Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260916 · dates 20260916 · generated 2026-09-17T09:00:18.686607+00:00

10-5

Winner picks · 66.7%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

15/30

Starter ER within ±1

22/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260916	15	15	0	10	5	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.95]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1661.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	8	51.9%	75.0%	-23.1%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	6	56.9%	50.0%	6.9%	overconfident
0.70-0.80	1	76.7%	100.0%	-23.3%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	1.8428	1.7362	3.0594	60.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	1.8667	1.8667	2.9333	40.0%	0.0239	-0.1261
enhanced_prediction	15	1.9333	2.0	3.2	73.3%	0.0905	0.1406
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.0333	2.2	3.4	73.3%	0.1905	0.3406
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.1	2.2	3.5333	66.7%	0.2572	0.4739
capped_target	15	2.1	2.2	3.5333	66.7%	0.2572	0.4739
simulation_result	15	2.1	2.2	3.5333	66.7%	0.2572	0.4739
published_final	15	2.1	2.2	3.5333	66.7%	0.2572	0.4739

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.1,
  "total_run_mae": 2.2,
  "margin_mae": 3.5333,
  "winner_hits": 10,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6667,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2572,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.4739
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	3.0	-1.0	2.0	4.0	5	2	1	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	5	3	0	2	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	5	1	0	4	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.548	-0.6975	-0.1495	1.2455	5	3	2	0	reinforced final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.548,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.6975,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.1495,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.2455,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=10

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	9.0	-3.0	6.0	12.0	10	6	2	2	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	2.372	-0.8893	1.4827	3.2613	10	6	4	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	10	2	0	8	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 9.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 6.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 12.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.372,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.8893,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.4827,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.2613,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	4	4	0	1.0
[0.525, 0.550)	4	2	2	0.5
[0.550, 0.600)	6	3	3	0.5
[0.600, 1.010)	1	1	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 4,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 2,
    "accuracy": 0.5
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 6,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260916	15	0.5553	10.2667	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260916",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5553,
      "mean_predicted_total": 10.2667,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	10	5	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 10,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260916_ATL@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scoreATL 5 - 7 CHC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 49.3% → blended 52.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=334

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0678

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7715445393139193-5.679446048976188	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 7 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.493133,
    "sample_size": 334,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5599,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.526516,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.1086,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0678
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01737043610542093
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016742445737479395
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016560547227566086
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016454432702909614
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016308021753123
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03518278940067432,
      "1": 0.055891370196939134,
      "2": 0.08034483858400907,
      "3": 0.10451291153191407,
      "4": 0.12302139531280097,
      "5": 0.13103583740753313,
      "6": 0.12629852147328305,
      "7": 0.11015524543926061,
      "8": 0.08693823850259473,
      "9": 0.06208908053687597,
      "10": 0.040125306107591394,
      "11": 0.023464982065993886,
      "12": 0.012417118698916877,
      "13": 0.005945935267137071,
      "14": 0.002576429474475707
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036487417335731714,
      "1": 0.0579063671474223,
      "2": 0.08299380351999093,
      "3": 0.10742396305597975,
      "4": 0.12557200402920968,
      "5": 0.13256248404318066,
      "6": 0.12638181702965204,
      "7": 0.10881398358144803,
      "8": 0.08460986021980967,
      "9": 0.059414630230255255,
      "10": 0.03767922598599815,
      "11": 0.02157976446814746,
      "12": 0.011161628946813726,
      "13": 0.005213682914026966,
      "14": 0.002199367492333698
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 7 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "ATL 5 - 7 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1456,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.078,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 7,
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      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 2,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.756578947368421,
          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1579,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0329,
        "quality_edge": 0.0678,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1086,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.1086,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.008,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0678
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7715445393139193,
      "home_runs": 5.679446048976188,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_BAL@NYM

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYM

Published scoreBAL 5 - 7 NYM

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 60.5% → blended 58.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=364

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0576

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.036866082537121-4.930136276270159	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 5 - 7 NYM",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.605469,
    "sample_size": 364,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.581584,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0793,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.312,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0576
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0163164121749971
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01578524042146223
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015621518701873508
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      {
        "home_runs": 7,
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        "probability": 0.015456737592015225
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      {
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        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015354445877736916
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02694014743182345,
      "1": 0.04307000645250115,
      "2": 0.0631058477248246,
      "3": 0.08473912457840053,
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      "14": 0.006857127016388197,
      "15": 0.0032329051067732833
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "5": 0.1342083055387153,
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      "8": 0.08179599337432726,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 7 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "score_text": "BAL 5 - 7 NYM",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0324,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.038,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "model_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner": "NYM",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "NYM",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYM",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 7
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0576,
      "winner": "NYM",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 7,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYM",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6254,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.0576,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.312,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0324,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T22:36:26.825512+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-16T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.567625,
      "confidence": 0.567625,
      "predicted_score": {
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        "away_runs": 5,
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "away": {
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  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_BOS@TEX

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreBOS 6 - 5 TEX

Final confidence52.8%

Calibrationraw 47.8% → blended 51.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=665

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6396

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.162640013783492-4.179941725854382	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.055744,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.527872,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.472128,
    "away_win_probability": 0.527872
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.055744,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BOS 6 - 5 TEX",
    "confidence": 0.52787235,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.478051,
    "sample_size": 665,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5504,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.514225,
    "published_confidence": 0.527872,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.05,
    "away_run_delta": 0.05,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.9172,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6396
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023566633917082327
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022829896822194707
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02211650941330357
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022093126195061784
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.021425105925154116
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0540389966879564,
      "1": 0.0846470289694046,
      "2": 0.11665270351162603,
      "3": 0.141434885750081,
      "4": 0.15086792815774264,
      "5": 0.14158457949515343,
      "6": 0.11689976308107533,
      "7": 0.0849160830959147,
      "8": 0.054268138212894654,
      "9": 0.03051255239319142,
      "10": 0.015093529245242427,
      "11": 0.006568734516687378,
      "12": 0.0025150768830298703
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06030801558289463,
      "1": 0.09402519158291643,
      "2": 0.12776784064832203,
      "3": 0.15132372467078956,
      "4": 0.1562070494693996,
      "5": 0.14054078515921678,
      "6": 0.1102077817626688,
      "7": 0.07532346431769224,
      "8": 0.04487003936293158,
      "9": 0.02329650405422261,
      "10": 0.01054224724827715,
      "11": 0.0041579932517526895,
      "12": 0.0014293628889158712
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BOS 6 - 5 TEX",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BOS 6 - 5 TEX",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0576,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.124,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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    },
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      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5667,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
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    },
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        "away_run_delta": 0.05,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -9.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 151,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.4966887417218543,
          "runs_scored": 628,
          "runs_allowed": 670,
          "run_differential": -42,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2781456953642384,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 151,
          "wins": 82,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.543046357615894,
          "runs_scored": 665,
          "runs_allowed": 579,
          "run_differential": 86,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5695364238410596,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.8477,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0464,
        "quality_edge": -0.6396,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.9172,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.9172,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.124,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.6396
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2686,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2686,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.6396,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.9172,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.731,
          "home_runs": 4.004,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5232
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "9": 0.021487416840154996,
          "10": 0.009315640710342951,
          "11": 0.0034939992199471666
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.162640013783492,
      "home_runs": 4.179941725854382,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_CHW@CLE

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCHW 4 - 5 CLE

Final confidence55.7%

Calibrationraw 56.5% → blended 56.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=334

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1101

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.830711205926704-5.338968034018156	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.113026,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.556513,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.556513,
    "away_win_probability": 0.443487
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.113026,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
    "confidence": 0.5565132275,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.56508,
    "sample_size": 334,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5689,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.56699,
    "published_confidence": 0.556513,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3159,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.272,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1101
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02096912506082598
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020789023710197366
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019718257295206917
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01960158258485394
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01954889950080167
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04325311790650724,
      "1": 0.06829716236690934,
      "2": 0.09641134558534721,
      "3": 0.12167290362016003,
      "4": 0.1372776524784499,
      "5": 0.13846692865452961,
      "6": 0.12486264144885746,
      "7": 0.10066053184604958,
      "8": 0.07254812070305423,
      "9": 0.046744805463985,
      "10": 0.026926554823326995,
      "11": 0.01386655144821223,
      "12": 0.0063840515923426246,
      "13": 0.002627632062268433
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05462373661868563,
      "1": 0.08552558380705494,
      "2": 0.11770901774525712,
      "3": 0.1424040923475909,
      "4": 0.1514377856473097,
      "5": 0.14156147446412448,
      "6": 0.11632014917778986,
      "7": 0.08401636151839258,
      "8": 0.05334231198060195,
      "9": 0.029770000826462382,
      "10": 0.014604439854759765,
      "11": 0.006297816588318595,
      "12": 0.002387229423652174
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE",
      "winner": "CLE"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0454,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.202,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CLE",
      "model_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner": "CLE",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CLE",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "CLE",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CLE",
    "display_confidence": 0.5565,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5289,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5565,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1101,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.272,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0454,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.85,
        "new_value": 1.95,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T16:43:27.733454+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-16T17:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "away": {
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          "12": 0.0019485043511858592
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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      "prospective": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.830711205926704,
      "home_runs": 5.338968034018156,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_DET@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreDET 7 - 4 TOR

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 75.4% → blended 65.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=271

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.8535

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.749045808427526-3.5738166866842787	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "DET 7 - 4 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.753922,
    "sample_size": 271,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5572,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.655561,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7746,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.0,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.8535
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017624688071098158
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.017161487913340826
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016719212558420984
      },
      {
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        "probability": 0.01665883451177642
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.016384933125405027
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
        "final_confidence": 0.657,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.657,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.959516,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 2.0987,
        "calibration_sample_size": 271,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5572,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5536,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.8535,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 6,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -2,
          "probability_before": 0.343025,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.343682,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.959516,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.343354,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.656646
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 15,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -9.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "TOR",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.4934210526315789,
          "runs_scored": 614,
          "runs_allowed": 655,
          "run_differential": -41,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.26973684210526316,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 151,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.4768211920529801,
          "runs_scored": 682,
          "runs_allowed": 602,
          "run_differential": 80,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5298013245033113,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.7995,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0166,
        "quality_edge": -0.8535,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.7746,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7746,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.0,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.8535
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3585,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3585,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.8535,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.7746,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 7.625,
          "home_runs": 1.904,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 6,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.749045808427526,
      "home_runs": 3.5738166866842787,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_KC@HOU

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickKC

Published scoreKC 5 - 4 HOU

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 53.6% → blended 53.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=464

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2905

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.565164516182108-4.514306147326073	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.011024,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505512,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494488,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505512
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.011024,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "KC wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 12)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 5 - 4 HOU",
    "confidence": 0.5055119525,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.535585,
    "sample_size": 464,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5431,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.539342,
    "published_confidence": 0.505512,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0062,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3974,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.092,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2905
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0202017037955472
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020061796836167163
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019822955207144156
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019685671272233207
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018293161652810846
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04742541086274814,
      "1": 0.07465635939282286,
      "2": 0.10442480844391046,
      "3": 0.12978417490198282,
      "4": 0.14332467555254366,
      "5": 0.1406375745486761,
      "6": 0.12262046033021466,
      "7": 0.09499608122578175,
      "8": 0.06539275157375699,
      "9": 0.039997671315591794,
      "10": 0.021738069668992378,
      "11": 0.01049756129340601,
      "12": 0.004504400889572444
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04565729549716513,
      "1": 0.07196872765705406,
      "2": 0.10106819596817156,
      "3": 0.12645099453098038,
      "4": 0.1409506333620908,
      "5": 0.13997447933389803,
      "6": 0.12384193707069342,
      "7": 0.09761659589112029,
      "8": 0.0685514472215108,
      "9": 0.04288907142032627,
      "10": 0.02390637380641219,
      "11": 0.011871833991435678,
      "12": 0.005252414249141331
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "KC 5 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "KC 5 - 4 HOU",
      "winner": "KC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0982,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.267,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "KC",
      "model_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner": "KC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "KC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "KC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2905,
      "winner": "KC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "KC",
    "display_confidence": 0.5055,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5978,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5055,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2905,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.092,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0982,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260916_LAD@CIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 8 - 4 CIN

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 73.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=205

H2H base featurehome net -24.0 · absolute 24.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -2.0511

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.173611335159206-2.651285471589556	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 8-4",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 8 - 4 CIN",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 205,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5512,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7356,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -24.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 24.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.1385,
    "away_run_delta": 0.1385,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -13.0
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.92,
        "sample_size": 205,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5512,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.7356
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58,
        "final_confidence": 0.7484,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.7484,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.947534,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 3.5442,
        "calibration_sample_size": 205,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5512,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5471,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.0511,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 8,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -4,
          "probability_before": 0.25163,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.210448,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.947534,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.25163,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.74837
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 7,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "671096": 30,
            "605483": 7
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.7292,
          "probability_before": 0.25163,
          "probability_after": 0.318897,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -24.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 24.0,
        "home_average_margin": -4.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.1385,
        "away_run_delta": 0.1385,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -13.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 151,
          "wins": 70,
          "losses": 81,
          "win_pct": 0.46357615894039733,
          "runs_scored": 625,
          "runs_allowed": 777,
          "run_differential": -152,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0066225165562914,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAD",
          "games": 151,
          "wins": 92,
          "losses": 59,
          "win_pct": 0.609271523178808,
          "runs_scored": 749,
          "runs_allowed": 572,
          "run_differential": 177,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.1721854304635762,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -2.1788,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1457,
        "quality_edge": -2.0511,
        "season_quality_edge": -2.3974,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.3974,
          "recent_quality_edge": -1.408,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -2.0511
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -3.2818,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -3.2818,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": -2.0511,
          "season_quality_edge": -2.3974,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 10.586,
          "home_runs": 0.0,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 8,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.015315979245800174
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "14": 0.02870672832168277,
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          "16": 0.01068691444388122,
          "17": 0.005879693716929424,
          "18": 0.0030192734219464893,
          "19": 0.001447090038745347
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.173611335159206,
      "home_runs": 2.651285471589556,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_MIA@ARI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIA

Published scoreMIA 7 - 5 ARI

Final confidence55.5%

Calibrationraw 51.4% → blended 53.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=391

H2H base featurehome net -15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0806

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.830342007698904-3.701380862085342	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.109096,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.554548,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.445452,
    "away_win_probability": 0.554548
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.109096,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIA wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIA 7 - 5 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.5545479,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5136,
    "sample_size": 391,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5601,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53685,
    "published_confidence": 0.554548,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -15.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
    "home_average_margin": -3.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0865,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0865,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0099,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.212,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0806
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016685410950520462
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016641786908014523
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015958233724344784
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01591651088824713
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015721616869690955
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03789732452427711,
      "1": 0.060079703001456236,
      "2": 0.08583318307800701,
      "3": 0.11050727623298659,
      "4": 0.12821379225033652,
      "5": 0.1340561775303461,
      "6": 0.12631273322528708,
      "7": 0.10725453111720196,
      "8": 0.08207150159179998,
      "9": 0.05659490367877319,
      "10": 0.03516984754506155,
      "11": 0.019695719985997256,
      "12": 0.009939887102965079,
      "13": 0.004520633063345537,
      "14": 0.0018527860721591137
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.030473636028181213,
      "1": 0.04858429724569103,
      "2": 0.0705960878102848,
      "3": 0.09349285119420321,
      "4": 0.11284679641737555,
      "5": 0.12414039557593193,
      "6": 0.12446581170601713,
      "7": 0.1137365595018295,
      "8": 0.09472468250221901,
      "9": 0.07190172175004984,
      "10": 0.049742600056752975,
      "11": 0.031363948687071895,
      "12": 0.018023787044809655,
      "13": 0.009440052739061337,
      "14": 0.004506255935104961,
      "15": 0.0019605158054160597
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIA 7 - 5 ARI",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "MIA 7 - 5 ARI",
      "winner": "MIA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0289,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.002,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "model_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner": "MIA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0806,
      "winner": "MIA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5545,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5057,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5545,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0806,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.212,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0289,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.1667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
      "config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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}

20260916_MIL@PIT

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreMIL 5 - 3 PIT

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 81.5% → blended 69.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.4% · weight 50.0% · n=365

