Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260908 · dates 20260908 · generated 2026-09-09T09:00:18.514431+00:00

11-4

Winner picks · 73.3%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

13/30

Starter ER within ±1

21/30

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260908	15	15	0	11	4	15	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	15	applied games: 15formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	15	available games: 11
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	15	variance multipliers: [1.75]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	15	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	15	configured window: 10last 10 games: 15observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	15	settled games: 15metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1825.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	10	52.6%	60.0%	-7.4%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	3	56.2%	100.0%	-43.8%	underconfident
0.60-0.65	1	64.5%	100.0%	-35.5%	underconfident
0.65-0.70	1	67.2%	100.0%	-32.8%	underconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	15	1.9069	3.047	2.5475	73.3%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	15	1.8333	3.0	2.4667	60.0%	-0.0736	-0.0808
enhanced_prediction	15	2.1667	3.6667	2.4667	73.3%	0.2598	-0.0808
embedded_savant_run_environment	15	2.2333	3.6667	2.7333	73.3%	0.3264	0.1858
fundamental_edge_target_review	15	2.2333	3.6667	2.7333	73.3%	0.3264	0.1858
capped_target	15	2.2333	3.6667	2.7333	73.3%	0.3264	0.1858
simulation_result	15	2.2333	3.6667	2.7333	73.3%	0.3264	0.1858
published_final	15	2.2333	3.6667	2.7333	73.3%	0.3264	0.1858

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
  "games": 15,
  "team_run_mae": 2.2333,
  "total_run_mae": 3.6667,
  "margin_mae": 2.7333,
  "winner_hits": 11,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.7333,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.3264,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.1858
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=4

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	3.0	-1.0	2.0	4.0	4	2	1	1	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.6655	-0.3291	0.3364	0.9946	4	3	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4	0	0	4	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 4,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 3.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 2,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6655,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.3291,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.3364,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.9946,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 4,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 4,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=11

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	10.0	-2.0	8.0	12.0	11	5	1	5	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	4.0	0.0	4.0	4.0	11	3	0	8	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.9509	-3.4326	-2.4817	4.3835	11	3	8	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11	0	0	11	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11	0	0	11	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	11	0	0	11	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 11,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 10.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -2.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 8.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 12.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 5,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 5,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 8,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.9509,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -3.4326,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -2.4817,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.3835,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 8,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 11,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 11,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	5	4	1	0.8
[0.525, 0.550)	5	2	3	0.4
[0.550, 0.600)	3	3	0	1.0
[0.600, 1.010)	2	2	0	1.0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
    "sample_size": 5,
    "hits": 2,
    "misses": 3,
    "accuracy": 0.4
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 4,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.8
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 3,
      "accuracy": 0.4
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260908	15	0.5508	9.2667	0.7333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260908",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5508,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.2667,
      "accuracy": 0.7333
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=15

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	15	11	4	0.7333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 15,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 15,
      "hits": 11,
      "misses": 4,
      "accuracy": 0.7333
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260908_ARI@KC

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickARI

Published scoreARI 5 - 3 KC

Final confidence57.4%

Calibrationraw 62.3% → blended 58.7%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=227

H2H base featurehome net -1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.5788

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.7766747174820905-3.3829228404375113	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.147298,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.573649,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.426351,
    "away_win_probability": 0.573649
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.147298,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "ARI wins 5-3",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "ARI 5 - 3 KC",
    "confidence": 0.5736494,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.6225,
    "sample_size": 227,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5507,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5866,
    "published_confidence": 0.573649,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": -1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.7483,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.264,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.5788
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024933096943755746
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024092699394398776
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024027835754602468
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02321795103269764
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.022899581331060424
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06896097269856737,
      "1": 0.11195011217127791,
      "2": 0.1527395285267383,
      "3": 0.1751395044268684,
      "4": 0.16878060739924147,
      "5": 0.13669943910643728,
      "6": 0.09305006437467268,
      "7": 0.053231950712082914,
      "8": 0.025593745263190425,
      "9": 0.01034191735501202,
      "10": 0.0035121579659112877
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.036353298315320116,
      "1": 0.06064463299186435,
      "2": 0.08978452243054554,
      "3": 0.11796987920530164,
      "4": 0.13756290719926623,
      "5": 0.1423613537411079,
      "6": 0.13075052031235146,
      "7": 0.10657498872955586,
      "8": 0.07709526719700645,
      "9": 0.04949492761889572,
      "10": 0.02820033204551626,
      "11": 0.0142596315281591,
      "12": 0.006399159538929879,
      "13": 0.0025485791461795156
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 3 KC",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "ARI 5 - 3 KC",
      "winner": "ARI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0056,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.614,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "ARI",
      "model_winner": "ARI",
      "simulation_winner": "ARI",
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.7766747174820905,
      "home_runs": 3.3829228404375113,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_CHC@MIL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickMIL

Published scoreCHC 4 - 6 MIL

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=259

H2H base featurehome net -5.0 · absolute 5.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1107

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.592007580851395-7.003629609701058	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-7	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIL wins 6-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 6 MIL",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 259,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5311,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -5.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -14.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.3448,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.324,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1107
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01939890172166698
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01845820073157156
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018397901423246533
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      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018228484840611344
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018210353057545217
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.032643116706648254,
      "1": 0.05463068115619416,
      "2": 0.08166482919674384,
      "3": 0.1090402768375087,
      "4": 0.13004458635724098,
      "5": 0.13853230314684623,
      "6": 0.13181452723353856,
      "7": 0.11202860882054039,
      "8": 0.08504485681130637,
      "9": 0.057666103940356685,
      "10": 0.03492581999795691,
      "11": 0.01889409336768689,
      "12": 0.00912975130964715,
      "13": 0.0039404451177849215
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03394904367827583,
      "1": 0.05675159959694466,
      "2": 0.08454603447429734,
      "3": 0.11224653696855684,
      "4": 0.13280585831121636,
      "5": 0.14003161198514014,
      "6": 0.13158291912095685,
      "7": 0.11018881656322092,
      "8": 0.08223185626459063,
      "9": 0.05468991425246962,
      "10": 0.03241447293385001,
      "11": 0.017121241746533993,
      "12": 0.00805927783483815,
      "13": 0.003380816269108571
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "CHC 4 - 6 MIL",
      "winner": "MIL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1211,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.254,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "model_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner": "MIL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "MIL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 2,
      "simulation_margin": 2,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 2,
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1107,
      "winner": "MIL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "MIL",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6229,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 2,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.1107,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.324,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.1211,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T22:39:56.533158+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-08T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
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    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.581938,
      "confidence": 0.581938,
      "predicted_score": {
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    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.582044,
      "confidence": 0.582044,
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            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
        "sample_size": 259,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.5311,
        "final_confidence": 0.582,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.582,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.957762,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.1,
        "calibration_sample_size": 259,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5487,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.1107,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 5,
            "home_runs": 6
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.582044,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.957762,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.582044,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.582044
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 26,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 5,
        "sample_weight": 0.0577,
        "home_net_margin": -5.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 5.0,
        "home_average_margin": -1.0,
        "home_run_delta": -0.0288,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0288,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 4.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -14.0
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        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
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          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "MIL",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 89,
          "losses": 56,
          "win_pct": 0.6137931034482759,
          "runs_scored": 730,
          "runs_allowed": 561,
          "run_differential": 169,
          "run_differential_per_game": 1.1655172413793105,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CHC",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 64,
          "win_pct": 0.5586206896551724,
          "runs_scored": 771,
          "runs_allowed": 640,
          "run_differential": 131,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.903448275862069,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.2621,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0552,
        "quality_edge": 0.1107,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.3448,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.3448,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.324,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.1107
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.020396732136050453
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          {
            "home_runs": 6,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.019349264619601705
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          {
            "home_runs": 5,
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            "probability": 0.0192822301008796
          },
          {
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            "away_runs": 6,
            "probability": 0.01909396169746152
          },
          {
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            "probability": 0.019073818565421254
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.11019879193018504,
          "4": 0.1328369368667632,
          "5": 0.14205018306909617,
          "6": 0.13475524231692096,
          "7": 0.11340454676215347,
          "8": 0.08466349475162031,
          "9": 0.0560715861861678,
          "10": 0.032943551642905494,
          "11": 0.01717034105715158,
          "12": 0.007939046598992153,
          "13": 0.003256407203433155
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03194650628648871,
          "1": 0.055093226661039926,
          "2": 0.08408241371558076,
          "3": 0.11356493462289749,
          "4": 0.13574238120833904,
          "5": 0.1435882143575208,
          "6": 0.13441701576810935,
          "7": 0.11135810376196278,
          "8": 0.08164348376999117,
          "9": 0.05297285159651593,
          "10": 0.03041706456155209,
          "11": 0.015456578723573585,
          "12": 0.006950908378145029,
          "13": 0.0027663165882833274
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.592007580851395,
      "home_runs": 7.003629609701058,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_CIN@LAD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickLAD

Published scoreCIN 3 - 9 LAD

Final confidence67.2%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 91.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 80.0% · weight 5.0% · n=10

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.393

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.6056602829366464-6.318714736712876	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-9	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-9	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-9	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-9	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "confidence": 0.343672,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.671836,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.671836,
    "away_win_probability": 0.328164
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.343672,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "LAD wins 9-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 9
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 9,
    "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 9 LAD",
    "confidence": 0.671836,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 10,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8,
    "empirical_weight": 0.05,
    "blended_confidence": 0.914,
    "published_confidence": 0.671836,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.025,
    "away_run_delta": -0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.0139,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.24,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.393
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0192449645063928
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.01878750859521976
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018379750075365506
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01806841119343184
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017638922144325258
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.010394664867656313,
      "1": 0.017773217260810947,
      "2": 0.02833323558001723,
      "3": 0.042111514480678285,
      "4": 0.05835527410216544,
      "5": 0.07539350453228318,
      "6": 0.09081598841188086,
      "7": 0.10199180126171972,
      "8": 0.10679299703077334,
      "9": 0.10425451026207162,
      "10": 0.09489022913252645,
      "11": 0.08052351106164855,
      "12": 0.06370866079161432,
      "13": 0.046994692664565484,
      "14": 0.03232017596134566,
      "15": 0.020723980946883973,
      "16": 0.012389312775934223,
      "17": 0.006905510896522697,
      "18": 0.003588549801223144,
      "19": 0.0017386681776783988
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07337834568622924,
      "1": 0.11867785891660676,
      "2": 0.160117392984192,
      "3": 0.18020811327963007,
      "4": 0.16919097408817235,
      "5": 0.13250951470921055,
      "6": 0.08657329710330956,
      "7": 0.047183252355110124,
      "8": 0.021451556577402324,
      "9": 0.008135734552417104,
      "10": 0.0025739597477199517
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 9 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "score_text": "CIN 3 - 9 LAD",
      "winner": "LAD"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0122,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.59,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 9,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "model_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner": "LAD",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "LAD",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "LAD",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 6,
      "simulation_margin": 6,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 9
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 9
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 6,
      "final_margin": 6,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.393,
      "winner": "LAD",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 9,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "LAD",
    "display_confidence": 0.6718,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6718,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 6,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.393,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.24,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0122,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 10,
        "range": 5
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-07T06:03:40.049218+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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    },
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    {
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  ]
}

20260908_CLE@BAL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickCLE

Published scoreCLE 5 - 4 BAL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 50.9% → blended 52.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.9% · weight 50.0% · n=397

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.0933

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.10898000451931-4.726568751371981	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010282,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505141,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494859,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505141
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010282,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CLE wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.50514131,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.50895,
    "sample_size": 397,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.539,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.523975,
    "published_confidence": 0.505141,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -0.8,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0231,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0231,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.1069,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.068,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "CLE",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 72,
          "win_pct": 0.503448275862069,
          "runs_scored": 584,
          "runs_allowed": 600,
          "run_differential": -16,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.1103448275862069,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.0759,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0207,
        "quality_edge": -0.0933,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.1069,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.1069,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.068,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.0933
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
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        "home_distribution": {
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        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.10898000451931,
      "home_runs": 4.726568751371981,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_COL@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreCOL 2 - 8 NYY

Final confidence64.5%

Calibrationraw 92.0% → blended 91.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 80.0% · weight 5.0% · n=10

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.5653

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.551636072201702-6.441938306743169	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-7	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
Embedded Savant Run Environment	2-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	2-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	2-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	2-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.289618,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.644809,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.644809,
    "away_win_probability": 0.355191
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.289618,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 8-2",
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 2,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 2 - 8 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.644809,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.92,
    "sample_size": 10,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8,
    "empirical_weight": 0.05,
    "blended_confidence": 0.914,
    "published_confidence": 0.644809,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.0699,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.628,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.5653
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
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        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019899057347931754
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019819098826483948
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      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018851963446900596
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      {
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        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018776212364965104
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.018503711729498815
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.013377162787635363,
      "1": 0.02279665687027715,
      "2": 0.0359795777807016,
      "3": 0.05259188204988204,
      "4": 0.0711965767845527,
      "5": 0.08926418880747128,
      "6": 0.10365092030159939,
      "7": 0.11146712818484314,
      "8": 0.11101923024657122,
      "9": 0.10240646181206359,
      "10": 0.08748513387666433,
      "11": 0.06921797824838165,
      "12": 0.05072024109624384,
      "13": 0.034420839510457595,
      "14": 0.021634126131148422,
      "15": 0.01259316826611286,
      "16": 0.006789040588405329,
      "17": 0.0033896866569885146
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07185180474034428,
      "1": 0.11635890979126369,
      "2": 0.15759737532362653,
      "3": 0.17851951218240455,
      "4": 0.1691257660791158,
      "5": 0.1340050720160113,
      "6": 0.08880145269695289,
      "7": 0.049215996020953966,
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      "10": 0.002867405732379893
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    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "COL 2 - 8 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "COL 2 - 8 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.067,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.628,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "winner": "NYY",
      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 4,
        "published_winner": "NYY",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 6,
      "simulation_margin": 6,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 8
      },
      "simulation_score": {
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 6,
      "final_margin": 6,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5653,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "NYY",
    "display_confidence": 0.6448,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.72,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.6448,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "supported_runline_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 6,
      "winner_quality_edge": 1.5653,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.628,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.067,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 8,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
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        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-08T23:05:00+00:00",
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    "champion_reference": {
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            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.647495,
      "confidence": 0.647495,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 7,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
          "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-04T06:03:08.215029+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
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            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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    },
    "diagnostics": {
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        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.92,
        "sample_size": 10,
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      "confidence_governor": {
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        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5652,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": true,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.5653,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability",
          "verified calibration sample is sparse; probability was shrunk toward even rather than clamped",
          "season run-differential edge supports the pick"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
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            "home_runs": 7
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          "margin": 4,
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        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": true,
          "min_starter_games": 11,
          "per_starter_career_games": {
            "693645": 29,
            "687312": 11
          },
          "shrink_factor": 0.9458,
          "probability_before": 0.655942,
          "probability_after": 0.647495,
          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": false,
        "sample_size": 0,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "games": 143,
          "wins": 81,
          "losses": 62,
          "win_pct": 0.5664335664335665,
          "runs_scored": 646,
          "runs_allowed": 529,
          "run_differential": 117,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.8181818181818182,
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        },
        "away": {
          "team": "COL",
          "games": 143,
          "wins": 55,
          "losses": 88,
          "win_pct": 0.38461538461538464,
          "runs_scored": 679,
          "runs_allowed": 819,
          "run_differential": -140,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.9790209790209791,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.7972,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1818,
        "quality_edge": 1.5653,
        "season_quality_edge": 2.0699,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.628,
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        "margin_adjustment": 2.5045,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
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          "cap": 4.0,
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          "quality_edge": 1.5653,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.0699,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
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          "home_runs": 9.844,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
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      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
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        "home_distribution": {
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          "9": 0.007562494661467728
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
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        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.551636072201702,
      "home_runs": 6.441938306743169,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 7,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 2,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_HOU@PHI

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickHOU

Published scoreHOU 3 - 2 PHI

Final confidence55.4%

Calibrationraw 66.4% → blended 60.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.5% · weight 50.0% · n=523

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4439

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.478315400849428-3.8612540904051698	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-2	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-2	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-2	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "confidence": -0.10724,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.55362,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44638,
    "away_win_probability": 0.55362
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.10724,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "HOU wins 3-2",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 2,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 2 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.5536197,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.664294,
    "sample_size": 523,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5449,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.604597,
    "published_confidence": 0.55362,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.5903,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.172,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4439
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.045192165794279045
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.04109312063367256
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.04107782965133855
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 1,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.040452858924797504
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03713706090394833
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.1431752182682135,
      "1": 0.2174459629840068,
      "2": 0.24292112527171877,
      "3": 0.19962257761971464,
      "4": 0.12066587702672643,
      "5": 0.0536524709756995,
      "6": 0.017547910980316366,
      "7": 0.004221740712973059,
      "8": 0.0007471161606309075
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07897082641686098,
      "1": 0.12713353109182057,
      "2": 0.1691624002964253,
      "3": 0.18603637597894984,
      "4": 0.16909945401163054,
      "5": 0.12703893448479928,
      "6": 0.07888270274440119,
      "7": 0.04048340421117418,
      "8": 0.017172066823968685,
      "9": 0.006020303939969411
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 2 PHI",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "score_text": "HOU 3 - 2 PHI",
      "winner": "HOU"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0668,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.172,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "model_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner": "HOU",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "HOU",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "HOU",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 2
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 2
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4439,
      "winner": "HOU",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 2,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "HOU",
    "display_confidence": 0.5536,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5725,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5536,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.4439,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.172,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0668,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
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    },
    {
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      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 2,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
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    }
  ]
}

20260908_LAA@BOS

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickBOS

Published scoreLAA 3 - 4 BOS

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 65.6% → blended 60.4%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.2% · weight 50.0% · n=484

H2H base featurehome net 15.0 · absolute 15.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.036

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.643523323189689-3.6383005047915247	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.054546,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.527273,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.527273,
    "away_win_probability": 0.472727
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.054546,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "BOS wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 BOS",
    "confidence": 0.5272730456,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.656303,
    "sample_size": 484,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5517,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
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          "reason": "inexperienced starter (debut/thin history): confidence shrunk toward 0.5 by career-games factor; winner unchanged"
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": true,
        "sample_size": 4,
        "sample_weight": 0.05,
        "home_net_margin": 15.0,
        "absolute_net_margin": 15.0,
        "home_average_margin": 3.75,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0937,
        "away_run_delta": -0.0937,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 7.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 3.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "home": {
          "team": "BOS",
          "games": 145,
          "wins": 80,
          "losses": 65,
          "win_pct": 0.5517241379310345,
          "runs_scored": 647,
          "runs_allowed": 558,
          "run_differential": 89,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.6137931034482759,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "LAA",
          "games": 144,
          "wins": 54,
          "losses": 90,
          "win_pct": 0.375,
          "runs_scored": 579,
          "runs_allowed": 659,
          "run_differential": -80,
          "run_differential_per_game": -0.5555555555555556,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 1.1693,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.1767,
        "quality_edge": 1.036,
        "season_quality_edge": 1.4344,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.4344,
          "recent_quality_edge": 0.296,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.036
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.4351,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 0.4351,
          "cap": 1.4,
          "scale": 0.42,
          "quality_edge": 1.036,
          "season_quality_edge": 1.4344,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": false,
          "method": "standard_bounded_season_recent_adjustment"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 3.701,
          "home_runs": 3.033,
          "home_win_probability": 0.4432
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02998806011499144
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.028317831887050875
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.027486270581866087
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02740407562708409
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 2,
            "probability": 0.026839172329494308
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04588380867926422,
          "1": 0.07813712770058073,
          "2": 0.11482430780541761,
          "3": 0.1456091412104769,
          "4": 0.1593389151063541,
          "5": 0.1504643045847147,
          "6": 0.12260933011816882,
          "7": 0.08621681357636778,
          "8": 0.052316517547634736,
          "9": 0.0273945453947909,
          "10": 0.012378493108536196,
          "11": 0.0048266951676933945
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07448234261384046,
          "1": 0.12366767612193215,
          "2": 0.16844078743463228,
          "3": 0.18820298917546466,
          "4": 0.17250193126719734,
          "5": 0.12970287331689412,
          "6": 0.0800006330230588,
          "7": 0.040478595998178935,
          "8": 0.016801406849765638,
          "9": 0.00572076419903556
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.643523323189689,
      "home_runs": 3.6383005047915247,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_MIN@DET

