Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260911 · dates 20260911 · generated 2026-09-12T09:00:16.558835+00:00

10-5

Winner picks · 66.7%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

15/30

Starter ER within ±1

24/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260911	15	15	0	10	5	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 12
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.75]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2091.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	10	51.9%	70.0%	-18.1%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	4	58.1%	75.0%	-17.0%	underconfident
0.65-0.70	1	65.3%	0.0%	65.3%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	2.4049	2.8753	4.1176	60.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	2.4	2.9333	4.1333	53.3%	-0.0049	0.0157
enhanced_prediction	15	2.4333	2.7333	3.9333	66.7%	0.0284	-0.1843
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.4	2.5333	3.8667	66.7%	-0.0049	-0.2509
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.4	2.5333	3.8667	66.7%	-0.0049	-0.2509
capped_target	15	2.4	2.5333	3.8667	66.7%	-0.0049	-0.2509
simulation_result	15	2.4	2.5333	3.8667	66.7%	-0.0049	-0.2509
published_final	15	2.4	2.5333	3.8667	66.7%	-0.0049	-0.2509

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.4333,
  "total_run_mae": 2.7333,
  "margin_mae": 3.9333,
  "winner_hits": 10,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.6667,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0284,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.1843
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=5

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	0.0	4.0	4.0	5	3	0	2	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	5	1	0	4	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.532	-0.522	0.01	1.054	5	2	3	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5	0	0	5	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.532,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.522,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.01,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.054,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 3,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 5,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=10

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	7.0	-2.0	5.0	9.0	10	4	2	4	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	2.0	0.0	2.0	2.0	10	2	0	8	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	1.7596	-1.8257	-0.0661	3.5853	10	6	4	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10	0	0	10	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 10,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 7.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 5.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 9.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 4,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 2.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.7596,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.8257,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.0661,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.5853,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 6,
      "games_opposing_pick": 4,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 10,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 10,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	5	2	3	0.4
[0.525, 0.550)	5	5	0	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	4	3	1	0.75
[0.600, 1.010)	1	0	1	0.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 5,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 4,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.75
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260911	15	0.5446	9.7333	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260911",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5446,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.7333,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	10	5	0.6667

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 10,
      "misses": 5,
      "accuracy": 0.6667
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260911_BAL@TOR

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreBAL 4 - 5 TOR

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=442

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1968

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.34958779708182-4.1899260641339415	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 TOR",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 442,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5452,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52765,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0635,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0635,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.0612,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.676,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1968
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02152769744439813
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021525632872566716
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02125205640166892
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021250018264654037
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019151465088885742
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.040809643108487,
      "1": 0.06782057184887003,
      "2": 0.09927064606026265,
      "3": 0.1279796740322987,
      "4": 0.1453188329624642,
      "5": 0.14533277081836302,
      "6": 0.12801650201890696,
      "7": 0.09931826154716189,
      "8": 0.06786611871709365,
      "9": 0.040844883927806455,
      "10": 0.021651254769696503,
      "11": 0.010108558410466257,
      "12": 0.004156771290526817,
      "13": 0.0015055104875957954
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04256949714562207,
      "1": 0.07064325402215782,
      "2": 0.10295576556718085,
      "3": 0.13177664597629707,
      "4": 0.14812693189001028,
      "5": 0.14623031186978297,
      "6": 0.12677936893952343,
      "7": 0.09653116907162959,
      "8": 0.0645497176332865,
      "9": 0.037907830364262006,
      "10": 0.019551105126899337,
      "11": 0.008855671419131565,
      "12": 0.003522730974216379
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 TOR",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0669,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.606,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
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        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
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          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.0612,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.676,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1968
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.022585376449406187
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.022583079176489763
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          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.022276519982615855
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 3,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03870354449791247,
          "1": 0.06633137585542305,
          "2": 0.09935877971798505,
          "3": 0.13008058165270764,
          "4": 0.1488461716636474,
          "5": 0.1488613131010131,
          "6": 0.13012028319135205,
          "7": 0.09940932656217419,
          "8": 0.06637862337564285,
          "9": 0.038738993123854724,
          "10": 0.019760020629990643,
          "11": 0.008809381872694321,
          "12": 0.003432594140221992,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.13402054827373416,
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          "7": 0.09634037486961053,
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          "10": 0.01771258718133455,
          "11": 0.0076469234130842195,
          "12": 0.002876613882382236
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.34958779708182,
      "home_runs": 4.1899260641339415,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_CHW@STL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSTL

Published scoreCHW 4 - 6 STL

Final confidence59.8%

Calibrationraw 62.3% → blended 59.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.5% · weight 50.0% · n=278

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.145

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.884948731549157-4.9517396860618526	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.196726,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.598363,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.598363,
    "away_win_probability": 0.401637
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.196726,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 6 STL",
    "confidence": 0.5983632,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6225,
    "sample_size": 278,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5647,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5936,
    "published_confidence": 0.598363,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.3846,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.3,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.145
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018942930865216596
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018643690433615894
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018259456928148322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01797101329654501
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.0178314508721453
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.023771634835783255,
      "1": 0.04009751148138618,
      "2": 0.06136997975805601,
      "3": 0.08522651482454796,
      "4": 0.10739242960173324,
      "5": 0.12278711516662576,
      "6": 0.12738318794986486,
      "7": 0.1199089556957687,
      "8": 0.10241682713280718,
      "9": 0.079372709061267,
      "10": 0.055815044977198726,
      "11": 0.035613244732822465,
      "12": 0.020618259380101946,
      "13": 0.010831101929681317,
      "14": 0.005162659430877625,
      "15": 0.00223282404147771
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04296787294672846,
      "1": 0.07128029888387775,
      "2": 0.10377910761922243,
      "3": 0.13260659231395558,
      "4": 0.14870824926027212,
      "5": 0.14635911326817813,
      "6": 0.1264210058775356,
      "7": 0.09583705868275198,
      "8": 0.06376207977181277,
      "9": 0.03723113150391679,
      "10": 0.01907940202203852,
      "11": 0.00858100284649249,
      "12": 0.003387085003217416
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 6 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHW 4 - 6 STL",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0192,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "STL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.145,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.5984,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6124,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5984,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.145,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.3,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0192,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
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      "parameters": {
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
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        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-12T00:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.622954,
      "confidence": 0.622954,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 10
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
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            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_CIN@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreCIN 6 - 8 MIL

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 67.9% → blended 62.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.7% · weight 50.0% · n=319

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.5263

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.178621727506746-5.052760252546923	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 8-6",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 6 - 8 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.678813,
    "sample_size": 319,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.623107,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.2254,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.228,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.5263
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014667058971784323
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01438243394778807
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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      "13": 0.030833606493458687,
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      "15": 0.01061900406710442,
      "16": 0.005536351734988803,
      "17": 0.0026674953104183345
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.025471762515428823,
      "1": 0.0428983131803733,
      "2": 0.06535026007489844,
      "3": 0.09004929382403397,
      "4": 0.11223781121235611,
      "5": 0.12653887017452733,
      "6": 0.12904304499574545,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "CIN 6 - 8 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "CIN 6 - 8 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0379,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
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        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 8
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    },
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      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
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        "median": 11,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 1
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          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.5263
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 2.4421,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 2.4421,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.5263,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.2254,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.525,
          "home_runs": 8.768,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "away_distribution": {
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.178621727506746,
      "home_runs": 5.052760252546923,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_CLE@MIN

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreCLE 4 - 5 MIN

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 55.3% → blended 54.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=420

H2H base featurehome net -9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0888

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.642479091524805-4.0427795232615535	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.010526,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505263,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505263,
    "away_win_probability": 0.494737
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.010526,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN",
    "confidence": 0.50526269,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.553482,
    "sample_size": 420,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.548191,
    "published_confidence": 0.505263,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
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    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0519,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0519,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -9.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
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    "recent_quality_edge": 0.304,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.0888
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02642052482345289
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.025525735159183535
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      {
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        "home_runs": 3,
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    "home_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.15782786943998653,
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      "5": 0.1450374079995311,
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      "7": 0.07215330987584331,
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
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  "simulation_reconciliation": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0544,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.234,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
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      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIN",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6002,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0544,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.8333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 3
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-12T00:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.507284,
      "confidence": 0.507284,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "home_net_margin": -9.0,
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        "away": {
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.642479091524805,
      "home_runs": 4.0427795232615535,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_COL@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickDET

Published scoreCOL 4 - 5 DET

Final confidence54.1%

Calibrationraw 62.7% → blended 59.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.1% · weight 50.0% · n=317

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.0596

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.031272080338221-4.9688260026257325	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.082338,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.541169,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.541169,
    "away_win_probability": 0.458831
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.082338,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 5 DET",
    "confidence": 0.5411689,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.62733,
    "sample_size": 317,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5615,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.594415,
    "published_confidence": 0.541169,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.5548,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.14,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.0596
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020742692687590557
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020282813022249425
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01976567013998132
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019327451731883518
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01904189739583601
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.029765127748213185,
      "1": 0.04993787949080211,
      "2": 0.07520740169631022,
      "3": 0.10167149603816167,
      "4": 0.12338034629536271,
      "5": 0.13440050398826608,
      "6": 0.13142075301153872,
      "7": 0.11535466089162467,
      "8": 0.09088966107496967,
      "9": 0.06428386237538615,
      "10": 0.04081291201190877,
      "11": 0.02325955195498577,
      "12": 0.01189907626647225,
      "13": 0.005464284375600255,
      "14": 0.0022524827803977712
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04723131157252015,
      "1": 0.07807209826882797,
      "2": 0.11244932132066031,
      "3": 0.1411279284241315,
      "4": 0.15433493232586026,
      "5": 0.1470654465827522,
      "6": 0.12211027164665414,
      "7": 0.08834640660833441,
      "8": 0.055695579009707924,
      "9": 0.030594805581153024,
      "10": 0.014644340335999253,
      "11": 0.006107831818341062,
      "12": 0.002219726505057794
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0621,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.14,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "home_runs": 5,
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      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "DET",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
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      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
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        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 1
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          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.5548,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.14,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.0596
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.445,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.445,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.0596,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.5548,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.15,
          "home_runs": 5.292,
          "home_win_probability": 0.5971
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          {
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          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02078547546001164
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          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.027910445972846542,
          "1": 0.048317967604378564,
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          "3": 0.10270487423764904,
          "4": 0.12610478605780978,
          "5": 0.1380823898560133,
          "6": 0.13483766743372816,
          "7": 0.11742224457127734,
          "8": 0.0911917889168837,
          "9": 0.06315784508784594,
          "10": 0.03900902384633803,
          "11": 0.02148666795850547,
          "12": 0.010554539100699757,
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.045127911141599024,
          "1": 0.07690229675362505,
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          "3": 0.14409180480383263,
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          "6": 0.1235858554800892,
          "7": 0.08767715966207401,
          "8": 0.05374954354156124,
          "9": 0.028473030466992785,
          "10": 0.0130335646166084,
          "11": 0.005155411430621017
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.031272080338221,
      "home_runs": 4.9688260026257325,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_HOU@TB

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreHOU 3 - 5 TB

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=420

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4817

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.923747110021415-4.556056957112862	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.505,
    "away_win_probability": 0.495
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 TB",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 420,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5015,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.667,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0136,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0136,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.7842,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.08,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4817
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026129890167988647
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02508749315595083
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02474566696230209
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023802612019906057
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02375849062376595
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05328215247673177,
      "1": 0.08763434456712889,
      "2": 0.1243413383456663,
      "3": 0.1521967382889136,
      "4": 0.1607103199713254,
      "5": 0.14639653551084458,
      "6": 0.11504465487424327,
      "7": 0.07799211627434004,
      "8": 0.04561246856047781,
      "9": 0.02301256679677888,
      "10": 0.010016019470213673,
      "11": 0.0037607448633358337
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05562247834125187,
      "1": 0.09130441112462899,
      "2": 0.12878921073122007,
      "3": 0.15610380939087823,
      "4": 0.16258999529495585,
      "5": 0.14551924520239964,
      "6": 0.11191630057669393,
      "7": 0.07396266587456884,
      "8": 0.04200278276698844,
      "9": 0.02049697964535468,
      "10": 0.00859504140448383,
      "11": 0.0030970796465756827
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 TB",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0576,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1967,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4817,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.505,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5727,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4817,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.08,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0576,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.3333,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:572db7e04317a216045766487f754995efb5508ae620b5a5f13a0292cb5134dd",
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T22:39:09.827363+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-11T23:10:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.504987,
      "confidence": 0.504987,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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      "confidence": 0.505136,
      "predicted_score": {
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "score_coherence": {
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        "starter_experience": {
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      "h2h_base_feature": {
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.6557,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0857,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.2023,
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        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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        "adjusted_score": {
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    "validity": {
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      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.923747110021415,
      "home_runs": 4.556056957112862,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_KC@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreKC 4 - 6 BOS

Final confidence65.3%

Calibrationraw 79.4% → blended 67.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=229

H2H base featurehome net 9.0 · absolute 9.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.015

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.1892285883583735-5.816908472222824	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.305756,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.652878,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.652878,
    "away_win_probability": 0.347122
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.305756,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 6 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.652878,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.794104,
    "sample_size": 229,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5546,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.674352,
    "published_confidence": 0.652878,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 9.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 9.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0614,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0614,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3095,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.468,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.015
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01914164101102589
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018547107650508928
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01826787469637832
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01800504689518884
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017700480243285997
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.021397873257030953,
      "1": 0.036173867532636295,
      "2": 0.05573543466154153,
      "3": 0.07826722866568396,
      "4": 0.10017068316656935,
      "5": 0.11684588719543267,
      "6": 0.12422194950835982,
      "7": 0.12036365475460112,
      "8": 0.10629296149152517,
      "9": 0.0855511326702164,
      "10": 0.06275656087002096,
      "11": 0.04195701886445711,
      "12": 0.02556596710688337,
      "13": 0.014198156012820411,
      "14": 0.007186439563479713,
      "15": 0.003315184678741226
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.047029343162046586,
      "1": 0.07775142624086169,
      "2": 0.11204440298462205,
      "3": 0.14073895463319547,
      "4": 0.154092260560906,
      "5": 0.14705834813153482,
      "6": 0.12233222977034822,
      "7": 0.08870221231033368,
      "8": 0.056062229250999414,
      "9": 0.030885072547067138,
      "10": 0.01483095919724696,
      "11": 0.006207721229685715,
      "12": 0.0022648399811521784
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 6 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "KC 4 - 6 BOS",
      "winner": "BOS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0444,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.818,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "BOS",
      "model_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner": "BOS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "BOS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "BOS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
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    "display_confidence": 0.6529,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6504,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6529,
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.468,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 9,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 2
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 67,
          "win_pct": 0.54421768707483,
          "runs_scored": 652,
          "runs_allowed": 570,
          "run_differential": 82,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.5578231292517006,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "KC",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 65,
          "losses": 82,
          "win_pct": 0.4421768707482993,
          "runs_scored": 629,
          "runs_allowed": 717,
          "run_differential": -88,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5986394557823129,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.1565,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.102,
        "quality_edge": 1.015,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.3095,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.3095,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.468,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.015
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.4263,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.4263,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.015,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.3095,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 2.927,
          "home_runs": 7.392,
          "home_win_probability": 0.8795
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.020165460413124357
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.019738463113036335,
          "1": 0.034447469478569276,
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          "5": 0.11946413340301487,
          "6": 0.12747753408981727,
          "7": 0.12328214902050177,
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.143688540634831,
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          "5": 0.15054057791824974,
          "6": 0.12383956163961501,
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          "9": 0.028763206934894453,
          "10": 0.0132114376196888,
          "11": 0.005245532565987016
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.1892285883583735,
      "home_runs": 5.816908472222824,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_LAA@WAS

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickWAS

Published scoreLAA 4 - 5 WAS

Final confidence57.6%

Calibrationraw 72.5% → blended 64.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.2% · weight 50.0% · n=329

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2132

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.632033687298248-6.055544304745193	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.151346,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.575673,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.575673,
    "away_win_probability": 0.424327
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.151346,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "WAS wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 WAS",
    "confidence": 0.57567295,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.725415,
    "sample_size": 329,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.643858,
    "published_confidence": 0.575673,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6037,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.512,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2132
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02081268480131504
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02074426766027223
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01945500141285476
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019391047358471192
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019279255184033114
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.027812570956064694,
      "1": 0.046743223560223604,
      "2": 0.07076437543646608,
      "3": 0.09650041742783466,
      "4": 0.11853925717476921,
      "5": 0.13116371423025625,
      "6": 0.13073254225884276,
      "7": 0.11737408034130417,
      "8": 0.09492469135641518,
      "9": 0.06915198968631973,
      "10": 0.045378346041181204,
      "11": 0.026823234116677423,
      "12": 0.014282101436252895,
      "13": 0.006850015934735531,
      "14": 0.002959440042656676
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05106447425805812,
      "1": 0.08414334880803091,
      "2": 0.12005659565254871,
      "3": 0.1483260940499272,
      "4": 0.15867715338388966,
      "5": 0.1469861942929477,
      "6": 0.11789733669063682,
      "7": 0.08188356599576757,
      "8": 0.049244168120567984,
      "9": 0.02564355118362992,
      "10": 0.011562901694599241,
      "11": 0.004514615869396174
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 WAS",
      "winner": "WAS"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0895,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.512,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "model_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner": "WAS",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "WAS",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "WAS",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2132,
      "winner": "WAS",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "WAS",
    "display_confidence": 0.5757,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5848,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5757,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2132,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.512,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0895,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-11T22:45:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.589027,
      "confidence": 0.589027,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
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        "away": {
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    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.632033687298248,
      "home_runs": 6.055544304745193,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_LAD@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreLAD 6 - 4 MIA

