Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260913 · dates 20260913 · generated 2026-09-14T09:00:19.273469+00:00

9-6

Winner picks · 60.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

21/30

Starter ER within ±1

20/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260913	15	15	0	9	6	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 15
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.85]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.0827.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	9	52.8%	55.6%	-2.8%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	4	56.4%	75.0%	-18.6%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	2	62.3%	50.0%	12.3%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.3252	3.1336	3.2574	60.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.3667	3.1333	3.2667	53.3%	0.0415	0.0093
enhanced_prediction	15	2.5333	3.8667	3.4667	60.0%	0.2081	0.2093
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.4333	3.8	3.2667	60.0%	0.1081	0.0093
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.4333	3.8	3.2667	60.0%	0.1081	0.0093
capped_target	15	2.4333	3.8	3.2667	60.0%	0.1081	0.0093
simulation_result	15	2.4333	3.8	3.2667	60.0%	0.1081	0.0093
published_final	15	2.4333	3.8	3.2667	60.0%	0.1081	0.0093

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.5333,
  "total_run_mae": 3.8667,
  "margin_mae": 3.4667,
  "winner_hits": 9,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2081,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2093
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=6

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	8.0	-1.0	7.0	9.0	6	2	1	3	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.6191	-0.5333	1.0858	2.1524	6	3	3	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6	0	0	6	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 6,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 9.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.6191,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.5333,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0858,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.1524,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 6,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=9

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	5.0	-3.0	2.0	8.0	9	2	3	4	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	3.0	0.0	3.0	3.0	9	3	0	6	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.6735	-0.6524	1.0211	2.3259	9	5	4	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9	0	0	9	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 9,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 8.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 6,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.6735,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.6524,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0211,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.3259,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 9,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 9,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	4	3	1	0.75
[0.525, 0.550)	5	2	3	0.4
[0.550, 0.600)	4	3	1	0.75
[0.600, 1.010)	2	1	1	0.5

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 5,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.4
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260913	15	0.5502	9.4	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260913",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5502,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.4,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	9	6	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 9,
      "misses": 6,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260913_BAL@TOR

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreBAL 2 - 4 TOR

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 53.6% → blended 54.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.3% · weight 50.0% · n=638

H2H base featurehome net -13.0 · absolute 13.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0675

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.001503528858056-5.228167573182231	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.059242,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.529621,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.529621,
    "away_win_probability": 0.470379
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.059242,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 2 - 4 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.5296208,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.536487,
    "sample_size": 638,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5533,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.544894,
    "published_confidence": 0.529621,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -13.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 13.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.6,
    "home_run_delta": -0.075,
    "away_run_delta": 0.075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1115,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.4,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0675
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03407819864653504
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03180362951833271
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031302137975194363
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.030919951268836936
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.030239530414274518
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08201470744065047,
      "1": 0.128550948380848,
      "2": 0.16792616573335314,
      "3": 0.18281886171312361,
      "4": 0.16587585376285063,
      "5": 0.12543099971476082,
      "6": 0.07904713577009327,
      "7": 0.04151709276599601,
      "8": 0.01817302703406496,
      "9": 0.006629597357609287,
      "10": 0.002015610326649873
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08605006461562073,
      "1": 0.13444795748585728,
      "2": 0.17396251798262724,
      "3": 0.1864041725629492,
      "4": 0.16540705992210966,
      "5": 0.12154886924945386,
      "6": 0.07396840806755002,
      "7": 0.03727692579595238,
      "8": 0.01555723365719279,
      "9": 0.005376790660686728
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 2 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "BAL 2 - 4 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0314,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.33,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1115,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.4,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0675
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03563553208504707
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.03312600177361371
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          {
            "home_runs": 2,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03215376461527092
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          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.031406233509435964
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08019632869179924,
          "1": 0.12897079518611154,
          "2": 0.17106670800057447,
          "3": 0.1871444052688,
          "4": 0.16885947266668724,
          "5": 0.1256641040122848,
          "6": 0.07713194438517709,
          "7": 0.03904761834386221,
          "8": 0.016303920545645122,
          "9": 0.005614702899058259
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.08410442779533829,
          "1": 0.13480199703491957,
          "2": 0.17700770549904518,
          "3": 0.19041729852336703,
          "4": 0.167818180107102,
          "5": 0.12116857359789374,
          "6": 0.07167362404263783,
          "7": 0.034733385289443475,
          "8": 0.013789650024525665,
          "9": 0.004485158085727254
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.001503528858056,
      "home_runs": 5.228167573182231,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_CHW@STL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSTL

Published scoreCHW 5 - 6 STL

Final confidence50.8%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=627

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.1112

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.084109664316826-4.757202575695695	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.01691,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.508455,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.508455,
    "away_win_probability": 0.491545
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01691,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 STL",
    "confidence": 0.5084554175,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 627,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53015,
    "published_confidence": 0.508455,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.339,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.312,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.1112
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019850101021333996
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019666045110455048
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019444027412150358
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019263736733898786
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01805371114905434
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.039872628159598085,
      "1": 0.0646163277148236,
      "2": 0.09329039975174397,
      "3": 0.11999382773290433,
      "4": 0.13750172046943535,
      "5": 0.1403733385101038,
      "6": 0.12766986443878203,
      "7": 0.10344736606062511,
      "8": 0.07467543292001044,
      "9": 0.04802455313698128,
      "10": 0.027515422616519614,
      "11": 0.014044824426684652,
      "12": 0.0063868058297722454,
      "13": 0.002587488232015482
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.041453863258109014,
      "1": 0.067094134191636,
      "2": 0.0965018485066891,
      "3": 0.12334406261226381,
      "4": 0.14009815054045696,
      "5": 0.1414093390669427,
      "6": 0.1268397331521656,
      "7": 0.10110300964021311,
      "8": 0.07161506411122294,
      "9": 0.04507920238212141,
      "10": 0.025216197552504448,
      "11": 0.012534716337714998,
      "12": 0.005537082052433412,
      "13": 0.002173596595526626
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0135,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.312,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1112,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5085,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5906,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5085,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.1112,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.312,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0135,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 4
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T17:42:35.202206+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-13T18:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.511703,
      "confidence": 0.511703,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
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    },
    {
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      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_CIN@MIL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIL

Published scoreCIN 4 - 8 MIL

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 74.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.6% · weight 50.0% · n=346

H2H base featurehome net 21.0 · absolute 21.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 2.0534

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.911283747735604-3.3196517644678702	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 8-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 8 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 346,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5665,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.74325,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 21.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 21.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1212,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1212,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 20.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.5388,
    "recent_quality_edge": 1.152,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 2.0534
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01597338574484949
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015949231441282363
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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      "14": 0.024074844760680704,
      "15": 0.01457909605359785,
      "16": 0.008216461512324942,
      "17": 0.004309492996786893,
      "18": 0.002103558815435941
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04688158887457973,
      "1": 0.07555690510550044,
      "2": 0.10729565310011799,
      "3": 0.13425368764164392,
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    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "CIN 4 - 8 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "CIN 4 - 8 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0127,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.222,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 8
      }
    },
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      "review_required": false,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 8,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 4
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    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 149,
          "wins": 93,
          "losses": 56,
          "win_pct": 0.6241610738255033,
          "runs_scored": 775,
          "runs_allowed": 579,
          "run_differential": 196,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.3154362416107384,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CIN",
          "games": 148,
          "wins": 69,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.46621621621621623,
          "runs_scored": 620,
          "runs_allowed": 766,
          "run_differential": -146,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.9864864864864865,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 2.3019,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1579,
        "quality_edge": 2.0534,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.5388,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.5388,
          "recent_quality_edge": 1.152,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 2.0534
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 3.2854,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 3.2854,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 2.0534,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.5388,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.473,
          "home_runs": 7.669,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.911283747735604,
      "home_runs": 3.3196517644678702,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_CLE@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreCLE 4 - 5 MIN

Final confidence54.6%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.6% · weight 50.0% · n=355

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2563

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.575849181821968-5.596977743019057	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.092102,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.546051,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.546051,
    "away_win_probability": 0.453949
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.092102,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.546050705,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 355,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5283,
    "published_confidence": 0.546051,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3232,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.132,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2563
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  "score_distribution": {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020248452197206192
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020177953063267882
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      {
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        "probability": 0.01814221386130177
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04157975598917949,
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      "2": 0.09675612297065969,
      "3": 0.12360710889657761,
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      "13": 0.002143582125471117
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.12726106509832066,
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      "5": 0.14261664545210115,
      "6": 0.12593643140815122,
      "7": 0.0985436031906574,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0505,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.062,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5461,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.559,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5461,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.2563,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.132,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0505,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
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    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-13T18:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.563738,
      "confidence": 0.563738,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 4,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_COL@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickDET

Published scoreCOL 4 - 7 DET

Final confidence64.6%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 74.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=234

H2H base featurehome net 4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.2081

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.368595960917988-4.395031860372592	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-7	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-7	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-7	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-7	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "confidence": 0.292716,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.646358,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.646358,
    "away_win_probability": 0.353642
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.292716,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 7-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 7,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 7 DET",
    "confidence": 0.646358,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 234,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5598,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.7399,
    "published_confidence": 0.646358,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0333,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0333,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.6088,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.464,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.2081
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017313988908282483
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016710917444504418
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016612712944690595
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      {
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      {
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        "probability": 0.016121987112947028
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.016832956215918366,
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        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5598,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5556,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.2081,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 4,
            "home_runs": 7
          },
          "margin": 3,
          "probability_before": 0.722197,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.732588,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.953571,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.722197,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.722197
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 6,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "695549": 6,
            "687312": 12
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.675,
          "probability_before": 0.722197,
          "probability_after": 0.649983,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 1,
        "sample_weight": 0.0167,
        "home_net_margin": 4.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
        "home_average_margin": 4.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0333,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0333,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "DET",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 68,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.46258503401360546,
          "runs_scored": 647,
          "runs_allowed": 588,
          "run_differential": 59,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.4013605442176871,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 55,
          "losses": 92,
          "win_pct": 0.3741496598639456,
          "runs_scored": 688,
          "runs_allowed": 846,
          "run_differential": -158,
          "run_differential_per_game": -1.0748299319727892,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.4762,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0884,
        "quality_edge": 1.2081,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.6088,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.6088,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.464,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.2081
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.5074,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.5074,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.2081,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.6088,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.276,
          "home_runs": 7.229,
          "home_win_probability": 0.836
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 7,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01818988023897856
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 8,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.01752076961249472
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.017022767924689423
          },
          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.015478690898131158,
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          "9": 0.09891133213053996,
          "10": 0.08099360702379596,
          "11": 0.06114994987146138,
          "12": 0.04256789212457811,
          "13": 0.02732177185277781,
          "14": 0.016168742731690187,
          "15": 0.008822350675590692,
          "16": 0.004438467631778913,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.0497147756630829,
          "1": 0.08201240433823807,
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          "3": 0.14588894154508325,
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          "5": 0.14722158228930377,
          "6": 0.11957031939698692,
          "7": 0.08428045415972887,
          "8": 0.05155632048658401,
          "9": 0.0273708655799113,
          "10": 0.012610918486480131,
          "11": 0.0050426227042025635
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.368595960917988,
      "home_runs": 4.395031860372592,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_HOU@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreHOU 3 - 4 TB

Final confidence52.0%

Calibrationraw 49.0% → blended 52.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=638

H2H base featurehome net 0.0 · absolute 0.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.6145

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.9960058876042694-4.600226215941678	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.040386,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.520193,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.520193,
    "away_win_probability": 0.479807
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.040386,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 TB",
    "confidence": 0.5201931525,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.49034,
    "sample_size": 638,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52262,
    "published_confidence": 0.520193,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8162,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.24,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.6145
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02716146090465153
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.027095446398025753
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02680207071309599
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026736929685487593
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.0234970099899308
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06416066436929559,
      "1": 0.10200873135319463,
      "2": 0.13907058475660006,
      "3": 0.1625783289203163,
      "4": 0.16297442972685255,
      "5": 0.14008954509226093,
      "6": 0.10325745582640003,
      "7": 0.06526292818594068,
      "8": 0.0353704944737,
      "9": 0.016437855071215503,
      "10": 0.006550562627121463,
      "11": 0.0022384195971022563
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06711756371617257,
      "1": 0.10647001314579049,
      "2": 0.14417605282811616,
      "3": 0.16666087404125005,
      "4": 0.16445568030528862,
      "5": 0.13852839484141197,
      "6": 0.09961011126383906,
      "7": 0.06114243749861864,
      "8": 0.032037363676370265,
      "9": 0.014329977021660624,
      "10": 0.005471531661481458
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0836,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.24,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "TB",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6145,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5202,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5733,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5202,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6145,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.24,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0836,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
      }
    }
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  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    },
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      "home_runs": 4,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260913_KC@BOS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickBOS

Published scoreKC 2 - 4 BOS

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 51.4% → blended 53.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=281

H2H base featurehome net 12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9625

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6655158194538804-5.693600859452399	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.56,
    "away_win_probability": 0.44
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 2 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5136,
    "sample_size": 281,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53795,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 12.0,
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            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5136,
        "sample_size": 281,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.53795
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.53795,
        "final_confidence": 0.5924,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5924,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.96087,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.6,
        "calibration_sample_size": 281,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5585,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.9625,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.592367,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.581951,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.96087,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": true,
          "probability_after": 0.587159,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.587159
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 24,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": 12.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
        "home_average_margin": 2.4,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0692,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0692,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 6.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 149,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5436241610738255,
          "runs_scored": 659,
          "runs_allowed": 574,
          "run_differential": 85,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5704697986577181,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "KC",
          "games": 149,
          "wins": 66,
          "losses": 83,
          "win_pct": 0.4429530201342282,
          "runs_scored": 633,
          "runs_allowed": 724,
          "run_differential": -91,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.610738255033557,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.1812,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1007,
        "quality_edge": 0.9625,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.3322,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.3322,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.276,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.9625
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.4042,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.4042,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 0.9625,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.3322,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 1.718,
          "home_runs": 4.326,
          "home_win_probability": 0.7217
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03385770765184407
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03283432439477945
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.0323185331498044
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.03134167298967491
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.029394994034987156
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.06789460788594727,
          "1": 0.1103180914180184,
          "2": 0.15091922083547757,
          "3": 0.17383160044223248,
          "4": 0.1685773655344643,
          "5": 0.13764364220451267,
          "6": 0.09462358738156824,
          "7": 0.054768269855147246,
          "8": 0.026689779992066162,
          "9": 0.010950837275901668,
          "10": 0.003782997174663947
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.09023110051047374,
          "1": 0.14385735021056478,
          "2": 0.18591863083343388,
          "3": 0.19477303071311036,
          "4": 0.1654054386331969,
          "5": 0.11386383376545597,
          "6": 0.06353848757458129,
          "7": 0.028741074295444945,
          "8": 0.010538630442171716,
          "9": 0.003132423021566325
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.6655158194538804,
      "home_runs": 5.693600859452399,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_LAA@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreLAA 5 - 6 WAS

Final confidence57.1%

Calibrationraw 67.2% → blended 61.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.7% · weight 50.0% · n=262

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2749

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.655791425941122-6.026974611986137	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.142244,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.571122,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.571122,
    "away_win_probability": 0.428878
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.142244,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 5 - 6 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.57112188,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6725,
    "sample_size": 262,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5573,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.6149,
    "published_confidence": 0.571122,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6232,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.372,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2749
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01645243902892242
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.016224649766756572
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01584508085788399
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.015625700663176655
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.015319258758717662
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.021536534813722613,
      "1": 0.035432830992274345,
      "2": 0.05352890760512666,
      "3": 0.07425460821457765,
      "4": 0.09458253372930445,
      "5": 0.11062441306325502,
      "6": 0.1188074070488436,
      "7": 0.11716248063131254,
      "8": 0.10609284641492837,
      "9": 0.08821372212086497,
      "10": 0.06735016989295407,
      "11": 0.04721649514434141,
      "12": 0.030394940667464877,
      "13": 0.01796641205892979,
      "14": 0.009751555898154652,
      "15": 0.004860030287020864,
      "16": 0.002224111416924417
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03752618478599979,
      "1": 0.06092836532177603,
      "2": 0.08846415206667943,
      "3": 0.11486237477607737,
      "4": 0.1333677861631121,
      "5": 0.13847990994499662,
      "6": 0.12858351153217382,
      "7": 0.10676931846080243,
      "8": 0.07928122250669092,
      "9": 0.0526449703298014,
      "10": 0.03126123357623931,
      "11": 0.016600379506554963,
      "12": 0.007883019505612036,
      "13": 0.0033475715234839356
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 6 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "LAA 5 - 6 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0981,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.022,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2749,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5711,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5361,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5711,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2749,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.372,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0981,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.4,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.4,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 7
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
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      "home_runs": 6.026974611986137,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 5,
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_LAD@MIA