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1366

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.967527790419078-4.355735198195982	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PIT",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.814848,
    "sample_size": 365,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5644,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.689624,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.3609,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.72,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1366
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021890884073925188
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.021719854238353965
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.020470374882835794
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.077635436917013,
      "1": 0.11947658535186335,
      "2": 0.1561424413754446,
      "3": 0.17329039521547332,
      "4": 0.16332150827197936,
      "5": 0.13071566445346017,
      "6": 0.08884382557968173,
      "7": 0.05127931674180748,
      "8": 0.025134634375281913,
      "9": 0.010462085799637035,
      "10": 0.00369810591835804
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.0965967669306616,
      "4": 0.11581963746014158,
      "5": 0.12632485514679306,
      "6": 0.1253379000685352,
      "7": 0.11312615256610828,
      "8": 0.09288179873013172,
      "9": 0.06937215968189271,
      "10": 0.04713318743691264,
      "11": 0.029131000675217508,
      "12": 0.016378381906284028,
      "13": 0.00837671194841836,
      "14": 0.0038972939825266018
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PIT",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
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      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PIT",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.053,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.93,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1366,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6659,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.1366,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.72,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.053,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 6,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-16T22:40:00+00:00",
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    "champion_reference": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.34016,
      "confidence": 0.65984,
      "predicted_score": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.663847,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
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        "raw_confidence": 0.814848,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.56,
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        "calibration_sample_size": 365,
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5614,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.1366,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 3
          },
          "margin": -2,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": -10.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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            "home_margin": 1.0
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        "adaptive_parameters": {
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 151,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 76,
          "win_pct": 0.4966887417218543,
          "runs_scored": 719,
          "runs_allowed": 697,
          "run_differential": 22,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.1456953642384106,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 151,
          "wins": 94,
          "losses": 57,
          "win_pct": 0.6225165562913907,
          "runs_scored": 783,
          "runs_allowed": 584,
          "run_differential": 199,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3178807947019868,
          "available": true
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1722,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1258,
        "quality_edge": -1.1366,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.3609,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
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          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.1366
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.4774,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.4774,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.1366,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.3609,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.85,
          "home_runs": 0.76,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "14": 0.0033000163055257334
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.967527790419078,
      "home_runs": 4.355735198195982,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_NYY@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickNYY

Published scoreNYY 7 - 4 MIN

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 89.0% → blended 71.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.6% · weight 50.0% · n=194

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.4725

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.882039928752512-3.3060144924302977	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYY 7 - 4 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.889739,
    "sample_size": 194,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5361,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.712919,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.5762,
    "recent_quality_edge": -1.28,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.4725
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018216357321529462
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.018029488080892362
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.017787957550621767
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01760548297234584
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016981923031031014
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06190454908444986,
      "1": 0.0964045942404002,
      "2": 0.13055484479491067,
      "3": 0.15374760163363532,
      "4": 0.1574504122081498,
      "5": 0.14021657330763748,
      "6": 0.10858628921988579,
      "7": 0.07312581675582587,
      "8": 0.04282393418217393,
      "9": 0.02180833406522384,
      "10": 0.009657806830508764,
      "11": 0.0037192436771983236
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022707932069490386,
      "1": 0.03642640406040151,
      "2": 0.05391408088424329,
      "3": 0.0736266942834935,
      "4": 0.09277171573657736,
      "5": 0.10785569115297632,
      "6": 0.11569583760407942,
      "7": 0.1145089925649565,
      "8": 0.1045703698026037,
      "9": 0.08810993578295657,
      "10": 0.06849964430984275,
      "11": 0.04913590267445211,
      "12": 0.032520465402021595,
      "13": 0.019859200307580392,
      "14": 0.01118958426673708,
      "15": 0.005817191180046321,
      "16": 0.0027903579175411228
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 7 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "NYY 7 - 4 MIN",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0997,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.35,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 3,
      "simulation_margin": 3,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 3,
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4725,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.58,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 3,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.4725,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 1.28,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0997,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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          "11": 0.04798361888019368,
          "12": 0.0310571818791933,
          "13": 0.018466685020156318,
          "14": 0.010087270979338368,
          "15": 0.005061931728664888,
          "16": 0.002333547948735894
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.882039928752512,
      "home_runs": 3.3060144924302977,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_OAK@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreOAK 2 - 6 TB

Final confidence76.7%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 72.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=195

H2H base featurehome net 17.0 · absolute 17.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.6325

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.741061147358707-4.574834332750237	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	2-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.53372,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.76686,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.76686,
    "away_win_probability": 0.23314
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.53372,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 6-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "OAK 2 - 6 TB",
    "confidence": 0.76686,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 195,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5385,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.72925,
    "published_confidence": 0.76686,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 17.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1062,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.1217,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.724,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.6325
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.0225791368566172
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.02244943847670683
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02232899058574946
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02220072908831507
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.020968164945939397
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.022281650595237033,
      "1": 0.03575510815719501,
      "2": 0.05297611029105141,
      "3": 0.07247250519643149,
      "4": 0.091541434889928,
      "5": 0.10676118661300192,
      "6": 0.11496358645235859,
      "7": 0.11430321617309402,
      "8": 0.10493197136465009,
      "9": 0.08894231902044968,
      "10": 0.06960818349178717,
      "11": 0.050299467482961116,
      "12": 0.033559672114361276,
      "13": 0.020673940681311367,
      "14": 0.011759261756312745,
      "15": 0.006175726928155691,
      "16": 0.002994658791713424
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.10709260571583397,
      "1": 0.16105118763616624,
      "2": 0.19640250929344566,
      "3": 0.19422663536164722,
      "4": 0.1557575817477006,
      "5": 0.10129039368469415,
      "6": 0.0534153374884397,
      "7": 0.02284243241337851,
      "8": 0.0079213166586939
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 2 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "OAK 2 - 6 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0451,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.074,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 4,
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6325,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 2,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.7669,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.7669,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 4,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.6325,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.724,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0451,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.85,
        "new_value": 1.95,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T22:36:25.068887+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-16T22:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.76686,
      "confidence": 0.76686,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.7726,
      "confidence": 0.7726,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
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        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
          "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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          "margin": 4,
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      },
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        "home_net_margin": 17.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 17.0,
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            "home_margin": 1.0
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            "home_margin": 4.0
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            "home_margin": 8.0
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.8177,
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        "quality_edge": 1.6325,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.1217,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
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          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
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        "adjusted_score": {
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          "7": 0.02071127340325226,
          "8": 0.006782658282686524
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.741061147358707,
      "home_runs": 4.574834332750237,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_PHI@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPHI

Published scorePHI 5 - 4 WAS

Final confidence51.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.4% · weight 50.0% · n=362

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1908

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.5499902260380045-3.4510801153902935	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.019666,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.509833,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.490167,
    "away_win_probability": 0.509833
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.019666,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.50983329725,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 362,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5635,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5368,
    "published_confidence": 0.509833,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0173,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0173,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2698,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.044,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1908
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02010119433806332
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01999671237119218
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01976024391572105
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019657534140597965
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0181764121314904
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04715652114891833,
      "1": 0.07424808322079386,
      "2": 0.10391672996724131,
      "3": 0.12928330183819747,
      "4": 0.142973693384395,
      "5": 0.14054861652958658,
      "6": 0.12281566144934478,
      "7": 0.09539764764133617,
      "8": 0.06586858254932937,
      "9": 0.040427390318955855,
      "10": 0.022056156517830123,
      "11": 0.010696475486725,
      "12": 0.004611139947346247
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04540114621347763,
      "1": 0.07157878764799067,
      "2": 0.10057884948622847,
      "3": 0.1259603308504098,
      "4": 0.14059365651287906,
      "5": 0.13986287895235097,
      "6": 0.12400637298850357,
      "7": 0.09799193892045895,
      "8": 0.06901468352419375,
      "9": 0.04332089842570404,
      "10": 0.024235847602636456,
      "11": 0.012084363353796987,
      "12": 0.005370245521369767
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 WAS",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0015,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.114,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PHI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
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          {
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          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020466252188922753
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04534989066708535,
          "1": 0.07317725880099789,
          "2": 0.10429614745543388,
          "3": 0.13129634402414353,
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          "5": 0.14338313701019462,
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          "7": 0.09530429450887047,
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          "9": 0.038556340956254515,
          "10": 0.02035756538608651,
          "11": 0.009493975391953432,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "1": 0.07045256578188153,
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          "3": 0.12782441286152654,
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          "7": 0.0981016076976421,
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          "10": 0.022498193874756676,
          "11": 0.010803792154395963,
          "12": 0.004595228875756989
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.5499902260380045,
      "home_runs": 3.4510801153902935,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_SD@COL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreSD 7 - 5 COL

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 71.8% → blended 63.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=365

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.2816

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.532080903361251-4.866854319419893	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.47,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 7-5",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 7 - 5 COL",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.718209,
    "sample_size": 365,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.637204,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.457,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.956,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.2816
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.013694859057718525
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      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.013566519874610614
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      {
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        "probability": 0.013448328509250993
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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      "4": 0.11622623717525205,
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      "6": 0.12541892884629074,
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      "6": 0.10262363074071848,
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      "11": 0.06577560264826661,
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      "13": 0.03353984632824205,
      "14": 0.021537153798611514,
      "15": 0.012884521666051587,
      "16": 0.00718126644653422,
      "17": 0.0037289497495791345,
      "18": 0.0018039511422020436
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    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 7 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SD 7 - 5 COL",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0006,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.166,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6824,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.2816,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.956,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0006,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.6667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T00:36:36.771163+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-17T00:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.422542,
      "confidence": 0.577458,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      },
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1987,
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          "17": 0.0031865763974033186
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        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.532080903361251,
      "home_runs": 4.866854319419893,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_SEA@LAA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreSEA 5 - 4 LAA

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.4% · weight 50.0% · n=474

H2H base featurehome net -7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1083

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.218378261730815-4.017284231972099	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010432,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505216,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494784,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505216
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010432,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA",
    "confidence": 0.5052157275,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 474,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5272,
    "published_confidence": 0.505216,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1968,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.056,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1083
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019831378612182787
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019819459703979327
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019589262852377887
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01957748945879407
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01786528528698756
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.046444128552184806,
      "1": 0.07316561983538139,
      "2": 0.1025664989446107,
      "3": 0.1279458618456783,
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      "5": 0.14029247662753902,
      "6": 0.12331667528347692,
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      "8": 0.06713722250550297,
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      "10": 0.022918906003842644,
      "11": 0.011240677717384781,
      "12": 0.004905839623818033
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04472243009908321,
      "1": 0.07054486033606605,
      "2": 0.0992784738304907,
      "3": 0.12465064694662582,
      "4": 0.13963159909412112,
      "5": 0.13954767874524115,
      "6": 0.12442603217290675,
      "7": 0.09898049416193765,
      "8": 0.07024860647707133,
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      "12": 0.005694917008491527
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA",
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    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0746,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.014,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6129,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 0
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "probability_after": 0.492588,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -7.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.4,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0404,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0404,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 151,
          "wins": 58,
          "losses": 93,
          "win_pct": 0.3841059602649007,
          "runs_scored": 612,
          "runs_allowed": 685,
          "run_differential": -73,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.48344370860927155,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SEA",
          "games": 152,
          "wins": 70,
          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.4605263157894737,
          "runs_scored": 617,
          "runs_allowed": 678,
          "run_differential": -61,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.40131578947368424,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0821,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0764,
        "quality_edge": -0.1083,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1968,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1968,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.056,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.1083
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020667666716741848
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          {
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04463978862952269,
          "1": 0.07207212929852612,
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          "5": 0.14314534746608218,
          "6": 0.12495019999366762,
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          "10": 0.021203366474484352,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "2": 0.09948450885505018,
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          "7": 0.09916979590158309,
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          "10": 0.02337813394118978,
          "11": 0.011354359956973708,
          "12": 0.004889751753214779
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.218378261730815,
      "home_runs": 4.017284231972099,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260916_SF@STL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSF

Published scoreSF 5 - 4 STL

Final confidence51.4%

Calibrationraw 56.3% → blended 55.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=464