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickDET

Published scoreMIN 5 - 6 DET

Final confidence54.0%

Calibrationraw 57.4% → blended 56.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.8% · weight 50.0% · n=231

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3104

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.152734836109879-5.481814143734425	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	3-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-6	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-6	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-6	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-6	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-6	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "confidence": 0.08,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.54,
    "away_win_probability": 0.46
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.08,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 6,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 5 - 6 DET",
    "confidence": 0.54,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.573834,
    "sample_size": 231,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5584,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.566117,
    "published_confidence": 0.54,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -13.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -10.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 11.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6736,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.364,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.3104
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020710673557422336
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.020453003352620604
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020211264014681006
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.019959807174152595
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.01879326283579025
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037633783761405054,
      "1": 0.06271187252488038,
      "2": 0.0925398664230475,
      "3": 0.12092474607161476,
      "4": 0.13992931756304347,
      "5": 0.14338689628991108,
      "6": 0.13011202275547248,
      "7": 0.1045520635873237,
      "8": 0.07439692847257447,
      "9": 0.04687967785241623,
      "10": 0.026159018660927576,
      "11": 0.012926039921469505,
      "12": 0.005656095768352496,
      "13": 0.0021916703475615257
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03918289796612051,
      "1": 0.06520707234736793,
      "2": 0.09584127809627208,
      "3": 0.12441428206869518,
      "4": 0.1426420675935902,
      "5": 0.14443909515656048,
      "6": 0.12917594258612883,
      "7": 0.10203243840457536,
      "8": 0.07117945172839792,
      "9": 0.04385617564327082,
      "10": 0.023865284882116092,
      "11": 0.011469968750167338,
      "12": 0.004868751319482474,
      "13": 0.0018252934572548164
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 6 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 6 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0233,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.294,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667,
        "draw_majority_team": "DET",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3104,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 6,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "DET",
    "display_confidence": 0.54,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5703,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.54,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3104,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.364,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0233,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.6667,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 5,
        "median": 10,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 9
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-07T06:03:40.049218+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
      "config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-31a39524087cf556-registry-c5dd20fd32e9",
      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:c5dd20fd32e9ebe45f16addb575ad4faadd7a5edc0d355378189ce15bb8142a6"
    },
    "changes": [
      {
        "parameter": "score.variance_multiplier",
        "old_value": 1.65,
        "new_value": 1.75,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
      "artifact_replay"
    ],
    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T22:36:10.523182+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-08T22:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.582467,
      "confidence": 0.582467,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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    {
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      "home_runs": 6,
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    },
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    },
    {
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      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
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    }
  ]
}

20260908_NYM@MIA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYM

Published scoreNYM 6 - 5 MIA

Final confidence53.4%

Calibrationraw 54.7% → blended 55.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.5% · weight 50.0% · n=463

H2H base featurehome net 2.0 · absolute 2.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.1572

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.0358635536233685-3.9527499942750897	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.067348,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.533674,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.466326,
    "away_win_probability": 0.533674
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.067348,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYM wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 5 MIA",
    "confidence": 0.53367428,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.546773,
    "sample_size": 463,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.550937,
    "published_confidence": 0.533674,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": 2.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 2.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.4,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0115,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0115,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.4249,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.34,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.1572
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  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019253970352101864
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01841911273602787
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      {
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03363318650921657,
      "1": 0.05623903360654361,
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      "3": 0.11147740907690594,
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      "5": 0.13968454256484578,
      "6": 0.13165391144937627,
      "7": 0.11064258141526588,
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      "10": 0.033007041487914175,
      "11": 0.017535073825612132,
      "12": 0.008306378461509467,
      "13": 0.00350847953540356
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03208507061043777,
      "1": 0.053723014982609354,
      "2": 0.08042590596423159,
      "3": 0.10764893848126737,
      "4": 0.12882547347949194,
      "5": 0.13783894766425991,
      "6": 0.13186221179395824,
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      "13": 0.004206771952825461
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "NYM 6 - 5 MIA",
      "winner": "NYM"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0524,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.27,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
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    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 5.0358635536233685,
      "home_runs": 3.9527499942750897,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_PIT@CHW

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickCHW

Published scorePIT 3 - 4 CHW

Final confidence51.9%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=564

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.129

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.2041203457693275-4.874678288052321	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	3-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	3-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	3-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	3-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	3-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": 0.038552,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.519276,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.519276,
    "away_win_probability": 0.480724
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.038552,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "CHW wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 3,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.5192763,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.459897,
    "sample_size": 564,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.500348,
    "published_confidence": 0.519276,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.2092,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.129
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.0348360810248452
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 2,
        "probability": 0.03202656313451646
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03187681127515537
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.03152556962557181
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.03118089096731418
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07785723362578204,
      "1": 0.12546045515990262,
      "2": 0.16741485023060135,
      "3": 0.1849951438360337,
      "4": 0.16928010021206663,
      "5": 0.12827166036927243,
      "6": 0.08048867070167279,
      "7": 0.041823273616592355,
      "8": 0.01799618798544458,
      "9": 0.006412424262631487
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.08153290417962557,
      "1": 0.1309698480352845,
      "2": 0.17312110183228643,
      "3": 0.18830808367446328,
      "4": 0.16854978093344258,
      "5": 0.12414455994393667,
      "6": 0.07524323628597858,
      "7": 0.03752731670534998,
      "8": 0.015401670588908052,
      "9": 0.005201497820724458
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHW",
      "winner": "CHW"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0233,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "model_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner": "CHW",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "CHW",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "CHW",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.129,
      "winner": "CHW",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 3,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "CHW",
    "display_confidence": 0.5193,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5913,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5193,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.129,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.02,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0233,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.6667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 1,
        "median": 4,
        "max": 7,
        "range": 6
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
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    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
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      "parameters": {
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        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
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        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
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        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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        "risk_tier": "low",
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    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T22:39:37.411553+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-08T23:40:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.522678,
      "confidence": 0.522678,
      "predicted_score": {
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "home_win_probability": 0.522785,
      "confidence": 0.522785,
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            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
            "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
            "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
            "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
            "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
            "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
            "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
            "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
            "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
            "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
            "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
            "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "diagnostics": {
      "confidence_calibration": {
        "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
        "applied": true,
        "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
        "raw_confidence": 0.459897,
        "sample_size": 564,
        "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408,
        "empirical_weight": 0.5,
        "blended_confidence": 0.500348
      },
      "confidence_governor": {
        "applied": true,
        "policy": "align_to_calibrated_probability_v2",
        "raw_confidence": 0.500348,
        "final_confidence": 0.5228,
        "calibrated_pick_probability": 0.5228,
        "shrinkage_weight": 0.979897,
        "hard_maximum": 0.9,
        "confidence_floor": 0.505,
        "score_gap": 0.098,
        "calibration_sample_size": 564,
        "calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408,
        "calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.5395,
        "calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.129,
        "reasons": [
          "confidence aligned to the calibrated pick probability"
        ],
        "score_coherence": {
          "policy": "probability_follows_published_score_v1",
          "published_score": {
            "away_runs": 3,
            "home_runs": 4
          },
          "margin": 1,
          "probability_before": 0.522785,
          "margin_implied_home_probability": 0.584361,
          "shrinkage_weight": 0.979897,
          "side_flipped": false,
          "applied": false,
          "magnitude_pull_suppressed": true,
          "probability_after": 0.522785,
          "aligned_pick_probability": 0.522785
        },
        "starter_experience": {
          "applied": false,
          "min_starter_games": 27,
          "shrink_factor": 1.0
        }
      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
        "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
        "available": false,
        "sample_size": 0,
        "home_net_margin": 0.0,
        "home_average_margin": 0.0,
        "home_run_delta": 0.0,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "CHW",
          "games": 143,
          "wins": 75,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5244755244755245,
          "runs_scored": 680,
          "runs_allowed": 631,
          "run_differential": 49,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.34265734265734266,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "PIT",
          "games": 144,
          "wins": 71,
          "losses": 73,
          "win_pct": 0.4930555555555556,
          "runs_scored": 694,
          "runs_allowed": 668,
          "run_differential": 26,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.18055555555555555,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.1621,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0314,
        "quality_edge": 0.129,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.2092,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.2092,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.02,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.129
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.0364762656930734
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 2,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
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          {
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            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.03281071974423356
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          {
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            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.03243037544900908
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07559828654316662,
          "1": 0.12539432915543577,
          "2": 0.17027785669451986,
          "3": 0.18930094770408004,
          "4": 0.1722906604711334,
          "5": 0.12837634833738032,
          "6": 0.07831097564375473,
          "7": 0.03910880859449764,
          "8": 0.015989720469901908,
          "9": 0.005352066386129871
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07930289513815897,
          "1": 0.1310999449550618,
          "2": 0.17624847012638833,
          "3": 0.19268929255491105,
          "4": 0.17131649810705146,
          "5": 0.12386544700144671,
          "6": 0.07283003856430978,
          "7": 0.03482413079849724,
          "8": 0.013541270404176627,
          "9": 0.004282012349998126
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.2041203457693275,
      "home_runs": 4.874678288052321,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 3,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_STL@SF

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickSTL

Published scoreSTL 6 - 5 SF

Final confidence52.6%

Calibrationraw 54.9% → blended 54.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.8% · weight 50.0% · n=422

H2H base featurehome net 1.0 · absolute 1.0 · n=1

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3914

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.16019561608865-4.491058078271438	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.052062,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.526031,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.473969,
    "away_win_probability": 0.526031
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.052062,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "STL wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "STL 6 - 5 SF",
    "confidence": 0.526031386,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.549075,
    "sample_size": 422,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5379,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.543488,
    "published_confidence": 0.526031,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 1,
    "sample_weight": 0.0167,
    "home_net_margin": 1.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 1.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0083,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0083,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.5655,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.068,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3914
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018558414757863545
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018324911472596402
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.018078218882172436
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017850757455329547
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 7,
        "probability": 0.01697923736201861
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.037399163010566186,
      "1": 0.06233341655331551,
      "2": 0.09203680357233764,
      "3": 0.12038813031974573,
      "4": 0.1395042244367732,
      "5": 0.14320975282165663,
      "6": 0.13023849773933713,
      "7": 0.1049271091884508,
      "8": 0.0748889229401401,
      "9": 0.047350983949963024,
      "10": 0.026522959269132323,
      "11": 0.013161230507978225,
      "12": 0.00578565535275029,
      "13": 0.0022531503378532243
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.026166703516178724,
      "1": 0.04404092632001934,
      "2": 0.06696412344187444,
      "3": 0.0919827191001163,
      "4": 0.11414282338689248,
      "5": 0.12795854410430385,
      "6": 0.12958904259107892,
      "7": 0.11856201849020269,
      "8": 0.09799438678588167,
      "9": 0.07317034903484322,
      "10": 0.04935684215079867,
      "11": 0.030077235536028413,
      "12": 0.016557958120561732,
      "13": 0.00823481704509933,
      "14": 0.003699810169073063,
      "15": 0.0015017002070470342
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 6 - 5 SF",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "STL 6 - 5 SF",
      "winner": "STL"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0369,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.282,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "STL",
      "model_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner": "STL",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "STL",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "SF",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3914,
      "winner": "STL",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "STL",
    "display_confidence": 0.526,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.541,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.526,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.3914,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.068,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0369,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.5,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.5,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 4,
        "median": 7,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-07T06:03:40.049218+00:00",
      "parameters": {
        "confidence.empirical_max_weight": 0.5,
        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
        "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
        "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
        "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0
      }
    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
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    },
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}

20260908_TB@ATL

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTB

Published scoreTB 6 - 5 ATL

Final confidence52.2%

Calibrationraw 49.8% → blended 51.9%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.1% · weight 50.0% · n=599

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.3279

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.703295176486882-3.556237231864648	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	6-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	6-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
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  "published_prediction": {
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    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.043016,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.521508,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.478492,
    "away_win_probability": 0.521508
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.043016,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5215084,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
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    "raw_confidence": 0.497537,
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    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5409,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.519219,
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    "published_after_governors": true,
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  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
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    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
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    "season_quality_edge": 0.4915,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.024,
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    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
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    "pre_simulation_score": {
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      "winner": "TB"
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    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0334,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.024,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
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    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
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    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
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      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
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        "away_runs": 6,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
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    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
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        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
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          "0": 0.030896840034929353,
          "1": 0.05333569463911514,
          "2": 0.08164170685842732,
          "3": 0.11081445751595752,
          "4": 0.1333739466439725,
          "5": 0.14234289981711956,
          "6": 0.13470721096827568,
          "7": 0.11304103066917177,
          "8": 0.0841146421419464,
          "9": 0.055500554662513385,
          "10": 0.032472316703775844,
          "11": 0.01684687887678288,
          "12": 0.0077502526751718264,
          "13": 0.0031615677928408825
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.703295176486882,
      "home_runs": 3.556237231864648,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_TEX@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTEX

Published scoreTEX 5 - 4 SEA

Final confidence52.5%

Calibrationraw 60.2% → blended 57.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 53.9% · weight 50.0% · n=397

H2H base featurehome net -6.0 · absolute 6.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.303

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.5640659761889655-4.724116432478015	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.049616,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.524808,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.475192,
    "away_win_probability": 0.524808
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.049616,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TEX wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 12)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.5248077600000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.601611,
    "sample_size": 397,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.539,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.570306,
    "published_confidence": 0.524808,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -6.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 6.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.2,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0346,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0346,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
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    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2292,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.44,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.303
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026083588063459756
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.025714196679189096
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024356459098455196
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      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.024230378059999245
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        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.024011527023910052
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06014197944107035,
      "1": 0.09835088962779562,
      "2": 0.13716505006754018,
      "3": 0.1631448011556961,
      "4": 0.16548842031235586,
      "5": 0.1431616122647202,
      "6": 0.10562096958110033,
      "7": 0.06645663053132936,
      "8": 0.035660800265602755,
      "9": 0.016319560205819168,
      "10": 0.006369281088392825,
      "11": 0.002120005458577249
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    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05000451398137971,
      "1": 0.08247025245940647,
      "2": 0.1179845427771856,
      "3": 0.14641736270287023,
      "4": 0.15761578975874893,
      "5": 0.147179234972954,
      "6": 0.11921558553960906,
      "7": 0.08376434706256154,
      "8": 0.05105344527336006,
      "9": 0.02699172118396491,
      "10": 0.012378721135944938,
      "11": 0.004924483152014714
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    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 SEA",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 SEA",
      "winner": "TEX"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0536,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.51,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TEX",
      "model_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner": "TEX",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 3,
        "published_winner": "TEX",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "TEX",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "winner": "TEX",
      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TEX",
    "display_confidence": 0.5248,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.6392,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5248,
    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "neutral_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.303,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.44,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0536,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 1.0,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.3333,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 7,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 2
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
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    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
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      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-09T01:40:00+00:00",
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    "champion_reference": {
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    "candidate_prediction": {
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      "confidence": 0.535359,
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.1875,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      "score_distribution": {
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    },
    "validity": {
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  "score_evolution": [
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      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260908_TOR@OAK

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 5 - 4 OAK

Final confidence56.0%

Calibrationraw 71.2% → blended 63.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.1% · weight 50.0% · n=316

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.9508

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	5.3457818557016-4.15784106124647	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.12,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.44,
    "away_win_probability": 0.56
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.12,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 OAK",
    "confidence": 0.56,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.711845,
    "sample_size": 316,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5506,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.631222,
    "published_confidence": 0.56,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 4,
    "sample_weight": 0.05,
    "home_net_margin": -4.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 4.0,
    "home_average_margin": -1.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.025,
    "away_run_delta": 0.025,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -1.1655,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.552,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.9508
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02157510862687754
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.021157093634463636
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02048389332010684
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.020087020485819243
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.01975984635143551
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    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.053713078365785434,
      "1": 0.08831119815194247,
      "2": 0.12516601578745934,
      "3": 0.15292975636525163,
      "4": 0.1610766105007723,
      "5": 0.14625404457846972,
      "6": 0.11447699088881998,
      "7": 0.07724376651194008,
      "8": 0.04493074263844472,
      "9": 0.022529869106955876,
      "10": 0.009738871991964323,
      "11": 0.003629055112194083
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.029471976637471392,
      "1": 0.04945888647104903,
      "2": 0.0745440516149139,
      "3": 0.10090559386151651,
      "4": 0.12267359171517189,
      "5": 0.13394315015570865,
      "6": 0.1313480186147957,
      "7": 0.11568049341579445,
      "8": 0.09150194554933531,
      "9": 0.06500310673359742,
      "10": 0.04147357647682472,
      "11": 0.023765253573974767,
      "12": 0.012230578688599378,
      "13": 0.005653080229648458,
      "14": 0.0023466962615984258
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 OAK",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0177,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.727,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333,
        "draw_majority_team": "OAK",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9508,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TOR",
    "display_confidence": 0.56,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5711,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.56,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.9508,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.552,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0177,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.3333,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1667,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.3333,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.1667,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 9,
        "max": 13,
        "range": 10
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
      "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
      "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "config_hash": "sha256:77b48e255ea4a5c12453f385020a95612bfd01fcf6d9ccc6baa8aeb6377b834b",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-07T06:03:40.049218+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
        "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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        "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
        "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
        "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
        "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
        "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
        "confidence.floor": 0.505,
        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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  ]
}

20260908_WAS@SD

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSD

Published scoreWAS 4 - 5 SD

Final confidence52.1%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.3% · weight 50.0% · n=575

