Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260917 · dates 20260917 · generated 2026-09-18T09:00:15.688501+00:00

4-5

Winner picks · 44.4%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

10/18

Starter ER within ±1

9/18

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260917	9	9	0	4	5	9	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	9	applied games: 9formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	9	available games: 9
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	9	variance multipliers: [1.95]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	9	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	9	configured window: 10last 10 games: 9observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	9	settled games: 9metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1016.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	5	53.2%	40.0%	13.2%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	4	56.4%	50.0%	6.3%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	9	2.0863	2.1738	3.5824	44.4%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	9	2.0556	2.1111	3.6667	44.4%	-0.0307	0.0843
enhanced_prediction	9	1.8889	2.0	3.5556	44.4%	-0.1974	-0.0268
embedded_savant_run_environment	9	1.9444	2.1111	3.4444	44.4%	-0.1419	-0.138
fundamental_edge_target_review	9	1.9444	2.1111	3.4444	44.4%	-0.1419	-0.138
capped_target	9	1.9444	2.1111	3.4444	44.4%	-0.1419	-0.138
simulation_result	9	1.9444	2.1111	3.4444	44.4%	-0.1419	-0.138
published_final	9	1.9444	2.1111	3.4444	44.4%	-0.1419	-0.138

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 9,
  "team_run_mae": 2.0556,
  "total_run_mae": 2.1111,
  "margin_mae": 3.6667,
  "winner_hits": 4,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4444,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0307,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0843
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	5	2	0	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.8276	-0.3795	1.4481	2.2071	5	4	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.8276,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.3795,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.4481,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.2071,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=4

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	-1.0	3.0	5.0	4	3	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	4	1	0	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.8574	-0.1675	0.6899	1.0249	4	3	1	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 5.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.8574,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.1675,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6899,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0249,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.525, 0.550)	4	2	2	0.5
[0.550, 0.600)	4	2	2	0.5
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260917	9	0.546	9.6667	0.4444

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260917",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "mean_confidence": 0.546,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.6667,
      "accuracy": 0.4444
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=9

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	9	4	5	0.4444

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 9,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.4444
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260917_BOS@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreBOS 3 - 4 TEX

Final confidence55.4%

Calibrationraw 51.6% → blended 53.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=537

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4844

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.914752526083741-4.294231334888258	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.107654,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.553827,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.553827,
    "away_win_probability": 0.446173
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.107654,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.5538271,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.515643,
    "sample_size": 537,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5605,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.538072,
    "published_confidence": 0.553827,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8487,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.192,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4844
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02782958621783928
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02721072487221344
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025763282306331143
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02539840233085832
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02519037046240246
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.062152898951609525,
      "1": 0.0967732434897355,
      "2": 0.1309805414770644,
      "3": 0.15410468516127676,
      "4": 0.15760953235935865,
      "5": 0.14012211864179125,
      "6": 0.10829003319225736,
      "7": 0.0727491385930194,
      "8": 0.04248394135086082,
      "9": 0.02156648277244458,
      "10": 0.009516810503532435,
      "11": 0.003650573507049138
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08094788291185205,
      "1": 0.12425608332129583,
      "2": 0.1611476282598728,
      "3": 0.1765729889635498,
      "4": 0.16346271650365285,
      "5": 0.12785191810792967,
      "6": 0.08448699753668486,
      "7": 0.04717007838720629,
      "8": 0.022250378952988394,
      "9": 0.0088675228998855,
      "10": 0.0029858041550819246
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 TEX",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0607,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.262,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
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      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.192,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4844
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2034,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2034,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.4844,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.8487,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.042,
          "home_runs": 3.661,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5525
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.028988946116151795
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02830986919483285
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.026724879712035486
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.026326074834141802
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.0260988393942967
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06032345453638649,
          "1": 0.09619984601661746,
          "2": 0.13235225547705923,
          "3": 0.1570931013870841,
          "4": 0.16086133849606576,
          "5": 0.14210685875912132,
          "6": 0.1083046737118564,
          "7": 0.07121117540545772,
          "8": 0.04039409731658891,
          "9": 0.019767714399866992,
          "10": 0.008345719913111468,
          "11": 0.0030397645807839968
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07920504630423832,
          "1": 0.12443000956397995,
          "2": 0.16365694255854812,
          "3": 0.18021077275109698,
          "4": 0.16613612669080896,
          "5": 0.1282284609783959,
          "6": 0.08285940209827418,
          "7": 0.04482663894382791,
          "8": 0.020303344128392287,
          "9": 0.007699029627100806,
          "10": 0.0024442263553365526
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.914752526083741,
      "home_runs": 4.294231334888258,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260917_DET@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreDET 5 - 4 CHW

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 62.2% → blended 58.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=711

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4415

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.539175304673057-4.382892917253516	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.621631,
    "sample_size": 711,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5513,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.586465,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.6,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.227,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.84,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4415
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01855903836692272
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01828284009526387
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01800203342549417
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017734124581287668
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017115502532334438
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04913437063928829,
      "1": 0.07724741553809605,
      "2": 0.10763398065164283,
      "3": 0.13291736698594034,
      "4": 0.14547251270939682,
      "5": 0.14110650479351375,
      "6": 0.1213053658795933,
      "7": 0.09242295991732932,
      "8": 0.06240891285377956,
      "9": 0.037349108941857063,
      "10": 0.019809830345098946,
      "11": 0.00931211114071798,
      "12": 0.003879559603745794
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.032596368939015075,
      "1": 0.051885443345732404,
      "2": 0.07503160147236967,
      "3": 0.09857465755556019,
      "4": 0.11765454664638415,
      "5": 0.12757762976155632,
      "6": 0.12567900117176492,
      "7": 0.11247947706876242,
      "8": 0.09145474296022425,
      "9": 0.06755563104508785,
      "10": 0.04533558807479403,
      "11": 0.027640082109452884,
      "12": 0.015309527277181384,
      "13": 0.007703828564349414,
      "14": 0.003521874007765086
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0837,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.77,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4415,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5715,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4415,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.84,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0837,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
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        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.85,
        "new_value": 1.95,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T23:36:27.547991+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-17T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.419311,
      "confidence": 0.580689,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
          "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
          "parameters": {
            "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
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    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260917_KC@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreKC 4 - 5 HOU

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 54.7% → blended 55.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=351

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1181

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.5001138263343368-5.667644383228045	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.059062,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.529531,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.529531,
    "away_win_probability": 0.470469
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.059062,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.5295314649999999,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.546744,
    "sample_size": 351,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5613,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.554022,
    "published_confidence": 0.529531,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3454,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.304,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1181
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023835578333997708
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022950895284493376
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022671544683595248
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02195584335559507
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021830065991255386
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.056810144494762516,
      "1": 0.0888036744888463,
      "2": 0.12162303185789829,
      "3": 0.1459420900375677,
      "4": 0.15343524968701663,
      "5": 0.1413349514808999,
      "6": 0.11406537976831099,
      "7": 0.08065624033983383,
      "8": 0.04996914799485743,
      "9": 0.027123501983671718,
      "10": 0.01289939749286869,
      "11": 0.005374931533554635,
      "12": 0.001962258839911263
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05915043151254876,
      "1": 0.0923003123989013,
      "2": 0.12575020282705598,
      "3": 0.1495803300174473,
      "4": 0.15534616968798548,
      "5": 0.1408597396900687,
      "6": 0.1115150498950846,
      "7": 0.0770797600756245,
      "8": 0.0465165497858748,
      "9": 0.024509525594056992,
      "10": 0.01127515666475559,
      "11": 0.004528668531672962,
      "12": 0.001588103318923217
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 HOU",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.011,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 7,
        "max": 10,
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            "home_margin": 2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "HOU",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 675,
          "runs_allowed": 729,
          "run_differential": -54,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.35526315789473684,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "KC",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.4407894736842105,
          "runs_scored": 641,
          "runs_allowed": 734,
          "run_differential": -93,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.6118421052631579,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2566,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0592,
        "quality_edge": 0.1181,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3454,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.3454,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.304,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1181
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.0248938097192511
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05499158360778172,
          "1": 0.08806189519631337,
          "2": 0.12267494838929761,
          "3": 0.1486619396504467,
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          "5": 0.14371952766577745,
          "6": 0.11465364247875183,
          "7": 0.07956755017982589,
          "8": 0.04803526286064565,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.057406597030747866,
          "1": 0.09175986088353821,
          "2": 0.1271212128445112,
          "3": 0.1526362357999649,
          "4": 0.15884428895411898,
          "5": 0.1432715306795576,
          "6": 0.11200116366078396,
          "7": 0.07588562356742566,
          "8": 0.04456263035824795,
          "9": 0.02268070063346815,
          "10": 0.01000498526025927,
          "11": 0.003825170327376389
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.5001138263343368,
      "home_runs": 5.667644383228045,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260917_LAD@CIN

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 9 - 5 CIN

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 88.8% → blended 72.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=233

H2H base featurehome net -17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.9288

