1,
            "bb_percent": 11.9,
            "woba": 0.294,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.0205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2519,
            "whiff_percent": 27.2,
            "swing_percent": 42.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.6617,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3621,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1385
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
                "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3371,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.361,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1385,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9894,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5186,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9559,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0474,
          "walk_factor": 1.056,
          "homer_factor": 0.9478,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9559,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9559,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.056,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9478,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0474,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_HOU@OAKhomeJacob LopezJacob LopezTrue4.16.0531-25/20/27/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.5340909090909092,
      "IP": 117.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.725,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2022,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9828,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 0.9428,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.354,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 352,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.4857,
            "WHIP": 1.7571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "H_per_IP": 1.37143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.3
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 227.0,
            "Pitches": 921.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.7,
            "Pitches": 92.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1266,
            "WHIP": 1.3671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56962,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06329,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0443,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20886
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 117.1,
            "ER": 74.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 108.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 529.0,
            "Pitches": 2149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8462,
            "R": 2.9615,
            "H": 4.7692,
            "BB": 2.1538,
            "SO": 4.1538,
            "HR": 0.8462,
            "BF": 20.3462,
            "Pitches": 82.6538
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6761,
            "WHIP": 1.5341,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63068,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05682,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47727,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92045,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.46,
        "predicted_H": 5.668,
        "predicted_BB": 1.827,
        "predicted_SO": 4.392,
        "predicted_HR": 1.118,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.404,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5415
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.46,
          "final": 2.8495,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.668,
          "final": 4.5524,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.827,
          "final": 1.063,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.392,
          "final": 5.4825,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.118,
          "final": 1.0687,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.404,
          "final": 6.404,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5415,
          "final": 1.5415,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 5.126582278481013,
        "WHIP": 1.3670886075949367,
        "K9": 9.398734177215191,
        "HR9": 1.879746835443038,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0716579989808932,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.3962,
        "runs_scored": 691.0,
        "runs_allowed": 910.0,
        "run_differential": -219.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3774,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3459,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7233,
        "offense_index": 0.9708,
        "defense_index": 0.7822,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3275
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 758.0,
        "run_differential": -51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3208,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4465,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7673,
        "offense_index": 0.9932,
        "defense_index": 0.9391,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.077
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2505,
        "offense_edge": -0.0292,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0068,
        "defense_strength": -0.2178,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0609,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9837,
        "run_prevention": 1.0332,
        "strikeout": 0.993
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682052",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682052",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 505.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.354,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 71.9236,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.6061,
            "whiff_percent": 24.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2063,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2179,
            "regression_edge": 1.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1143,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682052",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.00032129257265,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.419878494836,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.00032129257265,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.419878494836,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.0003,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.4199,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2022,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9828,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 0.9428,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.058,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682052",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9828,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9828,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9428,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 70,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_HOU@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_LAA@SEAawayReid DetmersReid DetmersTrue6.06.0030-34/24/26/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.46927374301676,
      "WHIP": 1.0502793296089385,
      "IP": 179.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.774,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4617,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9608,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0589,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9797,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.273,
      "xwoba": 0.279,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 28.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 20,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.06667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 0.9,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.2881,
            "WHIP": 0.9492,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25424,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79661,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15254,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15254,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10169
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 179.0,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 204.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 718.0,
            "Pitches": 2872.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2258,
            "R": 2.3226,
            "H": 4.5806,
            "BB": 1.4839,
            "SO": 6.5806,
            "HR": 0.6129,
            "BF": 23.1613,
            "Pitches": 92.6452
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4693,
            "WHIP": 1.0503,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38547,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7933,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25698,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13966,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10615
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.964,
        "predicted_H": 5.2,
        "predicted_BB": 1.002,
        "predicted_SO": 6.46,
        "predicted_HR": 0.567,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9744,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0436
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.964,
          "final": 2.3874,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 4.7096,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.002,
          "final": 2.2272,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.46,
          "final": 5.0459,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.567,
          "final": 0.3353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9744,
          "final": 2.9744,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0436,
          "final": 1.0436,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.0,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 68,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.288135593220339,
        "WHIP": 0.9491525423728814,
        "K9": 10.372881355932204,
        "HR9": 0.9152542372881356,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.741884345258516,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
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            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
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            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3836,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": -91.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5723,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0314,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6038,
