Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260920 · dates 20260920 · generated 2026-09-21T09:00:17.730883+00:00

9-6

Winner picks · 60.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

14/30

Starter ER within ±1

14/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260920	15	15	0	9	6	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [2.05]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.3184.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	4	52.0%	0.0%	52.0%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	10	56.8%	80.0%	-23.2%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	1	62.9%	100.0%	-37.1%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.4648	2.7441	3.4248	80.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.5	2.8667	3.5333	60.0%	0.0352	0.1085
enhanced_prediction	15	2.8667	3.2	3.4667	60.0%	0.4019	0.0419
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.8667	3.4667	3.7333	60.0%	0.4019	0.3085
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.9	3.5333	3.8	60.0%	0.4352	0.3752
capped_target	15	2.9	3.5333	3.8	60.0%	0.4352	0.3752
simulation_result	15	2.9	3.5333	3.8	60.0%	0.4352	0.3752
published_final	15	2.9	3.5333	3.8	60.0%	0.4352	0.3752

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.9,
  "total_run_mae": 3.5333,
  "margin_mae": 3.8,
  "winner_hits": 9,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.4352,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3752
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	8.0	0.0	8.0	8.0	6	5	0	1	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	-1.0	0.0	2.0	6	1	1	4	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	6	1	0	5	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.5018	-0.8769	-0.3751	1.3787	6	3	3	0	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 8.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.5018,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.8769,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.3751,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.3787,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=9

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	10.0	-3.0	7.0	13.0	9	5	2	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	6.0	0.0	6.0	6.0	9	4	0	5	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.7307	-1.6553	0.0754	3.386	9	4	5	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 10.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 13.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 6.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.7307,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.6553,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0754,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.386,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 5,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	3	0	3	0.0
[0.525, 0.550)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.550, 0.600)	10	8	2	0.8
[0.600, 1.010)	1	1	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 3,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 10,
      "hits": 8,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.8
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260920	15	0.559	9.6	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260920",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.559,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.6,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	9	6	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 9,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260920_ATL@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreATL 5 - 3 HOU

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 69.3% → blended 62.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=642

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0585

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.139680942015216-4.62677321848146	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 3 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.692902,
    "sample_size": 642,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.627601,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0525,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0525,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2645,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.676,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0585
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023721142069577414
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023409852765292297
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021958400734406944
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021744230897263732
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021670243643665776
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08510912512863508,
      "1": 0.12769205528734606,
      "2": 0.1625643069210689,
      "3": 0.17561438406006993,
      "4": 0.16097874649890073,
      "5": 0.1252133302123433,
      "6": 0.08264301633280001,
      "7": 0.04628447285607247,
      "8": 0.021995713401653814,
      "9": 0.00886981070182725,
      "10": 0.0030350385992823116
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04404125802491941,
      "1": 0.06804702162202383,
      "2": 0.09461399990284135,
      "3": 0.11838551339608924,
      "4": 0.13330259301131517,
      "5": 0.13507516594690477,
      "6": 0.12317123582702413,
      "7": 0.10107411906410227,
      "8": 0.0746392913700516,
      "9": 0.049601170711704834,
      "10": 0.029662873750541146,
      "11": 0.015963620558740423,
      "12": 0.0077311917764480535,
      "13": 0.0033694450099544734,
      "14": 0.0013215000273393417
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 3 HOU",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 3 HOU",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0322,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.026,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
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    },
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "max": 7,
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          "blended_quality_edge": -1.0585
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.4446,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.4446,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.0585,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.2645,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.286,
          "home_runs": 1.829,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2061
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.014615158675435879,
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          "13": 0.002848300072581955
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "away_runs": 4.139680942015216,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_BOS@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreBOS 4 - 5 TB

Final confidence55.2%

Calibrationraw 56.4% → blended 56.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=414

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3433

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9257473415627615-4.979220110511978	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.103444,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.551722,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.551722,
    "away_win_probability": 0.448278
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.103444,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.5517216075,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5636,
    "sample_size": 414,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5656,
    "published_confidence": 0.551722,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0737,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.844,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3433
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01857368209161923
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017518892169713626
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017453581841457698
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.039720354109287107,
      "1": 0.06155971398502793,
      "2": 0.08638634613243568,
      "3": 0.10976367692404249,
      "4": 0.12628076918365605,
      "5": 0.13154696122974197,
      "6": 0.12407647647190023,
      "7": 0.10596516372859378,
      "8": 0.0819411028981529,
      "9": 0.05737273145674614,
      "10": 0.036372594278116455,
      "11": 0.0208789214201943,
      "12": 0.010851927191338642,
      "13": 0.005107057090873531,
      "14": 0.0021762038998926654
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "1": 0.0763482284376001,
      "2": 0.1049404677526079,
      "3": 0.12880984870135967,
      "4": 0.1411943074776237,
      "5": 0.13821250816166739,
      "6": 0.12082020044934226,
      "7": 0.09431782965508084,
      "8": 0.06575216972519136,
      "9": 0.040934399274975525,
      "10": 0.022757722491900986,
      "11": 0.011298771254097095,
      "12": 0.005009514966548113
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0081,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.634,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5517,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6172,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5517,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3433,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.844,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0081,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:36:37.893753+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-20T17:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.571587,
      "confidence": 0.571587,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
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      },
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_CHC@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 8 - 4 CIN

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 73.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=226

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6933

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.680815864810019-3.9541177696226906	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 8-4",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 8 - 4 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 226,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5487,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.73435,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -12.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0645,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.004,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.6933
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015148391277368532
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.014886955902746454
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05121481124702857,
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      "3": 0.13162391288727598,
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      "11": 0.010150925272090631,
      "12": 0.004383169902277092
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01813200294010374,
      "1": 0.02855415475807444,
      "2": 0.04203760450176004,
      "3": 0.0578564435158649,
      "4": 0.07444073117326248,
      "5": 0.08953949683153627,
      "6": 0.10068477215850284,
      "7": 0.10584200457923339,
      "8": 0.10401535225614061,
      "9": 0.09556127919557209,
      "10": 0.08207513162352606,
      "11": 0.06590014101377172,
      "12": 0.04946593502638542,
      "13": 0.03471132759268343,
      "14": 0.02277096043420427,
      "15": 0.01396486031077907,
      "16": 0.008006394139806512,
      "17": 0.004291236582663998,
      "18": 0.0021501713661286294
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 8 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 8 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0589,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.934,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
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      "review_required": false,
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      "final_margin": 4,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 8,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 2
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    },
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            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -12.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 155,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 83,
          "win_pct": 0.4645161290322581,
          "runs_scored": 641,
          "runs_allowed": 796,
          "run_differential": -155,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 155,
          "wins": 86,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.5548387096774193,
          "runs_scored": 826,
          "runs_allowed": 682,
          "run_differential": 144,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9290322580645162,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.929,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0903,
        "quality_edge": -1.6933,
        "season_quality_edge": -2.0645,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.0645,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.004,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.6933
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -2.7093,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -2.7093,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": -1.6933,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.0645,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 9.252,
          "home_runs": 0.856,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.015793262473127293
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 8,
            "probability": 0.015506847541741023
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.015275778773308596
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 8,
            "probability": 0.014998748543698117
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.014985286889473086
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04955568223900544,
          "1": 0.07788518284095576,
          "2": 0.10841983918233733,
          "3": 0.13367654259485068,
          "4": 0.14598027614525802,
          "5": 0.1411970710583584,
          "6": 0.12096221359563275,
          "7": 0.0917838549605422,
          "8": 0.061684406928723866,
          "9": 0.03671783141100625,
          "10": 0.019358476878080656,
          "11": 0.009039780295773448,
          "12": 0.003738841869475057
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.016930604291273098,
          "1": 0.02729040712254659,
          "2": 0.04098193333518051,
          "3": 0.057334990267861666,
          "4": 0.07472947245342847,
          "5": 0.09074212854891292,
          "6": 0.10265281916963864,
          "7": 0.10818764623662014,
          "8": 0.1062256350735417,
          "9": 0.09716858374805265,
          "10": 0.08280704408262775,
          "11": 0.06574361249642857,
          "12": 0.04862781085412206,
          "13": 0.033508944337973814,
          "14": 0.021512042443048985,
          "15": 0.012866114698985668,
          "16": 0.007168991476999203,
          "17": 0.003721461942738738,
          "18": 0.0017997574200183998
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.680815864810019,
      "home_runs": 3.9541177696226906,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_DET@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreDET 5 - 4 CHW

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 73.1% → blended 65.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=352

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.396

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.848883020114156-3.9013037810341373	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.730973,
    "sample_size": 352,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.571,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.650987,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.8,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.76,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.396
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01941289306284455
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01903098360719867
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018964006538115356
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018590928018062187
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01805643536607702
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06331029331111199,
      "1": 0.09649666872076237,
      "2": 0.1288025238187686,
      "3": 0.15056030360673597,
      "4": 0.15412413339725853,
      "5": 0.13816717257985175,
      "6": 0.1084708766169585,
      "7": 0.07457538196015706,
      "8": 0.04490057263082055,
      "9": 0.023674582551218973,
      "10": 0.010931678156480818,
      "11": 0.004420438990205039,
      "12": 0.0015653736596698367
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03483819740394585,
      "1": 0.05418299492362951,
      "2": 0.07683924094335436,
      "3": 0.09936097713812066,
      "4": 0.11715514610249998,
      "5": 0.12595621876301077,
      "6": 0.12347828459898536,
      "7": 0.11037590788533361,
      "8": 0.08996440636641938,
      "9": 0.06686207905852878,
      "10": 0.04531080346378702,
      "11": 0.027998604006053345,
      "12": 0.015775521379530495,
      "13": 0.008104827823703734,
      "14": 0.0037967901430970108
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0358,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.55,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.396,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5681,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.396,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.76,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0358,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.2,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140"
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    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.95,
        "new_value": 2.05,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:39:48.887411+00:00",
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      "proof_complete": true
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_KC@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreKC 2 - 3 PIT

Final confidence57.3%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 57.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=122

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7614

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.3932924943528278-5.599400704355159	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": 0.145598,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.572799,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.572799,
    "away_win_probability": 0.427201
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.145598,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 3-2 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 2 - 3 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.5727991,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 122,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5574,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5719,
    "published_confidence": 0.572799,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.03,
    "away_run_delta": -0.03,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9387,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.432,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.7614
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.037977763705028346
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03546636715986223
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.034682776056224766
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.03438640361965756
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.032994254734985136
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08746158378902273,
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7614,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 2,
            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.626354,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.577691,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.916429,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.602022,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.602022
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 30,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 2,
        "sample_weight": 0.03,
        "home_net_margin": 4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.03,
        "away_run_delta": -0.03,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "PIT",
          "games": 155,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.5032258064516129,
          "runs_scored": 744,
          "runs_allowed": 716,
          "run_differential": 28,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.18064516129032257,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "KC",
          "games": 155,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 88,
          "win_pct": 0.432258064516129,
          "runs_scored": 653,
          "runs_allowed": 754,
          "run_differential": -101,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.6516129032258065,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.8323,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.071,
        "quality_edge": 0.7614,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.9387,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.9387,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.432,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.7614
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3198,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3198,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.7614,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.9387,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 0.844,
          "home_runs": 4.172,
          "home_win_probability": 0.7829
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.03942410373505241
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 2,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.13144318090418036,
          "2": 0.1684868278342246,
          "3": 0.1810515984114869,
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          "10": 0.002147314644640426
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "5": 0.07882547023912316,
          "6": 0.034534038325285024,
          "7": 0.01186225831625713,
          "8": 0.003194674400637389
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.3932924943528278,
      "home_runs": 5.599400704355159,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_MIA@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreMIA 4 - 6 SD

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 84.5% → blended 70.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=236

H2H base featurehome net 16.0 · absolute 16.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5667

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.051414886387104-4.182190741908563	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 SD",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.845261,
    "sample_size": 236,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.702281,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 16.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 16.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0923,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0923,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.329,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5667
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01739812310130491
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01726254989179147
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.016983449866694447
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.016851107958683366
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01624743134756884
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02387123837046976,
      "1": 0.03742556328830599,
      "2": 0.054368405984077176,
      "3": 0.07318291654755867,
      "4": 0.0912762281206899,
      "5": 0.10548495340235148,
      "6": 0.1129557137598945,
      "7": 0.11207551716867933,
      "8": 0.10303817490679215,
      "9": 0.08777491589704767,
      "10": 0.06928313726007171,
      "11": 0.050672172755396254,
      "12": 0.03433968972694947,
      "13": 0.02156294452183737,
      "14": 0.012545980921881566,
      "15": 0.006763726509097534,
      "16": 0.00337872085889944
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06316476082378529,
      "1": 0.09628486809695506,
      "2": 0.12855993896901025,
      "3": 0.15035494267067798,
      "4": 0.15402605607262518,
      "5": 0.13820861503852377,
      "6": 0.10862767114219193,
      "7": 0.07478426965378916,
      "8": 0.04509667045227875,
      "9": 0.023820075537327963,
      "10": 0.011020624983992405,
      "11": 0.004466154554733586,
      "12": 0.0015853520041085587
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0206,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.358,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5667,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6673,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5667,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.008,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0206,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    },
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260920_MIL@BAL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 7 - 1 BAL

Final confidence62.9%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 92.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 100.0% · weight 2.5% · n=5

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.3577

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.078572742877618-2.5382994361377005	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-1	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-1	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-1	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "confidence": -0.25844,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.62922,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.37078,
    "away_win_probability": 0.62922
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.25844,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 7-1",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 1
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 1,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 7 - 1 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.62922,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 5,
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    "empirical_weight": 0.025,
    "blended_confidence": 0.922,
    "published_confidence": 0.62922,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.015,
    "away_run_delta": 0.015,
    "evidence": [
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        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.92,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 1.0,
        "empirical_weight": 0.025,
        "blended_confidence": 0.922
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.922,
        "final_confidence": 0.6303,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6303,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.429268,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 4.25,
        "calibration_sample_size": 5,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 1.0,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.561,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": true,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.3577,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "verified calibration sample is sparse; probability was shrunk toward even rather than clamped",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 2
          },
          "margin": -4,
          "probability_before": 0.36965,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.216532,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.429268,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.36965,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.63035
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 2,
        "sample_weight": 0.03,
        "home_net_margin": -2.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.015,
        "away_run_delta": 0.015,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "BAL",
          "games": 155,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4838709677419355,
          "runs_scored": 693,
          "runs_allowed": 721,
          "run_differential": -28,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.18064516129032257,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 155,
          "wins": 97,
          "losses": 58,
          "win_pct": 0.6258064516129033,
          "runs_scored": 799,
          "runs_allowed": 600,
          "run_differential": 199,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2838709677419355,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.4645,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1419,
        "quality_edge": -1.3577,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.6774,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.6774,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.764,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.3577
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.5702,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.5702,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.3577,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.6774,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 7.159,
          "home_runs": 1.528,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.02410647194506919
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.024046336107081186
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.022587767741250056
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.022531420452252572
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.022324803682122685
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.11994273681812861,
          "1": 0.1784407258238441,
          "2": 0.21068024945779118,
          "3": 0.19740742458145513,
          "4": 0.14679557259570744,
          "5": 0.08663078462873848,
          "6": 0.04057339550023997,
          "7": 0.015080657504188551,
          "8": 0.004448453089906717
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0219772109633086,
          "1": 0.035275430462793377,
          "2": 0.052304772731053564,
          "3": 0.07164395771548282,
          "4": 0.09065402067527942,
          "5": 0.10596533723297759,
          "6": 0.11442207804058449,
          "7": 0.11413664151702439,
          "8": 0.10517429266365538,
          "9": 0.08952892355346471,
          "10": 0.07040222387932824,
          "11": 0.0511421103887447,
          "12": 0.034319437800878747,
          "13": 0.021275067013662063,
          "14": 0.0121834689491506,
          "15": 0.006445256968378161,
          "16": 0.0031497694442334215
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.078572742877618,
      "home_runs": 2.5382994361377005,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 1,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_MIN@LAA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAA