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 84.9% → blended 69.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=219

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -1.1406

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.892848465053001-3.001767361239306	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.42,
    "away_win_probability": 0.58
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.849075,
    "sample_size": 219,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5479,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.698487,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.333,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.2896,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.864,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -1.1406
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.020689448252209322
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.020458173434324448
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.019950532239710817
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.019727517316635104
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019540410629512176
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.060658579361856174,
      "1": 0.09915288052456935,
      "2": 0.1381045817864221,
      "3": 0.16390812765406265,
      "4": 0.16576107031752854,
      "5": 0.1428414486651641,
      "6": 0.10488553566709495,
      "7": 0.06562459040900644,
      "8": 0.03498704485601772,
      "9": 0.015894159560333746,
      "10": 0.006152583635944114,
      "11": 0.002029397562000041
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02178865087069899,
      "1": 0.03682084852655,
      "2": 0.056669267502361675,
      "3": 0.07943131634169687,
      "4": 0.10139727287626281,
      "5": 0.11788299021043339,
      "6": 0.12481488091611037,
      "7": 0.12035716348533454,
      "8": 0.10569826908279835,
      "9": 0.08453842664698899,
      "10": 0.061578740316467234,
      "11": 0.04085053929527782,
      "12": 0.024680567539121637,
      "13": 0.013580096132861933,
      "14": 0.006805200112323647,
      "15": 0.0031057701447119116
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 MIA",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0171,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.7473,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
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  },
  "decision_profile": {
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6347,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.864,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "run_differential_per_game": 0.047619047619047616,
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        },
        "away": {
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          "runs_scored": 728,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -1.1099,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1198,
        "quality_edge": -1.1406,
        "season_quality_edge": -1.2896,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "season_weight": 0.65,
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          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -1.1406
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        "margin_adjustment": -0.4791,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -1.1406,
          "season_quality_edge": -1.2896,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 1.65,
          "home_win_probability": 0.08
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      "score_distribution": {
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    {
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      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_NYM@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreNYM 4 - 6 NYY

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 66.7% → blended 61.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.4% · weight 50.0% · n=549

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.9382

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.576292868318065-4.241538831737494	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.667256,
    "sample_size": 549,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.610478,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.333,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0068,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0068,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 1.3356,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.2,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.9382
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020002285668156868
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01977393562450477
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      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019070415888652992
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018852704254448596
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      {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018282949359432348
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026285366094843464,
      "1": 0.0442359004702447,
      "2": 0.06723893837854507,
      "3": 0.09231068143328151,
      "4": 0.11446381050367224,
      "5": 0.12819455394011095,
      "6": 0.12967494876611155,
      "7": 0.1184752757255527,
      "8": 0.09776524762250795,
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      "11": 0.029823982443973284,
      "12": 0.016378078391160015,
      "13": 0.00812354123700408,
      "14": 0.0036392590176156235,
      "15": 0.001472535174862582
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    "away_distribution": {
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      "3": 0.140990604071172,
      "4": 0.15424942025027538,
      "5": 0.1470632228515423,
      "6": 0.12218890914773531,
      "7": 0.08847216717765773,
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      "12": 0.0022355716873266426
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0971,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0833,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "pre_margin": 2,
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      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9382,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6762,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9382,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.2,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0971,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 12,
        "max": 12,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-11T23:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.616209,
      "confidence": 0.616209,
      "predicted_score": {
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      },
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
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    },
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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      "home_runs": 6,
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    }
  ]
}

20260911_PHI@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickATL

Published scorePHI 3 - 4 ATL

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=553

H2H base featurehome net 5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2527

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.0934937881194715-5.589871264564516	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.054312,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.527156,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.527156,
    "away_win_probability": 0.472844
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.054312,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ATL wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.527155885,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 553,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5515,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5308,
    "published_confidence": 0.527156,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
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        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5374,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.276,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2527
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
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        "probability": 0.034826282978084364
      },
      {
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    "home_distribution": {
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      "2": 0.16731506961155485,
      "3": 0.18493499521639842,
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          "shrinkage_weight": 0.97951,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.537694,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.537694
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 25,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
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        "home_net_margin": 5.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": 1.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0288,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0288,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
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          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
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            "home_margin": 3.0
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "ATL",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 86,
          "losses": 61,
          "win_pct": 0.5850340136054422,
          "runs_scored": 671,
          "runs_allowed": 561,
          "run_differential": 110,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.7482993197278912,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PHI",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 82,
          "losses": 65,
          "win_pct": 0.5578231292517006,
          "runs_scored": 659,
          "runs_allowed": 622,
          "run_differential": 37,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.25170068027210885,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.4966,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0272,
        "quality_edge": 0.2527,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.5374,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.5374,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.276,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.2527
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "8": 0.013535288019371431,
          "9": 0.004279478257903303
        },
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
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      "home_runs": 5.589871264564516,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_PIT@CHC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCHC

Published scorePIT 4 - 5 CHC

Final confidence53.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=375

H2H base featurehome net 22.0 · absolute 22.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2852

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.288511887466986-5.697415759486734	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.06,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.53,
    "away_win_probability": 0.47
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.06,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHC wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC",
    "confidence": 0.53,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 375,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.552,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.53105,
    "published_confidence": 0.53,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 22.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 22.0,
    "home_average_margin": 4.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.1269,
    "away_run_delta": -0.1269,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6973,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.48,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2852
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022162732995236824
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02193778169001369
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02164447028109523
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02142477933225593
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01988234143494773
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04221759353782748,
      "1": 0.0700801798166088,
      "2": 0.10222658582660982,
      "3": 0.13103865327228484,
      "4": 0.14760528286416,
      "5": 0.14610709213807677,
      "6": 0.12708889659930359,
      "7": 0.09714284905697199,
      "8": 0.0652500696612758,
      "9": 0.03851394789241847,
      "10": 0.019976620210324782,
      "11": 0.009105271566323184,
      "12": 0.0036469575578145096
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04398508426086064,
      "1": 0.07290505364242773,
      "2": 0.10587116689227392,
      "3": 0.13469938913531498,
      "4": 0.15014864349830226,
      "5": 0.14663750416720836,
      "6": 0.12546903786827482,
      "7": 0.09405804240350822,
      "8": 0.06177648075728195,
      "9": 0.03554825221566012,
      "10": 0.017921782484283045,
      "11": 0.007916113484686032,
      "12": 0.0030634491899178586
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC",
      "winner": "CHC"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.056,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.27,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "model_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner": "CHC",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "CHC",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHC",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2852,
      "winner": "CHC",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHC",
    "display_confidence": 0.53,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6088,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.53,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2852,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.48,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.056,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.75,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    },
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T17:45:13.823679+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-11T18:20:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.551657,
      "confidence": 0.551657,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
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      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
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    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_SD@SF

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreSD 5 - 4 SF

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=420

H2H base featurehome net -10.0 · absolute 10.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.4967

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.2657620536968635-4.595555192269463	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.01,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.495,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.01,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "SD 5 - 4 SF",
    "confidence": 0.505,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 420,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5015,
    "published_confidence": 0.505,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -10.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.775,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.02,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.4967
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  "score_distribution": {
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025670226182111518
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024396433669890374
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024076417916378757
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    "home_distribution": {
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      "5": 0.14619485288165543,
      "6": 0.11424980725323713,
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    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
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          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415639,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.973288,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.491728,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.508272
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 6,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "683627": 6,
            "592662": 28
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.675,
          "probability_before": 0.491728,
          "probability_after": 0.494416,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -10.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 10.0,
        "home_average_margin": -2.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0577,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0577,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -4.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "SF",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 62,
          "losses": 85,
          "win_pct": 0.4217687074829932,
          "runs_scored": 617,
          "runs_allowed": 689,
          "run_differential": -72,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.4897959183673469,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 146,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5342465753424658,
          "runs_scored": 619,
          "runs_allowed": 602,
          "run_differential": 17,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.11643835616438356,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.6062,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.1125,
        "quality_edge": -0.4967,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.775,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.775,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.02,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.4967
        },
        "margin_adjustment": -0.2086,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": -0.2086,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": -0.4967,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.775,
          "recent_alignment": "conflict",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 4.088,
          "home_runs": 3.697,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4668
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.026934246405490567
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.025518895964134796
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.025164010982192543
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.024720826566615183
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02427969650420723
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.05164566589087244,
          "1": 0.08749644278855881,
          "2": 0.12660253151365958,
          "3": 0.15645514882409395,
          "4": 0.16513259569529803,
          "5": 0.14885767532060898,
          "6": 0.11460541406867623,
          "7": 0.075358893681228,
          "8": 0.04232133618196486,
          "9": 0.020299236576398597,
          "10": 0.008315636877025192,
          "11": 0.0029094225816151636
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04940505030321622,
          "1": 0.08386808385028689,
          "2": 0.12208302776151739,
          "3": 0.1523866979516574,
          "4": 0.163106782716536,
          "5": 0.14970288853346644,
          "6": 0.11782068273433953,
          "7": 0.0795144548581567,
          "8": 0.046015466860050536,
          "9": 0.02283467187727617,
          "10": 0.009716702683161283,
          "11": 0.003545489870335498
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.2657620536968635,
      "home_runs": 4.595555192269463,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260911_SEA@OAK

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSEA

Published scoreSEA 7 - 6 OAK

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 49.4% → blended 51.8%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=420

H2H base featurehome net -2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5142

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.240745189192686-5.192914013745966	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	7-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	7-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	7-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	7-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	7-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": -0.011608,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505804,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494196,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505804
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.011608,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 7-6",
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 7,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "SEA 7 - 6 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.5058038425,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.494071,
    "sample_size": 420,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.518486,
    "published_confidence": 0.505804,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -8.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.8707,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.148,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5142
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01455808825271215
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.014531570512006632
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014401573548531034
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01437534090132612
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.013455405754684142
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01973759207256502,
      "1": 0.03342038658292013,
      "2": 0.05174004703994153,
      "3": 0.07323863121824314,
      "4": 0.09478763086871232,
      "5": 0.11216598330685223,
      "6": 0.12135808564263728,
      "7": 0.12005335905047602,
      "8": 0.10858703246976603,
      "9": 0.08980068781082076,
      "10": 0.06790150671924135,
      "11": 0.04694368838155474,
      "12": 0.029673792606203966,
      "13": 0.017150111762032134,
      "14": 0.009062727085184491,
      "15": 0.004378737382849064
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.019030660578758123,
      "1": 0.03224566696542167,
      "2": 0.05002502517705155,
      "3": 0.07105615747916852,
      "4": 0.09240906405996199,
      "5": 0.11003374026944478,
      "6": 0.11995977174179642,
      "7": 0.11974126351002022,
      "8": 0.10943355132781242,
      "9": 0.09157050317045708,
      "10": 0.07015508560323658,
      "11": 0.0492108841657515,
      "12": 0.03160542451194069,
      "13": 0.018584913272383437,
      "14": 0.010005940139825214,
      "15": 0.0049323480269697195
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SEA 7 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "SEA 7 - 6 OAK",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0066,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.218,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5142,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 7,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "SEA",
    "display_confidence": 0.5058,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5761,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5058,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.5142,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.148,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0066,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.1667,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 8,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
        "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
        "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
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    },
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 7,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260911_TEX@ARI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTEX

Published scoreTEX 6 - 4 ARI

Final confidence56.8%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 58.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.0% · weight 50.0% · n=477

H2H base featurehome net -3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=3