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2396

Simulation variance1.95

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.8687612445370494-4.358401094119014	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.02716,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.51358,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.48642,
    "away_win_probability": 0.51358
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.02716,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SF wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SF 5 - 4 STL",
    "confidence": 0.5135796,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.563347,
    "sample_size": 464,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5431,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.553223,
    "published_confidence": 0.51358,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.244,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2396
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02102248847046888
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020880931942687444
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01994756416953203
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019813245726427498
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019539828026193758
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05240099549842188,
      "1": 0.08218183564017031,
      "2": 0.11367226127733278,
      "3": 0.13866776741881556,
      "4": 0.1491897235676727,
      "5": 0.14156133744496333,
      "6": 0.11846573873426837,
      "7": 0.0874345821344892,
      "8": 0.056913602017195045,
      "9": 0.03267316970099299,
      "10": 0.01654279264940553,
      "11": 0.007387011005175168,
      "12": 0.002909182911097082
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04562881214479516,
      "1": 0.07192537424324454,
      "2": 0.10101381990411144,
      "3": 0.126396531277778,
      "4": 0.14091110277399935,
      "5": 0.13996226712770748,
      "6": 0.12386038352181448,
      "7": 0.0976583920012971,
      "8": 0.06860289051830373,
      "9": 0.042936926844203006,
      "10": 0.02394281426250597,
      "11": 0.011895292694360108,
      "12": 0.00526539268587957
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SF 5 - 4 STL",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SF 5 - 4 STL",
      "winner": "SF"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0678,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.454,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SF",
      "model_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner": "SF",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SF",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SF",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2396,
      "winner": "SF",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SF",
    "display_confidence": 0.5136,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5894,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5136,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2396,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.244,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0678,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 8
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-15T09:04:57.841906+00:00",
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    "changes": [
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T15:36:25.484131+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-16T17:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.479498,
      "confidence": 0.520502,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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    "diagnostics": {
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "reasons": [
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        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 7,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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        "home_net_margin": -9.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.8,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
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        "evidence": [
          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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          "losses": 77,
          "win_pct": 0.4934210526315789,
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          "runs_allowed": 701,
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.08552631578947369,
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        "away": {
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          "losses": 89,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3816,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0789,
        "quality_edge": 0.2396,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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          "recent_quality_edge": -0.244,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
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      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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          },
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.141088389038151,
          "4": 0.1523953095198904,
          "5": 0.1441933482339858,
          "6": 0.11951217579040657,
          "7": 0.08677055596856291,
          "8": 0.05518561765548632,
          "9": 0.030744875285544884,
          "10": 0.015004200680631753,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.12556868935514479,
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          "12": 0.004500331256009574
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.8687612445370494,
      "home_runs": 4.358401094119014,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260916	20260916_ATL@CHC	CHC	53.0%	49.3%	56.0%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	4-8	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.493133, "sample_size": 334, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5599, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.526516, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.1086, "recent_quality_edge": -0.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0678 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01737043610542093 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016742445737479395 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016560547227566086 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016454432702909614 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016308021753123 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03518278940067432, "1": 0.055891370196939134, "2": 0.08034483858400907, "3": 0.10451291153191407, "4": 0.12302139531280097, "5": 0.13103583740753313, "6": 0.12629852147328305, "7": 0.11015524543926061, "8": 0.08693823850259473, "9": 0.06208908053687597, "10": 0.040125306107591394, "11": 0.023464982065993886, "12": 0.012417118698916877, "13": 0.005945935267137071, "14": 0.002576429474475707 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.036487417335731714, "1": 0.0579063671474223, "2": 0.08299380351999093, "3": 0.10742396305597975, "4": 0.12557200402920968, "5": 0.13256248404318066, "6": 0.12638181702965204, "7": 0.10881398358144803, "8": 0.08460986021980967, "9": 0.059414630230255255, "10": 0.03767922598599815, "11": 0.02157976446814746, "12": 0.011161628946813726, "13": 0.005213682914026966, "14": 0.002199367492333698 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1456, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.078, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0678, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_BAL@NYM	NYM	53.0%	60.5%	55.8%	50.0%	5.0-7.0	7-1	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.605469, "sample_size": 364, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.581584, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0225, "away_run_delta": 0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0793, "recent_quality_edge": 0.312, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0576 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0163164121749971 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01578524042146223 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015621518701873508 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015456737592015225 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015354445877736916 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.02694014743182345, "1": 0.04307000645250115, "2": 0.0631058477248246, "3": 0.08473912457840053, "4": 0.10428408636235428, "5": 0.11761746307801073, "6": 0.121575278888312, "7": 0.1151697544348803, "8": 0.09998878859987387, "9": 0.07955800282421185, "10": 0.05801444441051379, "11": 0.03877109816022502, "12": 0.023746508673353355, "13": 0.0133294162575533, "14": 0.006857127016388197, "15": 0.0032329051067732833 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03804985247619366, "1": 0.06031455515576007, "2": 0.08613890496984228, "3": 0.1108369661593198, "4": 0.12849255905244178, "5": 0.1342083055387153, "6": 0.126295789885398, "7": 0.10707952090717714, "8": 0.08179599337432726, "9": 0.05629446659713662, "10": 0.03490659213415397, "11": 0.01950101697254575, "12": 0.009815561189427115, "13": 0.004451240655057202, "14": 0.0018186749325042138 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 7 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "BAL 5 - 7 NYM", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0324, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.038, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0576, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_BOS@TEX	BOS	52.8%	47.8%	55.0%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	3-7	miss	Fundamental Edge Target Review (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.478051, "sample_size": 665, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5504, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.514225, "published_confidence": 0.527872, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.05, "away_run_delta": 0.05, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.9172, "recent_quality_edge": -0.124, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6396 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023566633917082327 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022829896822194707 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02211650941330357 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022093126195061784 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.021425105925154116 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0540389966879564, "1": 0.0846470289694046, "2": 0.11665270351162603, "3": 0.141434885750081, "4": 0.15086792815774264, "5": 0.14158457949515343, "6": 0.11689976308107533, "7": 0.0849160830959147, "8": 0.054268138212894654, "9": 0.03051255239319142, "10": 0.015093529245242427, "11": 0.006568734516687378, "12": 0.0025150768830298703 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06030801558289463, "1": 0.09402519158291643, "2": 0.12776784064832203, "3": 0.15132372467078956, "4": 0.1562070494693996, "5": 0.14054078515921678, "6": 0.1102077817626688, "7": 0.07532346431769224, "8": 0.04487003936293158, "9": 0.02329650405422261, "10": 0.01054224724827715, "11": 0.0041579932517526895, "12": 0.0014293628889158712 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 6 - 5 TEX", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BOS 6 - 5 TEX", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0576, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.124, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6396, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_CHW@CLE	CLE	55.7%	56.5%	56.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-6	hit	Variance Applied (-0.5083)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.56508, "sample_size": 334, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5689, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.56699, "published_confidence": 0.556513, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3159, "recent_quality_edge": 0.272, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1101 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02096912506082598 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020789023710197366 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019718257295206917 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01960158258485394 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01954889950080167 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04325311790650724, "1": 0.06829716236690934, "2": 0.09641134558534721, "3": 0.12167290362016003, "4": 0.1372776524784499, "5": 0.13846692865452961, "6": 0.12486264144885746, "7": 0.10066053184604958, "8": 0.07254812070305423, "9": 0.046744805463985, "10": 0.026926554823326995, "11": 0.01386655144821223, "12": 0.0063840515923426246, "13": 0.002627632062268433 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05462373661868563, "1": 0.08552558380705494, "2": 0.11770901774525712, "3": 0.1424040923475909, "4": 0.1514377856473097, "5": 0.14156147446412448, "6": 0.11632014917778986, "7": 0.08401636151839258, "8": 0.05334231198060195, "9": 0.029770000826462382, "10": 0.014604439854759765, "11": 0.006297816588318595, "12": 0.002387229423652174 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0454, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.202, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1101, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_DET@TOR	DET	58.0%	75.4%	55.7%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	1-5	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.753922, "sample_size": 271, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5572, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.655561, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7746, "recent_quality_edge": -1.0, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.8535 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017624688071098158 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.017161487913340826 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016719212558420984 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01665883451177642 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016384933125405027 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.052439092515736606, "1": 0.08223924092372004, "2": 0.1137419402416088, "3": 0.138733002345789, "4": 0.14923014166717985, "5": 0.14156338248892464, "6": 0.11843032588506962, "7": 0.08737607483308418, "8": 0.05685121510405944, "9": 0.03262154945948508, "10": 0.01650771767507126, "11": 0.007366939335701419, "12": 0.0028993775245701285 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.024252362114450286, "1": 0.038855052489601055, "2": 0.05729248105190064, "3": 0.07775072251691481, "4": 0.09711088480734281, "5": 0.11163183473302427, "6": 0.11810407652366621, "7": 0.11500014488772108, "8": 0.1030596256972612, "9": 0.08500322597396684, "10": 0.0645266218472363, "11": 0.045081579541158046, "12": 0.028987849184751207, "13": 0.017154953137314424, "14": 0.009343718648790206, "15": 0.004683889528601243, "16": 0.0021609773162993575 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 7 - 4 TOR", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 7 - 4 TOR", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.015, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.07, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8535, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_KC@HOU	KC	50.6%	53.6%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	5-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.535585, "sample_size": 464, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5431, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.539342, "published_confidence": 0.505512, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.25, "home_run_delta": 0.0062, "away_run_delta": -0.0062, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3974, "recent_quality_edge": 0.092, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2905 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0202017037955472 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020061796836167163 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019822955207144156 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019685671272233207 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018293161652810846 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04742541086274814, "1": 0.07465635939282286, "2": 0.10442480844391046, "3": 0.12978417490198282, "4": 0.14332467555254366, "5": 0.1406375745486761, "6": 0.12262046033021466, "7": 0.09499608122578175, "8": 0.06539275157375699, "9": 0.039997671315591794, "10": 0.021738069668992378, "11": 0.01049756129340601, "12": 0.004504400889572444 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04565729549716513, "1": 0.07196872765705406, "2": 0.10106819596817156, "3": 0.12645099453098038, "4": 0.1409506333620908, "5": 0.13997447933389803, "6": 0.12384193707069342, "7": 0.09761659589112029, "8": 0.0685514472215108, "9": 0.04288907142032627, "10": 0.02390637380641219, "11": 0.011871833991435678, "12": 0.005252414249141331 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 5 - 4 HOU", "winner": "KC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 5 - 4 HOU", "winner": "KC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0982, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.267, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "KC", "model_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner": "KC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "KC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "KC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2905, "winner": "KC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_LAD@CIN	LAD	58.0%	92.0%	55.1%	50.0%	8.0-4.0	2-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 205, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5512, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.7356, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -24.0, "absolute_net_margin": 24.0, "home_average_margin": -4.8, "home_run_delta": -0.1385, "away_run_delta": 0.1385, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -13.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -2.3974, "recent_quality_edge": -1.408, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -2.0511 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.014990204262441135 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014663280713003053 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.014623747419239157 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.014353752621905167 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014304815980502037 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04828695460303552, "1": 0.07596341685600415, "2": 0.10604697368110867, "3": 0.13137453150273878, "4": 0.1444252719764926, "5": 0.14089459098506002, "6": 0.12197323994793176, "7": 0.09370308991549565, "8": 0.06387962783577628, "9": 0.038644701324985604, "10": 0.0207461085410764, "11": 0.009883310717629048, "12": 0.004178182112665742 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01392628453401847, "1": 0.022508219167328192, "2": 0.03407442303341306, "3": 0.048316714042417, "4": 0.06417232512603054, "5": 0.07983248791783921, "6": 0.0930235816812997, "7": 0.10152849644894367, "8": 0.10379211378519002, "9": 0.09938532519600488, "10": 0.08913775131674453, "11": 0.07488288863817887, "12": 0.05892302149291993, "13": 0.04342791036949304, "14": 0.029980188647215054, "15": 0.01938569136411501, "16": 0.011741125532234317, "17": 0.006660696928852158, "18": 0.0035392490094329453, "19": 0.0017615057683292605 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 8 - 4 CIN", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 8 - 4 CIN", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1008, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.758, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 2.0511, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_MIA@ARI	MIA	55.5%	51.4%	56.0%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	4-3	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5136, "sample_size": 391, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5601, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53685, "published_confidence": 0.554548, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": -3.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0865, "away_run_delta": 0.0865, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0099, "recent_quality_edge": 0.212, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0806 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016685410950520462 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016641786908014523 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015958233724344784 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01591651088824713 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015721616869690955 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03789732452427711, "1": 0.060079703001456236, "2": 0.08583318307800701, "3": 0.11050727623298659, "4": 0.12821379225033652, "5": 0.1340561775303461, "6": 0.12631273322528708, "7": 0.10725453111720196, "8": 0.08207150159179998, "9": 0.05659490367877319, "10": 0.03516984754506155, "11": 0.019695719985997256, "12": 0.009939887102965079, "13": 0.004520633063345537, "14": 0.0018527860721591137 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.030473636028181213, "1": 0.04858429724569103, "2": 0.0705960878102848, "3": 0.09349285119420321, "4": 0.11284679641737555, "5": 0.12414039557593193, "6": 0.12446581170601713, "7": 0.1137365595018295, "8": 0.09472468250221901, "9": 0.07190172175004984, "10": 0.049742600056752975, "11": 0.031363948687071895, "12": 0.018023787044809655, "13": 0.009440052739061337, "14": 0.004506255935104961, "15": 0.0019605158054160597 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 7 - 5 ARI", "winner": "MIA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 7 - 5 ARI", "winner": "MIA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0289, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.002, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIA", "model_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner": "MIA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.1667, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0806, "winner": "MIA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_MIL@PIT	MIL	56.0%	81.5%	56.4%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	5-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.814848, "sample_size": 365, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5644, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.689624, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3609, "recent_quality_edge": -0.72, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1366 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021890884073925188 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021719854238353965 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02063156587481356 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.020470374882835794 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020070430749180773 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.077635436917013, "1": 0.11947658535186335, "2": 0.1561424413754446, "3": 0.17329039521547332, "4": 0.16332150827197936, "5": 0.13071566445346017, "6": 0.08884382557968173, "7": 0.05127931674180748, "8": 0.025134634375281913, "9": 0.010462085799637035, "10": 0.00369810591835804 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03175599649456203, "1": 0.05058064498671807, "2": 0.07328751198509659, "3": 0.0965967669306616, "4": 0.11581963746014158, "5": 0.12632485514679306, "6": 0.1253379000685352, "7": 0.11312615256610828, "8": 0.09288179873013172, "9": 0.06937215968189271, "10": 0.04713318743691264, "11": 0.029131000675217508, "12": 0.016378381906284028, "13": 0.00837671194841836, "14": 0.0038972939825266018 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PIT", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 3 PIT", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.053, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.93, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1366, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_NYY@MIN	NYY	58.0%	89.0%	53.6%	50.0%	7.0-4.0	4-5	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.889739, "sample_size": 194, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5361, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.712919, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.5762, "recent_quality_edge": -1.28, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.4725 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018216357321529462 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.018029488080892362 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.017787957550621767 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01760548297234584 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016981923031031014 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06190454908444986, "1": 0.0964045942404002, "2": 0.13055484479491067, "3": 0.15374760163363532, "4": 0.1574504122081498, "5": 0.14021657330763748, "6": 0.10858628921988579, "7": 0.07312581675582587, "8": 0.04282393418217393, "9": 0.02180833406522384, "10": 0.009657806830508764, "11": 0.0037192436771983236 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.022707932069490386, "1": 0.03642640406040151, "2": 0.05391408088424329, "3": 0.0736266942834935, "4": 0.09277171573657736, "5": 0.10785569115297632, "6": 0.11569583760407942, "7": 0.1145089925649565, "8": 0.1045703698026037, "9": 0.08810993578295657, "10": 0.06849964430984275, "11": 0.04913590267445211, "12": 0.032520465402021595, "13": 0.019859200307580392, "14": 0.01118958426673708, "15": 0.005817191180046321, "16": 0.0027903579175411228 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 7 - 4 MIN", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 7 - 4 MIN", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0997, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.35, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.4725, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_OAK@TB	TB	76.7%	92.0%	53.8%	50.0%	2.0-6.0	3-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (4.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 195, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5385, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.72925, "published_confidence": 0.76686, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 17.0, "absolute_net_margin": 17.0, "home_average_margin": 4.25, "home_run_delta": 0.1062, "away_run_delta": -0.1062, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.1217, "recent_quality_edge": 0.724, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.6325 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.0225791368566172 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02244943847670683 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02232899058574946 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02220072908831507 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.020968164945939397 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.022281650595237033, "1": 0.03575510815719501, "2": 0.05297611029105141, "3": 0.07247250519643149, "4": 0.091541434889928, "5": 0.10676118661300192, "6": 0.11496358645235859, "7": 0.11430321617309402, "8": 0.10493197136465009, "9": 0.08894231902044968, "10": 0.06960818349178717, "11": 0.050299467482961116, "12": 0.033559672114361276, "13": 0.020673940681311367, "14": 0.011759261756312745, "15": 0.006175726928155691, "16": 0.002994658791713424 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.10709260571583397, "1": 0.16105118763616624, "2": 0.19640250929344566, "3": 0.19422663536164722, "4": 0.1557575817477006, "5": 0.10129039368469415, "6": 0.0534153374884397, "7": 0.02284243241337851, "8": 0.0079213166586939 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 2 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "OAK 2 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0451, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.074, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.6325, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_PHI@WAS	PHI	51.0%	51.0%	56.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-0	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 362, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5635, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5368, "published_confidence": 0.509833, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.6, "home_run_delta": -0.0173, "away_run_delta": 0.0173, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2698, "recent_quality_edge": -0.044, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1908 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02010119433806332 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01999671237119218 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01976024391572105 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019657534140597965 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0181764121314904 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04715652114891833, "1": 0.07424808322079386, "2": 0.10391672996724131, "3": 0.12928330183819747, "4": 0.142973693384395, "5": 0.14054861652958658, "6": 0.12281566144934478, "7": 0.09539764764133617, "8": 0.06586858254932937, "9": 0.040427390318955855, "10": 0.022056156517830123, "11": 0.010696475486725, "12": 0.004611139947346247 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04540114621347763, "1": 0.07157878764799067, "2": 0.10057884948622847, "3": 0.1259603308504098, "4": 0.14059365651287906, "5": 0.13986287895235097, "6": 0.12400637298850357, "7": 0.09799193892045895, "8": 0.06901468352419375, "9": 0.04332089842570404, "10": 0.024235847602636456, "11": 0.012084363353796987, "12": 0.005370245521369767 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 WAS", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 5 - 4 WAS", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0015, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.114, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PHI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1908, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_SD@COL	SD	53.0%	71.8%	55.6%	50.0%	7.0-5.0	9-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.718209, "sample_size": 365, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5562, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.637204, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.457, "recent_quality_edge": -0.956, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.2816 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013694859057718525 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013566519874610614 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013448328509250993 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.01332229964778043 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.012992704899441838 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.031940430449542825, "1": 0.05086713965195095, "2": 0.07367102916272278, "3": 0.09703290278948101, "4": 0.11622623717525205, "5": 0.12660539103579638, "6": 0.12541892884629074, "7": 0.11298917636429641, "8": 0.09257068247711671, "9": 0.06897202158853304, "10": 0.046734253775067444, "11": 0.028797881264680497, "12": 0.016137959757805995, "13": 0.008224312175066638, "14": 0.0038116534863964564 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.01692026521197117, "1": 0.02727398892411904, "2": 0.04095839249156164, "3": 0.057304654280277055, "4": 0.07469467464851133, "5": 0.0907072776447142, "6": 0.10262363074071848, "7": 0.1081696359505453, "8": 0.10622240016184316, "9": 0.09718060588663753, "10": 0.08283156068028018, "11": 0.06577560264826661, "12": 0.0486616215993338, "13": 0.03353984632824205, "14": 0.021537153798611514, "15": 0.012884521666051587, "16": 0.00718126644653422, "17": 0.0037289497495791345, "18": 0.0018039511422020436 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 7 - 5 COL", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 7 - 5 COL", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0006, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.166, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2816, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_SEA@LAA	SEA	50.5%	51.0%	54.4%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 474, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5443, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5272, "published_confidence": 0.505216, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": -1.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0404, "away_run_delta": 0.0404, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1968, "recent_quality_edge": 0.056, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1083 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019831378612182787 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019819459703979327 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019589262852377887 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01957748945879407 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01786528528698756 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.046444128552184806, "1": 0.07316561983538139, "2": 0.1025664989446107, "3": 0.1279458618456783, "4": 0.1420264377178342, "5": 0.14029247662753902, "6": 0.12331667528347692, "7": 0.09645649353719196, "8": 0.06713722250550297, "9": 0.04158316180555431, "10": 0.022918906003842644, "11": 0.011240677717384781, "12": 0.004905839623818033 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04472243009908321, "1": 0.07054486033606605, "2": 0.0992784738304907, "3": 0.12465064694662582, "4": 0.13963159909412112, "5": 0.13954767874524115, "6": 0.12442603217290675, "7": 0.09898049416193765, "8": 0.07024860647707133, "9": 0.0444811021534266, "10": 0.025128299287230642, "11": 0.012664859687307515, "12": 0.005694917008491527 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 LAA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0746, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.014, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1083, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260916	20260916_SF@STL	SF	51.4%	56.3%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	6-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.563347, "sample_size": 464, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5431, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.553223, "published_confidence": 0.51358, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5, "recent_quality_edge": -0.244, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2396 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02102248847046888 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020880931942687444 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01994756416953203 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019813245726427498 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019539828026193758 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05240099549842188, "1": 0.08218183564017031, "2": 0.11367226127733278, "3": 0.13866776741881556, "4": 0.1491897235676727, "5": 0.14156133744496333, "6": 0.11846573873426837, "7": 0.0874345821344892, "8": 0.056913602017195045, "9": 0.03267316970099299, "10": 0.01654279264940553, "11": 0.007387011005175168, "12": 0.002909182911097082 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04562881214479516, "1": 0.07192537424324454, "2": 0.10101381990411144, "3": 0.126396531277778, "4": 0.14091110277399935, "5": 0.13996226712770748, "6": 0.12386038352181448, "7": 0.0976583920012971, "8": 0.06860289051830373, "9": 0.042936926844203006, "10": 0.02394281426250597, "11": 0.011895292694360108, "12": 0.00526539268587957 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.95, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 5 - 4 STL", "winner": "SF" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 5 - 4 STL", "winner": "SF" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0678, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.454, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SF", "model_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner": "SF", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SF", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SF", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2396, "winner": "SF", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 1.8333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3 }
R	{ "mae": 1.7, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4333 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.7, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3667 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.6, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.3333 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.3667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4333 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.9333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0667 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.9667, "mae_innings": 0.9889, "bias_outs": 1.2333 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260916