Published scoreMIN 4 - 5 LAA

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 54.4% → blended 54.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=490

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0618

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.284861793087952-3.904143975002345	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.010766,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505383,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505383,
    "away_win_probability": 0.494617
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.010766,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.505382625,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.543652,
    "sample_size": 490,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5469,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.545276,
    "published_confidence": 0.505383,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1613,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.476,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0618
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023048564778431035
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022298588030153586
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022037079653614556
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021320015597825048
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02124092438339069
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.059010715457689614,
      "1": 0.09021976401509106,
      "2": 0.1215380245575636,
      "3": 0.14426545150662168,
      "4": 0.15088712554499392,
      "5": 0.13905343152332122,
      "6": 0.11291481207272178,
      "7": 0.08079040795237372,
      "8": 0.05093406824969624,
      "9": 0.028294147318390053,
      "10": 0.013849195140588386,
      "11": 0.005972994827862464,
      "12": 0.0022698618330862764
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06137349402163892,
      "1": 0.09367414806251767,
      "2": 0.12555514928185396,
      "3": 0.14778323829559759,
      "4": 0.1527536872028094,
      "5": 0.13865454141504077,
      "6": 0.11052292467039625,
      "7": 0.07736535309730665,
      "8": 0.04755722755128754,
      "9": 0.025672160451394622,
      "10": 0.01216982075248789,
      "11": 0.005066194021746525,
      "12": 0.0018520611759224044
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 LAA",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 LAA",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.017,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0618,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5054,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5526,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5054,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0618,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.476,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.017,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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    },
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    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260920_NYY@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 6 - 4 ARI

Final confidence54.5%

Calibrationraw 68.0% → blended 61.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=749

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9081

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.4652935389940325-4.321166725356822	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.089766,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.544883,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.455117,
    "away_win_probability": 0.544883
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.089766,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.54488255,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.679922,
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          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.03225806451612903,
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        },
        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.9478,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.3814,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
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          "quality_edge": -0.9081,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.0309,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 2.921,
          "home_win_probability": 0.2062
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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    "validity": {
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_OAK@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreOAK 4 - 7 CLE

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 74.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=123

H2H base featurehome net 13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.4565

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7751560088644616-5.688038240458301	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 123,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5691,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.74455,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.6226,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.148,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.4565
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016546585603563955
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01612675740293054
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.015899606947938665
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015812276519505744
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0154961942115797
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02047390683714844,
      "1": 0.03218207375171822,
      "2": 0.047114219529960616,
      "3": 0.06424134855614294,
      "4": 0.08158343170116422,
      "5": 0.09649703341683943,
      "6": 0.10630424988918763,
      "7": 0.10907167056995959,
      "8": 0.10423125693829925,
      "9": 0.09277023516648976,
      "10": 0.07690312933631858,
      "11": 0.05937505703455848,
      "12": 0.042696152364750044,
      "13": 0.02859552746679122,
      "14": 0.017837424854725836,
      "15": 0.0103631282692644,
      "16": 0.005607564313142849,
      "17": 0.00282606616296418,
      "18": 0.0013265238405742138
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.060010907155153476,
      "1": 0.09168352585534291,
      "2": 0.12324596709879529,
      "3": 0.14577210438654195,
      "4": 0.1517037881339758,
      "5": 0.13891166713354888,
      "6": 0.11191835476691085,
      "7": 0.07933854047922664,
      "8": 0.04948657446200346,
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      "10": 0.013114587970300335,
      "11": 0.005572097711057391,
      "12": 0.0020830662965853263
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0035,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.358,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4565,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6955,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4565,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.148,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0035,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_PHI@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scorePHI 4 - 5 NYM

Final confidence51.7%

Calibrationraw 54.5% → blended 55.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=713

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2613

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.300453229352511-4.231717657438134	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.034646,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.517323,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.517323,
    "away_win_probability": 0.482677
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.034646,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.5173233825,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.544835,
    "sample_size": 713,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5568,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.550817,
    "published_confidence": 0.517323,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5226,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.224,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2613
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023250223759607534
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023138046268403156
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021957656769049847
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021851715644588154
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02176892103120283
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05653992198407758,
      "1": 0.08659453467237682,
      "2": 0.11727201382185057,
      "3": 0.14043226660366856,
      "4": 0.14869900080624318,
      "5": 0.13922518937617806,
      "6": 0.11526466877234175,
      "7": 0.08438071833263454,
      "8": 0.054620900032613565,
      "9": 0.03126389678360806,
      "10": 0.015823260816707086,
      "11": 0.007081373271071714,
      "12": 0.002802254726628518
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06701082553859773,
      "1": 0.10186654482688735,
      "2": 0.1348930159049193,
      "3": 0.15560323971882195,
      "4": 0.15635763275842648,
      "5": 0.13686450144062773,
      "6": 0.1043599432472741,
      "7": 0.06931833621196229,
      "8": 0.04010824946497932,
      "9": 0.020215782957801954,
      "10": 0.008876028874716039,
      "11": 0.003394830754705836,
      "12": 0.0011310683002802055
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0771,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.294,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2613,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5173,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5478,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5173,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2613,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.224,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0771,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.95,
        "new_value": 2.05,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T16:36:32.368882+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-20T17:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.523977,
      "confidence": 0.523977,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.524204,
      "confidence": 0.524204,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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      }
    },
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
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        "score_coherence": {
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
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        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 7.0,
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        "home_average_margin": 1.4,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0404,
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        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 84,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.23225806451612904,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.3871,
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        "quality_edge": -0.2613,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.5226,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.224,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
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        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.0028454954732198092
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.300453229352511,
      "home_runs": 4.231717657438134,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_SEA@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreSEA 9 - 6 COL

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 83.7% → blended 69.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=228

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.921

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.674358574198883-4.25078103433336	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	9-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	9-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	9-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	9-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 9-6 (Extra Innings - 12)",
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 9 - 6 COL",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.837267,
    "sample_size": 228,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5482,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.692733,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0075,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9129,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.936,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.921
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.012245616171937227
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.012217087847929948
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.011888843482344013
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.011868267407298167
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.011861146323281212
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03199490434544446,
      "1": 0.04986142545388006,
      "2": 0.07114008479131052,
      "3": 0.09292442475231005,
      "4": 0.11112485274599544,
      "5": 0.12166294646088763,
      "6": 0.12194704362049875,
      "7": 0.11190514042325236,
      "8": 0.09401445036252101,
      "9": 0.0723111054136493,
      "10": 0.05091915691081638,
      "11": 0.03282639736153855,
      "12": 0.019374524595360328,
      "13": 0.010468987990917627,
      "14": 0.005178979153475879,
      "15": 0.0023455756181414923
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.014220043544614243,
      "1": 0.02246646361098294,
      "2": 0.03339905307903702,
      "3": 0.04671961319052255,
      "4": 0.06149360727619374,
      "5": 0.07615989708461186,
      "6": 0.08875408972139394,
      "7": 0.09732312530865787,
      "8": 0.10041749113693801,
      "9": 0.09749185490172516,
      "10": 0.0890621033182319,
      "11": 0.07655670062323269,
      "12": 0.06192116466677113,
      "13": 0.0471260100389134,
      "14": 0.03374798703443989,
      "15": 0.02274053735647204,
      "16": 0.014418471359229747,
      "17": 0.008602077726788752,
      "18": 0.004828954939220809,
      "19": 0.0025507540820222862
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SEA 9 - 6 COL",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SEA 9 - 6 COL",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0383,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.936,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "COL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.921,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6079,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.921,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.936,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0383,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
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          "11": 0.03132673645010618,
          "12": 0.017996158013088633,
          "13": 0.009422028224984468,
          "14": 0.004495820494438518,
          "15": 0.0019551202923854118
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0131537300777978,
          "1": 0.021274975281806215,
          "2": 0.03227745184963815,
          "3": 0.04593454923488548,
          "4": 0.06131824482629043,
          "5": 0.07678033639351325,
          "6": 0.09018210021127018,
          "7": 0.09935751456185479,
          "8": 0.1026812464962116,
          "9": 0.09953861290462605,
          "10": 0.09051114855614897,
          "11": 0.07720094326913517,
          "12": 0.061766526166566346,
          "13": 0.04635470119241012,
          "14": 0.032632055754057386,
          "15": 0.02154790846340643,
          "16": 0.01334675993041911,
          "17": 0.007754550256139676,
          "18": 0.0042261744513099955,
          "19": 0.00216047012251286
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.674358574198883,
      "home_runs": 4.25078103433336,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_SF@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreSF 4 - 8 LAD

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 81.0% → blended 77.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 61.1% · weight 18.0% · n=36

H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.6478

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	2.5733083873046563-5.991158277323872	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 8-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 8 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.810252,
    "sample_size": 36,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.6111,
    "empirical_weight": 0.18,
    "blended_confidence": 0.774404,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.0613,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.88,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.6478
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014535656806175856
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.014394328384955067
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014117935074587
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.013980668110899385
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.013968921638979928
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0191063671595936,
      "1": 0.030065017165592338,
      "2": 0.04415801407102794,
      "3": 0.06053720299225754,
      "4": 0.07746399833684921,
      "5": 0.09252140263937671,
      "6": 0.10314525339609072,
      "7": 0.10732997458929863,
      "8": 0.10424555512104448,
      "9": 0.0945058748075074,
      "10": 0.07996957854324442,
      "11": 0.06316195272002291,
      "12": 0.04656408031654867,
      "13": 0.03204138287144775,
      "14": 0.020579566094770258,
      "15": 0.012337464509956961,
      "16": 0.006903675337909506,
      "17": 0.0036057826350034965,
      "18": 0.001757856692457748
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04458070071066573,
      "1": 0.06885418364302763,
      "2": 0.09562660324651748,
      "3": 0.11942412781338536,
      "4": 0.13411284629513234,
      "5": 0.13542961192152503,
      "6": 0.1229764185869717,
      "7": 0.10041416954635035,
      "8": 0.07372811211522895,
      "9": 0.04867838697727325,
      "10": 0.028900422847131887,
      "11": 0.015428978291316328,
      "12": 0.0074068763002720596,
      "13": 0.0031974073444907465,
      "14": 0.0012411543607111096
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 8 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "SF 4 - 8 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0144,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.09,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 8
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 8
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6478,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 8,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6478,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.88,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0144,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.95,
        "new_value": 2.05,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T19:36:28.965790+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-20T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.613015,
      "confidence": 0.613015,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 12
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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      "confidence": 0.614733,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 6,
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            "683363": 6
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.7613,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_TOR@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreTOR 2 - 4 TEX

Final confidence55.0%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 57.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=490

H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2463

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.629328652476163-4.104117469092586	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.10093,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.550465,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.550465,
    "away_win_probability": 0.449535
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.10093,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.5504645,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.609947,
    "sample_size": 490,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5469,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.578423,
    "published_confidence": 0.550465,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1355,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.452,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2463
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.026030984953697718
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024873256737901944
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02426767084714297
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02400848911332598
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.023807877862594393
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05888698273870956,
      "1": 0.09003853280338624,
      "2": 0.12132597693348954,
      "3": 0.14407726808538834,
      "4": 0.15078335889910363,
      "5": 0.13906813887522987,
      "6": 0.1130363569385754,
      "7": 0.08097014969328381,
      "8": 0.051114958521881866,
      "9": 0.028437234791959174,
      "10": 0.013942575191417129,
      "11": 0.0060244153626682955,
      "12": 0.002294051164907318
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08187101601101117,
      "1": 0.12313029967213075,
      "2": 0.1578945981600356,
      "3": 0.17263831462407134,
      "4": 0.16094395976005302,
      "5": 0.12793216698201312,
      "6": 0.08670665050823176,
      "7": 0.05010633555633207,
      "8": 0.024688826898082987,
      "9": 0.010372318553319613,
      "10": 0.0037155132747185167
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1146,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.802,
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      "thresholds": {
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        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 4
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    },
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      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6552,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 13,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 8
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    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.5032258064516129,
          "runs_scored": 651,
          "runs_allowed": 680,
          "run_differential": -29,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.1870967741935484,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TOR",
          "games": 155,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.49032258064516127,
          "runs_scored": 622,
          "runs_allowed": 669,
          "run_differential": -47,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3032258064516129,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1161,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0129,
        "quality_edge": 0.2463,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1355,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1355,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.452,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.2463
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02706446563659794
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.02464003615363244
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.057238573395530845,
          "1": 0.08944473573073068,
          "2": 0.12238339604236978,
          "3": 0.1466195716027007,
          "4": 0.1538024037053379,
          "5": 0.14126547377606877,
          "6": 0.1136084588762254,
          "7": 0.0799994567025216,
          "8": 0.049324777787009,
          "9": 0.026628393614769374,
          "10": 0.012587124542855427,
          "11": 0.005209665287384063,
          "12": 0.001887968936496562
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08031812885027498,
          "1": 0.12334947364795379,
          "2": 0.1602057936678221,
          "3": 0.17596906800266499,
          "4": 0.16346005802258154,
          "5": 0.12841157196515543,
          "6": 0.0853127369704491,
          "7": 0.04793368156953521,
          "8": 0.022776390320580184,
          "9": 0.009152636316553208,
          "10": 0.0031104606664293386
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.629328652476163,
      "home_runs": 4.104117469092586,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260920_WAS@STL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickWAS

Published scoreWAS 6 - 5 STL

Final confidence51.2%

Calibrationraw 56.9% → blended 55.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=490