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0851

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.759594734510072-3.6856454462548274	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.136024,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.568012,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.431988,
    "away_win_probability": 0.568012
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.136024,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 6 - 4 ARI",
    "confidence": 0.5680119,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.61,
    "sample_size": 477,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.58485,
    "published_confidence": 0.568012,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 3,
    "sample_weight": 0.0409,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
            "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
            "context.lineup_context_weight": 1.0,
            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
            "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
            "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
            "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.61,
        "sample_size": 477,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.58485
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.58485,
        "final_confidence": 0.5824,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5824,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.976364,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 1.0,
        "calibration_sample_size": 477,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5576,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0851,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": -1,
          "probability_before": 0.417633,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.415639,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.976364,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.417633,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.582367
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 3,
        "sample_weight": 0.0409,
        "home_net_margin": -3.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0205,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0205,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "ARI",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 78,
          "losses": 69,
          "win_pct": 0.5306122448979592,
          "runs_scored": 648,
          "runs_allowed": 649,
          "run_differential": -1,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.006802721088435374,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "TEX",
          "games": 147,
          "wins": 72,
          "losses": 75,
          "win_pct": 0.4897959183673469,
          "runs_scored": 610,
          "runs_allowed": 651,
          "run_differential": -41,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.2789115646258503,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2721,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0408,
        "quality_edge": 0.0851,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3333,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.3333,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.376,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0851
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.023522846252253992
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02230915622165383
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02201053125737163
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.02193402638782434
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.021547269044127383
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04964988308133173,
          "1": 0.08426525061389968,
          "2": 0.12258062259606901,
          "3": 0.15284039392527535,
          "4": 0.16334185874019244,
          "5": 0.14962351658892153,
          "6": 0.11747494261782723,
          "7": 0.07905578307128941,
          "8": 0.04560002361502876,
          "9": 0.022544442998809686,
          "10": 0.009553378208446824,
          "11": 0.003469903942908189
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.032327819548014704,
          "1": 0.055730902149975406,
          "2": 0.08496449876075073,
          "3": 0.11455147676663417,
          "4": 0.13657954178872317,
          "5": 0.14400990923991416,
          "6": 0.13428294839421454,
          "7": 0.11073148551909474,
          "8": 0.08075011518172255,
          "9": 0.052075918786312625,
          "10": 0.029699729776709954,
          "11": 0.014979241445443691,
          "12": 0.006681114436532066,
          "13": 0.002635298205957397
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.759594734510072,
      "home_runs": 3.6856454462548274,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260911	20260911_BAL@TOR	TOR	50.5%	51.0%	54.5%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	7-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 442, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5452, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52765, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -2.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0635, "away_run_delta": 0.0635, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.0612, "recent_quality_edge": 0.676, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1968 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02152769744439813 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021525632872566716 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02125205640166892 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021250018264654037 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019151465088885742 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.040809643108487, "1": 0.06782057184887003, "2": 0.09927064606026265, "3": 0.1279796740322987, "4": 0.1453188329624642, "5": 0.14533277081836302, "6": 0.12801650201890696, "7": 0.09931826154716189, "8": 0.06786611871709365, "9": 0.040844883927806455, "10": 0.021651254769696503, "11": 0.010108558410466257, "12": 0.004156771290526817, "13": 0.0015055104875957954 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04256949714562207, "1": 0.07064325402215782, "2": 0.10295576556718085, "3": 0.13177664597629707, "4": 0.14812693189001028, "5": 0.14623031186978297, "6": 0.12677936893952343, "7": 0.09653116907162959, "8": 0.0645497176332865, "9": 0.037907830364262006, "10": 0.019551105126899337, "11": 0.008855671419131565, "12": 0.003522730974216379 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0669, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.606, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1968, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_CHW@STL	STL	59.8%	62.3%	56.5%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	3-7	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6225, "sample_size": 278, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5647, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5936, "published_confidence": 0.598363, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3846, "recent_quality_edge": 0.3, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.145 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018942930865216596 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018643690433615894 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018259456928148322 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01797101329654501 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.0178314508721453 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.023771634835783255, "1": 0.04009751148138618, "2": 0.06136997975805601, "3": 0.08522651482454796, "4": 0.10739242960173324, "5": 0.12278711516662576, "6": 0.12738318794986486, "7": 0.1199089556957687, "8": 0.10241682713280718, "9": 0.079372709061267, "10": 0.055815044977198726, "11": 0.035613244732822465, "12": 0.020618259380101946, "13": 0.010831101929681317, "14": 0.005162659430877625, "15": 0.00223282404147771 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04296787294672846, "1": 0.07128029888387775, "2": 0.10377910761922243, "3": 0.13260659231395558, "4": 0.14870824926027212, "5": 0.14635911326817813, "6": 0.1264210058775356, "7": 0.09583705868275198, "8": 0.06376207977181277, "9": 0.03723113150391679, "10": 0.01907940202203852, "11": 0.00858100284649249, "12": 0.003387085003217416 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0192, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.3, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "STL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.145, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_CIN@MIL	MIL	54.0%	67.9%	56.7%	50.0%	6.0-8.0	0-20	hit	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.678813, "sample_size": 319, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5674, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.623107, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.2254, "recent_quality_edge": 0.228, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.5263 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014667058971784323 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01438243394778807 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014373485434714192 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014094557420267979 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013831334580294985 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.014381293878905233, "1": 0.024481402174876578, "2": 0.038513653583323045, "3": 0.055992937886036376, "4": 0.07523014419910865, "5": 0.09340941182654099, "6": 0.10718388256221793, "7": 0.11366020518399807, "8": 0.11138520045918078, "9": 0.10087572053369681, "10": 0.08442788556156455, "11": 0.06530181913761887, "12": 0.04667719508734256, "13": 0.030833606493458687, "14": 0.018822790319619444, "15": 0.01061900406710442, "16": 0.005536351734988803, "17": 0.0026674953104183345 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.025471762515428823, "1": 0.0428983131803733, "2": 0.06535026007489844, "3": 0.09004929382403397, "4": 0.11223781121235611, "5": 0.12653887017452733, "6": 0.12904304499574545, "7": 0.11903403039522137, "8": 0.09931927970710772, "9": 0.07495866963707976, "10": 0.051172432905666816, "11": 0.031599204292770494, "12": 0.017649894524882078, "13": 0.008917312130619118, "14": 0.00407522609654728, "15": 0.0016845943327420166 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 8 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 8 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0379, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.158, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5263, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_CLE@MIN	MIN	50.5%	55.3%	54.3%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	5-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.553482, "sample_size": 420, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.548191, "published_confidence": 0.505263, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": -1.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0519, "away_run_delta": 0.0519, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -9.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.3004, "recent_quality_edge": 0.304, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0888 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02642052482345289 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.025525735159183535 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025202030244519998 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024348507601344393 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023845199626066255 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.054512058226157775, "1": 0.08956486191984803, "2": 0.12668825426599922, "3": 0.1542725482371339, "4": 0.1617314815802516, "5": 0.14596680004922588, "6": 0.11341414420522651, "7": 0.07586369005250661, "8": 0.0436872106620857, "9": 0.021658495279773197, "10": 0.009243913123914137, "11": 0.0033965423978776187 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05669098314265525, "1": 0.09297522769066502, "2": 0.1307948022772816, "3": 0.15782786943998653, "4": 0.16336043276981269, "5": 0.1450374079995311, "6": 0.11045443472859567, "7": 0.07215330987584331, "8": 0.040429589533320716, "9": 0.01943177079628831, "10": 0.0080111598853264, "11": 0.0028330118606932336 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0544, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.234, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0888, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_COL@DET	DET	54.1%	62.7%	56.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-6	hit	Variance Applied (0.0624)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.62733, "sample_size": 317, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5615, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.594415, "published_confidence": 0.541169, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.5548, "recent_quality_edge": 0.14, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.0596 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020742692687590557 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020282813022249425 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01976567013998132 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019327451731883518 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01904189739583601 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.029765127748213185, "1": 0.04993787949080211, "2": 0.07520740169631022, "3": 0.10167149603816167, "4": 0.12338034629536271, "5": 0.13440050398826608, "6": 0.13142075301153872, "7": 0.11535466089162467, "8": 0.09088966107496967, "9": 0.06428386237538615, "10": 0.04081291201190877, "11": 0.02325955195498577, "12": 0.01189907626647225, "13": 0.005464284375600255, "14": 0.0022524827803977712 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04723131157252015, "1": 0.07807209826882797, "2": 0.11244932132066031, "3": 0.1411279284241315, "4": 0.15433493232586026, "5": 0.1470654465827522, "6": 0.12211027164665414, "7": 0.08834640660833441, "8": 0.055695579009707924, "9": 0.030594805581153024, "10": 0.014644340335999253, "11": 0.006107831818341062, "12": 0.002219726505057794 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 4 - 5 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0621, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.14, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.0596, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_HOU@TB	TB	50.5%	46.0%	54.3%	50.0%	3.0-5.0	1-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 420, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5015, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.667, "home_run_delta": -0.0136, "away_run_delta": 0.0136, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.7842, "recent_quality_edge": -0.08, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4817 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026129890167988647 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02508749315595083 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02474566696230209 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023802612019906057 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02375849062376595 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05328215247673177, "1": 0.08763434456712889, "2": 0.1243413383456663, "3": 0.1521967382889136, "4": 0.1607103199713254, "5": 0.14639653551084458, "6": 0.11504465487424327, "7": 0.07799211627434004, "8": 0.04561246856047781, "9": 0.02301256679677888, "10": 0.010016019470213673, "11": 0.0037607448633358337 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05562247834125187, "1": 0.09130441112462899, "2": 0.12878921073122007, "3": 0.15610380939087823, "4": 0.16258999529495585, "5": 0.14551924520239964, "6": 0.11191630057669393, "7": 0.07396266587456884, "8": 0.04200278276698844, "9": 0.02049697964535468, "10": 0.00859504140448383, "11": 0.0030970796465756827 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0576, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.1967, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4817, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_KC@BOS	BOS	65.3%	79.4%	55.5%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	3-2	miss	Variance Applied (0.3723)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.794104, "sample_size": 229, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5546, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.674352, "published_confidence": 0.652878, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 9.0, "absolute_net_margin": 9.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0614, "away_run_delta": -0.0614, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3095, "recent_quality_edge": 0.468, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.015 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01914164101102589 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018547107650508928 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01826787469637832 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01800504689518884 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017700480243285997 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.021397873257030953, "1": 0.036173867532636295, "2": 0.05573543466154153, "3": 0.07826722866568396, "4": 0.10017068316656935, "5": 0.11684588719543267, "6": 0.12422194950835982, "7": 0.12036365475460112, "8": 0.10629296149152517, "9": 0.0855511326702164, "10": 0.06275656087002096, "11": 0.04195701886445711, "12": 0.02556596710688337, "13": 0.014198156012820411, "14": 0.007186439563479713, "15": 0.003315184678741226 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.047029343162046586, "1": 0.07775142624086169, "2": 0.11204440298462205, "3": 0.14073895463319547, "4": 0.154092260560906, "5": 0.14705834813153482, "6": 0.12233222977034822, "7": 0.08870221231033368, "8": 0.056062229250999414, "9": 0.030885072547067138, "10": 0.01483095919724696, "11": 0.006207721229685715, "12": 0.0022648399811521784 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "KC 4 - 6 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "KC 4 - 6 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0444, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.818, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.015, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_LAA@WAS	WAS	57.6%	72.5%	56.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-4	hit	Variance Applied (-0.4235)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.725415, "sample_size": 329, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5623, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.643858, "published_confidence": 0.575673, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6037, "recent_quality_edge": -0.512, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2132 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02081268480131504 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02074426766027223 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01945500141285476 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019391047358471192 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019279255184033114 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.027812570956064694, "1": 0.046743223560223604, "2": 0.07076437543646608, "3": 0.09650041742783466, "4": 0.11853925717476921, "5": 0.13116371423025625, "6": 0.13073254225884276, "7": 0.11737408034130417, "8": 0.09492469135641518, "9": 0.06915198968631973, "10": 0.045378346041181204, "11": 0.026823234116677423, "12": 0.014282101436252895, "13": 0.006850015934735531, "14": 0.002959440042656676 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05106447425805812, "1": 0.08414334880803091, "2": 0.12005659565254871, "3": 0.1483260940499272, "4": 0.15867715338388966, "5": 0.1469861942929477, "6": 0.11789733669063682, "7": 0.08188356599576757, "8": 0.049244168120567984, "9": 0.02564355118362992, "10": 0.011562901694599241, "11": 0.004514615869396174 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0895, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.512, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "WAS", "model_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner": "WAS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "WAS", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "WAS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2132, "winner": "WAS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_LAD@MIA	LAD	58.0%	84.9%	54.8%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	6-2	hit	Variance Applied (0.1089)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.849075, "sample_size": 219, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5479, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.698487, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 0.333, "home_run_delta": 0.0068, "away_run_delta": -0.0068, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.2896, "recent_quality_edge": -0.864, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -1.1406 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.020689448252209322 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.020458173434324448 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.019950532239710817 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.019727517316635104 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019540410629512176 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.060658579361856174, "1": 0.09915288052456935, "2": 0.1381045817864221, "3": 0.16390812765406265, "4": 0.16576107031752854, "5": 0.1428414486651641, "6": 0.10488553566709495, "7": 0.06562459040900644, "8": 0.03498704485601772, "9": 0.015894159560333746, "10": 0.006152583635944114, "11": 0.002029397562000041 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02178865087069899, "1": 0.03682084852655, "2": 0.056669267502361675, "3": 0.07943131634169687, "4": 0.10139727287626281, "5": 0.11788299021043339, "6": 0.12481488091611037, "7": 0.12035716348533454, "8": 0.10569826908279835, "9": 0.08453842664698899, "10": 0.061578740316467234, "11": 0.04085053929527782, "12": 0.024680567539121637, "13": 0.013580096132861933, "14": 0.006805200112323647, "15": 0.0031057701447119116 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 MIA", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 4 MIA", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0171, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.7473, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 1.1406, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_NYM@NYY	NYY	53.0%	66.7%	55.4%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	4-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.667256, "sample_size": 549, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5537, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.610478, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -0.333, "home_run_delta": -0.0068, "away_run_delta": 0.0068, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.3356, "recent_quality_edge": 0.2, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.9382 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020002285668156868 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01977393562450477 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019070415888652992 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018852704254448596 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018282949359432348 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.026285366094843464, "1": 0.0442359004702447, "2": 0.06723893837854507, "3": 0.09231068143328151, "4": 0.11446381050367224, "5": 0.12819455394011095, "6": 0.12967494876611155, "7": 0.1184752757255527, "8": 0.09776524762250795, "9": 0.07286624917653206, "10": 0.049051631623982184, "11": 0.029823982443973284, "12": 0.016378078391160015, "13": 0.00812354123700408, "14": 0.0036392590176156235, "15": 0.001472535174862582 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04715992239199038, "1": 0.07795876345564841, "2": 0.11230626182928098, "3": 0.140990604071172, "4": 0.15424942025027538, "5": 0.1470632228515423, "6": 0.12218890914773531, "7": 0.08847216717765773, "8": 0.05582499764548387, "9": 0.030697141124667527, "10": 0.014710055721088435, "11": 0.0061429626461310585, "12": 0.0022355716873266426 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 6 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0971, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0833, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9382, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_PHI@ATL	ATL	52.7%	51.0%	55.1%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	5-6	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 553, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5515, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5308, "published_confidence": 0.527156, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0288, "away_run_delta": -0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5374, "recent_quality_edge": -0.276, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2527 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.034826282978084364 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03201888792744205 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03187993836768274 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03150816293028573 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.031170304656477296 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0777939627191454, "1": 0.1253652938913337, "2": 0.16731506961155485, "3": 0.18493499521639842, "4": 0.1692892765282062, "5": 0.12834120253289752, "6": 0.0805803345420472, "7": 0.04190041598127751, "8": 0.018044045341723932, "9": 0.006435403635415149 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08154259134297262, "1": 0.13098431860248033, "2": 0.1731359058893949, "3": 0.18831634833273717, "4": 0.16854735697807716, "5": 0.12413347443426227, "6": 0.07522962862070212, "7": 0.03751646987696537, "8": 0.015395296494421722, "9": 0.005198609427986372 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 ATL", "winner": "ATL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1332, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.206, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "ATL", "model_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner": "ATL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ATL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2527, "winner": "ATL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_PIT@CHC	CHC	53.0%	51.0%	55.2%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-12	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 375, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.552, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.53105, "published_confidence": 0.53, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 22.0, "absolute_net_margin": 22.0, "home_average_margin": 4.4, "home_run_delta": 0.1269, "away_run_delta": -0.1269, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6973, "recent_quality_edge": -0.48, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2852 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022162732995236824 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02193778169001369 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02164447028109523 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02142477933225593 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01988234143494773 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04221759353782748, "1": 0.0700801798166088, "2": 0.10222658582660982, "3": 0.13103865327228484, "4": 0.14760528286416, "5": 0.14610709213807677, "6": 0.12708889659930359, "7": 0.09714284905697199, "8": 0.0652500696612758, "9": 0.03851394789241847, "10": 0.019976620210324782, "11": 0.009105271566323184, "12": 0.0036469575578145096 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04398508426086064, "1": 0.07290505364242773, "2": 0.10587116689227392, "3": 0.13469938913531498, "4": 0.15014864349830226, "5": 0.14663750416720836, "6": 0.12546903786827482, "7": 0.09405804240350822, "8": 0.06177648075728195, "9": 0.03554825221566012, "10": 0.017921782484283045, "11": 0.007916113484686032, "12": 0.0030634491899178586 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 5 CHC", "winner": "CHC" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.056, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.27, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "CHC", "model_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner": "CHC", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "CHC", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHC", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2852, "winner": "CHC", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_SD@SF	SD	50.5%	46.0%	54.3%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	7-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 420, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5015, "published_confidence": 0.505, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -10.0, "absolute_net_margin": 10.0, "home_average_margin": -2.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0577, "away_run_delta": 0.0577, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.775, "recent_quality_edge": 0.02, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.4967 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025670226182111518 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024396433669890374 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024076417916378757 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023676415853774762 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02327786082599431 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05388469602866578, "1": 0.0885806215679634, "2": 0.12549373090271143, "3": 0.15321996543702338, "4": 0.1612199234365132, "5": 0.14619485288165543, "6": 0.11424980725323713, "7": 0.0769465036822749, "8": 0.044661399452682285, "9": 0.022340134596235642, "10": 0.009630509516505504, "11": 0.0035778552445318705 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05163573315781047, "1": 0.08504383655327637, "2": 0.12116684018165776, "3": 0.14933897376436733, "4": 0.15922489996852154, "5": 0.14685787804072675, "6": 0.11717418857758967, "7": 0.08087515064904453, "8": 0.04828883106425224, "9": 0.02494173865338364, "10": 0.01114436167160289, "11": 0.004307567717766789 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 SF", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 5 - 4 SF", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0607, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.19, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4967, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_SEA@OAK	SEA	50.6%	49.4%	54.3%	50.0%	7.0-6.0	5-6	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.494071, "sample_size": 420, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5429, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.518486, "published_confidence": 0.505804, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": -0.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0115, "away_run_delta": 0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -8.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.8707, "recent_quality_edge": 0.148, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5142 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01455808825271215 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.014531570512006632 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014401573548531034 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01437534090132612 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.013455405754684142 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.01973759207256502, "1": 0.03342038658292013, "2": 0.05174004703994153, "3": 0.07323863121824314, "4": 0.09478763086871232, "5": 0.11216598330685223, "6": 0.12135808564263728, "7": 0.12005335905047602, "8": 0.10858703246976603, "9": 0.08980068781082076, "10": 0.06790150671924135, "11": 0.04694368838155474, "12": 0.029673792606203966, "13": 0.017150111762032134, "14": 0.009062727085184491, "15": 0.004378737382849064 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.019030660578758123, "1": 0.03224566696542167, "2": 0.05002502517705155, "3": 0.07105615747916852, "4": 0.09240906405996199, "5": 0.11003374026944478, "6": 0.11995977174179642, "7": 0.11974126351002022, "8": 0.10943355132781242, "9": 0.09157050317045708, "10": 0.07015508560323658, "11": 0.0492108841657515, "12": 0.03160542451194069, "13": 0.018584913272383437, "14": 0.010005940139825214, "15": 0.0049323480269697195 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SEA 7 - 6 OAK", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SEA 7 - 6 OAK", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0066, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.218, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5142, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260911	20260911_TEX@ARI	TEX	56.8%	61.0%	56.0%	50.0%	6.0-4.0	1-9	miss	Embedded Savant Run Environment (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 477, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5597, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.58485, "published_confidence": 0.568012, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 3, "sample_weight": 0.0409, "home_net_margin": -3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0205, "away_run_delta": 0.0205, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3333, "recent_quality_edge": -0.376, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0851 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.022394687563126806 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02130359771411478 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021034624726425317 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.020965682961375853 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020616948209482247 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.05188158437789881, "1": 0.08543111448059108, "2": 0.1216432587821358, "3": 0.14977149095251563, "4": 0.1594554592424746, "5": 0.14679753560546208, "6": 0.11686037338269857, "7": 0.08044237919621335, "8": 0.04788193326137093, "9": 0.02464492946973038, "10": 0.010968635757799588, "11": 0.004221305491109139 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03433719774931717, "1": 0.057381130530393246, "2": 0.08539752862395865, "3": 0.11318619375603522, "4": 0.1336021846810503, "5": 0.1404447842019163, "6": 0.1314830051036043, "7": 0.1096239834113835, "8": 0.0813979537885914, "9": 0.05382615370694738, "10": 0.031698970522434776, "11": 0.016625278143638424, "12": 0.007765414329690527, "13": 0.003230221451038963 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 6 - 4 ARI", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 6 - 4 ARI", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0239, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.4927, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8333, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0851, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.4333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0333 }
R	{ "mae": 1.6, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3333 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3333 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.3667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.5 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.7667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.8333 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.7333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.2 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.4667, "mae_innings": 0.8222, "bias_outs": 0.7333 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260911