        "offense_index": 0.9005,
        "defense_index": 0.9724,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1693
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0503,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4528,
        "offense_index": 0.9047,
        "defense_index": 1.0054,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1139
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0554,
        "offense_edge": -0.0995,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0953,
        "defense_strength": -0.0276,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0054,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0008,
        "run_prevention": 0.9903,
        "strikeout": 1.006
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 694.0,
            "k_percent": 28.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.273,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.7161,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2133,
            "whiff_percent": 28.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5256,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7414,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.103
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.02393441073,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.8342638538984,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.02393441073,
                "release_spin_rate": 2234.8342638538984,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0239,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.8343,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.103,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7359,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4617,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9608,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0589,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9797,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "672282",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9608,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9608,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9797,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0589,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_LAA@SEAhomeBryce MillerBryce MillerTrue5.16.024514/64/22/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.994082840236686,
      "WHIP": 1.1538461538461537,
      "IP": 112.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.383,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2686,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9772,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0154,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 0.9632,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
      "whiff_percent": 25.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 125,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 433.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.087,
            "WHIP": 1.6087,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56522,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82609,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08696,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21739
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 883.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 88.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2027,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68919,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52703,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83108,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22297
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 112.2,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 112.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 459.0,
            "Pitches": 1793.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.381,
            "R": 2.619,
            "H": 4.4762,
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            "SO": 5.3333,
            "HR": 0.9524,
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            "Pitches": 85.381
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9941,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44379,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83432,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31953,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99408,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17751
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.851,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.787,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4571
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.851,
          "final": 3.3465,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.494,
          "final": 4.281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.787,
          "final": 3.3101,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.85,
          "final": 3.6209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.996,
          "final": 0.9977,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1351,
          "final": 5.1351,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4571,
          "final": 1.4571,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 6.202702702702703,
        "WHIP": 1.5,
        "K9": 7.479729729729729,
        "HR9": 2.0067567567567566,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.19604433151596,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 644.0,
        "runs_allowed": 708.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0503,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4528,
        "offense_index": 0.9047,
        "defense_index": 1.0054,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1139
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3836,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": -91.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5723,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0314,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6038,
        "offense_index": 0.9005,
        "defense_index": 0.9724,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1693
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0554,
        "offense_edge": -0.0953,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0995,
        "defense_strength": 0.0054,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0276,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0064,
        "run_prevention": 0.9808,
        "strikeout": 1.0096
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 434.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8613,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9426,
            "whiff_percent": 25.3,
            "swing_percent": 54.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3092,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2343,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.8429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0429,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0394
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.56804412225787,
              "release_spin_rate": 2160.500947400786,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.56804412225787,
                "release_spin_rate": 2160.500947400786,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.568,
              "release_spin_rate": 2160.5009,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0394,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2817,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2686,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9772,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0154,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.9632,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682243",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9772,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9772,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9632,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_LAA@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_LAD@SFawayTarik SkubalTarik SkubalTrue6.17.0210-12/31/07/10
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8483516483516484,
      "WHIP": 0.989010989010989,
      "IP": 151.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6883,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9415,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0777,
      "walk_factor": 0.908,
      "homer_factor": 0.9467,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.5,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.27,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 31.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93548,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19355,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96774,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_LAD@SFhomeYunior MarteYunior MarteTrue4.25.0132-13/63/16/4
Last 10 before this game (4 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
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      "WHIP": 1.396551724137931,
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2317,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0197,
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      "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
      "whiff_percent": 18.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 707,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805074",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93103,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.56897,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.5,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.46552,
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          }
        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93103,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.56897,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.402,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.945,
        "predicted_SO": 3.608,
        "predicted_HR": 0.708,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6329,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3774
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.402,
          "final": 2.7517,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.483,
          "final": 3.6158,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.945,
          "final": 2.5619,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.608,
          "final": 5.0067,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.708,
          "final": 1.4635,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6329,