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3526

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.334050897143371-5.076074385994112	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.02499,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.512495,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.487505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.512495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02499,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 6 - 5 STL",
    "confidence": 0.512495204,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.568913,
    "sample_size": 490,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5469,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.557906,
    "published_confidence": 0.512495,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2323,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.576,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3526
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019248300246212525
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01896189298207488
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01869097842927214
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018412863898248193
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017670104057603428
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05085525440426786,
      "1": 0.07820418334675061,
      "2": 0.10720388241024047,
      "3": 0.13100184633739465,
      "4": 0.1427022083678869,
      "5": 0.13857036020302646,
      "6": 0.11994892833819616,
      "7": 0.0925568941539645,
      "8": 0.06366599754981914,
      "9": 0.03903846186387735,
      "10": 0.02133851645138781,
      "11": 0.010397337001242159,
      "12": 0.004516129571945953
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04376193383086692,
      "1": 0.06762883185467006,
      "2": 0.09408840251743769,
      "3": 0.11784444949794251,
      "4": 0.13287736187789778,
      "5": 0.13488438943138373,
      "6": 0.12326540636594358,
      "7": 0.10141204985630226,
      "8": 0.07511155254124603,
      "9": 0.05008327781816158,
      "10": 0.030064056460801295,
      "11": 0.01624692741778418,
      "12": 0.007904305736751983,
      "13": 0.003461983936671375,
      "14": 0.0013650708561391619
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 6 - 5 STL",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 6 - 5 STL",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0292,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.646,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3526,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5125,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5538,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5125,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3526,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.576,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0292,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.95,
        "new_value": 2.05,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:39:56.873861+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-20T18:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.478382,
      "confidence": 0.521618,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.477836,
      "confidence": 0.5221640000000001,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.568913,
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      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.557906,
        "final_confidence": 0.5304,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5304,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 490,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5453,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3526,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          },
          "margin": -1,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 7,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
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          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.7292,
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          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -8.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.6,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0462,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0462,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -8.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
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          "losses": 80,
          "win_pct": 0.4838709677419355,
          "runs_scored": 699,
          "runs_allowed": 724,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.16129032258064516,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "WAS",
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          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.47096774193548385,
          "runs_scored": 795,
          "runs_allowed": 781,
          "run_differential": 14,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.09032258064516129,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2516,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0129,
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        "season_quality_edge": -0.2323,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.576,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.334050897143371,
      "home_runs": 5.076074385994112,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260920	20260920_ATL@HOU	ATL	58.0%	69.3%	56.2%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	4-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.692902, "sample_size": 642, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.627601, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -3.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0525, "away_run_delta": 0.0525, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2645, "recent_quality_edge": -0.676, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0585 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023721142069577414 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023409852765292297 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021958400734406944 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021744230897263732 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021670243643665776 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08510912512863508, "1": 0.12769205528734606, "2": 0.1625643069210689, "3": 0.17561438406006993, "4": 0.16097874649890073, "5": 0.1252133302123433, "6": 0.08264301633280001, "7": 0.04628447285607247, "8": 0.021995713401653814, "9": 0.00886981070182725, "10": 0.0030350385992823116 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04404125802491941, "1": 0.06804702162202383, "2": 0.09461399990284135, "3": 0.11838551339608924, "4": 0.13330259301131517, "5": 0.13507516594690477, "6": 0.12317123582702413, "7": 0.10107411906410227, "8": 0.0746392913700516, "9": 0.049601170711704834, "10": 0.029662873750541146, "11": 0.015963620558740423, "12": 0.0077311917764480535, "13": 0.0033694450099544734, "14": 0.0013215000273393417 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 3 HOU", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 3 HOU", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0322, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.026, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0585, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_BOS@TB	TB	55.2%	56.4%	56.8%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-5	hit	Variance Applied (-0.0535)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5636, "sample_size": 414, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5676, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5656, "published_confidence": 0.551722, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0737, "recent_quality_edge": 0.844, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3433 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01857368209161923 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018181435452608256 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017830125752627962 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017518892169713626 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017453581841457698 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.039720354109287107, "1": 0.06155971398502793, "2": 0.08638634613243568, "3": 0.10976367692404249, "4": 0.12628076918365605, "5": 0.13154696122974197, "6": 0.12407647647190023, "7": 0.10596516372859378, "8": 0.0819411028981529, "9": 0.05737273145674614, "10": 0.036372594278116455, "11": 0.0208789214201943, "12": 0.010851927191338642, "13": 0.005107057090873531, "14": 0.0021762038998926654 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.049604031652005186, "1": 0.0763482284376001, "2": 0.1049404677526079, "3": 0.12880984870135967, "4": 0.1411943074776237, "5": 0.13821250816166739, "6": 0.12082020044934226, "7": 0.09431782965508084, "8": 0.06575216972519136, "9": 0.040934399274975525, "10": 0.022757722491900986, "11": 0.011298771254097095, "12": 0.005009514966548113 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0081, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.634, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3433, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_CHC@CIN	CHC	56.0%	92.0%	54.9%	50.0%	8.0-4.0	9-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 226, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5487, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.73435, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -12.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.0645, "recent_quality_edge": -1.004, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.6933 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015148391277368532 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.014886955902746454 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014675868155640428 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.014422587723486145 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014410274355564833 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05121481124702857, "1": 0.0787369081066643, "2": 0.10785114584873179, "3": 0.13162391288727598, "4": 0.1431226792953306, "5": 0.13865825967661133, "6": 0.11968691116391456, "7": 0.09204733090616478, "8": 0.0630724015230517, "9": 0.03850624428520273, "10": 0.020945299885655706, "11": 0.010150925272090631, "12": 0.004383169902277092 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01813200294010374, "1": 0.02855415475807444, "2": 0.04203760450176004, "3": 0.0578564435158649, "4": 0.07444073117326248, "5": 0.08953949683153627, "6": 0.10068477215850284, "7": 0.10584200457923339, "8": 0.10401535225614061, "9": 0.09556127919557209, "10": 0.08207513162352606, "11": 0.06590014101377172, "12": 0.04946593502638542, "13": 0.03471132759268343, "14": 0.02277096043420427, "15": 0.01396486031077907, "16": 0.008006394139806512, "17": 0.004291236582663998, "18": 0.0021501713661286294 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 8 - 4 CIN", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 8 - 4 CIN", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0589, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.934, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6933, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_DET@CHW	DET	56.0%	73.1%	57.1%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-8	miss	Variance Applied (0.0524)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.730973, "sample_size": 352, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.571, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.650987, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 0.8, "home_run_delta": 0.0231, "away_run_delta": -0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2, "recent_quality_edge": -0.76, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.396 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01941289306284455 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01903098360719867 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018964006538115356 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018590928018062187 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01805643536607702 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06331029331111199, "1": 0.09649666872076237, "2": 0.1288025238187686, "3": 0.15056030360673597, "4": 0.15412413339725853, "5": 0.13816717257985175, "6": 0.1084708766169585, "7": 0.07457538196015706, "8": 0.04490057263082055, "9": 0.023674582551218973, "10": 0.010931678156480818, "11": 0.004420438990205039, "12": 0.0015653736596698367 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03483819740394585, "1": 0.05418299492362951, "2": 0.07683924094335436, "3": 0.09936097713812066, "4": 0.11715514610249998, "5": 0.12595621876301077, "6": 0.12347828459898536, "7": 0.11037590788533361, "8": 0.08996440636641938, "9": 0.06686207905852878, "10": 0.04531080346378702, "11": 0.027998604006053345, "12": 0.015775521379530495, "13": 0.008104827823703734, "14": 0.0037967901430970108 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0358, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.55, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.396, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_KC@PIT	PIT	57.3%	58.6%	55.7%	50.0%	2.0-3.0	3-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 122, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5574, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5719, "published_confidence": 0.572799, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 2.0, "home_run_delta": 0.03, "away_run_delta": -0.03, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9387, "recent_quality_edge": 0.432, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7614 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.037977763705028346 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03546636715986223 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.034682776056224766 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03438640361965756 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.032994254734985136 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08746158378902273, "1": 0.13099075561020265, "2": 0.16588558299923203, "3": 0.17763204911343317, "4": 0.16083430778186175, "5": 0.12313478287950133, "6": 0.0797126945322744, "7": 0.04363338609453767, "8": 0.020195519549691385, "9": 0.007903797954949079, "10": 0.002615539695293782 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.12803223628402174, "1": 0.18574494242261147, "2": 0.21380017792158842, "3": 0.19525066692259382, "4": 0.14147196586699706, "5": 0.08132829162982665, "6": 0.03709422566207027, "7": 0.013423456767419444, "8": 0.003854036522871096 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "KC 2 - 3 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "KC 2 - 3 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0053, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.782, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7614, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_MIA@SD	SD	58.0%	84.5%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	3-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.845261, "sample_size": 236, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5593, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.702281, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 16.0, "absolute_net_margin": 16.0, "home_average_margin": 3.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0923, "away_run_delta": -0.0923, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.329, "recent_quality_edge": 1.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.5667 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01739812310130491 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01726254989179147 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.016983449866694447 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.016851107958683366 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01624743134756884 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02387123837046976, "1": 0.03742556328830599, "2": 0.054368405984077176, "3": 0.07318291654755867, "4": 0.0912762281206899, "5": 0.10548495340235148, "6": 0.1129557137598945, "7": 0.11207551716867933, "8": 0.10303817490679215, "9": 0.08777491589704767, "10": 0.06928313726007171, "11": 0.050672172755396254, "12": 0.03433968972694947, "13": 0.02156294452183737, "14": 0.012545980921881566, "15": 0.006763726509097534, "16": 0.00337872085889944 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06316476082378529, "1": 0.09628486809695506, "2": 0.12855993896901025, "3": 0.15035494267067798, "4": 0.15402605607262518, "5": 0.13820861503852377, "6": 0.10862767114219193, "7": 0.07478426965378916, "8": 0.04509667045227875, "9": 0.023820075537327963, "10": 0.011020624983992405, "11": 0.004466154554733586, "12": 0.0015853520041085587 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 6 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0206, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.358, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5667, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_MIL@BAL	MIL	62.9%	92.0%	100.0%	2.5%	7.0-1.0	3-0	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 5, "empirical_hit_rate": 1.0, "empirical_weight": 0.025, "blended_confidence": 0.922, "published_confidence": 0.62922, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.015, "away_run_delta": 0.015, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.6774, "recent_quality_edge": -0.764, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.3577 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.023183079301409518 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.023128064692502896 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021791610749377386 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.021739898165072446 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021550222030974422 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.12107418634891688, "1": 0.1766672199388382, "2": 0.20690323872034214, "3": 0.19448472665600872, "4": 0.1467271935498228, "5": 0.08884696950717917, "6": 0.043179889357068756, "7": 0.016843305639030443, "8": 0.005273270282793047 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.023324890572950688, "1": 0.036584319584627455, "2": 0.053213172324338594, "3": 0.07177812664325427, "4": 0.08978708855695633, "5": 0.10415604010965956, "6": 0.1120479285137948, "7": 0.1117820331646119, "8": 0.10341629583278517, "9": 0.0887267865105203, "10": 0.07059424989899105, "11": 0.052087402946603016, "12": 0.03564058972321392, "13": 0.02261548258773818, "14": 0.013308087218948645, "15": 0.007262300553018059, "16": 0.003675205257987891 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 1 BAL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "MIL 7 - 1 BAL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0015, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.114, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 1, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 6, "simulation_margin": 6, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 1 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 1 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 6, "final_margin": 6, "winner_quality_edge": 1.3577, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 1, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_MIN@LAA	LAA	50.5%	54.4%	54.7%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	8-0	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.543652, "sample_size": 490, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5469, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.545276, "published_confidence": 0.505383, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1613, "recent_quality_edge": 0.476, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0618 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023048564778431035 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022298588030153586 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022037079653614556 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021320015597825048 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02124092438339069 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.059010715457689614, "1": 0.09021976401509106, "2": 0.1215380245575636, "3": 0.14426545150662168, "4": 0.15088712554499392, "5": 0.13905343152332122, "6": 0.11291481207272178, "7": 0.08079040795237372, "8": 0.05093406824969624, "9": 0.028294147318390053, "10": 0.013849195140588386, "11": 0.005972994827862464, "12": 0.0022698618330862764 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06137349402163892, "1": 0.09367414806251767, "2": 0.12555514928185396, "3": 0.14778323829559759, "4": 0.1527536872028094, "5": 0.13865454141504077, "6": 0.11052292467039625, "7": 0.07736535309730665, "8": 0.04755722755128754, "9": 0.025672160451394622, "10": 0.01216982075248789, "11": 0.005066194021746525, "12": 0.0018520611759224044 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 LAA", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 LAA", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.017, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.406, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0618, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_NYY@ARI	NYY	54.5%	68.0%	55.8%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	4-8	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.679922, "sample_size": 749, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5581, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.619011, "published_confidence": 0.544883, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -2.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0375, "away_run_delta": 0.0375, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0309, "recent_quality_edge": -0.68, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9081 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017474970673403707 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017182745675124282 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01674945093815011 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01646935843538948 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.016313742705869685 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05288501602540803, "1": 0.08120792278287203, "2": 0.11083929450550074, "3": 0.13446792192633056, "4": 0.14500174319282355, "5": 0.1389816114112761, "6": 0.11840527524915405, "7": 0.08966322389962808, "8": 0.06035138457320812, "9": 0.03610685945384938, "10": 0.01920090869153062, "11": 0.009075769109162924, "12": 0.003813069179255806 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.030150794613078274, "1": 0.04704964585098908, "2": 0.0673949281541091, "3": 0.08861583416460864, "4": 0.10695687479711823, "5": 0.1185002696986521, "6": 0.12051559028614892, "7": 0.11250721782134471, "8": 0.09641193460558349, "9": 0.07583932679679876, "10": 0.054761003797163865, "11": 0.03629623607004138, "12": 0.02208335433195028, "13": 0.012333369707667768, "14": 0.0063228331115394235, "15": 0.0029754656921296046, "16": 0.0012853205010764405 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 ARI", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 6 - 4 ARI", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0091, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.68, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9081, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_OAK@CLE	CLE	58.0%	92.0%	56.9%	50.0%	4.0-7.0	0-1	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 123, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5691, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.74455, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": 2.6, "home_run_delta": 0.075, "away_run_delta": -0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.6226, "recent_quality_edge": 1.148, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.4565 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016546585603563955 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01612675740293054 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.015899606947938665 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015812276519505744 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0154961942115797 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02047390683714844, "1": 0.03218207375171822, "2": 0.047114219529960616, "3": 0.06424134855614294, "4": 0.08158343170116422, "5": 0.09649703341683943, "6": 0.10630424988918763, "7": 0.10907167056995959, "8": 0.10423125693829925, "9": 0.09277023516648976, "10": 0.07690312933631858, "11": 0.05937505703455848, "12": 0.042696152364750044, "13": 0.02859552746679122, "14": 0.017837424854725836, "15": 0.0103631282692644, "16": 0.005607564313142849, "17": 0.00282606616296418, "18": 0.0013265238405742138 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.060010907155153476, "1": 0.09168352585534291, "2": 0.12324596709879529, "3": 0.14577210438654195, "4": 0.1517037881339758, "5": 0.13891166713354888, "6": 0.11191835476691085, "7": 0.07933854047922664, "8": 0.04948657446200346, "9": 0.027158818550557646, "10": 0.013114587970300335, "11": 0.005572097711057391, "12": 0.0020830662965853263 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0035, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.358, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4565, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_PHI@NYM	NYM	51.7%	54.5%	55.7%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	7-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.544835, "sample_size": 713, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5568, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.550817, "published_confidence": 0.517323, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0404, "away_run_delta": -0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5226, "recent_quality_edge": 0.224, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2613 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023250223759607534 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023138046268403156 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021957656769049847 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021851715644588154 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02176892103120283 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05653992198407758, "1": 0.08659453467237682, "2": 0.11727201382185057, "3": 0.14043226660366856, "4": 0.14869900080624318, "5": 0.13922518937617806, "6": 0.11526466877234175, "7": 0.08438071833263454, "8": 0.054620900032613565, "9": 0.03126389678360806, "10": 0.015823260816707086, "11": 0.007081373271071714, "12": 0.002802254726628518 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06701082553859773, "1": 0.10186654482688735, "2": 0.1348930159049193, "3": 0.15560323971882195, "4": 0.15635763275842648, "5": 0.13686450144062773, "6": 0.1043599432472741, "7": 0.06931833621196229, "8": 0.04010824946497932, "9": 0.020215782957801954, "10": 0.008876028874716039, "11": 0.003394830754705836, "12": 0.0011310683002802055 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0771, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.294, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2613, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_SEA@COL	SEA	56.0%	83.7%	54.8%	50.0%	9.0-6.0	2-1	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.837267, "sample_size": 228, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5482, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.692733, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0075, "away_run_delta": -0.0075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9129, "recent_quality_edge": -0.936, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.921 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.012245616171937227 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.012217087847929948 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.011888843482344013 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.011868267407298167 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.011861146323281212 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03199490434544446, "1": 0.04986142545388006, "2": 0.07114008479131052, "3": 0.09292442475231005, "4": 0.11112485274599544, "5": 0.12166294646088763, "6": 0.12194704362049875, "7": 0.11190514042325236, "8": 0.09401445036252101, "9": 0.0723111054136493, "10": 0.05091915691081638, "11": 0.03282639736153855, "12": 0.019374524595360328, "13": 0.010468987990917627, "14": 0.005178979153475879, "15": 0.0023455756181414923 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.014220043544614243, "1": 0.02246646361098294, "2": 0.03339905307903702, "3": 0.04671961319052255, "4": 0.06149360727619374, "5": 0.07615989708461186, "6": 0.08875408972139394, "7": 0.09732312530865787, "8": 0.10041749113693801, "9": 0.09749185490172516, "10": 0.0890621033182319, "11": 0.07655670062323269, "12": 0.06192116466677113, "13": 0.0471260100389134, "14": 0.03374798703443989, "15": 0.02274053735647204, "16": 0.014418471359229747, "17": 0.008602077726788752, "18": 0.004828954939220809, "19": 0.0025507540820222862 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SEA 9 - 6 COL", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SEA 9 - 6 COL", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0383, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.936, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "COL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.921, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_SF@LAD	LAD	58.0%	81.0%	61.1%	18.0%	4.0-8.0	1-3	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.810252, "sample_size": 36, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.6111, "empirical_weight": 0.18, "blended_confidence": 0.774404, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0865, "away_run_delta": -0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.0613, "recent_quality_edge": 0.88, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.6478 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014535656806175856 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014394328384955067 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014117935074587 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.013980668110899385 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.013968921638979928 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0191063671595936, "1": 0.030065017165592338, "2": 0.04415801407102794, "3": 0.06053720299225754, "4": 0.07746399833684921, "5": 0.09252140263937671, "6": 0.10314525339609072, "7": 0.10732997458929863, "8": 0.10424555512104448, "9": 0.0945058748075074, "10": 0.07996957854324442, "11": 0.06316195272002291, "12": 0.04656408031654867, "13": 0.03204138287144775, "14": 0.020579566094770258, "15": 0.012337464509956961, "16": 0.006903675337909506, "17": 0.0036057826350034965, "18": 0.001757856692457748 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04458070071066573, "1": 0.06885418364302763, "2": 0.09562660324651748, "3": 0.11942412781338536, "4": 0.13411284629513234, "5": 0.13542961192152503, "6": 0.1229764185869717, "7": 0.10041416954635035, "8": 0.07372811211522895, "9": 0.04867838697727325, "10": 0.028900422847131887, "11": 0.015428978291316328, "12": 0.0074068763002720596, "13": 0.0031974073444907465, "14": 0.0012411543607111096 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "SF 4 - 8 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "SF 4 - 8 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0144, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.09, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6478, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_TOR@TEX	TEX	55.0%	61.0%	54.7%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	7-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.609947, "sample_size": 490, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5469, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.578423, "published_confidence": 0.550465, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0865, "away_run_delta": -0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1355, "recent_quality_edge": 0.452, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2463 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026030984953697718 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024873256737901944 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02426767084714297 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02400848911332598 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.023807877862594393 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05888698273870956, "1": 0.09003853280338624, "2": 0.12132597693348954, "3": 0.14407726808538834, "4": 0.15078335889910363, "5": 0.13906813887522987, "6": 0.1130363569385754, "7": 0.08097014969328381, "8": 0.051114958521881866, "9": 0.028437234791959174, "10": 0.013942575191417129, "11": 0.0060244153626682955, "12": 0.002294051164907318 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08187101601101117, "1": 0.12313029967213075, "2": 0.1578945981600356, "3": 0.17263831462407134, "4": 0.16094395976005302, "5": 0.12793216698201312, "6": 0.08670665050823176, "7": 0.05010633555633207, "8": 0.024688826898082987, "9": 0.010372318553319613, "10": 0.0037155132747185167 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1146, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.802, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2463, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260920	20260920_WAS@STL	WAS	51.2%	56.9%	54.7%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	3-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.568913, "sample_size": 490, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5469, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.557906, "published_confidence": 0.512495, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -1.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0462, "away_run_delta": 0.0462, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2323, "recent_quality_edge": -0.576, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3526 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019248300246212525 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01896189298207488 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01869097842927214 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018412863898248193 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017670104057603428 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05085525440426786, "1": 0.07820418334675061, "2": 0.10720388241024047, "3": 0.13100184633739465, "4": 0.1427022083678869, "5": 0.13857036020302646, "6": 0.11994892833819616, "7": 0.0925568941539645, "8": 0.06366599754981914, "9": 0.03903846186387735, "10": 0.02133851645138781, "11": 0.010397337001242159, "12": 0.004516129571945953 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04376193383086692, "1": 0.06762883185467006, "2": 0.09408840251743769, "3": 0.11784444949794251, "4": 0.13287736187789778, "5": 0.13488438943138373, "6": 0.12326540636594358, "7": 0.10141204985630226, "8": 0.07511155254124603, "9": 0.05008327781816158, "10": 0.030064056460801295, "11": 0.01624692741778418, "12": 0.007904305736751983, "13": 0.003461983936671375, "14": 0.0013650708561391619 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 5 STL", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 5 STL", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0292, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.646, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3526, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.8667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4 }
R	{ "mae": 1.8667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.0 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.8333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.9 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.6333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.5333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5333 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1333 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 4.1667, "mae_innings": 1.3889, "bias_outs": 1.1 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260920