20260916_ATL@CHC

away

JR Ritchie

True

4.1

4.2

3/7

1/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5,
      "WHIP": 1.4310344827586208,
      "IP": 58.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.958,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4319,
      "sample_weight": 0.936,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0367,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.984,
      "walk_factor": 1.0917,
      "homer_factor": 1.0692,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.7,
      "bb_percent": 14.1,
      "woba": 0.324,
      "xwoba": 0.344,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 23.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 358,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702275",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 14.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 11.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 64.0,
            "Pitches": 267.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 2.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 12.8,
            "Pitches": 53.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3953,
            "WHIP": 1.4651,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76744,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.69767,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83721,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 36.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 163.0,
            "Pitches": 657.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.1,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 16.3,
            "Pitches": 65.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2018,
            "WHIP": 1.4312,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57798,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85321,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57798,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99083,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13761
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 256.0,
            "Pitches": 1023.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.0714,
            "R": 2.2857,
            "H": 3.3571,
            "BB": 2.5714,
            "SO": 3.7857,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 18.2857,
            "Pitches": 73.0714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.431,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81034,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91379,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-02T00:00:00"
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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    ],
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5855,
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        "runs_allowed": 587.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7566,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 152,
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        "runs_scored": 809.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9145,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3224,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702275",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702275",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "whiff_percent": 23.3,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702275",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 46,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 46,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.94471394313716,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 46,
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                "release_speed": 88.94471394313716,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9447,
              "release_spin_rate": 2346.8842,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0506,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3616,
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4319,
          "sample_weight": 0.936,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "702275",
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            "player_name": "JR Ritchie",
            "team": "ATL",
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            "espn_rank": 358,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 358,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
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              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 179,
              "era_value": 4.5,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 418,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 336,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
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              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 235,
              "ip_value": 58.0,
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              "h_value": 47.0,
              "h_rank": 272,
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": 205,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
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              "k_value": 53.0,
              "k_rank": 285,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.224137,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.431,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.18,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0344,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0858,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 5,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_ATL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_ATL@CHC

home

Shota Imanaga

True

5.1

6.0

-4

4/4

0/0

4/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.1211498973305953,
      "IP": 162.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.598,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1606,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9864,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0349,
      "walk_factor": 0.928,
      "homer_factor": 1.0293,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.6,
      "bb_percent": 5.6,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.6,
      "whiff_percent": 29.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 115,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 89.4
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.24,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 906.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.1,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.3,
            "Pitches": 90.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1227,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3681,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93865,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18405,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93865,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22086
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        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 162.1,
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            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 145.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 156.0,
            "HR": 34.0,
            "BF": 661.0,
            "Pitches": 2607.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4138,
            "R": 2.4828,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.2759,
            "SO": 5.3793,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8809,
            "WHIP": 1.1211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43121,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89322,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22793,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96099,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20945
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.406,
        "predicted_H": 4.888,
        "predicted_BB": 1.428,
        "predicted_SO": 5.164,
        "predicted_HR": 1.133,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1145,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2004
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.406,
          "final": 3.4751,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.888,
          "final": 4.522,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.428,
          "final": 0.8395,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.164,
          "final": 3.86,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1145,
          "final": 4.1145,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2004,
          "final": 1.2004,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.312883435582822,
        "WHIP": 1.1226993865030674,
        "K9": 8.447852760736195,
        "HR9": 1.987730061349693,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8697555786972013,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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      "opponent": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7566,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8618,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "684007",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "684007",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 86,
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            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "walk_factor": 0.928,
          "homer_factor": 1.0293,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_id": 5134630,
            "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 115,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 115,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 261,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 24,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 32,
              "era_value": 3.8809,
              "era_rank": 32.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 32,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 22,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 162.1,
              "ip_rank": 29,
              "h_value": 145.0,
              "h_rank": 32,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 36,
              "hr_value": 34.0,
              "hr_rank": 1,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 117,
              "k_value": 156.0,
              "k_rank": 30,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.64887,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.1211,
              "whip_rank": 17.0,
              "war_value": 1.63,
              "war_rank": 37.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9864,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9864,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0349,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_ATL@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_BAL@NYM

away

Chris Bassitt

True

5.0

6.2

-3

6/5

1/1

3/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.881918819188192,
      "WHIP": 1.5940959409594098,
      "IP": 90.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3539,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0301,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9434,
      "walk_factor": 0.99,
      "homer_factor": 0.9769,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.7,
      "woba": 0.356,
      "xwoba": 0.344,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 262,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3953,
            "WHIP": 1.5349,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48837,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15116,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38372,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 843.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 84.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6433,
            "WHIP": 1.4904,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51592,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1465,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34395,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76433,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13376
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 90.1,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 36.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 412.0,
            "Pitches": 1546.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.7222,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6667,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 22.8889,
            "Pitches": 85.8889
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8819,
            "WHIP": 1.5941,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54244,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19557,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39852,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73063,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1107
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.741,
        "predicted_H": 6.037,
        "predicted_BB": 2.012,
        "predicted_SO": 4.573,
        "predicted_HR": 0.729,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5701,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4911
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.741,
          "final": 3.7391,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.037,
          "final": 5.5788,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.012,
          "final": 1.5648,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.573,
          "final": 3.878,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.729,
          "final": 0.8487,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5701,
          "final": 4.5701,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4911,
          "final": 1.4911,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 60,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.643312101910828,
        "WHIP": 1.4904458598726114,
        "K9": 6.878980891719745,
        "HR9": 1.2038216560509554,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0286224654933407,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "player_name": "Chris Bassitt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
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              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4868,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 713.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2105,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6908,
        "offense_index": 0.9969,
        "defense_index": 0.9581,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.037
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.457,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 686.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.245,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.298,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.543,
        "offense_index": 0.9564,
        "defense_index": 0.9892,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0665
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0295,
        "offense_edge": -0.0031,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0436,
        "defense_strength": -0.0419,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0108,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0017,
        "run_prevention": 0.9957,
        "strikeout": 1.0044
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605135",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605135",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 388.0,
            "k_percent": 16.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.7,
            "woba": 0.356,
            "xwoba": 0.344,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3242,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.569,
            "whiff_percent": 21.1,
            "swing_percent": 45.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3986,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5557,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2556
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605135",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.28366178454208,
              "release_spin_rate": 2181.6361230482403,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.28366178454208,
                "release_spin_rate": 2181.6361230482403,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.2837,
              "release_spin_rate": 2181.6361,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2556,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8261,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3539,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0301,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9434,
          "walk_factor": 0.99,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605135",
            "espn_id": 33148,
            "player_name": "Chris Bassitt",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 262,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 262,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 425,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 134,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 142,
              "era_value": 4.8819,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 89,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 144,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 90.1,
              "ip_rank": 146,
              "h_value": 108.0,
              "h_rank": 112,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 115,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 167,
              "bb_value": 36.0,
              "bb_rank": 122,
              "k_value": 66.0,
              "k_rank": 209,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.575646,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38,
              "whip_value": 1.594,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.47,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0301,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0301,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.99,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9769,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9434,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_BAL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_BAL@NYM

home

Xzavion Curry

True

5.0

3.0

-6

4/6

1/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4363636363636365,
      "WHIP": 1.309090909090909,
      "IP": 18.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0044,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.965,
      "walk_factor": 1.0099,
      "homer_factor": 1.0003,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.322,
      "xwoba": 0.287,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 18.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 322,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.71,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4259,
        "prior_weight": 0.5741
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "675540",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 15.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 64.0,
            "Pitches": 238.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 12.8,
            "Pitches": 47.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 78.0,
            "Pitches": 287.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.875,
            "R": 0.875,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 1.5,
            "HR": 0.375,
            "BF": 9.75,
            "Pitches": 35.875
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4364,
            "WHIP": 1.3091,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38182,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16364
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 78.0,
            "Pitches": 287.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.875,
            "R": 0.875,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 1.5,
            "HR": 0.375,
            "BF": 9.75,
            "Pitches": 35.875
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4364,
            "WHIP": 1.3091,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38182,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.43636,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65455,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16364
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.768,
        "predicted_H": 3.593,
        "predicted_BB": 1.579,
        "predicted_SO": 3.174,
        "predicted_HR": 0.637,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1155,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3377
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5926,
      "form_weight": 0.4074,
      "form_reliability": 0.4259,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 3.71,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4259,
        "prior_weight": 0.5741
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.768,
          "final": 1.3129,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.593,
          "final": 3.8342,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.579,
          "final": 1.2359,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.174,
          "final": 3.6635,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.637,
          "final": 0.8521,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1155,
          "final": 4.1155,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3377,
          "final": 1.3377,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 18.1,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 16,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 12,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.4363636363636365,
        "WHIP": 1.309090909090909,
        "K9": 5.8909090909090915,
        "HR9": 1.4727272727272729,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-27T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9325891949085685,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.71,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4259,
          "prior_weight": 0.5741
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "675540",
      "player_name": "Xzavion Curry",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "before": 4.0,
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            "material": false
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.457,
        "runs_scored": 649.0,
        "runs_allowed": 686.0,
        "run_differential": -37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.245,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.298,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.543,
        "offense_index": 0.9564,
        "defense_index": 0.9892,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0665
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4868,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 713.0,
        "run_differential": -32.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2105,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6908,
        "offense_index": 0.9969,
        "defense_index": 0.9581,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.037
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0295,
        "offense_edge": -0.0436,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0031,
        "defense_strength": -0.0108,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0419,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9986,
        "run_prevention": 1.0021,
        "strikeout": 0.9994
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "675540",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "675540",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 67.0,
            "k_percent": 15.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.3,
            "woba": 0.322,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 26.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.9139,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2802,
            "whiff_percent": 18.0,
            "swing_percent": 46.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2242,
            "command_and_miss": -0.8293,
            "regression_edge": 1.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -1.0,
            "bb_edge": -0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.247
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "675540",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 42,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 42,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.43870600293396,
              "release_spin_rate": 2217.651750635692,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 42,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.43870600293396,
                "release_spin_rate": 2217.651750635692,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.4387,
              "release_spin_rate": 2217.6518,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.247,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.764,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0044,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0004,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.965,
          "walk_factor": 1.0099,
          "homer_factor": 1.0003,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.035,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "675540",
            "espn_id": 4204524,
            "player_name": "Xzavion Curry",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 322,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 322,
              "gp_value": 8.0,
              "gp_rank": 566,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 368,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 3.4363,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 541,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 580,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 18.1,
              "ip_rank": 538,
              "h_value": 16.0,
              "h_rank": 569,
              "er_value": 7.0,
              "er_rank": 611,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 456,
              "bb_value": 8.0,
              "bb_rank": 534,
              "k_value": 12.0,
              "k_rank": 577,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.8909087,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.309,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.25,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0002,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0002,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0045,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0001,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9842,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_BAL@NYM.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_BOS@TEX

away

Jake Bennett

True

5.2

4.2

-3

4/8

0/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6857142857142855,
      "WHIP": 1.0666666666666667,
      "IP": 105.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.833,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2058,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9825,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
      "walk_factor": 0.906,
      "homer_factor": 0.9999,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.281,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 126,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687562",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 395.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0824,
            "WHIP": 1.1294,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02353,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.10588,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.24706
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 807.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 80.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5523,
            "WHIP": 1.1686,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50581,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97674,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19186,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83721,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15698
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 105.0,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 44.0,
            "H": 93.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 418.0,
            "Pitches": 1462.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3889,
            "R": 2.4444,
            "H": 5.1667,
            "BB": 1.0556,
            "SO": 4.6111,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 23.2222,
            "Pitches": 81.2222
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6857,
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.40952,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.79048,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 4.5999,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0103404517176038,
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 69,
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        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 579.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5695,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.404,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 8.0
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 151,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 76,
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        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2781,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4371,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0194,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687562",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687562",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.9759,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687562",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.63459387941826,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 81,
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                "release_speed": 88.63459387941826,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6346,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2058,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "687562",
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            "player_name": "Jake Bennett",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 126,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 126,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 425,
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              "qs_value": 9.0,
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              "era_value": 3.6857,
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              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 45,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 89,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 105.0,
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              "h_value": 93.0,
              "h_rank": 126,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 146,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 139,
              "bb_value": 19.0,
              "bb_rank": 321,
              "k_value": 83.0,
              "k_rank": 154,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.1142855,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.0666,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.47,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9825,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_BOS@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_BOS@TEX

home

MacKenzie Gore

True

5.0

4.0

-3

3/2

4/3

2/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.620618556701031,
      "WHIP": 1.354639175257732,
      "IP": 161.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 31,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.215,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0469,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.996,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0194,
      "walk_factor": 1.004,
      "homer_factor": 1.0365,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.4,
      "woba": 0.319,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 173,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8611,
        "prior_weight": 0.1389
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 31,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 422.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 84.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7273,
            "WHIP": 1.9545,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63636,
            "H_per_IP": 1.27273,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.68182,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.0,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 229.0,
            "Pitches": 914.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.9,
            "Pitches": 91.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2353,
            "WHIP": 1.5098,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47059,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03922,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47059,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98039,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07843
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 31,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 161.2,
            "ER": 83.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 66.0,
            "SO": 172.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 704.0,
            "Pitches": 2791.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6774,
            "R": 2.6774,
            "H": 4.9355,
            "BB": 2.129,
            "SO": 5.5484,
            "HR": 0.5806,
            "BF": 22.7097,
            "Pitches": 90.0323
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6206,
            "WHIP": 1.3546,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5134,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94639,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40825,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06392,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11134
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.624,
        "predicted_H": 5.301,
        "predicted_BB": 2.534,
        "predicted_SO": 4.444,
        "predicted_HR": 0.303,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9217,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6327
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4087,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8611,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 31.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.624,
          "final": 2.7777,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.301,
          "final": 4.3606,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.534,
          "final": 3.1331,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.444,
          "final": 3.4452,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.303,
          "final": 0.1792,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9217,
          "final": 4.9217,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6327,
          "final": 1.6327,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.0,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.235294117647059,
        "WHIP": 1.5098039215686274,
        "K9": 8.823529411764707,
        "HR9": 0.7058823529411765,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9832043938060671,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 31.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8611,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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        ],
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4967,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2781,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1589,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4371,
        "offense_index": 0.926,
        "defense_index": 1.0122,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0369
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 151,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 69,
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        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 579.0,
        "run_differential": 86.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5695,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.404,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8344,
        "offense_index": 0.9806,
        "defense_index": 1.1713,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.4,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1413
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.074,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0194,
        "defense_strength": 0.0122,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.994,
        "run_prevention": 1.0046,
        "strikeout": 0.9962
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 679.0,
            "k_percent": 24.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.4,
            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.1549,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4527,
            "whiff_percent": 26.0,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.1943,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": -0.05,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0232
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.26328203603335,
              "release_spin_rate": 2169.03935351966,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.26328203603335,
                "release_spin_rate": 2169.03935351966,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2633,
              "release_spin_rate": 2169.0394,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0232,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.1658,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
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          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.996,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0194,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 173,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 173,
              "gp_value": 31.0,
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              "qs_value": 9.0,
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              "era_rank": 43.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 71,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 11,
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              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 161.2,
              "ip_rank": 32,
              "h_value": 153.0,
              "h_rank": 24,
              "er_value": 83.0,
              "er_rank": 12,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 67,
              "bb_value": 66.0,
              "bb_rank": 12,
              "k_value": 172.0,
              "k_rank": 22,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.575257,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18,
              "whip_value": 1.3546,
              "whip_rank": 41.0,
              "war_value": 1.06,
              "war_rank": 43.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.996,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.004,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0365,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0194,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_BOS@TEX.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_CHW@CLE