          "final": 4.6329,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3774,
          "final": 1.3774,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.1,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 9,
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        "HR": 3,
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        "K9": 5.120689655172413,
        "HR9": 1.3965517241379308,
        "games_pitched": 4,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0124470698741688,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805074",
      "player_name": "Yunior Marte",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 94,
        "win_pct": 0.4088,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 749.0,
        "run_differential": -84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5283,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1824,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7107,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2124
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 159,
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        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.6101,
        "runs_scored": 790.0,
        "runs_allowed": 596.0,
        "run_differential": 194.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2201,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9686,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7484,
        "offense_index": 1.1098,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.5,
          "run_differential": 24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3135
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5259,
        "offense_edge": -0.0658,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1098,
        "defense_strength": -0.0496,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9731,
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        "strikeout": 0.9754
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805074",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.342,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.7741,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6032,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9143,
            "bb_edge": -0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0613
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.76853497379813,
              "release_spin_rate": 1889.510442161121,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 71,
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                "release_speed": 88.76853497379813,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7685,
              "release_spin_rate": 1889.5104,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0613,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.4381,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2317,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0197,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9612,
          "walk_factor": 1.0153,
          "homer_factor": 1.0496,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "805074",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0069,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9825,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_LAD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_NYM@WASawayJefry YanJefry YanTrue4.01.2-72202/30/22/1
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
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      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 554,
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
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          "per_game": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.33929,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-24T00:00:00"
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        "stats": {
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      },
      {
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "642376",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 70.0,
            "k_percent": 29.6,
            "bb_percent": 14.8,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1949,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2655,
            "whiff_percent": 36.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2367,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7836,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": 1.6571,
            "bb_edge": -1.425,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.272
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642376",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 26,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 26,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.72026896051943,
              "release_spin_rate": 2440.8606862686183,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 26,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.72026896051943,
                "release_spin_rate": 2440.8606862686183,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.7203,
              "release_spin_rate": 2440.8607,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.272,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.9426,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1778,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9849,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0494,
          "walk_factor": 1.0513,
          "homer_factor": 0.9823,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "642376",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9932,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9932,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0231,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0222,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 60,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_NYM@WAShomeAndrew AlvarezAndrew AlvarezTrue5.24.2-32534/70/36/7
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.1666666666666665,
      "WHIP": 1.2592592592592593,
      "IP": 108.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.083,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0526,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9955,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0171,
      "walk_factor": 1.032,
      "homer_factor": 0.9792,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 5.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 48,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 108.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.167,
      "season_WHIP": 1.259,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9286,
            "WHIP": 1.0357,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 827.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 82.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1402,
            "WHIP": 1.0244,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2378,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60366,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42073,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95122,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05488
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 108.0,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 88.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 107.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 450.0,
            "Pitches": 1756.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.5833,
            "R": 1.5833,
            "H": 3.6667,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.4583,
            "HR": 0.2083,
            "BF": 18.75,
            "Pitches": 73.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1667,
            "WHIP": 1.2593,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35185,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81481,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44444,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99074,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0463
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.596,
        "predicted_H": 3.813,
        "predicted_BB": 2.271,
        "predicted_SO": 5.62,
        "predicted_HR": 0.338,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.658,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1257
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.596,
          "final": 1.7668,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.813,
          "final": 3.8921,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.271,
          "final": 1.3107,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.62,
          "final": 5.7807,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.338,
          "final": 0.1951,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.658,
          "final": 2.658,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1257,
          "final": 1.1257,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.1402439024390243,
        "WHIP": 1.024390243902439,
        "K9": 8.560975609756097,
        "HR9": 0.4939024390243902,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.727127472583857,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
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            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4717,
        "runs_scored": 807.0,
        "runs_allowed": 798.0,
        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0566,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0755,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0189,
        "offense_index": 1.1342,
        "defense_index": 0.8916,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0529
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 86,
        "win_pct": 0.4591,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 717.0,
        "run_differential": -35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2201,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2893,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5094,
        "offense_index": 0.9585,
        "defense_index": 0.9924,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0968
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1497,
        "offense_edge": 0.1342,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0415,
        "defense_strength": -0.1084,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0076,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0044,
        "run_prevention": 0.9967,
        "strikeout": 1.0078
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674841",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674841",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 411.0,
            "k_percent": 23.8,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9064,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3329,