20260920_ATL@HOU

away

Martín Pérez

True

5.2

4.1

-4

-1

4/6

2/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0726392251815984,
      "WHIP": 1.2566585956416465,
      "IP": 137.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2438,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0207,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9514,
      "walk_factor": 1.026,
      "homer_factor": 0.9633,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 137.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.073,
      "season_WHIP": 1.257,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7342,
            "WHIP": 1.519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.56962,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64557,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 808.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 80.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5796,
            "WHIP": 1.3567,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28662,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89809,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.66879,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05732
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        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 137.2,
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          "per_game": {
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.767,
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        },
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          "form": 4.831,
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        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.556,
          "final": 2.3268,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.735,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0192,
          "final": 3.0192,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4021,
          "final": 1.4021,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7869329358325468,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2,
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          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "player_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5871,
        "runs_scored": 718.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 118.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7613,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6323,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.871,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4968,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 743.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3677,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4258,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7935,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
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          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0145,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0182,
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        "strikeout": 1.0108
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "527048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "527048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 544.0,
            "k_percent": 17.4,
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            "pa": 135.0,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "527048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.16206194646246,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2438,
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_ATL@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_ATL@HOU

home

Hunter Brown

True

5.2

5.0

-2

-4

6/3

1/2

5/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4329896907216493,
      "WHIP": 1.288659793814433,
      "IP": 97.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.389,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4588,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.961,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0383,
      "walk_factor": 1.06,
      "homer_factor": 0.9516,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.1,
      "bb_percent": 12.1,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.282,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 26.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 87,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 485.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8588,
            "WHIP": 1.2706,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95294,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31765,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34118,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07059
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 67.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 6.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 95.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1754,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80702,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36842,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17544,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10526
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 97.0,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 76.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 406.0,
            "Pitches": 1683.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0556,
            "R": 2.2222,
            "H": 4.2222,
            "BB": 2.7222,
            "SO": 6.1111,
            "HR": 0.6111,
            "BF": 22.5556,
            "Pitches": 93.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.433,
            "WHIP": 1.2887,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38144,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78351,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50515,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13402,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1134
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.099,
        "predicted_H": 5.012,
        "predicted_BB": 2.097,
        "predicted_SO": 6.597,
        "predicted_HR": 0.584,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3644,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2663
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.099,
          "final": 2.939,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.012,
          "final": 5.4485,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.097,
          "final": 1.6123,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.597,
          "final": 5.4495,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.584,
          "final": 0.326,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3644,
          "final": 3.3644,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2663,
          "final": 1.2663,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 67,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.0,
        "WHIP": 1.1754385964912282,
        "K9": 10.578947368421053,
        "HR9": 0.9473684210526315,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8296946969231714,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686613",
      "player_name": "Hunter Brown",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.25,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4968,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 743.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3677,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4258,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7935,
        "offense_index": 0.9855,
        "defense_index": 0.9369,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -20.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1178
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5871,
        "runs_scored": 718.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 118.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7613,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6323,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.871,
        "offense_index": 1.0315,
        "defense_index": 1.1602,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2023
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3201,
        "offense_edge": -0.0145,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0315,
        "defense_strength": -0.0631,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1602,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.984,
        "run_prevention": 1.0274,
        "strikeout": 0.9879
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686613",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686613",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 386.0,
            "k_percent": 27.1,
            "bb_percent": 12.1,
            "woba": 0.299,
            "xwoba": 0.282,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.5049,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2689,
            "whiff_percent": 26.6,
            "swing_percent": 41.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.593,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2579,
            "regression_edge": 0.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.85,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2286,
            "bb_edge": -0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1392
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686613",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.33714491013515,
                "release_spin_rate": 2193.36097163242,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3371,
              "release_spin_rate": 2193.361,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1392,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9945,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4588,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.961,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0383,
          "walk_factor": 1.06,
          "homer_factor": 0.9516,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "686613",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.961,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.961,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9516,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0383,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_ATL@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_BOS@TB

away

Patrick Sandoval

True

4.2

7.0

5/4

1/2

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.994219653179191,
      "WHIP": 1.7861271676300579,
      "IP": 57.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.806,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3039,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0258,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
      "walk_factor": 1.036,
      "homer_factor": 1.0166,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.2,
      "bb_percent": 10.9,
      "woba": 0.372,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 757,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663776",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3239,
            "WHIP": 1.6901,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59155,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14085,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5493,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14085,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12676
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 874.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 87.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0276,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55862,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24138,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.55862,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07586,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 74.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 267.0,
            "Pitches": 1015.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.1667,
            "BB": 2.4167,
            "SO": 5.1667,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.25,
            "Pitches": 84.5833
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9942,
            "WHIP": 1.7861,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55491,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28324,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50289,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07514,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10405
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.587,
        "predicted_H": 5.316,
        "predicted_BB": 2.305,
        "predicted_SO": 4.923,
        "predicted_HR": 0.581,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9893,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.633
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.587,
          "final": 3.2571,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.316,
          "final": 5.1661,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.305,
          "final": 1.6861,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.923,
          "final": 5.4338,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.581,
          "final": 0.7797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9893,
          "final": 4.9893,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.633,
          "final": 1.633,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 5.027586206896552,
        "WHIP": 1.7999999999999998,
        "K9": 9.682758620689654,
        "HR9": 0.9310344827586207,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.073412180286753,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
          "prior_weight": 0.2941
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663776",
      "player_name": "Patrick Sandoval",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 2.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 155,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5419,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 593.0,
        "run_differential": 84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5419,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3677,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8258,
        "offense_index": 0.9726,
        "defense_index": 1.1739,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.067
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6104,
        "runs_scored": 702.0,
        "runs_allowed": 623.0,
        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.513,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5584,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0455,
        "offense_index": 1.015,
        "defense_index": 1.1101,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2617
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1947,
        "offense_edge": -0.0274,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.015,
        "defense_strength": 0.1739,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1101,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9968,
        "run_prevention": 0.9947,
        "strikeout": 0.993
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663776",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663776",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 252.0,
            "k_percent": 23.2,
            "bb_percent": 10.9,
            "woba": 0.372,
            "xwoba": 0.35,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.2705,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.6286,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "663776",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.9478,
              "release_spin_rate": 2158.5344,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1066,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7613,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3039,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0258,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0097,
          "walk_factor": 1.036,
          "homer_factor": 1.0166,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.022,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663776",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0258,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0258,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.036,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0166,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_BOS@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_BOS@TB