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.8404756001383555-4.011015037037004	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	9-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	9-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	9-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	9-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 9-5",
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 9,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 9 - 5 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.888096,
    "sample_size": 233,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5536,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.720848,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0981,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0981,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -13.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -2.3191,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.204,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.9288
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.01336744264200959
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.013047159084434722
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "probability": 0.01287941486345342
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      {
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        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.012857005199560057
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 9,
        "probability": 0.0125708244380129
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.035226788691975444,
      "1": 0.05595938883989819,
      "2": 0.08043451548828204,
      "3": 0.10461200274012163,
      "4": 0.12310910156519388,
      "5": 0.13108964466976789,
      "6": 0.1263037338719276,
      "7": 0.11011172644117054,
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      "9": 0.06199791347533426,
      "10": 0.040040841217663554,
      "11": 0.023399085875710105,
      "12": 0.012372691050392076,
      "13": 0.00591969082519091,
      "14": 0.0025627335835177053
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.012731136976455922,
      "1": 0.02059974617469859,
      "2": 0.03129072791308219,
      "3": 0.044619898915639875,
      "4": 0.059731114301060755,
      "5": 0.07506401154648461,
      "6": 0.08855682597490634,
      "7": 0.09807796208425577,
      "8": 0.10197176653948481,
      "9": 0.09952852582141204,
      "10": 0.09119569108724507,
      "11": 0.07844408197497155,
      "12": 0.06334395409689424,
      "13": 0.048018575609993626,
      "14": 0.0341721650786474,
      "15": 0.022829417835053385,
      "16": 0.014317800169680022,
      "17": 0.008429792323704176,
      "18": 0.004659255997986297,
      "19": 0.00241754957834331
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAD 9 - 5 CIN",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAD 9 - 5 CIN",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0587,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.414,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.9288,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 9,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.9288,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.204,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0587,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 10,
        "median": 13,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.85,
        "new_value": 1.95,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T15:36:47.648813+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-17T16:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.289359,
      "confidence": 0.710641,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 8,
        "total_runs": 13
      },
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    },
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    },
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      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 9,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260917_MIL@PIT

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 6 - 4 PIT

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 78.9% → blended 67.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.8% · weight 50.0% · n=347

H2H base featurehome net -12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1696

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.140166611835451-4.201057581156119	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 6 - 4 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.788943,
    "sample_size": 347,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5677,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.678321,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.375,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.788,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1696
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
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            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.788943,
        "sample_size": 347,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5677,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.678321
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      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
        "final_confidence": 0.6601,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6601,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.967945,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.1232,
        "calibration_sample_size": 347,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5677,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5644,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1696,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.339911,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.343682,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.967945,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.341797,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.658203
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 19,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -12.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0692,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "PIT",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.4934210526315789,
          "runs_scored": 723,
          "runs_allowed": 702,
          "run_differential": 21,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.13815789473684212,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 95,
          "losses": 57,
          "win_pct": 0.625,
          "runs_scored": 788,
          "runs_allowed": 588,
          "run_differential": 200,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3157894736842106,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1776,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1316,
        "quality_edge": -1.1696,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.375,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.375,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.788,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.1696
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.4912,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.4912,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.1696,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.375,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 7.329,
          "home_runs": 2.603,
          "home_win_probability": 0.0983
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.017170150969054783
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          {
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            "probability": 0.01710722073452655
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.045742357260385766,
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          "2": 0.10506759502220808,
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          "10": 0.019903242272162214,
          "11": 0.009221504628075491,
          "12": 0.0037713869901210076
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.02064668658439516,
          "1": 0.03399566108175121,
          "2": 0.051479618503611345,
          "3": 0.07169450194309902,
          "4": 0.09182799197551895,
          "5": 0.10816905271522431,
          "6": 0.11718436432842622,
          "7": 0.11675487250022272,
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          "9": 0.09015749045775164,
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          "11": 0.049806202319349305,
          "12": 0.0326499326882294,
          "13": 0.019684294565396877,
          "14": 0.010914305951831174,
          "15": 0.005565588533133926,
          "16": 0.002610145820049173
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.140166611835451,
      "home_runs": 4.201057581156119,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260917_MIN@LAA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 4 - 3 LAA

Final confidence51.6%

Calibrationraw 50.4% → blended 52.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=676

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0786

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.523232382729424-3.8925059176420462	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.032962,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.516481,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.483519,
    "away_win_probability": 0.516481
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.032962,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.5164809475000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.50365,
    "sample_size": 676,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5518,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.527725,
    "published_confidence": 0.516481,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0205,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0205,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1612,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.524,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0786
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.033926630350249516
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03216398254546607
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03197443036360562
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03031320851788241
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030025327595027157
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.09070355618379784,
      "1": 0.13817535581466528,
      "2": 0.17515364706848285,
      "3": 0.18475240216880845,
      "4": 0.1621598444554674,
      "5": 0.11843467168456592,
      "6": 0.0719774933264298,
      "7": 0.03639962349527713,
      "8": 0.015317199931823644,
      "9": 0.005363449389430246,
      "10": 0.0015627564812514879
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0891998760486428,
      "1": 0.13604542076786236,
      "2": 0.17306638500099475,
      "3": 0.18363295931194834,
      "4": 0.16251657484590099,
      "5": 0.11996479191315014,
      "6": 0.07386166037404408,
      "7": 0.037930925900095946,
      "8": 0.01624714059533352,
      "9": 0.005804563279212216,
      "10": 0.0017297019628150173
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 LAA",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0339,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4073,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0786,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5165,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5803,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5165,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0786,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.524,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0339,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260917_OAK@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreOAK 4 - 7 TB

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 82.9% → blended 68.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.7% · weight 50.0% · n=267

H2H base featurehome net 18.0 · absolute 18.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.6832

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.021880554592869-5.686272153855294	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 TB",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.829468,
    "sample_size": 267,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5468,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.688134,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 18.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
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    "home_run_delta": 0.1038,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.829468,
        "sample_size": 267,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5468,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
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        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.654,
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        "score_gap": 2.0582,
        "calibration_sample_size": 267,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5468,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5439,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.6832,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 7
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          "margin": 3,
          "probability_before": 0.654022,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.726962,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.958947,
          "side_flipped": false,
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          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 27,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
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        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 18.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 18.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.6,
        "home_run_delta": 0.1038,
        "away_run_delta": -0.1038,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 8.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 151,
          "wins": 92,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.609271523178808,
          "runs_scored": 688,
          "runs_allowed": 617,
          "run_differential": 71,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.47019867549668876,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "OAK",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 61,
          "losses": 91,
          "win_pct": 0.40131578947368424,
          "runs_scored": 660,
          "runs_allowed": 865,
          "run_differential": -205,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.3486842105263157,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8189,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.208,
        "quality_edge": 1.6832,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.1308,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.1308,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.852,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.6832
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 2.6931,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 2.6931,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.6832,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.1308,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 0.0,
          "home_runs": 10.277,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.021880554592869,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260917_PHI@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scorePHI 3 - 4 NYM

Final confidence54.4%

Calibrationraw 58.6% → blended 56.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=620

H2H base featurehome net 6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3119

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.273186805008134-4.71946397588761	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.088366,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.544183,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.544183,
    "away_win_probability": 0.455817
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.088366,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.5441830425,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5864,
    "sample_size": 620,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5516,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.569,
    "published_confidence": 0.544183,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.6349,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.288,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3119
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.023456122301995647
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023332880160078246
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02280091418806993
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022681114612247734
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02139605538043559
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04881714962638893,
      "1": 0.07676695353152176,
      "2": 0.1070408953152438,
      "3": 0.13234230621420703,
      "4": 0.14508456185466284,
      "5": 0.14103186376123394,
      "6": 0.12155891821930526,
      "7": 0.09290304452092953,
      "8": 0.06295737400584432,
      "9": 0.0378300401462881,
      "10": 0.02015582309510191,
      "11": 0.009522211256483806,
      "12": 0.0039888584527887575
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06757393525595073,
      "1": 0.10479752995779071,
      "2": 0.14016394563080042,
      "3": 0.1616720759407373,
      "4": 0.160822625521327,
      "5": 0.1379662034684647,
      "6": 0.10207319571168098,
      "7": 0.06512746029338629,
      "8": 0.03583686463714272,
      "9": 0.01700627910513016,
      "10": 0.006959884477589046
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0675,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.358,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3119,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.5442,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5336,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5442,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3119,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.288,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0675,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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    },
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    },
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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  ]
}

20260917_SD@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreSD 8 - 5 COL

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 88.9% → blended 73.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 58.5% · weight 50.0% · n=130