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 8 - 5 MIA

Final confidence60.0%

Calibrationraw 89.2% → blended 72.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.4% · weight 50.0% · n=280

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1782

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.534965283387187-4.254246232183651	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	8-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	8-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	8-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	8-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	8-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.2,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.6,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.4,
    "away_win_probability": 0.6
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.2,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 8-5",
    "away_runs": 8,
    "home_runs": 5
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1566,
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.4948,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
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        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 4.186,
          "home_win_probability": 0.182
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      "score_distribution": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 8,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_NYM@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreNYM 5 - 6 NYY

Final confidence56.4%

Calibrationraw 62.4% → blended 59.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.6% · weight 50.0% · n=281

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.8824

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.836363922162656-5.7420339989758284	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.12789,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.563945,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.563945,
    "away_win_probability": 0.436055
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.12789,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.5639448625,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.624263,
    "sample_size": 281,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5658,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.595031,
    "published_confidence": 0.563945,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.25,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0062,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0062,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3639,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.012,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.8824
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017738200724178515
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017654282893026372
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0172431260889176
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01716155041130716
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.016284241079129406
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.028650537192304305,
      "1": 0.04685247276876973,
      "2": 0.06950630659496403,
      "3": 0.09354225900073651,
      "4": 0.11420455946525268,
      "5": 0.1264884816113722,
      "6": 0.12708973169368207,
      "7": 0.1158408921535938,
      "8": 0.0957867132698887,
      "9": 0.07185228713082376,
      "10": 0.048895384885236794,
      "11": 0.030184715622756257,
      "12": 0.016904341408472405,
      "13": 0.00858818456883129,
      "14": 0.003958188114886431,
      "15": 0.001654944518429145
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03881282624862289,
      "1": 0.06295224762913125,
      "2": 0.09111955924383057,
      "3": 0.11769997677999099,
      "4": 0.13567678410461856,
      "5": 0.13957225723736674,
      "6": 0.128131839308454,
      "7": 0.10497343671138262,
      "8": 0.07674784118814908,
      "9": 0.050074580284259484,
      "10": 0.029156330501586572,
      "11": 0.015150006123689086,
      "12": 0.007025175035531361,
      "13": 0.002907139603386829
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1079,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.012,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8824,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.5639,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6477,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5639,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.8824,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.012,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1079,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 13,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-ed18fee8af33cf7e",
      "config_hash": "sha256:f542511539f291f9f8af06cbdac9abb41ef927ee79bd9dfa8da0185765dd9140",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
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      "home_runs": 5.7420339989758284,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_PHI@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickATL

Published scorePHI 4 - 5 ATL

Final confidence54.3%

Calibrationraw 54.6% → blended 55.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.3% · weight 50.0% · n=542

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3651

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.421880447704731-5.07696556470359	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.086078,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.543039,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.543039,
    "away_win_probability": 0.456961
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.086078,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5430386025,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.546388,
    "sample_size": 542,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.554544,
    "published_confidence": 0.543039,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5574,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.008,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3651
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023127901147422466
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02277033097939044
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02223807795566276
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02189426494726957
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020843515422314347
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.045007481053248276,
      "1": 0.07264451911610267,
      "2": 0.1036214685365942,
      "3": 0.13062472113230256,
      "4": 0.14552236811587924,
      "5": 0.1432725116637985,
      "6": 0.12465931586924092,
      "7": 0.09585512715700482,
      "8": 0.06513804200502415,
      "9": 0.03911855427112874,
      "10": 0.020761543407445765,
      "11": 0.00973789795666644,
      "12": 0.004036449715563453
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05752083757383735,
      "1": 0.09193414914510847,
      "2": 0.12732810986497534,
      "3": 0.1528155309976444,
      "4": 0.15893021428159934,
      "5": 0.14323238201921432,
      "6": 0.11185920579911951,
      "7": 0.07570037309879121,
      "8": 0.04439357089906039,
      "9": 0.02255993849452825,
      "10": 0.009934625814090174,
      "11": 0.003791062012031055
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 ATL",
      "winner": "ATL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0374,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.078,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "model_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner": "ATL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 1,
        "published_winner": "ATL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "ATL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3651,
      "winner": "ATL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "ATL",
    "display_confidence": 0.543,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6128,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.543,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3651,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.008,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0374,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 0
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b"
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    "changes": [
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        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T16:32:03.114648+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-13T17:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.559569,
      "confidence": 0.559569,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.560163,
      "confidence": 0.560163,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
            "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
            "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.546388,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.554544,
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        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3651,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 22,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
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        "home_net_margin": 2.0,
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        "home_average_margin": 0.4,
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        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": 1.0
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            "home_margin": -1.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 148,
          "wins": 87,
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          "runs_scored": 677,
          "runs_allowed": 566,
          "run_differential": 111,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 148,
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          "losses": 66,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.5068,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0338,
        "quality_edge": 0.3651,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5574,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.008,
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          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.003130944964477722
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.421880447704731,
      "home_runs": 5.07696556470359,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_PIT@CHC

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHC

Published scorePIT 3 - 4 CHC

Final confidence51.9%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=629

H2H base featurehome net 22.0 · absolute 22.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.5674

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.474135732027581-4.919246006870572	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.03777,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.518885,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.518885,
    "away_win_probability": 0.481115
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.03777,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.5188854275,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 629,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5501,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5051,
    "published_confidence": 0.518885,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 22.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 22.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1269,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1269,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.8557,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.032,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.5674
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.031609295013083266
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.029826474420296206
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.029248783763762807
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.0286298274213383
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02823264120357392
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07508487496440754,
      "1": 0.11834996702799754,
      "2": 0.15721994188721955,
      "3": 0.17602361356201543,
      "4": 0.16609556793666183,
      "5": 0.13208970382434804,
      "6": 0.08853269803896743,
      "7": 0.05001062055492417,
      "8": 0.02380918876399679,
      "9": 0.009553241655811218,
      "10": 0.0032305817836502646
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07855003904884567,
      "1": 0.12346635881236824,
      "2": 0.1626476518802498,
      "3": 0.17957417401811773,
      "4": 0.16616397750213255,
      "5": 0.12886257448780458,
      "6": 0.08375556066463152,
      "7": 0.04562442655495139,
      "8": 0.020829464742442756,
      "9": 0.007969952320453964,
      "10": 0.0025558199680020205
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1325,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.242,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5674,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.5189,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5848,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5189,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5674,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1325,
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          "9": 0.008265796688940947,
          "10": 0.0026272889339575486
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07673506615693394,
          "1": 0.12377105473901005,
          "2": 0.16563732232990686,
          "3": 0.18391247953848475,
          "4": 0.16942523138783988,
          "5": 0.12949674865081418,
          "6": 0.08212086793271897,
          "7": 0.043207793264566634,
          "8": 0.018861860612364226,
          "9": 0.006831575387360508
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.474135732027581,
      "home_runs": 4.919246006870572,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_SD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreSD 6 - 4 SF

Final confidence53.9%

Calibrationraw 51.4% → blended 53.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=355

H2H base featurehome net -12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.6385

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.294866293984419-3.3916427658342436	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.07804,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53902,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.46098,
    "away_win_probability": 0.53902
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.07804,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 6 - 4 SF",
    "confidence": 0.5390201,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5136,
    "sample_size": 355,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53565,
    "published_confidence": 0.53902,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8251,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.292,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.6385
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01901431225493028
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.0189508060225756
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01828319618248427
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018222131817421577
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01779633319352236
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04228780424574101,
      "1": 0.06839850258111087,
      "2": 0.09818234978529239,
      "3": 0.12507647087303006,
      "4": 0.1414077411806842,
      "5": 0.14188161405223768,
      "6": 0.12633812435595365,
      "7": 0.09983851179972891,
      "8": 0.07001919956361857,
      "9": 0.04358043430442682,
      "10": 0.02407250775632464,
      "11": 0.011800665114189313,
      "12": 0.005133895278556789,
      "13": 0.00198217910910541
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03354424932648922,
      "1": 0.05463646009447098,
      "2": 0.08008818176692113,
      "3": 0.1056515125107313,
      "4": 0.12543086228896538,
      "5": 0.13401533653211495,
      "6": 0.12886233571992492,
      "7": 0.11151130568026223,
      "8": 0.08684267796011953,
      "9": 0.06086518100803973,
      "10": 0.03839070016848917,
      "11": 0.021792374423153456,
      "12": 0.011132801757349183,
      "13": 0.005118300775287833,
      "14": 0.0021177199876808673
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 6 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "SD 6 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "SD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.051,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.642,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "SD",
      "model_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner": "SD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "SD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6385,
      "winner": "SD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SD",
    "display_confidence": 0.539,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6647,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.539,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.6385,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.292,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.051,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T22:35:47.728958+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-13T23:20:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.454094,
      "confidence": 0.545906,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.453729,
      "confidence": 0.546271,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.5136,
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          "published_score": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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          "min_starter_games": 5,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
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            "home_margin": -1.0
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            "home_margin": -2.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5033557046979866,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6385,
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        "season_quality_edge": -0.8251,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.2682,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
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          "quality_edge": -0.6385,
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          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
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        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 3.223,
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      "score_distribution": {
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.02014816728848917,
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          "13": 0.004356159050341578
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
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      }
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    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.294866293984419,
      "home_runs": 3.3916427658342436,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_SEA@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreSEA 6 - 5 OAK

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 71.0% → blended 63.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.6% · weight 50.0% · n=342

H2H base featurehome net -14.0 · absolute 14.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.7207

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.699828309069839-4.595985841797148	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	6-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.710067,
    "sample_size": 342,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.632834,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -14.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 14.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0808,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0808,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -18.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.0872,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.04,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.7207
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.0160984167839941
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015824114840864205
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015375032058217502
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.015150864392144178
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.015113055913243627
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03430143455838032,
      "1": 0.0558353973449747,
      "2": 0.08169473074282779,
      "3": 0.10743989802500922,
      "4": 0.12700599940399576,
      "5": 0.13494909990306336,
      "6": 0.12888514225200817,
      "7": 0.11064271529928849,
      "8": 0.08537483994694717,
      "9": 0.05921395738488458,
      "10": 0.03691521296177488,
      "11": 0.02068586931509786,
      "12": 0.010419077830660189,
      "13": 0.004717065370704512,
      "14": 0.0019195596603831392
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02181959703978624,
      "1": 0.03588958060522039,
      "2": 0.05417835414998555,
      "3": 0.07506180421749298,
      "4": 0.095443851726553,
      "5": 0.11138140261288769,
      "6": 0.11929250951327512,
      "7": 0.11725987688862677,
      "8": 0.10578435927637185,
      "9": 0.08758490291670996,
      "10": 0.06655379318890557,
      "11": 0.04641433577066615,
      "12": 0.02970757714011493,
      "13": 0.017450910623777585,
      "14": 0.009408160591454051,
      "15": 0.0046550796526371235,
      "16": 0.002113904085534986
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1319,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.592,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "win_pct": 0.4697986577181208,
          "runs_scored": 605,
          "runs_allowed": 662,
          "run_differential": -57,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.3825503355704698,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.9866,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0671,
        "quality_edge": -0.7207,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.0872,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.0872,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.04,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.7207
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.3027,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.3027,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.7207,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.0872,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 6.463,
          "home_runs": 4.447,
          "home_win_probability": 0.3286
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 6,
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          {
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          {
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          {
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            "away_runs": 7,
            "probability": 0.015849247167044708
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "11": 0.019057824190504637,
          "12": 0.009230158024553538,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "6": 0.12243196565377541,
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          "13": 0.01604712241470647,
          "14": 0.008351252227512533,
          "15": 0.003969286232175953
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.699828309069839,
      "home_runs": 4.595985841797148,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260913_TEX@ARI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTEX

Published scoreTEX 4 - 3 ARI

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.9% · weight 50.0% · n=441

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3117

Simulation variance1.85

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.691517090991835-5.451224276901294	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.011302,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505651,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494349,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505651
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.011302,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.505651395,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 441,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5488,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.50445,
    "published_confidence": 0.505651,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.2,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0058,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0058,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 8.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3826,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.18,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3117
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.033786105206019164
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03140687544222795
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.030919693293577508
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      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03081348036067925
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03014639446381874
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08509115157535964,
      "1": 0.13305466319916057,
      "2": 0.1725677546420665,
      "3": 0.18564063541526762,
      "4": 0.16564193444663727,
      "5": 0.1225889685147704,
      "6": 0.07525170381348407,
      "7": 0.03831467390804519,
      "8": 0.01618071764431184,
      "9": 0.005667796840896794
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08110642144941532,
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      "2": 0.1665567090115367,
      "3": 0.18199735812389112,
      "4": 0.16598456631949807,
      "5": 0.12634847482835526,
      "6": 0.0802734578752631,
      "7": 0.042567055524467275,
      "8": 0.018839740661370334,
      "9": 0.006959465752388709,
      "10": 0.0021457373225930794
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.85,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 ARI",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 ARI",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0556,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.11,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "ARI",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3117,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 3,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5057,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5221,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5057,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.3117,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.18,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0556,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 2,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-12T09:04:27.150731+00:00",
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.85,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 1.75,
        "new_value": 1.85,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T19:36:11.489619+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-13T20:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.492178,
      "confidence": 0.507822,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 6
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.491957,
      "confidence": 0.508043,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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    },
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "raw_confidence": 0.50445,
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        "score_coherence": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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          {
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      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3221,
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.691517090991835,
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260913	20260913_BAL@TOR	TOR	53.0%	53.6%	55.3%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	1-8	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.536487, "sample_size": 638, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5533, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.544894, "published_confidence": 0.529621, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -13.0, "absolute_net_margin": 13.0, "home_average_margin": -2.6, "home_run_delta": -0.075, "away_run_delta": 0.075, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1115, "recent_quality_edge": 0.4, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0675 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03407819864653504 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03180362951833271 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031302137975194363 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.030919951268836936 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.030239530414274518 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08201470744065047, "1": 0.128550948380848, "2": 0.16792616573335314, "3": 0.18281886171312361, "4": 0.16587585376285063, "5": 0.12543099971476082, "6": 0.07904713577009327, "7": 0.04151709276599601, "8": 0.01817302703406496, "9": 0.006629597357609287, "10": 0.002015610326649873 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08605006461562073, "1": 0.13444795748585728, "2": 0.17396251798262724, "3": 0.1864041725629492, "4": 0.16540705992210966, "5": 0.12154886924945386, "6": 0.07396840806755002, "7": 0.03727692579595238, "8": 0.01555723365719279, "9": 0.005376790660686728 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 2 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 2 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0314, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.33, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "TOR", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0675, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_CHW@STL	STL	50.8%	51.0%	55.0%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	1-3	hit	Variance Applied (0.3269)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 627, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5502, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53015, "published_confidence": 0.508455, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 1.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0225, "away_run_delta": -0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.339, "recent_quality_edge": 0.312, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.1112 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019850101021333996 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019666045110455048 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019444027412150358 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019263736733898786 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01805371114905434 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.039872628159598085, "1": 0.0646163277148236, "2": 0.09329039975174397, "3": 0.11999382773290433, "4": 0.13750172046943535, "5": 0.1403733385101038, "6": 0.12766986443878203, "7": 0.10344736606062511, "8": 0.07467543292001044, "9": 0.04802455313698128, "10": 0.027515422616519614, "11": 0.014044824426684652, "12": 0.0063868058297722454, "13": 0.002587488232015482 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.041453863258109014, "1": 0.067094134191636, "2": 0.0965018485066891, "3": 0.12334406261226381, "4": 0.14009815054045696, "5": 0.1414093390669427, "6": 0.1268397331521656, "7": 0.10110300964021311, "8": 0.07161506411122294, "9": 0.04507920238212141, "10": 0.025216197552504448, "11": 0.012534716337714998, "12": 0.005537082052433412, "13": 0.002173596595526626 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0135, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.312, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1112, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_CIN@MIL	MIL	54.0%	92.0%	56.6%	50.0%	4.0-8.0	4-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (6.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 346, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5665, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.74325, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 21.0, "absolute_net_margin": 21.0, "home_average_margin": 4.2, "home_run_delta": 0.1212, "away_run_delta": -0.1212, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 20.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.5388, "recent_quality_edge": 1.152, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 2.0534 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01597338574484949 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015949231441282363 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015517199123921119 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015493734647188524 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.014888170207964544 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.01425188486669867, "1": 0.023605849954349827, "2": 0.03638765809847024, "3": 0.05220062400120411, "4": 0.06969223779008904, "5": 0.08659249457057404, "6": 0.10012976995612415, "7": 0.1077539779094198, "8": 0.10791716585377763, "9": 0.10058538366609261, "10": 0.08725018337460498, "11": 0.07043442054201782, "12": 0.05291644619111881, "13": 0.036998449086632176, "14": 0.024074844760680704, "15": 0.01457909605359785, "16": 0.008216461512324942, "17": 0.004309492996786893, "18": 0.002103558815435941 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04688158887457973, "1": 0.07555690510550044, "2": 0.10729565310011799, "3": 0.13425368764164392, "4": 0.14801524501201813, "5": 0.14378805263424124, "6": 0.12307654162434291, "7": 0.09282477292613456, "8": 0.061686287757543916, "9": 0.03612014659203205, "10": 0.018635733952986604, "11": 0.00847187673293399, "12": 0.0033935080459244057 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 8 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 8 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0127, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.222, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 2.0534, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_CLE@MIN	MIN	54.6%	51.0%	54.6%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	9-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 355, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5465, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5283, "published_confidence": 0.546051, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3232, "recent_quality_edge": -0.132, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2563 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020248452197206192 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020177953063267882 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02007880522364718 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020008896750397135 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01814221386130177 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04157975598917949, "1": 0.06729115050978952, "2": 0.09675612297065969, "3": 0.12360710889657761, "4": 0.14029846717378633, "5": 0.14148385694603086, "6": 0.12676674570666097, "7": 0.10091326997915678, "8": 0.07137328792456667, "9": 0.044850533656292206, "10": 0.02504055860043228, "11": 0.012421238406317687, "12": 0.0054743211150786696, "13": 0.002143582125471117 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.043321424562560586, "1": 0.07001715304926472, "2": 0.10027716706018525, "3": 0.12726106509832066, "4": 0.14311492939388826, "5": 0.14261664545210115, "6": 0.12593643140815122, "7": 0.0985436031906574, "8": 0.06832842065693168, "9": 0.04198268559499526, "10": 0.022857826924457324, "11": 0.011027969411490377, "12": 0.004714678196996115 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0505, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.062, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.2563, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_COL@DET	DET	64.6%	92.0%	56.0%	50.0%	4.0-7.0	1-8	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 234, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5598, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.7399, "published_confidence": 0.646358, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": 4.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0333, "away_run_delta": -0.0333, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.6088, "recent_quality_edge": 0.464, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.2081 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017313988908282483 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016710917444504418 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016612712944690595 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016261260684803498 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.016121987112947028 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.016832956215918366, "1": 0.027812335529842393, "2": 0.04255603045832572, "3": 0.06030194866340522, "4": 0.07913127563995545, "5": 0.09616379007133567, "6": 0.1082234965272033, "7": 0.11279195786540114, "8": 0.10886324961147927, "9": 0.09730407700226476, "10": 0.08054291906790406, "11": 0.061740519307665755, "12": 0.04382881969837715, "13": 0.02881348949442747, "14": 0.0175419764564066, "15": 0.009890261509251153, "16": 0.0051639688132952815, "17": 0.00249692806754097 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.051626871610512486, "1": 0.0828931873563325, "2": 0.11639662313559249, "3": 0.14293560833642055, "4": 0.15350375360044652, "5": 0.14417039115686484, "6": 0.11841634868092442, "7": 0.08506007598860423, "8": 0.053434085230673015, "9": 0.02935550143347738, "10": 0.01410389737535027, "11": 0.005926076958659805, "12": 0.0021775791361414967 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "COL 4 - 7 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "COL 4 - 7 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0278, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.814, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.25, "draw_majority_team": "COL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.2081, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 7, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_HOU@TB	TB	52.0%	49.0%	55.5%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-14	hit	Variance Applied (0.3958)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.49034, "sample_size": 638, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5549, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52262, "published_confidence": 0.520193, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "absolute_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": -0.0, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.8162, "recent_quality_edge": 0.24, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.6145 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02716146090465153 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.027095446398025753 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02680207071309599 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026736929685487593 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.0234970099899308 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06416066436929559, "1": 0.10200873135319463, "2": 0.13907058475660006, "3": 0.1625783289203163, "4": 0.16297442972685255, "5": 0.14008954509226093, "6": 0.10325745582640003, "7": 0.06526292818594068, "8": 0.0353704944737, "9": 0.016437855071215503, "10": 0.006550562627121463, "11": 0.0022384195971022563 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06711756371617257, "1": 0.10647001314579049, "2": 0.14417605282811616, "3": 0.16666087404125005, "4": 0.16445568030528862, "5": 0.13852839484141197, "6": 0.09961011126383906, "7": 0.06114243749861864, "8": 0.032037363676370265, "9": 0.014329977021660624, "10": 0.005471531661481458 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0836, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.24, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "TB", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6145, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_KC@BOS	BOS	56.0%	51.4%	56.2%	50.0%	2.0-4.0	1-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5136, "sample_size": 281, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53795, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": 2.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0692, "away_run_delta": -0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3322, "recent_quality_edge": 0.276, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9625 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.032453272011224624 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03152459642253975 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.031055948053522443 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03016725797534491 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028391764174279847 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06992095504369253, "1": 0.11066839028826683, "2": 0.14885545999319996, "3": 0.17014957942950076, "4": 0.16528061703992958, "5": 0.13643880463645164, "6": 0.09571473931615634, "7": 0.05706169533201147, "8": 0.028909158825781916, "9": 0.012446612656783575, "10": 0.004553987438225561 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.09211246918351575, "1": 0.14320038417573838, "2": 0.1825214505827801, "3": 0.1907337774212437, "4": 0.16341250139726593, "5": 0.11478546967283142, "6": 0.06610472805962996, "7": 0.031212036065833264, "8": 0.012082467813127237, "9": 0.0038347156280342364 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 2 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 2 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0335, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.486, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9625, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_LAA@WAS	WAS	57.1%	67.2%	55.7%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	5-6	hit	Variance Applied (-0.3712)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6725, "sample_size": 262, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5573, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.6149, "published_confidence": 0.571122, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0083, "away_run_delta": -0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6232, "recent_quality_edge": -0.372, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2749 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01645243902892242 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.016224649766756572 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01584508085788399 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.015625700663176655 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.015319258758717662 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.021536534813722613, "1": 0.035432830992274345, "2": 0.05352890760512666, "3": 0.07425460821457765, "4": 0.09458253372930445, "5": 0.11062441306325502, "6": 0.1188074070488436, "7": 0.11716248063131254, "8": 0.10609284641492837, "9": 0.08821372212086497, "10": 0.06735016989295407, "11": 0.04721649514434141, "12": 0.030394940667464877, "13": 0.01796641205892979, "14": 0.009751555898154652, "15": 0.004860030287020864, "16": 0.002224111416924417 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03752618478599979, "1": 0.06092836532177603, "2": 0.08846415206667943, "3": 0.11486237477607737, "4": 0.1333677861631121, "5": 0.13847990994499662, "6": 0.12858351153217382, "7": 0.10676931846080243, "8": 0.07928122250669092, "9": 0.0526449703298014, "10": 0.03126123357623931, "11": 0.016600379506554963, "12": 0.007883019505612036, "13": 0.0033475715234839356 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 6 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "LAA 5 - 6 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0981, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.022, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "LAA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2749, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_LAD@MIA	LAD	60.0%	89.2%	56.4%	50.0%	8.0-5.0	4-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.892387, "sample_size": 280, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5643, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.728343, "published_confidence": 0.6, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -0.75, "home_run_delta": -0.0187, "away_run_delta": 0.0187, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.3452, "recent_quality_edge": -0.868, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1782 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.014066058218542328 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.013605339414482148 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 9, "probability": 0.013591373311904303 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013566305593625212 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 8, "probability": 0.013132403231630072 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0332055702085522, "1": 0.05409974378434296, "2": 0.07936709016487567, "3": 0.10484475077207935, "4": 0.12471362679209054, "5": 0.13358020646807084, "6": 0.1288342387077933, "7": 0.11188747278219083, "8": 0.0874968901242326, "9": 0.06161192157615789, "10": 0.03906590363425979, "11": 0.02230447363592891, "12": 0.011466927506935249, "13": 0.005308393869540405, "14": 0.0022127899729494534 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.012142476814041483, "1": 0.02015463823763427, "2": 0.031265878253513665, "3": 0.045330880877994924, "4": 0.061425059410383516, "5": 0.0777902044235342, "6": 0.0920729676032744, "7": 0.10185146268458703, "8": 0.10530046771491167, "9": 0.10174691049869725, "10": 0.09188403582110752, "11": 0.07755089151355705, "12": 0.06117323220227071, "13": 0.04509869361664958, "14": 0.031073802166611042, "15": 0.020010260014604094, "16": 0.012043118736108496, "17": 0.006774123424926534, "18": 0.003561189982926143, "19": 0.0017497060026661576 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAD 8 - 5 MIA", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAD 8 - 5 MIA", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0123, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.868, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 3, "simulation_margin": 3, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 3, "final_margin": 3, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1782, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_NYM@NYY	NYY	56.4%	62.4%	56.6%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	0-2	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.624263, "sample_size": 281, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5658, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.595031, "published_confidence": 0.563945, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.25, "home_run_delta": 0.0062, "away_run_delta": -0.0062, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3639, "recent_quality_edge": -0.012, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.8824 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017738200724178515 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017654282893026372 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0172431260889176 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01716155041130716 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.016284241079129406 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.028650537192304305, "1": 0.04685247276876973, "2": 0.06950630659496403, "3": 0.09354225900073651, "4": 0.11420455946525268, "5": 0.1264884816113722, "6": 0.12708973169368207, "7": 0.1158408921535938, "8": 0.0957867132698887, "9": 0.07185228713082376, "10": 0.048895384885236794, "11": 0.030184715622756257, "12": 0.016904341408472405, "13": 0.00858818456883129, "14": 0.003958188114886431, "15": 0.001654944518429145 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03881282624862289, "1": 0.06295224762913125, "2": 0.09111955924383057, "3": 0.11769997677999099, "4": 0.13567678410461856, "5": 0.13957225723736674, "6": 0.128131839308454, "7": 0.10497343671138262, "8": 0.07674784118814908, "9": 0.050074580284259484, "10": 0.029156330501586572, "11": 0.015150006123689086, "12": 0.007025175035531361, "13": 0.002907139603386829 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1079, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.012, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.8824, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_PHI@ATL	ATL	54.3%	54.6%	56.3%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	9-4	miss	Variance Applied (0.3449)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.546388, "sample_size": 542, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5627, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.554544, "published_confidence": 0.543039, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0115, "away_run_delta": -0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5574, "recent_quality_edge": 0.008, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3651 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023127901147422466 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02277033097939044 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02223807795566276 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02189426494726957 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020843515422314347 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.045007481053248276, "1": 0.07264451911610267, "2": 0.1036214685365942, "3": 0.13062472113230256, "4": 0.14552236811587924, "5": 0.1432725116637985, "6": 0.12465931586924092, "7": 0.09585512715700482, "8": 0.06513804200502415, "9": 0.03911855427112874, "10": 0.020761543407445765, "11": 0.00973789795666644, "12": 0.004036449715563453 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05752083757383735, "1": 0.09193414914510847, "2": 0.12732810986497534, "3": 0.1528155309976444, "4": 0.15893021428159934, "5": 0.14323238201921432, "6": 0.11185920579911951, "7": 0.07570037309879121, "8": 0.04439357089906039, "9": 0.02255993849452825, "10": 0.009934625814090174, "11": 0.003791062012031055 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 5 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0374, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.078, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ATL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3651, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_PIT@CHC	CHC	51.9%	46.0%	55.0%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	4-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.5549)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 629, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5501, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5051, "published_confidence": 0.518885, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 22.0, "absolute_net_margin": 22.0, "home_average_margin": 4.4, "home_run_delta": 0.1269, "away_run_delta": -0.1269, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 10.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.8557, "recent_quality_edge": 0.032, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.5674 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.031609295013083266 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.029826474420296206 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.029248783763762807 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.0286298274213383 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02823264120357392 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07508487496440754, "1": 0.11834996702799754, "2": 0.15721994188721955, "3": 0.17602361356201543, "4": 0.16609556793666183, "5": 0.13208970382434804, "6": 0.08853269803896743, "7": 0.05001062055492417, "8": 0.02380918876399679, "9": 0.009553241655811218, "10": 0.0032305817836502646 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07855003904884567, "1": 0.12346635881236824, "2": 0.1626476518802498, "3": 0.17957417401811773, "4": 0.16616397750213255, "5": 0.12886257448780458, "6": 0.08375556066463152, "7": 0.04562442655495139, "8": 0.020829464742442756, "9": 0.007969952320453964, "10": 0.0025558199680020205 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1325, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.242, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5674, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_SD@SF	SD	53.9%	51.4%	55.8%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	6-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5136, "sample_size": 355, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5577, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53565, "published_confidence": 0.53902, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": -2.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0692, "away_run_delta": 0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8251, "recent_quality_edge": -0.292, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.6385 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01901431225493028 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.0189508060225756 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01828319618248427 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018222131817421577 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01779633319352236 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04228780424574101, "1": 0.06839850258111087, "2": 0.09818234978529239, "3": 0.12507647087303006, "4": 0.1414077411806842, "5": 0.14188161405223768, "6": 0.12633812435595365, "7": 0.09983851179972891, "8": 0.07001919956361857, "9": 0.04358043430442682, "10": 0.02407250775632464, "11": 0.011800665114189313, "12": 0.005133895278556789, "13": 0.00198217910910541 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03354424932648922, "1": 0.05463646009447098, "2": 0.08008818176692113, "3": 0.1056515125107313, "4": 0.12543086228896538, "5": 0.13401533653211495, "6": 0.12886233571992492, "7": 0.11151130568026223, "8": 0.08684267796011953, "9": 0.06086518100803973, "10": 0.03839070016848917, "11": 0.021792374423153456, "12": 0.011132801757349183, "13": 0.005118300775287833, "14": 0.0021177199876808673 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 6 - 4 SF", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 6 - 4 SF", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.051, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.642, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.6385, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_SEA@OAK	SEA	56.0%	71.0%	55.6%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	7-8	miss	Variance Applied (-0.1038)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.710067, "sample_size": 342, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5556, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.632834, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -14.0, "absolute_net_margin": 14.0, "home_average_margin": -2.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0808, "away_run_delta": 0.0808, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -18.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.0872, "recent_quality_edge": -0.04, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.7207 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.0160984167839941 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015824114840864205 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015375032058217502 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.015150864392144178 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.015113055913243627 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03430143455838032, "1": 0.0558353973449747, "2": 0.08169473074282779, "3": 0.10743989802500922, "4": 0.12700599940399576, "5": 0.13494909990306336, "6": 0.12888514225200817, "7": 0.11064271529928849, "8": 0.08537483994694717, "9": 0.05921395738488458, "10": 0.03691521296177488, "11": 0.02068586931509786, "12": 0.010419077830660189, "13": 0.004717065370704512, "14": 0.0019195596603831392 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02181959703978624, "1": 0.03588958060522039, "2": 0.05417835414998555, "3": 0.07506180421749298, "4": 0.095443851726553, "5": 0.11138140261288769, "6": 0.11929250951327512, "7": 0.11725987688862677, "8": 0.10578435927637185, "9": 0.08758490291670996, "10": 0.06655379318890557, "11": 0.04641433577066615, "12": 0.02970757714011493, "13": 0.017450910623777585, "14": 0.009408160591454051, "15": 0.0046550796526371235, "16": 0.002113904085534986 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SEA 6 - 5 OAK", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1319, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.03, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.7207, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260913	20260913_TEX@ARI	TEX	50.6%	46.0%	54.9%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	7-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 441, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5488, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.50445, "published_confidence": 0.505651, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.2, "home_run_delta": 0.0058, "away_run_delta": -0.0058, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 8.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3826, "recent_quality_edge": 0.18, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3117 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.033786105206019164 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03140687544222795 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.030919693293577508 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03081348036067925 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03014639446381874 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.08509115157535964, "1": 0.13305466319916057, "2": 0.1725677546420665, "3": 0.18564063541526762, "4": 0.16564193444663727, "5": 0.1225889685147704, "6": 0.07525170381348407, "7": 0.03831467390804519, "8": 0.01618071764431184, "9": 0.005667796840896794 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08110642144941532, "1": 0.1272210131312209, "2": 0.1665567090115367, "3": 0.18199735812389112, "4": 0.16598456631949807, "5": 0.12634847482835526, "6": 0.0802734578752631, "7": 0.042567055524467275, "8": 0.018839740661370334, "9": 0.006959465752388709, "10": 0.0021457373225930794 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.85, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0556, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.11, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3117, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.0667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0667 }
R	{ "mae": 1.5667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4333 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.3667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.7 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.4, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0667 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.1667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.6333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.7333, "mae_innings": 0.9111, "bias_outs": 1.0667 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260913