away

Anthony Kay

True

4.2

4.0

-2

-5

7/2

2/2

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.531034482758621,
      "WHIP": 1.3655172413793104,
      "IP": 145.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.929,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.345,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 1.0494,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.341,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 131,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 431.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2254,
            "WHIP": 1.4789,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80282,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1831,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29577,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84507,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16901
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 865.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.7,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 86.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0516,
            "WHIP": 1.3548,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56129,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10323,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25161,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8129,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13548
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 145.0,
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            "R": 78.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 118.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 652.0,
            "Pitches": 2583.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4333,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.9333,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 21.7333,
            "Pitches": 86.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.531,
            "WHIP": 1.3655,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50345,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01379,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35172,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81379,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13793
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.097,
        "predicted_H": 5.355,
        "predicted_BB": 1.475,
        "predicted_SO": 4.104,
        "predicted_HR": 0.732,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7272,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4033
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.097,
          "final": 3.8779,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.355,
          "final": 6.0301,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.475,
          "final": 1.6904,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.104,
          "final": 4.0613,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.732,
          "final": 0.4316,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7272,
          "final": 5.7272,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4033,
          "final": 1.4033,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.051612903225807,
        "WHIP": 1.3548387096774195,
        "K9": 7.316129032258065,
        "HR9": 1.2193548387096775,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.071166126886396,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "641743",
      "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "games": 151,
        "wins": 77,
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        "runs_scored": 708.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.245,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6887,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4437,
        "offense_index": 1.0411,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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      "opponent": {
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0411,
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0027,
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        "strikeout": 1.0061
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.0,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
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            "primary_pitch": {
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                "release_speed": 90.11527035155325,
                "release_spin_rate": 2287.987759702254,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1153,
              "release_spin_rate": 2287.9878,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0149,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1066,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.345,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0293,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9651,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 1.0494,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "641743",
            "espn_id": 40947,
            "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 131,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 131,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 235,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 36,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 93,
              "era_value": 4.531,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 45,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 145.0,
              "ip_rank": 59,
              "h_value": 147.0,
              "h_rank": 29,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 25,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 44,
              "k_value": 118.0,
              "k_rank": 79,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.324138,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.3655,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.41,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0293,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0494,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9651,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 5 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_CHW@CLE

home

Parker Messick

True

6.0

6/7

2/0

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.506769825918762,
      "WHIP": 1.0328820116054158,
      "IP": 172.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.943,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5886,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.95,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
      "walk_factor": 0.954,
      "homer_factor": 0.8928,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.9,
      "woba": 0.268,
      "xwoba": 0.272,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 7,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 495.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 99.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 1.0333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 68.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 967.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 6.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 96.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0884,
            "WHIP": 0.9613,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23204,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77901,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.18232,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12707,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09945
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 172.1,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 131.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 178.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 685.0,
            "Pitches": 2702.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6552,
            "R": 1.7931,
            "H": 4.5172,
            "BB": 1.6207,
            "SO": 6.1379,
            "HR": 0.5517,
            "BF": 23.6207,
            "Pitches": 93.1724
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5068,
            "WHIP": 1.0329,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27853,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76015,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03288,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09284
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.683,
        "predicted_H": 4.875,
        "predicted_BB": 1.472,
        "predicted_SO": 6.667,
        "predicted_HR": 0.556,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5244,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0578
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.683,
          "final": 1.8137,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.875,
          "final": 5.3387,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.472,
          "final": 1.6896,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.667,
          "final": 5.5678,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.556,
          "final": 0.3268,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5244,
          "final": 2.5244,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0578,
          "final": 1.0578,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 68,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 2.088397790055249,
        "WHIP": 0.9613259668508288,
        "K9": 10.14364640883978,
        "HR9": 0.8950276243093923,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7279666080840435,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5066,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 635.0,
        "run_differential": -10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0658,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1118,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1776,
        "offense_index": 0.913,
        "defense_index": 1.0781,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0024
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5099,
        "runs_scored": 708.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
        "run_differential": 37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.245,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6887,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4437,
        "offense_index": 1.0411,
        "defense_index": 1.0135,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0317
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0293,
        "offense_edge": -0.087,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0411,
        "defense_strength": 0.0781,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0135,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0019,
        "run_prevention": 0.9973,
        "strikeout": 0.9976
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 657.0,
            "k_percent": 26.0,
            "bb_percent": 6.9,
            "woba": 0.268,
            "xwoba": 0.272,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.8976,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2942,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8785,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4121,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": 0.575,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0117
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 100,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 100,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.0585793270255,
              "release_spin_rate": 2102.105433699751,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 100,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.0585793270255,
                "release_spin_rate": 2102.105433699751,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0586,
              "release_spin_rate": 2102.1054,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0117,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0839,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5886,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.95,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0274,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 0.8928,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_id": 4619898,
            "player_name": "Parker Messick",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 7,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 7,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 261,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 24,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 32,
              "era_value": 2.5067,
              "era_rank": 5.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 25,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 36,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 172.1,
              "ip_rank": 14,
              "h_value": 131.0,
              "h_rank": 64,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 123,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 92,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 57,
              "k_value": 178.0,
              "k_rank": 16,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.2959385,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.0328,
              "whip_rank": 6.0,
              "war_value": 5.71,
              "war_rank": 7.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8928,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 114,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_CHW@CLE.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_DET@TOR

away

Keider Montero

True

5.2

4.0

-5

-1

6/6

1/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5510204081632653,
      "WHIP": 1.0272108843537415,
      "IP": 147.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.528,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0563,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9952,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9303,
      "walk_factor": 0.93,
      "homer_factor": 0.9836,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.5,
      "bb_percent": 5.7,
      "woba": 0.275,
      "xwoba": 0.292,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 18.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 43,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 147.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.551,
      "season_WHIP": 1.027,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672456",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 12.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 395.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.4,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 79.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.0946,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85135,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24324,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 206.0,
            "Pitches": 767.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 76.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9866,
            "WHIP": 1.0671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8255,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24161,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66443,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16107
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.0,
            "ER": 58.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 117.0,
            "BB": 34.0,
            "SO": 98.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 593.0,
            "Pitches": 2158.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9333,
            "R": 2.0667,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.1333,
            "SO": 3.2667,
            "HR": 0.5667,
            "BF": 19.7667,
            "Pitches": 71.9333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.551,
            "WHIP": 1.0272,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39456,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79592,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23129,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11565
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.345,
        "predicted_H": 4.339,
        "predicted_BB": 1.321,
        "predicted_SO": 3.237,
        "predicted_HR": 0.773,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1416,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1108
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.345,
          "final": 3.0242,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.339,
          "final": 5.431,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.321,
          "final": 1.1893,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.237,
          "final": 3.5501,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.773,
          "final": 0.8662,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1416,
          "final": 4.1416,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1108,
          "final": 1.1108,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.9865771812080535,
        "WHIP": 1.0671140939597314,
        "K9": 5.97986577181208,
        "HR9": 1.4496644295302012,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9441564927664565,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "672456",
      "player_name": "Keider Montero",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4768,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5298,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672456",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672456",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.5714,
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            "whiff_edge": -0.9571,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.011
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672456",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04450909891175,
              "release_spin_rate": 2356.4790670153343,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 80,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0445,
              "release_spin_rate": 2356.4791,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0563,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9952,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Keider Montero",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 43,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 235,
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              "l_rank": 66,
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              "hr_rank": 79,
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              "k_rank": 117,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 57,
              "whip_value": 1.0272,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.75,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9952,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_DET@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_DET@TOR

home

Max Scherzer

True

5.0

-2

5/3

1/3

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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    },
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      "k_percent": 17.3,
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      "xwoba": 0.323,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
      "whiff_percent": 20.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 15,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
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            "HR": 0.6,
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          },
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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            "IP": 49.0,
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            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
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            "Pitches": 838.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.8,
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            "H": 4.3,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.57143,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "season": {
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            "IP": 67.2,
            "ER": 48.0,
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            "H": 65.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
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            "Pitches": 1181.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 3.2,
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            "H": 4.3333,
            "BB": 1.8667,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3744,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.96059,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75369,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.089,
        "predicted_H": 4.538,
        "predicted_BB": 2.033,
        "predicted_SO": 4.153,
        "predicted_HR": 0.725,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4921,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.298
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 3.089,
          "final": 2.5928,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.538,
          "final": 4.2929,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.033,
          "final": 1.5623,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.153,
          "final": 4.9945,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.725,
          "final": 0.3947,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4921,
          "final": 5.4921,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.298,
          "final": 1.298,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.0,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.142857142857143,
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        "K9": 7.530612244897959,
        "HR9": 1.2857142857142858,
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        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.079702993245843,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 15.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.75,
          "prior_weight": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
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          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
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            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4934,
        "runs_scored": 614.0,
        "runs_allowed": 655.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2697,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0395,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3092,
        "offense_index": 0.8967,
        "defense_index": 1.0454,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0735
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4768,
        "runs_scored": 682.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5298,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5166,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.9868,
        "offense_index": 1.0026,
        "defense_index": 1.1299,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 35.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.15
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2235,
        "offense_edge": -0.1033,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0026,
        "defense_strength": 0.0454,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1299,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9923,
        "run_prevention": 1.0071,
        "strikeout": 0.9931
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 271.0,
            "k_percent": 17.3,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.323,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9896,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5476,
            "whiff_percent": 20.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2783,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5621,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.128
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.56237904532217,
              "release_spin_rate": 2269.379041029472,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.56237904532217,
                "release_spin_rate": 2269.379041029472,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.5624,
              "release_spin_rate": 2269.379,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.128,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9146,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2751,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0234,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9451,
          "walk_factor": 1.006,
          "homer_factor": 1.033,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_id": 28976,
            "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 806,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 806,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 465,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 139,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 126,
              "era_value": 6.3842,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 321,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 66,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 67.2,
              "ip_rank": 203,
              "h_value": 65.0,
              "h_rank": 186,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 123,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 110,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 195,
              "k_value": 51.0,
              "k_rank": 293,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.7832513,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38,
              "whip_value": 1.3743,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.61,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.006,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.033,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9451,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_DET@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_KC@HOU

away

Daniel Lynch IV

True

5.0

-1

2/2

3/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.5162790697674415,
      "WHIP": 1.1023255813953488,
      "IP": 71.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 53,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0804,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0068,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 0.974,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.6,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.279,
      "xwoba": 0.314,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 208,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 71.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.516,
      "season_WHIP": 1.102,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
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        },
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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        {
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          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      "total_change": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4371,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6358,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -11.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.5033,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3377,
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          "run_differential": -13.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0622,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.4389,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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          "components": {
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 56,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 56,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.7829260154076,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 56,
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                "release_speed": 89.7829260154076,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7829,
              "release_spin_rate": 2092.3747,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.0804,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "663738",
            "espn_id": 41227,
            "player_name": "Daniel Lynch IV",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 208,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 208,
              "gp_value": 53.0,
              "gp_rank": 98,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 201,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 3.5162,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 156,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 144,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 141,
              "hld_value": 13.0,
              "hld_rank": 52,
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              "ip_rank": 186,
              "h_value": 57.0,
              "h_rank": 208,
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": 221,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 276,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 276,
              "k_value": 49.0,
              "k_rank": 305,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.153488,
              "k_per_9_rank": 44,
              "whip_value": 1.1023,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.8,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0068,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0068,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.966,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9589,
            "adjusted": 2
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_KC@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_KC@HOU

home

Cristian Javier

True

4.2

5.1

5/5

3/3

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "sample_weight": 0.892,
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.0291,
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      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.4,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
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      "player_id": "664299",
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            "H": 3.8,
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            "HR": 0.6,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.81429,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.28571,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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            "IP": 43.1,
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            "R": 20.0,
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            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
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            "Pitches": 73.4
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.08462,
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        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.2667,
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            "H_per_IP": 1.04192,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.98802,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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        "predicted_H": 4.115,
        "predicted_BB": 1.431,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.1,
        "ER": 20,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9668733229161727,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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      "total_change": {
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        "losses": 75,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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            "barrel_edge": -0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7286,
            "bb_edge": -0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0801
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.41813925049985,
              "release_spin_rate": 2328.3245518037866,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 84,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.41813925049985,
                "release_spin_rate": 2328.3245518037866,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4181,
              "release_spin_rate": 2328.3246,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0801,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5723,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1562,
          "sample_weight": 0.892,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0133,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0291,
          "walk_factor": 1.0054,
          "homer_factor": 1.0292,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664299",
            "espn_id": 41261,
            "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 593,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 593,
              "gp_value": 15.0,
              "gp_rank": 465,
              "gs_value": 10.0,
              "gs_rank": 174,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 159,
              "era_value": 5.497,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 321,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 144,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 55.2,
              "ip_rank": 278,
              "h_value": 58.0,
              "h_rank": 205,
              "er_value": 34.0,
              "er_rank": 175,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 180,
              "bb_value": 23.0,
              "bb_rank": 250,
              "k_value": 55.0,
              "k_rank": 272,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.892216,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.455,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.11,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0048,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_KC@HOU.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_LAD@CIN

away

Blake Snell

True

6.0

1.0

-15

3/1

3/0

7/1

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.9115044247787611,
      "WHIP": 1.088495575221239,
      "IP": 37.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.381,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7465,
      "sample_weight": 0.524,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9365,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0671,
      "walk_factor": 1.0126,
      "homer_factor": 0.8526,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 33.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.235,
      "xwoba": 0.225,
      "barrel_percent": 1.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 14.0,
      "whiff_percent": 36.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 125,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 484.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.9419,
            "WHIP": 1.0116,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10465,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55814,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45349,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25581,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 154.0,
            "Pitches": 645.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.1429,
            "R": 1.2857,
            "H": 3.5714,
            "BB": 2.2857,
            "SO": 7.2857,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 92.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9115,
            "WHIP": 1.0885,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21239,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66372,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42478,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35398,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 154.0,
            "Pitches": 645.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.1429,
            "R": 1.2857,
            "H": 3.5714,
            "BB": 2.2857,
            "SO": 7.2857,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 92.1429
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9115,
            "WHIP": 1.0885,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21239,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66372,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42478,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35398,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.647,
        "predicted_H": 4.297,
        "predicted_BB": 2.395,
        "predicted_SO": 6.549,
        "predicted_HR": 0.353,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.574,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1619
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.647,
          "final": 0.7806,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.297,
          "final": 3.6147,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.395,
          "final": 2.7133,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.549,
          "final": 5.2081,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.353,
          "final": 0.1673,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.574,
          "final": 2.574,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1619,
          "final": 1.1619,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 37.2,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 25,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.911504424778761,
        "WHIP": 1.0884955752212389,
        "K9": 12.1858407079646,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7112453446996987,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "player_name": "Blake Snell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.75,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6093,
        "runs_scored": 749.0,
        "runs_allowed": 572.0,
        "run_differential": 177.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1722,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7881,
        "offense_index": 1.1037,
        "defense_index": 1.1864,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3414
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4636,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 777.0,
        "run_differential": -152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0066,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1457,
        "offense_index": 0.921,
        "defense_index": 0.8734,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.8,
          "run_differential": -41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2241
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5655,
        "offense_edge": 0.1037,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.079,
        "defense_strength": 0.1864,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1266,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0314,
        "run_prevention": 0.9404,
        "strikeout": 1.0233
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605483",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605483",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 33.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.4,
            "woba": 0.235,
            "xwoba": 0.225,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 1.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 14.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 70.7406,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 90.7371,
            "whiff_percent": 36.3,
            "swing_percent": 49.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.928,
            "command_and_miss": 1.2186,
            "regression_edge": 0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 1.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
            "whiff_edge": 1.6143,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0065
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605483",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.73249448384554,
              "release_spin_rate": 2364.123835006601,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.73249448384554,
                "release_spin_rate": 2364.123835006601,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7325,
              "release_spin_rate": 2364.1238,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0065,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0465,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7465,
          "sample_weight": 0.524,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9365,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0671,
          "walk_factor": 1.0126,
          "homer_factor": 0.8526,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605483",
            "espn_id": 33748,
            "player_name": "Blake Snell",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 125,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 125,
              "gp_value": 7.0,
              "gp_rank": 593,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 201,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 126,
              "era_value": 1.9115,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 199,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 433,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 37.2,
              "ip_rank": 388,
              "h_value": 25.0,
              "h_rank": 470,
              "er_value": 8.0,
              "er_rank": 594,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 750,
              "bb_value": 16.0,
              "bb_rank": 371,
              "k_value": 51.0,
              "k_rank": 293,
              "k_per_9_value": 12.185842,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.0884,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.47,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9667,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9667,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0066,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9228,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0352,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -15 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_LAD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_LAD@CIN

