Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260919 · dates 20260919 · generated 2026-09-20T09:00:18.890822+00:00

11-4

Winner picks · 73.3%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

15/30

Starter ER within ±1

19/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260919	15	15	0	11	4	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [2.05]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.3458.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	5	53.4%	80.0%	-26.6%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	7	56.6%	85.7%	-29.1%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	1	61.1%	100.0%	-38.9%	underconfident
0.70-0.80	2	71.6%	0.0%	71.6%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.3021	3.6271	2.7024	66.7%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.3333	3.7333	2.6667	46.7%	0.0312	-0.0357
enhanced_prediction	15	2.3667	4.0667	2.4667	73.3%	0.0646	-0.2357
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.4	4.1333	2.4	73.3%	0.0979	-0.3024
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.4	4.1333	2.4	73.3%	0.0979	-0.3024
capped_target	15	2.4	4.1333	2.4	73.3%	0.0979	-0.3024
simulation_result	15	2.4	4.1333	2.4	73.3%	0.0979	-0.3024
published_final	15	2.4	4.1333	2.4	73.3%	0.0979	-0.3024

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.4,
  "total_run_mae": 4.1333,
  "margin_mae": 2.4,
  "winner_hits": 11,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.7333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0979,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.3024
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	6.0	0.0	6.0	6.0	4	3	0	1	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	4	1	0	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.6115	-0.6751	-0.0636	1.2866	4	3	1	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 6.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6115,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.6751,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.0636,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.2866,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=11

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	13.0	0.0	13.0	13.0	11	8	0	3	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	11	1	0	10	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.4482	-1.0241	0.4241	2.4723	11	5	6	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11	0	0	11	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11	0	0	11	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11	0	0	11	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 11,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 13.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 13.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 13.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 8,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.4482,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0241,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.4241,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.4723,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 6,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	0	0	0
[0.525, 0.550)	5	4	1	0.8
[0.550, 0.600)	7	6	1	0.8571
[0.600, 1.010)	3	1	2	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 3,
    "hits": 1,
    "misses": 2,
    "accuracy": 0.3333
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.8
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 7,
      "hits": 6,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.8571
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260919	15	0.5785	9.4	0.7333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260919",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5785,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.4,
      "accuracy": 0.7333
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	11	4	0.7333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 11,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.7333
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260919_ATL@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scoreATL 4 - 3 HOU

Final confidence56.2%

Calibrationraw 65.0% → blended 60.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=641

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8964

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.354997973371472-4.277372036708538	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.12403,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.562015,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.437985,
    "away_win_probability": 0.562015
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12403,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 11)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.56201515,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.650472,
    "sample_size": 641,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5507,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.600586,
    "published_confidence": 0.562015,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.224,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.288,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8964
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026526680435595612
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.025294132681158522
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02528766250400654
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024698821026951322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024112685042731282
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09292066004607723,
      "1": 0.13859510865282137,
      "2": 0.1733615659704906,
      "3": 0.18185575118242023,
      "4": 0.1599817929993343,
      "5": 0.1180275467850156,
      "6": 0.07302398037868889,
      "7": 0.03788932984350704,
      "8": 0.01648684848975273,
      "9": 0.00601627488052613,
      "10": 0.0018411407713658054
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05369209656717373,
      "1": 0.08239985199354129,
      "2": 0.11227232208400664,
      "3": 0.13581545189723385,
      "4": 0.14586660176057117,
      "5": 0.13908898957936106,
      "6": 0.11774970925356378,
      "7": 0.08850282614533803,
      "8": 0.05905880284752285,
      "9": 0.03498987121229744,
      "10": 0.01840476400384499,
      "11": 0.008595049191190782,
      "12": 0.0035636634643547442
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 HOU",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 HOU",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0116,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.638,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
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      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6086,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.224,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.288,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.8964
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3765,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3765,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.8964,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.224,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.1,
          "home_runs": 2.772,
          "home_win_probability": 0.3871
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.13927527621425018,
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          "3": 0.18531192926008175,
          "4": 0.16195438776748178,
          "5": 0.11763372175983704,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "8": 0.05751583021322905,
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          "10": 0.01688364123366166,
          "11": 0.007582740317752161,
          "12": 0.0030051539317847605
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.354997973371472,
      "home_runs": 4.277372036708538,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_BOS@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreBOS 4 - 5 TB

Final confidence52.9%

Calibrationraw 54.0% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=622

H2H base featurehome net -20.0 · absolute 20.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2994

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.866570768080433-4.850831559980443	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.058396,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.529198,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.529198,
    "away_win_probability": 0.470802
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.058396,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.52919767,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.539524,
    "sample_size": 622,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.547912,
    "published_confidence": 0.529198,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -20.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 20.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1154,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1154,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0514,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.76,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2994
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020367980342833943
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01989505356437314
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      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019197590945353674
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01878989137353943
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04993834129074794,
      "1": 0.0768444369988319,
      "2": 0.10554689446464122,
      "3": 0.1293996769925823,
      "4": 0.14160403588087525,
      "5": 0.13831611339769437,
      "6": 0.12059370244704862,
      "7": 0.09384933235275913,
      "8": 0.06519172190231283,
      "9": 0.04042112748774965,
      "10": 0.02237067564331482,
      "11": 0.011051073946249356,
      "12": 0.004872867195192586
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05183762355321508,
      "1": 0.07965902965255987,
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      "3": 0.13269319095782323,
      "4": 0.14383756943176787,
      "5": 0.13879504327999492,
      "6": 0.11922120325698496,
      "7": 0.09116139615799768,
      "8": 0.06205065328271489,
      "9": 0.037597560917282266,
      "10": 0.02027920419694668,
      "11": 0.009736885612619164,
      "12": 0.004161665314823535
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.052,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.41,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5292,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5759,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5292,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2994,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.76,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.052,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.2,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T18:36:37.768132+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-19T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.540412,
      "confidence": 0.540412,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_CHC@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreCHC 7 - 4 CIN

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 83.0% → blended 69.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=275

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.6074

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.630811205626478-3.8274219518222665	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 7 - 4 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.829714,
    "sample_size": 275,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.56,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.694857,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -12.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.0292,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.824,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.6074
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.016082128082015836
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015835260441467443
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05371459771962791,
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      "12": 0.0035569384176068974
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.021505652428603608,
      "1": 0.03377723954641282,
      "2": 0.04933291912966049,
      "3": 0.06700243774427829,
      "4": 0.08462243590341316,
      "5": 0.09938516667398126,
      "6": 0.10854223184964028,
      "7": 0.11023437734832804,
      "8": 0.10410617459425296,
      "9": 0.09142754383937027,
      "10": 0.07466528827263096,
      "11": 0.05670241662848138,
      "12": 0.04004289979387647,
      "13": 0.02629605509939315,
      "14": 0.01605819808895655,
      "15": 0.009118935626897149,
      "16": 0.004815402767379538,
      "17": 0.0023646246644436456
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 7 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "CHC 7 - 4 CIN",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0246,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.754,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.7093,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
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        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 0
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    },
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -12.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 154,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.4675324675324675,
          "runs_scored": 639,
          "runs_allowed": 791,
          "run_differential": -152,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.987012987012987,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 154,
          "wins": 85,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.551948051948052,
          "runs_scored": 821,
          "runs_allowed": 680,
          "run_differential": 141,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.9155844155844156,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.9026,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0844,
        "quality_edge": -1.6074,
        "season_quality_edge": -2.0292,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.0292,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.824,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.6074
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -2.5718,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -2.5718,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": -1.6074,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.0292,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 8.032,
          "home_runs": 1.647,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.016762960127082446
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.016492552583744144
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 7,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 8,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.015685532284264125
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05205702048089317,
          "1": 0.08166337875901289,
          "2": 0.11304236067374214,
          "3": 0.13807686842541386,
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          "5": 0.14153956585988506,
          "6": 0.1187832159583724,
          "7": 0.08796261583418373,
          "8": 0.057478712187377747,
          "9": 0.033142232450647596,
          "10": 0.01686251408397217,
          "11": 0.00757057259651278,
          "12": 0.0029991692034522653
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.020207920727773474,
          "1": 0.03248240008289523,
          "2": 0.048372364679903836,
          "3": 0.06673739506409161,
          "4": 0.08530292223360639,
          "5": 0.10101393577037983,
          "6": 0.11082083083250219,
          "7": 0.11263781995313493,
          "8": 0.10606443830507681,
          "9": 0.09252904544624677,
          "10": 0.07478406925526715,
          "11": 0.055996750992925025,
          "12": 0.03884537258658661,
          "13": 0.02496539712655354,
          "14": 0.014864845228750654,
          "15": 0.008199833427326185,
          "16": 0.004190563192176206,
          "17": 0.0019840950948037434
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.630811205626478,
      "home_runs": 3.8274219518222665,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_DET@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreDET 6 - 4 CHW

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 70.4% → blended 63.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=612

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4789

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.315719157022988-4.640575590864536	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 6 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.704048,
    "sample_size": 612,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.631424,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.237,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.928,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4789
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01748072951231098
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017023225186044575
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016620004455430656
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.016506425374410074
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016313118674454404
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05414660642109895,
      "1": 0.08307048050945645,
      "2": 0.11307620594068925,
      "3": 0.13656668247546133,
      "4": 0.14634143748893205,
      "5": 0.13913580330656564,
      "6": 0.11737064971884473,
      "7": 0.08784744674742254,
      "8": 0.05833749866893597,
      "9": 0.03437284584899755,
      "10": 0.017969343167162463,
      "11": 0.00833485292442728,
      "12": 0.0034301467820058466
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02895493222535436,
      "1": 0.04522321200587145,
      "2": 0.06494953240881435,
      "3": 0.08577612519050917,
      "4": 0.10416758361935739,
      "5": 0.11632539271272403,
      "6": 0.119451672829393,
      "7": 0.11279392670759074,
      "8": 0.09793884257530973,
      "9": 0.07819878219965423,
      "10": 0.057414393770228875,
      "11": 0.0387629970854216,
      "12": 0.024065211607454184,
      "13": 0.013738451735215854,
      "14": 0.00721209885914104,
      "15": 0.0034814592901362775,
      "16": 0.001545385177823897
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 6 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 6 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0555,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.718,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "DET",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4789,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6447,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4789,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.928,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0555,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
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      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.95,
        "new_value": 2.05,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T17:36:20.662143+00:00",
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      "verified_pregame": true,
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_KC@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scoreKC 4 - 5 PIT

Final confidence54.1%

Calibrationraw 59.8% → blended 57.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=485

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.7772

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.016367737945472-4.427174631629173	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.08196,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54098,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54098,
    "away_win_probability": 0.45902
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08196,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.5409802,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.597585,
    "sample_size": 485,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.570942,
    "published_confidence": 0.54098,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.9221,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.508,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.597585,
        "sample_size": 485,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.570942,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5494,
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        "score_gap": 0.6489,
        "calibration_sample_size": 485,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5427,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.7772,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": 1,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.577691,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 29,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
        "sample_weight": 0.0167,
        "home_net_margin": 3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.025,
        "away_run_delta": -0.025,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "wins": 77,
          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 738,
          "runs_allowed": 711,
          "run_differential": 27,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.17532467532467533,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "KC",
          "games": 154,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 87,
          "win_pct": 0.43506493506493504,
          "runs_scored": 648,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.6493506493506493,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.8247,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0649,
        "quality_edge": 0.7772,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.9221,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.7772
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.3264,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.3264,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.7772,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.9221,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.617,
          "home_runs": 4.266,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5552
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0632700688514368,
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          "11": 0.0033562712262722983
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.016367737945472,
      "home_runs": 4.427174631629173,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_MIA@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreMIA 5 - 8 SD

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 85.4% → blended 70.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=275

H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5701

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.1615103358605365-4.166298079380787	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 8-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 8 SD",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.853867,
    "sample_size": 275,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.56,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.706933,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0937,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0937,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3084,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.056,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5701
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.013082931033621965
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.012795824669595309
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.012574321611079218
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01257129247910704
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01236733670057706
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.014926775272980052,
      "1": 0.023568720971775804,
      "2": 0.03497390633063291,
      "3": 0.04877422501536058,
      "4": 0.06392558628092132,
      "5": 0.07874031888591679,
      "6": 0.09115022102248611,
      "7": 0.09916453737638854,
      "8": 0.10138954205577985,
      "9": 0.09742446736364582,
      "10": 0.08797940610646102,
      "11": 0.07466758743366717,
      "12": 0.05955542382166749,
      "13": 0.04464251233903032,
      "14": 0.03144952151624981,
      "15": 0.02082176615018508,
      "16": 0.012955649618525251,
      "17": 0.0075759819444251005,
      "18": 0.0041634828018342835,
      "19": 0.002150367692066559
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037331376120209016,
      "1": 0.05795625150268394,
      "2": 0.08174801614766765,
      "3": 0.10476224590111952,
      "4": 0.12197842548468284,
      "5": 0.12903629672599112,
      "6": 0.12401990734075322,
      "7": 0.1082982799831139,
      "8": 0.085921600908006,
      "9": 0.061934666878870066,
      "10": 0.040561676441893915,
      "11": 0.024135073809528153,
      "12": 0.013047641361758495,
      "13": 0.006408642342955728,
      "14": 0.0028598990507664214
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 8 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "MIA 5 - 8 SD",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0703,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.406,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 8
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 8
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5701,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 8,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6719,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5701,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.056,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0703,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.6667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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    },
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    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260919_MIL@BAL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBAL

Published scoreMIL 4 - 5 BAL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=551

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.2982

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.979125167079161-4.760493495332001	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BAL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 551,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 551,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5608,
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.2982,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 5
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          "margin": 1,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 19,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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        "sample_weight": 0.0167,
        "home_net_margin": -1.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
        "evidence": [
          {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 154,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.487012987012987,
          "runs_scored": 693,
          "runs_allowed": 720,
          "run_differential": -27,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.17532467532467533,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 154,
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          "losses": 58,
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          "run_differential": 198,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.2857142857142858,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.461,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1364,
        "quality_edge": -1.2982,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.6656,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.616,
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          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.2982
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.5452,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.5452,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.2982,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.6656,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.066,
          "home_runs": 5.015,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5807
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.012602856845178275,
          "12": 0.0056600434762128955
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.979125167079161,
      "home_runs": 4.760493495332001,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_MIN@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAA

Published scoreMIN 3 - 4 LAA

Final confidence55.4%

Calibrationraw 61.8% → blended 59.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=379