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.5039

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.5295340651482405-3.8808032369315995	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.889379,
        "sample_size": 130,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5846,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.73699
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.54,
        "final_confidence": 0.6993,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.6993,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.920946,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.7648,
        "calibration_sample_size": 130,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5846,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5743,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.5039,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 8,
            "home_runs": 5
          },
          "margin": -3,
          "probability_before": 0.300726,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.273038,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.920946,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.300726,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.699274
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 22,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": -0.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 56,
          "losses": 96,
          "win_pct": 0.3684210526315789,
          "runs_scored": 715,
          "runs_allowed": 885,
          "run_differential": -170,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.118421052631579,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 83,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.5460526315789473,
          "runs_scored": 659,
          "runs_allowed": 636,
          "run_differential": 23,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.1513157894736842,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.2697,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1776,
        "quality_edge": -1.5039,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.5362,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.5362,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.444,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.5039
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -2.4062,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -2.4062,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": -1.5039,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.5362,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 10.004,
          "home_runs": 0.952,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.06266411827785079,
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          "3": 0.11729921041799847,
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          "5": 0.13942474269538294,
          "6": 0.12820367098767058,
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          "13": 0.002966231060189023
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "2": 0.03633241412773605,
          "3": 0.05212727880486878,
          "4": 0.06960535649815154,
          "5": 0.0865021854516194,
          "6": 0.1000502797802621,
          "7": 0.1077001590538286,
          "8": 0.10789993713240575,
          "9": 0.10060807706196222,
          "10": 0.08730745218269606,
          "11": 0.07051420127022244,
          "12": 0.05300400384470471,
          "13": 0.03708066997745491,
          "14": 0.024143113594605685,
          "15": 0.014630049408912422,
          "16": 0.008250972081975571,
          "17": 0.004330831153344148,
          "18": 0.0021156518224268468
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.5295340651482405,
      "home_runs": 3.8808032369315995,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260917	20260917_BOS@TEX	TEX	55.4%	51.6%	56.0%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.515643, "sample_size": 537, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5605, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.538072, "published_confidence": 0.553827, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8487, "recent_quality_edge": 0.192, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4844 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02782958621783928 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02721072487221344 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025763282306331143 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02539840233085832 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02519037046240246 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.062152898951609525, "1": 0.0967732434897355, "2": 0.1309805414770644, "3": 0.15410468516127676, "4": 0.15760953235935865, "5": 0.14012211864179125, "6": 0.10829003319225736, "7": 0.0727491385930194, "8": 0.04248394135086082, "9": 0.02156648277244458, "10": 0.009516810503532435, "11": 0.003650573507049138 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08094788291185205, "1": 0.12425608332129583, "2": 0.1611476282598728, "3": 0.1765729889635498, "4": 0.16346271650365285, "5": 0.12785191810792967, "6": 0.08448699753668486, "7": 0.04717007838720629, "8": 0.022250378952988394, "9": 0.0088675228998855, "10": 0.0029858041550819246 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0607, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.262, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4844, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260917	20260917_DET@CHW	DET	53.0%	62.2%	55.1%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	1-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.8437)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.621631, "sample_size": 711, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5513, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.586465, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 0.6, "home_run_delta": 0.0173, "away_run_delta": -0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.227, "recent_quality_edge": -0.84, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4415 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01855903836692272 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01828284009526387 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01800203342549417 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017734124581287668 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017115502532334438 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04913437063928829, "1": 0.07724741553809605, "2": 0.10763398065164283, "3": 0.13291736698594034, "4": 0.14547251270939682, "5": 0.14110650479351375, "6": 0.1213053658795933, "7": 0.09242295991732932, "8": 0.06240891285377956, "9": 0.037349108941857063, "10": 0.019809830345098946, "11": 0.00931211114071798, "12": 0.003879559603745794 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.032596368939015075, "1": 0.051885443345732404, "2": 0.07503160147236967, "3": 0.09857465755556019, "4": 0.11765454664638415, "5": 0.12757762976155632, "6": 0.12567900117176492, "7": 0.11247947706876242, "8": 0.09145474296022425, "9": 0.06755563104508785, "10": 0.04533558807479403, "11": 0.027640082109452884, "12": 0.015309527277181384, "13": 0.007703828564349414, "14": 0.003521874007765086 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 5 - 4 CHW", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0837, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.77, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4415, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260917	20260917_KC@HOU	HOU	53.0%	54.7%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.546744, "sample_size": 351, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5613, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.554022, "published_confidence": 0.529531, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3454, "recent_quality_edge": -0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1181 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023835578333997708 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022950895284493376 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022671544683595248 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02195584335559507 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021830065991255386 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.056810144494762516, "1": 0.0888036744888463, "2": 0.12162303185789829, "3": 0.1459420900375677, "4": 0.15343524968701663, "5": 0.1413349514808999, "6": 0.11406537976831099, "7": 0.08065624033983383, "8": 0.04996914799485743, "9": 0.027123501983671718, "10": 0.01289939749286869, "11": 0.005374931533554635, "12": 0.001962258839911263 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05915043151254876, "1": 0.0923003123989013, "2": 0.12575020282705598, "3": 0.1495803300174473, "4": 0.15534616968798548, "5": 0.1408597396900687, "6": 0.1115150498950846, "7": 0.0770797600756245, "8": 0.0465165497858748, "9": 0.024509525594056992, "10": 0.01127515666475559, "11": 0.004528668531672962, "12": 0.001588103318923217 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 HOU", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.011, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.234, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.75, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1181, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260917	20260917_LAD@CIN	LAD	56.0%	88.8%	55.4%	50.0%	9.0-5.0	8-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.888096, "sample_size": 233, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5536, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.720848, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -17.0, "absolute_net_margin": 17.0, "home_average_margin": -3.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0981, "away_run_delta": 0.0981, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -13.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.3191, "recent_quality_edge": -1.204, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.9288 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01336744264200959 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.013047159084434722 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01287941486345342 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.012857005199560057 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.0125708244380129 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.035226788691975444, "1": 0.05595938883989819, "2": 0.08043451548828204, "3": 0.10461200274012163, "4": 0.12310910156519388, "5": 0.13108964466976789, "6": 0.1263037338719276, "7": 0.11011172644117054, "8": 0.08686014166385428, "9": 0.06199791347533426, "10": 0.040040841217663554, "11": 0.023399085875710105, "12": 0.012372691050392076, "13": 0.00591969082519091, "14": 0.0025627335835177053 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.012731136976455922, "1": 0.02059974617469859, "2": 0.03129072791308219, "3": 0.044619898915639875, "4": 0.059731114301060755, "5": 0.07506401154648461, "6": 0.08855682597490634, "7": 0.09807796208425577, "8": 0.10197176653948481, "9": 0.09952852582141204, "10": 0.09119569108724507, "11": 0.07844408197497155, "12": 0.06334395409689424, "13": 0.048018575609993626, "14": 0.0341721650786474, "15": 0.022829417835053385, "16": 0.014317800169680022, "17": 0.008429792323704176, "18": 0.004659255997986297, "19": 0.00241754957834331 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAD 9 - 5 CIN", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAD 9 - 5 CIN", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0587, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.414, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.9288, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 9, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260917	20260917_MIL@PIT	MIL	56.0%	78.9%	56.8%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	4-7	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.788943, "sample_size": 347, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5677, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.678321, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": -2.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0692, "away_run_delta": 0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.375, "recent_quality_edge": -0.788, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1696 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01644168339852683 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01638450796069867 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01611982209960144 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01606376592433539 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015239213158185785 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04755016476529515, "1": 0.07484572794693252, "2": 0.10466024581419073, "3": 0.13001582838412482, "4": 0.1434863035516719, "5": 0.14067742523187154, "6": 0.12252878233375866, "7": 0.09480943695524492, "8": 0.06517255698824714, "9": 0.0397995073942927, "10": 0.021591875940785578, "11": 0.010406454721750058, "12": 0.004455689971834287 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02206907786189367, "1": 0.03542019912855705, "2": 0.05250748235539165, "3": 0.07189435254492337, "4": 0.09092257860137086, "5": 0.10620674434405428, "6": 0.11458712777143844, "7": 0.114188654632101, "8": 0.1051026010274973, "9": 0.08935263344459864, "10": 0.07016243208528283, "11": 0.05088681837632375, "12": 0.03408861421963258, "13": 0.02109195228185967, "14": 0.012053900407478025, "15": 0.006362705215826668, "16": 0.003102125701770253 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 4 PIT", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 4 PIT", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0615, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.138, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1696, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260917	20260917_MIN@LAA	MIN	51.6%	50.4%	55.2%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	4-5	miss	Variance Applied (0.3693)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.50365, "sample_size": 676, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5518, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.527725, "published_confidence": 0.516481, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0205, "away_run_delta": 0.0205, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1612, "recent_quality_edge": 0.524, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0786 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.033926630350249516 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03216398254546607 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03197443036360562 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03031320851788241 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030025327595027157 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.09070355618379784, "1": 0.13817535581466528, "2": 0.17515364706848285, "3": 0.18475240216880845, "4": 0.1621598444554674, "5": 0.11843467168456592, "6": 0.0719774933264298, "7": 0.03639962349527713, "8": 0.015317199931823644, "9": 0.005363449389430246, "10": 0.0015627564812514879 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0891998760486428, "1": 0.13604542076786236, "2": 0.17306638500099475, "3": 0.18363295931194834, "4": 0.16251657484590099, "5": 0.11996479191315014, "6": 0.07386166037404408, "7": 0.037930925900095946, "8": 0.01624714059533352, "9": 0.005804563279212216, "10": 0.0017297019628150173 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0339, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.4073, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0786, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260917	20260917_OAK@TB	TB	58.0%	82.9%	54.7%	50.0%	4.0-7.0	1-10	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.829468, "sample_size": 267, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5468, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.688134, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 18.0, "absolute_net_margin": 18.0, "home_average_margin": 3.6, "home_run_delta": 0.1038, "away_run_delta": -0.1038, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.1308, "recent_quality_edge": 0.852, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.6832 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015965896820559072 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015939036773710127 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0158985595582449 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015871812795481454 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01478336156845054 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.021555582562640337, "1": 0.034609808873777494, "2": 0.05136736311088514, "3": 0.07047319777694726, "4": 0.08937361391490595, "5": 0.10477153224821623, "6": 0.11353399140270641, "7": 0.11372531590815295, "8": 0.1053021000606475, "9": 0.090129206590925, "10": 0.07130872943767944, "11": 0.05215170166247741, "12": 0.03525680095331874, "13": 0.022032610597305737, "14": 0.012727340079082885, "15": 0.006796072036066175, "16": 0.0033544933349567412, "17": 0.001530539449308195 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04525607260385821, "1": 0.0713578749439451, "2": 0.10030135668869879, "3": 0.12568155926763325, "4": 0.1403899975398044, "5": 0.1397978931189334, "6": 0.12409804493749324, "7": 0.09820398391295403, "8": 0.06927764673866887, "9": 0.04356693431000042, "10": 0.024424221414108778, "11": 0.012206307581425522, "12": 0.00543810694247607 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 7 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0515, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.202, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6832, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260917	20260917_PHI@NYM	NYM	54.4%	58.6%	55.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	3-0	miss	Variance Applied (0.5537)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5864, "sample_size": 620, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5516, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.569, "published_confidence": 0.544183, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": 1.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0346, "away_run_delta": -0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.6349, "recent_quality_edge": 0.288, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3119 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023456122301995647 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023332880160078246 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02280091418806993 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022681114612247734 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02139605538043559 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04881714962638893, "1": 0.07676695353152176, "2": 0.1070408953152438, "3": 0.13234230621420703, "4": 0.14508456185466284, "5": 0.14103186376123394, "6": 0.12155891821930526, "7": 0.09290304452092953, "8": 0.06295737400584432, "9": 0.0378300401462881, "10": 0.02015582309510191, "11": 0.009522211256483806, "12": 0.0039888584527887575 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06757393525595073, "1": 0.10479752995779071, "2": 0.14016394563080042, "3": 0.1616720759407373, "4": 0.160822625521327, "5": 0.1379662034684647, "6": 0.10207319571168098, "7": 0.06512746029338629, "8": 0.03583686463714272, "9": 0.01700627910513016, "10": 0.006959884477589046 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0675, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.358, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3119, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260917	20260917_SD@COL	SD	54.0%	88.9%	58.5%	50.0%	8.0-5.0	9-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.889379, "sample_size": 130, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5846, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.73699, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.5362, "recent_quality_edge": -1.444, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.5039 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.014350216883424013 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014325008624382565 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01395243244286683 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013927922950492232 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.013428530754799613 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.040322266032198316, "1": 0.063807309020606, "2": 0.0906602030487802, "3": 0.1156601376907551, "4": 0.13248645573242895, "5": 0.13626365020305128, "6": 0.12583727773535838, "7": 0.10434205119092464, "8": 0.07768375052530395, "9": 0.051930410934724634, "10": 0.03116980555854867, "11": 0.01679837168737006, "12": 0.008128698942657041, "13": 0.0035317963337931314, "14": 0.0013778153634996543 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.015408159253914328, "1": 0.024869617610889502, "2": 0.037496775052933445, "3": 0.05281109685433825, "4": 0.0694804973198344, "5": 0.08539001887606773, "6": 0.0980297198029832, "7": 0.10512714581648416, "8": 0.10531214202790141, "9": 0.09854815084425879, "10": 0.08614398800272383, "11": 0.0703409011253293, "12": 0.05365341163971372, "13": 0.03822902464738481, "14": 0.025444595646837216, "15": 0.015819922442063986, "16": 0.00918797081209548, "17": 0.00498472638120422, "18": 0.0025262103035179053, "19": 0.001195925539524479 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 8 - 5 COL", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 8 - 5 COL", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0643, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.654, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5039, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.2778, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
R	{ "mae": 1.6111, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.6111 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.7222, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.4444, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.1111 }
HR	{ "mae": 1.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2222 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 4.2222, "mae_innings": 1.4074, "bias_outs": 3.0 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260917