H2H base featurehome net -4.0 · absolute 4.0 · n=4

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0414

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.976514872938351-4.791886036787606	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.042102,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.521051,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.521051,
    "away_win_probability": 0.478949
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.042102,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SD wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 SD",
    "confidence": 0.5210507600000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 575,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52635,
    "published_confidence": 0.521051,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
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        "home_run_delta": -0.025,
        "away_run_delta": 0.025,
        "evidence": [
          {
            "home_margin": 1.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -2.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": -5.0
          },
          {
            "home_margin": 2.0
          }
        ],
        "adaptive_parameters": {
          "h2h.history_limit": 5,
          "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
          "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
          "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
        }
      },
      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
        "applied": false,
        "home": {
          "team": "SD",
          "games": 144,
          "wins": 76,
          "losses": 68,
          "win_pct": 0.5277777777777778,
          "runs_scored": 605,
          "runs_allowed": 596,
          "run_differential": 9,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.0625,
          "available": true
        },
        "away": {
          "team": "WAS",
          "games": 146,
          "wins": 67,
          "losses": 79,
          "win_pct": 0.4589041095890411,
          "runs_scored": 750,
          "runs_allowed": 742,
          "run_differential": 8,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.0547945205479452,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0077,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0689,
        "quality_edge": 0.0414,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.111,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.111,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.088,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": 0.0414
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.0232020654819956
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.022996551010948982
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.022672620040105215
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02247179518171496
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02064586023446293
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03984553507843163,
          "1": 0.06822031079528312,
          "2": 0.10188218041153896,
          "3": 0.13271905324922534,
          "4": 0.15080607125309553,
          "5": 0.149470292333402,
          "6": 0.12922348483664953,
          "7": 0.09744925435022418,
          "8": 0.06410119102530164,
          "9": 0.03677936140838445,
          "10": 0.01840741385756903,
          "11": 0.008035851008964359,
          "12": 0.003060000391930366
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04168900610406173,
          "1": 0.0712641347576823,
          "2": 0.10592583311894088,
          "3": 0.13690337572559197,
          "4": 0.15385365648214472,
          "5": 0.1503428864084265,
          "6": 0.12774365628042156,
          "7": 0.09437939682712207,
          "8": 0.060631239845470246,
          "9": 0.03386858850817425,
          "10": 0.016450501517014104,
          "11": 0.006947724424949848
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.976514872938351,
      "home_runs": 4.791886036787606,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260908	20260908_ARI@KC	ARI	57.4%	62.3%	55.1%	50.0%	5.0-3.0	5-3	hit	Variance Applied (0.6062)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.6225, "sample_size": 227, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5507, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5866, "published_confidence": 0.573649, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": -1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0083, "away_run_delta": 0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.7483, "recent_quality_edge": -0.264, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.5788 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024933096943755746 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024092699394398776 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024027835754602468 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02321795103269764 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.022899581331060424 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06896097269856737, "1": 0.11195011217127791, "2": 0.1527395285267383, "3": 0.1751395044268684, "4": 0.16878060739924147, "5": 0.13669943910643728, "6": 0.09305006437467268, "7": 0.053231950712082914, "8": 0.025593745263190425, "9": 0.01034191735501202, "10": 0.0035121579659112877 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.036353298315320116, "1": 0.06064463299186435, "2": 0.08978452243054554, "3": 0.11796987920530164, "4": 0.13756290719926623, "5": 0.1423613537411079, "6": 0.13075052031235146, "7": 0.10657498872955586, "8": 0.07709526719700645, "9": 0.04949492761889572, "10": 0.02820033204551626, "11": 0.0142596315281591, "12": 0.006399159538929879, "13": 0.0025485791461795156 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 3 KC", "winner": "ARI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ARI 5 - 3 KC", "winner": "ARI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0056, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.614, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "ARI", "model_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner": "ARI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "ARI", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "ARI", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.5788, "winner": "ARI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_CHC@MIL	MIL	54.0%	51.0%	55.2%	50.0%	4.0-6.0	3-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (-2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 259, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5521, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5311, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -5.0, "absolute_net_margin": 5.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.0288, "away_run_delta": 0.0288, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -14.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.3448, "recent_quality_edge": -0.324, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1107 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01939890172166698 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01845820073157156 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018397901423246533 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018228484840611344 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018210353057545217 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.032643116706648254, "1": 0.05463068115619416, "2": 0.08166482919674384, "3": 0.1090402768375087, "4": 0.13004458635724098, "5": 0.13853230314684623, "6": 0.13181452723353856, "7": 0.11202860882054039, "8": 0.08504485681130637, "9": 0.057666103940356685, "10": 0.03492581999795691, "11": 0.01889409336768689, "12": 0.00912975130964715, "13": 0.0039404451177849215 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03394904367827583, "1": 0.05675159959694466, "2": 0.08454603447429734, "3": 0.11224653696855684, "4": 0.13280585831121636, "5": 0.14003161198514014, "6": 0.13158291912095685, "7": 0.11018881656322092, "8": 0.08223185626459063, "9": 0.05468991425246962, "10": 0.03241447293385001, "11": 0.017121241746533993, "12": 0.00805927783483815, "13": 0.003380816269108571 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.1211, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.254, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "MIL", "model_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner": "MIL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "MIL", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "MIL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 2, "simulation_margin": 2, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 2, "final_margin": 2, "winner_quality_edge": 0.1107, "winner": "MIL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_CIN@LAD	LAD	67.2%	92.0%	80.0%	5.0%	3.0-9.0	2-3	hit	Enhanced Prediction (3.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 10, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8, "empirical_weight": 0.05, "blended_confidence": 0.914, "published_confidence": 0.671836, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 3.0, "home_run_delta": 0.025, "away_run_delta": -0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.0139, "recent_quality_edge": 0.24, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.393 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0192449645063928 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.01878750859521976 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018379750075365506 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01806841119343184 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017638922144325258 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.010394664867656313, "1": 0.017773217260810947, "2": 0.02833323558001723, "3": 0.042111514480678285, "4": 0.05835527410216544, "5": 0.07539350453228318, "6": 0.09081598841188086, "7": 0.10199180126171972, "8": 0.10679299703077334, "9": 0.10425451026207162, "10": 0.09489022913252645, "11": 0.08052351106164855, "12": 0.06370866079161432, "13": 0.046994692664565484, "14": 0.03232017596134566, "15": 0.020723980946883973, "16": 0.012389312775934223, "17": 0.006905510896522697, "18": 0.003588549801223144, "19": 0.0017386681776783988 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07337834568622924, "1": 0.11867785891660676, "2": 0.160117392984192, "3": 0.18020811327963007, "4": 0.16919097408817235, "5": 0.13250951470921055, "6": 0.08657329710330956, "7": 0.047183252355110124, "8": 0.021451556577402324, "9": 0.008135734552417104, "10": 0.0025739597477199517 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 9 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 9, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 9 LAD", "winner": "LAD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0122, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.59, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 9, "winner": "LAD", "model_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner": "LAD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "LAD", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "LAD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 6, "simulation_margin": 6, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 9 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 9 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 6, "final_margin": 6, "winner_quality_edge": 1.393, "winner": "LAD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 9, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_CLE@BAL	CLE	50.5%	50.9%	53.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	9-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.50895, "sample_size": 397, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.539, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.523975, "published_confidence": 0.505141, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -0.8, "home_run_delta": -0.0231, "away_run_delta": 0.0231, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.1069, "recent_quality_edge": -0.068, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.0933 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025469453819045116 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024085756441320386 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.023809702990368407 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023590746269882633 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023243685582908756 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.053038528181183174, "1": 0.087251469212695, "2": 0.12387396885696672, "3": 0.15177958985959533, "4": 0.16049914247121944, "5": 0.1464731686212251, "6": 0.11536377419799987, "7": 0.07841639157919698, "8": 0.046001317553840425, "9": 0.02328947542560817, "10": 0.010175954611779293, "11": 0.003837219428690521 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05107668033042484, "1": 0.08416259842129822, "2": 0.12008036560453701, "3": 0.1483478517315938, "4": 0.15868903364148676, "5": 0.14698362811572593, "6": 0.11788197538499973, "7": 0.08186197917080597, "8": 0.049223610967086516, "9": 0.025628376349235215, "10": 0.01155380703711083, "11": 0.004510093245695159 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "CLE" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "CLE" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0221, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.138, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CLE", "model_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner": "CLE", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "CLE", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.2, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0933, "winner": "CLE", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_COL@NYY	NYY	64.5%	92.0%	80.0%	5.0%	2.0-8.0	3-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.92, "sample_size": 10, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.8, "empirical_weight": 0.05, "blended_confidence": 0.914, "published_confidence": 0.644809, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.0699, "recent_quality_edge": 0.628, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.5653 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019899057347931754 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019819098826483948 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018851963446900596 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018776212364965104 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.018503711729498815 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.013377162787635363, "1": 0.02279665687027715, "2": 0.0359795777807016, "3": 0.05259188204988204, "4": 0.0711965767845527, "5": 0.08926418880747128, "6": 0.10365092030159939, "7": 0.11146712818484314, "8": 0.11101923024657122, "9": 0.10240646181206359, "10": 0.08748513387666433, "11": 0.06921797824838165, "12": 0.05072024109624384, "13": 0.034420839510457595, "14": 0.021634126131148422, "15": 0.01259316826611286, "16": 0.006789040588405329, "17": 0.0033896866569885146 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07185180474034428, "1": 0.11635890979126369, "2": 0.15759737532362653, "3": 0.17851951218240455, "4": 0.1691257660791158, "5": 0.1340050720160113, "6": 0.08880145269695289, "7": 0.049215996020953966, "8": 0.022812866615072733, "9": 0.008843838801874396, "10": 0.002867405732379893 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 2 - 8 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 2 - 8 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.067, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.628, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 4, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 6, "simulation_margin": 6, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 6, "final_margin": 6, "winner_quality_edge": 1.5653, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_HOU@PHI	HOU	55.4%	66.4%	54.5%	50.0%	3.0-2.0	6-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.664294, "sample_size": 523, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5449, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.604597, "published_confidence": 0.55362, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.5903, "recent_quality_edge": 0.172, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4439 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.045192165794279045 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.04109312063367256 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.04107782965133855 }, { "home_runs": 1, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.040452858924797504 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03713706090394833 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.1431752182682135, "1": 0.2174459629840068, "2": 0.24292112527171877, "3": 0.19962257761971464, "4": 0.12066587702672643, "5": 0.0536524709756995, "6": 0.017547910980316366, "7": 0.004221740712973059, "8": 0.0007471161606309075 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07897082641686098, "1": 0.12713353109182057, "2": 0.1691624002964253, "3": 0.18603637597894984, "4": 0.16909945401163054, "5": 0.12703893448479928, "6": 0.07888270274440119, "7": 0.04048340421117418, "8": 0.017172066823968685, "9": 0.006020303939969411 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 2 PHI", "winner": "HOU" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 2 PHI", "winner": "HOU" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0668, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.172, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "winner": "HOU", "model_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner": "HOU", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "HOU", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "HOU", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.4439, "winner": "HOU", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_LAA@BOS	BOS	52.7%	65.6%	55.2%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	6-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.656303, "sample_size": 484, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5517, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.604001, "published_confidence": 0.527273, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": 15.0, "absolute_net_margin": 15.0, "home_average_margin": 3.75, "home_run_delta": 0.0937, "away_run_delta": -0.0937, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 7.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 1.4344, "recent_quality_edge": 0.296, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.036 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.028551868138353545 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02705006720405289 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026300489662249 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.026226328553030583 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.02571629360860278 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.047997931394393005, "1": 0.07928831522856378, "2": 0.11398104816482295, "3": 0.14259125471776488, "4": 0.15523509873491434, "5": 0.14706988113210592, "6": 0.12125351805461367, "7": 0.08699649231718387, "8": 0.0543182693123277, "9": 0.029513919828987396, "10": 0.01395547586419792, "11": 0.00574247607186085, "12": 0.0020563191782636417 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.07674950796437663, "1": 0.1237928184854091, "2": 0.16566030374687976, "3": 0.18392662723209174, "4": 0.16942360250088007, "5": 0.12948109645028927, "6": 0.08209977672484262, "7": 0.043189754459531916, "8": 0.018850490069108154, "9": 0.006826022366590856 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0176, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.646, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "BOS", "model_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner": "BOS", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 1, "published_winner": "BOS", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "BOS", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 1.036, "winner": "BOS", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_MIN@DET	DET	54.0%	57.4%	55.8%	50.0%	5.0-6.0	3-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.573834, "sample_size": 231, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5584, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.566117, "published_confidence": 0.54, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": -13.0 }, { "home_margin": -10.0 }, { "home_margin": 11.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6736, "recent_quality_edge": -0.364, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3104 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020710673557422336 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.020453003352620604 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020211264014681006 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.019959807174152595 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01879326283579025 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.037633783761405054, "1": 0.06271187252488038, "2": 0.0925398664230475, "3": 0.12092474607161476, "4": 0.13992931756304347, "5": 0.14338689628991108, "6": 0.13011202275547248, "7": 0.1045520635873237, "8": 0.07439692847257447, "9": 0.04687967785241623, "10": 0.026159018660927576, "11": 0.012926039921469505, "12": 0.005656095768352496, "13": 0.0021916703475615257 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03918289796612051, "1": 0.06520707234736793, "2": 0.09584127809627208, "3": 0.12441428206869518, "4": 0.1426420675935902, "5": 0.14443909515656048, "6": 0.12917594258612883, "7": 0.10203243840457536, "8": 0.07117945172839792, "9": 0.04385617564327082, "10": 0.023865284882116092, "11": 0.011469968750167338, "12": 0.004868751319482474, "13": 0.0018252934572548164 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 6 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 6 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0233, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.294, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3104, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_NYM@MIA	NYM	53.4%	54.7%	55.5%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	7-5	hit	Variance Applied (-0.0831)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.546773, "sample_size": 463, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5551, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.550937, "published_confidence": 0.533674, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": 2.0, "absolute_net_margin": 2.0, "home_average_margin": 0.4, "home_run_delta": 0.0115, "away_run_delta": -0.0115, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4249, "recent_quality_edge": -0.34, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.1572 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019253970352101864 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01841911273602787 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.01821537005918029 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018147036610065684 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017994927333682503 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03363318650921657, "1": 0.05623903360654361, "2": 0.0838514929641329, "3": 0.11147740907690594, "4": 0.1321496599317359, "5": 0.13968454256484578, "6": 0.13165391144937627, "7": 0.11064258141526588, "8": 0.08291134294455524, "9": 0.05539986622698252, "10": 0.033007041487914175, "11": 0.017535073825612132, "12": 0.008306378461509467, "13": 0.00350847953540356 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03208507061043777, "1": 0.053723014982609354, "2": 0.08042590596423159, "3": 0.10764893848126737, "4": 0.12882547347949194, "5": 0.13783894766425991, "6": 0.13186221179395824, "7": 0.11278386391961936, "8": 0.08624854714624884, "9": 0.058970500373345405, "10": 0.036049234200231366, "11": 0.01970314165462122, "12": 0.00962837777685223, "13": 0.004206771952825461 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 5 MIA", "winner": "NYM" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 5 MIA", "winner": "NYM" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0524, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.27, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "NYM", "model_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner": "NYM", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "NYM", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6667, "draw_majority_team": "NYM", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.1572, "winner": "NYM", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_PIT@CHW	CHW	51.9%	46.0%	54.1%	50.0%	3.0-4.0	9-3	miss	Variance Applied (0.3294)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.459897, "sample_size": 564, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5408, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.500348, "published_confidence": 0.519276, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.2092, "recent_quality_edge": -0.02, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.129 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.0348360810248452 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 2, "probability": 0.03202656313451646 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03187681127515537 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.03152556962557181 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.03118089096731418 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07785723362578204, "1": 0.12546045515990262, "2": 0.16741485023060135, "3": 0.1849951438360337, "4": 0.16928010021206663, "5": 0.12827166036927243, "6": 0.08048867070167279, "7": 0.041823273616592355, "8": 0.01799618798544458, "9": 0.006412424262631487 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.08153290417962557, "1": 0.1309698480352845, "2": 0.17312110183228643, "3": 0.18830808367446328, "4": 0.16854978093344258, "5": 0.12414455994393667, "6": 0.07524323628597858, "7": 0.03752731670534998, "8": 0.015401670588908052, "9": 0.005201497820724458 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0233, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.02, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "CHW", "model_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner": "CHW", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "CHW", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "CHW", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.129, "winner": "CHW", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_STL@SF	STL	52.6%	54.9%	53.8%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	1-2	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.549075, "sample_size": 422, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5379, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.543488, "published_confidence": 0.526031, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 1, "sample_weight": 0.0167, "home_net_margin": 1.0, "absolute_net_margin": 1.0, "home_average_margin": 1.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0083, "away_run_delta": -0.0083, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.5655, "recent_quality_edge": -0.068, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3914 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018558414757863545 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018324911472596402 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018078218882172436 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017850757455329547 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 7, "probability": 0.01697923736201861 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.037399163010566186, "1": 0.06233341655331551, "2": 0.09203680357233764, "3": 0.12038813031974573, "4": 0.1395042244367732, "5": 0.14320975282165663, "6": 0.13023849773933713, "7": 0.1049271091884508, "8": 0.0748889229401401, "9": 0.047350983949963024, "10": 0.026522959269132323, "11": 0.013161230507978225, "12": 0.00578565535275029, "13": 0.0022531503378532243 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.026166703516178724, "1": 0.04404092632001934, "2": 0.06696412344187444, "3": 0.0919827191001163, "4": 0.11414282338689248, "5": 0.12795854410430385, "6": 0.12958904259107892, "7": 0.11856201849020269, "8": 0.09799438678588167, "9": 0.07317034903484322, "10": 0.04935684215079867, "11": 0.030077235536028413, "12": 0.016557958120561732, "13": 0.00823481704509933, "14": 0.003699810169073063, "15": 0.0015017002070470342 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 6 - 5 SF", "winner": "STL" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 6 - 5 SF", "winner": "STL" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0369, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.282, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "STL", "model_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner": "STL", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "STL", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "SF", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.3914, "winner": "STL", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_TB@ATL	TB	52.2%	49.8%	54.1%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	7-1	hit	Variance Applied (-0.1471)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.497537, "sample_size": 599, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5409, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.519219, "published_confidence": 0.521508, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.4915, "recent_quality_edge": 0.024, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.3279 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020069483851723156 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019853937241173496 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.019052831317205414 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01887498124033939 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.018848203572808017 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03940782688469333, "1": 0.06556885069267579, "2": 0.09631773793969244, "3": 0.12491327534291877, "4": 0.14302255636374536, "5": 0.14457529761007212, "6": 0.12902601143205608, "7": 0.10166092755665362, "8": 0.07071710643369464, "9": 0.04342986854991106, "10": 0.023547573770253714, "11": 0.011271908011876964, "12": 0.00476367719336426, "13": 0.0017773822183918735 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.03287987650837112, "1": 0.055015526719409014, "2": 0.08218906069283201, "3": 0.10962671568270646, "4": 0.13055467671418045, "5": 0.13881682544311066, "6": 0.13178483207132655, "7": 0.1117023708221115, "8": 0.08453430735667615, "9": 0.05711856006781211, "10": 0.03445840307607652, "11": 0.018560372471741325, "12": 0.00892589702758598, "13": 0.0038325753460601575 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0334, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.024, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3279, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_TEX@SEA	TEX	52.5%	60.2%	53.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	10-5	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.601611, "sample_size": 397, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.539, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.570306, "published_confidence": 0.524808, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -6.0, "absolute_net_margin": 6.0, "home_average_margin": -1.2, "home_run_delta": -0.0346, "away_run_delta": 0.0346, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2292, "recent_quality_edge": -0.44, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.303 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026083588063459756 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.025714196679189096 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024356459098455196 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.024230378059999245 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.024011527023910052 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06014197944107035, "1": 0.09835088962779562, "2": 0.13716505006754018, "3": 0.1631448011556961, "4": 0.16548842031235586, "5": 0.1431616122647202, "6": 0.10562096958110033, "7": 0.06645663053132936, "8": 0.035660800265602755, "9": 0.016319560205819168, "10": 0.006369281088392825, "11": 0.002120005458577249 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05000451398137971, "1": 0.08247025245940647, "2": 0.1179845427771856, "3": 0.14641736270287023, "4": 0.15761578975874893, "5": 0.147179234972954, "6": 0.11921558553960906, "7": 0.08376434706256154, "8": 0.05105344527336006, "9": 0.02699172118396491, "10": 0.012378721135944938, "11": 0.004924483152014714 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 SEA", "winner": "TEX" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 5 - 4 SEA", "winner": "TEX" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0536, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.51, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TEX", "model_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner": "TEX", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 3, "published_winner": "TEX", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "TEX", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.303, "winner": "TEX", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_TOR@OAK	TOR	56.0%	71.2%	55.1%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	4-2	hit	Variance Applied (-0.1879)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.711845, "sample_size": 316, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5506, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.631222, "published_confidence": 0.56, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.025, "away_run_delta": 0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -3.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -1.1655, "recent_quality_edge": -0.552, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.9508 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02157510862687754 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.021157093634463636 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02048389332010684 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.020087020485819243 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.01975984635143551 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.053713078365785434, "1": 0.08831119815194247, "2": 0.12516601578745934, "3": 0.15292975636525163, "4": 0.1610766105007723, "5": 0.14625404457846972, "6": 0.11447699088881998, "7": 0.07724376651194008, "8": 0.04493074263844472, "9": 0.022529869106955876, "10": 0.009738871991964323, "11": 0.003629055112194083 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.029471976637471392, "1": 0.04945888647104903, "2": 0.0745440516149139, "3": 0.10090559386151651, "4": 0.12267359171517189, "5": 0.13394315015570865, "6": 0.1313480186147957, "7": 0.11568049341579445, "8": 0.09150194554933531, "9": 0.06500310673359742, "10": 0.04147357647682472, "11": 0.023765253573974767, "12": 0.012230578688599378, "13": 0.005653080229648458, "14": 0.0023466962615984258 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 OAK", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0177, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.727, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.3333, "draw_majority_team": "OAK", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.9508, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260908	20260908_WAS@SD	SD	52.1%	51.0%	54.3%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	4-5	hit	Variance Applied (0.1846)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 575, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5426, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52635, "published_confidence": 0.521051, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 4, "sample_weight": 0.05, "home_net_margin": -4.0, "absolute_net_margin": 4.0, "home_average_margin": -1.0, "home_run_delta": -0.025, "away_run_delta": 0.025, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.111, "recent_quality_edge": -0.088, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0414 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022058019961524573 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02187375684186218 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021583130706897987 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02140283460583945 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019759212920670365 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.04198013351076592, "1": 0.0697000426858398, "2": 0.10173354524067196, "3": 0.13053808004255832, "4": 0.14724893721217414, "5": 0.1460188835362316, "6": 0.12729395630027096, "7": 0.09755475715667043, "8": 0.0657250652972737, "9": 0.038927409778638865, "10": 0.020268513282404536, "11": 0.009277483432041342, "12": 0.003733192524458326 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.043735390247751964, "1": 0.07250647586170418, "2": 0.10535899493320539, "3": 0.13418917171672956, "4": 0.14980087720253424, "5": 0.14657579956450478, "6": 0.125707508388575, "7": 0.09449551496472758, "8": 0.06226044276983279, "9": 0.035955409948957254, "10": 0.018199829346597314, "11": 0.008074607445856391, "12": 0.003139977609023387 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 SD", "winner": "SD" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0243, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.088, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SD", "model_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner": "SD", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "SD", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.8, "draw_majority_team": "SD", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.0414, "winner": "SD", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.5333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.0667 }
R	{ "mae": 1.9667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1 }
ER	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1333 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.3, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.4333 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.3, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.5667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.9333, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.2 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 2.9333, "mae_innings": 0.9778, "bias_outs": 0.2 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260908

20260908_ARI@KC

away

Corbin Burnes

True

1.1

3.0

-1

2/2

0/2

4/2

Last 10 before this game (0 available)

No pregame recent-game rows were available.