20260913_BAL@TOR

away

Trevor Rogers

True

6.0

5/7

2/1

3/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.153846153846154,
      "WHIP": 1.2131868131868133,
      "IP": 151.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.617,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 7.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2218,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9811,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
      "walk_factor": 0.934,
      "homer_factor": 0.9726,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.9,
      "woba": 0.305,
      "xwoba": 0.294,
      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 89,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 126.0,
            "Pitches": 485.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 97.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9375,
            "WHIP": 1.0938,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.1,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 60.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 938.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 6.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6685,
            "WHIP": 1.0761,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40761,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97826,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09783,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09783
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.2,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 138.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 629.0,
            "Pitches": 2440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5926,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 5.4444,
            "BB": 1.3704,
            "SO": 5.1111,
            "HR": 0.5926,
            "BF": 23.2963,
            "Pitches": 90.3704
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.2132,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96923,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24396,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90989,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10549
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.689,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9095425227770824,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669432",
      "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
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      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4865,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 692.0,
        "run_differential": -24.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1622,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5135,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6757,
        "offense_index": 1.0026,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1013
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4932,
        "runs_scored": 593.0,
        "runs_allowed": 635.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2838,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0068,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2905,
        "offense_index": 0.89,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0405
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0608,
        "offense_edge": 0.0026,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.11,
        "defense_strength": -0.0372,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0009,
        "run_prevention": 0.9892,
        "strikeout": 1.007
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669432",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669432",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 599.0,
            "k_percent": 21.9,
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            "woba": 0.305,
            "xwoba": 0.294,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.382,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.776,
            "whiff_percent": 23.8,
            "swing_percent": 53.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2992,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0986,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4857,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.825,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0344
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669432",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.23497714243578,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.749885233124,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.23497714243578,
                "release_spin_rate": 2203.749885233124,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.235,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.7499,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0344,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2218,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9811,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "669432",
            "espn_id": 39640,
            "player_name": "Trevor Rogers",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 89,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 89,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 294,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
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              "qs_rank": 25,
              "era_value": 4.1538,
              "era_rank": 41.0,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "h_rank": 26,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 32,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 85,
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              "k_value": 138.0,
              "k_rank": 47,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.189011,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2131,
              "whip_rank": 32.0,
              "war_value": 1.78,
              "war_rank": 33.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9811,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9811,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.9726,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9926,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_BAL@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_BAL@TOR

home

Dylan Cease

True

6.0

5.0

-3

5/4

1/5

5/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.3987603305785123,
      "WHIP": 1.0413223140495866,
      "IP": 161.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.975,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9208,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.1246,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 0.8891,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 35.2,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.247,
      "xwoba": 0.259,
      "barrel_percent": 5.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.3,
      "whiff_percent": 33.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 4,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656302",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
            "Pitches": 484.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 96.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.4,
            "WHIP": 0.9,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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            {
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2838,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 668.0,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.7488,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.9318,
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            "player_name": "Dylan Cease",
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              "k_value": 227.0,
              "k_rank": 3,
              "k_per_9_value": 12.663223,
              "k_per_9_rank": 2.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0413,
              "whip_rank": 9.0,
              "war_value": 5.82,
              "war_rank": 4.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9208,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9208,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.8891,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.1246,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_BAL@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_CHW@STL

away

David Sandlin

True

4.0

5.2

-6

5/2

3/0

4/5

Last 10 before this game (2 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 8.1,
      "WHIP": 1.3,
      "IP": 10.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 2,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0516,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9959,
      "walk_factor": 1.0189,
      "homer_factor": 1.0074,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 11.3,
      "woba": 0.346,
      "xwoba": 0.318,
      "barrel_percent": 10.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 711,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 2.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "prior_weight": 0.7143
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "689818",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 2,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 42.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 4.5,
            "R": 4.5,
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            "SO": 4.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.9,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 42.0,
            "Pitches": 141.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.5,
            "R": 4.5,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 70.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.1,
            "WHIP": 1.3,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.9,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 2,
          "totals": {
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            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 9.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 8.0,
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            "BF": 42.0,
            "Pitches": 141.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.5,
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            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.1,
            "WHIP": 1.3,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.9,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.652,
        "predicted_H": 4.093,
        "predicted_BB": 1.625,
        "predicted_SO": 3.858,
        "predicted_HR": 0.695,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.5695,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3343
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6518,
      "form_weight": 0.3482,
      "form_reliability": 0.2857,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.652,
          "final": 4.8342,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.093,
          "final": 4.6842,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.625,
          "final": 2.5212,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.858,
          "final": 3.2988,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "final": 1.5456,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 5.5695,
          "final": 5.5695,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 9,
        "H": 9,
        "BB": 4,
        "SO": 8,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 8.1,
        "WHIP": 1.3,
        "K9": 7.2,
        "HR9": 1.8,
        "games_pitched": 2,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 2,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 2,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-06-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1349824635116734,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 2.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2857,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689818",
      "player_name": "David Sandlin",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2432,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "689818",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "689818",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "689818",
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6475,
              "release_spin_rate": 2354.541,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1009,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.7205,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0516,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0044,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9959,
          "walk_factor": 1.0189,
          "homer_factor": 1.0074,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "689818",
            "espn_id": 4960696,
            "player_name": "David Sandlin",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 711,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 711,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 635,
              "gs_value": 3.0,
              "gs_rank": 254,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 158,
              "era_value": 6.9324,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 317,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 429,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 24.2,
              "ip_rank": 484,
              "h_value": 22.0,
              "h_rank": 497,
              "er_value": 19.0,
              "er_rank": 339,
              "hr_value": 6.0,
              "hr_rank": 273,
              "bb_value": 12.0,
              "bb_rank": 449,
              "k_value": 24.0,
              "k_rank": 460,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.756757,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3783,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.3,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0085,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0033,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9982,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 2 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -6; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 6 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_CHW@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_CHW@STL

home

Michael McGreevy

True

5.2

6.0

-1

2/3

3/3

7/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.9155844155844157,
      "WHIP": 1.2532467532467533,
      "IP": 154.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.5,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5985,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0509,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.94,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 1.1037,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 16.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.318,
      "xwoba": 0.352,
      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
      "whiff_percent": 19.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 112,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 471.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 94.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1429,
            "WHIP": 1.3929,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57143,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03571,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 916.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.3,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6752,
            "WHIP": 1.5478,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63057,
            "H_per_IP": 1.18471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36306,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76433,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13376
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.0,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 151.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 106.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 635.0,
            "Pitches": 2504.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3929,
            "R": 2.5714,
            "H": 5.3929,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 3.7857,
            "HR": 0.7143,
            "BF": 22.6786,
            "Pitches": 89.4286
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9156,
            "WHIP": 1.2532,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43506,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98052,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27273,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68831,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12987
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.064,
        "predicted_H": 5.851,
        "predicted_BB": 1.91,
        "predicted_SO": 4.258,
        "predicted_HR": 0.689,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.004,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4084
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.064,
          "final": 2.6235,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.851,
          "final": 4.2567,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.91,
          "final": 2.3613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.258,
          "final": 5.3932,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.689,
          "final": 0.4037,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.004,
          "final": 5.004,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4084,
          "final": 1.4084,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 33,
        "H": 62,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 5.675159235668789,
        "WHIP": 1.5477707006369423,
        "K9": 6.878980891719744,
        "HR9": 1.2038216560509551,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1440080576748546,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700241",
      "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4899,
        "runs_scored": 680.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": -9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0604,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5638,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6242,
        "offense_index": 1.016,
        "defense_index": 0.9714,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.051
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 76,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5135,
        "runs_scored": 694.0,
        "runs_allowed": 658.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2432,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6892,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4459,
        "offense_index": 1.0439,
        "defense_index": 1.0103,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0287
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0223,
        "offense_edge": 0.016,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0439,
        "defense_strength": -0.0286,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0103,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9965,
        "run_prevention": 1.011,
        "strikeout": 0.9958
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700241",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700241",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 581.0,
            "k_percent": 16.7,
            "bb_percent": 6.6,
            "woba": 0.318,
            "xwoba": 0.352,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9445,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7095,
            "whiff_percent": 19.8,
            "swing_percent": 44.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6544,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4707,
            "regression_edge": -0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7429,
            "bb_edge": 0.65,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1565
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700241",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.05085559343175,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.850426376535,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.05085559343175,
                "release_spin_rate": 2203.850426376535,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0509,
              "release_spin_rate": 2203.8504,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1565,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1182,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5985,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0509,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.94,
          "walk_factor": 0.948,
          "homer_factor": 1.1037,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.034,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "700241",
            "espn_id": 4424141,
            "player_name": "Michael McGreevy",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 112,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 112,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 278,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 33,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 19,
              "era_value": 3.9155,
              "era_rank": 32.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 109,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 154.0,
              "ip_rank": 42,
              "h_value": 151.0,
              "h_rank": 22,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 45,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 40,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 74,
              "k_value": 106.0,
              "k_rank": 91,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.194805,
              "k_per_9_rank": 58.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2532,
              "whip_rank": 34.0,
              "war_value": 1.63,
              "war_rank": 36.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0509,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0509,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.948,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1037,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_CHW@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_CIN@MIL

away

Chase Burns

True

6.0

3.0

-9

-1

3/2

0/3

9/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.730337078651685,
      "WHIP": 1.139325842696629,
      "IP": 148.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.494,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5063,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.957,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0789,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 0.9854,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.283,
      "xwoba": 0.276,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 31.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 11,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 148.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.73,
      "season_WHIP": 1.139,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "695505",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 100.0,
            "Pitches": 405.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3288,
            "WHIP": 1.2329,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36986,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0274,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20548,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.35616,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08219
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 875.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 87.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.375,
            "WHIP": 1.2632,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.375,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86842,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39474,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18421,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05921
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 148.1,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 118.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 176.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 602.0,
            "Pitches": 2446.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.6667,
            "R": 1.8519,
            "H": 4.3704,
            "BB": 1.8889,
            "SO": 6.5185,
            "HR": 0.5556,
            "BF": 22.2963,
            "Pitches": 90.5926
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7303,
            "WHIP": 1.1393,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79551,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34382,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.18652,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.988,
        "predicted_H": 4.866,
        "predicted_BB": 1.619,
        "predicted_SO": 6.316,
        "predicted_HR": 0.462,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4333,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.244
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.988,
          "final": 2.825,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.866,
          "final": 5.3377,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.619,
          "final": 0.9455,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.316,
          "final": 6.1845,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.462,
          "final": 1.1018,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4333,
          "final": 3.4333,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.244,
          "final": 1.244,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.2,
        "ER": 16,
        "H": 41,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 58,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.1532846715328464,
        "WHIP": 1.2043795620437956,
        "K9": 11.430656934306569,
        "HR9": 0.5912408759124087,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8517123907447325,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695505",
      "player_name": "Chase Burns",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 4,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 620.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9865,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1892,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1757,
        "offense_index": 0.9326,
        "defense_index": 0.8679,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 8.3,
          "run_differential": -33.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1845
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.6242,
        "runs_scored": 775.0,
        "runs_allowed": 579.0,
        "run_differential": 196.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3154,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2013,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8859,
        "offense_index": 1.1579,
        "defense_index": 1.1559,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 8.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3366
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.5211,
        "offense_edge": -0.0674,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1579,
        "defense_strength": -0.1321,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1559,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9689,
        "run_prevention": 1.0645,
        "strikeout": 0.9717
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695505",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695505",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 584.0,
            "k_percent": 29.2,
            "bb_percent": 8.5,
            "woba": 0.283,
            "xwoba": 0.276,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.6188,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7667,
            "whiff_percent": 31.6,
            "swing_percent": 49.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4481,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8279,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2512
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695505",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.33268711010393,
              "release_spin_rate": 2641.2658054152125,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.33268711010393,
                "release_spin_rate": 2641.2658054152125,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.3327,
              "release_spin_rate": 2641.2658,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.2512,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.7946,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5063,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.957,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0789,
          "walk_factor": 0.986,
          "homer_factor": 0.9854,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695505",
            "espn_id": 4927516,
            "player_name": "Chase Burns",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 11,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 11,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 297,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 45,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 47,
              "era_value": 2.7303,
              "era_rank": 8.0,
              "w_value": 15.0,
              "w_rank": 3,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 245,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 148.1,
              "ip_rank": 50,
              "h_value": 118.0,
              "h_rank": 86,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 133,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 94,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 40,
              "k_value": 176.0,
              "k_rank": 16,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.678652,
              "k_per_9_rank": 8.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1393,
              "whip_rank": 19.0,
              "war_value": 4.89,
              "war_rank": 10.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.957,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9854,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0789,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_CIN@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_CIN@MIL

home

Robert Gasser

True

5.0

1/3

2/2

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.434306569343066,
      "WHIP": 1.281021897810219,
      "IP": 91.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.059,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0118,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.999,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
      "walk_factor": 0.958,
      "homer_factor": 0.9671,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.1,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.315,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 251,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 111.0,
            "Pitches": 420.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0685,
            "WHIP": 1.4384,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45205,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9863,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45205,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06849,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12329
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 811.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.5,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 81.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6875,
            "WHIP": 1.375,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52083,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97917,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 18,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 91.1,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 88.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 87.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 397.0,
            "Pitches": 1534.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6111,
            "H": 4.8889,
            "BB": 1.6111,
            "SO": 4.8333,
            "HR": 0.7778,
            "BF": 22.0556,
            "Pitches": 85.2222
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4343,
            "WHIP": 1.281,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4927,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9635,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31752,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95255,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15328
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.401,
        "predicted_H": 4.917,
        "predicted_BB": 1.841,
        "predicted_SO": 4.899,
        "predicted_HR": 0.656,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4016,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3768
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4419,
      "form_weight": 0.5581,
      "form_reliability": 0.7826,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.401,
          "final": 1.782,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.917,
          "final": 3.6281,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.841,
          "final": 1.9113,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.899,
          "final": 6.2692,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.656,
          "final": 0.808,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4016,
          "final": 4.4016,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3768,
          "final": 1.3768,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 15,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.6875,
        "WHIP": 1.375,
        "K9": 8.8125,
        "HR9": 1.125,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0285771261461922,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7826,
          "prior_weight": 0.2174
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "688107",
      "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 93,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.6242,
        "runs_scored": 775.0,
        "runs_allowed": 579.0,
        "run_differential": 196.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.3154,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.2013,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8859,
        "offense_index": 1.1579,
        "defense_index": 1.1559,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 8.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 28.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3366
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4662,
        "runs_scored": 620.0,
        "runs_allowed": 766.0,
        "run_differential": -146.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.9865,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1892,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1757,
        "offense_index": 0.9326,
        "defense_index": 0.8679,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 8.3,
          "run_differential": -33.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1845
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.5211,
        "offense_edge": 0.1579,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0674,
        "defense_strength": 0.1559,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1321,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0282,
        "run_prevention": 0.9476,
        "strikeout": 1.021
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "688107",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "688107",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 374.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.1,
            "woba": 0.327,
            "xwoba": 0.315,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.7327,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.957,
            "whiff_percent": 22.3,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.014,
            "command_and_miss": -0.03,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3857,
            "bb_edge": 0.525,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0854
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "688107",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.32156573641782,
              "release_spin_rate": 2276.0341516600556,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.32156573641782,
                "release_spin_rate": 2276.0341516600556,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.3216,
              "release_spin_rate": 2276.0342,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0854,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6099,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0118,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.999,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9846,
          "walk_factor": 0.958,
          "homer_factor": 0.9671,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "688107",
            "espn_id": 4918251,
            "player_name": "Robert Gasser",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 251,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 251,
              "gp_value": 18.0,
              "gp_rank": 418,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 126,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 125,
              "era_value": 4.4343,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 192,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 137,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 91.1,
              "ip_rank": 142,
              "h_value": 88.0,
              "h_rank": 130,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 133,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 109,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 183,
              "k_value": 87.0,
              "k_rank": 140,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.572992,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.281,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.55,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.999,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.958,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9671,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9846,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_CIN@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_CLE@MIN