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0225

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.788679236432034-4.813020583771049	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.108732,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554366,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.554366,
    "away_win_probability": 0.445634
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.108732,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAA wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.5543659575,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.617644,
    "sample_size": 379,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5673,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.592472,
    "published_confidence": 0.554366,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1851,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.408,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0225
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0257392509919907
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02484986881211784
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02447274418585926
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02362712429667666
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023426220912885327
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06095626243960508,
      "1": 0.09306503810539307,
      "2": 0.12485022055233873,
      "3": 0.14717247495315944,
      "4": 0.1524398096654979,
      "5": 0.13874097028904858,
      "6": 0.11095466897422017,
      "7": 0.07796882004240276,
      "8": 0.04814274692229027,
      "9": 0.02612012773327965,
      "10": 0.012452434078548513,
      "11": 0.005216362105436169,
      "12": 0.0019200641387798227
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07807258865278979,
      "1": 0.11774830399346678,
      "2": 0.15227232173419072,
      "3": 0.1688486166997382,
      "4": 0.1605403748506401,
      "5": 0.13088240498414017,
      "6": 0.09149313077212082,
      "7": 0.054841072473558454,
      "8": 0.028186011058585942,
      "9": 0.012421427960126047,
      "10": 0.004693746820643144
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "LAA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0622,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.338,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "model_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner": "LAA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0225,
      "winner": "LAA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5544,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6253,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5544,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0225,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.408,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0622,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
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    },
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    {
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      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_NYY@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 5 - 2 ARI

Final confidence71.1%

Calibrationraw 90.5% → blended 73.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=204

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9945

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.896590275329932-3.1763020174507224	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.422498,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.711249,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.288751,
    "away_win_probability": 0.711249
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  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.422498,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 5-2",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 2 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.711249,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.905436,
    "sample_size": 204,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.729668,
    "published_confidence": 0.711249,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
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    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
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    "home_run_delta": -0.0583,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0583,
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    "adaptive_parameters": {
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  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9945
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "home_runs": 2,
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      {
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    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.1272778556239923,
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      "5": 0.12706050252196413,
      "6": 0.12372144899243007,
      "7": 0.10971303726196374,
      "8": 0.08860338007294001,
      "9": 0.0651660133231274,
      "10": 0.04364865112548853,
      "11": 0.026625594463241333,
      "12": 0.014791309003902575,
      "13": 0.007483292456293774,
      "14": 0.003447923631330862
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 5 - 2 ARI",
      "winner": "NYY"
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    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "NYY 5 - 2 ARI",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0341,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.198,
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      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
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    "total_run_delta": 0,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 2,
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      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 2
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    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.7112,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6827,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7112,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.848,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0341,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 0
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-20T00:10:00+00:00",
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            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
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        "raw_confidence": 0.905436,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 204,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          },
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 74,
          "win_pct": 0.5194805194805194,
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          "run_differential": -7,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.045454545454545456,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.9801,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0622,
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        "season_quality_edge": -1.0734,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "season_weight": 0.65,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.4177,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.9945,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.0734,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 5.958,
          "home_runs": 0.76,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 3.1763020174507224,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_OAK@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreOAK 4 - 6 CLE

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 81.8% → blended 68.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=370

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.2621

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.304479448282424-4.545833463092229	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.817577,
    "sample_size": 370,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5514,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.684488,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.75,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0437,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0437,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.5455,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.736,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.2621
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018630609806111094
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018599941574120513
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018061263745483242
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018031532725814318
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01768635605291719
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02839841833414657,
      "1": 0.044372234368500865,
      "2": 0.06380589457147914,
      "3": 0.08443891878169223,
      "4": 0.10283877229095464,
      "5": 0.11526659413681112,
      "6": 0.11890014836748863,
      "7": 0.11287394136086201,
      "8": 0.09861371992552243,
      "9": 0.07928907496807691,
      "10": 0.05867076063137156,
      "11": 0.039954200442954224,
      "12": 0.025040069356726688,
      "13": 0.014442453197506937,
      "14": 0.007666175693013049,
      "15": 0.0037449750225228414,
      "16": 0.0016836485503701124
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06764507484221016,
      "1": 0.10278386333090475,
      "2": 0.1359218482562982,
      "3": 0.1564332915433634,
      "4": 0.15669122420712925,
      "5": 0.1365952954833544,
      "6": 0.10363403036474211,
      "7": 0.06842969635141855,
      "8": 0.039324428114520006,
      "9": 0.01966780058458486,
      "10": 0.008561005086960902,
      "11": 0.003243166848859506,
      "12": 0.0010692749856539589
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.067,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.911,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CLE",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2621,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.7122,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2621,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.736,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.067,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 10,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_PHI@NYM

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYM

Published scorePHI 5 - 6 NYM

Final confidence52.9%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=623

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3821

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.926688782677083-5.156802579244353	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.058214,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.529107,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.529107,
    "away_win_probability": 0.470893
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.058214,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 6 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.529106635,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 623,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.557,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50855,
    "published_confidence": 0.529107,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6266,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.072,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3821
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01709328300276935
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016398299197353774
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016311749173715123
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01625311576318386
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01613541335233423
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03823725357199818,
      "1": 0.059324045115129224,
      "2": 0.08351433343287261,
      "3": 0.10667864212020578,
      "4": 0.1236460184709671,
      "5": 0.1300376135065358,
      "6": 0.12409207372998313,
      "7": 0.10744972073691027,
      "8": 0.0844214363947658,
      "9": 0.06018473887550606,
      "10": 0.0389319557605059,
      "11": 0.022851370882692672,
      "12": 0.012170389965140638,
      "13": 0.005881429919445626,
      "14": 0.0025789775173413053
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.039618904595121913,
      "1": 0.061406931793144215,
      "2": 0.08619067234019002,
      "3": 0.1095547152078487,
      "4": 0.12610427671782504,
      "5": 0.1314487596460714,
      "6": 0.12408266283295986,
      "7": 0.10607026478700558,
      "8": 0.08211152851546275,
      "9": 0.057562885479569406,
      "10": 0.03654339655093963,
      "11": 0.021008894543561318,
      "12": 0.010937685385644425,
      "13": 0.005156744198014696,
      "14": 0.0022016774066412324
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 6 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 6 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0438,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.142,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3821,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5291,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5404,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5291,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3821,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.072,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0438,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 2.05,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T19:36:22.841002+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-19T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.540286,
      "confidence": 0.540286,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.540372,
      "confidence": 0.540372,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
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        "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sample_size": 623,
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
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        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          },
          "margin": 1,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 22,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": 3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
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            "home_margin": -5.0
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "losses": 84,
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          "runs_scored": 656,
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          "run_differential": -43,
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        "away": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 154,
          "wins": 85,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.551948051948052,
          "runs_scored": 687,
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          "run_differential": 31,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.2012987012987013,
          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.4805,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0974,
        "quality_edge": -0.3821,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.6266,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.6266,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.072,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.3821
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.11080063253129996,
          "4": 0.12846187298550868,
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          "8": 0.08182639308489409,
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          "14": 0.0018224075163793079
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.926688782677083,
      "home_runs": 5.156802579244353,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_SEA@COL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreSEA 10 - 5 COL

Final confidence72.1%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 75.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 59.7% · weight 50.0% · n=134

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.0083

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	6.013130833834458-4.126294909825292	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	9-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	10-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	10-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	10-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	10-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 10,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.442608,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.721304,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.278696,
    "away_win_probability": 0.721304
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.442608,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 10-5",
    "away_runs": 10,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 10,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 10 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.721304,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 134,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.597,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7585,
    "published_confidence": 0.721304,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9545,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.108,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.0083
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.012757145218587531
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.012511409397728086
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.012493350350367223
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 10,
        "probability": 0.012310364602690096
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.012252695905267785
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04283711575142582,
      "1": 0.06624307421147815,
      "2": 0.0923420085891522,
      "3": 0.11603706506501474,
      "4": 0.131441569154228,
      "5": 0.1342169344838884,
      "6": 0.12354366371415736,
      "7": 0.10251141258437695,
      "8": 0.07667654587622061,
      "9": 0.05170010722770347,
      "10": 0.03142381634348972,
      "11": 0.017217297853799766,
      "12": 0.008503733440559757,
      "13": 0.003786106835288663,
      "14": 0.0015195488692165374
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01097605569722864,
      "1": 0.017391311954074017,
      "2": 0.026078856279275375,
      "3": 0.03700964243843,
      "4": 0.04970629468096615,
      "5": 0.06317977045872453,
      "6": 0.07600022007248557,
      "7": 0.0865210554423223,
      "8": 0.09321781521712502,
      "9": 0.09504870058046898,
      "10": 0.09171990591222935,
      "11": 0.08376279679099617,
      "12": 0.07239505319531174,
      "13": 0.05921568615577132,
      "14": 0.04583896393473494,
      "15": 0.03358172281884319,
      "16": 0.023283126885511582,
      "17": 0.015277411964562067,
      "18": 0.009486989660834612,
      "19": 0.005575415233681458,
      "20": 0.0031009599704482443,
      "21": 0.0016322446559749414
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 10,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 10 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 10,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 10 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0789,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.458,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 10,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 5,
      "simulation_margin": 5,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 10,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 10,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 5,
      "final_margin": 5,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.0083,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 10,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.7213,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7213,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
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          "11": 0.015834739128181643,
          "12": 0.007543015975075366,
          "13": 0.0032218616009137002
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.010051980333492892,
          "1": 0.01630753200856955,
          "2": 0.024967084434714078,
          "3": 0.03607367608220376,
          "4": 0.049187636344191966,
          "5": 0.0632942833222237,
          "6": 0.07686276455995976,
          "7": 0.08808673158260578,
          "8": 0.0952682027022719,
          "9": 0.09723630093435794,
          "10": 0.09365950690559302,
          "11": 0.08513698885846925,
          "12": 0.07303443699717063,
          "13": 0.059126213405939855,
          "14": 0.04517263539997762,
          "15": 0.03256970095457275,
          "16": 0.022161292947923822,
          "17": 0.014230475085463283,
          "18": 0.00862356189510347,
          "19": 0.004931703419883951,
          "20": 0.00266164541876913,
          "21": 0.0013556464065417391
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 6.013130833834458,
      "home_runs": 4.126294909825292,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 10,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 10,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 10,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 10,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_SF@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreSF 1 - 7 LAD

Final confidence56.5%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 91.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 75.0% · weight 2.0% · n=4

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.503

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	2.937413019628335-5.741514674929781	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	1-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	1-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	1-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	1-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.130262,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.565131,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.565131,
    "away_win_probability": 0.434869
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.130262,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 7-1",
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 1,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 1 - 7 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.565131,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.75,
    "empirical_weight": 0.02,
    "blended_confidence": 0.9166,
    "published_confidence": 0.565131,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.987,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.604,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.503
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.026368053339822936
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.025630264538412797
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02505615582189916
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.023830250001887796
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 1,
        "probability": 0.023163469964711383
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.025957743774555668,
      "1": 0.040632505652896146,
      "2": 0.058747807138900675,
      "3": 0.07845508717766525,
      "4": 0.09677472613968406,
      "5": 0.11025903457628716,
      "6": 0.11603200928228255,
      "7": 0.11278538671404406,
      "8": 0.10126030844860542,
      "9": 0.08397249395180997,
      "10": 0.06432003179077458,
      "11": 0.04550580923219511,
      "12": 0.029737114573707178,
      "13": 0.017949080413769275,
      "14": 0.010006840398874142,
      "15": 0.005153035518577342,
      "16": 0.0024509852153714426
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.14343891269993578,
      "1": 0.20537651764620907,
      "2": 0.2272480973390262,
      "3": 0.19431905714953218,
      "4": 0.12840921831745444,
      "5": 0.06557566126915722,
      "6": 0.02587943699491458,
      "7": 0.007892827989305054,
      "8": 0.00186027059446541
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "SF 1 - 7 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "SF 1 - 7 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.069,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.674,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 6,
      "simulation_margin": 6,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 7
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 6,
      "final_margin": 6,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.503,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 1,
        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.5651,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5651,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 6,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.503,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.604,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.069,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.95,
        "new_value": 2.05,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T00:36:31.903638+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-20T01:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.565131,
      "confidence": 0.565131,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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      "confidence": 0.565691,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 2,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
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    {
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      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 1,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_TOR@TEX

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTEX

Published scoreTOR 2 - 4 TEX

Final confidence61.1%

Calibrationraw 70.6% → blended 62.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=701

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1997

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.2402637399057435-3.9588747398033783	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.222004,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.611002,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.611002,
    "away_win_probability": 0.388998
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.222004,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.611002,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.706325,
    "sample_size": 701,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.629213,
    "published_confidence": 0.611002,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": 2.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0747,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.432,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1997
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.031914614905981555
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03106447963919528
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029898827001722264
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029102387898678538
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.028743287320139154
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06258991070814979,
      "1": 0.09544780599874446,
      "2": 0.12759946997400326,
      "3": 0.14953852523102362,
      "4": 0.15363091549535948,
      "5": 0.13836474475245822,
      "6": 0.10924298951218417,
      "7": 0.07561065651432364,
      "8": 0.045876866193632154,
      "9": 0.024402020150783247,
      "10": 0.011378345616158024,
      "11": 0.004651079507416885,
      "12": 0.0016666703457629442
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.12188722686577315,
      "1": 0.17773455781244848,
      "2": 0.20773562927147665,
      "3": 0.19461465099858352,
      "4": 0.14613878882955397,
      "5": 0.08795912605110863,
      "6": 0.04243475876389593,
      "7": 0.016409222340936423,
      "8": 0.005086039066223399
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0519,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.782,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
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      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
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    },
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "max": 4,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0649,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0065,
        "quality_edge": 0.1997,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0747,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.0747,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.432,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1997
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.033139681493200575
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.032212282250069
          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.029686857367728667
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.060952697673088196,
          "1": 0.09498446508153885,
          "2": 0.12888467848664883,
          "3": 0.1522786665656633,
          "4": 0.15666280547956404,
          "5": 0.1403401044169441,
          "6": 0.10946789139611877,
          "7": 0.07434996553030787,
          "8": 0.04397074782808123,
          "9": 0.022643105696442487,
          "10": 0.010153065718117327,
          "11": 0.0039641261107325534,
          "12": 0.0013476800167522612
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.12076890668969512,
          "1": 0.17954343017610502,
          "2": 0.21153509533903692,
          "3": 0.19751217525286052,
          "4": 0.14615169029756592,
          "5": 0.08570622012764634,
          "6": 0.039830831292604875,
          "7": 0.014669824828693024,
          "8": 0.004281825995792495
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.2402637399057435,
      "home_runs": 3.9588747398033783,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260919_WAS@STL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreWAS 5 - 4 STL