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": null,
      "WHIP": null,
      "IP": null,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": null,
      "role_avg_IP": null,
      "recent_avg_IP": null,
      "last_start_IP": null,
      "projection_source": "league_average_stable_fallback"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": null,
      "sample_weight": null,
      "run_prevention_factor": null,
      "strikeout_factor": null,
      "walk_factor": null,
      "homer_factor": null,
      "regression_flag": null,
      "k_percent": null,
      "bb_percent": null,
      "woba": null,
      "xwoba": null,
      "barrel_percent": null,
      "hard_hit_percent": null,
      "whiff_percent": null
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": null,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {},
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 0.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.0,
        "prior_weight": 1.0
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669203",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 0,
      "reference_playing_time": 0.1,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 0,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 0.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
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            "BB": 0.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.0,
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            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": null,
            "WHIP": null,
            "ER_per_IP": null,
            "H_per_IP": null,
            "BB_per_IP": null,
            "SO_per_IP": null,
            "HR_per_IP": null
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 0,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 0.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.0,
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            "H": 0.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": null,
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            "ER_per_IP": null,
            "H_per_IP": null,
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          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 0,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 0.0,
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            "H": 0.0,
            "BB": 0.0,
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            "BF": 0.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 0.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": null,
            "WHIP": null,
            "ER_per_IP": null,
            "H_per_IP": null,
            "BB_per_IP": null,
            "SO_per_IP": null,
            "HR_per_IP": null
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 0.1,
        "predicted_ER": 0.167,
        "predicted_H": 0.324,
        "predicted_BB": 0.124,
        "predicted_SO": 0.313,
        "predicted_HR": 0.049,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4998,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3451
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.7725,
      "form_weight": 0.2275,
      "form_reliability": 0.0,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 0.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.0,
        "prior_weight": 1.0
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 0.1,
          "form": 0.1,
          "final": 0.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.167,
          "final": 0.8105,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.324,
          "final": 1.6187,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.124,
          "final": 0.0282,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 0.313,
          "final": 4.7062,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.049,
          "final": 0.0111,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4998,
          "final": 4.4998,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3451,
          "final": 1.3451,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": null,
    "recent_form_boost": null,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 0.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 0.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.0,
          "prior_weight": 1.0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669203",
      "player_name": "Corbin Burnes",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ARI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 1.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 0.1,
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              "percent_delta": 10.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 0.1,
              "after": 1.1,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 10.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -2.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.3333,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 1.1,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 10.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 1.1,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 10.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -2.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.3333,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.531,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 641.0,
        "run_differential": 0.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4207,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4207,
        "offense_index": 0.9889,
        "defense_index": 1.0112,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0614
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4414,
        "runs_scored": 621.0,
        "runs_allowed": 710.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6138,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2828,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8966,
        "offense_index": 0.9581,
        "defense_index": 0.9129,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1603
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2217,
        "offense_edge": -0.0111,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0419,
        "defense_strength": 0.0112,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0871,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0109,
        "run_prevention": 0.9811,
        "strikeout": 1.01
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 1.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 6,
      "Pitches": 23,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "NO_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "No prior appearances in the source dataset",
      "detail": "The model had no row-level pitching history before this game; any precise box-score line should carry a strong uncertainty warning."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_ARI@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_ARI@KC

home

Michael Wacha

True

6.1

6.0

-1

-3

7/3

1/4

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.3622641509433966,
      "WHIP": 1.1037735849056605,
      "IP": 176.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.31,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0298,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9726,
      "walk_factor": 0.94,
      "homer_factor": 0.9827,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.1,
      "bb_percent": 6.2,
      "woba": 0.301,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 22.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 16,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 32.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 127.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 0.6,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0306,
            "WHIP": 0.8878,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33673,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79592,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.09184,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94898,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21429
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 62.0,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 24.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 52.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 248.0,
            "Pitches": 959.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 1.3,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 1.1,
            "BF": 24.8,
            "Pitches": 95.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1935,
            "WHIP": 1.0,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35484,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79032,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20968,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83871,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17742
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 176.2,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 70.0,
            "H": 151.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 143.0,
            "HR": 24.0,
            "BF": 712.0,
            "Pitches": 2633.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 2.3571,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 5.3929,
            "BB": 1.5714,
            "SO": 5.1071,
            "HR": 0.8571,
            "BF": 25.4286,
            "Pitches": 94.0357
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3623,
            "WHIP": 1.1038,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37358,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85472,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24906,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80943,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13585
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.41,
        "predicted_H": 5.369,
        "predicted_BB": 1.266,
        "predicted_SO": 5.758,
        "predicted_HR": 1.161,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.3578,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0271
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.41,
          "final": 3.0683,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 5.369,
          "final": 6.4583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.266,
          "final": 1.1559,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.758,
          "final": 5.4442,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.161,
          "final": 1.0943,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.3578,
          "final": 3.3578,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.0271,
          "final": 1.0271,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 62.0,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 13,
        "SO": 52,
        "HR": 11,
        "ERA": 3.193548387096774,
        "WHIP": 1.0,
        "K9": 7.548387096774194,
        "HR9": 1.596774193548387,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.857580961571928,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.1,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "608379",
      "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "KC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.1,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "KC",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4414,
        "runs_scored": 621.0,
        "runs_allowed": 710.0,
        "run_differential": -89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.6138,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2828,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8966,
        "offense_index": 0.9581,
        "defense_index": 0.9129,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.1,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1603
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ARI",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 77,
        "losses": 68,
        "win_pct": 0.531,
        "runs_scored": 641.0,
        "runs_allowed": 641.0,
        "run_differential": 0.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4207,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4207,
        "offense_index": 0.9889,
        "defense_index": 1.0112,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0614
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2217,
        "offense_edge": -0.0419,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0111,
        "defense_strength": -0.0871,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0112,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.989,
        "run_prevention": 1.018,
        "strikeout": 0.9942
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "608379",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "608379",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 604.0,
            "k_percent": 20.1,
            "bb_percent": 6.2,
            "woba": 0.301,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.484,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5566,
            "whiff_percent": 22.1,
            "swing_percent": 48.9
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1511,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1171,
            "regression_edge": -0.1143,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4143,
            "bb_edge": 0.75,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.162
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "608379",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.98359735962079,
              "release_spin_rate": 1984.113597852512,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.98359735962079,
                "release_spin_rate": 1984.113597852512,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9836,
              "release_spin_rate": 1984.1136,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.162,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1571,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0298,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9975,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9726,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 0.9827,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.004,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608379",
            "espn_id": 32640,
            "player_name": "Michael Wacha",
            "team": "KC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 16,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 16,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 248,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 17,
              "qs_value": 19.0,
              "qs_rank": 3,
              "era_value": 3.3622,
              "era_rank": 19.0,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 56,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 176.2,
              "ip_rank": 4,
              "h_value": 151.0,
              "h_rank": 15,
              "er_value": 66.0,
              "er_rank": 45,
              "hr_value": 24.0,
              "hr_rank": 15,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 63,
              "k_value": 143.0,
              "k_rank": 37,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.284906,
              "k_per_9_rank": 249,
              "whip_value": 1.1037,
              "whip_rank": 15.0,
              "war_value": 3.64,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9975,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9827,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9726,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_ARI@KC.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_CHC@MIL

away

David Peterson

True

4.0

4.1

-1

7/6

1/3

8/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.3858267716535435,
      "WHIP": 1.5590551181102361,
      "IP": 127.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3591,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0305,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
      "walk_factor": 1.01,
      "homer_factor": 1.0325,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.5,
      "bb_percent": 9.7,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 6.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 836,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.0,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 26.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 394.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 78.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5714,
            "WHIP": 1.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61905,
            "H_per_IP": 1.2381,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.61905,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19048,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14286
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 217.0,
            "Pitches": 837.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.7,
            "Pitches": 83.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2617,
            "WHIP": 1.3893,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36242,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92617,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46309,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90604,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12081
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 127.0,
            "ER": 76.0,
            "R": 83.0,
            "H": 142.0,
            "BB": 56.0,
            "SO": 113.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 579.0,
            "Pitches": 2134.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.7143,
            "R": 2.9643,
            "H": 5.0714,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.0357,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.6786,
            "Pitches": 76.2143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3858,
            "WHIP": 1.5591,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59843,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11811,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44094,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88976,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11024
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.444,
        "predicted_H": 5.087,
        "predicted_BB": 2.368,
        "predicted_SO": 4.769,
        "predicted_HR": 0.616,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.6916,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.59
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.444,
          "final": 2.2602,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.087,
          "final": 5.879,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.368,
          "final": 1.8016,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.769,
          "final": 6.1067,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.616,
          "final": 0.361,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.6916,
          "final": 4.6916,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.59,
          "final": 1.59,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 3.261744966442953,
        "WHIP": 1.389261744966443,
        "K9": 8.154362416107382,
        "HR9": 1.087248322147651,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8749846203725342,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 8.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 8,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "656849",
      "player_name": "David Peterson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHC",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 8.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "percent_delta": -0.2,
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 8.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHC",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5586,
        "runs_scored": 771.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": 131.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.9034,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.3172,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4138,
        "offense_index": 1.1874,
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        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.4,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1608
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIL",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 89,
        "losses": 56,
        "win_pct": 0.6138,
        "runs_scored": 730.0,
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        "run_differential": 169.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1655,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.0345,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.869,
        "offense_index": 1.1242,
        "defense_index": 1.1575,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.5,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2399
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0791,
        "offense_edge": 0.1874,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1242,
        "defense_strength": 0.0146,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1575,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9923,
        "run_prevention": 1.0224,
        "strikeout": 0.9877
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "656849",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "656849",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 503.0,
            "k_percent": 19.5,
            "bb_percent": 9.7,
            "woba": 0.339,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2358,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.5237,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 46.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4723,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3357,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": -0.125,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0559
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "656849",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 67,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 67,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.87843836354706,
              "release_spin_rate": 2125.964579008083,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 67,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.87843836354706,
                "release_spin_rate": 2125.964579008083,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.8784,
              "release_spin_rate": 2125.9646,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0559,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3992,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3591,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0305,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9686,
          "walk_factor": 1.01,
          "homer_factor": 1.0325,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "656849",
            "espn_id": 40921,
            "player_name": "David Peterson",
            "team": "CHC",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 836,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 836,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 248,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 101,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 138,
              "era_value": 5.3858,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 83,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 56,
              "sv_value": 1.0,
              "sv_rank": 137,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 267,
              "ip_value": 127.0,
              "ip_rank": 85,
              "h_value": 142.0,
              "h_rank": 27,
              "er_value": 76.0,
              "er_rank": 14,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 106,
              "bb_value": 56.0,
              "bb_rank": 22,
              "k_value": 113.0,
              "k_rank": 81,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.0078745,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.559,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.99,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0305,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0305,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.01,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0325,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9686,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 87,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_CHC@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_CHC@MIL

home

Jacob Misiorowski

True

6.0

6.1

-2

4/4

3/2

10/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 1.9741935483870967,
      "WHIP": 0.7935483870967742,
      "IP": 155.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 26,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.962,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 1.3893,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.8819,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.16,
      "walk_factor": 0.948,
      "homer_factor": 0.8393,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 38.3,
      "bb_percent": 6.6,
      "woba": 0.218,
      "xwoba": 0.224,
      "barrel_percent": 3.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.1,
      "whiff_percent": 37.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 8,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 6.0,
      "season_IP": 155.0,
      "season_ERA": 1.974,
      "season_WHIP": 0.794,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 26.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8387,
        "prior_weight": 0.1613
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694819",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 26,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 469.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 93.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5357,
            "WHIP": 1.0714,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39286,
            "H_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.14286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 35.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 81.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 216.0,
            "Pitches": 885.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.5,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 8.1,
            "HR": 0.9,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8929,
            "WHIP": 0.8393,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21429,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.44643,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16071
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 26,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 155.0,
            "ER": 34.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 84.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 227.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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    "team_form_snapshot": {
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.1655,
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      "opponent": {
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      "edges": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694819",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "694819",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694819",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 91,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Jacob Misiorowski",
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            "metrics": {
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              "era_value": 1.9741,
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              "whip_value": 0.7935,
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              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 112,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_CHC@MIL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_CIN@LAD

away

Nick Lodolo

True

4.0

4.2

-3

6/5

3/3

5/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.08235294117647,
      "WHIP": 1.5176470588235293,
      "IP": 85.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.467,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.8668,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0737,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.96,
      "walk_factor": 0.998,
      "homer_factor": 1.1313,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.377,
      "xwoba": 0.382,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 205,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 19.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 429.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 5.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 85.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4478,
            "WHIP": 1.6567,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.71642,
            "H_per_IP": 1.29851,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35821,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85075,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.31343
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.0,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 39.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 212.0,
            "Pitches": 865.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.9,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.2,
            "Pitches": 86.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9787,
            "WHIP": 1.5745,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55319,
            "H_per_IP": 1.14894,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42553,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.82979,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17021
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 85.0,
            "ER": 48.0,
            "R": 48.0,
            "H": 94.0,
            "BB": 35.0,
            "SO": 69.0,
            "HR": 16.0,
            "BF": 383.0,
            "Pitches": 1516.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.8235,
            "R": 2.8235,
            "H": 5.5294,
            "BB": 2.0588,
            "SO": 4.0588,
            "HR": 0.9412,
            "BF": 22.5294,
            "Pitches": 89.1765
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0824,
            "WHIP": 1.5176,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41176,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.81176,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18824
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.805,
        "predicted_H": 5.4,
        "predicted_BB": 1.814,
        "predicted_SO": 4.02,
        "predicted_HR": 1.017,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3967,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5421
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 2.805,
          "final": 4.2301,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.4,
          "final": 5.6676,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.814,
          "final": 2.343,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.02,
          "final": 4.4571,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.017,
          "final": 0.5634,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3967,
          "final": 5.3967,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5421,
          "final": 1.5421,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.0,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 39,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 4.9787234042553195,
        "WHIP": 1.574468085106383,
        "K9": 7.468085106382978,
        "HR9": 1.5319148936170213,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 2,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.072774853129924,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 17.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7727,
          "prior_weight": 0.2273
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "666157",
      "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.2,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 0.0,
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 144,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4792,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 716.0,
        "run_differential": -108.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2222,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9722,
        "offense_index": 0.9419,
        "defense_index": 0.9015,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -8.0
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        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0747
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 711.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0764,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9375,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8611,
        "offense_index": 1.1015,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2906
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0581,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1015,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
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        "run_prevention": 1.0444,
        "strikeout": 0.9809
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "666157",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "666157",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.377,
            "xwoba": 0.382,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 80.1594,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -2.0286,
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            "bb_edge": 0.025,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.008
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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            "pitcher_id": "666157",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 73,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.73344991310856,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813049186448,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 73,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.73344991310856,
                "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813049186448,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.7334,
              "release_spin_rate": 2279.7813,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.008,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0572,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.8668,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0737,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.96,
          "walk_factor": 0.998,
          "homer_factor": 1.1313,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "666157",
            "espn_id": 42433,
            "player_name": "Nick Lodolo",
            "team": "CIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 205,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 205,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 427,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 119,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 122,
              "era_value": 5.0823,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 242,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 236,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 85.0,
              "ip_rank": 151,
              "h_value": 94.0,
              "h_rank": 122,
              "er_value": 48.0,
              "er_rank": 114,
              "hr_value": 16.0,
              "hr_rank": 80,
              "bb_value": 35.0,
              "bb_rank": 119,
              "k_value": 69.0,
              "k_rank": 181,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.305882,
              "k_per_9_rank": 32,
              "whip_value": 1.5176,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.86,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0737,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0737,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.998,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1313,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.96,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 80,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_CIN@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_CIN@LAD

home

Tarik Skubal

True

6.0

7.1

2/4

4/2

7/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.856423173803526,
      "WHIP": 0.9823677581863979,
      "IP": 132.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.015,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.729,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.938,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0863,
      "walk_factor": 0.9,
      "homer_factor": 0.9572,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 30.5,
      "bb_percent": 4.2,
      "woba": 0.269,
      "xwoba": 0.269,
      "barrel_percent": 7.2,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
      "whiff_percent": 31.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 17,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 495.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 6.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 99.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.0337,
            "WHIP": 1.2135,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33708,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01124,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.20225,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.24719,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03371
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 61.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 75.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 245.0,
            "Pitches": 943.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 7.5,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.5,
            "Pitches": 94.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.627,
            "WHIP": 1.0216,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29189,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82703,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19459,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21622,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03243
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 132.1,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 108.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 159.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 521.0,
            "Pitches": 2011.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 1.9091,
            "R": 2.0909,
            "H": 4.9091,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 7.2273,
            "HR": 0.5455,
            "BF": 23.6818,
            "Pitches": 91.4091
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8564,
            "WHIP": 0.9824,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31738,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81612,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20151,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09068
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.107,
        "predicted_H": 5.519,
        "predicted_BB": 1.354,
        "predicted_SO": 7.045,
        "predicted_HR": 0.381,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.1603,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1455
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.107,
          "final": 1.6329,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.519,
          "final": 4.012,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.354,
          "final": 2.4871,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 7.045,
          "final": 5.3127,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.381,
          "final": 0.2178,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.1603,
          "final": 3.1603,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1455,
          "final": 1.1455,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 61.2,
        "ER": 18,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 75,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 2.627027027027027,
        "WHIP": 1.0216216216216216,
        "K9": 10.945945945945946,
        "HR9": 0.29189189189189185,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.794387849104622,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
          "prior_weight": 0.1852
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 2,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 7,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669373",
      "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "LAD",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 4.0,
              "percent_delta": 1.3333,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 0,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 4.0,
            "percent_delta": 1.3333,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAD",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 87,
        "losses": 57,
        "win_pct": 0.6042,
        "runs_scored": 711.0,
        "runs_allowed": 556.0,
        "run_differential": 155.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 1.0764,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.9375,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8611,
        "offense_index": 1.1015,
        "defense_index": 1.1609,
        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2906
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CIN",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 69,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4792,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 716.0,
        "run_differential": -108.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.75,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2222,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9722,
        "offense_index": 0.9419,
        "defense_index": 0.9015,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 6.8,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0747
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.3653,
        "offense_edge": 0.1015,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0581,
        "defense_strength": 0.1609,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0985,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0218,
        "run_prevention": 0.9563,
        "strikeout": 1.0156
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669373",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669373",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 444.0,
            "k_percent": 30.5,
            "bb_percent": 4.2,
            "woba": 0.269,
            "xwoba": 0.269,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 36.4,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.4459,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6116,
            "whiff_percent": 31.6,
            "swing_percent": 53.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.7572,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1264,
            "regression_edge": 0.0,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.2,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.2143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.9429,
            "bb_edge": 1.25,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1511
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669373",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.57479172715446,
              "release_spin_rate": 2164.2997542296353,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.57479172715446,
                "release_spin_rate": 2164.2997542296353,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5748,
              "release_spin_rate": 2164.2998,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1511,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0794,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.729,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.938,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0863,
          "walk_factor": 0.9,
          "homer_factor": 0.9572,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.0,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669373",
            "espn_id": 42409,
            "player_name": "Tarik Skubal",
            "team": "LAD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 17,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 17,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 360,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
              "gs_rank": 85,
              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 29,
              "era_value": 2.8564,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 63,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 84,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 132.1,
              "ip_rank": 70,
              "h_value": 108.0,
              "h_rank": 102,
              "er_value": 42.0,
              "er_rank": 142,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 130,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 258,
              "k_value": 159.0,
              "k_rank": 24,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.8136015,
              "k_per_9_rank": 9,
              "whip_value": 0.9823,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.63,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9572,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0863,
            "adjusted": 8
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_CIN@LAD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_CLE@BAL