20260911_BAL@TOR

away

Chris Bassitt

True

5.0

-2

8/6

1/3

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.95703125,
      "WHIP": 1.58203125,
      "IP": 85.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3408,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.029,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9446,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 0.974,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 15.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.355,
      "xwoba": 0.343,
      "barrel_percent": 4.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.4,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 287,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 32.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 472.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 94.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3448,
            "WHIP": 1.4828,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48276,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10345,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37931,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82759,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10345
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 232.0,
            "Pitches": 842.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 84.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3875,
            "WHIP": 1.3875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1125
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 85.1,
            "ER": 47.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 102.0,
            "BB": 33.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 388.0,
            "Pitches": 1451.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.7647,
            "R": 2.8235,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.9412,
            "SO": 3.5882,
            "HR": 0.5294,
            "BF": 22.8235,
            "Pitches": 85.3529
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.957,
            "WHIP": 1.582,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55078,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19531,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38672,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71484,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10547
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.694,
        "predicted_H": 5.848,
        "predicted_BB": 1.927,
        "predicted_SO": 4.426,
        "predicted_HR": 0.626,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4922,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4404
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.694,
          "final": 3.2765,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.848,
          "final": 6.8079,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.927,
          "final": 1.5135,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.426,
          "final": 3.3439,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.626,
          "final": 1.6849,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4922,
          "final": 4.4922,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4404,
          "final": 1.4404,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 58,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.3875,
        "WHIP": 1.3875000000000002,
        "K9": 6.91875,
        "HR9": 1.0125000000000002,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.998700752425999,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605135",
      "player_name": "Chris Bassitt",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
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        },
        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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        {
          "index": 3,
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 147,
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        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.483,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1837,
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0003,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605135",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605135",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.3788,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.54,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9143,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4857,
            "bb_edge": 0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2688
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605135",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.07424126102447,
              "release_spin_rate": 2163.0290515294796,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.07424126102447,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.0742,
              "release_spin_rate": 2163.0291,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -1.9204,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3408,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "strikeout_factor": 0.9446,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "605135",
            "espn_id": 33148,
            "player_name": "Chris Bassitt",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 287,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 287,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 434,
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              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 104,
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              "l_rank": 136,
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              "hld_rank": 351,
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              "h_rank": 114,
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              "er_rank": 121,
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              "hr_rank": 176,
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              "k_value": 61.0,
              "k_rank": 225,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.4335938,
              "k_per_9_rank": 39,
              "whip_value": 1.582,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.35,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.029,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 1.029,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.986,
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          "predicted_HR": {
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            "factor": 0.974,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9446,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_BAL@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_BAL@TOR

home

Max Scherzer

True

5.0

4/7

0/1

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 4.476,
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9564,
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      "k_percent": 17.6,
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      "woba": 0.334,
      "xwoba": 0.317,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
      "whiff_percent": 19.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
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        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.125,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.675,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.075
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 46.1,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
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            "Pitches": 837.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.9,
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            "BF": 20.4,
            "Pitches": 83.7
          },
          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.6259,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.82014,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19424
          }
        },
        "season": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 42.0,
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            "H": 58.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 272.0,
            "Pitches": 1098.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.1429,
            "BB": 1.9286,
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            "Pitches": 78.4286
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3564,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.43085,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76596,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20745
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.73,
        "predicted_H": 4.186,
        "predicted_BB": 2.131,
        "predicted_SO": 4.104,
        "predicted_HR": 0.71,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.9876,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2824
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.73,
          "final": 2.3933,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.186,
          "final": 2.7166,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.131,
          "final": 1.1482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.104,
          "final": 4.056,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.71,
          "final": 0.3825,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.9876,
          "final": 4.9876,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2824,
          "final": 1.2824,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 46.1,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 5.633093525179855,
        "WHIP": 1.3812949640287766,
        "K9": 7.3812949640287755,
        "HR9": 1.7482014388489204,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.138674898109452,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "453286",
      "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.5,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 3.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
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              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 3.0,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.5,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 2,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 3.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 589.0,
        "runs_allowed": 628.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2653,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0068,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2721,
        "offense_index": 0.8913,
        "defense_index": 1.0523,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0003
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.483,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 688.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1837,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4966,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6803,
        "offense_index": 1.0003,
        "defense_index": 0.9605,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1069
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1066,
        "offense_edge": -0.1087,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0003,
        "defense_strength": 0.0523,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0395,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0058,
        "run_prevention": 0.9895,
        "strikeout": 1.0032
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "453286",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "453286",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 201.0,
            "k_percent": 17.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.334,
            "xwoba": 0.317,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.9401,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3815,
            "whiff_percent": 19.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1683,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5729,
            "regression_edge": 0.4857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7286,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1233
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "453286",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.67251054611137,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263033136295,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.67251054611137,
                "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263033136295,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.6725,
              "release_spin_rate": 2262.3263,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1233,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.881,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1644,
          "sample_weight": 0.804,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.014,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9564,
          "walk_factor": 1.0113,
          "homer_factor": 1.0153,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.017,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "453286",
            "espn_id": 28976,
            "player_name": "Max Scherzer",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 710,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 710,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 474,
              "gs_value": 14.0,
              "gs_rank": 145,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 125,
              "era_value": 6.0319,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 316,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 84,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 62.2,
              "ip_rank": 214,
              "h_value": 58.0,
              "h_rank": 199,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 145,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 124,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 194,
              "k_value": 48.0,
              "k_rank": 304,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.8936167,
              "k_per_9_rank": 38,
              "whip_value": 1.3563,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.31,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0113,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0113,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0091,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0123,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9649,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_BAL@TOR.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_CHW@STL

away

Anthony Kay

True

5.0

4.0

-3

-1

5/5

3/1

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.468085106382978,
      "WHIP": 1.3617021276595744,
      "IP": 141.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.963,
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          "per_game": {
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          "per_game": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5137,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2671,
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "641743",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "641743",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0112
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "641743",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 84,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 84,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.07512309635388,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 84,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0751,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0284,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Anthony Kay",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.3617,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.63,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0284,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0284,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0577,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9686,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_CHW@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_CHW@STL

home

Matthew Liberatore

True

5.0

4.1

-2

3/6

1/3

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.964,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.067,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.0046,
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      "woba": 0.353,
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      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 850,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "player_id": "669461",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
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      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
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            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 5.0,
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            "SO": 6.8,
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            "WHIP": 1.2237,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.98684,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23684,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34211,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19737
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 35.0,
            "H": 56.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 218.0,
            "Pitches": 874.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.4,
            "R": 3.5,
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            "HR": 0.8,
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          },
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            "H_per_IP": 1.09091,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.20779,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15584
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        },
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            "SO": 144.0,
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            "Pitches": 2376.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 3.2857,
            "H": 5.5357,
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            "Pitches": 84.8571
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.03597,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17986
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 3.472,
        "predicted_H": 5.186,
        "predicted_BB": 1.437,
        "predicted_SO": 5.947,
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        "predicted_ERA": 6.2496,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3246
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "final": 4.281,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 62,
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        "K9": 10.870129870129869,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1751272946337912,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 1.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669461",
      "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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        "profile": {
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          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "release_spin_rate": 2373.4957,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0557,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3978,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3281,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0279,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0046,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0831,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669461",
            "espn_id": 41173,
            "player_name": "Matthew Liberatore",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 850,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 850,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 262,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 92,
              "era_value": 5.5683,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 146,
              "l_value": 14.0,
              "l_rank": 3,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 139.0,
              "ip_rank": 62,
              "h_value": 155.0,
              "h_rank": 11,
              "er_value": 86.0,
              "er_rank": 5,
              "hr_value": 25.0,
              "hr_rank": 14,
              "bb_value": 49.0,
              "bb_rank": 45,
              "k_value": 144.0,
              "k_rank": 37,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.323741,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16,
              "whip_value": 1.4676,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.2,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0831,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0046,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 88,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_CHW@STL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_CIN@MIL

away

Andrew Abbott

True

4.2

2.0

-8

7/9

1/0

3/0

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.431072210065645,
      "WHIP": 1.4245076586433258,
      "IP": 152.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.253,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.4035,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0343,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
      "walk_factor": 1.026,
      "homer_factor": 1.0444,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.5,
      "woba": 0.327,
      "xwoba": 0.338,
      "barrel_percent": 8.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 80,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 109.0,
            "Pitches": 405.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.8,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.8,
            "Pitches": 81.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2254,
            "WHIP": 1.6056,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80282,
            "H_per_IP": 1.22535,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38028,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88732,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21127
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 226.0,
            "Pitches": 870.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 87.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.4351,
            "WHIP": 1.461,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6039,
            "H_per_IP": 0.97403,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48701,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75974,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 152.1,
            "ER": 75.0,
            "R": 80.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 70.0,
            "SO": 120.0,
            "HR": 22.0,
            "BF": 664.0,
            "Pitches": 2628.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5862,
            "R": 2.7586,
            "H": 5.069,
            "BB": 2.4138,
            "SO": 4.1379,
            "HR": 0.7586,
            "BF": 22.8966,
            "Pitches": 90.6207
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4311,
            "WHIP": 1.4245,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49234,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96499,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45952,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.78775,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14442
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.186,
        "predicted_H": 5.267,
        "predicted_BB": 2.091,
        "predicted_SO": 4.141,
        "predicted_HR": 0.799,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.8173,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4928
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.186,
          "final": 4.3458,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.267,
          "final": 5.9813,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.091,
          "final": 1.6413,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.141,
          "final": 3.6707,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.799,
          "final": 1.294,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.8173,
          "final": 5.8173,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4928,
          "final": 1.4928,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 50,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 5.435064935064935,
        "WHIP": 1.4610389610389611,
        "K9": 6.837662337662338,
        "HR9": 1.051948051948052,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1183902816467781,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 3,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671096",
      "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4726,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 733.0,
        "run_differential": -122.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.8356,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1849,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0205,
        "offense_index": 0.9309,
        "defense_index": 0.8954,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1255
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.619,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 570.0,
        "run_differential": 172.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1701,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0476,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8776,
        "offense_index": 1.1228,
        "defense_index": 1.1593,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2793
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4048,
        "offense_edge": -0.0691,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1228,
        "defense_strength": -0.1046,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1593,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9758,
        "run_prevention": 1.0503,
        "strikeout": 0.978
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671096",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671096",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
            "k_percent": 18.1,
            "bb_percent": 10.5,
            "woba": 0.327,
            "xwoba": 0.338,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.4233,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0823,
            "whiff_percent": 22.4,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.437,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4457,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3714,
            "bb_edge": -0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1436
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671096",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 93,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 93,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.31119791616489,
              "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271060794216,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 93,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.31119791616489,
                "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271060794216,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.3112,
              "release_spin_rate": 2448.5271,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1436,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.0256,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.4035,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0343,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9629,
          "walk_factor": 1.026,
          "homer_factor": 1.0444,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671096",
            "espn_id": 4414528,
            "player_name": "Andrew Abbott",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 80,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 80,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 237,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 9,
              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 46,
              "era_value": 4.431,
              "era_rank": 44.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 104,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 18,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 152.1,
              "ip_rank": 39,
              "h_value": 147.0,
              "h_rank": 24,
              "er_value": 75.0,
              "er_rank": 19,
              "hr_value": 22.0,
              "hr_rank": 26,
              "bb_value": 70.0,
              "bb_rank": 6,
              "k_value": 120.0,
              "k_rank": 69,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.0897155,
              "k_per_9_rank": 47,
              "whip_value": 1.4245,
              "whip_rank": 48.0,
              "war_value": 1.87,
              "war_rank": 33.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0343,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0343,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.026,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0444,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9629,
            "adjusted": 4
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_CIN@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_CIN@MIL

home

Dustin May

True

4.2

6.0

-4

7/2

1/1

3/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.692695214105793,
      "WHIP": 1.322418136020151,
      "IP": 132.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.901,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.467,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1374,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0117,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
      "walk_factor": 0.976,
      "homer_factor": 1.0469,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.0,
      "woba": 0.317,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
      "whiff_percent": 22.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 337,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 80.0,
            "Pitches": 303.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 16.0,
            "Pitches": 60.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.2692,
            "WHIP": 1.6731,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26923,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40385,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17308
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 193.0,
            "Pitches": 741.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.3,
            "Pitches": 74.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9846,
            "WHIP": 1.4769,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55385,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99231,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96923,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 132.1,
            "ER": 69.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 130.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 127.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 562.0,
            "Pitches": 2151.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.5556,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 4.8148,
            "BB": 1.6667,
            "SO": 4.7037,
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            "Pitches": 79.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6927,
            "WHIP": 1.3224,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52141,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98237,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34005,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9597,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08312
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.622,
        "predicted_H": 4.5,
        "predicted_BB": 1.695,
        "predicted_SO": 3.894,
        "predicted_HR": 0.535,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7312,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5043
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.622,
          "final": 3.1952,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.5,
          "final": 5.54,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.695,
          "final": 1.4059,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.894,
          "final": 3.5221,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.535,
          "final": 0.7284,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7312,
          "final": 5.7312,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5043,
          "final": 1.5043,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.1,
        "ER": 24,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 4,
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        "K9": 8.723076923076922,
        "HR9": 0.8307692307692307,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0681118101183067,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669160",
      "player_name": "Dustin May",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 91,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.619,
        "runs_scored": 742.0,
        "runs_allowed": 570.0,
        "run_differential": 172.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1701,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0476,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8776,
        "offense_index": 1.1228,
        "defense_index": 1.1593,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.4,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2793
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4726,
        "runs_scored": 611.0,
        "runs_allowed": 733.0,
        "run_differential": -122.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.8356,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1849,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0205,
        "offense_index": 0.9309,
        "defense_index": 0.8954,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.0,
          "run_differential": -12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1255
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4048,
        "offense_edge": 0.1228,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0691,
        "defense_strength": 0.1593,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1046,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0237,
        "run_prevention": 0.9528,
        "strikeout": 1.0177
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669160",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669160",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 520.0,
            "k_percent": 22.6,
            "bb_percent": 8.0,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.319,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 44.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.0948,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5836,
            "whiff_percent": 22.8,
            "swing_percent": 47.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.251,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0114,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.9571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.3143,
            "bb_edge": 0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1479
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669160",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.51580093046432,
              "release_spin_rate": 2533.5004535710195,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.51580093046432,
                "release_spin_rate": 2533.5004535710195,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5158,
              "release_spin_rate": 2533.5005,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1479,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0563,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1374,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0117,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9909,
          "walk_factor": 0.976,
          "homer_factor": 1.0469,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669160",
            "espn_id": 40937,
            "player_name": "Dustin May",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 337,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 337,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 289,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 34,
              "era_value": 4.6926,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 104,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 132.1,
              "ip_rank": 76,
              "h_value": 130.0,
              "h_rank": 60,
              "er_value": 69.0,
              "er_rank": 38,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 147,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 60,
              "k_value": 127.0,
              "k_rank": 55,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.6372795,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.3224,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.23,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0117,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0117,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0469,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9909,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 4 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_CIN@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_CLE@MIN

away

Parker Messick

True

6.0

5.1

-2

6/3

1/2

9/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.532934131736527,
      "WHIP": 1.035928143712575,
      "IP": 167.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.964,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.595,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9494,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0309,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 0.8987,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.269,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 26.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 7,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 502.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 100.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3736,
            "WHIP": 1.022,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.26374,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79121,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23077,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21978,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 64.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 240.0,
            "Pitches": 963.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 24.0,
            "Pitches": 96.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.0656,
            "WHIP": 0.9508,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22951,
            "H_per_IP": 0.7377,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21311,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04918,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11475
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 167.0,
            "ER": 47.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 45.0,
            "SO": 173.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 663.0,
            "Pitches": 2607.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.6786,
            "R": 1.8214,
            "H": 4.5714,
            "BB": 1.6071,
            "SO": 6.1786,
            "HR": 0.5714,
            "BF": 23.6786,
            "Pitches": 93.1071
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5329,
            "WHIP": 1.0359,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28144,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76647,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26946,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03593,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09581
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.757,
        "predicted_H": 4.791,
        "predicted_BB": 1.519,
        "predicted_SO": 6.574,
        "predicted_HR": 0.662,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6353,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0517
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.757,
          "final": 2.6856,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.791,
          "final": 5.2915,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.519,
          "final": 1.3041,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 6.574,
          "final": 7.5784,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.662,
          "final": 0.8019,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6353,
          "final": 2.6353,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0517,
          "final": 1.0517,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 64,
        "HR": 7,
        "ERA": 2.0655737704918034,
        "WHIP": 0.9508196721311475,
        "K9": 9.442622950819672,
        "HR9": 1.0327868852459017,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7265670434096055,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 9.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 9,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "800048",
      "player_name": "Parker Messick",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 9.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 9.0,
              "after": 9.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 9.0,
            "after": 9.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5034,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": -16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1088,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.068,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1769,
        "offense_index": 0.9049,
        "defense_index": 1.0763,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0104
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4726,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 728.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.363,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6233,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9863,
        "offense_index": 1.0284,
        "defense_index": 0.9016,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0677
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0573,
        "offense_edge": -0.0951,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0284,
        "defense_strength": 0.0763,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0984,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0034,
        "run_prevention": 0.994,
        "strikeout": 0.9994
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "800048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "800048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 586.0,
            "k_percent": 26.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.269,
            "xwoba": 0.271,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.143,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.3266,
            "whiff_percent": 26.3,
            "swing_percent": 48.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8641,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4486,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.7429,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1857,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0023
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "800048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.91564892850265,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.092261917475,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.91564892850265,
                "release_spin_rate": 2099.092261917475,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9156,
              "release_spin_rate": 2099.0923,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0023,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0162,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.595,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9494,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0309,
          "walk_factor": 0.952,
          "homer_factor": 0.8987,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "800048",
            "espn_id": 4619898,
            "player_name": "Parker Messick",
            "team": "CLE",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 7,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 7,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 262,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 31,
              "era_value": 2.5329,
              "era_rank": 5.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 23,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 167.0,
              "ip_rank": 14,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 65,
              "er_value": 47.0,
              "er_rank": 121,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 84,
              "bb_value": 45.0,
              "bb_rank": 60,
              "k_value": 173.0,
              "k_rank": 16,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.323354,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.0359,
              "whip_rank": 7.0,
              "war_value": 5.42,
              "war_rank": 6.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9494,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9494,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.952,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.8987,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0309,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 9,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_CLE@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_CLE@MIN