home

Griffin Jax

True

5.0

-3

2/3

3/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5367412140575083,
      "WHIP": 1.159744408945687,
      "IP": 104.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.54,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0016,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0001,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0497,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 1.0586,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.7,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 361,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 104.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.537,
      "season_WHIP": 1.16,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 371.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 74.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4714,
            "WHIP": 1.1143,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 204.0,
            "Pitches": 760.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2914,
            "WHIP": 1.0728,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81457,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25828,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13245,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11921
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 104.1,
            "ER": 41.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 89.0,
            "BB": 32.0,
            "SO": 110.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 425.0,
            "Pitches": 1582.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.3226,
            "R": 1.6452,
            "H": 2.871,
            "BB": 1.0323,
            "SO": 3.5484,
            "HR": 0.4839,
            "BF": 13.7097,
            "Pitches": 51.0323
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5367,
            "WHIP": 1.1597,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39297,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30671,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05431,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14377
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.979,
        "predicted_H": 3.946,
        "predicted_BB": 1.295,
        "predicted_SO": 5.124,
        "predicted_HR": 0.526,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8856,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1434
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.979,
          "final": 2.3963,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.946,
          "final": 3.1507,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.295,
          "final": 1.9918,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.124,
          "final": 5.482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.526,
          "final": 0.7197,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8856,
          "final": 3.8856,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1434,
          "final": 1.1434,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.291390728476822,
        "WHIP": 1.0728476821192054,
        "K9": 10.192052980132452,
        "HR9": 1.0728476821192054,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9724113810175132,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "643377",
      "player_name": "Griffin Jax",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 154,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6104,
        "runs_scored": 702.0,
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        "run_differential": 79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.513,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5584,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0455,
        "offense_index": 1.015,
        "defense_index": 1.1101,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 26.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5419,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 593.0,
        "run_differential": 84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5419,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3677,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8258,
        "offense_index": 0.9726,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -5.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1947,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1739,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0122,
        "run_prevention": 0.9749,
        "strikeout": 1.008
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "643377",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "643377",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "643377",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2573.7540952383274,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.69040072946703,
                "release_spin_rate": 2573.7540952383274,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6904,
              "release_spin_rate": 2573.7541,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.103,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7358,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0016,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0001,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0497,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 1.0586,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "643377",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0001,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0001,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0586,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0497,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_BOS@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_CHC@CIN

away

David Peterson

True

5.0

6.0

-3

6/3

1/1

3/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.1116504854368925,
      "WHIP": 1.5509708737864076,
      "IP": 137.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.016,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3026,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0257,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9726,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.0158,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 799,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.32,
            "WHIP": 1.64,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 834.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5379,
            "WHIP": 1.531,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3931,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49655,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 137.1,
            "ER": 78.0,
            "R": 85.0,
            "H": 151.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 124.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 622.0,
            "Pitches": 2302.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8333,
            "H": 5.0333,
            "BB": 2.0667,
            "SO": 4.1333,
            "HR": 0.4667,
            "BF": 20.7333,
            "Pitches": 76.7333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1117,
            "WHIP": 1.551,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56796,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09951,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45146,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90291,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10194
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.292,
        "predicted_H": 5.038,
        "predicted_BB": 2.477,
        "predicted_SO": 5.066,
        "predicted_HR": 0.563,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.2601,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5517
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.292,
          "final": 2.9929,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.038,
          "final": 5.4328,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.477,
          "final": 1.8709,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.066,
          "final": 4.2182,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.563,
          "final": 1.1527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.2601,
          "final": 4.2601,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5517,
          "final": 1.5517,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.537931034482759,
        "WHIP": 1.5310344827586209,
        "K9": 9.310344827586208,
        "HR9": 0.9310344827586208,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8991018354591667,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "player_name": "David Peterson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5548,
        "runs_scored": 826.0,
        "runs_allowed": 682.0,
        "run_differential": 144.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.929,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.329,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
        "offense_index": 1.1866,
        "defense_index": 1.0207,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1604
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4645,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 796.0,
        "run_differential": -155.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1355,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1355,
        "offense_index": 0.9208,
        "defense_index": 0.8745,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.7,
          "run_differential": -46.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2226
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.383,
        "offense_edge": 0.1866,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0792,
        "defense_strength": 0.0207,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1255,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0191,
        "run_prevention": 0.9661,
        "strikeout": 1.0178
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656849",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656849",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 594.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.337,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.78,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3737,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3813,
            "command_and_miss": -0.315,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7214,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0542
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656849",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.88393641474616,
              "release_spin_rate": 2122.857318312684,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.88393641474616,
                "release_spin_rate": 2122.857318312684,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8839,
              "release_spin_rate": 2122.8573,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0542,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3868,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3026,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0257,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9726,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.0158,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "656849",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0257,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0257,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9726,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_CHC@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_CHC@CIN

home

Rhett Lowder

True

4.1

3.0

-4

6/6

1/3

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.79088471849866,
      "WHIP": 1.5201072386058982,
      "IP": 124.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.6159,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0523,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0856,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.351,
      "xwoba": 0.351,
      "barrel_percent": 9.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 556,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.8,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.4857,
            "WHIP": 1.6714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "H_per_IP": 1.28571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 909.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 90.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8471,
            "WHIP": 1.3567,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64968,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05096,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30573,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70701,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 124.1,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 138.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 98.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 563.0,
            "Pitches": 2157.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.963,
            "R": 3.0741,
            "H": 5.1111,
            "BB": 1.8889,
            "SO": 3.6296,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.8519,
            "Pitches": 79.8889
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7909,
            "WHIP": 1.5201,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64343,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10992,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41019,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14477
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.59,
        "predicted_H": 5.541,
        "predicted_BB": 1.773,
        "predicted_SO": 3.639,
        "predicted_HR": 0.875,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.6437,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5039
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.59,
          "final": 4.1766,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.541,
          "final": 4.9,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.773,
          "final": 1.4514,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.639,
          "final": 4.6212,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.875,
          "final": 1.343,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.6437,
          "final": 6.6437,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5039,
          "final": 1.5039,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.8471337579617835,
        "WHIP": 1.356687898089172,
        "K9": 6.3630573248407645,
        "HR9": 1.5477707006369426,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1545284772338205,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695076",
      "player_name": "Rhett Lowder",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4645,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 796.0,
        "run_differential": -155.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1355,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1355,
        "offense_index": 0.9208,
        "defense_index": 0.8745,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.7,
          "run_differential": -46.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2226
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5548,
        "runs_scored": 826.0,
        "runs_allowed": 682.0,
        "run_differential": 144.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.929,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.329,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
        "offense_index": 1.1866,
        "defense_index": 1.0207,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1604
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.383,
        "offense_edge": -0.0792,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1866,
        "defense_strength": -0.1255,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0207,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9735,
        "run_prevention": 1.0616,
        "strikeout": 0.9736
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695076",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695076",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 530.0,
            "k_percent": 17.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.351,
            "xwoba": 0.351,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.99,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.3002,
            "whiff_percent": 18.8,
            "swing_percent": 44.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8144,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6057,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1214,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0289
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695076",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33470320650996,
              "release_spin_rate": 2351.7989851419666,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.33470320650996,
                "release_spin_rate": 2351.7989851419666,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3347,
              "release_spin_rate": 2351.799,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0289,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2065,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.6159,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0523,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9383,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0856,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "695076",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0523,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0523,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0856,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9383,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_CHC@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_DET@CHW

away

Troy Melton

True

6.0

3.2

-7

4/4

4/3

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.5210843373493974,
      "WHIP": 1.1024096385542168,
      "IP": 110.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.825,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 2.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1244,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9894,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9817,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.9684,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 6.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 36,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 110.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.521,
      "season_WHIP": 1.102,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 441.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8101,
            "WHIP": 1.557,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64557,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21519,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34177,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64557,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18987
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 239.0,
            "Pitches": 899.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.9,
            "Pitches": 89.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2335,
            "WHIP": 1.3293,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35928,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98802,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34132,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71856,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10778
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 110.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 88.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 90.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 451.0,
            "Pitches": 1690.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6316,
            "R": 1.9474,
            "H": 4.6316,
            "BB": 1.7895,
            "SO": 4.7368,
            "HR": 0.6842,
            "BF": 23.7368,
            "Pitches": 88.9474
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5211,
            "WHIP": 1.1024,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28012,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30723,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81325,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11747
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.698,
        "predicted_H": 5.826,
        "predicted_BB": 1.928,
        "predicted_SO": 4.228,
        "predicted_HR": 0.827,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3219,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3804
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.698,
          "final": 3.2683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.826,
          "final": 5.4642,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.928,
          "final": 2.8355,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.228,
          "final": 4.1281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.827,
          "final": 0.4648,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3219,
          "final": 4.3219,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3804,
          "final": 1.3804,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.2335329341317367,
        "WHIP": 1.3293413173652695,
        "K9": 6.467065868263473,
        "HR9": 0.9700598802395209,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8598147200348428,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675512",
      "player_name": "Troy Melton",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
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        {
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.471,
        "runs_scored": 696.0,
        "runs_allowed": 621.0,
        "run_differential": 75.0,
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
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        "available": true,
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        "games": 155,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5097,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": 35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2258,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6774,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4516,
        "offense_index": 1.0415,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -6.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0009
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1037,
        "offense_edge": -0.0001,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0415,
        "defense_strength": 0.1209,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0088,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9894,
        "strikeout": 0.9998
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675512",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675512",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 433.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3672,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6738,
            "whiff_percent": 23.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2997,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1086,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3643,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0962
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675512",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.56968678699701,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.8555017876674,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.56968678699701,
                "release_spin_rate": 2197.8555017876674,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.5697,
              "release_spin_rate": 2197.8555,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0962,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.6875,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1244,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9894,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9817,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "675512",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9894,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 0.9894,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.9684,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9817,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_DET@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_DET@CHW

home

Davis Martin

True

5.0

4.1

-2

-3

7/3

0/2

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 141.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.218,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2638,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0224,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9737,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 1.0403,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 62,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 79.0,
            "Pitches": 277.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 1.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 15.8,
            "Pitches": 55.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8421,
            "WHIP": 1.2105,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89474,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.42105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21053
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 44.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 195.0,
            "Pitches": 731.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.5,
            "Pitches": 73.1
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3881,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64925,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07463,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31343,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.5597,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1791
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 141.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 140.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 115.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 592.0,
            "Pitches": 2254.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2963,
            "R": 2.4074,
            "H": 5.1852,
            "BB": 1.5926,
            "SO": 4.2593,
            "HR": 0.5185,
            "BF": 21.9259,
            "Pitches": 83.4815
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.43972,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99291,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30496,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8156,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09929
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.027,
        "predicted_H": 4.258,
        "predicted_BB": 1.404,
        "predicted_SO": 2.65,
        "predicted_HR": 0.753,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1902,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3007
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.027,
          "final": 2.4318,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.258,
          "final": 5.3987,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.404,
          "final": 0.8199,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.65,
          "final": 4.4596,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.753,
          "final": 0.4398,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1902,
          "final": 4.1902,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3007,
          "final": 1.3007,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 44.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 25,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.843283582089552,
        "WHIP": 1.3880597014925373,
        "K9": 5.037313432835822,
        "HR9": 1.6119402985074627,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1548796275332787,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663436",
      "player_name": "Davis Martin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5097,
        "runs_scored": 725.0,
        "runs_allowed": 690.0,
        "run_differential": 35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2258,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6774,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4516,
        "offense_index": 1.0415,
        "defense_index": 1.0088,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0009
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.471,
        "runs_scored": 696.0,
        "runs_allowed": 621.0,
        "run_differential": 75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4839,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4903,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0065,
        "offense_index": 0.9999,
        "defense_index": 1.1209,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1046
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1037,
        "offense_edge": 0.0415,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0001,
        "defense_strength": 0.0088,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1209,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9961,
        "run_prevention": 1.0043,
        "strikeout": 0.9969
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663436",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663436",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 555.0,
            "k_percent": 19.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.656,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8794,
            "whiff_percent": 23.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.334,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1771,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5214,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2857,
            "bb_edge": 0.45,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0093
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663436",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 59,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 59,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.01624850726196,
              "release_spin_rate": 2480.5211487507763,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 59,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.01624850726196,
                "release_spin_rate": 2480.5211487507763,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0162,
              "release_spin_rate": 2480.5211,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0093,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0661,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2638,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0224,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9737,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 1.0403,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663436",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0224,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0224,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0403,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9737,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_DET@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_KC@PIT

away

Michael Wacha

True

6.1

5.2

-2

4/4

3/4

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3392226148409896,
      "WHIP": 1.0971731448763251,
      "IP": 188.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.289,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0265,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9977,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9774,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 14,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 128.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.6,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1818,
            "WHIP": 0.8485,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24242,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60606,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24242,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87879,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18182
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 250.0,
            "Pitches": 951.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 95.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7,
            "WHIP": 0.9474,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74211,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20526,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75789,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18947
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 188.2,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 158.0,
            "BB": 49.0,
            "SO": 149.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 760.0,
            "Pitches": 2825.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.4667,
            "H": 5.2667,
            "BB": 1.6333,
            "SO": 4.9667,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 25.3333,
            "Pitches": 94.1667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3392,
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    },
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 2.8803,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 0.9935,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "HR": 12,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7902429425372064,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 3,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.4323,
        "runs_scored": 653.0,
        "runs_allowed": 754.0,
        "run_differential": -101.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6516,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2129,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8645,
        "offense_index": 0.9369,
        "defense_index": 0.9243,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2072
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5032,
        "runs_scored": 744.0,
        "runs_allowed": 716.0,
        "run_differential": 28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1806,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6194,
        "offense_index": 1.0675,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0598
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.267,
        "offense_edge": -0.0631,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0675,
        "defense_strength": -0.0757,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0266,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9843,
        "run_prevention": 1.0317,
        "strikeout": 0.9866
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608379",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608379",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 708.0,
            "k_percent": 19.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.2235,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5071,
            "whiff_percent": 21.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1813,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1843,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1929,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4714,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1599
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608379",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.9953545090726,
              "release_spin_rate": 1981.837302341622,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.9953545090726,
                "release_spin_rate": 1981.837302341622,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9954,
              "release_spin_rate": 1981.8373,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1599,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.1422,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0265,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9977,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9774,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "608379",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9977,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9977,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
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          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9774,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9674,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_KC@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_KC@PIT

home

Lake Bachar

True

5.0

1.0

-12

1/3

5/0

8/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.951417004048583,
      "WHIP": 1.0445344129554657,
      "IP": 82.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 49,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.233,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.067,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2923,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9752,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9897,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6055,
            "whiff_percent": 29.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3698,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3729,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5643,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7,
            "bb_edge": -0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0043
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669199",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 27,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 27,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.77481249512137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801239344625,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 27,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.77481249512137,
                "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801239344625,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7748,
              "release_spin_rate": 2697.8801,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0043,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0305,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2923,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9752,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
          "walk_factor": 1.026,
          "homer_factor": 0.9774,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669199",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9752,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9752,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9774,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0451,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_KC@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_MIA@SD