20260917_BOS@TEX

away

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

6.1

6/3

1/3

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.7574468085106383,
      "WHIP": 1.1680851063829787,
      "IP": 156.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.802,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0707,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.994,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9891,
      "walk_factor": 0.95,
      "homer_factor": 0.9877,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 15,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6129,
            "WHIP": 1.2258,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93548,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29032,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96774,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 254.0,
            "Pitches": 903.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 90.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0984,
            "WHIP": 1.2787,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34426,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98361,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29508,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90164,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.2,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 49.0,
            "H": 141.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 636.0,
            "Pitches": 2295.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7778,
            "R": 1.8148,
            "H": 5.2222,
            "BB": 1.5556,
            "SO": 5.1852,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 23.5556,
            "Pitches": 85.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7574,
            "WHIP": 1.1681,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30638,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26809,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89362,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09574
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.079,
        "predicted_H": 5.767,
        "predicted_BB": 1.827,
        "predicted_SO": 5.651,
        "predicted_HR": 0.534,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0822,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2509
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.079,
          "final": 2.0461,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.767,
          "final": 5.8639,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.827,
          "final": 1.483,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.651,
          "final": 4.5482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.534,
          "final": 0.3119,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0822,
          "final": 3.0822,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2509,
          "final": 1.2509,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 21,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 55,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.098360655737705,
        "WHIP": 1.278688524590164,
        "K9": 8.114754098360656,
        "HR9": 0.7377049180327869,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8488744424735861,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.1667,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5395,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5395,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3947,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8553,
        "offense_index": 0.9762,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0995
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.25,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1776,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4276,
        "offense_index": 0.928,
        "defense_index": 1.0167,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0045
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.095,
        "offense_edge": -0.0238,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.072,
        "defense_strength": 0.1677,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0167,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0117,
        "run_prevention": 0.967,
        "strikeout": 1.0086
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 606.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9378,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 47.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1522,
            "command_and_miss": 0.03,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2714,
            "bb_edge": 0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1365
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.41342480383189,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.8766778176932,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.41342480383189,
                "release_spin_rate": 2501.8766778176932,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4134,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.8767,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1365,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9747,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0707,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.994,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9891,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "543243",
            "espn_id": 32082,
            "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 15,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 15,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 305,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 54,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 7,
              "era_value": 2.7574,
              "era_rank": 8.0,
              "w_value": 17.0,
              "w_rank": 1,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 146,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 156.2,
              "ip_rank": 43,
              "h_value": 141.0,
              "h_rank": 42,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 125,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 100,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 83,
              "k_value": 140.0,
              "k_rank": 49,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.042553,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.168,
              "whip_rank": 21.0,
              "war_value": 3.97,
              "war_rank": 12.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.994,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9877,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 6
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_BOS@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_BOS@TEX

home

Tyler Alexander

True

5.0

1.0

-12

-1

3/0

0/1

1/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3749999999999996,
      "WHIP": 1.275,
      "IP": 66.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 68,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.25,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.25,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4509,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9617,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9709,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 0.8764,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.275,
      "barrel_percent": 3.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.4,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 230,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 66.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.375,
      "season_WHIP": 1.275,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.497,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7297,
        "prior_weight": 0.2703
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641302",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 68,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.2,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 5.0,
            "Pitches": 17.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.1667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 47.0,
            "Pitches": 175.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.0,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.3,
            "SO": 0.8,
            "HR": 0.1,
            "BF": 4.7,
            "Pitches": 17.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0909,
            "WHIP": 1.1818,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45455,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90909,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72727,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09091
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 68,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 66.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.285,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.855,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 2.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.243,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "final": 1.2356,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9848291791365245,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641302",
      "player_name": "Tyler Alexander",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.25,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1776,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4276,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5395,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5395,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3947,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8553,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0995
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.072,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0238,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 0.9993,
        "strikeout": 0.9991
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 277.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.275,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.4,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.802,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 18,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 18,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.20540065553065,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 18,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.2054,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1481,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.0579,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4509,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Tyler Alexander",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 230,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 230,
              "gp_value": 68.0,
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              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 3.375,
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              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 157,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 338,
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              "hld_value": 13.0,
              "hld_rank": 52,
              "ip_value": 66.2,
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              "h_value": 66.0,
              "h_rank": 187,
              "er_value": 25.0,
              "er_rank": 254,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 457,
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              "k_value": 57.0,
              "k_rank": 263,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.695,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.275,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.68,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
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            "factor": 0.9617,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
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      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 72,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -12 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_BOS@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_DET@CHW

away

Framber Valdez

True

6.0

5.0

-3

5/3

5/4

8/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.014256619144603,
      "WHIP": 1.3625254582484725,
      "IP": 163.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.644,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2234,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.019,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 1.0021,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
      "whiff_percent": 19.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 130,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9348,
            "WHIP": 1.2391,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91304,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32609,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48913,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06522
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 244.0,
            "Pitches": 896.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.4464,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01786,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 163.2,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 82.0,
            "H": 163.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 121.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 713.0,
            "Pitches": 2591.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5172,
            "R": 2.8276,
            "H": 5.6207,
            "BB": 2.069,
            "SO": 4.1724,
            "HR": 0.5172,
            "BF": 24.5862,
            "Pitches": 89.3448
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0143,
            "WHIP": 1.3625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44603,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99593,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3666,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09165
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.357,
        "predicted_H": 5.655,
        "predicted_BB": 2.165,
        "predicted_SO": 3.699,
        "predicted_HR": 0.489,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6309,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3382
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.357,
          "final": 2.622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.655,
          "final": 5.385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.165,
          "final": 3.3334,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.699,
          "final": 4.2352,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.489,
          "final": 0.2875,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6309,
          "final": 3.6309,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3382,
          "final": 1.3382,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
        "WHIP": 1.4464285714285714,
        "K9": 5.464285714285714,
        "HR9": 0.6428571428571429,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9384309413026259,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4737,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 76.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4934,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9934,
        "offense_index": 0.9982,
        "defense_index": 1.1273,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.3,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1087
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5066,
        "runs_scored": 711.0,
        "runs_allowed": 677.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2237,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6776,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4539,
        "offense_index": 1.0391,
        "defense_index": 1.0107,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0371
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1458,
        "offense_edge": -0.0018,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0391,
        "defense_strength": 0.1273,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0107,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0081,
        "run_prevention": 0.9862,
        "strikeout": 1.0012
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664285",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664285",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 684.0,
            "k_percent": 17.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3095,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6238,
            "whiff_percent": 19.7,
            "swing_percent": 47.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0993,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5514,
            "regression_edge": -0.1714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0915
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664285",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.2158276222486,
              "release_spin_rate": 2283.7780946197977,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.2158276222486,
                "release_spin_rate": 2283.7780946197977,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2158,
              "release_spin_rate": 2283.7781,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0915,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6537,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2234,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.019,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9411,
          "walk_factor": 0.986,
          "homer_factor": 1.0021,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664285",
            "espn_id": 36581,
            "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 130,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 130,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 268,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 27,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 17,
              "era_value": 4.0142,
              "era_rank": 34.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 35,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 22,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 163.2,
              "ip_rank": 30,
              "h_value": 163.0,
              "h_rank": 11,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 25,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 100,
              "bb_value": 60.0,
              "bb_rank": 18,
              "k_value": 121.0,
              "k_rank": 73,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.653768,
              "k_per_9_rank": 65,
              "whip_value": 1.3625,
              "whip_rank": 41.0,
              "war_value": 1.42,
              "war_rank": 38.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.019,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.019,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0021,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9411,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 123,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_DET@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_DET@CHW