home

Taj Bradley

True

5.2

6.0

-3

3/1

1/4

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.953974895397489,
      "WHIP": 1.2615062761506275,
      "IP": 159.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.69,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0001,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0411,
      "walk_factor": 1.018,
      "homer_factor": 1.076,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.3,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.305,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 22,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 7.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8795,
            "WHIP": 1.3373,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54217,
            "H_per_IP": 0.86747,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46988,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3012,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21687
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.2,
            "ER": 29.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 244.0,
            "Pitches": 956.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.9,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6059,
            "WHIP": 1.3412,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51176,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49412,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14118
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 159.1,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 133.0,
            "BB": 68.0,
            "SO": 184.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 675.0,
            "Pitches": 2701.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.75,
            "BB": 2.4286,
            "SO": 6.5714,
            "HR": 0.8214,
            "BF": 24.1071,
            "Pitches": 96.4643
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.954,
            "WHIP": 1.2615,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43933,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83473,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42678,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.15481,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14435
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.889,
        "predicted_H": 4.94,
        "predicted_BB": 2.577,
        "predicted_SO": 6.693,
        "predicted_HR": 0.972,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5877,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3264
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.889,
          "final": 2.935,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.94,
          "final": 4.1368,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.577,
          "final": 1.9241,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 6.693,
          "final": 5.5781,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.972,
          "final": 0.5696,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5877,
          "final": 4.5877,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3264,
          "final": 1.3264,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.2,
        "ER": 29,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 66,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.605882352941176,
        "WHIP": 1.3411764705882352,
        "K9": 10.482352941176469,
        "HR9": 1.2705882352941176,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.022110678896587,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "671737",
      "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 77,
        "win_pct": 0.4726,
        "runs_scored": 675.0,
        "runs_allowed": 728.0,
        "run_differential": -53.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.363,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6233,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9863,
        "offense_index": 1.0284,
        "defense_index": 0.9016,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0677
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5034,
        "runs_scored": 598.0,
        "runs_allowed": 614.0,
        "run_differential": -16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1088,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.068,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1769,
        "offense_index": 0.9049,
        "defense_index": 1.0763,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0104
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0573,
        "offense_edge": 0.0284,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0951,
        "defense_strength": -0.0984,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0763,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9986,
        "run_prevention": 0.9975,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "671737",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "671737",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 598.0,
            "k_percent": 27.3,
            "bb_percent": 10.1,
            "woba": 0.305,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 45.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9167,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.9342,
            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2003,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3907,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1666
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "671737",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.84991659997009,
              "release_spin_rate": 2176.795721962065,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.84991659997009,
                "release_spin_rate": 2176.795721962065,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.8499,
              "release_spin_rate": 2176.7957,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1666,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.1899,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0001,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0411,
          "walk_factor": 1.018,
          "homer_factor": 1.076,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "671737",
            "espn_id": 42480,
            "player_name": "Taj Bradley",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 22,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 22,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 262,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 34,
              "era_value": 3.9539,
              "era_rank": 34.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 23,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 113,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 159.1,
              "ip_rank": 24,
              "h_value": 133.0,
              "h_rank": 53,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 31,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 21,
              "bb_value": 68.0,
              "bb_rank": 7,
              "k_value": 184.0,
              "k_rank": 11,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.393306,
              "k_per_9_rank": 12,
              "whip_value": 1.2615,
              "whip_rank": 35.0,
              "war_value": 3.4,
              "war_rank": 19.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.018,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.076,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0411,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_CLE@MIN.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_COL@DET

away

Mason Adams

True

4.1

5.0

-1

4/2

3/3

2/5

Last 10 before this game (3 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.951219512195122,
      "WHIP": 1.6097560975609757,
      "IP": 13.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 3,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.556,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.556,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3374,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0287,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0147,
      "walk_factor": 1.009,
      "homer_factor": 1.1218,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 28.8,
      "bb_percent": 10.2,
      "woba": 0.41,
      "xwoba": 0.369,
      "barrel_percent": 13.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 61.1,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 268,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
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            "factor": 1.0548,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0066,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 91,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 3 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_COL@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_COL@DET

home

Framber Valdez

True

6.0

-2

3/6

3/2

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.167019027484144,
      "WHIP": 1.3636363636363638,
      "IP": 157.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.631,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2541,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0216,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9423,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 1.0172,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.319,
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      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
      "whiff_percent": 19.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 150,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 130.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 95.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1538,
            "WHIP": 1.3516,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46154,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.52747,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0989
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.0,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9474,
            "WHIP": 1.3333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4386,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94737,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38596,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7193,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07018
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 157.2,
            "ER": 73.0,
            "R": 81.0,
            "H": 157.0,
            "BB": 58.0,
            "SO": 119.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 688.0,
            "Pitches": 2501.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.6071,
            "R": 2.8929,
            "H": 5.6071,
            "BB": 2.0714,
            "SO": 4.25,
            "HR": 0.5357,
            "BF": 24.5714,
            "Pitches": 89.3214
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.167,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.463,
            "H_per_IP": 0.99577,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36786,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75476,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09514
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.696,
        "predicted_H": 5.552,
        "predicted_BB": 2.319,
        "predicted_SO": 4.007,
        "predicted_HR": 0.567,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1512,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3468
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.696,
          "final": 2.4078,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.552,
          "final": 4.4954,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.319,
          "final": 2.6009,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.007,
          "final": 4.8321,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.567,
          "final": 0.7463,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1512,
          "final": 4.1512,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3468,
          "final": 1.3468,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 57.0,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 22,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 3.9473684210526314,
        "WHIP": 1.3333333333333333,
        "K9": 6.473684210526316,
        "HR9": 0.631578947368421,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9478317831277533,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664285",
      "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 146,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4589,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 586.0,
        "run_differential": 55.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3767,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3904,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0137,
        "offense_index": 0.9766,
        "defense_index": 1.12,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0238
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 91,
        "win_pct": 0.3767,
        "runs_scored": 686.0,
        "runs_allowed": 840.0,
        "run_differential": -154.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0548,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6986,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7534,
        "offense_index": 1.0452,
        "defense_index": 0.7814,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.3039
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2801,
        "offense_edge": -0.0234,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0452,
        "defense_strength": 0.12,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2186,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.013,
        "run_prevention": 0.9812,
        "strikeout": 1.0048
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664285",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664285",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 611.0,
            "k_percent": 17.3,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.5149,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7251,
            "whiff_percent": 19.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.5321,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7714,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0962
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664285",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.15669735231863,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.472783096767,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.15669735231863,
                "release_spin_rate": 2286.472783096767,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1567,
              "release_spin_rate": 2286.4728,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0962,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.6874,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.2541,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0216,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9423,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 1.0172,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664285",
            "espn_id": 36581,
            "player_name": "Framber Valdez",
            "team": "DET",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 150,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 150,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 262,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 17,
              "era_value": 4.167,
              "era_rank": 41.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 42,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 18,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 157.2,
              "ip_rank": 28,
              "h_value": 157.0,
              "h_rank": 10,
              "er_value": 73.0,
              "er_rank": 24,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 91,
              "bb_value": 58.0,
              "bb_rank": 17,
              "k_value": 119.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.792812,
              "k_per_9_rank": 69,
              "whip_value": 1.3636,
              "whip_rank": 45.0,
              "war_value": 1.24,
              "war_rank": 45.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0216,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0216,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0172,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9423,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 106,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_COL@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_HOU@TB

away

Miguel Ullola

True

3.0

1.0

-6

-2

2/0

7/0

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
      "WHIP": 0.8571428571428571,
      "IP": 7.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 1.4,
      "recent_avg_IP": 1.4,
      "last_start_IP": 0.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1406,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.988,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0435,
      "walk_factor": 0.9505,
      "homer_factor": 1.0843,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 37.0,
      "bb_percent": 3.7,
      "woba": 0.29,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 18.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 426,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.412,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2202,
        "prior_weight": 0.7798
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "699044",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 106.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 21.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14286,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28571
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 106.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 21.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14286,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28571
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 7.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 10.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 27.0,
            "Pitches": 106.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.1,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 1.0,
            "BB": 0.2,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 5.4,
            "Pitches": 21.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8571,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.14286,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.42857,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.28571
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.661,
        "predicted_H": 3.124,
        "predicted_BB": 1.093,
        "predicted_SO": 3.577,
        "predicted_HR": 0.605,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.379,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2355
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6795,
      "form_weight": 0.3205,
      "form_reliability": 0.2202,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 1.412,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.2202,
        "prior_weight": 0.7798
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 3.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.661,
          "final": 1.8913,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.124,
          "final": 2.3603,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.093,
          "final": 1.7093,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 3.577,
          "final": 5.9028,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.605,
          "final": 0.1939,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.379,
          "final": 4.379,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2355,
          "final": 1.2355,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 7.0,
        "ER": 3,
        "H": 5,
        "BB": 1,
        "SO": 10,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.857142857142857,
        "WHIP": 0.8571428571428571,
        "K9": 12.857142857142858,
        "HR9": 2.5714285714285716,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9829541760024539,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 1.412,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.2202,
          "prior_weight": 0.7798
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "699044",
      "player_name": "Miguel Ullola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "delta": -1.0,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5102,
        "runs_scored": 662.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2721,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5034,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7755,
        "offense_index": 1.0018,
        "defense_index": 0.9414,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0104
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5959,
        "runs_scored": 662.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3836,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5342,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1507,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
        "defense_index": 1.0831,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1284
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.118,
        "offense_edge": 0.0018,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "defense_strength": -0.0586,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0831,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9932,
        "run_prevention": 1.0131,
        "strikeout": 0.9958
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "699044",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "699044",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 23.0,
            "k_percent": 37.0,
            "bb_percent": 3.7,
            "woba": 0.29,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 18.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.6813,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.7701,
            "whiff_percent": 26.9,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0424,
            "command_and_miss": 1.3343,
            "regression_edge": -0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -2.5,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2714,
            "bb_edge": 1.375,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1883
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "699044",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 22,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 22,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.23747941370223,
              "release_spin_rate": 2485.5872364953884,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 22,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 93.23747941370223,
                "release_spin_rate": 2485.5872364953884,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.2375,
              "release_spin_rate": 2485.5872,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1883,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.3449,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1406,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.988,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0435,
          "walk_factor": 0.9505,
          "homer_factor": 1.0843,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "699044",
            "espn_id": 5124163,
            "player_name": "Miguel Ullola",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 426,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 426,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 633,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 365,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 3.8571,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 535,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 573,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 7.0,
              "ip_rank": 677,
              "h_value": 5.0,
              "h_rank": 721,
              "er_value": 3.0,
              "er_rank": 710,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 525,
              "bb_value": 1.0,
              "bb_rank": 761,
              "k_value": 10.0,
              "k_rank": 594,
              "k_per_9_value": 12.857142,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 0.8571,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.07,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9777,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0379,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0196,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 3.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 13,
      "Pitches": 60,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_HOU@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_HOU@TB

home

Drew Rasmussen

True

6.0

7.0

-2

4/8

1/0

7/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.876086956521739,
      "WHIP": 0.9065217391304348,
      "IP": 153.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.679,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.5271,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9552,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
      "walk_factor": 0.906,
      "homer_factor": 0.9264,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.1,
      "bb_percent": 4.5,
      "woba": 0.245,
      "xwoba": 0.274,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 20,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 153.1,
      "season_ERA": 2.876,
      "season_WHIP": 0.907,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656876",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4138,
            "WHIP": 0.8966,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37931,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72414,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17241,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89655,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06897
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 42.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 895.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.2,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 89.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0355,
            "WHIP": 0.9231,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33728,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74556,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17751,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.06509,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05325
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 153.1,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 51.0,
            "H": 112.0,
            "BB": 27.0,
            "SO": 156.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 598.0,
            "Pitches": 2378.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8148,
            "R": 1.8889,
            "H": 4.1481,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 5.7778,
            "HR": 0.5185,
            "BF": 22.1481,
            "Pitches": 88.0741
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8761,
            "WHIP": 0.9065,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31957,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73043,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17609,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01739,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0913
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.151,
        "predicted_H": 4.405,
        "predicted_BB": 1.175,
        "predicted_SO": 5.568,
        "predicted_HR": 0.459,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3851,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9757
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.151,
          "final": 2.5042,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.405,
          "final": 4.2365,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.175,
          "final": 1.1022,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.568,
          "final": 6.1637,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.459,
          "final": 0.6841,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3851,
          "final": 3.3851,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9757,
          "final": 0.9757,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 42,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 3.0355029585798814,
        "WHIP": 0.923076923076923,
        "K9": 9.585798816568047,
        "HR9": 0.47928994082840237,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8349905083431587,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 7.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656876",
      "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5959,
        "runs_scored": 662.0,
        "runs_allowed": 606.0,
        "run_differential": 56.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3836,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5342,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1507,
        "offense_index": 1.0086,
        "defense_index": 1.0831,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1284
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5102,
        "runs_scored": 662.0,
        "runs_allowed": 702.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2721,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5034,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7755,
        "offense_index": 1.0018,
        "defense_index": 0.9414,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0104
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.118,
        "offense_edge": 0.0086,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0018,
        "defense_strength": 0.0831,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0586,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0071,
        "run_prevention": 0.9861,
        "strikeout": 1.0034
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 529.0,
            "k_percent": 26.1,
            "bb_percent": 4.5,
            "woba": 0.245,
            "xwoba": 0.274,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5647,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5162,
            "whiff_percent": 24.9,
            "swing_percent": 50.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.8396,
            "command_and_miss": 0.4936,
            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": 1.175,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1429
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.42635744843004,
              "release_spin_rate": 2377.5376841860666,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.42635744843004,
                "release_spin_rate": 2377.5376841860666,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.4264,
              "release_spin_rate": 2377.5377,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1429,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0205,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.5271,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9552,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0229,
          "walk_factor": 0.906,
          "homer_factor": 0.9264,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656876",
            "espn_id": 42584,
            "player_name": "Drew Rasmussen",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 20,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 20,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 289,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 16.0,
              "qs_rank": 15,
              "era_value": 2.876,
              "era_rank": 12.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 6,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 136,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 153.1,
              "ip_rank": 37,
              "h_value": 112.0,
              "h_rank": 96,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 108,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 109,
              "bb_value": 27.0,
              "bb_rank": 194,
              "k_value": 156.0,
              "k_rank": 27,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.156522,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 0.9065,
              "whip_rank": 3.0,
              "war_value": 3.55,
              "war_rank": 18.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9552,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9552,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.906,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9264,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0229,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 104,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_HOU@TB.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_KC@BOS

away

Seth Lugo

True

5.0

-2

8/7

3/2

3/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.037735849056604,
      "WHIP": 1.440251572327044,
      "IP": 159.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.483,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.5174,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.044,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.936,
      "walk_factor": 0.964,
      "homer_factor": 1.0604,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.4,
      "woba": 0.351,
      "xwoba": 0.344,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 694,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 459.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.6,
            "R": 4.6,
            "H": 7.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 91.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.5068,
            "WHIP": 1.8082,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.94521,
            "H_per_IP": 1.60274,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20548,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61644,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08219
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.1,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 62.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 916.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 3.3,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9632,
            "WHIP": 1.454,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66258,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1411,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31288,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.60736,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05521
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 159.0,
            "ER": 89.0,
            "R": 97.0,
            "H": 178.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 119.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 685.0,
            "Pitches": 2615.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.069,
            "R": 3.3448,
            "H": 6.1379,
            "BB": 1.7586,
            "SO": 4.1034,
            "HR": 0.6207,
            "BF": 23.6207,
            "Pitches": 90.1724
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0377,
            "WHIP": 1.4403,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55975,
            "H_per_IP": 1.1195,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32075,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74843,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.764,
        "predicted_H": 6.65,
        "predicted_BB": 1.451,
        "predicted_SO": 3.527,
        "predicted_HR": 0.459,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.5702,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5712
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.764,
          "final": 3.4491,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 6.65,
          "final": 7.2064,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.451,
          "final": 2.0894,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.527,
          "final": 3.3098,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.459,
          "final": 0.2698,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 6.5702,
          "final": 6.5702,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5712,
          "final": 1.5712,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 54.1,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 62,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 5.96319018404908,
        "WHIP": 1.4539877300613497,
        "K9": 5.466257668711657,
        "HR9": 0.49693251533742333,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1776280913830541,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607625",
      "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4422,
        "runs_scored": 629.0,
        "runs_allowed": 717.0,
        "run_differential": -88.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5986,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2789,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8776,
        "offense_index": 0.9518,
        "defense_index": 0.9217,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1924
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5442,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 570.0,
        "run_differential": 82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5578,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4354,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8776,
        "offense_index": 0.9866,
        "defense_index": 1.1593,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1408
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.3332,
        "offense_edge": -0.0482,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0134,
        "defense_strength": -0.0783,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1593,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9849,
        "run_prevention": 1.0223,
        "strikeout": 0.9911
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607625",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607625",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 614.0,
            "k_percent": 17.4,
            "bb_percent": 7.4,
            "woba": 0.351,
            "xwoba": 0.344,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.228,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5716,
            "whiff_percent": 18.4,
            "swing_percent": 46.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6772,
            "command_and_miss": -0.5357,
            "regression_edge": 0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.9429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 0.45,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2364
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607625",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.65388563891052,
              "release_spin_rate": 2512.4854293940252,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.65388563891052,
                "release_spin_rate": 2512.4854293940252,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.6539,
              "release_spin_rate": 2512.4854,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2364,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6885,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.5174,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.044,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.936,
          "walk_factor": 0.964,
          "homer_factor": 1.0604,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "607625",
            "espn_id": 34873,
            "player_name": "Seth Lugo",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 694,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 694,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 237,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 9,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 25,
              "era_value": 5.0377,
              "era_rank": 50.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 104,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 60,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 159.0,
              "ip_rank": 26,
              "h_value": 178.0,
              "h_rank": 4,
              "er_value": 89.0,
              "er_rank": 2,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 58,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 37,
              "k_value": 119.0,
              "k_rank": 72,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.7358494,
              "k_per_9_rank": 74,
              "whip_value": 1.4402,
              "whip_rank": 49.0,
              "war_value": -0.28,
              "war_rank": 51.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.044,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.044,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.964,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0604,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.936,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_KC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_KC@BOS