away

Sandy Alcantara

True

5.1

6.0

-2

7/8

2/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8446601941747574,
      "WHIP": 1.2281553398058251,
      "IP": 206.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.406,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0208,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 0.959,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.7,
      "woba": 0.305,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 5.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 37,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 405.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.6567,
            "WHIP": 1.6567,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.85075,
            "H_per_IP": 1.25373,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40299,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.53731,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22388
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 917.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 91.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 1.2831,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93976,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34337,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61446,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 206.0,
            "ER": 88.0,
            "R": 93.0,
            "H": 195.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 149.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 861.0,
            "Pitches": 3174.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 2.8182,
            "H": 5.9091,
            "BB": 1.7576,
            "SO": 4.5152,
            "HR": 0.697,
            "BF": 26.0909,
            "Pitches": 96.1818
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8447,
            "WHIP": 1.2282,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42718,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9466,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28155,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7233,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11165
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.213,
        "predicted_H": 5.672,
        "predicted_BB": 1.911,
        "predicted_SO": 3.424,
        "predicted_HR": 0.846,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4508,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4294
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4056,
      "form_weight": 0.5944,
      "form_reliability": 0.8684,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 33.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8684,
        "prior_weight": 0.1316
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.213,
          "final": 4.3434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.672,
          "final": 6.2106,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.911,
          "final": 1.9471,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.424,
          "final": 2.8464,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.846,
          "final": 0.5029,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4508,
          "final": 5.4508,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4294,
          "final": 1.4294,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.9036144578313254,
        "WHIP": 1.2831325301204821,
        "K9": 5.530120481927711,
        "HR9": 0.9759036144578314,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.934043671769927,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 33.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8684,
          "prior_weight": 0.1316
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.15,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.9,
              "percent_delta": -0.15,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.15,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.9,
            "percent_delta": -0.15,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4903,
        "runs_scored": 689.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0065,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4452,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4387,
        "offense_index": 0.9901,
        "defense_index": 1.0115,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0424
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5548,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 646.0,
        "run_differential": 37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2387,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4065,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1677,
        "offense_index": 0.9815,
        "defense_index": 1.0772,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 27.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2158
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2582,
        "offense_edge": -0.0099,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0185,
        "defense_strength": 0.0115,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0772,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9908,
        "run_prevention": 1.0088,
        "strikeout": 0.9937
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "645261",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "645261",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 853.0,
            "k_percent": 17.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.7,
            "woba": 0.305,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.9205,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7234,
            "whiff_percent": 21.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1955,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3821,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1929,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1334
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "645261",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.2337746645985,
              "release_spin_rate": 2238.9156209064117,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.2337746645985,
                "release_spin_rate": 2238.9156209064117,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.2338,
              "release_spin_rate": 2238.9156,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1334,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.9531,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0208,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9982,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9503,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 0.959,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "645261",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.959,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9503,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_MIA@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_MIA@SD

home

Walker Buehler

True

4.2

6.2

4/3

0/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.583720930232558,
      "WHIP": 1.3674418604651162,
      "IP": 143.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.778,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1676,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0142,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9583,
      "walk_factor": 0.996,
      "homer_factor": 1.0254,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.9,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 19.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 209,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 385.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 77.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.2609,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21739,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 197.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 19.7,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3288,
            "WHIP": 1.2534,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36986,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96575,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28767,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16438
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.1,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 122.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 609.0,
            "Pitches": 2446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4333,
            "R": 2.4667,
            "H": 4.7333,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0667,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.3,
            "Pitches": 81.5333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5837,
            "WHIP": 1.3674,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5093,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9907,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37674,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85116,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.012,
        "predicted_H": 4.778,
        "predicted_BB": 1.375,
        "predicted_SO": 3.888,
        "predicted_HR": 0.931,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.799,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2907
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.012,
          "final": 2.0071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.778,
          "final": 4.4587,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.375,
          "final": 0.8107,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.888,
          "final": 4.7547,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.931,
          "final": 0.9593,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.799,
          "final": 3.799,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2907,
          "final": 1.2907,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.3287671232876708,
        "WHIP": 1.2534246575342465,
        "K9": 7.027397260273972,
        "HR9": 1.4794520547945205,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8686306498191099,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "621111",
      "player_name": "Walker Buehler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5548,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 646.0,
        "run_differential": 37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2387,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4065,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1677,
        "offense_index": 0.9815,
        "defense_index": 1.0772,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 27.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2158
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4903,
        "runs_scored": 689.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0065,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4452,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4387,
        "offense_index": 0.9901,
        "defense_index": 1.0115,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0424
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2582,
        "offense_edge": -0.0185,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0099,
        "defense_strength": 0.0772,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0115,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.013,
        "run_prevention": 0.9778,
        "strikeout": 1.0085
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "621111",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "621111",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 583.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.9,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8929,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0584,
            "whiff_percent": 19.7,
            "swing_percent": 45.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1926,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3836,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1786,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0005
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "621111",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.84218390169383,
              "release_spin_rate": 2199.080983688629,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.84218390169383,
                "release_spin_rate": 2199.080983688629,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8422,
              "release_spin_rate": 2199.081,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0005,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0035,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1676,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0142,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9583,
          "walk_factor": 0.996,
          "homer_factor": 1.0254,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "621111",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0142,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0142,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0254,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9583,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_MIA@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_MIL@BAL

away

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

3.0

-9

-1

1/1

3/0

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.8937875751503004,
      "WHIP": 0.8116232464929859,
      "IP": 166.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.94,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.3866,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8821,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.8366,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 38.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.219,
      "xwoba": 0.224,
      "barrel_percent": 3.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 37.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 5,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 166.1,
      "season_ERA": 1.894,
      "season_WHIP": 0.812,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 452.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6341,
            "WHIP": 1.1341,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29268,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40244,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20732,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03659
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 76.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 875.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.5,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 87.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4398,
            "WHIP": 0.9217,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27108,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27108,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.37349,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09036
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 166.1,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 93.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 243.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 636.0,
            "Pitches": 2535.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.25,
            "R": 1.5357,
            "H": 3.3214,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 8.6786,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.7143,
            "Pitches": 90.5357
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8938,
            "WHIP": 0.8116,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21042,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55912,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25251,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.46092,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08417
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.724,
        "predicted_H": 4.044,
        "predicted_BB": 1.885,
        "predicted_SO": 7.106,
        "predicted_HR": 0.439,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7476,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0501
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.724,
          "final": 1.4243,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.044,
          "final": 2.7838,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.885,
          "final": 2.3466,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 7.106,
          "final": 7.4761,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.439,
          "final": 0.2573,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7476,
          "final": 2.7476,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0501,
          "final": 1.0501,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 76,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.4397590361445785,
        "WHIP": 0.9216867469879518,
        "K9": 12.361445783132531,
        "HR9": 0.8132530120481929,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7603237922518546,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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        {
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      ],
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.6258,
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        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2839,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
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          "run_differential": 30.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4839,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0127
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 38.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.219,
            "xwoba": 0.224,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.5024,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9814,
            "whiff_percent": 37.3,
            "swing_percent": 51.3
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.6344,
            "command_and_miss": 1.7814,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.5,
            "barrel_edge": 0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7,
            "whiff_edge": 1.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2568.640260744372,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 97.5350871630707,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 97.5351,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 1.3866,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "694819",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.8821,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 1.16,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_MIL@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_MIL@BAL

home

Brandon Young

True

5.2

6.0

-1

6/3

1/3

7/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
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    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "player_id": "687064",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "H": 5.6,
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            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
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            "Pitches": 93.0
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            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 27.0,
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            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
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            "Pitches": 937.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 1.2,
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            "Pitches": 93.7
          },
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            "H_per_IP": 1.04908,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.80982,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22086
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 59.0,
            "R": 68.0,
            "H": 145.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 629.0,
            "Pitches": 2364.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "H": 5.5769,
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            "Pitches": 90.9231
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.81007,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14416
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.595,
        "predicted_H": 5.629,
        "predicted_BB": 2.358,
        "predicted_SO": 4.572,
        "predicted_HR": 1.08,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1936,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4341
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "final": 2.7644,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 5.7841,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.7902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.572,
          "final": 5.5873,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.08,
          "final": 0.6284,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1936,
          "final": 4.1936,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4341,
          "final": 1.4341,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 4.306748466257669,
        "WHIP": 1.4723926380368098,
        "K9": 7.288343558282208,
        "HR9": 1.987730061349693,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9841277504157987,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "player_name": "Brandon Young",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4839,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 721.0,
        "run_differential": -28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1806,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.471,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6516,
        "offense_index": 0.9934,
        "defense_index": 0.9675,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0358
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 97,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.6258,
        "runs_scored": 799.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 199.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2839,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1548,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.871,
        "offense_index": 1.1454,
        "defense_index": 1.1627,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3688
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4046,
        "offense_edge": -0.0066,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1454,
        "defense_strength": -0.0325,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1627,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.977,
        "run_prevention": 1.0467,
        "strikeout": 0.9762
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687064",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687064",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 600.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.328,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6815,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1795,
            "whiff_percent": 23.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2153,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2707,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3214,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2429,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.07
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687064",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.60132582678195,
              "release_spin_rate": 2064.261218713588,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.60132582678195,
                "release_spin_rate": 2064.261218713588,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6013,
              "release_spin_rate": 2064.2612,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.07,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4999,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1823,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0155,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.972,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0088,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "687064",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0155,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0155,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_MIL@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_MIN@LAA

away

Dean Kremer

True

4.2

6.0

-2

2/1

2/3

3/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.353448275862069,
      "WHIP": 1.2413793103448276,
      "IP": 77.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 15,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.156,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1092,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0093,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0257,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.0426,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 538,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 15.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.75,
        "prior_weight": 0.25
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 433.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.25,
            "WHIP": 1.375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95833,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 867.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 86.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.961,
            "WHIP": 1.3052,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66234,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93506,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37013,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87662,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 15,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 77.1,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 74.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 319.0,
            "Pitches": 1296.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0667,
            "R": 3.2667,
            "H": 4.6667,
            "BB": 1.7333,
            "SO": 4.9333,
            "HR": 1.1333,
            "BF": 21.2667,
            "Pitches": 86.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3534,
            "WHIP": 1.2414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59483,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90517,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33621,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9569,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21983
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.872,
        "predicted_H": 4.644,
        "predicted_BB": 1.868,
        "predicted_SO": 4.412,
        "predicted_HR": 0.819,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.288,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3323
      }
    },
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      },
      {
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
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          },
          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4645,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": -72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4645,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5419,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0065,
        "offense_index": 1.0117,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1571
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3871,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 704.0,
        "run_differential": -79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5097,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0323,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5419,
        "offense_index": 0.8981,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1584
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0013,
        "offense_edge": 0.0117,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1019,
        "defense_strength": -0.1032,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0115,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.001,
        "run_prevention": 0.994,
        "strikeout": 1.0082
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "665152",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665152",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 300.0,
            "k_percent": 23.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.6201,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6768,
            "whiff_percent": 28.3,
            "swing_percent": 45.8
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3489,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2871,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4357,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4714,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1771
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "665152",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.68922116656958,
              "release_spin_rate": 2101.293582016223,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.68922116656958,
                "release_spin_rate": 2101.293582016223,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.6892,
              "release_spin_rate": 2101.2936,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1771,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.2647,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1092,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0093,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0257,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 1.0426,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "665152",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0093,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0093,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0426,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0257,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_MIN@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_MIN@LAA

home

Ryan Johnson

True

5.2

4.2

-3

2/7

1/0

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3394833948339484,
      "IP": 90.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.02,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.333,
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      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 380,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8,
            "WHIP": 0.9333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2,
            "H_per_IP": 0.6,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 862.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
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            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9808,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44231,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82692,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44231,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 90.1,
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            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 82.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 70.0,
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            "BF": 388.0,
            "Pitches": 1545.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.45,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.95,
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            "BF": 19.4,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8819,
            "WHIP": 1.3395,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54244,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90775,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43173,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77491,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19926
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.129,
        "predicted_H": 4.367,
        "predicted_BB": 2.147,
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        "predicted_HR": 0.713,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4624,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1772
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.129,
          "final": 1.6384,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.367,
          "final": 3.3385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.147,
          "final": 1.6486,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.44,
          "final": 4.6833,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.713,
          "final": 0.4032,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4624,
          "final": 3.4624,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1772,
          "final": 1.1772,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.980769230769231,
        "WHIP": 1.2692307692307692,
        "K9": 6.923076923076923,
        "HR9": 1.3846153846153846,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9423760397031984,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696270",
      "player_name": "Ryan Johnson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3871,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 704.0,
        "run_differential": -79.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5097,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0323,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5419,
        "offense_index": 0.8981,
        "defense_index": 0.9885,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1584
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4645,
        "runs_scored": 704.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": -72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4645,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5419,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0065,
        "offense_index": 1.0117,
        "defense_index": 0.8968,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -24.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1571
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0013,
        "offense_edge": -0.1019,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0117,
        "defense_strength": -0.0115,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1032,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9991,
        "run_prevention": 1.0031,
        "strikeout": 0.999
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696270",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696270",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 362.0,
            "k_percent": 18.0,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.333,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7986,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7435,
            "whiff_percent": 23.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4937,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3971,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2571,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1548
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696270",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.08612475150535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542445027313,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.08612475150535,
                "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542445027313,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0861,
              "release_spin_rate": 2294.5542,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1548,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1059,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4207,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0358,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 1.0744,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "696270",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0358,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0358,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0744,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_MIN@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_NYY@ARI

away

Will Warren

True

5.1

4.1

-3

4/6

4/3

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.891891891891892,
      "WHIP": 1.3581081081081081,
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "701542",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701542",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 81,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_NYY@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_NYY@ARI

home

Corbin Burnes

True

4.0

2.2

-4

3/5

5/2

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.1739130434782608,
      "IP": 7.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.833,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0391,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9992,
      "walk_factor": 0.9748,
      "homer_factor": 1.0361,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.356,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 12.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 553,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2857,
        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669203",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 32.0,
            "Pitches": 132.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 66.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8696,
            "WHIP": 1.1739,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 32.0,
            "Pitches": 132.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 66.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8696,
            "WHIP": 1.1739,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26087,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.2,
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            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 32.0,
            "Pitches": 132.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.78261,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.466,
        "predicted_H": 4.307,
        "predicted_BB": 1.535,
        "predicted_SO": 3.99,
        "predicted_HR": 0.812,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9579,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3051
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.466,
          "final": 2.1623,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.99,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.812,
          "final": 0.2827,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3051,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 5,
        "H": 7,
        "BB": 2,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 5.869565217391304,
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        "K9": 7.0434782608695645,
        "HR9": 2.3478260869565215,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0386305512614782,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2857,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669203",
      "player_name": "Corbin Burnes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "669203",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
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            "pitcher_id": "669203",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 57,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 57,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.8280701754386,
              "release_spin_rate": 2541.40350877193,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 57,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.8280701754386,
                "release_spin_rate": 2541.40350877193,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8281,
              "release_spin_rate": 2541.4035,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0573,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4092,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0391,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9992,
          "walk_factor": 0.9748,
          "homer_factor": 1.0361,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.058,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669203",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0015,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0015,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9887,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0162,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_NYY@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_OAK@CLE