home

Erick Fedde

True

4.2

-4

5/4

2/2

3/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3391521197007483,
      "IP": 133.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3955,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0336,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9257,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 1.0443,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.328,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.0,
      "whiff_percent": 18.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 99,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607200",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 93.0,
            "Pitches": 386.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 18.6,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.5,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04167
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 149.0,
            "Pitches": 598.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 14.9,
            "Pitches": 59.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2202,
            "WHIP": 1.1835,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3578,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85321,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33028,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.63303,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11009
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 133.2,
            "ER": 59.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 131.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 572.0,
            "Pitches": 2260.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.9032,
            "R": 2.1613,
            "H": 4.2258,
            "BB": 1.5484,
            "SO": 2.9355,
            "HR": 0.7419,
            "BF": 18.4516,
            "Pitches": 72.9032
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9726,
            "WHIP": 1.3392,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4414,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98005,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3591,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6808,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17207
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.372,
        "predicted_H": 3.531,
        "predicted_BB": 1.475,
        "predicted_SO": 2.862,
        "predicted_HR": 0.429,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.867,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1622
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.372,
          "final": 2.8547,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
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          "final": 4.1314,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.475,
          "final": 1.6896,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "final": 2.5097,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.867,
          "final": 2.867,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1622,
          "final": 1.1622,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 36.1,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 31,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.2201834862385326,
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        "K9": 5.6972477064220195,
        "HR9": 0.9908256880733947,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8601994537534777,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607200",
      "player_name": "Erick Fedde",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 152,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5066,
        "runs_scored": 711.0,
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        "run_differential": 34.0,
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        "offense_index": 1.0391,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -6.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 80,
        "win_pct": 0.4737,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 76.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4934,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9934,
        "offense_index": 0.9982,
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        "recent": {
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          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1087
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0391,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0018,
        "defense_strength": 0.0107,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1273,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0059,
        "strikeout": 0.9958
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607200",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607200",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607200",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 71,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 71,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.26911645828974,
              "release_spin_rate": 2238.6521473255066,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 71,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.26911645828974,
                "release_spin_rate": 2238.6521473255066,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2691,
              "release_spin_rate": 2238.6521,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0885,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6324,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3955,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0336,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9257,
          "walk_factor": 0.986,
          "homer_factor": 1.0443,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607200",
            "espn_id": 33793,
            "player_name": "Erick Fedde",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 99,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 99,
              "gp_value": 31.0,
              "gp_rank": 220,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 150,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 179,
              "era_value": 3.9725,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 71,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 133.2,
              "ip_rank": 82,
              "h_value": 131.0,
              "h_rank": 66,
              "er_value": 59.0,
              "er_rank": 79,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 22,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 53,
              "k_value": 91.0,
              "k_rank": 133,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.127182,
              "k_per_9_rank": 43,
              "whip_value": 1.3391,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.8,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0336,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0336,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0443,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9257,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_DET@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_KC@HOU

away

Seth Lugo

True

5.0

5/8

1/1

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.9939024390243905,
      "WHIP": 1.451219512195122,
      "IP": 164.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4934,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0419,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9389,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.0605,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.352,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.6,
      "whiff_percent": 18.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 660,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 93.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2973,
            "WHIP": 1.8649,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.81081,
            "H_per_IP": 1.58108,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28378,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12162
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 65.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 921.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.7,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 6.5,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2437,
            "WHIP": 1.5375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69375,
            "H_per_IP": 1.21875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 164.0,
            "ER": 91.0,
            "R": 99.0,
            "H": 185.0,
            "BB": 53.0,
            "SO": 126.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 709.0,
            "Pitches": 2710.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0333,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 6.1667,
            "BB": 1.7667,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6333,
            "BF": 23.6333,
            "Pitches": 90.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9939,
            "WHIP": 1.4512,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55488,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12805,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32317,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76829,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11585
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.549,
        "predicted_H": 6.747,
        "predicted_BB": 1.618,
        "predicted_SO": 3.895,
        "predicted_HR": 0.569,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.1928,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6221
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.549,
          "final": 2.503,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.747,
          "final": 6.0301,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.618,
          "final": 1.3644,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.895,
          "final": 4.3485,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.569,
          "final": 0.3355,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.1928,
          "final": 6.1928,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6221,
          "final": 1.6221,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 37,
        "H": 65,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 6.24375,
        "WHIP": 1.5375,
        "K9": 6.24375,
        "HR9": 0.675,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.20920103058834,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4408,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 734.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6118,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2171,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8289,
        "offense_index": 0.9364,
        "defense_index": 0.9326,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.16
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 729.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3553,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4408,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7961,
        "offense_index": 0.9861,
        "defense_index": 0.939,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1134
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0466,
        "offense_edge": -0.0636,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0139,
        "defense_strength": -0.0674,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.061,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9967,
        "run_prevention": 1.0068,
        "strikeout": 0.9997
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607625",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607625",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 680.0,
            "k_percent": 17.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.352,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.062,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5511,
            "whiff_percent": 18.5,
            "swing_percent": 45.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6551,
            "command_and_miss": -0.515,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9286,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2299
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607625",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.74421116833972,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.1977962575334,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.74421116833972,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.1977962575334,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.7442,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.1978,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2299,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6424,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4934,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0419,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9389,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.0605,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607625",
            "espn_id": 34873,
            "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 660,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 660,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": 9,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 27,
              "era_value": 4.9939,
              "era_rank": 46.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 90,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 68,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 164.0,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 185.0,
              "h_rank": 5,
              "er_value": 91.0,
              "er_rank": 2,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 59,
              "bb_value": 53.0,
              "bb_rank": 40,
              "k_value": 126.0,
              "k_rank": 66,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.9146347,
              "k_per_9_rank": 61,
              "whip_value": 1.4512,
              "whip_rank": 44.0,
              "war_value": -0.2,
              "war_rank": 47.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0419,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0419,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0605,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9389,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_KC@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_KC@HOU

home

Miguel Ullola

True

3.0

0.2

-7

-3

5/0

1/2

5/0

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.375,
      "WHIP": 0.75,
      "IP": 8.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.0,
      "last_start_IP": 1.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2466,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.979,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0388,
      "walk_factor": 0.9478,
      "homer_factor": 1.0513,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.3,
      "bb_percent": 3.3,
      "woba": 0.261,
      "xwoba": 0.276,
      "barrel_percent": 15.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 388,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.62,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2447,
        "prior_weight": 0.7553
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "699044",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 0.6,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 4.4,
            "Pitches": 17.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 0.6667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.33333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 30.0,
            "Pitches": 119.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.8333,
            "BB": 0.1667,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 5.0,
            "Pitches": 19.8333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 30.0,
            "Pitches": 119.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.5,
            "R": 0.5,
            "H": 0.8333,
            "BB": 0.1667,
            "SO": 1.6667,
            "HR": 0.3333,
            "BF": 5.0,
            "Pitches": 19.8333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.672,
        "predicted_H": 2.89,
        "predicted_BB": 1.076,
        "predicted_SO": 3.216,
        "predicted_HR": 0.637,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4956,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1848
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6691,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.62,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2447,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 3.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.672,
          "final": 3.2297,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.89,
          "final": 4.3018,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.076,
          "final": 1.0251,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.216,
          "final": 4.4097,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.637,
          "final": 1.549,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4956,
          "final": 4.4956,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1848,
          "final": 1.1848,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 8.0,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 5,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.375,
        "WHIP": 0.75,
        "K9": 11.25,
        "HR9": 2.25,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9649075535812611,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.62,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2447,
          "prior_weight": 0.7553
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "699044",
      "player_name": "Miguel Ullola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 729.0,
        "run_differential": -54.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3553,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4408,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7961,
        "offense_index": 0.9861,
        "defense_index": 0.939,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1134
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4408,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 734.0,
        "run_differential": -93.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6118,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2171,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8289,
        "offense_index": 0.9364,
        "defense_index": 0.9326,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.16
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0466,
        "offense_edge": -0.0139,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0636,
        "defense_strength": -0.061,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0674,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0026,
        "run_prevention": 0.9936,
        "strikeout": 1.0065
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "699044",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "699044",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 27.0,
            "k_percent": 33.3,
            "bb_percent": 3.3,
            "woba": 0.261,
            "xwoba": 0.276,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 15.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.6646,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4329,
            "whiff_percent": 28.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4715,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2064,
            "regression_edge": -0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -1.8889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5429,
            "bb_edge": 1.45,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1646
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "699044",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 21,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 21,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.78887241985068,
              "release_spin_rate": 2478.703122529644,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 21,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.78887241985068,
                "release_spin_rate": 2478.703122529644,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.7889,
              "release_spin_rate": 2478.7031,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1646,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1755,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2466,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.979,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0388,
          "walk_factor": 0.9478,
          "homer_factor": 1.0513,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "699044",
            "espn_id": 5124163,
            "player_name": "Miguel Ullola",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 388,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 388,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 622,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 302,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 3.375,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 542,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 584,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 8.0,
              "ip_rank": 667,
              "h_value": 5.0,
              "h_rank": 732,
              "er_value": 3.0,
              "er_rank": 721,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 537,
              "bb_value": 1.0,
              "bb_rank": 765,
              "k_value": 10.0,
              "k_rank": 607,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.25,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 0.75,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.12,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9765,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0231,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0175,
            "adjusted": 0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 15,
      "Pitches": 57,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_KC@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_LAD@CIN