home

Andrew Abbott

True

4.1

4.2

3/3

1/5

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.781857451403887,
      "WHIP": 1.4643628509719222,
      "IP": 154.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.144,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4446,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0378,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
      "walk_factor": 1.022,
      "homer_factor": 1.0519,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.3,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.341,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 162,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 101.0,
            "Pitches": 355.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 71.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.8594,
            "WHIP": 1.7344,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.98438,
            "H_per_IP": 1.45312,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.32812
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 834.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 83.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2027,
            "WHIP": 1.5608,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68919,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11486,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44595,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.1,
            "ER": 82.0,
            "R": 88.0,
            "H": 156.0,
            "BB": 70.0,
            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 24.0,
            "BF": 679.0,
            "Pitches": 2671.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.7333,
            "R": 2.9333,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.6333,
            "Pitches": 89.0333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7819,
            "WHIP": 1.4644,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53132,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0108,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45356,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77754,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15551
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.519,
        "predicted_H": 5.669,
        "predicted_BB": 1.752,
        "predicted_SO": 3.811,
        "predicted_HR": 1.046,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.7457,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5806
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.519,
          "final": 2.4853,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.669,
          "final": 4.5737,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.752,
          "final": 1.4434,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.811,
          "final": 5.1197,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.046,
          "final": 1.0271,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.7457,
          "final": 6.7457,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5806,
          "final": 1.5806,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 6.202702702702703,
        "WHIP": 1.5608108108108107,
        "K9": 6.5675675675675675,
        "HR9": 1.4594594594594594,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2058130318558815,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.5667,
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              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4636,
        "runs_scored": 625.0,
        "runs_allowed": 777.0,
        "run_differential": -152.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0066,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1391,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1457,
        "offense_index": 0.921,
        "defense_index": 0.8734,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.8,
          "run_differential": -41.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2241
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 92,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6093,
        "runs_scored": 749.0,
        "runs_allowed": 572.0,
        "run_differential": 177.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1722,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9603,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7881,
        "offense_index": 1.1037,
        "defense_index": 1.1864,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.9,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3414
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5655,
        "offense_edge": -0.079,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1037,
        "defense_strength": -0.1266,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1864,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9694,
        "run_prevention": 1.0575,
        "strikeout": 0.9747
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671096",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671096",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 630.0,
            "k_percent": 17.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.3,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.341,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6059,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2025,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5273,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4764,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": -0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.14
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671096",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.3488539717345,
              "release_spin_rate": 2446.6549585872185,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.3488539717345,
                "release_spin_rate": 2446.6549585872185,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3489,
              "release_spin_rate": 2446.655,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.14,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4446,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0378,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9589,
          "walk_factor": 1.022,
          "homer_factor": 1.0519,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671096",
            "espn_id": 4414528,
            "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 162,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 162,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 235,
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": 8,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 47,
              "era_value": 4.7818,
              "era_rank": 46.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 112,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 11,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 154.1,
              "ip_rank": 45,
              "h_value": 156.0,
              "h_rank": 16,
              "er_value": 82.0,
              "er_rank": 13,
              "hr_value": 24.0,
              "hr_rank": 18,
              "bb_value": 70.0,
              "bb_rank": 8,
              "k_value": 120.0,
              "k_rank": 76,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.9978404,
              "k_per_9_rank": 45,
              "whip_value": 1.4643,
              "whip_rank": 48.0,
              "war_value": 1.13,
              "war_rank": 42.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0378,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0378,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.022,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0519,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9589,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_LAD@CIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_MIA@ARI

away

Ryan Gusto

True

4.2

4.1

-1

1/8

4/1

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.136170212765958,
      "WHIP": 1.4042553191489362,
      "IP": 78.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.312,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4205,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0357,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
      "walk_factor": 0.96,
      "homer_factor": 1.0758,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.331,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 8.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
      "whiff_percent": 20.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 214,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 409.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9189,
            "WHIP": 1.5811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32432,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13514,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44595,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64865,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04054
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 209.0,
            "Pitches": 758.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.9,
            "Pitches": 75.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7762,
            "WHIP": 1.4266,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41958,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11189,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31469,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7972,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12587
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 78.1,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 85.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 347.0,
            "Pitches": 1267.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.7143,
            "R": 1.8571,
            "H": 4.0476,
            "BB": 1.1905,
            "SO": 3.0952,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 16.5238,
            "Pitches": 60.3333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1362,
            "WHIP": 1.4043,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45957,
            "H_per_IP": 1.08511,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31915,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82979,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11489
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.886,
        "predicted_H": 5.04,
        "predicted_BB": 1.731,
        "predicted_SO": 3.588,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9294782180210677,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4934,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0461,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4539,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4079,
        "offense_index": 0.9901,
        "defense_index": 1.0206,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.035
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5263,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 674.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0066,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4408,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4342,
        "offense_index": 0.9872,
        "defense_index": 1.0145,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0582
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0932,
        "offense_edge": -0.0099,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0206,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0145,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9974,
        "run_prevention": 1.0006,
        "strikeout": 0.9982
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687473",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687473",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 321.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.3118,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1907,
            "whiff_percent": 20.6,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
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            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5643,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3321,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6286,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0483
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687473",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 78,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 78,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.98674243262057,
              "release_spin_rate": 2250.483822316965,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 78,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.98674243262057,
                "release_spin_rate": 2250.483822316965,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.9867,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0483,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.3448,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4205,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0357,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.956,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "687473",
            "espn_id": 5131986,
            "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 214,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 214,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 389,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 134,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 159,
              "era_value": 4.1361,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 418,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 144,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 274,
              "ip_value": 78.1,
              "ip_rank": 169,
              "h_value": 85.0,
              "h_rank": 141,
              "er_value": 36.0,
              "er_rank": 168,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 180,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 226,
              "k_value": 65.0,
              "k_rank": 213,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.468085,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34,
              "whip_value": 1.4042,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.77,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0357,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0357,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0758,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_MIA@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_MIA@ARI

home

Merrill Kelly

True

5.1

4.2

-2

5/7

1/2

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.973684210526316,
      "WHIP": 1.4605263157894737,
      "IP": 152.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.63,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.9748,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0829,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9423,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 1.1616,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.5,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.352,
      "xwoba": 0.384,
      "barrel_percent": 11.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 308,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.6,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3333,
            "WHIP": 1.3704,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85185,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51852,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07407
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
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            "BB": 27.0,
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            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5562,
            "WHIP": 1.4062,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50625,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
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            "IP": 152.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1111,
            "R": 3.2222,
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            "Pitches": 90.8148
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9737,
            "WHIP": 1.4605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55263,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01974,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44079,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17763
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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        "predicted_H": 4.923,
        "predicted_BB": 2.581,
        "predicted_SO": 4.11,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.539,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3925
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.718,
          "final": 3.2513,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.923,
          "final": 4.955,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.581,
          "final": 1.9233,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.11,
          "final": 4.8962,
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        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.616,
          "final": 1.1917,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.539,
          "final": 4.539,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.3925,
          "final": 1.3925,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 27,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.5562499999999995,
        "WHIP": 1.40625,
        "K9": 6.75,
        "HR9": 1.0125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0167230825315572,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5263,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 674.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0066,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4408,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4342,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0582
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 152,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4934,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 670.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0461,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4539,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4079,
        "offense_index": 0.9901,
        "defense_index": 1.0206,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.035
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0128,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0145,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0046,
        "run_prevention": 0.9923,
        "strikeout": 1.0036
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "518876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "518876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 611.0,
            "k_percent": 15.5,
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            "woba": 0.352,
            "xwoba": 0.384,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.9219,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6956,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
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            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.2719,
            "command_and_miss": -0.6479,
            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.0571,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5143,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0334
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "518876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.25174635296194,
              "release_spin_rate": 2318.4019078070933,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.25174635296194,
                "release_spin_rate": 2318.4019078070933,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2517,
              "release_spin_rate": 2318.4019,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0334,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.2388,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.9748,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0829,
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          "walk_factor": 1.02,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "518876",
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            "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 308,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 308,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
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              "gs_value": 27.0,
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              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 66,
              "era_value": 4.9736,
              "era_rank": 47.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 45,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 7,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 152.0,
              "ip_rank": 47,
              "h_value": 155.0,
              "h_rank": 19,
              "er_value": 84.0,
              "er_rank": 10,
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": 9,
              "bb_value": 67.0,
              "bb_rank": 10,
              "k_value": 102.0,
              "k_rank": 103,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.0394735,
              "k_per_9_rank": 59,
              "whip_value": 1.4605,
              "whip_rank": 47.0,
              "war_value": 0.29,
              "war_rank": 46.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0829,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9423,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_MIA@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_MIL@PIT

away

Logan Henderson

True

6.0

5.0

-3

4/6

1/1

6/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.3433962264150945,
      "WHIP": 0.7811320754716982,
      "IP": 88.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.521,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.7463,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9366,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0577,
      "walk_factor": 0.908,
      "homer_factor": 0.9663,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.2,
      "bb_percent": 4.6,
      "woba": 0.237,
      "xwoba": 0.251,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 29,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 481.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 96.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.4062,
            "WHIP": 0.5625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.15625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 901.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 90.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.95,
            "WHIP": 0.6833,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.55,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.13333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 88.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 99.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 328.0,
            "Pitches": 1331.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4375,
            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 3.375,
            "BB": 0.9375,
            "SO": 6.1875,
            "HR": 0.75,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 83.1875
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3434,
            "WHIP": 0.7811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26038,
            "H_per_IP": 0.61132,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16981,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12075,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13585
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.643,
        "predicted_H": 3.77,
        "predicted_BB": 1.17,
        "predicted_SO": 6.091,
        "predicted_HR": 0.802,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.4394,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.8147
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.643,
          "final": 1.3533,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.77,
          "final": 3.8736,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.17,
          "final": 1.0934,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.091,
          "final": 5.5994,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.802,
          "final": 0.4406,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.4394,
          "final": 2.4394,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.8147,
          "final": 0.8147,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 1.95,
        "WHIP": 0.6833333333333333,
        "K9": 9.75,
        "HR9": 1.5,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7054470408648905,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "701656",
      "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 151,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6225,
        "runs_scored": 783.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 199.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3179,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1854,
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        "offense_index": 1.1538,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4967,
        "runs_scored": 719.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7616,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6159,
        "offense_index": 1.0595,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.05
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0038
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "701656",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "701656",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "k_percent": 30.2,
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            "woba": 0.237,
            "xwoba": 0.251,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
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            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.315,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": 0.8521,
            "regression_edge": -0.4,
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            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0875
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "701656",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitch_name": null,
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              "release_speed": 88.28694847372871,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.28694847372871,
                "release_spin_rate": 2417.384349324889,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2869,
              "release_spin_rate": 2417.3843,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0875,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6248,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7463,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9366,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0577,
          "walk_factor": 0.908,
          "homer_factor": 0.9663,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "701656",
            "espn_id": 4917878,
            "player_name": "Logan Henderson",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 29,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 29,
              "gp_value": 16.0,
              "gp_rank": 450,
              "gs_value": 16.0,
              "gs_rank": 134,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 84,
              "era_value": 2.3433,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 32,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 249,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 88.1,
              "ip_rank": 150,
              "h_value": 54.0,
              "h_rank": 232,
              "er_value": 23.0,
              "er_rank": 282,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 139,
              "bb_value": 15.0,
              "bb_rank": 393,
              "k_value": 99.0,
              "k_rank": 114,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.086793,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 0.7811,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.15,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9366,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9366,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.908,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9663,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0577,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_MIL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_MIL@PIT

home

Jared Jones

True

5.0

-2

6/7

2/1

1/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.097276264591439,
      "WHIP": 1.1673151750972761,
      "IP": 85.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.759,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4209,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9642,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0777,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 0.9974,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.299,
      "xwoba": 0.287,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
      "whiff_percent": 32.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 113,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 439.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 87.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.025,
            "WHIP": 1.0875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.225,
            "H_per_IP": 0.675,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 41.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 825.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.1,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 82.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9079,
            "WHIP": 1.1842,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43421,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80921,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20395,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13816
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 85.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 70.0,
            "BB": 30.0,
            "SO": 100.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 357.0,
            "Pitches": 1402.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.1667,
            "R": 2.2222,
            "H": 3.8889,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 5.5556,
            "HR": 0.6667,
            "BF": 19.8333,
            "Pitches": 77.8889
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0973,
            "WHIP": 1.1673,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45525,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81712,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35019,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16732,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14008
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.92,
        "predicted_H": 4.047,
        "predicted_BB": 1.944,
        "predicted_SO": 5.97,
        "predicted_HR": 0.598,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4111,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1828
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 1.92,
          "final": 3.2809,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.047,
          "final": 4.9099,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.944,
          "final": 1.9687,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 5.97,
          "final": 3.774,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.598,
          "final": 1.2175,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4111,
          "final": 3.4111,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1828,
          "final": 1.1828,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 3.907894736842105,
        "WHIP": 1.1842105263157894,
        "K9": 10.835526315789473,
        "HR9": 1.2434210526315788,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9382321285841887,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4967,
        "runs_scored": 719.0,
        "runs_allowed": 697.0,
        "run_differential": 22.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1457,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7616,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6159,
        "offense_index": 1.0595,
        "defense_index": 0.9736,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.05
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 94,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6225,
        "runs_scored": 783.0,
        "runs_allowed": 584.0,
        "run_differential": 199.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3179,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1854,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8675,
        "offense_index": 1.1538,
        "defense_index": 1.162,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 7.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3354
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2854,
        "offense_edge": 0.0595,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1538,
        "defense_strength": -0.0264,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.162,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9816,
        "run_prevention": 1.0415,
        "strikeout": 0.9791
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683003",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 332.0,
            "k_percent": 28.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.299,
            "xwoba": 0.287,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8857,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1867,
            "whiff_percent": 32.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2853,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8057,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": 1.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2164
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.71251478216777,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.6100719859387,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.71251478216777,
                "release_spin_rate": 2515.6100719859387,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.7125,
              "release_spin_rate": 2515.6101,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2164,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.5455,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4209,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9642,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0777,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 0.9974,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683003",
            "espn_id": 4918156,
            "player_name": "Jared Jones",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 113,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 113,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 425,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 119,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 112,
              "era_value": 4.0972,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 199,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 115,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 85.2,
              "ip_rank": 155,
              "h_value": 70.0,
              "h_rank": 171,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 158,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 139,
              "bb_value": 30.0,
              "bb_rank": 182,
              "k_value": 100.0,
              "k_rank": 108,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.5058365,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18,
              "whip_value": 1.1673,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.64,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9642,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9642,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9974,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0777,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 93,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_MIL@PIT.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_NYY@MIN