home

Sonny Gray

True

6.0

3/6

1/2

8/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.688053097345133,
      "WHIP": 1.1615044247787611,
      "IP": 150.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.795,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1304,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9889,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9785,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.298,
      "xwoba": 0.297,
      "barrel_percent": 6.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 14,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 29.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.3226,
            "WHIP": 1.1935,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.25806,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93548,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25806,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.93548,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09677
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 59.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 53.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 252.0,
            "Pitches": 904.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.9,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 5.3,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 25.2,
            "Pitches": 90.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8033,
            "WHIP": 1.2459,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31148,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96721,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27869,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86885,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08197
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.2,
            "ER": 45.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 135.0,
            "BB": 40.0,
            "SO": 135.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 611.0,
            "Pitches": 2205.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.7308,
            "R": 1.7692,
            "H": 5.1923,
            "BB": 1.5385,
            "SO": 5.1923,
            "HR": 0.5769,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 84.8077
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6881,
            "WHIP": 1.1615,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29867,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89602,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26549,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89602,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09956
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.943,
        "predicted_H": 5.73,
        "predicted_BB": 1.721,
        "predicted_SO": 5.524,
        "predicted_HR": 0.613,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.8805,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2275
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.943,
          "final": 2.385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.73,
          "final": 4.5885,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.721,
          "final": 1.4195,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.524,
          "final": 6.5593,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.613,
          "final": 0.7748,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.8805,
          "final": 2.8805,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2275,
          "final": 1.2275,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 59,
        "BB": 17,
        "SO": 53,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.80327868852459,
        "WHIP": 1.2459016393442623,
        "K9": 7.819672131147541,
        "HR9": 0.7377049180327869,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 6,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8169358958686219,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 1
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "543243",
      "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BOS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BOS",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 67,
        "win_pct": 0.5442,
        "runs_scored": 652.0,
        "runs_allowed": 570.0,
        "run_differential": 82.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.5578,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4354,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8776,
        "offense_index": 0.9866,
        "defense_index": 1.1593,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1408
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 65,
        "losses": 82,
        "win_pct": 0.4422,
        "runs_scored": 629.0,
        "runs_allowed": 717.0,
        "run_differential": -88.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5986,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2789,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8776,
        "offense_index": 0.9518,
        "defense_index": 0.9217,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": -15.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1924
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3332,
        "offense_edge": -0.0134,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0482,
        "defense_strength": 0.1593,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0783,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.3
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.02,
        "run_prevention": 0.9597,
        "strikeout": 1.0139
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "543243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "543243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 531.0,
            "k_percent": 22.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.5,
            "woba": 0.298,
            "xwoba": 0.297,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9823,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8071,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2185,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0614,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1353
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "543243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.45986278978744,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.7368281686063,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.45986278978744,
                "release_spin_rate": 2501.7368281686063,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.4599,
              "release_spin_rate": 2501.7368,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1353,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.9661,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1304,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9889,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9914,
          "walk_factor": 0.946,
          "homer_factor": 0.9785,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "543243",
            "espn_id": 32082,
            "player_name": "Sonny Gray",
            "team": "BOS",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 14,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 14,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 306,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 53,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 10,
              "era_value": 2.688,
              "era_rank": 8.0,
              "w_value": 17.0,
              "w_rank": 1,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 186,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 150.2,
              "ip_rank": 43,
              "h_value": 135.0,
              "h_rank": 48,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 128,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 91,
              "bb_value": 40.0,
              "bb_rank": 85,
              "k_value": 135.0,
              "k_rank": 49,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.064159,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.1615,
              "whip_rank": 23.0,
              "war_value": 4.03,
              "war_rank": 13.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9889,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9889,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9785,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9914,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_KC@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_LAA@WAS

away

Yusei Kikuchi

True

5.0

4.0

-3

0/3

3/4

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.959183673469388,
      "WHIP": 1.469387755102041,
      "IP": 49.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.9,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.2294,
      "sample_weight": 0.568,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0195,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0071,
      "walk_factor": 0.9955,
      "homer_factor": 1.0637,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.7,
      "bb_percent": 8.8,
      "woba": 0.353,
      "xwoba": 0.346,
      "barrel_percent": 9.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.5,
      "whiff_percent": 26.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 300,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.5625,
        "last_10": 0.43749999999999994
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 10.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6667,
        "prior_weight": 0.3333
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "579328",
      "report_date": "20260911",
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        },
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        "predicted_ER": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
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    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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      "player_id": "579328",
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.3836,
        "runs_scored": 591.0,
        "runs_allowed": 664.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0479,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5479,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 148,
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        "runs_allowed": 756.0,
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        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1081,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1081,
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "579328",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "579328",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 79.9767,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -1.0,
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            "bb_edge": 0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.03
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "579328",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.33948369974534,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 70,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "espn_rank": 300,
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_LAA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_LAA@WAS

home

Cade Cavalli

True

5.2

6.0

3/3

1/2

5/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.61672486815726,
                "release_spin_rate": 2232.265396590468,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.6167,
              "release_spin_rate": 2232.2654,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0975,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.6966,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2657,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9774,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0451,
          "walk_factor": 0.954,
          "homer_factor": 1.0066,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "676917",
            "espn_id": 4308037,
            "player_name": "Cade Cavalli",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 24,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 24,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 219,
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": 2,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 10,
              "era_value": 3.1197,
              "era_rank": 16.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 17,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 136,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 158.2,
              "ip_rank": 27,
              "h_value": 141.0,
              "h_rank": 32,
              "er_value": 55.0,
              "er_rank": 90,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 70,
              "bb_value": 46.0,
              "bb_rank": 56,
              "k_value": 185.0,
              "k_rank": 10,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.493698,
              "k_per_9_rank": 10,
              "whip_value": 1.1785,
              "whip_rank": 25.0,
              "war_value": 3.33,
              "war_rank": 20.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9774,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9774,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.954,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0066,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0451,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_LAA@WAS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_LAD@MIA

away

Blake Snell

True

5.2

-1

4/4

1/2

6/8

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.96875,
      "WHIP": 1.09375,
      "IP": 32.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.8,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6326,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9462,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0555,
      "walk_factor": 1.0126,
      "homer_factor": 0.8766,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 32.6,
      "bb_percent": 10.6,
      "woba": 0.237,
      "xwoba": 0.226,
      "barrel_percent": 1.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 13.5,
      "whiff_percent": 36.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 159,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
        "last_10": 0.1346153846153846
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 15.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 467.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 3.0,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 7.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 93.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.931,
            "WHIP": 0.931,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.10345,
            "H_per_IP": 0.51724,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41379,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31034,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 132.0,
            "Pitches": 544.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.1667,
            "R": 1.3333,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 7.1667,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 90.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9688,
            "WHIP": 1.0938,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 6,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.0,
            "ER": 7.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 21.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 43.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 132.0,
            "Pitches": 544.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 1.1667,
            "R": 1.3333,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 2.3333,
            "SO": 7.1667,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 90.6667
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9688,
            "WHIP": 1.0938,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21875,
            "H_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.34375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.656,
        "predicted_H": 4.142,
        "predicted_BB": 2.233,
        "predicted_SO": 6.459,
        "predicted_HR": 0.376,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.6413,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1299
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.542,
      "form_weight": 0.458,
      "form_reliability": 0.5455,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.656,
          "final": 1.8425,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.142,
          "final": 4.065,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.233,
          "final": 1.5647,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.459,
          "final": 4.5841,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.376,
          "final": 0.7142,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.6413,
          "final": 2.6413,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1299,
          "final": 1.1299,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 32.0,
        "ER": 7,
        "H": 21,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 43,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 1.96875,
        "WHIP": 1.09375,
        "K9": 12.09375,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 6,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7192476274259989,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
          "prior_weight": 0.4545
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605483",
      "player_name": "Blake Snell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 3.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 3.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6096,
        "runs_scored": 728.0,
        "runs_allowed": 559.0,
        "run_differential": 169.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1575,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9863,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8288,
        "offense_index": 1.1092,
        "defense_index": 1.1741,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3398
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4898,
        "runs_scored": 654.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0476,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.449,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4014,
        "offense_index": 0.9897,
        "defense_index": 1.0214,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0728
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.4126,
        "offense_edge": 0.1092,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0103,
        "defense_strength": 0.1741,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0214,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0221,
        "run_prevention": 0.9603,
        "strikeout": 1.0132
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605483",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605483",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 63.0,
            "k_percent": 32.6,
            "bb_percent": 10.6,
            "woba": 0.237,
            "xwoba": 0.226,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 27.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 1.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 13.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 70.8001,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 90.5802,
            "whiff_percent": 36.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.9158,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1614,
            "regression_edge": 0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 2.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 1.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 2.5,
            "whiff_edge": 1.5714,
            "bb_edge": -0.35,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0068
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605483",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.75331649831651,
              "release_spin_rate": 2378.2219095719097,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.75331649831651,
                "release_spin_rate": 2378.2219095719097,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7533,
              "release_spin_rate": 2378.2219,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0068,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0487,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6326,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9462,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0555,
          "walk_factor": 1.0126,
          "homer_factor": 0.8766,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605483",
            "espn_id": 33748,
            "player_name": "Blake Snell",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 159,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 159,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 610,
              "gs_value": 6.0,
              "gs_rank": 206,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 125,
              "era_value": 1.9687,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 244,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 427,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 32.0,
              "ip_rank": 422,
              "h_value": 21.0,
              "h_rank": 498,
              "er_value": 7.0,
              "er_rank": 599,
              "hr_value": 0.0,
              "hr_rank": 742,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 400,
              "k_value": 43.0,
              "k_rank": 333,
              "k_per_9_value": 12.09375,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.0937,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.18,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9758,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9758,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0057,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9445,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.025,
            "adjusted": 7
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_LAD@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_LAD@MIA

home

Ryan Gusto

True

4.1

6.0

2/5

2/3

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.230414746543779,
      "WHIP": 1.4101382488479264,
      "IP": 72.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 20,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.2,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3403,
      "sample_weight": 0.948,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0289,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9626,
      "walk_factor": 0.9545,
      "homer_factor": 1.0716,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.334,
      "xwoba": 0.332,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 43.3,
      "whiff_percent": 20.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 241,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 20,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.1,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 106.0,
            "Pitches": 390.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 78.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0857,
            "WHIP": 1.5857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34286,
            "H_per_IP": 1.24286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34286,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12857
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 48.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 190.0,
            "Pitches": 693.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.0,
            "Pitches": 69.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7099,
            "WHIP": 1.374,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41221,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09924,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27481,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84733,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1374
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 20,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 72.1,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 80.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 322.0,
            "Pitches": 1178.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 1.7,
            "R": 1.85,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 3.1,
            "HR": 0.45,
            "BF": 16.1,
            "Pitches": 58.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2304,
            "WHIP": 1.4101,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47005,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10599,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30415,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12442
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.802,
        "predicted_H": 4.897,
        "predicted_BB": 1.404,
        "predicted_SO": 3.719,
        "predicted_HR": 0.583,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7318,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4497
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4345,
      "form_weight": 0.5655,
      "form_reliability": 0.8,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 20.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8,
        "prior_weight": 0.2
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.802,
          "final": 1.4535,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.897,
          "final": 3.6383,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.404,
          "final": 1.663,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.719,
          "final": 4.2756,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.583,
          "final": 0.7642,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7318,
          "final": 3.7318,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4497,
          "final": 1.4497,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 48,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 37,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.709923664122137,
        "WHIP": 1.3740458015267174,
        "K9": 7.6259541984732815,
        "HR9": 1.2366412213740456,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9221370596779073,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 20.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8,
          "prior_weight": 0.2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687473",
      "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0538,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0538,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4898,
        "runs_scored": 654.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": 7.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0476,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.449,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4014,
        "offense_index": 0.9897,
        "defense_index": 1.0214,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0728
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6096,
        "runs_scored": 728.0,
        "runs_allowed": 559.0,
        "run_differential": 169.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1575,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9863,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8288,
        "offense_index": 1.1092,
        "defense_index": 1.1741,
        "current_streak": "W7",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 21.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.3398
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4126,
        "offense_edge": -0.0103,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1092,
        "defense_strength": 0.0214,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1741,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9798,
        "run_prevention": 1.036,
        "strikeout": 0.9789
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687473",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687473",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 237.0,
            "k_percent": 19.3,
            "bb_percent": 6.8,
            "woba": 0.334,
            "xwoba": 0.332,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 43.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.963,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1969,
            "whiff_percent": 20.8,
            "swing_percent": 49.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5222,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2636,
            "regression_edge": 0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.7714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.6,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0464
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687473",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 65,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 65,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.04680825756294,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.111446962792,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 65,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.04680825756294,
                "release_spin_rate": 2247.111446962792,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0468,
              "release_spin_rate": 2247.1114,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0464,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3313,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3403,
          "sample_weight": 0.948,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0289,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9626,
          "walk_factor": 0.9545,
          "homer_factor": 1.0716,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687473",
            "espn_id": 5131986,
            "player_name": "Ryan Gusto",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 241,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 241,
              "gp_value": 20.0,
              "gp_rank": 395,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 136,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 177,
              "era_value": 4.2304,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 412,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 186,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 272,
              "ip_value": 72.1,
              "ip_rank": 177,
              "h_value": 80.0,
              "h_rank": 149,
              "er_value": 34.0,
              "er_rank": 172,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 176,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 262,
              "k_value": 62.0,
              "k_rank": 217,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.714286,
              "k_per_9_rank": 33,
              "whip_value": 1.4101,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.58,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0274,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9569,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0679,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9645,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 17,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_LAD@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_NYM@NYY

away

Nolan McLean

True

6.0

5.0

-3

5/10

4/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.061855670103093,
      "WHIP": 1.1443298969072166,
      "IP": 161.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.774,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.2691,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9771,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 0.9595,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.7,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.284,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
      "whiff_percent": 24.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 37,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "690997",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 478.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 3.2,
            "BB": 3.4,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 95.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.1613,
            "WHIP": 1.0645,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12903,
            "H_per_IP": 0.51613,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.54839,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74194,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03226
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 249.0,
            "Pitches": 958.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.3,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 24.9,
            "Pitches": 95.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9392,
            "WHIP": 1.1934,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.21547,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72928,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46409,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01105,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08287
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 161.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 67.0,
            "H": 120.0,
            "BB": 65.0,
            "SO": 179.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 671.0,
            "Pitches": 2649.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9643,
            "R": 2.3929,
            "H": 4.2857,
            "BB": 2.3214,
            "SO": 6.3929,
            "HR": 0.5357,
            "BF": 23.9643,
            "Pitches": 94.6071
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0619,
            "WHIP": 1.1443,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34021,
            "H_per_IP": 0.74227,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40206,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10722,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09278
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.501,
        "predicted_H": 4.17,
        "predicted_BB": 2.863,
        "predicted_SO": 5.548,
        "predicted_HR": 0.455,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.2246,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1584
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.501,
          "final": 1.7076,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.17,
          "final": 4.5136,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.863,
          "final": 3.3337,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.548,
          "final": 5.7351,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.455,
          "final": 0.6806,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.2246,
          "final": 2.2246,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1584,
          "final": 1.1584,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 13,
        "H": 44,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 61,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 1.9392265193370166,
        "WHIP": 1.1933701657458564,
        "K9": 9.099447513812155,
        "HR9": 0.7458563535911603,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 9,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "games": 146,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 627.0,
        "runs_allowed": 667.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.274,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2945,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5685,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 84,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5753,
        "runs_scored": 667.0,
        "runs_allowed": 536.0,
        "run_differential": 131.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8973,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5685,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6712,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.2,
          "run_differential": 29.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2438
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0447,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0163,
        "defense_strength": -0.016,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.2245,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9894,
        "run_prevention": 1.016,
        "strikeout": 0.9916
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "690997",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "690997",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 589.0,
            "k_percent": 26.7,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.284,
            "xwoba": 0.295,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.3446,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5899,
            "whiff_percent": 24.1,
            "swing_percent": 43.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.4195,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2321,
            "regression_edge": -0.3143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1286,
            "bb_edge": -0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0652
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "690997",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.0400530003611,
              "release_spin_rate": 2502.730639559779,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.0400530003611,
                "release_spin_rate": 2502.730639559779,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.0401,
              "release_spin_rate": 2502.7306,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 0.466,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.2691,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9771,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0217,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.011,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "690997",
            "espn_id": 4433874,
            "player_name": "Nolan McLean",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 37,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 37,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 262,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 3.0618,
              "era_rank": 15.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 23,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 60,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
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              "ip_value": 161.2,
              "ip_rank": 20,
              "h_value": 120.0,
              "h_rank": 77,
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              "er_rank": 90,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 91,
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              "k_rank": 14,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.964949,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18,
              "whip_value": 1.1443,
              "whip_rank": 20.0,
              "war_value": 2.94,
              "war_rank": 25.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9771,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9771,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9595,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0217,
            "adjusted": 5
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 119,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +5."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_NYM@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_NYM@NYY