away

Justin Wrobleski

True

5.0

3.0

-6

-3

6/0

1/0

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.78,
      "WHIP": 1.155,
      "IP": 133.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.968,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3553,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0302,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
      "walk_factor": 0.93,
      "homer_factor": 1.0954,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 9.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
      "whiff_percent": 20.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 90,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680736",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 80.0,
            "Pitches": 317.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 63.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1633,
            "WHIP": 1.7755,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79592,
            "H_per_IP": 1.34694,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22449,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.30612
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 803.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 80.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7447,
            "WHIP": 1.4255,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6383,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2766,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23404,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.29787
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 133.1,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 31.0,
            "SO": 111.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 552.0,
            "Pitches": 2034.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.4167,
            "H": 5.125,
            "BB": 1.2917,
            "SO": 4.625,
            "HR": 0.875,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 84.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.78,
            "WHIP": 1.155,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9225,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2325,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8325,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1575
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.839,
        "predicted_H": 5.142,
        "predicted_BB": 1.525,
        "predicted_SO": 4.953,
        "predicted_HR": 1.121,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7407,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4979
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.839,
          "final": 2.9071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.142,
          "final": 5.5048,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.525,
          "final": 1.303,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.953,
          "final": 4.55,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.121,
          "final": 0.647,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7407,
          "final": 5.7407,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4979,
          "final": 1.4979,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.0,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 14,
        "ERA": 5.74468085106383,
        "WHIP": 1.425531914893617,
        "K9": 11.106382978723405,
        "HR9": 2.6808510638297873,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-12T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1502565492053614,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "680736",
      "player_name": "Justin Wrobleski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.3333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
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            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 60,
        "win_pct": 0.6053,
        "runs_scored": 751.0,
        "runs_allowed": 578.0,
        "run_differential": 173.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1382,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9408,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8026,
        "offense_index": 1.097,
        "defense_index": 1.1844,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2985
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4671,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 779.0,
        "run_differential": -148.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9737,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1513,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.125,
        "offense_index": 0.9217,
        "defense_index": 0.8788,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.7,
          "run_differential": -39.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2169
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5154,
        "offense_edge": 0.097,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0783,
        "defense_strength": 0.1844,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1212,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0293,
        "run_prevention": 0.9433,
        "strikeout": 1.0217
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680736",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680736",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 541.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
            "bb_percent": 5.6,
            "woba": 0.303,
            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.2141,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6288,
            "whiff_percent": 20.5,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4115,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1721,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.8,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6429,
            "bb_edge": 0.875,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0346
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680736",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 76,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 76,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.46859183729408,
              "release_spin_rate": 2386.166116365442,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 76,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.46859183729408,
                "release_spin_rate": 2386.166116365442,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.4686,
              "release_spin_rate": 2386.1661,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0346,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2474,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3553,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0302,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
          "walk_factor": 0.93,
          "homer_factor": 1.0954,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680736",
            "espn_id": 4417203,
            "player_name": "Justin Wrobleski",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 90,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 90,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 351,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 98,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 38,
              "era_value": 3.78,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 26,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 146,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 133.1,
              "ip_rank": 84,
              "h_value": 123.0,
              "h_rank": 81,
              "er_value": 56.0,
              "er_rank": 94,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 34,
              "bb_value": 31.0,
              "bb_rank": 170,
              "k_value": 111.0,
              "k_rank": 86,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4925003,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.155,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.89,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0302,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0302,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.93,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0954,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9634,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_LAD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_LAD@CIN

home

Brady Singer

True

4.2

3.1

-4

7/9

4/4

8/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.376106194690266,
      "WHIP": 1.513274336283186,
      "IP": 150.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.195,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5686,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0483,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.976,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.1106,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.364,
      "xwoba": 0.353,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 275,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663903",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 9.0,
            "WHIP": 1.88,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.32,
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                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.35309744249595,
                "release_spin_rate": 2382.291324078384,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3531,
              "release_spin_rate": 2382.2913,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1398,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9988,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5686,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0483,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.976,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 1.1106,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663903",
            "espn_id": 41172,
            "player_name": "Brady Singer",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 275,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 275,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 268,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 27,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 61,
              "era_value": 5.3761,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 112,
              "l_value": 14.0,
              "l_rank": 3,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 150.2,
              "ip_rank": 51,
              "h_value": 172.0,
              "h_rank": 8,
              "er_value": 90.0,
              "er_rank": 4,
              "hr_value": 30.0,
              "hr_rank": 5,
              "bb_value": 56.0,
              "bb_rank": 28,
              "k_value": 125.0,
              "k_rank": 68,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4668145,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.5132,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.42,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0483,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0483,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1106,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_LAD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_MIL@PIT

away

Kyle Harrison

True

5.0

1.2

-10

4/4

4/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6596385542168672,
      "WHIP": 1.2740963855421685,
      "IP": 110.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.812,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1924,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9836,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0526,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 1.0171,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.2,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.33,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 28.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 190,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 110.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.66,
      "season_WHIP": 1.274,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690986",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 4.8,
            "H": 7.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.9545,
            "WHIP": 2.2273,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.77273,
            "H_per_IP": 1.68182,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04545,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.45455
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 204.0,
            "Pitches": 838.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4,
            "WHIP": 1.5333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28889
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 110.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 134.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 471.0,
            "Pitches": 1976.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.9565,
            "R": 2.2609,
            "H": 4.6957,
            "BB": 1.4348,
            "SO": 5.8261,
            "HR": 0.8696,
            "BF": 20.4783,
            "Pitches": 85.913
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6596,
            "WHIP": 1.2741,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40663,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9759,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29819,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21084,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18072
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.831,
        "predicted_H": 5.989,
        "predicted_BB": 1.902,
        "predicted_SO": 5.053,
        "predicted_HR": 1.414,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5357,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.7143
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4255,
      "form_weight": 0.5745,
      "form_reliability": 0.8214,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 23.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8214,
        "prior_weight": 0.1786
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.831,
          "final": 2.4774,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.989,
          "final": 5.1428,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.902,
          "final": 2.7946,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.053,
          "final": 4.605,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.414,
          "final": 1.2379,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.5357,
          "final": 5.5357,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.7143,
          "final": 1.7143,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.2,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 5.818965517241379,
        "WHIP": 1.6810344827586206,
        "K9": 10.939655172413792,
        "HR9": 2.7931034482758617,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-12T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1650011383469607,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 23.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8214,
          "prior_weight": 0.1786
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690986",
      "player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 95,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.625,
        "runs_scored": 788.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 200.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3158,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1842,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8684,
        "offense_index": 1.151,
        "defense_index": 1.1643,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3369
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4934,
        "runs_scored": 723.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": 21.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1382,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7566,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6184,
        "offense_index": 1.0561,
        "defense_index": 0.9752,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0113
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3256,
        "offense_edge": 0.151,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0561,
        "defense_strength": 0.1643,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0248,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0157,
        "run_prevention": 0.9763,
        "strikeout": 1.0053
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690986",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690986",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 448.0,
            "k_percent": 28.2,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.33,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6263,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9762,
            "whiff_percent": 28.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.099,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6586,
            "regression_edge": 0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0067
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690986",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.73094925414001,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.511281181734,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.73094925414001,
                "release_spin_rate": 2195.511281181734,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7309,
              "release_spin_rate": 2195.5113,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0067,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0477,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1924,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9836,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0526,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 1.0171,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690986",
            "espn_id": 4683375,
            "player_name": "Kyle Harrison",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 190,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 190,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 351,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 85,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 94,
              "era_value": 3.9849,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 35,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 196,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 110.2,
              "ip_rank": 113,
              "h_value": 112.0,
              "h_rank": 107,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 119,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 42,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 153,
              "k_value": 134.0,
              "k_rank": 54,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.897591,
              "k_per_9_rank": 12,
              "whip_value": 1.3102,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.94,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9836,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9836,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0171,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0526,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -10 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_MIL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_MIL@PIT

home

Wilber Dotel

True

5.0

2.0

-9

4/3

3/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3113207547169807,
      "WHIP": 1.1886792452830188,
      "IP": 35.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.0,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1116,
      "sample_weight": 0.584,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9905,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0053,
      "walk_factor": 1.0023,
      "homer_factor": 0.9759,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 3.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 376,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 35.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.311,
      "season_WHIP": 1.189,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.154,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5886,
        "prior_weight": 0.4114
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696062",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.2,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 7.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 34.0,
            "Pitches": 144.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 1.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 6.8,
            "Pitches": 28.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.1538,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 71.0,
            "Pitches": 292.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 0.9,
            "H": 1.8,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 1.7,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.1,
            "Pitches": 29.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7059,
            "WHIP": 1.3529,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41176,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29412,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 35.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 144.0,
            "Pitches": 568.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.7222,
            "R": 0.8333,
            "H": 1.6111,
            "BB": 0.7222,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0556,
            "BF": 8.0,
            "Pitches": 31.5556
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3113,
            "WHIP": 1.1887,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36792,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82075,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36792,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01887,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0283
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.41,
        "predicted_H": 2.862,
        "predicted_BB": 1.075,
        "predicted_SO": 2.848,
        "predicted_HR": 0.197,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1226,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2792
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5238,
      "form_weight": 0.4762,
      "form_reliability": 0.5886,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.154,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5886,
        "prior_weight": 0.4114
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.0,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.41,
          "final": 1.1952,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.862,
          "final": 3.4581,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.075,
          "final": 2.0833,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.848,
          "final": 4.4991,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.197,
          "final": 0.0938,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1226,
          "final": 4.1226,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2792,
          "final": 1.2792,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 17.0,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 17,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 3.7058823529411766,
        "WHIP": 1.3529411764705883,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9547026659722222,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.154,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5886,
          "prior_weight": 0.4114
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696062",
      "player_name": "Wilber Dotel",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4934,
        "runs_scored": 723.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": 21.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1382,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7566,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6184,
        "offense_index": 1.0561,
        "defense_index": 0.9752,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0113
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 95,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.625,
        "runs_scored": 788.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 200.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3158,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1842,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8684,
        "offense_index": 1.151,
        "defense_index": 1.1643,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3369
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3256,
        "offense_edge": 0.0561,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.151,
        "defense_strength": -0.0248,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1643,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9802,
        "run_prevention": 1.0429,
        "strikeout": 0.9782
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696062",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696062",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 146.0,
            "k_percent": 24.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.3,
            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.813,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6771,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2717,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0986,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.9556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0571,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2383
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696062",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 33,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 33,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.10488301935032,
              "release_spin_rate": 2213.2361833085633,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 33,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.10488301935032,
                "release_spin_rate": 2213.2361833085633,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.1049,
              "release_spin_rate": 2213.2362,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2383,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.7019,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1116,
          "sample_weight": 0.584,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9905,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0053,
          "walk_factor": 1.0023,
          "homer_factor": 0.9759,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696062",
            "espn_id": 5332991,
            "player_name": "Wilber Dotel",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 376,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 376,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 417,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 302,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 4.8396,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 418,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 146,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 3.0,
              "hld_rank": 212,
              "ip_value": 35.1,
              "ip_rank": 403,
              "h_value": 34.0,
              "h_rank": 391,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 350,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 537,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 409,
              "k_value": 36.0,
              "k_rank": 387,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.169811,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.3584,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.14,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 9.0,
            "factor": 0.9945,
            "adjusted": 9
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0013,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9859,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_MIL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_MIN@LAA