away

Carlos Rodón

True

5.2

6.0

-1

5/4

0/3

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9431279620853084,
      "WHIP": 1.123222748815166,
      "IP": 70.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.024,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1466,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9875,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0509,
      "walk_factor": 1.058,
      "homer_factor": 0.9812,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 26.9,
      "bb_percent": 12.1,
      "woba": 0.263,
      "xwoba": 0.3,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 29.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 132,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 70.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.943,
      "season_WHIP": 1.123,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 412.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 82.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.25,
            "WHIP": 0.875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 209.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.9,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8052,
            "WHIP": 1.0519,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31169,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62338,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12987,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0974
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 70.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 78.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 290.0,
            "Pitches": 1240.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.6429,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 3.1429,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.5714,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 20.7143,
            "Pitches": 88.5714
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9431,
            "WHIP": 1.1232,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32701,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62559,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49763,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.109,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08531
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.743,
        "predicted_H": 3.419,
        "predicted_BB": 2.058,
        "predicted_SO": 5.374,
        "predicted_HR": 0.597,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0971,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0813
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.743,
          "final": 2.7839,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.419,
          "final": 4.1482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.058,
          "final": 1.1088,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.374,
          "final": 4.2791,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.597,
          "final": 0.7829,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0971,
          "final": 3.0971,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0813,
          "final": 1.0813,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 32,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.8051948051948052,
        "WHIP": 1.051948051948052,
        "K9": 10.16883116883117,
        "HR9": 0.8766233766233767,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8108718244146741,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "player_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5828,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 556.0,
        "run_differential": 137.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9073,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5894,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6821,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
        "defense_index": 1.2232,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2862
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4636,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 761.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4901,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0397,
        "offense_index": 1.0102,
        "defense_index": 0.8937,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -33.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1608
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.447,
        "offense_edge": 0.019,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0102,
        "defense_strength": 0.2232,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1063,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0242,
        "run_prevention": 0.957,
        "strikeout": 1.0126
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607074",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 265.0,
            "k_percent": 26.9,
            "bb_percent": 12.1,
            "woba": 0.263,
            "xwoba": 0.3,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.8066,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1958,
            "whiff_percent": 29.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2723,
            "command_and_miss": 0.37,
            "regression_edge": -1.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5714,
            "bb_edge": -0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.045
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.65198000775298,
              "release_spin_rate": 2325.208546674393,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.65198000775298,
                "release_spin_rate": 2325.208546674393,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.652,
              "release_spin_rate": 2325.2085,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.045,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3213,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1466,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9875,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0509,
          "walk_factor": 1.058,
          "homer_factor": 0.9812,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.037,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607074",
            "espn_id": 33696,
            "player_name": "Carlos Rodon",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 132,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 132,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 481,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 149,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 126,
              "era_value": 2.9431,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 112,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 249,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 70.1,
              "ip_rank": 187,
              "h_value": 44.0,
              "h_rank": 295,
              "er_value": 23.0,
              "er_rank": 282,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 276,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 127,
              "k_value": 78.0,
              "k_rank": 163,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.981042,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.1232,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.4,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9875,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9875,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.058,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9812,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0509,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_NYY@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_NYY@MIN

home

Zebby Matthews

True

5.2

6.0

-3

8/2

0/2

4/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.2737430167597765,
      "IP": 119.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.683,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3563,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0303,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9697,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 1.1065,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.33,
      "barrel_percent": 11.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 219,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8118,
            "WHIP": 1.0235,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77647,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24706,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 32.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 897.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 89.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5032,
            "WHIP": 1.3376,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61146,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97452,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36306,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85987,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 119.1,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 99.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 500.0,
            "Pitches": 1920.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1429,
            "R": 3.381,
            "H": 5.4762,
            "BB": 1.7619,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 1.0952,
            "BF": 23.8095,
            "Pitches": 91.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9777,
            "WHIP": 1.2737,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55307,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96369,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31006,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82961,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19274
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.859,
        "predicted_H": 5.019,
        "predicted_BB": 1.751,
        "predicted_SO": 4.679,
        "predicted_HR": 0.959,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6177,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2149
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.859,
          "final": 3.3511,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.019,
          "final": 6.3045,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.751,
          "final": 0.9959,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.679,
          "final": 4.3862,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.959,
          "final": 1.4079,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6177,
          "final": 4.6177,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2149,
          "final": 1.2149,
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        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 32,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 9,
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        "K9": 7.738853503184713,
        "HR9": 1.5477707006369426,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1215364782321942,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4636,
        "runs_scored": 687.0,
        "runs_allowed": 761.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4901,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0397,
        "offense_index": 1.0102,
        "defense_index": 0.8937,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 2.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.1,
          "run_differential": -33.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1608
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5828,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 556.0,
        "run_differential": 137.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9073,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5894,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6821,
        "offense_index": 1.019,
        "defense_index": 1.2232,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2862
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.447,
        "offense_edge": 0.0102,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.019,
        "defense_strength": -0.1063,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2232,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9782,
        "run_prevention": 1.036,
        "strikeout": 0.9851
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805673",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805673",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 486.0,
            "k_percent": 19.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.33,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.7963,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7164,
            "whiff_percent": 21.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5519,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2064,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.45,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0087
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805673",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.00374123757365,
              "release_spin_rate": 2242.4371241852723,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.00374123757365,
                "release_spin_rate": 2242.4371241852723,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0037,
              "release_spin_rate": 2242.4371,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0087,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.062,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3563,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0303,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9697,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 1.1065,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "805673",
            "espn_id": 4791597,
            "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 219,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 219,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 389,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 97,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 60,
              "era_value": 4.9776,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 45,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 22,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 119.1,
              "ip_rank": 96,
              "h_value": 115.0,
              "h_rank": 95,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 52,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 22,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 117,
              "k_value": 99.0,
              "k_rank": 114,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4664803,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.2737,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.74,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0303,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0303,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1065,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9697,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_NYY@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_OAK@TB

away

Brady Basso

True

5.0

2.2

-7

5/7

1/0

4/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8571428571428568,
      "WHIP": 1.3928571428571428,
      "IP": 37.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 23,
      "role_avg_IP": 2.4,
      "recent_avg_IP": 2.4,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0641,
      "sample_weight": 0.572,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9729,
      "walk_factor": 0.9439,
      "homer_factor": 0.9628,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.3,
      "bb_percent": 4.3,
      "woba": 0.335,
      "xwoba": 0.298,
      "barrel_percent": 5.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 220,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.555,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6018,
        "prior_weight": 0.3982
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669620",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 23,
      "reference_playing_time": 8.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 11.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 12.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 48.0,
            "Pitches": 179.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 2.4,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 9.6,
            "Pitches": 35.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3824,
            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26471,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 20.1,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 86.0,
            "Pitches": 313.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.7,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 2.3,
            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 1.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 8.6,
            "Pitches": 31.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0984,
            "WHIP": 1.3279,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34426,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13115,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19672,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68852,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09836
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 23,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 37.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 162.0,
            "Pitches": 573.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.6957,
            "R": 0.7391,
            "H": 1.9565,
            "BB": 0.3043,
            "SO": 1.2174,
            "HR": 0.1304,
            "BF": 7.0435,
            "Pitches": 24.913
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.3929,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 1.20536,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08036
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.76,
        "predicted_H": 4.697,
        "predicted_BB": 1.367,
        "predicted_SO": 3.658,
        "predicted_HR": 0.395,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5685,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3659
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.6018,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6018,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.76,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.658,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 0.1903,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5685,
          "final": 3.5685,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3659,
          "final": 1.3659,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
        "IP": 20.1,
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        "SO": 14,
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        "K9": 6.196721311475409,
        "HR9": 0.8852459016393441,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-09T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9000962717681436,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.555,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6018,
          "prior_weight": 0.3982
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
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          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669620",
      "player_name": "Brady Basso",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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            "predicted_H": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.375,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.375,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.375,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 61,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.404,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 861.0,
        "run_differential": -204.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.351,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.351,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.702,
        "offense_index": 0.9682,
        "defense_index": 0.7882,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2119
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 150,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.6067,
        "runs_scored": 684.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4667,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.56,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0933,
        "offense_index": 1.0147,
        "defense_index": 1.0979,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 25.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2528
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4647,
        "offense_edge": -0.0318,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0147,
        "defense_strength": -0.2118,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0979,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9745,
        "run_prevention": 1.0468,
        "strikeout": 0.9849
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669620",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669620",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 143.0,
            "k_percent": 17.3,
            "bb_percent": 4.3,
            "woba": 0.335,
            "xwoba": 0.298,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9846,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7674,
            "whiff_percent": 21.4,
            "swing_percent": 51.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1382,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2371,
            "regression_edge": 1.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5143,
            "bb_edge": 1.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1179
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669620",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 26,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 26,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.74306528896737,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.824795129905,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 26,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.74306528896737,
                "release_spin_rate": 2227.824795129905,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.7431,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.8248,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1179,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.8423,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0641,
          "sample_weight": 0.572,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9729,
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          "homer_factor": 0.9628,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.037,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669620",
            "espn_id": 4179551,
            "player_name": "Brady Basso",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 220,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 220,
              "gp_value": 23.0,
              "gp_rank": 365,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 223,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 3.8571,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 418,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 336,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 3.0,
              "hld_rank": 211,
              "ip_value": 37.1,
              "ip_rank": 391,
              "h_value": 45.0,
              "h_rank": 287,
              "er_value": 16.0,
              "er_rank": 410,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 456,
              "bb_value": 7.0,
              "bb_rank": 562,
              "k_value": 28.0,
              "k_rank": 439,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.75,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.3928,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.72,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9969,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9969,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9787,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9845,
            "adjusted": 3
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_OAK@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_OAK@TB

home

Nick Martinez

True

5.2

5.0

-2

2/5

0/0

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.9218436873747495,
      "WHIP": 1.0701402805611222,
      "IP": 166.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.94,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0894,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0076,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9166,
      "walk_factor": 0.888,
      "homer_factor": 0.9617,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.8,
      "bb_percent": 3.6,
      "woba": 0.288,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.9,
      "whiff_percent": 17.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 19,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 407.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 81.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8118,
            "WHIP": 0.9882,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42353,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 826.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 82.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3934,
            "WHIP": 0.9836,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37705,
            "H_per_IP": 0.90164,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.08197,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.59016,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13115
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 166.1,
            "ER": 54.0,
            "R": 54.0,
            "H": 154.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 98.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 663.0,
            "Pitches": 2308.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9286,
            "R": 1.9286,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 0.8571,
            "SO": 3.5,
            "HR": 0.6786,
            "BF": 23.6786,
            "Pitches": 82.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.9218,
            "WHIP": 1.0701,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32465,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92585,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14429,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.58918,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11423
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.359,
        "predicted_H": 5.216,
        "predicted_BB": 0.927,
        "predicted_SO": 3.999,
        "predicted_HR": 0.705,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6463,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.055
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.359,
          "final": 1.3824,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
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          "final": 3.8845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.927,
          "final": 0.5432,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.999,
          "final": 3.9994,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.705,
          "final": 0.4131,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6463,
          "final": 3.6463,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.055,
          "final": 1.055,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 23,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 3.3934426229508197,
        "WHIP": 0.9836065573770492,
        "K9": 5.311475409836065,
        "HR9": 1.180327868852459,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8753411665479507,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
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              "before": 4.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          "weights": {},
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      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 150,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 59,
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        "runs_scored": 684.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": 70.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4667,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.56,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
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                "release_speed": 87.06612591043829,
                "release_spin_rate": 2194.617152596476,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0661,
              "release_spin_rate": 2194.6172,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1558,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1131,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0894,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0076,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9166,
          "walk_factor": 0.888,
          "homer_factor": 0.9617,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.023,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607259",
            "espn_id": 33372,
            "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 19,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 19,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 289,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 36,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 20,
              "era_value": 2.9218,
              "era_rank": 12.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 7,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 196,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 166.1,
              "ip_rank": 19,
              "h_value": 154.0,
              "h_rank": 20,
              "er_value": 54.0,
              "er_rank": 101,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 58,
              "bb_value": 24.0,
              "bb_rank": 240,
              "k_value": 98.0,
              "k_rank": 117,
              "k_per_9_value": 5.302605,
              "k_per_9_rank": 166,
              "whip_value": 1.0701,
              "whip_rank": 12.0,
              "war_value": 3.83,
              "war_rank": 17.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0076,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0076,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.888,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9617,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9166,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_OAK@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_PHI@WAS

away

Zack Wheeler

True

5.2

7.0

-3

4/4

4/1

5/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.13953488372093,
      "WHIP": 1.0744186046511628,
      "IP": 143.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6854,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9417,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0806,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 0.9356,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.284,
      "xwoba": 0.27,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
      "whiff_percent": 31.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 11,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 35.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 514.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 7.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 102.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1786,
            "WHIP": 1.3929,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46429,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82143,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0066,
            "WHIP": 1.4106,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55629,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95364,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45695,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.27152,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19868
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.1,
            "ER": 50.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 109.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 172.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 574.0,
            "Pitches": 2360.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.04,
            "H": 4.36,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.88,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.96,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1395,
            "WHIP": 1.0744,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34884,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76047,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31395,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.619,
        "predicted_H": 4.79,
        "predicted_BB": 2.528,
        "predicted_SO": 6.545,
        "predicted_HR": 1.018,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3066,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3373
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.619,
          "final": 3.1996,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.79,
          "final": 4.4579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.528,
          "final": 3.1469,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.545,
          "final": 5.475,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.018,
          "final": 0.59,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3066,
          "final": 4.3066,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3373,
          "final": 1.3373,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 5.006622516556292,
        "WHIP": 1.4105960264900663,
        "K9": 11.443708609271525,
        "HR9": 1.7880794701986757,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-10T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0674986413063916,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.75,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2857,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2857,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 2,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5497,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1854,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3046,
        "offense_index": 0.9991,
        "defense_index": 1.044,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0299
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4671,
        "runs_scored": 778.0,
        "runs_allowed": 772.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0395,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1184,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0789,
        "offense_index": 1.1389,
        "defense_index": 0.8849,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0581
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.088,
        "offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1389,
        "defense_strength": 0.044,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1151,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9993,
        "run_prevention": 1.0134,
        "strikeout": 0.9915
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "554430",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "554430",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 546.0,
            "k_percent": 30.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.284,
            "xwoba": 0.27,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.7526,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4024,
            "whiff_percent": 31.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7372,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8893,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8714,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0171
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "554430",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 97,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 97,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.15337890549876,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.0885855263646,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 97,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.15337890549876,
                "release_spin_rate": 2372.0885855263646,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1534,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.0886,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0171,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1218,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6854,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9417,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0806,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 0.9356,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_id": 31267,
            "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 11,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 11,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 336,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 67,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 20,
              "era_value": 3.1395,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 17,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 144,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 143.1,
              "ip_rank": 61,
              "h_value": 109.0,
              "h_rank": 110,
              "er_value": 50.0,
              "er_rank": 109,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 41,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 70,
              "k_value": 172.0,
              "k_rank": 22,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.8,
              "k_per_9_rank": 9,
              "whip_value": 1.0744,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 4.92,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9417,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9417,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9356,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0806,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_PHI@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_PHI@WAS

home

Jared Simpson

True

3.0

0.1

-8

1/1

2/4

5/0

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 0.0,
      "WHIP": 0.0,
      "IP": 4.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0113,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.999,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0021,
      "walk_factor": 1.09,
      "homer_factor": 0.9185,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 28.6,
      "bb_percent": 21.4,
      "woba": 0.15,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 0.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 28.6,
      "whiff_percent": 19.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 572,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 0.809,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "prior_weight": 0.8607
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688692",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 11.0,
            "Pitches": 49.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.5,
            "Pitches": 24.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 11.0,
            "Pitches": 49.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.5,
            "Pitches": 24.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 11.0,
            "Pitches": 49.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 5.5,
            "Pitches": 24.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.615,
        "predicted_H": 3.12,
        "predicted_BB": 1.193,
        "predicted_SO": 3.524,
        "predicted_HR": 0.471,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9047,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1591
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7136,
      "form_weight": 0.2864,
      "form_reliability": 0.1393,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 0.809,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.1393,
        "prior_weight": 0.8607
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.2,
          "final": 4.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.615,
          "final": 0.4625,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 3.12,
          "final": 1.6071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.193,
          "final": 1.7689,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.524,
          "final": 4.5773,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.471,
          "final": 0.1349,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9047,
          "final": 3.9047,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1591,
          "final": 1.1591,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 4.0,
        "ER": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 4,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.0,
        "WHIP": 0.0,
        "K9": 9.0,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 3,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 3,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9300761324970976,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 0.809,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.1393,
          "prior_weight": 0.8607
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 0,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "688692",
      "player_name": "Jared Simpson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 0.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 0.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4671,
        "runs_scored": 778.0,
        "runs_allowed": 772.0,
        "run_differential": 6.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0395,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1184,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0789,
        "offense_index": 1.1389,
        "defense_index": 0.8849,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0581
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5497,
        "runs_scored": 678.0,
        "runs_allowed": 650.0,
        "run_differential": 28.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1854,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4901,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3046,
        "offense_index": 0.9991,
        "defense_index": 1.044,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0299
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.088,
        "offense_edge": 0.1389,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0009,
        "defense_strength": -0.1151,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.044,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9931,
        "run_prevention": 1.0158,
        "strikeout": 0.9974
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "688692",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "688692",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 11.0,
            "k_percent": 28.6,
            "bb_percent": 21.4,
            "woba": 0.15,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 57.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 0.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 28.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 81.9924,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2879,
            "whiff_percent": 19.2,
            "swing_percent": 38.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5615,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3657,
            "regression_edge": -2.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0,
            "barrel_edge": 1.6,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.3286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8286,
            "bb_edge": -2.5,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0725
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "688692",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 24,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 24,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.143431372549,
              "release_spin_rate": 2008.8196078431367,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 24,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.143431372549,
                "release_spin_rate": 2008.8196078431367,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.1434,
              "release_spin_rate": 2008.8196,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0725,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5178,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0113,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.999,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0021,
          "walk_factor": 1.09,
          "homer_factor": 0.9185,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.162,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "688692",
            "espn_id": 4719315,
            "player_name": "Jared Simpson",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 572,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 572,
              "gp_value": 3.0,
              "gp_rank": 718,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 368,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 6.75,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 418,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 580,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 4.0,
              "ip_rank": 738,
              "h_value": 0.0,
              "h_rank": 848,
              "er_value": 3.0,
              "er_rank": 719,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 750,
              "bb_value": 3.0,
              "bb_rank": 688,
              "k_value": 4.0,
              "k_rank": 708,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.0,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 0.75,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.08,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9996,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0405,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9633,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0009,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 14,
      "Pitches": 58,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_PHI@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_SD@COL