Final confidence54.3%

Calibrationraw 63.9% → blended 59.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=623

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2547

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.267219736223045-3.990734686192796	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.086208,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.543104,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.456896,
    "away_win_probability": 0.543104
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.086208,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 STL",
    "confidence": 0.54310435,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.638528,
    "sample_size": 623,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.549,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.593764,
    "published_confidence": 0.543104,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.25,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0312,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0312,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1851,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.384,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2547
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020688134665912537
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020536261065154125
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019980228201181324
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.019833551410359383
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018820607237591762
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06102582554027518,
      "1": 0.09316661856848486,
      "2": 0.12496788225168874,
      "3": 0.147274614225764,
      "4": 0.15249260525426733,
      "5": 0.13872702766463232,
      "6": 0.11088295343398405,
      "7": 0.07786815697300022,
      "8": 0.04804480256200254,
      "9": 0.02604499851834724,
      "10": 0.012404911431701113,
      "11": 0.005191040358557739,
      "12": 0.0019085632172946643
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0449576759083006,
      "1": 0.06941788435888913,
      "2": 0.09633231654441551,
      "3": 0.12014501160361096,
      "4": 0.13467053717727365,
      "5": 0.13566647793456596,
      "6": 0.12283032963863263,
      "7": 0.09994746731927384,
      "8": 0.0730922075592201,
      "9": 0.048040052488442286,
      "10": 0.02837716313046052,
      "11": 0.015064946354085089,
      "12": 0.007187855062774946,
      "13": 0.00308222360615728,
      "14": 0.001187851313897311
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 STL",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 STL",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0708,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.384,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2547,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5431,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6348,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5431,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2547,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.384,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0708,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-18T09:05:32.063728+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.95,
        "new_value": 2.05,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T22:39:10.494981+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-19T23:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.44034,
      "confidence": 0.55966,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 2.05,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.438842,
      "confidence": 0.561158,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_sample_size": 623,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5476,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2547,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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          },
          "margin": -1,
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 23,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "available": true,
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        "sample_weight": 0.05,
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        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.25,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0312,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0312,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -8.0
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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        ],
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "runs_scored": 694,
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          "run_differential": -22,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.14285714285714285,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "WAS",
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          "losses": 82,
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          "runs_scored": 787,
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          "run_differential": 11,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.07142857142857142,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2143,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0195,
        "quality_edge": -0.2547,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
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      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.267219736223045,
      "home_runs": 3.990734686192796,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260919	20260919_ATL@HOU	ATL	56.2%	65.0%	55.1%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	6-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.650472, "sample_size": 641, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5507, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.600586, "published_confidence": 0.562015, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -4.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0333, "away_run_delta": 0.0333, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.224, "recent_quality_edge": -0.288, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8964 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026526680435595612 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.025294132681158522 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02528766250400654 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024698821026951322 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024112685042731282 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09292066004607723, "1": 0.13859510865282137, "2": 0.1733615659704906, "3": 0.18185575118242023, "4": 0.1599817929993343, "5": 0.1180275467850156, "6": 0.07302398037868889, "7": 0.03788932984350704, "8": 0.01648684848975273, "9": 0.00601627488052613, "10": 0.0018411407713658054 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05369209656717373, "1": 0.08239985199354129, "2": 0.11227232208400664, "3": 0.13581545189723385, "4": 0.14586660176057117, "5": 0.13908898957936106, "6": 0.11774970925356378, "7": 0.08850282614533803, "8": 0.05905880284752285, "9": 0.03498987121229744, "10": 0.01840476400384499, "11": 0.008595049191190782, "12": 0.0035636634643547442 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 HOU", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 3 HOU", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0116, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.638, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8964, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_BOS@TB	TB	52.9%	54.0%	55.6%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.0157)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.539524, "sample_size": 622, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5563, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.547912, "published_confidence": 0.529198, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -20.0, "absolute_net_margin": 20.0, "home_average_margin": -4.0, "home_run_delta": -0.1154, "away_run_delta": 0.1154, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0514, "recent_quality_edge": 0.76, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2994 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020367980342833943 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01989505356437314 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019653938288708036 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019197590945353674 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01878989137353943 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04993834129074794, "1": 0.0768444369988319, "2": 0.10554689446464122, "3": 0.1293996769925823, "4": 0.14160403588087525, "5": 0.13831611339769437, "6": 0.12059370244704862, "7": 0.09384933235275913, "8": 0.06519172190231283, "9": 0.04042112748774965, "10": 0.02237067564331482, "11": 0.011051073946249356, "12": 0.004872867195192586 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05183762355321508, "1": 0.07965902965255987, "2": 0.10896897438527, "3": 0.13269319095782323, "4": 0.14383756943176787, "5": 0.13879504327999492, "6": 0.11922120325698496, "7": 0.09116139615799768, "8": 0.06205065328271489, "9": 0.037597560917282266, "10": 0.02027920419694668, "11": 0.009736885612619164, "12": 0.004161665314823535 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.052, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.41, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2994, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_CHC@CIN	CHC	56.0%	83.0%	56.0%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	5-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.829714, "sample_size": 275, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.56, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.694857, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -12.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.0292, "recent_quality_edge": -0.824, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.6074 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.016082128082015836 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015835260441467443 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015332668972010854 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.015188082649236039 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015097305853826097 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05371459771962791, "1": 0.08243306275619745, "2": 0.1123121725522162, "3": 0.13585277187361697, "4": 0.14589031542490732, "5": 0.13909153696728718, "6": 0.11773110833928205, "7": 0.08847041053467994, "8": 0.05902298046317214, "9": 0.03495912171940745, "10": 0.01838299097606898, "11": 0.008581992255929241, "12": 0.0035569384176068974 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.021505652428603608, "1": 0.03377723954641282, "2": 0.04933291912966049, "3": 0.06700243774427829, "4": 0.08462243590341316, "5": 0.09938516667398126, "6": 0.10854223184964028, "7": 0.11023437734832804, "8": 0.10410617459425296, "9": 0.09142754383937027, "10": 0.07466528827263096, "11": 0.05670241662848138, "12": 0.04004289979387647, "13": 0.02629605509939315, "14": 0.01605819808895655, "15": 0.009118935626897149, "16": 0.004815402767379538, "17": 0.0023646246644436456 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 7 - 4 CIN", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHC 7 - 4 CIN", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0246, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.754, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6074, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_DET@CHW	DET	56.0%	70.4%	55.9%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	1-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.704048, "sample_size": 612, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5588, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.631424, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.237, "recent_quality_edge": -0.928, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4789 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01748072951231098 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017023225186044575 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016620004455430656 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.016506425374410074 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016313118674454404 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05414660642109895, "1": 0.08307048050945645, "2": 0.11307620594068925, "3": 0.13656668247546133, "4": 0.14634143748893205, "5": 0.13913580330656564, "6": 0.11737064971884473, "7": 0.08784744674742254, "8": 0.05833749866893597, "9": 0.03437284584899755, "10": 0.017969343167162463, "11": 0.00833485292442728, "12": 0.0034301467820058466 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02895493222535436, "1": 0.04522321200587145, "2": 0.06494953240881435, "3": 0.08577612519050917, "4": 0.10416758361935739, "5": 0.11632539271272403, "6": 0.119451672829393, "7": 0.11279392670759074, "8": 0.09793884257530973, "9": 0.07819878219965423, "10": 0.057414393770228875, "11": 0.0387629970854216, "12": 0.024065211607454184, "13": 0.013738451735215854, "14": 0.00721209885914104, "15": 0.0034814592901362775, "16": 0.001545385177823897 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 6 - 4 CHW", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 6 - 4 CHW", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0555, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.718, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4789, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_KC@PIT	PIT	54.1%	59.8%	54.4%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	5-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.597585, "sample_size": 485, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.570942, "published_confidence": 0.54098, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.025, "away_run_delta": -0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.9221, "recent_quality_edge": 0.508, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.7772 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022058069843741267 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021712600273642874 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02147567555130408 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021139327337120383 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02020820860772715 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05044656716073851, "1": 0.07759833499151883, "2": 0.10646646216035797, "3": 0.13029053831765966, "4": 0.14221734592994303, "5": 0.13846241310300464, "6": 0.1202405234713343, "7": 0.0931342573695197, "8": 0.0643439456904716, "9": 0.039650216025764025, "10": 0.021793303250256014, "11": 0.010684155537703646, "12": 0.004671936991728212 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06482936210064055, "1": 0.0987046636095632, "2": 0.13132079780539235, "3": 0.15267195525037155, "4": 0.15510112145256305, "5": 0.13768940514903813, "6": 0.10681101072625075, "7": 0.07240381350205753, "8": 0.04288809662926222, "9": 0.02219944002797419, "10": 0.010041004968515564, "11": 0.0039686450648566286, "12": 0.0013706837135141724 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0834, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.858, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7772, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_MIA@SD	SD	58.0%	85.4%	56.0%	50.0%	5.0-8.0	6-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.853867, "sample_size": 275, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.56, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.706933, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": 3.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0937, "away_run_delta": -0.0937, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3084, "recent_quality_edge": 1.056, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.5701 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.013082931033621965 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.012795824669595309 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.012574321611079218 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01257129247910704 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01236733670057706 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.014926775272980052, "1": 0.023568720971775804, "2": 0.03497390633063291, "3": 0.04877422501536058, "4": 0.06392558628092132, "5": 0.07874031888591679, "6": 0.09115022102248611, "7": 0.09916453737638854, "8": 0.10138954205577985, "9": 0.09742446736364582, "10": 0.08797940610646102, "11": 0.07466758743366717, "12": 0.05955542382166749, "13": 0.04464251233903032, "14": 0.03144952151624981, "15": 0.02082176615018508, "16": 0.012955649618525251, "17": 0.0075759819444251005, "18": 0.0041634828018342835, "19": 0.002150367692066559 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.037331376120209016, "1": 0.05795625150268394, "2": 0.08174801614766765, "3": 0.10476224590111952, "4": 0.12197842548468284, "5": 0.12903629672599112, "6": 0.12401990734075322, "7": 0.1082982799831139, "8": 0.085921600908006, "9": 0.061934666878870066, "10": 0.040561676441893915, "11": 0.024135073809528153, "12": 0.013047641361758495, "13": 0.006408642342955728, "14": 0.0028598990507664214 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 8 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 8 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0703, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.406, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5701, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_MIL@BAL	BAL	53.0%	51.0%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	1-0	miss	Variance Applied (0.2186)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 551, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5608, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53545, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0083, "away_run_delta": 0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.6656, "recent_quality_edge": -0.616, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.2982 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018566574781033535 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018547433834449498 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01838886868307479 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018369910940068623 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016856164133071467 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04460471571162488, "1": 0.06889010280306078, "2": 0.09567160737460816, "3": 0.11947017200954749, "4": 0.13414858250408707, "5": 0.13544496574301026, "6": 0.12296735399437698, "7": 0.1003845713759975, "8": 0.0736875794302925, "9": 0.04863756148572052, "10": 0.02886685533169737, "11": 0.015405554661182111, "12": 0.007392739165157231, "13": 0.003189948034338058, "14": 0.0012376903752989944 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04644996293803791, "1": 0.07165517629980933, "2": 0.09915902012996967, "3": 0.12309469729854444, "4": 0.1370783674327274, "5": 0.13693704843663893, "6": 0.12271438145948195, "7": 0.0986489400168538, "8": 0.07113966965088488, "9": 0.046020753563622986, "10": 0.026706567166466372, "11": 0.013902883083491342, "12": 0.006492532523470881 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 5 BAL", "winner": "BAL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1038, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.966, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BAL", "model_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner": "BAL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BAL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -1.2982, "winner": "BAL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_MIN@LAA	LAA	55.4%	61.8%	56.7%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	5-6	hit	Variance Applied (-0.0243)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.617644, "sample_size": 379, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5673, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.592472, "published_confidence": 0.554366, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1851, "recent_quality_edge": 0.408, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0225 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0257392509919907 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02484986881211784 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02447274418585926 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02362712429667666 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023426220912885327 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06095626243960508, "1": 0.09306503810539307, "2": 0.12485022055233873, "3": 0.14717247495315944, "4": 0.1524398096654979, "5": 0.13874097028904858, "6": 0.11095466897422017, "7": 0.07796882004240276, "8": 0.04814274692229027, "9": 0.02612012773327965, "10": 0.012452434078548513, "11": 0.005216362105436169, "12": 0.0019200641387798227 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07807258865278979, "1": 0.11774830399346678, "2": 0.15227232173419072, "3": 0.1688486166997382, "4": 0.1605403748506401, "5": 0.13088240498414017, "6": 0.09149313077212082, "7": 0.054841072473558454, "8": 0.028186011058585942, "9": 0.012421427960126047, "10": 0.004693746820643144 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 LAA", "winner": "LAA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 LAA", "winner": "LAA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0622, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.338, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAA", "model_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner": "LAA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0225, "winner": "LAA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_NYY@ARI	NYY	71.1%	90.5%	55.4%	50.0%	5.0-2.0	3-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.905436, "sample_size": 204, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5539, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.729668, "published_confidence": 0.711249, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -7.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0583, "away_run_delta": 0.0583, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0734, "recent_quality_edge": -0.848, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9945 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.027073700070896586 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.026362223790030732 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025321649652044476 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02480283973218228 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.024151039936758878 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.1272778556239923, "1": 0.18476698914693068, "2": 0.2130772311892638, "3": 0.19520495543369012, "4": 0.14206456398147496, "5": 0.08213378137375248, "6": 0.03772237288127122, "7": 0.01376313343071487, "8": 0.0039891169389092915 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03568786711703251, "1": 0.055470357593292004, "2": 0.07851997440573025, "3": 0.10122275291354013, "4": 0.11883789511772266, "5": 0.12706050252196413, "6": 0.12372144899243007, "7": 0.10971303726196374, "8": 0.08860338007294001, "9": 0.0651660133231274, "10": 0.04364865112548853, "11": 0.026625594463241333, "12": 0.014791309003902575, "13": 0.007483292456293774, "14": 0.003447923631330862 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 2 ARI", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 2 ARI", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0341, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.198, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9945, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_OAK@CLE	CLE	58.0%	81.8%	55.1%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	6-12	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.817577, "sample_size": 370, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5514, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.684488, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 1.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0437, "away_run_delta": -0.0437, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.5455, "recent_quality_edge": 0.736, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.2621 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018630609806111094 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018599941574120513 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018061263745483242 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018031532725814318 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01768635605291719 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02839841833414657, "1": 0.044372234368500865, "2": 0.06380589457147914, "3": 0.08443891878169223, "4": 0.10283877229095464, "5": 0.11526659413681112, "6": 0.11890014836748863, "7": 0.11287394136086201, "8": 0.09861371992552243, "9": 0.07928907496807691, "10": 0.05867076063137156, "11": 0.039954200442954224, "12": 0.025040069356726688, "13": 0.014442453197506937, "14": 0.007666175693013049, "15": 0.0037449750225228414, "16": 0.0016836485503701124 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06764507484221016, "1": 0.10278386333090475, "2": 0.1359218482562982, "3": 0.1564332915433634, "4": 0.15669122420712925, "5": 0.1365952954833544, "6": 0.10363403036474211, "7": 0.06842969635141855, "8": 0.039324428114520006, "9": 0.01966780058458486, "10": 0.008561005086960902, "11": 0.003243166848859506, "12": 0.0010692749856539589 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 6 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.067, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.911, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CLE", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2621, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_PHI@NYM	NYM	52.9%	46.0%	55.7%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	3-10	hit	Variance Applied (-0.2301)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 623, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.557, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50855, "published_confidence": 0.529107, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6266, "recent_quality_edge": 0.072, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3821 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01709328300276935 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016398299197353774 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016311749173715123 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01625311576318386 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01613541335233423 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03823725357199818, "1": 0.059324045115129224, "2": 0.08351433343287261, "3": 0.10667864212020578, "4": 0.1236460184709671, "5": 0.1300376135065358, "6": 0.12409207372998313, "7": 0.10744972073691027, "8": 0.0844214363947658, "9": 0.06018473887550606, "10": 0.0389319557605059, "11": 0.022851370882692672, "12": 0.012170389965140638, "13": 0.005881429919445626, "14": 0.0025789775173413053 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.039618904595121913, "1": 0.061406931793144215, "2": 0.08619067234019002, "3": 0.1095547152078487, "4": 0.12610427671782504, "5": 0.1314487596460714, "6": 0.12408266283295986, "7": 0.10607026478700558, "8": 0.08211152851546275, "9": 0.057562885479569406, "10": 0.03654339655093963, "11": 0.021008894543561318, "12": 0.010937685385644425, "13": 0.005156744198014696, "14": 0.0022016774066412324 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 6 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 6 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0438, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.142, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3821, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_SEA@COL	SEA	72.1%	92.0%	59.7%	50.0%	10.0-5.0	3-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 134, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.597, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.7585, "published_confidence": 0.721304, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0083, "away_run_delta": 0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9545, "recent_quality_edge": -1.108, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.0083 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.012757145218587531 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.012511409397728086 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.012493350350367223 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 10, "probability": 0.012310364602690096 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.012252695905267785 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04283711575142582, "1": 0.06624307421147815, "2": 0.0923420085891522, "3": 0.11603706506501474, "4": 0.131441569154228, "5": 0.1342169344838884, "6": 0.12354366371415736, "7": 0.10251141258437695, "8": 0.07667654587622061, "9": 0.05170010722770347, "10": 0.03142381634348972, "11": 0.017217297853799766, "12": 0.008503733440559757, "13": 0.003786106835288663, "14": 0.0015195488692165374 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01097605569722864, "1": 0.017391311954074017, "2": 0.026078856279275375, "3": 0.03700964243843, "4": 0.04970629468096615, "5": 0.06317977045872453, "6": 0.07600022007248557, "7": 0.0865210554423223, "8": 0.09321781521712502, "9": 0.09504870058046898, "10": 0.09171990591222935, "11": 0.08376279679099617, "12": 0.07239505319531174, "13": 0.05921568615577132, "14": 0.04583896393473494, "15": 0.03358172281884319, "16": 0.023283126885511582, "17": 0.015277411964562067, "18": 0.009486989660834612, "19": 0.005575415233681458, "20": 0.0031009599704482443, "21": 0.0016322446559749414 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 10, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 10 - 5 COL", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 10, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 10 - 5 COL", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0789, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.458, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 10, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 5, "simulation_margin": 5, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 10, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 10, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 5, "final_margin": 5, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0083, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 10, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_SF@LAD	LAD	56.5%	92.0%	75.0%	2.0%	1.0-7.0	4-10	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 4, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.75, "empirical_weight": 0.02, "blended_confidence": 0.9166, "published_confidence": 0.565131, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.987, "recent_quality_edge": 0.604, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.503 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.026368053339822936 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.025630264538412797 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02505615582189916 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.023830250001887796 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 1, "probability": 0.023163469964711383 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.025957743774555668, "1": 0.040632505652896146, "2": 0.058747807138900675, "3": 0.07845508717766525, "4": 0.09677472613968406, "5": 0.11025903457628716, "6": 0.11603200928228255, "7": 0.11278538671404406, "8": 0.10126030844860542, "9": 0.08397249395180997, "10": 0.06432003179077458, "11": 0.04550580923219511, "12": 0.029737114573707178, "13": 0.017949080413769275, "14": 0.010006840398874142, "15": 0.005153035518577342, "16": 0.0024509852153714426 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.14343891269993578, "1": 0.20537651764620907, "2": 0.2272480973390262, "3": 0.19431905714953218, "4": 0.12840921831745444, "5": 0.06557566126915722, "6": 0.02587943699491458, "7": 0.007892827989305054, "8": 0.00186027059446541 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "SF 1 - 7 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "SF 1 - 7 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.069, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.674, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 6, "simulation_margin": 6, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 6, "final_margin": 6, "winner_quality_edge": 1.503, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_TOR@TEX	TEX	61.1%	70.6%	55.2%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	2-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.706325, "sample_size": 701, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.629213, "published_confidence": 0.611002, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0747, "recent_quality_edge": 0.432, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1997 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.031914614905981555 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03106447963919528 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029898827001722264 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029102387898678538 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.028743287320139154 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06258991070814979, "1": 0.09544780599874446, "2": 0.12759946997400326, "3": 0.14953852523102362, "4": 0.15363091549535948, "5": 0.13836474475245822, "6": 0.10924298951218417, "7": 0.07561065651432364, "8": 0.045876866193632154, "9": 0.024402020150783247, "10": 0.011378345616158024, "11": 0.004651079507416885, "12": 0.0016666703457629442 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.12188722686577315, "1": 0.17773455781244848, "2": 0.20773562927147665, "3": 0.19461465099858352, "4": 0.14613878882955397, "5": 0.08795912605110863, "6": 0.04243475876389593, "7": 0.016409222340936423, "8": 0.005086039066223399 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0519, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.782, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1997, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260919	20260919_WAS@STL	WAS	54.3%	63.9%	54.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	8-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.638528, "sample_size": 623, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.549, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.593764, "published_confidence": 0.543104, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.25, "home_run_delta": -0.0312, "away_run_delta": 0.0312, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1851, "recent_quality_edge": -0.384, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2547 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020688134665912537 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020536261065154125 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019980228201181324 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019833551410359383 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018820607237591762 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06102582554027518, "1": 0.09316661856848486, "2": 0.12496788225168874, "3": 0.147274614225764, "4": 0.15249260525426733, "5": 0.13872702766463232, "6": 0.11088295343398405, "7": 0.07786815697300022, "8": 0.04804480256200254, "9": 0.02604499851834724, "10": 0.012404911431701113, "11": 0.005191040358557739, "12": 0.0019085632172946643 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0449576759083006, "1": 0.06941788435888913, "2": 0.09633231654441551, "3": 0.12014501160361096, "4": 0.13467053717727365, "5": 0.13566647793456596, "6": 0.12283032963863263, "7": 0.09994746731927384, "8": 0.0730922075592201, "9": 0.048040052488442286, "10": 0.02837716313046052, "11": 0.015064946354085089, "12": 0.007187855062774946, "13": 0.00308222360615728, "14": 0.001187851313897311 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 STL", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 5 - 4 STL", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0708, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.384, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2547, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.3, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.3667 }
R	{ "mae": 1.8667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2667 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.8, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.5333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.8 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.8, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 3.4667, "mae_innings": 1.1556, "bias_outs": 0.6667 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260919