            "whiff_percent": 26.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1829,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0957,
            "regression_edge": -0.6286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1714,
            "bb_edge": -0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1483
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674841",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.21515384526589,
              "release_spin_rate": 2496.6767478148677,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.21515384526589,
                "release_spin_rate": 2496.6767478148677,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2152,
              "release_spin_rate": 2496.6767,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1483,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0594,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0526,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9955,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0171,
          "walk_factor": 1.032,
          "homer_factor": 0.9792,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.022,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "674841",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9792,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0171,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_NYM@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_PIT@DETawayBubba ChandlerBubba ChandlerTrue5.02.2-73634/41/47/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.341409691629956,
      "WHIP": 1.3744493392070485,
      "IP": 151.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.034,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0838,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0071,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9777,
      "walk_factor": 1.05,
      "homer_factor": 0.9922,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 11.6,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 120,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.3846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0855,
            "WHIP": 1.3421,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45395,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09868
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.1,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 76.0,
            "SO": 138.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 657.0,
            "Pitches": 2609.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4333,
            "R": 2.7667,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.5333,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 86.9667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3414,
            "WHIP": 1.3744,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48238,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87225,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5022,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91189,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09912
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.411,
        "predicted_H": 4.924,
        "predicted_BB": 2.087,
        "predicted_SO": 4.772,
        "predicted_HR": 0.652,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2314,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3669
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.411,
          "final": 2.6527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.924,
          "final": 4.5448,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.087,
          "final": 1.6409,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.772,
          "final": 5.6863,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.652,
          "final": 0.7948,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2314,
          "final": 4.2314,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3669,
          "final": 1.3669,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.0855263157894735,
        "WHIP": 1.3421052631578947,
        "K9": 8.526315789473685,
        "HR9": 0.8881578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9539146195671689,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5094,
        "runs_scored": 753.0,
        "runs_allowed": 725.0,
        "run_differential": 28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1761,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5597,
        "offense_index": 1.0583,
        "defense_index": 0.9814,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0996
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 709.0,
        "runs_allowed": 638.0,
        "run_differential": 71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4465,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4591,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0126,
        "offense_index": 0.9964,
        "defense_index": 1.1153,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0095
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1091,
        "offense_edge": 0.0583,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0036,
        "defense_strength": -0.0186,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1153,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0039,
        "run_prevention": 0.9958,
        "strikeout": 1.0036
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696149",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696149",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 634.0,
            "k_percent": 21.0,
            "bb_percent": 11.6,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6137,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9769,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.019,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3343,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2792
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696149",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.85024086236014,
              "release_spin_rate": 2332.2239071943923,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.85024086236014,
                "release_spin_rate": 2332.2239071943923,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.8502,
              "release_spin_rate": 2332.2239,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2792,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.9946,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0838,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0071,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9777,
          "walk_factor": 1.05,
          "homer_factor": 0.9922,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "696149",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0071,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.05,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9922,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9777,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_PIT@DEThomeJackson JobeJackson JobeTrue5.15.102202/33/25/8
Last 10 before this game (8 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9836065573770494,
      "WHIP": 1.2049180327868854,
      "IP": 40.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.083,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0325,
      "sample_weight": 0.588,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9972,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.005,
      "walk_factor": 0.9882,
      "homer_factor": 1.0204,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 269,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7125,
            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 172.0,
            "Pitches": 685.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.375,
            "H": 4.375,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 5.375,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 85.625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9836,
            "WHIP": 1.2049,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44262,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34426,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05738,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17213
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 40.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 172.0,
            "Pitches": 685.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.25,
            "R": 2.375,
            "H": 4.375,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 5.375,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 85.625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9836,
            "WHIP": 1.2049,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44262,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86066,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34426,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05738,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17213
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.407,
        "predicted_H": 4.623,
        "predicted_BB": 1.867,
        "predicted_SO": 5.641,
        "predicted_HR": 0.894,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1127,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2318
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.407,
          "final": 2.1984,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.623,
          "final": 3.2787,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.867,
          "final": 2.4477,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.641,
          "final": 5.3125,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.894,
          "final": 0.9483,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1127,
          "final": 4.1127,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2318,
          "final": 1.2318,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 40.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.9836065573770494,
        "WHIP": 1.2049180327868854,
        "K9": 9.51639344262295,
        "HR9": 1.5491803278688525,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.939018965986496,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4654,
        "runs_scored": 709.0,
        "runs_allowed": 638.0,
        "run_differential": 71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4465,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4591,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0126,
        "offense_index": 0.9964,
        "defense_index": 1.1153,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0095
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.5094,
        "runs_scored": 753.0,
        "runs_allowed": 725.0,