away

Tanner Bibee

True

5.1

6.2

-3

9/4

3/2

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.21875,
      "WHIP": 1.1953125,
      "IP": 170.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.689,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1809,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0154,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 1.03,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.31,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 8.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 98,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4684,
            "WHIP": 1.557,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60759,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10127,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4557,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72152,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1519
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 247.0,
            "Pitches": 932.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.7,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8382,
            "WHIP": 1.2832,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53757,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9711,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31214,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12139
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 170.2,
            "ER": 80.0,
            "R": 84.0,
            "H": 152.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 133.0,
            "HR": 27.0,
            "BF": 704.0,
            "Pitches": 2683.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6667,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.0667,
            "BB": 1.7333,
            "SO": 4.4333,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 23.4667,
            "Pitches": 89.4333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2188,
            "WHIP": 1.1953,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89062,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30469,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7793,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1582
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.011,
        "predicted_H": 5.536,
        "predicted_BB": 2.057,
        "predicted_SO": 4.313,
        "predicted_HR": 0.786,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9349,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.383
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.011,
          "final": 3.8272,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 5.536,
          "final": 6.9575,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
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          "final": 2.444,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.313,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.786,
          "final": 0.4634,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9349,
          "final": 4.9349,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.383,
          "final": 1.383,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.2,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 56,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 4.838150289017341,
        "WHIP": 1.2832369942196533,
        "K9": 7.179190751445087,
        "HR9": 1.092485549132948,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0432312085161346,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 9.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "after": 5.1,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5034,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": -14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.094,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0671,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1611,
        "offense_index": 0.9054,
        "defense_index": 1.0795,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0086
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.473,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 736.0,
        "run_differential": -55.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.973,
        "offense_index": 1.0244,
        "defense_index": 0.9033,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1034
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0948,
        "offense_edge": -0.0946,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0244,
        "defense_strength": 0.0795,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0967,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0052,
        "run_prevention": 0.9912,
        "strikeout": 1.0009
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "676440",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676440",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 652.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.31,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6033,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1654,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1893,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.45,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1318
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676440",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.49350617866824,
              "release_spin_rate": 2303.8031451019965,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.49350617866824,
                "release_spin_rate": 2303.8031451019965,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4935,
              "release_spin_rate": 2303.8031,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1318,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9411,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1809,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0154,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 1.03,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676440",
            "espn_id": 4345278,
            "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 98,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 98,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 225,
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": 4,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 12,
              "era_value": 4.2187,
              "era_rank": 41.0,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 150,
              "l_value": 15.0,
              "l_rank": 1,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 170.2,
              "ip_rank": 11,
              "h_value": 152.0,
              "h_rank": 20,
              "er_value": 80.0,
              "er_rank": 16,
              "hr_value": 27.0,
              "hr_rank": 7,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 36,
              "k_value": 133.0,
              "k_rank": 52,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.013672,
              "k_per_9_rank": 127.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1953,
              "whip_rank": 26.0,
              "war_value": 1.75,
              "war_rank": 34.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0154,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_CLE@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_CLE@MIN

home

Joe Ryan

True

5.1

4.0

-4

3/7

0/1

3/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6786632390745506,
      "WHIP": 1.1336760925449871,
      "IP": 129.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.403,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2243,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9809,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.032,
      "walk_factor": 0.92,
      "homer_factor": 1.0624,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.8,
      "bb_percent": 5.2,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
      "whiff_percent": 25.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 81,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 34.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 430.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 6.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 86.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1053,
            "WHIP": 1.5395,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.78947,
            "H_per_IP": 1.34211,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19737,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90789,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31579
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 234.0,
            "Pitches": 924.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 92.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5562,
            "WHIP": 1.3313,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50625,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.225,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20625
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 129.2,
            "ER": 53.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 145.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 542.0,
            "Pitches": 2155.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2083,
            "R": 2.75,
            "H": 4.9583,
            "BB": 1.1667,
            "SO": 6.0417,
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            "BF": 22.5833,
            "Pitches": 89.7917
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6787,
            "WHIP": 1.1337,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40874,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91774,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21594,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.11825,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13882
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.103,
        "predicted_H": 5.942,
        "predicted_BB": 1.242,
        "predicted_SO": 5.296,
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        "predicted_ERA": 5.3605,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.379
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.103,
          "final": 3.0594,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.942,
          "final": 4.698,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.242,
          "final": 0.7168,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 5.296,
          "final": 4.3252,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.176,
          "final": 1.1016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3605,
          "final": 5.3605,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.379,
          "final": 1.379,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 59,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 4.55625,
        "WHIP": 1.33125,
        "K9": 10.293750000000001,
        "HR9": 1.8562500000000002,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0127177511461924,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657746",
      "player_name": "Joe Ryan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "before": 5.3333,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.473,
        "runs_scored": 681.0,
        "runs_allowed": 736.0,
        "run_differential": -55.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3716,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.973,
        "offense_index": 1.0244,
        "defense_index": 0.9033,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1034
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.5034,
        "runs_scored": 606.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": -14.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.094,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0671,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1611,
        "offense_index": 0.9054,
        "defense_index": 1.0795,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0086
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0948,
        "offense_edge": 0.0244,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0946,
        "defense_strength": -0.0967,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0795,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9971,
        "run_prevention": 0.9993,
        "strikeout": 1.0047
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657746",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657746",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 501.0,
            "k_percent": 26.8,
            "bb_percent": 5.2,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.6062,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.378,
            "whiff_percent": 25.8,
            "swing_percent": 50.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0992,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5486,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1143,
            "bb_edge": 1.0,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0669
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657746",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.65179155849852,
              "release_spin_rate": 2378.399774086595,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.65179155849852,
                "release_spin_rate": 2378.399774086595,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.6518,
              "release_spin_rate": 2378.3998,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0669,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4778,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2243,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9809,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.032,
          "walk_factor": 0.92,
          "homer_factor": 1.0624,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "657746",
            "espn_id": 42450,
            "player_name": "Joe Ryan",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 81,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 81,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 344,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 75,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 47,
              "era_value": 3.6786,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 109,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 129.2,
              "ip_rank": 85,
              "h_value": 119.0,
              "h_rank": 83,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 100,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 62,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 191,
              "k_value": 145.0,
              "k_rank": 38,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.064267,
              "k_per_9_rank": 12.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1336,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.86,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9809,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9809,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.92,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0624,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_CLE@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_COL@DET

away

Gabriel Hughes

True

4.1

2.0

-7

-1

7/5

2/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.808139534883721,
      "WHIP": 1.377906976744186,
      "IP": 57.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.939,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1733,
      "sample_weight": 0.908,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9595,
      "walk_factor": 0.9855,
      "homer_factor": 0.8976,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.2,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.32,
      "xwoba": 0.292,
      "barrel_percent": 4.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.2,
      "whiff_percent": 20.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 309,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
        "prior_weight": 0.2941
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687312",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 419.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 83.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0845,
            "WHIP": 1.5211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.67606,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14085,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71831,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12676
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 48.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 830.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.331,
            "WHIP": 1.4483,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.70345,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07586,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37241,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.1,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 250.0,
            "Pitches": 977.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0833,
            "R": 3.1667,
            "H": 4.8333,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.4167,
            "BF": 20.8333,
            "Pitches": 81.4167
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8081,
            "WHIP": 1.3779,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64535,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01163,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36628,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83721,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08721
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.929,
        "predicted_H": 4.933,
        "predicted_BB": 1.743,
        "predicted_SO": 3.862,
        "predicted_HR": 0.565,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6492,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4306
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4743,
      "form_weight": 0.5257,
      "form_reliability": 0.7059,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 12.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7059,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 2.929,
          "final": 4.8597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.933,
          "final": 4.4905,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.743,
          "final": 1.8649,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.862,
          "final": 4.4017,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.565,
          "final": 0.297,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6492,
          "final": 5.6492,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4306,
          "final": 1.4306,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 48.1,
        "ER": 34,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 6.3310344827586205,
        "WHIP": 1.4482758620689655,
        "K9": 7.448275862068965,
        "HR9": 0.9310344827586207,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2183848203782817,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 7.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 12.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7059,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 7,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 7,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687312",
      "player_name": "Gabriel Hughes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "COL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 7.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 7.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 147,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.3741,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 846.0,
        "run_differential": -158.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0748,
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        "offense_index": 1.0397,
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          "run_differential": -16.0
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      "opponent": {
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        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 79,
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        "runs_scored": 647.0,
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        "quality_score": 0.0173
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3256,
        "offense_edge": 0.0397,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0223,
        "defense_strength": -0.2178,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1254,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9813,
        "run_prevention": 1.0345,
        "strikeout": 0.992
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687312",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687312",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 227.0,
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            "woba": 0.32,
            "xwoba": 0.292,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 4.5,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.3997,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3828,
            "command_and_miss": -0.39,
            "regression_edge": 0.8,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.5429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7143,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0259
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687312",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.38646950848464,
              "release_spin_rate": 2157.632526821067,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.38646950848464,
                "release_spin_rate": 2157.632526821067,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3865,
              "release_spin_rate": 2157.6325,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0259,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.185,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1733,
          "sample_weight": 0.908,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9595,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.028,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687312",
            "espn_id": 4634930,
            "player_name": "Gabriel Hughes",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 309,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 309,
              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 497,
              "gs_value": 11.0,
              "gs_rank": 163,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 178,
              "era_value": 5.8081,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 535,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 85,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
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              "ip_rank": 255,
              "h_value": 58.0,
              "h_rank": 201,
              "er_value": 37.0,
              "er_rank": 163,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 321,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 282,
              "k_value": 48.0,
              "k_rank": 306,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.5348835,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3779,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.3,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9867,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9867,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9868,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.907,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9632,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 7,
      "predicted_ER": 7,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_COL@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_COL@DET

home

Jackson Jobe

True

4.2

6.1

4/3

2/1

5/8

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 28.1,
      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 4.722,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.982,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0291,
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      "k_percent": 20.8,
      "bb_percent": 9.6,
      "woba": 0.357,
      "xwoba": 0.342,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
      "whiff_percent": 19.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 375,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "695549",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 431.0
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          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 86.2
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            "WHIP": 1.6286,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47143,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
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            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 502.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.6667,
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            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 0.8333,
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            "Pitches": 83.6667
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            "WHIP": 1.4118,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98824,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.91765,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
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        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
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            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
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            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 502.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.6667,
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            "SO": 4.3333,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.4118,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.98824,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.91765,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.559,
        "predicted_H": 4.951,
        "predicted_BB": 1.97,
        "predicted_SO": 4.387,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.9346,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.483
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.951,
          "final": 4.4355,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.97,
          "final": 1.9863,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.387,
          "final": 4.7193,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.842,
          "final": 0.3856,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.9346,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.483,
          "final": 1.483,
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 28.1,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 28,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 26,
        "HR": 5,
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        "HR9": 1.5882352941176472,
        "games_pitched": 6,
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0051367236089102,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "695549",
      "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4626,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 588.0,
        "run_differential": 59.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4014,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
        "offense_index": 0.9777,
        "defense_index": 1.1254,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0173
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.3741,
        "runs_scored": 688.0,
        "runs_allowed": 846.0,
        "run_differential": -158.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0748,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6803,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7551,
        "offense_index": 1.0397,
        "defense_index": 0.7822,
        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3083
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3256,
        "offense_edge": -0.0223,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0397,
        "defense_strength": 0.1254,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2178,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0152,
        "run_prevention": 0.9775,
        "strikeout": 1.0066
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "695549",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "695549",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 103.0,
            "k_percent": 20.8,
            "bb_percent": 9.6,
            "woba": 0.357,
            "xwoba": 0.342,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3603,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8258,
            "whiff_percent": 19.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5357,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3871,
            "regression_edge": 0.4286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.8286,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1497
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "695549",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.52204267498249,
              "release_spin_rate": 2456.0230544362557,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.52204267498249,
                "release_spin_rate": 2456.0230544362557,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.522,
              "release_spin_rate": 2456.0231,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1497,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0692,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1556,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0132,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.982,
          "walk_factor": 1.0036,
          "homer_factor": 1.0291,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.015,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "695549",
            "espn_id": 4872647,
            "player_name": "Jackson Jobe",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 375,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 375,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 613,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 207,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 4.447,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 414,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 330,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 28.1,
              "ip_rank": 450,
              "h_value": 28.0,
              "h_rank": 436,
              "er_value": 14.0,
              "er_rank": 446,
              "hr_value": 5.0,
              "hr_rank": 321,
              "bb_value": 12.0,
              "bb_rank": 447,
              "k_value": 26.0,
              "k_rank": 442,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.258823,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4117,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.15,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0059,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0016,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9919,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_COL@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_HOU@TB

away

Hayden Wesneski

True

5.2

3.0

-8

4/6

3/2

8/2

Last 10 before this game (8 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3503649635036497,
      "WHIP": 1.0291970802919708,
      "IP": 45.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 8,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.708,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0621,
      "sample_weight": 0.624,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9911,
      "walk_factor": 0.9825,
      "homer_factor": 0.9929,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.267,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 168,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.6818181818181818,
        "last_10": 0.3181818181818182
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 8,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0,
            "WHIP": 0.9259,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.62963,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2963,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88889,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03704
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 180.0,
            "Pitches": 675.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.125,
            "R": 2.125,
            "H": 4.125,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.375,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 84.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3504,
            "WHIP": 1.0292,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37226,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72263,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30657,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78832,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06569
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 8,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 180.0,
            "Pitches": 675.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.125,
            "R": 2.125,
            "H": 4.125,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.375,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 84.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3504,
            "WHIP": 1.0292,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37226,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72263,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30657,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78832,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06569
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.246,
        "predicted_H": 4.31,
        "predicted_BB": 1.807,
        "predicted_SO": 4.915,
        "predicted_HR": 0.467,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.657,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1066
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5125,
      "form_weight": 0.4875,
      "form_reliability": 0.6154,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 8.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6154,
        "prior_weight": 0.3846
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.246,
          "final": 3.1449,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.31,
          "final": 4.1511,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.807,
          "final": 2.4184,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.915,
          "final": 6.496,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.467,
          "final": 1.2527,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.657,
          "final": 3.657,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1066,
          "final": 1.1066,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.2,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.350364963503649,
        "WHIP": 1.0291970802919708,
        "K9": 7.094890510948904,
        "HR9": 0.5912408759124087,
        "games_pitched": 8,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 8,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 8,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8725825299176726,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 8.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.6154,
          "prior_weight": 0.3846
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 3,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.5,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 705.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2838,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4797,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7635,
        "offense_index": 0.9951,
        "defense_index": 0.945,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0289
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5986,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 58.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3946,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5238,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1293,
        "offense_index": 1.0049,
        "defense_index": 1.0902,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.167
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1959,
        "offense_edge": -0.0049,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0049,
        "defense_strength": -0.055,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0902,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9903,
        "run_prevention": 1.0161,
        "strikeout": 0.9937
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 156.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 7.8,
            "woba": 0.267,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4463,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0168,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3837,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0836,
            "regression_edge": -0.8571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0997
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.06911274301434,
              "release_spin_rate": 2319.3920687048562,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.06911274301434,
                "release_spin_rate": 2319.3920687048562,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0691,
              "release_spin_rate": 2319.3921,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0997,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.7119,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0621,
          "sample_weight": 0.624,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9911,
          "walk_factor": 0.9825,
          "homer_factor": 0.9929,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.03,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669713",
            "espn_id": 42996,
            "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 168,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 168,
              "gp_value": 8.0,
              "gp_rank": 560,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 190,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 125,
              "era_value": 3.3503,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 149,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 429,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 45.2,
              "ip_rank": 330,
              "h_value": 33.0,
              "h_rank": 392,
              "er_value": 17.0,
              "er_rank": 380,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 446,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 401,
              "k_value": 36.0,
              "k_rank": 378,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.09489,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0291,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.11,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9967,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9967,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9891,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9956,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9944,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 8 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_HOU@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_HOU@TB

home

Freddy Peralta

True

5.2

5.0

-2

-1

1/0

3/3

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.823529411764706,
      "WHIP": 1.3594771241830066,
      "IP": 153.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.276,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0888,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9925,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
      "walk_factor": 0.98,
      "homer_factor": 0.9872,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.2,
      "woba": 0.332,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 26.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 537,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 421.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7303,
            "WHIP": 0.7753,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30337,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60674,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16854,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70787,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10112
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.0,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 44.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 882.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0943,
            "WHIP": 1.2453,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56604,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9434,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30189,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83019,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16981
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 153.0,
            "ER": 82.0,
            "R": 90.0,
            "H": 153.0,
            "BB": 55.0,
            "SO": 142.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 667.0,
            "Pitches": 2683.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8276,
            "R": 3.1034,
            "H": 5.2759,
            "BB": 1.8966,
            "SO": 4.8966,
            "HR": 0.7931,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 92.5172
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8235,
            "WHIP": 1.3595,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53595,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35948,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9281,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15033
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.542,
        "predicted_H": 4.669,
        "predicted_BB": 1.526,
        "predicted_SO": 4.602,
        "predicted_HR": 0.77,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.0578,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0988
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.542,
          "final": 1.9065,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.669,
          "final": 3.1568,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.526,
          "final": 2.1335,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.602,
          "final": 4.3539,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.77,
          "final": 0.4526,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0578,
          "final": 4.0578,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0988,
          "final": 1.0988,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.0,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 44,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.094339622641509,
        "WHIP": 1.2452830188679243,
        "K9": 7.471698113207546,
        "HR9": 1.5283018867924527,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0741818275350805,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 88,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5986,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 58.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3946,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5238,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1293,
        "offense_index": 1.0049,
        "defense_index": 1.0902,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.167
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 663.0,
        "runs_allowed": 705.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2838,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4797,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7635,
        "offense_index": 0.9951,
        "defense_index": 0.945,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0289
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1959,
        "offense_edge": 0.0049,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0049,
        "defense_strength": 0.0902,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.055,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0107,
        "run_prevention": 0.9804,
        "strikeout": 1.0063
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 641.0,
            "k_percent": 21.3,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.332,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.4333,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6551,
            "whiff_percent": 26.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0055,
            "command_and_miss": 0.055,
            "regression_edge": 0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1429,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0354
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.21635303182393,
              "release_spin_rate": 2294.820654554264,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 85,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.21635303182393,
                "release_spin_rate": 2294.820654554264,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2164,
              "release_spin_rate": 2294.8207,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0354,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.253,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0888,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9925,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0017,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 0.9872,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "642547",
            "espn_id": 39825,
            "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 537,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 537,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 242,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 12,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 75,
              "era_value": 4.8235,
              "era_rank": 47.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 65,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 11,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 153.0,
              "ip_rank": 42,
              "h_value": 153.0,
              "h_rank": 16,
              "er_value": 82.0,
              "er_rank": 12,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 22,
              "bb_value": 55.0,
              "bb_rank": 26,
              "k_value": 142.0,
              "k_rank": 41,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.3529415,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.3594,
              "whip_rank": 43.0,
              "war_value": -0.04,
              "war_rank": 49.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9925,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9925,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9872,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0017,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_HOU@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_KC@BOS