20260919_ATL@HOU

away

Grant Holmes

True

5.0

6.0

4/8

4/0

1/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6334106728538287,
      "WHIP": 1.3294663573085848,
      "IP": 143.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.816,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.393,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0334,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
      "walk_factor": 1.014,
      "homer_factor": 1.079,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.3,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.311,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.1,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 54,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 143.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.633,
      "season_WHIP": 1.329,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 364.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 72.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.875,
            "WHIP": 1.0417,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.20833,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70833,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.54167,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04167
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 738.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 73.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1014,
            "WHIP": 1.2162,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34459,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85135,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36486,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64865,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10135
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.2,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 60.0,
            "H": 129.0,
            "BB": 62.0,
            "SO": 112.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 614.0,
            "Pitches": 2296.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9333,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.0667,
            "SO": 3.7333,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.4667,
            "Pitches": 76.5333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6334,
            "WHIP": 1.3295,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40371,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89791,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43155,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77958,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13921
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.844205103683081,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 30.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5844,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 597.0,
        "run_differential": 115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7468,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8766,
        "offense_index": 1.0304,
        "defense_index": 1.1574,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3506,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4351,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7857,
        "offense_index": 0.9884,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -16.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.078
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2413,
        "offense_edge": 0.0304,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0116,
        "defense_strength": 0.1574,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0624,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0148,
        "run_prevention": 0.9703,
        "strikeout": 1.0082
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656550",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656550",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 581.0,
            "k_percent": 18.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.311,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.9272,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7091,
            "whiff_percent": 27.2,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.495,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1629,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0253
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656550",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.3989336845068,
              "release_spin_rate": 2453.170183545841,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.3989336845068,
                "release_spin_rate": 2453.170183545841,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2453.1702,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0253,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.181,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.393,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0334,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
          "walk_factor": 1.014,
          "homer_factor": 1.079,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "656550",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0334,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0334,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.014,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.079,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_ATL@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_ATL@HOU

home

Hayden Wesneski

True

5.1

-1

2/4

1/3

5/3

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6986301369863015,
      "WHIP": 1.13013698630137,
      "IP": 48.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.407,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0755,
      "sample_weight": 0.712,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9936,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9825,
      "walk_factor": 0.9858,
      "homer_factor": 0.9839,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
      "whiff_percent": 23.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 255,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 416.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 83.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4231,
            "WHIP": 0.9615,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61538,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07692
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 198.0,
            "Pitches": 737.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2222,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 4.3333,
            "BB": 1.7778,
            "SO": 4.2222,
            "HR": 0.4444,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.8889
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6986,
            "WHIP": 1.1301,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41096,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80137,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32877,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08219
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 198.0,
            "Pitches": 737.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2222,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 4.3333,
            "BB": 1.7778,
            "SO": 4.2222,
            "HR": 0.4444,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.8889
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6986,
            "WHIP": 1.1301,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41096,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80137,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32877,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78082,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08219
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.078,
        "predicted_H": 4.22,
        "predicted_BB": 1.88,
        "predicted_SO": 4.436,
        "predicted_HR": 0.553,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5059,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1437
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5009,
      "form_weight": 0.4991,
      "form_reliability": 0.6429,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.078,
          "final": 2.0389,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.22,
          "final": 3.1081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.88,
          "final": 1.4392,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.436,
          "final": 4.7185,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.553,
          "final": 0.276,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5059,
          "final": 3.5059,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1437,
          "final": 1.1437,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.6986301369863015,
        "WHIP": 1.13013698630137,
        "K9": 7.027397260273973,
        "HR9": 0.7397260273972603,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 9,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9092469863191418,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 9.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6429,
          "prior_weight": 0.3571
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 737.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3506,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4351,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7857,
        "offense_index": 0.9884,
        "defense_index": 0.9376,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.078
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5844,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 597.0,
        "run_differential": 115.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7468,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6234,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8766,
        "offense_index": 1.0304,
        "defense_index": 1.1574,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1633
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2413,
        "offense_edge": -0.0116,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0304,
        "defense_strength": -0.0624,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1574,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9873,
        "run_prevention": 1.0232,
        "strikeout": 0.9903
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 178.0,
            "k_percent": 19.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.288,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2435,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1341,
            "whiff_percent": 23.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3449,
            "command_and_miss": -0.205,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1015
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.03852243062536,
              "release_spin_rate": 2314.189096702115,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.03852243062536,
                "release_spin_rate": 2314.189096702115,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0385,
              "release_spin_rate": 2314.1891,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1015,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7252,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0755,
          "sample_weight": 0.712,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9936,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9825,
          "walk_factor": 0.9858,
          "homer_factor": 0.9839,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669713",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9954,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9899,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9885,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9875,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_ATL@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_BOS@TB

away

Brayan Bello

True

4.1

8.0

-1

3/5

0/0

6/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.744408945686901,
      "WHIP": 1.428115015974441,
      "IP": 104.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.519,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4134,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0351,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
      "walk_factor": 0.97,
      "homer_factor": 1.0553,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.328,
      "xwoba": 0.349,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 718,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678394",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 74.0,
            "Pitches": 327.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
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            "Pitches": 65.4
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "IP": 33.2,
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            "R": 12.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
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            "BB": 1.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9406,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.32673,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89109,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29703,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74257,
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          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 104.1,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.09265,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33546,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75719,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10543
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.3111,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.759,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.77,
          "final": 3.4444,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.356,
          "final": 0.7826,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 2.868,
          "final": 4.1923,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.158,
          "final": 0.0912,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3111,
          "final": 4.3111,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3961,
          "final": 1.3961,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
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        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 33.2,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 30,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 25,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 2.94059405940594,
        "WHIP": 1.1881188118811878,
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        "HR9": 0.0,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8254174732308466,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678394",
      "player_name": "Brayan Bello",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "direction": "no_change",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "direction": "deboost",
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5455,
        "runs_scored": 676.0,
        "runs_allowed": 591.0,
        "run_differential": 85.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5519,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3896,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8377,
        "offense_index": 0.9745,
        "defense_index": 1.1738,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -1.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1061
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 153,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6078,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
        "runs_allowed": 622.0,
        "run_differential": 78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5098,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5752,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0654,
        "offense_index": 1.0157,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 31.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2589
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1528,
        "offense_edge": -0.0255,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0157,
        "defense_strength": 0.1738,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9985,
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        "strikeout": 0.9942
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678394",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678394",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 451.0,
            "k_percent": 17.2,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.328,
            "xwoba": 0.349,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6626,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.738,
            "whiff_percent": 24.3,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0714,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4,
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            "bb_edge": 0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0779
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678394",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.24242479072493,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.3119619631498,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.24242479072493,
                "release_spin_rate": 2057.3119619631498,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.2424,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.312,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0779,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.5564,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4134,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0351,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "678394",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0351,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0351,
            "adjusted": 7
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.97,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0553,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9686,
            "adjusted": 3
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 73,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +11 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_BOS@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_BOS@TB