home

Carlos Rodón

True

5.2

6.1

-1

6/3

0/1

5/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 3.09375,
      "WHIP": 1.171875,
      "IP": 64.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.923,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 0.84,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9947,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.036,
      "walk_factor": 1.0588,
      "homer_factor": 0.9956,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 26.2,
      "bb_percent": 12.7,
      "woba": 0.274,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 162,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 64.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.094,
      "season_WHIP": 1.172,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607074",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 5.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 10.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 94.0,
            "Pitches": 415.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 1.0,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 2.0,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 18.8,
            "Pitches": 83.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.9853,
            "WHIP": 0.9706,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.22059,
            "H_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05882,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13235
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.64706,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45098,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03922,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.34375,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.09375,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
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      "total_change": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "607074",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "607074",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
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            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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              "k_rank": 180,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.84375,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.1718,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.17,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9955,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0494,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9963,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0302,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_NYM@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_PHI@ATL

away

Aaron Nola

True

5.2

6.1

-2

9/6

1/3

3/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.7612903225806456,
      "WHIP": 1.367741935483871,
      "IP": 155.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.345,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0826,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.993,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
      "walk_factor": 0.972,
      "homer_factor": 1.0482,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 24.4,
      "bb_percent": 7.8,
      "woba": 0.345,
      "xwoba": 0.307,
      "barrel_percent": 9.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.4,
      "whiff_percent": 27.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 57,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.0,
            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 6.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 119.0,
            "Pitches": 486.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.2,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 6.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 97.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.8,
            "WHIP": 1.0333,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.2,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 58.0,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 60.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 238.0,
            "Pitches": 955.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.8,
            "Pitches": 95.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1034,
            "WHIP": 1.2586,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.34483,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89655,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36207,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.03448,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2069
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.0,
            "ER": 82.0,
            "R": 84.0,
            "H": 160.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 162.0,
            "HR": 32.0,
            "BF": 663.0,
            "Pitches": 2655.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8276,
            "R": 2.8966,
            "H": 5.5172,
            "BB": 1.7931,
            "SO": 5.5862,
            "HR": 1.1034,
            "BF": 22.8621,
            "Pitches": 91.5517
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7613,
            "WHIP": 1.3677,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52903,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03226,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.33548,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04516,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20645
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 1.973,
        "predicted_H": 4.981,
        "predicted_BB": 1.922,
        "predicted_SO": 6.011,
        "predicted_HR": 0.901,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.0953,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2031
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.973,
          "final": 2.8084,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.981,
          "final": 6.6374,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.922,
          "final": 1.542,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 6.011,
          "final": 4.77,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.901,
          "final": 0.5297,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.0953,
          "final": 3.0953,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2031,
          "final": 1.2031,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 58.0,
        "ER": 20,
        "H": 52,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 60,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.1034482758620685,
        "WHIP": 1.2586206896551722,
        "K9": 9.310344827586206,
        "HR9": 1.862068965517241,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.851022950701861,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605400",
      "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 9.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 147,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5578,
        "runs_scored": 659.0,
        "runs_allowed": 622.0,
        "run_differential": 37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2517,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.483,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2313,
        "offense_index": 0.9972,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 671.0,
        "runs_allowed": 561.0,
        "run_differential": 110.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7483,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5646,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8163,
        "offense_index": 1.0154,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1288
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0489,
        "offense_edge": -0.0028,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0154,
        "defense_strength": 0.0624,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9993,
        "run_prevention": 0.9987,
        "strikeout": 0.9973
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605400",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605400",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.9166,
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            "whiff_percent": 27.6,
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": 1.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1143,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605400",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 98,
            "primary_pitch": {
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.9291,
              "release_spin_rate": 2292.2153,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.221,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.5784,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0826,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.993,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0286,
          "walk_factor": 0.972,
          "homer_factor": 1.0482,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.038,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605400",
            "espn_id": 33709,
            "player_name": "Aaron Nola",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 57,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 57,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 237,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 9,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 58,
              "era_value": 4.7612,
              "era_rank": 47.0,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 104,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 18,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 155.0,
              "ip_rank": 34,
              "h_value": 160.0,
              "h_rank": 9,
              "er_value": 82.0,
              "er_rank": 9,
              "hr_value": 32.0,
              "hr_rank": 3,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 162.0,
              "k_rank": 24,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.406452,
              "k_per_9_rank": 19,
              "whip_value": 1.3677,
              "whip_rank": 46.0,
              "war_value": 2.43,
              "war_rank": 29.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.993,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.993,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.972,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0482,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0286,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 3,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_PHI@ATL

home

Chris Sale

True

6.1

7.0

7/3

0/2

8/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.1,
      "WHIP": 1.0066666666666666,
      "IP": 150.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 25,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6593,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.944,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0783,
      "walk_factor": 0.912,
      "homer_factor": 0.9298,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.6,
      "bb_percent": 4.8,
      "woba": 0.262,
      "xwoba": 0.272,
      "barrel_percent": 5.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
      "whiff_percent": 30.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 6,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 25,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 130.0,
            "Pitches": 517.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 8.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 26.0,
            "Pitches": 103.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1818,
            "WHIP": 0.9697,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24242,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87879,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09091,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24242,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0303
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 939.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 0.7,
            "SO": 7.5,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 93.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 0.9,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.78333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.11667,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.25,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 25,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 150.0,
            "ER": 35.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 29.0,
            "SO": 184.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 601.0,
            "Pitches": 2383.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 4.88,
            "BB": 1.16,
            "SO": 7.36,
            "HR": 0.36,
            "BF": 24.04,
            "Pitches": 95.32
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1,
            "WHIP": 1.0067,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.23333,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81333,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19333,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.776,
        "predicted_H": 5.395,
        "predicted_BB": 1.022,
        "predicted_SO": 7.514,
        "predicted_HR": 0.381,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.5351,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0177
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4204,
      "form_weight": 0.5796,
      "form_reliability": 0.8333,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 25.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8333,
        "prior_weight": 0.1667
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.776,
          "final": 2.2906,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.395,
          "final": 6.4902,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.022,
          "final": 0.5923,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 7.514,
          "final": 7.7183,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.381,
          "final": 0.2208,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.5351,
          "final": 2.5351,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0177,
          "final": 1.0177,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 7,
        "SO": 75,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.1,
        "WHIP": 0.9,
        "K9": 11.25,
        "HR9": 0.45,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 8,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.729169502425999,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 25.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8333,
          "prior_weight": 0.1667
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "519242",
      "player_name": "Chris Sale",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 2,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 86,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.585,
        "runs_scored": 671.0,
        "runs_allowed": 561.0,
        "run_differential": 110.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7483,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5646,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8163,
        "offense_index": 1.0154,
        "defense_index": 1.1779,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1288
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5578,
        "runs_scored": 659.0,
        "runs_allowed": 622.0,
        "run_differential": 37.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2517,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.483,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2313,
        "offense_index": 0.9972,
        "defense_index": 1.0624,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0799
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0489,
        "offense_edge": 0.0154,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0028,
        "defense_strength": 0.1779,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0624,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0074,
        "run_prevention": 0.9793,
        "strikeout": 1.0017
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "519242",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "519242",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 491.0,
            "k_percent": 30.6,
            "bb_percent": 4.8,
            "woba": 0.262,
            "xwoba": 0.272,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.0599,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4937,
            "whiff_percent": 30.1,
            "swing_percent": 50.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7607,
            "command_and_miss": 1.0279,
            "regression_edge": -0.2857,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1143,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7286,
            "bb_edge": 1.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0673
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "519242",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 101,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 101,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.67399153905109,
              "release_spin_rate": 2344.7057974290524,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 101,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.67399153905109,
                "release_spin_rate": 2344.7057974290524,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.674,
              "release_spin_rate": 2344.7058,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0673,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.4805,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6593,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.944,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0783,
          "walk_factor": 0.912,
          "homer_factor": 0.9298,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.01,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "519242",
            "espn_id": 30948,
            "player_name": "Chris Sale",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 6,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 6,
              "gp_value": 25.0,
              "gp_rank": 324,
              "gs_value": 25.0,
              "gs_rank": 63,
              "qs_value": 18.0,
              "qs_rank": 5,
              "era_value": 2.1,
              "era_rank": 3.0,
              "w_value": 14.0,
              "w_rank": 6,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 32,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 150.0,
              "ip_rank": 45,
              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 73,
              "er_value": 35.0,
              "er_rank": 166,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 176,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 177,
              "k_value": 184.0,
              "k_rank": 11,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.04,
              "k_per_9_rank": 6,
              "whip_value": 1.0066,
              "whip_rank": 5.0,
              "war_value": 5.42,
              "war_rank": 6.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.912,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9298,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0783,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_PHI@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_PIT@CHC

away

Wilber Dotel

True

5.0

2.0

-9

4/4

2/0

7/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.7551020408163267,
      "WHIP": 1.1326530612244898,
      "IP": 32.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.2,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.2,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0854,
      "sample_weight": 0.484,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9927,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0086,
      "walk_factor": 1.0087,
      "homer_factor": 0.9867,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.6,
      "bb_percent": 10.1,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 3.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 46.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 316,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 32.2,
      "season_ERA": 2.755,
      "season_WHIP": 1.133,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.591,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5686,
        "prior_weight": 0.4314
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696062",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 5.0,
            "H": 8.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 9.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 36.0,
            "Pitches": 147.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.6,
            "BB": 0.8,
            "SO": 1.8,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.2,
            "Pitches": 29.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.32,
            "WHIP": 1.44,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 19.0,
            "ER": 8.0,
            "R": 10.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 20.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 81.0,
            "Pitches": 322.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.0,
            "H": 1.7,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 2.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 8.1,
            "Pitches": 32.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.7895,
            "WHIP": 1.4211,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42105,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89474,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52632,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05263,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 34.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 132.0,
            "Pitches": 520.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.625,
            "R": 0.75,
            "H": 1.5,
            "BB": 0.8125,
            "SO": 2.125,
            "HR": 0.0625,
            "BF": 8.25,
            "Pitches": 32.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7551,
            "WHIP": 1.1327,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.30612,
            "H_per_IP": 0.73469,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39796,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.04082,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03061
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.471,
        "predicted_H": 2.973,
        "predicted_BB": 1.388,
        "predicted_SO": 3.241,
        "predicted_HR": 0.214,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1255,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3592
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5323,
      "form_weight": 0.4677,
      "form_reliability": 0.5686,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.591,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5686,
        "prior_weight": 0.4314
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.471,
          "final": 1.2203,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.973,
          "final": 3.5196,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.388,
          "final": 1.7137,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.241,
          "final": 4.7095,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.214,
          "final": 0.1001,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1255,
          "final": 4.1255,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3592,
          "final": 1.3592,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 16.0,
        "ER": 8,
        "H": 17,
        "BB": 8,
        "SO": 17,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 4.5,
        "WHIP": 1.5625,
        "K9": 9.5625,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-08T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0082581614219643,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 6.591,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5686,
          "prior_weight": 0.4314
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696062",
      "player_name": "Wilber Dotel",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
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          "summary": {
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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        ],
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5034,
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "696062",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "696062",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.317,
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          "components": {
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            "whiff_edge": 0.0714,
            "bb_edge": -0.225,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2234
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696062",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 27,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 27,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.864261510291,
              "release_spin_rate": 2209.7938725723698,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 27,
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                "release_speed": 93.864261510291,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.8643,
              "release_spin_rate": 2209.7939,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0854,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "696062",
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            "player_name": "Wilber Dotel",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 316,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 316,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
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              "qs_rank": 210,
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              "w_rank": 412,
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              "h_rank": 423,
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              "er_rank": 401,
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              "hr_rank": 525,
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              "k_rank": 390,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.367347,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.3163,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.28,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9965,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_H": {
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            "factor": 0.9965,
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 0.9936,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_PIT@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_PIT@CHC

home

Shota Imanaga

True

5.1

6.0

6/5

2/2

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.583,
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      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.314,
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      "barrel_percent": 9.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
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      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.8,
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            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.6,
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            "Pitches": 86.6
          },
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            "H_per_IP": 1.01408,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.25352,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14085,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.33803
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
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            "Pitches": 908.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.2,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
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            "WHIP": 1.1625,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.99375,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.975,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.225
          }
        },
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 68.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 140.0,
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            "SO": 152.0,
            "HR": 33.0,
            "BF": 637.0,
            "Pitches": 2507.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
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            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.0,
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            "Pitches": 89.5357
          },
          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 0.89552,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.97228,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21109
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 2.556,
        "predicted_H": 5.041,
        "predicted_BB": 1.238,
        "predicted_SO": 5.303,
        "predicted_HR": 1.304,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4802,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2226
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.556,
          "final": 2.3258,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.041,
          "final": 5.438,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.238,
          "final": 1.5535,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.303,
          "final": 5.1776,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.304,
          "final": 0.7641,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4802,
          "final": 4.4802,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2226,
          "final": 1.2226,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 53.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 53,
        "BB": 9,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 3.20625,
        "WHIP": 1.1624999999999999,
        "K9": 8.775,
        "HR9": 2.025,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8601851274259988,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "684007",
      "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.1,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 66,
        "win_pct": 0.551,
        "runs_scored": 780.0,
        "runs_allowed": 652.0,
        "run_differential": 128.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8707,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3061,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4354,
        "offense_index": 1.1794,
        "defense_index": 1.0143,
        "current_streak": "L4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": 1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1148
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5034,
        "runs_scored": 709.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": 36.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2449,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8231,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5782,
        "offense_index": 1.0721,
        "defense_index": 0.9827,
        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 8,
          "losses": 2,
          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1378
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.023,
        "offense_edge": 0.1794,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0721,
        "defense_strength": 0.0143,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0173,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.4
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9966,
        "run_prevention": 1.0113,
        "strikeout": 0.9935
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "684007",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "684007",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 577.0,
            "k_percent": 23.9,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.0992,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8357,
            "whiff_percent": 29.7,
            "swing_percent": 51.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0234,
            "command_and_miss": 0.5421,
            "regression_edge": 0.3429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6714,
            "bb_edge": 0.925,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1881
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "684007",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.5154055046095,
              "release_spin_rate": 2045.9740460181658,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 90,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.5154055046095,
                "release_spin_rate": 2045.9740460181658,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.5154,
              "release_spin_rate": 2045.974,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1881,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3439,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1733,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9853,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0377,
          "walk_factor": 0.926,
          "homer_factor": 1.0317,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.012,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "684007",
            "espn_id": 5134630,
            "player_name": "Shota Imanaga",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 122,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 122,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 262,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 25,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 34,
              "era_value": 3.9147,
              "era_rank": 31.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 42,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 18,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 156.1,
              "ip_rank": 30,
              "h_value": 140.0,
              "h_rank": 34,
              "er_value": 68.0,
              "er_rank": 40,
              "hr_value": 33.0,
              "hr_rank": 1,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 122,
              "k_value": 152.0,
              "k_rank": 30,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.750533,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.1194,
              "whip_rank": 18.0,
              "war_value": 1.49,
              "war_rank": 40.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9853,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9853,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.926,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0317,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0377,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_PIT@CHC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_SD@SF