away

Tanner Bibee

True

5.2

4.1

-4

5/6

2/1

5/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.05811623246493,
      "WHIP": 1.1843687374749499,
      "IP": 166.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.736,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.158,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0134,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9783,
      "walk_factor": 0.966,
      "homer_factor": 1.0285,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 19.3,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.307,
      "xwoba": 0.319,
      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.2,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 72,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 125.0,
            "Pitches": 470.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.0,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.0824,
            "WHIP": 1.4471,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.56471,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45882,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77647,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10588
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.0,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 29.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 254.0,
            "Pitches": 964.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.9,
            "H": 5.5,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 25.4,
            "Pitches": 96.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.05,
            "WHIP": 1.2667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.45,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91667,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 166.1,
            "ER": 75.0,
            "R": 79.0,
            "H": 146.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 132.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
            "BF": 684.0,
            "Pitches": 2621.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.5862,
            "R": 2.7241,
            "H": 5.0345,
            "BB": 1.7586,
            "SO": 4.5517,
            "HR": 0.8966,
            "BF": 23.5862,
            "Pitches": 90.3793
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.0581,
            "WHIP": 1.1844,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.4509,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87776,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30661,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79359,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15631
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.892,
        "predicted_H": 5.454,
        "predicted_BB": 2.235,
        "predicted_SO": 4.674,
        "predicted_HR": 0.684,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.5138,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3334
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.892,
          "final": 2.9365,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.454,
          "final": 5.2669,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.235,
          "final": 2.1381,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.674,
          "final": 4.8084,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.684,
          "final": 0.8142,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5138,
          "final": 4.5138,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3334,
          "final": 1.3334,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.0,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 55,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.050000000000001,
        "WHIP": 1.2666666666666668,
        "K9": 7.200000000000001,
        "HR9": 0.9000000000000001,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9605984346902077,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "676440",
      "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CLE",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "after": 5.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
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            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
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              "material": true
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          },
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 145,
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        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5034,
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        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1103,
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        },
        "available": true,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "676440",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "676440",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 96,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.158,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0134,
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            "player_name": "Tanner Bibee",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 72,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 29.0,
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              "hr_rank": 11,
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              "k_per_9_value": 7.1422844,
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              "whip_value": 1.1843,
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              "war_value": 2.04,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_H": 5,
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      "predicted_HR": 1,
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      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 103,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_CLE@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_CLE@BAL

home

Brandon Young

True

5.2

3.2

-6

6/8

2/2

7/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "barrel_percent": 6.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
      "whiff_percent": 23.4
    },
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
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      "player_id": "687064",
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.71591,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23864
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        },
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          },
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          },
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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        },
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        },
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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        "AVG": 0,
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      "pitching": {
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.895024645118513,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687064",
      "player_name": "Brandon Young",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "BAL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 7.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 70,
        "losses": 75,
        "win_pct": 0.4828,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 674.0,
        "run_differential": -27.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1862,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4621,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6483,
        "offense_index": 0.9964,
        "defense_index": 0.9634,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0725
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CLE",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5034,
        "runs_scored": 584.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": -16.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1103,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0276,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1379,
        "offense_index": 0.8994,
        "defense_index": 1.0822,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0107
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0618,
        "offense_edge": -0.0036,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.1006,
        "defense_strength": -0.0366,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0822,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0005,
        "run_prevention": 0.9907,
        "strikeout": 1.0062
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687064",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687064",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 503.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3753,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2035,
            "whiff_percent": 23.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1432,
            "command_and_miss": -0.2293,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0889,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.25,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.076
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687064",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.51860048115898,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.9819103388677,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.51860048115898,
                "release_spin_rate": 2057.9819103388677,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5186,
              "release_spin_rate": 2057.9819,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.076,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5431,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1544,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0131,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
          "homer_factor": 1.0115,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687064",
            "espn_id": 4414339,
            "player_name": "Brandon Young",
            "team": "BAL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 64,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 64,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 336,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 69,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 33,
              "era_value": 3.416,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 9.0,
              "w_rank": 40,
              "l_value": 3.0,
              "l_rank": 236,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 137.0,
              "ip_rank": 62,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 52.0,
              "er_rank": 97,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 45,
              "bb_value": 48.0,
              "bb_rank": 44,
              "k_value": 110.0,
              "k_rank": 84,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.2262774,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.3138,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.13,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0131,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0115,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_CLE@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_COL@NYY

away

Gabriel Hughes

True

4.1

5.0

-4

7/4

2/0

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.19108280254777,
      "WHIP": 1.4331210191082802,
      "IP": 52.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 11,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0703,
      "sample_weight": 0.648,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.994,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9633,
      "walk_factor": 0.9987,
      "homer_factor": 0.9318,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.2,
      "bb_percent": 9.1,
      "woba": 0.326,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 4.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 28.9,
      "whiff_percent": 18.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 392,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687312",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 11,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.4,
            "R": 4.4,
            "H": 5.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 8.7353,
            "WHIP": 1.7647,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.97059,
            "H_per_IP": 1.23529,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17647
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 52.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 41.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 845.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 3.6,
            "H": 5.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.1,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 84.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5676,
            "WHIP": 1.4595,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05405,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40541,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83108,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10135
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 11,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.1,
            "ER": 36.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 898.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 3.2727,
            "R": 3.2727,
            "H": 4.9091,
            "BB": 1.9091,
            "SO": 3.8182,
            "HR": 0.4545,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 81.6364
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1911,
            "WHIP": 1.4331,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.6879,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03185,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40127,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80255,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09554
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.45,
        "predicted_H": 5.135,
        "predicted_BB": 2.054,
        "predicted_SO": 3.775,
        "predicted_HR": 0.655,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.5403,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5145
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.482,
      "form_weight": 0.518,
      "form_reliability": 0.6875,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 11.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.6875,
        "prior_weight": 0.3125
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.45,
          "final": 4.1971,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.135,
          "final": 6.034,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.054,
          "final": 2.028,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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        {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 143,
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        "win_pct": 0.3846,
        "runs_scored": 679.0,
        "runs_allowed": 819.0,
        "run_differential": -140.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.979,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "687312",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.033
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687312",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Gabriel Hughes",
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            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 392,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 11.0,
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              "whip_value": 1.4331,
              "whip_rank": null,
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              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 96,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_COL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_COL@NYY

home

Cam Schlittler

True

6.1

7.0

2/3

3/0

7/10

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 171.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.92,
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    },
    "savant": {
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      "k_percent": 31.0,
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      "woba": 0.25,
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      "barrel_percent": 7.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 2,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
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      {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.28,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 2.0,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6248,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9469,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0726,
          "walk_factor": 0.94,
          "homer_factor": 0.9882,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.018,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "693645",
            "espn_id": 5134581,
            "player_name": "Cam Schlittler",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 2,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 2,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 224,
              "gs_value": 29.0,
              "gs_rank": 5,
              "qs_value": 17.0,
              "qs_rank": 8,
              "era_value": 2.0446,
              "era_rank": 2.0,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 15,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 109,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 171.2,
              "ip_rank": 6,
              "h_value": 119.0,
              "h_rank": 77,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 151,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 86,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 71,
              "k_value": 210.0,
              "k_rank": 5,
              "k_per_9_value": 11.009709,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 0.9378,
              "whip_rank": 4.0,
              "war_value": 6.4,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9469,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9469,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.94,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 8.0,
            "factor": 1.0726,
            "adjusted": 9
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 100,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_COL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_HOU@PHI

away

Hayden Wesneski

True

5.2

6.0

5/5

1/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (7 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.1764705882352944,
      "WHIP": 1.0588235294117647,
      "IP": 39.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 7,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.6,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0443,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9962,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9987,
      "walk_factor": 0.9973,
      "homer_factor": 0.9925,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 20.9,
      "bb_percent": 8.9,
      "woba": 0.266,
      "xwoba": 0.302,
      "barrel_percent": 6.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 174,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.7627118644067797,
        "last_10": 0.23728813559322032
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 7,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.0,
            "ER": 9.0,
            "R": 9.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 25.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 436.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.8,
            "R": 1.8,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.8929,
            "WHIP": 0.9643,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32143,
            "H_per_IP": 0.60714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35714,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89286,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07143
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 158.0,
            "Pitches": 593.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 0.2857,
            "BF": 22.5714,
            "Pitches": 84.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1765,
            "WHIP": 1.0588,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83193,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05042
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 7,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 39.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 158.0,
            "Pitches": 593.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.7143,
            "HR": 0.2857,
            "BF": 22.5714,
            "Pitches": 84.7143
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.1765,
            "WHIP": 1.0588,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "H_per_IP": 0.70588,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83193,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.05042
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.268,
        "predicted_H": 4.382,
        "predicted_BB": 2.056,
        "predicted_SO": 5.124,
        "predicted_HR": 0.566,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.6017,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1361
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5261,
      "form_weight": 0.4739,
      "form_reliability": 0.5833,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 7.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5833,
        "prior_weight": 0.4167
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.268,
          "final": 2.127,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.382,
          "final": 4.7071,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.056,
          "final": 1.5005,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 5.124,
          "final": 4.0067,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.566,
          "final": 0.7943,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.6017,
          "final": 3.6017,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1361,
          "final": 1.1361,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 39.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 28,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 33,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.1764705882352944,
        "WHIP": 1.0588235294117647,
        "K9": 7.487394957983193,
        "HR9": 0.45378151260504207,
        "games_pitched": 7,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 7,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 7,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8571302974353057,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 3.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 7.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5833,
          "prior_weight": 0.4167
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669713",
      "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 3.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.6667,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 2.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.6667,
            "direction": "boost",
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            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5069,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 685.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2639,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4931,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7569,
        "offense_index": 1.0033,
        "defense_index": 0.9414,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0085
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5625,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2431,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4583,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2153,
        "offense_index": 0.9956,
        "defense_index": 1.0624,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1445,
        "offense_edge": 0.0033,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0044,
        "defense_strength": -0.0586,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0624,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9926,
        "run_prevention": 1.0124,
        "strikeout": 0.996
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669713",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669713",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 94.0,
            "k_percent": 20.9,
            "bb_percent": 8.9,
            "woba": 0.266,
            "xwoba": 0.302,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.4307,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9611,
            "whiff_percent": 25.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3854,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0257,
            "regression_edge": -1.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1556,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0857,
            "whiff_edge": 0.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.075,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0966
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669713",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 80,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 80,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.15057794740576,
              "release_spin_rate": 2328.6168589392373,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 80,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.15057794740576,
                "release_spin_rate": 2328.6168589392373,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.1506,
              "release_spin_rate": 2328.6169,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0966,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.6903,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0443,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9962,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9987,
          "walk_factor": 0.9973,
          "homer_factor": 0.9925,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.036,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669713",
            "espn_id": 42996,
            "player_name": "Hayden Wesneski",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 174,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 174,
              "gp_value": 7.0,
              "gp_rank": 582,
              "gs_value": 7.0,
              "gs_rank": 199,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 138,
              "era_value": 3.1764,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 186,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 426,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 39.2,
              "ip_rank": 364,
              "h_value": 28.0,
              "h_rank": 429,
              "er_value": 14.0,
              "er_rank": 439,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 515,
              "bb_value": 14.0,
              "bb_rank": 395,
              "k_value": 33.0,
              "k_rank": 393,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.4873953,
              "k_per_9_rank": 29,
              "whip_value": 1.0588,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.05,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9983,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9983,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9988,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9966,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9994,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 90,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 7 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_HOU@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_HOU@PHI

home

Andrew Painter

True

5.1

5.0

-1

3/10

2/2

4/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.55379746835443,
      "WHIP": 1.3670886075949367,
      "IP": 105.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 21,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.018,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.067,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0231,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.002,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9851,
      "walk_factor": 0.978,
      "homer_factor": 1.0035,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.0,
      "bb_percent": 8.1,
      "woba": 0.334,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.3,
      "whiff_percent": 24.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 213,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 21,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 17.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 477.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 95.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2637,
            "WHIP": 0.8571,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.36264,
            "H_per_IP": 0.56044,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2967,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06593
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 52.0,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 31.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 220.0,
            "Pitches": 849.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.1,
            "H": 4.3,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 84.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.3654,
            "WHIP": 1.2115,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.59615,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82692,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38462,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 21,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 105.1,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 107.0,
            "BB": 37.0,
            "SO": 91.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 456.0,
            "Pitches": 1763.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.0952,
            "R": 3.0952,
            "H": 5.0952,
            "BB": 1.7619,
            "SO": 4.3333,
            "HR": 0.8095,
            "BF": 21.7143,
            "Pitches": 83.9524
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5538,
            "WHIP": 1.3671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61709,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01582,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35127,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.86392,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16139
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.772,
        "predicted_H": 4.406,
        "predicted_BB": 1.926,
        "predicted_SO": 5.121,
        "predicted_HR": 0.68,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4655,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1335
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4312,
      "form_weight": 0.5688,
      "form_reliability": 0.8077,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 21.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8077,
        "prior_weight": 0.1923
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.772,
          "final": 2.4391,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 4.406,
          "final": 3.7997,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.926,
          "final": 1.9579,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.121,
          "final": 4.6376,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.68,
          "final": 0.3868,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4655,
          "final": 4.4655,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1335,
          "final": 1.1335,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 52.0,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 43,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 8,
        "ERA": 5.365384615384616,
        "WHIP": 1.2115384615384617,
        "K9": 8.307692307692308,
        "HR9": 1.3846153846153848,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1072009987927718,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 3.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 21.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8077,
          "prior_weight": 0.1923
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.1,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 3,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "691725",
      "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 3.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 2.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 81,
        "losses": 63,
        "win_pct": 0.5625,
        "runs_scored": 642.0,
        "runs_allowed": 607.0,
        "run_differential": 35.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2431,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4583,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2153,
        "offense_index": 0.9956,
        "defense_index": 1.0624,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.2,
          "run_differential": 12.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.153
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 71,
        "win_pct": 0.5069,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 685.0,
        "run_differential": -38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2639,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4931,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7569,
        "offense_index": 1.0033,
        "defense_index": 0.9414,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 2.8,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0085
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1445,
        "offense_edge": -0.0044,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0033,
        "defense_strength": 0.0624,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0586,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0075,
        "run_prevention": 0.9871,
        "strikeout": 1.0041
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "691725",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "691725",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 380.0,
            "k_percent": 20.0,
            "bb_percent": 8.1,
            "woba": 0.334,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 28.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.7,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 75.6462,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6507,
            "whiff_percent": 24.4,
            "swing_percent": 49.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0673,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1036,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0857,
            "bb_edge": 0.275,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0182
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "691725",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 83,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 83,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.20186596189707,
              "release_spin_rate": 2299.9389803815907,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 83,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.20186596189707,
                "release_spin_rate": 2299.9389803815907,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.2019,
              "release_spin_rate": 2299.939,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0182,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1302,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0231,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.002,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9851,
          "walk_factor": 0.978,
          "homer_factor": 1.0035,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "691725",
            "espn_id": 4872683,
            "player_name": "Andrew Painter",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 213,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 213,
              "gp_value": 21.0,
              "gp_rank": 375,
              "gs_value": 19.0,
              "gs_rank": 101,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 5.5537,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 242,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 56,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 105.1,
              "ip_rank": 116,
              "h_value": 107.0,
              "h_rank": 105,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 49,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 67,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 105,
              "k_value": 91.0,
              "k_rank": 121,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.775316,
              "k_per_9_rank": 28,
              "whip_value": 1.367,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.77,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.002,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.978,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0035,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9851,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 3,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_HOU@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_LAA@BOS

away

Reid Detmers

True

6.1

6.0

-1

-2

5/1

2/1

8/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.4444444444444446,
      "WHIP": 1.0617283950617284,
      "IP": 162.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.786,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.6,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.4418,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9624,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0571,
      "walk_factor": 0.952,
      "homer_factor": 0.9799,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 28.0,
      "bb_percent": 6.8,
      "woba": 0.273,
      "xwoba": 0.28,
      "barrel_percent": 7.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 29.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 22,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "672282",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.0,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 25.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 32.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 454.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 0.6,
            "R": 0.6,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.4,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 90.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.8182,
            "WHIP": 0.9091,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.09091,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75758,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.15152,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.9697,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 57.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 219.0,
            "Pitches": 872.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 21.9,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.1977,
            "WHIP": 0.9767,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.24419,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80233,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.17442,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.13372,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 162.0,
            "ER": 62.0,
            "R": 65.0,
            "H": 128.0,
            "BB": 44.0,
            "SO": 182.0,
            "HR": 17.0,
            "BF": 651.0,
            "Pitches": 2584.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2143,
            "R": 2.3214,
            "H": 4.5714,
            "BB": 1.5714,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 0.6071,
            "BF": 23.25,
            "Pitches": 92.2857
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4444,
            "WHIP": 1.0617,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38272,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79012,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.2716,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.12346,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10494
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.525,
        "predicted_H": 4.975,
        "predicted_BB": 1.304,
        "predicted_SO": 6.396,
        "predicted_HR": 0.501,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.2313,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.0211
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 6.0,
          "final": 6.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.525,
          "final": 1.7217,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.975,
          "final": 4.9854,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.304,
          "final": 1.5922,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 6.396,
          "final": 6.6461,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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        {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          ],
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            "biggest_deboost": null
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "LAA",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 54,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.375,
        "runs_scored": 579.0,
        "runs_allowed": 659.0,
        "run_differential": -80.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5556,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0208,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5764,
        "offense_index": 0.8979,
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        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.1,
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          "run_differential": -5.0
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        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 145,
        "wins": 80,
        "losses": 65,
        "win_pct": 0.5517,
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        "runs_allowed": 558.0,
        "run_differential": 89.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.6138,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4621,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8483,
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        "current_streak": "W5",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1893
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4688,
        "offense_edge": -0.1021,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0036,
        "defense_strength": -0.0214,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1637,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9808,
        "run_prevention": 1.025,
        "strikeout": 0.9862
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "672282",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "672282",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "woba": 0.273,
            "xwoba": 0.28,
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            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.0645,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.288,
            "whiff_percent": 29.0,
            "swing_percent": 49.6
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5117,
            "command_and_miss": 0.7057,
            "regression_edge": -0.2,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.0667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.5714,
            "bb_edge": 0.6,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1029
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "672282",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.03966004092277,
              "release_spin_rate": 2234.6453988776,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 87,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.03966004092277,
                "release_spin_rate": 2234.6453988776,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.0397,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1029,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.4418,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9624,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.007,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "672282",
            "espn_id": 4326697,
            "player_name": "Reid Detmers",
            "team": "LAA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 22,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 22,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 248,
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              "qs_value": 13.0,
              "qs_rank": 29,
              "era_value": 3.4444,
              "era_rank": 21.0,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 186,
              "l_value": 8.0,
              "l_rank": 56,
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              "ip_rank": 16,
              "h_value": 128.0,
              "h_rank": 61,
              "er_value": 62.0,
              "er_rank": 58,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 67,
              "bb_value": 44.0,
              "bb_rank": 63,
              "k_value": 182.0,
              "k_rank": 10,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.111111,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16,
              "whip_value": 1.0617,
              "whip_rank": 9.0,
              "war_value": 3.45,
              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9624,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9624,
            "adjusted": 5
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9799,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 7.0,
            "factor": 1.0571,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 8,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 115,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_LAA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_LAA@BOS