home

Freddy Peralta

True

5.2

-2

5/4

1/2

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.670886075949367,
      "WHIP": 1.3354430379746836,
      "IP": 158.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1274,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9892,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0023,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.326,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 26.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 359,
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    },
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      "effective_weights": {
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        },
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          },
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        },
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 153,
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        "win_pct": 0.6078,
        "runs_scored": 700.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5098,
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5455,
        "runs_scored": 676.0,
        "runs_allowed": 591.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5519,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
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        },
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      "edges": {
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      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0104,
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        "strikeout": 1.0066
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 665.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.3348,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.3115,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.2429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0326
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.26979962892744,
              "release_spin_rate": 2296.450901848495,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 84,
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                "release_speed": 89.26979962892744,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2698,
              "release_spin_rate": 2296.4509,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0326,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2327,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1274,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9892,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "642547",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9892,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0023,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_BOS@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_CHC@CIN

away

Matthew Boyd

True

6.0

5.0

-3

2/2

3/2

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.159883720930233,
      "WHIP": 1.2383720930232558,
      "IP": 114.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2611,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0222,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0358,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.313,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 225,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5506,
            "WHIP": 1.2472,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50562,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94382,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70787,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06742
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 257.0,
            "Pitches": 938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 25.7,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1649,
            "WHIP": 1.2606,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46277,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92553,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33511,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60638,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14362
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 114.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 56.0,
            "H": 107.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 89.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 474.0,
            "Pitches": 1796.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.65,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.35,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.45,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 89.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1599,
            "WHIP": 1.2384,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46221,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93314,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30523,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77616,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13081
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.943,
        "predicted_H": 5.703,
        "predicted_BB": 1.975,
        "predicted_SO": 4.446,
        "predicted_HR": 0.695,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3849,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2712
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.943,
          "final": 3.4023,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.703,
          "final": 4.094,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.975,
          "final": 2.4204,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.446,
          "final": 3.8177,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.695,
          "final": 0.8275,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3849,
          "final": 4.3849,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2712,
          "final": 1.2712,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.164893617021277,
        "WHIP": 1.2606382978723405,
        "K9": 5.457446808510639,
        "HR9": 1.2925531914893618,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9649641606123508,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5519,
        "runs_scored": 821.0,
        "runs_allowed": 680.0,
        "run_differential": 141.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9156,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3312,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4156,
        "offense_index": 1.1881,
        "defense_index": 1.0162,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1213
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4675,
        "runs_scored": 639.0,
        "runs_allowed": 791.0,
        "run_differential": -152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.987,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1494,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1364,
        "offense_index": 0.9248,
        "defense_index": 0.8736,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
          "run_differential": -44.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2186
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3399,
        "offense_edge": 0.1881,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0752,
        "defense_strength": 0.0162,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1264,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0171,
        "run_prevention": 0.9694,
        "strikeout": 1.0162
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 449.0,
            "k_percent": 18.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.313,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.624,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9892,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2171,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2557,
            "regression_edge": -0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2703
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.02421296885403,
              "release_spin_rate": 2216.2978149055507,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.02421296885403,
                "release_spin_rate": 2216.2978149055507,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0242,
              "release_spin_rate": 2216.2978,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2703,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.9309,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2611,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0222,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9663,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0358,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0222,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0222,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0358,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_CHC@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_CHC@CIN

home

Nick Lodolo

True

4.2

7.0

-1

8/6

3/2

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.120689655172414,
      "WHIP": 1.489655172413793,
      "IP": 96.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.088,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.804,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0683,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
      "walk_factor": 1.012,
      "homer_factor": 1.1207,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.375,
      "xwoba": 0.377,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 197,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.84,
            "WHIP": 1.68,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.76,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 90.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.68,
            "WHIP": 1.46,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 96.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 55.0,
            "H": 102.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 79.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 433.0,
            "Pitches": 1717.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8947,
            "R": 2.8947,
            "H": 5.3684,
            "BB": 2.2105,
            "SO": 4.1579,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.7895,
            "Pitches": 90.3684
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1207,
            "WHIP": 1.4897,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56897,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05517,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43448,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81724,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19655
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.054,
        "predicted_H": 5.28,
        "predicted_BB": 2.327,
        "predicted_SO": 4.326,
        "predicted_HR": 1.114,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4974,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5213
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
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      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 3.054,
          "final": 3.9064,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.28,
          "final": 6.4714,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.327,
          "final": 2.6218,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.326,
          "final": 5.4972,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 1.9401,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.4974,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5213,
          "final": 1.5213,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.68,
        "WHIP": 1.46,
        "K9": 7.38,
        "HR9": 1.98,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0278976712506485,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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    },
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          "pitcher_id": "666157",
          "player_name": "",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.6962749852693,
                "release_spin_rate": 2272.5171822682164,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.6963,
              "release_spin_rate": 2272.5172,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0087,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0621,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.804,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0683,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9611,
          "walk_factor": 1.012,
          "homer_factor": 1.1207,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "666157",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0683,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0683,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1207,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_CHC@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_DET@CHW

away

Jackson Jobe

True

5.0

6.0

3/4

2/1

6/9

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8942307692307696,
      "WHIP": 1.2692307692307694,
      "IP": 34.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.952,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.041,
      "sample_weight": 0.496,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0035,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9946,
      "walk_factor": 0.997,
      "homer_factor": 1.0156,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.337,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 287,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1154,
            "WHIP": 1.2308,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 148.0,
            "Pitches": 589.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1429,
            "R": 2.2857,
            "H": 4.4286,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 4.8571,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 21.1429,
            "Pitches": 84.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8942,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43269,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89423,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17308
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 34.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 148.0,
            "Pitches": 589.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1429,
            "R": 2.2857,
            "H": 4.4286,
            "BB": 1.8571,
            "SO": 4.8571,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 21.1429,
            "Pitches": 84.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8942,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43269,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89423,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98077,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17308
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.192,
        "predicted_H": 4.589,
        "predicted_BB": 2.043,
        "predicted_SO": 4.998,
        "predicted_HR": 0.794,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8312,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.288
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.192,
          "final": 1.5649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.589,
          "final": 3.7531,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.043,
          "final": 2.0204,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.998,
          "final": 5.5251,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.794,
          "final": 0.3763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8312,
          "final": 3.8312,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.288,
          "final": 1.288,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 34.2,
        "ER": 15,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.8942307692307696,
        "WHIP": 1.2692307692307694,
        "K9": 8.826923076923077,
        "HR9": 1.5576923076923077,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9347294020198794,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.474,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.513,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.013,
        "offense_index": 1.0015,
        "defense_index": 1.123,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1089
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5065,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": 33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2143,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6883,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.474,
        "offense_index": 1.0404,
        "defense_index": 1.0072,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0383
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1472,
        "offense_edge": 0.0015,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0404,
        "defense_strength": 0.123,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0072,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.008,
        "run_prevention": 0.9868,
        "strikeout": 1.0012
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695549",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695549",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 124.0,
            "k_percent": 23.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.8,
            "woba": 0.337,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4518,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6297,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2063,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0657,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1602
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695549",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.71263412879364,
              "release_spin_rate": 2452.621362567848,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.71263412879364,
                "release_spin_rate": 2452.621362567848,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.7126,
              "release_spin_rate": 2452.6214,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1602,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1445,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.041,
          "sample_weight": 0.496,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0035,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9946,
          "walk_factor": 0.997,
          "homer_factor": 1.0156,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "695549",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9985,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0077,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9973,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_DET@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_DET@CHW

home

Sean Burke

True

5.0

6.0

2/5

4/3

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4658385093167703,
      "WHIP": 1.1987577639751552,
      "IP": 161.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.24,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 1.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1123,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9905,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
      "walk_factor": 0.992,
      "homer_factor": 1.0119,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 20,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5714,
            "WHIP": 1.8095,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61905,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04762,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.7619,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90476,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09524
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 211.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.1,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0685,
            "WHIP": 1.3562,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45205,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49315,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08904,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10274
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 161.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 135.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 173.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 669.0,
            "Pitches": 2692.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0667,
            "R": 2.1667,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.9333,
            "SO": 5.7667,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 89.7333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4658,
            "WHIP": 1.1988,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38509,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83851,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36025,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07453,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1118
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.462,
        "predicted_H": 4.544,
        "predicted_BB": 2.675,
        "predicted_SO": 4.77,
        "predicted_HR": 0.518,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6172,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5039
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.462,
          "final": 1.862,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.544,
          "final": 3.5,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.675,
          "final": 3.2187,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.77,
          "final": 4.8644,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.518,
          "final": 0.7158,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6172,
          "final": 4.6172,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5039,
          "final": 1.5039,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.068493150684931,
        "WHIP": 1.356164383561644,
        "K9": 9.801369863013699,
        "HR9": 0.9246575342465754,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9565072602917444,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "player_name": "Sean Burke",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5065,
        "runs_scored": 722.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": 33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2143,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6883,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.474,
        "offense_index": 1.0404,
        "defense_index": 1.0072,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0383
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.474,
        "runs_scored": 695.0,
        "runs_allowed": 618.0,
        "run_differential": 77.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.513,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.013,
        "offense_index": 1.0015,
        "defense_index": 1.123,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1089
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1472,
        "offense_edge": 0.0404,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0015,
        "defense_strength": 0.0072,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.123,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9943,
        "run_prevention": 1.0069,
        "strikeout": 0.9955
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 624.0,
            "k_percent": 25.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.4734,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0033,
            "whiff_percent": 25.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.06,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2957,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0132
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.61500452964786,
              "release_spin_rate": 2513.1964166090206,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.61500452964786,
                "release_spin_rate": 2513.1964166090206,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.615,
              "release_spin_rate": 2513.1964,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0132,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0946,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1123,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9905,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0251,
          "walk_factor": 0.992,
          "homer_factor": 1.0119,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "680732",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9905,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.992,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0251,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_DET@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_KC@PIT

away

Noah Cameron

True

5.2

6.0

2/7

2/2

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.841683366733467,
      "WHIP": 1.190380761523046,
      "IP": 166.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.69,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0468,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.996,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 0.9989,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 71,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 1.0357,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 65.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 243.0,
            "Pitches": 952.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 24.3,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6447,
            "WHIP": 0.7766,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.18274,
            "H_per_IP": 0.50254,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27411,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86802,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04569
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 166.1,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 76.0,
            "H": 146.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 149.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 692.0,
            "Pitches": 2698.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4483,
            "R": 2.6207,
            "H": 5.0345,
            "BB": 1.7931,
            "SO": 5.1379,
            "HR": 0.5862,
            "BF": 23.8621,
            "Pitches": 93.0345
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8417,
            "WHIP": 1.1904,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42685,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87776,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31263,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89579,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1022
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.778,
        "predicted_H": 4.283,
        "predicted_BB": 1.872,
        "predicted_SO": 5.159,
        "predicted_HR": 0.561,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6828,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0318
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.778,
          "final": 1.4573,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.283,
          "final": 3.3421,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.872,
          "final": 1.9248,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.159,
          "final": 5.9178,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.561,
          "final": 0.7419,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6828,
          "final": 2.6828,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0318,
          "final": 1.0318,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 65.2,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 1.6446700507614211,
        "WHIP": 0.7766497461928934,
        "K9": 7.812182741116751,
        "HR9": 0.4111675126903553,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.6863604898924974,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4351,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 748.0,
        "run_differential": -100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6494,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2078,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
        "offense_index": 0.9378,
        "defense_index": 0.9238,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2048
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 738.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1753,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7922,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6169,
        "offense_index": 1.068,
        "defense_index": 0.9719,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0565
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2613,
        "offense_edge": -0.0622,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.068,
        "defense_strength": -0.0762,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0281,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9845,
        "run_prevention": 1.0316,
        "strikeout": 0.9867
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702070",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702070",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 664.0,
            "k_percent": 21.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6699,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9511,
            "whiff_percent": 26.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1021,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1229,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1721
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702070",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.77886182913517,
              "release_spin_rate": 2192.4719216717085,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.77886182913517,
                "release_spin_rate": 2192.4719216717085,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.7789,
              "release_spin_rate": 2192.4719,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1721,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.2291,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0468,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.996,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0057,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 0.9989,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "702070",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9989,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_KC@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_KC@PIT