away

Robbie Ray

True

5.0

4/4

2/4

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3898678414096914,
      "WHIP": 1.3414096916299558,
      "IP": 151.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.37,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 2.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3145,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0267,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
      "walk_factor": 1.058,
      "homer_factor": 1.0455,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 12.1,
      "woba": 0.314,
      "xwoba": 0.335,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.6,
      "whiff_percent": 25.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 66,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
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            "R": 11.0,
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            "BB": 15.0,
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            "Pitches": 435.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
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          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3944,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46479,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76056,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.6338,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76056,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16901
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
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            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
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            "H": 4.7,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2617,
            "WHIP": 1.5705,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36242,
            "H_per_IP": 0.94631,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62416,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8255,
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 151.1,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3899,
            "WHIP": 1.3414,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37665,
            "H_per_IP": 0.8326,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50881,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83921,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13216
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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        "predicted_BB": 2.809,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.8269,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4298
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.096,
          "final": 2.4703,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.239,
          "final": 4.1401,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.809,
          "final": 2.4741,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 4.044,
          "final": 4.8538,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.686,
          "final": 0.402,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8269,
          "final": 3.8269,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4298,
          "final": 1.4298,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 31,
        "SO": 41,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.261744966442953,
        "WHIP": 1.5704697986577183,
        "K9": 7.429530201342282,
        "HR9": 0.9060402684563759,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8766275561172742,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "592662",
      "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
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          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 146,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.5342,
        "runs_scored": 619.0,
        "runs_allowed": 602.0,
        "run_differential": 17.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1164,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2397,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1233,
        "offense_index": 0.9431,
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        "current_streak": "W4",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0783
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 62,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4218,
        "runs_scored": 617.0,
        "runs_allowed": 689.0,
        "run_differential": -72.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4898,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1973,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6871,
        "offense_index": 0.9337,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.5,
          "run_differential": 2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0914
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1697,
        "offense_edge": -0.0569,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0663,
        "defense_strength": 0.0903,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0409,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0121,
        "run_prevention": 0.9719,
        "strikeout": 1.0104
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "592662",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "592662",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 551.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 12.1,
            "woba": 0.314,
            "xwoba": 0.335,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.5171,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0637,
            "whiff_percent": 25.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.3159,
            "command_and_miss": -0.275,
            "regression_edge": -0.6,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0429,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0762
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "592662",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.51374193206205,
              "release_spin_rate": 2134.8108860159628,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 89,
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                "release_speed": 88.51374193206205,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5137,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0762,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": -0.5446,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3145,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0267,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9886,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Robbie Ray",
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            "espn_rank": 66,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 66,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
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              "gs_value": 27.0,
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              "qs_value": 11.0,
              "qs_rank": 46,
              "era_value": 3.3898,
              "era_rank": 19.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 23,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 60,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 151.1,
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              "h_value": 126.0,
              "h_rank": 67,
              "er_value": 57.0,
              "er_rank": 75,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 38,
              "bb_value": 77.0,
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              "k_value": 127.0,
              "k_rank": 55,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.552863,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35,
              "whip_value": 1.3414,
              "whip_rank": 42.0,
              "war_value": 2.18,
              "war_rank": 31.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0267,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9886,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_SD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_SD@SF

home

Anthony Molina

True

5.0

3.0

-6

7/9

2/2

2/4

Last 10 before this game (6 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 0.8793103448275863,
      "IP": 19.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 6,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0632,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9925,
      "walk_factor": 0.9541,
      "homer_factor": 0.9862,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.3,
      "bb_percent": 4.1,
      "woba": 0.249,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 7.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 308,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.8653846153846154,
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 6.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5455,
        "prior_weight": 0.4545
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      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 6,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
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            "ER": 6.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 14.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 1.8,
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            "BB": 0.4,
            "SO": 3.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 13.6,
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.34615,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.11538,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86538,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17308
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 6,
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            "BB": 3.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 1.5,
            "H": 2.3333,
            "BB": 0.5,
            "SO": 2.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 12.3333,
            "Pitches": 50.3333
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          "rates": {
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            "ER_per_IP": 0.31034,
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.15517,
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            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
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        },
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            "SO": 15.0,
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            "BF": 74.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "BB_per_IP": 0.15517,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77586,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15517
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_ER": 1.697,
        "predicted_H": 3.585,
        "predicted_BB": 0.958,
        "predicted_SO": 3.653,
        "predicted_HR": 0.654,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.733,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1104
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 1.697,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1104,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 6,
        "H": 14,
        "BB": 3,
        "SO": 15,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 2.793103448275862,
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        "K9": 6.982758620689656,
        "HR9": 1.396551724137931,
        "games_pitched": 6,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 6,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 6,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8773455515132724,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5455,
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 2
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683627",
      "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      "total_change": {
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                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.79893899204244,
                "release_spin_rate": 2093.420424403183,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2093.4204,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0043,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0305,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0632,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9925,
          "walk_factor": 0.9541,
          "homer_factor": 0.9862,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.053,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "683627",
            "espn_id": 5016983,
            "player_name": "Anthony Molina",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 308,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 308,
              "gp_value": 6.0,
              "gp_rank": 610,
              "gs_value": 2.0,
              "gs_rank": 272,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 2.7931,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 244,
              "l_value": 0.0,
              "l_rank": 573,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 19.1,
              "ip_rank": 520,
              "h_value": 14.0,
              "h_rank": 582,
              "er_value": 6.0,
              "er_rank": 629,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 443,
              "bb_value": 3.0,
              "bb_rank": 680,
              "k_value": 15.0,
              "k_rank": 533,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.982759,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 0.8793,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.29,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9976,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9793,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 6 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_SD@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_SEA@OAK

away

George Kirby

True

5.2

6.0

5/9

1/2

2/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.179916317991632,
      "WHIP": 1.3430962343096233,
      "IP": 159.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.901,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.467,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0107,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0009,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9703,
      "walk_factor": 0.926,
      "homer_factor": 1.0093,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.9,
      "bb_percent": 5.5,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 136,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.1,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 461.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 7.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5854,
            "WHIP": 1.6829,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.73171,
            "H_per_IP": 1.35366,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32927,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.76829,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14634
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 886.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 88.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.8795,
            "WHIP": 1.3916,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54217,
            "H_per_IP": 1.15663,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23494,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75904,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18072
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 159.1,
            "ER": 74.0,
            "R": 79.0,
            "H": 177.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 133.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 667.0,
            "Pitches": 2468.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7407,
            "R": 2.9259,
            "H": 6.5556,
            "BB": 1.3704,
            "SO": 4.9259,
            "HR": 0.7407,
            "BF": 24.7037,
            "Pitches": 91.4074
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1799,
            "WHIP": 1.3431,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46444,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11088,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.23222,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83473,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12552
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.329,
        "predicted_H": 6.687,
        "predicted_BB": 1.631,
        "predicted_SO": 4.498,
        "predicted_HR": 0.857,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.354,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4863
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 3.329,
          "final": 3.1921,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.687,
          "final": 5.9852,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.631,
          "final": 1.3685,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.498,
          "final": 3.4588,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.857,
          "final": 0.9165,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.354,
          "final": 5.354,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4863,
          "final": 1.4863,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 64,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.879518072289156,
        "WHIP": 1.391566265060241,
        "K9": 6.831325301204819,
        "HR9": 1.6265060240963856,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.054154442185035,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669923",
      "player_name": "George Kirby",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4694,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 655.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5034,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9524,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4558,
        "offense_index": 0.8792,
        "defense_index": 1.0089,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0876
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.4014,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 828.0,
        "run_differential": -187.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2721,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3605,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6327,
        "offense_index": 0.97,
        "defense_index": 0.7981,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2044
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1168,
        "offense_edge": -0.1208,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.03,
        "defense_strength": 0.0089,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2019,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9885,
        "strikeout": 1.0059
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669923",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669923",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 564.0,
            "k_percent": 19.9,
            "bb_percent": 5.5,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 40.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.9097,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1127,
            "whiff_percent": 21.9,
            "swing_percent": 52.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1197,
            "command_and_miss": -0.105,
            "regression_edge": 0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.3429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": 0.925,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1163
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669923",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.95180614765201,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.8919829070005,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.95180614765201,
                "release_spin_rate": 2266.8919829070005,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.9518,
              "release_spin_rate": 2266.892,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1163,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.8307,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0107,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0009,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9703,
          "walk_factor": 0.926,
          "homer_factor": 1.0093,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669923",
            "espn_id": 42406,
            "player_name": "George Kirby",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 136,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 136,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 289,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 38,
              "qs_value": 15.0,
              "qs_rank": 17,
              "era_value": 4.1799,
              "era_rank": 42.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 42,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 11,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 159.1,
              "ip_rank": 24,
              "h_value": 177.0,
              "h_rank": 5,
              "er_value": 74.0,
              "er_rank": 22,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 38,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 109,
              "k_value": 133.0,
              "k_rank": 51,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.5125527,
              "k_per_9_rank": 57,
              "whip_value": 1.343,
              "whip_rank": 43.0,
              "war_value": 1.36,
              "war_rank": 41.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0009,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0009,
            "adjusted": 7
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.926,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0093,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9703,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 102,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_SEA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_SEA@OAK

home

Jeffrey Springs

True

4.2

5.0

-1

5/6

0/2

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.023076923076923,
      "WHIP": 1.4461538461538461,
      "IP": 130.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3277,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0279,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 1.0434,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.365,
      "xwoba": 0.336,
      "barrel_percent": 9.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.9,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 766,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 18.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 431.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 22.6,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.1923,
            "WHIP": 1.4231,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.5,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23077
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.1,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 37.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 25.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 816.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.7,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 81.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.8451,
            "WHIP": 1.6056,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.76056,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07746,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52817,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.67606,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25352
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 130.0,
            "ER": 87.0,
            "R": 94.0,
            "H": 136.0,
            "BB": 52.0,
            "SO": 104.0,
            "HR": 33.0,
            "BF": 572.0,
            "Pitches": 2220.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.3462,
            "R": 3.6154,
            "H": 5.2308,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 1.2692,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 85.3846
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.0231,
            "WHIP": 1.4462,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66923,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04615,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.25385
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.19,
        "predicted_H": 5.013,
        "predicted_BB": 2.366,
        "predicted_SO": 3.749,
        "predicted_HR": 1.145,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.7094,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4675
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4181,
      "form_weight": 0.5819,
      "form_reliability": 0.8387,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.19,
          "final": 2.6924,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.013,
          "final": 4.5894,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.366,
          "final": 1.3767,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.749,
          "final": 4.2721,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.145,
          "final": 0.6662,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.7094,
          "final": 5.7094,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4675,
          "final": 1.4675,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.1,
        "ER": 36,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 25,
        "SO": 32,
        "HR": 12,
        "ERA": 6.845070422535211,
        "WHIP": 1.6056338028169013,
        "K9": 6.084507042253521,
        "HR9": 2.2816901408450705,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2806307700316326,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 26.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8387,
          "prior_weight": 0.1613
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_quality_floor",
        "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 4,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "605488",
      "player_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "starter_quality_floor",
          "description": "Weak starter floor restored expected damage from recent form instead of assigning it to zero-inning bullpen rows.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.25,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 2,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 2,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 4,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.2,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 3,
          "boosted_metrics": 2,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 3,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 59,
        "losses": 88,
        "win_pct": 0.4014,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 828.0,
        "run_differential": -187.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2721,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3605,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6327,
        "offense_index": 0.97,
        "defense_index": 0.7981,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2044
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4694,
        "runs_scored": 581.0,
        "runs_allowed": 655.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5034,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9524,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4558,
        "offense_index": 0.8792,
        "defense_index": 1.0089,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0876
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1168,
        "offense_edge": -0.03,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1208,
        "defense_strength": -0.2019,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0089,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9941,
        "run_prevention": 1.0067,
        "strikeout": 1.0062
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "605488",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "605488",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 495.0,
            "k_percent": 18.2,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.365,
            "xwoba": 0.336,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.1803,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4547,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.5459,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3343,
            "regression_edge": 0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.7143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2714,
            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2242
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "605488",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 69,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 69,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.87226981566755,
              "release_spin_rate": 2002.2499973783792,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 69,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.87226981566755,
                "release_spin_rate": 2002.2499973783792,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.8723,
              "release_spin_rate": 2002.25,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2242,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.6011,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3277,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0279,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9674,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 1.0434,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "605488",
            "espn_id": 35397,
            "player_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 766,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 766,
              "gp_value": 26.0,
              "gp_rank": 306,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 53,
              "qs_value": 5.0,
              "qs_rank": 109,
              "era_value": 6.023,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 190,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 4,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 130.0,
              "ip_rank": 84,
              "h_value": 136.0,
              "h_rank": 45,
              "er_value": 87.0,
              "er_rank": 4,
              "hr_value": 33.0,
              "hr_rank": 1,
              "bb_value": 52.0,
              "bb_rank": 32,
              "k_value": 104.0,
              "k_rank": 95,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2,
              "k_per_9_rank": 30,
              "whip_value": 1.4461,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.47,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0434,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9674,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 76,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_SEA@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_TEX@ARI

away

MacKenzie Gore

True

5.0

4.0

-3

5/5

1/3

2/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.509513742071882,
      "WHIP": 1.331923890063425,
      "IP": 157.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.256,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.733,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0851,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9928,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0234,
      "walk_factor": 1.0,
      "homer_factor": 1.0323,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 24.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.2,
      "woba": 0.315,
      "xwoba": 0.306,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 26.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 165,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 23.2,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9437,
            "WHIP": 1.8592,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5493,
            "H_per_IP": 1.26761,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59155,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88732,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04225
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.2,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 53.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 55.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 236.0,
            "Pitches": 925.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.3,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 23.6,
            "Pitches": 92.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.2722,
            "WHIP": 1.4241,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47468,
            "H_per_IP": 1.00633,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.0443,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11392
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 157.2,
            "ER": 79.0,
            "R": 79.0,
            "H": 147.0,
            "BB": 63.0,
            "SO": 170.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 684.0,
            "Pitches": 2715.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.6333,
            "R": 2.6333,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 5.6667,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 90.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5095,
            "WHIP": 1.3319,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50106,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39958,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07822,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11416
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.575,
        "predicted_H": 5.479,
        "predicted_BB": 2.388,
        "predicted_SO": 4.902,
        "predicted_HR": 0.458,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6082,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5644
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
      "form_weight": 0.5896,
      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 30.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
        "prior_weight": 0.1429
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.575,
          "final": 3.1598,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.479,
          "final": 5.2824,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 2.388,
          "final": 1.8184,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.902,
          "final": 3.7111,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.458,
          "final": 0.6804,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6082,
          "final": 4.6082,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5644,
          "final": 1.5644,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
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        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 22,
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        "WHIP": 1.4240506329113924,
        "K9": 9.398734177215191,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9866378568563787,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
          "prior_weight": 0.1429
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669022",
      "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4898,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 651.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2789,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1497,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4286,
        "offense_index": 0.9231,
        "defense_index": 1.0151,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0428
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 147,
        "wins": 78,
        "losses": 69,
        "win_pct": 0.5306,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0068,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4082,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.415,
        "offense_index": 0.9806,
        "defense_index": 1.0182,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0602
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.103,
        "offense_edge": -0.0769,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0194,
        "defense_strength": 0.0151,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0182,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9971,
        "run_prevention": 1.0005,
        "strikeout": 0.9985
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 595.0,
            "k_percent": 24.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.315,
            "xwoba": 0.306,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.4646,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5125,
            "whiff_percent": 26.2,
            "swing_percent": 49.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0119,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2464,
            "regression_edge": 0.2571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4714,
            "whiff_edge": 0.1714,
            "bb_edge": 0.0,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0242
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 101,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 101,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.30705137786757,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.388338902536,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 101,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30705137786757,
                "release_spin_rate": 2168.388338902536,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3071,
              "release_spin_rate": 2168.3883,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0242,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1728,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0851,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9928,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0234,
          "walk_factor": 1.0,
          "homer_factor": 1.0323,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669022",
            "espn_id": 39636,
            "player_name": "MacKenzie Gore",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 165,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 165,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 219,
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": 2,
              "qs_value": 9.0,
              "qs_rank": 65,
              "era_value": 4.5095,
              "era_rank": 45.0,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 65,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 18,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 157.2,
              "ip_rank": 28,
              "h_value": 147.0,
              "h_rank": 24,
              "er_value": 79.0,
              "er_rank": 14,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 58,
              "bb_value": 63.0,
              "bb_rank": 14,
              "k_value": 170.0,
              "k_rank": 21,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.704017,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.3319,
              "whip_rank": 41.0,
              "war_value": 1.15,
              "war_rank": 46.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9928,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9928,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0323,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_TEX@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260911

20260911_TEX@ARI

home

Merrill Kelly

True

5.1

4.1

-3

-4

11/2

1/3

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.058690744920994,
      "WHIP": 1.469525959367946,
      "IP": 147.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.679,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -1.0114,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.086,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9429,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 1.1733,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 15.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.355,
      "xwoba": 0.387,
      "barrel_percent": 11.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 472,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "518876",
      "report_date": "20260911",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 27.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 18.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 122.0,
            "Pitches": 450.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 24.4,
            "Pitches": 90.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8554,
            "WHIP": 1.4819,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6506,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9759,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50602,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68675,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14458
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 54.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 50.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 230.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.4074,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92593,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48148,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74074,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12963
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.2,
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_BB": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "K9": 6.666666666666667,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.011854687611184,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.5306,
        "runs_scored": 648.0,
        "runs_allowed": 649.0,
        "run_differential": -1.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.0068,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4082,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4898,
        "runs_scored": 610.0,
        "runs_allowed": 651.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2789,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4286,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 10.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0428
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0194,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0182,
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0092
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "518876",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "518876",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.387,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": -2.1714,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "518876",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 79,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2522,
              "release_spin_rate": 2316.2311,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": -1.0114,
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          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Merrill Kelly",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "k_per_9_value": 6.0338597,
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              "whip_value": 1.4695,
              "whip_rank": 51.0,
              "war_value": 0.02,
              "war_rank": 49.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.086,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 9",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -9."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260911_TEX@ARI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}