home

Patrick Sandoval

True

5.0

6.0

3/10

4/2

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.408163265306122,
      "WHIP": 1.7346938775510203,
      "IP": 49.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 10,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.9,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.0,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1961,
      "sample_weight": 0.636,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0167,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9996,
      "walk_factor": 1.0229,
      "homer_factor": 1.0086,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.0,
      "bb_percent": 11.0,
      "woba": 0.366,
      "xwoba": 0.35,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.8,
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      "pitching": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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        {
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      "opponent": {
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "663776",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663776",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 87,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
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              "pitches": 87,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.2975,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0106,
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    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 7",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +7."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_LAA@BOS.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_MIN@DET

away

Dean Kremer

True

4.2

5.0

-4

8/5

4/1

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.805,
      "WHIP": 1.305,
      "IP": 66.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 13,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.128,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1093,
      "sample_weight": 0.868,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0093,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0243,
      "walk_factor": 0.9896,
      "homer_factor": 1.0357,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.6,
      "woba": 0.347,
      "xwoba": 0.329,
      "barrel_percent": 8.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 36.8,
      "whiff_percent": 28.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 759,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 13,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 22.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 108.0,
            "Pitches": 448.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 21.6,
            "Pitches": 89.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.6104,
            "WHIP": 1.2857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.62338,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42857,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01299,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11688
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 37.0,
            "R": 38.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 215.0,
            "Pitches": 879.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.7,
            "R": 3.8,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.5,
            "Pitches": 87.9
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.7047,
            "WHIP": 1.4497,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.74497,
            "H_per_IP": 1.02685,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.42282,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92617,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20134
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 13,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 66.2,
            "ER": 43.0,
            "R": 46.0,
            "H": 63.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 66.0,
            "HR": 15.0,
            "BF": 280.0,
            "Pitches": 1133.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.3077,
            "R": 3.5385,
            "H": 4.8462,
            "BB": 1.8462,
            "SO": 5.0769,
            "HR": 1.1538,
            "BF": 21.5385,
            "Pitches": 87.1538
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.805,
            "WHIP": 1.305,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.645,
            "H_per_IP": 0.945,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.99,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.225
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.115,
        "predicted_H": 4.725,
        "predicted_BB": 2.007,
        "predicted_SO": 4.838,
        "predicted_HR": 0.81,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6066,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3464
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4674,
      "form_weight": 0.5326,
      "form_reliability": 0.7222,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 13.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7222,
        "prior_weight": 0.2778
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 3.115,
          "final": 4.4634,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.725,
          "final": 6.2556,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.007,
          "final": 2.9385,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.838,
          "final": 4.4463,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.81,
          "final": 1.3662,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6066,
          "final": 5.6066,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3464,
          "final": 1.3464,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.2,
        "ER": 37,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.704697986577181,
        "WHIP": 1.4496644295302015,
        "K9": 8.335570469798657,
        "HR9": 1.8120805369127517,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2638269022517288,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 6.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 13.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7222,
          "prior_weight": 0.2778
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.2,
          "predicted_ER": 6,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 4,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "665152",
      "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 4.2,
              "delta": -0.8,
              "percent_delta": -0.16,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 6.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.2,
            "predicted_R": 6.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": {
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            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.25,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 4.2,
            "delta": -0.8,
            "percent_delta": -0.16,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 76,
        "win_pct": 0.4722,
        "runs_scored": 670.0,
        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": -49.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3403,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9931,
        "offense_index": 1.039,
        "defense_index": 0.8969,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1004
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4583,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
        "runs_allowed": 581.0,
        "run_differential": 51.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3542,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3889,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0347,
        "offense_index": 0.98,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -18.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0269
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0735,
        "offense_edge": 0.039,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.02,
        "defense_strength": -0.1031,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1099,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9948,
        "run_prevention": 1.0108,
        "strikeout": 0.9994
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "665152",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "665152",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "bb_percent": 8.6,
            "woba": 0.347,
            "xwoba": 0.329,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 38.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.9,
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            "avg_best_speed": 76.7362,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4288,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2979,
            "regression_edge": 0.5143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.5143,
            "barrel_edge": -0.4,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.4714,
            "bb_edge": 0.15,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1836
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "665152",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.5972766860832,
              "release_spin_rate": 2072.2900211030874,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 86.5972766860832,
                "release_spin_rate": 2072.2900211030874,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.5973,
              "release_spin_rate": 2072.29,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1836,
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.3116,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1093,
          "sample_weight": 0.868,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0093,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0243,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "665152",
            "espn_id": 38295,
            "player_name": "Dean Kremer",
            "team": "MIN",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 759,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 759,
              "gp_value": 13.0,
              "gp_rank": 481,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 152,
              "qs_value": 3.0,
              "qs_rank": 138,
              "era_value": 5.805,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 311,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 133,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 66.2,
              "ip_rank": 190,
              "h_value": 63.0,
              "h_rank": 182,
              "er_value": 43.0,
              "er_rank": 138,
              "hr_value": 15.0,
              "hr_rank": 86,
              "bb_value": 24.0,
              "bb_rank": 225,
              "k_value": 66.0,
              "k_rank": 195,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.91,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 1.305,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.44,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0081,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0081,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.991,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.031,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0211,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 6,
      "predicted_ER": 6,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 111,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_MIN@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_MIN@DET

home

Drew Anderson

True

5.0

5.1

-1

6/4

2/3

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "IP": 91.2,
      "games_started": null,
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      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1317,
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      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
      "whiff_percent": 27.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 182,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.0,
      "season_IP": 91.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.731,
      "season_WHIP": 1.298,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "shrinkage": {
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
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      "player_id": "623454",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 46,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "R": 9.0,
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            "SO": 23.0,
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          "per_game": {
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            "H": 4.0,
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            "HR": 0.8,
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            "Pitches": 79.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.3151,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.32877,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82192,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.49315,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.94521,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16438
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 33.1,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 28.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 28.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 139.0,
            "Pitches": 532.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
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            "H": 2.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
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            "Pitches": 53.2
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.26,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.33,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.84,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12
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        },
        "season": {
          "games": 46,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 91.2,
            "ER": 38.0,
            "R": 42.0,
            "H": 82.0,
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            "HR": 13.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2982,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41455,
            "H_per_IP": 0.89455,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.40364,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10182,
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 1.543,
        "predicted_H": 3.542,
        "predicted_BB": 1.762,
        "predicted_SO": 3.824,
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        "predicted_ERA": 3.412,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 1.543,
          "final": 2.6243,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 3.542,
          "final": 4.6237,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.762,
          "final": 1.8667,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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          "form": 3.824,
          "final": 3.9015,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.589,
          "final": 0.7699,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.412,
          "final": 3.412,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3037,
          "final": 1.3037,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 33.1,
        "ER": 11,
        "H": 28,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 28,
        "HR": 4,
        "ERA": 2.9699999999999998,
        "WHIP": 1.26,
        "K9": 7.56,
        "HR9": 1.0799999999999998,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.8389317680235409,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7868,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "623454",
      "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
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        ],
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 144,
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        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4583,
        "runs_scored": 632.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3542,
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        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0347,
        "offense_index": 0.98,
        "defense_index": 1.1099,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
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        },
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_allowed": 719.0,
        "run_differential": -49.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3403,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6528,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9931,
        "offense_index": 1.039,
        "defense_index": 0.8969,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.5,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": 7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1004
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0735,
        "offense_edge": -0.02,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.039,
        "defense_strength": 0.1099,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1031,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0047,
        "run_prevention": 0.9916,
        "strikeout": 0.9991
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "623454",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "623454",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 305.0,
            "k_percent": 25.6,
            "bb_percent": 9.6,
            "woba": 0.319,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 39.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.791,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.2178,
            "whiff_percent": 27.6,
            "swing_percent": 48.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0018,
            "command_and_miss": 0.3414,
            "regression_edge": 0.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3714,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0238
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "623454",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 62,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 62,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.30111562509353,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939147176737,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 62,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.30111562509353,
                "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939147176737,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.3011,
              "release_spin_rate": 2144.0939,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0238,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.1699,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1317,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9888,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0354,
          "walk_factor": 1.008,
          "homer_factor": 1.0189,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.014,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "623454",
            "espn_id": 28617,
            "player_name": "Drew Anderson",
            "team": "MIL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 182,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 182,
              "gp_value": 46.0,
              "gp_rank": 124,
              "gs_value": 8.0,
              "gs_rank": 186,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 208,
              "era_value": 3.7309,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 186,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 133,
              "sv_value": 2.0,
              "sv_rank": 92,
              "hld_value": 6.0,
              "hld_rank": 147,
              "ip_value": 91.2,
              "ip_rank": 137,
              "h_value": 82.0,
              "h_rank": 141,
              "er_value": 38.0,
              "er_rank": 155,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 120,
              "bb_value": 37.0,
              "bb_rank": 105,
              "k_value": 101.0,
              "k_rank": 96,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.916364,
              "k_per_9_rank": 18,
              "whip_value": 1.2981,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.99,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9888,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9888,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.008,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0189,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0354,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 101,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_MIN@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_NYM@MIA

away

Sean Manaea

True

6.1

5.0

-4

6/5

0/0

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.698701298701298,
      "WHIP": 1.3558441558441559,
      "IP": 128.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.689,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3942,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0335,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9811,
      "walk_factor": 0.962,
      "homer_factor": 1.1136,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.7,
      "bb_percent": 7.3,
      "woba": 0.353,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 11.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
      "whiff_percent": 22.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 454,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 30.2,
            "ER": 20.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 6.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 133.0,
            "Pitches": 458.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.6,
            "BF": 26.6,
            "Pitches": 91.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.8696,
            "WHIP": 1.2717,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65217,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07609,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.19565,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88043,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.26087
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 60.1,
            "ER": 31.0,
            "R": 32.0,
            "H": 64.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 54.0,
            "HR": 13.0,
            "BF": 259.0,
            "Pitches": 927.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 3.1,
            "R": 3.2,
            "H": 6.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.3,
            "BF": 25.9,
            "Pitches": 92.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6243,
            "WHIP": 1.3591,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51381,
            "H_per_IP": 1.06077,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.29834,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89503,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.21547
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 128.1,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 74.0,
            "H": 133.0,
            "BB": 41.0,
            "SO": 122.0,
            "HR": 21.0,
            "BF": 562.0,
            "Pitches": 2166.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.3103,
            "R": 2.5517,
            "H": 4.5862,
            "BB": 1.4138,
            "SO": 4.2069,
            "HR": 0.7241,
            "BF": 19.3793,
            "Pitches": 74.6897
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6987,
            "WHIP": 1.3558,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52208,
            "H_per_IP": 1.03636,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31948,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95065,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.16364
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 3.265,
        "predicted_H": 6.051,
        "predicted_BB": 1.576,
        "predicted_SO": 5.22,
        "predicted_HR": 1.233,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.0966,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3229
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 6.1,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 6.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.265,
          "final": 3.5679,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 6.051,
          "final": 6.03,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.576,
          "final": 0.9265,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 5.22,
          "final": 3.8929,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.233,
          "final": 1.9613,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.0966,
          "final": 5.0966,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3229,
          "final": 1.3229,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 60.1,
        "ER": 31,
        "H": 64,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 54,
        "HR": 13,
        "ERA": 4.624309392265194,
        "WHIP": 1.3591160220994476,
        "K9": 8.055248618784532,
        "HR9": 1.9392265193370166,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0275194752058614,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 29.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8529,
          "prior_weight": 0.1471
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "640455",
      "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "NYM",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4583,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2986,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
        "offense_index": 0.9382,
        "defense_index": 0.9952,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0371
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
        "runs_allowed": 625.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3793,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3103,
        "offense_index": 0.9779,
        "defense_index": 1.0389,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0294
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0077,
        "offense_edge": -0.0618,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0221,
        "defense_strength": -0.0048,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0389,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0004,
        "run_prevention": 0.9973,
        "strikeout": 1.0015
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "640455",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "640455",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 479.0,
            "k_percent": 21.7,
            "bb_percent": 7.3,
            "woba": 0.353,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 11.0,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5811,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.6114,
            "whiff_percent": 22.0,
            "swing_percent": 50.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6987,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0743,
            "regression_edge": 0.3714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8667,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4286,
            "bb_edge": 0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2591
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "640455",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 94,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 94,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.24923102451848,
              "release_spin_rate": 2111.7826014761895,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 94,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.24923102451848,
                "release_spin_rate": 2111.7826014761895,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.2492,
              "release_spin_rate": 2111.7826,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2591,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8508,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3942,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0335,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9811,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.013,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "640455",
            "espn_id": 33244,
            "player_name": "Sean Manaea",
            "team": "NYM",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 454,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 454,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 224,
              "gs_value": 15.0,
              "gs_rank": 133,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 4.6987,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 186,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 84,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 128.1,
              "ip_rank": 82,
              "h_value": 133.0,
              "h_rank": 47,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 41,
              "hr_value": 21.0,
              "hr_rank": 29,
              "bb_value": 41.0,
              "bb_rank": 79,
              "k_value": 122.0,
              "k_rank": 62,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.555844,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.3558,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.03,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0335,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0335,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.962,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.1136,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9811,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 3,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 98,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_NYM@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_NYM@MIA

home

Sandy Alcantara

True

6.1

4.1

-6

4/7

3/4

6/1

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 6.522,
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      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1387,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9882,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9526,
      "walk_factor": 0.942,
      "homer_factor": 0.935,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 17.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.3,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 5.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 24,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
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            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 9.0,
            "SO": 14.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 2.8,
            "HR": 0.4,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6562,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.40625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.28125,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.4375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0625
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 65.0,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 265.0,
            "Pitches": 1013.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 26.5,
            "Pitches": 101.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.6308,
            "WHIP": 1.1077,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.29231,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83077,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27692,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64615,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09231
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 30,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 195.2,
            "ER": 77.0,
            "R": 82.0,
            "H": 181.0,
            "BB": 51.0,
            "SO": 142.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 808.0,
            "Pitches": 2961.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.2,
            "ER": 2.5667,
            "R": 2.7333,
            "H": 6.0333,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 4.7333,
            "HR": 0.6333,
            "BF": 26.9333,
            "Pitches": 98.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5417,
            "WHIP": 1.1857,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39353,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92504,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26065,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.72572,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0971
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 6.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.488,
        "predicted_H": 5.974,
        "predicted_BB": 1.878,
        "predicted_SO": 4.033,
        "predicted_HR": 0.58,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.4495,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2099
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4104,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8571,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.1,
          "final": 6.1,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.488,
          "final": 1.8774,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.974,
          "final": 5.1639,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 1.878,
          "final": 2.3384,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.033,
          "final": 4.4298,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.58,
          "final": 0.342,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.4495,
          "final": 3.4495,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2099,
          "final": 1.2099,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 65.0,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 54,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
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        "K9": 5.815384615384615,
        "HR9": 0.8307692307692308,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 7,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7969606141773871,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 6.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 30.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8571,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "645261",
      "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 6.1,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 6.3333,
              "after": 6.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0368,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 6.3333,
            "after": 6.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0368,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIA",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 635.0,
        "runs_allowed": 625.0,
        "run_differential": 10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3793,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3103,
        "offense_index": 0.9779,
        "defense_index": 1.0389,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.3,
          "run_differential": -2.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0294
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYM",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 66,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4583,
        "runs_scored": 605.0,
        "runs_allowed": 648.0,
        "run_differential": -43.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2986,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2014,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
        "offense_index": 0.9382,
        "defense_index": 0.9952,
        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 9.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0371
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0077,
        "offense_edge": -0.0221,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0618,
        "defense_strength": 0.0389,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0048,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0039,
        "run_prevention": 0.9858,
        "strikeout": 1.0052
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "645261",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "645261",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 724.0,
            "k_percent": 17.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.3,
            "woba": 0.295,
            "xwoba": 0.296,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5988,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5432,
            "whiff_percent": 21.1,
            "swing_percent": 51.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3863,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3329,
            "regression_edge": -0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.4286,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.5571,
            "bb_edge": 0.725,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1476
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "645261",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 102,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 102,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 92.51275382443535,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.096491486143,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 102,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.51275382443535,
                "release_spin_rate": 2245.096491486143,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.5128,
              "release_spin_rate": 2245.0965,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1476,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0546,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1387,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9882,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9526,
          "walk_factor": 0.942,
          "homer_factor": 0.935,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "645261",
            "espn_id": 35241,
            "player_name": "Sandy Alcantara",
            "team": "MIA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 24,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 24,
              "gp_value": 30.0,
              "gp_rank": 214,
              "gs_value": 30.0,
              "gs_rank": 1,
              "qs_value": 21.0,
              "qs_rank": 1,
              "era_value": 3.5417,
              "era_rank": 23.0,
              "w_value": 13.0,
              "w_rank": 12,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 28,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 195.2,
              "ip_rank": 1,
              "h_value": 181.0,
              "h_rank": 1,
              "er_value": 77.0,
              "er_rank": 13,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 45,
              "bb_value": 51.0,
              "bb_rank": 33,
              "k_value": 142.0,
              "k_rank": 39,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.5315166,
              "k_per_9_rank": 1053,
              "whip_value": 1.1856,
              "whip_rank": 27.0,
              "war_value": 3.34,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9882,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.942,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.935,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9526,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.1,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 116,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +5; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_NYM@MIA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_PIT@CHW

away

Bubba Chandler

True

5.0

6.0

-1

9/4

1/0

4/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.301470588235294,
      "WHIP": 1.3676470588235294,
      "IP": 136.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.026,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.133,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0502,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0043,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
      "walk_factor": 1.056,
      "homer_factor": 0.9768,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.4,
      "bb_percent": 12.0,
      "woba": 0.308,
      "xwoba": 0.313,
      "barrel_percent": 5.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 131,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 25.2,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 105.0,
            "Pitches": 431.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.0,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 86.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5065,
            "WHIP": 1.1688,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77922,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.8961,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07792
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 213.0,
            "Pitches": 885.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.1,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 21.3,
            "Pitches": 88.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.755,
            "WHIP": 1.3311,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41722,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87417,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45695,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83444,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0596
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 136.0,
            "ER": 65.0,
            "R": 75.0,
            "H": 115.0,
            "BB": 71.0,
            "SO": 121.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 592.0,
            "Pitches": 2334.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4074,
            "R": 2.7778,
            "H": 4.2593,
            "BB": 2.6296,
            "SO": 4.4815,
            "HR": 0.4444,
            "BF": 21.9259,
            "Pitches": 86.4444
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3015,
            "WHIP": 1.3676,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.47794,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84559,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52206,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88971,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.15,
        "predicted_H": 4.244,
        "predicted_BB": 2.145,
        "predicted_SO": 4.419,
        "predicted_HR": 0.425,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.8692,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2778
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.15,
          "final": 2.5036,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 9.0,
          "form": 4.244,
          "final": 6.2225,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.145,
          "final": 1.6687,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.419,
          "final": 4.2447,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.425,
          "final": 0.2482,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.8692,
          "final": 3.8692,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2778,
          "final": 1.2778,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
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        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9290186885533422,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 9.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
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          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696149",
      "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_H": 9.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
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          {
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            "before": 9.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          {
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          {
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
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        ],
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          "biggest_boost": null,
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          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4931,
        "runs_scored": 694.0,
        "runs_allowed": 668.0,
        "run_differential": 26.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.1806,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8194,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6389,
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        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 75,
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        "win_pct": 0.5245,
        "runs_scored": 680.0,
        "runs_allowed": 631.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3427,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7552,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4126,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0629
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0116,
        "offense_edge": 0.0762,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0619,
        "defense_strength": -0.0346,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.996,
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        "strikeout": 0.9947
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696149",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696149",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 526.0,
            "k_percent": 20.4,
            "bb_percent": 12.0,
            "woba": 0.308,
            "xwoba": 0.313,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.8,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.141,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8425,
            "whiff_percent": 21.9,
            "swing_percent": 47.3
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.0811,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3979,
            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.0571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0429,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": -0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.2763
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "696149",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 94.8103538897678,
              "release_spin_rate": 2354.536984834445,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 89,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 94.8103538897678,
                "release_spin_rate": 2354.536984834445,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 94.8104,
              "release_spin_rate": 2354.537,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
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              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.9736,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0502,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0043,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9731,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.005,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "696149",
            "espn_id": 4683325,
            "player_name": "Bubba Chandler",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 131,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 131,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 278,
              "gs_value": 26.0,
              "gs_rank": 50,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 122,
              "era_value": 4.3014,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 6.0,
              "w_rank": 102,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 28,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 136.0,
              "ip_rank": 67,
              "h_value": 115.0,
              "h_rank": 87,
              "er_value": 65.0,
              "er_rank": 49,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 130,
              "bb_value": 71.0,
              "bb_rank": 3,
              "k_value": 121.0,
              "k_rank": 64,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.007353,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.3676,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0043,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.056,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9768,
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          "predicted_SO": {
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            "factor": 0.9731,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 9,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 94,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_PIT@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_PIT@CHW