away

Taj Bradley

True

6.0

7.0

5/5

1/1

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8104838709677415,
      "WHIP": 1.2459677419354838,
      "IP": 165.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.701,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0133,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0011,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0423,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 1.0738,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.308,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.2,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 16,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 465.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 7.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 93.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0337,
            "WHIP": 1.0449,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60674,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4382,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31461,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13483
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 241.0,
            "Pitches": 956.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 2.9,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.1,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7457,
            "WHIP": 1.2312,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41618,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72832,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50289,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14451,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12139
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 165.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 134.0,
            "BB": 72.0,
            "SO": 190.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 697.0,
            "Pitches": 2795.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4138,
            "R": 2.4138,
            "H": 4.6207,
            "BB": 2.4828,
            "SO": 6.5517,
            "HR": 0.7931,
            "BF": 24.0345,
            "Pitches": 96.3793
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8105,
            "WHIP": 1.246,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42339,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81048,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43548,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14919,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13911
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.338,
        "predicted_H": 4.278,
        "predicted_BB": 2.615,
        "predicted_SO": 6.896,
        "predicted_HR": 0.78,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6008,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1796
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.338,
          "final": 2.6108,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.278,
          "final": 4.5756,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.615,
          "final": 1.9494,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.896,
          "final": 6.1146,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.78,
          "final": 0.8707,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6008,
          "final": 3.6008,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1796,
          "final": 1.1796,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.2,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 29,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.745664739884393,
        "WHIP": 1.2312138728323698,
        "K9": 10.30057803468208,
        "HR9": 1.092485549132948,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9205092856461435,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
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          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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        ],
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
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        "wins": 71,
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        "win_pct": 0.4671,
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        },
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        "losses": 94,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671737",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671737",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.1723
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671737",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.92678562004767,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 92,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2179.6425,
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            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0133,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0011,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "671737",
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            "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 16,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
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              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 268,
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              "h_rank": 60,
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              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 22,
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              "k_per_9_value": 10.342742,
              "k_per_9_rank": 11,
              "whip_value": 1.2459,
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              "war_value": 3.91,
              "war_rank": 13.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 1.024,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
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      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_MIN@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_MIN@LAA

home

Walbert Ureña

True

5.2

7.0

-1

3/4

2/0

5/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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    },
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      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 27.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 25,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      },
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      "player_id": "700712",
      "report_date": "20260917",
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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            "SO": 5.8,
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          },
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            "H_per_IP": 0.8427,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97753,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 18.0,
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            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
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            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 896.0
          },
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            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
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            "Pitches": 2309.0
          },
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 4.661,
        "predicted_BB": 2.155,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.4329,
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    },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        },
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        },
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "H": 42,
        "BB": 21,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-12T00:00:00"
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700712",
      "player_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 94,
        "win_pct": 0.3816,
        "runs_scored": 614.0,
        "runs_allowed": 692.0,
        "run_differential": -78.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5132,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0395,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5526,
        "offense_index": 0.8967,
        "defense_index": 0.9894,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1983
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4671,
        "runs_scored": 692.0,
        "runs_allowed": 765.0,
        "run_differential": -73.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4803,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5526,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0329,
        "offense_index": 1.0107,
        "defense_index": 0.895,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -34.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1566
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0417,
        "offense_edge": -0.1033,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0107,
        "defense_strength": -0.0106,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.105,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9976,
        "run_prevention": 1.0049,
        "strikeout": 0.9979
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700712",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700712",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 549.0,
            "k_percent": 22.6,
            "bb_percent": 11.6,
            "woba": 0.279,
            "xwoba": 0.286,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.2389,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7327,
            "whiff_percent": 27.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.6839,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0186,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3,
            "bb_edge": -0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2353
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700712",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.05192760591741,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.5035203109783,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.05192760591741,
                "release_spin_rate": 2099.5035203109783,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.0519,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.5035,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2353,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.6807,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3867,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9671,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0154,
          "walk_factor": 1.05,
          "homer_factor": 0.9389,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "700712",
            "espn_id": 5197476,
            "player_name": "Walbert Urena",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 25,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 25,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 305,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 68,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 38,
              "era_value": 2.8834,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 45,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 22,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 276,
              "ip_value": 137.1,
              "ip_rank": 77,
              "h_value": 103.0,
              "h_rank": 120,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 138,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 184,
              "bb_value": 67.0,
              "bb_rank": 12,
              "k_value": 131.0,
              "k_rank": 60,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.584951,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.2378,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.44,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9671,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9671,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.05,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9389,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_MIN@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_OAK@TB

away

Jeffrey Springs

True

4.2

3.1

-4

6/5

3/2

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.933333333333334,
      "WHIP": 1.451851851851852,
      "IP": 135.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3354,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0285,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0404,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.365,
      "xwoba": 0.337,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 643,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 8.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 439.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 87.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55556,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96296,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37037,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.62963,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 823.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 2.7,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 82.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.7021,
            "WHIP": 1.6809,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74468,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53191,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.57447,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23404
          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2221,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5865,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3354,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0285,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0404,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605488",
            "espn_id": 35397,
            "player_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 643,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 643,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 305,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 54,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 112,
              "era_value": 5.9333,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 200,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 8,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 135.0,
              "ip_rank": 80,
              "h_value": 142.0,
              "h_rank": 39,
              "er_value": 89.0,
              "er_rank": 5,
              "hr_value": 33.0,
              "hr_rank": 3,
              "bb_value": 54.0,
              "bb_rank": 35,
              "k_value": 105.0,
              "k_rank": 103,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.4518,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.17,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0285,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0285,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0404,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9629,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_OAK@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_OAK@TB

home

Drew Rasmussen

True

6.0

5.0

-3

-2

3/4

1/2

8/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.8066528066528065,
      "WHIP": 0.9168399168399168,
      "IP": 160.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.726,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5293,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.955,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0177,
      "walk_factor": 0.904,
      "homer_factor": 0.9257,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.6,
      "bb_percent": 4.3,
      "woba": 0.246,
      "xwoba": 0.273,
      "barrel_percent": 6.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 18,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656876",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 475.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 95.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9032,
            "WHIP": 0.9355,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32258,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80645,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12903,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87097,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 926.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0656,
            "WHIP": 0.8689,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22951,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70492,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16393,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01639,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03279
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 160.1,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 160.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 625.0,
            "Pitches": 2470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7857,
            "R": 1.8571,
            "H": 4.2857,
            "BB": 0.9643,
            "SO": 5.7143,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.3214,
            "Pitches": 88.2143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8067,
            "WHIP": 0.9168,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31185,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74844,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1684,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99792,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08732
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.947,
        "predicted_H": 4.809,
        "predicted_BB": 1.112,
        "predicted_SO": 5.741,
        "predicted_HR": 0.434,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8865,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9752
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.947,
          "final": 1.9689,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.809,
          "final": 4.0601,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.112,
          "final": 1.0656,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.741,
          "final": 6.6762,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.434,
          "final": 0.6683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8865,
          "final": 2.8865,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9752,
          "final": 0.9752,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 62,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 2.0655737704918034,
        "WHIP": 0.8688524590163934,
        "K9": 9.147540983606557,
        "HR9": 0.29508196721311475,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7224400162440778,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656876",
      "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6093,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 617.0,
        "run_differential": 71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4702,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5563,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0861,
        "offense_index": 1.0116,
        "defense_index": 1.1023,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2553
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.4013,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 865.0,
        "run_differential": -205.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3487,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3421,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6908,
        "offense_index": 0.9641,
        "defense_index": 0.7915,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2486
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5039,
        "offense_edge": 0.0116,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0359,
        "defense_strength": 0.1023,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2085,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0247,
        "run_prevention": 0.9588,
        "strikeout": 1.018
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
            "k_percent": 25.6,
            "bb_percent": 4.3,
            "woba": 0.246,
            "xwoba": 0.273,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5668,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6703,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 50.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8555,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4464,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 1.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1406
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.35994207532833,
              "release_spin_rate": 2360.869278887561,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.35994207532833,
                "release_spin_rate": 2360.869278887561,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.3599,
              "release_spin_rate": 2360.8693,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1406,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0039,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5293,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.955,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0177,
          "walk_factor": 0.904,
          "homer_factor": 0.9257,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656876",
            "espn_id": 42584,
            "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 18,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 18,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 292,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 40,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 13,
              "era_value": 2.8066,
              "era_rank": 9.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 8,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 146,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 160.1,
              "ip_rank": 37,
              "h_value": 120.0,
              "h_rank": 89,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 111,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 110,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 204,
              "k_value": 160.0,
              "k_rank": 29,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.981289,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 0.9168,
              "whip_rank": 4.0,
              "war_value": 3.84,
              "war_rank": 15.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.955,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.955,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.904,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9257,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0177,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_OAK@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_PHI@NYM