away

Jack Perkins

True

4.2

6.0

-4

8/5

0/0

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.136363636363637,
      "WHIP": 1.481818181818182,
      "IP": 110.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 35,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.689,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0472,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.996,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0297,
      "walk_factor": 1.012,
      "homer_factor": 1.0285,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.6,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.353,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
      "whiff_percent": 26.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 846,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 35.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.875,
        "prior_weight": 0.125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 35,
      "reference_playing_time": 8.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 425.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2838,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60811,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17568,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 805.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 80.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3239,
            "WHIP": 1.5634,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59155,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05634,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50704,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07746,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19014
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 35,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 110.0,
            "ER": 75.0,
            "R": 82.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 127.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 497.0,
            "Pitches": 1927.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.1429,
            "R": 2.3429,
            "H": 3.2857,
            "BB": 1.3714,
            "SO": 3.6286,
            "HR": 0.5714,
            "BF": 14.2,
            "Pitches": 55.0571
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1364,
            "WHIP": 1.4818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04545,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18182
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.501,
        "predicted_H": 4.826,
        "predicted_BB": 2.55,
        "predicted_SO": 5.473,
        "predicted_HR": 0.85,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5715,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4984
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4028,
      "form_weight": 0.5972,
      "form_reliability": 0.875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 35.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.875,
        "prior_weight": 0.125
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.501,
          "final": 3.9104,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.826,
          "final": 6.1045,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.55,
          "final": 1.5228,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.473,
          "final": 4.8797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.85,
          "final": 0.9104,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5715,
          "final": 4.5715,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4984,
          "final": 1.4984,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.323943661971832,
        "WHIP": 1.563380281690141,
        "K9": 9.69718309859155,
        "HR9": 1.711267605633803,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1008369010249754,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 8.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 35.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.875,
          "prior_weight": 0.125
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 8.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -3.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.475,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -3.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.475,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -3.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.475,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -3.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.475,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 94,
        "win_pct": 0.3935,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 892.0,
        "run_differential": -222.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4323,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3226,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7548,
        "offense_index": 0.9625,
        "defense_index": 0.7804,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -35.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3359
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5161,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0065,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1806,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1742,
        "offense_index": 0.9309,
        "defense_index": 1.0759,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0845
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4204,
        "offense_edge": -0.0375,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0691,
        "defense_strength": -0.2196,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0759,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9794,
        "run_prevention": 1.0319,
        "strikeout": 0.9929
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 462.0,
            "k_percent": 25.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.353,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.7611,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5792,
            "whiff_percent": 26.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2721,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2814,
            "regression_edge": 1.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0214,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2286,
            "bb_edge": -0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.08
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.28030678673174,
              "release_spin_rate": 2236.0689533094624,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.28030678673174,
                "release_spin_rate": 2236.0689533094624,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.2803,
              "release_spin_rate": 2236.069,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.08,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5717,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0472,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.996,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0297,
          "walk_factor": 1.012,
          "homer_factor": 1.0285,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.042,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678022",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0285,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0297,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_OAK@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_OAK@CLE

home

Gavin Williams

True

5.1

7.0

-3

4/3

0/1

7/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.7758620689655173,
      "WHIP": 1.103448275862069,
      "IP": 174.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2513,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9786,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1091,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.1137,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.293,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 11.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.8,
      "whiff_percent": 32.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 46,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.96,
            "WHIP": 1.24,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 90.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 947.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 94.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2927,
            "WHIP": 1.0061,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36585,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65854,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34756,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.64634,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12805
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 174.0,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 235.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 705.0,
            "Pitches": 2828.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4333,
            "R": 2.5667,
            "H": 4.5333,
            "BB": 1.8667,
            "SO": 7.8333,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 94.2667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7759,
            "WHIP": 1.1034,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41954,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78161,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32184,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35057,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.233,
        "predicted_H": 4.106,
        "predicted_BB": 2.014,
        "predicted_SO": 8.173,
        "predicted_HR": 0.698,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8188,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1632
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.233,
          "final": 2.5478,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.106,
          "final": 4.0625,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.014,
          "final": 1.1875,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 8.173,
          "final": 6.0501,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.698,
          "final": 0.4116,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8188,
          "final": 3.8188,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1632,
          "final": 1.1632,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 90,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.292682926829268,
        "WHIP": 1.0060975609756098,
        "K9": 14.817073170731707,
        "HR9": 1.1524390243902438,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8583880003035737,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "668909",
      "player_name": "Gavin Williams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 5.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5161,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0065,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1806,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1742,
        "offense_index": 0.9309,
        "defense_index": 1.0759,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 17.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0845
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 94,
        "win_pct": 0.3935,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 892.0,
        "run_differential": -222.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4323,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3226,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7548,
        "offense_index": 0.9625,
        "defense_index": 0.7804,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -35.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3359
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4204,
        "offense_edge": -0.0691,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0375,
        "defense_strength": 0.0759,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2196,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0206,
        "run_prevention": 0.9654,
        "strikeout": 1.0156
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "668909",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "668909",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 676.0,
            "k_percent": 33.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9895,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.961,
            "whiff_percent": 32.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0705,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1764,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3357,
            "barrel_edge": -0.9111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.2714,
            "whiff_edge": 1.1143,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.062
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "668909",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.95843064344741,
              "release_spin_rate": 2289.7118231943073,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.95843064344741,
                "release_spin_rate": 2289.7118231943073,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.9584,
              "release_spin_rate": 2289.7118,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.062,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.443,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2513,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9786,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1091,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.1137,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "668909",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9786,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9786,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1137,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 1.1091,
            "adjusted": 10
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_OAK@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_PHI@NYM

away

Cristopher Sánchez

True

6.1

-2

3/6

5/0

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.927710843373494,
      "WHIP": 1.223752151462995,
      "IP": 193.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.247,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4413,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9625,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0651,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 0.9992,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.7,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.3,
      "xwoba": 0.286,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
      "whiff_percent": 31.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 132.0,
            "Pitches": 481.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 26.4,
            "Pitches": 96.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0625,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5625,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 255.0,
            "Pitches": 958.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.5,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.541,
            "WHIP": 1.2951,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39344,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98361,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31148,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04918,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 193.2,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 69.0,
            "H": 193.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 215.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 805.0,
            "Pitches": 2960.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.0323,
            "R": 2.2258,
            "H": 6.2258,
            "BB": 1.4194,
            "SO": 6.9355,
            "HR": 0.5484,
            "BF": 25.9677,
            "Pitches": 95.4839
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9277,
            "WHIP": 1.2238,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99656,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22719,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11015,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08778
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.889,
        "predicted_H": 6.334,
        "predicted_BB": 1.607,
        "predicted_SO": 6.085,
        "predicted_HR": 0.68,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1711,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.274
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
      "form_weight": 0.5913,
      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.889,
          "final": 2.9344,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.334,
          "final": 4.9714,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.607,
          "final": 2.9937,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 6.085,
          "final": 4.4155,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.68,
          "final": 0.4021,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1711,
          "final": 4.1711,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.274,
          "final": 1.274,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.540983606557377,
        "WHIP": 1.2950819672131149,
        "K9": 9.442622950819672,
        "HR9": 0.7377049180327869,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8935464369289235,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
          "prior_weight": 0.1389
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 5,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "650911",
      "player_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 2.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "percent_delta": 2.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5484,
        "runs_scored": 690.0,
        "runs_allowed": 666.0,
        "run_differential": 24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1548,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4516,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2968,
        "offense_index": 0.99,
        "defense_index": 1.0465,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0251
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4581,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": -36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2323,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2968,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.529,
        "offense_index": 0.9556,
        "defense_index": 0.9928,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.099
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1241,
        "offense_edge": -0.01,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0444,
        "defense_strength": 0.0465,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0072,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0081,
        "run_prevention": 0.982,
        "strikeout": 1.0073
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650911",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650911",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 773.0,
            "k_percent": 26.7,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.3,
            "xwoba": 0.286,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7846,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.381,
            "whiff_percent": 31.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.333,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8171,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7357,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9571,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0295
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650911",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.3783652742236,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207290628663,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.3783652742236,
                "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207290628663,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3784,
              "release_spin_rate": 2082.1207,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0295,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.211,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4413,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9625,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0651,
          "walk_factor": 0.928,
          "homer_factor": 0.9992,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "650911",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9625,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9625,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9992,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0651,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 30,
      "Pitches": 121,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_PHI@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_PHI@NYM

home

Jonah Tong

True

5.1

4.2

-2

6/5

2/4

11/5

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4285714285714284,
      "WHIP": 1.1904761904761905,
      "IP": 21.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.5,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1904,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9838,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0075,
      "walk_factor": 1.0072,
      "homer_factor": 0.9632,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.274,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 420,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "804636",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 357.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 71.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4286,
            "WHIP": 1.1905,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7619,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95238,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09524
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 357.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 18.2,
            "Pitches": 71.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4286,
            "WHIP": 1.1905,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7619,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95238,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09524
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
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            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 91.0,
            "Pitches": 357.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
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            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.2,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4286,
            "WHIP": 1.1905,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7619,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95238,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09524
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.876,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.08,
          "final": 2.0351,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.069,
          "final": 5.1528,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.876,
          "final": 1.9456,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 11.0,
          "form": 4.404,
          "final": 8.106,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.571,
          "final": 0.2505,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.011,
          "final": 4.011,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.274,
          "final": 1.274,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 21.0,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 16,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 20,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.4285714285714284,
        "WHIP": 1.1904761904761905,
        "K9": 8.571428571428571,
        "HR9": 0.8571428571428571,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9155367900942294,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 11.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "804636",
      "player_name": "Jonah Tong",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 11.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.02,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 11.0,
              "after": 11.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 0.02,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 11.0,
            "after": 11.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4581,
        "runs_scored": 666.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": -36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2323,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2968,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.529,
        "offense_index": 0.9556,
        "defense_index": 0.9928,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.099
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5484,
        "runs_scored": 690.0,
        "runs_allowed": 666.0,
        "run_differential": 24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1548,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4516,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2968,
        "offense_index": 0.99,
        "defense_index": 1.0465,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0251
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1241,
        "offense_edge": -0.0444,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.01,
        "defense_strength": -0.0072,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0465,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9952,
        "run_prevention": 1.0053,
        "strikeout": 0.9971
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "804636",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "804636",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 67.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.274,
            "xwoba": 0.274,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.5606,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4341,
            "whiff_percent": 27.9,
            "swing_percent": 51.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.695,
            "command_and_miss": 0.105,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0786,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.9714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0829
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "804636",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 68,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 68,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.33206041693349,
              "release_spin_rate": 2105.603159331649,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 68,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.33206041693349,
                "release_spin_rate": 2105.603159331649,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.3321,
              "release_spin_rate": 2105.6032,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0829,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5924,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1904,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9838,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0075,
          "walk_factor": 1.0072,
          "homer_factor": 0.9632,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "804636",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9927,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0032,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9834,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 11,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_PHI@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_SEA@COL

away

Kade Anderson

True

5.0

7.0

-2

7/3

2/0

4/7

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.328947368421053,
      "WHIP": 1.4210526315789473,
      "IP": 25.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0556,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0047,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9871,
      "walk_factor": 0.9856,
      "homer_factor": 1.0107,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.345,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 549,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 398.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3289,
            "WHIP": 1.4211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59211,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82895,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 398.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3289,
            "WHIP": 1.4211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59211,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82895,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
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            "IP": 25.1,
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            "H": 28.0,
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            "SO": 21.0,
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            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 398.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
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            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3289,
            "WHIP": 1.4211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59211,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82895,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.728,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.9611,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3893
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.756,
          "final": 2.3317,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.218,
          "final": 6.2181,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.728,
          "final": 1.8807,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.41,
          "final": 4.1799,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.769,
          "final": 0.3374,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9611,
          "final": 4.9611,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3893,
          "final": 1.3893,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 25.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 28,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 5.328947368421053,
        "WHIP": 1.4210526315789473,
        "K9": 7.460526315789474,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789473,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0819067907393127,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "807739",
      "player_name": "Kade Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4645,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3677,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0774,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4452,
        "offense_index": 0.9086,
        "defense_index": 1.0095,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 19.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0752
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 57,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3677,
        "runs_scored": 726.0,
        "runs_allowed": 902.0,
        "run_differential": -176.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1355,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6839,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8194,
        "offense_index": 1.0438,
        "defense_index": 0.7711,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3566
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2814,
        "offense_edge": -0.0914,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0438,
        "defense_strength": 0.0095,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2289,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0098,
        "run_prevention": 0.992,
        "strikeout": 1.0049
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "807739",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "807739",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 87.0,
            "k_percent": 19.6,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.345,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6191,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8233,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 53.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2592,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2043,
            "regression_edge": 0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.15,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0663
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "807739",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.66636505704015,
              "release_spin_rate": 2106.3372663927266,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.66636505704015,
                "release_spin_rate": 2106.3372663927266,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6664,
              "release_spin_rate": 2106.3373,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0663,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4738,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0556,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0047,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9871,
          "walk_factor": 0.9856,
          "homer_factor": 1.0107,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "807739",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0021,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0021,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9935,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0048,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9942,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_SEA@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_SEA@COL

home

Tomoyuki Sugano

True

4.2

5.0

-1

5/1

2/2

1/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.488317757009346,
      "WHIP": 1.3598130841121496,
      "IP": 142.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.284,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.0102,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0859,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9189,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 1.1775,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.0,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.364,
      "xwoba": 0.384,
      "barrel_percent": 12.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.2,
      "whiff_percent": 18.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 139,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608372",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.29167,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.26923,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.67308,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.1215,
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 7.1969,
          "final": 7.1969,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.575,
          "final": 1.575,
          "source": "form_only"
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 39,
        "H": 66,
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        "HR": 13,
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        "K9": 6.0576923076923075,
        "HR9": 2.25,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.2592029627801213,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 155,
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        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3677,
        "runs_scored": 726.0,
        "runs_allowed": 902.0,
        "run_differential": -176.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1355,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6839,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8194,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.2,
          "run_differential": -29.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3566
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 155,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4645,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3677,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0774,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4452,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": 19.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0752
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2814,
        "offense_edge": 0.0438,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0914,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9855,
        "run_prevention": 1.0223,
        "strikeout": 0.9989
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 579.0,
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            "woba": 0.364,
            "xwoba": 0.384,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 12.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.8337,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.3904,
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            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.0643,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8857,
            "bb_edge": 0.9,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0862
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.31257099697747,
              "release_spin_rate": 2299.981861685681,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.31257099697747,
                "release_spin_rate": 2299.981861685681,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3126,
              "release_spin_rate": 2299.9819,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0862,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.6154,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -1.0102,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0859,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0859,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
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            "adjusted": 8
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1775,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9189,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_SEA@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_SF@LAD