away

Robbie Ray

True

5.0

6.0

-1

5/3

3/2

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.569296375266524,
      "WHIP": 1.349680170575693,
      "IP": 156.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.357,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3217,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0273,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 1.062,
      "homer_factor": 1.0407,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 12.3,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 8.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
      "whiff_percent": 25.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 72,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1081,
            "WHIP": 1.4595,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56757,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81081,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64865,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77027,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16216
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 873.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 2.9,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 87.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9866,
            "WHIP": 1.5302,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94631,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58389,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84564,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12081
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.1,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 81.0,
            "SO": 132.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 661.0,
            "Pitches": 2682.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.1379,
            "R": 2.4138,
            "H": 4.4828,
            "BB": 2.7931,
            "SO": 4.5517,
            "HR": 0.7241,
            "BF": 22.7931,
            "Pitches": 92.4828
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5693,
            "WHIP": 1.3497,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39659,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83156,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.51812,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84435,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13433
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.487,
        "predicted_H": 4.444,
        "predicted_BB": 2.864,
        "predicted_SO": 4.198,
        "predicted_HR": 0.722,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4268,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4453
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.487,
          "final": 3.1106,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.444,
          "final": 4.6732,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.864,
          "final": 2.9201,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.198,
          "final": 4.1164,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.722,
          "final": 0.8366,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4268,
          "final": 4.4268,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4453,
          "final": 1.4453,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 29,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.986577181208054,
        "WHIP": 1.5302013422818792,
        "K9": 7.610738255033557,
        "HR9": 1.087248322147651,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9557336739745103,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.543,
        "runs_scored": 650.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1126,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3046,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1921,
        "offense_index": 0.9577,
        "defense_index": 1.0722,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1553
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3709,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 876.0,
        "run_differential": -164.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0861,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7152,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8013,
        "offense_index": 1.0491,
        "defense_index": 0.7748,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.4,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3476
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5029,
        "offense_edge": -0.0423,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0491,
        "defense_strength": 0.0722,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2252,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0203,
        "run_prevention": 0.9755,
        "strikeout": 1.0112
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 610.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 12.3,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.7872,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1035,
            "whiff_percent": 25.4,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3337,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2636,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0571,
            "bb_edge": -0.775,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0782
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.45174099396903,
              "release_spin_rate": 2131.1514136705164,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.45174099396903,
                "release_spin_rate": 2131.1514136705164,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.4517,
              "release_spin_rate": 2131.1514,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0782,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5588,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3217,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0273,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 1.062,
          "homer_factor": 1.0407,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.021,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "592662",
            "espn_id": 32175,
            "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 72,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 72,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 261,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 36,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 47,
              "era_value": 3.5692,
              "era_rank": 21.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 17,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 66,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 156.1,
              "ip_rank": 42,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 66,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 66,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 33,
              "bb_value": 81.0,
              "bb_rank": 1,
              "k_value": 132.0,
              "k_rank": 56,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.599147,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.3496,
              "whip_rank": 39.0,
              "war_value": 2.11,
              "war_rank": 31.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0273,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0273,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.062,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0407,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_SD@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_SD@COL

home

Mason Adams

True

4.2

4.1

-1

5/8

1/3

4/1

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.375,
      "WHIP": 1.4464285714285714,
      "IP": 18.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2071,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0176,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
      "walk_factor": 1.0225,
      "homer_factor": 1.0854,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 28.6,
      "bb_percent": 11.7,
      "woba": 0.379,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 10.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 58.7,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 223,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 77.0,
            "Pitches": 304.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 1.25,
            "BF": 19.25,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.4464,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48214,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26786
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 77.0,
            "Pitches": 304.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 1.25,
            "BF": 19.25,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.4464,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48214,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26786
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 7.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 77.0,
            "Pitches": 304.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.75,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.25,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 1.25,
            "BF": 19.25,
            "Pitches": 76.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.4464,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48214,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26786
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.085,
        "predicted_H": 4.526,
        "predicted_BB": 1.966,
        "predicted_SO": 4.877,
        "predicted_HR": 0.937,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0204,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.391
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.085,
          "final": 3.7895,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.526,
          "final": 4.8032,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.966,
          "final": 1.4011,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.877,
          "final": 3.7794,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.937,
          "final": 0.9738,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0204,
          "final": 4.0204,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.391,
          "final": 1.391,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 18.2,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 18,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 22,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.375,
        "WHIP": 1.4464285714285714,
        "K9": 10.607142857142856,
        "HR9": 2.4107142857142856,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9292312165610197,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "690279",
      "player_name": "Mason Adams",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 95,
        "win_pct": 0.3709,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 876.0,
        "run_differential": -164.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0861,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7152,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8013,
        "offense_index": 1.0491,
        "defense_index": 0.7748,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 2,
          "losses": 8,
          "win_pct": 0.2,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 7.4,
          "run_differential": -23.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3476
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 151,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.543,
        "runs_scored": 650.0,
        "runs_allowed": 633.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1126,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3046,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1921,
        "offense_index": 0.9577,
        "defense_index": 1.0722,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1553
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5029,
        "offense_edge": 0.0491,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0423,
        "defense_strength": -0.2252,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0722,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.6
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9748,
        "run_prevention": 1.0409,
        "strikeout": 0.9883
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690279",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690279",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 59.0,
            "k_percent": 28.6,
            "bb_percent": 11.7,
            "woba": 0.379,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 58.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 83.9838,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 96.4187,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 45.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.1322,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2443,
            "regression_edge": 1.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -2.5,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1571,
            "bb_edge": -0.625,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0152
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690279",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 75,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 75,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.57815708015708,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.900877800878,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 75,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.57815708015708,
                "release_spin_rate": 2288.900877800878,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5782,
              "release_spin_rate": 2288.9009,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0152,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1083,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2071,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0176,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0141,
          "walk_factor": 1.0225,
          "homer_factor": 1.0854,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.039,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690279",
            "espn_id": 4758424,
            "player_name": "Mason Adams",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 223,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 223,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 677,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 238,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 3.375,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 541,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 580,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 18.2,
              "ip_rank": 532,
              "h_value": 18.0,
              "h_rank": 545,
              "er_value": 7.0,
              "er_rank": 611,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 329,
              "bb_value": 9.0,
              "bb_rank": 511,
              "k_value": 22.0,
              "k_rank": 471,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.607143,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.4464,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.71,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0079,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0079,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0101,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0384,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 78,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_SD@COL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_SEA@LAA

away

George Kirby

True

5.2

4.1

-4

6/5

1/5

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.245967741935484,
      "WHIP": 1.3608870967741935,
      "IP": 165.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.905,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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        },
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.2312,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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      "team": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669923",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669923",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669923",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.90877310424091,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 93,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.9088,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -0.0361,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "George Kirby",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
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              "l_rank": 11,
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              "k_per_9_value": 7.5120964,
              "k_per_9_rank": 59,
              "whip_value": 1.3608,
              "whip_rank": 42.0,
              "war_value": 1.35,
              "war_rank": 41.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0031,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.928,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9714,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_SEA@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_SEA@LAA

home

Yusei Kikuchi

True

4.2

4.1

-1

4/5

2/5

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.9
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    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 261,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
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            "R": 8.0,
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            "BB": 10.0,
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            "SO": 4.4,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16667
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        },
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            "R": 26.0,
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            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
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            "BF": 214.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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            "Pitches": 83.9
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            "R": 28.0,
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            "H": 5.0909,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.01887,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.192,
        "predicted_H": 4.669,
        "predicted_BB": 1.964,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7226,
              "release_spin_rate": 2212.9689,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0071,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0505,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.304,
          "sample_weight": 0.864,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0258,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0089,
          "walk_factor": 1.0086,
          "homer_factor": 1.0807,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "579328",
            "espn_id": 41415,
            "player_name": "Yusei Kikuchi",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 261,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 261,
              "gp_value": 11.0,
              "gp_rank": 519,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 165,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 142,
              "era_value": 4.7547,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 418,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 144,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 53.0,
              "ip_rank": 299,
              "h_value": 56.0,
              "h_rank": 218,
              "er_value": 28.0,
              "er_rank": 221,
              "hr_value": 7.0,
              "hr_rank": 237,
              "bb_value": 23.0,
              "bb_rank": 250,
              "k_value": 54.0,
              "k_rank": 279,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.169811,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.4905,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.48,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0223,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0074,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0697,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0077,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_SEA@LAA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_SF@STL

away

Anthony Molina

True

4.2

5.2

-2

4/2

3/1

6/6

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.238805970149254,
      "WHIP": 1.2537313432835822,
      "IP": 22.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0393,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
      "walk_factor": 0.9649,
      "homer_factor": 1.0006,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.2,
      "bb_percent": 5.3,
      "woba": 0.323,
      "xwoba": 0.321,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 692,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.1,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 82.0,
            "Pitches": 319.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 16.4,
            "Pitches": 63.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5862,
            "WHIP": 1.2414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62069,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2069,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87931,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 374.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.8571,
            "R": 2.2857,
            "H": 3.2857,
            "BB": 0.7143,
            "SO": 2.7143,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 13.4286,
            "Pitches": 53.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2388,
            "WHIP": 1.2537,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58209,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02985,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22388,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85075,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13433
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 374.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.8571,
            "R": 2.2857,
            "H": 3.2857,
            "BB": 0.7143,
            "SO": 2.7143,
            "HR": 0.4286,
            "BF": 13.4286,
            "Pitches": 53.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2388,
            "WHIP": 1.2537,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58209,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02985,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.22388,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85075,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13433
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.372,
        "predicted_H": 4.222,
        "predicted_BB": 1.165,
        "predicted_SO": 3.767,
        "predicted_HR": 0.623,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.1008,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.287
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.372,
          "final": 2.1763,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.222,
          "final": 4.1052,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.165,
          "final": 2.1303,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.767,
          "final": 4.4156,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.623,
          "final": 0.8213,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.1008,
          "final": 5.1008,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.287,
          "final": 1.287,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 22.1,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 23,
        "BB": 5,
        "SO": 19,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 5.238805970149254,
        "WHIP": 1.2537313432835822,
        "K9": 7.656716417910448,
        "HR9": 1.2089552238805972,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0659472010468385,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.4145,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 714.0,
        "run_differential": -71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4671,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2303,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6974,
        "offense_index": 0.9385,
        "defense_index": 0.9596,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1297
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4934,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": -13.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0855,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5263,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6118,
        "offense_index": 1.0042,
        "defense_index": 0.9774,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.051
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0787,
        "offense_edge": -0.0615,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0042,
        "defense_strength": -0.0404,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0226,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9955,
        "run_prevention": 1.0086,
        "strikeout": 0.9973
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683627",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683627",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 65.0,
            "k_percent": 20.2,
            "bb_percent": 5.3,
            "woba": 0.323,
            "xwoba": 0.321,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 42.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.1025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5472,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 51.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1808,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0143,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1857,
            "bb_edge": 0.975,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0548
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683627",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 60,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 60,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.82797294429707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2120.6696251105213,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 60,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.82797294429707,
                "release_spin_rate": 2120.6696251105213,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.828,
              "release_spin_rate": 2120.6696,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0548,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.3917,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0393,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.992,
          "walk_factor": 0.9649,
          "homer_factor": 1.0006,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683627",
            "espn_id": 5016983,
            "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 692,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 692,
              "gp_value": 7.0,
              "gp_rank": 593,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 255,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 214,
              "era_value": 5.2388,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 251,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 433,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 22.1,
              "ip_rank": 503,
              "h_value": 23.0,
              "h_rank": 495,
              "er_value": 13.0,
              "er_rank": 470,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 456,
              "bb_value": 5.0,
              "bb_rank": 629,
              "k_value": 19.0,
              "k_rank": 507,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6567163,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.2537,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.24,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0015,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0015,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9842,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0003,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9964,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_SF@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260916

20260916_SF@STL

home

Matthew Liberatore

True

5.0

6.0

-3

6/6

0/3

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.525581395348837,
      "WHIP": 1.486046511627907,
      "IP": 143.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.943,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4025,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0342,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 1.0914,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.3,
      "woba": 0.358,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 850,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "report_date": "20260916",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 439.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 87.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.7671,
            "WHIP": 1.5205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.86301,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19178,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32877,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23288,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28767
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 58.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 875.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 87.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5235,
            "WHIP": 1.4899,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72483,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16779,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32215,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16779,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20134
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.1,
            "ER": 88.0,
            "R": 94.0,
            "H": 161.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 146.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 628.0,
            "Pitches": 2448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0345,
            "R": 3.2414,
            "H": 5.5517,
            "BB": 1.7931,
            "SO": 5.0345,
            "HR": 0.931,
            "BF": 21.6552,
            "Pitches": 84.4138
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5256,
            "WHIP": 1.486,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61395,
            "H_per_IP": 1.12326,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36279,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0186,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18837
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.632,
        "predicted_H": 5.705,
        "predicted_BB": 1.695,
        "predicted_SO": 5.668,
        "predicted_HR": 1.121,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.5383,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4799
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.632,
          "final": 2.9594,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.705,
          "final": 4.5901,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.695,
          "final": 0.9964,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.668,
          "final": 6.217,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.121,
          "final": 1.0711,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.5383,
          "final": 6.5383,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4799,
          "final": 1.4799,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.523489932885905,
        "WHIP": 1.4899328859060401,
        "K9": 10.510067114093959,
        "HR9": 1.8120805369127515,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-11T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2401296471288723,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4934,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": -13.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0855,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5263,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6118,
        "offense_index": 1.0042,
        "defense_index": 0.9774,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.051
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 152,
        "wins": 63,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.4145,
        "runs_scored": 643.0,
        "runs_allowed": 714.0,
        "run_differential": -71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4671,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2303,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6974,
        "offense_index": 0.9385,
        "defense_index": 0.9596,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1297
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0787,
        "offense_edge": 0.0042,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0615,
        "defense_strength": -0.0226,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0404,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0049,
        "run_prevention": 0.9885,
        "strikeout": 1.0073
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669461",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669461",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 607.0,
            "k_percent": 23.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.3,
            "woba": 0.358,
            "xwoba": 0.343,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 40.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.9987,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6638,
            "whiff_percent": 24.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 132.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.312,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6025,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9171,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.8216,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0771,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1286,
            "bb_edge": 0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0663
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669461",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.6650785479876,
              "release_spin_rate": 2392.003524667166,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.6650785479876,
                "release_spin_rate": 2392.003524667166,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6651,
              "release_spin_rate": 2392.0035,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0663,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4735,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4025,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0342,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 1.0914,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669461",
            "espn_id": 41173,
            "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 850,
            "espn_total_ranked": 862,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 850,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 261,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 24,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 93,
              "era_value": 5.5255,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 156,
              "l_value": 14.0,
              "l_rank": 3,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 253,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 357,
              "ip_value": 143.1,
              "ip_rank": 61,
              "h_value": 161.0,
              "h_rank": 11,
              "er_value": 88.0,
              "er_rank": 6,
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": 9,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 40,
              "k_value": 146.0,
              "k_rank": 40,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.167441,
              "k_per_9_rank": 17,
              "whip_value": 1.486,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.13,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0342,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0342,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.982,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0914,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260916_SF@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}