home

Bubba Chandler

True

5.1

4.0

-4

-1

7/8

1/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.276018099547511,
      "WHIP": 1.350678733031674,
      "IP": 147.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.071,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0819,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
      "walk_factor": 1.054,
      "homer_factor": 0.9913,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.8,
      "bb_percent": 11.8,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 103,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 444.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 88.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84615,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 887.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 88.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3962,
            "WHIP": 1.1698,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37736,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79245,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37736,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88679,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07547
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 75.0,
            "SO": 132.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 636.0,
            "Pitches": 2519.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4138,
            "R": 2.7586,
            "H": 4.2759,
            "BB": 2.5862,
            "SO": 4.5517,
            "HR": 0.4828,
            "BF": 21.931,
            "Pitches": 86.8621
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.276,
            "WHIP": 1.3507,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47511,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84163,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50905,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89593,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09502
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.407,
        "predicted_H": 4.438,
        "predicted_BB": 2.181,
        "predicted_SO": 4.755,
        "predicted_HR": 0.625,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1433,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2661
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.407,
          "final": 3.0636,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.438,
          "final": 5.4939,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.181,
          "final": 1.6943,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.755,
          "final": 5.2681,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.625,
          "final": 0.3674,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1433,
          "final": 4.1433,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2661,
          "final": 1.2661,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.3962264150943393,
        "WHIP": 1.1698113207547167,
        "K9": 7.981132075471697,
        "HR9": 0.6792452830188679,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8762184259676298,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 0.02,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 0.02,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 738.0,
        "runs_allowed": 711.0,
        "run_differential": 27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1753,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7922,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6169,
        "offense_index": 1.068,
        "defense_index": 0.9719,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0565
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4351,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 748.0,
        "run_differential": -100.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6494,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2078,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8571,
        "offense_index": 0.9378,
        "defense_index": 0.9238,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2048
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2613,
        "offense_edge": 0.068,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0622,
        "defense_strength": -0.0281,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0762,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0121,
        "run_prevention": 0.9798,
        "strikeout": 1.0128
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696149",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696149",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 611.0,
            "k_percent": 20.8,
            "bb_percent": 11.8,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4871,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9628,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 46.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0181,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3521,
            "regression_edge": -0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": -0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696149",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.87397962331742,
              "release_spin_rate": 2334.780316578319,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.87397962331742,
                "release_spin_rate": 2334.780316578319,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.874,
              "release_spin_rate": 2334.7803,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0819,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.007,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
          "walk_factor": 1.054,
          "homer_factor": 0.9913,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "696149",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.007,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.054,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9913,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9771,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_KC@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_MIA@SD

away

Eury Pérez

True

5.0

4.2

-1

7/8

3/3

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.990762124711316,
      "WHIP": 1.2401847575057736,
      "IP": 144.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.346,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0604,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9949,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0429,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 1.0594,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.309,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 28.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.3077,
            "WHIP": 1.9846,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29231,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23077
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 956.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7848,
            "WHIP": 1.462,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53165,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94937,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51266,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96835,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09494
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.1,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 64.0,
            "SO": 155.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 602.0,
            "Pitches": 2457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3704,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 4.2593,
            "BB": 2.3704,
            "SO": 5.7407,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 22.2963,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9908,
            "WHIP": 1.2402,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44342,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79677,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44342,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12471
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.244,
        "predicted_H": 5.189,
        "predicted_BB": 2.685,
        "predicted_SO": 4.897,
        "predicted_HR": 0.784,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.9557,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6064
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.244,
          "final": 3.9745,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.189,
          "final": 5.9424,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.685,
          "final": 2.816,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.897,
          "final": 4.5239,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.784,
          "final": 0.4579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.9557,
          "final": 5.9557,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6064,
          "final": 1.6064,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.2,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 4.784810126582278,
        "WHIP": 1.462025316455696,
        "K9": 8.715189873417721,
        "HR9": 0.8544303797468353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0397394434025473,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691587",
      "player_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4935,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4351,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4221,
        "offense_index": 0.987,
        "defense_index": 1.0161,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0389
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5519,
        "runs_scored": 676.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2338,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3896,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1558,
        "offense_index": 0.9769,
        "defense_index": 1.0812,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 27.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2127
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2516,
        "offense_edge": -0.013,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0231,
        "defense_strength": 0.0161,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0812,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9913,
        "run_prevention": 1.0073,
        "strikeout": 0.9943
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691587",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691587",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 581.0,
            "k_percent": 25.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.309,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8908,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2578,
            "whiff_percent": 28.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0645,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3529,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.6444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5429,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1674
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691587",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.84068630513147,
              "release_spin_rate": 2524.944052474774,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.84068630513147,
                "release_spin_rate": 2524.944052474774,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8407,
              "release_spin_rate": 2524.9441,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1674,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1957,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0604,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9949,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0429,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 1.0594,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "691587",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9949,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0594,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0429,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_MIA@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_MIA@SD

home

Casey Mize

True

5.0

3.0

-6

5/5

2/5

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.1420911528150135,
      "IP": 124.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.181,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1144,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9903,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 1.0097,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 82,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 102.0,
            "Pitches": 374.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 74.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0448,
            "WHIP": 1.4776,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67164,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20896,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26866,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.53731,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31343
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 206.0,
            "Pitches": 779.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 77.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1702,
            "WHIP": 1.383,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57447,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10638,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2766,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6383,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19149
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 124.1,
            "ER": 51.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 111.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 107.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 510.0,
            "Pitches": 1938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.125,
            "R": 2.375,
            "H": 4.625,
            "BB": 1.2917,
            "SO": 4.4583,
            "HR": 0.5833,
            "BF": 21.25,
            "Pitches": 80.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6917,
            "WHIP": 1.1421,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41019,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89276,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24933,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86059,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1126
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.695,
        "predicted_H": 5.122,
        "predicted_BB": 1.348,
        "predicted_SO": 3.245,
        "predicted_HR": 1.019,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1485,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3736
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.695,
          "final": 2.824,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.122,
          "final": 5.0704,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.348,
          "final": 1.6237,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.245,
          "final": 2.7186,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.019,
          "final": 1.011,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1485,
          "final": 5.1485,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3736,
          "final": 1.3736,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 30,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.170212765957446,
        "WHIP": 1.3829787234042552,
        "K9": 5.744680851063829,
        "HR9": 1.7234042553191486,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0811210755059677,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "663554",
      "player_name": "Casey Mize",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5519,
        "runs_scored": 676.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2338,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3896,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1558,
        "offense_index": 0.9769,
        "defense_index": 1.0812,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 9,
          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 27.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2127
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4935,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 681.0,
        "run_differential": 2.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4351,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4221,
        "offense_index": 0.987,
        "defense_index": 1.0161,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0389
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2516,
        "offense_edge": -0.0231,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.013,
        "defense_strength": 0.0812,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0161,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.013,
        "run_prevention": 0.9772,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663554",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663554",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 484.0,
            "k_percent": 21.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.299,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9426,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0509,
            "whiff_percent": 23.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1713,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0157,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0017
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663554",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 77,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 77,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.88145097980791,
              "release_spin_rate": 2089.4625149385747,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 77,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.88145097980791,
                "release_spin_rate": 2089.4625149385747,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8815,
              "release_spin_rate": 2089.4625,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0017,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.012,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1144,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9903,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 1.0097,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "663554",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9903,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0097,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_MIA@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_MIL@BAL

away

Robert Gasser

True

5.0

7.0

-3

6/3

2/3

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.297577854671281,
      "WHIP": 1.2664359861591696,
      "IP": 96.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.056,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0085,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9993,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 0.9708,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 7.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 219,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 407.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 81.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5217,
            "WHIP": 1.3478,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3913,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82609,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52174,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04348
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 842.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.42,
            "WHIP": 1.26,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 96.1,
            "ER": 46.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 91.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 92.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 417.0,
            "Pitches": 1623.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4211,
            "R": 2.5263,
            "H": 4.7895,
            "BB": 1.6316,
            "SO": 4.8421,
            "HR": 0.7368,
            "BF": 21.9474,
            "Pitches": 85.4211
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2976,
            "WHIP": 1.2664,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47751,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94464,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3218,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95502,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14533
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.08,
        "predicted_H": 4.407,
        "predicted_BB": 1.998,
        "predicted_SO": 4.83,
        "predicted_HR": 0.447,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8357,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3122
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.08,
          "final": 2.045,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.407,
          "final": 5.1047,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.998,
          "final": 1.9989,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.83,
          "final": 5.3425,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.447,
          "final": 0.6892,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8357,
          "final": 3.8357,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3122,
          "final": 1.3122,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 49,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.42,
        "WHIP": 1.26,
        "K9": 8.82,
        "HR9": 0.72,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8811476712506486,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.1667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.1667,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.6234,
        "runs_scored": 798.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 198.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2857,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1818,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8961,
        "offense_index": 1.1503,
        "defense_index": 1.1562,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3669
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.487,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1753,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6753,
        "offense_index": 0.999,
        "defense_index": 0.9635,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0025
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3644,
        "offense_edge": 0.1503,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.001,
        "defense_strength": 0.1562,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0365,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0193,
        "run_prevention": 0.966,
        "strikeout": 1.011
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "688107",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "688107",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 394.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.2,
            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.944,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0391,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0047,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0286,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0832
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "688107",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.36534755962889,
              "release_spin_rate": 2277.9793761662236,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.36534755962889,
                "release_spin_rate": 2277.9793761662236,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3653,
              "release_spin_rate": 2277.9794,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0832,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5945,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0085,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9993,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9857,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 0.9708,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "688107",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9993,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9993,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9708,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9857,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_MIL@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_MIL@BAL

home

Trevor Rogers

True

6.0

8.0

-2

5/3

2/1

9/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.224101479915434,
      "WHIP": 1.2177589852008457,
      "IP": 157.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.631,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2156,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9817,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
      "walk_factor": 0.934,
      "homer_factor": 0.967,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.8,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 104,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.0938,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 246.0,
            "Pitches": 934.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1311,
            "WHIP": 1.082,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45902,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98361,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09836,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08197,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14754
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 157.2,
            "ER": 74.0,
            "R": 79.0,
            "H": 154.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 143.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 655.0,
            "Pitches": 2535.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6429,
            "R": 2.8214,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 1.3571,
            "SO": 5.1071,
            "HR": 0.6786,
            "BF": 23.3929,
            "Pitches": 90.5357
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2241,
            "WHIP": 1.2178,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46934,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97674,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24101,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12051
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.938,
        "predicted_H": 5.998,
        "predicted_BB": 0.989,
        "predicted_SO": 6.281,
        "predicted_HR": 0.961,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3549,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.151
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.938,
          "final": 2.9637,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.998,
          "final": 5.5848,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.989,
          "final": 1.4076,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 6.281,
          "final": 7.4067,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.961,
          "final": 1.3912,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3549,
          "final": 4.3549,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.151,
          "final": 1.151,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 4.131147540983607,
        "WHIP": 1.0819672131147542,
        "K9": 9.737704918032787,
        "HR9": 1.3278688524590163,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9567009499391732,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.487,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 720.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1753,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6753,
        "offense_index": 0.999,
        "defense_index": 0.9635,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0025
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 96,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.6234,
        "runs_scored": 798.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 198.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2857,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1818,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8961,
        "offense_index": 1.1503,
        "defense_index": 1.1562,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3669
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3644,
        "offense_edge": -0.001,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1503,
        "defense_strength": -0.0365,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1562,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9783,
        "run_prevention": 1.0459,
        "strikeout": 0.977
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669432",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669432",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 625.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.8,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.2365,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6992,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 53.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2735,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0971,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1571,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0353
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669432",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.22143098046523,
              "release_spin_rate": 2205.045117403977,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.22143098046523,
                "release_spin_rate": 2205.045117403977,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2214,
              "release_spin_rate": 2205.0451,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0353,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.252,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2156,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9817,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
          "walk_factor": 0.934,
          "homer_factor": 0.967,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669432",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9817,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9817,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.967,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_MIL@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_MIN@LAA

away

Joe Ryan

True

5.0

4/7

0/1

4/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.837905236907731,
      "WHIP": 1.1596009975062345,
      "IP": 133.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.347,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.165,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.986,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0246,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 1.0583,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.1,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 110,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 420.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.8,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.4857,
            "WHIP": 1.6714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "H_per_IP": 1.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.42857
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 906.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 90.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.4221,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16883,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25325,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05195,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23377
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 133.2,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 126.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 146.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 564.0,
            "Pitches": 2239.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.28,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.04,
            "BB": 1.16,
            "SO": 5.84,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.56,
            "Pitches": 89.56
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8379,
            "WHIP": 1.1596,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42643,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94264,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21696,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09227,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14963
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.296,
        "predicted_H": 6.034,
        "predicted_BB": 1.168,
        "predicted_SO": 4.606,
        "predicted_HR": 1.373,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.016,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4607
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 3.296,
          "final": 1.9103,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.034,
          "final": 5.1788,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.168,
          "final": 0.6769,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.606,
          "final": 4.3512,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.373,
          "final": 0.7957,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.016,
          "final": 6.016,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4607,
          "final": 1.4607,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 4.909090909090909,
        "WHIP": 1.4220779220779223,
        "K9": 9.467532467532468,
        "HR9": 2.103896103896104,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0527223465753242,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "player_name": "Joe Ryan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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    },
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          "pitcher_id": "657746",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "657746",
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 86,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
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  "provenance": {
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    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_MIN@LAA

home

Reid Detmers

True

6.0

5.0

-3

4/6

0/0

9/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
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    },
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      "fielding": {
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          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3831,
        "runs_scored": 619.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": -80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5195,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0195,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.539,
        "offense_index": 0.894,
        "defense_index": 0.9906,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1629
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4675,
        "runs_scored": 699.0,
        "runs_allowed": 770.0,
        "run_differential": -71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.461,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.539,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
        "offense_index": 1.0095,
        "defense_index": 0.8993,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -22.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.119
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0439,
        "offense_edge": -0.106,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0095,
        "defense_strength": -0.0094,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1007,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9976,
        "run_prevention": 1.0047,
        "strikeout": 0.9979
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 669.0,
            "k_percent": 28.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.27,
            "xwoba": 0.279,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.8382,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2156,
            "whiff_percent": 28.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5459,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7443,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.9286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1029
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.01397933596388,
              "release_spin_rate": 2233.9820878343417,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.01397933596388,
                "release_spin_rate": 2233.9820878343417,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.014,
              "release_spin_rate": 2233.9821,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1029,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.735,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4653,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9605,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.06,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.9769,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "672282",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9605,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9605,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.06,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_MIN@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_NYY@ARI