away

Noah Cameron

True

6.0

-3

3/4

5/1

3/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.929313929313929,
      "WHIP": 1.2037422037422036,
      "IP": 160.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.679,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0237,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0069,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.0061,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.6,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 76,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 118.0,
            "Pitches": 466.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 93.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.7419,
            "WHIP": 0.8387,
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "IP": 64.2,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.88565,
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      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 2.7663,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 0.9905,
          "final": 0.9905,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "H": 38,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.7707243555276355,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 5.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702070",
      "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.443,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -91.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6107,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2483,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8591,
        "offense_index": 0.9458,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1582
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 149,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5436,
        "runs_scored": 659.0,
        "runs_allowed": 574.0,
        "run_differential": 85.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5705,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4228,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8523,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1419
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3001,
        "offense_edge": -0.0542,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0154,
        "defense_strength": -0.0756,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.166,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9863,
        "run_prevention": 1.0201,
        "strikeout": 0.9922
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702070",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702070",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 642.0,
            "k_percent": 21.7,
            "bb_percent": 7.6,
            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7428,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9705,
            "whiff_percent": 26.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.055,
            "command_and_miss": 0.1357,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2143,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.173
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702070",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.75739056878514,
              "release_spin_rate": 2191.8212371395343,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.75739056878514,
                "release_spin_rate": 2191.8212371395343,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.7574,
              "release_spin_rate": 2191.8212,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.173,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.2356,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0237,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0069,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "702070",
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            "player_name": "Noah Cameron",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 76,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 76,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 278,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 45,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
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              "era_value": 3.9293,
              "era_rank": 33.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 44,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 64,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "h_value": 142.0,
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              "hr_value": 16.0,
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              "k_value": 145.0,
              "k_rank": 38,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.139293,
              "k_per_9_rank": 31.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2037,
              "whip_rank": 29.0,
              "war_value": 1.98,
              "war_rank": 31.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0061,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0069,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 5,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_KC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_KC@BOS

home

Payton Tolle

True

6.0

-1

5/4

0/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.153284671532847,
      "WHIP": 1.0802919708029197,
      "IP": 137.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.708,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
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                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8721,
              "release_spin_rate": 2259.8317,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1694,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.2103,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.7763,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.934,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0543,
          "walk_factor": 0.95,
          "homer_factor": 0.9265,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.03,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "801139",
            "espn_id": 4966140,
            "player_name": "Payton Tolle",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 52,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 52,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 344,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 75,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 37,
              "era_value": 3.1532,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 44,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 114,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 137.0,
              "ip_rank": 74,
              "h_value": 111.0,
              "h_rank": 103,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 120,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 94,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 112,
              "k_value": 159.0,
              "k_rank": 28,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.445255,
              "k_per_9_rank": 10.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0802,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.57,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.934,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.95,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9265,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0543,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_KC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_LAA@WAS

away

Grayson Rodriguez

True

4.2

5.1

-1

7/7

1/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.281632653061224,
      "WHIP": 1.5673469387755101,
      "IP": 81.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.804,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.628,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0534,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 1.1304,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.368,
      "xwoba": 0.36,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 849,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 464.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 92.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3875,
            "WHIP": 1.4625,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1875
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.2,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 51.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 910.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.1,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5066,
            "WHIP": 1.4605,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61184,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04605,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41447,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00658,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19737
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 81.2,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 91.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 370.0,
            "Pitches": 1483.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.3529,
            "R": 3.6471,
            "H": 5.3529,
            "BB": 2.1765,
            "SO": 4.4118,
            "HR": 0.8235,
            "BF": 21.7647,
            "Pitches": 87.2353
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.2816,
            "WHIP": 1.5673,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.69796,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45306,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91837,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17143
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.822,
        "predicted_H": 5.273,
        "predicted_BB": 2.075,
        "predicted_SO": 4.832,
        "predicted_HR": 0.903,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0152,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.451
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.822,
          "final": 2.4554,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.273,
          "final": 6.0433,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.075,
          "final": 1.5955,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.832,
          "final": 5.353,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.903,
          "final": 0.9463,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0152,
          "final": 5.0152,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.451,
          "final": 1.451,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.2,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 51,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 5.50657894736842,
        "WHIP": 1.4605263157894735,
        "K9": 9.05921052631579,
        "HR9": 1.776315789473684,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.125939833989897,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "680570",
      "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.381,
        "runs_scored": 594.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5034,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0408,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5442,
        "offense_index": 0.8976,
        "defense_index": 0.9906,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1977
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4564,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
        "runs_allowed": 759.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0067,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1007,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.094,
        "offense_index": 1.133,
        "defense_index": 0.8837,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1062
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0915,
        "offense_edge": -0.1024,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.133,
        "defense_strength": -0.0094,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1163,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9907,
        "run_prevention": 1.0268,
        "strikeout": 0.9866
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680570",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "680570",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 336.0,
            "k_percent": 20.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.0,
            "woba": 0.368,
            "xwoba": 0.36,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 46.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.9547,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 95.0066,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -1.0648,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2143,
            "regression_edge": 0.2286,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.1429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1857,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0147
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680570",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.11130405957836,
              "release_spin_rate": 2182.2281026688293,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.11130405957836,
                "release_spin_rate": 2182.2281026688293,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.1113,
              "release_spin_rate": 2182.2281,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0147,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1049,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.628,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0534,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9829,
          "walk_factor": 1.016,
          "homer_factor": 1.1304,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.008,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "680570",
            "espn_id": 41196,
            "player_name": "Grayson Rodriguez",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 849,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 849,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 437,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 124,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 157,
              "era_value": 6.2816,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 190,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 85,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 81.2,
              "ip_rank": 159,
              "h_value": 91.0,
              "h_rank": 127,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 77,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 109,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 110,
              "k_value": 75.0,
              "k_rank": 164,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.265306,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.5673,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.19,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0534,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0534,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1304,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9829,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_LAA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_LAA@WAS

home

Riley Cornelio

True

4.0

2.0

-6

-2

5/1

3/1

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 5.259740259740259,
      "WHIP": 1.5974025974025974,
      "IP": 25.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0029,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9998,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0265,
      "walk_factor": 1.0801,
      "homer_factor": 1.0391,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.3,
      "bb_percent": 18.1,
      "woba": 0.312,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 8.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 48.5,
      "whiff_percent": 34.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 769,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.179,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5088,
        "prior_weight": 0.4912
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683000",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 9.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 38.0,
            "Pitches": 166.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.6,
            "Pitches": 33.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 1.0714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07143,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.1,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 13.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 76.0,
            "Pitches": 334.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.9,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 1.3,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 2.3,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.6,
            "Pitches": 33.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6731,
            "WHIP": 1.4423,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51923,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32692,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11538
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 493.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.1538,
            "R": 1.5385,
            "H": 1.5385,
            "BB": 1.6154,
            "SO": 2.0769,
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            "BF": 8.9231,
            "Pitches": 37.9231
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2597,
            "WHIP": 1.5974,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77922,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05195,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07792
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.616,
        "predicted_H": 2.564,
        "predicted_BB": 1.742,
        "predicted_SO": 3.416,
        "predicted_HR": 0.405,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4756,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3245
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5575,
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      "form_reliability": 0.5088,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 5.179,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5088,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.616,
          "final": 1.8301,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 2.564,
          "final": 3.9221,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.742,
          "final": 2.4434,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.416,
          "final": 3.7416,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.405,
          "final": 0.7367,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4756,
          "final": 4.4756,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3245,
          "final": 1.3245,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 17.1,
        "ER": 9,
        "H": 13,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 2,
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        "K9": 11.942307692307693,
        "HR9": 1.0384615384615385,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0180395503295179,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 5.179,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5088,
          "prior_weight": 0.4912
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683000",
      "player_name": "Riley Cornelio",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.6667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1429,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.6667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1429,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4564,
        "runs_scored": 760.0,
        "runs_allowed": 759.0,
        "run_differential": 1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0067,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1007,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.094,
        "offense_index": 1.133,
        "defense_index": 0.8837,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1062
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 56,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.381,
        "runs_scored": 594.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5034,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0408,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5442,
        "offense_index": 0.8976,
        "defense_index": 0.9906,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.1,
          "run_differential": 8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1977
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0915,
        "offense_edge": 0.133,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1024,
        "defense_strength": -0.1163,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0094,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0043,
        "run_prevention": 0.9907,
        "strikeout": 1.0109
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "683000",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683000",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 105.0,
            "k_percent": 23.3,
            "bb_percent": 18.1,
            "woba": 0.312,
            "xwoba": 0.307,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 48.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3399,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4218,
            "whiff_percent": 34.0,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0564,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0886,
            "regression_edge": 0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.5,
            "whiff_edge": 1.2857,
            "bb_edge": -2.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0099
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683000",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 32,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 32,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.02548337497221,
              "release_spin_rate": 2315.443447421638,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 32,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.02548337497221,
                "release_spin_rate": 2315.443447421638,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0255,
              "release_spin_rate": 2315.4434,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0099,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0706,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0029,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9998,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0265,
          "walk_factor": 1.0801,
          "homer_factor": 1.0391,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683000",
            "espn_id": 4622146,
            "player_name": "Riley Cornelio",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 769,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 769,
              "gp_value": 13.0,
              "gp_rank": 488,
              "gs_value": 1.0,
              "gs_rank": 297,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 5.2597,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 316,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 330,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 25.2,
              "ip_rank": 474,
              "h_value": 20.0,
              "h_rank": 518,
              "er_value": 15.0,
              "er_rank": 426,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 528,
              "bb_value": 21.0,
              "bb_rank": 282,
              "k_value": 27.0,
              "k_rank": 437,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.467532,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24.0,
              "whip_value": 1.5974,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.47,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9999,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9999,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.036,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0176,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0119,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_LAA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_LAD@MIA

away

Emmet Sheehan

True

4.2

6.0

-2

1/2

1/1

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.079207920792079,
      "WHIP": 1.2574257425742574,
      "IP": 101.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.81,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1698,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0669,
      "walk_factor": 0.96,
      "homer_factor": 1.0639,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 27.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.5,
      "whiff_percent": 31.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 444,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "686218",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 415.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.625,
            "WHIP": 1.2083,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95833,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.33333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.0,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 56.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 194.0,
            "Pitches": 811.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 81.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8605,
            "WHIP": 1.3953,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65116,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39535,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.30233,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23256
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 101.0,
            "ER": 57.0,
            "R": 58.0,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.16832,
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 5.3928,
          "final": 5.3928,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.295,
          "final": 1.295,
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1641225910278408,
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "686218",
      "player_name": "Emmet Sheehan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 90,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6122,
        "runs_scored": 734.0,
        "runs_allowed": 561.0,
        "run_differential": 173.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1769,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9932,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8163,
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        "current_streak": "W8",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
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          "run_differential": 20.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 148,
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        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4865,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 653.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0203,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4324,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4122,
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        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.079
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4232,
        "offense_edge": 0.1092,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0154,
        "defense_strength": 0.1796,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0229,
        "run_prevention": 0.9584,
        "strikeout": 1.0139
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "686218",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "686218",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.3448,
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            "whiff_percent": 31.4,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 0.9714,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9143,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0596
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "686218",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.78381887982496,
              "release_spin_rate": 2261.1723939672893,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.7838,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0596,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1698,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9856,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.034,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "686218",
            "espn_id": 4417806,
            "player_name": "Emmet Sheehan",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 444,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 444,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
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              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 149,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 62,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "h_value": 96.0,
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              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 77,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
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              "k_rank": 75,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.514852,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2574,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.04,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9856,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0639,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0669,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 16,
      "Pitches": 66,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_LAD@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_LAD@MIA

home

Eury Pérez

True

5.0

4/4

2/2

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.9401913875598082,
      "WHIP": 1.2416267942583732,
      "IP": 139.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.359,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0541,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9954,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0434,
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      "homer_factor": 1.0634,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 25.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.312,
      "barrel_percent": 10.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 28.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 148,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
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          "per_game": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.07656,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 5.1698,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 9.22360248447205,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9765359233982003,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "player_id": "691587",
      "player_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4865,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0203,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 734.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1769,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9932,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0154,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 0.9786
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691587",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691587",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.312,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.9338,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.3165,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.1681
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691587",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.85070506168456,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 95,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8507,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 1.2007,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.0541,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Eury Perez",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "era_value": 3.9401,
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              "l_rank": 11,
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              "k_value": 150.0,
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              "k_per_9_value": 9.688995,
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              "whip_value": 1.2416,
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9954,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 83,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_LAD@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_NYM@NYY

away

Christian Scott

True

5.0

6.0

4/3

4/2

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.8053691275167787,
      "WHIP": 1.2885906040268458,
      "IP": 99.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.73,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2267,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9807,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0411,
      "walk_factor": 1.02,
      "homer_factor": 0.9597,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.303,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 95,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "681035",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 442.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 88.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.76,
            "WHIP": 1.36,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 894.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1126,
            "WHIP": 1.2318,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45695,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8543,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37748,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19205,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0596
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 99.1,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 43.0,
            "H": 84.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 431.0,
            "Pitches": 1803.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0476,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0952,
            "SO": 5.7143,
            "HR": 0.4762,
            "BF": 20.5238,
            "Pitches": 85.8571
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8054,
            "WHIP": 1.2886,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42282,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84564,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20805,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10067
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.606,
        "predicted_H": 4.377,
        "predicted_BB": 2.097,
        "predicted_SO": 5.541,
        "predicted_HR": 0.518,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.742,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.309
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.606,
          "final": 2.3447,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.377,
          "final": 4.2144,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.097,
          "final": 2.9177,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.541,
          "final": 4.8764,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.518,
          "final": 1.1571,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.742,
          "final": 4.742,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.309,
          "final": 1.309,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.112582781456954,
        "WHIP": 1.2317880794701987,
        "K9": 10.728476821192054,
        "HR9": 0.5364238410596027,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9633968094168751,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "681035",
      "player_name": "Christian Scott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 147,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4626,
        "runs_scored": 631.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2857,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2925,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5782,
        "offense_index": 0.9535,
        "defense_index": 0.9833,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0033
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5782,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
        "runs_allowed": 540.0,
        "run_differential": 133.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9048,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5782,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6735,
        "offense_index": 1.017,
        "defense_index": 1.2255,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 16.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.247
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2437,
        "offense_edge": -0.0465,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.017,
        "defense_strength": -0.0167,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2255,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9891,
        "run_prevention": 1.0166,
        "strikeout": 0.9913
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "681035",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "681035",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 412.0,
            "k_percent": 27.8,
            "bb_percent": 10.2,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.303,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.9098,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.0511,
            "whiff_percent": 26.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2318,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3929,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2,
            "bb_edge": -0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0053
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "681035",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.94413526757182,
              "release_spin_rate": 2352.398884615273,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.94413526757182,
                "release_spin_rate": 2352.398884615273,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9441,
              "release_spin_rate": 2352.3989,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0053,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0381,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2267,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9807,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0411,
          "walk_factor": 1.02,
          "homer_factor": 0.9597,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "681035",
            "espn_id": 4414215,
            "player_name": "Christian Scott",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 95,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 95,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 380,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 94,
              "qs_value": 2.0,
              "qs_rank": 157,
              "era_value": 3.8053,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 190,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 189,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 99.1,
              "ip_rank": 127,
              "h_value": 84.0,
              "h_rank": 140,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 146,
              "hr_value": 10.0,
              "hr_rank": 162,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 67,
              "k_value": 120.0,
              "k_rank": 71,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.872483,
              "k_per_9_rank": 15.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2885,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.72,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9807,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9807,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.02,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9597,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0411,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_NYM@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_NYM@NYY