home

Sean Burke

True

5.2

1.1

-13

2/8

1/2

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.200431034482759,
      "WHIP": 1.144396551724138,
      "IP": 154.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.403,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1936,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9835,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.028,
      "walk_factor": 0.986,
      "homer_factor": 0.9955,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 26.3,
      "bb_percent": 8.5,
      "woba": 0.295,
      "xwoba": 0.296,
      "barrel_percent": 7.7,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 25.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 12,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 154.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.2,
      "season_WHIP": 1.144,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "680732",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 110.0,
            "Pitches": 460.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.0,
            "Pitches": 92.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.8077,
            "WHIP": 1.2692,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.42308,
            "H_per_IP": 0.69231,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88462,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15385
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 36.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 224.0,
            "Pitches": 940.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.6,
            "R": 1.7,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 94.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5714,
            "WHIP": 1.0179,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.28571,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.08929,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 154.2,
            "ER": 55.0,
            "R": 57.0,
            "H": 123.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 167.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 635.0,
            "Pitches": 2550.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 1.9643,
            "R": 2.0357,
            "H": 4.3929,
            "BB": 1.9286,
            "SO": 5.9643,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 22.6786,
            "Pitches": 91.0714
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.1444,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.3556,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79526,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34914,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07974,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11638
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3427,
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      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 694.0,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8,
          "run_differential": -1.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0619,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "680732",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "680732",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "680732",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 85,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "pitches": 85,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "summary": {
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.1936,
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          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Sean Burke",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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              "whip_value": 1.1443,
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              "war_rank": 1.0
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_SO": {
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 81,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -13 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_PIT@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_STL@SF

away

Quinn Mathews

True

5.0

6.0

-2

6/5

4/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (5 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.378378378378378,
      "WHIP": 1.581081081081081,
      "IP": 24.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 5,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1807,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9846,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0041,
      "walk_factor": 1.0135,
      "homer_factor": 0.9346,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.4,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.32,
      "xwoba": 0.283,
      "barrel_percent": 1.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 333,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 5,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 98.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.5811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09459,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04054
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 98.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.5811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09459,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04054
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 27.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 492.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 5.4,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 98.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.5811,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09459,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.97297,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04054
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.466,
        "predicted_H": 5.169,
        "predicted_BB": 2.146,
        "predicted_SO": 4.783,
        "predicted_HR": 0.468,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.4391,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4631
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5613,
      "form_weight": 0.4388,
      "form_reliability": 0.5,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 5.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.5,
        "prior_weight": 0.5
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.466,
          "final": 3.327,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 5.169,
          "final": 5.6354,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.146,
          "final": 3.1866,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 4.783,
          "final": 4.3435,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.468,
          "final": 0.2053,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.4391,
          "final": 4.4391,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4631,
          "final": 1.4631,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 24.2,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 27,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 24,
        "HR": 1,
        "ERA": 4.378378378378378,
        "WHIP": 1.581081081081081,
        "K9": 8.756756756756756,
        "HR9": 0.36486486486486486,
        "games_pitched": 5,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 5,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 5,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0043605311380936,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 5.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.5,
          "prior_weight": 0.5
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "687273",
      "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "STL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 0,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "worse_metrics": 0,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": false,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
        "run_differential": -10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6276,
        "offense_index": 1.017,
        "defense_index": 0.9686,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0114
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4138,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 682.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5103,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1931,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7034,
        "offense_index": 0.9354,
        "defense_index": 0.953,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1359
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1245,
        "offense_edge": 0.017,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0646,
        "defense_strength": -0.0314,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.047,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0066,
        "run_prevention": 0.9866,
        "strikeout": 1.0089
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "687273",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "687273",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 41.0,
            "k_percent": 21.4,
            "bb_percent": 10.7,
            "woba": 0.32,
            "xwoba": 0.283,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 1.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.7,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.4583,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5894,
            "whiff_percent": 27.2,
            "swing_percent": 44.1
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.5459,
            "command_and_miss": -0.0036,
            "regression_edge": 1.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.8,
            "barrel_edge": 1.2889,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -0.375,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.1107
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "687273",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.8989365165491,
              "release_spin_rate": 2078.2117200217035,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.8989365165491,
                "release_spin_rate": 2078.2117200217035,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.8989,
              "release_spin_rate": 2078.2117,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.1107,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.791,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1807,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9846,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0041,
          "walk_factor": 1.0135,
          "homer_factor": 0.9346,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.037,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "687273",
            "espn_id": 4837405,
            "player_name": "Quinn Mathews",
            "team": "STL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 333,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 333,
              "gp_value": 5.0,
              "gp_rank": 623,
              "gs_value": 5.0,
              "gs_rank": 219,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 208,
              "era_value": 4.3783,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 1.0,
              "w_rank": 408,
              "l_value": 2.0,
              "l_rank": 325,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 24.2,
              "ip_rank": 474,
              "h_value": 27.0,
              "h_rank": 438,
              "er_value": 12.0,
              "er_rank": 471,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 610,
              "bb_value": 12.0,
              "bb_rank": 437,
              "k_value": 24.0,
              "k_rank": 451,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.756757,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.581,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.22,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9931,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9931,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0061,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9706,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0018,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 5 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_STL@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_STL@SF

home

Landen Roupp

True

5.2

6.0

-2

5/2

3/4

6/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 4.168202764976959,
      "WHIP": 1.2926267281105992,
      "IP": 144.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.358,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.223,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.981,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
      "walk_factor": 1.038,
      "homer_factor": 0.9015,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.3,
      "bb_percent": 11.1,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 5.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 29.0,
      "whiff_percent": 24.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 185,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694738",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 17.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 115.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
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            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 3.4,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.0,
            "Pitches": 87.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4177,
            "WHIP": 1.2911,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37975,
            "H_per_IP": 0.68354,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60759,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.64557,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07595
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 23.0,
            "H": 37.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 38.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 233.0,
            "Pitches": 911.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.3,
            "H": 3.7,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.8,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.3,
            "Pitches": 91.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5569,
            "WHIP": 1.1677,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39521,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66467,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.50299,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.68263,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08982
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 144.2,
            "ER": 67.0,
            "R": 72.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 68.0,
            "SO": 137.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 614.0,
            "Pitches": 2543.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.4815,
            "R": 2.6667,
            "H": 4.4074,
            "BB": 2.5185,
            "SO": 5.0741,
            "HR": 0.4074,
            "BF": 22.7407,
            "Pitches": 94.1852
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.1682,
            "WHIP": 1.2926,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.46313,
            "H_per_IP": 0.82258,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47005,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.947,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07604
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.266,
        "predicted_H": 4.056,
        "predicted_BB": 2.807,
        "predicted_SO": 4.092,
        "predicted_HR": 0.495,
        "predicted_ERA": 3.7545,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2633
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
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      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.1,
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.266,
          "final": 2.1553,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.056,
          "final": 4.4487,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.807,
          "final": 2.8873,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.092,
          "final": 4.8857,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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          "form": 0.495,
          "final": 0.7051,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 3.7545,
          "final": 3.7545,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2633,
          "final": 1.2633,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.2,
        "ER": 22,
        "H": 37,
        "BB": 28,
        "SO": 38,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 3.5568862275449105,
        "WHIP": 1.1676646706586826,
        "K9": 6.1437125748503,
        "HR9": 0.8083832335329342,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9026480853888104,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694738",
      "player_name": "Landen Roupp",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
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              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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          ],
          "summary": {
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 60,
        "losses": 85,
        "win_pct": 0.4138,
        "runs_scored": 608.0,
        "runs_allowed": 682.0,
        "run_differential": -74.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5103,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1931,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7034,
        "offense_index": 0.9354,
        "defense_index": 0.953,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1359
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "STL",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 661.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
        "run_differential": -10.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.069,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6276,
        "offense_index": 1.017,
        "defense_index": 0.9686,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.8,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0114
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1245,
        "offense_edge": -0.0646,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.017,
        "defense_strength": -0.047,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0314,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9929,
        "run_prevention": 1.0136,
        "strikeout": 0.9949
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694738",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694738",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "bb_percent": 11.1,
            "woba": 0.296,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 32.9,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.0,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.0936,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 92.5674,
            "whiff_percent": 24.9,
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          },
          "league_medians": {
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            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
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            "command_and_miss": -0.0807,
            "regression_edge": -0.0857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.4667,
            "hard_hit_edge": 1.2714,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0143,
            "bb_edge": -0.475,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.161
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694738",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 92,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 92,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 87.00224317148336,
              "release_spin_rate": 2326.4570396123822,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 92,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 87.00224317148336,
                "release_spin_rate": 2326.4570396123822,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 87.0022,
              "release_spin_rate": 2326.457,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.161,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.1496,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.223,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.981,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0011,
          "walk_factor": 1.038,
          "homer_factor": 0.9015,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.003,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "694738",
            "espn_id": 4345404,
            "player_name": "Landen Roupp",
            "team": "SF",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 185,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 185,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 278,
              "gs_value": 27.0,
              "gs_rank": 35,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 56,
              "era_value": 4.1682,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 63,
              "l_value": 13.0,
              "l_rank": 4,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 144.2,
              "ip_rank": 49,
              "h_value": 119.0,
              "h_rank": 77,
              "er_value": 67.0,
              "er_rank": 41,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 144,
              "bb_value": 68.0,
              "bb_rank": 6,
              "k_value": 137.0,
              "k_rank": 45,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.523042,
              "k_per_9_rank": 24,
              "whip_value": 1.2926,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.98,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.981,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.981,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.038,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9015,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0011,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 25,
      "Pitches": 110,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_STL@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_TB@ATL

away

Freddy Peralta

True

5.2

6.0

-2

8/5

1/1

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.959183673469388,
      "WHIP": 1.3741496598639455,
      "IP": 147.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.25,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.1227,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9896,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0069,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 0.9782,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 21.8,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.336,
      "xwoba": 0.305,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 26.4
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 692,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 29.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 427.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 85.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.3371,
            "WHIP": 0.809,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.37079,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64045,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16854,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.80899,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13483
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 51.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 51.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 48.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 221.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.3,
            "H": 5.1,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.1,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2258,
            "WHIP": 1.2968,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58065,
            "H_per_IP": 0.9871,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.30968,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.92903,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.19355
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 147.0,
            "ER": 81.0,
            "R": 89.0,
            "H": 148.0,
            "BB": 54.0,
            "SO": 140.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 643.0,
            "Pitches": 2591.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8929,
            "R": 3.1786,
            "H": 5.2857,
            "BB": 1.9286,
            "SO": 5.0,
            "HR": 0.8214,
            "BF": 22.9643,
            "Pitches": 92.5357
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9592,
            "WHIP": 1.3741,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55102,
            "H_per_IP": 1.0068,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.36735,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.95238,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15646
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.725,
        "predicted_H": 4.826,
        "predicted_BB": 1.551,
        "predicted_SO": 5.012,
        "predicted_HR": 0.889,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.3494,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.131
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.725,
          "final": 2.8389,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.826,
          "final": 6.1401,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.551,
          "final": 1.3229,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.012,
          "final": 4.593,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.889,
          "final": 0.5209,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3494,
          "final": 4.3494,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.131,
          "final": 1.131,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 51.2,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 51,
        "BB": 16,
        "SO": 48,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 5.225806451612903,
        "WHIP": 1.296774193548387,
        "K9": 8.361290322580645,
        "HR9": 1.7419354838709675,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0936293486687023,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "642547",
      "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 8.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
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          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
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            "delta": -0.4667,
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            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5944,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3287,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5245,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1958,
        "offense_index": 1.0103,
        "defense_index": 1.0673,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1556
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5903,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 546.0,
        "run_differential": 119.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8264,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6181,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7917,
        "offense_index": 1.0312,
        "defense_index": 1.1811,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2133
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0577,
        "offense_edge": 0.0103,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0312,
        "defense_strength": 0.0673,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1811,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9985,
        "run_prevention": 1.0011,
        "strikeout": 0.9958
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "642547",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "642547",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 571.0,
            "k_percent": 21.8,
            "bb_percent": 8.4,
            "woba": 0.336,
            "xwoba": 0.305,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.2812,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5656,
            "whiff_percent": 26.4,
            "swing_percent": 47.7
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.021,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0971,
            "regression_edge": 0.8857,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.1714,
            "barrel_edge": 0.2222,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.2,
            "bb_edge": 0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.036
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "642547",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 81,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 81,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.23342464094252,
              "release_spin_rate": 2302.228094715452,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 81,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.23342464094252,
                "release_spin_rate": 2302.228094715452,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.2334,
              "release_spin_rate": 2302.2281,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.036,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.2572,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1227,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9896,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0069,
          "walk_factor": 0.984,
          "homer_factor": 0.9782,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.031,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "642547",
            "espn_id": 39825,
            "player_name": "Freddy Peralta",
            "team": "TB",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 692,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 692,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 248,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 17,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 80,
              "era_value": 4.9591,
              "era_rank": 45.0,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 83,
              "l_value": 11.0,
              "l_rank": 9,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 147.0,
              "ip_rank": 47,
              "h_value": 148.0,
              "h_rank": 18,
              "er_value": 81.0,
              "er_rank": 9,
              "hr_value": 23.0,
              "hr_rank": 20,
              "bb_value": 54.0,
              "bb_rank": 25,
              "k_value": 140.0,
              "k_rank": 41,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.571428,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.3741,
              "whip_rank": 43.0,
              "war_value": -0.27,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9896,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9896,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9782,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0069,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 8,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 27,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_TB@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_TB@ATL

home

AJ Smith-Shawver

True

4.1

3.1

-3

-1

6/5

1/2

0/3

Last 10 before this game (4 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 7.132075471698113,
      "WHIP": 1.7547169811320753,
      "IP": 17.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 4,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.417,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.417,
      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0728,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0062,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9882,
      "walk_factor": 1.0351,
      "homer_factor": 1.0019,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 17.9,
      "bb_percent": 13.1,
      "woba": 0.353,
      "xwoba": 0.32,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
      "whiff_percent": 24.5
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 709,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 1.0
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "700363",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 4,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 320.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 3.75,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1321,
            "WHIP": 1.7547,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79245,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13208,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62264,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 320.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 3.75,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1321,
            "WHIP": 1.7547,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79245,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13208,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62264,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 4,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 17.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 15.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 320.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.5,
            "R": 3.5,
            "H": 5.0,
            "BB": 2.75,
            "SO": 3.75,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 21.0,
            "Pitches": 80.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.1321,
            "WHIP": 1.7547,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.79245,
            "H_per_IP": 1.13208,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.62264,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.84906,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11321
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.846,
        "predicted_H": 4.716,
        "predicted_BB": 2.184,
        "predicted_SO": 4.066,
        "predicted_HR": 0.595,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.6696,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.5271
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5847,
      "form_weight": 0.4153,
      "form_reliability": 0.4444,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4444,
        "prior_weight": 0.5556
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.2,
          "form": 4.2,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.846,
          "final": 4.1055,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.716,
          "final": 5.4668,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.184,
          "final": 1.4917,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 4.066,
          "final": 1.6884,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.595,
          "final": 0.8318,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.6696,
          "final": 5.6696,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.5271,
          "final": 1.5271,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "insufficient_data"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 17.2,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 20,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 15,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 7.132075471698114,
        "WHIP": 1.7547169811320757,
        "K9": 7.641509433962265,
        "HR9": 1.018867924528302,
        "games_pitched": 4,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 4,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 4,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.1847549884360844,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 0.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4444,
          "prior_weight": 0.5556
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.1,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 6,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 0,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "700363",
      "player_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 0.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_SO": 0.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.6667,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": -0.5667,
              "percent_delta": -0.1214,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.1,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 0.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.1,
              "after": 4.1,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.6667,
            "after": 4.1,
            "delta": -0.5667,
            "percent_delta": -0.1214,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "ATL",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 59,
        "win_pct": 0.5903,
        "runs_scored": 665.0,
        "runs_allowed": 546.0,
        "run_differential": 119.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8264,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.6181,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7917,
        "offense_index": 1.0312,
        "defense_index": 1.1811,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.4,
          "run_differential": 6.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.2133
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TB",
        "games": 143,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 58,
        "win_pct": 0.5944,
        "runs_scored": 647.0,
        "runs_allowed": 600.0,
        "run_differential": 47.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.3287,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5245,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1958,
        "offense_index": 1.0103,
        "defense_index": 1.0673,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.2,
          "run_differential": 0.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1556
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0577,
        "offense_edge": 0.0312,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0103,
        "defense_strength": 0.1811,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0673,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0073,
        "run_prevention": 0.9807,
        "strikeout": 1.0009
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "700363",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "700363",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 40.0,
            "k_percent": 17.9,
            "bb_percent": 13.1,
            "woba": 0.353,
            "xwoba": 0.32,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 29.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.3232,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.062,
            "whiff_percent": 24.5,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.226,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4836,
            "regression_edge": 0.9429,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.2571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.0444,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0,
            "whiff_edge": -0.0714,
            "bb_edge": -0.975,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.047
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "700363",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 72,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 72,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.03730434782608,
              "release_spin_rate": 1867.4026086956524,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 72,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.03730434782608,
                "release_spin_rate": 1867.4026086956524,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.0373,
              "release_spin_rate": 1867.4026,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.047,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.3356,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0728,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0062,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9882,
          "walk_factor": 1.0351,
          "homer_factor": 1.0019,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.033,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "700363",
            "espn_id": 4917640,
            "player_name": "AJ Smith-Shawver",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 709,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 709,
              "gp_value": 4.0,
              "gp_rank": 664,
              "gs_value": 4.0,
              "gs_rank": 233,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 208,
              "era_value": 7.132,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 0.0,
              "w_rank": 531,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 426,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 17.2,
              "ip_rank": 531,
              "h_value": 20.0,
              "h_rank": 512,
              "er_value": 14.0,
              "er_rank": 439,
              "hr_value": 2.0,
              "hr_rank": 515,
              "bb_value": 11.0,
              "bb_rank": 457,
              "k_value": 15.0,
              "k_rank": 530,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.6415095,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.7547,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.31,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0028,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0028,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0158,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0009,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9947,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 0,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 77,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 4 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_TB@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_TEX@SEA