        "run_differential": 28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1761,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7358,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5597,
        "offense_index": 1.0583,
        "defense_index": 0.9814,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0996
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1091,
        "offense_edge": -0.0036,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0583,
        "defense_strength": 0.1153,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0186,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9968,
        "run_prevention": 1.0033,
        "strikeout": 0.9921
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695549",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695549",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 147.0,
            "k_percent": 25.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.324,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6832,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5876,
            "whiff_percent": 23.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0624,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1679,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1548
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695549",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.62807063256204,
              "release_spin_rate": 2465.384813235495,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.62807063256204,
                "release_spin_rate": 2465.384813235495,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6281,
              "release_spin_rate": 2465.3848,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1548,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1058,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0325,
          "sample_weight": 0.588,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9972,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.005,
          "walk_factor": 0.9882,
          "homer_factor": 1.0204,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "695549",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9984,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9931,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0029,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_PIT@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_STL@MILawayMichael McGreevyMichael McGreevyTrue5.14.2-22426/90/27/2
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.841463414634146,
      "WHIP": 1.25,
      "IP": 164.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5664,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0481,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9423,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 1.0885,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.316,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 20.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 94,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.4625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 905.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 90.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6174,
            "WHIP": 1.5302,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62416,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14765,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38255,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78523,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12081
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 164.0,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 159.0,
            "BB": 46.0,
            "SO": 113.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 677.0,
            "Pitches": 2682.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.5333,
            "SO": 3.7667,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.5667,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8415,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42683,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96951,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28049,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68902,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12805
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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        "predicted_H": 5.603,
        "predicted_BB": 1.892,
        "predicted_SO": 3.914,
        "predicted_HR": 0.643,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0859,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.432
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.957,
          "final": 2.5643,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.603,
          "final": 5.7659,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.892,
          "final": 1.1156,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.914,
          "final": 5.1804,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.643,
          "final": 0.7895,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0859,
          "final": 5.0859,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.432,
          "final": 1.432,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.61744966442953,
        "WHIP": 1.530201342281879,
        "K9": 7.067114093959731,
        "HR9": 1.087248322147651,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1309583982672748,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4843,
        "runs_scored": 710.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1384,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4654,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6038,
        "offense_index": 0.9979,
        "defense_index": 0.972,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0654
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6289,
        "runs_scored": 815.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 207.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3019,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1258,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8239,
        "offense_index": 1.1454,
        "defense_index": 1.1703,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3396
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0021,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1454,
        "defense_strength": -0.028,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9771,
        "run_prevention": 1.0463,
        "strikeout": 0.9762
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700241",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700241",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 631.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.35,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0662,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6102,
            "whiff_percent": 20.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5996,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4657,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6857,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1553
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700241",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.09044867462653,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.553287077531,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.09044867462653,
                "release_spin_rate": 2200.553287077531,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2200.5533,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1553,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1093,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5664,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0481,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9423,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 1.0885,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "700241",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0481,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0481,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0885,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9423,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_STL@MILhomeRobert GasserRobert GasserTrue5.06.0331-23/10/14/9
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.238709677419355,
      "IP": 103.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.158,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.989,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 187,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 437.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1013,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18987,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83544,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03797
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 86.3
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88462,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05769
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 94.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 443.0,
            "Pitches": 1730.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.7,
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            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.15,
            "Pitches": 86.5
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2387,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44516,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90968,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32903,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13548
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 4.404,
        "predicted_BB": 2.034,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.0516,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2225
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 3.0516,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 18,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 3,
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        "K9": 7.961538461538462,
        "HR9": 0.5192307692307693,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8429518159234443,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 100,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6289,
        "runs_scored": 815.0,
        "runs_allowed": 608.0,
        "run_differential": 207.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3019,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1258,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8239,
        "offense_index": 1.1454,
        "defense_index": 1.1703,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3396
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4843,
        "runs_scored": 710.0,