home

Cam Schlittler

True

6.1

6.0

-1

6/1

1/2

7/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.0149253731343286,
      "WHIP": 0.9179104477611941,
      "IP": 178.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.956,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6606,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9438,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.9845,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.4,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.246,
      "xwoba": 0.265,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
      "whiff_percent": 28.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 490.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 98.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.125,
            "WHIP": 0.875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.125,
            "H_per_IP": 0.53125,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 83.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 8.3,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 95.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.95,
            "WHIP": 0.8667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.58333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.38333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06667
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 178.2,
            "ER": 40.0,
            "R": 47.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 42.0,
            "SO": 220.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 701.0,
            "Pitches": 2779.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3333,
            "R": 1.5667,
            "H": 4.0667,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.3333,
            "HR": 0.5333,
            "BF": 23.3667,
            "Pitches": 92.6333
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0149,
            "WHIP": 0.9179,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22388,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68284,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23507,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23134,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08955
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.38,
        "predicted_H": 3.928,
        "predicted_BB": 1.92,
        "predicted_SO": 7.526,
        "predicted_HR": 0.496,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.0116,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9468
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.38,
          "final": 1.6344,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.928,
          "final": 4.7783,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.92,
          "final": 1.5425,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 7.526,
          "final": 6.4894,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.496,
          "final": 0.2925,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.0116,
          "final": 2.0116,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9468,
          "final": 0.9468,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 35,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 83,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 1.95,
        "WHIP": 0.8666666666666667,
        "K9": 12.45,
        "HR9": 0.6,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7109782111828795,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "693645",
      "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYY",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.5,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "wins": 85,
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        "win_pct": 0.5782,
        "runs_scored": 673.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9048,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5782,
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        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.247
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      "opponent": {
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          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0033
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2437,
        "offense_edge": 0.017,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0465,
        "defense_strength": 0.2255,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0167,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0184,
        "run_prevention": 0.9578,
        "strikeout": 1.011
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "693645",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "693645",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 646.0,
            "k_percent": 31.4,
            "bb_percent": 6.0,
            "woba": 0.246,
            "xwoba": 0.265,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7421,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8635,
            "whiff_percent": 28.9,
            "swing_percent": 52.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7913,
            "command_and_miss": 0.9593,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "693645",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 98,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 95.86048713350452,
              "release_spin_rate": 2509.53670007982,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 98,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 95.86048713350452,
                "release_spin_rate": 2509.53670007982,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 95.8605,
              "release_spin_rate": 2509.5367,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6606,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9438,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.076,
          "walk_factor": 0.936,
          "homer_factor": 0.9845,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_id": 5134581,
            "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 2,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 2,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 222,
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": 4,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 6,
              "era_value": 2.0149,
              "era_rank": 2.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 12,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 113,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 178.2,
              "ip_rank": 4,
              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 75,
              "er_value": 40.0,
              "er_rank": 151,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 85,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 73,
              "k_value": 220.0,
              "k_rank": 5,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.082089,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33.0,
              "whip_value": 0.9179,
              "whip_rank": 4.0,
              "war_value": 6.6,
              "war_rank": 2.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9438,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9438,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9845,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_NYM@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_PHI@ATL

away

Andrew Painter

True

5.1

5.0

-1

5/6

3/4

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.709969788519638,
      "WHIP": 1.4138972809667674,
      "IP": 110.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.017,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1049,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0089,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0255,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.343,
      "xwoba": 0.327,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 226,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 482.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2,
            "WHIP": 1.1,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26667,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93333,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13333
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 854.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1592,
            "WHIP": 1.242,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57325,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85987,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38217,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15287
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 110.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 117.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 97.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 483.0,
            "Pitches": 1861.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1818,
            "R": 3.1818,
            "H": 5.3182,
            "BB": 1.7727,
            "SO": 4.4091,
            "HR": 0.8636,
            "BF": 21.9545,
            "Pitches": 84.5909
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.71,
            "WHIP": 1.4139,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.63444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06042,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35347,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87915,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17221
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.967,
        "predicted_H": 5.047,
        "predicted_BB": 1.86,
        "predicted_SO": 5.207,
        "predicted_HR": 0.824,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7807,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2367
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.967,
          "final": 2.5529,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.047,
          "final": 5.0269,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.86,
          "final": 2.3482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.207,
          "final": 5.1184,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.824,
          "final": 0.8994,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7807,
          "final": 4.7807,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2367,
          "final": 1.2367,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 50,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.159235668789809,
        "WHIP": 1.2420382165605097,
        "K9": 8.598726114649683,
        "HR9": 1.3757961783439492,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.081401512669079,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2432,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4865,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2432,
        "offense_index": 0.9966,
        "defense_index": 1.0609,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0407
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5878,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 566.0,
        "run_differential": 111.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5743,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8243,
        "offense_index": 1.0161,
        "defense_index": 1.1771,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1663
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1256,
        "offense_edge": -0.0034,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0161,
        "defense_strength": 0.0609,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1771,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9962,
        "run_prevention": 1.0028,
        "strikeout": 0.9949
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691725",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691725",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 452.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.343,
            "xwoba": 0.327,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6452,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6961,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2293,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0921,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0217
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691725",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.23617876908254,
              "release_spin_rate": 2305.8805049886614,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.23617876908254,
                "release_spin_rate": 2305.8805049886614,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2362,
              "release_spin_rate": 2305.8805,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0217,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1549,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1049,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0089,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9863,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0255,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "691725",
            "espn_id": 4872683,
            "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 226,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 226,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 371,
              "gs_value": 20.0,
              "gs_rank": 100,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 92,
              "era_value": 5.7099,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 246,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 110.1,
              "ip_rank": 111,
              "h_value": 117.0,
              "h_rank": 85,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 32,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 49,
              "bb_value": 39.0,
              "bb_rank": 94,
              "k_value": 97.0,
              "k_rank": 114,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.912387,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4138,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.67,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0089,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0255,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9863,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_PHI@ATL

home

Grant Holmes

True

5.0

4.0

-3

-1

3/5

3/2

5/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6085918854415278,
      "WHIP": 1.3174224343675418,
      "IP": 139.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.845,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3579,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0304,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
      "walk_factor": 1.012,
      "homer_factor": 1.0815,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.8,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.333,
      "barrel_percent": 8.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 27.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 53,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 139.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.609,
      "season_WHIP": 1.317,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 358.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 71.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4225,
            "WHIP": 1.1408,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76056,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67606,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 207.0,
            "Pitches": 741.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.7,
            "Pitches": 74.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2185,
            "WHIP": 1.2318,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35762,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87417,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35762,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.6755,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07947
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 139.2,
            "ER": 56.0,
            "R": 58.0,
            "H": 124.0,
            "BB": 60.0,
            "SO": 112.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 596.0,
            "Pitches": 2225.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.931,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.2759,
            "BB": 2.069,
            "SO": 3.8621,
            "HR": 0.6552,
            "BF": 20.5517,
            "Pitches": 76.7241
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6086,
            "WHIP": 1.3174,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40095,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88783,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42959,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80191,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13604
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.903,
        "predicted_H": 4.08,
        "predicted_BB": 1.832,
        "predicted_SO": 3.546,
        "predicted_HR": 0.407,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5562,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2279
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.903,
          "final": 2.3551,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.08,
          "final": 3.6349,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.832,
          "final": 2.3134,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.546,
          "final": 4.1453,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.407,
          "final": 1.0636,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5562,
          "final": 3.5562,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2279,
          "final": 1.2279,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.218543046357616,
        "WHIP": 1.2317880794701985,
        "K9": 6.079470198675496,
        "HR9": 0.7152317880794702,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8628173392181995,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656550",
      "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5878,
        "runs_scored": 677.0,
        "runs_allowed": 566.0,
        "run_differential": 111.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5743,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8243,
        "offense_index": 1.0161,
        "defense_index": 1.1771,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1663
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.5541,
        "runs_scored": 664.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2432,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4865,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2432,
        "offense_index": 0.9966,
        "defense_index": 1.0609,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0407
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1256,
        "offense_edge": 0.0161,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0034,
        "defense_strength": 0.1771,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0609,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0105,
        "run_prevention": 0.9755,
        "strikeout": 1.004
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656550",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656550",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 559.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.8,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.333,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 82.0612,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.8086,
            "whiff_percent": 27.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 130.5,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.3165,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6397,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4593,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1043,
            "regression_edge": -0.7143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3571,
            "bb_edge": -0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0269
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656550",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.36784966366665,
              "release_spin_rate": 2454.2393247591494,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.36784966366665,
                "release_spin_rate": 2454.2393247591494,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3678,
              "release_spin_rate": 2454.2393,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0269,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1924,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3579,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0304,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9966,
          "walk_factor": 1.012,
          "homer_factor": 1.0815,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.025,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656550",
            "espn_id": 33840,
            "player_name": "Grant Holmes",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 53,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 53,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 270,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 43,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 65,
              "era_value": 3.4648,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 44,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 137,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 250,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 353,
              "ip_value": 137.2,
              "ip_rank": 67,
              "h_value": 120.0,
              "h_rank": 78,
              "er_value": 53.0,
              "er_rank": 99,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 49,
              "bb_value": 57.0,
              "bb_rank": 20,
              "k_value": 110.0,
              "k_rank": 85,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.191283,
              "k_per_9_rank": 34.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2857,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.53,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0304,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0304,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0815,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_PIT@CHC

away

Bubba Chandler

True

5.0

5.1

4/5

1/4

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.246478873239437,
      "WHIP": 1.3380281690140845,
      "IP": 142.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.062,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0018,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9998,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
      "walk_factor": 1.048,
      "homer_factor": 0.9763,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.0,
      "bb_percent": 11.6,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.309,
      "barrel_percent": 5.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 101,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 441.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 88.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2078,
            "WHIP": 1.1688,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46753,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35065,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01299,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 894.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2675,
            "WHIP": 1.1656,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36306,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80255,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36306,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95541,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05732
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 142.0,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 71.0,
            "SO": 129.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 613.0,
            "Pitches": 2429.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.3929,
            "R": 2.75,
            "H": 4.25,
            "BB": 2.5357,
            "SO": 4.6071,
            "HR": 0.4643,
            "BF": 21.8929,
            "Pitches": 86.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2465,
            "WHIP": 1.338,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47183,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83803,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90845,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09155
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.259,
        "predicted_H": 4.288,
        "predicted_BB": 1.952,
        "predicted_SO": 4.931,
        "predicted_HR": 0.507,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.9881,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2237
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.259,
          "final": 1.7378,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.288,
          "final": 4.1688,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.952,
          "final": 1.5579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.931,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.507,
          "final": 0.2971,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.9881,
          "final": 3.9881,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2237,
          "final": 1.2237,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
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        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 19,
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        "BB": 19,
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        "HR": 3,
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        "WHIP": 1.1656050955414012,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8635940449360012,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 714.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1678,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7919,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6242,
        "offense_index": 1.0668,
        "defense_index": 0.9714,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0527
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.557,
        "runs_scored": 796.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": 139.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4094,
        "offense_index": 1.1893,
        "defense_index": 1.0187,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1627
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.11,
        "offense_edge": 0.0668,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1893,
        "defense_strength": -0.0286,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0187,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9872,
        "run_prevention": 1.0386,
        "strikeout": 0.9816
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696149",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696149",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 590.0,
            "k_percent": 21.0,
            "bb_percent": 11.6,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.309,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4253,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9178,
            "whiff_percent": 22.5,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1221,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3093,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3571,
            "bb_edge": -0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696149",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.85660265030191,
              "release_spin_rate": 2338.4045388297577,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.85660265030191,
                "release_spin_rate": 2338.4045388297577,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.8566,
              "release_spin_rate": 2338.4045,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0018,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9998,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.98,
          "walk_factor": 1.048,
          "homer_factor": 0.9763,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696149",
            "espn_id": 4683325,
            "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 101,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 101,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 278,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 45,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 110,
              "era_value": 4.2464,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 87,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 142.0,
              "ip_rank": 59,
              "h_value": 119.0,
              "h_rank": 83,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 45,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 127,
              "bb_value": 71.0,
              "bb_rank": 5,
              "k_value": 129.0,
              "k_rank": 58,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.176057,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26.0,
              "whip_value": 1.338,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.74,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9998,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.048,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9763,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_PIT@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_PIT@CHC

home

Matthew Boyd

True

6.0

5.1

-2

5/7

3/2

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.033536585365854,
      "WHIP": 1.2164634146341464,
      "IP": 109.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.754,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2714,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0231,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.0532,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.1,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.312,
      "xwoba": 0.331,
      "barrel_percent": 9.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 204,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 474.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 94.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4607,
            "WHIP": 1.2135,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.60674,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8764,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67416,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 63.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 254.0,
            "Pitches": 941.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 94.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6947,
            "WHIP": 1.1684,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41053,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85263,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31579,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61579,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15789
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 109.1,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 100.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 86.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 450.0,
            "Pitches": 1708.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5789,
            "R": 2.7368,
            "H": 5.2632,
            "BB": 1.7368,
            "SO": 4.5263,
            "HR": 0.7895,
            "BF": 23.6842,
            "Pitches": 89.8947
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0335,
            "WHIP": 1.2165,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44817,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91463,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30183,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78659,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1372
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.058,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.009,
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        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2295
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.058,
          "final": 3.0326,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.417,
          "final": 5.2344,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.009,
          "final": 2.4431,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.416,
          "final": 3.7958,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.016,
          "final": 0.571,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5572,
          "final": 4.5572,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2295,
          "final": 1.2295,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 63.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 3.6947368421052635,
        "WHIP": 1.168421052631579,
        "K9": 5.542105263157895,
        "HR9": 1.4210526315789476,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.911726797198824,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "571510",
      "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.557,
        "runs_scored": 796.0,
        "runs_allowed": 657.0,
        "run_differential": 139.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4094,
        "offense_index": 1.1893,
        "defense_index": 1.0187,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1627
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 714.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": 25.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1678,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7919,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6242,
        "offense_index": 1.0668,
        "defense_index": 0.9714,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0527
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.11,
        "offense_edge": 0.1893,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0668,
        "defense_strength": 0.0187,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0286,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0023,
        "run_prevention": 1.0033,
        "strikeout": 0.998
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "571510",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "571510",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 423.0,
            "k_percent": 19.1,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.312,
            "xwoba": 0.331,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3505,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0397,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 48.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2471,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2214,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2643
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "571510",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.12716924490148,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.8215824003037,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.12716924490148,
                "release_spin_rate": 2218.8215824003037,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.1272,
              "release_spin_rate": 2218.8216,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2643,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8876,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2714,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0231,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
          "walk_factor": 0.962,
          "homer_factor": 1.0532,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "571510",
            "espn_id": 34401,
            "player_name": "Matthew Boyd",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 204,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 204,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 407,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 108,
              "qs_value": 8.0,
              "qs_rank": 77,
              "era_value": 4.0335,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 67,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 190,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 109.1,
              "ip_rank": 114,
              "h_value": 100.0,
              "h_rank": 120,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 110,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 94,
              "bb_value": 33.0,
              "bb_rank": 143,
              "k_value": 86.0,
              "k_rank": 143,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.079268,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2164,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.84,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0231,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0231,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0532,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9686,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_PIT@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_SD@SF

away

Nick Pivetta

True

5.0

4.0

-3

-2

3/5

2/0

7/5

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4285714285714284,
      "WHIP": 0.9523809523809523,
      "IP": 21.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.2,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3728,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9683,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0177,
      "walk_factor": 0.982,
      "homer_factor": 0.9672,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 31.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.2,
      "woba": 0.223,
      "xwoba": 0.242,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 269,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 346.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 16.6,
            "Pitches": 69.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4286,
            "WHIP": 0.9524,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2381,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 346.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 16.6,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4286,
            "WHIP": 0.9524,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2381,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
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            "BF": 83.0,
            "Pitches": 346.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
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            "H": 2.8,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4286,
            "WHIP": 0.9524,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38095,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.2381,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
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        "predicted_H": 3.562,
        "predicted_BB": 1.423,
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        "predicted_HR": 0.318,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.993,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1502
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.923,
          "final": 3.0887,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.562,
          "final": 3.2466,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.423,
          "final": 1.7468,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.72,
          "final": 5.9996,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.318,
          "final": 0.7008,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.993,
          "final": 3.993,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1502,
          "final": 1.1502,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 21.0,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 14,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 26,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 3.4285714285714284,
        "WHIP": 0.9523809523809523,
        "K9": 11.142857142857142,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9146605379449766,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "601713",
      "player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.6667,
              "percent_delta": 0.1538,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
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              "delta": 0.6667,
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              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.6667,
            "percent_delta": 0.1539,
            "direction": "boost",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SD",
        "games": 148,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5405,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": 20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1351,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.277,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1419,
        "offense_index": 0.9487,
        "defense_index": 1.0884,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1209
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4161,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5034,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2148,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7181,
        "offense_index": 0.9349,
        "defense_index": 0.9555,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1327
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2536,
        "offense_edge": -0.0513,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0651,
        "defense_strength": 0.0884,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0445,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0154,
        "run_prevention": 0.9681,
        "strikeout": 1.0128
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "601713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "601713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 66.0,
            "k_percent": 31.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.2,
            "woba": 0.223,
            "xwoba": 0.242,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.3027,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2375,
            "whiff_percent": 22.6,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.309,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5779,
            "regression_edge": -0.5429,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.9714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3429,
            "bb_edge": 0.5,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0076
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "601713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.7106880975281,
              "release_spin_rate": 2436.819590096514,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 70,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.7106880975281,
                "release_spin_rate": 2436.819590096514,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7107,
              "release_spin_rate": 2436.8196,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0076,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0542,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3728,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9683,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0177,
          "walk_factor": 0.982,
          "homer_factor": 0.9672,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.019,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "601713",
            "espn_id": 36071,
            "player_name": "Nick Pivetta",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 269,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 269,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 635,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 221,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 3.4285,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 317,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 332,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 21.0,
              "ip_rank": 507,
              "h_value": 14.0,
              "h_rank": 587,
              "er_value": 8.0,
              "er_rank": 588,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 746,
              "bb_value": 6.0,
              "bb_rank": 588,
              "k_value": 26.0,
              "k_rank": 444,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.142858,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23.0,
              "whip_value": 0.9523,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.41,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9857,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9857,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9919,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9852,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_SD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_SD@SF