away

Cal Quantrill

True

5.2

6.0

1/5

1/1

6/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 2.793103448275862,
      "WHIP": 1.0655172413793104,
      "IP": 96.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 29,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.278,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 7.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0225,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9509,
      "walk_factor": 0.938,
      "homer_factor": 0.9849,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.1,
      "woba": 0.275,
      "xwoba": 0.301,
      "barrel_percent": 7.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
      "whiff_percent": 19.8
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 104,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "615698",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 29,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 4.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 5.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 117.0,
            "Pitches": 455.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 0.8,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 23.4,
            "Pitches": 91.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 1.1613,
            "WHIP": 0.8065,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.12903,
            "H_per_IP": 0.64516,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.16129,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96774,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06452
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 50.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 39.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 45.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 200.0,
            "Pitches": 762.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 1.4,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 3.9,
            "BB": 1.1,
            "SO": 4.5,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 20.0,
            "Pitches": 76.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.5033,
            "WHIP": 0.9934,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.27815,
            "H_per_IP": 0.77483,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.21854,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89404,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.09934
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 29,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 96.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 36.0,
            "H": 79.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 73.0,
            "HR": 11.0,
            "BF": 393.0,
            "Pitches": 1494.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.0345,
            "R": 1.2414,
            "H": 2.7241,
            "BB": 0.8276,
            "SO": 2.5172,
            "HR": 0.3793,
            "BF": 13.5517,
            "Pitches": 51.5172
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 2.7931,
            "WHIP": 1.0655,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.31034,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81724,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.24828,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75517,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11379
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.38,
        "predicted_H": 4.055,
        "predicted_BB": 1.194,
        "predicted_SO": 4.822,
        "predicted_HR": 0.508,
        "predicted_ERA": 2.3313,
        "predicted_WHIP": 0.9857
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4121,
      "form_weight": 0.5879,
      "form_reliability": 0.8529,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 29.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8529,
        "prior_weight": 0.1471
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.38,
          "final": 0.8112,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.055,
          "final": 2.7959,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.194,
          "final": 1.114,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.822,
          "final": 5.3075,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.508,
          "final": 0.2986,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.3313,
          "final": 2.3313,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 0.9857,
          "final": 0.9857,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 50.1,
        "ER": 14,
        "H": 39,
        "BB": 11,
        "SO": 45,
        "HR": 5,
        "ERA": 2.503311258278146,
        "WHIP": 0.9933774834437087,
        "K9": 8.04635761589404,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
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      {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          "summary": {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 144,
        "wins": 71,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4931,
        "runs_scored": 595.0,
        "runs_allowed": 639.0,
        "run_differential": -44.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.3056,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1319,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4375,
        "offense_index": 0.9218,
        "defense_index": 1.0101,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "wins": 5,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": 3.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0434
      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 144,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 77,
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        "runs_scored": 569.0,
        "runs_allowed": 640.0,
        "run_differential": -71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4931,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9514,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4444,
        "offense_index": 0.8815,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.3,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.16
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1166,
        "offense_edge": -0.0782,
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        "defense_strength": 0.0101,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0086,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0097,
        "run_prevention": 0.9742,
        "strikeout": 1.013
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "615698",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "615698",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 310.0,
            "k_percent": 18.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.1,
            "woba": 0.275,
            "xwoba": 0.301,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.2901,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6233,
            "whiff_percent": 19.8,
            "swing_percent": 48.4
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.3234,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3236,
            "regression_edge": -0.7429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.2857,
            "barrel_edge": -0.1111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.7429,
            "bb_edge": 0.775,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0019
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "615698",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 62,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 62,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.84263114012379,
              "release_spin_rate": 1952.7640647104026,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 62,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.84263114012379,
                "release_spin_rate": 1952.7640647104026,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.8426,
              "release_spin_rate": 1952.7641,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0019,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.0135,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0225,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9981,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9509,
          "walk_factor": 0.938,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.026,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "615698",
            "espn_id": 39875,
            "player_name": "Cal Quantrill",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 104,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 104,
              "gp_value": 29.0,
              "gp_rank": 224,
              "gs_value": 12.0,
              "gs_rank": 157,
              "qs_value": 6.0,
              "qs_rank": 91,
              "era_value": 2.7931,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 7.0,
              "w_rank": 83,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 133,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 96.2,
              "ip_rank": 127,
              "h_value": 79.0,
              "h_rank": 151,
              "er_value": 30.0,
              "er_rank": 185,
              "hr_value": 11.0,
              "hr_rank": 144,
              "bb_value": 24.0,
              "bb_rank": 225,
              "k_value": 73.0,
              "k_rank": 167,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.7965517,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35,
              "whip_value": 1.0655,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.67,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9981,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.938,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9849,
            "adjusted": 0
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9509,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 1,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_TEX@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_TEX@SEA

home

Bryce Miller

True

5.2

3.2

-6

2/4

2/3

6/6

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.013513513513513,
      "WHIP": 1.114864864864865,
      "IP": 98.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.51,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3953,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9664,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0126,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 0.9498,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.303,
      "xwoba": 0.283,
      "barrel_percent": 7.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 32.7,
      "whiff_percent": 25.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 169,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "682243",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 21.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 13.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 113.0,
            "Pitches": 443.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 4.2,
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.17568,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52703,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85135,
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.0566,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39623,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77358,
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        },
        "season": {
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          "per_game": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.96284,
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      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 21,
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        "K9": 6.962264150943396,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.1591558246273146,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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        "win_pct": 0.4653,
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        "run_differential": -71.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4931,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.1185,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
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      "player_factors": {
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        "strikeout": 1.0028
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "682243",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "682243",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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          "components": {
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.8,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "682243",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 90,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 90,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.55481419586265,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 90,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.5548,
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            "components": {
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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          "quality_score": 0.3953,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Bryce Miller",
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            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 98.2,
              "ip_rank": 124,
              "h_value": 84.0,
              "h_rank": 134,
              "er_value": 44.0,
              "er_rank": 133,
              "hr_value": 17.0,
              "hr_rank": 67,
              "bb_value": 26.0,
              "bb_rank": 204,
              "k_value": 95.0,
              "k_rank": 108,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.665541,
              "k_per_9_rank": 23,
              "whip_value": 1.1148,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.12,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9664,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9664,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.946,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9498,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0126,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_TEX@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_TOR@OAK

away

José Soriano

True

5.2

7.0

4/6

2/1

6/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.519230769230769,
      "WHIP": 1.294871794871795,
      "IP": 156.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 28,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.571,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.667,
      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.04,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0034,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0326,
      "walk_factor": 1.03,
      "homer_factor": 1.0185,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.1,
      "bb_percent": 10.7,
      "woba": 0.296,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 7.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
      "whiff_percent": 29.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 35,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
        "prior_weight": 0.1515
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.1,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 31.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 123.0,
            "Pitches": 473.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 6.2,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 24.6,
            "Pitches": 94.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7647,
            "WHIP": 1.4471,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "H_per_IP": 1.09412,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35294,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.74118,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.07059
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 56.0,
            "ER": 23.0,
            "R": 25.0,
            "H": 49.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 40.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 231.0,
            "Pitches": 917.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.3,
            "R": 2.5,
            "H": 4.9,
            "BB": 2.1,
            "SO": 4.0,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 23.1,
            "Pitches": 91.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.6964,
            "WHIP": 1.25,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41071,
            "H_per_IP": 0.875,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.71429,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.03571
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 28,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 156.0,
            "ER": 61.0,
            "R": 66.0,
            "H": 132.0,
            "BB": 70.0,
            "SO": 151.0,
            "HR": 14.0,
            "BF": 654.0,
            "Pitches": 2609.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.1786,
            "R": 2.3571,
            "H": 4.7143,
            "BB": 2.5,
            "SO": 5.3929,
            "HR": 0.5,
            "BF": 23.3571,
            "Pitches": 93.1786
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.5192,
            "WHIP": 1.2949,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.39103,
            "H_per_IP": 0.84615,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44872,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.96795,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08974
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.642,
        "predicted_H": 5.489,
        "predicted_BB": 2.146,
        "predicted_SO": 4.544,
        "predicted_HR": 0.425,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.1959,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3473
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.414,
      "form_weight": 0.586,
      "form_reliability": 0.8485,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 28.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.2,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.642,
          "final": 1.9622,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.489,
          "final": 4.8725,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 2.146,
          "final": 2.0856,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.544,
          "final": 5.1468,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.425,
          "final": 0.249,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.1959,
          "final": 4.1959,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3473,
          "final": 1.3473,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 56.0,
        "ER": 23,
        "H": 49,
        "BB": 21,
        "SO": 40,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 3.6964285714285716,
        "WHIP": 1.25,
        "K9": 6.428571428571429,
        "HR9": 0.32142857142857145,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9204049823092552,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "667755",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "material": true
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
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        ],
        "summary": {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 145,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 585.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.269,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0345,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3034,
        "offense_index": 0.9001,
        "defense_index": 1.0416,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 145,
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        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 637.0,
        "runs_allowed": 824.0,
        "run_differential": -187.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2897,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3931,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6828,
        "offense_index": 0.9801,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
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          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2432
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.2773,
        "offense_edge": -0.0999,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0199,
        "defense_strength": 0.0416,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.2112,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0131,
        "run_prevention": 0.9788,
        "strikeout": 1.0099
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "667755",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "667755",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 572.0,
            "k_percent": 23.1,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.0,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.8,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.7084,
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            "whiff_percent": 29.6,
            "swing_percent": 46.7
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          },
          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.8286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
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            "whiff_edge": 0.6571,
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.1538
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "667755",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 91,
            "primary_pitch": {
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              "spin_axis": null,
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              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 91,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 92.62248350722385,
                "release_spin_rate": 2056.682557815389,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 92.6225,
              "release_spin_rate": 2056.6826,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1538,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 1.0985,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.04,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0034,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0326,
          "walk_factor": 1.03,
          "homer_factor": 1.0185,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.029,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "667755",
            "espn_id": 40973,
            "player_name": "Jose Soriano",
            "team": "TOR",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 35,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 35,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 248,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 17,
              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 56,
              "era_value": 3.5192,
              "era_rank": 22.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 21,
              "l_value": 7.0,
              "l_rank": 84,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 156.0,
              "ip_rank": 30,
              "h_value": 132.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 61.0,
              "er_rank": 60,
              "hr_value": 14.0,
              "hr_rank": 106,
              "bb_value": 70.0,
              "bb_rank": 4,
              "k_value": 151.0,
              "k_rank": 30,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.711538,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.2948,
              "whip_rank": 36.0,
              "war_value": 2.97,
              "war_rank": 1.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0034,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.03,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0185,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0326,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 97,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +1."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was +2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_TOR@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_TOR@OAK

home

Jack Perkins

True

4.0

5.0

-1

7/7

4/0

1/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 6.498305084745763,
      "WHIP": 1.535593220338983,
      "IP": 98.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 33,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.513,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.267,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.0631,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0337,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 1.0235,
      "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 25.7,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.359,
      "xwoba": 0.31,
      "barrel_percent": 8.6,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
      "whiff_percent": 27.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 849,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.792,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7983,
        "prior_weight": 0.2017
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 33,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 21.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 16.0,
            "SO": 24.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 103.0,
            "Pitches": 407.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 3.2,
            "SO": 4.8,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.6,
            "Pitches": 81.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5692,
            "WHIP": 1.8462,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50769,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10769,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.73846,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.10769,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13846
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 43.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 34.0,
            "H": 46.0,
            "BB": 26.0,
            "SO": 46.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 201.0,
            "Pitches": 791.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.6,
            "SO": 4.6,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 20.1,
            "Pitches": 79.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.1832,
            "WHIP": 1.6489,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.68702,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05344,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.59542,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.05344,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22901
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 33,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 98.1,
            "ER": 71.0,
            "R": 77.0,
            "H": 104.0,
            "BB": 47.0,
            "SO": 116.0,
            "HR": 18.0,
            "BF": 452.0,
            "Pitches": 1759.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.0,
            "ER": 2.1515,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 3.1515,
            "BB": 1.4242,
            "SO": 3.5152,
            "HR": 0.5455,
            "BF": 13.697,
            "Pitches": 53.303
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.4983,
            "WHIP": 1.5356,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72203,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05763,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.47797,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.17966,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18305
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.433,
        "predicted_H": 4.357,
        "predicted_BB": 2.402,
        "predicted_SO": 4.41,
        "predicted_HR": 0.711,
        "predicted_ERA": 5.3142,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.6404
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4352,
      "form_weight": 0.5648,
      "form_reliability": 0.7983,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 19.792,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7983,
        "prior_weight": 0.2017
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.433,
          "final": 3.5502,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.357,
          "final": 5.5073,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.402,
          "final": 3.0975,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.41,
          "final": 2.9259,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.711,
          "final": 1.272,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 5.3142,
          "final": 5.3142,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.6404,
          "final": 1.6404,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 43.2,
        "ER": 30,
        "H": 46,
        "BB": 26,
        "SO": 46,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 6.183206106870229,
        "WHIP": 1.6488549618320612,
        "K9": 9.480916030534353,
        "HR9": 2.0610687022900764,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 2,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-03T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.2101388290922432,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 4.0,
          "predicted_SO": 1.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 19.792,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7983,
          "prior_weight": 0.2017
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 4,
          "predicted_SO": 1,
          "predicted_HR": 2
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "678022",
      "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "OAK",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 4.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 1.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "OAK",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 58,
        "losses": 87,
        "win_pct": 0.4,
        "runs_scored": 637.0,
        "runs_allowed": 824.0,
        "run_differential": -187.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.2897,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.3931,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.6828,
        "offense_index": 0.9801,
        "defense_index": 0.7888,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 5,
          "losses": 5,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -1.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2432
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.4966,
        "runs_scored": 585.0,
        "runs_allowed": 624.0,
        "run_differential": -39.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.269,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0345,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3034,
        "offense_index": 0.9001,
        "defense_index": 1.0416,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 7,
          "losses": 3,
          "win_pct": 0.7,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 26.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0341
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.2773,
        "offense_edge": -0.0199,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0999,
        "defense_strength": -0.2112,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0416,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9866,
        "run_prevention": 1.019,
        "strikeout": 0.9997
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "678022",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "678022",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 379.0,
            "k_percent": 25.7,
            "bb_percent": 10.4,
            "woba": 0.359,
            "xwoba": 0.31,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.6,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8186,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.6076,
            "whiff_percent": 27.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9158,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.2826,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2879,
            "regression_edge": 1.4,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.0286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.3333,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.0571,
            "whiff_edge": 0.3143,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0808
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "678022",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 73,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 73,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 91.31862708436176,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.278752223051,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 73,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 91.31862708436176,
                "release_spin_rate": 2227.278752223051,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 91.3186,
              "release_spin_rate": 2227.2788,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0808,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.5769,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.0631,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9946,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0337,
          "walk_factor": 1.024,
          "homer_factor": 1.0235,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.049,
          "regression_flag": "positive_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "678022",
            "espn_id": 4418686,
            "player_name": "Jack Perkins",
            "team": "ATH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 849,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 849,
              "gp_value": 33.0,
              "gp_rank": 201,
              "gs_value": 13.0,
              "gs_rank": 152,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 208,
              "era_value": 6.4983,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 242,
              "l_value": 10.0,
              "l_rank": 17,
              "sv_value": 3.0,
              "sv_rank": 66,
              "hld_value": 2.0,
              "hld_rank": 227,
              "ip_value": 98.1,
              "ip_rank": 125,
              "h_value": 104.0,
              "h_rank": 110,
              "er_value": 71.0,
              "er_rank": 22,
              "hr_value": 18.0,
              "hr_rank": 53,
              "bb_value": 47.0,
              "bb_rank": 49,
              "k_value": 116.0,
              "k_rank": 76,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.616949,
              "k_per_9_rank": 16,
              "whip_value": 1.5355,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -1.21,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 0.9946,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0235,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0337,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 4,
      "predicted_SO": 1,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WALK_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Walk component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted walks was -4."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_TOR@OAK.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_WAS@SD

away

Riley Cornelio

True

3.2

3.0

-2

5/0

0/0

2/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.955882352941176,
      "WHIP": 1.8088235294117647,
      "IP": 22.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 12,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.333,
      "last_start_IP": 4.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.0488,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0041,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.019,
      "walk_factor": 1.09,
      "homer_factor": 1.0453,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 21.5,
      "bb_percent": 19.6,
      "woba": 0.339,
      "xwoba": 0.314,
      "barrel_percent": 9.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 47.6,
      "whiff_percent": 32.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 806,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.562,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4771,
        "prior_weight": 0.5229
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683000",
      "report_date": "20260908",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 12,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 8.0,
            "ER": 4.0,
            "R": 8.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 35.0,
            "Pitches": 159.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
            "ER": 0.8,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 0.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 1.2,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 7.0,
            "Pitches": 31.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5,
            "H_per_IP": 0.5,
            "BB_per_IP": 1.0,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.125
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 18.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 16.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 21.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 84.0,
            "Pitches": 371.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.2,
            "R": 1.6,
            "H": 1.6,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 2.1,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 8.4,
            "Pitches": 37.1
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.7857,
            "WHIP": 1.6071,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.64286,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85714,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.75,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.125,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10714
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 12,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 20.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 107.0,
            "Pitches": 457.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 1.25,
            "R": 1.6667,
            "H": 1.6667,
            "BB": 1.75,
            "SO": 1.9167,
            "HR": 0.1667,
            "BF": 8.9167,
            "Pitches": 38.0833
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9559,
            "WHIP": 1.8088,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66176,
            "H_per_IP": 0.88235,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.92647,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.01471,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08824
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.1,
        "predicted_ER": 1.886,
        "predicted_H": 2.95,
        "predicted_BB": 2.178,
        "predicted_SO": 3.278,
        "predicted_HR": 0.454,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8535,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.4664
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.5709,
      "form_weight": 0.4291,
      "form_reliability": 0.4771,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 4.562,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.4771,
        "prior_weight": 0.5229
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 3.1,
          "final": 4.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.886,
          "final": 1.9511,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.95,
          "final": 4.1204,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 2.178,
          "final": 0.9345,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 3.278,
          "final": 2.5484,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 0.454,
          "final": 1.9076,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8535,
          "final": 4.8535,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.4664,
          "final": 1.4664,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 18.2,
        "ER": 12,
        "H": 16,
        "BB": 14,
        "SO": 21,
        "HR": 2,
        "ERA": 5.7857142857142865,
        "WHIP": 1.6071428571428574,
        "K9": 10.125000000000002,
        "HR9": 0.9642857142857144,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": true
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.100423782772902,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
          "predicted_SO": 2.0,
          "predicted_HR": 3.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 4.562,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.4771,
          "prior_weight": 0.5229
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 3.2,
          "predicted_ER": 2,
          "predicted_H": 5,
          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 2,
          "predicted_HR": 3
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683000",
      "player_name": "Riley Cornelio",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "WAS",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 2.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 3.0,
            "predicted_IP": 3.2,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
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      "team": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "pitcher_id": "683000",
        "profile": {
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          "pitcher_id": "683000",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.0067
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683000",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 31,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 31,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
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              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
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                "pitches": 31,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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            ],
            "summary": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.0488,
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          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0041,
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            "player_name": "Riley Cornelio",
            "team": "WSH",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 806,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
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              "gp_value": 12.0,
              "gp_rank": 493,
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              "w_rank": 311,
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              "l_rank": 325,
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              "k_per_9_value": 9.132353,
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              "whip_value": 1.8088,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.64,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 1.0018,
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          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
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            "factor": 1.0405,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
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      "Pitches": 71,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 5",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -5."
    },
    {
      "code": "HOMER_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Home-run component missed",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted home runs was -2."
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  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_WAS@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260908

20260908_WAS@SD

home

Casey Mize

True

5.0

5.2

2/4

3/1

4/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

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      "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
      "whiff_percent": 23.9
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    "starter_workload_floor": null,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.59155,
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        },
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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        "predicted_H": 4.791,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "final": 1.4174,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 4.791,
          "final": 3.5958,
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.5241,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
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          "final": 1.2555,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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      "pitching": {
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-02T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 1.0679129324071026,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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          ],
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
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        "win_pct": 0.5278,
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        "run_differential": 9.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0625,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2014,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": -8.0
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 146,
        "wins": 67,
        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4589,
        "runs_scored": 750.0,
        "runs_allowed": 742.0,
        "run_differential": 8.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0548,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.137,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0822,
        "offense_index": 1.146,
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        "current_streak": "L5",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0,
          "run_differential": -4.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0595,
        "offense_edge": -0.0627,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.999,
        "run_prevention": 1.0121,
        "strikeout": 0.9901
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663554",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663554",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 406.0,
            "k_percent": 21.6,
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            "woba": 0.293,
            "xwoba": 0.288,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.7,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 8.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.3,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1467,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8959,
            "whiff_percent": 23.9,
            "swing_percent": 48.2
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.61,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.2744,
            "command_and_miss": 0.0793,
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            "xwoba_edge": 0.6571,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0571,
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            "bb_edge": 0.8,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663554",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 82,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 82,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04851401520826,
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              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 82,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04851401520826,
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                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0485,
              "release_spin_rate": 2095.7744,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0096,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
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            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1894,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
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          "homer_factor": 1.0003,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_name": "Casey Mize",
            "team": "SD",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 84,
            "espn_total_ranked": 858,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 84,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
              "gp_rank": 360,
              "gs_value": 22.0,
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              "qs_value": 10.0,
              "qs_rank": 56,
              "era_value": 3.6422,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 143,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 28,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 248,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 350,
              "ip_value": 113.2,
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              "h_value": 99.0,
              "h_rank": 117,
              "er_value": 46.0,
              "er_rank": 122,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 120,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 183,
              "k_value": 100.0,
              "k_rank": 99,
              "k_per_9_value": 7.917888,
              "k_per_9_rank": 25,
              "whip_value": 1.1173,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.89,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9839,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 0,
      "predicted_ER": 0,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260908_WAS@SD.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}