away

Matt Wilkinson

True

4.1

5.0

-4

4/3

4/0

5/6

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.576271186440677,
      "WHIP": 1.11864406779661,
      "IP": 19.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1602,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0136,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9604,
      "walk_factor": 0.9622,
      "homer_factor": 1.0355,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.8,
      "bb_percent": 4.9,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 49.2,
      "whiff_percent": 16.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 647,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 74.0,
            "Pitches": 281.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 14.8,
            "Pitches": 56.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0943,
            "WHIP": 1.1887,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56604,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96226,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22642,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67925,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22642
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 81.0,
            "Pitches": 306.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.6667,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 13.5,
            "Pitches": 51.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5763,
            "WHIP": 1.1186,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50847,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91525,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20339,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61017,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20339
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.2,
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            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 81.0,
            "Pitches": 306.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 0.6667,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 13.5,
            "Pitches": 51.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5763,
            "WHIP": 1.1186,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50847,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91525,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20339,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61017,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20339
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.117,
        "predicted_H": 3.818,
        "predicted_BB": 1.154,
        "predicted_SO": 3.118,
        "predicted_HR": 0.749,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8286,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2603
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.117,
          "final": 3.6797,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.818,
          "final": 3.9166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.154,
          "final": 2.6966,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.118,
          "final": 4.1381,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.749,
          "final": 0.343,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8286,
          "final": 4.8286,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2603,
          "final": 1.2603,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 19.2,
        "ER": 10,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.576271186440677,
        "WHIP": 1.11864406779661,
        "K9": 5.491525423728813,
        "HR9": 1.830508474576271,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0036428122954868,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683363",
      "player_name": "Matt Wilkinson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 155,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.4129,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": -82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.529,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2258,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7548,
        "offense_index": 0.9413,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -8.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.6129,
        "runs_scored": 777.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 191.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2323,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0129,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7806,
        "offense_index": 1.1166,
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        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 35.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3169
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4907,
        "offense_edge": -0.0587,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1166,
        "defense_strength": -0.0558,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.974,
        "run_prevention": 1.0488,
        "strikeout": 0.976
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683363",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 14.8,
            "bb_percent": 4.9,
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            "xwoba": 0.318,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 49.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.211,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7802,
            "whiff_percent": 16.8,
            "swing_percent": 44.8
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          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
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            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.6629,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1786,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -1.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -1.1714,
            "bb_edge": 1.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.137
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683363",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 53,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 53,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.40505179838082,
              "release_spin_rate": 1996.1529621776074,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4051,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.137,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9784,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1602,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0136,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9604,
          "walk_factor": 0.9622,
          "homer_factor": 1.0355,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "683363",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0061,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0061,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.983,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9822,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_SF@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_SF@LAD

home

Jack Dreyer

True

5.0

1.0

-12

-1

5/1

2/1

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.185393258426966,
      "WHIP": 1.1292134831460674,
      "IP": 59.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 63,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3476,
      "sample_weight": 0.912,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9705,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0474,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0097,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.1,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.277,
      "xwoba": 0.288,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
      "whiff_percent": 28.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 158,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 59.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.185,
      "season_WHIP": 1.129,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.059,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7069,
        "prior_weight": 0.2931
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676263",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 63,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 0.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 4.6,
            "Pitches": 16.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.6,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.4,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 149.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.2,
            "ER": 0.4,
            "R": 0.4,
            "H": 0.9,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 0.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 3.8,
            "Pitches": 14.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.75,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 63,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 242.0,
            "Pitches": 963.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.3333,
            "R": 0.3333,
            "H": 0.7143,
            "BB": 0.3492,
            "SO": 1.0794,
            "HR": 0.1111,
            "BF": 3.8413,
            "Pitches": 15.2857
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1854,
            "WHIP": 1.1292,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35393,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75843,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14607,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11798
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.175,
        "predicted_H": 2.411,
        "predicted_BB": 1.086,
        "predicted_SO": 1.711,
        "predicted_HR": 0.138,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6278,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5304
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4738,
      "form_weight": 0.5262,
      "form_reliability": 0.7069,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.059,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7069,
        "prior_weight": 0.2931
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.175,
          "final": 1.5659,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.411,
          "final": 3.6378,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.086,
          "final": 1.5191,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.711,
          "final": 2.7956,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.138,
          "final": 0.5464,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6278,
          "final": 4.6278,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5304,
          "final": 1.5304,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.0,
        "ER": 4,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 6,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 4.500000000000001,
        "WHIP": 1.8750000000000002,
        "K9": 6.750000000000001,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0042122234630113,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 12.059,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7069,
          "prior_weight": 0.2931
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676263",
      "player_name": "Jack Dreyer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1176,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1177,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 95,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6129,
        "runs_scored": 777.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 191.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2323,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0129,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7806,
        "offense_index": 1.1166,
        "defense_index": 1.1875,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 35.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3169
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.4129,
        "runs_scored": 655.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": -82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.529,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2258,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7548,
        "offense_index": 0.9413,
        "defense_index": 0.9442,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1738
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4907,
        "offense_edge": 0.1166,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0587,
        "defense_strength": 0.1875,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0558,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0276,
        "run_prevention": 0.9473,
        "strikeout": 1.0194
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676263",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676263",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 228.0,
            "k_percent": 28.1,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.277,
            "xwoba": 0.288,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 24.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3179,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9126,
            "whiff_percent": 28.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4835,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5421,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6786,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0108
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676263",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 15,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 15,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04440654772824,
              "release_spin_rate": 2459.534983303308,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 15,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04440654772824,
                "release_spin_rate": 2459.534983303308,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0444,
              "release_spin_rate": 2459.535,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0108,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0774,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3476,
          "sample_weight": 0.912,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9705,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0474,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0097,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676263",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0088,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 14.0,
            "factor": 1.0432,
            "adjusted": 15
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_SF@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_TOR@TEX

away

Spencer Miles

True

6.0

3.0

-9

-3

2/2

1/0

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.650909090909091,
      "WHIP": 1.0909090909090908,
      "IP": 91.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 47,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.714,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.6,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5303,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9549,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9737,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.8773,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.256,
      "xwoba": 0.268,
      "barrel_percent": 3.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 18.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 60,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 91.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.651,
      "season_WHIP": 1.091,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.631,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7884,
        "prior_weight": 0.2116
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693686",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 47,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.1,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
            "Pitches": 135.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.8,
            "Pitches": 27.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 1.08,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 13.2,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 54.0,
            "Pitches": 211.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 21.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.878,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29268,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02439,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 47,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 91.2,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 76.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 370.0,
            "Pitches": 1429.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.5745,
            "R": 0.617,
            "H": 1.617,
            "BB": 0.5106,
            "SO": 1.8511,
            "HR": 0.1064,
            "BF": 7.8723,
            "Pitches": 30.4043
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6509,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29455,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82909,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26182,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94909,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05455
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 2.2,
        "predicted_ER": 0.393,
        "predicted_H": 1.922,
        "predicted_BB": 0.838,
        "predicted_SO": 2.686,
        "predicted_HR": 0.102,
        "predicted_ERA": 1.3899,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0847
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4394,
      "form_weight": 0.5606,
      "form_reliability": 0.7884,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.631,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7884,
        "prior_weight": 0.2116
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.2,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.393,
          "final": 1.5385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.922,
          "final": 1.9563,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.838,
          "final": 0.9092,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.686,
          "final": 2.824,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.102,
          "final": 0.4966,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3899,
          "final": 1.3899,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0847,
          "final": 1.0847,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 13.2,
        "ER": 0,
        "H": 8,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 14,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.0,
        "WHIP": 0.8780487804878048,
        "K9": 9.21951219512195,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7673108560621595,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.631,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7884,
          "prior_weight": 0.2116
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693686",
      "player_name": "Spencer Miles",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4903,
        "runs_scored": 622.0,
        "runs_allowed": 669.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3032,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0129,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
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          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 155,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5032,
        "runs_scored": 651.0,
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        "run_differential": -29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1871,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3871,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693686",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693686",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.7,
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            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7362,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9442,
            "whiff_percent": 18.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.0327,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0786,
            "regression_edge": -0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.25,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8714,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0835
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693686",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 23,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 23,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.34123223383122,
              "release_spin_rate": 2452.3646237314592,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 23,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.34123223383122,
                "release_spin_rate": 2452.3646237314592,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.3412,
              "release_spin_rate": 2452.3646,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0835,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.5961,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5303,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9549,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9737,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693686",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9549,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 0.9549,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8773,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9737,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_TOR@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_TOR@TEX

home

Jacob deGrom

True

5.2

4.1

-4

4/5

2/4

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 154.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.322,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4313,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9633,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1029,
      "walk_factor": 0.944,
      "homer_factor": 1.0392,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.276,
      "xwoba": 0.284,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.5,
      "whiff_percent": 33.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 57,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 154.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.79,
      "season_WHIP": 1.069,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 89.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 0.7952,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 0.54217,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25301,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33735,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10843
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 198.0,
            "Pitches": 862.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.102,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79592,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34694,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08163
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.1,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 194.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 622.0,
            "Pitches": 2564.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2414,
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            "SO": 6.6897,
            "HR": 0.6897,
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            "Pitches": 88.4138
          },
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            "WHIP": 1.0691,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42117,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81641,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2527,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25702,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12959
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.388,
        "predicted_H": 3.947,
        "predicted_BB": 1.552,
        "predicted_SO": 6.857,
        "predicted_HR": 0.596,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9719,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0162
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.388,
          "final": 2.2281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.947,
          "final": 3.9688,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "final": 1.7366,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 6.857,
          "final": 6.9159,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.596,
          "final": 1.1747,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9719,
          "final": 3.9719,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0162,
          "final": 1.0162,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
        "WHIP": 1.1020408163265305,
        "K9": 12.122448979591837,
        "HR9": 0.7346938775510204,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9242883238476254,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5032,
        "runs_scored": 651.0,
        "runs_allowed": 680.0,
        "run_differential": -29.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1871,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3871,
        "offense_index": 0.9352,
        "defense_index": 1.0237,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0148
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4903,
        "runs_scored": 622.0,
        "runs_allowed": 669.0,
        "run_differential": -47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3032,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0129,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3161,
        "offense_index": 0.8936,
        "defense_index": 1.0405,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0804
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0952,
        "offense_edge": -0.0648,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1064,
        "defense_strength": 0.0237,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0405,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0088,
        "run_prevention": 0.9758,
        "strikeout": 1.0114
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "594798",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "594798",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 597.0,
            "k_percent": 31.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.276,
            "xwoba": 0.284,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.5977,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.716,
            "whiff_percent": 33.8,
            "swing_percent": 51.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9097,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.241,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1714,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7929,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 1.2571,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1831
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "594798",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.12098050726556,
              "release_spin_rate": 2431.696781055929,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.12098050726556,
                "release_spin_rate": 2431.696781055929,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.121,
              "release_spin_rate": 2431.6968,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1831,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.308,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4313,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9633,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.1029,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0392,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "594798",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9633,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9633,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0392,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.1029,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_TOR@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_WAS@STL

away

Jake Irvin

True

5.0

5.1

3/3

2/0

6/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.5121107266435985,
      "WHIP": 1.411764705882353,
      "IP": 96.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.807,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5247,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0446,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
      "walk_factor": 1.034,
      "homer_factor": 1.1414,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.352,
      "barrel_percent": 10.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 718,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663623",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 92.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.68,
            "WHIP": 1.56,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 872.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.349,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58389,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84564,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50336,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90604,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.61246,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93426,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.99654,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_BB": 2.549,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.8,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.471,
        "runs_scored": 795.0,
        "runs_allowed": 781.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0903,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.129,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0387,
        "offense_index": 1.1421,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 5.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 155,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4839,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1613,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.671,
        "offense_index": 1.0042,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -15.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.1421,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0042,
        "defense_strength": -0.1087,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0016,
        "run_prevention": 1.0053,
        "strikeout": 1.0034
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663623",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663623",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 406.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.8,
            "woba": 0.339,
            "xwoba": 0.352,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8634,
            "whiff_percent": 23.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.3117,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7913,
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.15,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1401
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663623",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.34919578737016,
              "release_spin_rate": 2366.528842737133,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 96,
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                "release_speed": 87.34919578737016,
                "release_spin_rate": 2366.528842737133,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3492,
              "release_spin_rate": 2366.5288,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1401,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0007,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5247,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0446,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9943,
          "walk_factor": 1.034,
          "homer_factor": 1.1414,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663623",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0446,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0446,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.034,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1414,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9943,
            "adjusted": 5
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_WAS@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260920

20260920_WAS@STL

home

Quinn Mathews

True

5.2

7.0

-1

4/7

3/2

9/3

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 37.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2136,
      "sample_weight": 0.548,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9818,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0081,
      "walk_factor": 1.0088,
      "homer_factor": 0.9278,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.288,
      "barrel_percent": 2.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 225,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "report_date": "20260920",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 498.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 99.6
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8118,
            "WHIP": 1.3412,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91765,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07059
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 162.0,
            "Pitches": 690.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1429,
            "R": 2.1429,
            "H": 5.1429,
            "BB": 2.2857,
            "SO": 5.1429,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 23.1429,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3929,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40179,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08036
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        },
        "season": {
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            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 162.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.1429,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.40179,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08036
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.567,
        "predicted_H": 5.521,
        "predicted_BB": 2.096,
        "predicted_SO": 5.235,
        "predicted_HR": 0.589,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1104,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3552
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.567,
          "final": 3.3208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.521,
          "final": 4.7209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.096,
          "final": 2.5716,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.235,
          "final": 7.2156,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.589,
          "final": 1.3313,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1104,
          "final": 4.1104,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3552,
          "final": 1.3552,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 37.1,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 36,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.6160714285714284,
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        "K9": 8.678571428571429,
        "HR9": 0.7232142857142857,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 2,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.904438196296605,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 7.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 155,
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        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4839,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1613,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.671,
        "offense_index": 1.0042,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 82,
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        "runs_scored": 795.0,
        "runs_allowed": 781.0,
        "run_differential": 14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0903,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.129,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0387,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0214
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0042,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9849
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687273",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687273",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.8211,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6659,
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1406
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687273",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.34025750789307,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3403,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0048,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9604,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0044,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260920_WAS@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}