away

Cam Schlittler

True

6.1

6.0

-1

1/3

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.9494584837545128,
      "WHIP": 0.904332129963899,
      "IP": 184.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.957,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6955,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9409,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0783,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 0.9718,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.243,
      "xwoba": 0.263,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
      "whiff_percent": 29.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 487.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 97.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.8265,
            "WHIP": 0.7347,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.09184,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19388,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06122
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 955.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 8.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 95.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4595,
            "WHIP": 0.7946,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16216,
            "H_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30811,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34595,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06486
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 184.2,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 228.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 722.0,
            "Pitches": 2873.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2903,
            "R": 1.5161,
            "H": 3.9677,
            "BB": 1.4194,
            "SO": 7.3548,
            "HR": 0.5161,
            "BF": 23.2903,
            "Pitches": 92.6774
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9495,
            "WHIP": 0.9043,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21661,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66606,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23827,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23466,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08664
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.213,
        "predicted_H": 3.552,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
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      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
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            {
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              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          },
          {
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            "material": true
          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 153,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5817,
        "runs_scored": 706.0,
        "runs_allowed": 563.0,
        "run_differential": 143.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9346,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6144,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6797,
        "offense_index": 1.0279,
        "defense_index": 1.2199,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.289
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5195,
        "runs_scored": 680.0,
        "runs_allowed": 687.0,
        "run_differential": -7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0455,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4156,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.461,
        "offense_index": 0.9836,
        "defense_index": 1.0063,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.024
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.313,
        "offense_edge": 0.0279,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0164,
        "defense_strength": 0.2199,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0063,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0198,
        "run_prevention": 0.9597,
        "strikeout": 1.0107
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 670.0,
            "k_percent": 31.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.243,
            "xwoba": 0.263,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.8851,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8674,
            "whiff_percent": 29.1,
            "swing_percent": 52.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8527,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9721,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5857,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.84547033579747,
              "release_spin_rate": 2511.0300466287918,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.84547033579747,
                "release_spin_rate": 2511.0300466287918,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8455,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
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              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6955,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9409,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0783,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 0.9718,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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            "factor": 0.9409,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9409,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9718,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0783,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_NYY@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_NYY@ARI

home

Brandon Pfaadt

True

6.1

4.1

-6

-1

3/4

1/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.774193548387097,
      "WHIP": 1.1693548387096775,
      "IP": 124.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.039,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0027,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0002,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.948,
      "walk_factor": 0.932,
      "homer_factor": 0.9838,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.4,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.3,
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    "espn_rank": {
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      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-12T00:00:00"
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0455,
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        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9346,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9884
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694297",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694297",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.06584503374502,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 93,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0658,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3143,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0027,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0002,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.948,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "694297",
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0002,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_NYY@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_OAK@CLE

away

Jacob Lopez

True

4.2

2.2

-6

8/10

1/0

4/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.023255813953488,
      "WHIP": 1.4825581395348837,
      "IP": 114.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.818,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2835,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9759,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 1.038,
      "homer_factor": 0.9256,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 11.0,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 31.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 172,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 8.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 488.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 97.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3875,
            "WHIP": 1.3125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.975,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 949.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 94.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2727,
            "WHIP": 1.2182,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36364,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16364
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 114.2,
            "ER": 64.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 114.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 107.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 511.0,
            "Pitches": 2086.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.56,
            "R": 2.68,
            "H": 4.56,
            "BB": 2.24,
            "SO": 4.28,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.44,
            "Pitches": 83.44
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0233,
            "WHIP": 1.4826,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55814,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99419,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93314,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17442
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.644,
        "predicted_H": 5.269,
        "predicted_BB": 2.214,
        "predicted_SO": 5.581,
        "predicted_HR": 0.974,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1995,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3205
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 6.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.644,
          "final": 3.2141,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.269,
          "final": 6.4172,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.214,
          "final": 1.7036,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.581,
          "final": 4.9163,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.974,
          "final": 1.4054,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1995,
          "final": 4.1995,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3205,
          "final": 1.3205,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 3.272727272727273,
        "WHIP": 1.2181818181818183,
        "K9": 9.49090909090909,
        "HR9": 1.4727272727272727,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8635340348870123,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 8.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 8.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -3.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.475,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -3.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.475,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -3.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.475,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": -3.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.475,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.3961,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 880.0,
        "run_differential": -216.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4026,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3117,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7143,
        "offense_index": 0.96,
        "defense_index": 0.7859,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2951
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.513,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 641.0,
        "run_differential": -5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0325,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1299,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1623,
        "offense_index": 0.9196,
        "defense_index": 1.079,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0421
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3372,
        "offense_edge": -0.04,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0804,
        "defense_strength": -0.2141,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.079,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9833,
        "run_prevention": 1.0254,
        "strikeout": 0.9963
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682052",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682052",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 489.0,
            "k_percent": 20.9,
            "bb_percent": 11.0,
            "woba": 0.341,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 31.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 71.8316,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.4449,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
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          "league_medians": {
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            "k_percent": 22.0,
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            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.1907,
            "regression_edge": 1.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6143,
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            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682052",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
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              "release_speed": 84.00842291505728,
              "release_spin_rate": 2263.0128636281993,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.00842291505728,
                "release_spin_rate": 2263.0128636281993,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.0084,
              "release_spin_rate": 2263.0129,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2835,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9759,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 1.038,
          "homer_factor": 0.9256,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.051,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682052",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9759,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9759,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.038,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9256,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_OAK@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_OAK@CLE

home

Tanner Bibee

True

5.2

4.2

-3

2/12

0/0

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.1842105263157894,
      "IP": 177.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.72,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1555,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.2,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.307,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 92,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3704,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96296,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40741,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85185,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11111
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 933.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 93.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7829,
            "WHIP": 1.2514,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13714
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 177.1,
            "ER": 82.0,
            "R": 86.0,
            "H": 156.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 28.0,
            "BF": 730.0,
            "Pitches": 2779.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6452,
            "R": 2.7742,
            "H": 5.0323,
            "BB": 1.7419,
            "SO": 4.5161,
            "HR": 0.9032,
            "BF": 23.5484,
            "Pitches": 89.6452
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1617,
            "WHIP": 1.1842,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46241,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8797,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30451,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.964,
        "predicted_H": 5.298,
        "predicted_BB": 2.033,
        "predicted_SO": 4.759,
        "predicted_HR": 0.745,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7311,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3004
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.964,
          "final": 2.1613,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.298,
          "final": 3.9502,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.033,
          "final": 1.2021,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.759,
          "final": 4.8575,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.745,
          "final": 0.8492,
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7311,
          "final": 4.7311,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3004,
          "final": 1.3004,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.782857142857143,
        "WHIP": 1.2514285714285713,
        "K9": 7.405714285714286,
        "HR9": 1.2342857142857142,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0342548141077916,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 31.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 154,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.513,
        "runs_scored": 636.0,
        "runs_allowed": 641.0,
        "run_differential": -5.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0325,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1299,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1623,
        "offense_index": 0.9196,
        "defense_index": 1.079,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 9.0
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 154,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 93,
        "win_pct": 0.3961,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 880.0,
        "run_differential": -216.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.4026,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3117,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7143,
        "offense_index": 0.96,
        "defense_index": 0.7859,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2951
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3372,
        "offense_edge": -0.0804,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.04,
        "defense_strength": 0.079,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2141,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0175,
        "run_prevention": 0.9688,
        "strikeout": 1.0133
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676440",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676440",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.6766,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9127,
            "whiff_percent": 23.8,
            "swing_percent": 46.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.13,
            "command_and_miss": -0.155,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.425,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1379
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676440",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.38900262856957,
              "release_spin_rate": 2306.4645494421943,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.38900262856957,
                "release_spin_rate": 2306.4645494421943,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.389,
              "release_spin_rate": 2306.4645,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1379,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.985,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1555,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9771,
          "walk_factor": 0.966,
          "homer_factor": 1.0302,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "676440",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0132,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0132,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0302,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9771,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 10",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +10."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_OAK@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_PHI@NYM

away

Andrew Painter

True

5.1

3/4

1/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.540462427745665,
      "WHIP": 1.439306358381503,
      "IP": 115.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.016,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1063,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.009,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9834,
      "walk_factor": 0.988,
      "homer_factor": 1.0109,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.342,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 184,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 1.1333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 863.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 86.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4713,
            "WHIP": 1.2611,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49682,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85987,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40127,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13376
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 115.1,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 100.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 507.0,
            "Pitches": 1948.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.087,
            "R": 3.087,
            "H": 5.3478,
            "BB": 1.8696,
            "SO": 4.3478,
            "HR": 0.8261,
            "BF": 22.0435,
            "Pitches": 84.6957
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5405,
            "WHIP": 1.4393,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61561,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06647,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37283,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86705,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16474
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.557,
        "predicted_H": 5.056,
        "predicted_BB": 1.98,
        "predicted_SO": 5.259,
        "predicted_HR": 0.651,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1216,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.26
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.557,
          "final": 2.32,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.056,
          "final": 4.1813,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.98,
          "final": 1.5631,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.259,
          "final": 5.1488,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.651,
          "final": 0.7995,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1216,
          "final": 4.1216,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.26,
          "final": 1.26,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.471337579617835,
        "WHIP": 1.2611464968152868,
        "K9": 8.598726114649683,
        "HR9": 1.2038216560509556,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9994518113780372,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5519,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 656.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.461,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2597,
        "offense_index": 0.9911,
        "defense_index": 1.0566,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0337
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4545,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2792,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.539,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
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        "available": true,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0566,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0095,
        "run_prevention": 0.9787,
        "strikeout": 1.0085
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691725",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691725",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 479.0,
            "k_percent": 19.7,
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            "woba": 0.342,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.0032,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2006,
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            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0857,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.021
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691725",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.22586081019104,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.8906226156996,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.22586081019104,
                "release_spin_rate": 2309.8906226156996,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2259,
              "release_spin_rate": 2309.8906,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.021,
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.1497,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1063,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.009,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9834,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "691725",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.009,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.009,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.988,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0109,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9834,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_PHI@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_PHI@NYM

home

Christian Scott

True

5.0

4.2

-1

5/6

0/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "woba": 0.301,
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      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 26.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 96,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "player_id": "681035",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
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            "BF": 113.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "H": 3.6,
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            "SO": 5.8,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07407,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18519
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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            "R": 2.5,
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            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
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            "H_per_IP": 0.83766,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.20779,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0974
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 45.0,
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            "SO": 127.0,
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            "Pitches": 1885.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
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            "R": 2.0455,
            "H": 3.9545,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7595,
            "WHIP": 1.2627,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.82595,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.2057,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 4.051,
        "predicted_BB": 2.171,
        "predicted_SO": 5.616,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.4209,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2278
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.051,
          "final": 4.4574,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.4209,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "H": 43,
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        "SO": 62,
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        "K9": 10.87012987012987,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9886801387831162,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681035",
      "player_name": "Christian Scott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 84,
        "win_pct": 0.4545,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 699.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2792,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2597,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.539,
        "offense_index": 0.9464,
        "defense_index": 0.9916,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1078
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5519,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 656.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.461,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2597,
        "offense_index": 0.9911,
        "defense_index": 1.0566,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0337
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1415,
        "offense_edge": -0.0536,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0089,
        "defense_strength": -0.0084,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0566,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9944,
        "run_prevention": 1.0065,
        "strikeout": 0.9965
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681035",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681035",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 431.0,
            "k_percent": 28.0,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2497,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.017,
            "whiff_percent": 26.7,
            "swing_percent": 49.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3094,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4157,
            "regression_edge": 0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2429,
            "bb_edge": -0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0107
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681035",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04250977863983,
              "release_spin_rate": 2346.428940384509,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04250977863983,
                "release_spin_rate": 2346.428940384509,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0425,
              "release_spin_rate": 2346.4289,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0107,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0764,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2937,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.975,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.044,
          "walk_factor": 1.022,
          "homer_factor": 0.9517,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "681035",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.975,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.975,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.022,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9517,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.044,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_PHI@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_SEA@COL

away

Bryce Miller

True

5.0

5.1

-5

5/4

6/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.192546583850932,
      "WHIP": 1.15527950310559,
      "IP": 107.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.386,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2519,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9786,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.016,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 0.9673,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 165,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 3.6,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2537,
            "WHIP": 1.791,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98507,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.80597,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26866
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 885.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5235,
            "WHIP": 1.5302,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72483,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02685,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50336,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8255,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24161
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 107.1,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 90.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 437.0,
            "Pitches": 1704.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.85,
            "Pitches": 85.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1925,
            "WHIP": 1.1553,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46584,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83851,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31677,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98758,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.222,
        "predicted_H": 4.68,
        "predicted_BB": 2.681,
        "predicted_SO": 4.481,
        "predicted_HR": 1.077,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.0236,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5291
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.222,
          "final": 3.9945,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.68,
          "final": 4.819,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.681,
          "final": 4.1231,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.481,
          "final": 5.141,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.077,
          "final": 1.478,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.0236,
          "final": 6.0236,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5291,
          "final": 1.5291,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 6.523489932885906,
        "WHIP": 1.5302013422818792,
        "K9": 7.429530201342282,
        "HR9": 2.174496644295302,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.23704532225736,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 6.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 6.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4675,
        "runs_scored": 629.0,
        "runs_allowed": 684.0,
        "run_differential": -55.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0844,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4416,
        "offense_index": 0.9099,
        "defense_index": 1.0107,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0714
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3636,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 899.0,
        "run_differential": -178.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1558,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6818,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8377,
        "offense_index": 1.0429,
        "defense_index": 0.769,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 1,
          "losses": 9,
          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
          "run_differential": -36.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3975
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3261,
        "offense_edge": -0.0901,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0429,
        "defense_strength": 0.0107,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.231,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0116,
        "run_prevention": 0.9895,
        "strikeout": 1.0064
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 412.0,
            "k_percent": 24.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0106,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9924,
            "whiff_percent": 25.5,
            "swing_percent": 54.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2672,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2379,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0409
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.58215170763988,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.667278351319,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.58215170763988,
                "release_spin_rate": 2154.667278351319,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5822,
              "release_spin_rate": 2154.6673,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0409,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2923,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2519,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9786,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.016,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.9673,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "682243",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9786,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9786,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9673,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 6,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_SEA@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_SEA@COL