away

Aaron Nola

True

6.0

7.0

-4

6/3

1/3

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.68595041322314,
      "WHIP": 1.3698347107438016,
      "IP": 161.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.378,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0331,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9972,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0508,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.347,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
      "whiff_percent": 27.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 48,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 490.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 98.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0106,
            "WHIP": 1.0213,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2234,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73404,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28723,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8617,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12766
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 57.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.7,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 95.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9314,
            "WHIP": 1.2343,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18857
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 161.1,
            "ER": 84.0,
            "R": 86.0,
            "H": 166.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 165.0,
            "HR": 34.0,
            "BF": 690.0,
            "Pitches": 2756.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8667,
            "H": 5.5333,
            "BB": 1.8333,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 1.1333,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 91.8667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.686,
            "WHIP": 1.3698,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52066,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02893,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.02273,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21074
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.076,
        "predicted_H": 5.21,
        "predicted_BB": 1.957,
        "predicted_SO": 5.622,
        "predicted_HR": 0.981,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1074,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1918
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.076,
          "final": 2.8656,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.21,
          "final": 5.5342,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.957,
          "final": 1.5643,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.622,
          "final": 4.1356,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.981,
          "final": 0.9888,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1074,
          "final": 3.1074,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1918,
          "final": 1.1918,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 57,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 2.9314285714285715,
        "WHIP": 1.2342857142857144,
        "K9": 8.794285714285715,
        "HR9": 1.6971428571428573,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8289845127311972,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5526,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2039,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2763,
        "offense_index": 0.9948,
        "defense_index": 1.0531,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0346
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4539,
        "runs_scored": 650.0,
        "runs_allowed": 693.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2829,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2763,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5592,
        "offense_index": 0.9495,
        "defense_index": 0.9878,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0737
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1083,
        "offense_edge": -0.0052,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0505,
        "defense_strength": 0.0531,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0122,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0079,
        "run_prevention": 0.9812,
        "strikeout": 1.0073
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 636.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.347,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.8683,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2748,
            "whiff_percent": 27.3,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2291,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2921,
            "regression_edge": 1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3286,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2173
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.97025411000989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2296.978491607639,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.97025411000989,
                "release_spin_rate": 2296.978491607639,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9703,
              "release_spin_rate": 2296.9785,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2173,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5519,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0331,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9972,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.024,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0508,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.036,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_id": 33709,
            "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 48,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 48,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": 9,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 48,
              "era_value": 4.6859,
              "era_rank": 44.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 112,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 22,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 161.1,
              "ip_rank": 34,
              "h_value": 166.0,
              "h_rank": 10,
              "er_value": 84.0,
              "er_rank": 12,
              "hr_value": 34.0,
              "hr_rank": 1,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 165.0,
              "k_rank": 25,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.204545,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.3698,
              "whip_rank": 42.0,
              "war_value": 2.66,
              "war_rank": 26.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9972,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9972,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0508,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_PHI@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_PHI@NYM

home

Nolan McLean

True

6.0

-1

4/7

3/3

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.24,
      "WHIP": 1.1760000000000002,
      "IP": 166.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.747,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2306,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9804,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
      "walk_factor": 1.008,
      "homer_factor": 0.9683,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 6.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 50,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 494.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 98.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4,
            "WHIP": 1.3667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 59.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 961.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.7,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 96.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7303,
            "WHIP": 1.2809,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82584,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45506,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99438,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11798
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 166.2,
            "ER": 60.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 66.0,
            "SO": 184.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 695.0,
            "Pitches": 2750.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.069,
            "R": 2.4828,
            "H": 4.4828,
            "BB": 2.2759,
            "SO": 6.3448,
            "HR": 0.5862,
            "BF": 23.9655,
            "Pitches": 94.8276
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.24,
            "WHIP": 1.176,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.396,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.104,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.102
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.953,
        "predicted_H": 5.01,
        "predicted_BB": 2.752,
        "predicted_SO": 5.604,
        "predicted_HR": 0.594,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.9572,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.306
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.953,
          "final": 1.9724,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.01,
          "final": 4.5937,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.752,
          "final": 2.8542,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.604,
          "final": 5.7672,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.594,
          "final": 0.3492,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.9572,
          "final": 2.9572,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.306,
          "final": 1.306,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 59.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 59,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.7303370786516856,
        "WHIP": 1.2808988764044944,
        "K9": 8.949438202247192,
        "HR9": 1.0617977528089888,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8075270488467672,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 6.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4539,
        "runs_scored": 650.0,
        "runs_allowed": 693.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2829,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2763,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5592,
        "offense_index": 0.9495,
        "defense_index": 0.9878,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0737
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5526,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2039,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2763,
        "offense_index": 0.9948,
        "defense_index": 1.0531,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0346
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1083,
        "offense_edge": -0.0505,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0052,
        "defense_strength": -0.0122,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0531,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9955,
        "run_prevention": 1.0058,
        "strikeout": 0.9972
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690997",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690997",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 666.0,
            "k_percent": 26.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7356,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6272,
            "whiff_percent": 24.3,
            "swing_percent": 44.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.923,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3288,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2343,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0696
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690997",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.09291107173905,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.008206803709,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.09291107173905,
                "release_spin_rate": 2504.008206803709,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0929,
              "release_spin_rate": 2504.0082,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0696,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.4971,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2306,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9804,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 0.9683,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690997",
            "espn_id": 4433874,
            "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 50,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 50,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 268,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 27,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 7,
              "era_value": 3.24,
              "era_rank": 15.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 26,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
              "ip_value": 166.2,
              "ip_rank": 20,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 67,
              "er_value": 60.0,
              "er_rank": 71,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 79,
              "bb_value": 66.0,
              "bb_rank": 13,
              "k_value": 184.0,
              "k_rank": 15,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.936,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.176,
              "whip_rank": 23.0,
              "war_value": 2.6,
              "war_rank": 27.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9804,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9804,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9683,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_PHI@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_SD@COL

away

Michael King

True

6.1

6.0

-1

6/7

1/2

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0342857142857143,
      "WHIP": 1.1485714285714286,
      "IP": 175.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.533,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0944,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.008,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 1.0022,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.3,
      "woba": 0.291,
      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 13,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "650633",
      "report_date": "20260917",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 486.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 97.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.3776,
            "WHIP": 0.9796,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15306,
            "H_per_IP": 0.67347,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73469,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09184
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 968.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4811,
            "WHIP": 1.1351,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27568,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79459,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34054,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84324,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14595
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 175.0,
            "ER": 59.0,
            "R": 61.0,
            "H": 135.0,
            "BB": 66.0,
            "SO": 148.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 711.0,
            "Pitches": 2796.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9667,
            "R": 2.0333,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.9333,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 23.7,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0343,
            "WHIP": 1.1486,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33714,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84571,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11429
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.713,
        "predicted_H": 4.853,
        "predicted_BB": 2.133,
        "predicted_SO": 5.14,
        "predicted_HR": 0.756,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.445,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.108
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      },
      {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5461,
        "runs_scored": 659.0,
        "runs_allowed": 636.0,
        "run_differential": 23.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1513,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3355,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1842,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
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          "losses": 1,
          "win_pct": 0.9,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 96,
        "win_pct": 0.3684,
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        "runs_allowed": 885.0,
        "run_differential": -170.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1184,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7039,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8224,
        "offense_index": 1.0442,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.1,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.6,
          "run_differential": -32.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5861,
        "offense_edge": -0.0376,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0767,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.8
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.024,
        "run_prevention": 0.9701,
        "strikeout": 1.014
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "650633",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "650633",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 680.0,
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            "woba": 0.291,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.7799,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.1286,
            "whiff_percent": 24.7,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5748,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.049,
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            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0429,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0486
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "650633",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.98268042354384,
              "release_spin_rate": 2287.938744232883,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.98268042354384,
                "release_spin_rate": 2287.938744232883,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9827,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0486,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0944,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.008,
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          "homer_factor": 1.0022,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "650633",
            "espn_id": 40429,
            "player_name": "Michael King",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 13,
            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 13,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 240,
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              "qs_rank": 13,
              "era_value": 3.0342,
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              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 26,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 254,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 358,
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              "ip_rank": 11,
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              "h_rank": 56,
              "er_value": 59.0,
              "er_rank": 79,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 42,
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              "bb_rank": 13,
              "k_value": 148.0,
              "k_rank": 38,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6114283,
              "k_per_9_rank": 93,
              "whip_value": 1.1485,
              "whip_rank": 19.0,
              "war_value": 4.13,
              "war_rank": 10.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0022,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 5
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_SD@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260917

20260917_SD@COL

home

Tanner Gordon

True

5.0

3.0

-6

5/10

1/2

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.4794520547945207,
      "IP": 97.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.9,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0251,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0968,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.2,
      "woba": 0.377,
      "xwoba": 0.328,
      "barrel_percent": 10.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.8,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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        "run_differential_per_game": -1.1184,
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      "opponent": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "685299",
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 1.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "685299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.71239490372379,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 75,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7124,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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            "espn_total_ranked": 863,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.4794,
              "whip_rank": null,
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0251,
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260917_SD@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}