        "runs_allowed": 732.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1384,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4654,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6038,
        "offense_index": 0.9979,
        "defense_index": 0.972,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0654
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.405,
        "offense_edge": 0.1454,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0021,
        "defense_strength": 0.1703,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.028,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0214,
        "run_prevention": 0.9624,
        "strikeout": 1.0123
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "688107",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "688107",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 414.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.7052,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1368,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0705,
            "command_and_miss": -0.105,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0829
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "688107",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.38349307541424,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.059113316552,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.38349307541424,
                "release_spin_rate": 2279.059113316552,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3835,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.0591,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0829,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5921,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0877,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0075,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.989,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "688107",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0075,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.989,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_STL@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_TB@PHIawayFreddy PeraltaFreddy PeraltaTrue5.25.1-150-55/42/36/4
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.564154786150713,
      "WHIP": 1.3258655804480652,
      "IP": 163.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.28,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1418,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9879,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.004,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 0.9669,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 287,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 430.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9419,
            "WHIP": 0.6977,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10465,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2093,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80233,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03488
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 866.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6667,
            "WHIP": 1.0556,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25926,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77778,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 163.2,
            "ER": 83.0,
            "R": 91.0,
            "H": 157.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 152.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 708.0,
            "Pitches": 2866.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6774,
            "R": 2.9355,
            "H": 5.0645,
            "BB": 1.9355,
            "SO": 4.9032,
            "HR": 0.7419,
            "BF": 22.8387,
            "Pitches": 92.4516
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5642,
            "WHIP": 1.3259,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50713,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95927,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3666,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92872,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14053
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.773,
        "predicted_H": 4.028,
        "predicted_BB": 1.514,
        "predicted_SO": 4.602,
        "predicted_HR": 0.506,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8972,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.006
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.773,
          "final": 2.6831,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.028,
          "final": 4.4252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.514,
          "final": 1.7126,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.602,
          "final": 4.7647,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.506,
          "final": 0.7079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8972,
          "final": 2.8972,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.006,
          "final": 1.006,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.6666666666666665,
        "WHIP": 1.0555555555555556,
        "K9": 7.0,
        "HR9": 1.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8996291663507947,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6038,
        "runs_scored": 719.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4843,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.522,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0377,
        "offense_index": 1.0105,
        "defense_index": 1.1083,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1828
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5472,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1509,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.434,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.283,
        "offense_index": 0.9908,
        "defense_index": 1.0448,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0587
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1241,
        "offense_edge": 0.0105,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0092,
        "defense_strength": 0.1083,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0448,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0086,
        "run_prevention": 0.9815,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 683.0,
            "k_percent": 21.5,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.202,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4872,
            "whiff_percent": 26.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1134,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0579,
            "regression_edge": 0.6571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0308
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.31293809090894,
              "release_spin_rate": 2298.363391166723,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.31293809090894,
                "release_spin_rate": 2298.363391166723,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3129,
              "release_spin_rate": 2298.3634,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0308,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2203,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1418,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9879,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.004,
          "walk_factor": 0.988,
          "homer_factor": 0.9669,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "642547",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9879,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_TB@PHIhomeCristopher SánchezCristopher SánchezTrue6.17.0232-17/53/16/10
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.925,
      "WHIP": 1.215,
      "IP": 200.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 32,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.25,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.333,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4337,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9631,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0623,
      "walk_factor": 0.924,
      "homer_factor": 1.0018,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 31.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 32,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 129.0,
            "Pitches": 476.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.8,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5474,
            "WHIP": 1.1684,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50526,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97895,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18947,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85263,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12632
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 955.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 95.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.2391,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97826,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09783
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 32,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 200.0,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 199.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 221.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 830.0,
            "Pitches": 3058.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.0312,
            "R": 2.2188,
            "H": 6.2188,
            "BB": 1.375,
            "SO": 6.9062,
            "HR": 0.5625,
            "BF": 25.9375,
            "Pitches": 95.5625
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.925,
            "WHIP": 1.215,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.325,
            "H_per_IP": 0.995,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.715,
        "predicted_H": 6.122,
        "predicted_BB": 1.507,
        "predicted_SO": 6.017,
        "predicted_HR": 0.713,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.921,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.224
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4071,
      "form_weight": 0.5929,
      "form_reliability": 0.8649,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 32.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8649,
        "prior_weight": 0.1351
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.715,
          "final": 3.2381,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.122,
          "final": 6.4794,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.507,
          "final": 2.1148,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 6.017,
          "final": 3.9747,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.713,
          "final": 0.4228,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.921,