home

Jose Quintana

True

4.1

4.0

-1

-2

6/5

2/1

3/2

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.2682926829268295,
      "WHIP": 1.5121951219512195,
      "IP": 41.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 1.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3559,
      "sample_weight": 0.676,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0302,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9424,
      "walk_factor": 1.0041,
      "homer_factor": 1.0118,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 11.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.364,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 300,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6164383561643836,
        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "500779",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 11.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 99.0,
            "Pitches": 359.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.8,
            "Pitches": 71.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5588,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "H_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26471,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48529,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 41.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 181.0,
            "Pitches": 687.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8889,
            "SO": 2.2222,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.1111,
            "Pitches": 76.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2683,
            "WHIP": 1.5122,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09756,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41463,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.4878,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14634
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 41.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 181.0,
            "Pitches": 687.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.8889,
            "SO": 2.2222,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 20.1111,
            "Pitches": 76.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2683,
            "WHIP": 1.5122,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58537,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09756,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41463,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.4878,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14634
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.663,
        "predicted_H": 5.18,
        "predicted_BB": 1.593,
        "predicted_SO": 3.019,
        "predicted_HR": 0.579,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1357,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4514
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5009,
      "form_weight": 0.4991,
      "form_reliability": 0.6429,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 9.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6429,
        "prior_weight": 0.3571
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.663,
          "final": 3.8335,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.18,
          "final": 5.5907,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.593,
          "final": 1.7969,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.019,
          "final": 3.0095,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.579,
          "final": 0.7899,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1357,
          "final": 5.1357,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4514,
          "final": 1.4514,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 41.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 20,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.268292682926829,
        "WHIP": 1.5121951219512193,
        "K9": 4.390243902439024,
        "HR9": 1.3170731707317072,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 9,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 9,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-05-24T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0953854761286974,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 9.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6429,
          "prior_weight": 0.3571
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "500779",
      "player_name": "Jose Quintana",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.5667,
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 98,
        "win_pct": 0.3636,
        "runs_scored": 721.0,
        "runs_allowed": 899.0,
        "run_differential": -178.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1558,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6818,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8377,
        "offense_index": 1.0429,
        "defense_index": 0.769,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 1,
          "losses": 9,
          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.5,
          "run_differential": -36.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3975
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4675,
        "runs_scored": 629.0,
        "runs_allowed": 684.0,
        "run_differential": -55.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3571,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0844,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4416,
        "offense_index": 0.9099,
        "defense_index": 1.0107,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0714
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3261,
        "offense_edge": 0.0429,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0901,
        "defense_strength": -0.231,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0107,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9836,
        "run_prevention": 1.025,
        "strikeout": 0.9974
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "500779",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "500779",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 169.0,
            "k_percent": 11.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.364,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.1486,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1591,
            "whiff_percent": 21.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5888,
            "command_and_miss": -0.9171,
            "regression_edge": 0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5571,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2284
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "500779",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.77334602720302,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.1807952255701,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.77334602720302,
                "release_spin_rate": 2007.1807952255701,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.7733,
              "release_spin_rate": 2007.1808,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2284,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6313,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3559,
          "sample_weight": 0.676,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0302,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9424,
          "walk_factor": 1.0041,
          "homer_factor": 1.0118,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "500779",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0204,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0204,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0028,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9611,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_SEA@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_SF@LAD

away

Yunior Marte

True

5.0

4.2

-1

6/8

2/3

3/2

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.4545454545454546,
      "WHIP": 1.090909090909091,
      "IP": 14.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0152,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0013,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.974,
      "walk_factor": 1.0099,
      "homer_factor": 1.0139,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.286,
      "xwoba": 0.291,
      "barrel_percent": 9.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 704,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805074",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 3,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 59.0,
            "Pitches": 215.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.3333,
            "R": 1.3333,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 19.6667,
            "Pitches": 71.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61364,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 59.0,
            "Pitches": 215.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.3333,
            "R": 1.3333,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 19.6667,
            "Pitches": 71.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61364,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 3,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 59.0,
            "Pitches": 215.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.3333,
            "R": 1.3333,
            "H": 3.3333,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 19.6667,
            "Pitches": 71.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4545,
            "WHIP": 1.0909,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40909,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61364,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13636
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.1,
        "predicted_H": 4.34,
        "predicted_BB": 1.942,
        "predicted_SO": 4.077,
        "predicted_HR": 0.719,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7796,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2562
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6141,
      "form_weight": 0.3859,
      "form_reliability": 0.375,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.375,
        "prior_weight": 0.625
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.1,
          "final": 4.4948,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.34,
          "final": 5.3593,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.942,
          "final": 1.9776,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.077,
          "final": 2.8016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.719,
          "final": 0.8916,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7796,
          "final": 3.7796,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2562,
          "final": 1.2562,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "insufficient_data"
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 3,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8876902999934493,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.375,
          "prior_weight": 0.625
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805074",
      "player_name": "Yunior Marte",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.4156,
        "runs_scored": 651.0,
        "runs_allowed": 727.0,
        "run_differential": -76.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4935,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2273,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7208,
        "offense_index": 0.9408,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6104,
        "runs_scored": 767.0,
        "runs_allowed": 582.0,
        "run_differential": 185.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9805,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7792,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3109
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.443,
        "offense_edge": -0.0592,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1084,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9765,
        "run_prevention": 1.0443,
        "strikeout": 0.978
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805074",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 39.0,
            "k_percent": 15.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.286,
            "xwoba": 0.291,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.442,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6855,
            "whiff_percent": 21.6,
            "swing_percent": 45.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
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            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2797,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6557,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4857,
            "bb_edge": -0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0692
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.6157894736842,
              "release_spin_rate": 1846.7786502546687,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.6157894736842,
                "release_spin_rate": 1846.7786502546687,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6158,
              "release_spin_rate": 1846.7787,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0692,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.4943,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0152,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0013,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.974,
          "walk_factor": 1.0099,
          "homer_factor": 1.0139,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "805074",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0006,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0006,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0045,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9883,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_SF@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_SF@LAD

home

Tarik Skubal

True

6.1

5.0

-4

0/8

2/2

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 0.9545454545454546,
      "IP": 146.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.111,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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    "savant": {
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      "bb_percent": 4.4,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.267,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
      "whiff_percent": 31.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
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            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
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            "BB": 5.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.15152,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15152,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0303
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "SO": 75.0,
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            "Pitches": 947.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "HR": 0.3,
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            "Pitches": 94.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.76562,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.17188,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04688
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 44.0,
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            "H": 115.0,
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            "SO": 173.0,
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            "Pitches": 2195.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 91.4583
          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.78409,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.17955,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08864
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.979,
        "predicted_H": 5.211,
        "predicted_BB": 1.362,
        "predicted_SO": 7.202,
        "predicted_HR": 0.417,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7813,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0267
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.979,
          "final": 1.1422,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 5.211,
          "final": 3.0076,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.362,
          "final": 1.6318,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 7.202,
          "final": 7.1166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.417,
          "final": 0.2407,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7813,
          "final": 2.7813,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0267,
          "final": 1.0267,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 64.0,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 75,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.53125,
        "WHIP": 0.984375,
        "K9": 10.546875,
        "HR9": 0.421875,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7742726712506486,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 0,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 0.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
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            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6104,
        "runs_scored": 767.0,
        "runs_allowed": 582.0,
        "run_differential": 185.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.2013,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9805,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7792,
        "offense_index": 1.1084,
        "defense_index": 1.189,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.6,
          "run_differential": 30.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3109
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.4156,
        "runs_scored": 651.0,
        "runs_allowed": 727.0,
        "run_differential": -76.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4935,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2273,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7208,
        "offense_index": 0.9408,
        "defense_index": 0.9518,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1321
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.443,
        "offense_edge": 0.1084,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0592,
        "defense_strength": 0.189,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0482,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0258,
        "run_prevention": 0.9495,
        "strikeout": 1.018
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 545.0,
            "k_percent": 30.2,
            "bb_percent": 4.4,
            "woba": 0.262,
            "xwoba": 0.267,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.3985,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5206,
            "whiff_percent": 31.3,
            "swing_percent": 53.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8407,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0771,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9,
            "bb_edge": 1.175,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1534
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.59144562340002,
              "release_spin_rate": 2171.5084296609316,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.59144562340002,
                "release_spin_rate": 2171.5084296609316,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5914,
              "release_spin_rate": 2171.5084,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1534,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.096,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7489,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9363,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0829,
          "walk_factor": 0.906,
          "homer_factor": 0.9404,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669373",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9363,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9363,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.906,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9404,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0829,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 8",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +8."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_SF@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_TOR@TEX

away

José Soriano

True

6.0

5.0

-3

7/4

2/1

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.561023622047244,
      "WHIP": 1.2696850393700787,
      "IP": 169.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.644,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0003,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
      "walk_factor": 1.022,
      "homer_factor": 1.0033,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.322,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 28.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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          "games": 5,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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        },
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.90857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32571,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75429,
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.561,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.84449,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.93898,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09449
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "final": 3.332,
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        },
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          "form": 5.528,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.097,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.342,
          "final": 4.342,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.283,
          "final": 1.283,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 24,
        "H": 53,
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        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.702857142857143,
        "WHIP": 1.2342857142857142,
        "K9": 6.788571428571428,
        "HR9": 0.6171428571428571,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-14T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.91232624267922,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4935,
        "runs_scored": 620.0,
        "runs_allowed": 663.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2792,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.026,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3052,
        "offense_index": 0.8973,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 645.0,
        "runs_allowed": 678.0,
        "run_differential": -33.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2143,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4026,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.1027,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0422,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0192,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0006,
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        "strikeout": 1.0028
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 675.0,
            "k_percent": 22.5,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.322,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0069,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9255,
            "whiff_percent": 28.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
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            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.92,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.041,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1621,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5286,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.1549
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.61843785982516,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.023111038004,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.61843785982516,
                "release_spin_rate": 2057.023111038004,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6184,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.0231,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 1.1068,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0003,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "667755",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_TOR@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_TOR@TEX

home

Cal Quantrill

True

6.0

1.1

-14

-1

1/0

0/0

9/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8987730061349692,
      "WHIP": 1.049079754601227,
      "IP": 108.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.381,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0343,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0029,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9491,
      "walk_factor": 0.932,
      "homer_factor": 0.9893,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.277,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 19.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 90,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
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      },
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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        {
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "615698",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "615698",
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            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "available": false,
            "player_id": "615698",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0029,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0029,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.932,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9893,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9491,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 0,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -14 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_TOR@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_WAS@STL

away

Andrew Alvarez

True

5.2

6.0

-1

3/5

1/1

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3529411764705883,
      "WHIP": 1.2745098039215685,
      "IP": 102.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.022,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.004,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0003,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0109,
      "walk_factor": 1.038,
      "homer_factor": 0.9824,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.2,
      "bb_percent": 11.0,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
      "whiff_percent": 25.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 59,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.1111,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25926,
            "H_per_IP": 0.59259,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11111,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 809.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 80.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.717,
            "WHIP": 1.1132,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30189,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64151,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4717,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86792,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0566
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 102.0,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 83.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 99.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 427.0,
            "Pitches": 1664.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6522,
            "R": 1.6522,
            "H": 3.6087,
            "BB": 2.0435,
            "SO": 4.3043,
            "HR": 0.2174,
            "BF": 18.5652,
            "Pitches": 72.3478
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3529,
            "WHIP": 1.2745,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37255,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81373,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46078,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97059,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04902
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.75,
        "predicted_H": 3.723,
        "predicted_BB": 2.458,
        "predicted_SO": 5.16,
        "predicted_HR": 0.409,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0114,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1822
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.75,
          "final": 1.4309,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.723,
          "final": 3.4154,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.458,
          "final": 1.8377,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.16,
          "final": 5.0919,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.409,
          "final": 0.235,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0114,
          "final": 3.0114,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1822,
          "final": 1.1822,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 34,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.7169811320754715,
        "WHIP": 1.113207547169811,
        "K9": 7.81132075471698,
        "HR9": 0.5094339622641508,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-12T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7983882372883845,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "674841",
      "player_name": "Andrew Alvarez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 154,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4675,
        "runs_scored": 787.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0714,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1104,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.039,
        "offense_index": 1.1389,
        "defense_index": 0.8905,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 75,
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        "win_pct": 0.487,
        "runs_scored": 694.0,
        "runs_allowed": 716.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1429,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5065,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6494,
        "offense_index": 1.0043,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0986
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0797,
        "offense_edge": 0.1389,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0043,
        "defense_strength": -0.1095,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0349,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9997,
        "run_prevention": 1.0077,
        "strikeout": 1.002
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "674841",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "674841",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 385.0,
            "k_percent": 23.2,
            "bb_percent": 11.0,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.4582,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.7,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.0171,
            "regression_edge": -0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1,
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            "whiff_edge": 0.1,
            "bb_edge": -0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.148
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "674841",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2091,
              "release_spin_rate": 2496.4984,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.148,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0569,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.004,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0003,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0109,
          "walk_factor": 1.038,
          "homer_factor": 0.9824,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "674841",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.038,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9824,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0109,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_WAS@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260919

20260919_WAS@STL

home

Michael McGreevy

True

5.2

4.0

-5

3/5

3/1

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.825,
      "WHIP": 1.24375,
      "IP": 160.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.517,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5472,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0465,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.944,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 1.09,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.349,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 20.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 88,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "report_date": "20260919",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4643,
            "WHIP": 1.3571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 912.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 91.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7115,
            "WHIP": 1.5385,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63462,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13462,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40385,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78846,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11538
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 160.0,
            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 73.0,
            "H": 154.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 112.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 658.0,
            "Pitches": 2594.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3448,
            "R": 2.5172,
            "H": 5.3103,
            "BB": 1.5517,
            "SO": 3.8621,
            "HR": 0.6897,
            "BF": 22.6897,
            "Pitches": 89.4483
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.825,
            "WHIP": 1.2437,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.425,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.172,
        "predicted_H": 5.662,
        "predicted_BB": 2.085,
        "predicted_SO": 4.344,
        "predicted_HR": 0.585,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1276,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3917
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.172,
          "final": 2.689,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.662,
          "final": 4.5649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.085,
          "final": 2.4621,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.344,
          "final": 5.4387,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.585,
          "final": 0.3439,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1276,
          "final": 5.1276,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3917,
          "final": 1.3917,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 59,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.711538461538462,
        "WHIP": 1.5384615384615385,
        "K9": 7.096153846153846,
        "HR9": 1.0384615384615385,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-13T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.145907286635264,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.487,
        "runs_scored": 694.0,
        "runs_allowed": 716.0,
        "run_differential": -22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1429,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5065,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6494,
        "offense_index": 1.0043,
        "defense_index": 0.9651,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 154,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4675,
        "runs_scored": 787.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": 11.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0714,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1104,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.039,
        "offense_index": 1.1389,
        "defense_index": 0.8905,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0189
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0797,
        "offense_edge": 0.0043,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1389,
        "defense_strength": -0.0349,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1095,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9902,
        "run_prevention": 1.0297,
        "strikeout": 0.9865
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700241",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700241",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "bb_percent": 6.8,
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            "xwoba": 0.349,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.917,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6712,
            "whiff_percent": 20.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 134.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.3115,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5993,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.574,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4464,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0714,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5143,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.1566
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700241",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.05458051854275,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.9564952408964,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.05458051854275,
                "release_spin_rate": 2203.9564952408964,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0546,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.9565,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1566,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1188,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5472,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0465,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.944,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 1.09,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "700241",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0465,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0465,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.09,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260919_WAS@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}