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Logan Webb

True

5.1

5.0

-1

3/8

2/1

5/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.104925053533191,
      "WHIP": 1.1498929336188437,
      "IP": 155.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.987,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0006,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 0.979,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.7,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.311,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.9,
      "whiff_percent": 21.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 109,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "657277",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 411.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 82.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.5441,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13235
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 28.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 47.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 902.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 4.7,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 90.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5542,
            "WHIP": 1.1386,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88554,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25301,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8494,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07229
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.2,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 139.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 127.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 644.0,
            "Pitches": 2396.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7308,
            "R": 2.8462,
            "H": 5.3462,
            "BB": 1.5385,
            "SO": 4.8846,
            "HR": 0.4615,
            "BF": 24.7692,
            "Pitches": 92.1538
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1049,
            "WHIP": 1.1499,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4561,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89293,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25696,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81585,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07709
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 3.209,
        "predicted_H": 5.381,
        "predicted_BB": 1.642,
        "predicted_SO": 4.96,
        "predicted_HR": 0.57,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.4579,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3273
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "final": 2.2853,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.381,
          "final": 4.3854,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.642,
          "final": 1.7917,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.96,
          "final": 4.9767,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.57,
          "final": 0.7498,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.4579,
          "final": 5.4579,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3273,
          "final": 1.3273,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 28,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 47,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 4.55421686746988,
        "WHIP": 1.13855421686747,
        "K9": 7.644578313253013,
        "HR9": 0.6506024096385543,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0076716291582406,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "657277",
      "player_name": "Logan Webb",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
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          {
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            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "delta": -0.2333,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 149,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4161,
        "runs_scored": 628.0,
        "runs_allowed": 703.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5034,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2148,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7181,
        "offense_index": 0.9349,
        "defense_index": 0.9555,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -4.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1327
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 148,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5405,
        "runs_scored": 633.0,
        "runs_allowed": 613.0,
        "run_differential": 20.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1351,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.277,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1419,
        "offense_index": 0.9487,
        "defense_index": 1.0884,
        "current_streak": "W6",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0,
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1209
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2536,
        "offense_edge": -0.0651,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0513,
        "defense_strength": -0.0445,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9906,
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        "strikeout": 0.9965
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "657277",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "657277",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 617.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.892,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.1729,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1429,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0623
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "657277",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "components": {
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0006,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9669,
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          "homer_factor": 0.979,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "657277",
            "espn_id": 41216,
            "player_name": "Logan Webb",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 109,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 109,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 313,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 56,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 12,
              "era_value": 4.1049,
              "era_rank": 37.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 67,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 64,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 155.2,
              "ip_rank": 39,
              "h_value": 139.0,
              "h_rank": 41,
              "er_value": 71.0,
              "er_rank": 27,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 137,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 88,
              "k_value": 127.0,
              "k_rank": 61,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.3426123,
              "k_per_9_rank": 42.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1498,
              "whip_rank": 21.0,
              "war_value": 1.67,
              "war_rank": 35.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.979,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9669,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_SD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_SEA@OAK

away

Bryce Miller

True

5.1

5.0

-1

-2

4/2

1/5

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.221498371335505,
      "WHIP": 1.1433224755700326,
      "IP": 102.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 19,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.407,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3423,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9709,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0143,
      "walk_factor": 0.956,
      "homer_factor": 0.9582,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.0,
      "woba": 0.306,
      "xwoba": 0.288,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
      "whiff_percent": 25.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 193,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
        "prior_weight": 0.2083
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 19,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 434.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.1,
            "WHIP": 1.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.9,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 228.0,
            "Pitches": 875.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 87.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8859,
            "WHIP": 1.651,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.7651,
            "H_per_IP": 1.16779,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48322,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78523,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22148
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 19,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 102.1,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 52.0,
            "H": 88.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 101.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 415.0,
            "Pitches": 1613.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5263,
            "R": 2.7368,
            "H": 4.6316,
            "BB": 1.5263,
            "SO": 5.3158,
            "HR": 0.9474,
            "BF": 21.8421,
            "Pitches": 84.8947
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2215,
            "WHIP": 1.1433,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46906,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85993,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28339,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.98697,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1759
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.564,
        "predicted_H": 5.458,
        "predicted_BB": 2.351,
        "predicted_SO": 4.531,
        "predicted_HR": 0.982,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.4115,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5606
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.438,
      "form_weight": 0.562,
      "form_reliability": 0.7917,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7917,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.564,
          "final": 3.755,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.458,
          "final": 4.8194,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.351,
          "final": 1.7593,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.531,
          "final": 5.6124,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.982,
          "final": 1.4279,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.4115,
          "final": 6.4115,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5606,
          "final": 1.5606,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 38,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 24,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 6.885906040268456,
        "WHIP": 1.651006711409396,
        "K9": 7.067114093959732,
        "HR9": 1.993288590604027,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2827979734616286,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7917,
          "prior_weight": 0.2083
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 149,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4698,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3826,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0604,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.443,
        "offense_index": 0.9038,
        "defense_index": 1.0112,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 149,
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        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.4027,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 852.0,
        "run_differential": -204.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3691,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.349,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7181,
        "offense_index": 0.968,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1803
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1078,
        "offense_edge": -0.0962,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.032,
        "defense_strength": 0.0112,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2143,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0059,
        "run_prevention": 0.9884,
        "strikeout": 1.0058
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 394.0,
            "k_percent": 24.3,
            "bb_percent": 7.0,
            "woba": 0.306,
            "xwoba": 0.288,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.7874,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.9438,
            "whiff_percent": 25.2,
            "swing_percent": 54.6
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3895,
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            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6571,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0286,
            "bb_edge": 0.55,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0387
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.53704637922834,
                "release_spin_rate": 2146.4219419634296,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.537,
              "release_spin_rate": 2146.4219,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0387,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.2763,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3423,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9709,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0143,
          "walk_factor": 0.956,
          "homer_factor": 0.9582,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682243",
            "espn_id": 4654313,
            "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 193,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 193,
              "gp_value": 19.0,
              "gp_rank": 407,
              "gs_value": 18.0,
              "gs_rank": 114,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 141,
              "era_value": 4.2214,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 192,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 102.1,
              "ip_rank": 123,
              "h_value": 88.0,
              "h_rank": 130,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 120,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 62,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 183,
              "k_value": 101.0,
              "k_rank": 103,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.882736,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22.0,
              "whip_value": 1.1433,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.91,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9709,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9709,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.956,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9582,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0143,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_SEA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_SEA@OAK

home

Jacob Lopez

True

5.0

3.2

-4

-1

7/6

1/3

7/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.783783783783784,
      "WHIP": 1.4504504504504505,
      "IP": 111.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.873,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2888,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9755,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
      "walk_factor": 1.032,
      "homer_factor": 0.9238,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.8,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.29,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 30.2,
      "whiff_percent": 24.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 157,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 120.0,
            "Pitches": 479.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1034,
            "WHIP": 1.1379,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31034,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17241
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 17.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 19.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 931.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 1.9,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 93.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7485,
            "WHIP": 1.1138,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30539,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77246,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34132,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09581,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14371
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 111.0,
            "ER": 59.0,
            "R": 62.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 53.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 492.0,
            "Pitches": 1984.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.4583,
            "R": 2.5833,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.2083,
            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 0.7917,
            "BF": 20.5,
            "Pitches": 82.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7838,
            "WHIP": 1.4505,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53153,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47748,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93694,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17117
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.135,
        "predicted_H": 4.69,
        "predicted_BB": 1.946,
        "predicted_SO": 5.482,
        "predicted_HR": 0.868,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.5294,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2189
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.135,
          "final": 3.7693,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.69,
          "final": 5.6668,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.946,
          "final": 1.546,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.482,
          "final": 6.1239,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.868,
          "final": 1.7695,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.5294,
          "final": 3.5294,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2189,
          "final": 1.2189,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
        "ER": 17,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 19,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 2.748502994011976,
        "WHIP": 1.1137724550898205,
        "K9": 9.862275449101796,
        "HR9": 1.2934131736526946,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-07T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8039092743497852,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "682052",
      "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0625,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0625,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 89,
        "win_pct": 0.4027,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 852.0,
        "run_differential": -204.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.3691,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.349,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7181,
        "offense_index": 0.968,
        "defense_index": 0.7857,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1803
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4698,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": -57.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3826,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0604,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.443,
        "offense_index": 0.9038,
        "defense_index": 1.0112,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0725
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1078,
        "offense_edge": -0.032,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0962,
        "defense_strength": -0.2143,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0112,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9931,
        "run_prevention": 1.0114,
        "strikeout": 1.0045
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682052",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682052",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 463.0,
            "k_percent": 21.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.8,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.29,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 30.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 71.5785,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.3781,
            "whiff_percent": 24.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3943,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1579,
            "regression_edge": 1.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.6,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0571,
            "bb_edge": -0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.28
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682052",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 84.031463275553,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.6861671894067,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 95,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 84.031463275553,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.6861671894067,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 84.0315,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.6862,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2888,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9755,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9926,
          "walk_factor": 1.032,
          "homer_factor": 0.9238,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.046,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "682052",
            "espn_id": 42239,
            "player_name": "Jacob Lopez",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 157,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 157,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 344,
              "gs_value": 21.0,
              "gs_rank": 94,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 125,
              "era_value": 4.7837,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 109,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 190,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 272,
              "ip_value": 111.0,
              "ip_rank": 108,
              "h_value": 108.0,
              "h_rank": 109,
              "er_value": 59.0,
              "er_rank": 74,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 52,
              "bb_value": 53.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 104.0,
              "k_rank": 96,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.432432,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24.0,
              "whip_value": 1.4504,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.18,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9755,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9755,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.032,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9238,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9926,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_SEA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_TEX@ARI

away

Cal Quantrill

True

6.0

-1

7/5

1/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.892857142857143,
      "WHIP": 1.0616883116883116,
      "IP": 102.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.4,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0384,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9497,
      "walk_factor": 0.936,
      "homer_factor": 0.9976,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.5,
      "bb_percent": 6.0,
      "woba": 0.276,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 7.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.2,
      "whiff_percent": 19.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 93,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "615698",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 463.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 92.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.6875,
            "WHIP": 0.75,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.1875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09375
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 769.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 3.3,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 76.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8917,
            "WHIP": 0.8408,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21019,
            "H_per_IP": 0.63057,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21019,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.87898,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07643
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 102.2,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 39.0,
            "H": 84.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 77.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 417.0,
            "Pitches": 1587.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.1,
            "R": 1.3,
            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 0.8333,
            "SO": 2.5667,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 13.9,
            "Pitches": 52.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8929,
            "WHIP": 1.0617,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81818,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24351,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.438,
        "predicted_H": 3.951,
        "predicted_BB": 1.061,
        "predicted_SO": 4.728,
        "predicted_HR": 0.548,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.3655,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9161
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.438,
          "final": 2.079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.951,
          "final": 5.2022,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.061,
          "final": 1.036,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.728,
          "final": 4.4292,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.548,
          "final": 1.1439,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3655,
          "final": 2.3655,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9161,
          "final": 0.9161,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.1,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 33,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 1.89171974522293,
        "WHIP": 0.840764331210191,
        "K9": 7.910828025477707,
        "HR9": 0.6878980891719745,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": true,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7006959557640268,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "615698",
      "player_name": "Cal Quantrill",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 1.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
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        ],
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4899,
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        "available": true,
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        "wins": 79,
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        "runs_scored": 659.0,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "615698",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "615698",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.6896,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.33,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7571,
            "bb_edge": 0.8,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0013
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "615698",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.86889101613033,
              "release_spin_rate": 1951.1701617807282,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.86889101613033,
                "release_spin_rate": 1951.1701617807282,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8689,
              "release_spin_rate": 1951.1702,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0013,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.009,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0384,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0033,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "615698",
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            "player_name": "Cal Quantrill",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 93,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 93,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 225,
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              "gs_rank": 156,
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              "era_rank": null,
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              "w_rank": 67,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 137,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
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              "hld_rank": 354,
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              "ip_rank": 121,
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              "h_rank": 142,
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              "er_rank": 176,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 137,
              "bb_value": 25.0,
              "bb_rank": 221,
              "k_value": 77.0,
              "k_rank": 161,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.75,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35.0,
              "whip_value": 1.0616,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.77,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.9976,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9497,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_TEX@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260913

20260913_TEX@ARI

home

Eduardo Rodriguez

True

6.0

5.1

-2

2/8

2/1

6/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.293,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "report_date": "20260913",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
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            "BB": 10.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
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          },
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            "H_per_IP": 0.74157,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.91011,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06742
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 57.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
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            "Pitches": 986.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 4.9,
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            "Pitches": 98.6
          },
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.83051,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05085
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 53.0,
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            "BB": 57.0,
            "SO": 128.0,
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            "BF": 710.0,
            "Pitches": 2773.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 95.6207
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.28324,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87283,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32948,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.73988,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08671
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.81,
        "predicted_H": 5.194,
        "predicted_BB": 1.987,
        "predicted_SO": 5.17,
        "predicted_HR": 0.465,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.7145,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1969
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.81,
          "final": 1.8883,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
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        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.17,
          "final": 5.5121,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7145,
          "final": 2.7145,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1969,
          "final": 1.1969,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
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        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "HR9": 0.4576271186440678,
        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8418583761461923,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "593958",
      "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          {
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 149,
        "wins": 79,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5302,
        "runs_scored": 659.0,
        "runs_allowed": 656.0,
        "run_differential": 3.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0201,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4228,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4027,
        "offense_index": 0.9845,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0631
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 149,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4899,
        "runs_scored": 617.0,
        "runs_allowed": 662.0,
        "run_differential": -45.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.302,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1409,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.443,
        "offense_index": 0.9217,
        "defense_index": 1.0112,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0806
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1437,
        "offense_edge": -0.0155,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0783,
        "defense_strength": 0.0204,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0112,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0095,
        "run_prevention": 0.9782,
        "strikeout": 1.0106
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "593958",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "593958",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 683.0,
            "k_percent": 18.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.067,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.2402,
            "whiff_percent": 21.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 131.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5837,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9189,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0703,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3721,
            "regression_edge": -0.7714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0853
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "593958",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 103,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 103,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.32297298554603,
              "release_spin_rate": 2174.0124226478806,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 103,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.32297298554603,
                "release_spin_rate": 2174.0124226478806,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.323,
              "release_spin_rate": 2174.0124,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0853,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6093,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1413,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.012,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9571,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 0.985,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.027,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "593958",
            "espn_id": 32675,
            "player_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez",
            "team": "ARI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 8,
            "espn_total_ranked": 860,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 8,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 244,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 14,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 6,
              "era_value": 2.5491,
              "era_rank": 6.0,
              "w_value": 15.0,
              "w_rank": 3,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 137,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 251,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 354,
              "ip_value": 173.0,
              "ip_rank": 7,
              "h_value": 151.0,
              "h_rank": 22,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 110,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 94,
              "bb_value": 57.0,
              "bb_rank": 20,
              "k_value": 128.0,
              "k_rank": 59,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.65896,
              "k_per_9_rank": 227.0,
              "whip_value": 1.2023,
              "whip_rank": 28.0,
              "war_value": 5.32,
              "war_rank": 8.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.012,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.985,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9571,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260913_TEX@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}