          "final": 3.921,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.224,
          "final": 1.224,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.3750000000000004,
        "WHIP": 1.2391304347826089,
        "K9": 9.391304347826088,
        "HR9": 0.8804347826086957,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8714060383314711,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 32.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8649,
          "prior_weight": 0.1351
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "player_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 5.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 5.0,
            "percent_delta": 5.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5472,
        "runs_scored": 705.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1509,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.434,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.283,
        "offense_index": 0.9908,
        "defense_index": 1.0448,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0587
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.6038,
        "runs_scored": 719.0,
        "runs_allowed": 642.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4843,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.522,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0377,
        "offense_index": 1.0105,
        "defense_index": 1.1083,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1828
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1241,
        "offense_edge": -0.0092,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0105,
        "defense_strength": 0.0448,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1083,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.996,
        "run_prevention": 1.0034,
        "strikeout": 0.9954
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650911",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650911",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 773.0,
            "k_percent": 26.6,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.285,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.1003,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4801,
            "whiff_percent": 31.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3323,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8007,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9,
            "bb_edge": 0.95,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0288
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650911",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.3783652742236,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207290628663,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.3783652742236,
                "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207290628663,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3784,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0288,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2059,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4337,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9631,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0623,
          "walk_factor": 0.924,
          "homer_factor": 1.0018,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650911",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9631,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9631,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.924,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0623,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 29,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_TB@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_TEX@MINawayJacob deGromJacob deGromTrue5.24.0-53855/84/38/5
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
      "WHIP": 1.096638655462185,
      "IP": 158.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.289,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4232,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.964,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0971,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 1.0293,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.279,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
      "whiff_percent": 33.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 64,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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          "per_game": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-20T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "594798",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "594798",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0971,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}
2026092520260925_TEX@MINhomeJoe RyanJoe RyanTrue5.06.0342-24/43/15/8
Last 10 before this game (10 available)
gameIDgame_dateopponent_team_idInningsPitchedHRERBBSOHR
{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.8293269230769234,
      "WHIP": 1.1754807692307694,
      "IP": 138.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.152,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.0257,
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      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 104,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "report_date": "20260925",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 32.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.6,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.65753,
            "H_per_IP": 1.31507,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20548,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82192,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20548
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.3,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4805,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24675,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23377,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01299,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25325
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 138.2,
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            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 151.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 2.7692,
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            "SO": 5.8077,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8293,
            "WHIP": 1.1755,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42548,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95913,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21635,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08894,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15144
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.901,
        "predicted_H": 5.976,
        "predicted_BB": 1.231,
        "predicted_SO": 4.759,
        "predicted_HR": 1.018,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1642,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.901,
          "final": 3.3605,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.976,
          "final": 5.1497,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.231,
          "final": 1.9707,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 1.0105,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 5.1642,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.4253,
          "final": 1.4253,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
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        "H": 64,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 13,
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        "K9": 9.116883116883118,
        "HR9": 2.2792207792207795,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-19T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.089474043695672,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "player_name": "Joe Ryan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 159,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4717,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 785.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4025,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5346,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9371,
        "offense_index": 1.0139,
        "defense_index": 0.9059,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0736
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 159,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4969,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1572,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4088,
        "offense_index": 0.9295,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0014
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.075,
        "offense_edge": 0.0139,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0705,
        "defense_strength": -0.0941,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.997,
        "run_prevention": 1.0019,
        "strikeout": 1.0034
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657746",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657746",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 542.0,
            "k_percent": 25.7,
            "bb_percent": 5.1,
            "woba": 0.312,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4652,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3183,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6151,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9005,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0113,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4779,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0731
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657746",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.55760817104789,
              "release_spin_rate": 2384.6802222056413,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.55760817104789,
                "release_spin_rate": 2384.6802222056413,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2384.6802,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0731,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.152,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9871,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0257,
          "walk_factor": 0.92,
          "homer_factor": 1.0558,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "657746",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9871,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9871,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0558,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0257,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260925_TEX@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}